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1. The Polish Economy 2023 and Beyond: How to Mend Home Loans

Author:
Andrzej Reich, Dariusz Filar, and Michal Polasik
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The subject of this publication, reflecting the discussion held between experts on 30 March 2023, is that of housing loans in Poland. The publication focuses primarily on discussing the state of mortgages (at the end of the first quarter of 2023). This state is the effect of (a) legislation, (b) institutional solutions, (c) past processes in the financing of housing loans, and recently also (d) the high level of inflation dampening both lending by the banks and the level of interest among bank customers. The publication's second purpose is to present recommendations which, once put into effect, could rectify today’s lamentable situation. All of the proposals presented in this publication lead to one general recommendation: the answer to the current shortcomings lies not in isolated, single changes; what is essential is a new system for the market. This new system should be (a) flexible, (b) free of legal risk while at the same time (c) better protected against market risk, and (d) it should also contain a more comprehensive range of products; on this market (e) the state, as the regulator, should intervene ex-ante and not only ex-post (as has been the case in Poland for the last 20 years), while (f) customers should have the essential minimum of financial knowledge, first and foremost regarding awareness of the risk related to, which by their very nature are long-term loans.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Interest Rates, Risk, Mortgages, Banking, Loans, and Financial Education
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

2. A battle against time – and against Putin’s Russia

Author:
Erwan Fouéré
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
With Putin’s war against Ukraine about to enter its third year, the EU’s enlargement policy remains at the top of its foreign policy priorities, with the focus being on both Ukraine and Moldova. This is following the European Council’s decision to open accession negotiations with both countries. But where does this leave the countries of the Western Balkans and their very long journey towards the EU which began over 20 years ago? Will these countries’ hopes for much needed political momentum in their accession prospects be fulfilled during 2024, despite the repeated delays and the EU’s failure to respect its commitments to the region over the past few years? With elections taking place across Europe offering fertile ground for Russia to deploy its arsenal of disinformation tactics, time is not on the EU’s side. To counter Russian attempts to influence developments in the region, as well as to reverse the dangerous trend of backsliding in democratic and rule of law reforms, the EU will need to adopt a more robust, consistent and determined approach towards the Western Balkans. Without any further delay, it needs to set out a much needed geopolitical and security direction for its enlargement policies in the Western Balkans.
Topic:
Security, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Rule of Law, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, and Balkans

3. The State of EU-US Digital and Energy Cooperation

Author:
Federica Marconi, Wolfgang Münchau, and Irene Paviotti
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In a time of rapid technological advancements and changing energy paradigms, the European Union and the United States are trying to coordinate their efforts to navigate the complexities of an ever-evolving landscape. Transatlantic dialogues and cooperative endeavours are key mechanisms for mitigating tensions and fostering a common assessment of the opportunities and risks arising from these advancements. Critical in this regard are the problems of governance emanating from technological development and its consequences in the digital sphere as well as the delicate balance between security, competitiveness and environmental targets in the energy dimension.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, Political Economy, Governance, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Digital Policy, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

4. The Future of the Belt and Road in Europe: How China’s Connectivity Project is Being Reconfigured across the Old Continent – and What It Means for the Euro-Atlantic Alliance

Author:
Nicola Casarini
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has entered the twilight zone in the old continent, following a deterioration of bilateral relations between the EU member states and China over the last years. Italy’s official exit from the BRI at the end of 2023 was a further blow to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy. Yet, the BRI in Europe is being reconfigured rather than being terminated. In Western Europe, the BRI is moving away from physical infrastructure projects and investment in industrial assets – the latter being increasingly protected from Chinese takeovers by both national and EU legislation – to financial and monetary connectivity. This shift is welcomed by various European actors, including some policymakers at the national level, eurozone institutions and major banks. Concurrently, most of Eastern European countries continue to promote BRI projects and seek to attract Chinese investments, suggesting that there is a two-speed Europe when it comes to China, both in terms of geography and sectors.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Foreign Direct Investment, European Union, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Currency
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Italy

5. Challenges to Transatlantic Digital Infrastructure: An EU Perspective

Author:
Anselm Küsters, André Wolf, and Eleonora Poli
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Recent disruptions in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere highlight the integral role of digital and physical conduits such as gas pipelines, telecommunications cables and undersea data cables in maintaining European connectivity and security. Overall, the EU’s responses to emerging challenges to its digital sovereignty, particularly from China and Russia, aim to enhance the security and resilience of its digital landscape, from the Global Gateway Strategy to the Gaia-X project. However, the complexity of the submarine cable infrastructure requires a broader and more holistic assessment of the opportunities and obstacles to ensuring the uninterrupted flow of information across borders. Ultimately, a concerted transatlantic effort is needed to strengthen the backbone of Europe’s digital infrastructure against both man-made and natural adversities, thereby securing a future where sovereignty and resilience are paramount for both the EU and the US.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Politics, Infrastructure, European Union, Institutions, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

6. Transatlantic Tech Bridge: Digital Infrastructure and Subsea Cables, a US Perspective

Author:
Julia Tréhu and Megan Roberts
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The importance of digital infrastructure for global communication and connectivity is only growing. Within this varied sector, subsea cables play a central role in ensuring seamless internet traffic globally. What are the US’s strategic and economic interests in digital infrastructure, particularly subsea cables? Within the context of larger economic and geopolitical competition, US policy is multifaceted, from aiming to secure the physical security of infrastructure and guarding against espionage and technology leakage, to boosting economic competitiveness and supporting domestic firms. Overall, digital infrastructure, and undersea cables in particular, are a key element of a larger US strategy of outcompeting China. Although evaluations among allies of the relative threat posed by China and Chinese-owned digital infrastructure vary, broadly shared goals of resiliency, security, and increased connectivity mean there are potential areas for deeper EU-US cooperation, including partnerships with third countries, that align with their respective strategic visions and represent a solid base for further transatlantic coordination.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Infrastructure, Governance, Transatlantic Relations, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

7. Transatlantic Cooperation on Semiconductors: A US Perspective

Author:
Julia Tréhu
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Semiconductors are essential for the global economy, but recent supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have highlighted new risks, leading to new policy approaches. US semiconductor strategy centres around three objectives. First, the funding provided through the CHIPS and Science Act is part of a larger push to strengthen domestic industry and manufacturing. Second, the US seeks to deny strategic adversaries of key technology through export controls. And third, it aims to secure the supply chains for critical technologies. The European and American semiconductor sectors are already tightly intertwined, and further coordination has occurred through forums like the Trade and Technology Council. But challenges remain, including the risk of a subsidy race. Further transatlantic cooperation on key aspects of these new industrial policies can ensure the realisation of shared objectives for a more resilient semiconductor sector.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economic Policy, Transatlantic Relations, Industry, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8. Chips: EU’s Ambition in a Transatlantic Technology Bridge

Author:
Nicola Bilotta
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Semiconductors are vital building blocks of digital technologies. In line with its aspiration for strategic autonomy, the EU has recognised vulnerabilities in its chip supply chain, which heavily relies on foreign firms. The intricate relationship between economic security and open trade underlies the EU’s quest to bolster its domestic capacity while enhancing connections with key global partners. Despite the challenges of finding a policy balance, fostering transatlantic cooperation in the semiconductor domains remains a key ambition. To cultivate a more balanced and effective partnership with the US, the EU should capitalise on its comparative advantages to amplify and fortify its strategic positioning in the global supply chain.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Science and Technology, Governance, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

9. Unemployment and Social Crisis in Tunisia

Author:
Vasco Molini
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The decade since the 2010–11 Jasmine revolution has been particularly difficult for Tunisia. The trend of poverty reduction that started in the early 2000s has lost steam, with poverty rates increasing again in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic and spatial inequalities remaining high. Moreover, the labour market is afflicted by persistent structural problems: high unemployment, high informality and low levels of participation among women and youth. Given the limited opportunities offered by the local labour market, Tunisians increasingly find in emigration the solution to cope with their dire economic and social situation.
Topic:
Migration, Economy, Unemployment, Labor Market, and Social Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia

10. Seeing Tunisia’s Civil Society During Un-civil Times

Author:
Larbi Sadiki and Layla Saleh
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Tunisia’s dramatic democratic reversals since July 2021 warrant an in-depth reflection on how and where its once-promising democratisation momentum went wrong. Much attention is given to the top-down demolition of democratic institutions by the country’s (democratically) elected President Kais Saied. However, just as the popular revolution that ousted the dictator Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali and the subsequent democratic transition was to a great extent a bottom-up process, so civil society too is an important piece of the de-democratisation puzzle. In a bid to compare and contrast trajectories of degeneration and regeneration, the paper explores the contributions and constraints of Tunisian civil society vis-à-vis Tunisia’s difficult experiment with democratisation.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democratization, Democracy, Institutions, and NGOs
Political Geography:
North Africa and Tunisia

11. Disentangling Government Responses: How Do We Know When Accountability Work Is Gaining Traction?

Author:
Jonathan Fox, Brendan Halloran, Alta Fölscher, and Rosie McGee
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Advocacy for public accountability aims to produce certain reactions from government officials or service providers. However, the reactions can be many and diverse, and it is not always clear to advocates how to interpret them and decide on next steps—whether to intensify efforts or back off; continue the same strategy or make adjustments. This paper presents a framework to help accountability advocates and practitioners interpret government reactions to their efforts and move forward appropriately. The framework arises from learning and reflection in the context of the International Budget Partnership (IBP)’s Strengthening Public Accountability with Results and Knowledge (SPARK) program. SPARK seeks to bolster the collective agency of marginalized communities and coalitions to advance democratic and equitable fiscal governance systems that channel public resources to services that address the priority needs of these historically excluded groups.
Topic:
Government, Governance, Accountability, and Financial Management
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. The Invisible Leverage of the Top 1 Percent: Absentee Debtors and Their Hedge Funds

Author:
Stefano Sgambati
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The existing literature on finance, debt and inequality depicts economic elites as a creditor class. According to a popular thesis, over the past four decades, the rich and ultra-rich households in the top 1 percent have experienced a saving glut (excess income), which they have invested in the debts of the poor and their governments. While it is undeniable that the rich have expanded their income share at the expenses of the poor, to refer to them as ‘creditors’ or ‘lenders’ is a misrepresentation of how they actually expand their wealth and income shares by financial means. For it conceals the fact that a great deal of their investments is leveraged, that is, carried out with borrowed money. This article shows that the debts generated by individuals and households in the top 1 percent easily surpass those of all other households and even exceed those of the most indebted states in the world. However, these debts are hard to estimate, and indeed they are not accounted for in statistics on household debt. This is because households in the top 1 percent do not borrow from banks, like normal households do, but they are instead absentee debtors who borrow through the hedge funds, private equity firms, personal investment trusts, and big banks of which they are dominant shareholders and ultimate beneficiaries. To gain an insight into their invisible leverage, the article looks at how much hedge funds borrow, and why their leverage matters.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, Inequality, Finance, Elites, Hedge Funds, and Leverage
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Good Intentions, Better Outcomes: Shifting the Debate About Social Protection and Informality

Author:
James Heintz and Jayati Ghosh
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The introduction of social protections for individuals engaged in paid employment frequently comes up against arguments that such measures would have an adverse impact on employment, reduce access to formal jobs, and result in greater informality. The argument is that, while well intentioned, such policies distort labor markets and generate significant economic costs that either leave some workers worse off than they would have been in the absence of such protection, or the interventions become a drag on overall economic performance, encumbering the process of development. In what follows we critically evaluate such arguments and provide responses to the claim that social protections lead to higher informality. We also consider the challenges involved in providing social protection to different types of workers, including not only those employed by others but specifically the self-employed and unpaid workers.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Labor Market, Informal Economy, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Freedom of Association as a Key Aspect of Human Capital Management

Author:
Lenore Palladino
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Employee freedom of association— the right of workers to form and join organizations of their own choosing— is a fundamental human right that has been consistently disrespected by large U.S. employers (Economic Policy Institute 2019; International Labour Organization 2022). Freedom of association requires employers to refrain from discouraging employees’ right to organize but is routinely violated without meaningful penalty. In over forty percent of union election campaigns, employers face charges for violating employees’ right to organize—which does not include cases where no charges are filed (Economic Policy Institute 2019). The recent wave of well-known companies like Amazon and Starbucks blatantly engaging in practices to discourage their workers from forming unions has seen new challenges from the Biden National Labor Relations Board, but labor law in the United States does not adequately protect the right to freedom of association, and a change in political leadership could give companies carte blanche to override workers' rights (Clean Slate 2022). Companies can choose to establish corporate policies to respect employee freedom of association rights and can engage in behavior demonstrating their commitment to respecting this fundamental human right as part of their approach to Human Capital Management. This article focuses on two aspects of freedom of association as an aspect of Human Capital Management. The first is to examine what kinds of corporate policies exist to clarify corporate standards of conduct when employees are engaged in organizing activity. What kinds of policies focus on compliance with the minimal standards in U.S. labor law, and what policies comply with international norms as enshrined in ILO Conventions 87 and 98? The second prong of the article looks at negative ramifications for corporate value when companies do not respect workers' freedom of association and such behavior becomes public. What is the effect on customer attitudes, how is management behavior becoming increasingly visible, and what ramifications might this have for institutional investors?
Topic:
Political Economy, Employment, Human Capital, Labor Rights, Business Management, and Freedom of Association
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

15. The Economy in its Labyrinth: A Structuralist View of the Mexican Economy in the 21st Century

Author:
Liz Monroy Gomez Franco
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In this paper, I analyze the performance of the Mexican economy during the two decades of the 21st century. I focus on the aggregate and sectoral dynamics of the economy to understand the underlying dynamics behind the aggregate performance of the economy. With these results in mind, I analyze the changes and continuities in the conduction of macroeconomic and labor market policy with the arrival of a new administration in 2018. The goal of analyzing both elements is to provide an integrated view of the situation in which the Mexican economy will face three structural challenges: the medium and long-run effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the integration of artificial intelligence into the production process, and climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Political Economy, History, Macroeconomics, Artificial Intelligence, COVID-19, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

16. IMF Standby Agreements and Inequality: The Role of Informality

Author:
Ceyhun Elgin and Adem Elveren
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In this paper we investigate the response of two inequality metrics to different IMF programs. To this end, we use a relatively large annual (unbalanced) cross-country panel dataset that includes the Gini index and the Estimated Household Income Inequality as the two relevant inequality metrics and covers the period from 1950 to 2016 in an annual basis for 159 countries. Our empirical analysis indicates that in countries where the informal sector size (as percentage of GDP) is relatively larger, the extent of income inequality increases after different IMF programs, but particularly so after standby arrangements. However, we also show that the opposite is true, when informal sector size is small, i.e., inequality declines after different IMF programs.
Topic:
Political Economy, Inequality, IMF, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Dark Spots in the International Commodity Value Chain: The Case of Copper in Zambia

Author:
Dale Mudenda and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper investigates mineral export misinvoicing in Zambia as a channel of capital flight, with a focus on copper, gold, and gemstones. The analysis reveals major discrepancies between Zambia’s recorded exports and imports as recorded by its trading partners. In the case of copper, a large share of exports recorded in Zambia as headed to Switzerland does not appear in Swiss imports. The ‘missing copper’ cannot be traced through analysis of trade between Switzerland and its major partners either. Gaps in the opposite direction are observed in Zambia-China trade, suggesting export underinvoicing, a common mechanism of capital flight. These do not offset the gaps observed in mirror trade statistics between Zambia and Switzerland, which remain a mystery. Similarly, whereas the primary destination recorded for Zambian gold exports is South Africa, these do not appear in gold imports recorded by South Africa. The gemstones sector is characterized by high informality that enables smuggling and export underinvoicing. Zambia must implement measures to curb misinvoicing of mineral exports and address structural opacity in the trade value chain if it hopes to maximize the gains from the exploitation of its mineral resources.
Topic:
Political Economy, Commodities, Exports, Global Value Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

18. Factsheet: Hindu Swayamsewak Sangh (HSS)

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Hindu Swayamsewak Sangh (HSS) is a right-wing Hindu non-profit organization registered in New Jersey. On its website, the group states its mission is “to organize a diverse and vibrant Hindu American society that can collectively address its challenges and contribute to the welfare of the world.” As of November 2023, HSS claims it has 220 Shakhas (branches) nationwide. HSS’s website venerates the early ideologues of Hindu nationalism, including those who praised Nazi Germany. Additionally, HSS has hosted prominent figures from the RSS, an Indian right-wing, Hindu nationalist, paramilitary volunteer organization.
Topic:
Far Right, Hindu Nationalism, and Hindu Swayamsewak Sangh (HSS)
Political Geography:
India, North America, and United States of America

19. Factsheet: Alp Services

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Alp Services is a private global public affairs and intelligence firm based in Geneva, Switzerland. In 2023, it was revealed that Alp Services worked for the United Arab Emirates, and carried out the largest disinformation campaign against Muslims in Europe, linking successful business people, organizations, and individuals to the Muslim Brotherhood in an effort to smear and blackmail them. The campaign relied on Islamophobic tropes as it framed Muslim individuals and organizations of being tied to an alleged “Islamist movement.”
Topic:
Intelligence, Islamophobia, Disinformation, and Public Affairs
Political Geography:
Europe, Switzerland, and United Arab Emirates

20. Factsheet: Operation Luxor

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Operation Luxor was a large-scale police operation involving 940 officers targeting dozens of individuals and businesses that took place on November 9, 2020, in Austria. The government claimed the action aimed to “cut off the roots of political Islam.” In 2021, an Austrian court ruled that the raids were unlawful. In the three years since the raids, not a single person has been arrested or convicted. This “textbook example of governing with crime and fear” was conducted under Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, who was known for his anti-Muslim policies.
Topic:
National Security, Islamophobia, Police, and Operation Luxor
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

21. Factsheet: Narendra Modi

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Narendra Damodardas Modi is the current Prime Minister of India. He was the Chief Minister of Gujarat during the deadly 2002 anti-Muslim pogroms in the state, and throughout his political career, he has promoted Hindu nationalist views. Under his leadership, India has experienced a rise in anti-Muslim hate crimes and hate speech, increasing polarization and violence in society, growing restrictions on the media, and the growth of Hindu nationalist groups. Critics and human rights experts have warned that under Modi’s leadership, democracy in India is under threat.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindutva, and Hindu Nationalism
Political Geography:
India and Gujarat

22. Transnational Cooperation -- An Explorative Collection

Author:
Stephan Klingebiel and Sven Grimm
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The present collection of short papers is an experimental, explorative and introspective German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) project on international and transnational cooperation for development and sustainability. It is the product of internal brainstorming discussions at IDOS in mid-2022 that aspired to conduct a preliminary, exemplary mapping of the use of “transnational lenses” and their understandings across various work strands at the institute. This might lead to new questions in our work, or it might simply be an attempt to look at our topics of interest with a different perspective.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Transnational Actors, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. The Role of the Consumer and Systemic Policy Mixes for Circular Business Models in the EU

Author:
Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Recent decades have shown an unprecedented growth in demand for resources, with a trend that is projected to accelerate in the future. Policymakers around the world have started to recognise that transitioning to a more resource-efficient and circular economy (CE) is key to addressing this challenge. Two important enablers for the transition to a CE are circular business models (CBMs) and consumers. The two are interlinked, as demand shifts among consumers can foster the development and supply of new business models, which in turn require the uptake by consumers to be successful. To promote the development and increase the uptake of new CBMs, policymakers need to provide the respective regulatory frameworks and incentives. Doing so requires systemic policy mixes that go beyond encouraging technological innovations and include targeting the demand side as well. This paper zooms in on the role of the consumer for CBMs, discusses potential consumer barriers to CBM demand, and outlines how policy-making can address these barriers by applying systemic mixes of instruments to tackle the macro-, meso-, and micro-level factors that influence consumer demand simultaneously. While the macro-level describes the economic context of consumers’ decision-making, that is, the availability and supply, infrastructure and price of CBMs in the market, the meso-level characterises the social environment, including social norms and social status, whereas the micro-level focuses on individual characteristics such as consumption habits, security and quality concerns, and environmental knowledge or concern. This paper illustrates how the different consumer barriers are closely interlinked, and that, ideally, policymakers should target all three levels jointly to encourage CBM demand most effectively. In doing so, policymakers should consider the principles of the waste hierarchy in order to maximise the environmental benefits of CE policy mixes. The paper mostly takes a European perspective on the topic, especially when discussing relevant policy frameworks, and reflects on potential differences to other regions, particularly in the Global South, when appropriate
Topic:
Development, European Union, Business, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Europe

24. Information Integrity and Information Pollution: Vulnerabilities and Impact on Social Cohesion and Democracy in Mexico

Author:
Anita Breuer
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Equal access to reliable information is essential for democracy and social cohesion. The rise of information pollution, particularly in digital spaces, poses significant challenges to democratic societies worldwide. While extensive research has focused on its impact in developed, English-speaking democracies, there is a gap in understanding its effects in younger democracies, conflict zones, and less developed contexts. This study fills that gap by analysing Mexico as a case study. Based on interviews with Mexican media professionals, public sector officials, academics and human rights defenders, the study provides insights on the root causes of the problem and and strategies to combat information pollution, safeguard democracy, and promote social cohesion, underscoring the urgency of proactive measures both within Mexico and on a global scale in Mexico, information pollution significantly threatens the country's social cohesion and democratic principles. Structural conditions like poverty, inequality, violence, corruption, and media landscape issues enable societal vulnerability to digital information pollution. Factors directly driving information pollution include the exploitation of digital spaces by drug cartels, divisive narratives against marginalised groups, an increasingly media-hostile environment as well as the incumbent government’s post-factual approach to reality and politics. Information pollution has fostered a polarised discours, contributed to eroding trust in traditional media and amplified identity-based societal cleavages. It weakens the deliberative, participatory and liberal dimensions of democracy dimensions by decreasing the quality of public debate, damaging civil society watchdog roles, and reducing government transparency and accountability. Recommendations for Mexico encompass enhancing public resilience to information through civic education and targeted communication campaigns, empowering media capacity, and fortifying an open data culture in the Mexican public sector. Internationally, efforts should address elite-driven information pollution by reinforcing independent accountability institutions and leveraging diplomatic and economic incentives against leaders attacking these institutions.
Topic:
Development, Democracy, Media, Social Cohesion, and Information
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

25. Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSS) and the “Greening” of High-Emitting Industry Sectors in Brazil: Mapping the Sustainability Efforts of the Private Sector

Author:
Vera Thorstensen, Ariel Macaspac Hernandez, Rogerio de Oliveira Corrêa, and Anabela Correia de Brito
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The work aimed to analyse the sustainability efforts – the greening – of five industry sectors in Brazil: aluminium, chemical, steel, cement, and oil and gas. These sectors were chosen because they are the industries with the highest carbon emissions. The research sought to verify the sustainability measures adopted by business and industry actors, with special emphasis on the use of Voluntary Sustainability Standards and ESG values. In order to verify the information provided by the companies, the documents that informed the measures taken by the companies and the numbers supporting their results were always sought out and explained in the text. The conclusions were that the sectors, guided by industry associations, have adopted a broad set of sustainability measures. The results of these measures, however, sometimes lack proof and sometimes lead to sporadic conduct, contrary to the precepts of environmental and social sustainability.
Topic:
Development, Private Sector, Sustainability, Industry, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

26. Social Contract and Social Cohesion: Synergies and Tensions between Two Related Concepts

Author:
Markus Loewe, Armin von Schiller, Tina Zintl, and Julia Leininger
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
“Social cohesion” and the “social contract” are two related analytical concepts, which have become increasingly popular among researchers and practitioners. Both concepts help to understand and characterise societies and countries by shedding light on the relationships between members and groups of society and state institutions. Unfortunately, there is often little precision in the use of the concepts. As a result, their respective analytical strengths have not always been well utilised for policy analysis and project design. Furthermore, the synergies between them have been overlooked. This paper therefore defines both concepts, considers their respective strengths and discusses the relationship between them. The concept of the social contract emphasises the deliverables exchanged between societal groups and governing authorities. Social contracts are the sum of formal and informal agreements amongst societal actors and between them and the actor in power (the government or any other type of authority) on the rights and obligations of one towards the other. Social contracts vary enormously, but all establish more stability in state–society relations, especially if they are inclusive and flexible enough to account for changes in the framework conditions. The concept of social cohesion, in contrast, refers primarily to the quality of the relations between individuals, societal groups and the state, and the underlying values, norms and attitudes that shape these relationships. Social cohesion can be characterised as the glue that holds a society together and enables it to develop a shared vision. It concerns the horizontal relationships between members of society and the vertical relationships between societal actors and political institutions. Social contracts and social cohesion affect each other. Social contracts contribute to social cohesion because the regular and predictable exchange of deliverables between societal groups and the state creates an interdependence that strengthens mutual trust, willing-ness to cooperate and a sense of common identity. Conversely, social contracts tend to be more resilient and sustainable if they are based on cohesive societies. Both concepts are thus useful for national governments and foreign donors to assess opportunities and design policies for sustainable development. The social contract concept helps us to understand the “give and take” in a country: it shows where governments could do better in delivering to society and thereby make state–society relations more stable. The social cohesion concept in turn helps to determine what holds societies together and which attributes of intra-society relations could or should be strengthened. In addition, both concepts assist foreign donors in assessing which interventions would be favourable for the internal relationships in partner countries and in thinking carefully about potential unintended harmful effects. In particular, international donors can benefit from exploiting the mutually enforcing relationship between social contract and social cohesion.
Topic:
Development, Institutions, Development Aid, Social Cohesion, and Social Contract
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. European Election: Red Alert!

Author:
Pascale Joannin
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Europeans are being called to the polls between 6 and 9 June 2024 — depending on the country — to renew the members of the European Parliament. These will be the tenth elections by direct universal suffrage since 1979.
Topic:
Elections, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Crisis Management, COVID-19, Regional Politics, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

28. A New Security Order for Europe

Author:
Pierre Vimont
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Europe's security order has collapsed in the wake of the Ukrainian conflict. The very idea of rethinking this particular European framework raises doubts when faced with a Russian regime unable to admit the futility of its imperial dream. However, Europeans cannot afford not to think about the future of stability in Europe in response to the Russian question, which has been troubling our continent for too long[1]. Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine has put an end to the European security order as it was established in 1975 in Helsinki. By launching his "special military operation", the Russian President has gutted the whole edifice that had lasted as well as it could since its foundation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, European Union, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

29. The German 'Schuldenbremse' crisis: a symptom to be taken seriously in Europe

Author:
Clara Bösche
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The priority to be given to the ecological transition and its practical implementation are dividing Germany and Europe. The European Union is being accused of making the conditions of production for farmers even more difficult: the number of demonstrations across the European Union has been rising after the Germans began their protests on 15 January 2024, as they denounced the ambitions of the European Green Deal, as well as the human and financial costs. At the start of 2024, the German coalition government (SPD, Greens and FDP Liberals) led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is struggling, since its draft budget has been cut by around €60 billion. The origins of the budget cuts to which the government has had to resort lie in a decision taken by the Constitutional Court of Karlsruhe dated 15 November 2023. The latter censured the decision to reallocate 60 billion €, initially intended to cushion the economic impact of the pandemic crisis, to a special fund for the transformation of the economy and the climate. For two months now, opposition has been growing in Germany over the resources allocated, the priorities to be defined and the rules governing public debt. The constitutional appeal was lodged by CDU-CSU members of parliament, who denounced the government's "sleight of hand". As Germany enters a recession, the debate is whether or not it is still appropriate to limit public debt to 0.35% of GDP. Current circumstances no longer justify bending the rule: the pandemic crisis is over, and the exceptional funds earmarked should not be used for the economy or the environment. As a result, since the Constitutional Court's ruling against the federal budget, in addition to opposition over the priority to be given to the green transition in economic and agricultural life, further opposition has emerged: regarding whether the constitutional principle of the debt brake (Schuldenbremse) should be reformed or not. This principle is firmly defended by Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU and of the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag. In his view, the debt brake is the only way to avoid saddling future generations with debt, and he fears that lifting it might have a knock-on effect in terms of the financial stability of other European Union countries. Within the government, the SPD and the Greens (led by the Vice-Chancellor and Minister for the Economy, Robert Habeck), would like to reform the debt brake to facilitate the necessary investments, in line with the European Green Deal. However, within the same government, the FDP Liberals, led by Finance Minister Christian Lindner, have long refused to challenge this constitutional principle, in the same way as the CDU/CSU opposition. Christian Lindner is therefore in a difficult situation, caught between traditional positions, his coalition partners and the opposition. A hard-won agreement on the 2024 budget, on 13 December 2023, provides for cuts that will result, in particular, in the reduction of tax relief on diesel on agricultural machinery - the main focus of demonstrations in Germany – but also in a postponement of the “climate bonus”. Priorities have had to be set because of this cutback, but they are the source of dissatisfaction both on the part of the farmers, as well as the promoters of the European Green Deal. The debate on Germany's levels of debt, in the light of the demonstrations now rocking the country, is further weakening the coalition - the aim in this paper is not to take position on this - but above all, to consider the problem of the priorities to be identified, not only in Germany but also in Europe.
Topic:
Budget, European Union, Tax Systems, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

30. Ukraine's European Aspirations

Author:
Myroslav Marynovych
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Ukrainians have always been aware of the fact that they belong to the European cultural sphere. As Serhiy Plokhyi, professor of Ukrainian history at Harvard University, points out, "...times change, ideologies change - liberalism is replaced by national-communism... or the idea of human rights emerges. But Europe remains a constant as an example of that something else that is par excellence necessary for the survival of the Ukrainian national project." Before Ukraine was absorbed by Muscovy in the 17th century, the fact that Ukrainian lands were then part of the Rzeczpospolita (Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth) opened up a natural cultural window onto Europe. It was thanks to this lively cultural exchange (albeit not without its problems) that “Ukrainian Baroque” yes amongst other trends, came to be. However, once Ukraine became part of the Russian Empire, new ideas from Western civilisation only reached Ukraine by way of the Russian language, thereby condemning Ukrainian culture to secondary status. Politically, as an independent subject, Ukraine simply disappeared from European consciousness. The emergence of an independent Ukraine in 1991 offered Ukrainians new opportunities to re-establish direct cultural and political contacts with Europe. Immediately, the need to "return to Europe" emerged in Ukrainian public debate. Politically, this had an initial consequence: Ukraine found itself at the end of a fairly long queue of states waiting to join the European Union "club". It was assumed that these states would join as they went along (legislative reforms, economic modernisation, the fight against corruption, etc.). It was not all plain sailing, nor was it without its pitfalls, but the vector of the European vocation (and accession to the European Union) in Ukraine's development was undoubtedly the most powerful, even if it was rivalled by the attachment of eastern Ukrainians to Russia's cultural and political landscape. The impact of Russia's large-scale aggression against Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022, primarily affected the pro-Russian part of the country. It is members of this population who now constitute the majority of refugees and displaced persons. It is their vision of the world that has been turned upside down against a backdrop of atrocities and genocidal crimes committed by the Russians. Accession to the European Union and NATO has therefore become the sine qua non of Ukraine's aspirations, as confirmed by several documents of national importance. In addition to historical memory and purely cultural preferences, security priorities are now clearly visible. Ukraine has begun to implement the European Union’s recommendations and to adapt its legal framework to that of Europe. Any campaign against European integration, or simply questioning the need for it, would be perceived by Ukrainian society as a betrayal of national interests. Recently, however, opinions within the European Union have diverged somewhat. Alongside those States that were shocked by the brutality of the Russian aggression and have declared their solidarity with the Ukrainian people and their willingness to accept our country into the Union, there are also States such as Hungary and Slovakia that consider Ukraine's accession to the European Union to be premature, or even wrong. We can be both optimistic and pessimistic. Optimistic, because European leaders and the majority of Member States are increasingly in favour of Ukraine's accession. Pessimistic, because the chances of Ukraine's accession remain slim as long as the European Union retains its current decision-making rules. As war continues, the reactions of Ukrainian society to the reticence of Hungary and Slovakia and to the blocking of the borders by Polish, Slovakian and Romanian farmers have remained discreet. Ukrainians are aware that their country's accession to the European Union would be a long-term solution, and that a certain amount of restraint is therefore advisable. However, since nobody knows the future, in unfavourable circumstances, resentment and therefore rancour might erupt in Ukrainian society. This is why it would be useful to examine this situation not only from the point of view of the formal concordance of conflicting economic and political interests, but also from a broader perspective.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

31. The BRICS, a geopolitical challenge overlooked by the European Union

Author:
André Gattolin and Emmanuel Véron
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Over the last five years, geopolitical considerations have taken an unprecedented place on the European Union's agenda. Its foreign policy, long in its fledgling stages, is finally beginning to take shape, even if it is still subject to the unanimous decisions of its Member States. The days when trade policy was the only real lever for European foreign policy are over. The increasing bluntness of international relations is obviously no surprise to Europe's still tentative geopolitical awakening. The European Union's foreign policy has many potentially dangerous blind spots. One of the most striking of these 'omissions' concerns the BRICS and their rapid development over the last three years. Launched in 2009, this informal forum of four major emerging countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), which was enlarged to include South Africa in 2011 and now includes ten countries, still seems to escape the attention of the European Union. Over the last fifteen years, official European Union documents dealing with this grouping can be counted on the fingers of one hand. More descriptive than analytical, they are a long way from outlining a European position on this significant group of countries.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Geopolitics, Trade, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Europe

32. The Defence of Europe by Europeans: a myth, a necessity, an ambition, a hope?

Author:
Jean-Paul Palomeros
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Without overstating the case, 2024 is shaping up to be a pivotal year. It has already been marked not only by the continuation of ongoing conflicts and crises, but also by their geostrategic effects and consequences, the full extent of which has yet to be assessed. 2024 will also be a year of great memorable moments and electoral events, a year of risks and, let's hope, opportunities, particularly for Europe. Like a leitmotif, or for some an “old chestnut”, European defence will be the focus of analysis, but also of a real stress test. With this in mind, it cannot be too early to raise a question that is vital to the future of Europe, and the European Union in particular.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:
Europe

33. The various causes of the agricultural crisis in Europe

Author:
Bernard Bourget
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The farmers' revolt, which peaked in January and February 2024, has affected most EU Member States. It is motivated by rising production costs, foreign competition, falling incomes, environmental constraints and cumbersome administrative procedures. However, certain causes are more specific to certain countries. This is the case in the Netherlands, where the farmers' revolt began in June 2022, in opposition to the Dutch government's plan to reduce nitrogen emissions by cutting livestock numbers. Dutch farmers had taken advantage of the abolition of milk quotas in 2015 to increase their production, making massive use of cattle feed imported from North and South America, and consolidating the Netherlands' position as Europe's leading exporter of food products. This farmers' revolt led to the creation of a party, the "Farmer-Citizen Movement" (BBB), which made a strong entry into the Senate in the March 2023 elections. In the countries of Central Europe - Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania - it was the fall in cereal prices, due to the influx of products imported from Ukraine following the closure of the Black Sea shipping route and the suspension of customs duties in May 2022, that provoked farmers' anger. It even led to the resignation of the Polish Minister of Agriculture in April 2023. In Germany, as in France, it was the governments' plans to reduce tax rebates on agricultural diesel that triggered farmers' protests and led to motorway blockades in January 2024. Farmers' discontent had already made itself felt quietly in France in the autumn with the turning over of road signs at the entrances to rural communities. Other grievances have been added to the increase in taxes on diesel, notably the growing environmental obligations under the Green Deal of the European Union and hostility to the free-trade agreements under negotiation with Mercosur, Australia and New Zealand. The first measures taken or announced by governments and the European Commission helped to calm farmers' anger, but the farm protests then spread to Italy and Spain. In response to the scale of the farmers' protests across Europe, on 25 January the President of the European Commission launched, a Strategic Dialogue on the future of agriculture in the European Union, led by a German academic, Peter Strohschneider, whose conclusions are due before the end of the summer. The conclusions should inform the next Commission and prepare the programming of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) after 2027. Themes proposed to participants include farmers' incomes, the sustainability of their practices, technological innovation, and competitiveness. Beyond the immediate measures taken to calm farmers' anger and with a view to analysing its causes, this agricultural crisis needs to be considered in the context of the long-term development of the CAP and European integration.
Topic:
Agriculture, Social Movement, Crisis Management, Carbon Emissions, Farmers, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

34. 2024, a European political year - through the eyes of women

Author:
Stefanie Buzmaniuk
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In 1906, Finland became the first country in Europe to grant women the right to vote, with the adoption of universal suffrage, at the same time as it won its autonomy from the Russian Empire. The following year, Finnish women were able to exercise this right in the general elections. Throughout the twentieth century, women in Europe and around the world fought long and hard to gain the right to vote without any additional conditions to those required of men. In some countries, only widows were allowed to vote as a first step towards electoral emancipation (in Belgium, for example, until 1921). In other countries, such as Bulgaria, the right to vote was initially reserved for mothers of legitimate children and exclusively for local elections. In Portugal, only women with a university degree were allowed to vote from 1931 on. In Spain it was not until post-Franco democratisation and the 1976 elections that Spanish women regained the right to vote, initially acquired in 1931 before the civil war. This year France is celebrating the 80th anniversary of women gaining the right to vote. Cypriot women won the right to vote at the same time as their male counterparts when the Republic was created in 1960. This can be explained quite simply by the fact that, at that time, such discrimination could no longer be justified. So, it took a good part of the twentieth century to get there... In European countries, legislation on the right to vote and stand for election now recognises equal access for women and men. However, their participation in political life is still marked by significant differences and major obstacles that we believe are unjustified. Women are still less represented on the political stage, even though they make up more than half of the population. In the European Union, there are ten million more women than men. This is a fact that deserves our attention in 2024, a year that is notable for its electoral importance, with the election of representatives to the European Parliament scheduled for 6 to 9 June. There will also be five presidential elections and six parliamentary elections in the Member States. This therefore provides a good opportunity to examine the position of women on the European political scene and the obstacles that still exist behind the scenes preventing them from participating fully in political life.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, European Union, Women, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

35. Some little-known effects of global warming

Author:
Louis Caudron
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In an effort to raise public awareness of the seriousness of the effects of climate change, the media generally associate global warming with increasing heatwaves and droughts, melting glaciers and rising sea levels. In reality, the effects of climate change are much more diverse, and they are not impacting all parts of the world in the same way. There are many losers, but there are also winners. The first example concerns rainfall. Contrary to what some might think, global warming does not mean an increase in drought, but rather an increase in rainfall. The rise in temperature translates into an increase in evaporation both on land and at sea, leading to an increase in rainfall on a global scale. Overall, two-thirds of the world's population will see an increase in rainfall and one-third a decrease. A map published by the CNRS illustration this development.
Topic:
Climate Change, Water, and Drought
Political Geography:
Europe and Global Focus

36. Sino-Russian relations in a geopolitical Europe

Author:
Pierre Andrieu
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The close relationship between Russia and China is by no means a solid, long-term alliance, but rather a temporary rapprochement, that has been strengthened by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The fragility of this relationship, based on history and structural imbalances, persists and reinforces mutual mistrust. For the European Union, while all discussions with an aggressive and threatening Russia have disappeared, China remains both “a cooperation and negotiation partner, an economic partner and a systemic rival” with whom we need to maintain a sustained dialogue, commensurate with a Europe that has begun to assert its geopolitical dimension in the last two years.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Rapprochement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Europe

37. Has the time come for European defence?

Author:
Maxime Lefebvre
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
European defence has been a key issue since at least 1948, with the Treaty of Brussels between France, the United Kingdom and the three Benelux countries. At the time, the spirit of the signatories was still to guard against the threat posed by Germany, which was still fresh in people's minds (following on from the Franco-British alliance treaty of Dunkirk in 1947). But it was also increasingly aimed at responding to the threat of the USSR, which was tightening its iron grip on the eastern half of the European continent. As we know, this treaty was soon superseded by the Washington Treaty creating NATO, which is still, to this day, the political and military framework for European defence, coupled with that of the United States. Although the Brussels Treaty eventually disappeared, it survives, notably through the collective defence clause incorporated into the European treaties by the Lisbon Treaty. The idea, the project and the hope of a European defence are still alive, although they have not yet been realised. The war in Ukraine has changed the situation in several ways. Firstly, it places the question of war and peace firmly centre stage in Europe, an issue that had never completely went away, despite the end of the Cold War; however, it is now back at the top of the political agenda. Secondly, the war has led to profound unity in the response of the countries of the European Union to Vladimir Putin's open aggression against Ukraine, and the European Union has asserted itself as a major player complementing NATO and the United States. Finally, it raises the question of whether, should the United States change its policy on Ukraine following the presidential election in November 2024, Europeans would be in a position to take over assistance to Ukraine and move towards a genuine collective defence. To address this issue, it is necessary to take stock of European defence, with its achievements and limitations, and to reflect on the conditions under which a shift towards a genuine European defence could be envisaged.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

38. Health for the Europeans, who cares?

Author:
Tiphaine Maloingne
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The European Union adapts, moves with the times, and evolves. It is these small steps, often made in response to events, that help the European Union to move forward and create the "common narrative" that has kept it solid for 74 years. For several years now, the EU has been working to strengthen its health policy. In other words, the European Union is gradually building a new common narrative: European health. But in the gradual creation of this policy, what place is given to European citizens and their health? Through considerations that are at once temporal, justificatory, technical and imaginary, this paper offers readers an overview of the contours of a new health system for Europeans.
Topic:
Health, European Union, Citizenship, and Healthcare System
Political Geography:
Europe

39. The European Union enlarged from 27 to 36 members? Towards an "Agenda 2030"

Author:
Pierre Mirel
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The Western Balkans today still confirm Bronislaw Geremek’s premonition in 1990: "Three dangers lurk in the post-communist transition: populism, authoritarian temptation and nationalism.” These three tendencies are converging in ethno-nationalisms that are stalling the process of stabilisation and association of the six countries with the European Union. The pursuit of the rule of law is being made all the more difficult because the Balkans are growing poorer while the European Union is getting richer. In the east, association with Ukraine and Moldova has progressed, but the Russian occupation continues. Russia has shattered the international legal order with its aggression in Ukraine and is fighting against the values that Europe promotes and whose echoes resonate in the Balkans. The European Union has responded by reviving the accession process with the Balkans and by opening negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, and perhaps in time it will do the same with Georgia. The complexity of this dual commitment, which would see the European Union grow from 27 to 36 members, requires that its many challenges be openly set out in an "Agenda 2030", with gradual integration forming the core of a renewed process.
Topic:
European Union, Regional Integration, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

40. New European Challenges: the "Schuman" lesson

Author:
Jean-Dominique Giuliani
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Since the health crisis, the European Union has changed. Since the Russian war in Ukraine, these changes have accelerated, to the extent that the face it presents today bears little resemblance to what it was just five years ago. The European institutions have had to adapt to the needs expressed by the Member States. They themselves have drawn their own conclusions from the changing geopolitical situation. These upheavals have led to spectacular advances, but also to some mistakes.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, Institutions, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

41. Climate Change, Response, and Mass Atrocities

Author:
Tallan Donine, Madeleine Maclean, and Daniel Solomon
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
This paper aims to stimulate and frame discussion during the Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention about the relationship between climate change, climate response, and mass atrocities. Based on a review of relevant research, the paper surveys current knowledge about how factors related to (1) climate change and (2) climate response measures might contribute to the risk and prevention of mass atrocities. In the coming decade, climate change will pose significant risks for communities around the world (Buhaug et al. 2023). Mitigation and adaptation measures taken in response to these risks will occupy a large amount of international attention and have important consequences for global political events. Effective action to help prevent and respond to mass atrocities will require clear analysis of the risks and opportunities that these trends present.
Topic:
Climate Change, Atrocities, Adaptation, and Atrocity Prevention
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Ensuring Energy Security and Carbon Neutrality: Implications for Korea

Author:
Jinyoung Moon, Seung Kwon Na, Sunghee Lee, and Eunmi Kim
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The international community faces two major challenges: securing stable energy supplies and achieving carbon neutrality. Concerns about energy security that aroused due to the oil crises in the 1970s are no longer limited to the stable supply of fossil fuels. The concept of energy security is changing in line with the need for transition from fossil fuels to clean energy. As energy prices have soared due to the recent Russia-Ukraine war, major countries are actively pursuing related policies and external cooperation to diversify their energy supply chain and decarbonize their economic structures. In order to appropriately respond to these challenges, continuous efforts are needed to gradually reduce the use of fossil fuels and in crease the use of clean energy in the medium to long-term. In particular, as the proportion of power generation from variable renewable energy sources increases, maintaining the stability of the power grid becomes a more important task. Demand for minerals essential for clean energy related technologies is expected to increase, however, production of these minerals is concentrated in specific countries. Major concerns related to carbon neutrality or clean energy investment include whether sufficient investment is being made, whether funds are being directed to countries or sectors in urgent need of financial support, and how to induce private investment through public funds. Accordingly, our study analyzed energy security from the perspective of energy transition, and derived key issues and notable cases of international cooperation to ensure energy security and carbon neutrality. Based on our findings, we suggested policy implications for Korea.
Topic:
Climate Change, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

43. From tick box to turning point: Getting accountability right for improved humanitarian action

Author:
Jennifer Doherty
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
This paper identifies key challenges and essential issues that need to be addressed to create positive change for people affected by crisis. It draws on a synthesis of different types of evidence, including: focus groups discussions with and survey data from people affected by crisis a literature review small round-table discussions with humanitarian decision-makers key informant interviews with policymakers and practitioners across the sector. The paper offers humanitarian leaders within donor organisations and operational agencies 12 key recommendations - areas that they should invest in as they grapple with accountability as one of the key sticking points holding the humanitarian system back from making progress for crisis-affected people. The paper concludes by identifying key evidence and learning gaps to which agencies could contribute by documenting and sharing their learning, as they take steps to more firmly centre their work around the perspectives of people affected by crisis.
Topic:
Humanitarian Aid, International Organization, Accountability, and Donors
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. Conceptualizing Global Governance of AI

Author:
Maral Niazi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Merging artificial intelligence (AI) and global governance, global AI governance focuses on defining terms to deepen understanding, promote collaboration and create informed policies. It emphasizes multi-stakeholder and multi-level cooperation in managing AI’s global impacts. AI’s societal impacts are broad, offering exceptional benefits while carrying unintended risks. Its rise poses geopolitical challenges, affecting transparency, privacy and power dynamics in both democratic and non-democratic states. Empirical and normative research is essential in forming global AI governance, guiding ethical values and legal practices for ethical data use and unbiased algorithm development. Empirical research provides verifiable knowledge through data and experiences, highlighting regime complexities in an anarchic system of global governance, meaning a system with no central authority. Normative research examines values and norms, assessing AI systems’ trustworthiness and ethical compliance. Multilateral cooperation in global AI governance involves collaborative efforts among numerous actors to establish universally accepted norms and policies for AI. An institutional framework for global AI governance should incorporate lessons from international organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the European Organization for Nuclear Research/Conseil européen pour la recherche nucléaire to guide AI’s ethical development and deployment within and beyond national borders. ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Topic:
International Cooperation, Governance, Multilateral Relations, Artificial Intelligence, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. The Climate Policy Crisis: Governing Disinformation in the Digital Age

Author:
Andrew Heffernan
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Climate change is the quintessential global challenge, while also perhaps the issue that has experienced the most polarization in recent years. Therefore, understanding the way broader global politics manifest through tools such as social media and consequently impact policy making, becomes integral to effectively fighting the climate crisis. While climate change must be countered through effective mitigation and adaptation approaches at the local, national and global levels, implementing effective policies to do so can only be accomplished through buy-in by a critical mass of citizens. Disinformation campaigns have, however, increasingly been targeted at issues that fall along partisan lines and climate change has been a particularly polarizing issue. Research presented in this paper demonstrates ways in which efforts to misinform and disinform the public are becoming both increasingly prevalent as well as effective. The polarization that is being stoked by misinformation campaigns on social media is the most serious threat to fighting climate change. New policies and approaches for policy development and implementation will be required to match the alacrity of the proliferating online flows of misinformation and disinformation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Disinformation, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

46. Data Disquiet: Concerns about the Governance of Data for Generative AI

Author:
Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The growing popularity of large language models (LLMs) has raised concerns about their accuracy. These chatbots can be used to provide information, but it may be tainted by errors or made-up or false information (hallucinations) caused by problematic data sets or incorrect assumptions made by the model. The questionable results produced by chatbots has led to growing disquiet among users, developers and policy makers. The author argues that policy makers need to develop a systemic approach to address these concerns. The current piecemeal approach does not reflect the complexity of LLMs or the magnitude of the data upon which they are based, therefore, the author recommends incentivizing greater transparency and accountability around data-set development.
Topic:
Accountability, Transparency, Artificial Intelligence, Data Governance, and Large Language Models (LLMs)
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. Machine-Learning Theory and Its Policy Implications

Author:
Naod Abraham
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The goal of this paper is to present an intuitive summary of computational learning theory, and its application for analyzing the most popular learning algorithms in machine learning, neural networks. This paper assumes no mathematical background or knowledge of machine learning from the reader. Throughout the paper, the important sections are presented using a pyramid approach (that is, in three levels). After introducing each major idea/topic, its policy implications and connection to Canada’s law are discussed. Finally, a summary of Canada’s relevant artificial intelligence law, with a case example, is given.
Topic:
Artificial Intelligence, Digital Policy, Emerging Technology, and Machine Learning
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

48. Competing Ideas: Canada’s Competition Reform Conversation

Author:
Vass Bednar and Keldon Bester
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
The Government of Canada’s recent review of and updates to the Competition Act have sparked a closer examination of how competition is protected and promoted in Canada. Competition affects all Canadians, especially in the face of rising costs of living and a shrinking number of competitors in key markets. Yet the laws that govern competition are not easily understood by average consumers, leaving them out of the public policy conversation. This paper looks at why better competition law is needed and examines previous reform efforts.
Topic:
Markets, Reform, Public Policy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

49. Breaking Barriers: The Link between Stronger IPRs and Trade in Services

Author:
Olena Ivus
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
As innovation becomes more prevalent and systematically integrated into service industries, service firms increasingly turn to intellectual property rights (IPRs) as a means of safeguarding their intellectual assets. The reliance on these legal rights becomes even more pronounced when service companies endeavour to expand their global reach and tap into international markets where the protection of IPRs is relatively weak, and imitation is more widespread. Disparities in the level of IPRs protection and enforcement across countries can pose significant barriers to cross-border trade and investment in service sectors where the safeguarding of intellectual property (IP) is fundamental. The risk of IP infringement and the limited protection afforded to patents, copyrights and trademarks in certain countries can discourage the expansion of businesses into these markets, limiting the overall growth and accessibility of services in those areas. This paper studies the relationship between trade in services and the strength of IPRs protection at the international level. More specifically, it uses data for 94 countries over the period of 1990–2010 to put forward new empirical evidence about the impact of global strengthening of IPRs protection on cross-border trade in services.
Topic:
Intellectual Property/Copyright, Investment, Trade, and Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

50. European Solar PV Manufacturing: Terminal Decline or Hope for a Rebirth?

Author:
Thibaud Voïta
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
While solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are booming in Europe (and in other parts of the world), the local industry is closing down. Over the past two years, the European installed solar PV capacity has been multiplied by two. On the other hand, the remaining European manufacturers of solar PV panels are dying. Installed solar PV capacities are experiencing an unprecedented increase in Europe: in two years, they have been multiplied by two with 60 gigawatts (GW) added in 2023. However, local solar PV manufacturers are not benefiting from it as the Chinese competition is knocking them down. Structurally much more competitive, prices of Chinese solar panels have further decreased by 42% in 2023 – making it difficult even for some Chinese companies to survive and forcing many of the remaining European manufacturers out of the market. This situation fragilizes Europe’s strategic autonomy and decarbonization. Covid-19-like disruption or an aggression against Taiwan would leave the continent without any supply. American manufacturers are also flexing their muscles with the aggressive Inflation Reduction Act. Europe’s answer, the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA), a tougher approach to China’s imports and national support measures, could create a new generation of solar PV manufacturers in Europe.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Solar Power, Decarbonization, Strategic Autonomy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe