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151. The Factors That Matter: A Formula for Understanding China’s Use of Force Calculus Over Taiwan

Author:
Lyle Morris
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As the United States and China enter a prolonged period of instability and tension, how and under what circumstances China may use force, or, alternatively, be deterred from using force, has become of crucial importance to U.S. policymakers seeking to avoid conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). While the United States can draw on its experience gauging threats and making difficult strategic calculations during the Cold War rivalry with the Soviet Union, the emerging strategic rivalry with China is still in its early stages. The question of how to deter conflict with the PRC will be an increasingly important factor in the strategic calculations in Beijing and Washington, especially in times of heightened instability and crisis between the two powers. This, in turn, raises enormous and complex questions for U.S. policy regarding U.S.-China strategic stability, U.S.-China crisis management, and strategic and conventional deterrence vis-à-vis China. In spite of this emergent challenge, critical gaps remain in the Western understanding of PRC deterrence concepts. Most importantly, and most urgently, there is little understanding of how or why China may be deterred from resorting to military force in the event of a serious confrontation with the United States. To address these critical gaps, this paper explores China’s approach to deterrence in the military and diplomatic domain, in order to inform U.S. understanding of how it might deter China in a crisis or conflict. In particular, this paper introduces a set of key variables that matter most to China’s leadership in contemplating using force to “reunify” Taiwan with mainland China. This study develops a methodological formula that can be used by policy-makers and academics interested in understanding what has deterred Chinese leaders from using force against Taiwan, and what might cause China to change its calculus.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Affairs, Deterrence, Regional Security, and Use of Force
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

152. From Growth to Visibility: Bureaucratic Incentives After China's Cadre Evaluation Reforms

Author:
Zhuoran Li
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
President Xi Jinping has spent more than a decade trying to reform the incentive system of China's bureaucracy, especially the incentives for local governments. Xi launched sweeping reforms of the cadre evaluation system—reducing the emphasis on GDP growth, expanding performance assessments to include social welfare and environmental protection metrics, and strengthening inspections of policy implementation. These reforms were intended to shift bureaucratic incentives away from short-term political performance and toward more balanced governance. Yet a different pattern has emerged. Local governments, especially at the level of township and county, have increasingly devoted resources to highly visible "spotlight projects" (亮点工程) designed to attract the attention of higher-level leaders in municipalities and provinces. This outcome is not a failure of implementation but an unintended consequence of Xi's reforms. By broadening evaluation criteria while tightening fiscal and administrative constraints, the reforms changed how local officials compete for promotion. Instead of maximizing GDP growth, officials increasingly compete by producing politically visible success stories that signal competence and alignment with central priorities. Because these projects also enhance the political standing of provincial and municipal leaders, they are reinforced by complementary incentives at multiple levels of the bureaucracy. The result is not the disappearance of performative governance, but its transformation.
Topic:
Governance, Rural, Economic Development, Bureaucracy, and Local Government
Political Geography:
China and Asia

153. Europe’s “Wake-Up Call”

Author:
Philippe Le Corre
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The European Union's relationship with China is undergoing a transformation. While the EU remains committed to economic engagement, it is increasingly prioritizing economic security, industrial resilience, and technological sovereignty over market access. This shift reflects mounting concerns over widening trade imbalances, China's state-supported industrial expansion, growing dependence on Chinese critical minerals and green technologies, and the erosion of Europe's manufacturing base. This paper argues that the EU and China will go through a very tense period over trade, but that Europe’s lasting competitiveness will depend on addressing structural challenges—including productivity, innovation, energy costs, investment, and industrial coordination—that predate the current deterioration in EU-China relations. Ultimately, China's growing economic influence has become not only an external challenge but a catalyst for Europe's reassessment of its own economic model and long-term industrial strategy.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Innovation, Trade, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Asia

154. Strategic Shift in China's Primary Aluminum Industry

Author:
Landon Thomas
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In late 2024, the Chinese government surprised global markets by rescinding export tax rebates for steel, copper, and – most notably – aluminum products. Seen by many as a proactive step to diffuse trade tensions with its major trading partners, this paper argues that the policy speaks to a broader strategy on the part of the Chinese government. Namely, to incentivize aluminum producers to focus less on exports and more on supplying fast growing sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, both of which rely heavily on aluminum inputs. Although aluminum exports have declined modestly since the policy’s implementation, it remains unclear whether increased domestic absorption will ultimately translate into greater productivity and efficiency gains across the sector.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Economy, Tax Systems, Trade Policy, Industry, and Aluminum
Political Geography:
China and Asia

155. Implementing Effective U.S.-China Economic Engagement Channels

Author:
Brendan Kelly and Scott Shaw
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
As the state of U.S.-China relations has undergone significant fluctuations over the past decade, so has the structure and frequency of economic engagements between the two countries. The number and scale of such dialogues came under heavy criticism from Republican and Democratic China hawks alike—with one notable critic famously tying the rise of U.S.-China dialogues to the rise of the U.S. trade deficit with China. Some of this criticism misses the mark, however, and underestimates the value of select, well-conceived communication channels. A valid question is whether these dialogues lost the forest for the trees. U.S. officials consistently struggled to move the needle on big trade and investment issues, absent large carrots and sticks, such as WTO accession or significant tariffs. The U.S. government needs to exercise discipline in ensuring that dialogue mechanisms advance U.S. national interests and are not used by China to distract from or delay meaningful progress on core issues. Washington must also be clear-eyed that such dialogues or engagements will likely not “change China” or spur big policy and structural changes. Yet it is equally problematic that from the early stages of the pandemic in 2020 through mid-2023, the governments of the world’s two largest economies, with the world’s most complex trading relationship, had almost no engagement on economic and commercial issues. Just as national security experts emphasize the importance of U.S.-China military-to-military communications to mitigate misunderstandings and security crises, sustained channels for commercial and financial dialogues are critical for managing economic frictions. It is therefore remarkable that for multiple years the two sides lacked any such mechanisms to address commercial, financial and other economic issues. In its last year and a half, the Biden administration broadly addressed these areas through its Economic, Financial and Commercial Issues Working Groups, alongside technical consultations on issues such as export control enforcement, trade secrets, and anti-money laundering. These channels, with select cabinet-level meetings, enabled the U.S. to pursue “competitive actions”—such as export controls, tariffs, and sanctions—while maintaining a largely stable relationship. The Biden administration struggled, however, to make significant progress on the broader obstacles facing U.S. firms and exports in China, even as it was able to resolve certain company-specific issues and defuse some tensions arising from policy misunderstandings. After a sharp deterioration in bilateral economic ties in spring 2025—with tariffs essentially reaching trade embargo levels and export controls shutting down production lines in each economy—the second Trump administration has arrived at a tentative equilibrium with China on trade and technology issues. The Trump administration has an opportunity to strengthen this equilibrium, mitigate volatility, and advance U.S. interests by rebuilding and institutionalizing selective channels on key economic and technology issues. The goal should not be to return to the previous broad dialogue architecture, but rather to establish narrow mechanisms that support U.S. de-risking, reinforce policy discipline, and, with modest expectations, derive economic benefits for the U.S. from the relationship. Cabinet-level relationships with China’s top economic decisionmakers—that also address bureaucratic mismatches and silos in the two systems—are of utmost importance as the leadership dynamics and policy agendas of both governments continue to evolve. Communication mechanisms on macroeconomic, financial sector, and commercial issues have been essential—and as economic and national security issues have moved to the foreground, channels to discuss sanctions, export controls, and investment issues have become necessary as well. The Boards of Trade and Investment proposed by the two governments in recent discussions could serve as an organizing structure for most of these channels, depending on their participants and agenda. This paper reviews the historical evolution of U.S.-China economic dialogues and the key lessons learned—to suggest targeted areas where ongoing communications under these mechanisms can be most important, how these should be structured, and how to make U.S. economic statecraft toward China most effective. We appreciate the insightful inputs and comments on the paper from Craig Allen, Wendy Cutler and Paul Haenle.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Macroeconomics, Trade, Donald Trump, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

