Number of results to display per page
Search Results
202. Powering the Globe: Lessons from Southeast Asia for China’s Global Energy Interconnection Initiative
- Author:
- Edmund Downie
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- China’s Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) initiative presents a transformational vision for meeting the world’s growing power demand with a globally interconnected electricity grid. The concept involves ultra-high-voltage transmission lines strung across vast distances and smart grid technology tapping large-scale renewable power sources. Chinese President Xi Jinping first touted GEI’s goal to “facilitate efforts to meet the global power demand with clean and green alternatives” at the UN General Assembly in 2015. The ambition of the GEI vision is enormous, especially since there is very little cross-border trade in electricity around the world today. Regional electricity integration initiatives championed by development banks and multilateral organizations have largely struggled against the formidable political, economic and technical complications that accompany interstate electricity trade. China has seen these challenges firsthand in its participation in the Asian Development Bank’s Greater Mekong Subregion electricity trade endeavor, which has progressed fitfully since the 1990s amid regional infrastructure gaps and uneven political support from member states. This report, prepared as part of the Belt and Road Initiative series published by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, uses a case study of power trade in the Greater Mekong Subregion to assess the prospects for GEI in catalyzing energy integration around the world. It discusses why Greater Mekong Subregion integration has been slow, how GEI might help accelerate interconnection in the area, and what lessons the region offers for understanding the overall outlook for GEI. Based on this study, the author finds the following: Establishing a GEI-style global energy grid backbone by 2070 would require overcoming an extraordinary set of political challenges. The global grid outlined by GEI for the coming decades serves more as a demonstration of technical potential than a strict blueprint to be implemented. The limited scale attained thus far by the Greater Mekong Subregion project for grid integration and cross-border electricity trading demonstrates the headwinds such multinational efforts can face. Weak internal power sector development in recent decades has left some member states without the generation surpluses and robust power grids necessary to support meaningful levels of trade. In addition, power trade requires a strong degree of interstate political trust, motivated engagement by national utilities, and support from civil society players for the specific generation and transmission projects involved. Integration backers have historically struggled to build consensus across this diverse array of stakeholders. While enormous generation and transmission infrastructure projects are core components of the GEI vision and dovetail with the interests of China’s domestic proponents, considerable debate persists about their merits for fostering the renewables transition. Ultra-high-voltage transmission, a specialty of Chinese utilities, is a particular flashpoint. State interest in cross-border trade has been increasing across many regions in recent years, and more gradual gains in power trade around the world that can aid the renewable transition and bolster regional solidarity are possible. China can contribute greatly to this process: as an investor and contractor in grid projects abroad, as a member state of integration initiatives in Asia, and as an advocate of grid integration in international fora. GEI’s ultimate impact will depend in part on how advocates within China reconcile tensions between strengthening cross-border power trade and promoting domestic priorities, such as advancing the country’s own industrial policy objectives.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, United Nations, Infrastructure, Green Technology, and Electricity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
203. A Review of Sierra Leone’s Mines and Minerals Act
- Author:
- Tehtena Mebratu-Tsegaye, Perrine Toledano, and Sophie Thomashusen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- With the support of Oxfam, the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment reviewed select provisions in the Mines and Minerals Act 2009 and corresponding policy statements from the Minerals Policy 2018 to provide recommendations for how to best align the anticipated new mining law with international best practice. The 2009 law was reviewed with a focus on the following topics: • Fiscal regime; • Climate change; • Access to and use of land; • Community consultations and participation; • Human rights; and • Community development agreements.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Human Rights, Natural Resources, Mining, Land, Sustainability, and Community
- Political Geography:
- Africa, West Africa, and Sierra Leone
204. Ownership in the Electricity Market: Property, the Firm, and the Climate Crisis
- Author:
- Gregory Ferguson-Cradler
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
- Abstract:
- Electricity is a key area in climate mitigation. The sector needs to significantly expand while transitioning to renewable production, all in an extremely short timeframe. This paper focuses on ownership and control in the electricity sector in an era of climate change. Borrowing substantially from classical American Institutionalism, heterodox theories and histories of the firm, and legal institutionalism, this paper discusses the historically constituted nature of the categories of property, capital, and the firm and how these literatures provide helpful frameworks for analyzing the recent history and possible futures of electricity sectors. A short discussion of the recent history of the German electricity sector, particularly the large utility RWE, will briefly illustrate the approach. Climate change mitigation will require revised notions of ownership and an updated theory of the firm, property, and corporate governance for the Anthropocene.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Electricity, Property, Anthropocene, and Energy Transition
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Germany, and Global Focus
205. Climate Politics in a Fragmented Europe
- Author:
- Heather Grabbe and Stefan Lehne
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Europe’s “‘man on the moon’ moment” was how European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke on December 11, 2019, of the European Green Deal, a comprehensive program for a fair transition to a low-carbon economy.1 Rarely has the EU undertaken such an ambitious project requiring such a massive mobilization of resources and fundamental changes to most of its policies. The political momentum behind the transition is strong because the vast majority of Europeans, especially young ones, feel a sense of urgency to take action to prevent catastrophe. But political obstacles will rise again as the EU starts to implement practical measures. The union already has a long track record of climate change policy, both as a leader of international climate diplomacy and through the creation of laws and innovative policies such as the Emissions Trading Scheme. However, its efforts have suffered from significant deficits. Clashing interests of member states, some of which still heavily depend on coal, and industrial lobbies raising concerns about international competitiveness and jobs have constrained the EU’s ambitions. Insufficient mechanisms for monitoring and compliance have handicapped the implementation of these policies. The ongoing fragmentation of Europe’s political scene poses additional hurdles. Divisions between Eastern and Western Europe and Northern and Southern Europe hinder efficient decisionmaking. Populist parties already are mobilizing resistance to the necessary policies. Under these circumstances, the EU’s traditional method of depoliticizing difficult issues and submitting them to long technocratic discussions is unlikely to deliver results. To sustain democratic consent, there is no alternative to building public support for a fair climate transition and to deepening democratic engagement.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Politics, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and European Union
206. Not All that Glitters Is Gold: An Analysis of the Global Pact for the Environment Project
- Author:
- Géraud de Lassus Saint-Genliês
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The Global Pact for the Environment (GPE) is a draft treaty prepared in 2017 by a French think tank, Le Club des Juristes, which aims at strengthening the effectiveness of international environmental law (IEL) by combining its most fundamental principles into a single overarching, legally binding instrument. In May 2018, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted Towards a Global Pact for the Environment, a resolution that established an intergovernmental working group to discuss the necessity and feasibility of adopting an instrument such as the GPE, with a view to making recommendations to the UNGA. As the working group nears its final session, scheduled for May 20–22, 2019, this paper discusses the extent to which codifying the fundamental principles of IEL into a treaty could increase the problem-solving effectiveness of environmental governance. The analysis suggests that the added value of the proposed GPE (or any such instrument) may not be as evident as what its proponents argue. The paper also highlights the fact that the adoption of such an instrument could generate unintended consequences that would hinder the development of more effective environmental standards in the future.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Environment, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
207. Climate Scenarios for the Canadian Lending and Investment Industry
- Author:
- Olaf Weber and Adeboye Oyegunle
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Recently, a task force has been established by the Financial Stability Board that addresses climate risks for the financial industry. The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) has published recommendations for standardized disclosure about climate-related risks, and it has proposed developing scenario analyses to address climate-related risks for the financial industry. Using the climate risk indicators developed by the TCFD, an impact analysis that explored how direct impacts of the risk indicators influence one another was conducted. In addition, the influence of indirect impacts of the risk indicators on each other was examined by using a mathematical approach, the cross impact matrix-multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC Analysis). Finally, three scenarios were generated (a business as usual scenario; a reduced climate policies scenario; and a strong climate policies scenario), from which recommendations were made that will enable the Canadian financial sector to address risks and take proactive action, including investing in a low-carbon economy, to mitigate climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Investment, and Financial Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
208. What Is a Climate Response Measure? Breaking the Trade Taboo in Confronting Climate Change
- Author:
- James Bacchus
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Trade has become a taboo topic in climate negotiations on the implementation of the Paris climate agreement. This must change. The nexus between trade and climate change must be addressed in the climate regime. In particular, a definition is needed that will clarify the meaning of a climate “response measure.” Without a definition provided by climate negotiators, the task of defining which national climate measures are permissible and which are not when they restrict trade while pursuing climate mitigation and adaptation will be left to the judges of the World Trade Organization. To avoid a collision between the climate and trade regimes that will potentially be harmful to both, the ongoing deliberation on response measures in the climate regime must be reframed by ending the climate taboo on trade.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
209. Better Flood Maps Are Required to Protect Canadians and Their Property
- Author:
- Andrea Minano, Daniel Henstra, and Jason Thistlethwaite
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Flooding is a growing source of financial insecurity for Canadian households. Flood maps serve a far more effective function in many countries than they currently do in Canada, and they are an essential tool with which to communicate flood risk to the public, encourage property owners to purchase insurance and encourage flood preparedness. Existing flood maps in Canada, however, are difficult to find, outdated and of poor quality, containing few of the characteristics that experts associate with high-quality maps. Improving information about flood exposure, by improving the quality of and access to these maps, can play an important role in protecting Canadians from significant financial risk.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Natural Disasters, Flood, and Property
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
210. Injecting Politics into Business-led Sustainability Innovation: New Data from Small Businesses in Canada
- Author:
- Sarah Burch
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Canada cannot deliver on its international obligations under the Paris Agreement without meaningfully engaging its small business sector. Small businesses are more than simple profit-maximizers: they are social and political actors. Policies and incentives to foster sustainability should be carefully tailored to respond to the variety of drivers at each size of firm, rather than employing the same approach across the spectrum. Government can accelerate small business sustainability innovation by providing information, cases and success stories; technical skills and expertise; financial support and incentives; and legitimation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Environment, Innovation, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
211. A Guide to Emissions Trading under the Western Climate Initiative
- Author:
- Chios Carmody
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This is a guide to the legal framework for emissions trading under the cap-and-trade system created and adhered to under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI). This guide is intended to serve three aims. First, the guide is an overview of the WCI cap-and-trade system for emissions trading by current users of the system; potential industry participants; state, provincial and municipal governments; academic institutions; and members of civil society. Second, the guide’s aim is to foster learning among domestic and international actors interested in North America’s collective response to climate change and highlights one attempt to combat climate change through a subnational cap-and-trade system on the continent. Third, during the course of research for this guide in 2018, the province of Ontario linked its WCI-inspired cap-and-trade system with that of California and Quebec and six months later delinked its system, eventually terminating it altogether and announcing its intention to withdraw from the WCI. A third purpose of this guide is therefore to serve as an account of Ontario’s short-lived cap-and-trade system and its brief experience with linkage.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Climate Change, Environment, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Canada, North America, and Mexico
