Content Type: Working Paper / Publication Year: within 10 Years and within 25 Years / Topic: Conflict Resolution

1. Ending the War in Sudan will be Difficult

Author:: Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Fighting in Sudan between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been ongoing since 15 April. The clashes are mainly taking place in the capital, Khartoum, and in the Darfur region, causing the destruction of infrastructure, a humanitarian disaster, and the displacement of the population. Although neither side has achieved military superiority or the support of the population, they are determined to continue fighting until the opponent is eliminated, which makes efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire difficult. In the longer term, international support for a political solution to the crisis should aim to restore civilian control of the state.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

2. The Ethnic Chapter of Colombia’s Peace Agreement Five Years On: An Independent Assessment

Author:: Helmer Eduardo Quiñones Mendoza
Publication Date:: 07-2022
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:: In 2016, the Colombian Peace Agreement included an Ethnic Chapter designed to ensure the representation of and oversight by indigenous and Afro-Colombian social organizations in the implementation process. This recognition of ethnic rights as a cross-cutting agenda set a precedent among international peace-building processes. But failures in the implementation have meant that armed conflict and systematic violence against ethnic peoples and their territories have raged on. In this Accountability Note, Helmer Eduardo Quiñones Mendoza presents an assessment of the implementation of the Ethnic Chapter of the peace agreement. The assessment was carried out by the advisory team to the High-Level Forum with Ethnic Peoples (IEANPE), the main mechanism for monitoring and promoting the Ethnic Chapter, and presented to the Colombian government in 2021. Together with a preface by Armando Wouriyú Valbuena (Secretary of the Ethnic Commission, Technical Secretary of the IEANPE, and distinguished indigenous leader), an introduction by Jonathan Fox (ARC Director), and an afterword by Gimena Sánchez-Garzoli (Washington Office on Latin America), this note assesses implementation against each of the agreement’s six pillars, identifies entry points for improvement, and lays out an agenda for building a new future for Colombia’s ethnic minorities by fully implementing the Ethnic Chapter of the 2016 agreement.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, Minorities, Ethnicity, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

3. Greece, Cyprus, and the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process

Author:: Gabriel Mitchell
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: For decades, the US operated as the central mediator between Israel and the Palestinians. However, after decades of stalled negotiations, it is likely that future peacemaking efforts will be multilateral, reliant on an orchestra of international actors who can support specific processes that, in concert, could encourage Israelis and Palestinians to reapproach one another. This piece examines the role of Greece and Cyprus, two regional actors whose strategic relationship with Israel has strengthened over the last decade, could help advance peace. Though secondary players in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there are concrete ways that both states – if invited by the central parties – could contribute to a more conducive environment for cooperation and dialogue.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, International Affairs, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Greece, Palestine, and Cyprus

4. Landmines: The Local Effects of Demining

Author:: Mounu Prem, Miguel E. Purroy, and Juan Vargas
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: Anti-personnel landmines are one of the main causes of civilian victimization in conflict-affected areas and a significant obstacle for post-war reconstruction. Demining campaigns are therefore a promising policy instrument to promote long-term development. We argue that the economic and social effects of demining are not unambiguously positive. Demining may have unintended negative consequences if it takes place while conflicts are ongoing, or if they do not lead to full clearance. Using highly disaggregated data on demining operations in Colombia from 2004 to 2019, and exploiting the staggered fashion of demining activity, we find that post-conflict humanitarian demining generates economic growth (measured with nighttime light density) and increases students’ performance in test scores. In contrast, economic activity does not react to post-conflict demining events carried out during military operations, and it decreases if demining takes place while the conflict is ongoing. Rather, demining events that result from military operations are more likely to exacerbate extractive activities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civilians, Landmines, Armed Conflict, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Colombia

5. Eastern Yemen’s Tribal Model for Containing Conflict

Author:: Ahmed Nagi
Publication Date:: 03-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: The tribes of Mahra, a part of eastern Yemen that borders Oman, adhere to a code of conduct that has helped the area’s inhabitants mediate disputes and contain conflict at key points in the region’s history. This has ensured a degree of stability for Mahra even in times of war. Today, as the war in Yemen continues, the region is the site of a power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Oman. The Mahri code of conduct has enabled the region to escape the worst excesses of the war and to limit Saudi influence there. Though often overlooked, the Mahri approach could offer lessons in defusing tensions between the warring parties elsewhere in conflict-ridden Yemen.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Tribes
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

6. Elite Political Cues and Attitude Formation in Post-Conflict Contexts

Author:: Natalia Garbiras-Díaz, Miguel García-Sánchez, and Aila M. Matanock
Publication Date:: 07-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: Citizens are often asked to evaluate peace agreements seeking to end civil conflicts, by voting on referendums or the negotiating leaders or, even when not voting, deciding whether to cooperate with the implementation of policies like combatant reintegration. In this paper, we assess how citizens form attitudes towards the provisions in peace agreements. These contexts tend to have high polarization, and citizens are asked to weigh in on complex policies, so we theorize that citizens will use cues from political elites with whom they have affinity, and, without these cues, information will have less effect. We assess our theory using survey experiments in Colombia. We find citizens rely on political elites’ cues to form their opinion on a peace agreement’s provisions, with the direction depending on the citizen’s affinity with the political elites. Additional information about these policies has little effect. The paper suggests that even these high stakes decisions can be seen as political decisions as usual.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies, Treaties and Agreements, Citizenship, Conflict, Peace, and Elites
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

7. Peacekeeping and the Enforcement of Intergroup Cooperation, Evidence from Mali

Author:: William G. Nomikos
Publication Date:: 08-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: Despite the abundance of evidence that peacekeeping works, we know little about what actually makes peacekeepers effective. Recent work suggesting that local agendas are central to modern conflicts make this omission particularly problematic. The article demonstrates that the presence of peacekeepers makes individuals more optimistic about the risks of engagement and the likelihood that members of outgroups will reciprocate cooperation. I use data from a lab-in-the-field experiment conducted in Mali, a West African country with an active conflict managed by troops from France and the United Nations (UN), to show that UN peacekeepers increase the willingness of individuals to cooperate relative to control and French enforcers. Moreover, I find that UN peacekeepers are especially effective among those participants who hold other groups and institutions in low esteem as well as those who have more frequent contact with peacekeepers. Follow-up interviews and surveys suggest that perceptions of the UN as unbiased rather than other mechanisms account for its effectiveness.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

8. ‘Peace with a Woman’s Face’: Women, Social Media and the Colombian Peace Process

Author:: Alexis Henshaw
Publication Date:: 09-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Journal:: Contexto Internacional
Institution:: Institute of International Relations, Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro
Abstract:: The idea that men and women approach conflict resolution differently forms the back- bone of the international agenda on Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) and is supported by a growing body of scholarship in international relations. However, the role of women who represent insurgent groups in peace talks remains understudied, given the relatively rare appearance of such women in peace processes. The present study examines how men and women from the negotiating team of the Revolutionary Armed Forced of Colombia (FARC) engaged in public-facing discourse on Twitter leading up to a referendum on the peace accords in 2016. Using a mixed-methods ap- proach that includes computational analysis and a close reading of social media posts, I demonstrate that women in the FARC’s negotiating team were more successful social media users than their male counterparts and that they offered a distinct contribution to the discourse on peace, centring the relevance of gender and promoting issue linkages like the need to address LGBTI rights.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Gender Issues, Mass Media, Social Media, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

9. Negotiating from the Margins: Women’s Participation in Colombian Peace Processes (1982–2016)

Author:: Nina Chaparro and Margarita Martínez
Publication Date:: 05-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: In this book, we offer an examination of and recommendations for women’s participation in Colombia’s peace processes, with an eye toward strengthening spaces for participation and, in doing so, ensuring that the peace accord is ultimately translated into long-term social pacts that are inclusive and committed to justice and equity.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Peacekeeping, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:: Colombia

10. A Ceasefire with Feet of Clay: The Potential Spoilers of Peace in Libya

Author:: Dario Cristiani
Publication Date:: 11-2020
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: On 23 October 2020, negotiators from the 5+5 Joint Military Commission, the dialogue format between the forces of the UN-recognised Government of the National Accord (GNA) and Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), signed a ceasefire in Geneva. Two days later, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced the launch of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), whose first round took place in Tunis between 9-15 November, after virtual sessions started on 28 October. Delegates agreed on a date for elections (24 December 2021) but not a new government, and will reconvene to continue negotiating at the end of November. While the announcement of the ceasefire and the political dialogue held in Tunis is obviously good news, the road ahead remains rife with challenges. The acting UNSMIL head, Stephanie Williams, has warned that many will seek, “for narrow personal and purposes, to corrupt and disrupt” the process. Looking ahead, four dynamics can spoil the process, undermining the prospects for a more sustainable political settlement in Libya: Haftar’s role; the situation of the global oil market; Turkey’s regional ambitions; and the economic interests of militia groups in Tripoli.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:: Libya and North America

11. Divided and Divisive: Europeans, Israel and Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking

Author:: Muriel Asseburg, Nimrod Goren, Nicolai von Ondarza, Eyal Ronen, and Muriel Asseburg
Publication Date:: 05-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:: Over the last 40 years, since the 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty (that alluded to but did not solve the Palestinian question) and the European Community’s 1980 Venice Declaration, Europe has been seeking ways to help advance Israeli-Palestinian peace. The task was not an easy one, mostly due to United States of America (US) dominance of peace negotiations and negative Israeli attitudes towards Europe as a mediator. Thus, while Europeans were key in shaping international language on the conflict, they have remained in the back seat when it comes to shaping dynamics on the ground. Since the collapse in 2014 of the John Kerry initiative to advance the peace process, the task has become even more difficult for the Europeans. Realities on the ground, such as a right-wing government in Israel lacking interest in advancing a peace process, expanded settlement construction, as well as the internal Palestinian split and governance deficiencies in the Palestinian Authority, make the two-state solution ever more difficult to achieve. In addition, Israel’s leadership has worked to weaken and divide the EU in order to limit its role on the issue. In this endeavor, it has profited from different interests and priorities among EU Member States as reflected in discussions and decision-making processes regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These trends have increasingly intensified in recent years, and it is the goal of this publication to analyze them, assess their impact on European capacities and policies, and devise recommendations to tackle and perhaps even reverse them. The publication includes three analytical chapters focusing on internal European dynamics, on Israel’s foreign policy towards the EU, and on EU policy-making regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict/peace process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

12. Resolving The Korean Conflict

Author:: David Santoro and Anton Khlopkov
Publication Date:: 02-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Much ink has been spilled on the return to major-power competition in recent years, singling out three states: the United States, Russia, and China. For good reasons: the relationships between these three states have become increasingly complicated, notably between the United States and Russia and between the United States and China. What’s more, there are few signs that the current trajectory could change for the better. If anything, we can expect these relationships to become more, not less, complicated.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, and Peace
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, and Korean Peninsula

