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2. China’s Provinces as Global Actors: Evidence from China-Africa Relations
- Author:
- Charlotte Lenz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- With the launch in the early 2000s of China’s ‘Going Global’ Strategy, Chinese provinces became one group of actors participating in China’s South-South relations. In this Strategic Update, Charlotte Lenz investigates the role of Chinese provinces as foreign policy actors and explains their internationalisation strategies, challenging the prevalent perception of China as a unitary actor on the world stage. Drawing on evidence from Africa-China relations, the report identifies two strategies employed by Chinese provinces in pursuit of their foreign policy interests: (1) Formal and informal “twinning” as a collaborative model between central and local actors, wherein central actors design policies and provincial governments execute projects; (2) and “clustering” according to a sectoral logic of investment and diplomacy in which a certain Chinese province engages a certain foreign country. Despite ongoing bureaucratic centralisation under Xi Jinping, provinces continue to pursue their own internationalisation strategies to help meet local economic and employment targets. Understanding their agency, interests and limitations is thus key to deriving a better understanding of China’s evolving global presence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Investment, and Internationalization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and Asia
3. How Authoritarian Regimes Counter International Sanctions Pressure
- Author:
- Christian von Soest
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Institute of Global and Area Studies
- Abstract:
- Based on current literature, this paper analyses the nature and effects of external pressure imposed on authoritarian regimes. Around three-quarters of all countries under United Nations, United States, and European Union sanctions are authoritarian, and “democracy sanctions” that aim at improving democratic and human rights in targeted countries constitute the biggest sanctions category. Yet, authoritarian regimes represent particularly problematic targets as they can more easily shield themselves from external pressure than their democratic counterparts can. Authoritarians have a tighter grip on the public discourse and the struggle over the meaning of sanctions. They often even use them to their own advantage, denouncing sanction senders as “imperialist” and blaming them for their economic woes. The paper presents trends in the application of sanctions pressure against authoritarian regimes, reviews mechanisms of how economic and diplomatic restrictions work, and examines authoritarian targets’ attempts to engage in pressure proofing.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Sanctions, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
4. Erdoğan's Re-election as President Raises Concerns among Allies
- Author:
- Aleksandra Maria Spancerska
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s win in the presidential election and ministerial appointments promises to further weaken democracy, move Türkiye further away from EU standards, and continue so-called personal diplomacy and transactionalism in foreign policy. This could prolong the Turkish parliament’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Elections, European Union, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Sweden
5. Lavrov Visits Latin America to Try to Lure It to Russia's Side
- Author:
- Bartłomiej Znojek
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 17-21 April, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Brazil, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. During his trip, he argued that the goals and interests of Russia and most Latin American countries coincide. He also repeated false Russian narratives, for example, about the reasons for the invasion of Ukraine, portraying Russia as a victim of the policy of the West. While he used his stay in Brazil to legitimise the Russian narratives, in other countries, it was mainly about consolidating Russia’s ties with their authoritarian regimes, including cooperation on evading sanctions.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sanctions, Narrative, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Latin America
6. With Charisma, Stick, and Carrot: Reviewing the Effectiveness of EU Climate Diplomacy
- Author:
- Zuzanna Nowak and Stefania Kolarz
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Last year’s COP27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, was a major challenge for EU climate diplomacy, which, despite the unfavourable external circumstances (e.g., the war in Ukraine and economic turbulence), contributed to the conference’s positive outcome. The EU, as a global leader in the fight against climate change, seeks to increase its influence with external partners. Many of them would not have joined the climate action without its support. In addition to participation in policy dialogue, among the EU’s main tools of influence are various types of incentives and forms of support, as well as leverage measures such as political conditionality. However, the effectiveness of these tools is still being refined.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, European Union, and Influence
- Political Geography:
- Europe
7. FACTORING THE SMART POWER IN THE INDIA-EUROPEAN UNION ENGAGEMENTS: A SCOPING REVIEW
- Author:
- Nippun Gupta, Bawa Singh, Aslam Khan, and Jaspal Kaur
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
- Abstract:
- Power is a critical factor in several types of diplomacy. India-EU relations are a classic case of how changing geopolitics prompted diplomatic acumen. This scoping review assesses the changing relations of both partners as a manifestation of Smart Power. The dynamic relations from normative-based to pragmatic and inclusive interests based are evaluated. Their value-based relations are put under international relations theories. Their changing factors of cooperation are used to justify their smart diplomacy, where contemporary relations are less likely to be affected by multilateral interests. To solidify claims of smart power in their relations, the recent TRIPS waiver schism illuminated health diplomacy between the two regions. This health diplomacy discourse promotes smart power diplomacy between India and the EU, where new avenues of cooperation emerge despite pandemic disagreements. The article explores how hybrid power is better than soft and hard power in silos by systematically searching and selecting the existing knowledge in the contemporary context.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Health, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Soft Power, Hard Power, and Smart Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe, South Asia, and India
8. Hydrodiplomacy and the Food, Water and Energy Nexus: A holistic approach for transboundary cooperation and peace
- Author:
- Fadi Comair
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The rapid social and economic development in the world is leading to increased levels of water stress that point to potential water crises. As the most vital and strategic of natural resources, water can serve as an instrument of domination or of cooperation. Given the presence of key geopolitical concerns in the Near East, regional hydro-diplomatic cooperation is necessary to ensure fair sharing of the resource and to avoid additional tensions and conflict. Nine of the seventeen EMME countries are below the absolute water scarcity threshold of 500 m3/year per capita, including all six countries in the Gulf region, Jordan and Palestine. Those countries that share major transboundary basins in the EMME region such as the Nile, Jordan and Tigris-Euphrates basins are subject to multiple challenges which include unilateral water resources management, water scarcity, and environmental degradation leading to food insecurity. Hydrodiplomacy is a tool for applying integrated water resource management at a national and transboundary level in accordance with a cooperative model seeking peace among riparian countries. Multiple UN agencies contribute to bringing riparian countries together with a view to fostering dialogue and the sharing of information on water management and transboundary cooperation.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Water, Food, Geopolitics, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Middle East
9. The Syrian Civil War Twelve Years On: Can There Be a Constructive Role for Greece?
- Author:
- Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Loukas I. Papavasileiou
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Continual and ever-growing foreign involvement led to the internationalization of the armed conflict and turned Syria into a battleground for the strategic competition of several powers. The Kremlin has long viewed Hafez and Bashar al-Assad as indispensable partners in the Middle East and has repeatedly offered its diplomatic and military support in an attempt to achieve its own strategic objectives. Given the destabilizing effects the unending Syrian crisis has had on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean security, Greece maintains a profound interest in the resolution of the conflict. Greece appointed a Special Envoy for Syria in May 2020 with a view to reinvigorating its policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis. Greece’s successful re-engagement with key Arab countries and improved relations with other regional actors could pave the way for a more prominent Greek role in Syria. This could entail reinforcing its diplomatic cooperation with the EU Delegation to Syria, leading the EU humanitarian relief effort following the devastating earthquakes that hit Syria on 6 February 2023, and formulating a realistic and forward-looking strategy for the future of the Syrian people, including provisions for the voluntary repatriation of refugees and the protection of minority rights.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Political stability, Syrian War, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Greece, and Syria
10. Diplomatic scramble: Greek foreign policy towards Libya
- Author:
- Constantine Capsaskis
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Libya became a country of immediate interest to Greece following its 2019 Memorandum of Understanding with Turkey. Greece engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity in the aftermath of the MoU, both within Libya and the wider region, to counter Turkey’s momentum with Tripoli. The complex political situation in Libya and its many facets (proxy conflicts between regional and international players, competition for energy resources, and other factors including religion) compound the difficulties confronting Greek efforts to shield Greece’s interests. European division over Libya has led Greece to seek other bilateral approaches, primarily through cooperation with France and Egypt. Turkey’s attempts to normalize relations with its regional interlocutors (primarily Egypt, Israel and Greece) following the devastating earthquake that struck the country in February 2023 may yet change conditions on the ground in Libya, though it is still too early to tell.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Greece, Libya, and North Africa
11. Progress toward a breakthrough in Saudi-Israeli relations: ‘Haste is from the Devil’
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The positive and businesslike approach that marked the meeting of the Negev Forum Steering Committee and Working Groups in Abu Dhabi (January 9-10, 2023) proves that the drive to entrench and deepen the Abraham Accords is still ongoing despite the change of government in Israel. Hopes for a breakthrough in Saudi-Israeli relations are also still being nurtured, reflected in practical steps already taken. Moreover, the issue was raised with Jake Sullivan during his visit to Israel. Still, as the Arab saying goes, al-’ajalah min al-shaytan – haste is from the devil – and premature pronouncements have done more harm than good. The change will not come overnight: the Palestinian issue is still a stumbling block, and political dynamics in the Kingdom are complex, at least as long as King Salman still reins in some of his son’s ambitions.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia
12. There are certain times when national security challenges must overcome a divided nation
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar, Yaakov Amidror, and Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel is facing a series of critical decisions in the national security arena, and the necessary condition for dealing with those challenges is maintaining maximum national cohesion. Therefore, lowering the flames in the current public debates and reaching a compromise is imperative.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, National Security, Leadership, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
13. Recipe for Success: Israeli and Lebanese Analytical Perspectives on the Maritime Delimitation Negotiations
- Author:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The Israel-Lebanon maritime boundary agreement is not a direct agreement between the two countries, but rather two separate agreements with the United States. It is unique: the first such agreement reached between countries with no diplomatic relations, the first between adjacent states in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the first in the region to be resolved through indirect negotiations facilitated by a mediator. A confluence of domestic and geopolitical events contributed to the signing of the agreement, including elections in Israel, the deterioration of Lebanon’s economy and the country’s descent into political crisis, and the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for the global energy market. Effective mediation between parties was more important than the degree of trust the parties had in the mediator or the mediator’s relative neutrality on the issue. The United States was not an unbiased mediator, but because of its own incentives to deliver an agreement and its leverage over both parties it was the only possible one. International oil and gas companies influenced the negotiations, but did not directly participate in them. Due to their vested interest in securing their existing or prospective investments, they used public communications and discrete engagements with the Israeli and Lebanese governments to encourage a deal. This agreement could serve as a model for other maritime disputes by demonstrating at least two things. Firstly, solutions can be achieved when parties delink their maritime negotiations from the core issues in their bilateral relationship. Secondly, if two sides are committed to reaching an agreement, the international law of the sea is sufficiently flexible for them to find a solution, even when one party is a signatory of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the other is not.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Maritime, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
14. India's G20 Presidency: Opportunity to Resume Engagement in the Arctic
- Author:
