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121. European support to the defence industry - Mid-term review of the European Defence Fund

Author:
Nicolas-Jean Brehon
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Poland has made security one of its top priorities during its Presidency of the Council (January-June 2025). Almost a year ago, the Commission presented a European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) aimed at strengthening European industrial capabilities. If implemented, this programme will bolster the European Defence Fund (EDF), launched in 2021 and which has already financed one hundred and sixty-two armaments industry programmes. Cooperation projects are numerous and extensive. The programmes selected by the Commission bring together an average of seventeen entities, and it takes care to appoint coordinating leaders in almost all the Member States. Questions are now beginning to emerge. After three years, it is useful to draw up a mid-term review to inform future choices.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:
Europe

122. Greenland: a geostrategic challenge for the European Union in the age of Trump 2.0

Author:
André Gattolin
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Donald Trump's return to the White House confirms, after a first term marked by an attempt to buy Greenland, that the Arctic Island is a critical geopolitical issue for the United States - and that it should also be the same for the European Union. The new situation, in which the military threat has become a factor, is forcing the European Union to rethink its relationship with Greenland and, more broadly, with the North in a clearly strategic way. What does Donald Trump really want? Is he serious about annexing Greenland? Is he prepared to do whatever it takes, including military action, to make it happen? Why should the United States want to appropriate this territory? More generally, are we witnessing a change of direction by Washington in its Nordic and transatlantic relations? What does this mean for Europe? Do we have the means to resist at a time when the United States is talking about its possible withdrawal from NATO and threatening the world, and therefore the European Union, with a significant increase in customs duties? The question of the future of this Arctic territory that sits at the crossroads of Europe and America is far from anecdotal. The shock provoked by Donald Trump is all the greater given that the subject has long been neglected by European chancelleries. Even Denmark, on which the island has depended for more than two centuries, has to admit that it had not sufficiently considered the geostrategic importance of Greenland.
Topic:
European Union, Transatlantic Relations, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Greenland and Arctic

123. Polish Presidency of the Council - A paradigm shift in Poland's European policy

Author:
Piotr Buras and Michał Matlak
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Poland is holding the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in the first half of 2025. After a controversial Hungarian presidency and political turbulence in France and Germany, European public opinion is looking to Poland, where an openly Eurosceptic government was ousted in the 2023 elections. This change has come at a time when the European Union is facing major existential challenges, in particular with the war in Ukraine, which are especially resonant in Poland. The hopes pinned on Poland are as much a reflection of the impression of a leadership vacuum in Europe that Warsaw - who else at the moment? - could fill, as well as the country's growing economic and geopolitical position after two decades of EU membership.
Topic:
Public Opinion, European Union, Geopolitics, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

124. Between the Baltic and the Balkans, the new geopolitics of gas

Author:
Gilles Lepesant
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
On December 31, 2024, the gas transit agreement signed in 2019 between the Ukrainian grid operator and Russia expired. As the Ukrainian government had refused to negotiate a renewal of the agreement in advance, gas flows to European markets were suspended. Announced several months ago, Ukraine's opposition to extend its gas transit agreement with Russia (Kyiv is now self-sufficient in gas) marks a new stage in the reshaping of Central Europe's natural gas geography. This process was initiated in the early 1990s and gathered pace with the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russia halted gas exports via the Nord Stream pipeline and via Belarus in the summer of 2022, and flows through Ukraine were significantly reduced before ceasing altogether. Since January 1st 2025, only the Turk Stream pipeline supplies European countries with Russian gas by land. Central Europe has been particularly hard hit by the gas crisis that started in 2022. Gas plays an important role in this region, not least because of the need for heating and the importance of the manufacturing sector in the region's economies. Gas production is growing slightly in Hungary, Poland and, above all, Romania. But the volumes extracted make only a modest contribution to the region's energy security. Moreover, several central European countries have for several decades enjoyed transit fee revenues. Finally, most of them are landlocked or have short coastlines. All of these factors make Central Europe a unique region. Added to this is the legacy of the Communist period, when energy policies favoured coal, and for which gas is now a often seen as an alternative. In this particular context, energy flows between the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea are changing. This is reflected not only in a contraction of flows from Russia, but also in an intensification of north-south or south-north flows, and a growing interdependence between the states of the region, as well as with certain member states of the European Union.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Gas, Exports, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Balkans, Central Europe, and Baltic States

125. Long-term Effects of the Refugee Crisis on Greek Public Opinion Regarding Immigration

Author:
Nicholas Sambanis and Carlos di Bonifacio
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
Analyzing data from the European Social Survey (ESS), we explore macro-level effects of the 2015 refugee crisis on public attitudes toward immigration in Greece. Contrary to the belief that the crisis hardened Greeks’ attitudes toward immigration, we find no evidence of a significant negative effect that persists over time. Indeed, we observe a slight improvement in immigration attitudes since a low point that occurred during Greece’s foreign debt crisis. More broadly, the commonly held belief that European publics are becoming more hostile toward immigrants over time is a misperception of reality. We instead observe a slight improvement in attitudes since the refugee crisis of 2015.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Public Opinion, Refugee Crisis, and Debt Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

126. The New Political Groups in the European Parliament: Ideological Identity and Cohesion

Author:
Antonis Papakostas and Spyros Blavoukos
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the outcome of the June 2024 European Parliament elections, focusing on the characteristics of national political formations that are represented in Strasbourg and the identity of the political groups in the European Parliament. This analysis is based on two axes of ideological and political nature: (1) the political spectrum (Left to Right), and (2) the disposition of the parties toward European integration. The paper makes use of data from the European Election Study 2024 (EES) exploring EP political groups’ (lack of) homogeneity and the varying degree of their internal cohesion.
Topic:
Ideology, European Parliament, Identity, Regional Politics, and Cohesion
Political Geography:
Europe

127. Reducing the Motherhood Penalty in Greece: Lessons from Norway

Author:
Manos Matsaganis, Tone Fløtten, Chrysa Papalexatou, Daphne Nicolitsas, and Bjorn Dapi
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This Working paper draws on the emerging literature that has established that the employment rates and the earnings of men and women start to diverge once they have children, with women’s labour market performance deteriorating, while that of men’s left unaffected or even improving. This phenomenon has been dubbed the motherhood penalty (or the child penalty). The size of the penalty is affected by the choices parents make as regards employment and childcare, which in turn are affected by gender norms, instilled in women and men early in life, but also by public policies aiming to establish a better work-life balance and help working mothers and fathers combine bringing up a child with pursuing a career. The paper reviews cultural norms and institutional arrangements as potential determinants of mothers’ employment in two polar cases: Greece (where female employment is low, and child penalties large) compared to Norway (where female employment is high, and child penalties are virtually non-existent). The paper concludes with a list of policy recommendations, inspired by our understanding of the gradual emergence of family-friendly work-life policies in Norway, and informed by our awareness of constraints facing policy makers in Greece.
Topic:
Employment, Economy, Public Policy, Parenting, and Motherhood
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

128. The Fight Over Gender Equality in South Korea

Author:
Cecilia Hyunjung Mo and Soosun You
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As more South Korean men perceive marriage as unattainable, their politics disfavor gender equality and reinforce sexism. These attitudes likely make marriage less appealing to women, which in turn fuels backlash among men.
Topic:
Demographics, Survey, Marriage, Gender, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

129. Forecasting Nuclear Escalation Risks: Cloudy With a Chance of Fallout

Author:
Jamie Kwong, Anna Bartoux, and James M. Acton
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Forecasting—that is, estimating the probability of specified events’ occurring—can contribute to efforts to better understand and address the challenge of managing escalation.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Forecast, Escalation, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

130. Democratic Recovery After Significant Backsliding: Emergent Lessons

Author:
Thomas Carothers and McKenzie Carrier
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In a global political landscape marked by twenty years of widespread democratic backsliding, some good news exists: in a handful of countries where leaders significantly undercut democratic norms and institutions, elections have brought to power new leadership with a strong declared commitment to restoring democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Institutions, Democratic Backsliding, and Global Politics
Political Geography:
Global Focus