13. Trust in State and Non-State Actors: Evidence from Dispute Resolution in Pakistan

Author:: Daron Acemoglu, Ali Cheema, Asim Ijaz Khwaja, and James A. Robinson
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Lack of trust in state institutions, often due to poor service provision, is a pervasive problem in many developing countries. It may also be one of the reasons citizens turn to non-state actors for services. This paper investigates whether information about improved public services can help build trust in state institutions and move people away from non-state actors. We focus on dispute resolution in rural Pakistan. We find that (truthful) information about reduced delays in state courts leads to citizens reporting higher likelihood of using them and to greater allocations to the state in two high-stakes lab-in-the-field games designed to measure belief in the effectiveness of state courts and willingness to contribute resources for others to access them. More interestingly, we find indirect negative effects on non-state actors in the same high-stakes settings. We show that the positive direct and negative indirect effects are both mediated by changes in beliefs about the effectiveness of these actors. Our preferred interpretation explains these behaviors as a response to improved beliefs about state actors which then motivate individuals to interact less with non-state actors and as a result downgrade their beliefs about them. We provide additional checks bolstering this interpretation and alleviating concerns about potential social experimenter effects or mechanical contrasts between the two actors. These results indicate that, despite distrust of the state in Pakistan, credible new information can change beliefs and behavior.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Non State Actors, Political and institutional effectiveness, State, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:: Pakistan and South Asia

14. The state of the war-wounded in northern Uganda

Author:: Dyan Mazurana, Anastasia Marshak, and Teddy Atim
Publication Date:: 03-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:: Few large-scale, structured surveys have been conducted on the prevalence of alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity committed by warring parties against civilians and how this relates to disability. Using data from a panel survey carried out in 2013, 2015, and 2018 that is representative of all of Acholi and Lango sub-regions in northern Uganda, this working paper reports the prevalence of alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity for individuals and households; their association with disability; and the resulting effects over time on people’s lives in terms of food security, wealth, access to basic services, and healthcare. The study contributes to an understanding of people who have experienced alleged war crimes or crimes against humanity that affect them physically and psychologically; the relationship between experience of these alleged crimes and their experience of disability; the effects of these crimes on their wealth, food security, and access to livelihood and social protection services; the effects of these crimes on their access to basic and therapeutic healthcare; and a better understanding of the key obstacles faced by victims of these alleged crimes when they are unable to receive basic and therapeutic healthcare.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

15. Migration and Post-Conflict Reconstruction: The Effect of Returning Refugees on Export Performance in the Former Yugoslavia

Author:: Dany Bahar, Hillel Rapoport, Cem Özgüzel, and Andreas Hauptmann
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:: During the early 1990s Germany offered temporary protection to over 600,000 Yugoslavian refugees fleeing war. By 2000, many had been repatriated. We exploit this natural experiment to investigate the role of migrants in post-conflict reconstruction in the former Yugoslavia, using exports as outcome. Using confidential social security data to capture intensity of refugee workers to German industries –and exogenous allocation rules for asylum seekers within Germany as instrument– we find an elasticity of exports to return migration between 0.08 to 0.24. Our results are stronger in knowledge-intensive industries and for workers in occupations intensive in analytical and managerial skills.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, International Political Economy, Migration, Refugee Issues, Refugees, and Exports
Political Geography:: Europe, Yugoslavia, and Germany

16. "The Ambivalence of the Sacred": Religion, Conflict Resolution, and Peacebuilding in Northern Nigeria, 2000–2015

Author:: Jacinta Chimaka Nwaka
Publication Date:: 10-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Social Science Research Council
Abstract:: Nigeria is one of a few African countries where religion has largely been associated with conflict. The dominance of the two major Abrahamic reli- gions—Islam and Christianity—on each side of the divide has made religion one of the more potent factors in the contention for political, economic, and identity spaces in the country. Although the use of religion for identity con- struction, power legitimization, and economic achievement characterized the colonial and immediate post-colonial period, it was not until the late 1970s that religion became highly disruptive, with the onset of religious vi- olence into the country.1 While these eruptions appeared to be restricted to the core northern cities, the re-democratization process associated with the post-Cold War period generated new tensions as politicians mobilized group identities for contested positions. Thus, other northern Nigerian cities that were hitherto known for peace became susceptible to violence. It was in the wake of this development that Plateau and Kaduna states became the epicenter of violent clashes of a religious nature. Various strategies have been adopted by both governmental and non-governmental bodies to ad- dress these conflicts. While some of them have been successful interven- tions, others have failed to stem the tide of conflict. Can religion, which is claimed to be a factor in these conflicts, become part of the solution? The current study seeks to identify the role(s) of faith-based actors in conflict resolution and peacebuilding in Plateau and Kaduna States of Northern Ni- geria between 2000 and 2015. The aim is to explain the conditions that have accounted for the success or failure of their intervention. Beginning with Johnston and Sampson, who identified religion as a missing dimension in statecraft, various authors have highlighted numerous ways through which religious actors can have a positive influence on the peace process.2 According to Johnston and Sampson and Appleby, religious actors are better positioned than politicians to reach out to local and regional ac- tors.3 This is because they are often believed to be in possession of moral and emotional qualifications as well as professional approaches that com- mand the respect and confidence of the parties to a conflict. In his study of religious actors in peace process, Weingardt believes that while all actors involved in conflict resolution and peacebuilding ideally have these qual- ities, they are more common with religious actors.4 He further explained the three dimensions of the confidence and trust which faith-based actors enjoy from the conflict parties. The existence of religious thinking in all cul- tures can be used to justify the call for peace and non-violence. Religious actors are often seen as those who go beyond mere resolution of conflict to address issues of morality, reconciliation, forgiveness, and responsibility, which underlie conflict resolution and are often perceived as those moti- vated by selfless interest. Though these may be at the level of perception rather than reality, Weingardt is of the opinion that such perceptions are informed by the respect generally accorded to religion and religious val- ues.5 The importance of legitimacy and leverage was equally underscored by Aroua and Bercovitch and Kadayici-Orellana, who assert that religious leaders with deep understanding of religious beliefs and ideals are better, placed to promote inter-religious dialogue by transferring codes from one value system to the other.6 In some cases, their influence over conflicting parties, or at least one of them, may become the basis for opening a com- munication channel. Other scholars further emphasize the role of religious organizations in pro- moting peace. According to Smock, they are very effective in delivering aid and development projects, which is considered an important aspect of the peace process.7 Their effectiveness, as observed by Bouta, Kadayici-Orel- lana and Abu-Nimer derives not only from the trust and confidence they command, but also because faith communities are less expensive, having with them, in most cases, a network of volunteers who may not just be committed but who are also ready to make enormous sacrifices informed by their religious beliefs and values.8 Although aid and development are at the pragmatic level, they help immeasurably in addressing the root causes of conflict.9 In addition to what religious actors can do, available literature points to several conflicts that have been mediated by faith-based actors. Among the outstanding cases are: the successful mediation in Mozam- bique by the Rome-based Community of Saint Egido, which helped to end the country’s civil war; and the Lome Peace Agreement of 1999 through the instrumentality of the Inter-Religious Council of Sierra Leone; (2001).10 There have also been cases where mediation by religious organizations in peace processes was not successful. For example, Saint Egido failed in its effort to resolve the conflicts in Algeria, Burundi, and the Democratic Re- public of Congo.11 Religious leaders in Liberia were unsuccessful in their attempts to intervene in the country’s first civil war.12 In the widespread pro- tests and riots that followed the cartoon published by a Danish newspaper, Jyllands-Posten, seen as depicting Prophet Mohammed as a terrorist in 2005, an attempt by the Catholic Relief Services (CRS) to initiate interreli- gious dialogue in Maiduguri also failed. Despite ever-growing interest in the field of faith-based actors in peace- building, one crucial question has remained unanswered: under which con- ditions can religion contribute to peace? Bercovitch has called attention to the need to go beyond the discussion of what success in conflict interven- tion means or may mean to understand the factors that could potentially contribute to such success. This view was re-echoed by Susan Hayward, who noted that “there is a pressing need for greater monitoring and eval- uation of religious peacebuilding work...to understand better which inter- ventions led by whom, and in which situation have the greater effect.”13 The need to establish the constructive role of religion in the peace process has become crucial in the present era, when those involved in the negotiation and peacebuilding processes continue to marginalize religious actors, often considering them to have no constructive role.14 This study is located within this existing scholarship. It uses data from field-based primary sources in qualitative research - in-depth interview (IDI), Focused Group Discussion (FGD), official documents and extant secondary source materials, to explore the conditions that explain the successful or failed interventions of faith- based actors in three outstanding conflicts in Plateau and Kaduna States namely: the Jos and Yelwa conflicts in Plateau State and the Kaduna conflict in Kaduna State between 2000 and 2015.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Religion, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Nigeria and Africa

17. Egyptian Mediation in Gaza is a Strategic Asset by its Own Right

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 04-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is in Israel’s interest to solidify the Egyptian role in Gaza, in the context of “conflict management” as a governing policy concept. Egyptian participation in the efforts to stabilize the situation in Gaza serves as an important component in the vital Egypt-Israel relationship. It also helps erode Hamas’ pretensions of Jihad.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Terrorism, Territorial Disputes, Leadership, Peace, Hamas, Strategic Stability, and Mediation
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt

18. The Israel-Jordan Treaty at 25

Author:: Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:: 07-2019
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: It is a crucial accord, but needs attention and maintenance.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, and Jordan

19. Palestine and the Arab–Israeli Conflict: 100 Years of Regional Relevance and International Failure

Author:: Karim Makdisi
Publication Date:: 12-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: This paper asserts that the Arab–Israeli conflict, and in particular the question of Palestine, has been the major issue of regional concern across the Middle East for over a century. It claims that the failure to resolve the question of Palestine will continue to impact on the region’s stability and its geopolitical dynamics and to shape popular opinion while limiting Arab leaders’ options. It first situates the Arab–Israeli conflict as a core regional issue in historical context – which is crucial for understanding where we are today – before critically reviewing the Oslo “peace process” and its failure to deliver a just and sustainable peace within the framework of a “two-state solution”. It suggests that this failure has resulted in the ramping up of lingering regional problems (e.g. southern Lebanon, the Golan Heights, refugees and in Palestine itself) and the rise of new challenges and frameworks (e.g. the Resistance Axis and the BDS movement). It concludes that the time has come for the international community – including the European Union, which has contributed to the failure of the two-state solution – to consider alternative paradigms and actions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Refugees, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Peace
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria

20. Victims and press after the war

Author:: Vivian Newman Pont, Maria Paula Ángel, and María Ximena Dávila
Publication Date:: 01-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: The drive to conduct this research was born out of the tension that developed on May of 2017 in the context of the journalistic coverage of the exhumations of those who died in the Bojayá massacre. Thus, this document has the purpose of asking and answering, from a socio-legal perspective, the following question: How can the events related to the armed conflict and to the transition to peace be narrated without violating the right to privacy of the victims? Or, how can a journalist record a dramatic event or recount an injuste that moves readers while respecting the limits of the private lives of the victims? To answer the question, this document examines the tensions between rights that can arise out of narrating the transition to peace as part of the journalistic profession, with the hope that the conclusion set forth is valid not only for the Bojayá case, but also in future transition years, as both victims and society in general benefit from a free and responsible press and the respect for private lives.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, War on Drugs, Freedom of Expression, Peace, Repression, and The Press
Political Geography:: Colombia