212. Designing High-seas Marine Protected Areas to Conserve Blue Carbon Ecosystems: A Climate-essential Development?
- Author:
- Cameron S. G. Jefferies
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- The high seas are a critical biodiversity reservoir and carbon sink. Unfortunately, the oceans, generally, and the high seas, in particular, do not feature prominently in international climate mitigation or climate adaptation efforts. There are, however, signals that ocean conservation is poised to occupy a more significant role in international climate law and policy going forward. This paper argues that improved conservation and sustainable use of high-seas living marine resources are essential developments at the convergence of climate action and ocean governance that should manifest, at least in part, as climate-informed high-seas marine protected areas.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Water, Maritime, and Conservation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, Australia, North America, and Global Focus
213. Governance of Marine Geoengineering
- Author:
- Kerryn Brent, Will Burns, and Jeffrey McGee
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- After more than two decades of UN negotiations, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, with current projections indicating the planet is on a pathway to a temperature increase of approximately 3.2°C by 2100, well beyond what is considered a safe level. This has spurred scientific and policy interest in the possible role of solar radiation management and carbon dioxide removal geoengineering activities to help avert passing critical climatic thresholds, or to help societies recover if global temperatures overshoot expectations of safe levels. Marine geoengineering proposals show significant diversity in terms of their purpose, scale of application, likely effectiveness, requisite levels of international cooperation and intensity of environmental risks. This diversity of marine geoengineering activities will likely place significant new demands upon the international law system to govern potential risks and opportunities. International ocean law governance is comprised of a patchwork of global framework agreements, sectoral agreements and customary international law rules that have developed over time in response to disparate issues. These include maritime access, fisheries management, shipping pollution, ocean dumping and marine scientific research. This patchwork of oceans governance contains several bodies of rules that might apply in governing marine geoengineering activities. However, these bodies of rules were negotiated for different purposes, and not specifically for the governance of marine geoengineering. The extent to which this patchwork of rules might contribute to marine geoengineering governance will vary, depending on the purpose of an activity, where it is conducted, which state is responsible for it and the types of impacts it is likely to have. The 2013 amendment to the London Protocol on ocean dumping provides the most developed and specific framework for marine geoengineering governance to date. But the capacity of this amendment to bolster the capacity of international law to govern marine geoengineering activities is limited by some significant shortcomings. Negotiations are under way to establish a new global treaty on conservation of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction, including new rules for area-based management, environmental impact assessments and capacity building/technology transfer. A new agreement has the potential to fill key gaps in the existing patchwork of international law for marine geoengineering activities in high-seas areas. However, it is also important that this new treaty be structured in a way that is not overly restrictive, which might hinder responsible research and development of marine geoengineering in high-seas areas.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, International Law, United Nations, Green Technology, and Geoengineering
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
214. Should Monetary Policy Take Inequality and Climate Change into Account?
- Author:
- Patrick Honohan
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Should central banks take more account of ethical issues, notably the impact of monetary policy actions on the distribution of income and wealth and on efforts to combat climate change, in the design and implementation of the wider monetary policy toolkit they have been using in the past decade? Although the scope to influence a range of objectives is more limited than is often supposed, and while it is vital to not derail monetary policy from its core purposes, central bank mandates justify paying more attention to such broad issues, especially if policy choices have a significant potential impact. Carefully managed steps in this direction could actually strengthen central bank independence while making some contribution to improving the effectiveness of public policy on these issues.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Monetary Policy, Inequality, and Central Bank
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
215. Nature versus Human Contrivance: Advancing the Centrality of Poor Governance to Irregular Migration in Africa
- Author:
- Michael I. Ugwueze
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
- Abstract:
- One of the greatest security concerns confronting the global community in recent times is irregular migration. Not only does this trigger trans-border crimes such as terrorism, human trafficking, and the resurgence of slavery; it is also the major cause of brain-drain in Africa. The continuing debate within the security literature is whether irregular migration is a natural consequence of climate change, or human contrivance arising from the quest for greener pasture, and/or pressures from poor governance, civil wars, unemployment, and poverty. The currency and potency of climate change, unemployment and security debates increasingly blur the contributions of poor governance to the problem of irregular migration in Africa. In view of this, the study investigates the centrality of poor governance to the problem of irregular migration in Africa. The data for the study were generated from both primary and secondary sources, while constant comparative method (CCM) was applied in the data analysis. As a result of constant comparison, the study found out that poor governance is a major cause of irregular migration among young Africans. The paper therefore recommends improved and youth-inclusive governance in Africa.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Migration, Terrorism, Governance, Brain Drain, Slavery, and Human Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Africa
216. Responding to Economic and Ecological Deficits
- Author:
- Jonathan M. Harris
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- Macroeconomic theory was shaken up in the wake of the financial crisis, with neoclassical approaches proving inadequate to analyze or respond to the need for policy action. Despite efforts to return to more conventional macro perspectives, a continuing re-evaluation of economic theory has important implications both for traditional economic concerns such as employment and inflation, and for ecological issues and the climate crisis. An emerging “green Keynesian” approach combines a radical Keynesian analysis with ecological priorities such as drastic carbon emissions reduction. One important aspect of this reorientation of theory is the analysis of economic and ecological deficits. In the years since the financial crisis, both economic and ecological deficits have increased. This poses a challenge for “green Keynesian” policy. It is therefore necessary to have effective analyses to measure and respond to ecological deficits, as well as policy measures to deal with economic deficits. This paper proposes a new approach to measuring ecological deficits, and a new perspective on economic deficits and debt. Since there is no single unitary measure for depletion or degradation of different kinds of resources, it is necessary to measure different kinds of deficit for different resources, with a goal of reducing all of these to zero or replacing them with surpluses. The analysis involves exploring the specific economic implications of reducing both ecological and economic deficits, which involves re-conceptualizing economic growth and "degrowth", and provides an alternative to current U.S. policies under the Trump administration, which are contributing to widening both deficits.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Debt, Financial Crisis, and Macroeconomics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
217. Energy Spheres of Influence
- Author:
- Sarah Ladislaw and Nikos Tsafos
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- For several decades, energy security has been defined and pursued in a multilateral world with relatively open markets and technology transfer, where energy relations have become increasingly commodified. But that world may soon disappear—energy relationships might become more political, open trade might give way to friction, and great powers might leverage energy relations or energy technology to gain an edge over each other. For decades the United States has promoted a rules-based, multilateral order, supported by shared gains from free trade and deeper economic and political integration within and among countries. Energy security, the ability to secure affordable and reliable supplies of energy, has been widely recognized as common good promoted by this system. As the world’s largest consumer and importer of energy, it was squarely in the United States’ national interest to support this approach through domestic and international energy policy as well as foreign policy. Today, this multilateral order is being challenged. The world is experiencing a new era of competition for greater geographic and economic power driven by the shifting center of gravity of the global economy, the realignment of relationships between and among countries, and rapid technological change. Energy is poised to play an important role in this upheaval and will be affected by these changes. The United States is no longer the largest consumer or importer of energy. Instead, it is now the largest producer of oil and natural gas and will soon be a net exporter of energy. The energy world also is changing rapidly, with renewable energy resources like solar and wind making up the fastest growing and largest source of new supplies and global imperatives like climate change challenging the role of status quo fuels. These changes have heralded a reexamination of the United States’ national interest regarding energy in this changing global system. The United States has important decisions to make about its position in this new environment. Can energy play an influential role in achieving U.S. foreign policy objectives in various regions of renewed geopolitical competition? Is any country or group of countries poised to dominate a given energy market or fuel and might that negatively affect U.S. national security interests? How does this changing global dynamic in which countries are vying for greater geographic and economic spheres of influence affect our approach to global energy security? Will the energy sector become fundamentally more mercantilist, and will the United States be competitive if it does? Greater insight about each of these questions is a prerequisite to the formulation of U.S. foreign and energy policy. So far, the United States has grappled with these questions by pursuing “energy dominance,” a strategy in which energy represents (1) a tool for gaining geopolitical influence in a given region and (2) an area of competitive and strategic economic advantage for the United States. But other global powers, like China and Russia, pose strong competition for this U.S. strategy. Energy features prominently in the economic, foreign, and national security strategies of all three countries but in different ways. And although all three recognize the importance of maintaining affordable and reliable energy supplies for the good of the global economy as well as their own economic well-being, they also recognize the influence of energy in the execution of foreign policy at the global and regional level. The issue for the international energy community is whether the multilateral approach to shared energy security, supported by the promotion of free and integrated markets, is breaking down into regional and economic spheres of influence more mercantile in nature—and if so, how the United States should respond.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
218. Addressing China's Exported Emissions
- Author:
- Amy Namur