156. National Security Without Consensus: Taiwan’s Domestic Politics Through 2028

Author:
Simona Grano
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In the past year, President Lai Ching-te’s administration has faced growing domestic political fragmentation alongside intensifying external pressure. Lai’s announcement of a substantial increase in Taiwan’s defense budget, including discussion of enhanced missile defense capabilities, was blocked repeatedly in the Legislative Yuan by the Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), highlighting deep divisions over security policy and relations with China. At the end of March 2026, Taiwan’s ruling and opposition parties finally agreed to allow the special defense budget to enter legislative review, though each party presented its own version.1 Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan finally passed a watered-down version of the special defense budget bill on May 8. While many observers frame expanded defense spending as a necessary response to rising external threats, resistance by the opposition reflects a set of politically salient concerns. Among segments of the electorate aligned with the KMT, skepticism persists regarding the effectiveness of increased spending in altering the cross-Strait military balance, frustration over the prolonged freeze in official dialogue with Beijing, and uncertainty linked to U.S. policy — ranging from delays in arms deliveries to broader questions surrounding strategic ambiguity and economic-security trade-offs. In this complicated context, President Lai launched a series of “Ten Talks” from June to August 2025, hoping to use national unity, defense, and identity to build public support for a more robust defense posture. However, rising parliamentary fragmentation and partisan polarization, heightened by the KMT’s shift in leadership and the election of Cheng Li-wun, have so far undercut the government’s ability to finance and implement major defense initiatives (including the proposed multi-layer T-Dome). Such domestic dynamics will play a central role in influencing Taiwan’s domestic and external strategy from now until the 2028 elections. Against this backdrop, the People’s Liberation Army decided to launch a large-scale joint exercise “Justice Mission–2025” on December 29, 2025, mobilizing forces and encircling Taiwan in one of the most wide-ranging displays of force so far employed by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The drills took place in the aftermath of Trump’s decision to allow a major arms sale to Taiwan and after the explicit Japanese statements linking a Taiwan contingency to Japan’s own security and survival. Beijing views such developments as external “intrusions” into internal matters with the potential to accelerate the ‘internationalization’ of the Taiwan issue. Together, these dynamics illustrate how China’s growing reliance on military pressure overlaps with Taiwan’s internal political constraints, reinforcing Beijing’s narrative that China’s military pressure is necessary and justified (in view of the external developments), while simultaneously undermining its claim that Taiwan remains a purely internal matter. This paper argues that Taiwan’s greatest security risk has shifted from threat awareness to political coordination, with domestic fragmentation now constituting the primary bottleneck to defense and security policies ahead of 2028.
Topic:
Defense Policy, National Security, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and Asia

157. Seeking Agency in Uncertainty: Asian Middle Powers and the Fragmenting Global Order

Author:
Farwa Aamer and Emma Chanlett-Avery
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The concept of middle powers is not new. What is new, however, is the speed, coordination, and strategic intent with which middle powers, across Asia and the West, are recalibrating their foreign policies. This acceleration reflects growing uncertainty in the global system: the perceived drift and unpredictability of U.S. leadership under the Trump 2.0 administration, intensifying strategic competition between the United States and China, and the fragmentation of the post–Cold War order. Countries increasingly find themselves navigating between two systemic pressures: avoiding entrapment in great power rivalries and safeguarding national autonomy, economic resilience, and security interests. In this emerging order, resistant to simple bipolar or multipolar labels, middle powers are neither passive balancers nor quiet bystanders. They are actively constructing a dense network of partnerships, pursuing selective alignments, and diversifying strategic dependencies. Rather than choosing sides, many are hedging to secure national interests: deepening security ties with Washington while sustaining economic engagement with Beijing, expanding mini-lateral frameworks, and strengthening cross-regional linkages that reduce overreliance on any single pole of power. The growing emphasis on economic security, supply chain resilience, technological cooperation, and defense interoperability reflects a broader shift from ideological alignment to pragmatic, interest-driven statecraft. This paper revisits the concept of Asian middle power diplomacy and assesses the forces driving today’s intensified hedging behavior. It examines why urgency around partnerships and alliance diversification has increased, not only among key Asian middle powers themselves but also in their expanding engagement with actors such as the Gulf states, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Through select country-by-country analysis, the paper evaluates how leading middle powers, in both Asia and beyond, are redefining strategic autonomy, which partnerships warrant close attention, and how these evolving alignments are reshaping the contours of the global order. Finally, it assesses the implications of a more assertive, networked middle power landscape for the United States, and what a strengthened middle power layering means for the future architecture of international politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Engagement, International Order, Hedging, and Middle Powers
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

158. Positioning the KMT in the U.S.–China–Taiwan Triangle: Cheng Li-wun’s Early Tenure

Author:
Meghan Morris and Sheng-wen Cheng
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In March 2026, Kuomintang (KMT) chair Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) accepted an invitation from Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit China from April 7–12—the first such visit by a sitting KMT chair since 2016. The visit presents both challenges and opportunities for Cheng, who is seeking greater dialogue and stability with China. It also comes just weeks before a scheduled major summit between President Trump and Xi in May and introduces new variables for all three leaders. For Xi, the symbolism of him and Cheng possibly meeting face-to-face to “mend fences” could portray an image of cross-Strait unity that could strengthen Xi’s hand in discussions with Trump. For Cheng, a successful China trip could bolster her political standing among the KMT base in Taiwan, but could also alienate opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) voters and swing voters, who may view Cheng as “selling out” Taiwan’s sovereignty in pursuit of easing tensions with mainland China. Finally, for Trump, the visit could complicate Washington’s relations with China. Trump will have to walk an even more delicate tightrope of signaling the United States’ enduring “One China” policy with Xi, while responding to the inevitable message from Xi that cross-Straits are “stabilizing” and that the United States should not intervene in the “internal matters of China.” Given this context, this paper seeks to examine the rise of Cheng Li-wun in Taiwanese politics and implications for her domestic, international, and cross-Strait agenda. We argue that while Cheng’s victory as KMT chair signals symbolic change, it has yet to translate into institutional renewal or political legitimacy. Her early appointments of KMT vice chairs suggest continuity rather than transformation—raising questions about whether the KMT is broadening or narrowing appeal within a younger electoral base. It also contends that Cheng’s rhetoric on China and the United States—calling for deeper alignment and accommodation with Beijing while simultaneously casting doubt on the value of Taiwan’s security ties with Washington—positions Cheng to potentially alter the trajectory of cross-Strait ties if the KMT achieves a majority victory in the 2028 presidential elections.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, and United States of America

159. China’s Property Rebalancing: The Long Road to a New Development Model

Author:
Lizzi C. Lee and David Zhang
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China’s property downturn is now in its fifth year, impairing household, developer, and local government balance sheets. Since peaking in 2021, property investment has nearly halved, dragging on fixed-asset investment, weakening related employment, and exerting a sustained drag on broader economic growth. Beijing’s response has prioritized risk containment over a return to debt-fueled property stimulus. This is captured by the “new property development model,” a long-term blueprint to turn real estate from a growth engine into a source of baseline construction demand and a more socially oriented housing system. Policymakers are currently trapped in a “dual mandate”: stabilizing the property market in the short term while pursuing a longer-term shift toward a smaller, less speculative, and more affordable housing system. In the near term, however, falling property values erode household wealth and weaken confidence, complicating Beijing’s broader consumption-rebalancing goals. The structural transition is complicated by local fiscal constraints. Revenue from selling land-use rights dropped by over 50% between 2021 and 2025, yet local governments face financial obligations to subsidize housing demand and fund the construction of new affordable housing. The most probable trajectory is a tightly managed, prolonged correction, with a true market bottom deferred. As the sector structurally downsizes, its drag on GDP should gradually fade, a cost Beijing likely sees as worth bearing in order to lock in a smaller role for property in the economy. The economy faces the severe downside risk of a deflationary spiral driven by wealth and job destruction. Further declines in home prices would deepen the hit to household balance sheets, while the property downturn is already inflicting significant job losses across construction and related sectors. China’s current transition blueprint lacks mechanisms to fully absorb this structural unemployment and balance-sheet degradation. Any definitive signs of an uncontrolled deflationary spiral would likely force Beijing to deploy stronger market rescue operations.
Topic:
Development, Government, Economy, Investment, Unemployment, and Property Market
Political Geography:
China and Asia

