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72. Conclusion of Negotiations on the EU-India Trade Agreement
- Author:
- Patryk Kugiel and Damian Wnukowski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- The most important outcome of the 16th EU–India summit, which took place on January 27 in New Delhi, was the announcement of an agreement on a trade deal. When it comes into force, it will create one of the largest free trade areas in the world and open up a huge Indian market for goods and services from the EU. At a time of growing protectionism in international trade and power-based politics, strengthening economic ties between the EU and India takes on a strategic dimension.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Negotiation, Free Trade, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, and India
73. The Impact of Purges in the Chinese Army on Its Effectiveness
- Author:
- Marcin Przychodniak
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- Xi Jinping, as the Party’s secretary general, continues to strengthen his personal oversight of the Chinese armed forces, as evidenced by disciplinary actions against Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission. Combined with the purges that began in 2022, the growing atmosphere of uncertainty, and the increasing pressure to demonstrate loyalty to Xi, this raises the risk that the authorities will misjudge the condition of their armed forces. This may increase the likelihood of escalation, for example, towards Taiwan.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Reform, Xi Jinping, Escalation, Loyalty, and Purge
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, and Asia
74. Diplomacy in the Foreground. The New EU Migration Policy Framework
- Author:
- Jolanta Szymańska
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- The migration, asylum and visa strategies, presented at the end of January this year by the European Commission, set the framework for EU migration policy for the coming years. According to both documents' assumptions, migration diplomacy is intended to support the Union's security and global competitiveness priorities. The planned reforms aim to eliminate abuses of the asylum and visa system and to attract skilled workers and investment to the EU. The implementation of the strategy will be challenged by both instability in Europe's neighbourhood and the persistent reluctance of member states to accept migrants.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, European Union, Asylum, Visa, and Migration Policy
- Political Geography:
- Europe
75. The war in Iran: a test of the Gulf states' economic resilience
- Author:
- Julia Sochacka
- Publication Date:
- 03-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- Forecasts of the long-term economic consequences of the war in Iran for the Gulf states are unequivocally negative. The scale of the losses depends on whether the strategies for building economic resilience implemented by these countries can withstand the shock caused by regional destabilisation. Faced with Iran taking control of the Strait of Hormuz, the EU’s top priority in the short term will be to ensure energy security, and in the long term to diversify its economic partnerships.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, European Union, Resilience, Energy, and Regional Stability
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Gulf Nations
76. Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Heightens Tensions in the Horn of Africa
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 02-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
- Abstract:
- Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland as an independent state on 26 December last year triggered a series of dangerous processes in the Horn of Africa. These could lead to an escalation of armed conflicts within Somaliland’s declared borders and in its immediate vicinity. The EU should be guided in this matter by the criteria of legality and stability in the wider Horn of Africa.
- Topic:
- European Union, Borders, Armed Conflict, and Recognition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Somaliland
77. Beyond the wage channel: climate-smart public works programs and household resilience in Malawi
- Author:
- Tekalign Gutu Sakketa, Francesco Burchi, Sophia Schubert, and Donald Makoka
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- One of the main arguments for implementing public works programs (PWPs) instead of other social protection schemes such as cash transfers is that the assets created through these programs themselves can generate medium- to long-term benefits. This is particularly important as the costs for supervision and the construction materials can account for up to 70 per cent of program budgets. Despite this, there is scarce empirical evidence on PWPs' effects through the “asset channel”: indeed; most studies have focused solely on the traditional “wage channel”. To bridge this gap, this paper examines whether and how assets created under Malawi's Climate-Smart Enhanced Public Works Program (CS-EPWP) – a program recently implemented by the government of Malawi and funded by the World Bank – strengthen the resilience of households to climate shocks such as droughts and floods. The paper relies on case study analysis using primary qualitative data based on focus group discussions and key informant interviews with different stakeholders at the national, district and community levels. Interviews were conducted during fieldwork in September 2024 in two southern districts of Malawi highly affected by climate change. The analysis is complemented by site visits and quantitative survey data on asset quality. By combining these methods, we find that the CS-EPWP generates durable, community-maintained assets, which in turn enhance households' capacity to cope with and adapt to climate shocks. In particular, land-based assets provide multiple benefits for both households and communities, while forest-based interventions are expected to generate similar long-term gains, although further research is needed to confirm their (long-term) impacts. To maximize the impact of climate-smart public works programs, policymakers and donors should align asset creation with climate objectives and adopt participatory approaches to ensure their relevance, maintenance and long-term sustainability.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Resilience, and Public Works
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Malawi
78. What do the 2015 SDG negotiations teach us for a beyond-2030 framework?
- Author:
- Paula von Haaren and Axel Berger
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development – the global framework establishing 17 universal and interconnected goals to guide sustainable development efforts – was adopted in 2015 following a uniquely participative and ambitious process. A decade on, it is increasingly evident that most of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are unlikely to be achieved by 2030 as originally envisioned. Discussions about a follow-up framework beyond 2030 are gaining momentum ahead of the SDG Summit in September 2027. This paper evaluates the process design, inclusiveness, negotiating strategies, fora and fault lines in 2015 and discusses to what extent the lessons learned can be applied to negotiations for a potential follow-up framework. We find that several process design elements and negotiation strategies, as well as actor composition, fostered trust and ownership, reduced polarization and enabled agreements on ambitious targets. In particular, the process benefited from the inclusion of diverse, non-hierarchical actor communities, a long, science-based stocktaking phase, the breaking up of traditional negotiating blocks, transparency, and emphasis on common interests. We also identify several recurring fault lines that are overwhelmingly still relevant today. Apart from the above best practices of the process leading to the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, we identify several shortcomings that should be addressed in the beyond-2030 negotiations: inefficiencies due to competing tracks for the development of the goals; top-down agenda-setting processes leading to less ambitious outcomes; barriers to participation of and accountability towards some marginalized and informal actors; and the watering down of goals and indicators – including non-tangible targets and unresolved inconsistencies and trade-offs within the agenda. Finally, the paper argues that the beyond-2030 negotiations will take place in a context that is similar to the process that led to the SDGs but is nevertheless in many ways more challenging than in 2015, amidst intensifying crises, political shifts and loss of trust.
- Topic:
- Development and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
79. Geopolitics and development in Central Asia: exploring opportunities for middle powers
- Author:
- Hyeyoung Woo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
- Abstract:
- Central Asia has emerged as a key region where the convergence of geopolitics and development cooperation is most visible. Major powers are redefining their approaches: Japan combines official development assistance (ODA) with commercial partnerships to advance connectivity and reform; the EU is emphasizing a sustainable infrastructure and governance-oriented approach; the US is expected to catalyze private investment rather than direct aid; China deepens its regional presence through the Belt and Road Initiative; while Russia leverages historical and security ties to maintain influence. Meanwhile, middle powers – countries that do not wield vast influence like major powers but possess substantial capacity to shape international events – are exploring new opportunities for engagement. Türkiye positions itself as a bridge between advanced economies and the Global South, emphasizing connectivity and energy cooperation through the Middle Corridor and the Organization of Turkic States. South Korea's 2025 ODA Strategy for Central Asia identifies the region as a strategic partner for shared growth, integrating pragmatic diplomacy with value-based cooperation. By leveraging their soft power and policy experience, these middle powers offer a distinctive model for development partnership. Central Asian governments are responding to a changing international environment by diversifying partnerships through regional integration and more strategic engagement with development partners.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Strategic Partnerships, Middle Powers, and Private Investment
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia
80. The European strategic approach to technological security: the challenges posed by China
- Author:
- Earl Wang
- Publication Date:
- 01-2026
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
- Abstract:
- [1] Not only the US, but the EU and its Member States are also facing Chinese restrictions on foreign critical tech infrastructure. European telecom companies such as Nokia and Ericsson witness a drop by two-thirds in their market shares in China as compared to 2020. On the other way around, Chinese ‘high-risk suppliers’ of telecom networks such as Huawei and ZTE only encountered a 5-10% decline in Europe since EU institution and countries adopted the 5G cybersecurity toolbox in 2020. When it comes to European security in the cyber realm, we can also observe direct Chinese threats. Recent public cases of cyberattacks against France and the Czech Republic reminded us – again – of cybersecurity challenges from China which was also underlined by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Among other topics, critical technologies, cyber and digital infrastructure top the EU’s list of tech security preoccupation with regard to China. This paper provides an analysis of the strategic formulation of EU institutions and European countries on tech security vis-à-vis China from 2013 to 2022. Cases of countries covered in the paper include France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Czech Republic, and the United Kingdom. The paper is structured as follows. The first part studies the gradual awareness of security implications of Chinese investment in European critical technologies following China’s Made In China 2025 policy. In the second part, the paper examines the security threats posed by Chinese companies’ engagement in European digital infrastructure and the coordinated approach of the EU to secure 5G networks. The third part introduces the EU framework for investment screening as a new tool to address security concerns deriving from foreign investment in and acquisition of critical technologies and digital infrastructure. In the fourth part, the paper investigates European cybersecurity agencies and how cybersecurity has become a fast-growing concern of the EU and European countries in its relations with China. This paper showcases that the European Union and its Member States have incorporated the increasing link between security and technology in their strategic formulation of policy on China. More importantly, the effectiveness of the EU’s strategy in tech security highly relies on the coordination and cooperation among Member States and between the EU and national levels.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, European Union, and Cybersecurity
- Political Geography:
- China and Europe