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Once known as the world's top carbon polluter, China has recently recommitted itself as a leader in sustainability and renewable energy. Moving to fill the gaps left by the United States at the Paris Climate Talks, China has ramped up its renewable energy commitments, including plans to cap its CO2 emissions, drastically increase forest stocks, and expand its non-fossil fuel market share to 20 percent, all by 2030. This move has been highly favorable for Chinese diplomatic relations with its Southeast and Pacific Island neighbors who have labeled climate change as a top priority. Domestically the extensive health impacts of air pollution in China has rallied public opinion against the pollution industry, making the move to green energy both a wide berth of support. While still the highest CO2 emitting country in the world, China has made significant investments in renewable energy development and currently leads the planet in renewable investments abroad. China’s domestic commitment to sustainability has been ambitious; however, meeting these goals has created one of the biggest energy paradoxes of the 21st century.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
219. Leading Change in United Nations Organizations
- Author:
- Catherine Bertini
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper provides food for thought for incoming senior officials of the United Nations on a range of issues related to leading their organizations and embarking on organizational change. The transition to UN leadership, especially by the many agency executive heads who come to the United Nations from outside the system, is extremely critical, and these incoming senior leaders need to quickly understand their agency, its mission, its staff, its place within the larger UN and NGO ecosystem, and whether change is needed to improve the functioning of the agency. However, the United Nations and individual agencies provide little, if any, transition assistance for incoming executive heads. There is also little guidance and information provided to agency heads in leading transformational organizational change. Given the immense issues facing incoming leaders— including the internal pressures of running a large, multinational, political organization and external pressures from geopolitical shifts, poverty, war, strife, natural disasters, climate change— strong, creative, and risk-taking leadership is necessary for success. This paper provides guidance for new leaders through various stages of the early days of UN leadership; from preparations made upon appointment to the position to the first 100 days in office and finally through the assessment, planning, and implementation of transformational organizational change. It was written with input from many former and current senior UN leaders in hopes of providing valuable advice, insight, and lessons learned that can be used by new leaders as they embark on their challenging and rewarding mission to change lives and change the world.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, United Nations, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
220. Climate Security in the Sahel and the Mediterranean: Local and Regional Responses
- Author:
- A. Bassou, A. Chielewska, and X. Ruiz-Campillo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The Mediterranean connects Europe to Africa. The Mediterranean basin is thus an area of interaction between the two continents. However, there is a perception that limits the Mediterranean basin to its strictest geographical sense, that is to say the countries of southern Europe and those of North Africa, which border the Mediterranean. This traditional conception ignores the geopolitical context, which broadens the vision of the Mediterranean basin by including all the spaces that impact it. Some human phenomena, such as migration, show that Mediterranean relations do not only concern the states bordering this sea, but a much larger area including the whole European Union, on the one hand, and North African, Sahelian and Sub-Saharan countries, on the other hand. The present study takes into account the broader conception of the Mediterranean. In this sense, it not only deals with the effects of climate change on the countries bordering the Mediterranean, but extends its analysis to the whole European Union (EU), to the Maghreb and especially to the Sahel. Due to its geography, climate, demography, proliferation of conflicts or its precarious level of industrialization, the Sahel region is the most threatened in the world by climate change. Any deterioration of the situation in the Sahel countries undoubtedly has repercussions on Europe and its relations with Africa. The four authors of the study examine the impact of climate change on the stability of the Sahel and the effects that the instability of this region could have on the Mediterranean space. The authors question the potential links between climate change and security. They outline the positions and frameworks of European actions as well as the different initiatives taken by EU institutions. Finally, they put forward some recommendations on how to effectively address this phenomenon.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Political stability, and Industrialization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, Sahel, and Mediterranean
221. Forced to Leave: Determinants of Slow-Onset Displacement in Colombia
- Author:
- Helen Deacon and Maximilian Gorgens
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- In Colombia, the ongoing armed conflict has had severe effects on internal migration and displacement. While occasions of mass displacement usually attract significant attention, little is known about why forced displacement in Colombia primarily occurs gradually over time and in smaller groups. To address the apparent research gap, this paper analyses the consequences and mechanisms of forced slow-onset displacement and focuses on the interactions between "violence," "food security," and "climate change" as its determinants.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Food Security, Displacement, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
222. The Methane Economy
- Author:
- Chaitanya Giri
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
- Abstract:
- The United Nations’ 2015 Paris Agreement called for the immediate sequestration of atmospheric anthropogenic greenhouse gases to help avert serious environmental degradation. India can take the lead in this because it is the second largest emitter of methane. Of all the natural greenhouse gases, methane is the hardiest. Technological advances are making it possible to crack methane into gaseous hydrogen and solid carbon on a commercial scale. Methane cracking can provide a steady supply of hydrogen for futuristic transportation and solid carbon materials — graphene, carbon nanotubes, synthetic diamonds — which are integral to the marine, aerospace and space industries. The commercial benefits apart, methane cracking will also go a long way in meeting the Paris Agreement’s climate change mitigation objectives. This paper offers some concrete recommendations that can help the government of India shape national legislation and global geoeconomic strategies.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, United Nations, Methane, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
223. What’s next for UN climate negotiations? The UNFCCC in the era of populism and multipolar competition
- Author:
- Antto Vihma
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- After the agreement reached in Katowice in December 2018, The Paris Agreement is finally operational. This is a major diplomatic achievement. Two large-scale political developments have cast a shadow over the implementation phase of the Paris Agreement: the rise of right-wing populism and emerging multipolar competition. The evidence so far seems to suggest that right-wing populism often frames climate change as an elite agenda – and international agreements are perceived as a pet issue of the corrupt elite, at odds with the interests of the people. Relatedly, tightening competition among great powers makes multilateral cooperation and consensus-based decision-making among 197 parties increasingly challenging. With the Paris Agreement in place, the UNFCCC can provide a long-awaited legal framework for national climate contributions, but it will not be able to increase the ambition of national climate policies via multilateral negotiations.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, United Nations, and Paris Agreement
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
224. Climate Security: Making it #Doable
- Author:
- Karolina Eklöw, Florian Krampe, Malin Mobjörk, and Dan Smith
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Climate-related events left no region unaffected in 2018. These events demonstrate how climate change impacts are worsening. Despite increased geopolitical tensions that seem to undermine the Agenda 2030 or the Paris Agreement, global and regional organisations have been able to achieve some progress in addressing and mitigating climate-related security risks. This report, prepared for the Planetary Security Conference taking place in The Hague on 19–20 February 2019, feeds into the conversation by sketching the past year’s trends in relation to climate and security.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Geopolitics, Risk, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
225. A Confluence of Crises: On Water, Climate and Security in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Johan Schaar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) faces simultaneous crises of security, water scarcity and climate change. They are interlinked—the water crisis is exacerbated by climate change and may fuel conflict, while insecurity is an obstacle to dealing with other pressing issues. Together, the three constitute a confluence of crises that need to be addressed together. Authoritarian and militarized governments in MENA countries repress public discourse and action related to water and climate crises, viewing critics as threats to national security. But the elite’s own economic interests and role in the political economy make them vulnerable to the new risks and threats. The water and climate crises are mostly transboundary and require states to act together. But by prioritizing narrow security interests, states accord weak mandates to regional institutions, preventing agreements on shared challenges. A regional security framework is needed, encompassing water, climate and the current conflicts.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Water, Disarmament, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and North Africa
226. Advancing United Nations Responses to Climate-related Security Risks
- Author:
- Camilla Born, Karolina Eklöw, and Malin Mobjörk
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The security implications of climate change have increasingly been debated in the United Nations Security Council. Yet, there is a growing concern by many UN member states about the lack of adequate responses to the risks that climate change poses to peace and security. In recent years, some modest but notable changes at the UN have taken place, of which the creation of the Climate Security Mechanism is the primary example. This SIPRI Policy Brief summarizes the recent evolution of the climate security debate in the UN and highlights three priority areas for future action: (a) supporting and establishing climate security action in the field, (b) nurturing knowledge provision and (c) building sustainable sources of financing for climate security action. All these steps will require committed actors, innovation and long-term investment. Escalating climate impacts make the mitigation of climate-related security risks by the UN and its member states not only demanded but urgent. Recent institutional progress demonstrates that committed and cooperative actors can drive institutional change. This progress must be bolstered and action delivered in the field.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Environment, United Nations, and Risk
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
227. Climate-related Security Risks and Peacebuilding in Somalia
- Author:
- Karolina Eklöw and Florian Krampe
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Climate-related security risks are transforming the security landscape in which multilateral peacebuilding efforts take place. This policy paper offers a glimpse into the future of peacebuilding in the time of climate change by providing an in-depth assessment of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM). Climate-related change in Somalia has reduced livelihood options and caused migration. It has also left significant parts of the population in a vulnerable condition. These climate-related security risks contribute to grievances and increase inequality and fragility, which in turn pose challenges to the implementation of UNSOM’s mandate. The impacts of climate change have hindered UNSOM in its work to provide peace and security in Somalia and in its efforts to establish functioning governance and judicial systems. UNSOM has responded to the growing impact of climate-related change. It has learned lessons from previous failed responses—notably the 2011 drought—and has created innovative initiatives that have been effective. While there is still room for improvement, UNSOM’s new initiatives may help to deliver a set of responses that meet the short-term need for a rapid humanitarian response and the long-term objective of achieving a sustainable and resilient society. The challenges faced by UNSOM and its responses to them have wider implications. They suggest that there is a need for synergetic policy responses that can turn the responses to climate-related security risks into opportunities for UN efforts to sustain peace.
- Topic:
- Security, Climate Change, Migration, Governance, Risk, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
228. Navigating Low-Carbon Finance Management at Banks and Non-Banking Financial Institutions
- Author:
- Naoyuki Yoshino and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- Lack of long-term financing, the existence of various risks, the low rate of return, and lack of capacity in market actors are major challenges for the development of low-carbon projects. This paper attempts to provide guidelines for governments and financial institutions by highlighting practical solutions as enabling conditions of low-carbon finance and investment. Such solutions include increasing the role of public financial institutions, increasing the share of non-banking financial institutions in long-term investments, using the spillover tax to increase the rate of return, developing green credit guarantee schemes to reduce the credit risk, and addressing low-carbon investment risks via financial and policy de-risking. These solutions are analysed in detail and considerations for their implementation are discussed throughout the paper. Tools and instruments for low-carbon investments and a practical example of the implementation of the proposed tools are also provided in this paper
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Infrastructure, Banks, Credit, and Financial Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
229. Fuel Subsidy Reform and Green Taxes: Can Digital Technologies Improve State Capacity and Effectiveness?
- Author:
- Alan Gelb and Anit Mukherjee
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development
- Abstract:
- Reforming inefficient and inequitable energy subsidies continues to be an important priority for policymakers as does instituting “green taxes” to reduce carbon emissions. Simply increasing energy prices will have adverse impact on poorer consumers, who may spend substantial budget shares on energy and energy-intensive products even though the rich typically appropriate more of the price subsidy. Equitable pricing reforms therefore need to be accompanied by programs to transfer compensation: depending on the situation, this can be targeted or universal. Successful reforms require measures to raise awareness-of the subsidies and the problems they cause, effective dissemination of the reform to the population, and rapid feedback loops to facilitate mid-course corrections. Digital technology, including for unique identification and payments, as well as general communications, can help build government capacity to undertake such reforms and respond to changes in fuel markets. The paper outlines the use of digital technology, drawing on four country cases. The technology is only a mechanism; it does not, in itself, create the political drive and constituency to push reform forward. However, it can be employed in a number of ways to increase the prospects for successful and sustainable reform.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, Reform, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, India, and Latin America
230. Supply and Demand in a Time of Changing Geopolitics and a Changing Climate
- Author:
- Aspen Institute
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The Forum on Global Energy, Economy & Security is an annual conversation to discuss global energy markets, crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas supply and demand, midstream, shale development, geopolitics, energy security, and environmental topics. The forum features Aspen’s time-honored moderated roundtable discussion format which, while each session is introduced by brief presentations, stresses dialogue between participants rather than conference-style speaker presentations with question and answer only. The forum is enhanced by an informal atmosphere and a not-for-attribution rule that encourages new thinking, dissenting opinions, and frank discussion.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Renewable Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
231. NextGen Network Key Takeaways: Prague, Czech Republic
- Author:
- Aspen Institute
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Aspen Central Europe hosted the Network in Prague in January 2019, with participants from Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Participants emphasized that there should be a focus on mapping where exactly AI can support existing professions, create new ones, but most importantly streamline the education system towards current trends and lifelong learning. It is essential to speed up the adoption of AI in Europe, as well as connect it with major challenges in society, such as tackling climate change or innovating healthcare, where, for example, AI can be explained by its promoters as a way of delivering better services rather than merely introducing a new technology.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Science and Technology, Health Care Policy, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Czech Republic, and Central Europe
232. Climate Change and National Security: How Can Public Policy Change the World?
- Author:
- Aspen Institute
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The Aspen Institute partnered with the University of Chicago’s Inter-Policy School Summit on March 1-3, 2019, to host 40 graduate students from around the world to explore and consider the intersection between Climate Change and National Security, a topic that will come to play an increasingly important role in the policy realm for decades to come. The participants were asked to research various topics within the larger theme and write white papers proposing rigorous and tangible solutions for the quaternary effects of climate change, especially when they pertain to national security.
- Topic:
- Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Migration, National Security, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States of America and North America
233. Climate Change, Chemical Fertilisers and Sustainable Development – Panel Evidence from Tanzanian Maize Farmers
- Author:
- Christiane Heisse and Risa Morimoto
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- We study the impact of rainfall risk on fertiliser use by Tanzanian maize farmers using newly available spatially disaggregated agronomic survey data on Tanzanian maize producers. We show that fertiliser use is highly sensitive to rainfall risks. Our discussion embeds these findings into the wider debate around environmental sustainability and mineral fertilisers, thus relating directly to the country’s government efforts of climate mainstreaming into their (agricultural) policies. We conclude that chemical fertilisers are useful for agricultural productivity growth but that they should be used to supplement more economically and environmentally sustainable practices.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Environment, Sustainability, and Farming
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tanzania
234. Central Bank Mandates, Sustainability Objectives and the Promotion of Green Finance
- Author:
- Simon Dikau and Ulrich Volz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the extent to which climate-related risks and mitigation policies fit into the current set of central bank mandates and objectives. To this end, we conduct a detailed analysis of central bank mandates and objectives, using the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database, and compare these to current arrangements and sustainability responsibilities that central banks have adopted in practice. To scrutinise the alignment of mandates with climate-related policies, we differentiate between the impact of environmental factors on the conventional core objectives of central banking, and a potential supportive role of central banks with regard to green finance and sustainability. Of the 133 central banks in our sample, only 12% have explicit sustainability mandates, while 29% are mandated to support the government’s policy priorities, which in most cases include sustainability goals. However, given that climate risks can directly affect traditional core responsibilities of central banks, most notably monetary and financial stability, even central banks without explicit or implicit sustainability objectives ought to incorporate climate-related physical and mitigation risks into their core policy implementation frameworks in order to efficiently and successfully safeguard macroeconomic stability.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Finance, Green Technology, Sustainability, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
