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Begin New Search Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 25 Years

61. China Building Up BRICS as Important Foreign Policy Tool

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
BRICS is useful for China in its rivalry with the U.S., mainly as a tool to influence developing countries. It is also an important element of strategic cooperation with Russia and a platform for dialogue with India. China does not care about BRICS integration, instead it wants to consolidate the group’s participants to further China’s goals.. The EU’s response to this should include effective support for developing countries and a subjective approach to their demands for global governance.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, BRICS, Rivalry, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

62. The U.S. Pursues Increasingly Aggressive Policy towards Latin America

Author:
Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Donald Trump’s administration is seeking to rebuild U.S. influence in Latin America. It is trying to convince the countries of the region that cooperation with the United States will bring development and increased security to the Americas. For the time being, however, this approach mainly serves U.S. security interests, in particular combating irregular migration, organised crime and drug trafficking, and reducing China’s influence. The current administration’s threats, inconsistent positions, and expansionist drive will deepen the distrust of the U.S. and antagonise important Latin American partners.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Migration, Donald Trump, Strategic Interests, and Drug Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America and United States of America

63. U.S. Interest in Greenland Reflects the Ongoing Competition in the Arctic

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska and Paweł Markiewicz
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
President Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested his intention to attach Greenland to the U.S., a move that has met with opposition from the Greenlandic and Danish governments. The pressure from the U.S. is one manifestation of its aspirations to strengthen its position in the North Atlantic, both because of the strategic importance of the island and the growing international rivalries in the Arctic. The situation will require greater EU and NATO involvement in the High North, as well as consideration of this perspective by countries outside the region, such as Poland.
Topic:
NATO, European Union, Donald Trump, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Greenland, Arctic, and United States of America

64. Baltic and Nordic States Assess the Russian Military Threat

Author:
Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The newest intelligence reports by the Baltic and Nordic states jointly warn about the aggressive intentions and reconstitution of Russia’s armed forces. All of the documents assume the successful implementation of plans for larger Russian land and airborne forces till the end of 2026. However, these reports differ in the estimates of when the political moment and Russia’s conventional capabilities may permit it to initiate open conflict with NATO. Despite their informational and analytical contents, these reports may affect the Baltic region states’ capabilities development plans and their decisions about whether to increase defence spending.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Nordic Nations, and Baltic States

65. İmamoğlu Arrested: Türkiye Shifting to Autocracy

Author:
Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Demonstrations in Türkiye erupted in March when the Istanbul prosecutor’s office launched an investigation of that city’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), the main opponent of current head of state Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2028 presidential contest. The attack on the opposition candidate appears to be a turning point indicating Türkiye’s entry onto the path of authoritarianism, which will negatively affect the state of Turkish-EU relations.
Topic:
European Union, Domestic Politics, Autocracy, and Ekrem İmamoğlu
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

66. Global health at a crossroads: policy recommendations in light of the Lancet Global Health 2050 Report

Author:
Christoph Strupat, Marco Schäferhoff, Martin Siegel, and Anna-Katharina Hornidge
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
At a time of global crisis and competing priorities, investing in health is among the most impactful and cost-effective decisions governments and stakeholders can make. Beyond being a fundamental right, health is a catalyst for growth, stability and resilience – particularly in uncertain times. The new Global Health 2050: the path to halving premature death by mid-century (Global Health 2050) report (Jamison et al., 2024) of the Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (the Commission) builds on a legacy of evidence-driven reports to provide strategies for making health a cross-cutting enabler of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Global Health 2050 provides a roadmap for further health improvements in all countries by mid-century, arguing that by 2050 countries can reduce by 50% the probability of premature death (PPD) in their populations. The Commission calls this goal “50 by 50”. Germany has solidified its role in global health through significant investments in the health sector and by designating global health as a political priority, as demonstrated by its Global Health Strategy and the inclusion of global health as one of the core themes of the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). Given this political priority, it is essential to assess the implications of the Global Health 2050 report for Germany’s global health agenda, especially as global health stands at a crossroads following the withdrawal of the United States (US) from the World Health Organization (WHO) and cuts to its global health programmes. Therefore, the aim of this policy brief is to build upon the Commission’s findings and draw from scientific evidence to provide key recommendations for Germany’s global health agenda. Five recommendations have been synthesised that align with Germany’s global health engagement and offer promising strategies to help achieve the 50 by 50 goal: 1. Sustain or ideally increase funding for the Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance, and the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria at the upcoming replenishment conferences and strengthen Germany’s global health leadership through strong bilateral support, investments in pandemic preparedness and response (PPR) and better interministerial coordination. 2. Reconsider non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in future strategic direction of German international cooperation by reducing financial and geo-graphical barriers to access to medicines and addressing key NCD risk factors. 3. Promote health taxes on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages that can serve as an effective strategy to improve public health and generate domestic revenue. 4. Increase funding for R&D in neglected diseases. Expand regional manufacturing, and enhance global health innovation coordination to strength-en global health security and reduce dependence on external supply chains. 5. Nepal serves as a good example of Germany’s bilateral health and social protection support: advancing the 50 by 50 goal could be achieved by strengthening national health insurance, addressing climate risks, expanding health taxes and enhancing pharmaceutical access through the Arrow mechanism.
Topic:
Development, Investment, Public Health, Global Health, and Disease
Political Geography:
Global Focus

67. Can guarantees effectively leverage financing for SMEs in low- and middle-income countries?

Author:
Bao-We-Wal Bambe
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will require significant financing and investment, particularly as growing challenges from climate events highlight the insufficiency of public funds to meet the 2030 Agenda (World Economic Forum 2024). Private capital for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) surged in recent years, with significant commitments from multilateral development banks (MDBs). However, the financing gap to achieve the SDGs remains sizable, highlighting the need for greater effort to mobilise much larger private capital for sustainable development. In recent years, guarantees have emerged as a key leveraging mechanism. They are designed to mitigate high investment risks to support private capital mobilisation in LMICs. However, despite some progress, guarantees are used sparingly, suggesting considerable scope for increasing their scale, as highlighted by the G20 Independent Expert Group (IEG). This Policy Brief examines whether guarantees can serve as an effective leveraging mechanism for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This is especially so because SMEs remain largely hampered by poor access to finance, despite their key role in providing jobs for the local population and contributing to economic growth. Moreover, in the face of climate change, SME adaptation requires new investments in climate-resistant technologies and clean energies, highlighting the need for additional financing amid severe constraints on access to capital. Guarantees can complement other leveraging mechanisms, further easing financing constraints for SMEs in LMICs. Guarantees can absorb some of the risks associated with investment, offering financial institutions greater security. This added security can, in turn, help improve access to capital for SMEs. On the other hand, they can also help catalyse private sector investment in LMICs. Recognising both the potential benefits and short-comings of guarantees, this Policy Brief provides the following policy recommendations on how guarantees could be extended efficiently to the SME sector in LMICs. • Guarantees should be directed at financial institu-tions to mitigate portfolio risk and actively promote lending to small projects or SMEs in high-risk sectors, particularly those with the potential to generate substantial economic, environmental, or social benefits. • Complement guarantees with additional measures to improve SMEs’ financial management, enhance risk assessment, and strengthen technical capacity through professional training and advisory services. • Implement partial credit guarantees to require financial institutions to retain a share of the risk, thereby reducing moral hazard and promoting rigorous analyses of borrowers’ creditworthiness. Complement these guarantees with conditionalities and monitoring criteria, such as regular reporting, to ensure the incrementality and additionality of guaranteed financing. Enhance the harmonisation of guarantees with other leveraging mechanisms, improve coordination among MDBs and DFIs, and streamline guarantee frameworks to achieve greater efficiency. • Recognise that guarantees alone cannot address structural vulnerabilities and institutional weakness in LMICs; a long-term commitment from decision-makers is essential to improve institutional and economic performance.
Topic:
Development, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

68. Overcoming silos for One Health: key determinants of One Health governance platforms in low- and lower middle-income countries

Author:
Christoph Strupat
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This study addresses a critical gap in One Health governance literature by providing a comprehensive review of cross-sectoral One Health governance platforms in low- and lower-middle-income countries across Asia and Africa. These platforms are pivotal for building resilience and improving governance at the human–animal–environment interface. Using a scoping review methodology, the study identifies 34 One Health platforms established across 52% of these countries, with a primary focus on zoonotic diseases and a growing emphasis on antimicrobial resistance and food safety. A polycentric governance lens was applied to analyse the interplay of authority, resources and information in shaping platform functionality. Key findings highlight that authority imbalances and single-sector dominance undermine stakeholder engagement, insufficient financial and human resources hinder operational capacity. Further­more, weak data-sharing protocols limit timely coordination and evidence-based decision-making. The review identifies critical entry points for enhancing platform efficacy: clarifying governance frameworks, investing in cross-sectoral human capacity-building and strengthening data-sharing infrastructures with robust protocols and interoperable platforms.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

69. Financing for development: from Monterrey to Seville

Author:
Stephan Klingebiel, Jorge A. Pérez-Pineda, and Kathrin Berensmann
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The United Nations financing for development process, including the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) in Seville in 2025, is an important building block to foster global cooperation amid the current geopolitical tensions and multiple crises that have led to increased development financing needs on the one hand, and increased spending on the other, with the OECD estimating that the financing gap in funding required for developing countries to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals is $3.9 trillion per year. Against this backdrop, a coordinated international effort is essential to increase the scale and effectiveness of development financing and promote sustainable development globally, particularly in line with the 2030 Agenda. The overarching goal of the FfD process, including FfD4, is to mobilise adequate financial resources for the sustainable development of countries in the Global South, and to design appropriate architectures for development and sustainable finance. The FfD process is unique in that it takes a holistic approach, involving all sources of development finance and all public and private stakeholders. In this respect, the FfD process has an extraordinary convening power. The purpose of this Discussion Paper is to provide meaningful input to the preparatory process of FfD4 by offering insights into key challenges, opportunities and innovative approaches. The paper aims to contribute to the broader dialogue on financing for sustainable development and support informed decision-making for a robust and inclusive development agenda beyond 2030. Topics range from reforms of official development assistance, innovative approaches to private-sector and sustainable finance, and innovative reforms of multilateral development banks.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and OECD
Political Geography:
Global Focus and Global South

70. How to deal with the current debt crisis of developing countries?

Author:
Jürgen K. Zattler
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Many countries are still struggling with high and rising debt levels. The economic impact of the pandemic, as well as some longer-term structural factors, explain this situation. The key problem is the high level of debt service relative to government revenues, which makes it difficult to address growing development, social and climate challenges. As this is a particular problem for low-income countries (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs), the focus should be on these countries. But even within this group, the situation is not uniform. A differentiated approach with different components is therefore needed, depending on countries’ individual situations and their own priorities and choices. There have been many contributions to this debate and proposals on how to address the current problems. This paper builds on some of those contributions presenting a practical and coherent approach to address the current debt crisis which focuses as far as possible on incentives for debtor countries and private creditors. Importantly, a distinction should be made between countries with high debt levels that are at risk of debt distress and those with liquidity problems. Therefore, debt sustainability assessments (DSAs) are needed to decide which countries (a) are not in debt distress, (b) have an insolvency problem, and (c) have a liquidity problem. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank should be asked to classify all LICs and LMICs accordingly, based on updated DSAs, using a prudent approach with conservative projections. These DSAs must emphasise debt service indicators. For countries with liquidity problems, they need to identify those countries where the problem is of a longer-term nature, with a risk that the liquidity squeeze will turn into acute debt distress. All LICs and LMICs facing insolvency or liquidity problems should be offered a moratorium similar to the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) to give them breathing space (of 2-3 years). The expectation is that this would help countries with liquidity problems to maintain basic social and economic services until market conditions improve or debt relief is implemented. In cases where debt service remains high after the moratorium expires, the country would be expected to request debt relief. Countries at risk of default would be expected to use the period of the moratorium to engage promptly in restructuring discussions and to prepare negotiations with creditors on a debt relief programme. The IMF would make its resources conditional on a suspension of debt service payments. The question is whether private creditors, including sovereign bondholders, should be required to participate. It is suggested that a distinction be made between two categories of countries. For countries at risk of insolvency, including those with longer-term liquidity problems, the moratorium should be conditional on private participation on comparable terms, as their creditworthiness is likely to be affected anyway. In contrast, with countries facing short-term liquidity problems the approach should be more flexible. While pressure on private creditors to join a standstill should be maximised, this should be complemented by strong incentives. Countries with unsustainable debt would request treatment under a reformed G20 Common Framework for Debt Treatment (CF) with the option of a more comprehensive debt relief arrangement (“CF+”), including the following enhanced or new components: • At the beginning of the process, countries would have to present a “Just Green Transition Programme” (JGTP), monitored by the IMF and the World Bank. • The CF+ would be accompanied by more comprehensive debt relief, thus creating more fiscal space to allow the country to finance transformational and social investments. Debt service after rescheduling should be based on DSAs, which pay greater attention to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) investments and countries’ particular circumstances, leaving countries with substantial room to absorb shocks. The objective would be to limit the debt burden to external creditors as a share of revenue after rescheduling to around 10-15 per cent. • For those countries where a large part of the debt service will be due to multilateral creditors, the involvement of multilateral institutions should be considered. This should be the case for those multilateral creditors which are not willing, or able, to provide positive net flows at highly concessional terms. • The issuance of “Brady-like” bonds could be considered for specific country cases. The issuance of Brady-like bonds could be an incentive to maximise private creditor participation in exchanging old debt for new bonds with a significant discount or “haircut”.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Sustainability, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

71. Carbon leakage through supply chain adjustments

Author:
Hanyi Wang
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper examines carbon leakage through supply chain recalibration in response to European carbon policies. Using input-output data and a high-frequency identification approach for carbon policy shocks, this paper investigates whether stringent carbon regulations in Europe affect the imports of carbon-intensive inputs from major emerging economies lacking similar policies. The findings reveal a temporary increase in the rate of change of imports from emerging countries relative to all inputs in the carbon-intensive sectors following carbon policy shocks, with effects peaking after two years before dissipating. While not directly quantifying emissions transfer, this study suggests some evidence of short-term input substitution patterns consistent with carbon leakage through international supply chains.
Topic:
Carbon Emissions, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Europe

72. Local feminist perspectives as transformation levers for greater gender equality: synthesis study

Author:
Jacqueline Götze, Stephan Klingebiel, and Maryam Khalid
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The significance of gender equality needs to be spotlighted since women and LGBTQIA* communities are prone to become victims of violence and have limited participation in political and decision-making processes. The approaches of feminist development policies and feminist foreign policies have been criticised for their potential inapplicability to diverse contexts and for perpetuating paternalistic or neo-colonial behaviours. The global rise of right-wing policies has influenced politics, prompting researchers on feminist policies to critically examine their limitations and the ways they have been institutionalised. The present study builds on the expertise, knowledge and experiences of partners from Ghana, India and Ukraine. It introduces local feminist perspectives as levers for transformative change for greater gender equality that can produce context-specific alternative approaches to development processes by addressing prevailing norms and practices, and thereby enhance access to resources and improve the political participation of women, girls and members of the LGBTQIA* communities. This synthesis study identifies common themes, challenges and opportunities across the three case studies prepared by the partner organisations through a combination of deductive and inductive processes. We have developed a matrix of 13 criteria, which can be categorised into five thematic clusters that include: intersectionality, special characteristics of local feminisms and gender (in)equalities, multi-directional flow of norms, challenges and opportunities for gender-transformative change, and future of gender-transformative policies. Key findings reveal persistent barriers faced by local feminist perspectives in influencing policy, decision-making and gender norms due to limited possibilities and restricted opportunities.
Topic:
Feminism, LGBT+, Decision-Making, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Ukraine, India, and Ghana

73. Local feminist perspectives as transformative levers: women’s health and climate action in India

Author:
Sreerupa Sengupta, Divya Singhal, and Ananya Chakraborty
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This study explores the transformative potential of local feminist perspectives in addressing systemic gender inequalities in India, focusing on women’s health and climate action. Anchored in global frameworks, such as the Beijing Declaration (1995) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and rooted in India’s historical milestones, such as the Towards Equality Report in 1974 (Government of India, 1974), this research examines how caste, class, gender, sexuality and disability intersect to perpetuate inequities. Despite progress in education, health, and political representation, deep-seated patriarchal norms and structural barriers continue to undermine women’s agency, as reflected in India’s low ranking on the Global Gender Gap Report 2024 (World Economic Forum, 2024). Using intersectional and eco-feminist frameworks, the study employs a qualitative, multi-method approach, including 31 key informant interviews and a stakeholder dialogue involving 40 participants from non-governmental organisations (NGOs), community organisations and feminist collectives. By integrating lived experiences with policy analysis, this study highlights how local feminist movements in India have challenged entrenched social norms, amplified marginalised voices and innovated to provide context-specific solutions. The findings reveal persistent health inequities among women, compounded by caste and disability, and critique health policies for their technocratic focus. Interventions by community organisations as well as governments, such as community health workers and self-help groups, have emerged as vital platforms for addressing reproductive and menstrual health needs while fostering social change. In climate action, women face disproportionate vulnerabilities due to caregiving roles and resource dependencies. However, localised initiatives, including women-led renewable energy programmes and sustainable agriculture practices, showcase their potential as agents of environmental resilience. The study advocates for recognising intersectional vulnerabilities, converging across sectors, improving participatory governance, strengthening capacity building of community organisations, and including divergent experiences of women in policy and intersectional funding models. By situating feminist knowledge within actionable frameworks, it presents a replicable model for integrating gender justice into health and climate strategies, offering lessons for global contexts. The report underscores the necessity of sustained collaboration among community actors, women’s advocacy groups, policymakers and donors to foster systemic equity and resilience.
Topic:
Climate Change, Women, Sustainable Development Goals, and Feminism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

74. Local feminist perspectives as transformation levers for sustainable development in Ukraine in the context of ongoing defence

Author:
Olena Strelnyk, Liudmyla Yuzva, and Tamara Zlobina
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The research in this discussion paper explores the significant role of feminist perspectives and actions in fostering sustainable gender-transformative changes within Ukraine, particularly during the ongoing defence against Russian aggression. It highlights the ability of feminist movements to catalyse long-term shifts towards gender equality and social inclusion, with a focus on women’s and LGBT+ rights. Despite the challenges of war, feminist activists continue to push for transformative policies that not only address immediate wartime needs, but also lay the foundation for gender-responsive defence, inclusive recovery and post-war reconstruction. This study examines the impact of feminist actions and perspectives on various sectors of Ukrainian society, the barriers they face and the opportunities that remain for strengthening feminist policies during and after the war. The research timeline spans 2014-2024, corresponding to the duration of Russia’s war against Ukraine, with a particular emphasis on the period of the full-scale invasion from 2022 to 2024.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Feminism, LGBT+, Russia-Ukraine War, Sustainable Development, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

75. Feminists’ perspectives as transformative levers in Ghana

Author:
Fidelia N. A. Ohemeng, Deda Ogum, Deborah Tayo Akakpo, and Dorcas Coker-Appiah
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Ghana is a multi-party, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, with a dominant influence of socio-cultural norms and practices that impact negatively on women in their everyday lives. Most Ghanaians are subject to customary law which discriminates against women, even though Ghana practises legal pluralism. The overall aim of the study is to explore and analyse contemporary feminist perspectives and organising in Ghana to demonstrate how they can be used as levers for transformative change for greater equality and sustainable development. This was a cross-sectional and fully qualitative study involving 35 feminists and women’s rights advocates between the ages of 37 and 80+ years, with the majority (n=25) having over 20 years of experience and relevant postgraduate degrees. Data collection, analysis and conceptualisation were guided by the gender-transformative approach and the gender at work frameworks. Our findings show that gender inequity occurs in both formal and informal spaces. Strongly held socio-cultural norms emanating from patriarchy influence women’s daily lives, and the decisions made within sub-national and national legislature. Feminist strategies span general awareness creation, through lobbying, writing and reviewing of content for policies and laws, increasing the visibility of bills to picketing to ensure the passage and implementation of applicable laws or policies. Participants consider their strategies successful despite challenges such as backlash, burnout, and the lack of funding for their activities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Education, Feminism, Sustainable Development, Gender Equality, and Customary Law
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

76. Intersecting constraints: exploring labour market barriers for urban women in Sub-Sahara Africa

Author:
Alexander Stöcker
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This study examines the determinants of female labour force participation (FLFP) and female wage employment (FWE) of urban women in four SSA countries: Benin, Senegal, Uganda and Zambia. Using extensive micro-level data and a unified empirical framework, we investigate the multitude of constraints women face in both these dimensions. The methodology tries to bridge the drawbacks of typical macro-level cross-country studies and detailed country case studies, enabling direct comparisons over time and across countries. Key findings highlight substantial cross-country heterogeneity in barriers to female employment, including education, household wealth, motherhood, and male breadwinner norms. While higher education consistently enhances FLFP and FWE, motherhood negatively affects wage employment more persistently than labour force participation. Interaction effects between barriers, such as motherhood and male breadwinner norms, underscore their compounded impact. Additionally, local labour market conditions, namely the variety of occupations available, moderate these barriers, amplifying disadvantages for women in labour markets with higher levels of occupational variety. The study emphasises the importance of context-specific policy interventions. Recommendations include vocational training in Benin, advocacy for shifting restrictive norms in Senegal, targeted support for labour market transitions in Uganda, and addressing male breadwinner norms in Zambia. Future research should delve deeper into how labour market transitions influence female employment and how negative consequences can be remedied.
Topic:
Women, Employment, Labor Market, and Wages
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Senegal, Zambia, Benin, and Sub-Saharan Africa

77. Trump’s assault on foreign aid: implications for international development cooperation

Author:
Sebastian Haug, Anna Novoselova, and Stephan Klingebiel
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The United States of America has long been a leading force in international development cooperation, both politically and financially. However, the first weeks of the second Trump administration have called the traditional role of US foreign aid fundamentally into question. From a 90-day funding freeze to the withdrawal from United Nations (UN) bodies and the dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), measures taken by Trump and his team are not only having palpable repercussions on a wide range of humanitarian and development programmes, but they also point to more far-reaching implications. Against this backdrop, this paper presents the contours and discusses the global consequences of Trump’s assault on US foreign aid, as of late February 2025. We outline the extant role of the United States as a donor in Section 2 and review the changes announced – and/or implemented – by the current US government in Section 3. Section 4 discusses the implications of US funding cuts for bilateral cooperation, while Section 5 focuses on repercussions on multilateral development work. Section 6 outlines three scenarios on how the ongoing changes in the United States might affect the field of international development. We discuss the possible ramifications of (a) a revamped US approach to foreign aid centring on crude national interests, (b) a US retreat that is at least partially offset by other providers and (c) a US retreat without other providers stepping in. Section 7 concludes by discussing the implications for dealing with the second Trump administration. We outline four recommendations that address stakeholders across the – increasingly outdated – donor–recipient divide: (1) refining development cooperation approaches, (2) strengthening the multilateral development system, (3) promoting Southern self-reliance and (4) fostering alliances beyond a Trump-led US government.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, International Development, Donald Trump, and USAID
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

78. Macroprudential policies and private domestic investment in developing countries: an instrumental variables approach

Author:
Bao-We-Wal Bambe
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the effect of macroprudential policies on private domestic investment using a panel of 87 developing countries from 2000 to 2017. Our instrumental variables strategy exploits the geographic diffusion of macroprudential policies across countries, with the idea that reforms in neighbouring countries can affect the adoption or strengthening of domestic reforms through peer pressure or imitation effects. The findings indicate that the tightening of macro-prudential policies significantly reduces private domestic investment. This effect holds for both instruments targeting borrowers and those targeting financial institutions, and is subject to heterogeneity depending on several economic and institutional factors. The transmission channel analysis highlights that the negative impact of macroprudential policies on investment is primarily driven by a reduction in credit supply and financial inclusion.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Finance, Investment, and Macroprudential Policies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

79. From polarisation to autocratisation: the role of information pollution in Brazil's democratic erosion

Author:
Anita Breuer
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This study explores the complex relationship between information pollution, polarisation, and democracy in Brazil, a country that has recently experienced both democratic erosion and a pivotal democratic “U-turn”. Information pollution – the dissemination of false, misleading or harmful information – has become a global challenge, undermining societal peace and demo-cratic stability. In Brazil, these dynamics have been particularly pronounced, reflecting deep-seated socioeconomic inequalities and the impact of disinformation in an increasingly polarised political landscape. Grounded in a holistic analytical framework, this study moves beyond the narrow conception of countering disinformation as a challenge confined to the digital space. By incorporating socio-economic, media, legislative and political contexts into the analysis, it provides a comprehensive understanding of the factors that facilitate the emergence of information pollution. By doing so, the framework also enables the formulation of tailored policy recommendations that consider the distinct characteristics of Brazil’s context, while offering lessons relevant to other countries facing similar challenges. The analysis of the socioeconomic and social context highlights how in Brazil, persisting poverty and inequalities and the digital divide restrict access to diverse information sources, leaving marginalised groups disproportionately vulnerable to disinformation and hate speech. In this environment, hate speech targeting black women and members of the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer (and others) (LGBTQ+) community has been a prominent driver of polarisation, which exacerbates the discrimination and marginalisation of individuals at the intersection of race, gender and sexual orientation. The characteristics of the Brazilian media landscape and information ecosystem further fuelled these dynamics. Highly concentrated media ownership and declining traditional journalism have undermined information diversity and opinion plurality. At the same time, digital platforms have become fertile ground for the spread of polarising narratives, driven by the rise of politainment and political messaging disguised as religious truth by influential evangelical leaders. Within Brazil’s regulatory and institutional context, outdated legislation on internet governance has left significant gaps in the oversight of digital platforms. The implementation of existing transparency legislation is deficient and fragmented. Political interference and the misuse of secrecy laws have further undermined transparency mechanisms. Against this backdrop, state transparency offerings provide an inadequate counterweight to disinformation circulating on digital platforms. The political context has exacerbated these challenges, with cultural and ideological divides exploited by political actors to erode trust in democratic institutions. Disinformation played a central role during the administration of Jair Bolsonaro who pursued a grievance-based mobilisation strategy, amplifying societal divisions by exploiting narratives around corruption, inequality and moral values. This approach triggered a process of affective polarisation, with religious rhetoric playing a significant role in framing political opponents as existential threats to traditional and conservative values. Across all these contexts, vulnerabilities, such as low digital literacy, concentrated media consumption, and societal cleavages, amplify the impact of information pollution. This study finds that information pollution has fuelled affective polarisation, fostering mistrust, hostility, and violence, which in turn has jeopardised key elements of democratic quality, including respect for counterarguments, electoral integrity, institutional checks and balances, and public accountability and lastly support for democracy itself. The findings of this study point to critical entry points for addressing information pollution. At the national level, strengthening Brazil’s transparency regime emerges as a key priority, particularly by making access to public information more inclusive and enhancing the autonomy of institutions tasked with upholding transparency. The modernisation of Brazil’s internet governance framework is equally important, requiring broad based publication consultations and robust mechanisms for platform accountability. To ensure impartiality, authorities tasked with overseeing internet governance must maintain sufficient independence from the executive branch and should feature a cross-sectoral, multi-stakeholder composition, incorporating voices from civil society, academia, technical experts, and the private sector. At the international level, enhancing cross-border collaboration is paramount. The Global Digital Compact adopted in 2024 offers an important foundation for promoting shared technological solutions and fostering multilateral cooperation. Regional organisations in Latin America, such as the Organization of American States (OAS) and the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), also have a critical role to play in harmonising regulations and strengthening digital governance. Brazil’s recent experience illustrates the complex interplay between structural enablers, digital dynamics, and political strategies that drive polarisation and democratic erosion. At the same time, its ability to reverse autocratisation at the ballot box provides valuable lessons for curbing information pollution and fostering democratic resilience worldwide.
Topic:
Polarization, Autocracy, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

80. Hybrid threats: the new horizons for a "Europe of internal security"?

Author:
Jean Mafart
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Even today, most of our fellow citizens are unaware that the European Union is actively involved in the fight against terrorism, money laundering and drug trafficking, in border protection and in the harmonisation of criminal legislation[1]. This is why a European internal security strategy, ProtectEU published by the Commission on April 1st is important : it defines the European Union's work programme for the coming years, within the framework of the guidelines laid down by the European Council. The assessment of the previous internal security strategy (for the period 2020-2025) shows that this kind of programme has real scope: the Commission announced numerous initiatives that were actually completed, even if, as time goes by, the action inevitably deviates from the initial intentions in response to circumstances. Since the successive strategies are work programmes for a given period, none of them really resembles the previous one. On the other hand, the major underlying themes vary relatively little: terrorism, organised crime and external border control were, as it is the case today, key concerns of the ‘founding fathers’ of the ‘area of freedom, security and justice’ (AFSJ). The doubling of the staff of Europol, the agency responsible which supports Member States in the fight against crime, and the tripling of the staff of the European Border Guard, which are part of the Frontex agency, are also the most spectacular proposals of the new strategy, even if they had already been voiced by the President of the Commission at the beginning of her second term. The arrival of a new theme is therefore bound to attract attention: in this case, it is striking to see the space given over to hybrid threats (a whole chapter, eight pages out of the thirty in the document published on 1 April). A sad sign of the times: it is no longer conceivable to develop an internal security policy without addressing, alongside the more ‘traditional’ themes, the growing threat of destabilisation operations of all kinds coming from Russia or elsewhere. The link between the internal and external dimensions of security is obviously nothing new: in France, the White Paper on defence and national security published in 2008 already considered that ‘the distinction between internal and external security is no longer relevant’. Current geopolitical tensions and the development of hybrid threats are blatantly reinforcing this. How can the ‘internal security of Europe’, initially conceived to respond to internal issues - compensating for the effects of free movement between Member States - adapt to take better account of threats from the outside?
Topic:
Security, European Union, and Hybrid Threats
Political Geography:
Europe