- Anurag Bisen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The Arctic lies at the intersection of several issues with global consequences such as climate change, increased accessibility to and availability of resources, and global strategic contestation that have made the region increasingly relevant to the world. Temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at four times the global annual average, driving many of the changes under way there, most prominently sea-level rise and the thawing of permafrost, which impact both local ecosystems and the global climate system. International scientific cooperation and data monitoring and sharing are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change, counteracting its negative effects, and enhancing living conditions and economic activity. Apart from a few limited pockets of cooperation that still exist, cooperation between Russia and the West with regard to the Arctic has largely been put on hold since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. The current absence of research and data sharing among scientists is threatening to jeopardise scientists’ understanding of the warming trends in the Arctic, exacerbating the environmental emergency the region in particular is facing. One of the few channels that still exists for constructive dialogue on a range of Arctic-related issues is the GCSP’s “‘High North Talks”’, through which discreet exchanges on various important issues continue. Among other things, the G20 agenda includes climate change, sustainable development and the environment, all of which are under threat due to the cessation of Artic-related scientific engagement. The G20 also represents a rare platform where engagement between Russia and the West has not yet ceased. The suspension of dialogue and scientific exchange vis-à-vis the Arctic is driven by a deep distrust that needs to be overcome by an interlocutor that is acceptable to all stakeholders. India's theme for its G20 presidency resonates strongly with the Arctic and its impact on the world. The resumption of Arctic-related scientific exchange is an easy deliverable with global benefits that India, which has the necessary legitimacy, credibility and relevance, should use its G20 presidency to strive for.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, G20, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, and Arctic
15. Can Israel mediate an end to the Ukraine war?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel is well positioned to again become a go-between between Russia and Ukraine, an effort that could further elevate its international status
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Conflict, Peace, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Israel
16. PRC Foreign and Military Policy, 1977-81: Shades of Mao, the Imprint of Deng
- Author:
- Frederick C. Teiwes and Warren Sun
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- China Studies Centre, The University of Sydney
- Abstract:
- This Working Paper is a draft chapter for a book on the poorly understood CCP elite politics of the early post-Mao period, tentatively entitled Hua Guofeng, Deng Xiaoping, and the Dismantling of Maoism. Conventional wisdom pictures the period up to the December 1978 Third Plenum as a struggle between Hua and Deng, reflecting neo-Maoist v. reformist tendencies, and won by Deng at the plenum. In fact, there was broad consensus between them, Hua was more proactive in key areas, and there is no evidence of anything approaching a power struggle. This paper, however, deals with an area where elements of accepted views of Deng hold up. In essence, Deng held both the foreign policy and particularly PLA portfolios, notably where they concerned the crucial relationships with the US, Soviet Union, Japan, and Vietnam. In external relations Deng was broadly regarded to have performed brilliantly, while Hua was thought a mere cypher. Overall, Hua was clearly secondary in external relations, but he took the bold step of initiating relations with revisionist Yugoslavia, made the most telling proposal in the high-level negotiations with the US, and deeply impressed dominant European leaders Margaret Thatcher and Helmut Schmidt. Deng’s foreign policy outlook was deeply influenced by Mao, he could push Mao’s “horizontal line” concept to counterproductive extremes, almost losing the Sino-Japanese Peace Treaty, and rather than brilliantly negotiating US normalization, the Chinese side was slow to grasp the outcome that was always there. Most significant, and revealing of the underlying dynamic of CCP politics, was the war against Vietnam. This was truly Deng’s war, opposed by not only Hua, but also by a broad array of senior civilian and PLA officials, including surviving marshals. This was essentially the first time since his return to work in 1977, in contrast to persuading his colleagues through intense effort, that Deng simply asserted his authority. Neither here or elsewhere, was argument decisive as it had generally been under Hua’s leadership to that point. What was decisive was Deng’s enormous prestige as the most outstanding of the surviving “old revolutionaries” who achieved the success of 1949. It was the same factor that allowed Deng’s quiet coup against Hua at the turn of 1979-80, with no significant resistance from Hua or anyone else, and with no explanation being made in any official forum until well after the fact.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Normalization
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
17. Turkey’s struggling economy, regional isolation, behind latest charm offensive with Israel and other countries
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A clear Turkish rationale for better relations with Israel is to weaken the strategic partnership between Jerusalem, Greece, and Cyprus and get access to Israel’s natural gas.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
18. The EU is Reluctantly Getting Tougher with Putin
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Europeans surely remember what happens when you let an autocrat get away with grabbing territories hoping that the last bite will be the last one
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, European Union, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
19. Understanding the Russia-Iran-Israel Triangle
- Author:
- Daniel Rakov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- As Tehran invests efforts to improve relations with Russia, Israel will have to maintain a dialogue with Moscow to safeguard its military and diplomatic freedom of action.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel
20. The Ukraine Standoff as a Harbinger of Broader Shifts in the Global Order
- Author:
- Daniel Rakov
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Global powers might find it more challenging to reach a consensus on the Middle East than before. This makes it more critical for Israel to get separate understandings or develop new partnerships both globally and regionally.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
21. Will US-Israel ties withstand possible strains due to the Iranian and Palestinian issues?
- Author:
- Eytan Gilboa
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Despite former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim to a 40-year friendship with President Joe Biden, the latter preferred the new government headed by Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Leadership, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
22. Could Biden construct a new world order through détente with Russia?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Such a scenario would give the US a leg up against China’s totalitarianism and expansionist aims, and bridge the age-old schism with Russia
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Hegemony, Rivalry, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
23. Difficulties in the Negotiations with Iran: Implications for Israel
- Author:
- Eldad Shavit and Sima Shine
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The negotiations between the United States and Iran on renewing the nuclear agreement have run into serious difficulties following the opposition by the United States and the European partners to Iran's demand that the IAEA close the open files on the Iranian nuclear program before the implementation of the agreement (120 days after signing). At the same time, Iran continues to accelerate the program, including the enrichment of uranium using cascades of advanced centrifuges. Three scenarios are possible: a resolution of the crisis and achievement of an agreement; continued stagnation, i.e., lowintensity talks; or the collapse of the negotiations. The worst scenario for Israel is a continuation of the current situation, in which Iran could in a short time accumulate enough fissile material for weapons-grade enrichment for several nuclear facilities, while the temptation of a nuclear breakout increases. Thus, Israel should immediately formulate a new strategy regarding Iran. The government should conduct a discreet dialogue with the US administration and focus on proposals that seek to advance Israel’s military and strategic needs, including consolidating covert and effective cooperation with the countries of the region under the auspices of the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Negotiation, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
24. Normalization between Turkey and Israel: Will it Last?
- Author:
- Gallia Lindenstrauss and Remi Daniel
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The decision by Turkey and Israel to normalize their relations stems from several processes that brought the Turkish side to push for normalization and the Israeli side to respond affirmatively. Yet alongside the serious motivations of the two sides to continue this process, there are issues that could become obstacles. Among them are the developments between Israel and the Palestinians, Turkey-US relations, the dynamics of Turkey's integration in processes related to the Abraham Accords, and the nature of future Israeli plans regarding gas exports. Nonetheless, coping with challenges related to these issues will be easier with senior diplomatic representation present in both countries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
25. Two are Better than One: The Role of Qatar and Egypt in Gaza
- Author:
- Yoel Guansky and Ofir Winter
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The cooperation between Cairo and Doha has grown stronger – a development that until recently seemed nearly impossible. What lies behind the surprising rapprochement, how did it contribute to the swift conclusion of the recent campaign in Gaza, and what are the challenges and opportunities for Israel in light of the new situation?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, Gaza, Egypt, and Qatar
26. Putin and Erdogan Meet in Sochi: Another Challenge to the Western Bloc
- Author:
- Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, Gallia Lindenstrauss, and Arkady Mil-Man
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The Presidents of Russia and Turkey held a four-hour meeting recently in Sochi, along the shores of the Black Sea, and discussed a range of subjects, from trade and energy to involvement in different combat arenas. What are the two leaders’ respective interests in their dialogue – and what should Israel conclude from the deepening cooperation between Ankara and Moscow?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Turkey
27. The Abraham Accords, Two Years On: Impressive Progress, Multiple Challenges, and Promising Potential
- Author:
- Meir Ben-Shabbat and David Aaronson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Broad economic relations, high-level policy meetings, and developing tourism ties: two years after the historic Abraham Accords were signed, the relations between Israel and the four states have flowered. At the same time, the potential of these relations is far from realized, the challenges remain, and Jerusalem should commit itself to strengthen the Accords – and even to expand them
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations
28. Saudi Arabia and Israel: Normalization at a Snail’s Pace
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Since the Abraham Accords were signed, and particularly with Biden’s visit to the region, some have argued that Saudi Arabia will be the next country to normalize relations with Israel. However, complete normalization is far from imminent. What are the reasons for this, and how should Israel act toward the Saudi kingdom?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia
29. China below the Radar: Israel-US Strategic Dialogue on Technology
- Author:
- Assaf Orion and Shira Efron
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The statements issued by President Biden during his visit to the Middle East include little mention of China. However, close reading reveals that between the lines, China is quite present in the agreements reached by the President and Israel and Saudi Arabia. The dialogue on technology cooperation announced by Jerusalem and Washington, which is related directly to the Great Power competition, signals a new stage in partnership between the countries: Israel alongside the United States, even if not against China
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Science and Technology, Bilateral Relations, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America
30. The Iranian-Russian-Turkish Summit in Tehran
- Author:
- Raz Zimmt, Gallia Lindenstrauss, Bat Chen Druyan Feldman, and Arkady Mil-Man
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The three-way summit between Presidents Raisi, Putin, and Erdogan intended to present a unified front against the Western axis, which imposes various levels of sanctions on the three states. But despite the cordial photos and warm handshakes, there are serious disputes between Tehran, Moscow, and Ankara. They are rivals no less than they are partners, and it is doubtful whether their meeting will lead to any substantive gains
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Turkey, and Middle East
31. Resolving the Gas Dispute with Lebanon: First Exhaust Diplomatic Efforts
- Author:
- Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Hezbollah’s launch of UAVs at the Karish gas field was a cognitive action directed at Israel and the Lebanese, and sparked much public criticism in the Lebanese political establishment, which is eager to reach an arrangement on the gas issue. At this stage, Israel is right not to react to the UAVs militarily, and should continue to try to exhaust the diplomatic route with its northern neighbor to demarcate the maritime border, while recognizing that the Shiite organization will attempt again to challenge the balance of deterrence
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
32. President Biden's Visit to the Middle East: Recommendations for Israel
- Author:
- Tamir Hayman and Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- President Biden’s forthcoming trip to Israel, intended to emphasize the US commitment to Israel’s security, brings with it a golden opportunity for Jerusalem on issues such as Iran, the campaign between wars, and Saudi Arabia – also on the Biden itinerary, where the President will attempt to achieve immediate economic gains
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
33. The Iranian Nuclear Program Advances, with only a Slim Chance of Restoring Nuclear Agreement
- Author:
- Sima Shine and Ephraim Asculai
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although the nuclear talks in Vienna were renewed over a year ago, a return to the deal is not on the horizon, and the regime of the ayatollahs has increased the pace of its violations of the deal, which will make it even harder for the parties to reach understandings. The coming weeks will be critical, and at this point the world powers, as well as Israel, must prepare for a reality where there is no agreement, accompanied by troubling Iranian progress on its nuclear program
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, Peace, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
34. Between Erdogan, Mitsotakis, and Biden: The Evolving Ankara-Athens-Washington Triangle
- Author:
- Gallia Lindenstrauss, Christoph Becker, and Remi Daniel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- “The Prime Minister of Greece no longer exists for me,” declared Turkey’s President, reflecting a break in the rapprochement seen over the past year between Ankara and Athens. What lies behind this change of approach, and how does this affect Israel’s relations with Eastern Mediterranean states?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Greece, North America, United States of America, and Mediterranean
35. The Gulf States and the Palestinian Authority: On the Brink of Change?
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Kobi Michael
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The Palestinian Authority leadership seeks to ease the tensions between the PA and the UAE and Bahrain – tensions that escalated after the Abraham Accords were signed. Should Israel be concerned about the expected rapprochement, or should it rather try to take advantage of the opportunities that might ensue?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, and Gulf Nations
36. US Relations with Arab Gulf States: A Passing Crisis?
- Author:
- Yoel Guzansky and Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After US–Saudi relations deteriorated when Biden entered the White House, relations between the two countries have recently improved, with reports of a possible visit by the US president to Riyadh. What are the reasons for the rapprochement trend, and how can it affect Israel?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
37. Stalemate in Talks with Iran on a Return to the Nuclear Agreement
- Author:
- Sima Shine and Eldad Shavit
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The talks in Vienna between the United States and Iran ended with the text of the agreement almost complete. Conclusion of the deal rests on political decisions in Washington and Tehran, mostly concerning the Iranian demand to remove the Revolutionary Guards from the State Department’s list of terror organizations. At this stage the chances of finalizing the deal are equal to the chances of the talks collapsing. How should Israel act at this sensitive time?
- Topic:
- Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
38. Walking a Fine Line: Turkey’s Mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and Relations with the West
- Author:
- Remi Daniel and Gallia Lindenstrauss
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s reaction to the Russian aggression in Ukraine was among the more moderate responses heard from NATO members. With an eye to the post-war situation, Ankara is trying to walk a tightrope and not overly provoke either side. What lies behind this Turkish policy, and is it viable?
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Conflict, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, and Ukraine
39. The War in Ukraine: The Challenge of Shaping an Endgame
- Author:
- Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although nearly three weeks have passed since Putin invaded Ukraine, there is no framework for an endgame on the horizon. While the United States and the West would like to bring Putin to his knees as he sinks deeper in the Ukrainian mud, Washington must recognize that the longer the war continues, the chances increase for escalation to new levels that neither side wants. Therefore, before the situation is completely out of control, there must be a dialogue with Russia that can lead to an end to the war.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
40. Egypt and Israel: Renewable Energies for Peace
- Author:
- Ofir Winter
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Egypt’s intense preparations for the international climate conference that it will host in Sharm el-Sheikh were evident at the World Youth Forum that met there this past January. Many of the conference sessions were devoted to the climate issue, which is currently challenging the international system in general, and Egypt in particular. Cairo’s goal to serve as a regional hub for gas and renewable energies presents an opportunity for increased cooperation between Egypt and Israel – particularly at a time that Europe is confronted with the ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Israel, and Egypt
41. The Implications of the Third Trilateral Meeting in Brussels
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- In a way towards a productive peace-building process, discussing the situation in South Caucasus and deepening economic cooperation between the EU and both countries, on May 23 President of the European Council Charles Michel hosted the President of Azerbaijan: Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia: Nikol Pashinyan. Following the 6 April meeting, which is called by the President Ilham Aliyev as a starting point in the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the content of the recent meeting is once more characterized by its promising and necessary provisions that will serve the interests of Azerbaijan and development of the region more broadly.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Brussels
42. The Future Offers of the Second Trilateral Meeting in Brussels for the Region
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- For a continuation of the discussion on the situation in South Caucasus and deepening cooperation between the EU and both countries, on April 6 President of the European Council Charles Michel held a meeting with the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan where EU’s commitment in overcoming tension and the peace-building process was further expressed. The EU reiterated the necessity to adhere to the provisions of 09/10 November 2020 trilateral statement.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, European Union, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- South Caucasus and Brussels
43. Arresting Nuclear Adventurism: China, Article VI, and the NPT
- Author:
- Henry Sokolski and Andrea Beck
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
- Abstract:
- Given the current crisis in Ukraine, it’s tempting to consider focusing on Chinese compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) to be an academic indulgence. Giving into this inclination, however, would be a mistake. As dangerous as Russia currently is, China will be more threatening in the long run. As we are learning with Russia’s violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, enforcing binding understandings is critical lest violators run roughshod over law and good order. This is true with Russia’s behavior in Ukraine. It is no less so with China’s nuclear weapons buildup and its repeated refusal to join in good faith negotiations to limit its nuclear weapons activities, which is required by Article VI of the NPT. This buildup and refusal clearly flies in the face of China’s legal NPT obligations. The question is what might bring Beijing back into compliance. To get the answers, NPEC held a battery of workshops last fall, followed by a week-long diplomatic simulation. The game participants included U.S., Japanese, and Australian former and current officials and staff as well as outside experts. The group concluded that Beijing is unlikely to comply willingly with the NPT anytime soon, but that U.S. and international security would still be best served by spotlighting Beijing’s nuclear adventurism and suggesting diplomatic off-ramps to arrest its nuclear buildup.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Peace, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, and Asia
44. ASPI AUKUS update 2: September 2022—the one-year anniversary
- Author:
- Malcolm Davis, Ben Stevens, Alex Bristow, and Marcus Hellyer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
- Abstract:
- Consistent with a partnership that’s focused on the development of defence and technological capability rather than diplomatic grandstanding,1 there have been few public announcements about the progress of AUKUS. That’s an observation we made in our first AUKUS update in May,2 and one we make again in this latest update, one year on from the joint unveiling of the partnership in mid-September 2021. Periodic press releases note meetings of the three-country joint steering groups—one of which looks at submarines and the other at advanced capabilities—but provide little hint about what was discussed.3 On Submarines, we shouldn’t expect to hear anything concrete until the 18-month consultation phase concludes in March 2022. What’s changed, however, is that the strategic environment that gave birth to AUKUS has worsened markedly, most notably in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s escalating pressure on Taiwan and other parts of the Indo-Pacific. Those developments are making the advanced technologies AUKUS aims to foster even more relevant.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Partnerships, and AUKUS
- Political Geography:
- Australia and Australia/Pacific
45. US-Taiwan Deterrence and Defense Dialogue: Responding to Increased Chinese Aggressiveness
- Author:
- Jeffrey Ordaniel
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pacific Forum
- Abstract:
- Taiwan is already under attack by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) politically, economically, psychologically, and militarily—the latter through more aggressive Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) gray zone military operations short of actual direct conflict. This multidimensional threat requires a multidimensional response in ways that complement and enhance military deterrence. PRC behavior represents a global problem that demands a global response. PRC pressure on Taiwan has increased considerably over the past year, even before Beijing used the visit by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi as an excuse to further ramp up pressure. The August 2022 PLA military exercise around Taiwan appears aimed at further creating a “new normal” that could reduce warning times should Beijing invade. However, such PRC actions are not “normal.” They are unilateral, destabilizing, and, in some instances, illegal changes to the status quo. Such Chinese pressure tactics, combined with the “wake up call” provided by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, have sensitized the citizens and governments of Taiwan, the United States, and the international community to the growing possibility—if not probability—of a PRC invasion and have increased public perceptions about the need and willingness to defend Taiwan democracy. The PRC’s nuclear build-up is also a great cause of concern. This concern is driven not by the threat of nuclear war (given US nuclear superiority) but by the possibility of nuclear blackmail aimed at discouraging Washington from getting involved in a Taiwan confrontation. Taiwanese are concerned about crisis escalation (especially to the nuclear level) but worry more about the PRC deterring the United States. The United States, working closely with allies and other like-minded states, should be more proactive and less reactive in responding to increased PRC aggressive behavior. With the US Department of Defense (DoD) in the lead, the US Government needs to better assess Chinese strengths and weaknesses vis-à-vis Taiwan with an eye toward countering strengths and exploiting weaknesses, while also examining ways to broaden the challenge along multiple fronts in cooperation with various allies and partners. Think tanks can and should supplement this analysis. While continued strong support for Ukraine is important to demonstrate Western resolve and prevent more Russian territorial gains, the PRC remains the “pacing threat” and thus should remain the focus of US national security policy and defense procurement strategy.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Deterrence, Dialogue, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America
46. Foresight and its application in ministries of foreign affairs
- Author:
- Javier Ignacio Santander
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Based on previous research regarding foresight capabilities of ministries of foreign affairs, this work focuses on the modern concept of foresight and of its application to foreign relations. Specifically, it aims to provide a summary of similarities observed in the way in which foreign affairs ministries have developed foresight capacity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Foresight
- Political Geography:
- Argentina and Global Focus
47. Latin America Reacts to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Ariel González Levaggi and Nicolás Albertoni
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- The post-Cold War international order drastically changed after the Russian military intervention in Ukraine. Now Latin America must face an international order marked by competition between great powers, fragmentation, and crisis. Latin American countries' relationships with Russia will bear an additional cost. Although Moscow will lose political, economic, and diplomatic influence, observers should not overlook the Russian push to strengthen its military presence in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Order, Russia-Ukraine War, and Invasion
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Latin America
48. Israel’s Ukraine policy: ‘Right side of history’ vs national interest
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- History has no right side and it does not evolve according to moral imperatives.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel
49. Inside China’s Techno-Security State
- Author:
- Tai Ming Cheung
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)
- Abstract:
- Since coming to power, Xi Jinping has significantly elevated the importance of national security and technological innovation in the country’s overall priorities. He has invested considerable time, effort, and political capital to establish an expansive techno-security state based upon his strategic and ideological vision. This brief examines the five major methods Xi’s administration has undertaken to develop its techno-security state: developing a national security state, innovation-driven development, military strengthening, military-civilian fusion, and economic securitization.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Industrial Policy, International Security, Innovation, Strategic Competition, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Indo-Pacific
50. The Subsequent Return to Sochi Platform: New Opportunities for Sustainable Peace in the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Emin Mammadov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- Following the Russian-broken peace deal in November 10, 2020, in a way towards the sustainability of peace building process and peace situation in the South Caucasus along with the newly emerging politically and economically viable opportunities, the process has been drawing the attention of regional and international stakeholders with multidirectional views and varying degrees of contribution. In the aftermath of Prague meeting on the heels of recent escalations along the Armenia and Azerbaijani border, which revealed to be another willing step by the EU in this vein though French President’s biased approach has been reiterated, activism from the side of Russian media is being observed and the return to Sochi Platform with the mediation the President of the Russian Federation in the trilateral meeting with the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and with the Prime Minister of Republic of Armenia was held in the city of Sochi on October 31 which is considered of exceptional importance to ensure the implementation of the agreements of 9 November 2020, 11 January and 26 November 2021..