21. Searching for a Historic Agreement between Serbs & Albanians on Kosovo: From Ambiguities to Clarity

Author:: Dimitris A. Moschopoulos
Publication Date:: 02-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:: The paper takes as starting point the call by President Vucic of Serbia for a dialogue on the future of Kosovo with a view to reaching a historic agreement between Serbs and Albanians that would help his country deal with the Kosovo issue and would make it possible for it to secure a future in the European Union. The author attempts an assessment of various efforts for settling the dispute between Serbia and Kosovo, including the Ahtisaari Plan of 2007 and the Brussels Dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina currently going on, and tries to clarify some ambiguities and misunderstandings still prevailing about basic parameters of the conflict and of the European integration of the two sides. An analysis of the principles set by Mr. Vucic to guide the debate between Serbs and Albanians, namely that (a) Serbia does not covet what doesn’t belong to her and will not relinquish what belongs to her, and (b) the protection of the Serbian religious and cultural heritage in Kosovo is of paramount importance to Serbia, leads to the conclusion that the envisaged agreement should have (a) Serbia recognize that it does not own Kosovo’s statehood, which rightfully belongs to Kosovo, and (b) Kosovo accord an exceptionalism status to the Serbian religious and cultural heritage in its territory. The author further argues that the ideal agreement between the two sides turns out to also be a possible one.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Religion, Treaties and Agreements, and Culture
Political Geography:: Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

22. Ako-na-Uche versus Nzogbu-nzogbu: Interrogating the Rupture between Igbo Elite and their Lumpen in Igbo Nationalism

Author:: Chikodiri Nwangwu
Publication Date:: 05-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
Abstract:: Post-war Igbo ethno-nationalism has witnessed two distinct but interconnected generations. Both of them emerged as a response to the ineffective and objectionable implementation of post-war peace-building initiatives as well as the progressive victimisation of the Igbo since the end of the Nigerian Civil War in 1970. While the first generation is championed and dominated by conservative Igbo petty bourgeoisie, the second is revolutionary and commonly associated with populist youth-led lumpen neo-Biafran separatist movements. In line with the philosophy of akona-uche, the former seeks mainstream inclusivism through democratic and non-confrontational approach in its response to the perceived widespread victimisation of the Igbo. On the contrary, the latter is inspired by the principle of nzogbu-nzogbu and seeks radical separatism as the most sustainable solution to the Igbo question in Nigeria. The reinvention of the nzogbu-nzogbu approach to Igbo nationalism in 1999 has attracted substantial public and scholarly attention. However, extant studies are mainly awash with explanations of the recurrent agitation for Biafra. There has not been any systematic investigation of how the fissure between the lumpen and aristocrats (Oha-na-Eze) of Igbo extraction undermines the pursuit of Igbo nationalism. Using the Marxist social class analysis, the study found that the Igbo question will remain a wild goose chase until the contradictions in the material conditions of the Igbo petty bourgeoisie and their masses are conscientiously harmonised.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Ethnic Conflict, Nationalism, Peacekeeping, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

23. Southern African anchor state: A renewed strategic commitment to South African conflict management as a central function of smart power

Author:: Priyal Singh
Publication Date:: 04-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:: This paper considers the potential future role of South Africa as an anchor state in Africa, whose legitimacy and credibility – in spite of domestic constraints – is underwritten by a strategic commitment to maintaining regional peace and security. To achieve this, the paper draws upon the “hard” and “soft” power dichotomy first alluded to by Joseph Nye, to frame an understanding of current South African international relations against a conceptual backdrop largely influenced by liberal institutionalism – as well as certain constructivist propositions, to a lesser extent. The paper considers three distinct periods in the evolution of the country’s foreign policy thinking, before discussing the most significant aspects of the current international peace and security order from the perspective of a system facing fundamental ontological change, and one which subsequently necessitates new approaches and strategies by international stakeholders. Finally, the paper puts forward an argument that privileges the idea of a renewal of aspirational South African leadership in the region. This is specifically premised on a central commitment to conflict management and the subsequent maintenance of peace and security through better application of the country’s “smart power” reserves, as well as in terms of the demands and opportunities associated with an international system in flux.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Leadership, Crisis Management, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and South Africa

24. In Praise of Conflict Management

Author:: Eran Lerman
Publication Date:: 10-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:: Amidst violent events, it is easy to be tempted to seek decisive “solutions” to the Palestinian problem(s) – in both the PA areas and in Gaza – through drastic military action, or through equally dramatic concessions. But given the lessons of recent history, as well as the unpredictable nature of regional events, it makes sense to adhere to “conflict management” and piecemeal arrangements. This is not as a cowardly choice by hapless political and military leaders, but as a rational choice in irrational circumstances; even more so when the Iranian challenge looms larger than ever on Israel’s immediate horizons. Patience has its own merits.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

25. Justice through Transitions: Conflict, Peacemaking and Human Rights in the Global South

Author:: César Rodríguez and Meghan Morris
Publication Date:: 08-2018
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Dejusticia
Abstract:: The chapters in this volume illustrate many complexities of transitional justice processes from the perspective of young human rights advocates involved in these struggles, many with their own complicated personal connections to the search for justice. These advocates hail from countries that have divergent relationships with the notion of transitional justice, from places deeply embedded in its norms and processes, such as Argentina and Colombia, to countries undergoing various kinds of transitions on very different terms, such as Turkey and Mexico. All of the chapters, however, write the messiness of seeking justice through transitions, spanning from the personal and intimate to the national and global. Together, these chapters beautifully illustrate both the pain and the political possibilities that come from the inability to leave history in the past, as well as the creativity of individual and collective efforts to seek justice through transitions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Transitional Justice, Justice, and Transition
Political Geography:: Global South

26. Post-conflict Stabilization in Africa

Author:: Anke Hoeffler
Publication Date:: 06-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: African Economic Research Consortium (AERC)
Abstract:: Post-conflict peace is fragile, about half of all conflicts break out again during the twelve post-conflict years. In Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. The data suggest that many operations start before the end of the armed conflict, thus they should be viewed as ‘peace preparation’ operations. The paper recommends the use of additional case studies, given that the small sample size prevents further quantitative examination of these important issues.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Economics, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

27. Post-Conflict Re-Construction in MENA: Previous Experiences and Stakeholder's Inclusive Involvement in the Future Reconstruction of Libya, Syria and Iraq

Author:: Amaia Goenaga
Publication Date:: 09-2017
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:: The European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed) and Casa Árabe, with the collaboration of ICEX (Spain Trade and Investment), organised in 2016 an international conference entitled "Post-conflict re-construction in MENA: Previous experiences and stakeholders’ inclusive involvement in the future reconstruction of Libya, Syria and Iraq". The aim was to tackle the different aspects and challenges related to reconstruction in post-conflict countries in the region. Given the dimension and complexity of the subject, the conference was structured in a double meeting, bringing together stakeholders, academics and experts. The first one took place in Barcelona on the 11 April 2016 and the second one on the 19 September 2016 in Madrid. This document gathers and assesses the main conclusions and recommendations reached in both meetings. Thus issues tackled have been grouped into five main lines of discussion, which are divided into epigraphs devoted to some key concrete issues:
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Conflict Prevention
Political Geography:: Middle East

28. Employment Status and Support for Wartime Violence: Evidence from the Iraq War

Author:: Andrew Shaver
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Empirical Studies of Conflict Project (ESOC)
Abstract:: The unemployed are often inculpated in the production of violence during conflict. A simple yet common argument describes these individuals as disaffected and inclined to perpetrate affectively motivated violence. A second holds that they are drawn to violent political organizations for lack of better outside options. Yet, evidence in support of a general positive relationship between unemployment and violence during conflict is not established. Drawing from a large body of psychological research, I argue that a basic but important relationship has been overlooked: Loss of employment, rather than rendering individuals angry, increases feelings of depression, anxiety, helplessness, and belief in the power of others. Members of this segment of society are more likely than most to reject the use of violence. Drawing on previously unreleased data from a major, multi-million dollar survey effort carried out during the Iraq war, I uncover evidence that psychological findings carry to conflict settings: unemployed Iraqis were consistently less optimistic than other citizens; displayed diminished perceptions of efficacy; and were much less likely to support the use of violence against Coalition forces.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Labor Issues, Conflict, Violence, War on Terror, and Quantitative
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Middle East

29. Spotlight on Yemen's Forgotten War and Humanitarian Disaster: Preventing the Next Syrian Refugee Crisis

Author:: Jacqueline Lopour
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: Humanitarian crises across the world are the worst since World War II, and the situation is only going to get worse. According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), almost 60 million people worldwide have been forcibly displaced from their homes — that is approximately one in every 123 people on the planet (UNHCR 2016a). The problem is growing, as the number of those displaced is over 60 percent greater than the previous decade. As a result, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has announced the first ever World Humanitarian Summit to be held May 23-24, 2016. The world’s attention is focused on the Syrian refugee crisis, which has displaced 11 million people. But in doing so, the global community has lost sight of an equally severe humanitarian and displacement crisis — the situation in Yemen. Yemen now has more people in need of aid than any other country in the world, according to the UNOCHA Global Humanitarian Overview 2016. An estimated 21.2 million people in Yemen — 82 percent of the population — requires humanitarian aid, and this number is steadily growing (UNOCHA 2016a).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, War, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:: Yemen and Global Focus

30. The Privatization of Human Rights: Illusions of Consent, Automation and Neutrality

Author:: Emily Taylor
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:: The Internet enables the free flow of information on an unprecedented scale but to an increasing extent the management of individuals’ fundamental rights, such as privacy and the mediation of free expression, is being left in the hands of private actors. The popularity of a few web platforms across the globe confers on the providers both great power and heavy responsibilities. Free-to-use web platforms are founded on the sale of user data, and the standard terms give providers rights to intrude on every aspect of a user’s online life, while giving users the Hobson’s choice of either agreeing to those terms or not using the platform (the illusion of consent). Meanwhile, the same companies are steadily assuming responsibility for monitoring and censoring harmful content, either as a self-regulatory response to prevent conflicts with national regulatory environments, or to address inaction by states, which bear primary duty for upholding human rights. There is an underlying tension for those companies between self-regulation, on the one hand, and being held accountable for rights violations by states, on the other hand. The incongruity of this position might explain the secrecy surrounding the human systems that companies have developed to monitor content (the illusion of automation). Psychological experiments and opaque algorithms for defining what search results or friends’ updates users see highlight the power of today’s providers over their publics (the illusion of neutrality). Solutions could include provision of paid alternatives, more sophisticated definition and handling of different types of data — public, private, ephemeral, lasting — and the cooperation of all stakeholders in arriving at realistic and robust processes for content moderation that comply with the rule of law.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Human Welfare, Science and Technology, and Governance
Political Geography:: Global Focus

