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8301. The Cyclically Adjusted Budget: History and Exegesis of a Fateful Estimate

Author:
Orsola Costantini
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper traces the evolution of the concept of the cyclically adjusted budget from the 1930s to the present. The idea of balancing the budget over the cycle was first conceived in Sweden in the 1930s by the economists of the Stockholm School and was soon reinterpreted and incorporated into the fiscal program of the American political coalition supporting the New Deal, especially by the Committee for Economic Development during and after World War II. In the 1960s, Keynesian economists associated with the Kennedy and Johnson administrations reformulated the notion. Despite their claims at the time, their version differed only in degree from the earlier CED approach, the transformation being largely conditioned by changing political circumstances. In the 1980s, however, the concept changed substantially. Methods for calculating it transformed dramatically, as the notion became a device to limit and direct governments’ fiscal policies in a wide sense, that is, including institutional (or “structural”) reforms. The final section of the paper considers the shifting uses of the notion in the European Growth and Stability Pact.
Topic:
Economics, Budget, Economic Growth, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

8302. When Credit Bites Back: Leverage, Business Cycles and Crises

Author:
Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper studies the role of credit in the business cycle, with a focus on private credit overhang. Based on a study of the universe of over 200 recession episodes in 14 advanced countries between 1870 and 2008, we document two key facts of the modern business cycle: financial-crisis recessions are more costly than normal recessions in terms of lost output; and for both types of recession, more credit-intensive expansions tend to be followed by deeper recessions and slower recoveries. In additional to unconditional analysis, we use local projection methods to condition on a broad set of macroeconomic controls and their lags. Then we study how past credit accumulation impacts the behavior of not only output but also other key macroeconomic variables such as investment, lending, interest rates, and inflation. The facts that we uncover lend support to the idea that financial factors play an important role in the modern business cycle.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Fiscal Policy, Private Sector, and Credit
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8303. Religious Riots and Electoral Politics in India

Author:
Sryia Iyer and Anand Shrivastava
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The effect of ethnic violence on electoral results provides useful insights into voter behaviour and the incentives for political parties in democratic societies. The effect of ethnic violence on electoral results provides useful insights into voter behaviour and the incentives for political parties in democratic societies. Religious riots have claimed more than 14,000 lives in India since 1950. We study the effect of Hindu-Muslim riots on election results in India. We combine data on riots with electoral data on state legislature elections and control variables on demographics and public goods provision to construct a unique panel data set for 16 large states in India over a 25 year period commencing in 1977. We use a new instrument that draws upon the random variation in the day of the week that important Hindu festivals fall on in each year to isolate the causal effect of riots on electoral results. We find that riots occurring in the year preceding an election increase the vote share of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the election. We find suggestive evidence that communal polarisation is the likely mechanism driving our results.
Topic:
Politics, Religion, Minorities, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Exclusion
Political Geography:
India and Asia

8304. Working Paper Exploring the Concept of Homeostasis and Considering its Implications for Economics

Author:
Antonio Damasio and Hanna Damasio
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The reality of human homeostasis expands the views on preferences and rational choice that are part of traditionally conceived Homo economicus and casts doubts on economic models that depend only on an “invisible hand” mechanism. In its standard format, the concept of homeostasis refers to the ability, present in all living organisms, of continuously maintaining certain functional variables within a range of values compatible with survival. The mechanisms of homeostasis were originally conceived as strictly automatic and as pertaining only to the state of an organism’s internal environment. In keeping with this concept, homeostasis was, and still is, often explained by analogy to a thermostat: upon reaching a previously set temperature, the device commands itself to either suspend the ongoing operation (cooling or heating), or to initiate it, as appropriate. This traditional explanation fails to capture the richness of the concept and the range of circumstances in which it can be applied to living systems. Our goal here is to consider a more comprehensive view of homeostasis. This includes its application to systems in which the presence of conscious and deliberative minds, individually and in social groups, permits the creation of supplementary regulatory mechanisms aimed at achieving balanced and thus survivable life states but more prone to failure than the fully automated mechanisms. We suggest that an economy is an example of one such regulatory mechanism, and that facts regarding human homeostasis may be of value in the study of economic problems. Importantly, the reality of human homeostasis expands the views on preferences and rational choice that are part of traditionally conceived Homo economicus and casts doubts on economic models that depend only on an “invisible hand” mechanism.
Topic:
Economics, Regulation, Models, and Homeostasis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8305. Networks and Misallocation: Insurance, Migration, and the Rural-Urban Wage Gap

Author:
Kaivan Munshi and Mark Rosenzweig
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We provide an explanation for the large spatial wage disparities and low male migration in India based on the trade-off between consumption-smoothing, provided by caste-based rural insurance networks, and the income-gains from migration. We provide an explanation for the large spatial wage disparities and low male migration in India based on the trade-off between consumption-smoothing, provided by caste-based rural insurance networks, and the income-gains from migration. Our theory generates two key empirically-verified predictions: (i) males in relatively wealthy households within a caste who benefit less from the redistributive (surplus- maximizing) network will be more likely to migrate, and (ii) males in households facing greater rural income-risk (who benefit more from the insurance network) migrate less. Structural estimates show that small improvements in formal insurance decrease the spatial misallocation of labor by substantially increasing migration.
Topic:
Migration, Income Inequality, Urban, Rural, Caste, Insurance, Redistribution, Wage Growth, and Wealth
Political Geography:
India and Asia

8306. Wealth Concentration, Income Distribution, and Alternatives for the USA

Author:
Lance Taylor, Özlem Ömer, and Armon Rezai
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
US household wealth concentration is not likely to decline in response to fiscal interventions alone. Creation of an independent public wealth fund could lead to greater equality. Similarly, once-off tax/transfer packages or wage increases will not reduce income inequality significantly; on-going wage increases in excess of productivity growth would be needed. These results come from the accounting in a simulation model based on national income and financial data. The theory behind the model borrows from ideas that originated in Cambridge UK (especially from Luigi Pasinetti and Richard Goodwin).
Topic:
Inequality, Income Inequality, Tax Systems, Redistribution, and Wealth
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8307. Wealth Concentration, Income Distribution, and Alternatives for the USA

Author:
Lance Taylor, Özlem Ömer, and Armon Rezai
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
US household wealth concentration is not likely to decline in response to fiscal interventions alone. Creation of an independent public wealth fund could lead to greater equality. Similarly, once-off tax/transfer packages or wage increases will not reduce income inequality significantly; on-going wage increases in excess of productivity growth would be needed. These results come from the accounting in a simulation model based on national income and financial data. The theory behind the model borrows from ideas that originated in Cambridge UK (especially from Luigi Pasinetti and Richard Goodwin).
Topic:
Inequality, Income Inequality, Tax Systems, Redistribution, and Wealth
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8308. Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect- Foresight Analysis

Author:
Mariana Garcia-Schmidt
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
A prolonged period of extremely low nominal interest rates has not resulted in high inflation. This has led to increased interest in the “Neo-Fisherian” proposition according to which low nominal interest rates may themselves cause inflation to be lower. The fact that standard models of the effects of monetary policy have the property that perfect foresight equilibria in which the nominal interest rate remains low forever necessarily involve low inflation (at least eventually) might seem to support such a view. Here, however, we argue that such a conclusion depends on a misunderstanding of the circumstances under which it makes sense to predict the effects of a monetary policy commitment by calculating the perfect foresight equilibrium consistent with the policy. We propose an explicit cognitive process by which agents may form their expectations of future endogenous variables. Under some circumstances, such as a commitment to follow a Taylor rule, a perfect foresight equilibrium (PFE) can arise as a limiting case of our more general concept of reflective equilibrium, when the process of reflection is pursued sufficiently far. But we show that an announced intention to fix the nominal interest rate for a long enough period of time creates a situation in which reflective equilibrium need not resemble any PFE. In our view, this makes PFE predictions not plausible outcomes in the case of policies of the latter sort. According to the alternative approach that we recommend, a commitment to maintain a low nominal interest rate for longer should always be expansionary and inflationary, rather than causing deflation; but the effects of such “forward guidance” are likely, in the case of a long- horizon commitment, to be much less expansionary or inflationary than the usual PFE analysis would imply.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8309. Tracking Variation in Systemic Risk at US Banks During 1974-2013

Author:
Edward J. Kane, Armen Hovakimian, and Luc Laeven
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a theoretically based and easy-to-implement way to measure the systemic risk of financial institutions using publicly available accounting and stock market data. The measure models the credit enhancement taxpayers provide to individual banks in the Merton tradition (1974) as a combination put option for the deep tail of bank losses and a knock-in stop-loss call on bank assets. This model expresses the value of taxpayer loss exposure from a string of defaults as the value of this combination option written on the portfolio of industry assets. The exercise price of the call is the face value of the debt of the entire sector. We conceive of an individual bank’s systemic risk as its contribution to the value of this sector- wide option on the financial safety net. To the extent that authorities are slow to see bank losses or reluctant to exercise the call, the government itself becomes a secondary source of systemic risk. We apply our model to quarterly data over the period 1974-2013. The model indicates that systemic risk reached unprecedented highs during the financial crisis years 2008- 2009, and that bank size, leverage, and asset risk are key drivers of systemic risk.
Topic:
Banks, Institutions, Risk, Credit, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8310. The Consumption Response to Liquidity-Enhancing Transfers: Evidence from Italian Earthquakes

Author:
Antonio Acconcia and Saverio Simonelli
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth Exploiting three earthquakes in Italy as quasi-experiments, we analyse the response of homeowners’ consumption to transfers targeted to finance housing repair and reconstruction. To the extent that funds are made available up-front, these transfers are akin to loans, mainly affecting the liquidity of households’ wealth. We show that these transfers have little effect over a multi-year horizon—they are not a windfall. Yet, access to reconstruction transfers has a strong and significant effect on non- durable consumption on impact, especially for households with a low level of liquid wealth and bank debt. In contrast, we find no significant consumption change in response to the in-kind equivalent of cash transfers. Our study contributes to the recent literature on the dynamics of the consumption demand by the wealthy hand-to-mouth, providing micro-evidence in line with the main predictions of the theory.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Homeownership, Housing, Earthquake, and Liquidity
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

8311. Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Author:
M. Hashem Pesaran
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross- sectionally dependent errors and illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo experiments, that they perform well in small samples. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries (grouped into advanced and developing) over the 1965-2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a country with a high level of debt can grow just as fast as its peers.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Economic Growth, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8312. Aggregating Elasticities: Intensive and Extensive Margins of Female Labour Supply

Author:
Orazio P. Attanasio, Peter Levell, Hamish Low, and Virginia Sanchez-Marcos
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
There is a renewed interest in the size of labour supply elasticities and the discrepancy between micro and macro estimates. Recent contributions have stressed the distinction between changes in labour supply at the extensive and the intensive margin. In this paper, we stress the importance of individual heterogeneity and aggregation problems. There is a renewed interest in the size of labour supply elasticities and the discrepancy between micro and macro estimates. Recent contributions have stressed the distinction between changes in labour supply at the extensive and the intensive margin. In this paper, we stress the importance of individual heterogeneity and aggregation problems. At the intensive margins, simple specifications that seem to fit the data give rise to non linear expressions that do not aggregate in a simple fashion. At the extensive margin, aggregate changes in participation are likely to depend on the cross sectional distribution of state variables when a shock hits and, therefore, are likely to be history dependent. We tackle these aggregation issues directly by specifying a life cycle model to explain female labour supply in the US and estimate its various components. We estimate the parameters of different component of the model. Our results indicate that (i) at the intensive margin, Marshallian and Hicksian elasticities are very heterogeneous and, on average, relatively large; (ii) Frisch elasticities are, as implied by the theory, even larger; (iii) aggregate labour supply elasticities seem to vary over the business cycle, being larger during recessions.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Feminism, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8313. Beyond Competitive Devaluations: The Monetary Dimensions of Comparative Advantage

Author:
Paul R. Bergin
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Motivated by the long-standing debate on the pros and cons of competitive devaluation, we propose a new perspective on how monetary and exchange rate policies can contribute to a country’s international competitiveness. We refocus the analysis on the implications of monetary stabilization for a country’s comparative advantage. Motivated by the long-standing debate on the pros and cons of competitive devaluation, we propose a new perspective on how monetary and exchange rate policies can contribute to a country’s international competitiveness. We refocus the analysis on the implications of monetary stabilization for a country’s comparative advantage. We develop a two-country New-Keynesian model allowing for two tradable sectors in each country: while one sector is perfectly competitive, firms in the other sector produce differentiated goods under monopolistic competition subject to sunk entry costs and nominal rigidities, hence their performance is more sensitive to macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that, by stabilizing markups, monetary policy can foster the competitiveness of these firms, encouraging investment and entry in the differentiated goods sector, and ultimately affecting the composition of domestic output and exports. Panel regressions based on worldwide exports to the U.S. by sector lend empirical support to the theory. Constraining monetary policy with an exchange rate peg lowers a country’s share of differentiated goods in exports between 4 and 12 percent.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Monopoly, Strategic Competition, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8314. Contagion Exposure and Protection Technology

Author:
Deigo Cerdeiro
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
People adopt diverse measures to protect from contagion. I propose a taxonomy of protection technologies, and present a model to study the implications of the technology on the prevalence of infections and on welfare at different levels of exposure. People adopt diverse measures to protect from contagion. I propose a taxonomy of protection technologies, and present a model to study the implications of the technology on the prevalence of infections and on welfare at different levels of exposure. I find that the effect of aggregate exposure on prevalence and on protection inefficiencies depends crucially on the characteristics of the available protection technology. For example, under certain conditions the existence of a vaccine will lead to lower infection rates and smaller welfare costs of decentralization as the society becomes denser. I discuss the implications for disease eradication, the equilibrium consequences of antigenic drift, the desirability of interventions in the absence of universal vaccines, and coordination failures in protection.
Topic:
Health, Science and Technology, Infectious Diseases, and Medicine
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8315. Too much saving... or too few financing channels?

Author:
Anton Brender and Florence Pisani
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The global financial crisis led to widespread dislocation. Understanding the forces that led to such a crisis is no easy matter. After briefly looking back at the mechanics underlying the recent episode of international transfers of saving, this paper looks at how the resulting global imbalances started to unwind and why helping promote the building of new financing channels should now be governments’ priority.
Topic:
Government, Financial Crisis, Global Financial Crisis, and Saving
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8316. Global Crises, Equalizing and Dis-equalizing Capitalist Regimes: The Case of 20th Century Asian Political Economy

Author:
Vamsi Vakulabharanam
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The logic of deep global capitalist crises needs to be incorporated centrally into an understanding of the changes in the within-country inequality levels. I present a theoretical framework that incorporates two levels of political economic processes. First, global capitalist crises lead to the creation of an institutional structure or a regime in the capitalist centers that influences inequality in these core countries and in the periphery. Second the class configuration in the non-core countries - a set of institutional arrangements that can be termed local political economy - also plays a key role in determining inequality outcomes. The main argument of this short note is that these two sets of processes interact to produce patterns of within country-inequality that we observe across the world. In the Asian case, high growth was accompanied by declining inequality for a period of three decades after World War 2. However, with the crisis of global capitalism during the 1970s, a new regime was created in the global center that pushed inequalities higher across the world. These changes occurred through the implementation of policy structures that have disproportionately favored urban elites. In the Asian economies too, growth was accompanied by rising inequality after the 1980s. I use these experiences to argue that growth episodes in capitalism that follow effective demand crises (such as the Great Depression) seem to allow for lower within-country inequality. Growth episodes that follow profitability crises by contrast tend to cause increases in the within-country inequality. However, this is not a deterministic frame of analysis, as the recent experience of most countries with austerity policies suggests, even if this recent experience might well be a passing phase.
Topic:
Political Economy, Capitalism, Inequality, Finance, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
Asia

8317. Social Interaction Models and Keynes’ Macroeconomics

Author:
Duncan Foley
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The central concepts of Keynes’ macroeconomic theories concerning the behavior of labor markets, aggregate demand, and asset pricing can be formulated as special cases of a general social interaction model. In its simplest form this model analyzes a system of interacting identical agents, each of whom controls the level of an action, and all of whom have the same utility functions trading off the effort required by the action with the monetary incentives for it. When the incentives include an interaction term involving the action levels of the other agents, the equilibrium outcome is in general Pareto-inefficient for the interacting agents, and multiple equilibria are possible. The expectations that lie at the heart of Keynes’ conception of macroeconomic equilibrium concern the behavior of other individuals rather than concrete forecasts of the concrete path of prices.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Microeconomics, Keynes, and Behavior
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8318. Two Paths to War: The Origins of the First World War versus the Dynamics of Contemporary Sino-American Confrontations

Author:
James Kurth
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
During the past year, there have been numerous and somber reflections, rather like those during a traditional period of mourning, about the great and tragic events that occurred just 100 years ago – the beginning of the First World War. And in the course of these melancholy reflections about the past, there naturally have arisen anxious concerns about the future. Is it possible that we may once again be entering into an era of great conflicts, or even of a great war, between the great powers of the time? Are there important and ominous similarities between the international situation before the First World War and the international situation of today?
Topic:
Development, Government, Politics, History, and Inequality
Political Geography:
China and United States of America

8319. Information and Economics: A New Way to Think About Expectations and to Improve Economic Prediction.

Author:
David Tuckett, Paul Ormerod, Rickard Nyman, and Robert Elliot Smith
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The largely unexpected arrival of the global economic crisis and the largely unpredicted slowness of the recovery from the Great Recession should be precipitating an intellectual crisis across economics and policy making. We require additional theories and additional methods to detect how an economy is evolving and to provide the basis for policy intervention (Haldane, 2014).
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Microeconomics, and Behavior
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8320. Twisting the economic tale: what literature can do that political economy can’t

Author:
Sara Thornton
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper will address the problem of how we might gain economic understanding from literature. It will look at the aesthetic form of literature as being an efficient vehicle for economic thinking.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Culture, Inequality, History, and Literature
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8321. Capital Flight from Africa and Development Inequality: Domestic and Global Dimensions

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Over the past decades African economies have exhibited two stunning paradoxes: growth acceleration coexisting with stubbornly high poverty rates; increasing capital flight along with widening development financing gaps. There has been no attempt to link the two in the literature. This paper attempts to fill the gap; it suggests that the implications of capital flight for the inequality-growth-poverty nexus may be the key. Specifically, the paper proposes to shift attention to conceptual and empirical analysis of the implications of capital flight for inequality along income lines and inequality in development both within African countries and between Africa and advanced economies. The evidence presented in the paper indicates that Africa may be more unequal along human development dimensions than along income, and points to the possibility that capital flight may be one of the factors behind the observed limited poverty reduction gains from growth and persistent development gap between African countries and advanced economies.
Topic:
Development, Government, Politics, History, Economies, Inequality, Finance, Microeconomics, Capital Flight, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa

8322. The Prince('s) Rules: Economic Theories and Political Struggle in Europe

Author:
Orsola Costantini
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The Cyclically Adjusted Budget (CAB) is the estimated size of the public budget at some previously defined level of output which may represent the ‘normal’ output or a policy target and that usually is considered to be unaffected by business fluctuations or cycles. Such an estimate is supposed to isolate the automatic movements of revenues and expenditures, given the current structure of tax and transfers, from discretionary fiscal interventions and indicate the “impact” and sustainability of fiscal action. But this definition hardly does justice to the long and contentious history of this fateful estimate, which has been differently named, interpreted and calculated over the years and played a crucial role in many of the most important controversies in macroeconomics and public policy. This paper traces the evolution of the concept through time, tying it to the history of economic thought as well as economic history and policymaking. The reconstruction illustrates the important role the distribution of power plays in the evolution of economic theory and policy as the historical forms of the state-market relationship evolve. Here, however, we will focus mainly on the case of the European Union and Eurozone.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Science and Technology, History, Inequality, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Europe

8323. Social investment for inclusive growth: a Southern European perspective

Author:
Annamaria Simonazzi
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Inequality has emerged as a major economic issue: sharp increases in the share of income going to those at the very top of the income distribution, a rising share of income going to profits, stagnant real wages, and a fall in median family income have raised concern over the sustainability of our economies and societies.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Inequality, Investment, Innovation, and Social Investment
Political Geography:
Southern Europe

8324. Towards a Sovereign Debt Restructuring Framework

Author:
Richard A. Conn Jr.
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Initiatives to improve sovereign debt restructuring (“SDR”) began long before recent Argentine bond decisions but were redoubled in the aftermath of these rulings. At first glance, these cases identify problematic contract language that could be rectified by re-drafting critical boilerplate provisions such as the pari passu and collective action clauses (“CAC”). But given the effects of disorder, costs and delays in restructuring foreign sovereign debt upon debtor countries, creditors, and the bond market itself, it is understandable that some are uncomfortable leaving such matters solely in the hands of private parties to contracts without a framework that assists in minimizing damage to contracting and non-contracting parties alike. The creation of an agreed upon framework that facilitates the interaction among private and public parties is a good alternative to the status quo if this approach can provide greater stability and efficiency in the restructuring process while allowing for sufficient flexibility and certainty (traditional benefits of the iterative development of contract language) for market participants. There are a broad variety of options to consider and analyses to be performed, particularly relating to political feasibility, before proposing a framework. As discussed herein, given the historic context of SDR, a framework that focuses upon consensual procedures seems to be a logical starting point since it could add value to the restructuring process without treading on the political terrain of sovereigns.
Topic:
Government, Politics, History, Inequality, Finance, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8325. Anarchic East Asia on an American Tether—and Cushion

Author:
Bruce Cumings
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The usual explanation for the recent turmoil in East Asia goes under the rubric of “the rise of China.” For practitioners of the “realist” school, like John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago or the late Samuel Huntington of Harvard, all this is merely, and entirely, predictable: “rise” is what budding great powers do, just as in the fullness of time, a war with the leading great power is only to be expected (as both predicted in their most famous books—The Tragedy of Great Power Politics and The Clash of Civilizations). Realists of the containment school take this a bit further, to a strategy for America: contain rising China. This was certainly the policy of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, lining up publicly as she did with the Philippines and Japan against Chinese island encroachments—which may also turn out to be the policy of President Hillary Clinton in 2017. And this is unquestionably how nearly all experts in China see American policy: containment, encirclement, all in the interests of keeping rising China . . . down. Of course, President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry fall all over themselves to deny that containment is the policy—and under their (questionable and unsteady) leadership, perhaps it isn’t. Instead the overriding Obama strategy is benign neglect of the political and the military, thus to engage China in the overarching global commons, neo-liberalism, bringing it ever deeper into capitalist practice and the world economy thus to muffle if not contain its insurgent impulses. But then that has been American policy since Richard Nixon ended the Cold War between Washington and Beijing, supported all along by a quiet but very secure bipartisan coalition in Washington embracing Democrats and Republicans, and more broadly Wall Street and multinational corporate leaders. Everybody has been making money in China, even recently-bankrupt General Motors (China now has the largest auto market in the world, and Chinese like to buy GM’s Buicks even though hardly anyone else does, perhaps because forefather Sun Yat Sen drove a Buick). The watchword here is neo-liberal interdependence, but the practice is to let the colossal dailiness of Sino-American exchange fly under the radar, or remain sotto voce, unacknowledged, even secret—hoping no one pays too much attention.
Topic:
Development, Government, Politics, History, and Finance
Political Geography:
East Asia and United States of America

8326. Gordian knot: A panoramic perspective on stemming illicit financial flows from Africa

Author:
Melvin Ayogu
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Pushing this strand of research brings a certain feeling of trepidation. It comes from recognizing that by openly elaborating on how to catch or deter a criminal, you thereby confer an undue advantage on the criminal through forewarning. Obtaining a head start in the race to prevail, they (criminals) are able to consider and possibly devise an effective circumvention strategy. But if the criminal must not see it coming then, what aspects of how to stop a thief shall we and shall we not reveal or discuss openly amongst all? There are no easy answers to the conundrum. For instance, one has to consider the signaling value of openly engaging in discussions on how to stop criminal activities and then, balance that benefit against the paradox of empowerment. The balancing act is important because some aspects of the preventive remedies can unintentionally enable the very thing which society is striving to prevent.
Topic:
Development, Government, Politics, History, Inequality, Finance, Microeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Africa

8327. Severing the Innovation-Inequality Link: Distribution Sensitive Science, Technology and Innovation Policies in Developed Nations

Author:
Amos Zehavi and Dan Breznitz
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Innovation is essential to economic growth. However, it appears that the ways in which we pursue innovation policies have aggravated inequality. Inequality is an increasingly contentious political issue in both wealthy and emerging economies. Yet, it is becoming clear that use of traditional state instruments to alleviate inequality by redistributive means, is no longer sufficient. For those reasons, in this paper we consider other state instruments that are rarely associated with distributive goals. Specifically, we inquire whether we can successfully devise and employ Distributive-Sensitive Science and Technology and Innovation Policies focused on disadvantaged groups of users and consumers of technology. Following an exploratory theoretical approach, the paper first develop four types of such programs, and then utilize a comparative approach to analyze existing programs that fit into these categories, first, in Israel, and then, in the United State, Germany, and Sweden. We conclude by arguing that although these programs are currently driven primarily by economic efficiency concerns and not by distributive ones, they show the promise of our approach of utilizing innovation policy to reach social policy goals.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Science and Technology, Inequality, Economic Growth, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Israel, Germany, Sweden, and United States of America

8328. Leveraging the network: a stress-test framework based on DebtRank

Author:
Stefano Battiston, Guido Caldarelli, Marco D'Errico, and Stefano Gurciullo
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We develop a novel stress-test framework to monitor systemic risk in financial systems. The modular structure of the framework allows to accommodate for a variety of shock scenarios, methods to estimate interbank exposures and mechanisms of distress propagation. The main features are as follows. First, estimate and disentangle not only first-round effects(i.e. shock on external assets) and second-round effects (i.e. distress induced in the interbank network), but also a third-round effect induced by possible fire sales. Second, monitor at the same time the impact of shocks on individual or groups of financial institutions as well as their vulnerability to shocks on counterparties or certain asset classes. Third, estimate loss distributions, thus combining network effects with familiar risk measures such as VaR and CVaR. Fourth, in order to do robustness analyses and cope with incomplete data, generate sets of networks of interbank exposures coherent with the total lending and borrowing of each bank. As an illustration, we carry out a stress–test exercise on a dataset of listed European banks over the years 2008-2013. We find that second-round and third-round effects dominate first-round effects, therefore suggesting that most current stress-test frameworks might lead to a severe underestimation of systemic risk.
Topic:
Debt, Science and Technology, Inequality, Finance, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8329. Labour in Europe’s crisis

Author:
Mario Pianta
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
A structural transformation is investing labour in Europe, accelerated by the crisis started in 2008. Job destruction is dominating employment trends in most EU countries and deep changes are taking place in labour relations, labour market institutions and wage regimes. The focus of this paper is on three issues. First,an overview is offered of the change taking place across EU countries at the level of industries in manufacturing and services. Second, the changes taking place in the structure of employment by professional groups are investigated, showing the factors that account for the evolution of skills. Third, the need for policies is argued, that are not limited to labour market conditions, but address production structures, especially in the countries hardest hit by the crisis.
Topic:
Labor Issues, European Union, Crisis Management, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe

8330. The New York Times and American Tax Policy: Representing Citizens or Echoing Elites?

Author:
Daniel Chomsky
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
A recent New York Times article observed that Americans want action to address inequality. 2016 presidential candidates from both parties also acknowledge that inequality is a pressing concern. But not one of the candidates has proposed to do anything meaningful about it, sharing wealthy Americans’ (understandable) opposition to any solution (Scheiber 2015). Perhaps nothing has been done because there is nothing to do about it. Some treat inequality as an inevitable or intractable feature of the global economy, or at least impossible to alter at acceptable cost (Cowen 2013). But inequality may be subject to political circumstances, and public policies including progressive taxes might reduce it without adversely affecting economic growth (Diamond and Saez 2011, Piketty 2014). It may be that Americans are just unwilling to support policies that would reduce inequality. Progressive taxation and other policies may reduce inequality. But policy reflects public preferences (Stimson, Mackuen, and Erikson 2002), and the American people just hate taxes. Martin Gilens (2012) effectively demonstrated that policy makers favor the wealthy over the majority when opinions diverge. Yet he accepted that the Bush tax cuts in the early 2000s reflected broad consensus opinion. Public opposition to taxes is seen as so powerful that even observers seeking programs to promote economic equality often abandon progressive taxes as a remedy (Kenworthy 2013).
Topic:
Race, Science and Technology, History, Culture, Ethics, Philosophy, Tax Systems, and Innovation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8331. Pseudo-wealth Fluctuations and Aggregate Demand Effects

Author:
Martin Guzman and Joseph E. Stiglitz
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper presents a theory of pseudo-wealth in a model that displays aggregate demand externalities. With heterogeneous beliefs and a market for exploiting those differences in beliefs, pseudo-wealth will be created–i.e. the sum of expected wealth of all the individuals will be larger than what it is feasible for the society. Under some conditions, those perceptions will lead to larger levels of consumption of (tradable and non-tradable) goods, leisure, and borrowing than in a world with common beliefs. If those differences in beliefs disappear, pseudo-wealth will disappear, leading to adjustments in behavior that amplify the initial decrease in expected wealth. That is, we provide a simple general equilibrium model in which the destruction of pseudo-wealth amplifies the effects of the initial disturbance, leading to large decreases in economic activity. Importantly, this downturn is not associated with any change in the state variables that describe the economy. More generally, the paper shows that completing markets (in this case by creating a market for bets) may imply lower output both in the present and in the future, raising unsettling questions on criteria for welfare analysis.
Topic:
Markets, Inequality, Finance, Macroeconomics, Welfare, and Wealth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8332. Board Gender Diversity, Audit Fees and Auditor Choice

Author:
Judy Tsui
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Using a sample of U.S. firms spanning 2001-2011, we examine whether female directors (female audit committee members) affect audit quality in terms of audit effort and auditor choice. After correcting for endogeneity and other board, firm and industry characteristics, we find that firms with gender-diverse boards pay higher audit fees and are more likely to choose specialist auditors compared to their peers. Our findings suggest that boards with female directors are likely to demand higher audit quality, ceteris paribus.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Race, Culture, Inequality, Diversity, Private Sector, and Audit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8333. Top incomes and the glass ceiling

Author:
Tony Atkinson, Alessandra Casarico, Sarah Voitchovsky, Facundo Alvaredo, Jorgen Modalsli, and Jakob Søgaard
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper studies the glass ceiling by analyzing the presence of women at the top of the income distribution using tax record data reported for a sample of countries with individual taxation. Extending most of the associated literature, the glass ceiling is examined in relation to the distribution of total incomes, thereby bringing self-employment and capital income into the picture. We show that female presence at the top of the distribution has increased, but that these changes do not seem to apply to the very top percentiles, especially in Denmark and the UK. When we look at the gradient in income as one moves up the distribution, we note that the difference between men and women has become larger in the UK, but not in Norway, although Norway displays a lower share of women in almost all top percentiles compared to the other countries in our sample. The analysis of the composition of income reveals that in the UK women have more investment income and less earned income, with the proportion from self-employment being similar for men and women over time. More dramatic changes in composition appear for Spain.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, Income Inequality, Tax Systems, and Glass Ceiling
Political Geography:
Europe

8334. Perverse and virtuous feedbacks between inequality and innovation: Which role for public institutions and public investment?

Author:
Alberto Botta
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In this paper, we deal with the complex relationship connecting inequality to innovation, and the ways through which public investment, in particular public participation to R&D initiatives, may affect it. We first stress that multiple different equilibria may exist in the inequality-innovation space. The positive link that part of the economic theory often assumes between (initially) rising inequality and improving innovation performances emerges as only one among many other far less virtuous dynamics. We then analyze the specific case of the US. We put emphasis on the possible perverse effects that the financialization of the US economy may induce on the inequality-innovation nexus. We also note that the US developmental State that is very often neglected by the economic literature may effectively mitigate such undesirable outcomes. According to our interpretation of recent developments in the US economy, the widespread belief in the positive proinnovation effects of fierce cutthroat remuneration systems may prove to be ungrounded.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, Innovation, Financialisation, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8335. How Money Drives US Congressional Elections: More Evidence

Author:
Thomas Ferguson, Paul Jorgenson, and Jie Chen
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The protesters who swirled into parks, churches, and town squares around the world in the fall of 2011 to challenge the primacy of the “1%” hammered relentlessly on one theme above all others: that economic inequality has deep roots in the political system. Many social scientists and intellectuals who have picked up from where the Occupy movement left off share this conviction; they, too, have broken with the taboos that for so long segmented discussions of politics from economics. Piketty, in his monumental study, for example, avows that income distribution is a basically a question of “political economy” not pure economics. Stiglitz in The Price of Inequality is equally forthright – “increasingly, and especially in the United States, it seems that the political system is more akin to ‘one dollar one vote’ than to ‘one person one vote.’”
Topic:
Government, Politics, Science and Technology, History, Elections, Inequality, and Money
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8336. Austeritarianism in Europe: What Options for Resistance?

Author:
Richard Hyman
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In much of Europe, the social rights and social protections won in the first post-war decades, by labour movements in particular, have subsequently been seriously eroded, and are further threatened by neoliberal austerity. Efforts to resist have been largely unsuccessful; but is an effective fight-back possible? In this paper I first outline the role of the European Union (EU) as a key driver of the recommodification of labour, through its growing emphasis on market ‘freedoms’ as an overriding priority, and on ‘competitiveness’ as the central policy objective for national governments. I discuss how this orientation has been reinforced by the economic crisis, and the ensuing pursuit of austerity and the imposition of ‘new economic governance’. I then survey a range of forms of protest and opposition: trade union action, ‘new’ social movements and engagement in the formal political arena. I suggest that a nuanced evaluation of success and failure is necessary. In conclusion I propose that the articulation of different forms of resistance – cross-nationally and between different actors – is essential in order to stem the neoliberal hegemony.
Topic:
Race, Science and Technology, History, Culture, Inequality, Finance, Ethics, Philosophy, Macroeconomics, and Austerity
Political Geography:
Europe

8337. The Eurozone crisis: A debt shortage as the final cause

Author:
Andrea Terzi
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a different interpretation of the Eurozone crisis, seeing as its “final” cause European policies which have forced private savings down too low. Neither fiscal profligacy nor capital flows are the “final” cause of the Eurozone political and institutional failure that thwarts the growth of output and jobs. The sovereign debt crisis and the capital flight of 2010-12 were triggered by the vulnerable position of creditconstrained local governments in a monetary union and of a fragmented banking system with no credible deposit insurance. If member countries were to comply from now on with present fiscal and macroeconomic rules, real growth and job creation would not be restored. The final cause of economic drag in the Eurozone must be searched for within those same rules. The paper first offers a critical review of the notion of savings in orthodox theory as the source of funds available for investment. It finds that in a monetary economy, financial saving can be stored only in the form of a financial claim and requires an act that reflects on others. This means that an act of financial saving requires funding and must be associated with a corresponding act of another unit issuing debt. Savings do not fund. They need to be funded. The paper then elaborates on a simple (“T-shirt”) model of private job creation in a monetary economy, where this is a function of the actual and the intended stock of gross private savings. When savings are in excess of the intended amount, private spenders create jobs, and when savings are short of the intended amount, private spenders destroy jobs. Assuming intended savings as a given, and because the ultimate source of savings is debt, then any policy that inhibits the formation of debt also inhibits the formation of financial savings and jobs. If debt (private, public, or foreign) is the final fuel for spending, then Eurozone rules that put a cap on public debt inhibit one major source of savings. Differences in economic units’ financial balances are the ordinary condition of a monetary economy, and policy should be aimed at supporting those differences that best work towards policy goals, not forcing a reduction of such differences by treating them as “imbalances”. Current fiscal rules leave the Eurozone with two fragile and risky alternatives: building up more private debt or counting on a permanently high flow of net exports.
Topic:
Debt, European Union, Finance, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:
Europe

8338. A New Rational Expectations Hypothesis: What Can Economists Really Know About the Future?

Author:
Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
John Muth proposed the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH) to represent how the market (an aggregate of its participants) understands and forecasts outcomes. REH imposes internal consistency between the market’s forecasts and “the relevant economic theory” (Muth 1961, p. 316). In implementing REH, economists have relied on a class of models that rest on a key premise: an economist can ignore the importance of quantitative changes in the economy’s structure that he himself could not specify ex ante with a probabilistic rule. In the early 1970s, Robert Lucas pointed out that once such models are upheld as “the relevant economic theory,” it follows on purely logical grounds that REH models represent rational forecasting and its implications for market outcomes. There is ample evidence that quantitative structural change is an important driver of outcomes in real-world markets, most notably those for assets. The evidence also shows that this change often is triggered by historical events that are not exact repetitions of similar events in the past, for example, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair or company CEO. The timing of these events may be unknown, and their quantitative impact on the economy’s structure depends on the extent of their novelty and the particular historical context in which they occur. As such, no one can fully anticipate — even in probabilistic terms — the structural change triggered by such events.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Microeconomics, and Behavior
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8339. Input Diffusion and the Evolution of Production Network

Author:
Vasco Carvalho and Nico Voigtlander
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The adoption and diffusion of inputs in the production network is at the heart of technological progress. What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted by innovators? We examine the evolution of input linkages from a network perspective, starting from a stylized model of network formation. The adoption and diffusion of inputs in the production network is at the heart of technological progress. What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted by innovators? We examine the evolution of input linkages from a network perspective, starting from a stylized model of network formation. Producers direct their search for new inputs along vertical linkages, screening the network neighborhood of existing suppliers to identify potentially useful inputs. A subset of these is then adopted, following a tradeoff between the benefits from input variety and the costs of customizing new inputs. Guided by this framework, we document a novel stylized fact at both the sector and the firm level: producers are more likely to adopt inputs that are already used – directly or indirectly – by their current suppliers. In particular, using disaggregated input-output data, we show that initial network proximity of a sector in 1967 significantly increases the likelihood of adoption throughout the subsequent four decades. A one-standard deviation decrease in network distance is associated with an increase in the adoption probability by one third to one half. Similarly, U.S. firms are significantly more likely to develop new input linkages among their suppliers’ network neighborhood. Our results imply that the existing production network plays a crucial role in the diffusion of inputs and the evolution of technology.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Microeconomics, and Emerging Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8340. Laid Low: The IMF, The Eurozone and the First Rescue of Greece

Author:
Paul Blustein
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
As Greece descended into a financial maelstrom in the spring of 2010, a small group of staffers at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held top-secret talks with officials from the German and French finance ministries to discuss the idea of restructuring Greece’s debt. Many independent analysts believed a restructuring was inevitable because the country’s debt burden appeared unsustainable. But instead, the “Troika” — the tripartite group of lenders that included the IMF, the European Commission and European Central Bank — attempted to resolve the crisis by giving Athens bailout loans of unprecedented magnitude, piling debt atop debt. The idea considered in those secret talks would come to fruition only much later, in March 2012, when Greece received the largest debt relief in history. In the meantime, the rescue effort would go terribly awry, with consequences that continue to reverberate today as the euro area struggles with weak growth and a rekindled crisis in Greece. This paper tells the story of the first Greek rescue, focusing on the role played by the IMF. A detailed look back at this drama elucidates significant concerns about the Fund’s governance and its management of future crises. The Fund has come under attack for yielding to the clout of European policy makers and lending its credibility to a rescue that some of its senior staffers viewed with grave misgivings. The result, critics lament, tarnished the Fund’s reputation for technocratic judgment, rendering it less effective at promoting international stability. The 2010 rescue enabled Greece to avoid default at that point, which might well have sparked a global conflagration akin to the 2008 bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. European banks holding Greek bonds continued receiving payments of interest and principal for quite a long time thereafter, from the money lent by the Troika. But the interests of the Greek people were arguably sacrificed, and among economists there is widespread agreement that the country’s debt should have been restructured much sooner. In addition to shedding new light on what happened, this chronicle of events highlights the importance of the IMF’s acceptance, as a condition of its participation in the rescue, of a “junior partner” role in the Troika. This step is judged in the concluding section as being particularly ill-boding for the IMF’s ability to manage future crises, and policy recommendations are offered for alleviating the harm.
Topic:
Debt, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Fiscal Policy, Eurozone, and IMF
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

8341. Discrimination, Social Identity, and Coordination: An Experiment

Author:
Vessela Daskalova
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper presents an experiment investigating the effect of social identity on hiring decisions. The question is whether people discriminate between own and other group candidate This paper presents an experiment investigating the effect of social identity on hiring decisions. The question is whether people discriminate between own and other group candidates. Key features of the experiment are: First, to consider whether they do so in individual, as well as in joint decisions; Second, to document whether the identity of the co‐decision maker matters in joint decisions. Substantial discrimination occurs in both individual and joint decision‐making situations. In joint decisions, decision makers discriminate when deciding with someone from their own group, but not when deciding with someone from the other group.
Topic:
Economics, Race, Employment, Inequality, Discrimination, Job Creation, Social Order, and Identity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8342. AUra's Openings

Author:
Anna Tsing
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
AURA: Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene
Abstract:
This opening essay has two purposes: first, to offer a small introduction to the papers by Lien, Swanson and myself that follow; and, second, to introduce Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene (AURA) as a program for studying human-disturbed landscapes. I am in debt to Lien and Swanson for showing me catachresis as a feature of Anthropocene research. Catachresis helps me as I grope for language to describe AURA as an impossible program: a program dedicated to confusing disciplinary boundaries and to describing the challenges of life within the ruins created by modernization’s vast “improvements.” Following their guidance, I allow salmon to lead the way, saving AURA and landlocked landscapes for the sections that come after. Consider Swanson’s description of the strange Hokkaido device called an “Indian water wheel.” Hokkaido fisheries expert Ito Kazutaka visited Oregon’s Columbia River in 1886 and observed water wheels used to capture salmon; when he returned home, he combined the American technologies he noted with a Honshu-style (i.e., central Japanese rather than Hokkaido-based) fishing weir to create what he called the Indian water wheel. And what was “Indian” about this hybrid? Ito meant Native American, unselfconsciously commemorating the indigenous people whose access to salmon was interrupted by frontier-conquest technologies such as the water wheel. Certainly, “Indian” is catachresis. It usefully makes us pause. Japanese salmon are enacted in historically shifting hybrids of U.S. and Japanese frontier technologies recalled through the indigenous displacement they have in common. (In this regard, it seems useful to note that the water wheel was eventually outlawed in Oregon because it also killed off too many salmon.) Inappropriate language appropriately startles us. Connection, comparison, and displacement are wound together in forging modes of being both human and salmon; this is the condition of our times.
Topic:
Environment, Water, Fishing, and Anthropocene
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway

8343. Wreckage and Recovery: Exploring the Nature of Nature

Author:
AURA: Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
AURA: Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene
Abstract:
These papers formed part of the December 2013 workshop, “Wreckage and Recovery: Living with Change.” The workshop, held in Oslo, was a collaborative effort between the University of Oslo’s program in Technology, Information, and Knowledge (TIK), its Anthropos and the Material program, and Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene (AURA). The call for papers targeted Nordic anthropologists and science studies scholars and was composed by Tina Talleraas, Sylvia Lysgård, and their associates at TIK. By pairing “wreckage” with “recovery,” the workshop set terms that stymied radical declarations of environmental disaster. Still, I’ll admit that I was surprised that among the ten papers presented, not one described “wreckage.” A majority of the papers were ethnographic and historical accounts of efforts at “recovery,” and, in general, the recovery turned out to be at least as problematic as the wreckage it aimed to address. A few papers described resource use and extraction, but they showed negotiation and mitigation, rather than ruin. To the extent this consensus suggests a “comfort zone” for anthropology and STS, I find it cause for concern. Is wreckage off limits? I come back to this question at the end of this introduction. For the moment, my job is to discuss what we offer, not what we miss. The four papers chosen for this working paper highlight the strengths in the workshop as a whole: these are sophisticated analyses of how “nature” comes into being. Rather than setting up a passive backdrop for human activity, the workshop papers described everyday practices, mobilizations, and contests through which natural objects emerge, at least tentatively, within world-making projects.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Disasters, and Nature
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8344. Examining Evidence of Feminization of Poverty in Botswana

Author:
Khaufelo Lekobane and Keneilwe S. Mooketsane
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Poverty in Botswana is more pronounced in female-headed households (FHHs) especially those residing in rural areas where employment opportunities are limited. Similarly, the proportion of the FHHs to the total poor increased between 2002/03 and 2009/10. However, no study has so far analyzed whether feminization of poverty has occurred. This paper therefore, examines feminization of poverty in Botswana using the 2009/10 Botswana Core Welfare Indicator Survey and the 2002/03 Household Income and Expenditure Survey datasets. The results indicate no evidence of feminization of poverty (at both national and regional levels). However, the results reveal evidence of feminization of poverty amongst the married couples, the widowed, the divorced, the unemployed, those working in own farms and the self-employed. Therefore, public policy should focus on gender sensitive poverty alleviation strategies, with specific focus on the vulnerable FHHs, especially the divorced/separated and the widowed, in order to fully address the feminization of poverty amongst these groups.
Topic:
Poverty, Women, Economic Development, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

8345. Manufacturing Extremism: Political Consequences of Profit-Seeking Media

Author:
Siddhartha Bandyopadhyay, Kalyan Chatterjee, and Jaideep Roy
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We analyze the consequences of a monopolistic, non-partisan, profit-maximizing media on policy divergence. The media undertakes costly coverage that may reveal the quality of an office-seeking political challenger only if quality-conscious voters pay an access fee. Voters are ideologically homogenous and the incumbent politician is a populist with known quality. We show that while media absence implies a populist challenger, media presence yields platform extremism: it creates demand for information about quality and provides incentives to the media to invest in coverage that are exploited by high-quality challengers to signal strength. Keywords: Unobserved quality, Political challenger, Demand for electoral news, Media coverage, Platform extremism.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Media, and Political Extremism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8346. Below the Threshold: The Law Governing the Use of Force Against Non-State Actors in the Absence of a Non-International Armed Conflict

Author:
Daniel Hessel, Julia Shu, and Sarah Weiner
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
Boko Haram attacks civilians in Nigeria. The Islamic State launches attacks in Paris. Terrorists take hostages at a hotel in Mali. Mexican drug gangs threaten government officials and civilians. Houthi rebels seek to take control of the government in Yemen—and succeed. States increasingly face security threats from non-state actors, which have led states and observers to ask what states can do in response. What legal framework should apply? What constraints do states face? When can states resort to the use of military force to address threats posed to them by non-state actors, either on their own territory or on the territory of another state? The answer to these questions turns on whether the conflict in question rises to the level of a non-international armed conflict (NIAC). Based on the drafting history of international humanitarian law (IHL) governing NIACs, international jurisprudence, recent state practice, and academic commentary, this paper concludes that a NIAC does not exist unless the conflict passes an intensity threshold. In other words, the intensity of the conflict distinguishes generalized violence involving a non-state actor from a NIAC. Once the existence of a NIAC is established, states participating in it will be governed by relevant IHL.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Military Intervention, Conflict, and International Humanitarian Law (IHL)
Political Geography:
Nigeria and Global Focus

8347. Common Article 1 and Duty to "Ensure Respect"

Author:
Zachary Manfredi
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
This paper investigates whether the “to ensure respect” clause of Common Article 1 of the 1949 Geneva Conventions creates third state obligations. Third state obligations could impose both negative and positive duties on states to ensure that other states and some non-state actors comply with the Conventions. This issue has gained salience in light of the imminent publication of new set of commentaries on the Conventions by the International Committee for the Red Cross. The new commentaries will likely suggest that third state obligations under Common Article 1 are robust. This paper assesses the anticipated ICRC position in light of both the drafting history of Common Article 1 and subsequent interpretations by major international tribunals and states. It concludes that Common Article 1 provides for some third state obligations, but that their scope and content remains underspecified and highly contested.
Topic:
International Law, Non State Actors, State, International Humanitarian Law (IHL), Geneva Convention, and ICRC
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8348. The Applicability of International and Domestic Immigration Law to Relocated Guantanamo Detainees

Author:
Sarah Weiner
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
The physical relocation of detainees from Guantanamo to the United States would not meaningfully alter U.S. obligations under domestic immigration law or international law concerning refoulement. Domestic immigration law would not affect U.S. authority to bring aliens into the United States and to detain those aliens under the laws of war. Detainees would not enter the United States as immigrants, but rather would remain legally “at the border” during their detention. If a detainee secures his release from law-of-war detention, then the United States would be prohibited from transferring the former detainee to a country where there are substantial grounds for believing that he would be in danger of being subjected to torture. This obligation applies equally to detainees held at Guantanamo and in the United States. If the United States could not find a suitable country to accept the former detainee, then the United States may have the authority to hold the alien indefinitely in immigration detention, provided that his custody meets statutory requirements. This authority is constitutionally untested and potentially inconsistent with obligations under international law, but these concerns would apply equally to both Guantanamo- and U.S.-located former detainees.
Topic:
International Law, Immigration, Law, Guantanamo Bay, and Detainees
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8349. China’s Military Developments and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Project 2049 Institute
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In 2015, the Project 2049 Institute launched a program to focus on trends in China’s military advancements and how the U.S. and Japan can coordinate closely to maintain the peace and stability that has anchored the Asia-Pacific region’s economic dynamism and growth over the past 60 years. The discussions drew upon perspectives from U.S. and Japanese experts who work in a variety of government and non-governmental positions. This paper serves as a capstone for the various discussions held over the course of the program in both Washington, D.C. and San Diego.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Military Affairs, Alliance, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, and United States of America

8350. Chinese Activities in the South China Sea: Implications for the American Pivot to Asia

Author:
Kelsey Broderick
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the background of the South China Sea dispute and the extent to which the American rebalance has influenced China’s actions in the Sea. Following an assessment of the legal definitions found in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and a look at China’s military developments, the paper concludes with a discussion on how the rebalance has failed to prevent China from unilaterally changing the status quo in the South China Sea and looks at ways the rebalance can become more effective in the future.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Military Affairs, and Law of the Sea
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, United States of America, and South China Sea

8351. Rebuilding Deterrence: Post-2015 Defense Guidelines Challenges Facing the U.S.-Japan Alliance

Author:
Sugio Takahashi
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
On 27 April 2015, Japan and the U.S. concluded the new Guidelines for the Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation. This paper will explore the challenges facing the alliance after the revision of the Defense Guidelines. It will examine the evolution of Japanese thought on deterrence as outlined in the 2010 and 2013 National Defense Program Guidelines. It will also assess the strategic implications of China’s military modernization. This paper will conclude by offering possible policy solutions to the challenges facing the U.S.-Japan alliance in maintaining deterrence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8352. TPP From Taiwan’s Vantage Point: Political, Trade, and Strategic Considerations

Author:
Sara Yi-ying Lin Lin
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Established in 2008, The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has been closely followed by the major trading nations in the Asia-Pacific. Taiwan, or the Republic of China (ROC), and other non-members have been observing the developments in the negotiation process of this “21st Century Agreement” and preparing their respective country’s strategies and policies in response to the agreement. As a member of the Asia-Pacific region, it is critical for Taiwan to join the TPP in the near future.
Topic:
Alliance, Trans-Pacific Partnership, Trade, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Taiwan and Asia

8353. The PLA General Staff Department Third Department Second Bureau: An Organizational Overview of Unit 61398

Author:
Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In May 2014, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) announced indictments against five Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers on charges of cyber espionage directed against U.S. firms. According to the indictments, the five officers were assigned to the Third Office of the PLA General Staff Department (GSD) Technical Reconnaissance Department (alternatively known as the Third Department) Second Bureau. While assigned personnel may well engage in cyber espionage, a survey of Second Bureau infrastructure indicates a much broader communications intelligence mission.
Topic:
Intelligence, Cybersecurity, and Espionage
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

8354. Extending Domestic Governance Over the Seas: China’s State Oceanic Administration

Author:
Chisako T. Masuo
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
In 1982, General Liu Huaqing of China proposed the strategy of ‘offshore defense’ and drew a line through the Kurile Islands, Japan and the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, the Philippines, Borneo, and Natuna Besar. He set the year 2000 as the goal for establishing Chinese control inside this ‘First Island Chain.’ China has been trying to expand its area of actual control by extending domestic governance over the seas. Over the last decade, the State Oceanic Administration (SOA) under the State Council has assumed more responsibility in the oceanic administration and developed a clearer division of labor within PLAN.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Governance, Geopolitics, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Taiwan, Asia, Philippines, and Borneo

8355. News shocks in the data: Olympic Games and their macroeconomic effects – Reply

Author:
Viktoria Langer, Wolfgang Maennig, and Felix J. Richter
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Recent analyses relate increases in the growth rate of countries to anticipation effects caused by bidding for the Olympic Games, so called news shocks. We argue that these findings should be interpreted cautiously. First, these analyses may suffer from an omitted variable bias because they neglect key determinants of economic growth. Second, these analyses compare the bidders for the Olympic Games to all other countries in the world, which constitutes a comparison between groups that show large differences in their structural characteristics. We show that including established determinants of economic growth and comparing the bidders to a suitable control group may lead to a complete disappearance of the anticipated economic effects of Olympic Games.
Topic:
Economics and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8356. Who Wins Olympic Bids?

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig and Christopher Vierhaus
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
The prospect of hosting the Olympic Games is attractive to many cities around the world. This article examines 147 variables’ potential to discriminate successful from unsuccessful Olympic bids. Our stepwise, rank-ordered logistic regression model includes 10 determinants supporting the contention that economic, political and sports/Olympic factors are important for winning the host city election. IOC members favor cities if more than 2/3 of the population support the bid, but disfavor bidding cities of fewer than 2.5 million inhabitants and bids lacking a sufficient number of existing stadiums. Hosts are characterized by larger markets and higher medium-term growth economies. Olympic bids that follow a political liberalization are rewarded with additional votes. Moreover, successful bids are more experienced at hosting and have no dispute with the International Olympic Committee (IOC). Finally, we observe “it is the country’s turn” election behavior – countries that have not hosted the Olympics for a long period are preferred.
Topic:
Elections, Sports, Olympics, and Bids
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8357. Ensuring good governance and preventing corruption in the planning of major sporting events – open issues

Author:
Wolfgang Maennig
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
International sports will have to strengthen their efforts to exclude persons with morals in conflict with their sports. IOC and FIFA should mirror their top ambitions in athletic and financial areas by similarly leading ambitions to serve human mankind more generally. To encounter critiques that the organizing of major sporting events are „elitist actions“ IOC and FIFA should declare ex-ante referenda as a precondition for bidding. In order to reduce the funds available for corruption, the role of public finance in major sporting events should be overthought. At least broadcasters under public law public should be excluded from the bidding for TV. FIFA and other sporting federations should make public their payments to member federations etc and the underlying decision criteria.
Topic:
Corruption, Governance, Sports, Referendum, FIFA, and Public Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8358. News shocks in the data: Olympic Games and their macroeconomic effects – Reply

Author:
Viktoria Langer, Wolfgang Maennig, and Felix J. Richter
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chair for Economic Policy, University of Hamburg
Abstract:
Recent analyses relate increases in the growth rate of countries to anticipation effects caused by bidding for the Olympic Games, so called news shocks. We argue that these findings should be interpreted cautiously. First, these analyses may suffer from an omitted variable bias because they neglect key determinants of economic growth. Second, these analyses compare the bidders for the Olympic Games to all other countries in the world, which constitutes a comparison between groups that show large differences in their structural characteristics. We show that including established determinants of economic growth and comparing the bidders to a suitable control group may lead to a complete disappearance of the anticipated economic effects of Olympic Games.
Topic:
GDP, Sports, Economic Growth, Olympics, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8359. Export Commodity Prices And Long-Run Growth Of Primary Commodities-Based African Economies

Author:
Solomon Abayomi Olakojo
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
There is a link between primary commodity export prices and economic performance. Many African economies are primary commodities export biased, often in few primary commodities. Previous studies focus on the impact of commodity prices on growth in Africa with little attention paid to different primary commodities and level of diversification in primary commodities export. This study, investigates the effect of primary commodity prices on the long-run growth of 24 primary commodities-based African economies; by commodity types and level of diversification in primary commodities exports.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Commodities, Diversification, and Exports
Political Geography:
Africa

8360. A Relationship and a Practice: On the French Sociology of Credit

Author:
Laure Lacan and Jeanne Lazarus
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
This paper aims to describe the social studies of credit developed in France over the past dozen years. We argue that this French sociology of credit, mostly centered on France, can be useful for researchers analyzing other countries, with other institutional particularities, because it proposes a specific method and a specific way to raise questions: credit is mostly understood as a result of social interactions embedded in organizational and legal structures. French researchers also deeply analyze the consequences of the organization of the credit market for inequalities, social stratification, and people’s life experiences. The first part of the paper focuses on works that have examined credit as a social test, looking at the institutional, technical, and social frameworks of money lending. Then, credit is understood as a sociological experiment: how is it integrated into household economies? How do people use forms of credit? Finally, the third part concentrates on credit failure, when a bank loan becomes a debt. This aspect is mostly framed in French sociology as “over-indebtedness,” which is an administrative and a social category. Throughout the paper, we address credit as both a relationship and a practice. This approach is heuristic, as we seek to demonstrate, because it enables us to show that credit is a social and political issue.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Sociology, Inequality, and Credit
Political Geography:
Europe and France

8361. Politics in the Interest of Capital: A Not-So-Organized Combat

Author:
Cornelia Woll
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The rise in inequality has been explained with reference to organized groups and the lobbying of the financial sector. This article argues that the image of politics as organized combat is contradicted by empirical evidence on lobbying in the United States, and does not travel well to Europe. The power of finance does not operate through organized political influence. Rather, politics in the interest of capital unfolds as a structural feature of advanced economies over time. Tellingly, at the height of the financial crisis, one of the most promising strategies of institutions seeking government support was not organizing for combat, but collective inaction. Our challenge, then, is to explain how the power of finance has built up and is playing out in creating inequality. A more structural, less agency-focused perspective highlights how the rise of finance has been supported by actors that few would accuse of being finance-friendly, such as the European center-left parties and consumers. Reconceptualizing the power of finance has important implications for political solutions to rising inequality.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Inequality, Finance, and Capital
Political Geography:
Europe

8362. Financialization Is Marketization! A Study on the Respective Impact of Various Dimensions of Financialization on the Increase in Global Inequality

Author:
Olivier Godechot
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
In this paper, we study the impact of financialization on the rise in inequality in 18 OECD countries from 1970 to 2011 and measure the respective roles of various forms of financialization: the growth of the financial sector; the growth of one of its subcomponents, financial markets; the financialization of non-financial firms; and the financialization of households. We test these impacts using cross-country panel regressions in OECD countries. As dependent measures we use Solt’s (2009) Gini index, the World Top Incomes Database, and OECD inter-decile inequality measures. We show first that the share of the finance sector within the GDP is a substantial driver of world inequality, explaining between 20 and 40 percent of its increase from 1980 to 2007. When we decompose this financial sector effect, we find that this evolution was mainly driven by the increase in the volume of stocks traded in national stock exchanges and by the volume of shares held as assets in banks’ balance sheets. By contrast, the financialization of non-financial firms and of households does not play a substantial role. Based on this inequality test, we therefore interpret financialization as being mainly a phenomenon of marketization, redefined as the growing amount of social energy devoted to the trade of financial instruments on financial markets.
Topic:
Economics, Income Inequality, Financialisation, OECD, and Marketization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8363. Report inquiring into the causes and consequences of Kosovo citizens’ involvement as foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq

Author:
Shpend Kursani
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This report also addressed the sources of extremism in Kosovo, as well as inszed the institutional approach in Kosovo in terms of combating extremism in Kosovo and were offered specific recommendations in order to address the phenomenon of extremism / radicalism in Kosovo. The report is based on dozens of interviews with all relevant stakeholders, state institutions, religious, including dozens of field visits to the persons directly involved in the conflict and their families, as well as various literature on the issue of extremism and other statistical information.
Topic:
Violent Extremism, Citizenship, Institutions, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Kosovo, Balkans, and Syria

8364. Trust in Political Institutions in Senegal: Why Did it Drop?

Author:
Ibrahima Sall
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The 2000 presidential elections were a turning point in the political trajectory of Senegal. After four decades of single-party and limited multi-party rule, the country’s first true political alternation handed power to Abdoulaye Wade and ushered Senegal into the ranks of stable democracies in Africa. President Wade won re-election, with a comfortable majority, in 2007. Just one year later, however, public opinion survey results showed that citizens’ trust in Senegal’s president, Parliament, and local government had dropped dramatically. While trust levels rebounded in later surveys, 2008 serves as a case study of key factors that can undermine public trust in political institutions – an element of crucial importance for the consolidation of democracy. Drawing on data from Afrobarometer surveys, this analysis examines whether trust in political institutions is related to government performance, the economy and lived poverty, perceived corruption, interpersonal trust, and exposure to the news media.
Topic:
Governance, Public Opinion, Leadership, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

8365. Addressing Africa's Youth Employment and Food Security Crisis: The Role of African Agriculture in Job Creation

Author:
Olusegun Obasanjo
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:
Despite the abundance of agricultural resources, sub-Saharan Africa remains the world’s most food insecure region. HE Olusegun Obasanjo’s view is that there are many critical factors responsible for food insecurity in this region. They include undeveloped land tenure systems, high bank loan rates, inadequate availability of agricultural special banks, poor access to market information and prices, an unreliable market for farm produce and inadequate road network, transport and storage infrastructures for farm produce. There is also a lack of capacity for cooperative and value addition to farm produce and poor capacity for and access to agricultural insurance services. In addition, poor capacity for labor and labor costing are also part of the problem. Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that can employ millions of young people and reduce youth unemployment and enhance food security on the continent. The challenges facing adult farmers are huge but not as large as the challenges that young people encounter when trying to engage in agriculture as a profession. Nevertheless, there is hope, and opportunities abound for young people to be successful in agriculture.
Topic:
Agriculture, Employment, Food Security, Youth, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Africa

8366. The Effect of Exposure to Political Institutions and Economic Events on Demand for Democracy in Africa

Author:
Jakson Alves de Aquino
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In a democratic political regime, politicians and ordinary citizens must accept elections as the legitimate means of choosing who will govern. Losers must patiently wait until the next election to have an opportunity to elect a leader according to their preferences, and winners must restrain themselves from changing the rules to increase their power. Political systems are considered consolidated democracies when elections are free and fair, alternations of power happen according to the results of elections and are accepted by all main contenders, and the general public sees the system as the best way of organizing the political life. The establishment and survival of democracy depend on both politicians and ordinary citizens being committed to it. Understanding why people have (or do not have) a favourable view of democracy, that is, why they demand democracy, is important to an evaluation of the prospects for democratic stability. Usually, national-level variables have been added to multi-level regression models of survey data. In this paper, I contribute to the investigation of why people demand democracy by adding to the usual explanations new individual-level variables related to individual exposure to political institutions and economic conditions. My two main questions are: Does exposure to democracy increase the legitimacy of democracy? Is people’s demand for democracy influenced by the past economic performance of their countries? People live in a constant process of socialization, learning from their individual experiences and from their social environments. People exposed for a longer time to democratic institutions learn how the system works, accept its procedures, and as a result demand democracy more than less exposed people.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Economic Growth, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa

8367. Does Clientelism help Tanzanian MPs Establish Long-Term Electoral Support?

Author:
Machiko Tsubura
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Tanzanian Members of Parliament (MPs) and political analysts describe the primary roles of MPs with a variety of phrases: benefactors, providers, executors, social workers, saviours, multi-faceted donors, even “walking ATMs". Indeed, in Tanzania, where a majority of citizens are poor and the government lacks resources and capacity to provide sufficient social services, MPs provide various kinds of financial and material assistance to their constituents to support their lives and cultivate their electoral support. This type of exchange builds clientelistic relationships between MPs and voters, which is common in developing countries. In Tanzania, clientelism in electoral politics was highly restricted during the one-party socialist period between the mid-1960s and the 1980s but became prominent following the transition to multiparty democracy in the early 1990s. In 2000, it was enhanced in part by the legalisation of election incentives known as takrima (meaning “hospitality”). The legalisation of takrima raised public expectations that MPs wouldsupply tangible goods and contributed to the expansion of clientelistic relationships between MPs and voters. After having been used widely in the elections of 2000 and 2005, takrima was banned in 2006, and it has been an illegal practice since then. Against this unique background, this paper uses Afrobarometer survey results to examine how election incentives and electoral clientelism affected public views on MPs in Tanzania after the prohibition of takrima in 2006. A central question is whether clientelism helps MPs gain long-term electoral support. To address this question, I employed an innovative approach by adding data on levels of electoral competitiveness and MPs’ engagement with parliamentary discussions to Afrobarometer data sets to create original variables. A regression analysis of these data demonstrates that Tanzanians who had been offered election incentives in the elections of 2010 and had clientelistic views on the roles of MPs were less likely to approve of the performance of MPs. This suggests that clientelism is not necessarily a sustainable tool for MPs to establish long-term electoral support in Tanzania.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Voting, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

8368. Who’s asking? Interviewer Coethnicity Effects in African Survey Data

Author:
Claire L. Adida, Karen E. Ferree, Daniel Posner, and Amanda Lea Robinson
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Face-to-face interviews constitute a social interaction between interviewer and respondent, yet research employing African survey data typically fails to account for the effect of shared ethnicity on survey responses. We find that respondents give systematically different answers to coethnic and non-coethnic interviewers across surveys in 14 African countries, but with significant variation in the degree of bias across question types and countries, with the largest effects for explicitly ethnic questions and in countries where ethnicity is salient. In South Africa, we show further variation across interviewer-respondent dyad type: Coracial effects are larger than coethnic effects – a pattern consistent with the salience of racial legacies in South Africa – and differences in the direction, size, and significance of these effects concord with dyad-specific social desirability. Our findings have practical implications for consumers of African survey data and underscore the context dependence of the social interaction that constitutes the survey experience.
Topic:
Race, Public Opinion, Ethnicity, Interview, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

8369. Political Risks Facing African Democracies: Evidence from Afrobarometer

Author:
Michael Bratton and E. Gyimah-Boadi
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Where are African countries headed politically? How resilient are Africa’s governments, regimes, and states? What are the characteristics of political risk? This paper is motivated by a desire to discover whether it is possible to identify early-warning indicators of risk to African political systems. We suggest that Afrobarometer survey data may be used to systematically track trends in mass political support – such as approval for incumbent governments, satisfaction with political regime performance, and the popular legitimacy of state institutions. Where trends in dimensions of popular disapproval turn sharply upward, we infer increasing political risk. The paper is anchored empirically with 15 years’ worth of public opinion data for selected African countries and offers interpretations of what these observations might mean. The analysis is both retrospective – connecting empirical trends to known episodes of instability in Mali, Kenya, and Zimbabwe – and prospective – raising red flags for countries like Ghana, among others, once considered stable but currently facing new political strains.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Public Opinion, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Africa

8370. Deliberate Disengagement: How Education Decreases Political Participation in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes

Author:
Kevin Croke, Guy Grossman, Horacio Larreguy, and John Marshall
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
A large literature examining advanced and consolidating democracies suggests that education increases political participation. However, in electoral authoritarian regimes, educated voters may instead deliberately disengage. If education increases critical capacities, political awareness, and support for democracy, educated citizens may believe that participation is futile or legitimates autocrats. We test this argument in Zimbabwe – a paradigmatic electoral authoritarian regime – by exploiting cross-cohort variation in access to education following a major educational reform. We find that education decreases political participation, substantially reducing the likelihood that better-educated citizens vote, contact politicians, or attend community meetings. Consistent with deliberate disengagement, education’s negative effect on participation dissipated following 2008’s more competitive election, which (temporarily) initiated unprecedented power sharing.
Topic:
Education, Politics, Governance, Authoritarianism, Protests, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa

8371. On the Primacy of Weak Public Service Provision in rural Africa: Malians Redefine ‘State Breakdown’ Amidst 2012 Political Crisis

Author:
Jaimie Bleck and Kristin Michelitch
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
In 2012, Mali faced a dual state breakdown disrupting nearly 20 years of democratization – a coup and a secessionist insurgency. This paper provides the perspectives of rural Malians living on the border of state- and rebel-controlled territory. Our main finding is that villagers defined “the crisis” as one of unmet need for public services and infrastructure. State breakdown matters less where the state is not present in the first place. Rather than the state, villagers were largely reliant on local traditional authorities. The salience of villagers’ concerns about public services and infrastructure, as well as general basic needs insecurity, are echoed in cross-national Afrobarometer data (2012-2013) on public service provision across rural and urban citizens. In nearly all sub-Saharan African countries, the urban-rural gap is large, absolute levels of rural provision are low, and countries are inconsistent in provision across indicators. We conclude by drawing implications of weak state public service and infrastructure provision for citizenship in rural areas.
Topic:
Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Social Services, Political Crisis, and Public Service
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

8372. The Face of African Infrastructure: Service Availability and Citizens’ Demands

Author:
Benjamin Leo, Robert Morello, and Vijaya Ramachandran
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
The need for infrastructure improvements is a top-tier economic, political, and social issue in nearly every African country. Although the academic and policy literature is extensive in terms of estimating the impact of infrastructure deficits on economic and social indicators, very few studies have examined citizen demands for infrastructure. In this paper, we draw upon survey data to move beyond top-line estimates of national infrastructure access rates toward a more nuanced understanding of service availability and citizen demands at the regional, national, and sub-national levels. We find a predictable pattern of infrastructure services across income levels – lower-income countries have fewer services. The survey data also allows us to observe the sequencing of infrastructure services. On the demand side, survey respondents are most concerned with jobs and income-related issues, as well as with the availability of infrastructure, specifically transportation and sanitation. These priorities transcend demographic factors, including gender and location (urban/rural).
Topic:
Infrastructure, Social Services, Public Service, and Social Spending
Political Geography:
Africa

8373. Do men and women have different policy preferences, and if so, why?

Author:
Jessica Gottileb, Guy Grossman, and Amanda Lea Robinson
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Gender quotas to increase women’s representation are often motivated by the assumption that men and women have different policy preferences. In Africa – where gender quotas have been particularly widespread – we find that gender differences in preferences are quite small on average, but vary significantly across both policy domains and countries. We propose a theoretical framework for differentiating policy domains where preference divergence indicates increased gender parity from those where it signifies growing inequality. We then demonstrate that favourable gender gaps increase with female labour-force participation, while unfavourable gaps are more likely where women are most vulnerable. We show that these gender gaps in preferences are related to gender gaps in both political participation and representation.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Representation, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa

8374. Are South Africa’s Youth Really a ‘Ticking Time Momb’?

Author:
Robert Mattes and Samantha Richmond
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This paper reviews longitudinal survey data on South Africa’s political culture produced by the Institute for Democracy in South Africa (1994-1998) and Afrobarometer (2000-2011) and finds that while there are real problems with democratic citizenship in South Africa, these problems are largely not peculiar to young people. Compared to other age cohorts, the youth (aged 18-25 years) of South Africa have the same conception of the role of citizen and are no more likely to endorse political violence or to hold negative views and intentions toward immigrants. They have slightly lower levels of cognitive engagement and cognitive sophistication than some other age cohorts and are less likely to engage in political processes. They also exhibit low levels of support for democracy – a problem they share with their elders.
Topic:
Immigration, Democracy, Citizenship, Youth, and Borders
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

8375. Enhancing Climate Change Resilience in Fragile States

Author:
Katharina Nett
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Climate change is increasingly perceived as a threat to human security and a challenge to the problem-solving capacity of states and societies, particularly in fragile states. While there is substantial literature on climate change adaptation in conflict-affected contexts, much less attention has been paid to how to enhance resilience in contexts of fragility and low state capacity. This paper argues that in order to effectively address the complex, in- tertwined risks resulting from the interplay of state fragility and climate change, a compre- hensive approach to resilience is needed that encompasses both climate change adapta- tion and state-building. An analysis of the climate change adaptation strategies and instru- ments of the UNFCCC and the EU shows that while there are some promising first ap- proaches, donors and international organisations working in the field of climate change adaptation need to build their adaptation strategies on a thorough understanding of the fragile context and take more action to adjust their policy instruments to the special needs of fragile states.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Environment, Governance, Fragile States, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8376. Building Inclusive Smallholder Agriculture Finance

Author:
Simon Striegel
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:
Despite the increasing liberalization and penetration of rural financial markets in the global South, small-scale agricultural producers’ scarce access to formal financial services still constitutes a fundamental roadblock to improving financial inclusion and, thus, rural livelihoods. High transaction costs combined with covariant risks, a lack of financial literacy and the prevalence of moral hazard in agicultural lending impair the profitability and, hence, the availability of smallholder agricultural finance. Based on the theoretical concept of New Institutional Economics and underpinned by empirical evidence from small-scale coffee producers and financial institutions in Tanzania, this paper identifies major challenges of smallholder finance in the country and possible pathways through which financial inclusion can be elevated. The assessment of Tanzania’s smallholder-based coffee sector and financial system reveals that while organizational development among small-scale producers is clearly insufficient, inclusive rural financial systems, above all, depend on cohesive, well-governed and - managed producer organizations which qualify and act as intermediation points between small-scale producers and financial institutions.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Finance, Rural, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

8377. Crisis? What Crisis? The World Bank and Housing Finance for the Poor

Author:
Elisa Van Waeyenberge
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
This paper provides a critical assessment of the Bank’s housing policies, against the backdrop of far- reaching transformations of the financial sector across the world and a persistently dire shelter situation in developing countries. It situates the Bank’s housing stance historically since its initial involvement in the sector in the early 1970s. This allows to shed light on systemic and analytical tendencies bearing on Bank housing policy with significant implications for the Bank’s current policy stance, including its response (or lack thereof) to the dramatic experience with housing finance laid bare through the global financial and economic crisis.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Poverty, World Bank, Finance, Housing, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8378. Program Learning Event on Violence against Children in and around Schools in East Africa

Author:
Elevate Children Funders Group (ECFG)
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Elevate Children Funders Group
Abstract:
This is a report of the three-day PLE on VACiS held in Kampala, Uganda. The PLE was organized by the ECFG, with the technical and administrative support of Development Links Consult (DLC), a social development consulting firm incorporated in Uganda. The event, held between 14th and 16th July 2015 at Hotel African in Kampala, Uganda attracted 77 participants, representing practitioners, advocates, researchers and government representatives in the field of violence against children from Uganda,Tanzania, Kenya, South Africa, Germany, the United Kingdom and United States of America . With the theme of developing a common learning agenda on preventing and responding to VACiS, the event was convened to achieve three specific sub-goals, namely: 1. To enable partners to learn promising practices on preventing VACiS. 2. To share research, information and resources with partners to link theory and research to practice. 3. To connect partners for networking and learning; and discuss potential joint action (e.g. joint program development, coordination and advocacy work) on the issue.
Topic:
Education, Children, and Violence
Political Geography:
Africa and East Africa

8379. Three Myths Behind the Case for Grexit: A Destructive Analysis

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
Greece faces a stark choice: either to compromise on the terms laid down by its international creditors and thereby remain in the eurozone or reject any compromise on the terms and exit the eurozone. The Syriza government was elected in January, 2015, on the double promise that it would tear up the deeply unpopular memorandum imposed by the Troika while at the same keeping the euro. It was a promise that it could not keep. After several months of tough negotiations it has become clear that Greece's creditors, led by the German government, have no intention of accepting a renegotiated deal that substantively lightens Greece's debt burden and thus the need for the type of harsh austerity measures contained in the memorandum.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

8380. The Offshore-Intensity Ratio: Identifying the Strongest Magnets for Foreign Capital

Author:
Jan Fichtner
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This paper presents the Offshore-Intensity Ratio ʹ a simple and straightforward way to identify which countries and jurisdictions could be seen as offshore financial centres(OFCs). By setting the aggregated amount of external capital booked in a jurisdiction in relation to the size of its domestic economy, we get a ratio that expresses the strength with which the particular jurisdiction has acted as a magnet for foreign capital. Sixteen jurisdictions are identified as probable OFCs, including the Cayman Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Bermuda and Luxembourg, but also Ireland and the Netherlands. A novel visualization shows the role of the largest offshore centres in contemporary global finance.
Topic:
Finance, Capital, Financial Systems, and Tax Havens
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8381. Why the UK's Fiscal Charter is Doomed to Fail: An Analysis of Austerity Economics during the First and the Second Cameron Governments

Author:
Richard Murphy and Ronen Palan
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The economic rationale for austerity policies harks back to a highly controversial proposals that originated in the 1990s known as 'expansionary fiscal contraction.' This paper explores these ideas relating to austerity and suggests that matters have not worked out as George Osborne expected. Furthermore, since the broad assumptions made by HM Treasury and the OBR remain the same in 2015 as they were in 2010, the paper presents an argument why austerity plans for the period 2016-2020 are also unlikely to succeed.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Austerity, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

8382. Fostering Pro-social Behaviour Online: „Nudges‟ in the Right Direction

Author:
Nadica Pavlovska
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The internet penetration and the consequent creation of hyper-connected reality has exposed the Singaporean population to much more diversity of thoughts and influences. In this environment, efforts to maintain social cohesion and multicultural tolerance among the population is now even more challenging. In light of this, this paper attempts to explore the means available to maintain pro-social behaviour and build a culture of respect online. By assessing the current measures undertaken in Singapore, this paper argues that the majority of the strategies are “mind changing” such as education and awareness raising campaigns. However, by taking into account the specificity of the internet interaction, it is suggested that these strategies could be further enhanced by adopting a “context changing” approach in the online interaction by using specific behaviour influencers such as social norms, priming and messenger approach.
Topic:
Internet, Digital Culture, and Social Cohesion
Political Geography:
Asia and Singapore

8383. Soccer: Moulding the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
James M Dorsey
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Nowhere in the world has sports in general and soccer in particular played such a key role in the development of a region than in the Middle East and North Africa. Yet, the nexus of sports, politics and society is one area that Middle East studies with few exceptions have ignored. Similarly, sports studies have focused on all parts of the world with one exception: the Middle East and North Africa. Nonetheless, sports and particularly soccer has been in various parts of the Middle East key to nation formation, nation building, regime formation, regime survival and the struggles for human, gender and labour rights. This working paper is an attempt to fill a gap in the literature and contribute to the development of theory on the role of sports in the Middle East and North Africa.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Nationalism, Labor Issues, Sports, and State Building
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

8384. Brazil-China Relations

Author:
Loro Horta
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Chinese leaders consider relations with Brazil to be of utmost importance. Brazil‘s vast reserves of natural resources, its massive agricultural sector and market potential for Chinese exports make Brazil one of China‘s top foreign policy priorities. Within the past decade, Sino-Brazilian ties have soared with trade reaching US$22 billion in 2007 and Brazil becoming China‘s main South American trading partner. In early 2009, China even surpassed the United States as Brazil's largest trading partner with two-way trade reaching a staggering US$43 billion. Both countries have cooperated in various sensitive technology sectors such as satellite and military technologies, and are expanding these exchanges. Today, Brazil accounts for 40 per cent of China‘s total agricultural exports and is therefore extremely important for food security of the Asian giant as well. Many observers have argued that China‘s growing relations with Brazil is likely to lead to an alliance between the so-called "third world giants" to balance American and Western hegemony. While there are indeed several complementarities between the two emerging economies and while both countries share some common political beliefs regarding the international system, many issues of contention will remain and perhaps be aggravated as Sino-Brazilian ties develop. Alliances have very different meanings in the post-Cold War context, and they no longer imply rigid military and economic blocks confronting one another. The concept of ―strategic partnership‖ is a better framework to look into new power relations in the 21st century. Despite some tensions in Sino-Brazilian relations, both nations can be expected to grow closer to one another. The positive aspects of their relationship far outweigh the problems and tensions inherent in most relations among major powers. The Sino-Brazilian strategic partnership is likely to produce significant changes in the balance of power in the Americas. China's growing ties to Brazil, however, will not necessarily lead to a dramatic loss of influence for the United States. While China has gained an impressive economic presence in Brazil — and in the region — economic influence does not always translate into political and strategic dominance. The economic power of the United States remains the dominant force and its century old relationship with Brazil continues to have a strong appeal among the Brazilians. Arguably, China's growing influence in the Americas, to an extent, is a result of previous U.S. administrations' neglect of the region's needs and it remains to be seen what effect would a more attentive U.S. administration will have in facing China's growing influence in Latin America.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States, China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

8385. China-Myanmar Relations Since Naypyidaw’s Political Transition: How Beijing can Balance Short-term Interests and Long-term Values

Author:
Chenyang Li and James Char
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
In discussions on Myanmar's political reforms since the installation of a civilianised military regime in 2011, most analysts have focused on the bedevilment of bilateral ties between Beijing and Naypyidaw. To be sure, China has since become more attuned to the concerns of non-state actors with the opening up of Myanmar's political space as well as recalibrated its strategies in the face of renewed diplomatic competition from other countries in vying for the affections of the Burmese leadership. In acknowledging the corrections China‘s Myanmar policy has undergone, this article argues that Beijing‘s factoring in of Burmese national interests and development needs can help enhance its prospects. While a return to the previous robust bilateral relationship may appear inconceivable in the near future, this article concludes that there is still hope for Beijing in overcoming the challenges posed by Naypyidaw's political transition should it be able to keep up with the latter's evolution over the longer term.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Diplomacy, and Non State Actors
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Myanmar

8386. Economic Policy Reforms in South Asia: An Overview and the Remaining Agenda

Author:
Pradumna B. Rana and Wai-Mun Chia
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
In the past few years, the pace of economic growth in South Asia has slowed considerably for two reasons: unfavourable global economic environment and the slowing pace of economic reforms that once were the key drivers of the region’s dynamic economic performance and resilience. This paper focuses on the latter and following Rana (2011) and Rana and Hamid (1995), it argues that South Asian countries have not sequenced their reforms properly. The first round of reforms in South Asia that began in the 1980s and the early 1990s focused on macroeconomic reforms — monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate management, as well as reducing rigid government controls — which led to private sector driven economic growth. These should have been followed by the more microeconomic reforms — sectoral and the so-called “second generation” reforms to strengthen governance and institutions — to sustain the higher growth levels. But they were not and reforms ran out of steam because of, among others, lack of law and order, and corruption in the public sector. This paper finds a significant “governance gap” in South Asia that refers to how South Asia lags behind East Asia in terms of various governance indicators and how within South Asia some countries are ahead of others. The paper argues that in order to revive economic growth, South Asian countries must implement microeconomic reforms: it identifies the remaining policy agenda for each South Asian country. However, implementation of microeconomic reforms poses a difficult challenge as they require a wider consensus and political support and have a longer term focus. The recent election of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in India with a strong mandate for economic reform provides an environment of “cautious optimism” for all of South Asia.
Topic:
Governance, Reform, Global Political Economy, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

8387. Kashmir and the India-Pakistan Composite Dialogue Process

Author:
Sumona Dasgupta
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores how the contentious issue of Kashmir has been framed in the India- Pakistan composite dialogue which aims at building a peace process between the two nuclear armed countries locked in an adversarial relationship for over six decades. Through an item by item analysis of the eight heads of the composite dialogue, it demonstrates that barring one item, the script of Kashmir — its land, resources, livelihoods and security — runs through all of them in some form or another. Yet this top- down composite dialogue conducted by the political leadership of India and Pakistan has yielded no tangible results in resolving any of the issues around Kashmir. It is time for a new imaginative peace-building paradigm to be given a chance where the people of Kashmir, in all their diversity, are recognised as legitimate stakeholders in an inclusive dialogic process. The paper suggests that intra-Kashmir people-to-people dialogues, both within Indian-administered Kashmir and between Indian and Pakistan administered Kashmir, be allowed to acquire a meaning and momentum of their own and advocates consultative mechanisms to allow community voices and narratives to percolate into and inform the official Indo-Pakistan composite dialogue. A more people centric peace process in Kashmir is an idea whose time has come.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Pakistan, India, Asia, and Kashmir

8388. Soccer vs. Jihad: A Draw

Author:
James M Dorsey
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
There is much that militant Islamists and jihadists agree on, but when it comes to sports in general and soccer in particular sharp divisions emerge. Men like the late Osama bin Laden, Hamas Gaza leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah stand on one side of the ideological and theological divide opposite groups like the Taliban, Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen, Boko Haram, and the jihadists who took control of northern Mali in 2012. The Islamic State, the jihadist group that controls swaths of Syria and Iraq, belongs ideologically and theologically to the camp that views soccer as an infidel invention designed to distract the faithful from their religious obligations but opportunistically employs football in its sophisticated public relations and public diplomacy endeavour. Bin Laden, Haniyeh and Nasrallah employ soccer as a recruitment and bonding tool based on the belief of Salafi and mainstream Islamic scholars who argue that Prophet Muhammad advocated physical exercise to maintain a healthy body. However, the more militant students of Islam seek to re- write the rules of the game to Islamicise it, if not outright ban the sport. The practicality and usefulness of soccer is evident in the fact that perpetrators of attacks, like those by Hamas on civilian targets in Israel in 2003 and the 2004 Madrid train bombings, bonded by playing soccer together.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Sports, Islamic State, and Militant Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

8389. Indonesia’s Defence Diplomacy: Harnessing the Hedging Strategy against Regional Uncertainties

Author:
Iis Gindarsah
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Indonesia has been increasingly susceptible to recent geopolitical developments. Along with the rapid pace of regional arms modernisation and unresolved territorial disputes, it begins to ponder the impact of emerging great power rivalry to the country’s strategic interests. However, rather than pursuing a robust military build-up, Indonesian policymakers asserts that diplomacy is the country’s first line of defence. This paper argues that Indonesia’s defence diplomacy serves two agenda of hedging strategy — strategic engagement and military modernisation. This way, Indonesian defence and security officials seek to moderate the impact of geopolitical changes whilst maintaining the country’s defensive ability against regional uncertainties.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Asia

8390. In Defence of Freedom of Speech and against the Publication of Certain Cartoons

Author:
Paul Hedges
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores the concept of freedom of speech, as it relates to religion, focusing on recent European examples of tensions that surface secular mores and Islamic sensibilities, primarily the Charlie Hebdo incident. This paper argues that while offence to others does not breech free speech, when considering cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad, we cannot ignore the geopolitical context. Such images may perpetuate stereotypes and be perceived as part of a neo-colonial project to denigrate minorities and the Muslim world. In particular, Islamophobia and the post-colonial context provide a context wherein the Islamic “Other” within Western societies is marginalised and often experiences oppression. Therefore, what appears to be legitimate freedom of speech may actually be a discourse of suppression. The paper also considers possible objections around individual autonomy and the power of religion, and suggests principles when considering the limits of freedom of speech.
Topic:
Human Rights, Post Colonialism, Religion, and Islamophobia
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8391. To Shoot or not to Shoot? Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern Militaries Respond Differently

Author:
James M Dorsey and Teresita Cruz-del Rosario
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
An analysis of the Middle Eastern and North African militaries has produced a laundry list of literature, much of which was either valid for a specific post-World War II period or highlighted one of more aspects of military interest in the status quo or attitudes towards political change. Leaving aside the geopolitical differences between Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, a comparison of the transition in both regions brings into focus the building blocks that are needed for an armed force to embrace change. Southeast Asian nations succeeded whereas the countries in Middle East and North Africa, with the exception of Tunisia, have failed for several reasons.
Topic:
Politics, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Transition
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Asia, North Africa, and Southeast Asia

8392. Whose Side Are You Om? Identifying The Distributive Preferences of Local Politicians in India

Author:
Mark Schneider and Neelanjan Sircar
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
The literature on decentralized public programs suggests that errors in the targeting of anti-poverty programs are rooted in the capture of these programs by local elites or local politicians. Consistent with the literature on moral economy in political science and experimental economics, we argue that voters in contexts of rural poverty prefer local leaders who target subsistence benefits to the poor. In a high- information village context, where voters and leaders know each other, we argue that local elections lead to the selection of local leaders with pro-poor preferences over the distribution of these benefits. We show this with a novel theory of local politicians’ social preferences. We test our theory with unique data from a behavioral measure, conducted in the context of a lottery with a modest cash prize in rural India, that captures a scenario in which local leaders have full discretion and anonymity over allocation among members of their rural communities. We analyze our data using a novel estimation strategy that takes the characteristics of the pool of potential beneficiaries into account in decisions over allocation under a budget constraint. We find that local leaders have strong preferences for targeting the poor, and particularly those they believe supported them politically in the past. This article suggests that free and fair elections at the local level can powerfully encourage pro-poor targeting even in contexts of weak institutions and pervasive poverty. It also makes a fundamental contribution to research on distributive politics by challenging research in this area to demonstrate the effect of electoral strategies and other distortions on allocation relative to local leaders’ baseline distributive preferences.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Rural, Local, and Decentralization
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

8393. A Tale of Two Villages: Kinship Netwoks and Political Preference Change in Rural India

Author:
Neelanjan Sircar
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
This paper develops a theory on how voters form and change political preferences in democratic de- veloping world contexts. In the developing world, where state institutions are often weak, voters tend to be more focused on the competence and capacity of parties and candidates to deliver benefits. Such information may be difficult to ascertain, so voters must glean information from how candidates con- duct themselves during the electoral campaign. Voters use kinship networks to develop more accurate preferences by collectively reasoning through newly available information on candidates. In order to demonstrate these claims, this study analyzes data collected on political preferences and kinship net- works in two villages just before and after the campaign period during the 2011 Assembly election in the Indian state of West Bengal. The paper finds very strong kinship network effects on changes in issue preferences and vote choice over the course of the campaign and explains the results through qualitative work and a series of network autoregressive statistical models. In sum, this paper demonstrates how vot- ers develop independent preferences and implement political change, even in low information contexts with weak human capital.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, and Networks
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, Asia, and West Bengal

8394. Reclaiming the Grassland for the Cheetah: Science and Nature Conservation in India

Author:
Ghazala Shahabuddin
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:
The role of scientists in influencing the aims and priorities of biological conservation in developing countries has been a topic of debate and needs elucidation. The Asiatic cheetah reintroduction plan in India sparked much discussion on the pros and cons of attempting to revive the population of a large carnivore that had been missing from the landscape for over half a century. This paper traces the history of cheetah reintroduction with the aim of exploring the relationships amongst the constituencies of scientists, politicians, local communities and the bureaucracy. This paper suggests that the decision to reintroduce the Asiatic cheetah in India was motivated by political symbolism and had little grounding in scientific rigour. Science was used as a legitimizing tool for a politically influenced conservation goal which had little space for socio-economic constraints or academic rigour. While there are many strands of wildlife conservation emerging in India, the dominant paradigm upheld by biologists continues to be negligent of both scientific and social concerns.
Topic:
Nationalism, Science and Technology, Conservation, and Nature
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

8395. An Awkward Tango: Pairing Traditional Military Planning to Design and Why It Currently Fails to Work

Author:
Ben Zweibelson
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Over the past decade, traditional military planning methodology and doctrine has gained an unlikely dance partner-the ambiguous, conceptual, and controversial process called ‘design.’ Although I will expand in this article on what exactly traditional military planning’ constitutes as a methodology, readers familiar with the debate over conceptual and detailed planning will recognize traditional military planning as the linear, analytic process grounded in metrics, categories, and objective scientific tenets. Many call this ‘detailed planning’ to refer synonymously to traditional military problem-solving, reflecting a military institutional practice of developing specific, sequential, and highly scientific-based plans that are quantifiable (analytical, objective) according to an accepted language, format, and professional education.4Unlike detailed planning, design as an emerging practice evokes eclectic combinations of philosophy, social sciences, complexity theory, and often improvised, unscripted approaches in a tailored or “one of a kind” practice. Ultimately, design becomes something beyond military planning entirely, thus we should avoid an “either or” sort of debate with design and detailed planning. Although this article employs the metaphor of awkward dancing partners, the metaphor is incomplete in that design may “dance” with detailed planning, while also able to depart the dance floor and do things that detailed planning is simply incapable of. However, for military professionals facing complex problems, we might continue the awkward tango metaphor for this article in that a military might employ both design and detailed planning in many conflict environments.Both design and detailed planning are elements of sensemaking, where for military applications we derive the notion of ‘planning’ and ‘knowing’ in a broad sense as an integral part of comprehending reality. Planning is subordinate to ‘knowing’ in that the detailed blueprints for constructing a tank are subordinate to the conceptual design of“how does one construct an armored vehicle to dominate specific terrain”? Planning is subordinate to design, with detailed planning further subordinate to various types of planning, with ill-structured conflict environments requiring militaries to whirl various dancing partners of design and planning across confusing and dynamic dance floors. Yet as our associated western military doctrine, military education, and practice in conflict environments demonstrates repeatedly, we are unable to get these dance partners to work together as a team, or move to the music for purposes of effectively creating and directing useful action for a military organization.5Institutionally and as a practicing community of professionals, the Western military has little trouble agreeing upon the general principles of traditional planning.6Yet we collectively remain fiercely divided, confused, and often resistant to design in any form, whether a rival methodology, complimentary, or even a subset of traditional planning.7‘Military Design’ comes in as many shades and patterns as service camouflage patterns now, and just as uniform differences symbolize organizational relevance and identity, so do the various service-centric design versions available for sensemaking and subsequent planning applications. Design has become so much of a stumbling block that the U.S. Army has devoted multiple research projects on design integration using the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, and in 2011 revised Army design doctrine with a name change and “rebranding” complete with academic realignments.8While the U.S. Army has cycled through several incarnations of design in the past decade, American Joint doctrine (which strongly influences other western military doctrines) has separated design from ‘operational design’ while casting both within traditional planning, resulting in a rather befuddled operational force. The U.S. military Joint Staff’s Planner’s Handbook for Operational Design from 2011 offers the following explanation: In general, the terms [design and operational design] have been related but not identical. The focus of discussion and writing on design during the past three years has been on the critical and creative thinking and learning required to understand complex operational environments and ill-defined problems facing the commander. Such understanding should facilitate early development of a broad operational approach that can guide the more detailed planning process. Operational design is a construct that joint doctrine has used since 2002 to encompass various elements of operational design (previously called facets of operational art) that planners have applied to develop a framework for a campaign or major operation... In essence, the above explanation conveys that joint doctrine’s operational design has embraced and subsumed design’s philosophy and general methodology.” 9 Thus, United States military organizations at the Joint level apply some aspects of the service-specific “Army Design Methodology” into joint doctrine where “operational design” functions more as a reverse-engineering planning project for campaign construction.10 This confuses military professionals because our organizations are not only mixing terms and concepts, but engaging far too much in methodological discussions without getting above it all and into the challenging abstract levels this article will offer. Although “design” is intended in the various U.S. Army doctrinal incarnations to be an iterative and adaptive sensemaking process for focusing critical and creative thinking on complex military problems, the American Army struggles to make sense of why military organizations have so many problems grasping what design is, and how it integrates into traditional military decision making. 11 With all of these different interpretations of how to make sense of complex military situations with ‘design’, is it any wonder why our militaries remains unable, or perhaps at a deeper institutional level, unwilling to integrate design effectively with traditional planning? We need to explore why traditional military planning and design theory remain awkward dance partners, and where we might try to nudge the larger Western military institution towards in the future. The difference goes beyond superficial arguments on language, doctrine, or conflict environments- it has to do with how the military prefers to make sense of the world beyond methodologies entirely.
Topic:
Military Strategy and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
United States

8396. Strategic Bombing if Possible, but Possibly not Strategic Bombing: an examination of ends, ways, and means and the use of strategic airpower during the Great War

Author:
Dr. Randall Wakelam
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
This paper is an offshoot of research conducted in preparation for the University of Calgary History conference of 2014 focussing on new perspectives of the Great War. My primary intent in that research was to explore the notion that air services were, using the recent educational concept of the Learning Organization, in fact precursors of this concept within a military context. One of the conclusions I came to is that this learning was not just happening within the air services but took place even at the national, or grand strategic, level where decisions had to be made both about how to use this new means of warfare and about the allocation of resources while continuing to support the needs of the army and navy. The former had to do with strategic bombing of enemy targets and the balance of this paper looks at how the concepts and practice of strategic bombing evolved in France, Germany and Britain.
Topic:
Military Strategy, World War I, and Air Force
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, France, and Germany

8397. Russian Foreign Policy under Dmitry Medvedev’s Presidency (2008-2012)

Author:
Richard Rousseau
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Following the inauguration of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in May 2008, the Russian political scene was characterized by a new structure: the country was governed by a bicephalous system (which reflected the two-headed eagle of the national flag). Medvedev became President and Vladimir Putin assumed the position of Prime Minister. In this ostensibly tandem structure, the Chief Executive was subordinated to the President as was the case even before Russia first emerged as an independent country in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Such a dual power sharing worked quite well during Medvedev’s term and with no serious fissures that could bring about competing circles of power around each of the heads of state. This was true even though the personalities of the two leaders were very different. Their priorities, however, seemed different, at least formally. During his presidency (2000-2008), Putin made every effort to recover Russia’s super power status and international respect. He did not hesitate to use the privileged position of Russia – main energy supplier to Europe, a permanent member of the Security Council of the United Nations, a continuing influence over the post-Soviet space – to achieve his ambitious goal. For his part, Medvedev preferred to use foreign policy as an instrument to advance the process of economic modernization, while keeping Russian national interests in mind. When compared to Russia’s main partners and competitors, Medvedev was very much aware of the systemic disadvantages his country faced. These disadvantages, according to him, were factors that considerably weakened Russia as a major world power and economic player. The foundation of Putin’s domestic and foreign policy was the concept of “sovereign democracy,” which argues that Russia must follow its own democratization process. There was no need to emulate and copy Western models. In this view, if Russia’s political system had serious flaws, the same could be said of the political systems of Western countries. The West was no longer seen as being in a position to give lessons to Russia. Consequently, Russian foreign policy at the time gradually abandoned or even opposed some of the positions taken by Western countries. Such a tendency began with Putin’s speech at the annual Wehrkunde conference held in Munich in January 2007. Within a year serious tensions arose between Russia and their Western allies, for instance with the August 2008 armed conflict between Georgia and Russia. The origin of this conflict was the longstanding secession attempts by South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two territories recognized as being part of Georgia. Especially glaring were Russia’s disagreements and confrontations with the U.S. over such issues as NATO expansion, European-based missile defense systems and U.S. attempts to expand its influence into what Russia considers its “near abroad”, the post-Soviet space. Under Putin, Russia once again seemed to be a rival of the West, not merely on an ideological basis as during the Cold War, but because of its own strong nationalistic tendencies.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Soviet Union

8398. Dysfunctional Institutions, Social Trust, and Governance in Areas of Limited Statehood

Author:
Thomas Risse and Tanja A. Börzel
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
Areas of limited statehood where the state is absent or dysfunctional are rarely ungoverned or ungovernable spaces. The provision of rules and regulations as well as of public goods and services – governance – does not necessarily depend on the existence of functioning state institutions. How can this be explained? This article makes two claims. First, we identify functional equivalents to state institutions that fail to govern hierarchically. Second, we focus on informal institutions based on social trust that are endogenous to areas of limited statehood. Personalized social trust among community members enables actors to overcome collective action problems, enhancing the legitimacy of governance actors. The main challenge in areas of limited statehood, which are often characterized by social heterogeneity and deep social and cultural cleavages (particularly in post-conflict societies), is to move from personalized to generalized trust in “imagined communities” despite dysfunctional state institutions. We argue that generalized trust in areas of limited statehood crucially depends on inclusive social identities as an enabling condition for effective and legitimate governance.
Topic:
Governance, Community, Statehood, and Social Identities
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8399. Meta-Governance of Partnerships for Sustainable Development - Actors’ Perspectives on How the UN Could Improve Partnerships’ Governance Services in Areas of Limited Statehood

Author:
Marianne Beisheim and Nils Simon
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Collaborative Research Center (SFB) 700
Abstract:
In the context of negotiations on the Post-2015 or 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the process of formulating Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the United Nations (UN) (again) assigns an important role to multi-stakeholder partnerships. But how do actors view these partnerships more than ten years after the UN’s engagement with them? Our previous research found that transnational multi-stakeholder partnerships for sustainable development are neither as successful as their proponents claim nor as ineffective as their critics argue (Beisheim/Liese 2014). In light of these findings, we ask whether relevant actors argue that lessons learned with regard to partnerships’ success conditions should be translated into rules and standards that guide the operations of existing and the development of new partnerships. This kind of meta-governance of partnerships could be exerted by state or non-state actors at the national or international level. Moreover, we distinguish between two broad functions of meta-governance: enabling and ensuring. In this paper, we present first insights into actors’ views on the meta-governance of partnerships. We focus on the actors in the UN-context, where reforms of the framework for partnerships are under debate.
Topic:
United Nations, Governance, Reform, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8400. State Practice on Sovereign Immunity in Employment Disputes Involving Embassy and Consular Staff

Author:
Julia Brower
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Legal Challenges, Yale Law School
Abstract:
This report identifies and analyzes foreign case law and statutes on sovereign immunity in employment disputes brought by dismissed embassy and consular staff from twenty-seven countries and two international courts. State practice remains quite diverse, and it is not possible to identify one clear, specific majority test for whether foreign States are immune in such disputes. However, several recent trends exist, with state practice in Europe in particular starting to coalesce around a common approach. The findings of this report must be considered with the limitations of the research in mind. The vast majority of case law surveyed in this report is from Europe and English-speaking countries. Only a handful of translated decisions or statutes from Latin America, Africa, and Asia could be found, and significantly, this report does not include any decisions from China or Brazil.
Topic:
Law, Protected People, Diplomatic Immunity, and Sovereign Immunity
Political Geography:
Global Focus