160. China’s Strategy in the Ukraine War and the Shaping of a Post-Conflict Order

Author:
Pierre Andrieu
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Despite ongoing peace talks spearheaded by U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues with seemingly no end in sight. While China might not play a primary role in peace negotiations, it nonetheless has an important stake in the outcome of the conflict. This paper seeks to assess Beijing’s calculus and potential role in brokering peace in the Ukraine conflict within the context of great power diplomacy among Moscow, Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels. Faced with Russia’s unrelenting military campaign, Washington, Brussels and Beijing have each adopted distinct positions on the war. The United States, as the key peace broker, continues to shift its policies to accommodate competing peace deal demands from Kyiv and Moscow. Meanwhile, the EU is increasingly aligning itself with Ukraine’s position, while China promotes neutral diplomatic initiatives that merely amplify a pro-Russian stance. Because China’s initiatives largely align with Russia’s position on the war, they have done little to realistically support ceasefire efforts. Rather, they are designed to portray Beijing as a principled international actor committed to peace and non-escalation. At the same time, these positions have not prevented China from establishing significant and highly pragmatic relations with Kyiv, particularly in trade and commerce. Politically, however, China’s stance has distanced Beijing from Kyiv’s key objectives regarding the terms and conditions of a ceasefire. Accordingly, this article seeks to answer the following questions: What are China’s intentions toward Ukraine amid an ongoing stalemate in peace negotiations? And how are China’s diplomatic proposals being received in capitals around the world?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Negotiation, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia

161. Unpacking China’s 2025 Retail Data: Provincial Divergence and Three Structural Challenges

Author:
Lizzi C. Lee, Huiyan Li, and Shengyu Wang
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Despite overall lackluster growth, China’s 2025 retail data shows signs of a structural shift, a redistribution of domestic demand from the coastal to central and western regions, and from first-tier to lower-tier cities. Demographic structure and migration patterns shape consumption. Provinces with balanced age profiles and slower aging outperform other provinces, underscoring the role of demographic vitality in sustaining demand. Consumption upgrading is diffusing geographically but remains uneven. Higher-quality consumption and domestic brand strength are spreading beyond top-tier cities, yet purchasing power and innovation capacity remain concentrated in coastal hubs. Household income growth is a necessary foundation for stronger consumption, but not sufficient. The Beijing case — rising incomes alongside falling retail sales — shows how wealth effects can break the income-to-consumption link. The property sector remains the central structural drag. Although price declines have moderated in some regions, weak transaction volumes and uneven recovery sustain negative wealth effects. Local initiative and bureaucratic KPI design will shape the outcome. Subnational experimentation has generated promising cases for stimulating demand, but durable rebalancing depends on incentive reform. Rigid outcome-based targets risk distorting behavior and undermining the very reforms they seek to advance. A more household-driven growth model could gradually reduce export dependence and ease trade pressures. Yet current progress is limited and uneven. Core structural imbalances remain unresolved.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, Retail, Consumer Behavior, Income, and Property Market
Political Geography:
China and Asia

162. Guided Autonomy: America Watching in Xi’s China

Author:
Guoguang Wu
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
U.S.–China relations have undergone significant changes in the past decade, moving from deep interdependence to strategic rivalry, and, meanwhile, China’s policy toward the United States has transformed under Xi Jinping. China’s policymaking mechanism has also evolved, and understanding this shift is critical to understanding the broader U.S.–China relationship. This article examines China’s U.S. policymaking and policy consultation system under Xi Jinping. How does policy consultation on foreign relations work in China? What are the most influential policy research institutions in China's America watch? How do they influence China's U.S. policy?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Xi Jinping, Strategic Competition, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

163. The Gen Z Movement and the Future of Nepa2026l

Author:
Rishi Gupta
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Nepal is scheduled to hold snap elections on March 5, 2026, to elect members of the House of Representatives—the lower house of parliament —which will culminate in a new administration and a new Prime Minister. As election day draws closer, the country is experiencing a monumental challenge: choosing between a new generation of Nepalese politicians and an old guard that is seeking reelection. The forthcoming elections are certain to test Nepal’s 17-year-long democratic journey and could pave the way for a “New Nepal” grounded in the aspirations of the country’s youth. In September 2025, Nepal attracted global attention when the nation’s Generation Z population united to protest a government-imposed social media ban—a move that was widely viewed as an attack on freedom of expression, a disruption of free and open communication, and a threat to young people’s main source of financial earnings through online content creation. Besides the implications for digital connection, the ban brought to the fore larger frustrations among Nepalese youth with rampant nepotism, corruption, unemployment, and political instability in the country. As the protests gained strength, so did the Gen Z movement’s push for change, culminating in the resignation of Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli. These developments proved significant, as nowhere in the world had a social media ban prompted the fall of an elected government before. This paper unpacks Nepal’s historic Gen Z movement by understanding and assessing its drivers and their implications. It also provides a nuanced understanding of the movement’s contributions to Nepal’s relations with neighboring India and China. As a way forward, the paper presents several post-election scenarios and identifies four key challenges facing Nepal’s next government.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Social Media, Protests, and Generation Z
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Nepal

164. AI Ambitions in a Thirsty Region: Water, Data Centers, and South Asia’s Digital Future

Author:
Farwa Aamer
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
South Asia’s push into artificial intelligence (AI) comes with both promise and pressure. In a region already facing chronic water stress, the rapid technological expansion and the rise of AI data centers risk adding new strain to limited resources if growth is not carefully managed. The challenge for South Asia is not whether to pursue AI-led development, but how to do so in a way that is sustainable over the long term. This paper argues that water must be treated as a central consideration in digital infrastructure planning. Practical steps are well within reach: adopting more water-efficient cooling technologies, siting data centers with local water conditions in mind, and better aligning energy and water policies to reduce overall resource use. At the same time, stronger regional cooperation on shared water systems and more meaningful engagement with local communities will all be essential to avoiding competition and conflict and ensuring more equitable outcomes. There is also an opportunity embedded in this challenge. AI itself can help improve water management, strengthen climate resilience, and support more efficient agricultural practices. With the right approach, technological advancement and environmental sustainability can reinforce, rather than undermine, one another.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Natural Resources, Water, Artificial Intelligence, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
South Asia and Southeast Asia

165. What Happened at China's Two Sessions in 2026?2026

Author:
Neil Thomas, Lizzi C. Lee, and Lyle Morris
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
Last week, Beijing wrapped up its annual Two Sessions — the parallel meetings of China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), and its top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). Highlights of this year’s gathering included Premier Li Qiang’s Government Work Report, several closely watched appearances by President Xi Jinping, the removal of several officials from civilian posts and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ahead of the meeting, and the release of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), a blueprint for the country’s development from 2026 to 2030. Below, experts from the Center for China Analysis (CCA) assess the key takeaways across several issue areas. Last week, CCA also co-hosted a webinar on the Two Sessions with the South China Morning Post featuring Lizzi C. Lee, Lyle Morris, and Neil Thomas.
Topic:
Government, Domestic Politics, Xi Jinping, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

166. From the old world to the new: Why German rearmament matters for Australia

Author:
Carl Janz
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
When then chancellor of Germany Olaf Scholz delivered the famous Zeitenwende (epochal shift) speech outlining the urgent need for change in defence and security policy as a response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, he presided over a military that reportedly struggled to participate in even basic NATO operations. Today by contrast, Germany is the world’s fourth largest military spender and has committed to military and industrial uplift with zeal. This ASPI Explainer explores the factors driving Germany’s rearmament, its implications for Australia, potential barriers to implementation, and transferable takeaways. It concludes that Germany’s rearmament efforts are set to make the country an increasingly valuable global partner for Australia as the two countries pursue a Status of Forces Agreement. If successfully executed in tandem with its European partners, German rearmament will help establish an increasingly independent European liberal-democratic pole in global politics and will allow the United States to increase its focus on the Indo-Pacific. These developments support Australian interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Russia-Ukraine War, and Rearmament
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Germany, Australia, and United States of America

167. The EU-Australia security and defence agreement: not a pact but a partnership

Author:
Bart Hogeveen
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
On 24 March 2026, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed the EU-Australia Security and Defence Partnership. The partnership represents a significant step in EU–Australia relations, elevating cooperation beyond its traditional focus on trade and investment. However, as with previous EU-Australia initiatives, its value will ultimately depend on whether it delivers concrete outcomes rather than remaining a largely declaratory framework. This Explainer describes what the partnership entails and highlights what it needs to become successful and impactful.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Partnerships, Cybersecurity, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe, Australia, and Asia-Pacific

168. The Degradation of Iran’s Proxy Model

Author:
Lina Khatib
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
For decades, Iran pursued a strategy of “exporting the revolution” through the sponsorship of armed non-state actors across the Middle East. Framed as an “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States, this network enabled Tehran to project influence across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Gaza while limiting the risk of direct Iranian confrontation. This paper argues that the model has entered a phase of structural degradation. The October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, together with the regional fallout that followed, accelerated the military, financial, and political weakening of Iran’s proxy architecture, contributing to a broader shift in the regional balance of power. Although Iran’s proxy system was already under pressure before October 2023 from sanctions, military attrition, and mounting isolation, these factors had not produced a decisive strategic shift. Iran sustained its influence through coercive networks. After October 7, however, these vulnerabilities deepened. Military pressure, intelligence penetration, leadership losses, financial constriction, and declining legitimacy exposed the limits of proxy-based power projection. Rather than serving as a coherent deterrent architecture, Iran’s regional network increasingly became a source of strategic exposure and fragility. The paper traces this erosion across Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, with Syria serving as an important logistical backdrop. In Lebanon, Hezbollah suffered military attrition, leadership losses, declining domestic legitimacy, and the collapse of the Syrian corridor that had underpinned its strategic depth. In Yemen, the Houthis’ effort to raise their regional profile through attacks linked to the Gaza war exposed the limits of their capacity and increased their diplomatic and financial vulnerability. In Iraq, Iran-backed militias became more fragmented, with factions diverging in their responses to escalation and with many increasingly prioritizing local political and economic survival over coordinated service to Tehran’s agenda. Across these arenas, the paper finds not adaptation but erosion: Iran’s proxies have become less effective and harder for Tehran to instrumentalize coherently. Proxy warfare once offered Tehran a means of deterrence and influence. Over time, however, it generated familiar problems of overextension: weakened cohesion, divergent local interests, coordination failures, reputational damage, and growing vulnerability to disruption. Expansion produced scale, but not resilience. The paper concludes that the Middle East is moving away from a hybrid order shaped by Iranian-backed militias toward a more state-centered, though still fragile, security landscape. This shift may create openings for states to reclaim authority and rebuild institutions less constrained by Iranian coercive influence, but it also carries serious risks, including militia fragmentation, local instability, and new security vacuums. Whether this transition produces greater stability will depend on stronger state capacity, better governance, and sustained political and economic recovery.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Deterrence, Proxy Groups, Regional Politics, and Axis of Resistance
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria

169. Move Fast and Scale: A Brief Insiders' History of the Replicator Initiative

Author:
Kathleen Hicks and Aaron Sherman
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks and former Speechwriter to the Deputy Secretary of Defense Aaron Sherman provide an insider account of the Replicator Initiative, tracing its origins, purpose, early implementation, and preliminary outcomes. This initiative to rapidly scale needed military capabilities offers important lessons for reform, from goal-setting and aligning incentives to implementation, feedback, and iteration.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Government, Military Affairs, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

170. Military Sahel regimes challenged by EU-based diaspora

Author:
Lotte Pelckmans
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
As military governments in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger tighten their grip on power, political opposition is increasingly moving beyond the Sahel’s borders. This DIIS Working Paper examines how West African diasporas in France and Belgium challenge the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and how movements such as the Alliance des Démocrates du Sahel (ADS) are taking high political risks from exile. The paper analyses what this means for sovereignty, authoritarianism and Europe’s relationship with the changing Sahel.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Diaspora, European Union, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

171. Selling the Risks: Lessons on Security Modernization from Canada’s Contract Security Program

Author:
Oliver Jones, Karena Kyne, and Alexandre Picard
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Modernization, a watchword in governance and public administration, is an imperative for security organizations that need to adapt their outlooks and processes to an increasingly unsettled world. Yet rigid processes obstruct modernization.
Topic:
Security, Governance, Modernization, and Public Administration
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

172. Intra-urban waterscapes and household welfare in Kumasi, Ghana

Author:
Abel Gwaindepi and Samuel Baidoo
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Across Kumasi, Ghana, households rarely rely on a single water source. Whether or not a home has a formal utility connection, most residents also use sachet water, boreholes, and private vendors - a hybrid system built out of necessity. This is the picture that emerges from an original household survey of 1,791 homes across three neighbourhoods in metropolitan Kumasi, Asawase, Ejisu, and Ayuom, conducted as part of the Multiple Waterscapes in Urban Ghana (MUWUG) project. The survey reveals a striking pattern: the one community with a formal utility connection to the Ghana Water Company Limited (GWCL), Asawase, reports lower satisfaction, more water related conflict, and measurable income losses than the two unconnected neighbourhoods, which get by largely on self organised alternatives. The policy implications are significant. Formal and informal water systems both matter, and connection status alone is a poor proxy for welfare. What ultimately matters is whether the water reaching households is reliable, affordable and safe. Universal access remains a legitimate goal, and citizens are right to demand formal connections. However, the evidence suggests that in rapidly growing cities, where government and NGO resources are often constrained, policy should be grounded in urban realities. This means recognising and building on the hybrid water systems that households already rely on, rather than treating them as fragmentation to be engineered away.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, Cities, and Household
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

173. Denmark’s efforts to fight torture and corruption abroad

Author:
Ole Therkildsen and David Lyndorff Paris
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper investigates Denmark's efforts to combat torture and corruption in a dozen partner countries between 2000 and 2023. The analytical framework used distinguishes different types of torture and corruption and their often hidden features and interlinkages. However, both abuses are rooted in their political economies and governance failures. Drawing mainly on official documents, evaluations and international research, the main findings are that both scourges remain persistent and widespread across partner countries; that Denmark has been especially active in UN norm-setting against torture; that links between international norm-work and implementation on the ground are weak in both the bilateral and international activities that are supported; and that impacts are hard to assess because few independent evaluations of impact exist, including in relevant NGO work. Local ownership is essential in fighting the two abuses, as aid achieves little on its own. This is where improvements to Danish approaches to fighting torture and corruption can reduce the current gap between Danish self-perceptions and realities on the ground.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Corruption, Development, and Torture
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

174. Sweden’s vaccine diplomacy, procurement and distribution

Author:
Rachel Irwin
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper analyses how Sweden worked to procure Covid-19 vaccines to cover the needs of Swedish residents, as well as how Sweden engaged in the global pandemic response and efforts to ensure global vaccine distribution. The paper also examines how tensions between national health security and international solidarity were navigated in public discourse during the pandemic.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Public Health, Vaccine, COVID-19, and Vaccine Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

175. Hawks remain hawks, and doves remain doves

Author:
Hans Mouritzen
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This DIIS Working Paper analyses convergences and divergences in Nordic countries’ relations with Russia since the Cold War. It then reflects on the main determinants behind European states’ Russia policies: their location in relation to Russia and their historical experiences with Russia Since these determinants are ultrastable, the hawks remain hawks and the doves remain doves, and some stay in-between.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and History
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Eurasia

176. From Reform to Credibility: Rethinking How Policy Shapes Investment in Africa

Author:
Chukwuka Onyekwena and Adedeji Adeniran
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This paper examines how policy reforms influence investment, emphasising the role of policy credibility. Using panel data for African economies, the results confirm that improvements in the policy environment are associated with higher investment. However, these effects are gradual and shaped by persistence in investment behaviour, reflecting the forward-looking nature of capital decisions. The key finding is that the effectiveness of reforms depends on their credibility. Sustained reforms over time generate stronger investment responses, while those subject to reversal or volatility have weaker effects. Policy stability does not independently drive investment; rather, it shapes how reforms are interpreted by investors. These findings suggest that attracting investment requires more than implementing reforms. It requires sustaining them in a consistent and predictable manner. Policy credibility, therefore, emerges as a critical determinant of investment outcomes
Topic:
Reform, Economy, Investment, and Credibility
Political Geography:
Africa

177. A Common Denominator in Conflict Studies: Introducing Political Non-State Organisations

Author:
Tom Konzack
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
Abstract:
This Working Paper advances the conceptualisation of non-state actors by introducing political non-state organisations (PNSOs) as a distinct analytical category. Drawing on insights from terrorism, civil war, and social movement studies, it argues that prevailing definitions suffer from conceptual ambiguity and empirical inconsistencies, hampering comparative research. PNSOs are defined by their formal organisational structures, political objectives, and their engagement in physical, publicly observable actions taking place outside institutional political channels. This framework integrates elements of both actors commonly denoted non-state and social movement organisations, while delineating PNSOs clearly from state and apolitical entities. The approach also captures hybrid actors who combine protest and electoral politics. By introducing PNSOs, a more consistent cross-case comparison of entities involved in political contention is made possible – using violent or non-violent tactics. The conceptual refinement addresses methodological fragmentation in existing datasets, offering a coherent foundation for empirical studies of contentious politics across diverse political and geographical contexts.
Topic:
Political Violence, Civil War, Terrorism, Non State Actors, Social Movement, and Tactics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

178. Paths to Openness: Immigrant Background and Attitudes toward Immigrants

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
Abstract:
Using data from the World Values Survey (WVS) and European Values Survey (EVS) covering 92 countries (n ≈ 157,000), this study examines whether individuals with an immigrant background exhibit more accommodating attitudes toward immigrants than those without such roots. “Immigrant background” is measured by whether at least one parent was born outside the respondent’s country of residence. “Accommodating of immigrants” is captured using three indicators: willingness to have immigrants / foreign workers as neighbors; assessment of immigrants’ contribution to economic development; and trust in people of a different nationality. While the first two measures focus on “immigrants,” the third homes in on “non-nationals,” allowing for an assessment of whether attitudes toward immigrants—a highly politicized group—extend to the more neutral category of “non-nationals.” Regression analyses indicate that individuals with an immigrant background are significantly more likely to express willingness to have immigrants as neighbors, to evaluate immigrants’ economic contributions positively, and to trust non-nationals. These patterns are consistent with theories of social identity and intergroup contact, suggesting that shared backgrounds and transnational ties may foster in-group extension and greater openness toward immigrants.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Tolerance, Society, Trust, and Prejudice
Political Geography:
Global Focus

179. This Sand Is Mine! Why Sand Mining Has Led to Violent Conflict in Makueni County, Kenya

Author:
Levke Aduda and Annette Adhiambo Aduda
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)
Abstract:
Sand is the second-most exploited natural resource after water, with global demand for it steadily increasing. Yet the societal and conflict-related impacts of sand mining remain understudied. This Working Paper examines the conditions under which sand mining generates violent conflict. We argue that violence is most likely to occur where local authorities and law enforcement are corrupt or embedded in the sand economy, and where communities strongly depend on related incomes. Under these conditions, competition between mining groups, conflicts with local communities over environmental damage, and stricter enforcement measures can escalate into violence. An in-depth case study of Makueni County, Kenya, based on fieldwork and media reports supports these expectations. Our findings highlight the need to systematically integrate sand extraction into resource-governance frameworks to protect both the environment and peace.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Governance, Conflict, Mining, and Sand
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

180. Walking on Two Legs: The Socialism of Chinese Modernisation

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
09-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The Chinese experience shows that true national independence demands both technological advancement and the constant realignment of economic power, proving that market mechanisms can be directed toward human need rather than profit.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Science and Technology, Modernization, and Socialism
Political Geography:
China and Asia

181. The Turbulence of the Indian Economy

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The global economic order is in flux and globalisation is in a prolonged crisis. In the 1990s, Western capital under US hegemony promoted trade liberalisation and the spread of global supply chains that exploited labour cost differentials between the Global South and the North. Now, these very same processes are being undermined by the same hegemon under US President Donald Trump’s leadership to reverse globalisation’s unintended consequence: the erosion of US economic and technological dominance by a rising power in the Global South. Even as the global economic order is being reshaped, the Indian economy remains weighed down by the inertia of thirty-five years of liberalisation. Its structural problems, rooted in entrenched inequalities and aggravated by neoliberal policies, have stifled the development of a broad-based, technologically advanced domestic industrial base. Owing to the dismal state of Indian industry, most of the workforce remains excluded from it, confined to insecure, low-wage, low-productivity employment sustained by sheer desperation for livelihood. As a result, much of the population is trapped in various shades of poverty, even as official claims of a steep decline in deprivation are conjured through methodological sleights of hand.1 The persistent underdevelopment of industry, particularly manufacturing, lies at the core of India’s tryst with globalisation. The promises of liberalisation – to unlock India’s supposed potential – have produced a central tendency toward deindustrialisation, hollowing out formal employment while weakening productive capacity and deepening social inequalities. Despite the current government’s bombastic appraisal of India’s importance on the world stage as Vishwaguru – literally ‘teacher to the world’, a term popular in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindutva rhetoric – and claims of high growth rates that are often mired in statistical controversies, it has been forced to confront these failures, which it does with obfuscations and accusations. Since Modi came to power as India’s prime minister in 2014, his go-to political strategy has been to blame all unpalatable facts on the opposition and previous governments, even as his tenure now stretches beyond a decade. There is no doubt that the neoliberal policies initiated by the Indian National Congress in the 1990s and subsequently pursued by every government since – including Modi’s right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (Indian People’s Party, BJP), its most zealous adherent – have brought the Indian economy to this unfortunate state. Modi’s long tenure as chief minister of the western Indian state of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014 burnished his neoliberal credentials in the eyes of Indian and foreign capital. But Modi’s response has been to double down on the same policies – worse, now on steroids – thereby exacerbating underlying problems, deepening inequalities, and entrenching the crisis further. Since becoming prime minister he has announced a series of grand policy initiatives such as Make in India, Startup India, Skill India, Design in India, and Design for the World. These initiatives were supposed to attract foreign capital into design and manufacturing in India for global markets, encourage Indian start-ups to enter new technology sectors, and upgrade the skill levels of the Indian workforce to align with world-class standards – all ostensibly aimed at revitalising Indian manufacturing while catering to Western markets. In practice, these initiatives have failed to strengthen manufacturing or reverse the trend of deindustrialisation. Most simply offered subsidies and tax rebates to corporations in the hope that industrial expansion would follow automatically, with predictably meagre results. A much-publicised initiative along these lines was the Production Linked Incentive scheme for fourteen industries, foremost among them electronics, with the government handing out large subsidies to firms – both foreign and domestic – for manufacturing. But this scheme has largely amounted to subsidising the assembly of imported components, with negligible impact on India’s overall import bill or technological capability. The bulk of value addition for goods made in India, such as smartphones, is still done overseas while the burden of these subsidies ultimately falls on the people through cuts in public investment and social spending of the government. The structural constraints that hamper the development of India’s economy and industry cannot be addressed simply through subsidies to corporations or indiscriminate foreign investment flows; if anything, such policies only reinforce the structural malaise India inherited at independence, which was compounded after liberalisation.
Topic:
Development, Economy, Neoliberalism, International Order, and Deindustrialization
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

182. Class Struggle and Climate Catastrophe in the Sahel

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Since the colonial era, conflicts in Africa have been explained by every imaginable category – tribal antagonism, ethnic hatred, religious extremism, governance failures, population pressures, and resource scarcity, to name a few – except the one that underlies them all: class. While these categories undoubtedly shape Africa’s contradictions, they cannot be explained without an assessment of the relations of production. Each period of Africa’s postcolonial history has produced new explanations that share one feature, namely the systematic erasure of how imperial extraction and class exploitation organise violence and reproduce instability. Many, including sections within the anti-colonial struggles, have insisted that the categories of class analysis and class struggle do not apply to Africa because a class-based society has not formed on the continent. Fifty years ago, Issa Shivji’s Class Struggles in Tanzania advanced two key arguments that countered this thesis: Capitalist relations of production on the African continent have divided populations into classes, reshaping other social relations – ethnic, kinship, communal – through the pressures of class formation. Therefore, class as a category is analytically necessary to understand the African reality.2 In Saviors and Survivors, Mahmood Mamdani argued that the war in Darfur cannot be understood without considering the colonial reorganisation of land and political identity, particularly the divide between tribes with recognised homelands (dars) and those without. He showed how these divisions, combined with desertification and the intensifying competition over resources, exacerbated class tensions and violence, particularly as the Sahel region grew increasingly arid.3 While climate change is playing an undeniable role in shifts in the region, the dominant ‘climate conflict’ framework routinely – and falsely – frames climate-driven resource scarcity as the root of violence and instability in the Sahel. The institutional architecture of the ‘climate conflict’ framework was consolidated in the 2010s. The UN Environment Programme’s Livelihood Security: Climate Change, Migration and Conflict in the Sahel identified climate change as a ‘threat multiplier’ driving farmer-herder conflict, while the UN Security Council’s 2018 debate on climate-related security risks positioned climate as a threat requiring military response.4 This ‘climate-security nexus’ discourse emerged during a period shaped by the 2008 global financial crisis, the NATO destruction of Libya in 2011, and the subsequent militarisation of the Sahel through expanded US and French military presence – context that the framework itself systematically omits. Class Struggle and Climate Catastrophe in the Sahel argues that the escalating conflicts in the Sahel can only be understood if they are analysed as being grounded in the class struggle, given that they operate within the political economy of imperialist extraction: the climate catastrophe is an accelerant that intensifies pre-existing contradictions – not its root cause. The second part of the dossier looks closely at Mali and Sudan as examples of these changes in the Sahel.
Topic:
Climate Change, Imperialism, Conflict, Extractivism, and Class Struggle
Political Geography:
Africa, Sudan, Mali, and Sahel

183. The Anti-Feminist Agenda of the Latin American Far Right

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Since 2016, marches against sexual and gender diversity1 have swept across Latin America. They feature women dressed in pink and men in blue to underscore traditional gender roles. The marches have been accompanied by a strong social media presence, with hashtags such as #NoALaIdeologíaDeGénero (‘No to gender ideology’), #ConMisHijosNoTeMetas (‘Don’t mess with my children’), #AMisHijosLosEducoYo (‘I will educate my children’), and #ConLosNiñosNo (‘Not with children’). These campaigns, which have their roots in the United States in the 1970s and reemerged in the twenty-first century, are part of an anti-gender, anti-feminist wave driven by Christian fundamentalism. This wave has swept across Catholic-majority countries in Western Europe such as Spain and Italy; across Eastern Europe, from Croatia and Hungary to Poland and Slovenia; and beyond Europe, from Australia to Sub-Saharan Africa. In many countries, efforts to sabotage comprehensive sex education and restrict access to contraceptives and safe abortion are widespread (for instance, more than half of the countries in Sub-Saharan Africa criminalise sexual and gender diversity).2 Alongside this conservative wave, Latin America experienced an intense transnational cycle of feminist mobilisation (2015–2019). This cycle of feminist mobilisation also strained the limits of state institutions and often outpaced the agendas of the region’s progressive governments, pressing demands that went further than those governments were willing or able to pursue. Today’s far right is international and ascendant, from the Philippines and Hungary to India and Argentina. In this dossier, we examine how, in Latin America, its tentacles intertwine with those of global, regional, and local ultraconservative organisations – both religious and secular – to promote an agenda against the rights of women and sexually and gender-diverse people. Our main lens for analysing how this agenda operates in different countries is The Con Mis Hijos No Te Metas (‘Don’t Mess with My Children’) campaign, which is active across most of the region. We look at six Latin American countries to show how this campaign operated between 2016 and 2025: Peru, where it originated; Ecuador, where it was first exported and took hold under an economically and politically progressive government; Argentina, home to the strongest feminist movements in the region, where major legal and institutional advances have been achieved for the rights of women and sexually and gender-diverse people; Chile, where the massive popular uprising of 2019 failed to consolidate broad gains even as the feminist movement managed to achieve some; and El Salvador, among the most conservative countries on sexual and reproductive rights. El Salvador shares with Brazil – also analysed here – a strong presence of evangelical fundamentalist movements and the fact that, although the Con Mis Hijos No Te Metas campaign has played a limited role, other mechanisms and closely related campaigns have.
Topic:
Religion, Women, Neoliberalism, Transnational Actors, Far Right, Gender, Democratic Transitions, and Moral Panic
Political Geography:
Latin America

184. The War on the Poor: Narcotics, Campesinos, and Capitalism

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Hundreds of years ago, the bandits of early capitalism claimed that they had come to the ‘savage’ lands to bring ‘civilisation’. But what they came to do was plunder: to take land, exploit labour, and extract bullion from across Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Over the generations this banditry became structural, built into plantations, mines, and trading companies that drained that wealth into Europe’s ‘eternal glory’. In time, the bandits’ descendants put on dry-cleaned suits and suggested that the ugliness of the past was not their inheritance, that their fortunes were the product of their diligent entrepreneurship. But beneath them, in the sewers of commercial activity, were the other organised branches of business – the mafia, narcos, arms dealers, smugglers, human traffickers, cyber criminals, loan sharks, animal poachers, organ traffickers, and those who run the scam farms and cybercrime compounds.2 The capitalists above ground and those below are bound together by the circulation of vast, liquid, dirty cash. These illicit funds flow up from below to be cleansed by those above, the smell washed from the money, the notes ironed and creased, then set in motion – for a small discount – as the necessary volume of money that becomes clean capital for licit use. This dossier seeks to undermine the dominant narrative that presents the ‘War on Drugs’ as a genuine moral crusade by the capitalist states to prohibit the circulation of illicit narcotics. This narrative rests on the claim that the drug trade is somehow separate from ‘legitimate’ capitalism. We argue instead that the War on Drugs is merely an attempt by capitalist states to ensure that these narcotics circuits remain underground so that the money siphoned from illegal trade can continue to liquefy a banking system that would not function without it. Furthermore, beyond laundering criminal profits and waging class war on peasants, the War on Drugs has become a flexible imperial tool for disciplining defiant governments, advancing counterrevolutionary agendas, and opening up territories to capital. While the war is a global regime, this dossier focuses on Colombia’s coca-cocaine economy as a lens through which to examine its political economy. Our text draws on historical research on the past decades of the War on Drugs, key United Nations (UN) documents, and our own work with campesino (peasant) organisations in Colombia. From their position at the bottom of the commodity chain, campesinos have a clear understanding of the structures that sustain illicit trade. Their organisations have mapped the parallel capitalism that exploits rural producers and their families as well as working-class communities in the wealthier nations, where structural unemployment pushes many into this economy as low-level sellers or consumers.
Topic:
War on Drugs, Socialism/Marxism, Capitalism, Class, Commodities, Drug Trafficking, Poverty, and Peasants
Political Geography:
Latin America and Colombia

185. The Future

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Each month, for the past hundred months, our team at Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research has researched, written, and designed a dossier. These dossiers – which range from histories of imperialism and national liberation to analyses of economic policy, sovereignty, war, and the changing world order – have circulated around the world in many languages, from English, Hindi, and Portuguese to Arabic, Thai, and Spanish.1 This is our 100th dossier, which is why we decided to pause and produce a historical-materialist account of a key concept at our institute: the future. When our institute was conceptualised in 2015, we had three main lines of inquiry before us: To better understand contemporary capitalism and the nature of the class struggle that shapes it. To better understand the rise of what we call the far right of a special type.2 To better understand the future – or what comes next. This third line of inquiry emerged from a materialist understanding of the historical process, which sees the present not as an eternal reality but as open to transformation. In other words, the present can be shaped into a future of a different character. The capitalist system that we inhabit is not permanent: it can be transformed into a socialist system through the class struggle and the development of the productive forces. Here, for the first time, we present a philosophical and political assessment of the future. Drawing on the tradition of national liberation Marxism, we argue that this future should be called not only socialism, the objective, but also hope, the sensibility for such a future.3 We trust that you will read this dossier as you have read the previous ninety-nine and that you will share, debate, and discuss it collectively in reading circles and other spaces of political study. We are always open to your feedback.
Topic:
Socialism/Marxism, Capitalism, Future, and Internationalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

186. The Architecture of Power: The Dollar, Financialisation, and the Struggle for Sovereignty

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The role of the dollar as the principal currency of exchange in world trade grants the United States exorbitant power. This dossier examines the rise of this currency, the mechanisms of its domination, and the structural limits to building an alternative to the dollar.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Socialism/Marxism, Capitalism, Currency, Financialisation, and Dollar
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

187. A Vietnam in the Field of Culture: The Cultural Congress of Havana, 1968

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
08-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In 1968, delegates from seventy countries gathered in Havana to confront cultural imperialism and imagine culture as a decisive front of anti-imperialist struggle.
Topic:
Imperialism, History, Socialism/Marxism, and Culture
Political Geography:
Cuba, Global Focus, and Global South

188. Land Protection, Credit Access, and the Insurance Gap: The De Soto Trap

Author:
Werner Hernani-Limarino
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Bolivia’s Ley 1720 (April2026) allows small holders to voluntarily convert constitutionally protected pequeña propiedad—land that cannot be seized by creditors— into pledgeable mediana propriedad, explicitly targeting the credit-access channel that Hernando de Soto popularized. This paper develops a dynamic model showing that such convrersion creates a De Soto trap: the households most likely to convert are those most desperate for liquidity, not those best positioned to benefit from credit, and these households face the highest default probability. Without complementary insurance, land flows irreversibly from vulnerable smallholders to those with capital to purchase foreclosed properties. The model yields three results: (i) adverse selection into conversion emerges endogenously from the threshold conditions; (ii) aggregate smallholder land decays exponentially toward zero--a ratchet that cannot reverse without policy intervention; (iii) mandatory insurance as a conversion requirement filters out non-viable applicants, bounds land loss, and raises net welfare by a factor of four. Calibrated to Bolivian agricultural census data, the model predicts that under current policy, 120,000 households will lose their land within 25 years. The law addresses the channel (credit) for which the empirical evidence is weakest while removing a protection (implicit insurance through inalienability) whose value the risk literature suggests is large. Bolivia's reform inverts the optimal policy sequence.
Topic:
Insurance, Land Reform, Credit Constraints, Land Tenure, and Adverse Selection
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

189. Smog, not lights. Tracking Bolivia’s 2024–2026 recession from space

Author:
Werner Hernani-Limarino and Ahmed Eid
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Nighttime lights are the standard satellite proxy for economic activity, but they fail to detect recessions. On a 2020–2024 panel of nine Bolivian departments, VIIRS lights match the sign of PIB growth 78 percent of the time during expansions but only 39 percent during contractions —worse than coin-flip. The reason is structural: lit infrastructure is a stock that does not contract when activity falls, while fossil-fuel combustion is a flow that does. Tropospheric NO2, a neardirect measure of combustion retrieved daily by ESA’s Sentinel-5P satellite, maintains 72 percent sign concordance during contractions. We exploit this asymmetry to build a monthly recession indicator from TROPOMI NO2 over eleven Bolivian metropolitan areas, July 2018 through April 2026. The indicator peaked in June 2023; INE quarterly PIB first registered negative year-on-year growth five quarters later, in 2024Q4. Through November 2025 the satellite and INE agree to within one log point. A pre-break SARIMA trained through November 2025 projects a 2026 PIB contraction of approximately 2 percent, consistent with the IMF (−3.3 percent), World Bank (−3.2), and IIF (−4) forecasts, though the confidence interval is wide. The centered-12-month March 2026 endpoint becomes fully observable from actual data in October 2026, and we commit to a revisit at that date. The indicator is reproducible from free Copernicus data with a two-month publication lag..
Topic:
Infrastructure, Recession, Early Warning, Lighting, and Nitrogen Dioxide
Political Geography:
South America and Bolivia

190. Behind the Ballots and the Bluster: Decoding Votes on Ukraine Resolutions at the UN

Author:
Nienke Wessel and Bob Deen
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an end to the war remains elusive. Ukraine is not only fighting Russia on the battlefield, but also in the diplomatic arena to secure international support. This report analyses the way this diplomatic war has unfolded by looking at two dimensions: votes in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and attendance of the peace conference in Bürgenstock. A closer look at voting patterns in the UNGA reveals a gradual decrease in support over the past few years. Immediately after the invasion, 141 states voted in favour of pro-Ukrainian resolutions; in December 2025, this number had dwindled to 79. Ukraine and its supporters in its diplomatic struggle against Russia could benefit from a careful analysis of the various reasons behind these shifting levels of support. This report therefore presents a clustering of voting patterns, which can help identify both the nations that hold fixed positions and those who vary in their voting behaviour and stated positions. A better understanding of the motivations behind these positions is crucial for a diplomatic strategy that aims to convince them to support Ukraine. The approach in this study is two-fold: it first discusses the narratives that have been promoted by both Russia and Ukraine and then analyses why these may or may not appeal to different states across the world. While Ukraine rightfully claims that the invasion is a violation of international law and posits itself as a democracy that has fallen victim to a brutal act of aggression, Russia instead promotes a narrative of defence against supposed threats by the West. While most countries around the world generally and rhetorically support international law, the narrative of the ‘threatening West’ also finds support across the world and particularly in the grouping of countries sometimes referred to as the ‘Global South’. However, the appeal of the Russian narrative is only part of the puzzle. Practical reasons are perhaps much more important to determine the level of support; many countries may have their own reasons to either support Russia or at least not jeopardize their relationship with Moscow. These include food security, maintaining trade relations with Russia, strategic voting considerations, or a preference for a multipolar world order. For any diplomatic strategy to be effective in convincing countries to support Ukraine, it requires listening to their individual concerns and addressing those to the extent possible. Understanding does not imply agreement as not all arguments have moral equivalence and some may not be put forward in good faith, but the West should also be wary of its own biases. A convincing argument should address both the narrative as well as the practical interests driving state positions. It should furthermore realise that there is no one-size-fits-all solution: while there are common patterns across the world, the different elements present themselves in different combinations for each individual nation. A convincing diplomatic strategy begins with listening.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

191. The Saudi economy amidst war, competition and reassessment: Vision 2030 under pressure

Author:
Máté Szalai
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The US-Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent Iranian counterattack across the Middle East have put the Saudi economy between a rock and a hard place. Just before the outbreak of the conflict, the government reviewed its long-term development program Vision 2030. It made four major changes: 1) more emphasis on attracting foreign investments, 2) greater focus on Saudi competition with the UAE, 3) discontinuing several unrealistic projects and 4) prioritising sectors like AI and tourism. However, all these changes are threatened by wartime physical, economic and political damage. Implementing Vision 2030 successfully has become much more difficult, regardless of the future of the ceasefire of 8 April 2026. This brief assesses how the war affects Saudi Arabia’s reconfigured Vision 2030 programme and the likelihood of its successful implementation. As a key stakeholder in Vision 2030, the EU should continue to support its reassessment and establish a better balance between the level of its cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE, starting with increasing its diplomatic efforts towards Riyadh.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Foreign Investment, 2026 Iran War, and Vision 2030
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia

192. New Governments, New Opportunities: US Relations with Bangladesh and Nepal Three Months In

Author:
Nilanthi Samaranayake
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In the past two years, Bangladesh and Nepal have experienced significant upheaval in their respective political orders. Both witnessed violence in response to public protests and ousted their leaders. Both transitioned from interim governments and conducted elections with new prime ministers entering office. During roughly the first 100 days of the two governments, both have had the United States reach out through official visits, agreements, and opportunities for future cooperation. In Nepal, Prime Minister Balendra Shah took office in late March, and senior US diplomats sought to engage the new government immediately. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Paul Kapur made a stand-alone trip to Nepal in April. This is notable because trips to the region by US officials usually cover multiple countries and often include India. US Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy Sarah Rogers visited the next month, as did Sergio Gor, US Special Envoy for South and Central Asia. News reports suggest that Gor sought a meeting with Prime Minister Shah, who is insisting on a policy of meeting only with ministerial-level or higher-level officials. This was a missed opportunity for Shah to meet with President Trump’s Special Envoy for the region. Shah and his party were elected by many younger voters disillusioned with the previous era of politics, and observers expect his government to demonstrate more creativity and flexibility than previous administrations. Unlike in Nepal, the United States currently has an ambassador posted in Bangladesh, Ambassador Brent Christensen, to facilitate American diplomacy on the ground. After Prime Minister Tarique Rahman entered office in February, Assistant Secretary Kapur visited Bangladesh in early March and discussed a range of economic and security issues. The United States has been Bangladesh’s leading national export market, and US companies are Bangladesh’s largest foreign investors. Meanwhile, Bangladesh ranks among the largest apparel-exporting countries to the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Government, Bilateral Relations, and Elections
Political Geography:
Bangladesh, South Asia, Nepal, and United States of America

193. Bangladesh’s Post-Uprising Election and the Struggle for Strategic Space

Author:
Zillur Rahman
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The February 2026 parliamentary election in Bangladesh is the first truly important political event after the collapse of the Sheikh Hasina-led system amid massive public protests and subsequent transition period. The election allowed political competition and some democratic legitimacy to return to Bangladesh, while simultaneously revealing several structural trends which will determine the country’s future development: the rising demands of young demographics, the ongoing tug-of-war between political reform and revenge politics, and challenges related to Bangladesh's strategic neutrality in a geopolitically polarized environment. In this context, demography becomes the most powerful political driver of change in Bangladesh. Currently, almost half of Bangladesh’s population is below 35 years old. The post-liberation political generation, which grew up amid the 2024 anti-government revolt, had a completely different set of priorities from previous generations. They cared little about liberation war narratives and heroes; additionally, young Bangladeshis did not rely heavily on traditional party politics. The post-revolt generation has now entered politics in search of jobs, accountability, integrity, fighting against corruption, freedom of expression and information, and better institutional performance.
Topic:
Demographics, Elections, Youth, Sheikh Hasina, and Political Transition
Political Geography:
Bangladesh and South Asia

194. Nepal’s Elections and the Opportunities for Youth-led Transformation

Author:
Kamal Dev Bhattarai
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Nepal is undergoing a rapid political transformation after last year’s Gen Z protests and is now anchored through the March 5 elections. The way youths were elected through the elections and dominate the parliament is a real generational shift in Nepali politics. Also, conventional and regional political parties were nearly routed and a relatively new political party–Rastriya Swatantra Party– secured a thumping majority winning 182 seats in a 275-member House of Representatives. There is currently a clear mandate that demands substantial change and reform in Nepali politics and polity with greater accountability, corruption control and government reform, job creation and economic recovery, and an ability to work productively with neighboring countries and major powers. If the new youth-led government can overcome key challenges, the leadership can use this momentum to take advantage of important opportunities and put Nepal on a more stable path of growth.
Topic:
Reform, Elections, Youth, Accountability, Generation Z, and Political Transformation
Political Geography:
South Asia and Nepal

195. Technological proximity and the mitigation of trade costs

Author:
Mahdi Ghodsi, Michael Landesmann, and Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
09-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper develops a theoretical and empirical framework for analysing how technological proximity shapes bilateral trade flows. We model technological alignment as a source of reduced effective trade costs and embed it within a structural gravity setting. Using a novel dataset combining sector-level patent information and OECD trade data for 76 countries across 45 sectors over the 1996-2020 period, we construct a granular measure of technological proximity based on revealed technological advantage. Estimating high-dimensional fixed effects gravity models, we find that technological proximity has a positive and economically significant impact on bilateral exports. Instrumental-variable estimates based on shift-share global technology shocks indicate that baseline results are attenuated by endogeneity. We further show that technological proximity mitigates the trade-reducing effects of compliance-intensive regulatory non-tariff measures, particularly sanitary and phytosanitary measures, while having limited interaction with tariffs. In non-services sectors, a 0.1 increase in technological proximity has an export effect comparable to lowering the gross tariff factor by about 6%-7%. Finally, we document substantial regional and sectoral heterogeneity, showing that the trade-enhancing effects of technological proximity are strongest when countries are connected to technological frontier economies and vary markedly across industries. Partial-equilibrium welfare counterfactuals imply positive but modest gains from targeted technological-alignment shocks. The findings highlight the central role of technological compatibility in shaping global trade patterns.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Trade Policy, Global Value Chains, and Proximity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

196. The structural interdependencies of industries: An agent-based model

Author:
Andreas Lichtenberger, Oliver Reiter, and Torben Schütz
Publication Date:
07-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
We develop an agent-based stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model with multiple industries and supply chains to analyse the propagation of sectoral shocks. The model features five industries with heterogeneous firms producing final goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods. Key innovations are the distinction between homogeneous intermediate goods (produced on stock) and tailor-made capital goods (ordered in advance), reflecting differences in production processes and the usage of the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for modelling household consumption behaviour. Calibrated to Austrian data using Eurostat sources and neural posterior estimation, the model is used to analyse the economy’s response to a sector-specific supply shock, illustrated through the example of a flooding event affecting the primary sector. Our results demonstrate that inventory levels critically determine economic resilience: a 100-year flood has limited impact regardless of the industry setup, but under a 1,000-year flood, low inventory ratios trigger a vicious circle in which supply shortages cascade across industries, preventing reconstruction and causing a prolonged GDP contraction. High inventory buffers, by contrast, enable rapid recovery. Hence, the structural decomposition into industries becomes decisive when inventories are low, revealing that interdependencies matter most during supply-constrained crises. These findings highlight the importance of explicitly modelling industry interdependencies and inventory dynamics for understanding shock propagation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Macroeconomics, Supply Chains, Input-Output Analysis, and Shock Propagation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

197. What drives child benefit size and design in Europe? Macroeconomic, sociocultural, and political factors

Author:
Kristijan Fidanovski
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Family policy spending has been linked to a wide range of macroeconomic, sociocultural, and political factors in the social policy, family policy, demography, and political science literatures. This paper examines the influence of these factors on child benefits in the context of population aging. More specifically, it explores the impact of five macroeconomic factors, three sociocultural factors related to immigration, and three political (f)actors on child benefit size and design in 26 European countries between 2002 and 2021. Child benefit size is operationalised in cumulative terms as well as in terms of variation by birth order (from first to fourth children) and household income (middle- and low-income). The analysis is conducted through pooled time series regressions with country-fixed effects and panel-corrected standard errors, using data from a wide range of international sources. The paper finds that all three types of factors tested are linked to child benefit size, although whether and to what extent they matter varies by birth order and household income. The most consistently (negatively) associated factor is immigration stock. In some of the models, child benefit size is also associated with inflation (negatively), GDP (positively), pro-immigration attitudes (positively), and right-wing party strength (positively and negatively, depending on household income). Moreover, the difference in benefit size between middle- and low-income households is higher when unemployment is higher. These findings reinforce the scholarly consensus around child benefits as a multi-layered policy instrument whose size is facilitated and constrained by a complex interplay of macroeconomic, sociocultural, and political factors.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Macroeconomics, and Child Benefit
Political Geography:
Europe

198. Fiscal consolidation and political instability

Author:
Philipp Heimberger and Anna Matzner
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses how fiscal consolidation shocks affect political instability in advanced economies. Using data on fiscal tightening in 17 OECD countries from 1980 to 2020, we estimate dynamic effects in a local projection framework employing a narrative-based instrumental variable approach that isolates exogenous fiscal changes motivated by deficit reduction. Fiscal consolidation carries substantial short-term political costs: it lowers government approval and increases the likelihood of protests and major government crises. These effects are temporary and dissipate over time. The decline in government approval is largely accounted for by the deterioration in macroeconomic conditions following fiscal adjustment. Consistent with this mechanism, consolidations implemented during economic downturns lead to markedly larger declines in approval and a higher probability of government crises, while effects are muted in stronger economic conditions. Turning to the tax-spending composition, we find that approval declines more sharply when adjustments only rely on spending cuts. Overall, our findings provide new evidence on the political costs of fiscal tightening and point to the importance of economic conditions and policy design.
Topic:
Economics, Political stability, Macroeconomics, Austerity, Demonstrations, Labor Strike, and Fiscal Consolidation
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and United States of America

199. Quantifying the trade impact of SPS and TBTs with product-level structural gravity

Author:
Fabio Artuso, Julian L. Clarke, Lionel Fontagné, Mahdi Ghodsi, and Gianluca Santoni
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
Non-tariff measures (NTMs), especially sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and technical barriers to trade (TBTs), have become crucial components of climate, industrial, and regulatory policy, impacting the majority of global trade. However, quantifying their effects on trade is challenging because NTMs are usually non-discriminatory and challenging to identify in standard gravity frameworks. Using a multi-stage structural gravity estimation strategy combined with a control-function correction for endogeneity, we estimate the trade elasticities and ad valorem equivalents of NTMs at the HS6 level for over 5,000 products. Our results reveal significant heterogeneity in NTM trade costs, especially in environmentally relevant sectors, such as clean technologies and electric vehicles. These estimates can inform regulatory impact assessments and general-equilibrium analyses of climate-aligned trade policies.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Non-Tariff Measures, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

200. Optimal and threshold tariffs, trade balance and welfare in a small open Ricardian economy

Author:
Robert Stehrer
Publication Date:
09-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper draws on a Ricardian model for a small open economy and derives the welfare implications of tariffs. By focusing on three key parameters – (i) the expenditure share on imports, (ii) the degree of tariff pass-through, and (iii) the proportion of tariff revenues spent domestically – the model provides closed-form expressions for welfare, optimal tariff rates, and threshold tariff levels. The analysis explains why the marginal effectiveness of increasing tariff rates declines and might even become negative as well as why real wage income typically diverges from total income when tariff revenues are saved rather than spent. The results indicate that high pass-through of tariffs substantially limits potential welfare gains from tariffs even at the optimal rate. Improvements in the trade balance only arise when tariff revenues are not fully recycled into domestic demand. However, welfare is also lower when the optimal tariff rate is applied in such a case. The framework captures mechanisms consistent with more complex trade models and highlights the narrow range of conditions under which tariff policy can yield positive welfare outcomes.
Topic:
Economics, Tariffs, Trade, and Ricardian Trade Model
Political Geography:
Global Focus