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Negotiation, Peace, Sustainability, and Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus
51. Tracking Chinese Aid through China Customs: Darlings and Orphans after the COVID-19 Outbreak
- Author:
- Andreas Fuchs, Lennart Kaplan, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Sebastian Schmidt, Felix Turbanisch, and Feicheng Wang
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, China's mask and vaccine diplomacy have been widely discussed, but the debate relies on a few stylized data points. This article introduces a systematic way to measure China's foreign aid in almost real-time through official customs records of exported aid goods. Our results show significant shifts in China's aid after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, medical aid skyrocketed after the outbreak. It was initially dominated by face masks and other protective equipment and later by vaccines. This came at the expense of non-medical aid, which was 16.3 percent below its pre-pandemic level. Second, China's aid became global, clearly extending beyond the Global South. Third, in the aftermath of the initial outbreak in March 2020, China's aid became less responsive to both recipient need and political friendship, which can be mainly attributed to the rise of aid through non-government sources. However, in the vaccine diplomacy period of 2021, economic needs and political factors have regained their original importance.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, Public Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
52. Will France’s Africa Policy Hold Up?
- Author:
- Corentin Cohen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- During his first term, French President Emmanuel Macron sought to revitalize his country’s diplomatic outreach to countries throughout Africa. Some aspects of this pivot were designed to more directly address the legacy of French colonialism in Francophone countries. He also sensed that the growing stature of non-Western powers like China has given African counterparts greater latitude to pursue ties amid heightened diplomatic competition among a host of other countries both in Europe and elsewhere. In pursuing this strategy, Macron has sought to promote a vision of French diplomacy with Africa through greater foreign aid and more robust people-to-people ties grounded in a spirit of partnerships between equals. While Macron’s efforts have created an opening for renewed relationships, this pivot has not been as seamless as he had hoped. Bureaucratic inertia and stovepiping in French foreign policy circles have at times meant that implementation of these policies has lagged. In certain cases, Macron’s own nationalistic appeals during his recent reelection bid have appeared to undercut his attempts to make amends for France’s troubling colonial history. Meanwhile the French president’s attempts to deepen economic, people-to-people, and security ties in more equitable ways have fallen short of lofty expectations, with past practices proving harder than expected to jettison. For Macron’s ambitions for French relations with African countries to keep their momentum, the president and his team must take an earnest look at what has worked well and what can still be improved.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Agriculture, Diplomacy, Partnerships, Emmanuel Macron, and Degrowth
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and France
53. Paradoxical Africanisation of Libya after 2011. Growing influence of sub- Saharan African government, rebel, diplomatic and criminal actors in the post-Gaddafi state
- Author:
- Jędrzej Czerep
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The 2011 downfall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi marked a tipping point for Libya’s southern neighbours in re-defining their roles on the regional north-south axis. The era of an assertive Libyan foreign policy on Africa came to a halt. Simultaneously, as a consequence of the civil war, multiple African actors, both state and non-state, assumed greater influence inside and over Libya. The country moved from being an exporter of security and insecurity to sub-Saharan Africa, as under Gaddafi, to becoming an importer. Some aspects of this largely unnoticed, multi-dimensional “Africanisation” [1] of Libya are likely to take root. Changes in Libya’s and sub-Saharan African actors’ standings within the regional setting represent a new reality on the ground that has not been contextualised and analysed thoroughly enough. Only when the international actors do so will they be able to adequately navigate and constructively engage social, political and security structures within the Libya- sub-Saharan Africa framework. Thus, this paper aims to answer the following research questions: in which specific north-south security-related phenomena did sub-Saharan African actors assume agency? Are the motivations of the actors involved opportunistic or do they include long-term political goals? Which aspects of “Africanisation” are taking solid roots and could be sustained beyond the period of Libya’s instability? Will this change to the regional order be temporary and reversible? What are the implications for the European Union (EU) policies related to peace, security and governance in Libya? For the research, several interviews with representatives of the regional armed groups, policy advisors, policy-makers and researchers with an insightful understanding of local and regional dynamics have been conducted since 2018, including during field research in Sudan in 2019. Those have been supplemented by a comprehensive review of existing literature on cross-border conflict dynamics in the Libya-Sudan-Chad-Niger borderlands, Libya-sub-Saharan African relations and relevant documents of international organisations. Historical methods focusing on the long-term and comprehensive processes seen within a big picture are being supplemented with an analytical approach seeking logical consequences and formulating predictions out of hard data and a comparative approach, where models, institutions and experiences are put together with more or less adequate processes found elsewhere.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Governance, Leadership, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
54. From a Fragmented Cooperation to an Integrated Approach – The Emergence of the Maghreb and Sahel Region and its Consequences for the European Union
- Author:
- Erzsébet N. Rózsa and Viktor Marsai
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- IEMed/EuroMeSCo
- Abstract:
- The history of the European Union (EU)’s foreign and security policy has been characterised by a continuous develop- ment and a process of adaptation to the realities on the ground and the experi- ences gained. This was manifest in the gradual change from bilateral relations to regional/multilateral structures, from trade through three-basket/three-pillar structured relations to the integrated ap- proach as introduced by the 2016 EU Global Strategy, and the institutionalisa- tion thereof. “Internal and external secu- rity are ever more intertwined: our secu- rity at home entails a parallel interest in peace in our neighbouring and surround- ing regions. It implies a broader interest in preventing conflict, promoting human security, addressing the root causes of instability and working towards a safer world” (EEAS, 2016). The present pa- per argues that, in order to be able to halt the increasingly complex threats fac- ing the EU and maintain its global actor status, the EU should introduce further – sectorial and regional – flexibility, in- cluding, among others, definitions of the widening geographical scope underlying its strategic vision. Therefore, this paper first asks how the EU and its member states should recon- sider their regional approach. How can the EU implement the existing frame- works and/or develop a more effective and adaptive strategy towards its south- ern neighbourhood fitting the new reali- ties on the ground better?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Sahel
55. The EU as a Soft Power Superpower: Why a Green Marshall Plan for the Sahel Is Imperative
- Author:
- Friso Stevens and Dortih Kool
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- This research paper argues that the European Union should roll out a European Green Marshall Plan for ecosystem restoration and local governance in the Sahel region, located between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian savanna to the south. Ecological degradation and related climate change put mounting pressure on the region. In combination with cyclical resource-related conflicts and the presence of terrorist and insurgent groups, this has created an increasingly volatile situation. European security and stability are indirectly at stake. The EU’s ‘Old War’ footing and support for illegitimate, corrupt, and autocratic governments to ‘mow the lawn’ of terrorists and insurgents fails to address and often undermines fundamental human security needs in the region. The authors propose a remodelling of EU foreign and security policy to shift focus from current securitization efforts towards facilitating a green, bottom-up transition that empowers local communities’ ecological stewardship by using their existing knowledge, skills, and dynamics, and Farmer-Managed Natural Regeneration (FMNR). Failure to make these changes toward a human security-centred approach means the EU’s current security and climate-related policies risk further undermining rather than contributing to regional security.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and European Union
- Political Geography:
- Europe
56. A Roundtable on Tizoc Chavez, The Diplomatic Presidency: American Foreign Policy from FDR to George H.W. Bush
- Author:
- Kelly M. McFarland, Jeffrey A. Engel, Silke Zoller, Seth Offenbach, M. Elizabeth Sanders, and Tizoc Chavez
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- Presidential diplomacy has arguably been more front and center in the American public consciousness than usual over the last half decade. President Trump made his personal relationship with a multitude of world leaders a key media talking point. Whether it was his use of Twitter to praise, degrade, or threaten another leader, his bombastic actions at NATO and G-7 summits, his secretive discussions with Vladimir Putin, or his eventual BFF relationship with Kim Jong Un, Trump was always quick to place himself at the helm of his administration’s diplomatic endeavors. Likewise, albeit with a different tone, strategy, and oftentimes different desired outcomes, President Biden has made much of his personal diplomatic skills, and his belief in the need to use them. Candidate Biden touted his foreign policy experience on the campaign trail, noting that he personally knew many world leaders. Biden has used his experience and full Rolodex to try and repair relationships with allies. This approach has been on full display since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This recent atmosphere of personal presidential diplomacy makes the arrival of Tizoc Chavez’s work, The Diplomatic Presidency: American Foreign Policy from FDR to George H. W. Bush, all the more important. Chavez makes it clear that presidential diplomacy as we know it today become part of the office, for better or worse, with Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Most importantly, Chavez demonstrates that regardless of a president’s personal inclinations, personal diplomacy will come into play at points throughout their presidencies due to any one, or a combination, of four consistent structures. In doing so, he adroitly demonstrates how personal diplomacy became an ingrained part of the modern presidency.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
57. A Roundtable on Heather Dichter, Bidding for the 1968 Olympic Games: International Sport’s Cold War Battle with NATO
- Author:
- Jenifer Parks, Anne M. Blaschke, Kevin B. Witherspoon, John Soares, and Richard Kimball
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- When Heather Dichter embarked on writing Bidding for the 1968 Olympic Games, she could not have anticipated how prescient her study would be upon publication. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has found a renewed unity and sense of purpose, and sport has again become a key arena for diplomatic policy. In the 1960s, the focus was on Germany which lay at the heart of a divided Europe, and NATO, the Soviet bloc, and the international sporting community struggled to solve the “German question” of how to handle the existence of two separate German states. Dichter’s book takes the reader through the many intricacies of that question, demonstrating not only how the politics of the Cold War influenced sport, but how international sports in turn influenced Cold War international relations. The “German problem” came to a head when the German Democratic Republic (GDR or East Germany) adopted a new flag and anthem and constructed the Berlin Wall. The erection of the wall, effectively cut off East German athletes from the West, and in response, NATO enacted what amounted to a ban on East German athletes traveling to international competitions in NATO countries. International sports organizations responded by downgrading competitions where East German athletes were excluded or moving competitions from NATO countries to neutral or Warsaw Pact countries, depriving host nations of the soft- power benefits of hosting major sports competitions. Meanwhile, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) deliberated whether to recognize a separate East German Olympic Committee or continue to insist on a unified German team. Once the IOC demanded a guarantee that any city hosting the Olympic Games would allow the free travel of East German athletes to the Games, NATO countries with cities bidding for 1968 Winter and Summer Games, namely the USA, Canada, France, and Norway, pressured the alliance to alter its policies on East German travel. East German officials’ attempts to use sport to legitimize their regime ultimately succeeded, and international sports precipitated the official recognition of a separate German Democratic Republic, which would go on to compete in the 1972 Summer Games in Munich under their own flag and anthem as a fully-fledged member of the Olympic Movement. How this unfolded makes for a fascinating read and a compelling discussion.
- Topic:
- NATO, Cold War, Diplomacy, and Sports
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
58. The Digitalization of EU Public Diplomacy: the pandemic crisis and beyond
- Author:
- Christos A. Frangonikolopoulos and Eleftheria Spiliotakopoulou
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the digitalization of diplomacy and attempts to shed light on the adaptation level of the European Union by presenting the European External Action Service’s activity on social media and selected Public Diplomacy initiatives during the covid-19 pandemic. The main research questions posed in the study are: a) in what ways has the European Union used digital tools to respond to the coronavirus crisis; and b) what are the (recurring) challenges facing the European Union in its efforts to improve its image in a changing world and enhance its role as a leading global actor? The paper concludes that while the European Union is highly competent in terms of digitalization, it does face challenges, which are partly inherent in the sui generis nature of the European Union as an International Organization. These include the need for deeper integration, better coordination between member states, and further dialogue with the Union’s citizens, and must be met if the EU is to enhance trust and build solidarity, as well as a clearer and more solid European identity.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, European Union, Regional Integration, COVID-19, Digitalization, and Adaptation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
59. Adapting to New Realities: Israel’s foreign policy in post-Netanyahu times
- Author:
- Gabriel Haritos
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Israel had to adapt to the revised objectives of the Biden administration in the Middle East and to update its coordination with Russia on the Syria front. The war in Ukraine has reconfigured Israel’s relations with the US and Russia. Israel’s reluctance to provide arms to Ukraine has allowed Russian-Israeli coordination to continue in Syria. The energy crisis triggered by the Russo-Ukrainian war led the US to revise its stance towards Saudi Arabia. The US-Iran talks ground to a halt in Vienna in the light of the growing ties between Iran and Russia. Israel took advantage of the new state of affairs, encouraging the rapprochement between Washington and Riyadh and countering the possibility of the US reopening its consulate in East Jerusalem. In coordination with the US, Israel has promoted the deepening of the Abraham Accords and drawn India into the new Middle East reality through the new I2U2 mechanism. Thanks to carefully managed communication, the Bennett-Lapid government was able to restore diplomatic relations with Turkey while maintaining close cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. It would seem advisable to put in place additional safeguards to maintain the quality of Athens-Nicosia -Jerusalem relations, similar to those which are expected to accompany the revamped relations between Israel and Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, Israel, Greece, and United States of America
60. What is new about the reset between Israel and Turkey?
- Author:
- Selin Nasi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Entering 2021, revising its foreign policy became an ever more pressing necessity for Ankara, in the light of both international and domestic developments. The Turkish government only took steps towards mending its broken ties with countries in the region, including Israel, when the economic cost of its assertive policies began to threaten Erdoğan’s rule. Israeli PM Netanyahu’s defeat in the 2021 elections provided an opportunity for Ankara to step up its diplomatic overtures toward Israel. Bilateral relations may follow a different course than they did in the 2000s, primarily because the basic parameters of the relationship between Israel and Turkey have changed since Israel made new friends in the Mediterranean and the Middle East. The erosion of institutions and the subsequent personalization of Turkish foreign policy render bilateral relations prone to crisis. For Israelis, this is a manageable risk, at least for now, given the benefits Ankara can expect from normalizing relations with Israel. Against the backdrop of an intensifying power competition between the US and China, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, and the current security landscape in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean, opportunities for cooperation between Israel and Turkey remain dependent on the resolution of long-standing issues.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
61. Threats, Instability and Disruption in Europe’s South
- Author:
- Marc Pierini
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Russia’s intervention in Syria in September 2016 turned out to have much broader objectives. The development of air and naval bases provided Moscow with platforms for operations in the Mediterranean and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The delivery of S-400 missile systems to Turkey added another major strategic gain. The European Union is faced by broad challenges on its South, with a sharp decline in rule of law, political instability, and a surge in authoritarianism. Wider phenomena such as climate change, demographic trends, and criminal activities of human trafficking networks add to the challenges. ISIL is still a threat too. Turkey’s choice of disruptive policies has perplexed EU and NATO leaders in the recent past. Tensions with the EU have risen due to challenges to maritime boundaries and sovereignty of Cyprus and Greece. Although largely a consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union’s major foreign policy initiatives in 2022 have marked a watershed moment and constitute a useful precedent for the Union’s policies with third countries. In the near future, the EU will have to invent a new format, distinct from accession, for its relationship with the countries of ‘Wider Europe’ and to use its now diversified ‘foreign policy toolbox’ in a coherent and effective fashion.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, European Union, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Southern Europe
62. Turkey in Afghanistan: more than one reason to stay
- Author:
- Ekrem Eddy Güzeldere
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Despite a long history of bilateral contacts, Turkey’s most intensive commitment in Afghanistan only started in 2001 with the NATO mission. A first friendship treaty was signed back in 1921; the first official foreign visit to the Republic of Turkey was made in 1928 by King Amanullah of Afghanistan. Turkey’s engagement in South Asia started with Afghanistan but has recently been Pakistan-centred. As the only majority-Muslim NATO country, Turkey was viewed more positively by the Afghan population and the Taliban than other NATO member states. Ankara has been reaching out to the Taliban since summer 2021. However, the Taliban have not met Turkish demands for a more inclusive government, or in relation to girls’ education. Turkey has become a haven for non-Taliban (opposition) Afghans, who are told not to voice their criticism of the Taliban. There are four main motivations for Turkey’s engagement in Afghanistan: 1) improving relations with the US; 2) stabilizing Afghanistan to prevent migrant flows; 3) getting a foothold in the geopolitics of the region; 4) benefitting from the economic potential. Kabul international airport is important both for the Taliban and for Turkey. For the Taliban, it is their window to the world; for Turkey, it is an opportunity to profit economically and to boost its international status. In Afghanistan, Turkey’s soft power approach includes TIKA (Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency), the Maarif schools, and the Yunus Emre Institute. These institutions have remained operational. In 2020, Afghanistan received the third largest amount of Turkish developmental aid, amounting to 36.5 million USD. Even if the world, and Turkey, are currently focused on Ukraine, Afghanistan will continue to occupy an important place in Turkey’s regional foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Taliban, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Turkey, and Middle East
63. EU-Africa relations ahead of the EU-AU Summit: Taking stock, looking forward
- Author:
- Pavlos Petidis
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The European Union’s (EU) development policy is a broad field of activity that has undergone multiple significant modifications in both its definitions and its goals. The external relations of the European Union have long included development policy, resulting in an asymmetrical relationship with Africa. Since the turn of the century, the scope of the EU-Africa relationship has expanded to cover new challenges including climate change, terrorism, trade liberalization, and migration. EU development policies reveal a long-term shift in EU development priorities away from fundamental development goals and toward a wider array of ambitions, actors, and methodologies. Identifying and prioritizing the International Organizations on which it and its member states should best focus their diplomatic and political capital is a challenge. Given the political clout and relevance of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for the continent’s economic development, the EU can concentrate its efforts on encouraging its implementation by deepening its Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs). Working together to strengthen multilateralism and support the implementation of the European Green Deal and the AfCFTA form the axis of a new articulated African agency.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Diplomacy, Migration, Terrorism, European Union, Partnerships, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
64. Rethinking the Dutch position towards the Western Balkans in the new security environment in Europe
- Author:
- Arlinda Rrustemi, Luka Steric, and Marko Drajic
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- The main goal of this paper is to present lessons learned, and present policy recommendations regarding the EU integration policy in Western Balkans given the recent events in 2022. In addition, a deeper understanding of the Dutch foreign and security policy is also provided, since the Netherlands has rejected plans for the EU’s further expansion. The year 2022 brought many political, legal, and security changes to Europe. Most importantly, events which had been considered unthinkable for decades have occurred. On February 24th, Russia commenced a fullscale military invasion of Ukraine, conducting attacks that have caused 7,061civilian deaths, while some sources report up 21,000 deaths only in Mariupol, indiscriminate attacks in violation of the laws of war that may amount to war crimes, and more than five million refugees. The European response was unified and timely. A clear willingness to stand by the side of Ukraine has been shown and sanctions are enforced against Russia by all EU member states (MS), while providing aid in various forms. An uptick in polarization, populism and far right sentiment can be observed in Victor Orban’s success in the Hungarian April Elections and in Marine le Pen’s persisting into the second round of the French Presidential election. Not only the right political spectrum is gaining traction but also the left. The Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša has been defeated by a left wing party, the Freedom Movement, founded a year ago. In addition, European governments that are key to stability and peace of the Western Balkans region are experiencing drastic political changes. The new German government that succeeded Angela Merkel’s cabinet after one and a half decade is posing new foreign and security policy questions. Macron suggested an end to the enlargement agenda as we know it, proposing the political European community as an alternative. Tensions in terms of hate and acts of violence have been reported in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo, raising further questions about the future of the Western Balkans in Europe. War in the continent posed a threat to the credibility and legitimacy of the European project. It questions European values and is an existential threat to the integration process, and European security. Ursula von der Leyen offered a speedy response to Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union, for which Ukraine applied in times of conflict. This is the first time in history that a nation during conflict applies for EU membership. The Ukrainian application and the war have resulted in many uncertainties for Europe. This raises questions surrounding the accession processes of other countries in the Western Balkans region, such as Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo. An analysis of the EU integration policy in the Western Balkans region is therefore crucial given the recent events. Progress towards EU integration has varied among countries in the Western Balkans region. The closest to the EU integration are Montenegro and Serbia with many chapters open. North Macedonia and Albania are waiting to start formal negotiations. Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina are farthest removed due to their internally and externally driven fragilities. The main goal of the report is to question the current approach while providing a fresh perspective on the EU’s integration policy, given the recent security and political events. In addition, a deeper understanding of the Dutch foreign and security policy is also provided, since the Netherlands has rejected plans for the EU’s further expansion. The following sections outline Dutch foreign policy, followed by recent political, security and legal developments in the Western Balkans region. The final section outlines lessons learned, and present policy recommendations regarding the EU integration policy in Western Balkans given the recent events in 2022.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Integration
- Political Geography:
- Europe
65. Centrality and Community: ASEAN in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
- Author:
- Soo Yeon Kim
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) role in the formation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement. The RCEP project proceeded as trade governance has shifted from the multilateral trade regime under the World Trade Organization to free trade agreements and where the geopolitics of Asia has cast a shadow on the progress of regional integration efforts. The analysis in this paper focuses on ASEAN centrality, both as a concept and practice, in influencing the launch and progress of RCEP. Conceptually, ASEAN centrality is about the capacity of the 10-member group to help launch negotiations for the RCEP agreement and to shape its provisions for governing trade. In practice, the RCEP agreement consolidates and significantly unravels the numerous overlapping trade agreements between ASEAN, 38 in all between individual ASEAN members and its five RCEP partners, Australia, China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and New Zealand. The paper also examines the relationship between the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and RCEP. RCEP provides for further tariff liberalisation between ASEAN members and its five RCEP partners and thus expands the zone of preferential treatment for goods exported from ASEAN and other RCEP members. RCEP also consolidates rules of origin requirements under one agreement, providing for diagonal cumulation and common rules of cumulation for agreement partners. The RCEP provisions can greatly facilitate production and trade along regional supply chains, thus accelerating the progress of the AEC as a single market and production base. Moving forwards, RCEP and ASEAN’s place in it, is likely to be shaped by challenges and opportunities from the Comprehensive and Progressive Transpacific Partnership and the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) initiative. The ASEAN members with overlapping membership in the IPEF and RCEP will be pivotal in determining areas of cooperation. Regional integration will thus continue to be shaped by ASEAN centrality, and its progress will shape the ASEAN community.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
66. Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Economic Backgrounds of ASEAN and Its Dialogue Partners
- Author:
- Keita Oikawa, Fusanori Iwasaki, and Shujiro Urata
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- We overview the economic backgrounds of the countries participating in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations and two Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Dialogue Partners – the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) – to understand their economic relationships before the signing of the RCEP and their economic interests in the RCEP. We discover that the 16 countries participating in RCEP negotiations vary in terms of economic size, income level, growth pattern, share of trade in the economy, and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Additionally, both lower- and higher-income ASEAN Member States (AMS) have received a large amount of FDI, in contrast to Japan and the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea), which have seen more FDI outflows from their countries than inflows. In terms of bilateral FDI inflows and outflows, as a centre for regional FDI, Singapore attracts FDI from developed countries (including the US and the EU) and reinvests it in India and other AMS. As an FDI hub, Singapore promotes liberalised regional markets to attract advanced country investors. By examining bilateral trade relationships, we find that as the centre of manufacturing in the world, ASEAN and China have participated in international production networks that also include Japan and Korea since 2000. Japan and Korea have maintained competitiveness in intermediate goods in the region’s production networks, while China notably exports final products to the US and the EU. Amongst the 16 countries participating in RCEP negotiations, India has not had a significant presence in the production networks. Indeed, India has expanded its bilateral trade deficit with China, which probably caused India to withdraw from RCEP negotiations to protect its manufacturing industry. Simulation results of the impacts of the RCEP, using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (Global Trade Analysis Project model), show that the countries participating in RCEP negotiations – particularly the less developed AMS – would gain greatly from lowering services trade costs and investment liberalisation. India would also gain significantly from the RCEP. In contrast, countries not participating in RCEP negotiations (the US and the EU) would experience small negative impacts of the RCEP through trade diversion effects.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
67. How Preferential are RCEP Tariffs?
- Author:
- Kazunobu Hayakawa
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This study discusses the extent to which the tariffs provided in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) are preferential. RCEP does not necessarily adopt a common concession rule in tariffs, and the speed and depth of tariff reduction/elimination also differ by country. We show that RCEP tariffs become the best choice in trading some specific products with some specific countries in some specific years. Furthermore, there are some specific cases where the use of RCEP tariffs becomes beneficial even if RCEP tariffs are not lower. Therefore, we demonstrate that RCEP tariffs are beneficial in specific types of supply chains. In short, this study aims to enhance our comprehensive understanding of how preferential RCEP tariffs are compared with other types of available tariffs.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Tariffs, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
68. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and Europe: Impact and Implications
- Author:
- Haans Gunther Hilpert
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- In the first 2 decades of the millennium, European Union (EU) trade policy underwent historic changes, amongst them an explicit pivot to Asia. Along with continued firm support of the rules-based World Trade Organization (WTO)-centred multilateral trading system, important new directions in the EU’s trade policy included a turn to competitive bilateralism, a strong focus on values, an ambition to protect and to promote European trade standards as well as the politicisation of trade policy. Asia’s outwards looking economic growth, the increasing trade interdependence in Asia as well as the various bilateral and multilateral trade agreements in the region, notably amongst them the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), attracted the EU’s attention, and have helped cause and drive these changes. There was no particular Asian influence on the EU’s own regionalisation, however. Meanwhile, trade and investment relations between Europe and Asia have intensified greatly over this period. But the EU has been slow and late to formulate a comprehensive strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. In spite of some notable successes, the EU’s trade policy remains fragmented with differentiated approaches for each trading partner. Opinions on the RCEP’s relevance and importance for Europe are divided. RCEP sceptics point to the overall shallow nature of the agreement. RCEP optimists emphasise the future potential of trade and investment integration within the newly established RCEP economic area and warn of the discriminatory effects for Europe’s economy and businesses. So, Europe’s business will have to invest in the new RCEP free trade zone to overcome trade diversion risks and to benefit from the RCEP market integration. More worrying from Europe’s perspective is RCEP’s potentially negative policy impacts: a relative loss in the EU’s trading power, the risk of Europe being sidelined in the make-up of future trade rules, and RCEP’s future impact on rules based multilateralism and the WTO. The EU has various trade policy options with regard to the Indo-Pacific trade area and RCEP in particular. The most promising options include the conclusion of free trade agreements with as many RCEP member countries as possible, with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as a group (as a region-to-region agreement), with other trading partners (from the Indo-Pacific or from other world regions), or with the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Transpacific Partnership area.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
69. The Story of RCEP: History, Negotiations, Structure, and Future Directions
- Author:
- Aladdin D. Rillo, Anna Maria Rosario D. Robeniol, and Salvador Buban
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper is about the story of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), including the history, dynamics of negotiations, and structure of this multilateral framework. Issues related to ASEAN centrality, sensitivities of negotiations, and other challenges are also highlighted and analysed. Nearly a decade in the making, RCEP represents a significant achievement for the region. As an ASEAN-led process, RCEP supports not only the region’s market integration but as well as ASEAN’s economic relations with the rest of the world, particularly with the 5 RCEP FTA Partners. Beyond the impact of RCEP in supporting the multilateral trading system, it is also intended to address the current challenges in the region, including the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. Thus, the narrative of RCEP provides a comprehensive overview of, and considers the potential implications for, trade in the region; for economic integration, and for the future of trade policy.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
70. Comparison of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Other Free Trade Agreements (FTAs)
- Author:
- Innwon Park
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This study evaluates the desirability of RCEP by comparing it with other mega-lateral FTAs. Evaluating the member-specific scale effects of the FTAs, we find that RCEP will generate significantly larger gains compared with the CPTPP. Evaluation of the provision-specific depth effects of RCEP suggests the possibility of positive gains but these gains may not be significant compared with those derived from the CPTPP. The existing CGE model analyses reveal that RCEP will generate greater gains than the CPTPP. RCEP will be more desirable for China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea and the estimated gains for ASEAN will notably increase as the model explicitly specifies the diagonal ROO cumulation scheme. Considering the sequence of implementing FTAs, we find that the CPTPP will generate greater gains for dual members, but the marginal gains enjoyed by RCEP members will not be substantial.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Free Trade, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
71. Australia’s Interests in East Asia’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
- Author:
- Shiro Armstrong
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement was seen as important for Australia economically and politically from its inception. RCEP economies account for roughly two-thirds of Australia’s total trade and being part of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led initiative that progressed broader East Asian economic integration was consistent with the structure of Australia’s trade interests and with Australia’s support for the multilateral trading system. Australia has a track record of pursuing regional cooperation that supports multilateral trade and for supporting regional integration that is outward oriented. RCEP became more important economically, politically, and strategically throughout its negotiations. It furthered East Asian economic integration that avoided fragmentation but also to entrench the ASEAN Economic Community project. Concluding RCEP took on greater importance and urgency as a ballast against the rising protectionism globally in the latter half of 2010. The ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Area (AANZFTA) included an economic cooperation agenda focused on capacity building that was seen as a success for its members and shaped Australia’s approach and support towards economic cooperation being a pillar of RCEP. Negotiations for RCEP were chaired and led by Indonesia and ASEAN. Australia played a proactive role in pushing for high standards – credible market access commitments and new rules – in negotiations. Australia was one of the RCEP member countries that was also negotiating the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in parallel. The interest in the TPP was to keep the United States productively engaged in the region and to further rule-making and liberalisation amongst the TPP members. Having overlapping membership between the TPP and RCEP would mean that there was less chance of significant divergence or inconsistencies between them, although the approach differed. The deterioration of Australia’s economic and political relationship with China makes the RCEP framework potentially more important for facilitating the rebuilding of trust and confidence.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia, Australia, and ASEAN
72. Heyday of Asian Regionalism? The Implications of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership for the United States
- Author:
- Mireya Solís
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the implications of the entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) for the United States (US). Traditionally, trade policy has been central to the United States’ aim to position itself as a Pacific power and architect of the evolving regional economic architecture. Over the years, however, US trade strategy has evolved in distinct ways: from an emphasis on bilateral trade negotiations and open regionalism (in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation [APEC] forum) to the pursuit of a high-standard transregional trade agreement (in the Trans-Pacific Partnership [TPP]); and more recently under the Trump administration the pursuit of unilateralism and the resort to tariffs as a form of leverage vis-à-vis competitors (China) and partners (allies in Europe and Asia) alike. When the RCEP negotiations launched, there was little concern in US policymaking circles that the emerging trade grouping in Asia could be disadvantageous for the US given that the TPP project was an effective vehicle to advance the US vision for quality economic integration and to cement its position in the dynamic Asian region. However, the US withdrawal from the TPP and the successful conclusion of the RCEP talks (even with the absence of India) have changed that calculus. This paper identifies three main implications of RCEP for the United States at this juncture: growing marginalisation from intra-Asian trade, diminished rulemaking capabilities as alternative standards disseminate widely in the region, and lessened diplomatic clout as the United States struggles to incorporate trade liberalisation into its Asia policy. A fourth possible consequence – a renewed interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive for Trans-Pacific Partnership – has not materialised. Instead, the Biden administration is developing an Indo-Pacific Economic Framework that will not include market access negotiations but will focus instead on issues such as supply chain resilience, infrastructure, and the digital economy. The ability of the United States to offer a compelling plan of economic engagement with the region is in question, raising the spectre of marginalisation whilst Asian regionalism makes strides.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Economic Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North America, United States of America, and ASEAN
73. How Religious Diplomacy and Pan-Islamic Organizations Can Help Stabilize Afghanistan
- Author:
- Hussam R. Ahmed
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
- Abstract:
- The United States’ withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 was followed by a surprisingly quick takeover by the Taliban, the predominantly Pashtun, Islamic fundamentalist group that had initially been ousted in 2001. Their triumphant return to power 20 years has raised numerous questions about what led to the US and Western failure in Afghanistan, the implications for regional and global security, and the policy options now available to Europe and the United States. As of now, the West has no plans to engage with the Taliban government, but continued inaction could result in dire consequences for Afghan citizens as well as for Western interests at large. A severe humanitarian crisis has gripped Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, pushing nearly 20 million people to the verge of famine. The United Nations Development Programme fears Afghanistan will face near “universal poverty” by the end of 2022 with 97 percent of the population living below the international poverty line. There is also a growing threat that a Taliban regime could enable terrorist organizations to operate more openly on Afghan soil, paving the way for new, aggravated threats to regional and global security. The withdrawal has also compelled European to re-evaluate their partnership with the United States on Afghanistan and to fear that the fallout from the Taliban’s resurgence will be most severe for Europe, including more immediately with social and economic costs of dealing with more refugees. There is widespread agreement in the West that engagement in Afghanistan needs to continue but not the way it was done in the past. To explore what that reimagining Western engagement can look like, this paper presents an analysis of a foreign policy approach that has largely remained absent from the discussion: religious diplomacy. This form of Track Two diplomacy is deeply rooted in religious texts, practices, and traditions, and it is oriented toward the active role of faith leaders in politics, conflict resolution, and peace-building. In Afghanistan, where the sociocultural and political realities have historically remained deeply intertwined with it, an insufficient understanding of religion has led some to argue this was a major blind spot in the Western foreign policy approach. There is a need to revisit religion’s centrality to the war and how religious diplomacy offers an underappreciated peace-building framework that can be operationalized through faith-based organizations that share existing relationships with Afghanistan, a common religious language and cultural affinities with its people, and moral capital to draw from. The Organization of Islamic Cooperation and the Muslim World League, in particular, are two highly influential pan-Islamic nongovernmental organizations, that have leveraged their religious legitimacy and moderate interpretations of Islamic teachings to provide a counter narrative to radical ideas that promote violent extremism, to facilitate dialogue, to mediate conflicts, and to initiate peace-building in previous and ongoing conflicts in the Muslim world. Drawing on their experience, this paper argues that creative religious diplomacy through them can be an effective policy option for the Europe and the United States for a sustainable future engagement in Afghanistan. The paper therefore offers recommendations that flesh out the form this could take.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Religion, Political stability, Domestic Politics, Society, and Community-based Organizations
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan and South Asia
74. South Korea's Public Diplomacy during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Seeking Status as an Authority in Global Governance
- Author:
- Kadir Ayhan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic caught almost all countries unprepared. Some countries, including South Korea (hereafter Korea), managed to deal with the pandemic relatively more successfully than others and had a proactive global posture from early on, including providing aid, and public diplomacy campaigns. In this paper, I explore Korea’s COVID-19-related public diplomacy activities and its aims. I analyze Korea’s COVID-19 humanitarian aid trends, its policy documents, and the tweets related to the pandemic posted by the country’s official public diplomacy account. I find that the pandemic catalyzed what Korea had already been aiming to do, which is improve its global status to be among top authorities across various issue-areas. Due to the nature of the pandemic, Korea’s public diplomacy has been themed around international cooperation and solidarity. I suggest that Korea should hold onto its international cooperation emphasis on public diplomacy, to form the basis for its status-seeking as an authority in global governance in the post-pandemic era.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Domestic Policy, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Global Focus
75. America, You Better Believe That Africa Matters
- Author:
- Charles Ray
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- American Diplomacy
- Abstract:
- In the minds of most Americans and Europeans, the continent of Africa has long been seen as peripheral to world affairs, looked at either as a source of natural resources ripe for extraction or a place of poverty and violence requiring massive amounts of aid. This is a shortsighted and distorted view of a diverse continent and is long overdue for a reset. The truth is that Africa is home to some of the planet’s most strategic minerals and other resources, and that natural and manmade disasters plague the continent. It is far more diverse and dynamic than popular culture, mainstream media, and even many foreign policy makers portray it. For a lot of reasons, some of them existential, it is far from peripheral; it matters.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Africa and United States of America
76. Everything Counts: Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe
- Author:
- Miles A. Pomper, William Alberque, Marshall L. Brown Jr., William M. Moon, and Nikolai Sokov
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration insisted in arms control talks with Russia that a follow-on agreement to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) should cover all nuclear weapons and that such an agreement should focus on the nuclear warheads themselves. This would represent a significant change from previous agreements, which focused on delivery vehicles, such as missiles. The United States has been particularly interested in potential limits on nonstrategic nuclear warheads (NSNW). Such weapons have never been subject to an arms control agreement. Because Russia possesses an advantage in the number of such weapons, the US Senate has insisted that negotiators include them in a future agreement, making their inclusion necessary if such an accord is to win Senate approval and ultimately be ratified by Washington. In the wake of Russian nuclear threats in the Ukraine conflict, such demands can only be expected to grow if and when US and Russian negotiators return to the negotiating table.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, North America, and United States of America
77. Russian-Turkish Relations and Implications for U.S. Strategy and Operations
- Author:
- Hanna Notte and Chen Kane
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia and Turkey’s complex relationship has significant implications for U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) strategic interests. The two states cooperate, deconflict, and compete in multiple theatres within Turkey’s extended neighborhood, which straddles United States Africa Command (USAFRICOM), United States Central Command (USCENTCOM), and United States European Command (USEUCOM) areas of responsibility (AORs). 1 Their bilateral strategic trade has created mutual dependencies and vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, such as natural gas, nuclear energy, and tourism. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has many implications for the Russia-Turkey relationship. While engaging actively with Russia and stoking fears that its commercial ties with Moscow could serve Russia’s evasion of Western sanctions, Turkey has also provided TB2 Bayraktar drones to Ukraine, invoked the Montreux Convention, and offered itself as a mediator on various operational issues in the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result of these steps, Turkey’s leverage over both Russia and NATO allies has increased since February 2022. From a U.S. perspective, the implications have been mixed as Turkey has translated its increased leverage into foreign policy steps that threaten to undermine U.S. interests and NATO cohesion. Turkey remains of significant importance to the United States in enabling its interests in the three aforementioned AORs, preventing third actors like China and Iran from operating in the “seams,” and generating an enhanced, unified, and credible NATO capability and capacity in response to Russian aggression. It follows that Turkey’s interplay with Russia in its extended neighborhood has far-reaching implications for the United States and NATO. This study aims to shed light on this relationship, its likely trajectory over the coming decade, its implications for U.S. strategic interests, and how the United States and NATO might shape the Russia- Turkey interplay to their advantage.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, North America, and United States of America
78. The African-France Summit and an Overview of its Recommendations Since 1973
- Author:
- Fabien Sundjo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Nkafu Policy Institute
- Abstract:
- France’s earliest profit-making involvement in Africa in the business of buying and transporting slaves started in the 17th century when the local Indian population proved unable to work in plantations in America compared to black Africans. France’s interest in Africa reached its zenith in the 19th and early 20th centuries when France acquired a gigantic African empire. Though several reasons could explain the scramble for Africa by France, we present herein the three most important. First, the defeat of France in the 1870 Prussian war in which she lost influence and a reduction in her international ego. Second, the anxiety to implement Colbert’s mercantilist philosophy emphasized that any rising industrial power required to have both the source of raw materials and market extension under her control. Third and finally, as Europeans scrambled for Africa, France feared their traditional enemies could annex a remarkable share of the territory. Hence, from the outset, it was not the financial gains that many thoughts motivated France’s involvement in Africa but politics and national ego. It will only be later that France saw Africa as a cheap source of military manpower that could help balance demographic stagnation in France. This perception will later be reinforced by her experience in the two World wars. In this light, Iliffe (2007) holds that French colonial policy was characterized by the exploitation of rich resources from Africa. In the midst of all these benefits from colonization in Africa, Charles de Gaulle‘s decision to retain influence in Africa after decolonization in 1960 was driven by the need to persist with these benefits under neo-colonization. According to Abdurrahim (2014), in Africa, France uses a realist foreign policy in which states shape their foreign policies based on their national interests. To facilitate the implementation of this realist foreign policy, France will design the Franco-African summit that will cement France’s influence in her former colonies to date. Were France’s policies put in place through the Franco-African summits shaped to benefit France solely? This paper aims to present the Franco-African Summit and carry out a stocktake of France’s commitments through recommendations from the Franco-African Summit.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and France
79. Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam. The Law, History, Politics and Geopolitics behind Africa’s Largest Hydropower Project
- Author:
- Francesca Caruso
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Since 2011, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has provoked a diplomatic crisis between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, adding fuel to the already combustible geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Despite its technical aspects, the GERD dispute has over time become a multi-layered geopolitical crisis where a plethora of actors and dynamics have been influencing the ongoing negotiations. Protagonists are no longer only Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan, and the resolution of the crisis is now dependent on factors beyond technical solutions. Moreover, the crisis seems to have become an instrument that the three countries are using to deal with issues of national legitimacy, territorial disputes and regional balance. However, while instrumentalisation can be politically expedient in the short term, all parties have an interest an equitable and regionally based, inclusive and cooperative agreement. In order to understand how multilateral organisations can contribute to the finding of an equitable and reasonable solution, a multi-layered analysis – on local, national and regional dynamics – needs to identify the main drivers for Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, History, Water, Infrastructure, Law, Geopolitics, Dams, Conflict Management, and Hydropower
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, and Egypt
80. Egypt’s Decade of Water Woes
- Author:
- Hafsa Halawa
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- As the Nile River dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan enters a new decade, this paper seeks to map out the Egyptian perspective of the dispute, through an outline of the interventions made, opportunities lost, and challenges posed by the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Looking at Egypt’s domestic water security challenges, regional relationships and the tripartite process, and the role and influence of external actors, the paper describes a decade of diplomatic stagnation as entrenched nationalism creates forms of immovable policy on the River Nile.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Natural Resources, Water, Dams, and Disputes
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Egypt
81. The Implications of the Ukraine War for Israel
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- For Israel, this is evidence that its self-reliance doctrine must be nourished with no illusions about foreign support in times of crisis. Moreover, Turkey probably sees NATO more positively since it borders Russia, pushing Ankara toward the West.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel
82. Vienna: A return to Ben-Gurion’s WW2 Dual Strategy?
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is time to revive the spirit of Ben-Gurion’s famous dictum from the days of WWII regarding the stance toward the British: “We will fight the war as if there were no White Paper, and we will fight the White Paper as if there were no war.” This makes sense concerning Israel’s dilemma towards the US in the context of the renewal of the JCPOA.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
83. The “New Uzbekistan”: Turkey’s New Partner in the Pan-Turkist Organization of Turkic States
- Author:
- Hay Eytan Cohan Yanaroack
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Tashkent’s increasingly critical approach toward Russia and its deepening role in the Organization of Turkic States has positioned the country as Ankara’s most important bridgehead in Central Asia.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Turkey
84. The Roots of Israel’s Diplomatic Revolution
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The latest diplomatic moves demonstrate that despite recent events in Jerusalem, Israel has thwarted the Palestinian plan to force it into diplomatic isolation.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
85. The differences between Western and non-Western US allies in the Ukraine war
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- For mid-level regional powers, avoiding non-essential friction with a major power like Russia is seen as an imperative, particularly in a situation where consistent support from their US patron is by no means a given.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America
86. Biden, Israel, and China: Making a Difficult Threesome Work
- Author:
- Steven R. David
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is wrong to expect Israel, a middle-level economy, to decouple from China when far wealthier countries (including the United States) show no signs of following suit. Israeli companies should not be subject to restrictions not placed on companies elsewhere, including the United States itself.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America
87. The Meeting Between Assad and Khameini: What was on the Table?
- Author:
- Marta Furlan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Syrian President Bashar al-Assad might have decided to cement his friendship with Tehran, fearing that Moscow’s capacity to invest in Syria’s reconstruction would be negatively affected. Assad may also try to play Iran against its Gulf rivals to draw resources from both.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
88. Asking for Too Much: Will Hezbollah Prevent a Reasonable Compromise in the Lebanon-Israel Maritime Dispute?
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The recurrent pattern of asking for more and more – reminiscent of the folk tale about the fisherman’s greedy wife – has made a mockery of the ongoing attempt to diplomatically resolve the Israeli-Lebanese EEZ dispute. The negotiations have continued for years, and some in Lebanon understand the need for a negotiated outcome: but Hezbollah might yet again scuttle the deal.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Maritime, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
89. Connecting Strategic Dots: Biden’s Visit to the Middle East
- Author:
- Eytan Gilboa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- During Biden’s upcoming visit, he plans to form a regional defense alliance at a regional conference in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The coalition will include the United States, Israel, and a host of Arab countries, including Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and Iraq. In this sense, Biden continues Trump’s policy of the Abraham Accords.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Hegemony, Leadership, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Israel, Saudi Arabia, North America, Egypt, Jordan, and United States of America
90. What is the agenda for the Eastern Mediterranean?
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A more coherent common foreign policy agenda is needed to enhance the strategic significance of the Athens-Jerusalem-Nicosia partnership.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and Mediterranean
91. Drug Policy in Colombia: The Road to a Just Regulation
- Author:
- Global Commission On Drug Policy
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Commission On Drug Policy
- Abstract:
- The position paper “Drug Policy in Colombia – The Road to a Just Regulation" presents the dynamics which have maintained Colombia hostage as the longest running, and most evident examples, of failed prohibitionist drug policies. The position paper explores the context leading to the 2016 Peace Agreement, as well as the shifts in political power that resulted in uneven and unsuccessful implementation efforts of the Agreement. It puts forward recommendations to support effective and humane drug policy reforms that enhance peace, health, security and development in Colombia.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Law Enforcement, Regulation, and Drugs
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
92. Egypt as the Cornerstone of the New Regional Security Architecture
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The stability and orientation of the region’s most populous country, Egypt, remain crucial components of the newly emerging regional security architecture and its new strategic alignments.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Egypt, and MENA
93. A New Middle East
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Changing Israel’s relationship with Arab countries is vital for its regional legitimacy, but it is also in the best interests of the Arab world. Sunni Arab countries want relations with Israel to create a safer region and better tools to deal with the complex reality they face after the “Arab Spring,” in the face of Iranian aggression and American hesitancy.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Religion, and Arab Spring
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
94. Understanding Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution delusion
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The idea that a Jewish and a Palestinian state will coexist peacefully is widespread in contemporary academic and political circles but ignores the reality on the ground.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Nation Building
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
95. Israel Caves to Bad Maritime Deal
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- We should not forget that moderate Arab states are watching Israeli behavior, especially in the Gulf. Without determined and effective action, Israel’s allies in the region, wary of American withdrawal and fearful of Iran, will be reluctant to rely on Israel and could later move closer to Tehran.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
96. Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal Demonstrates Israeli Weakness
- Author:
- Omer Dostri
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It is unclear whether endorsing a lousy agreement is preferable to a violent confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel should not be afraid of military conflict.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Maritime, Hezbollah, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
97. The Maritime Border Agreement with Lebanon
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The agreement with Lebanon over the maritime border has several implications and needs to be examined from different angles.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, Conflict, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
98. The Libyan EEZ Challenge: Israel Should Reject Turkey’s Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The delineation of the Libyan and Turkish Exclusive Economic Zones was and remains essential not only for Israel and Egypt but also for others in the region who seek to curtail Erdogan’s ambitions and shore up Egypt’s economic and political stability.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean
99. The New Government Should Not Abandon Jerusalem
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Coalition negotiations on forming the new government demonstrate that preserving Israel’s capital is a low priority. It is a mistake.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, State Building, Strategic Interests, and Territory
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
100. Feminist Perspectives on Climate Diplomacy
- Author:
- Susan Harris Rimmer, Bridget Lewis, Rowena Maguire, Esther Onyango, and Maria Tanyag
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
- Abstract:
- This is the critical decade for climate action and all foreign policy interventions will be judged against this global challenge. It’s well established that Australia’s reticence to act on climate change is undermining our diplomatic relationships, particular with our near neighbours in the Pacific. As a collective action problem, climate change requires nations to look beyond their own narrowly defined interests and seek collective global solutions. Feminist foreign policy provides a lens through which we can see climate action as a shared priority, a human security issue, and one which is central to Australia’s relationships with the region. Additionally as a framework which emphasises the need for policy coherence between domestic and international issues, feminist foreign policy highlights the need for Australia to take domestic action on climate change in order to fulfil our international role. Critically, the impacts of climate change are gendered, and so the solutions must be informed by rigorous gender analysis. Feminist foreign policy, with its focus on understanding and transforming the systemic drivers of inequality and marginalization, can further our understanding of the historical contributions of nations to climate change and rebalance of the scales towards the most marginalized who face the greatest impacts.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, and Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Australia