31. Voices for Reconciliation: Assessing Media Outreach and Survivor Engagement for Case 002 at the Khmer Rouge Trials

Author:: Christoph Sperfeldt, Melanie Hyde, and Mychelle Balthazard
Publication Date:: 02-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: Using outreach-friendly television broadcasting of the Khmer Rouge (KR) trials in Cambodia in conjunction with community-based dialogue meetings, the Voices for Reconciliation: Promoting Nationwide Dialogue on the Khmer Rouge Past through the Mass Media and Community-Level Survivor Networks project aimed to 1) increase community awareness and understanding of the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) trials, 2) empower conﬂict-affected groups to create spaces for dialogue at the community level, and 3) build the necessary capacities among those groups and civil society intermediaries to create environments favorable for longer-term reconciliatory processes beyond the ECCC. The project engaged with the Cambodian Human Rights and Development Association's Civil Party Representative Scheme, which supports a network of Civil Parties (CPs) and Civil Party Representatives (CPRs) who are party to the ECCC proceedings. To achieve the objectives, the project had a three-prong strategy: 1) the production and broadcasting of television programs and media outreach to the general population, 2) the organization of community-based dialogue meetings using outreach ﬁlms to inform Cambodians in rural areas about the ECCC and its developments, and 3) capacity building to civil society groups and 46 CPRs who were directly involved with the project. This report was produced as part of an evaluation of the project in Cambodia, and involved an assessment of the project outcomes in relation to the participation of the CPs and CPRs in the project and lessons learned from the project implementation. The results are based on interviews with a non-random sample of 101 CPs and 38 out of 46 CPRs who participated in the project. To complement the survey, four focus group discussions including a total of 18 women and 14 men, were conducted in four different provinces. The interviews and the focus group discussions took place during the ﬁrst two weeks of July 2015 at the end of the project. The results represent the points of view of study participants at the time of the survey and focus groups discussions only. This project was supported by USAID and implemented by the East-West Center and WSD Handa Center for Human Rights & International Justice, Stanford University.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Human Rights, History, and Mass Media
Political Geography:: Cambodia

32. EU-Turkey Cooperation on ‘Refugee Crisis’: Is it on the Right Track?

Author:: Fatma Yilmaz-Elmas, Mustafa Kutlay, Hamdi Furat Buyuk, and Öznur Gümüs
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
Abstract:: What is the current course of the refugee crisis? What has the EU done so far as a response to the crisis? Is it possible to mention a balanced and comprehensive policy response in compliance with international norms and responsibilities? Are the EU-Turkey migration cooperation policies on the right track? This policy brief answers these and further questions in depth. It handles main results and policy outputs both for the EU and Turkey. We argue that the current mode of cooperation is highly fragile and is likely to fail in case substantial revisions are not taken into consideration. It reveals consideration the sensitive nature of the situation and highlights the parties need to adopt a joint response that takes on the priorities and capacities of both sides.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Refugee Issues, and European Union
Political Geography:: Turkey

33. The Value of Hospital Data Understanding and Preventing Intentional Injury in Liberia

Author:: Lucie Collinson, Andrew Winnington, and Mary Vriniotis
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Small Arms Survey
Abstract:: Studying the evidence related to the burden of injury of a population is a critical component of developing strategies to prevent and reduce violence. In many countries around the world, national observatories have been established to collect data to measure and monitor armed violence in an effort to inform and strengthen evidence-based armed violence reduction initiatives. These observatories collect data on violent incidents to enhance awareness of the extent and distribution of armed violence in varying geographic and socio-economic settings. An observatory’s ability to inform effective violence prevention strategies depends in large part on the efficient collection and timely sharing of quality data (Gilgen and Tracey, 2011).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Liberia

34. No endgame in Syria: why truces are impracticable and peace negotiations challenging

Author:: Wolfgang Mühlberger
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: The September ceasefire in Syria expired after the scheduled duration of a week due to the bombardment of sensitive targets by the brokers – instead of being extended and shored up by a political track. Agreeing on the modalities without the ability or willingness to enforce them, makes ceasefires futile and undermines peace negotiations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:: Syria

35. Between Bureaucracy and Adhocracy: Crafting a Spectrum of UN Peace Operations

Author:: Ian Johnstone
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:: The array of tools the UN has developed to prevent, manage and resolve conflict has expanded in recent years. They are being deployed in new formats, from political missions and small peacebuilding teams, to large observer missions and multidimensional peace operations with offensive capabilities. But the High-level Independent Panel on Peace Operations (HIPPO) and other recent reports question whether the tools are being used as effectively as they could be. The HIPPO recommended, “the full spectrum of peace operations must be employed more exibly to respond to changing needs on the ground”. It said the UN must deliver more “right fit” missions, a “continuum of response and smoother transitions between different phases of missions.” This message was echoed in the Secretary-General’s follow up report, the Advisory Group of Experts (AGE) on the Peacebuilding Architecture Review, and the Global Study on the implementation of resolution 1325. It is also implicit in the Plan of Action to Prevent Violent Extremism, which calls for creativity in how to respond to that threat.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

36. Who are the Killers of Beni?

Author:: Jason Stearns
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:: Since October 2014, the region around the town of Beni in north eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) has been the site of some of the worst massacres in the country’s recent history. Over five hundred people have been killed and tens of thousands have fled their homes. The UN mission and the Congolese government have publicly stated that the massacres are the work of Ugandan rebels from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Research by the Congo Research Group (CRG) based on interviews conducted with over a hundred witnesses and local leaders indicates that the definition of the ADF needs to be revised. Rather than a foreign Islamist group driven by revenge, our research points to a group that has forged strong ties with local interest groups and militias over the course of twenty years of insurrection around Beni. Moreover, our preliminary findings indicate that responsibility does not lie with the ADF alone. In addition to commanders directly tied to the ADF, members of the Forces armées de la République démocratique du Congo (FARDC), the national army; former members of the Rassemblement congolais pour la démocratie—Kisangani/Mouvement de libération (RCD– K/ML); as well as members of communal militias have also been involved in attacks on the civilian population.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Democratic Republic of the Congo

37. Navigating Complexity: Climate, Migration and Conflict in a Changing World

Author:: Wilson Center
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Climate change is expected to contribute to the movement of people through a variety of means. There is also significant concern climate change may influence violent conflict. But our understanding of these dynamics is evolving quickly and sometimes producing surprising results. There are considerable misconceptions about why people move, how many move, and what effects they have. In a discussion paper for USAID’s Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation, the Environmental Change and Security Program presents a guide to this controversial and consequential nexus of global trends. Building off a workshop held at the Wilson Center last year, we provide a background scan of relevant literature and an in-depth analysis of the high-profile cases of Darfur and Syria to discern policy-relevant lessons from the latest research.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, International Organization, Migration, and International Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

38. Development Challenges and Tools in Conflict Environments

Author:: Todd Diamond
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: For at least a generation, conflict resolution has been predominantly the domain of international development practitioners seeking to use their skills and tools to avert war and reduce the suffering of civilian populations. More recently, the U.S. military added similar exercises to its planning efforts, primarily for the strategic purpose of reducing its own potential future deployments around the world. Working occasionally in parallel and at other times seemingly at cross-purposes, the military, donors and non-governmental organizations have begrudgingly come to accept that in any given crisis each can play a role. The nature and extent of each actor’s role depends on the circumstances and the severity of the situation. As the military concludes the longest war in U.S. history in Afghanistan, and as pressure mounts to intervene in additional conflicts in the Middle East, it is worth examining what role development can play in reducing that pressure, who should be responsible for providing that assistance, and what form it should take. In most cases, whether in a pre-conflict environment, an active conflict, or a post-conflict phase, development agencies and their partners are well placed to provide warnings and respond to civilian crises, though not without coordinating and collaborating in certain instances with their military counterparts...
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Military Affairs, Conflict, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

39. A Well-Reasoned Opinion? A Critical Analysis of the First Case Against the Original Leaders of Khmer Rouge

Author:: David Cohen, Melanie Hyde, Penelope Van Tuyl, and Stephanie Fung
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: East-West Center
Abstract:: On 7 August 2014, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) reached an important institutional milestone when the Court published its long-awaited Trial Judgment in the first case against two of the surviving alleged senior leaders of the Khmer Rouge--Nuon Chea and Khieu Samphan ("Case 002/01"). The Court found both men guilty of crimes against humanity, and sentenced them each to life imprisonment, while awarding "moral and collective reparations" to the 3,869 Civil Parties participating in the trial. Despite hopes that the five-year process of judicial investigation, trial, deliberation, and Judgment-drafting would produce a rigorous and insightful final product, in reality, as this report argues, the Case 002/01 Judgment fails to deliver the most fundamental output one expects from a criminal trial--systematic application of the elements of crimes to a well-documented body of factual findings. Based, in part, on insight gained from the continuous presence of a team of trial monitors throughout trial, this report provides commentary on how a contentious and confusing trial process in Case 002/01 ultimately produced a similarly problematic final Judgment.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Politics, and History
Political Geography:: Cambodia

40. If You Want Peace, Prepare for Peace: Reflections Amid the Current Political Crisis

Author:: S. Kazennov and V. Kumachev
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The Path to Peace has always been thorny, unlike the path to war: it is always easier to walk down a slippery slope, while the expectations are often brighter than the results that are achieved, that is, of course unless the goal is to indulge in self-publicity on the captain’s bridge of an aircraft carrier, fly a victorious flag over Baghdad or “win a difficult victory over the opponents of democracy” ahead of elections in one’s own country. We are the avowed proponents of the “if you want peace, prepare for peace” approach, but under different circumstances, at different historical and geopolitical periods, “preparations” can and should be different. In one situation, the reduction of the military capability and “disarmament” are regarded by opponents and partners/rivals as the striving for the relaxation of international tensions and the building of new relations, with a new substance and with the “friendly” proportions of positive and confrontational interaction.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

41. The Nuclear Problem of the Korean Peninsula: Is There a Way to Break the Impasse?

Author:: V. Denisov
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula is escalating and is increasingly difficult to resolve. the six-nation mechanism for negotiating a solution, which brings together Russia, China, the United States, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea, has remained stalled for more than five years. Agreements enshrined in the sextet’s Joint Statement of September 19, 2005 have never been put into practice. Relations between the two Koreas are as sour today as ever, and time and again tensions between Pyongyang and Seoul reach extremely dangerous proportions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

42. Strategic Insights: Guyana-Venezuela: The Essequibo Region Dispute

Author:: Dr. Jose de Arimateia da Cruz
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: While the rest of the world is concerned about the refugee crisis in Europe, the conflict in Syria, and the potential contenders in the U.S. presidential elections of 2016, there is a brewing dispute between Guyana and Venezuela in Latin America. As a result of this diverted attention, there are few reports regarding the instability of an already fragile region. The dispute between the two nations centers on the lands west of the Essequibo River of Guyana. This stretch of land covers 40 percent of Guyana’s sovereign territory and, according to experts, is rich in gold, bauxite, diamonds, and other natural resources. The dispute over control of the Essequibo region was initially settled by international arbitration in 1899, awarding the Guyana Government the region. However, the Venezuelan Government has rejected the final decision granting Guyana the Essequibo region; and, since the 19th century, it has been laying claim to this vast mineral rich area, alleging that the decision was fraudulent and therefore null (see map of Guyana)
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Natural Resources, Territorial Disputes, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, Venezuela, and Guyana

43. The Human Terrain System: Operationally Relevant Social Science Research in Iraq and Afghanistan

Author:: Dr. Christopher Sims
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Human Terrain System embedded civilians primarily in brigade combat teams (BCTs) in Iraq and Afghanistan between 2007 and 2014 to act as a collection and dispersal mechanism for sociocultural comprehension. Set against the backdrop of the program’s evolution, the experiences of these social scientists clarifies the U.S. Army’s decision to integrate social scientists at the tactical level in conflict. Based on interviews, program documents, material from Freedom of Information Act requests, and secondary sources, this book finds a series of limiting factors inhibiting social science research at the tactical level, common to both Iraq and Afghanistan. Complexity in integrating civilians into the military decision-making cycle, creating timely research with a high level of fidelity, and making granular research resonate with brigade staff all contributed to inhibiting the overall effect of the Human Terrain System. Yet, while high operational tempo in contested spaces complicates social science research at the tactical level, the author argues that there is a continued requirement for a residual capability to be maintained by the U.S. Army.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, War, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, and United States of America

44. Mastering the Gray Zone: Understanding a Changing Era of Conflict

Author:: Gregory Aftandilian
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: This manuscript examines the increasingly important form of rivalry and statecraft that has become known as “gray zone strategies.” In regions from Eastern Europe to the South China Sea, such tactics in the hands of ambitious regional powers pose a growing challenge to U.S. and allied interests. This monograph aims to provide a broad introduction to the issue to help leaders in the U.S. Army and the wider joint Department of Defense and national security community better understand this challenge. Dr. Michael Mazarr, a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and Associate Program Director of the Army’s Arroyo Center there, defines the issue, examines the most notable current cases of gray zone strategies, offers several hypotheses about the nature of this form of conflict, and suggests a number of policy responses.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, National Security, Politics, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: United States of America

45. Thucydides Was Right: Defining the Future Threat

Author:: Dr. Colin S. Gray
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: To define future threat is, in a sense, an impossible task, yet it is one that must be done. The only sources of empirical evidence accessible are the past and the present; one cannot obtain understanding about the future from the future. The author draws upon the understanding of strategic history obtainable from Thucydides’ great History of the Peloponnesian War. He advises prudence as the operating light for American definition of future threat, and believes that there are historical parallels between the time of Thucydides and our own that can help us avoid much peril. The future must always be unpredictable to us in any detail, but the many and potent continuities in history’s great stream of time can serve to alert us to what may well happen in kind.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, War, and History
Political Geography:: United States of America

46. Transition in Afghanistan: Losing the Forgotten War?

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: On December 29, 2014, the US President and Secretary of Defense announced the formal end to Operation Enduring Freedom, its combat mission in Afghanistan, which had begun in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks. They also stated that the US would begin its follow-on mission, Operation Freedom's Sentinel, at the start of 2015.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Defense Policy, International Security, Military Strategy, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Afghanistan

47. The UN Peacebuilding Architecture: Institutional Evolution in Context

Author:: Sarah Hearn, Alejandra Kubitschek Bujones, and Alischa Kugel
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:: There is a broad agreement that the United Nations’ “Peacebuilding Architecture” (PBA) has failed to live up to the high hopes that existed when the 2005 World Summit agreed to establish the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) and its related entities, the Peacebuilding Support Office (PBSO) and the Peacebuilding Fund (PBF). This paper explores why this is the case. We briefly review the initial logic and expectations of the PBA in part 1, and sketch out the factors that have affected the PBA’s impact both positively and negatively in part 2. We also think it is important to understand the PBA in the context of the evolution and expansion of wider UN peacebuilding efforts, and further detail the existing relationships with UN peace operations in part 3.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. Russia’s New “Frozen” Borderlands: Ukraine, Disputed Sovereignty and Governance Across the Post-Soviet Space

Author:: Alexander Cooley
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Abstract:: Alexander Cooley places the current conflict in Ukraine within a wider context, comparing it to other “frozen” conflicts in the states that emerged from the detritus of the Soviet Union. Is the Ukraine crisis yet another manifestation of a familiar pattern in the post-Soviet states, or is it fundamentally different?
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Sovereignty, Governance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:: Russia and Ukraine

49. Women, Violence and Conflict in Pakistan

Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Eight years into its democratic transition, violence against women is still endemic in Pakistan, amid a climate of impunity and state inaction. Discriminatory legislation and a dysfunctional criminal justice system have put women at grave risk. Targeted by violent extremists with an overt agenda of gender repression, women's security is especially threatened in the conflict zones in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). On 8 March, International Women's Day, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif vowed that his government would take all necessary legislative and administrative steps to protect and empower women. If this pledge was in earnest, his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government should end institutionalised violence and discrimination against women, including by repealing unjust laws, countering extremist threats, particularly in KPK and FATA, and involving women and their specially relevant perspectives in design of state policies directly affecting their security, including strategies to deal with violent extremist groups. Women in the past were the principal victims of state policies to appease violent extremists. After democracy's return, there has been some progress, particularly through progressive legislation, much of it authored by committed women's rights activists in the federal and provincial legislatures, facilitated by their increased numbers in parliament. Yet, the best of laws will provide little protection so long as social attitudes toward women remain biased, police officers are not held accountable for failing to investigate gender-based crimes, the superior judiciary does not hold the subordinate judiciary accountable for failing to give justice to women survivors of violence, and discriminatory laws remain on the books. Laws, many remnants of General Zia-ul-Haq's Islamisation in the 1970s and 1980s, continue to deny women their constitutional right to gender equality and fuel religious intolerance and violence against them. Their access to justice and security will remain elusive so long as legal and administrative barriers to political and economic empowerment remain, particularly the Hudood Ordinances (1979), FATA's Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) (1901) and the Nizam-e-Adl (2009) in KPK's Provincially Administered Tribal Areas (PATA). The government has a constitutional obligation and international commitments, including under the UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women (CEDAW), to combat gender inequality and remove such barriers to women's empowerment. Repealing discriminatory legislation and enforcing laws that protect women, including by ensuring that they have access to a gender-responsive police and courts, are essential to ending the impunity that promotes violence against women. The extent to which rights violations go unpunished is particularly alarming in FATA and KPK, where women are subjected to state-sanctioned discrimination, militant violence, religious extremism and sexual violence. Militants target women's rights activists, political leaders and development workers without consequences. The prevalence of informal justice mechanisms in many parts of Pakistan, particularly in Pakhtunkhwa and FATA, are also highly discriminatory toward women; and the government's indiscriminate military operations, which have displaced millions, have further aggravated the challenges they face in the conflict zones. In KPK and FATA, and indeed countrywide, women's enhanced meaningful presence in decision-making, including political participation as voters and in public office, will be central to sustainable reform. Pakistan should invest in their empowerment and reflect their priorities in all government policies, including counter-insurgency and peacebuilding efforts. All too often, women comprise a majority of both the intended victims of the insurgency and the unintended victims of the counter-insurgency response. National and provincial legislation to enhance protections for women is a step in the right direction, but much more is needed to safeguard them against violence and injustice and ultimately to consolidate Pakistan's democratic transition.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution
Political Geography:: Pakistan

50. South Sudan Keeping Faith with the IGAD Peace Process

Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: For more than eighteen months, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the regional body mediating peace negotiations to end South Sudan’s civil war, has struggled to secure a deal in the face of deep regional divisions and the parties’ truculence. To overcome these challenges, it announced a revised, expanded mediation – “IGAD-PLUS” – including the African Union (AU), UN, China, U.S., UK, European Union (EU), Norway and the IGAD Partners Forum (IPF). The initiative is designed to present a united international front behind IGAD to the warring sides but so far it has failed to gain necessary backing from the wider international community, much of which is disillusioned with both IGAD and the South Sudanese. Rather than distance itself from IGAD, the international community needs to support a realistic, regionally-centred strategy to end the war, underpinned by coordinated threats and inducements. Supporting IGAD-PLUS’ efforts to get the parties’ agreement on a final peace deal in the coming weeks is the best – if imperfect – chance to end the conflict and prevent further regionalisation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Treaties and Agreements, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa

51. Ashraf Ghani’s Pakistan Outreach

Author:: Moeed Yusuf and Scott Smith
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Shortly after entering office at the end of 2014, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani embarked on a bold but controversial policy of sustained conciliation toward Pakistan, with the goal of securing greater cooperation in securing a comprehensive peace with the Afghan Taliban and integrating Afghanistan into the regional economies. Pakistan's tepid response to date, however, has left Ghani politically vulnerable, with his opponents attacking his outreach effort. Time is of the essence. Without meaningful actions soon from Pakistan and robust support from the international community, especially China, the initiative is likely to collapse, with devastating results for Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the broader region
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Power Sharing, and Taliban
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

52. Pakistan's Power Crisis: The Way Forward

Author:: Rashid Aziz and Munawar Baseer Ahmad
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Pakistan’s energy shortages disrupt daily life in the country, and protests and demonstrations against the shortages often turn violent, creating a risk that Pakistan’s energy crisis could threaten peace and stability. Incorporating official and donor perspectives, this report examines the factors in Pakistan’s energy crisis and what can be done to address it.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Energy Policy
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

53. Customary Practice and Restorative Justice in Libya: A Hybrid Approach

Author:: Najla Elmangoush
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Four years after the fall of Muammar Gadhafi, Libya has become even more violent. Explosions, assassinations, kidnappings, and fighting between militias are commonplace. The central government is extremely fragile. This report highlights some of the opportunities and obstacles in a transitional setting. Its goal is to spark debate among scholars, policymakers, practitioners, and civil society actors about the role of customary law and the potential of restorative justice in a transitional setting.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, and Civil Society
Political Geography:: Libya

54. Theories on Why North Korea Rejects the World

Author:: Victor Cha
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: North Korea last week rejected South Korea’s invitation to attend the Seoul Defense Dialogue in September, denigrating the talks as “puerile.” In the same breath, it also rejected a proposal by National Assembly speaker Chung Ui-hwa for a meeting with his northern counterpart to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the liberation of the Korean Peninsula on Aug. 15. If you ask an Obama administration official about America’s “strategic patience” policy of non-dialogue with North Korea, he or she will tell you that the problem is not an unwillingness on the part of the United States to have dialogue. On the contrary, the Obama administration has tried every channel possible, from six-party talks to personal communications to secret trips, to jump-start a dialogue. But the regime in Pyongyang has rejected all of these.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, and International Security
Political Geography:: United States, South Korea, and North Korea

55. Grappling with the South China Sea Policy Challenge

Author:: Gregory Poling
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) hosted its fifth annual South China Sea conference on July 21, 2015. The event garnered more interest and a considerably larger audience—both in CSIS’s at-capacity conference room and online—than its four predecessors. Interest in the conference reflected the wider discussion on the South China Sea among policy communities in Washington and around the Asia Pacific—discussions that have risen to the top of the strategic agenda in many capitals. This report seeks to grapple with the dual policy challenges—one immediate and one long-term—of the South China Sea disputes, and offers recommendations to U.S. policymakers.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: China

56. Understanding and Countering Violent Extremism in Afghanistan

Author:: Peyton Cooke, Casey Johnson, and Reza Fazli
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Youth recruitment into extremist groups in Afghanistan continues to be a major source of group building. In field studies and interviews conducted in three provinces to elicit views on extremist groups, both violent and nonviolent, and factors thought to induce youth to join such groups, violent extremist groups emerged as unpopular and mistrusted, being perceived as un-Islamic and controlled by foreign powers. Nonetheless, the activities and ideologies of such groups have not been effectively countered by the government of Afghanistan, civil society, or the international community. Programs to counter extreme violence should emphasize the Islamic basis of Afghan civil law, accommodate local differences, and be conducted in partnership with moderate voices and youth, with international organizations remaining in the background
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Terrorism, International Affairs, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

57. An Appraisal of Pakistan’s Anti-Terrorism Act

Author:: Mehwish Rani and Parvez Tariq
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Pakistan passed the Anti-Terrorism Act in 1997 in response to the rising threat of terrorism within its borders. The law was designed to help law enforcement combat terrorism. Instead, conceptual difficulties within the law and procedural problems in implementing it have led to an alarmingly high number of acquittals. This report examines the weaknesses in the Anti-Terrorism Act and suggests ways to improve the law and its application to better fight terrorism in Pakistan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:: Pakistan

58. Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit of Short-term Security and Political Goals

Author:: Nathaniel Myers
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Facing serious crises in the Middle East and beyond, Washington is again turning to foreign aid to help advance urgent short-term security and political priorities. This so-called hard aid entails goals and challenges that are distinct from traditional development and humanitarian aid programs, but Washington is relying on existing aid systems and structures to pursue such work in crisis countries like Syria and Yemen. While this ad hoc approach is administratively and politically convenient, it reduces strategic effectiveness and undercuts long-term development efforts. Both legislative and executive action should be taken to redress these failings.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Syria

59. CSDP in action – What contribution to international security?

Author:: Thierry Trady
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: This Chaillot Paper looks at CSDP operations and missions, and explores how they fit into the broader crisis management environment and multilateral efforts towards international peace. It highlights the inherent constraints facing CSDP and how these inevitably limit its overall impact or degree of success. The paper also examines the EU’s added value and the extent to which CSDP is moving forward at various levels.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, International Security, Peacekeeping, and European Union

60. Europe’s Return to UN Peacekeeping in Africa? Lessons from Mali

Author:: John Karlsrud and Adam C. Smith
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In a break from recent tradition, European member states are currently contributing significant military capabilities to a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operation in Africa. Europeans are providing more than 1,000 troops to the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) by staffing a wide range of operations including an intelligence fusion cell, transport and attack aircraft, and special forces. Yet for European troop-contributing countries (TCCs) that have spent several years working in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations in Afghanistan, participating in a UN mission has been a process of learning and adaptation. For the UN, the contributions of key capabilities by European countries have pushed the UN system to adjust to the higher expectations of the new European TCCs, which has proved difficult in Mali’s complicated operating environment and political situation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa and Mali

61. Reimagining Peacemaking: Women’s Roles in Peace Processes

Author:: Marie O'Reilly, Andrea Ó Súilleabháin, and Thania Paffenholz
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Peace and political transition processes provide key opportunities to transform institutions, structures, and relationships in societies affected by conflict or crises. Despite these wide-ranging implications, women’s participation in formal peacemaking remains low. And empirical evidence regarding the impact of women’s participation on peace has been lacking. The International Peace Institute’s new report, “Reimagining Peacemaking: Women’s Roles in Peace Processes” examines the challenges and opportunities presented by women’s participation in peace and transition processes. It shares new quantitative and qualitative evidence on the impact of this participation and explores models and strategies for strengthening women’s influence throughout mediated processes. Based on research carried out at the International Peace Institute in New York and the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, the new report shows how the lag in women’s participation is linked to broader dilemmas in the peacemaking landscape today. Drawing on a comparative study of forty peace and transition processes from the Broadening Participation Project, it demonstrates that when women are able to effectively influence a peace process, a peace agreement is almost always reached and the agreement is more likely to be implemented. The report also features a case study on two distinct peace processes in the Philippines, where an unprecedented level of women’s participation offers lessons on their influence
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and Women
Political Geography:: Global Focus

62. Silencing the Guns: Strengthening Governance to Prevent, Manage, and Resolve Conflicts in Africa

Author:: Gilbert Khadiagala
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Since independence, African states and organizations have made significant investments in conflict management and resolution tools. So why do some African states and regions remain saddled by conflict and instability? How can African states leverage democratic governance to end wars? The new report Silencing the Guns suggests that the key to ending conflict in Africa lies in fostering effective governance and creating political and economic institutions that can effectively prevent, manage, and resolve conflicts. Author Gilbert Khadiagala unpacks how and why democratic governance is linked to conflict prevention and management, and provides an overview of landmark trends that have influenced governance in Africa since the 1950s. He shows that not all forms of democratic governance reduce conflicts and examines the ways in which “developmental dictatorships,” corruption, and the privatization of security are posing obstacles for governance and peace today.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa

63. State Formation, Humanitarianism, and Institutional Capabilities in South Sudan

Author:: Peter Biar Ajak
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: As South Sudan’s fourth anniversary approaches, the fractured state teeters on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe that has left millions in need of aid as a result of renewed fighting in the ongoing civil war. The relapse into conflict has been an enormous setback for statebuilding, curtailing efforts to ensure that humanitarian relief reaches all civilians in need of it. Through the nexus of humanitarianism and state formation, this issue brief assesses the international humanitarian system’s engagement in South Sudan during the period from statehood in July 2011 to the period immediately prior to the outbreak of the December 2013 crisis. Aside from responding to short-term needs, the author argues that humanitarianism ought to fit into the overall political strategy of supporting the process of state formation. The report outlines the enormous needs and challenges facing South Sudan since independence, its emerging humanitarian crises, and the response of humanitarian actors and donors. It addresses South Sudan’s unique challenges of state formation and the importance of linking long-term state capacity building to aid delivery. To advance aid delivery and improve implementation capacity in South Sudan, the author offers the following recommendations: Meaningfully involve government in the design and execution of aid projects. Finance projects that build on existing capacities at the lower tier of administration. Consider direct cash transfers. Raise local salaries to attract talent into the government. Finance public works projects.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, and Governance
Political Geography:: South Sudan

64. Algeria and Its Neighbours

Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Algeria is emerging as an indispensable broker of stability in North Africa and the Sahel. Where insecurity, foreign meddling and polarisation are on the rise across the region, it has at key moments promoted dialogue and state-building as the best means for lifting neighbours out of crisis, thus to safeguard its own long-term security. What some call Algeria’s “return” to regional politics after a long absence since its “black-decade” civil war in the 1990s has been positive in many respects: its approach of promoting inclusion and compromise to stabilise its neighbours, driven by enlightened self-interest, presents an opportunity for an international system that has struggled to tackle the challenges engendered by the Arab uprisings. Yet, its ambitions have self-imposed limits. A moribund domestic political scene – a regime riven by factionalism and uncertainty over who might succeed an ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika – cast a fog over the political horizon. Relations with other powers with clout in the region, notably Morocco and France, have room for improvement
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation, International Security, and Governance
Political Geography:: Algeria and North Africa

65. Deploying Combined Teams: Lessons Learned from Operational Partnerships in UN Peacekeeping

Author:: Donald C.F. Daniel, Paul D. Williams, and Adam C. Smith
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Only fifteen United Nations’ member states provide more than 60 percent of the 104,000 UN uniformed personnel deployed worldwide. How can a more equitable sharing of the global peacekeeping burden be produced that generates new capabilities for UN operations? Operational partnerships are one potentially useful mechanism to further this agenda. They are partnerships that occur when military units from two or more countries combine to deploy as part of a peacekeeping operation. This report assesses the major benefits and challenges of these partnerships for UN peace operations at both the political and operational levels.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Global Focus

66. Europe’s Return to UN Peacekeeping in Africa? Lessons from Mali

Author:: John Karlsrud and Adam C. Smith
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: In a break from recent tradition, European member states are currently contributing significant military capabilities to a United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operation in Africa. Europeans are providing more than 1,000 troops to the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) by staffing a wide range of operations including an intelligence fusion cell, transport and attack aircraft, and special forces. Yet for European troop-contributing countries (TCCs) that have spent several years working in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) operations in Afghanistan, participating in a UN mission has been a process of learning and adaptation. For the UN, the contributions of key capabilities by European countries have pushed the UN system to adjust to the higher expectations of the new European TCCs, which has proved difficult in Mali’s complicated operating environment and political situation.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, NATO, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Africa and Europe

67. The Basque Conflict and ETA: The Difficulties of an Ending

Author:: Teresa Whitfield
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Violence at the hands of the Basque separatist organization ETA was for many years an anomalous feature of Spain’s transition to democracy. This report, which draws on the author’s book Endgame for ETA: Elusive Peace in the Basque Country (Hurst and Oxford University Press, 2014), explains why this was the case, examines both the factors that contributed to ETA’s October 2011 announcement of an end to violence and the obstacles encountered in moving forward from that announcement to disarmament and dissolution, and extracts lessons relevant for other contexts.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Armed Struggle, Territorial Disputes, and Counter-terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

68. Afghan Economic Policy, Institutions and Society Since 2001

Author:: Paul Fishstein and Murtaza Edries Amiryar
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The general expectation among Afghans after the fall of the Taliban was that the state, equipped with financial resources and technical assistance from the international community, would once again take the lead in the economic sphere. Instead, Kabul adopted a market economy. The move remains controversial in some quarters. This report, derived from interviews conducted in 2015 and 2010, takes stock of the competing ideologies in Afghanistan today with respect to the economy.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

69. Ten Years in Afghanistan’s Pech Valley

Author:: Morgan Wesley
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: The al-Qaeda presence in the Pech valley is greater now than when U.S. forces arrived in 2002, and counterterrorism efforts in the region continue. This report looks at U.S. military involvement in the Pech valley and the lessons it offers both the Afghan National Security Forces and the U.S. military. It is derived from interviews with some three hundred Americans and Afghans, including general officers, unit commanders, members of parliament, district and provincial governors, Afghan interpreters and U.S. and Afghan combat veterans.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

70. The Perception Gap: Reading China's Maritime Objectives in Indo-Pacific Asia

Author:: Linda Jakobson and Rory Medcalf
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Regional security is being adversely affected by a worsening perception gap between China and other regional powers in the Indo-Pacific. What China sees as the legitimate defence of its interests others in the region see as assertive behaviour. There are some real differences in interests between China and other regional players in the Indo-Pacific, but tensions can also be moderated by efforts to address the perception gap.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: China and Australia/Pacific

71. Policing Urban Violence in Pakistan

Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Endemic violence in Pakistan's urban centres signifies the challenges confronting the federal and provincial governments in restoring law and order and consolidating the state's writ. The starkest example is Karachi, which experienced its deadliest year on record in 2013, with 2,700 casualties, mostly in targeted attacks, and possibly 40 per cent of businesses fleeing the city to avoid growing extortion rackets. However, all provincial capitals as well as the national capital suffer from similar problems and threats. A national rethink of overly milita rised policy against crime and militancy is required. Islamabad and the four provincial governments need to develop a coherent policy framework, rooted in providing good governance and strengthening civilian law enforcement, to tackle criminality and the jihadi threat. Until then, criminal gangs and jihadi networks will continue to wreak havoc in the country's big cities and put its stability and still fragile democratic transition at risk.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Crime, and Governance
Political Geography:: Pakistan

72. Mali :réformer ou rechuter

Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Un an après l'intervention française, l'intégrité territoriale et l'ordre constitutionnel ont été rétablis au Mali. Mais la persistance des tensions intercommunautaires et de violences localisées témoigne d'une stabilisation encore précaire du Nord, alors que les forces françaises et onusiennes peinent à consolider leurs progrès en matière de sécurité. Les attentes à l'égard du président Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta sont immenses. Il doit à la fois élaborer un compromis sur le devenir du Nord et engager la réforme d'un Etat affaibli par la crise. Son gouvernement doit aller au-delà des déclarations d'intention et passer à l'action. Pour consolider la situation à court terme, il est tenté de renouer avec un système clientéliste qui a conduit les précédents régimes dans l'impasse. Le président ne peut certes pas tout réformer brusquement mais l'urgence de la stabilisation ne doit ni faire manquer l'occasion d'entamer une réforme profonde de la gouvernance ni occulter la nécessité d'un dialogue véritablement inclusif sur l'avenir du pays.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:: Africa

73. Sudan's Spreading Conf lict (III): The Limits of Darfur's Peace Process

Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The violence in Darfur's decade-old war spiked in 2013, as the mostly Arab militias initially armed by the government to contain the rebellion increasingly escaped Khartoum's control and fought each other. Recent fighting has displaced nearly half a million additional civilians – in all 3.2 million Darfurians need humanitarian help. The Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) signed in Qatar in 2011 is largely unimplemented, notably because it was endorsed by factions with limited political and military influence, blocked by the government and suffered fading international support. The main insurgent groups remain active, have formed an alliance that goes beyond the region and increasingly assert a national agenda. If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country's multiple conflicts, supported by the international community, need to develop a more coherent means of addressing, in parallel, both local conflicts and nationwide stresses, the latter through a comprehensive national dialogue; eschew piecemeal approaches; embrace inclusive talks; and recommit to Sudan's unity.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Africa

74. In the Crossfire: Islamists' Travails in Tunisia

Author:: Anouar Boukhars
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Tunisia is struggling with insecurity, social tensions, and ideological divisions three years after President Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali was ousted during a popular uprising. But the country is making progress on the path to democracy. Islamist and secular politicians have struck a potentially landmark agreement that could get Tunisia's democratic transition back on track. To solidify gains and ensure that a successful Tunisian experiment reverberates across the Arab world, socioeconomic struggles that fuel protests and radicalism must be confronted.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Arabia, North Africa, and Tunisia

75. Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Center of Arab Transitions

Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: The workshop "Democracies in the Making: Egypt at the Centre of Arab Transitions" focused on the analysis of the current phase of the democratic transition in Egypt, dominated by a high level of polarisation. It was organized by EuroMesco, the European Institute of the Meditereanan (IMed) and the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS), wit the support of the Spanish agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID). This was the last of a series of four workshops organised in the framework of a program to strengthen the capacities of think tanks and research institutes in Meditereanan countries, mainly in light of the current democratisation process and regional transformations.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arab Countries, and Egypt

76. Youth Mobilization and Political Constraints in Afghanistan

Author:: Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: As Afghanistan prepares for presidential elections in 2014, many young people are vocal about how the system appears to limit their meaningful participation in politics. Historically, young people in Afghanistan have challenged the status quo. However, it is possible to detect a declining trend from the early twentieth century to the present in the extent to which these challenges have been able to effect change in the political system. This trend has continued despite the technology and social media available to youth today, as the older generation of political leaders continues to monopolize the available political space and act as gatekeepers to that space.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Youth Culture, and Reform
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

77. South Asia Regional Dynamics and Strategic Concerns

Author:: Robert D. Lamb, Sadika Hameed, and Kathryn Mixon
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The United States has a number of interests and values at stake in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, or "South Asia" for the purposes of this analysis. But it also has a broader set of such concerns at stake regionally (in the greater Middle East, Eurasia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia)—and, of course, globally as well. Any long- term policy or strategy frame- work for South Asia needs to be built around the global and regional concerns that are most likely to persist across multiple changes in U.S. political leadership regardless of political party.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, Middle East, and India

78. Iraq in Crisis

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: As events in late December 2013 and early 2014 have made brutally clear, Iraq is a nation in crisis bordering on civil war. It is burdened by a long history of war, internal power struggles, and failed governance. Is also a nation whose failed leadership is now creating a steady increase in the sectarian divisions between Shi'ite and Sunni, and the ethnic divisions between Arab and Kurd.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Insurgency, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:: Russia, Middle East, and Arabia

79. Egypt's Post-Mubarak Predicament

Author:: Ashraf El-Sherif
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Three years after the uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak from power, Egypt continues to grapple with an authoritarian state. Throughout the rise and fall of the Muslim Brotherhood, authoritarian forces remained the key political players. Democratic alternatives have not capitalized on cracks in the system. Prospects for the Brotherhood's political reintegration and a democratization of political Islam are bleak. As long as credible alternatives fail to gain traction, the old state will persist and Egypt's central challenges will remain unresolved.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Political Economy, Regime Change, and Governance
Political Geography:: North Africa and Egypt

80. The Failure of the Security Paradigm in Syria: The human security perspective

Author:: Ari Kerkkänen
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:: Few would dispute the assertion that human security has failed in Syria. Authoritarian regimes in the Arab world have had well-documented deficits in human security emerging from coercive internal politics, a lack of respect for human rights such as freedom of expression, and limited freedom from fear and want. The concept of human security has developed mainly within the domain of UN development policy, but it has also made headway in security policy, being advocated as one approach in international crisis management and peacekeeping. Less attention has been paid to its adaptability in forming the basis for the internal security policy of any given state. The main argument of this paper is that human security principles can be the cornerstones of state security, potentially preventing, mitigating, and remedying security issues within a state that could lead to societal upheaval. The argument is presented by outlining some major developments in the history of modern Syria up to its present state of civil war. The paper shows that the security paradigm exercised in Syria has led to a double failure in which human insecurity has resulted in turmoil for ordinary people and has shattered the authoritarian governance. The paper suggests that the rebuilding of security sectors must be based on the principles of human security, not only in Syria but also in the Arab world at large.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

81. Afghanistan: the view from Russia

Author:: Józef Lang
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:: Russia's current and foreseeable policy towards Afghanistan is multi-vectored, complex and shows, at times, signs of incoherence. Russia views developments in Afghanistan as a strategic challenge and is expressing growing concern over the country's prospects for stability after the withdrawal of ISAF forces by the end of 2014. Russian decision-makers fear that a security vacuum emerging after the withdrawal could destabilise Central Asia and have a negative impact on Russia itself. At the same time, Moscow is concerned with Western military presence in the region, which it regards as interference in its neighbourhood. At tactical level, Russia also sees the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity to secure its interests both regionally (consolidating its influence in Central Asia) and more widely (in terms of its relations with NATO).
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, and Central Asia

82. Left in the Cold? The ELN and Colombia's Peace Talks

Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Whether the National Liberation Army (ELN) joins the current peace process is one of the biggest uncertainties around Colombia's historic opportunity to end decades of deadly conflict. Exploratory contacts continue, and pressure to advance decisively is growing, as the Havana negotiations with the larger Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) approach a decisive point. However, hopes fresh negotiations with the second insurgency were imminent were repeatedly dashed in 2013. Agreeing on an agenda and procedures that satisfy the ELN and are consistent with the Havana frame-work will not be easy. The ELN thinks the government needs to make an overture or risk ongoing conflict; the government believes the ELN must show flexibility or risk being left out. But delay is in neither's long-term interest. A process from which the ELN is missing or to which it comes late would lack an essential element for the construction of sustainable peace. Both sides, therefore, should shift gears to open negotiations soonest, without waiting for a perfect alignment of stars in the long 2014 electoral season.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, War on Drugs, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:: Colombia and Latin America

83. Process Lessons Learned in Yemen's National Dialogue

Author:: Erica Gaston
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: On January 25, Yemen's National Dialogue Conference (NDC) closed after more than ten months of deliberation. The flagship process within Yemen's post-Arab Spring transition, the NDC has been lauded as a positive model of inclusive and constructive negotiation. In Tunisia, Libya, Bahrain, and Sudan, similar national dialogue processes have been mooted or are under way. The NDC made significant progress on a daunting range of governance, structural, and social contract issues. It broke through political and social barriers to engage a broader scope of political parties, actors, and civil society–a precedent that will be difficult to roll back. Despite these achievements, the NDC missed its concluding deadline because of a deadlock over the fundamental dilemma: the future status for southern Yemen and the structure of the Yemeni state. A partial solution was brokered, but only by extending the transition process and leaving tough issues to be resolved later. Meanwhile, other challenges, from unemployment to serious humanitarian shortfalls to rampant insecurity, also remain unresolved. The public has grown increasingly skeptical that either the NDC or the transition process will result in a government that responds to their needs. The verdict is out on the ultimate legacy of the NDC. Even at this early stage, however, the hurdles the NDC has faced may provide lessons for other countries considering such processes. At a minimum, exploring how certain process elements may have contributed to achieving the NDC's goals or not might suggest further areas for research, reflection, or continued engagement in the next stages of transition. Other countries considering a national dialogue should streamline the agenda to the extent possible, weighing carefully which political issues do or do not lend themselves to a large-scale public forum, and ensure an appropriate balance between the national dialogue and other transitional processes.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Islam, Insurgency, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Yemen and Arabia

84. Conditions for a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post-2014

Author:: Khalid Aziz
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:: There are doubts whether the exit of a majority of foreign forces from Afghanistan will help the return of peace to that country. Unlike in the case of the SU withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988, conditions today are more dangerous, and it will be a miracle if the withdrawal is peaceful. The main reason for this is the absence of any reconciliation with the Taliban. This report identifies a minimum set of policies and measures that need to be implemented before successful multiple transitions in Afghanistan can occur. However, the overall picture is not positive, and it is not certain that peace will prevail after foreign troops leave Afghanistan.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Central Asia

85. From Transformation to Mediation: The Arab Spring Reframed

Author:: Richard Youngs
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Politics in the Middle East are increasingly polarized and fragmented. The Arab Spring's citizen-led spirit of reform is still alive, but societies are increasingly torn apart by bitter tensions between Sunni and Shia, secular liberals and Islamists, and governments and civil society. As polarization has deepened, the concern with engaging in dialogue to bridge differences has intensified. The relationship between these mediation efforts and support for systemic reform will be a pivotal factor in the Middle East's future political trajectory.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Islam, Regime Change, Governance, and Sectarianism
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and Arabia

86. Jordan: The Geopolitical Service Provider

Author:: Emmanuel Comolet
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Jordan is in the eye of the Arab cyclone. It remains stable while surrounded by chaotic political situations in Syria, Iraq, Palestine and the Sinai Peninsula. Jordan has not experienced the massive demonstrations aimed at regime change that have been seen elsewhere in the region, and its relative stability has enabled it to cash in on the geo-political services it provides. These services include: hosting refugees from Palestine, Iraq or Syria; remaining a reliable ally for many international powers; featuring a strong army that plays a stabilizing role in the region; serving as an intermediary when neighboring countries need a host or a dealmaker; and providing qualified Jordanian workers to fill open vacancies for companies and countries, especially in the Gulf. The current stability in Jordan matches well its historic capacity to resist and adapt to shocks. However, the contemporary situation of the labor market reveals that the weaknesses observed in the countries having experienced revolutions (e.g., Tunisia and Egypt) are also present in Jordan; labor market participation is low with very few women active, and the unemployment rate of educated young people is worrisome. Both the number of Jordanians working abroad and the number of migrant workers in Jordan show the discrepancy between demand and supply of labor in Jordan. This could become problematic, since the economic situation has been worsening, notably with fewer public jobs available. Hence there is a need for international donors to keep supporting Jordan in a difficult regional environment, for the government of Jordan to wittily manage the balance between Transjordanians and West Bankers in the near future and for new workers to alter their expectations in searching for opportunities outside the public sector.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Democratization, Armed Struggle, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:: Iraq, America, Middle East, Arabia, Syria, and Tunisia

87. Afrique centrale : les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme

Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: La pénétration du pastoralisme qui s'accentue depuis plusieurs années en Afrique centrale génère des conflits à la fois fréquents et ignorés dans un monde rural où l'empreinte de l'Etat est particulièrement faible. Ces conflits s'intensifient sous l'effet conjugué de plusieurs facteurs: l'insécurité croissante, le changement climatique qui pousse les pasteurs toujours plus au sud, l'éclatement des couloirs traditionnels de transhumance, notamment transfrontaliers, l'extension des cultures et l'augmentation des cheptels qui entrainent une compétition accrue sur les ressources naturelles. Même si les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme ne sont pas de même intensité dans les trois pays étudiés dans ce rapport (Tchad, République centrafricaine et République démocratique du Congo), ils ont deux dénominateurs communs : l'impératif d'une prise en compte de ce problème par les pouvoirs publics et la nécessité d'une régulation de la transhumance qui inclue les différents acteurs concernés.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Africa

88. The Flawed Strategic Debate on Syria

Author:: Richard Outzen
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Abstract:: Dating from Bashar al-Asad's first suppression of mass demonstrations in April 2011, the war in Syria is now 3 years old, has killed more than 130,000 Syrians, and displaced nine million Syrians, two million as refugees into neighboring countries. Foreign intervention has increasingly shaped the course of the fighting and will continue to have substantial regional consequences. The complexity of this bitter, nominally internal struggle has dampened American enthusiasm for joining the fray or even paying much attention to Syria, notwithstanding the chemical weapon attacks on Gouta, east of Damascus, last August, which captured the attention of the American people, media, and policy community. With an international taboo broken and a Presidential redline crossed, public debate spiked in August-September 2013 over U.S. interests in Syria and the limits on what we will do to secure them. Debate did not result in a consensus for action.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:: America, Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

89. Second Revolution on Euromaidan: What Next for Ukraine?

Author:: Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: The rapid succession of events in Ukraine is impressive but the story is far from over: the state faces an economic crisis and the risk of default; pro-Russian separatism in Crimea threatens the territorial integrity of the country. How should the new government deal with these old challenges and what role could be envisaged for the EU and the US to assist Ukraine in this difficult moment of its statehood? The main objective of the Ukrainian government should be to stand united to overcome the monumental economic, social and political crisis. The EU and the US should encourage coalition-building initiatives to achieve this end. As for the separatist claims, Kiev needs to be more proactive in accommodating minority rights, while the EU should boost people-to-people contacts and promote cooperation between western and eastern Ukrainian civil society. In order to encourage long-lasting political and social reforms, the EU should begin to talk about Ukraine's membership perspective. On the international level, the West should acknowledge that Russia is part of the problem, but also an indispensable part of the solution. Securing Ukraine's integration within the EU, but maintaining the neutrality of its security posture may be a possible way out.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Economics, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: United States and Ukraine

90. The Roots of Crisis in Northern Lebanon

Author:: Raphaël Lefèvre
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Syria's civil war is having a dramatic impact on its neighbors, particularly Lebanon. The spillover is glaring in the northern city of Tripoli, where street violence is rising, sectarianism is at unprecedented levels, and Sunni extremism is flourishing. This instability threatens to spread to other areas of the country. Yet, Lebanon's problems have as much to do with domestic dynamics as with the unrest in Syria. Lebanese policymakers must address a number of issues that have long been ignored.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Political Violence
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

91. Terminating Security Council Sanctions

Author:: Kristen E. Boon
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: This report assesses the United Nations Security Council's current approach to drawing down sanctions in intrastate war situations. After examining broader questions surrounding the UN's authority to impose sanctions and the corresponding limits on these powers, this report assesses criteria used by the council to terminate sanctions. It observes that multilateral sanctions under the UN Security Council tend to last substantially longer than sanctions by regional organizations, such as the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS); and it argues that short sanctions periods are preferable to long sanctions periods.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Sanctions
Political Geography:: Africa and United Nations

92. South Sudan: A Civil War by Any Other Name

Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: On 15 December 2013 the world's newest state descended into civil war. Continuing fighting has displaced more than 1,000,000 and killed over 10,000 while a humanitarian crisis threatens many more. Both South Sudanese and the international community were ill-prepared to prevent or halt the conflict: the nation's closest allies did little to mediate leadership divisions within the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement's (SPLM). The SPLM and its army (SPLA) quickly split along divisions largely unaddressed from the independence war. Were it not for the intervention of Uganda and allied rebel and militia groups, the SPLA would likely not have been able to hold Juba or recapture lost territory. The war risks tearing the country further apart and is pulling in regional states. Resolving the conflict requires not a quick fix but sustained domestic and international commitment. Governance, including SPLM and SPLA reform and communal relations, must be on the table. Religious and community leaders, civil society and women are critical to this process and must not be excluded.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

93. Counting the Costs: Myanmar's Problematic Census

Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Myanmar's first census in over 30 years, an ambitious project conducted in April 2014 with technical advice from the UN and significant funding from bilateral donors, has proved to be highly controversial and deeply divisive. A process that was largely blind to the political and conflict risks has inflamed ethnic and religious tensions in this diverse country. The release of the inevitably controversial results in the coming months will have to be handled with great sensitivity if further dangers are to be minimised.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance
Political Geography:: Asia and Myanmar

94. Civil Defense Groups

Author:: Bruce "Ossie" Oswald
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Between 1981 and 2007, governments in eighty-eight countries established or supported more than three hundred armed militias to provide security to local communities. Such militias often directly engage in armed conflict and law-and-order activities. A number of state-supported civil defense groups make local communities less secure by refusing to respond to state direction, setting up security apparatuses in competition with state authorities, committing human rights violations, and engaging in criminal behavior. The doctrine of state responsibility and the application of international humanitarian law, international human rights law, and international criminal law obligate the state or states that establish or support civil defense groups to investigate, prosecute, punish, and provide reparations or compensate victims. In many cases, the domestic laws of states are ineffective at holding members of govern¬ments or civil defense groups accountable. Local law enforcement authorities also often fail to investigate or prosecute members of civil defense groups. At present there is no specific international legal instrument to guide the responsible management of relationships between states and civil defense groups. Thus, the international community should develop a legal instrument that specifies the rules and principles that apply to states and civil defense groups and that includes a due diligence framework that focuses on accountability and governance of both states and civil defense groups. Such a framework would enhance the protection and security of communities by setting accountability and governance standards, assisting in security sector reform by establishing benchmarks and evaluation processes, and contributing to the reinforcement of legal rules and principles that apply in armed conflicts. For fragile states or those in a post conflict phase of development, the better management of such forces is likely to build state legitimacy as a provider of security to vulnerable communities.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Defense Policy, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

95. Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014

Author:: Sarah Stern and Anna Mitri
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: EastWest Institute
Abstract:: With the end of the ISAF mandate, Afghanistan will enter the "de-cade of transformation" in late 2014, and assume security for and within the country. The challenges with regard to security and governance are obvious; they attract much political and public attention.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

96. Mediating Transition in Yemen: Achievements and Lessons

Author:: Steven A. Zyck
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Yemen remains the only site of an Arab Spring uprising that has ended in a negotiated agreement and a structured, internationally supported transition process. As Jamal Benomar, the United Nations Special Adviser to the Secretary-General on Yemen, stated, “Yemen was definitely heading towards a Syria-type scenario” before international actors, including the United Nations (UN), helped to shepherd a complex transition process, which continues at the time of writing. Benomar, with support from a wide array of stakeholders, helped avert an escalating conflict in Yemen by stepping in to offer the good offices of the UN secretarygeneral without waiting for the UN Security Council or the embattled Yemeni regime to demand UN action. Benomar's interventions— including bringing Yemen's major political parties together amid the uprising—helped ensure that the country did not devolve into civil war when President Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down after thirty-three years in power. That is, the UN opened a space for dialogue where none had previously been considered possible.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Treaties and Agreements, and Popular Revolt
Political Geography:: Middle East, Arabia, and Syria

97. Problem Discovery as a Collaborative, Creative, and Method-Guided Search for the "Real Problems" as Raw Diamonds of Innovation

Author:: Gerald Steiner
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: This paper poses that the creative search for frequently hidden “real” problems is critical if innovation aims at comprehensive system improvements and changes in thinking paradigms, rather than simple, incremental changes. These hidden real problems can perhaps best be symbolized by raw diamonds, which one strives to find in order to then grind them into sparkling diamonds, i.e. innovation. Currently, problem solving-related research focuses on the analysis and solution of predefined problems, with little emphasis on problem reframing and systemic discovery; moreover, inter- and transdisciplinary collaborations for problem finding and the application of convoluted methods receive little attention. To illustrate the search process for raw diamonds, i.e. the real problem, by way of example, a comprehensive “toolbox of convoluted methods” is applied as part of a comprehensive problem discovery process. The Planetary Model of Collaborative Creativity (PMCC) serves as the conceptual basis for this method-based search for the real problems. It shows that this toolbox requires 1) Collaborative effort; 2) Comprehensive competences (personal, professional domain, systemic, creativity, and sociocultural competences); and 3) A circular creative problem solving process, which is embedded within a sequential working process.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Theory, and Natural Resources

98. Using Special Envoys In High-Stakes Conflict Diplomacy

Author:: Princeton N. Lyman and Robert M. Beecroft
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:: Special envoys or representatives (SE/SRs) have been used by nearly every administration to address high-stakes conflicts. They are most useful when a conflict situation is of major importance to the United States, has strong regional as well as bilateral aspects, and exceeds the State Department's capacity to address it. To be effective, an SE/SR must be recognizably empowered by the president and the secretary of state, have clear mandates, and enjoy a degree of latitude beyond normal bureaucratic restrictions. While the secretary of state needs to be actively engaged in the conflict resolution process, the envoy should be sufficiently empowered to ensure that the secretary's interventions are strategic. Chemistry matters: in minimizing tensions between the SE/SR and the relevant State Department regional bureau and with ambassadors in the field, in overcoming State- White House rivalries over policy control, and in mobilizing support of allies. There are no “cookie cutter” solutions to overlapping responsibilities and the envoy's need for staff and resources; rather, mutual respect and flexibility are key. Senior State Department officials have the required skills for assignments as SE/SRs. Enhancing the department's resources and reinforcing the ranks of senior department posi¬tions would increase such appointments and the department's capacity to support them.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: United States

99. After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies

Author:: Florence Gaub
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:: The Arab Spring had a military dimension in both its targets—regimes with a military background—and its outcomes. Where the armed forces in their entirety or partially sided with the protesters regime change succeeded; where they did not, it failed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East and Arabia

100. Resetting Pakistan's Relations with Afghanistan

Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan have been largely characterised by mutual mistrust and devised through a narrow security prism. While it will require considerable effort to end deep-seated animosity, both countries share close ethnic, linguistic, religious and economic ties. Longstanding Afghan migration to the territories that now compose Pakistan makes them an integral part of Pakistani society. Yet, military-devised interventionist policies, based on perceived national security interests, including support for Afghan, mainly Pashtun, proxies, have marred the relationship. The incoming Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai has offered to expand bilateral ties, providing Islamabad fresh opportunities to improve the relationship. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has responded positively, but the Pakistani military and civilian leadership's preferences toward Kabul are diverging further as Afghanistan's transition draws closer. By recalibrating relations toward economic ties and seeking solutions to the presence of millions of Afghan refugees on its soil, Pakistan could engage more constructively with its neighbour.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS