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8041. The Crimean conundrum: What has happened and what to expect in the future

Author:
Oleksandr Fisun
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
The Russian annexation of the Crimean peninsula represents a radical transformation of the system of international security on the European continent and in the wider context of the postwar “Yalta system” of interstate boundaries and their guarantees by major international players. The most important takeaway is that for the first time since World War II, one of the founders of the Yalta system of international boundaries has considered it within the realm of possibility to revisit its provisions by directly augmenting its own territory. This paper aims to analyze the outcomes of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the features of the newly formed regional political regime in Crimea, the role of Crimea in contemporary Ukrainian politics, as well as to present scenarios for the development of the geopolitical situation surrounding the “Crimean issue” in the context of the possible actions that primary geopolitical players may take.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

8042. Understanding Public Opinion in Russia During the Ukraine Crisis

Author:
Timothy Frye
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
What are public attitudes in Russia toward the war in Ukraine? Is this Putin’s war, or do his narrative on Ukraine and the policies he has followed toward that country resonate with Russian citizens? If the war has popular support, to what extent is this the case and why?
Topic:
International Relations, War, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

8043. Ukraine As A Buffer Zone? History Lessons For The New Geopolitics Of Eurasia

Author:
Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon, and Jack Snyder
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Amidst calls for containing an assertive Russia, politicians and pundits have been debating whether Ukraine should serve as a “buffer zone” between the Russian and Western spheres of influence. Based on a survey of the history of buffer zones in Ukraine and elsewhere, we argue that buffer strategies are most likely to succeed in promoting international stability when three mutually reinforcing conditions obtain. First, the buffer state has the material strength, defensible geography, and social cohesiveness necessary to resist penetration, annexation, or partition. Second, states that may contemplate using war as a means to annex or dominate the buffer zone anticipate high risks and costs. Buffers survive when flanking powers are relatively weak, satisfied, skeptical that “offense is the best defense,” and chary of commitments to reckless allies and clients. Third, whether the major powers have agreed, implicitly or explicitly, on rules to regulate their rivalry in the buffer region may also affect the likelihood of a collision. Based on these findings, we are doubtful that Ukraine can serve as a reliable buffer.
Topic:
International Relations, International Organization, International Security, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

8044. The Role of Donbas Universities in Reconciliation and Prevention of Future Conflicts in Ukraine

Author:
Olena Lennon
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Ukraine’s future depends in part on whether a formula for re-integrating the breakaway Donbas “republics” into the Ukrainian state can be devised. Most treatments of this problem dwell on decentralization and consider the forms that might take in eastern Ukraine. Olena Lennon examines the prospects for reintegration from an original angle. What role, she asks, might higher educational institutions in the Donbas play in that process?
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, and International Organization
Political Geography:
Ukraine

8045. The Challenges Facing Modern Ukraine: Oligarchy

Author:
Serhiy Leshchenko
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Modern-day Ukraine faces myriad challenges; chief among them is corruption and its derivative, oligarchy. By and large, Russia’s aggression in Crimea and eastern Ukraine was enabled by oligarchy. For deoligarchization to occur, Ukraine must adopt a law regulating transparency in media ownership that would require oligarchs to disclose their holdings
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, and Oligarchy
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

8046. The Challenge of Crimea for Russia’s Domestic and Foreign Policy

Author:
Sergei Markedonov
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Following a period of 22 years as a part of independent Ukraine, the Crimean peninsula entered into Russian custody in the form of two separate subjects of the Federation. This event constitutes a watershed in Russian domestic policy and relations between Russia and other countries and also poses a serious challenge to security throughout Europe. The Russian government would do well to forestall their emergence, not by exerting force, but rather by raising the quality of infrastructure and resolving other social problems. Thus the acquisition of Crimea, for Russia, is not the “end of history,” but the beginning of a complex process of integrating not merely the territory, but more importantly, the peninsula’s inhabitants.
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

8047. Non-State Militias and Borderlands in Eastern Ukraine

Author:
Kimberly Marten
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Kimberly Marten considers the role that freewheeling private militias have played, both in the war in eastern Ukraine and in Ukraine’s politics more generally. While militias supplemented the Ukrainian army’s firepower, especially in the early phase of the war, we know from the experience of other countries that autonomous armed groups can also challenge the authority of the state and undermine its efficacy. How might militias shape Ukraine political trajectory and shape its security?
Topic:
International Relations, International Security, Non State Actors, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

8048. Euromaidan, War, and the Development of Ukraine’s Political System in 2014 - 2015

Author:
Mykhailo Minakov
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Have the Euromaidan protests broken the rout of authoritarian rule in Ukraine? Is Ukraine’s political system tending towards free, democratic and open? It is probably too early to give a definite answer to these questions. In my opinion, there are two competing agendas in Ukraine, one of which supports the development of democracy, and the other which threatens it. The vast majority of Ukrainians supports one of these agendas and formulates demands correspondingly. Ukraine’s democratic prospects are in the process of unfolding.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, International Affairs, and Authoritarianism
Political Geography:
Ukraine

8049. Trade and conflict: Ukraine’s trade with Russia in and after 2014

Author:
Veronika Movchan
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This paper aims to review existing Ukrainian-Russian trade relations and explore the feasibility of Ukraine’s trade reorientation away from the Russian market, given growing trade tensions.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

8050. The United States and Ukraine—A Long, Hard Slog

Author:
Eugene Rumer
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Eugene Rumer’s paper focuses on American foreign policy choices, notably the complexity of pursuing objectives, some of which cannot easily be reconciled: helping to consolidate democracy and promote economic reform in Ukraine, contributing to Ukraine’s stability, reassuring nervous NATO allies, and avoiding a confrontation with Russia. Given these goals, Rumer asks, what would constitute a sensible strategy, and how should it be pursued?
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America and Ukraine

8051. How best to explain the Russia/Ukraine/EU crisis from different theoretical perspectives of international relations

Author:
Klaus Segbers
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
Many attempts have been made to interpret and explain the Russian annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in Eastern Ukraine. These signal events can be approached from different theoretical angles. The purpose of this short piece is to critically question the usefulness and appropriateness of state‐centered approaches that have been, and are yet, dominant and popular – most likely because they are so easy to apply intuitively.
Topic:
International Relations, Political Theory, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

8052. Ukraine in Contemporary Geopolitical and Socioeconomic Relations

Author:
Grigoriy Shamborovskyi
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This paper explores topics related to Ukraine’s Relations with Russia, the EU, and the US. These relationships are explored in terms of international trade, security issues and institution building. Finally, the existence of internal political and socioeconomic divisions is discussed.
Topic:
International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, International Security, and Political and institutional effectiveness
Political Geography:
Russia, America, Ukraine, and European Union

8053. Ukraine’s relations with the EU and Russia: Why geopolitics and domestic reforms are linked

Author:
Iryna Solonenko
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This paper discusses Ukraine’s choice between maintain relations with the EU and Russia, a choice that is not merely a foreign policy choice or a choice between two integration models. Rather, it represents a choice between two normative orders or two different value systems. If Ukraine succeeds in pursuing the European model and breaking away from its tradition of a “captured state,” Russian leverage in Ukraine will also diminish. Therefore, undertaking this transformation is of crucial – if not existential – importance for Ukraine. The very survival of Ukraine’s statehood will depend on it.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

8054. Crimea: Its Politics, Economy, and Resources

Author:
Yulia Tyshchenko
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:
This article examines certain questions and challenges pertaining to the Russian Federation’s illegal annexation of Crimea in the domains of security and the violation of both property rights and human rights, abuses of which are systemic in the region. The issues I will discuss, pertaining to the illegal nationalization of private and state property in the annexed region of Ukraine, are problems that entangle the Russian Federation in complex land relations, which have the potential to fuel conflict. This article examines human rights violations linked with the annexation of the Crimea. Problems have arisen concerning the persecution of different ethnic and national groups—namely, Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians—by Crimean and Russian authorities. Currently, both Ukraine and the international community lack significant opportunities to influence Crimea’s politics and economy.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, International Political Economy, and International Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, and Crimea

8055. If Japan and South Korea Go Nuclear: Two Military-Technical Scenarios

Author:
Ian Easton and Charles Ferguson
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
America's security alliances with Japan and South Korea made headlines last month. In addition to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's address to a joint session of Congress, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter visited both Japan and South Korea. Their main focus was on how to fortify Seoul's and Tokyo's security alliance ties with the US against possible Chinese and North Korean military threats.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8056. China in Latin America: Repercussions for Spain

Author:
Mario Esteban
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
Relations between China and Latin America are complex, strengthening, notably asymmetrical and fundamentally economic. Ties have intensified rapidly in recent years, to the extent of shaping the evolution of countries in the region and their processes of regional integration. Spain cannot afford to remain indifferent to this phenomenon, given its close links to this part of the world. The strengthening of ties between China and Latin America has a double-edged impact on Spanish interests. On the one hand, the headway that China is making in the region translates into a loss of Spanish influence and attraction in one of the traditional spheres for Spain’s foreign policy. On the other hand, the greater presence of China can contribute to the development of the region and is generating opportunities for cooperation and synergies with Spanish players, both public and private, on multiple stages.
Topic:
International Affairs and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, Latin America, and Spain

8057. The 2015 Spanish General Election: Political parties’ international priorities

Author:
Elcano Royal Institute
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Elcano Royal Institute
Abstract:
The Elcano Royal Institute, which is about to celebrate its 15th anniversary, has been working on three tasks over the course of its short but active history that are appropiate to a laboratory of ideas. In the world of think tanks, where the English language predominates, the three words that denote these tasks all begin with the letter “A”: analysis, assessment and advice. Our institute does indeed concern itself with carrying out international and strategic studies with the greatest degree of rigour possible and, as a result, throughout this time we have been providing both our society and the foreign reader interested in a Spanish perspective with serious and sophisticated knowledge on these matters. But our efforts extend beyond the provision of solid and detached analyses, because there is also a significant critical and, above all, prescriptive component, which is what sets us apart from an exclusively academic research centre. Setting out from a position that is independent but also committed to the collective interests of the country, our reports and documents venture to assess prospective opportunities and threats, indicate our shortcomings, identify good comparative practice, and note potential innovations that might enable Spain (whether its public sector, its civil society or its population in general) to insert itself into globalization and the process of European integration.
Topic:
Globalization, International Affairs, Elections, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Spain

8058. Beguiling Americans: a guide for Indian diplomats

Author:
C. Christine Fair
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Pakistan continues to receive succour from its long-time ally, the U.S., despite blundering about in its neighbourhood unabashedly- be it through righteous indignation or through generous courtesies. The external affairs ministry needs to improve its approach towards U.S. officials who are visiting India in order to better its relation with the country.
Topic:
Diplomacy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Pakistan and India

8059. AUra's Openings

Author:
Anna Tsing
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
AURA: Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene
Abstract:
This opening essay has two purposes: first, to offer a small introduction to the papers by Lien, Swanson and myself that follow; and, second, to introduce Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene (AURA) as a program for studying human-disturbed landscapes. I am in debt to Lien and Swanson for showing me catachresis as a feature of Anthropocene research. Catachresis helps me as I grope for language to describe AURA as an impossible program: a program dedicated to confusing disciplinary boundaries and to describing the challenges of life within the ruins created by modernization’s vast “improvements.” Following their guidance, I allow salmon to lead the way, saving AURA and landlocked landscapes for the sections that come after. Consider Swanson’s description of the strange Hokkaido device called an “Indian water wheel.” Hokkaido fisheries expert Ito Kazutaka visited Oregon’s Columbia River in 1886 and observed water wheels used to capture salmon; when he returned home, he combined the American technologies he noted with a Honshu-style (i.e., central Japanese rather than Hokkaido-based) fishing weir to create what he called the Indian water wheel. And what was “Indian” about this hybrid? Ito meant Native American, unselfconsciously commemorating the indigenous people whose access to salmon was interrupted by frontier-conquest technologies such as the water wheel. Certainly, “Indian” is catachresis. It usefully makes us pause. Japanese salmon are enacted in historically shifting hybrids of U.S. and Japanese frontier technologies recalled through the indigenous displacement they have in common. (In this regard, it seems useful to note that the water wheel was eventually outlawed in Oregon because it also killed off too many salmon.) Inappropriate language appropriately startles us. Connection, comparison, and displacement are wound together in forging modes of being both human and salmon; this is the condition of our times.
Topic:
Environment, Water, Fishing, and Anthropocene
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway

8060. Wreckage and Recovery: Exploring the Nature of Nature

Author:
AURA: Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
AURA: Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene
Abstract:
These papers formed part of the December 2013 workshop, “Wreckage and Recovery: Living with Change.” The workshop, held in Oslo, was a collaborative effort between the University of Oslo’s program in Technology, Information, and Knowledge (TIK), its Anthropos and the Material program, and Aarhus University Research on the Anthropocene (AURA). The call for papers targeted Nordic anthropologists and science studies scholars and was composed by Tina Talleraas, Sylvia Lysgård, and their associates at TIK. By pairing “wreckage” with “recovery,” the workshop set terms that stymied radical declarations of environmental disaster. Still, I’ll admit that I was surprised that among the ten papers presented, not one described “wreckage.” A majority of the papers were ethnographic and historical accounts of efforts at “recovery,” and, in general, the recovery turned out to be at least as problematic as the wreckage it aimed to address. A few papers described resource use and extraction, but they showed negotiation and mitigation, rather than ruin. To the extent this consensus suggests a “comfort zone” for anthropology and STS, I find it cause for concern. Is wreckage off limits? I come back to this question at the end of this introduction. For the moment, my job is to discuss what we offer, not what we miss. The four papers chosen for this working paper highlight the strengths in the workshop as a whole: these are sophisticated analyses of how “nature” comes into being. Rather than setting up a passive backdrop for human activity, the workshop papers described everyday practices, mobilizations, and contests through which natural objects emerge, at least tentatively, within world-making projects.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Disasters, and Nature
Political Geography:
Global Focus