Search

Begin New Search Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 10 Years

401. Rethinking Industrial Policy for Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Michal Hrubý
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is increasingly important in the EU’s manufacturing landscape. The region’s export-oriented economies became an integral part of it through foreign direct investment—supported primarily by EU funding, including Cohesion Policy programs for regional and industrial development, and by national state spending. With its competitiveness at stake, the EU now focuses on industrial policy for cutting-edge technologies with high capital intensity. Many of its new regulations loosen state aid rules to allow generous support by governments to attract investors, which poses a problem for member states with less fiscal room to do so, including the CEE countries. This report discusses the opportunities and challenges for CEE countries to build manufacturing with potential to grow and to increase domestic value-added. It examines two case studies in the region: batteries and semiconductors, and their position in the value chains in Czechia and Hungary. Hungary has become one of the EU’s leading battery industry hubs and plays a key role in the drive toward self- sufficiency in this field. Its success came principally through government spending on investment promotion. Key issues have arisen regarding the environmental sustainability of new investments, the decision to attract cheap foreign labor without any appropriate long-term labor policy, and the lack of knowledge spillover from multinational companies to small and medium domestic ones to improve their value-chain position. New large investments announced by Chinese companies also raise geopolitical and security issues. With its broad innovation and R&D strategy and record low unemployment, Czechia did not make attracting large investments a priority before the COVID-19 pandemic. This has changed and its semiconductor industry is well- placed to draw in new investments in the micro- and nanoelectronics value chain. Czechia has started to support the industry through state aid for a handful of domestic and foreign companies, due to its strategic importance, its high value-added in production output, and the opportunity for stimulating R&D and high-skill employment. These case studies reveal key takeaways for Central and Eastern Europe. First, industrial policy based on state aid in small open economies are costly and will not generate long-term benefits if it is oriented solely at production tasks as in the past. Investment must bring innovation and R&D. Second, CEE countries should make financing innovation and R&D the priority, not subsidizing new manufacturing projects. They should rationalize their policy objectives and update and stick to their national strategies. Third, tight budgets and financial consolidation put pressure on selecting projects for state aid. Governments should not provide this aid without a solid cost-benefit analysis of the investments. Fourth, the CEE countries should consolidate the too broad innovation priorities within their national strategies and analyze their long-term growth potential. Fifth, industrial policy must be accompanied by appropriate labor and education policies to support the green and digital transition.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

402. Democratic Russian Civil Society Outside Russia? A Window of Opportunity for Support

Author:
Nicolas Bouchet
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Russia has large sources of wealth and military power and is controlled by an autocratic, kleptocratic regime willing to devote these to aggression toward its neighbors, most violently in Ukraine. It is in the interest of Europe and the United States to support Russians who can help the country become more peaceful and democratic, alongside anti-regime measures. Repression has made supporting democratic actors in Russia extremely difficult but not impossible. That goal must now be complemented. Around 1 million people have left Russia since it invaded Ukraine in 2022. This opens a window of opportunity for unimpeded access to a large number of Russians to aid the spread of democratic ideas; raising the prospect of a democratic civil society developing outside the country. Europe and the United States need a strategy to support the democratic potential of the recent emigrants. Their largest concentrations are in the South Caucasus, Central Asia, the Western Balkans as well as Israel, Türkiye, the EU and the United States. The bulk of the emigrants are young adults who are richer, more educated, and more politically interested or active than the average citizen in Russia. For most, the motivations for leaving mixed political, economic, and lifestyle factors, and for many also unwillingness to be drafted into the military. The majority have democratic, anti-regime, and antiwar views. The emigrants include long-standing and newly civically and politically active individuals. A large share continue engagement abroad in diverse organizations and initiatives. Their activities focus on rebuilding civil society organizations (CSOs) and media abroad, supporting democratic actors and spreading independent information in Russia, and antiwar initiatives. They provide help to new emigrants and aim to build up their communities. These activities are carried out from one or more host countries, building transnational networks. There are new grassroots actions and initiatives by emigrants who had less or no direct experience of activism in Russia. Emigrant groups mostly operate through horizontal, fluid networks. Many of these are small and informal, but there are larger, more structured ones. Emigrant communities also offer a space for critical debate about the need for democratic change and the link between this and Russia’s colonial/imperial heritage and aggression. The recent emigrants’ activities face many challenges, including those in operating networks reliant on online resources; in connecting digital and non-digital activism; and in planning beyond the short term without sufficient resources. They are hampered by reliance on small (often part-time) core teams and volunteers. Many activists experience financial precarity, employment insecurity, and burnout. Security is a major concern due to the risk of infiltration, destabilization, and cyber and physical attacks by Russia’s security apparatus. The situation for emigrants has become more restrictive or less safe in some host countries. Individuals and organizations that oppose the Russian regime are also affected by restrictive international measures against it, such as ones against money laundering and the monetization of online content, or the denial of access to financial, professional, and commercial services. As Russians have realized that emigration will be for a longer term, the phase of settling in a host country became more prominent than the earlier exit phase. For many, this includes the need to move from the first host country, with those more politically active more likely to look for one with a safer, more enabling environment. This will largely mean seeking to move to an EU or other Western country. The non-EU countries easiest for Russians to access are also the ones where their prospects are more uncertain, whereas the EU countries are harder to access but offer more certain prospects. Russia in the 1990s showed how an unpredicted democratic opening can fail to lead to lasting or deep change. Today, alongside aiding political and nongovernmental actors, democracy-support providers should also try to help Russian society evolve in a democratic direction. The new emigrant activities are seeds for a democratic civil society abroad that is closely connected to, and supportive of, the one in Russia. Three principles should underpin a strategy to support the democratic potential of the recent Russian emigration: shifting emphasis to the settling phase of emigration, prioritizing connectivity within the emigration, and helping weave a civil society abroad. To foster the development of a democratic civil society among Russian emigrants, assistance musttarget the building of a wider community that can be more effective and serve as a model in Russia. For this, the landscape of Russians outside Russia can be seen as four concentric circles, based on their degree of direct political activity: the political opposition in exile; the civil society sector of democracy, human rights, and media organizations; the community of emigrants since 2022, and in particular the new grassroots actors and initiatives emerging within it; and the older, multigeneration Russian diaspora. A democracy support strategy for Russian emigrants should not be open-ended but time-bound, with a pragmatic approach in an uncertain environment. It can be assessed in 2030, when President Vladimir Putin’s current term as president is due to end, which could be a time of political turbulence. The strategy can be initially implemented within the next 12–24 months, with annual review of support offered to civil society, especially at the grassroots, with the potential to grow and to reach out to the apolitical emigrants. Support should consist of mostly small, short-term assistance to actors and initiatives that would have until 2030 to show that they have impact and longer-term potential. It is crucial to support the widest range of diverse, dispersed actors of different sizes so that they can keep operating. The focus should not be only on formal organizations but also on more bounded initiatives and projects. Part of the assistance should focus on enabling politically and civically active emigrants to connect physically and virtually across locations, and to focus on flexible networking suited to their mobility challenges. Funders need to think widely in terms of locations and formats for delivering support. Using different, sometimes unconventional, ways of engaging emigrant actors is a necessity. Support should not rely only on usual formats, not least since new ones for activities are emerging from within the emigrant landscape. Such support is also key for encouraging and amplifying the critical thinking in the emigrant landscape as well as connections to new antiwar and anti-imperialist initiatives—a prerequisite for any democratic progress in Russia. Connections are what make a society more than a collection of groups. For the development of a democratic civil society outside Russia, support should be directed not only within the individual circles of the emigration but also at connections between them. The primary focus should be on relations between the second (established CSOs) and third (new grassroots actors) circles to prevent the diverse civically and politically active emigrants and groups being in silos. Contacts with recent emigrants could also eventually encourage changes in attitudes within the older diaspora toward the Russian regime or democratic civic engagement in general.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Refugees, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

403. Next-Generation Perspectives on Taiwan: Insights from the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program

Author:
Bonnie S. Glaser, Joshua Stone, Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, and Francesca Ghiretti
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The papers in this compendium were written by 11 members of the 2024 Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) delegation: Alicja Bachulska, Viking Bohman, Francesca Ghiretti, Heather Hwalek, Leland Lazarus, Lauren Racusin, Friso Stevens, Joshua Stone, Brian Volsky, Theresa Winter, Adrienne Wu. Transatlantic attention to Taiwan has surged in recent years for several reasons. First, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has led to increased concern in the United States and Europe that Beijing’s growing military capabilities and declining confidence in its ability to achieve peaceful reunification will soon lead the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to attempt a takeover of Taiwan by force. The cost of such a war would carry a price tag of around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP, according to Bloomberg Economics, far higher than the economic impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine. The devastating impact of a Taiwan Strait conflict has provided a wake-up call for leaders in Europe who now echo the Biden administration’s warnings to PRC leader Xi Jinping to refrain from using violence to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, Taiwan is now a regular agenda item in the US-EU Consultations on the Indo-Pacific and the US-EU Dialogue on China. Second, intensifying US-China strategic competition has increasingly focused on technology with chips at the center. Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors and more than 90% of the most advanced ones. A single company, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC), manufactures most of those chips. Recognition of Taiwan’s dominant role in the semiconductor supply chain has provided another reason to bolster deterrence. It has also sparked interest in “friendshoring” and “onshoring” semiconductor manufacturing. TSMC plans to start production at its first fab in Arizona in 2025 and will break ground on another in Dresden at the end of 2024 with an estimated completion date of 2027. Recognizing the rising geopolitical risks and their own strategic dependencies, the United States and the EU have made building resilient supply chains a priority, especially in semiconductors. In its 2021 Indo-Pacific Strategy, Brussels explicitly committed the EU to engaging with Taiwan in creating resilient supply chains. Third, rising concern in the United States and Europe about election interference and disinformation have sparked interest in learning from Taiwan’s experience in combatting such threats. In the run-up to the January 13, 2024, presidential and legislative elections, PRC attempts to interfere in Taiwan’s politics surged to unprecedented levels through economic coercion, direct political meddling, displays of military force, and manipulation of social media. As the United States and many European countries prepare for their own national elections this year, they are engaging with experts from Taiwan to better understand PRC tactics and the tools that Taiwan successfully employed to counter PRC interference. Fourth, the United States and Europe increasingly recognize that Taiwan’s vibrant and successful democracy is under threat from an authoritarian regime. Taiwan has received high marks for protecting political rights and holding free and fair elections. Taiwan’s democratic achievements are even more impressive when set against the backdrop of a deterioration in freedom worldwide. Like other industrialized democracies, Taiwan faces a multitude of challenges that are especially difficult to address in the face of PRC efforts that prevent Taiwan’s government and its people from interacting with the world. Taiwan’s exclusion from international organizations also hampers the world’s ability to develop effective solutions to myriad problems. The Taiwan-US Policy Program (TUPP) was launched in 2017 to encourage young professionals from the United States to include Taiwan in their research and help Taipei expand its global networks. In 2022, TUPP was expanded to include young professionals from Europe in support of GMF’s mission of promoting transatlantic cooperation. TUPP enables future leaders to acquire a deeper understanding of Taiwan and its relations with the United States through meetings with officials and experts in Washington, DC, followed by a visit to Taiwan to gain first-hand exposure to its politics, culture, and history. Experiencing Taiwan influences how these future leaders approach their work and their writing. It impacts their worldview by imbuing them with an appreciation for Taiwan’s history and commitment to the principles of democracy and human rights that undergird the existing international order. It also reinforces the importance of maintaining robust bilateral relations and strengthening international support for maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The 2024 TUPP cohort traveled to Taiwan in February for an intense week of meetings and activities. Each participant gained insights into Taiwan and its role in their respective fields. This year’s delegation comprised five Americans and five Europeans. Over time, TUPP seeks to create a body of global experts with firsthand knowledge of Taiwan who support sustaining and expanding its international ties. I am grateful to the Henry Luce Foundation, the Global Taiwan Institute, and the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy for their support of this goal. The contributions here, written by the entire 2024 TUPP delegation, underscore the importance of deeper study and understanding of Taiwan. I sincerely hope that they stimulate continued transatlantic and global interest in Taiwan and its future.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Trade
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Poland, Germany, Latin America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

404. The End of Russia’s “Unipolar Moment” in the South Caucasus

Author:
Irakli Sirbiladze
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has exposed Russia’s weaknesses and ended its “unipolar moment” in the South Caucasus. This has affected the calculations of the three states in a region where Moscow traditionally had the upper hand over local and competing outside actors. Prior to the war, Russia had been able sustain its security, political, and economic leverage over Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, yet the extent of its influence varied over time and depending on the leadership in each country. Moscow was Armenia’s key ally, bringing the country into its security, political, and economic space. Russia also enjoyed close political and business ties with Azerbaijan, underpinned by shared authoritarianism. Baku joined the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) but stayed out of Russian-led security institutions. Moscow’s role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict gave it particular security leverage over Baku and Yerevan. Russia’s leverage with Georgia has fluctuated. The country joined the CIS but not other Russian-led organizations. Political ties started to erode in the early 2000s, especially following the 2003 Rose Revolution. The 2008 war weakened Russia’s leverage as Georgia left the CIS and cut diplomatic ties. Economic relations have improved since 2012 even as Tbilisi continued to seek EU and NATO membership. The war in Ukraine has weakened Russia’s sway over the region, accelerating what had started with the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War as Moscow sided with Azerbaijan rather than its treaty ally Armenia. This led to growing difference with Yerevan and convergence with Baku. Armenia is now looking for alternative security partners and engaging with the EU and the United States. Azerbaijan is taking advantage of Moscow’s focus on Ukraine to fully achieve its objectives, including the early departure of Russian peacekeepers from its territory. Georgia receiving EU candidate status could have reduced Russia’s leverage but its ruling party’s antidemocratic and anti-West turn keeps favoring Moscow’s influence. Western economic sanctions have further undermined Russia’s hold over the South Caucasus states: it needs them more to connect and trade with Asian markets. The new geo-economic reality favors the three countries and Moscow can now hardly use economic tools against them. Russia’s waning influence has made it one among other players in the South Caucasus. It can no longer ignore the role of China, the EU, Iran, Türkiye, and the United States there. The emerging geopolitical and geo-economic plurality in the region has made Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia more daring and transactional in their engagement with all outside powers. This has implications for the three countries in terms of peace and security, democracy, and geopolitical orientation. Azerbaijan is likely to remain undemocratic and to keep engaging with all powers transactionally to maintain national and regime security. Armenia finds itself in a complicated state of insecurity that affects democratization and makes multi-alignment its default foreign policy orientation. Georgia, whose democratic decline is the result of its own politics, is likely to sustain its multi-aligned and transactional foreign policy posture if the current government stays in power, while an opposition victory in the coming elections might turn the country back to democracy and a West-oriented foreign policy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Democracy, Geopolitics, and Unipolarity
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, South Caucasus, and Black Sea

405. Disinformation in the City: Response Playbook

Author:
Jessica (Ika) Trijsburg and Paul Costello
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
As actors responsible for decisions and policies that shape people’s daily lives, and as those most aware of community fault lines that are fertile ground for disinformation, city officials are well positioned to respond. Yet, research, analysis, and policymaking related to disinformation have remained at the national and international levels. GMF, the Melbourne Centre for Cities, and other partners have developed a response playbook to help inform and guide city policies and practices to counter disinformation and ultimately to strengthen democracy. In cities, disinformation sometimes manifests itself in physical events, including protests and disruptions. It also has individual impacts for political, institutional, and community leaders and staff. Disinformation affects the functioning of city administrations and elected bodies, impacting governance and policymaking. It also impacts communities, reducing mutual trust and increasing division and polarization. Disinformation commonly exploits existing social fault lines and polarization. In cities, the fault lines targeted by disinformation center around First Nations, migrants, cultural diversity, gender and sexual diversity, health and wellbeing, sustainability and climate issues, and urban planning. Understanding how disinformation spreads, and how to respond effectively, is critical for city governments. Current knowledge, however, is focused mainly on the national and international realms and not readily accessible and translatable for urban governance needs. This is why GMF Cities, in response to needs expressed by many city governments, developed this playbook in collaboration with a core interdisciplinary research team from the Australian National University, Monash University, Deakin University, and Victoria University, led by the Melbourne Centre for Cities at the University of Melbourne. The playbook was developed with representatives from cities, media, the tech sector, civil society, and academia. The process began with an in-depth survey to understand the current experiences of participating cities and responses to disinformation they employed. The findings informed a series of workshops with 40 participants who together created the content of and recommendations in the playbook. The full draft was reviewed by the participants before it was submitted to other cities, city networks, disinformation experts, and other levels of government for pressure testing.
Topic:
Democracy, Cities, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

406. Protecting Undersea Infrastructure in the North American Arctic

Author:
Heather A Conley, Sophie Arts, Kristine Berzina, and Frida Rintakumpu
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
In response to recent incidents damaging undersea energy infrastructure and communication cables in the Baltic Sea and High North, NATO countries have intensified their focus on critical undersea infrastructure (CUI) protection on the national, bilateral, and multilateral levels. Allies in the North American Arctic can build on important NATO initiatives but, given distances and the unique operating environment in this theater, the responsibility for protecting CUI assets in territorial waters will fall primarily to the United States, Canada, and the Kingdom of Denmark. CUI in the North American Arctic is currently limited. But climate change, the green energy transition, and greater reliance on artificial intelligence (AI) will increase the demand and opportunity to expand communication cables and energy infrastructure in the region. At the same time, increased traffic and resource exploration heighten the vulnerability of these assets, especially to deliberate attack from Russia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Both powers rely on dual-use assets that increase plausible deniability, and they continue to develop undersea warfare capabilities. To enhance resilience and protect CUI in the North American Arctic, the United States and its NATO allies are strongly encouraged to: • urgently upgrade US as well as NATO allies’ situational awareness and presence in the air, space, and undersea domain, cooperating closely with the private sector • prioritize and upgrade the role of NATO’s Allied Maritime Command (MARCOM) to conduct CUI threat assessments and identify assets that are especially vulnerable due to their strategic importance, location, complicated ownership structure, or symbolic value • expand US and NATO response options to counter hybrid threats and deter CUI attacks; consider establishing an additional maritime high-readiness force • increase NATO’s presence to protect and defend nearby assets during and after Russian and PRC naval maneuvers • build on NATO’s Digital Oceans Initiative to enhance and integrate unmanned systems and AI information processing tools into exercises and operations • identify counterparts in other national governments to ensure quick and seamless information sharing following CUI incidents • deepen public-private cooperation as well as government oversight over privately owned CUI to incentivize the private sector’s CUI resilience (e.g. fortifying cables, integrating monitoring capabilities, and ensuring adequate repair capabilities) • clarify responsibilities of CUI protection and defense across the civil, military, and private sectors, including the transition of responsibilities from the Department of Homeland Security to the Department of Defense in crisis situations • train and exercise crisis decision-making processes with the involvement of all relevant actors (including the private sector and state and local authorities) on the national, bilateral (Canada and the Kingdom of Denmark), minilateral, and multilateral levels • clarify and enhance legal frameworks to respond to CUI incidents in territorial and international waters, and share best practices across all sectors • use pro-active strategic communication to outline legal and military authority in responding to CUI incidents, attributing attacks, and enhancing deterrence against future threats.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Infrastructure, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, North America, Arctic, United States of America, and Baltic Sea

407. Time Is Almost Up

Author:
Martin Quencez and Gesine Weber
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The transatlantic partnership has long neglected structural weaknesses. Unless corrected, they could soon doom it. Download PDF 2025 will open a new chapter for the transatlantic relationship. The outcome of the US presidential election will accelerate ongoing changes in the country’s approach to Europe, while a rapidly shifting security environment will compel the partners to reform their alliance. The next year presents an important opportunity to do this, especially as the terms of the European Commission and the US president coincidentally align. When Joe Biden was elected four years ago, many European leaders expressed the hope that, in the president’s words, “the US is back” in the transatlantic relationship. The change of administration in Washington could have constituted an opportunity for the transatlantic partners to “seize the Biden moment”, but critical reforms never took place. Instead, the Democrat’s election relieved many European governments, prompting a continued reliance on muddling through critical challenges rather than developing European responses to them. The US administration, for its part, did not sufficiently pressure Europeans to play a greater role in world affairs. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Europeans and the EU to respond with costly and unprecedented measures, but these policies remain to this day largely disconnected from a broader political discourse of the war as an “existential” threat to the future of the European project. Europe’s avoidance of such big-picture issues has negative implications for its ties to the United States. The current transatlantic relationship suffers from four major challenges that, unless tackled in the next four years, could lead, at best, to its dysfunction and, at worst, to its implosion. These challenges are: security-related structural problems, intra-alliance competition and policy toward China, a European gamble on time, and a widening power gap between the United States and Europe. Transatlantic Security Reform: Ukraine Has Muted The Debate The swift, coordinated, and strong reaction of the United States and Europe to the war in Ukraine is undoubtedly the most significant moment of transatlantic unity in recent years. US military and strategic leadership, and Biden’s personal involvement in overcoming Congressional resistance to supporting Ukraine, will constitute the cornerstones of his legacy in Europe. The continent has also done its part, providing significant military and humanitarian support—at times even surpassing that from the United States. All this has brought the transatlantic partners closer together while bolstering public approval of NATO. Sustaining unity on Ukraine, although an outstanding diplomatic and political success, has, however, overshadowed a more complex picture of the transatlantic relationship. The war’s outbreak put American security guarantees for Europe in the spotlight, but more contentious policy issues have been neglected. Prioritizing Ukraine over other aspects of the transatlantic relationship was justified, but it prevented the allies from preparing for potential future crises. This is unsustainable and dangerous. Persistent security-related structural problems may seem paradoxical. After all, 23 of the 32 NATO allies finally invested, as pledged a decade earlier, at least 2% of GDP in defense in 2024. The EU has also stepped up its efforts in this area. Nevertheless, two underlying problems fester. First, Europe’s chronic capability shortage means the United States still contributes more than 65% of the NATO allies’ total defense spending and 38% of their military personnel. NATO’s so-called European pillar remains underdeveloped, and Europe cannot defend itself on its own. Second, European and transatlantic security suffers from a lack of imagination. The Biden administration has demonstrated that it can defend the European security order, and Europeans have unquestionably overcome many political taboos to support Ukraine, but policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have been unable, or unwilling, to develop a vision for a needed new security order. A post-Cold War approach to alliance management has led the Biden administration and many European allies to preserve a form of status quo while the world undergoes considerable change. At the same time, there remains in certain political circles a desire to recreate the prewar relationship with Moscow, especially as a chronic lack of political leadership in key Western capitals impedes the development of an ambitious strategic agenda. Transatlantic leaders have repeatedly and rightly stated that Ukrainians will decide when they stop fighting, but this stance hides the lack of transatlantic consensus on a postwar European order.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Transatlantic Relations, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

408. TikTok Tactics: 2024 US Candidates Dance Around Security Risks

Author:
Lindsay Gorman, Caitlin Goldenberg, and Isabella Nieminen
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Despite TikTok’s ongoing national security risks, 2024 candidates in US House, Senate, gubernatorial, and secretary of state races continue to use the platform to reach voters. Since its emergence onto the social media scene in 2016, viral video app TikTok has exploded in popularity, dominating the screentime of a reported one billion monthly active users worldwide today. This year, the app’s user base has made it an all-but-unavoidable tool for US presidential and vice-presidential candidates, who have used TikTok to make their bids to voters. Yet researchers and lawmakers’ initial national security concerns surrounding the potential for malign influence due to TikTok’s ownership ties to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have only become louder as additional voices in Washington and beyond have joined the chorus. To address these concerns, in 2024 Congress passed and President Biden signed House Resolution (HR) 7521 to force TikTok to divest from its PRC-based parent company ByteDance or face a ban in the United States. This was mere months before the president’s campaign joined the platform itself. As election day fast approaches, a wide swath of federal and state candidates are seeking to leverage TikTok’s popularity with GenZ users. In October 2022, the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD) at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) produced a report documenting how US midterm candidates employed TikTok to reach voters and boost campaign visibility. This year, ahead of the 2024 US general elections in November, ASD and the GMF Technology Program researched the question of whether TikTok use among US Senate, House, gubernatorial, and secretary of state candidates has increased, and how candidates have continued to harness TikTok in campaigns. After two years, Democrats still outweigh Republicans on TikTok use, TikTok’s sluggishness in verifying candidate accounts has worsened, and political TikTok styles are beginning to mature.
Topic:
National Security, Social Media, Domestic Policy, and TikTok
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

409. Pivotal Powers 2024: Innovative Engagement Strategies for Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Sharinee Jagtiani, Kristina Kausch, Garima Mohan, Martin Quencez, Rachel Tausendfreund, and Gesine Weber
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
States outside the transatlantic alliance have gained leverage in international affairs in recent years and, with that, the potential to significantly reshape the global order. Engagement with these "pivotal powers", which include Brazil, Indonesia, India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Türkiye, is of paramount importance for Europe and the United States. "Pivotal Powers 2024: Innovative Engagement Strategies for Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence" offers tactics for enhancing Western cooperation on global challenges with these countries. This report builds on GMF reports from 2012 and 2023.
Topic:
Security, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

410. Turkey’s Anti-PKK Operation and “Development Road” in Iraq Are Two Sides of the Same Coin

Author:
Idris Okuducu
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Turkey's intertwining of its mega project and its anti-PKK operation improves the chances of success for both elements. But this interconnection can be a double-edged sword—if one element fails, it may potentially hinder the success of the other. Turkey’s recently announced comprehensive military operation against the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)—which will be launched this summer, potentially in coordination with Baghdad—is not just about security. Ankara’s offensive will be part of a wider strategy, which heavily features the proposed “Development Road” connecting Turkey and Iraq, to strengthen economic and political relations with Iraq’s central government. These efforts will counter growing Iranian hegemony in the region, particularly in the face of the looming U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, but Turkey will likely need to secure Iranian aquiescence to the two plans in order for either to be successful.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Military Affairs, PKK, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

411. Coordination Framework Militias Pass New Anti-LGBTQ Legislation

Author:
Michael Knights and Amir al-Kaabi
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Although they avoided embarrassing Prime Minister Sudani during his recent Washington visit, they passed abhorrent new legislation as soon as he was back home. On April 27, Iraq’s parliament passed an amendment to the Anti-Prostitution Law that includes anti-LGBTQ provisions prohibiting “sexual deviation” and “changing a person's biological sex.” These trends fit into the accelerating pattern of persecution since the Sudani government was installed by the Shia militia-led Coordination Framework (CF) in October 2022. Although the parliament's decision was not purely a CF action, the lion’s share of its support came from CF and muqawama (resistance) partners, while the measure was boycotted by most Kurdish and Sunni politicians. Importantly, the idea of amending the law—whose title distracts from its primary focus on outlawing LGBTQ communities—was championed by CF factions such as the Badr Organization, Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), and the U.S.-designated terrorist movement Kataib Hezbollah via its parliamentary bloc the Hoquq Movement. The new amendment calls for punishing anyone who engages in homosexuality with a minimum jail sentence of ten years, and anyone who "promotes homosexuality" with a minimum sentence of seven years.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, LGBT+, and Legislation
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

412. Promoting E-Invoicing Interoperability in ASEAN: Overcoming Barriers to Trade Digitalisation

Author:
Mahirah Mahusin and Hilmy Prilliadi
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Electronic invoicing (e-invoicing) is a vital component of paperless trading, delivering substantial cost savings and efficiency gains for businesses. The ASEAN e-invoicing market has experienced notable growth, spurred by initiatives from tax authorities, public procurement agencies, and business digitalisation programmes. However, adoption across the region still faces significant challenges. To address these barriers, ASEAN has introduced initiatives to foster interoperability, develop common standards, and support regional integration. By prioritising standardisation, offering government support, and encouraging private sector adoption through financial incentives and capacity-building efforts, ASEAN can accelerate trade digitalisation and enhance economic integration across the region.
Topic:
Trade, ASEAN, Supply Chains, Digitalization, and Electronic Invoicing
Political Geography:
Asia

413. Securing Regional Solar Supply Chains: Determinants and Preparedness of the Northeastern Region of India and ASEAN

Author:
Prabir De, Komal Biswal, and Venkatachalam Anbumozhi
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Renewable energy contributes to the acceleration of the energy transition, supports global environmental mitigation, and helps meet sustainable development goals. Energy connectivity of India’s Northeastern Region (NER) with neighbouring countries particularly ASEAN assumes critical importance for accelerating economic integration. NER can play a three-dimensional role as power producer, exporter, and transit provider provided a quadrangular approach to build energy linkages and promote integration is consciously put in place. To understand whether the NER states are capable enough to take forward the solar supply chain development and bolster the ASEAN-India engagements in solar energy sector, this study has designed a state-level index of solar supply chain development by factoring in seven parameters, namely, (i) economic situations, (ii) environmental factors, (iii) spread of connectivity, (iv) financial enabling conditions, (v) mobility, (vi) human development, and (vi) social cohesion, which directly or indirectly influence the solar supply chain development in India. The results show that a clean and decent environment is must for development of solar supply chain. In addition, the study suggests that there is a need to improve the solar supply chain capability in the NER to enhance the economic growth. Leveraging policy support and reinvigorating existing institutions and creating new ones are imperatives for predicting the solar supply chain in the NER. This indexing may help track the trends, allowing for more informed decision-making in securing regional solar supply chain.
Topic:
Renewable Energy, ASEAN, Solar Power, Supply Chains, and Energy
Political Geography:
India and Asia

414. Urban Amenities and Trade Resilience During the Covid-19 Pandemic in Malaysia

Author:
Cassey Lee
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The main objective of this study is to empirically examine the role played by amenities in supporting growth and trade in Malaysia during the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery phases. The manufacturing sector has been an important factor in mitigating the negative impact of the pandemic. It has also been a positive driver of the country’s economic recovery. Transport, health and ICT-related amenities supported production, consumption, and trade activities during the pandemic and post-pandemic recovery periods.
Topic:
Trade, Cities, Resilience, COVID-19, and Amenities
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

415. Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand

Author:
Kazunobu Hayakawa and Sasatra Sudsawasd
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Since the latter half of the 2010s, China’s exports to the United States (US) have gradually decreased due to the US-China trade war and other factors, such as lockdown measures in China to combat COVID-19. This decrease has resulted in increasing exports from third countries, including Thailand, to the US market by substituting China’s exports, i.e. trade diversion. Against this backdrop, this study empirically investigates how the changes in exports to the US driven by the change in China’s exports to the US affect wages in Thailand. Especially, we examine the heterogeneous effects according to workers’ characteristics. To this end, we conduct regression analyses using individual-level quarterly data from the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2023. Our main finding is that the wage gap between low- and middle-skilled workers decreased, whilst the gap between middle- and high-skilled workers increased. Namely, the increased exports to the US caused ‘wage polarisation’ in Thailand. We also find that the increase in exports to the US contributed to expanding the wage gap by age but narrowing it by gender.
Topic:
Markets, Trade Wars, Exports, and Wages
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Thailand, and United States of America

416. Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact Firm GVC Participation? Microdata Evidence from India

Author:
Ketan Reddy, Subash Sasidharan, and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In this study, we examine the implications of economic policy uncertainty on global value chain (GVC) participation and the integration of Indian manufacturing firms using firm-level data. Using panel data from 2004 to 2021, we find that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impedes GVC participation and firm integration. Further, we find that the impact of EPU on GVC participation operates through the financial constraint channel with highly leveraged and low-liquidity firms. Using survival analysis, we also highlight that higher EPU results in higher exit from GVCs and reduces entry into GVCs.
Topic:
Economic Policy, Manufacturing, Global Value Chains, and Microdata
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Asia

417. Policy Recommendation to Achieve a Carbon-Neutral Economy: The Case of Corporate Governance and Carbon Performance in Malaysia’s Smart Cities

Author:
Siti Indati Mustapa, Noor Raida Abd Rahman, Amar Hisham Jaaffar, Nor Salwati Othman, and Syarifah Mardhiah Syed Salim
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study explores the role of corporate governance in carbon-intensive and non-carbon-intensive companies within Malaysian smart cities. The paper aims to understand the challenges and impacts of corporate governance on carbon and financial performance. In the first stage, carbon emissions data from 51 Bursa Malaysia-listed companies were analysed, revealing that corporate governance had no significant impact on carbon and financial performance. However, variations were noted in carbon-intensive industries. Liquidity emerged as a key factor positively affecting carbon performance, while firm size and market-to-book value were the main drivers of financial performance. In the second stage, a survey of 256 firms highlighted a high level of awareness regarding the significance of carbon reporting practices. Challenges included complexity regarding carbon reporting and knowledge limitations. The study advocates for the centralisation of carbon accounting standards, sharing best practices, and fostering of global collaboration to bolster effective climate action. These findings offer empirical evidence crucial for informing policymakers, companies, investors, and regulators alike. Future research could expand with larger samples, explore digital technology’s role in smart cities, and compare carbon reporting practices globally.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Smart Cities, Carbon Emissions, Corporate Governance, and Energy
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

418. City Amenities and Internal Migration: Evidence from Chinese Cities

Author:
Karma Wangdi and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper provides new empirical evidence of city amenities’ role in China’s internal migration using a unique city-level dataset. The results highlight the positive effects of city amenities such as education, public facilities, transportation, environment, and climate conditions in attracting migrant workers to cities. In our study, migrant workers are more likely to move to cities with better education, more public facilities, higher coverage of urban pensions, and a cooler climate with more precipitation. Moreover, they prefer to migrate and live in cities with larger service agglomeration and employment, higher average wages, more job opportunities, and lower house prices
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Cities, Internal Migration, and Amenities
Political Geography:
China and Asia

419. Urban Amenities and Regional Performance: Case Study of Indonesia

Author:
Titik Anas, Widdi Mugijayani, Estiana Cahyawati, and Muhammad Ridho
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the importance of urban amenities to economic development using Indonesia as a case study. Indonesia has rich micro-level data on urban amenities, which we group in this paper into 12 categories, namely education, health, religious, and shopping facilities; accommodations; banks; historical sites; recreation sites; restaurants; public transportation stations; modern shopping facilities; and gas stations. Using panel data of 2007 and 2014, we test how urban amenities affect regional development, proxied by employment and population growth. We show that education and shopping facilities significantly affect the growth of employment and population. We also found that the effect of the availability of education facilities is stronger in the regions with industrial parks.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Services, Productivity, and Amenities
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

420. Carbon Capture Storage and Utilisation (CCUS) Development in Thailand

Author:
Twarath Sutabutr
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Thailand is a developing country with a growing economy, which has led to increased energy consumption and carbon emissions. To tackle this issue, the Royal Thai Government has implemented several policies and initiatives to reduce the country’s carbon footprint and promote sustainable development. Carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) has just become one of Thailand’s policies to help push a low-carbon agenda and to enable net-zero emissions in 2065. The Thailand National Committee on Climate Change Policy approved the establishment of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Steering Committee, which initiated the technology applications for the country’s first CCUS. The committee’s mission is to accelerate the actions that can mitigate climate impacts by applying CCUS technology in the energy and industry sectors, leveraging the knowledge and experiences in the petroleum exploration and production industry. This first CCUS pilot project, originally initiated by a team in the PTT Group, is the Thailand CCUS HUB Project. This paper summarises the conceptual design and actions required to start implementing the project.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Carbon Emissions, and Carbon Capture
Political Geography:
Asia, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

421. Regional Amenities, Services Offshoring, and Skilled Employment in the Republic of Korea

Author:
Ju Hyun Pyun
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study empirically examines the effect of services offshoring and regional amenities on the composition of skilled employment for services firms. Analysing Korean firm-level data spanning from 2006 to 2019, we find that services offshoring, characterised by the import of services intermediate inputs, correlates with an increase in the proportion of skilled workers within firms. Additionally, the effects of this shift are nuanced based on different skill levels: services offshoring leads to an increase in the share of permanent headquarters workers to total workers. However, it does not affect the share of high-end skilled workers, such as headquarters’ share of management and research and development (R&D) workers. Moreover, regional amenities promote the positive effect of services offshoring on permanent headquarters workers’ shares. Lastly, the positive effect of offshoring on demand for high-end skilled workers in headquarters is significantly greater for firms with higher R&D intensity.
Topic:
Employment, Human Capital, Services, Skilled Labor, Research and Development, and Offshoring
Political Geography:
Asia and South Korea

422. Structural Transformation and Economic Resilience: The Case of Malaysia

Author:
Cassey Lee
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Exports have been a critical source for the resilience of the Malaysian economy during the COVID-19 pandemic and post-pandemic period. Long-term structural change in intersectoral production networks could have reduced this resilience. Stronger domestic intersectoral linkages and declining participation in backward global value chain participation are likely to reduce the impact of positive export shocks on the country’s economy. The services sector has become increasing important over time. Consumption in the services sector is clearly an important driver of growth. A positive export shock is enhanced by higher domestic intersectoral linkages in the services sector but not in manufacturing.
Topic:
Economy, Exports, Macroeconomics, Services, Resilience, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Asia, and Southeast Asia

423. Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino–US Trade Frictions?

Author:
Chien-Chiang Lee and Farzan Yahya
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the spillover and connectedness between the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) of the United States (US), China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea) under global geopolitical risk (GPR), infectious disease equity market volatility (EMVID), and GPR from North Korea (GPRNK) using a relatively novel time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach. Additionally, method of moments quantile regression is utilised to estimate the asymmetric effect of GPR, GPRNK, and EMVID on TPU. Our findings suggest that there is a high total and directional spillover amongst underlying variables during Sino–US trade friction that further elevated during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic period. The US is a net receiver of spillover from the TPU of all economies, while the Chinese TPU receives spillover from EMVID. The results further confirm that both the TPU of China (TPUCN) and the TPU of the US (TPUUS) are vulnerable to EMVID, but the effect is stronger for Chinese TPU in the higher quantiles. Although Japanese TPU is less vulnerable to GPR and EMVID, it is significantly exposed to GPRNK. Korean trade shows resiliency and immunity to pandemic-induced volatility and GPRNK.
Topic:
Trade Wars, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Spillovers
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

424. The Effect of COVID-19 on Firms’ Behaviour: The Case of Japan

Author:
Yuting Chen and Bin Ni
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Since the onset of the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) pandemic, social distancing practices and government‐mandated lockdowns have become the norm. These have cut off interaction amongst people, firms, and society, triggering an even larger decline in economic activity. In this study, we apply annual Japanese foreign affiliate data to quantify how COVID-19 has affected firms’ behaviour in various aspects. The estimation results show that both the revenue and purchasing behaviour of Japanese foreign affiliates were affected during COVID-19. This negative impact is mainly through the channel of stringent regulations imposed by host countries where affiliates are located. The general result we can derive from these findings is that COVID-19 negatively affects Japanese firms engaged in overseas activities. This leaves us with the question of when external shocks such as COVID-19 stand in the way of firms’ overseas activities, and what role the government should play to achieve a balance between safety and economic revival.
Topic:
Trade, COVID-19, Performance Evaluation, and Firms
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

425. COVID-19 and Firm Response: Evidence from China

Author:
Dongmin Kong, Chen Liu, and Mengxu Xiong
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper explores the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic on firm response. Using a novel COVID-19 sentiment index, our estimation shows that the pandemic significantly reduced the overseas revenue and profits of firms listed on the Chinese A-share market. Moreover, we observe that an increase in loans, and a drop in debt financing cost and trade credit, were prominent during the pandemic. We contend that reduced cash flows, which damaged firm operations; government support, which provided more financing channels; and increased default risks, which placed barriers on trade credit, are the plausible mechanisms through which the COVID-19 pandemic affects firm performance. Profit contraction was more pronounced for firms with a lower ratio of domestic content in exports and state-owned enterprises, while external financing was easier for firms subject to stringent financial constraints despite their lowered trade credit.
Topic:
Trade, COVID-19, and Firms
Political Geography:
China and Asia

426. Quantitative Analysis of Optimal Investment Scale and Timing for Flood Control Measures by Multi-Regional Economic Growth Model: Case Studies in Viet Nam

Author:
Hiroaki Ishiwata, Masashi Sakamoto, Makoto Ikeda, and Venkatachalam Anbumozhi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This study aims to develop and utilise a multi-regional economic growth model that can take into account flood damage and investment in disaster risk reduction, and, through case studies in Viet Nam, quantitatively analyse the long-term effects of investment in disaster risk reduction on the national and local economy, as well as the optimal scale and timing of investments in flood protection, to gain a better overview of these factors. The results indicate that additional investment in disaster risk reduction could stimulate economic growth, and that the optimal range of the disaster risk reduction budget rate was around 0.3% to 0.5% of GDP, assuming a constant budget rate throughout the total 25-year calculation period. In the case of a variable disaster risk reduction budget rate, we observed that a variable budget rate that gradually reduces the disaster risk reduction budget rate from a higher level than the current rate could further promote economic growth than if the budget rate were fixed. In both cases, we verified that with excessive investment in disaster risk reduction, the high tax burden had the risk of reducing investment in production capital and lead to stagnating economic growth. By region, the long-term effects of investment in disaster risk reduction were most seen in the Central region, where the rate of flood damage is the highest.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Investment, Flood, and De-Risking
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

427. Agricultural Production as a Coping Strategy during the Covid-19 Pandemic? Evidence from Rural Viet Nam

Author:
Hai-Anh Dang and Cuong Viet Nguyen
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
We examine the Covid-19 pandemic-induced negative effects on household welfare in rural Viet Nam. Analysing recent Viet Nam Household Living Standard Surveys spanning 2016–2021, we find robust evidence that lockdown measures resulted in a 3.9% reduction in per capita income and a 2.6 percentage-point increase in the headcount poverty rate of rural households. It also had severe effects on rural households’ wages and self-employed non-farm income, but rural households appeared to have relied on farm income to cope with the lockdowns. Each additional month under lockdown reduced wage income and non-farm income by 2.8% and 6.3% respectively but increased crop income by 9.5%, livestock income by 7.1%, and other farm income by 12.2%.
Topic:
Agriculture, Rural, COVID-19, and Production
Political Geography:
Asia, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia

428. The Role of Community-Based Associations in Social Protection: Jordan as a Case Study

Author:
Mohammed Bani Amer
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
In Jordan, the contributory and non-contributory social protection systems are some of the most important tools of the state and society for promoting social cohesion and addressing the risks that people face in their lives, such as sickness, death, old age, disability, and unemployment. The legislative structure in Jordan attempts to organize the work of all parties concerned with social protection through social security laws and national relief funds, in addition to regulating the roles, objectives, competencies, scope, and governance of charitable associations, which are one of the tools of civil society, to enhance the country’s social protection and strengthen its resilience to risks. This paper discusses the role of cooperatives and community-based associations in Jordan in strengthening the social protection system, examining the positive aspects and challenges through research questions based on the following key questions: Are these associations effective, efficient, and able to fulfill their vision, mission, and goals, or are they ineffective and suffering from issues and challenges that make their role marginal and ineffective? Does the existence of these associations and their encouragement by the state harm the official social protection system, and encourage people to evade the official social protection system and contribution payments given the existence of other forms of protection; and does this result in the state abdicating its responsibilities to these other entities, regardless of whether they create or reproduce negative phenomena and dynamics? This paper emphasizes that reaching a scientific judgment on the NGO sector, in general, requires a comprehensive study of a representative sample of all sectors and types of these associations, taking into account their size, the scope of their work, sources and amount of funding, work strategies, outreach, and other factors. This paper uses the methodology of qualitative analysis and addresses this issue by defining its scope to include two associations: Tkiyet Um Ali, one of the most important associations in Jordan, is based in the capital Amman and has several activities directly related to strengthening the social protection system in Jordan extending to all governorates; and the Arhaba Charitable Society, located in the outskirts of Irbid governorate in northern Jordan, with a specific geographical scope. These two associations will help us to build perceptions and scientific judgments to enable judging the NGO sector and its effectiveness in promoting and contributing to social protection.
Topic:
Civil Society, Community Initiatives, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Middle East and Jordan

429. Reflecting On Post-Electoral Disputes: A Need To Promote Living Together And The Authority Of The State In Cameroon

Author:
Kuba Abouem Perpétue
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The “years of embers” of 1990 marked the return to a multi-party system in Cameroon (Cameroon-tribune 2017), putting an end to the single-party system instituted in 1966, with the symbolic transformation of the Cameroonian Union (CU) into the Cameroonian National Union (CNU). Two major currents triggered this movement. These were upheavals on the international scene and their effects on national politics. In 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall symbolized the end of the Cold War, perceived as the triumph of the West and “the end of history” (Fukuyama, 1992). Against this backdrop, the French President François Mitterand gave a speech at La Baule that marked the beginning of the “third wave of democratization” (Huntington, 1991). On June 20, 1990, at the 16th France/Africa Conference, France decided to make access to Development Aid conditional on the establishment of democracy, in a sort of “Democracy against Aid”. Popular demands and tensions erupted, jeopardizing security and peace. This break with the past, marked by what was seen at the time as an easing of East-West antagonisms and tensions, which had the opposite effect on the African continent. Despite its perverse effects, however, respect for democratic freedoms was reaffirmed by the African Union in 2007 in the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.
Topic:
Democratization, Elections, and State
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

430. Political Alliances in Francophone Africa: Lessons from the Senegalese Sonko-Faye Model

Author:
Pouomegne Kamdem Prunelle Franchessa
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Over the past ten years, the political landscape of Senegal has undergone a remarkable evolution marked by the unexpected rise of Ousmane Sonko and the emergence of Bassirou Diomaye Faye as key figures on the political scene (1). As these two individuals navigate the complex dynamics of power (2), alliances, and conflicts, questions arise about the future direction of Senegalese governance. Political alliances, as defined by Giovanni Sartori in Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis, refer to the strategic cooperation between members or factions of the same political party or between different political parties, aimed at consolidating power, influencing decisions, and achieving shared objectives (3). The objective of this article is to analyze the dynamics and implications of this political rise, focusing on the partnership between Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye, particularly their ability to mobilize voters, structure an alternative discourse, and influence a political trend. By examining their collaborative efforts and the challenges they have faced, the aim is to shed light on the mechanisms of their success and draw lessons for electoral processes in Francophone African countries. This article uses a qualitative research approach, drawing on a comprehensive review of literature, political analyses, and media reports to examine the trajectories of Sonko and Faye. Through content analysis and thematic synthesis, the article seeks to identify key themes, challenges, and opportunities in their political partnership. Its structure highlights a brief history of Sonko and Faye’s political ascent, followed by an exploration of their partnership and the challenges they have faced. It then presents an analysis of their relationship and its implications for the Senegalese political system. Finally, the article concludes with practical recommendations to strengthen the legitimacy and effectiveness of elections in Senegal and the broader Francophone African region.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

431. The Role of Civil Society During Elections In Cameroon

Author:
Guy Beaudry Jengu Jengu
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In 2024, 19 African countries are organizing elections (1). More than half of these elections will take place during the last quarter of the year. In French-speaking African countries, more or less violent post-electoral crises (2) are quite common, and similar patterns observed. On one hand, the democratic openings of the 1990s either transformed single-party systems into ruling parties or brought former military personnel to power. On the other hand, the political landscape lacks robust policy platforms and ideological depth (3), and the vibrancy of civil society has rarely persisted past the 2000s. Yet, Cameroon currently has more than 50,000 entities claiming represent civil society (4). It is this civil society that is the focus of this analysis. First, the question of defining African civil society must be addressed, as its conceptualization outside of African democratic contexts and its ubiquitous usage in media make it a somewhat identifiable yet difficult to precisely define phenomenon (5). For the purposes of this work, civil society refers to an “autonomous associative sector, independent from the state” (6). Following Hegel, we distinguish it from political society, recognizing its intermediary position between prominent political actors and families (7). How does civil society deploy itself in Cameroon during the electoral period? The electoral period is divided into three distinct periods: before the election, on the day of the election, and after the election. More than 30 years after the advent of pluralist elections and multipartyism, this work aims to analyze the political, institutional and social logics that inform the practices of civil society during these moments, based on the events of the last presidential election. The objective is to uncover the actual repertoire of action employed by civil society actors during electoral periods in Cameroon, in order to identify ways to promote civic and citizen-oriented behaviors.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

432. Electoral Fraud and the Weakening Of Cameroonian Democracy

Author:
Joseph Thierry Okala Ebode
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The resurgence of democracy in Cameroon, mirroring trends across Francophone sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s, was characterized by electoral system reforms and the introduction of multiparty elections (1). However, the outcomes of these reforms and subsequent elections have often fallen short of expectations. The March 1992 multiparty legislative elections saw opposition parties secure a majority (92 out of 180 seats), yet they were unable to assume power. Since then, despite numerous presidential and local elections, the country has seen neither a transfer of power at the highest levels of government nor the local-level changes citizens have long desired. This aspiration for political alternation continues to be thwarted by a system that consistently reinstates the same leadership. Paradoxically, despite a proliferation of political parties (2), the influence and significance of the opposition continue to wane. This diminishing role of the opposition, coupled with growing democratic disillusionment (3), can be largely attributed to electoral fraud (4). Electoral fraud encompasses any illegal actions aimed at favoring particular candidates or party lists at the expense of others. This raises a critical question: How does electoral fraud, an illegal practice, lead to the disengagement of members of the opposing political landscape, the general public, and particularly the youth, from the political process? To address this, our analysis will focus on two main areas: first, examining fraudulent practices that operate within legal loopholes, and second, investigating overtly illegal fraudulent activities.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Fraud
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

433. Youth Participation in Democratic Processes in Francophone Africa

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Youth participation in democratic processes in Francophone Africa varies significantly across countries, influenced by socio-economic factors, political dynamics, and historical contexts (1). Here are some key aspects to consider, many Francophone African countries have histories of authoritarianism or single-party dominance, which can discourage youth engagement in formal political processes. High levels of unemployment and limited economic opportunities can lead young people to prioritize immediate survival over political engagement(2). Limited access to quality education and political information can hinder youth understanding of democratic processes and their ability to engage effectively. The younger population has always been a crucial group for political mobilization during elections in Africa. With the continent experiencing a significant increase in youth population, many of whom are struggling with unemployment and underemployment, winning the support of this demographic has become increasingly vital. Despite their large numbers and the significance of generational identities in the region’s history, there remains a lack of understanding regarding the political engagement of Africa’s youth(3). The media and digital platforms play a critical role in providing information about democratic values and election procedures, fostering safe spaces for young people to participate in the political process, and reducing calls for boycotting elections and using violence to keep young people away from disobedience. This paper examines the reason for youths reluctance to participate in democratic processes in Francophone Africa and the UN/global perspective. The paper ends with the role of Election Management Bodies (EMBs) and policy recommendations.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, Youth, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa

434. Financing Innovations – Cameroonian Startups and the Rise of Alternative Funding

Author:
Adeline Nembot, Yollande Meli Tankeu, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In Cameroon, startups have always relied on personal resources and bank financing despite their heavy investment requirements. Yet, rigorous collateral and high interest rate requirements limit access to bank loans. As a result in 2021, only 15% of Cameroonian startups had access to formal funding options, while the majority relied on personal savings or informal funding sources (1), such as Informal Saving Groups and Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (ROSCAs). Moreover, according to the Central African Startup Finance Report 2022, funds raised in 2022 by startups in Cameroon remained stable year to year at 7.3 billion francs CFA ($12 million) (2). In 2023, the Africa platform’s report showing the breakdown by country of funds raised by young African startups revealed that Cameroon attracted fewer investors, raising just $4 million, far behind Côte d’Ivoire ($17 million), Senegal ($44 million), Benin ($71 million), Kenya ($88 million), South Africa ($410 million), and Egypt ($640 million) (3). This restricted access hinders startups’ potential to innovate, create jobs, and contribute to economic growth. In this context, there is a need for exploring alternative financing options, which demands a shift from traditional to emergent financing solutions.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Innovation, and Startup
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

435. The Impact of Access to credit on Women’s Entrepreneurship

Author:
Vera Kum
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
This article explores how access to credit and financial resources can help women start and grow their businesses. Anchored within the paradigm of women’s entrepreneurship empowerment and social development, we will first examine from the literature some cases of access to credit in women’s entrepreneurship. A brief analysis of the significance of financial accessibility for female entrepreneurship development follows this. Finally, we will suggest some recommendations that can help decision-makers better formulate more inclusive policies to ensure equitability between males and females regarding credit accessibility for women.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Finance, and Entrepreneurship
Political Geography:
Africa

436. A Reflection on Africa’s Democratic Future: Why Governments Need to Invest in Curriculum-Driven Civic Education

Author:
Felix Kumah-Abiwu
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Three decades into the new wave of democratic rule in Africa after the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s cannot be overlooked. Countries such as Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi, and South Africa, are a few examples of countries that have continued to make progress in consolidating their democracies. At the same time, the continent stands at a crossroads (1) given the recent increase in military coups and the growing popular support for these coups (2) in West Africa, amid other serious security challenges facing other parts of the African continent. While Africa’s challenges are not unique, as with other emerging liberal democracies, the disturbing aspect is when many Africans are losing faith in their democratic system of governance. The popular support (3) for recent military coups (4) in West Africa is one of the manifestations of this worrying trend. This policy paper discusses the “new discourse” on democratic decay in Africa, especially in West Africa. To help address some of Africa’s democratic difficulties, the paper argues that African governments need to take policy steps in investing resources in a curriculum-driven civic education to help sustain Africa’s democratic future. To properly situate the analysis into a broader context, the paper provides an overview of Africa’s socio-political landscape.
Topic:
Education, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Curriculum
Political Geography:
Africa

437. Over-Indebtedness in Central Africa: Causes, Consequences, and Reform Strategies

Author:
Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The CEMAC region is facing a concerning situation of over-indebtedness, exacerbated by external shocks and the volatility of commodity prices. This brief aims to analyze the structural and economic causes of over-indebtedness in CEMAC countries while formulating policy recommendations to improve debt management and enhance economic resilience. Targeted at policymakers, financial institutions, and regional bodies in Central Africa, this work relies on an econometric analysis using a mixed model (Multilevel Random Effects) based on data from 2010 to 2022. Key indicators include external debt and public debt service. The findings reveal a strong dependence on external debt, while fiscal reforms have a limited short-term impact. Structural reforms are essential to reduce debt vulnerabilities. Additionally, regional coordination is recommended to improve debt sustainability through institutional reforms, increased fiscal discipline, and economic diversification. However, this analysis does not account for potential global economic shocks that could affect the region.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Reform, Diversification, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

438. Illicit Financial Flows in the age of Digitalisation in Africa : Opportunities and Challenges

Author:
Adeline Nembot
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In recent years, countries have witnessed the widespread adoption of new digital technologies for financial transactions, including electronic payments, mobile and online banking, e-commerce, cryptocurrencies, and gambling services. African nations are not exempt from these financial activities, particularly illicit ones. In fact, Africa is losing approximately $88.6 billion annually due to illicit financial flows (IFFs), a sum regarded as a significant loss of development opportunities (1). Such circumstances threaten the African Union’s Agenda 2063, which aims to achieve inclusive and sustainable development across the continent (2). Illicit Financial Flows (IFF) occur when money or capital is illegally earned, utilized, and transferred across borders. Typically, this mechanism is employed with the intent to evade taxes related to trade and fiscal records. While digital technologies can be leveraged to investigate, detect, and disrupt these unlawful transfers of funds, the evolving landscape of online business can exacerbate IFFs by enabling the movement of illegal funds to fraudulent e-commerce companies and online enterprises. Therefore, it is essential to examine the extent to which digital technologies can serve as tools to either mitigate or facilitate IFFs in Africa. This article aims to explore the opportunities and challenges presented by digital technologies and digitalization in relation to IFFs in Africa. To accomplish this, I will utilize secondary data sources from existing literature, including articles, books, and reports from international organizations with expertise in this area.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Digitalization, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Africa

439. Training-Employment Transition and New Digital Professions: A Solution to Women’s Employability in Cameroon

Author:
Yollande Meli Tankeu, Emilie Bitongo, and Adeline Nembot
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The primary objective of all training programs is to facilitate integration into the job market. However, the transition from training to employment—encompassing young people who study and work simultaneously, as well as those who are unemployed, underemployed, or dissatisfied with self-employment (ILO, 2020) remains a significant challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly for women. In Cameroon, the female participation and opportunity rate stands at 70.4%, which is 29.6% lower than that of men (Global Gender Gap, 2022). Nearly eight out of ten female workers are engaged in vulnerable employment, with 93% in informal jobs, and only 11% of paid workers have contracts lasting more than 12 months (Elder and Kring, 2016), from the ILO School to Work Transition Survey). Although there have been some advancements in the Cameroonian job market in recent years, the situation for women remains concerning compared to that of men. Recent advances and innovations in the digital sector present opportunities for a successful transition from training to employment, particularly for women, due to the emergence of new professions. In Cameroon, the digital economy accounted for 3.5% of GDP in 2016 (Djon, 2020). Since then, the digital sector has introduced a variety of professions, including digital marketing, community management, web writing, and blogging, which could facilitate a positive training-employment transition for women in Cameroon. However, women currently represent only 20% of digital workers in the country (Business & Finance International, 2023). This article examines the challenges of the training-employment transition for women and the emergence of new digital jobs as a potential solution to enhance their employability in Cameroon. Our analysis is structured into two parts: the first provides an overview of the training-employment transition for women in Cameroon, while the second highlights new digital professions as opportunities for improving this transition.
Topic:
Women, Employment, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

440. The Partograph: A Tool to Reduce Mother-Child Mortality Rate During Labour

Author:
Fobella Nkengafac, Regina Sinsai, Ghyslaine Bruna Djeunang Dongho, Solange Dabou, Evrard Kepgang, and Ronald Gobina
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The Safe motherhood initiative is a fundamental aspect of healthcare that was launched in 1987 with an aim to reduce maternal mortality and ensure positive birth outcomes in developing countries(1) [1]. In many parts of the world, women face numerous challenges during childbirth. As a result, maternal and child mortality remains a global concern as the rates continue to remain high with more than 69% of maternal deaths occurring in African countries with rates ranging between 500 and 999 deaths per 100 000 live births (2) [2]. These elevated rates of maternal mortality are generally attributed to complications that arise, during pregnancy, before birth, during birth or after birth, and are commonly avoidable through appropriate interventions. WHO set as part of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), to reduce maternal deaths to 70 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births (1) [1]. Despite significant progress in healthcare, complications during labour and delivery continue to contribute to a substantial number of preventable deaths. The partograph, a simple yet effective tool, has shown promising results in reducing these mortality rates during labour. Yet, its use remains relatively low in some medical facilities in Cameroon (2,3) [2,3]. This article aims to shed light on the importance of the partograph, its role in improving maternal and child health outcomes and highlights its role in reducing complications during labour.
Topic:
Women, Public Health, Healthcare System, and Infant Mortality
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

441. Liquidity Re-injection in the CEMAC Region: Balancing Effectiveness, Inflationary Pressures, and Economic Stability Prospects

Author:
Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the impact of liquidity re-injections by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) since June 2024 (1, 2) and their role in revitalizing the CEMAC region’s economy. While these measures aim to stimulate bank financing, they occur in a context marked by persistent challenges such as low financial inclusion and economic disparities within the region. The analysis highlights the need for stronger coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to maximize the effectiveness of reforms. Such coordination would regulate inflation, support economic growth, and enhance resilience to asymmetric shocks. This policy brief offers concrete recommendations, including improving credit allocation mechanisms, increasing support for SMEs, and fostering closer collaboration between BEAC, national governments, and commercial banks. In conclusion, an integrated and coordinated approach is essential to building a robust, inclusive, and sustainable regional economy.
Topic:
Fiscal Policy, Regional Economy, Liquidity, and Bank of Central African States (BEAC)
Political Geography:
Africa

442. Promoting the Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in Cameroon

Author:
Nkafu Policy Institute
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a transformative opportunity for African nations, aiming to establish a unified continental market for goods and services, enhance intra-African trade, and promote economic growth and development. As Cameroon embarks on this ambitious journey, it is essential to acknowledge the significant role that trade plays in our national development strategy. This report, titled “The Next Decade: Leveraging Trade for Cameroon’s Development,” serves as a comprehensive exploration of the policies, strategies, and partnerships necessary to fully harness the potential of the AfCFTA. In the coming decade, Cameroon has the opportunity to establish itself as a regional leader in trade and economic integration. This report emphasizes the significance of public-private partnerships and foreign direct investment as essential components in achieving this objective. By analyzing successful case studies from other countries, we can extract valuable lessons that will guide our approach to effectively implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Our commitment to strengthening infrastructure, enhancing regulatory frameworks, and promoting local industries will be crucial in creating a favorable environment for trade and investment. As we move forward, it is imperative that all stakeholders—government, private sector, civil society, and academia—collaborate to create a unified strategy that aligns with our national development objectives. Together, we can unlock the immense potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), driving sustainable economic growth and improving the livelihoods of all Cameroonians. This report serves as a call to action for all of us to actively engage in shaping the future of trade in Cameroon. Let us seize this moment and work collectively towards a prosperous and integrated African economy.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Free Trade, Regional Economy, and African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
Political Geography:
Africa

443. Modelling the environmental impact of agri-food trade policies

Author:
Jan Hagemejer
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
In the era of globalization, international trade policies significantly influence the economic and environmental conditions of countries. As environmental concerns grow, it’s important to understand how these trade policies affect sustainable development and identify the strategies needed to achieve positive outcomes for the climate and environment. This analysis aims to evaluate the impact of international agricultural trade on achieving certain climate and environmental goals, particularly those outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), mainly Goal 13, but also parts of other environment-related goals. We examined the effects of specific trade agreements, considering the current energy and climate policies, using modeling tools to focus on CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions like N2O and CH4. This helps us understand how international trade can reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally and find ways to prevent pollution from simply moving to other regions due to changes in trade. This working paper provides arguments for developing new and improved trade policies that incorporate environmental measures as tools to mitigate climate change.
Topic:
Agriculture, Environment, Food, Trade, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

444. 178th mBank-CASE Seminar Proceedings: Immigration and the Labour Market in Poland

Author:
Jan Bazyli Klakla and Maciej Duszczyk
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Over the last dozen years Poland became an immigration country. The 178th mBank-CASE Seminar proceedings is devoted to this process – from various perspectives. The data speak for themselves. Immigration provides significant support for the Polish labour market. Poland is facing a rapid population decline. According to projections by the Ministry of Finance in 2022, by 2030 the population of Poland could decrease from the current 37.75 million to 36.6 million, and by 2050 to 34.1 million. The percentage of people of working age will decrease, while the elderly population will increase. Immigration may provide a solution to this problem. In 2022, around 100,000 people from Belarus arrived in Poland, most of them actively participating in the labour market. In addition, there are 1.2 million Ukrainians who stayed in Poland after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is therefore necessary to develop a long-term immigration, education and social policy to retain immigrants and integrate them into society and the labour market. This is what eminent experts who have been researching migration processes for years write about in the first two chapters of these Notebooks: Dr Maciej Duszczyk, as well as Dr Agata Górny and Dr Paweł Kaczmarczyk, from the Centre for Migration Research, operating within the University of Warsaw. The third chapter is devoted to the situation of female domestic workers.
Topic:
Immigration, Labor Market, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

445. The Responsibility to Protect in the Americas: Exploring Sources of Mass Atrocity Risk and Best Practices for Response

Author:
Elisabeth Pramendorfer
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Abstract:
Over the past four decades, countries throughout Latin America and the Caribbean have made important strides – transitioning from dictatorship to democracy, exploring avenues for transitional justice, reconciliation and memorialization of past atrocities, and becoming champions of the human rights norms and multilateral institutions that safeguard humanity. Despite this progress, today the region has once again become one of the most violent in the world and governments around the region are systematically curtailing human rights. Independent UN investigations have documented possible crimes against humanity in Venezuela and Nicaragua. Similar patterns of systematic violations are unfolding in El Salvador. Escalating urban and gang-related violence in Brazil and Haiti resemble conflict zones and have resulted in unprecedented casualties. Meanwhile, the structural marginalization of Indigenous Peoples across the region, the militarization of security strategies and attacks against judicial independence are emblematic features of many countries in the Americas. Despite documentation of how phenomena like gang violence and structural marginalization of Indigenous Peoples may facilitate an environment conducive to the commission of atrocity crimes, atrocity prevention frameworks have not sufficiently considered the unique risks associated with these threats. While varying in scope and severity, democratic backsliding has further exacerbated the risks associated with these patterns in recent years. Instead of addressing such institutional risk factors, governments have gradually eroded the rule of law and have resorted to violating human rights, curtailing, and, in some cases, repressing and criminalizing civic space. Disproportionate and violent responses to street protests in Chile, Colombia and the United States further demonstrate that atrocity prevention should become both a domestic and foreign policy imperative. This Occasional Paper assesses recent protracted and emerging atrocity crises by examining various institutional and hybrid risk factors present in Venezuela, Nicaragua and El Salvador. This paper also provides recommendations for governments to identify gaps and opportunities to address atrocity risks in their own country, as well as how to strengthen the region’s atrocity prevention capacities by presenting options available on the regional and multilateral level to ensure robust and time-sensitive response. It is not too late to ensure effective, holistic and coordinated response to emerging situations in the Latin America and Caribbean region. Doing so will require the requisite political will, a steadfast commitment and the courage to prioritize human rights by countries in the region and beyond.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Atrocity Prevention, and Democratic Backsliding
Political Geography:
South America, Latin America, and Caribbean

446. Revisiting Gaza Ghetto

Author:
Shifaa Alsairafi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Gathering for Alarba’een, a day of remembrance when mourners come together on the 40th day after the death of a loved one or prominent figure, is a common practice in much of the Arab world. The 40th anniversary of the groundbreaking film Gaza Ghetto: Portrait of a Palestinian Family, 1948-84, which was co-directed by CCAS Professor Joan Mandell and was the first documentary produced about Gaza, was accompanied by a similarly solemn tone—not only because the neighborhoods depicted in the film have been destroyed since the documentary was released in 1984 but also because the situation in Gaza has grown exponentially worse in recent decades. Gaza Ghetto is set in Jabalia, which—along with the entire Gaza Strip—came under Israeli occupation following the 1967 war, and by the 1980s had become home to the largest refugee camp in the occupied Palestinian territories. Mandell and her co-directors chose Jabalia as the primary site for the documentary not only because of its size and historical importance, but also because of her familiarity with many intellectuals and artists living there who could narrate their story. “Jabalia had a vibrant life of arts and activism, and many people who wanted to share it,” recalls Mandell. Although the film includes interviews with many Jabalia residents, its producers decided to center the story around an individual family so that they could document daily life under occupation. They ultimately selected the family of Abu el-Adel because of the family’s openness and ability to articulate their own experiences as part of a collective story. Indeed, the personal stories narrated by Abu el-Adel, his daughter Itidhal and son-in-law Mustafa, were representative of the tragedies facing thousands of Palestinians and the mass dispossession forced upon them by the Israeli state. Mandell recalls that Itidhal and her daughter Ra’ida—both strong female figures—were a major reason she was drawn to portray this family. The film opens with Itidhal confronting the Israeli settlers who live in a town that displaced her father’s village and includes scenes of Itidhal caring for her six children while husband Mustafa works the nightshift, as well as sharing the story of how her mother died in childbirth when Israeli soldiers would not allow an ambulance to reach her during a camp lockdown.
Topic:
Human Rights, History, Film, Atrocities, and Documentary
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Jabalia

447. Minds in Exile: On Palestinian Thought After 1948

Author:
Vicki Valosik
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
An interview with CCAS Qatar Postdoctoral Fellow Adey Almohsen on his research historicizing Palestinian thought in the years between the Nakba and the Six Day War
Topic:
History, Research, Interview, Nakba, and Six Day War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

448. Scholasticide in Gaza

Author:
Samar Saeed
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
As a PhD candidate researching the Palestinian Revolution during the 1960s and 1970s, my discussions with former revolutionaries, known as the fidayeen, are always marked by their enthusiastic recollections of the books that profoundly transformed their being, thoughts, and imaginations. These books have transported them to other anti-colonial struggles, solidifying their commitment to revolutionary ethos and the liberation of Palestine. Take Suhayla Bahlwan, an avid reader whose cozy apartment in Amman was filled with old and rare books, periodicals, and novels. As a young woman, she used to return home from her work as a teacher and pour into the works of Socrates, Descartes, Kant, Sartre, deBeauvoir, Camus, Hegel, Marx, and Lenin. Then, after witnessing the devastation and the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in 1967, Suhayla began voraciously reading Palestinian history. She says that hearing first-hand accounts from Palestinian refugees who arrived in Jordan transformed her life’s trajectory and prompted her to join the Palestinian revolution. Khadijeh Habashneh, a clinical psychologist and a revolutionary, also underscored the pivotal role of reading in fueling her own commitment to revolutionary struggles. For Khadijeh, liberating the land was tied to liberating one’s mind and soul through the accumulation of knowledge. She loved theater, literature, and history and read everything from Arabic, Russian, and French poetry to political books on the Algerian, Vietnamese, and Cuban Revolutions. Besides her political engagement, Khadijeh authored a book highlighting Palestinian women’s contribution to the revolution, produced two films in Lebanon, and helped establish and document the journey of the Palestinian Cinema Unit, which, in turn, played a major role in documenting the Palestinian revolution. The experiences of Suhayla and Khadijeh echo a common narrative among the fidayeen I interviewed—that reading had been, for them, an emancipatory practice. Reading expanded their horizons and connected them with other revolutionaries, thinkers, and philosophers, while also arming them with historical facts and theories that informed their revolutionary work and strengthened their commitment to returning to Palestine.
Topic:
Atrocities, 2023 Gaza War, and Scholasticide
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

449. Black Power and Palestine

Author:
Michael R. Fischbach
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
MAAS alum Dr. Michael R. Fischbach discusses his groundbreaking research on divisions within the 1960s Black Freedom Struggle in America over the Israel-Palestine conflict and how Black Power activists supported the Palestinian struggle for liberation—planting the seeds for transcontinental solidarity that continues today.
Topic:
History, Solidarity, Activism, and Black Power
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

450. Palestinian Pasts in the Present

Author:
Rochelle Davis
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
In my book, Palestinian Village Histories: Geographies of the Displaced (Stanford University Press, 2011), I explored how histories are constructed and told, and the power to narrate the past. I was keen to understand what sort of narratives became “history,” and in particular how known historical events are fleshed out, supplemented, clarified or undermined by individual and collective memories and experiences. Today we are witnessing the retelling and reassertion of the past, on the global stage, as Israel executes its genocidal violence on Gaza.
Topic:
Genocide, History, Narrative, Collective Memory, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

451. Teaching Israel-Palestine

Author:
Khaled Elgindy and Yousef Munayyer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Two CCAS instructors reflect on their experiences of teaching Palestine in this historic moment.
Topic:
Higher Education, Academia, Teaching, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and United States of America

452. Teaching in a Time of War

Author:
Nader Hashemi, Jonathan Lincoln, and Fida Adely
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Professors Nader Hashemi, Jonathan Lincoln, and Fida Adely, each of whom direct academic centers within Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, reflect on what it means to educate and care for students in this present moment.*
Topic:
Higher Education, Academia, Teaching, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

453. La lucha contra la violencia contra las mujeres y la violencia doméstica

Author:
Claudia de Mesa
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El informe destaca tres avances significativos de la propuesta de Directiva en comparación con el Convenio de Estambul. La perspectiva de género, por un lado, integrada de manera indisociable en la violencia contra la mujer y reconociendo a las mujeres como víctimas por razón de su género. En segundo lugar, el mayor alcance de la Directiva respecto al Convenio, especialmente al imponer la obligatoriedad de su transposición por parte de los Estados Miembros. Por último, que su naturaleza jurídica permite abordar a agentes no estatales. Sin embargo, se señala que tanto ambos textos omiten abordar la trata de personas con fines de explotación sexual, a pesar de ser un grave problema con una dimensión de género significativa. En este sentido, se ha pretendido analizar la estrecha interconexión entre la trata de personas y la prostitución, probándose que esta es innegable y que, además, el negocio de la prostitución-y la trata, consecuentemente- se adapta constantemente a las circunstancias para aumentar sus beneficios.
Topic:
Women, Gender Based Violence, Public Policy, and Domestic Violence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

454. El Ingreso Mínimo: Vital Evaluación de los tres primeros años de la gran iniciativa de protección social

Author:
Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Este documento intenta recoger los puntos de vista expresados en la jornada que tuvo lugar el día 23 de noviembre de 2023 en la sede de la Fundación Alternativas, el think-tank independiente y progresista, algo más de tres años después de la implementación del Ingreso Mínimo Vital. Los contenidos de este documento han sido elaborados por el moderador del acto, Octavio Granado, ex Secretario de Estado de Seguridad Social, y el equipo del Laboratorio de Políticas Públicas de la Fundación Alternativas. Cuentan con la aprobación, la revisión y las aportaciones de las personas que intervinieron en la jornada.
Topic:
Public Policy, Universal Basic Income, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Global Focus

455. El impacto de la guerra de Gaza en Oriente Medio: Riesgos geopolíticos y escenarios de futuro

Author:
Milagros Álvarez-Verdugo and Juan Antonio Martínez-Sánchez
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Los ataques terroristas del 7 de octubre de 2023 representan un game changer en tanto en cuanto han puesto en evidencia que la ocupación indefinida de los territorios palestinos representa una amenaza permanente para la seguridad de Israel. La ofensiva militar contra Hamas ha colocado a la Franja de Gaza ante la mayor catástrofe humanitaria del último siglo y ha desestabilizado el conjunto de Oriente Medio. La inestabilidad se ha contagiado también al Líbano, Siria, Irak o Yemen, donde operan diversos proxies de Irán que han hostigado a las tropas estadounidenses desplegadas en la región y han sido objeto de frecuentes ataques por parte de Israel y EEUU. El 7-O representa, también, un test para la política exterior de la Unión Europea en un periodo delicado en el que se esfuerza por alcanzar una cierta ‘autonomía estratégica’ tras la invasión rusa de Ucrania. En este contexto, el principal riesgo sigue siendo que la guerra contra Gaza se contagie al conjunto de Oriente Medio arrastrando a la región a una conflagración de impredecibles consecuencias que también afectaría de diferentes formas a la Unión Europea y España.
Topic:
Security, Geopolitics, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

456. Informe sobre Sostenibilidad en España 2023: El papel del deporte en la transición ecológica

Author:
José Luis de la Cruz
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El deporte puede considerarse como el vehículo de paz e integración social más poderoso de los que ha creado la humanidad. La vinculación del Deporte con el Desarrollo y la Paz está refrendado por NNUU en distintos momentos, especial y últimamente en el Plan de Acción de Kazán donde además de reconocer el papel instrumental del Deporte en las políticas de Desarrollo integral, se vincula el mismo en la Agenda 2030 y sus Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible, dado su papel en la potencial mejora de la calidad de vida de individuos y comunidades. El Octavo informe sobre Sostenibilidad en España elaborado por la Fundación Alternativas dedicado al papel del deporte en la transición ecológica ofrece datos y tendencias precisas y confiables para los actores relacionados con el conjunto del ecosistema deportivo con el objetivo de ayudar a desarrollar e implementar políticas sostenibles que permitan una transición ecológica de la industria deportiva en España. Políticas que al tiempo que garantizan el desarrollo socioeconómico, protejan el capital natural, contribuyan a la lucha contra la contaminación y aborden la adaptación al cambio climático. El Informe proporciona una evaluación de la sostenibilidad ambiental del deporte en España, así como recomendaciones y nuevas iniciativas y políticas relevantes en este ámbito.
Topic:
Sports, Sustainability, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

457. La política de los jóvenes en España

Author:
Jose R. Rojo
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La percepción general sobre la participación política de los jóvenes en España suele ser negativa, asociándose con la apatía y el desinterés. Esta idea no es nueva y se basa en estereotipos arraigados, que persisten a pesar de que la oferta política ha crecido, sobre la pasividad de la juventud. Los jóvenes modernos desafían las definiciones tradicionales sobre lo político, complicando aún más el entendimiento de sus actitudes hacia los poderes públicos. Pero, ¿qué hay de cierto en estas percepciones? ¿Cuánto y cómo participan los jóvenes en elecciones, partidos y movimientos sociales? Ignorar las preocupaciones y perspectivas de futuro de los nuevos ciudadanos podría tener graves consecuencias a largo plazo. Con el objetivo de garantizar una democracia inclusiva para con los jóvenes, proponemos un análisis en profundidad y sin prejuicios, desde el que colaborar a la reconstrucción del contrato social intergeneracional.
Topic:
Democracy, Citizenship, Youth, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Europe and Spain

458. Desinformación y censura en conflictos internacionales

Author:
Vicente Palacio
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
El fenómeno de la desinformación no se limita al ámbito de las redes sociales; no es patrimonio únicamente de los regímenes autoritarios y populistas; y no afecta únicamente a la limpieza de los procesos electorales. Si ponemos el foco en el análisis de la información en los conflictos internacionales, debemos tener en cuenta que la desinformación es un fenómeno con varias ramificaciones. El punto de partida de este documento de trabajo es la constatación de que la desinformación, la propaganda y la censura en los conflictos armados representan una amenaza vital para nuestras democracias. Ambas atentan contra el derecho de la ciudadanía a obtener una información veraz, que es la base de las democracias liberales. Para España y para la Unión Europea, que están enfrentando dos grandes conflictos en Ucrania y en Oriente Medio, una información veraz y a tiempo debería ser la base de una democracia sana y también de una política exterior que rinda cuentas a los ciudadanos. Este documento tiene un triple objetivo. Primero, realizar un balance crítico de las respuestas legislativas dadas a nivel europeo frente a la desinformación. Segundo, hacer un repaso de los aspectos más relevantes en ambos conflictos de Ucrania y Gaza. Y tercero, lanzar reflexiones y algunas propuestas para poder combatir mejor la desinformación, la propaganda o la censura en la medida de lo posible, siendo conscientes de que en esa vía podremos alcanzar éxitos parciales, aunque significativ
Topic:
Disinformation, Armed Conflict, Censorship, Russia-Ukraine War, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Gaza

459. Autonomía estratégica abierta europea y ciclo electoral: Opciones frente a EEUU y China

Author:
Raquel Carretero, Lisa Garcia Bedolla, Vicente Palacio, Agueda Parra, and Ana Olmedo
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
La UE debe contar con capacidades propias que le permitan reducir sus dependencias frente a EEUU y China. Pero Europa afronta dificultades e incertidumbres derivadas de factores políticos y económicos internos a Europa y EEUU. Dos grandes procesos electorales en 2024 (elecciones al Parlamento Europeo el 6-9 de junio, y elecciones presidenciales en EEUU el 5 noviembre) tendrán importantes implicaciones para la llamada “autonomía estratégica europea abierta”. Teniendo cuenta este contexto político, este documento aborda varios aspectos. Primero, las dinámicas de continuidad y de cambio del nuevo ciclo político. Segundo, las tendencias actuales de las relaciones UE-EEUU en tres ámbitos principales: tecnológico-digital; política energética y nueva política industrial del Pacto Verde; y defensa y seguridad. Tercero, la necesidad de la UE de resetear y fortalecer las relaciones económicas con Beijing. Cuarto, las posibles opciones de la UE y escenarios respecto a EEUU y China. Finalmente, algunas propuestas para avanzar en la dirección de una relación estratégica más equilibrada y “abierta” respecto a EEUU, China, y el Sur Global.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, European Union, Economy, and Strategic Autonomy
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

460. Local Social Governance in China: Spatial politics and social welfare

Author:
David S. G. Goodman
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
The policy goal of establishing local social governance in the People’s Republic of China since 2021 highlights two somewhat contradictory tendencies in its spatial politics. One is increased social welfare provision through economic, social and governmental institutions cooperating to create self-sustaining communities. The other is greater city-district and county level local control by the Communist Party of China. Local social governance remains in its infancy with limited policy implementation. The evidence to date though from an examination of the settings for local social governance, its causes, and preliminary implementation does not suggest major changes in the longer-term balance between the Party-state’s undoubted centralist and decentralist tendencies. Moreover, while there may be the desire both to improve social welfare provision, and to extend the reach of the state and the Party, the proposed programme of change faces immense and probably intractable challenges.
Topic:
Governance, Public Policy, and Social Welfare
Political Geography:
China and Asia

461. Understanding Elite Politics Through Relentless Research: Warren Sun’s Hua Guofeng Nianpu, Chronology of Hua Guofeng (1971–1981)

Author:
Frederick C. Teiwes
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
Abstract:
This Working Paper is a pre-publication review of an immense documentary collection prepared over the past 25 years by Warren Sun, Adjunct Associate Professor at Monash University and Affiliate Member of the Sydney CSC. It is based on the intellectual premise that elite politics in the CCP cannot be understood without deep penetration into the details of political decision-making and conflict. In its absence, simplistic narratives emerge and become widely accepted, especially when the Party itself is creating the basis for the narrative. This is most prevalent for the immediate post-Mao period as a Hua Guofeng-Deng Xiaoping struggle between different ideological lines and in the profound misunderstanding of Hua as a limited, merely transitional political leader. Hua nianpu uses a wide range of sources to uncover details that contest such views. These include: the contemporary PRC public record; official documentary collections; internal Party documents including unpublished speeches and compendia of circulars at major Party meetings; memoirs, oral accounts, and recollections published in the PRC by or about leaders; studies by Party history scholars in PRC journals; more-adventurous books published in Hong Kong by Party historians and former officials; interviews with scholars and retired officials; and unique interviews with officials who worked as secretaries or as aides to very senior figures and their family members, especially members of Hua’s family. However, these sources have limitations that must be considered critically and discussed in terms of what they can and cannot provide. Taken together the detailed information compiled in Hua nianpu undermines central features of the accepted narrative, most notably by showing that the 1978 work conference and the subsequent Third Plenum were joint Hua-Deng ventures to advance modernization, and when unanticipated developments weakened Hua, Deng did not act against him. Instead, he worked to lower tensions and to return the focus to their original joint plan. Hua nianpu is a major basis for our joint book project, Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. But this nianpu is entirely Professor Sun’s creation and exacting work. The target for submission of both these projects to their respective publishers is early 2025.
Topic:
Politics, History, Elites, Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and Hua Guofeng
Political Geography:
China and Asia

462. Has the Iranian challenge been forgotten?

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel must take seriously Iran’s stated intention to destroy the Jewish state. Iran’s desire to attain nuclear weapons serves its goal of eliminating Israel and its strategy of using its proxies to threaten Israel’s civilian population. All measures taken so far to stop Tehran’s nuclear project have failed, and Israel has no choice but to urgently eliminate this threat by military means.
Topic:
Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, and Proxy Groups
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

463. Why Is It Taking So Long to Destroy Hamas?

Author:
Gabi Siboni
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
For years, the Gaza Strip has been of secondary importance, with the General Staff focusing primarily on the northern front and Iran. This focus has come at the expense of intelligence gathering, building operational plans, and operational attention to Gaza.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Hamas, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

464. Factsheet: Marco Rubio

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Marco Rubio is a US Senator from the state of Florida. He previously ran for President in 2016. He has a documented history of minimizing the issue of Islamophobia, promoting anti-Muslim tropes, and supporting discriminatory policies targeting Muslims. In 2024, President-elect Donald Trump nominated him to serve as Secretary of State.
Topic:
Elections, Islamophobia, Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

465. Factsheet: Sebastian Gorka

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Sebastian Gorka is a political commentator who appears on Salem Radio Network and Newsmax. He previously worked for Fox News and served as the Deputy Assistant to President Donald Trump in 2017. In 2024, President-elect Trump picked Gorka to serve in his second administration as deputy assistant to the president and senior director for counterterrorism. Gorka supports religious profiling, has targeted Muslim civil rights and advocacy groups, and has publicly worn a medal affiliated with a Nazi-linked Hungarian group.
Topic:
Media, Islamophobia, Political Extremism, and Sebastian Gorka
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

466. Factsheet: Walter Rosenkranz

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Walter Rosenkranz is a long-standing politician of the far-right FPÖ. In 2024, he was elected First President of the National Council, which is the second most powerful office in Austria. Rosenkranz has a long history of making Islamophobic statements and policy proposals, and has transnational links with anti-Muslim actors.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Far Right, Walter Rosenkranz, and Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ)
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

467. Factsheet: Mike Huckabee

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Mike Huckabee is the former governor of Arkansas, a Baptist minister, political commentator, and ran to be the Republican presidential candidate in 2008 and 2016. He is a staunch supporter of Israel, has questioned Palestinian identity, supports settlements, and has a history of making anti-Palestinian and Islamophobic statements. In 2024, President-elect Donald Trump picked Huckabee to serve as the United States Ambassador to Israel.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Islamophobia, Donald Trump, and Mike Huckabee
Political Geography:
Palestine, North America, and United States of America

468. Factsheet: Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation (Ekal-USA) is a Houston, Texas-based non-profit organization with over 70 chapters across multiple U.S. cities. It serves as the sister organization of Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation of India (Ekal-India), a Hindu nationalist group that operates single-teacher schools in India. Ekal-India has been accused of promoting hatred towards religious minorities.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Non-profits, Hindu Nationalism, and Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation (Ekal-USA)
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and United States of America

469. Factsheet: Herbert Kickl

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Herbert Kickl is the current leader of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), one of Austria’s major political parties that has shared power in various coalitions over the past three decades. It regained power, especially after mobilizing against immigrants and Muslims and is one of the main factors in the institutionalization of Islamophobia in Austria with many links to far-right anti-Muslim actors around the globe. Kickl invented the most successful anti-Muslim political campaigns of his party with slogans such as “Home, not Islam” (Daham statt Islam). Together with Viktor Orbán, Kickl established the Patriots for Europe (PfE or Patriots), the new far-right political group in the European Parliament, which has become the third-largest group ahead of the tenth European Parliament (2024-2029).
Topic:
Immigrants, Islamophobia, Far Right, Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), and Herbert Kickl
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

470. Factsheet: Tommy Robinson

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Tommy Robinson is a British anti-Muslim and anti-immigration activist. A co-founder of the racist English Defense League, Robinson believes Islam is a “disease” and Muslims are invading Europe. He has been connected to trans-national anti-Muslim activists and organizations, including PEGIDA. Robinson has had numerous criminal convictions and is currently serving time in jail.
Topic:
Immigration, Islamophobia, Political Extremism, and Tommy Robinson
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

471. Factsheet: Thomas Hoffmann

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Thomas Hoffmann is a full professor at the University of Copenhagen. He states that he specializes in a number of fields including Qur’anic Studies, Biblical Studies, Religion and Literature, Ritual Theory, and History of Religion. He was named a professor by the dean of the theological faculty. Hoffmann publishes in the weekly right-wing Weekendavisen and is a frequent commentator on contemporary Islam and Muslims in Denmark. He is also a member of several state institutions that advise the government on policies regarding religion and integration affairs. Hoffmann has styled himself as an authority on contemporary Islam, and his comments have promoted harmful stereotypes about Muslims.
Topic:
Religion, Islamophobia, Higher Education, Academia, and Thomas Hoffman
Political Geography:
Europe and Denmark

472. Factsheet: Rishi Sunak

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Rishi Sunak was the former Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party, the first British-Indian to be prime minister and when elected, the youngest holder of the office in modern times. As leader of the party and the head of state, Sunak failed to tackle Islamophobia both within the party and amongst wider British society.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Political Parties, and Rishi Sunak
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

473. Factsheet: Amit Shah

Author:
Amit Shah
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Amit Anil Chandra Shah is the current Home Minister of India. He was formerly the Minister of State for Home Affairs in Gujarat, a period during which the state police faced accusations of extra-judicial killings. Shah is a close friend, confidant and is often referred to as the right-hand man of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Shah has used his political position to promote Hindu nationalist ideology. During his tenure as India’s Home Minister, he has introduced laws and undertaken measures that target Muslims, Christians, political opposition, civil society, journalists, and critics.
Topic:
Politics, Islamophobia, Hindu Nationalism, and Amit Shah
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

474. Factsheet: Yogi Adityanath

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Yogi Adityanath is a Hindu nationalist and the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state. Described as a “militant monk,” he has a history of anti-Muslim rhetoric and inflaming communal tensions. Under his leadership, UP has instituted several discriminatory measures targeting Muslim history and Muslims themselves, including a deadly crackdown on anti-Citizenship Amendment Act protesters. Under his direction, UP has passed a law criminalizing interfaith marriage and there has been an increase in violence against Muslims.
Topic:
Minorities, Discrimination, Islamophobia, Hindu Nationalism, and Yogi Adityanath
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

475. Factsheet: Love Jihad Conspiracy Theory

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Love Jihad is a widely debunked conspiracy theory promoted by Hindu nationalists in India to incite fear, animosity, and violence against the country’s 200 million Muslims. The theory claims that Muslim men are luring Hindu women into marriages in an effort to forcibly convert them to Islam. This conspiracy theory has been heavily promoted by Hindu far-right groups, right-wing media, and the leaders of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). As a result of this conspiracy theory, Muslim men have been imprisoned, faced violent attacks, and killed.
Topic:
Far Right, Conspiracy Theory, Hindu Nationalism, and Love Jihad Conspiracy Theory
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

476. Factsheet: Sadhvi Rithambara

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Sadhvi Rithambara is a senior leader in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and is the founder of Param Shakti Peeth, a “charitable organization” in India, which also has two sister organizations in the US, Param Shakti Peeth Of America Foundation and Param Shakti Peeth Of America East Coast (PSPA). Rithambara is a leading figure in the Hindu nationalist movement and her anti-Muslim speeches played a central role in the demolition of the Babri Mosque in the 90s. Leaders of PSP in the US are also affiliated with far-right Hindu nationalist organizations.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Charity, Hindu Nationalism, and Sadhvi Rithambara
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and United States of America

477. Factsheet: Elise Stefanik

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Elise Stefanik is a Republican congresswoman from New York. Initially entering politics as a moderate, Stefanik has rebranded herself and become a staunch supporter and defender of President-elect Donald Trump. She has a history of propagating anti-Palestinian narratives, and has supported legislation targeting pro-Palestinian voices. She has also allied with organizations known for promoting Islamophobic and anti-Palestinian views, and has called for defunding entities like UNRWA, labeling it as a “terrorist front.” In 2024, President-elect Trump selected Stefanik to serve as the US Ambassador to the UN.
Topic:
Discrimination, Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Republican Party, and Elise Stefanik
Political Geography:
New York, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

478. Dirty Warfare? The Application of International Law to Attacks on Nuclear Power Plants in the Conduct of Hostilities

Author:
Julia Vassileva
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine poses multiple threats to international security, with nuclear safety and nuclear weapons returning to the forefront of global politics. Alongside verbal threats of using tactical nuclear weapons, Russia’s invasion plans have included attacks on nuclear power plants (NPPs), such as the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia complex in Ukraine. These actions raise critical questions about the application of international law to military operations involving NPPs and liability for resulting nuclear damage. This paper examines the scope of international law in such scenarios and concludes with implications from the perspective of strategic studies and NATO nuclear policy.
Topic:
International Law, Weapons of Mass Destruction, International Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

479. Supply Chain Risks in EU-South Korea Relations: Semiconductor Industries

Author:
Sunkung Choi
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Recent geopolitical crises and the Covid-19 pandemic have exposed weaknesses in global supply chains, leading to disruptions in the flow of goods and creating shortages. The semiconductor shortage crisis between 2020-2021 exacerbated these issues, particularly affecting industries reliant on chips. This crisis prompted governments and industries to prioritise resilience and independence in supply chains. This paper examines the causes, effects and implications of the supply chain crisis, focusing on the economic relations between the EU and South Korea. Both parties recognise the importance of addressing supply chain vulnerabilities and have initiated collaborative efforts to strengthen critical industries like batteries and semiconductors. Moving forward, strategic collaboration between the EU and South Korea will be crucial for effectively addressing the supply chain crisis. Measures such as enhancing supply chain resilience, investing in research and development and fostering technological cooperation are essential for ensuring economic stability and navigating future challenges.
Topic:
European Union, Trade, COVID-19, Supply Chains, and Semiconductors
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Germany

480. Artillery in Present and Future High-Intensity Operations

Author:
Elio Calcagno, Bryan Clark, Sam Cranny-Evans, Alessandro Marrone, Nicolò Murgia, and Eugenio Po
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Ukraine war has highlighted among NATO allies the importance of planning for protracted, large-scale, and high-intensity conflicts. In this context, artillery capabilities have regained significance, with a clear emphasis on survivability, quality, quantity, range, but also on adequate munition stocks and production capacity. However, successful integration into a wider array of capabilities (including long range precision fires) and advanced Intelligence Surveillance Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities are crucial for an effective artillery force. Meanwhile, in the maritime domain, recent events in the Red Sea have shown how naval artillery is gaining a prominent role as a cost-effective solution to defence from drone and swarming threats.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Procurement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Ukraine, France, Italy, and United States of America

481. Perspectives for Italy-Germany Energy Cooperation amid Energy Security and Transition

Author:
Alessio Sangiorgio and Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Italy and Germany share important similarities in their energy sectors, facing multiple challenges, first and foremost the impact of the energy crisis and its effect on transition efforts. Similarly, changing political contexts at the national and European levels creates new obstacles for climate ambitions, raising the need for bilateral dialogue and common solutions. The two countries’ economies are also closely interconnected, increasing the need for joint action on industrial decarbonisation and cross-border interconnections. A coordinated response in tackling the challenges of energy security, competitiveness and sustainability is needed and may yield positive results for both countries and the European Union.
Topic:
Security, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, and Italy

482. Reassessing the Kosovo-Serbia Normalization Dialogue: It is Time for a Reset?

Author:
Ramadan Ilazi
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
This paper questions the effectiveness of the ongoing EU-led dialogue in normalizing relations between Kosovo and Serbia, despite various agreements made since 2011 when the process started. This paper argues that the current process is leading towards a scenario where “no solution is a solution” could become the default stance of the international community, particularly within EU capitals. This is a result of Serbia playing the long game and Kosovo the waiting game. Such an outcome would potentially carry devastating consequences as it cements the status quo, risks regional stability, maintains Kosovo’s isolation, and deepens interethnic tensions within Kosovo.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Ethnicity, and Normalization
Political Geography:
Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

483. How external actors seek to influence the Western Balkans?

Author:
Harun Nuhanović
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:
The Western Balkans, a region with a complex history and significant geopolitical value, finds itself at the crossroads of influence from major external powers—Russia, China, and Turkey. Each of these countries extends its reach through various domains such as economics, culture, religion, politics, and security, exploiting both state and non-state mechanisms to cement their influence. This report delves into the strategies employed by these state actors, highlighting their individual and collective impacts on the strategic landscape of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro. The findings reveal how these external influences pose both opportunities and significant risks, shaping the regional dynamics and the future integration of these states into larger international frameworks such as the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, European Union, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Turkey, Kosovo, and Western Balkans

484. Collective Protection for Communities and Rights Defenders at Risk: Lessons from Grassroots Advocacy in Colombia

Author:
Mauricio Parra Bayona, Elizabeth Moreno Barco, and Jonathan Fox
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
Rights defenders around the world face unrelenting violent reprisals for their work protecting marginalized communities and their territories. Some governments respond by committing to protect these citizens at risk—mainly with individualized, police-style safeguards. Colombia’s government has Latin America’s largest protection agency by far and has gone beyond its many individual measures to also promise collective protection to communities at risk. In Colombia, the Community Council of the San Juan River region (ACADESAN), defends the rights of its 72 Afro-Colombian communities in areas affected by armed conflict. It has worked to hold the government accountable for delivering on its legal and policy commitments to protect communities at risk by providing comprehensive, collective measures. This Accountability Note describes ACADESAN’s breakthrough advocacy campaign for collective protection. It shares insights relevant for efforts to protect rights defenders and communities that go beyond conventional measures. It is based on the story told in Spanish by Mauricio Parra Bayona, ACADESAN human rights advisor, in his Accountability Working Paper, and the prefaces to that paper by former ACADESAN representative Elizabeth Moreno Barco and Jonathan Fox of ARC. Parra reflects on how collective protection must further be adjusted to better serve other at-risk communities and organizations in Colombia.
Topic:
Accountability, Land Rights, Advocacy, and Protection
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

485. After the Agreement: Implementing Remedy for Displacement in Northern Haiti

Author:
Scott Freeman, Lani Inverarity, and Megan Pearson
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
In January 2011, more than 400 families in northeast Haiti were evicted from their agricultural land to make way for the Caracol Industrial Park (CIP), a large industrial textile facility principally financed by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the US government. This Accountability Note chronicles the Haitian families’ remarkable path to pursuing remedy for their displacement. Against all odds, they organized, sought international support for their case, and, using the independent accountability mechanism (IAM) of the IDB, ultimately negotiated an agreement with the IDB and the Haitian government to restore their livelihoods. But their struggle did not end there. Much of the fight for remedy occurred after signing the agreement—a reality often under-acknowledged by accountability advocates. Support from local and international advocates has been critical to getting even partial implementation of the agreement. From the outset, the Haitian families’ chances of success were slim: few IAMs have the capacity or mandate to facilitate any remedy. Moreover, the Caracol case represents an extremely rare instance where a displaced community has successfully used an IAM to negotiate for replacement land. Still, for many families, delays in receiving remedy lasted for years, increasing suffering and exacerbating the economic and social losses that come with losing land. Monitoring and advocacy have been necessary for the six years following the signing of the agreement. Because of that, many of the families eventually received some compensation—including (for some) land. Although reaching an agreement to address harm is often the goal of an accountability mechanism process, this Note highlights the struggle that unfolds after the agreement is signed. Ensuring that remedy is actually delivered requires continual vigilance and advocacy. The Note provides key lessons for communities and advocates hoping to secure remedy through dispute resolution at IAMs: Lesson 1: A signed agreement for remedy is not the end of the process, but the beginning of another struggle. Lesson 2: Monitoring and continued advocacy are critical to getting remedy agreements implemented. Lesson 3: Remedy agreements must account for the possibility of challenges to implementation Even though Haiti presents a challenging political and economic environment in which to implement a remedy agreement, the lessons of this case are not unique to Haiti. As development banks increasingly operate in contexts of fragility and crisis, similar hurdles to remediation are likely to occur elsewhere.
Topic:
Displacement, Accountability, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

486. A Generalised Commodity Theory of Exploitation

Author:
Photis Lysandrou
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
This paper argues that the conceptual framework of Marx's Capital allows for the extraction of a commodity-based theory of capitalist exploitation that is distinct from the traditional labour-value based theory. The rationale for extracting such a theory is that it allows for an explanation of the current rise in global economic inequality in a way that shows this development to be entirely consistent with the fundamental laws of capitalism as it enters its globalised and financialised stage of development.
Topic:
Globalization, Capitalism, Commodities, Exploitation, and Financialized Capitalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

487. Tracking the Fortunes of Corporate Psychedelia

Author:
Sandy Hager
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
In recent years, new biotech companies have emerged hoping to cash in on a medical psychedelics market expected to be worth billions. This article examines the business models of two of the largest such companies. According to conventional wisdom, for-profit players are best positioned to deliver new cures for mental illness at scale because of their ability to tap capital markets. The analysis presented here challenges this story on two counts. First, it argues that profitability in the pharmaceutical business depends not on rapid scaling per se, but on controlling and restricting access to maintain pricing power. Second, it claims that the unruliness of psychedelics – manifested in the presence of cheap generics, murky intellectual property claims, and high costs of administration – raises serious questions about their commercial viability. The article then assesses the sector’s embrace of Johnson and Johnson’s patented form of esketamine, Spravato, as its prototype for commercialization. Spravato may provide a pathway for profitability, but patients must contend with high prices and a drug that provides only short-term relief and requires indefinite dosing. Rather than disrupt Big Pharma, corporate psychedelia replicates its main features, raising questions about its claims to tackle the mental health crisis.
Topic:
Business, Mental Health, Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology, Psychedelics, and Medicalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

488. Asset Ownership, Rates of Return, and the U.S. Working Class

Author:
Leila Davis and Charalampos Konstantinidis
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In this paper, we analyze the intersection of asset market participation and inter-class wealth inequality in the United States by showing that working-class households earn lower rates of return on their assets than non-working-class households. We, first, operationalize an empirical definition of working-class status using the Survey of Consumer Finances for 1989-2022. Using this classification, we, second, document that inter-class income and wealth inequality have risen since 1989. Third, we show that, with the exception of business assets, working-class households hold similar asset classes as non-working-class households and receive financial income. However, working-class households receive a 2.5 percentage point lower average rate of return than non-working-class households, conditional on observable demographic and economic differences across classes. This gap reflects differential returns on businesses and real estate. These results suggest that expanded asset market access in the U.S. has conferred unequal benefits by class status and widened inequalities along class lines.
Topic:
Markets, Inequality, Assets, and Working Class
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

489. U.S. Teachers, Overwork and Perceptions of Work-Time Reductions: Evidence from Massachusetts

Author:
Katherine Moos and Noé M. Wiener
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This study is based on four focus group interviews with public school teachers in Massachusetts about reducing work hours as a means of improving their working conditions. Our analysis documents a common experience of overwork, expressed in the focus groups and measured by time-use diaries. Teachers reported long work hours and a significant “mental load”—both of which affect teachers’ quality of life, physical and mental health, relationships with their families, and desire to keep teaching. While participants were union members and therefore experienced with collective bargaining, most approached the issue of overwork as an individual problem that must be solved by setting and maintaining personal boundaries. Focus group participants differed in their assessment of a hypothetical policy proposal for a work-time reduction without a loss of pay for teachers or instructional time for students. While generally supportive of the goal, participants questioned whether contractual reductions would correspond to actual reductions in hours worked. Teachers expressed both eagerness to include work-time reductions in future contracts, as well as skepticism that their districts had the fiscal space or political will to achieve this goal. Discussions revealed that teachers’ professional identities as hard-working and caring “perfectionists” inhibited their policy imaginations with regard to using collective bargaining to win them additional leisure time.
Topic:
Education, Labor Issues, Teachers, and Work
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

490. Implicit Coordination in Sellers’ Inflation: How Cost Shocks Facilitate Price Hikes

Author:
Isabella Weber, Evan Wasner, Markus Lang, Benjamin Braun, and Jens van't Klooster
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Supply shocks are now widely recognized as a driver of the recent inflation bout, but the role of firms’ pricing strategies in propagating input cost shocks remains contested. In this paper, we review the state of the academic debate over sellers’ inflation and assess whether, in line with this theory, economy-wide cost shocks have functioned as an implicit coordination mechanism for firms to hike prices. We use a dataset containing 138,962 corporate earnings call transcripts of 4,823 stock-market listed U.S. corporations from the period 2007-Q1 to 2022-Q2 to conduct sentiment analysis via both dictionary-based natural language processing and a large language model approach. We find that large input price shocks (as well as their co-occurrence with supply constraints) correlate with positive sentiments expressed in executives’ statements about cost increases. Qualitative analysis provides further insights into the reasoning behind executives’ optimism regarding their ability to turn an economy-wide cost shock into an opportunity to raise prices and protect or even increase profits.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Profit, and Corporations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

491. Distributional Implications and Share Ownership of Record Oil and Gas Profits

Author:
Gregor Semienuk, Isabella M. Weber, Iain Weaver, Evan Wasner, Benjamin Braun, Philip B. Holden, Pablo Salas, Jean-Francois Mercure, and Neil R. Edwards
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The 2022 oil and gas crisis resulted in record fossil-fuel profits globally that rehabilitated the oil and gas industry, obstruct the energy transition and contributed to inflation. We analyse the size and the distribution of financial beneficiaries of these unprecedented profits across countries and across wealth groups within the United States, using company income statements and comprehensive ownership data, to construct a global network of shareholdings with 397,619 nodes. We estimate that globally, net income in publicly listed oil and gas companies reached US$916 billion in 2022. The United States was the biggest beneficiary receiving US$301 billion in fossil fuel profits both from domestic extraction and through global shareholding, more than U.S. investments of US$267 billion in the low carbon economy that year. Analyzing the U.S. distribution including privately held US companies, 51% of profits went to the wealthiest 1%, predominantly through direct shareholdings and private company ownership. In contrast the bottom 50% only received 1%. The incremental fossil-fuel profits in 2022 over those in 2021 were enough to increase the disposable income of the wealthiest Americans several percent and compensate a substantial part of their purchasing power loss from inflation that year, thereby exacerbating inflation inequality. Record fossil-fuel profits also reinforce existing racial and ethnic inequalities and inequalities between groups with different educational attainments. Our results also show that only a small share of overall profits benefits institutions that serve the wider public such as pension funds. We discuss how windfall profits taxes could be used to both lower inequality and accelerate the energy transition as increasing geopolitical tensions and climate impacts portend continued volatility in oil and gas markets.
Topic:
Oil, Gas, Inflation, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

492. Sex-Selective Abortion and the Collapse of the Soviet Union

Author:
Raymond Caraher, Shih-Yen Pan, and Lawrence King
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Elevated Sex Ratios at Birth (SRBs)—an indicator of sex-selective abortion—have been documented in many countries worldwide. This paper examines the causal effect of the Soviet Union’s collapse on SRBs in Post-Soviet countries, using a differencein-differences research design. Our findings indicate that the collapse resulted in a rise in SRBs by approximately 1.5 percent, peaking in the late 1990s before subsiding in the 2000s. This result suggests that the collapse of the Soviet Union explains 64 percent of the approximately 192,000 missing girls in the Post-Soviet states in the 1990s. Furthermore, the impact of the collapse on SRBs was observed in both high and low son-preference countries, with the effect being roughly twice as large in high sonpreference countries, where it persisted into the late 2000s. The conventional theory of pre-natal sex selection typically involves the introduction of modern sex-determination technology into a cultural environment which values sons over daughters. Our findings suggest that economic and political shocks can also be key drivers behind increases in sex-selective abortion and SRBs.
Topic:
Reproductive Health, Abortion, and Gender
Political Geography:
Soviet Union

493. Is “High Inflation” Always and Everywhere an Exchange Rate Phenomenon?

Author:
Tural Yusifzada, Hasan Cömert, and Kagan Parmaksiz
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
After decades of stable and low levels of inflation throughout the world, the recent global upsurge in inflation has once again triggered extensive debate among economists about the underlying reasons for the rising trend in inflation. This study aims to contribute to this ongoing discussion by exploring a potential channel that could be fundamental to our understanding of the high inflation levels common across a large number of countries. Drawing upon a rich historical dataset spanning from 1961 to 2023 and employing a random effects panel probit model, our research reveals that the nominal exchange rate depreciation emerges as a strong predictor of “high inflation” episodes across different economies and time periods. Notably, this predictive capability extends to countries with varying income levels, with high-income, upper-middle-income, and lower-middle-income nations exhibiting success rates of 70%, 77%, and 63%, respectively, in forecasting “high inflation” based solely on exchange rate depreciation. Furthermore, food and energy prices also emerge as other important contributors to inflation. These findings have important implications for recognizing exchange rate depreciation as a vital early warning signal for high inflation not only facilitates more timely and effective policy interventions but also emphasizes the critical role of historical exchange rate dynamics and supplyside factors in comprehending the complexities of “high inflation.”
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Exchange Rates, Early Warning, and Panel Probit Model
Political Geography:
Global Focus

494. The Economics of Eliminating Plastic Water Bottles in the United States

Author:
Emily Diaz-Loar
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
As of the most recent 2018 data, U.S. residents purchased more than 70 billion plastic water bottles. On average, this amounts to each U.S. resident buying 214 plastic water bottles during 2018. Virtually all these bottles are manufactured as fossil fuel-based products, and 86 percent are disposed of after only one use. Such fossil fuel-based single-use plastic bottles inflict a range of severe negative impacts on the environment and human health. They leach toxic chemicals into the soil, water and food supply, which in turn contribute to causing various types of cancers as well as infertility, in humans and other species. They also release tiny ‘microplastic’ particles, which have been found in, among other parts of the human body, the carotid artery tissues that supply blood to the brain. Recent research has found that people with microplastics in their carotid artery tissues were twice as likely to have a heart attack, stroke or die from any cause over the next three years than people who had none. Beyond this, plastic bottles litter beaches and roadways, clog water drains, strangle animals and contaminate habitats. It is clear that continuing, and expanding, the consumption of single-use fossil fuel-based plastic water bottles, in the U.S. and elsewhere, is unsustainable. In this study, I examine alternative approaches to phasing out their use. More specifically I consider six possible alternatives to single-use fossil fuel-based plastic water bottles within the U.S. economy. These include: recycling fossil-fuel based bottles; utilizing plants as the raw material for producing ‘bioplastic’ bottles; and producing bottles with materials other than plastics, including paperboard cartons; glass; aluminum; and stainless steel. Of these alternatives, I show that, in terms of both environmental impacts and production costs, the most viable substitutes for single-use fossil-fuel based plastic bottles are reusable bottles made from either aluminum or stainless steel. Overall, aluminum or stainless steel-based bottles can significantly reduce the environmental impacts of water bottles, in particular the chemical toxicity that results from their use. Substituting aluminum or stainless steel-based bottles can also dramatically reduce the levels of waste and raw material extraction associated with fossil fuel-based plastic bottles. Further, I estimate that the costs of producing bottles from either aluminum or stainless steel will fall by over 30 percent in a scenario in which they substitute for 90 percent of the fossil fuel-based single-use plastic bottles now being consumed in the U.S. Overall, my results demonstrate that there are realistic prospects to achieve major environmental and economic benefits through phasing out single-use plastic bottles and creating viable alternatives to their continued use.
Topic:
Economics, Pollution, and Plastic
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

495. The Profitability of Bank Capital and Household Debt

Author:
Hyun Woong Park
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
When does the banking sector profitability exceed the industrial sector profitability? In a benchmark, counterfactual scenario where banks lend to industrial firms only, the industrial profitability exceeds the bank profitability unless the banks’ financial intermediation technology is sufficiently advanced and the industrial sector’s leverage ratio is sufficiently high. In a more realistic scenario where the banks lend not only to the industrial firms and but also to households, which rely on bank loans for housing, vehicle, education, etc., the bank profitability exceeds the industrial profitability when the household sector’s total debt services are sufficiently large, regardless of the levels of the banks’ financial technology and the industrial sector’s leverage ratio. It suggests that the households’ debt and interest payments are potentially a important source of the bank profitability exceeding the industrial profitability. That is, the bank capital beat the industrial capital in terms of profitability by exploiting the households’ financial conditions that force them to rely on debt for their full reproduction. Lastly, this result is empirically confirmed through the ARDL cointegration analysis with the U.S. quarterly data for 1984–2020.
Topic:
Debt, Economy, Capital, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

496. Do Abortion Bans Affect Reproductive and Infant Health? Evidence from Texas’s 2021 Ban and its Impact on Health Disparities

Author:
Raymond Caraher
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The overturning of Roe v. Wade led to a wave of abortion bans in state legislatures across the United States. This emergence of a restrictive reproductive health policy environment has the potential to affect a wide range of reproductive health outcomes. This paper uses Texas’s 2021 6- week ban on abortion as a case study to examine the causal effect of an abortion ban on reproductive health outcomes, specifically abortion rates, fertility rates, and infant health outcomes. It examines how these effects may be heterogeneous by group, especially focusing on how the effects of abortion bans on reproductive health may be concentrated in those who are already facing disparities in reproductive health outcomes such as Black women. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, the analysis finds that the ban decreased abortion rates by over 40 percent, and increased fertility rates by about 4 percent, with the largest increases for Black non-Hispanic women and for counties far from a state with less restrictive abortion laws. This paper then constructs a measure of unmet reproductive health needs after an abortion ban, and finds that the unmet needs after the Texas 6-week ban are largest in counties with higher proportions of Black non-Hispanic residents, as well as counties which are furthest away from states which did not ban abortion after the Dobbs decision. The analysis then examines the effect of the ban on infant health outcomes, specifically focusing on heterogeneity in the effect of the ban on birth weight and infant mortality. This paper finds that the ban led to increases in the probability of an infant being born with very low birth weight of about 7 percent, with Black non-Hispanic infants experiencing the largest increases in the likelihood of very low birth weight. Additionally, the analysis finds significant increases in the infant mortality rate of about 6 percent after the abortion ban, again with Black non-Hispanic infants experiencing the largest increases in mortality. Further, the ban increased infant mortality rates more in counties which are further away from states which did not ban abortion after the Dobbs decision. The results suggest that the effects of abortion bans tend to be especially concentrated in marginalized populations, as well as those who are least able to shift their fertility options away from in-state abortions after a ban. The analysis shows that the trend towards an increasing number abortion bans will further exacerbate disparities in reproductive health outcomes.
Topic:
Public Health, Reproductive Health, and Abortion
Political Geography:
Texas and United States of America

497. External Debt Stress and Domestic Debt Restructuring: Resolving a Paradox

Author:
C. P. Chandrasekhar
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The ongoing sovereign debt crisis in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) was signalled by instances of default or failure to meet external debt obligations denominated in hard currencies. But the response to the crisis has included attempts to restructure domestic sovereign debt issued largely in domestic currencies. Such moves have been justified by identifying the crisis as one of excessive aggregate public debt rather than just unsustainable levels of external debt. There is a need, it is argued, to reduce the gross financing needs (foreign and domestic) of debt-stressed governments that have accumulated excessively high levels of aggregate—domestic and foreign currency—public debt. This assertion ignores the difference between the stress associated with servicing debt in domestic and foreign currency. Governments can mobilise domestic resources using their sovereign right to tax and central banks have control over domestic currency supply, whereas both have little control over foreign currency availability, which depends on net foreign revenues earned and on net inflows of foreign incomes, transfers and capital. While domestic debt restructuring releases domestic resources, it does not automatically yield the foreign currency needed to relieve external debt stress. In addition, since the holders of domestic sovereign debt include citizens deploying their savings to invest in pension funds, insurance products and mutual funds, and commercial banks parking resources in ‘safe investments’, restructuring that debt through explicit or implicit haircuts is bound to be economically destabilising. Past savings would be eroded with adverse impact on current demand, and the damage to the balance sheets of banks would restrain credit to the detriment of consumption and investment. This makes implementation of domestic debt restructuring costly and difficult, as experience illustrates. Given that context, the paper examines the possible reasons why when less developed countries face external debt stress, the IMF and global finance insist on domestic debt restructuring as part of conditions associated with provision of emergency balance of payments finance or the restructuring of foreign debt.
Topic:
Debt, Investment, Currency, and Debt Restructuring
Political Geography:
Global Focus

498. Class and Space in Indian Cities

Author:
Vamsi Vakulabharanam and Sripad Motiram
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Indian cities have always been marked by stark class disparities and these have only become more pronounced in recent decades. Although academic literature has explored class relations (broadly) in Indian cities, there is a dearth of studies that rigorously explore class-space interactions. Given this, we use a socio-spatial methodology, a rigorous class scheme, and data from a spatially representative survey from Hyderabad and Mumbai that we specially designed to explore city spaces. We use three different notions of space: residence, work, and commuting, and present patterns that are not well-known for Indian cities. Along these three spatial dimensions, we show that class and space mutually determine each other. We show that in both cities, the class distribution varies across residential zones, and how a class fares depends upon its zone of residence. Class location also determines whether the work location of an individual is far from the residential location and the extent of commuting. We demonstrate considerable residential coexistence of classes in city neighborhoods. Apart from being an interesting feature of Indian cities, does this coexistence have any implications? We use an instrumental variable regression to show that class-based spatial integration results in higher economic development. Residents of mixed-class neighborhoods, particularly lower-classes, are less likely to be poor and more likely to be better educated, compared to their counterparts living in segregated neighborhoods. Based on this finding, we make a case for a more integrated and egalitarian restructuring of Indian city spaces.
Topic:
Political Economy, Inequality, Class, and Cities
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

499. Inequality and the Environment: Global Inequality Research Award Lecture

Author:
James K. Boyce
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This lecture, delivered at the ceremony for the inaugural Global Inequality Research Award at Sciences Po in Paris, provides a trajectory of the author’s work on inequality and the environment that was recognized by the award. Thirty years ago, many economists and environmentalists saw inequality as a non-issue. Today there is widespread recognition of its importance. The lecture reviews how inequalities in the distribution of wealth and power affect both the magnitude and incidence of environmental harms and discusses some of the synergies between policies to reduce inequality and to improve environmental quality.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and Inequality
Political Geography:
Global Focus

500. Towards a Post-neoliberal Stabilization Paradigm: Revisiting International Buffer Stocks in an Age of Overlapping Emergencies Based on the Case of Food

Author:
Isabella Weber and Merle Schulken
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The neoliberal stabilization paradigm of interest rate hikes and austerity left economies around the world unprepared for the shocks to essentials experienced in the overlapping emergencies of war, conflict, climate change, and pandemic. This presents a window of opportunity for a paradigm shift. Neoliberalism became hegemonic through stabilization policy. Post-neoliberalism will require an alternative stabilization paradigm. In this paper we revisit the classic reasoning for buffer stocks by Keynes, Kaldor, Graham, and others as a starting point for this paradigmatic shift. At the core of the neoliberal stabilization paradigm are the assumptions that competitive markets are efficient and that relative price changes ought to be separated from macro-outcomes. In contrast, buffer stock reasoning starts from the inherent instability and inefficiency of commodity markets. Price volatility in essential commodities can lead to sellers’ inflation because of the interaction with administered prices in the industrial sector and can hamper growth and development prospects. We illustrate that the buffer stock reasoning can help understand the 2020-2023 world food price crisis and propose a multi-layered buffer stock system for food staples as a steppingstone in a gradualist transition to post-neoliberalism and a tool for a green transformation of agriculture.
Topic:
Food Security, Finance, Neoliberalism, Macroeconomics, and Stabilization
Political Geography:
Global Focus