235. Inequality in Energy Consumption: Statistical Equilibrium or a Question of Accounting Conventions?
- Author:
- Gregor Semieniuk and Isabella M. Weber
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- Mitigating climate change requires information about the inequality in energy consumption. Recent contributions (Banerjee and Yakovenko, 2010; Lawrence et al., 2013; Yakovenko, 2010, 2013) have studied energy inequality through the lens of maximum entropy. They claim a weighted international distribution of total primary energy demand should approach a Boltzmann-Gibbs maximum entropy equilibrium distribution in the form of an exponential distribution, implying convergence to a Gini coefficient of 0.5 from above. The present paper challenges the validity of this claim and critically discusses the applicability of statistical equilibrium reasoning to economics from the viewpoint of social accounting. It is shown that the exponential distribution is only a robust candidate for a statistical equilibrium of energy inequality when employing one particular accounting convention for energy flows, the substitution method. But this method has become problematic with a higher renewable share in the international energy mix, and no other accounting method supports the claim of a convergence to a 0.5 Gini. We conclude that the findings based on maximum entropy reasoning are sensitive to accounting conventions and critically discuss the epistemological implications of this sensitivity for the use of maximum entropy approaches in social sciences.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Inequality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
236. New Powers: How India’s Smart Cities are Governing and Transitioning to Low-carbon Energy
- Author:
- Ankit Bhardwaj, Federico De Lorenzo, and Marie-Hélène Zérah
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Policy Research, India
- Abstract:
- Despite the potential of cities to foster a low-carbon energy transition, the governance of energy in India broadly remains within the purview of central and state governments. However, the Smart Cities Mission, a new urban scheme launched in 2015, gives Indian cities new powers to govern energy, a surprising departure from previous urban and energy policies. We argue that this shift is significant and we therefore raise three questions: 1) what kind of energy projects are planned and what does it reveal about the cities’ vision towards energy? 2) does the Smart Cities Mission foster a low-carbon energy transition and if so, how is this transition envisaged? 3) and finally, what are the rationale and the drivers behind this apparent shift? To address these questions, we build on a database of projects and financing plans submitted by the first 60 cities selected in the Smart Cities Mission. We find that cities have earmarked an immense 13,161 INR crore (~1.4 billion GBP) for energy projects, with most funds dedicated to basic infrastructure, primarily focused on enhancing the grid and supply. Cities also proposed projects in solar energy, electric vehicles, waste to energy and LED lighting, indicating their appetite for low-carbon projects. While cities were given institutional space to prioritise certain technologies, their interventions were conditioned by centrally sources of financing which were limited to certain mandated technologies. A focus on technology, rather than planning, undermined the role of cities as strategic decision-makers. What emerges is a dual faced reading of the Smart Cities Mission, indicating the potential and pitfalls of contemporary decentralized energy governance in the Global South.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Social Policy, and Urban
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Asia
237. Can Non-State Actors Help to Overcome Barriers to State Cooperation? The Case of Global Climate Governance
- Author:
- Poorti Sapatnekar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- While nation-states remain primary protagonists in global governance processes, it is increasingly recognized that non-state actors (NSAs) are key players in areas ranging from human rights and civil conflict to infectious disease and nuclear non-proliferation. The area of climate change is an illustrative example. NSAs have been active participants in the margins of the Conference of Parties (COP), the annual meeting of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), since its inception in 1995 by holding side-events and protests, raising awareness, lobbying, etc. NSAs have also contributed to the development of a “regime complex” in climate governance at the same time. Yet, the determinants and effects of that participation are not well understood. The COP offers a unique opportunity to examine one piece of this puzzle; namely, the factors that enable and motivate NSAs to participate in the design and implementation of international agreements. We use an original dataset of NSA participants at the COP from 1995 to 2016, to examine whether NSAs are well positioned to help states overcome key barriers to cooperation. As NSAs ramp up their participation in climate governance and elsewhere, this study offers insight into their motivations and potential impact on governance outcomes.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, United Nations, Non State Actors, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
238. The Neoliberal Attack on Rural India
- Author:
- P. Sainath
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Abstract:
- This dossier features two stories on India’s agrarian crisis. The first story is about the harsh impact of the changing climate on top of an already battered rural economy in Andhra Pradesh, where farmers are growing for seed companies in the most adverse conditions. The second story takes us to Kerala, where we find the Kudumbashree women’s cooperative, which has resiliently resisted the devastation of the worst floods in the state in nearly a century.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Climate Change, Farming, and Agribusiness
- Political Geography:
- India and Asia
239. Turmoil in South America and the Impact on Energy Markets
- Author:
- Lisa Viscidi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- 2019 has been marked by widespread uprisings throughout Latin America. In the last few months, protests have erupted in Bolivia, Ecuador, and Colombia, while Argentina elected a new leader, Bolivia’s president resigned following growing tensions with his political opponents and the military, and Peru’s leader is facing a political crisis. Largely fuelled by anger over graft, economic disparity, and the rising cost of living, the resulting social unrest has led to uncertainty over the energy sector outlook. Continued political and social turbulence will likely contribute to stagnant oil and gas production growth in these countries. Conversely, Brazil and Guyana are on track to become the region’s largest oil producers. In Brazil, pre-salt reserves have been attracting foreign investment, although further market-friendly reforms will need to be made to sustain development. Guyana, for its part, is in line to become the region’s newest petrostate and will see explosive economic growth in the coming years. Despite its large reserves, Venezuela is excluded from this study because the country’s political and economic turmoil, coupled with US sanctions, make any increase in investment highly unlikely in the short term. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, December 2019.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, Gas, and Domestic Politics
- Political Geography:
- South America and Latin America
240. Interactions between a Federal Carbon Tax and Other Climate Policies
- Author:
- Justin Gundlach, Ron Minsk, and Noah Kaufman
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Putting a price on carbon is a critical part of a low-cost strategy for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and a national carbon tax is a rare example of a climate change policy that has found bipartisan support in the United States. In 2018, legislation establishing a carbon tax was proposed by Democrats, Republicans, and bipartisan groups of US congressmen. However, while passing a carbon tax would certainly prove a significant step toward slashing emissions, simply adding a carbon tax to current policies is unlikely to achieve an emissions target at the lowest cost. Designing a carbon tax that contributes to achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets effectively and efficiently will require an examination of whether other new policies are also needed and whether existing policies can or should be changed or eliminated. With more proposals expected in 2019, such an examination is critical to ensuring both sufficient emissions reductions and an efficient set of policies that keep costs in check for taxpayers. As part of a broader carbon tax research program at the School of International and Public Affairs Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, we have developed a framework for considering the interactions between a federal carbon tax and other policies that influence greenhouse gas emissions. Toward the goal of helping to design better policies, we identify policies and programs that are “complementary” to a carbon tax or “redundant.” A policy is defined as complementary if it: enables more cost-effective reductions of carbon dioxide emissions than a carbon tax would achieve on its own; or reduces GHG emissions and achieves a separate policy objective more cost-effectively than a federal carbon tax would on its own. Conversely, a policy is defined as redundant with a federal carbon tax if it leads to additional costs to society without achieving additional emissions reduction. In developing this framework, we recognize that real-world policies often do not fall cleanly into either category and that neither specifying the framework nor making the categorizations is an exact science. It is often difficult to identify a policy’s objective or evaluate its cost-effectiveness. In addition, the extent to which a policy complements a carbon tax depends on the nature of the carbon tax. Most obviously, with a lower carbon tax rate, fewer emission reductions would be achieved, and additional policies may be needed to make up the difference between the outcome and a science-based emissions reduction target. The results of the work, highlighted in the following table, indicate a relatively large number of policies can complement a carbon tax, such as those that support innovation in low-carbon technologies, tackle behavioral barriers to more efficient energy use, or improve public infrastructure and address barriers to reducing emissions unrelated to the price-related barriers addressed by a carbon tax. Conversely, the paper identifies regulations that force entities that pay the carbon tax to take specific actions to reduce their emissions, such as Environmental Protection Agency regulations of stationary sources of carbon dioxide emissions under section 111 of the Clean Air Act, as redundant with the carbon tax. The paper does not recommend which policies should be eliminated, changed, or added but intends to provide policy makers with information that will help them make these decisions.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Science and Technology, Green Technology, and Carbon Tax
- Political Geography:
- United States
241. The Risk of Fiscal Collapse in Coal-Reliant Communities
- Author:
- Adele Morris, Noah Kaufman, and Siddhi Doshi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- If the United States undertakes actions to address the risks of climate change, the use of coal in the power sector will decline rapidly. This presents major risks to the 53,000 US workers employed by the industry and their communities. 26 US counties are classified as “coal-mining dependent,” meaning the coal industry is a major employer. In these areas, the industry is also an important contributor to local government finances through a complex system of property, severance, sales, and income taxes; royalties and lease bonuses for production on state and federal lands; and intergovernmental transfers. While climate-related risks to corporations have received scrutiny in recent years, local governments—including coal-reliant counties—have yet to grapple with the implications of climate policies for their financial conditions. Importantly, the risks from the financial decline of coal-reliant counties extend beyond their borders, as these counties also have significant outstanding debts to the US municipal bond market that they may struggle to repay. To be sure, national climate policy in the United States is uncertain. Experts have long recommended strong policy action to reduce emissions, and for years, policy makers have largely ignored their advice. Nevertheless, with growing support by the public and policy makers, meaningful climate policy in the United States may be on the horizon, and those dependent on coal should be looking ahead to manage their risks. This paper examines the implications of a carbon-constrained future on coal-dependent local governments in the United States. It considers the outlook for US coal production over the next decade under such conditions and explores the risk this will pose for county finances. The paper also considers the responsibilities of jurisdictions to disclose these risks, particularly when they issue bonds, and the actions leaders can take to mitigate the risks. In short, the paper finds the following: ● Coal production in the United States fell by one-third between 2007 and 2017. Projections of the US energy system show this decline continuing gradually under current policies. However, even a moderately stringent climate policy could create existential risks for the coal industry, with potential declines in production of around 75 percent in the 2020s. ● A careful look at three illustrative counties shows that coal-related revenue may fund a third or more of their budgets. The exposure is compounded because school districts and other special districts within the counties also receive coal-dependent revenue. The complex system of local revenue instruments and intergovernmental transfers plus a lack of sufficiently detailed budget data makes it difficult to parse out just how reliant jurisdictions are on the coal industry. ● Estimates of the direct linkages between the coal industry and county budgets will almost certainly understate the risks because lost economic activity and jobs will have ripple effects across the economy. Case studies show that the rapid decline of a dominant industry has led to downward spirals and eventual collapses of local governments’ fiscal conditions, including the inability to raise revenue, repay debt, and/ or provide basic public services. ● Coal-dependent communities have a variety of outstanding bonds, and the risk of collapse of the coal industry threatens their ability to repay them. Despite regulations requiring disclosures to reflect risks to the financial health of municipalities, our review of the outstanding bonds indicates that municipalities are at best uneven and at worst misleading (by omission) in their characterizations of climate-related risks. Ratings reports are not much better than official statements in describing the risks associated with the exposure of some local governments to the coal industry. ● Climate policies can be combined with investments in coal-dependent communities to support their financial health. A logical source of funding for such investments would be the revenues from a price on carbon dioxide emissions, a necessary element of any cost-effective strategy for addressing the risks of climate change. A small fraction of revenue from a federal carbon price in the United States could fund billions of dollars in annual investments in the economic development of coal-dependent communities and direct assistance to coal industry workers. ● In considering reforms, several questions emerge for stakeholders. These include whether regulators should develop additional requirements for the disclosure of risks from future climate policies; whether ratings agencies should increase attention to the risks to local governments of climate policies; and whether stakeholders in the municipal bond market, such as borrowers, insurers, and underwriters, are appropriately accounting for risks to the coal industry.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Coal, and Domestic Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
242. PG&E: Market and Policy Perspectives on the First Climate Change Bankruptcy
- Author:
- John Macwilliams, Sarah Lamonaca, and James Kobus
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) bankruptcy, which was caused by liabilities resulting from massive wildfires, has widely been called the first climate change bankruptcy. It will likely not be the last, as climate change exacerbates natural disasters, leading to more frequent and intense wildfires, storms, and flooding. Wildfires alone could become up to 900 percent more destructive in certain regions by midcentury, and utility assets will also be increasingly exposed to threats stemming from hurricanes, rising sea levels, and other climate-related events. These extreme weather events will increase costs to utility-sector stakeholders, including investor-owned utilities, state and local governments, ratepayers, and taxpayers. These risks could place financial stress on utility companies, drive up electricity rates, crowd out essential investment in renewable energy and grid upgrades, and disrupt service. In this paper, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy reviews and analyzes the PG&E bankruptcy, assesses how capital markets have reacted to the bankruptcy through the lens of valuations in the US utility sector, and discusses policy implications of California’s recent legislative response to wildfire risk. This paper examines market indicators to assess investor expectations of climate risk exposure and likely cost allocation. Neither debt nor equity markets suggest widespread concern about climate risk in the utility sector. In the absence of strong market signals to encourage climate risk mitigation, the authors find that policy frameworks are needed to ensure that companies make necessary preventative investments and to define how costs will be allocated among stakeholders. This paper also reviews a recently passed California bill aimed at achieving these objectives and the lessons and best practices it offers for other policy makers. In short, the paper finds the following: Market indicators suggest that the California wildfires and subsequent PG&E bankruptcy have not caused imminent concern about climate risks in the utility sector. Equity valuations for the sector remain strong, with a utility stock index trading at a higher-than-average premium to the market benchmark. In credit markets, regulated utilities in the United States have raised more than $50 billion of corporate debt in 2019 to date, and borrowing spreads are currently below historical averages. There are several reasons why markets may not reflect widespread climate risk to utilities, despite the scientific evidence around likely future damage. Investors may believe that cost increases from climate change will occur too far in the future to materially impact the present value of their investments. Even if investors believe that climate change risks are material to valuation, they may also believe that such risks will not be considered by other investors for some time. Investors may be viewing wildfires as a California-specific risk, though the regional skew of wildfires is likely to shift significantly in coming years. They may lack the information or modeling tools for assessing the likelihood and geographic dispersion of high-impact tail events, such as the wildfires that PG&E faced. Financial markets may also reflect the belief that the costs of climate change in the utility sector will fall predominantly on ratepayers, insurance companies, and/or taxpayers rather than investors, and therefore investors may not view themselves as materially exposed. California’s recent creation of a wildfire insurance fund with contributions from both ratepayers and companies provides important policy lessons for designing comprehensive frameworks to allocate climate damage costs. These include the strengthening of both regulatory and corporate climate resilience expertise, mandating preventative investment as a prerequisite for cost-recovery mechanisms, defining utility financial exposure for climate damage situations, and providing cash for utilities to provide essential services when facing large disasters. The policy also presents some potential pitfalls that may be instructive for other state policy makers. The legislation sets aside large reserves for future damage, a necessary measure, but one that will result in higher electric bills. The bill does not allow utilities to earn a return on safety-related spending, which broadly diminishes incentives for proactive climate mitigation investment. The potential insufficiency of the wildfire fund also creates uncertainty about future cost allocation. Finally, failing to reform the California legal framework that allows utilities to be held liable for damages they did not cause perpetuates risks for companies and ratepayers. If the first climate change bankruptcy is indicative of a new reality, it is not that utilities are going to go bankrupt overnight. Rather, climate disasters will increasingly add financial stress to utility-sector stakeholders, as costs accumulate from both acute events and damaging extreme weather impacts. Adapting the regulatory bargain for a climate-exposed future will require lawmakers, regulators, and shareholders to develop new approaches and new incentive structures to ensure an accountable, robust utility sector. Moreover, while climate change is already presenting real financial challenges to utilities, it will not be the only sector to face large climate-driven costs. Other corporate actors can look to the utility experience to better understand how policy makers, investors, and companies will respond to the growing financial threat from climate change.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Gas, and Electricity
- Political Geography:
- United States and California
243. Engaging State-Owned Enterprises in Climate Action
- Author:
- Philippe Benoit
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Policy makers, academics, and others have devoted significant effort over the past three decades to considering how best to incentivize households and private companies to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. There has been much less discussion about how best to incentivize state-owned enterprises (SOEs) -- companies that are either wholly or majority owned by a government -- to cut emissions. Yet when it comes to energy sector GHGs, these state companies are among the world’s leading emitters. They are major emitters at both the country and global levels, notably from electricity generation. In the aggregate, they emit over 6.2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per year in energy sector GHGs, which is more than every country except China. Public sector companies are also major providers of low-carbon alternatives, such as renewables and nuclear power, and importantly, they often operate under incentives that are quite different from those facing their private sector counterparts. Given the emissions profile of SOEs, the nature of their corporate mandates, and their ownership structure, Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy undertook research to examine how best to engage these companies in efforts to lower greenhouse gas emissions as part of its ongoing work on climate change. The paper explores the role of these public sector companies in climate change, examines the effectiveness of market-oriented solutions such as carbon taxes in changing SOE behavior, and evaluates some other potential strategies for reducing their emissions. In short, the paper finds the following: The state-ownership structure of SOEs allows governments to exercise shareholder power to press for the implementation of their climate policy preferences. Providing public sector financing and making associated infrastructure improvements are other ways that a government can encourage its SOEs to invest in low-carbon alternatives. In contrast, many SOEs operate with nonfinancial mandates, market protections, and other conditions that limit their responsiveness to carbon pricing mechanisms that are effective in changing private sector behavior. There are other ways to alter public sector companies so that they embrace a greener pathway without being directed, especially if a firm’s management determines the pathway will serve its corporate interests. This can be especially important for state-owned companies that have the political weight to resist government climate policy pressures. In emerging economies with large SOE emissions and with governments willingly direct their SOEs, using these companies to reduce emissions is a policy tactic that can present implementation and other advantages because it requires the government to target a limited number of companies that the state already owns and controls. How much a government prioritizes climate change relative to other goals is the most critical factor that will determine the extent to which its SOEs prioritize low-carbon investments. Successfully merging climate goals into growth objectives, at both the broader economic and the SOE-company levels, increases the likelihood that a state company will engage in the low-carbon transition in a sustained manner.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Green Technology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
244. 2019 Guide to Chinese Climate Policy
- Author:
- David Sandlow
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- In 2018, China was the world’s leading emitter of heat-trapping gases by a wide margin. Its policies for limiting emissions will have a significant impact on the global climate for decades to come. From a historical perspective, China’s status as the world’s leading emitter is relatively recent. During most of the 19th and 20th centuries, Chinese emissions were modest. Then, in the early part of this century, as the Chinese economy boomed, Chinese emissions began to skyrocket, overtaking those from the United States around 2006. China’s cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution are roughly half those from the United States. (Carbon dioxide, the leading heat-trapping gas, stays in the atmosphere for many years once emitted.) China’s leaders have declared that the impacts of climate change “pose a huge challenge to the survival and development of the human race” and that China is “one of the most vulnerable countries to the adverse impacts of climate change.”[11] The Chinese government has adopted short- and medium-term goals for limiting emissions of heat-trapping gases and a wide-ranging set of policies that contribute to meeting those goals. Those policies are shaped in part by other objectives, including promoting economic growth, cutting local air pollution and developing strategic industries. This Guide examines Chinese climate change policies. It starts with a review of Chinese emissions. It then explores the impacts of climate change in China and provides a short history of the country’s climate policies. The bulk of the Guide discusses China’s principal climate policies, explaining the policy tools the Chinese government uses to address climate change and related topics. Appendices provide background on institutions that shape climate policy in China. What are “climate policies”? Monetary and fiscal policies affect emissions and could therefore qualify, as could policies on many other topics. This Guide does not catalog all policies that could affect emissions or the climate, but instead focuses on policies most directly related to climate change, including those on energy, transportation, urbanization, forestry, climate adaptation and climate diplomacy. In choosing policies to focus on, I am guided in part by international convention and in part by governments’ extensive reporting on this topic. The Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted by more than 160 nations to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change show a broad international consensus that policies on energy, transportation, urbanization and forestry, among others, are considered “climate policies.” The Chinese government’s official documents on climate change show the same.[12] Several official documents are important resources for anyone interested in China’s climate policies. Every year the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) publishes a report on China’s Policies and Actions for Addressing Climate Change.[13] These reports provide detailed information on a range of topics. Other key sources for understanding China’s climate policies include: China’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in June 2015;[14] Work Plan for Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the 13th Five-Year Plan, issued by the State Council in October 2016;[15] China’s First Biennial Update Report on Climate Change, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2016;[16] China’s Second Biennial Update Report on Climate Change, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2018;[17] and China’s Third National Communication on Climate Change, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2018[18] Several themes run through these documents, including strong commitments to low-carbon development, cutting coal use, scaling up clean energy sources, promoting sustainable urbanization and participating actively in climate diplomacy. Implementation is fundamental to any policy. This is especially true in China, where policy implementation can be a considerable challenge. Key ministries may fail to coordinate. Resources for enforcement may be lacking. Policies designed to achieve different objectives may conflict. The priorities of provincial leaders may not align with policies from Beijing. For these reasons and more, stated policies—while important—are just part of the picture when it comes to understanding the Chinese response to climate change. The organization of this Guide reflects that. Most chapters start with a section of background facts. This background provides context and can help in forming judgments on the impacts of policies to date and potential impacts of policies in the years ahead. Where implementation has been especially challenging or successful, that is highlighted. This Guide can be read in parts or as a whole. Individual chapters are designed to stand alone and provide readers with information on discrete topics. The Guide as a whole is designed to provide an understanding of China’s response to climate change and the implications of that response for China and the world. The Guide can be accessed in three ways: by purchasing it as a book on Amazon.com by visiting the Guide to Chinese Climate Policy website at https://chineseclimatepolicy.energypolicy.columbia.edu/, and by downloading it for free from the website above or the website of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy—http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/ This is a “living document.” Many of the facts and policies it describes will change in the months and years ahead. As that happens, this Guide will be updated. New editions of the Guide will be released regularly.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Green Technology
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
245. Low-Carbon Heat Solutions for Heavy Industry: Sources, Options, and Costs Today
- Author:
- Julio Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Recent studies indicate there is an urgent need to dramatically reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from heavy industrial applications (including cement, steel, petrochemicals, glass and ceramics, and refining). Heavy industry produces roughly 22 percent of global CO₂ emissions. Of these, roughly 40 percent (about 10 percent of total emissions) is the direct consequence of combustion to produce high-quality heat, almost entirely from the combustion of fossil fuels. This is chiefly because these fuels are relatively cheap, are widely available in large volumes, and produce high-temperature heat in great amounts. Many industrial processes require very large amounts of thermal energy at very high temperatures (more than 300°C and often more than 800°C). For example, conventional steel blast furnaces operate at about 1,100°C, and conventional cement kilns operate at about 1,400°C. In addition, many commercial industrial facilities require continuous operation or operation on demand. The nature of industrial markets creates challenges to the decarbonization of industrial heat. In some cases (e.g., steel, petrochemicals), global commodity markets govern product trade and price. Individual national action on the decarbonization of heavy industry can lead to trade disadvantage, which can be made acute for foundational domestic industries (in some cases, with national security implications). This can also lead to offshoring of production and assets, leading to carbon “leakage” as well as local job and revenue loss (with political consequences). In many cases, lack of options could lead to dramatic price increases for essential products (e.g., cement for concrete, an essential building material). Risk of carbon leakage, price escalation, and trade complexity limits the range of policy applications available to address this decarbonization need. To explore the topic of industrial heat decarbonization, the authors undertook an initial review of all options to supply high temperature, high flux, and high volume heat for a subset of major industrial applications: cement manufacturing, primary iron and steel production, methanol and ammonia synthesis, and glassmaking. From the initial comprehensive set of potential heat supply options, the authors selected a subset of high relevance and common consideration: Biomass and biofuel combustion Hydrogen combustion (including hydrogen produced from natural gas with 89 percent carbon capture (blue hydrogen) and hydrogen produced from electrolysis of water using renewable power (green hydrogen) Electrical heating (including electrical resistance heating and radiative heating (e.g., microwaves) Nuclear heat production (including conventional and advanced systems) The application of post-combustion carbon capture, use, and storage (CCUS) to industrial heat supply and to the entire facility, as a basis for comparison The authors focus on substitutions and retrofits to existing facilities and on four primary concerns: cost, availability, viability of retrofit/substitution, and life-cycle footprint. In short, the paper finds: All approaches have substantial limitations or challenges to commercial deployment. Some processes (e.g., steelmaking) will likely have difficulty accepting options for substitution. All options would substantially increase the production cost and wholesale price of industrial products. For many options (e.g., biomass or electrification), the life-cycle carbon footprint or efficiency of heat deposition are highly uncertain and cannot be resolved simply. This complicates crafting sound policy and assessing technical options and viability. Most substitute supply options for low-carbon heat appear more technically challenging and expensive than retrofits for CCUS. Even given the uncertainties around costs and documented complexities in applying CO₂ capture to industrial systems, it may prove simpler and cheaper to capture and store CO₂. CCUS would have the added benefit of capturing emissions from by-product industrial chemistry, which can represent 20–50 percent of facility emissions and would not be captured through heat substitution alone. Critically, CCUS is actionable today, providing additional GHG mitigation to industrial heat and process emissions as other options mature and become economically viable. Hydrogen combustion provided the readiest source of heat of all the options assessed, was the simplest to apply (including retrofit), and was the most tractable life-cycle basis. Today, hydrogen produced from reforming natural gas and decarbonized with CCUS (blue hydrogen) has the best cost profile for most applications and the most mature supply chain, and it would commonly add 10–50 percent to wholesale production costs. It also could provide a pathway to increase substitution with hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water from carbon-free electricity (green hydrogen), which today would increase costs 200–800 percent but would drop as low-carbon power supplies grow and electrolyzer costs drop. Hydrogen-based industrial heat provides an actionable pathway to start industrial decarbonization at once, particularly in the petrochemical, refining, and glass sectors, while over time reducing cost and contribution of fossil sources. However, substitution of hydrogen will prove more difficult or infeasible for steel and cement, which might require more comprehensive redesign and investment. Most of the other options appear to add substantially to final production costs—commonly twice that of blue hydrogen substitution or CCUS—and are more difficult to implement. However, all options show the potential for substantial cost reductions. An innovation agenda remains a central important undertaking and likely would yield near-term benefits in cost reduction, ease of implementation, and a lower life-cycle carbon footprint. Prior lack of focus on industrial heat supplies as a topic leave open many possibilities for improvement, and dedicated research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) programs could make substantial near-term progress. To avoid commercial and technical failure, government innovation programs should work closely with industry leaders at all levels of investigation. New policies specific to heavy industry heat and decarbonization are required to stimulate market adoption. Policies must address concerns about leakage and global commodity trade effects as well as the environmental consequences. These policies could include sets of incentives (e.g., government procurement mandates, tax credits, feed-in tariffs) large enough to overcome the trade and cost concerns. Alternatively, policies like border adjustment tariffs would help protect against leakage or trade impacts. Because all options suffer from multiple challenges or deficiencies, innovation policy (including programs that both create additional options and improve existing options) is essential to deliver rapid progress in industrial heat decarbonization and requires new programs and funding. As a complement to innovation policy and governance, more work is needed to gather and share fundamental technical and economic data around industrial heat sources, efficiency, use, and footprint.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Infrastructure, and Green Technology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
246. An Assessment of the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act
- Author:
- Noah Kaufman, John Larsen, Peter Marsters, Hannah Kolus, and Shashank Mohan
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Growing public concern about the social, economic, and environmental impacts of climate change, along with pressure for lawmakers to introduce policy proposals that reduce emissions, have brought carbon taxes to the center of policy discussions on Capitol Hill. Thus far in 2019, seven different carbon tax legislative proposals have been introduced in Congress. The proposal with the most cosponsors, totaling 64 Democrats and 1 Republican as of the end of September 2019, is the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act (EICDA), introduced in February 2019 by lead sponsor Ted Deutch (D-FL). This study assesses the potential impacts of EICDA on the US energy system, environment, and economy. EICDA establishes a fee on each ton of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It covers over 80 percent of gross national emissions. The fee starts at $15 per metric ton and increases by $10 or $15 each year, depending on future emissions levels. Revenue raised by the carbon fee is used for “carbon dividends,” a rebate to every eligible US citizen or lawful resident. The bill also includes measures to protect US competitiveness and to reduce the risk that companies will relocate their operations to a different country with laxer climate laws. Through the carbon fee and additional regulations if necessary, EICDA targets 90 percent emissions reductions by 2050 compared to 2016 levels. This study is part of a joint effort by Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP) and Rhodium Group to help policymakers, journalists, and other stakeholders understand the important decisions associated with the design of carbon tax policies and the implications of these decisions. This analysis uses a version of the National Energy Modeling System maintained by the Rhodium Group (RHG-NEMS) to quantify the energy and environmental implications of EICDA, focusing on outcomes through 2030. Supplemental analyses provide insights on how EICDA would affect households, the economy, and government budgets. The following are key results: GHG emissions decline substantially. Compared to 2005 levels, implementing EICDA as a stand-alone policy leads to economy-wide net GHG emissions reductions of 32–33 percent by 2025 and 36–38 percent by 2030. These emissions reductions exceed the targets in the EICDA proposal through 2030 and exceed the US commitments to the Paris Agreement over this period. Most of the near-term emission reductions occur in the power sector, where emissions fall 82–84 percent by 2030. Air pollution also declines. EICDA reduces local air pollution from power plants. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) and mercury emissions from the power sector decline by more than 95 percent and emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) decline by about 75 percent by 2030 relative to a current policy scenario. Electricity generation shifts to cleaner sources. The price on carbon causes the US economy to shift from carbon-intensive energy sources to low- and zero-carbon energy sources. Coal is nearly eliminated from the power sector by 2030, with solar, wind, nuclear, and natural gas with carbon capture and storage all providing significantly larger generation shares compared to a current policy scenario. Energy prices rise but do not skyrocket. The price on carbon causes energy prices to increase for all carbon-emitting fuels, which leads to significantly higher overall energy expenditures, though within the range of recent historical variation. Taking two prominent examples, results show EICDA causing national average gasoline prices to increase by about 12 cents per gallon in 2020 and 90 cents per gallon in 2030 and causing national average electricity prices to increase by about 1 and 3 cents per kilowatt hour in 2020 and 2030, respectively. EICDA causes per capita energy expenditures to increase by $200-$210 in 2020 and $1,160-$1,170 in 2030 compared to a current policy scenario. In all years, annual per capita energy expenditures remain below the recent historical peak during the commodities crisis in 2008. The carbon dividend cushions energy price impacts. EICDA generates substantial revenue that is distributed in the form of equal dividend payments. EICDA generates $72–$75 billion in carbon tax revenues in 2020 and $403–$422 billion in 2030. This translates into an annual dividend for eligible adults of $250-$260 in 2020 and $1,410-$1,470 in 2030, with half those amounts also paid to eligible children. On average, the carbon dividend payments are comparable to the changes in energy expenditures caused by EICDA. Because higher-income households purchase far more carbon-intensive goods and services, distributing dividends equally implies that average low- and middle-income households receive more in dividends than they pay in increased economy-wide prices for goods and services resulting from the carbon tax. Net government revenue declines slightly, at least initially. Carbon tax-and-dividend policies are often described as “revenue neutral,” but the impacts of EICDA on government revenue are uncertain and likely negative in the near term. We estimate that the net government revenues under EICDA decline by roughly 10 percent of the annual carbon tax revenue in the early years of the policy. This estimate considers government revenue gains from taxing emissions and dividends, dividend payouts, and government revenue losses from reduced income and payroll taxes from those who pay the carbon tax. However, the proposal will also affect government revenue in other ways that are beyond the scope of our analysis, so the overall impacts on net government revenue is uncertain.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, and Carbon Tax
- Political Geography:
- United States
247. Decarbonizing Space Heating with Air Source Heat Pumps
- Author:
- Noah Kaufman, David Sandlow, and Clotilde Rossi de Schino
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- In the United States, commercial and residential buildings produce roughly 12 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. Most of these emissions come from burning fossil fuels for space heating. These emissions must be significantly reduced or eliminated for the US to achieve deep decarbonization goals, including net zero emissions by midcentury. Air source heat pumps (ASHPs) are powered by electricity, using well-established technology to move heat from outdoor air to indoor air. When powered by zero-carbon electricity, ASHPs provide space heating with almost no greenhouse gas emissions. ASHPs are especially effective for space heating in mild climates. In 2015, roughly 10 percent of US households (mostly in the Southeast) used air source heat pumps as their primary heating source.[1] ASHPs account for roughly one-third of residential space heating in Japan. The world’s largest ASHP market is in China, where sales are growing rapidly. Prominent studies on decarbonization of the US energy system focus on deployment of air source heat pumps as the primary strategy for reducing emissions from space heating. Some studies show near-universal electrification of space heating, suggesting that ASHPs (with some backup from electric resistance heaters) can be almost a silver bullet solution for decarbonizing space heating. These studies start with the assumption that fossil fuel furnaces and boilers will be gradually phased out. Other studies assume that electric heating technologies such as ASHPs will continue to compete against fossil fuel burning furnaces and boilers in the decades ahead. These studies conclude that furnaces and boilers will retain a significant share in space heating markets, even with technological progress and strong policy support for ASHPs, but often fail to explain why. Do high costs or inferior performance limit market penetration in these studies? Or do other barriers limit ASHP deployment? The answer has important implications for policy makers shaping decarbonization strategies. To help answer these questions, we built a simple model of ASHP adoption that estimates the lifetime costs of space heating and cooling configurations in three US cities with markedly different climates and energy costs: Atlanta, Georgia; San Diego, California; and Fargo, North Dakota. The model analyzes the choices facing hypothetical consumers installing new heating and cooling equipment in residential buildings. The consumers have the option to purchase an ASHP for heating and cooling (with backup if needed) or a natural gas furnace and air conditioner. Based on the model results and related research, we conclude: Air source heat pumps are cost competitive today in places where electricity is cheap and the climate is mild. With climate policies consistent with rapid decarbonization and reasonably foreseeable technological progress, air source heat pumps are the low-cost option for typical residential buildings across much of the US by the mid-2030s. Even in the very cold climate of Fargo, North Dakota, the combination of a price on carbon emissions and steady innovation in ASHPs causes ASHPs (with an electric resistance heater as a backup) to be cost competitive with new natural gas furnaces and air conditioners by the 2030s. If the United States commits to the rapid decarbonization of space heating by midcentury, the costs and performance of ASHPs are unlikely to be major barriers to deployment. However, other important barriers may persist, including contractors’ and homeowners’ greater familiarity with incumbent fossil fuel technologies and the slow turnover of the building stock. As a result of these additional barriers, emissions pricing and technological progress alone may not lead to deployment of air source heat pumps in the United States sufficient to achieve deep decarbonization by midcentury. That would likely require additional policy instruments such as technology standards, emissions caps, or mandates. Other technologies can also contribute to decarbonizing space heating, including renewable natural gas, hydrogen produced with carbon capture and storage (CCS) or electrolysis, and centralized or district heating. Each of these options comes with challenges that will require policy support to overcome. This study does not point to a proper balance between ASHPs and other space heating decarbonization technologies. More research is needed to compare different approaches and strategies. In the meantime, our analysis suggests little if any downside to pursuing ambitious policies to promote deployment of ASHPs, prioritizing regions where heat pumps are currently most cost effective. A large-scale increase in ASHP deployments is likely to be an important part of any space heating decarbonization scenario.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Fossil Fuels
- Political Geography:
- United States
248. Outcome Report on the Climate Crisis, Global Land Use and Human Rights Conference
- Author:
- Mateusz Kasprowicz, Sam Szoke-Burke, and Kaitlin Y. Cordes
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
- Abstract:
- On September 27th, the Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment (CCSI), the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Landesa, the New York City Bar Association International Environmental Law Committee, and Wake Forest Law School hosted a day-long conference on the intersection between land use, the climate crisis and clean energy transition, and human rights. Held at the Ford Foundation Center for Social Justice, the conference brought together individuals from civil society organizations, governments, and academia, as well as lawyers, climate scientists, land-rights experts, indigenous representatives and other stakeholder groups. The panelists analyzed the critical role that land plays in achieving climate solutions, the degree to which climate change may reshape regional abilities to support sustainable ecosystems, and the ways in which these land and climate interactions might affect land rights, human rights, and achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Human Rights, and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
249. A Dialogue of Rivers: The River & I
- Author:
- Kishalay Bhattacharjee, Parineeta Dandekar, and Parineeta Roy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- India International Centre (IIC)
- Abstract:
- How many of us have read river stories? Or river poems? How many of us have known a river? Most of us have crossed a river on a bridge, or may have taken a boat or a ferry, but I’m not sure how many of us have actually touched the river or felt the river. The river is not just cusecs of water that ecologists love to define. The river has its own rhythm. To be able to bring back rivers, to be able to bring back rivers to life, perhaps we need to understand its rhythm. We need to understand rivers as a body interconnected with ourselves. River Dialogues is an attempt to have a free flowing conversation, as free flowing as a river should be and can be without dams coming in between, and try and re-imagine or possibly imagine for most of us who have not felt the river, seen the river, or imagined the river in a very long time. Joining me today are Sumana Roy, and Parineeta Dandekar. Parineeta is a river researcher based in the US. She’s an ecologist who finds herself moving towards understanding rivers and its ‘Bhav-taal’. Sumana Roy is a poet, writer and a teacher who has given us some of the most lyrical insights into our forgotten lives. Her first book, How I Became a Tree is a ‘love song on plants and trees’ and introduces the idea of ‘plant humanities’ and how to live with ‘tree time’. She is now working on water/rivers. The idea of having these two persons talk about the river is about gaining perspectives on the river. In earlier episodes we travelled down Sahibi, the dead river of Delhi, Narmada, Adyar, Teesta, Tsangpo, Siang, Brahmaputra, Jamuna, Meghna, Padma, Ganga and the Yamuna.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Water, Culture, Ecology, and Rivers
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and India
250. The Content of a WTO Climate Waiver
- Author:
- James Bacchus
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Neither the trade regime nor the climate regime has so far displayed any willingness to confront the coming clash between climate ambitions and trade rules. To minimize the economic and political risks of such a collision, the members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) should adopt a WTO climate waiver. To further carbon pricing and to facilitate the necessary green transition in the global economy, the core of a WTO climate waiver should be a waiver from the applicable trade rules for national measures that: discriminate on the basis of carbon and other greenhouse gases used or emitted in making a product; fit the definition of a climate response measure as defined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; and do not discriminate in a manner that constitutes a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade. A WTO climate waiver should also include support for trade restrictions by carbon markets and climate clubs, trade disciplines on fossil fuel subsidies, and green subsidies that support innovative outcomes rather than particular technologies. Along with a climate waiver, WTO members should also confirm that carbon taxes qualify as border tax adjustments under trade rules. The adoption of a WTO climate waiver is a central and critical part of the overall reimagining of international trade law that is needed to fulfill the stated WTO goal of engaging in trade and other economic endeavours consistently with the objectives of sustainable development.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, and Green Technology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus