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18381. Fiscal Decentralisation Economic Growth in High-Income OECD Countries

Author:
Ulrich Thießen
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Following a brief review of the benefits and shortcomings of fiscal decentralisation, the paper attempts to empirically analyse for high-income OECD countries the relationship between per capita economic growth, capital formation and total factor productivity growth, on the one hand, and indicators of fiscal decentralisation, on the other hand. The evidence appears to be consistent with the hypothesis that the benefits of fiscal decentralisation on economic growth and capital formation are limited. However, satisfactory indicators of fiscal decentralisation are yet not existing so that the results are subject to serious qualifications.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

18382. Asymmetric Labour Markets in a Converging Europe: Do Differences Matter?

Author:
Ray Barrell and Karen Dury
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Asymmetric economic structures across Europe may result in common shocks having asymmetric effects. In this paper we investigate whether the differences in the structure and dynamics that we observe in the European economies matter for policy design. In particular it is widely believed that labour market responses are different, with the structure of labour demand and the nature of the bargain over wages differing between countries. In addition the European economies move at different speeds in response to common shocks. In this paper we construct three different models of Europe, one where the labour market relationships are separately estimated and assumed to be different, one where the most statistically acceptable commonalties are imposed and one where common labour market relationships are imposed across all member countries. We use panel estimation techniques to test for the imposition of commonalties among countries. We find that it is possible to divide Europe into sub-groups, but it is not possible to have one model of European labour markets. We use stochastic simulation techniques on these different models of Europe and find that the preferred rule for the ECB is a combined nominal aggregate and inflation-targeting rule. We find that while this rule is dominant in all our models, the more inertia that is introduced into the labour markets, the more a nominal aggregate-targeting rule alone may be preferred. However, we conclude, that differences in the labour market transmission mechanisms across the European countries appear to have little influence on the setting of monetary policy for the ECB, although this depends on the relative importance of the different components in the welfare loss function.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

18383. Trade Jobs in Portugal: A Microeconomic Approach

Author:
Ana Rute Cardoso
Publication Date:
01-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The Portuguese economy presents a low unemployment rate when compared to its European counterparts and it has been claimed that this is partly due to the slow restructuring of the economy, which has been keeping its specialisation in traditional industries, some of them major exporting industries. This study analyses job creation and job destruction at the firm level across skill groups, during the 1980s and the 1990s. The major aim is to explore the role of international trade against alternative explanations of job flows, providing an answer to the question: did international trade help sustain the employment of particular groups of workers, namely the least skilled, in the Portuguese economy? Could conditions in international markets therefore have contributed to keep a low unemployment rate? A matched data set on workers and firms is used, which includes a direct measure of the skill of the worker. Results indicate that technology indicators are more relevant determinants of job flows than conditions in international product markets. Indeed, import prices have no impact on job creation or job destruction for the unskilled or on job creation for the skilled. Higher export prices lead to job creation for the skilled labour force, thus pointing to a certain skill upgrading.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe

18384. Kosovo: A Strategy for Economic Development

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kosovo cannot have a stable future without sustainable economic development. This report considers the task of promoting such development. After surveying the present state of the economy, it assesses the international efforts so far to lay the groundwork for future prosperity. It also considers the prospects for the former socially owned sector, including plans for privatisation and prospects for restructuring and investment.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

18385. Macedonia's Name: Why the Dispute Matters and How to Resolve It

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 16 November 2001, Macedonia's parliament passed a set of constitutional amendments that were agreed in August, when Macedonian and Albanian minority leaders signed the Ohrid Framework Agreement. Later that day, President Trajkovski clarified the terms of an amnesty for Albanian rebels, in line with international requests.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Government, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

18386. Bin Laden and the Balkans: the Politics of Anti-Terrorism

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The global focus on Islamist extremist-inspired terrorism resulting from the 11 September atrocities has raised the question of the potential for such terrorist activity in, or emanating from, the Balkans.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

18387. Bosnia: Reshaping the International Machinery

Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After six years and billions of dollars spent, peace implementation in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains far from complete. Reshaping (ërecalibratingí, in local jargon) the international community (IC) presence is vital if the peace process is to have a successful outcome.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

18388. Croatia: Facing Up To War Crimes

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 8 October 2001, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) confirmed an indictment charging Slobodan Milosevic, the former president of Serbia and of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), with crimes committed in Croatia. This indictment had been keenly awaited for years in Croatia, where a widespread perception of international indifference to Serb crimes perpetrated against Croats between 1991 and 1995 has been ably encouraged and manipulated by the right wing.
Topic:
Development, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Croatia

18389. Wages of Sin: Confronting Bosnia's Republika Srpska

Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
By recognising Republika Srpska (RS) as a legitimate polity and constituent entity of the new Bosnia, the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement embraced a contradiction. For the RS was founded as a stepping stone to a ëGreater Serbiaí and forged in atrocities against ñ and mass expulsions of ñ non-Serbs.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

18390. Serbia's Transition: Reforms Under Siege

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 3 August 2001 murder of former State Security (DB) official Momir Gavrilovic acted as a catalyst for the emergence of a long-hidden feud within Serbia's ruling DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) coalition. Inflamed by Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's closest advisers, the 'Gavrilovic Affair' has driven a wedge into DOS that could spell the end of the coalition in its present form. In so doing, Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) has been exposed more clearly than before as a conservative nationalist party intent on preserving certain elements of the Milosevic regime.
Topic:
Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Serbia

18391. Macedonia: Filling the Security Vacuum

Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The war option has, for the moment, been checked, but Macedonia is very far from being at peace. Neither the agreement signed on 13 August 2001 2 by the four Macedonian governing parties – two ethnic Macedonian, two ethnic Albanian – nor the subsequent limited NATO deployment, nor the first-stage approval of necessary constitutional amendments by the Macedonian parliament on 6 September have yet given anyone confidence that peace is sustainable. The parliamentary vote, for example, came only after an acrimonious debate in which markers were laid down that ultimate approval of the legislative package could not be taken for granted.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

18392. Albania's Parliamentary Elections 2001

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The Socialist Party's decision on 21 August to nominate Ilir Meta for another term as Prime Minister closed out the longest election in Albania's turbulent post-communist history. Voting for the parliament was held, extraordinarily, in four rounds on 24 June 2001, and 8, 22 and 29 July due to accusations of electoral fraud in various forms. It was, nevertheless, peaceful and produced a decisive victory for the ruling Socialist Party (SP). The Socialists, who have held power since 1997, won 73 seats in the 140-member legislature, against 46 for the Union for Victory (UfV) coalition, led by the Democratic Party (DP). The remaining 21 seats were allocated among five small parties, each of which gained the necessary 2.5 per cent of votes, and two independent candidates who won direct mandates. The results gave the Socialists a sufficient majority to form a new government and, crucially, with the aid of likely allies, to elect a new president in 2002 when the term of the incumbent, Rexhep Meidani, expires. Formation of that government, however, was delayed further weeks until the SP's General Steering Committee gave Meta an overwhelming victory in his bitter personal battle with the party chairman, Fatos Nano, who backed his own man for the prime minister's chair.
Topic:
Democratization, Nationalism, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Albania

18393. Macedonia: War on Hold

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Macedonian and Albanian political leaders signed a political agreement – hailed by its Western midwives as a peace agreement – on 13 August 2001. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson and the European Union's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, flew to Skopje to attend the signing ceremony. But the strange context of the signing showed just how implausible it is that, without further extraordinary efforts, the agreement will actually provide a workable way to keep multiethnic Macedonia out of civil war. Details of the agreement had been hammered out by 8 August in Ohrid, a resort town chosen for the negotiations because it was some distance away from the latest fighting. Signature was delayed five days, however, while Macedonian government troops and ethnic Albanian rebels engaged in the deadliest series yet of tit-for-tat retaliations. Terms of the agreement were withheld from the public lest they provoke violent responses from hardliners on both sides. The ceremony, when it finally occurred, was carried out almost furtively, in a small room of the President's residence, without live television.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

18394. Peace in Presevo: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution?

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The past decade in the Western Balkans has seen very few peacefully negotiated transfers of territorial control. The most recent example ñ albeit one not involving any change of sovereignty - was also the only one achieved by NATOís direct mediation. In May 2001, the Presevo Valley was brought back under Serbian government control, ending an ethnic Albanian insurgency that had lasted some seventeen months.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Balkans

18395. Bosnia's Precarious Economy: Still not Open for Business

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Bosnia's economic reality is still bleak. After more than five years and five billion dollars of Dayton implementation, the country seems only at the beginning of an economic transition that should have begun in 1996.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Bosnia and Eastern Europe

18396. Montenegro: Resolving the Independence Deadlock

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ten months after the fall of Slobodan Miloöević , considerable progress has been made in establishing democratic governance in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and reintegrating the country into the international community. Yet the future of the federation itself remains in doubt. The FRY is a hollow edifice whose institutions hardly function except as an address for the international community. Montenegroís authorities no longer recognise the legitimacy of the federal government. All sides agree that the status quo is unsustainable and that Montenegro and Serbia must find a new basis for their relationship.
Topic:
Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe

18397. Macedonia: Still Sliding

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Despite the ceasefire announced on 26 July 2001, and the promised resumption of political talks in Tetovo on 27 July, Macedonia is still locked in crisis and threatened by war. Neither ethnic Macedonian nor ethnic Albanian leaders have been converted to belief in a 'civic' settlement that would strengthen democracy by improving minority conditions, without weakening the integrity of the state. Ethnic Macedonians fear that civic reforms will transform the country exclusively to its, and their, detriment, while ethnic Albanians are sceptical that any reforms can really be made to work in their favour. Nor have separatists from both sides, within the country and in the diaspora, given up their conviction that security for their communities can only be achieved by demarcating – and hence competing for – ethnically “pure” territory.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania

18398. Milosevic in the Hague: What it Means for Yugoslavia and the Region

Publication Date:
07-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
On 28 June 2001, St Vitus's Day – an anniversary with enormous resonance in Yugoslavia – Serbian government transferred former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague. By this bold political move, the government demonstrated in the clearest way its will to break with the past. With the timing driven by the international donors conference scheduled for 29 June, the transfer also confirmed the effectiveness of conditioning economic assistance to Yugoslavia on concrete political progress.
Topic:
Security, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

18399. EU CRISIS RESPONSE CAPABILITY: Institutions and Processes for Conflict Prevention and Management

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
It is less than a decade since the European Union (EU) was formally established and set itself the ambitious project of developing a common foreign and security policy. Less than four years have passed since the signing of the Amsterdam Treaty which provided key institutional foundations of that policy. And it is less than eighteen months since many of the bodies responsible for implementing the most difficult aspects – those related directly to crisis response – have been created. This process may be well appreciated by those closely involved in it, but it is opaque and puzzling to many others. This report aims to clarify the process for those outside it. It describes the roles of the new bodies, their relationship to previously existing ones, and the basic fit between their functions and the goals of conflict prevention and management. This report is largely descriptive, but its analysis of the institutions and processes does provide a foundation for some recommendations for improvement as the EU carries its work forward.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe

18400. The European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO): Crisis Response in the Grey Lane

Publication Date:
06-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
This briefing paper examines in broad terms likely directions in the policy of the European Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO) in the next two to three years, with special reference to its position in the development of European Union (EU) crisis response structures and processes. Its particular focus is on how ECHO has responded to the "grey area" dilemmas: whether and how to separate emergency humanitarian assistance from longer term development assistance, and from "political" projects generally. Section I provides an overview of ECHO's structure and funding; Section II describes how the grey area has been addressed to date; Section III discusses how the issue arises again in the context of the development of the EU's new conflict prevention and management ambitions; while the concluding Section IV draws upon recent experience in Macedonia to support the case for a more pragmatic approach to ECHO's role.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
Europe and Macedonia