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81. China Facing Domestic Economic Challenges and Trade War with the U.S.

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
A session of China’s parliament in March confirmed that the main source of the country’s economic growth in 2025 is to be state-supported industrial production, including the development of the high-tech sector, along with increasing domestic consumption and exports. The shape of China’s economic policy will be influenced by, among other things, the course of the trade conflict with the United States. For the EU, China’s economic plans imply the need to further protect the single market and increase competitiveness.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, Trade Wars, and Industry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

82. When the Facts Change: The Future of the Global Monetary System

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
This paper considers possible futures for the international monetary system in light of recent economic and political events in the United States and globally. It contrasts scenarios pre- and post-inauguration of the second Trump administration. Earlier scenarios foresaw very gradual rebalancing of the international monetary system away from post-Bretton Woods dollar-centric international financial architecture. Recent developments have pointed toward the possibility of a more abrupt shift away from a system centred on the dollar and the US correspondent banking system. The paper considers economic, financial, geopolitical and technological considerations bearing on possible futures.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Geopolitics, and Dollar
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

83. Welcoming the tired and poor: Grassroots associations and immigrant assimilation during the age of mass migration

Author:
Davide M. Coluccia
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
I examine the impact of the Progressive-era Settlement movement on immigrant assimilation in the United States between 1880 and 1940. Settlements provided services such as job training and childcare to immigrants. Using an individual-level triple difference strategy based on cross-cohort and over-time variation in settlement exposure, I find that settlements increased labor force participation and income for men but not for women. These responses persisted into the generation exposed to settlements during childhood. The gendered effects stem from increased fertility and in-group marriage that excluded women from labor markets, particularly among immigrants from countries with more conservative gender norms.
Topic:
Politics, History, Immigration, Labor Market, Grassroots Organizing, and Assimilation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

84. Political polarization and US-Mexico migration

Author:
María Esther Caballero, Giuseppe Ippedico, and Giovanni Peri
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the “Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad” data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, including undocumented immigrants, across US commuting zones. We find that a 10-percentage point increase in the Republican vote share in a commuting zone reduced inflows by 1.8 percent after the 2016 Trump election. The internal relocation of established Mexican immigrants primarily explains this reduction, though inflows of new immigrants decreased as well.
Topic:
Migration, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Deportation, and Polarization
Political Geography:
North America, Mexico, and United States of America

85. Iranian Public Opinion Soon After the Twelve-Day War

Author:
Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) has been conducting in-depth surveys of Iranian public opinion on nuclear issues, regional security, economics, domestic politics, and other topics since the summer of 2014. This report probes attitudes in late September and early October 2025, a few months after the June 2025 Twelve-Day War. This survey found notable signs of the "rally-round-the-flag effect" that many observers were commenting on at that time, including very positive appraisals of some aspects of their government’s and military’s performance during the war. The findings also include multiple indicators of political and economic discontent, but these measures were largely unchanged from the previous year. Much of the report covers attitudes towards Iran’s nuclear program in the context of broader views on national security. Three-quarters held that President Trump used negotiations with Iran to buy time while Israel and the United States prepared to attack Iran. Large majorities maintained that their military fought back successfully during the Twelve-Day War when no other country provided meaningful assistance. Support for Iran’s missile program has hit a record high, and for the first time, a slim majority of Iranians favored having a nuclear deterrent, not just a peaceful nuclear program. Attitudes regarding the possibilities of more military strikes, tougher sanctions, and further negotiations with the United States indicated both continued resistance to coercion, and some openness to compromise if given credible reassurance.
Topic:
National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Public Opinion, Deterrence, Armed Conflict, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

86. Management practices, competition, and multi-product firms in developing countries

Author:
Victor Gimenez-Perales and Alina Mulyukova
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We study how liberalization and competition affect firms’ output and product scope depending on management practices. In a model of multi-product firms, we show that firms with better management practices specialize in fewer products with lower marginal costs. The model predicts that, under increased competition, firms with better management practices are less adversely affected by competition, especially in heterogeneous sectors. Evidence from India’s de-reservation policy supports these predictions. Our simulations estimate a 0.29% welfare gain in India from the policy. The same policy could increase welfare by 0.39% in an environment with better management practices, such as the US, highlighting the management practices’ role in liberalization outcomes.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Business, Innovation, Management, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and United States of America

87. Sovereign vs. Corporate Debt and Default: More Similar Than You Think

Author:
Gita Gopinath, Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. We use rich new data to compare high-yield US corporate (“junk”) bonds to high-yield emerging market sovereign bonds 2002-2021. Investor experiences in these two asset classes were surprisingly aligned, with (i) similar average excess returns, (ii) similar average risk-return patterns (Sharpe ratios), (iii) similar default frequency, and (iv) comparable haircuts. A notable difference is that the average default duration is higher for sovereigns. Moreover, the two markets co-move differently with domestic and global factors. US “junk” bond yields are more closely linked to US market conditions such as US stock returns, US stock price volatility (VIX), or US monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Default, and Corporate Bonds
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

88. Spatial distribution of housing liquidity

Author:
Francisco Amaral, Mark Toth, and Jonas Zdrzalek
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between location, liquidity, and prices in housing markets. We construct spatial datasets for German and U.S. cities and show that liquidity and prices decline with distance to the city center. To rationalize these results, we build a structural model with spatial search frictions. We argue that location preferences concentrate buyers in central areas, making markets tighter, more liquid, and driving up prices. Counterfactuals show that suppressing search frictions raises welfare and prices, especially in peripheral areas. Our findings highlight the importance of demand-side preferences and search frictions for understanding liquidity and asset prices.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Markets, Cities, Housing, Real Estate, Liquidity, and Assets
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

89. Turkey and Israel – Cooperation through Gritted Teeth

Author:
Joseph Epstein
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the shadow of Israel's Operation "Rising Lion" against Iran, the latest edition of Turkeyscope features Joseph Epstein's analysis of recent developments in Israeli-Turkish relations. Azerbaijan's mediation, pragmatic signals from Syria's new leadership, and strong U.S. encouragement are helping both nations identify mutual interests.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and United States of America

90. The AI Bubble and the U.S. Economy: How Long Do ‘Hallucinations’ Last?

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The U.S. is undergoing an extraordinary, AI-fueled economic boom: The stock market is soaring thanks to exceptionally high valuations of AI-related tech firms, which are fueling economic growth by the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars they are spending on data centers and other AI infrastructure. The AI investment boom is based on the belief that AI will make workers and firms significantly more productive, which will in turn boost corporate profits to unprecedented levels. But evidence is piling up that generative AI (GenAI) is failing to deliver. This paper argues that (i) we have reached “peak GenAI” in terms of current Large Language Models (LLMs); scaling (building more data centers and using more chips) will not take us further to the goal of “Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI); returns are diminishing rapidly; (ii) the AI-LLM industry and the larger U.S. economy are experiencing a speculative bubble, which is about to burst (because of the first point); and (iii) the U.S. bet the farm on a future dominated by U.S.-owned AGI, because, for geopolitical reasons, it could not afford to risk to lose the AI-race with China; this geopolitical bet on AGI is now going bad.
Topic:
Water, Geopolitics, Economy, Profit, Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, Energy, Large Language Models (LLMs), ChatGPT, and Speculative Bubbles
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

91. Is Fedwire Still a Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?

Author:
William Bergman
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper examines the Federal Reserve’s current financial losses—unprecedented in scale—and the questionable accounting practices it uses to downplay their impact. It argues that the Fed’s selfdefined accounting standards, particularly the creation of a “deferred asset” to mask negative equity, obscure the fiscal consequences for the U.S. government and taxpayers. The analysis connects today’s losses to longstanding institutional practices, notably the Fed’s flawed costrecovery accounting for its Fedwire payment system. These issues first emerged in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the author, then a Fed staffer, challenged the internal logic used to claim that Fedwire guaranteed payments and still avoided subsidies. The paper includes as an appendix the original 2002 draft, “Fedwire: A Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?”, which helped reveal the moral hazard and accounting inconsistencies that contributed to the 2008 crisis and continue to shape central bank risk and governance today
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve, Regulation, Central Bank, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

92. Historical American Political Finance Data at the National Archives: A Preface to the INET Edition

Author:
Thomas Ferguson
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Narratives in American history, politics, and economics — even those by the most accomplished researchers — often resemble donuts: at their core lies a hole that no amount of sweet speculation can truly fill. They say almost nothing about the financing behind even the most pivotal American political campaigns and elections. Both history and the social sciences suffer greatly when facts are missing and wild guesses take their place. INET’s new data archive of historical political finance records at the National Archives marks a major step toward filling this factual void. It assembles all campaign finance reports filed by political parties and presidential candidates up to 1974, the year before the Federal Election Commission was established. A few additional files, including one from the FEC for 1976, are also included, as detailed below. This INET Working Paper outlines what users need to know to navigate the archive effectively and locate the data they require.
Topic:
History, Elections, Regulation, and Political Finance
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

93. US-China Rivalry: Constructing Virtual Borders in Cyberspace Through War of Narratives

Author:
Dibakar De, NagaLaxmi M Raman, and Sitakanta Mishra
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Cyberspace has redefined national borders, prompting a rethink of traditional concepts of territoriality. In this digital realm, nations can leverage technological advancements to expand their influence beyond physical borders. This article begins by discussing the rapid emergence of narratives in cyberspace, before exploring the concept of territoriality in a virtual landscape and the roles played by both state and non-state actors. The rest of the article explores a range of aspects, including covert operations, fintech policies, divisions in emerging technologies such as AI, tech diplomacy, export control, and space-based digital infrastructure, to establish the notion of ideological and political fragmentation within cyberspace. Finally, it discusses the various strategies employed by the US, China and other actors to exploit the fragmentation of cyberspace for their own national benefit.
Topic:
Borders, Digital Revolution, Rivalry, Cyberspace, Public Diplomacy, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

94. Facing off Trump’s coercive bargaining: Preparing Europe’s response and retaliation to ‘Liberation Day’

Author:
Ian Hernandez, Varg Folkman, and Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements must be understood not simply as a trade war but as an attempt to reshape the global economic system and to coerce partners through a logic of coercive bargaining. On par with all other countries, Europe is a target and a prey to the US. In this paper, we suggest that there are two fundamental aims the EU must pursue: taking leadership in salvaging the open economic order and increase its capacity to withstand coercive bargaining in defence of own interests. We also consider what the US negotiation strategy entails. While Trump struck a considered ‘madman’ pose to frighten trade partners into making unfavourable deals, he also postponed the tariffs in response to the spectre of a market crash and credit crunch. In the face of fundamental uncertainty, the EU’s tightrope act consists of preparing to negotiate through the threat of retaliation but also preparing for negotiations to fail. We argue for holding off and buying time, letting the Americans reap what they sow, while preparing a vigorous “one date, one strike”- retaliation together with a term sheet for a reciprocal economic deal, making clear European red lines in any rapprochement. We map out various tools and instruments the EU can avail of to push back against US trade aggression. The Union is not without means to fight back against Trump’s coercive approach. The bloc’s Trade Enforcement Regulation allows for a wide set of responses to the trade measures we are seeing from the US. Even more far reaching is the Anti-Coercion Instrument. Additionally, the EU can strike US services trade by tightening digital rules and addressing intellectual property and tax shifting. While increasing trade barriers with partners is a sticking point, the EU must also consider safeguard measures to protect European domestic industries from Chinese overcapacities and trade diversion. Although unlikely at the moment, we also suggest further opportunities, such as pursuing economic security deals with the US. Along with like-minded partners, the EU could also take action to counter Trump, including reinvigorating ideas around a ‘WTO 2.0’. The gravity of the moment should not be lost on us. Europe faces the prospect of a fundamental shift in global economic flows and systems, along with the risk of an international economic crisis. Facing this onslaught will take effort, unity and collective action.
Topic:
European Union, Tariffs, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Coercion
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

95. Towards a Trade War in 2025: Real Threats for the World Economy, False Promises for the US

Author:
Antoine Bouët, Leysa Maty Sall, and Yu Zheng
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Using the MIRAGE-Power model, we simulate a trade war initiated in 2025 by the new US administration. The central scenario consists in a 60 percentage point tariff increase on all US imports from China, a 10 percentage point tariff increase on all products from other partners, except Canada and Mexico, and reciprocal tariff retaliation. World GDP and world trade decrease respectively by 0.5% and 3.4% in volume, with significant losses for the US and China, and gains for Canada and Mexico. A substantial reallocation of bilateral goods trade flows is taking place at global level. Additional scenarios show that: details of the tariff reform matter; the discriminatory tariff treatment of China benefits other trading partners; trade retaliation increases US economic losses; if Non-Tariff Measures are included in this trade war, the consequences are worse; if Canada and Mexico are included in the trade war, both experience significant losses in terms of GDP and trade. Last, we show that the US will not be able to replace the federal income tax with tariff revenues, even with a revenue-maximizing tariff.
Topic:
GDP, Economy, Tariffs, Trade Wars, Trade, and Retaliation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

96. Addressing Maritime Security in Smaller South Asian States: Opportunities for US, Indian, and International Partnerships

Author:
Frank O'Donnell
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Under the dominant US paradigm of great-power competition, the maritime domain as a concept can often be viewed as shorthand for maintaining open access to sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and assuring sufficient deterrence against Chinese and Russian maritime coercion. The December 2020 joint US Navy, Marines, and Coast Guard Maritime Strategy emphasized these points. While these issues are important, this framing downplays two key US and global security factors. These firstly include the broader, multidimensional, and often interactive set of maritime security challenges – such as illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, piracy, smuggling, disastrous climatic changes, and insufficient maritime law enforcement capacities – experienced by most world states, as opposed to a reductive, classical focus on the comparative naval and maritime force balances among the few international and regional powers. The second is the rising populations and economic influence of these smaller states, meaning their risk exposure to these maritime security threats poses deeper consequences beyond their borders and regions. It also means that, in an increasingly multipolar world, these states will have growing agency to select key relationships to nurture, and to decline or distance themselves from others. For great-power competition strategists, partnering with these states on their maritime security priorities as they define them will be critical to improving their own resilience and their ability to secure the global commons. Moreover, it will help nurture the durable relationships, based on mutual understanding, that each of the expert authors in this Occasional Paper special series argue their focal states are seeking. Such efforts should not be viewed as mutually exclusive with a preferred focus on high-end naval and maritime competition with rival powers, but a fundamental element of a successful grand strategy.
Topic:
Security, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and United States of America

97. Navigating Global Value Chains and Economics in 2025: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing IndoPacific

Author:
Thanh Nha Nguyen
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Vietnam has emerged as an indispensable link in Indo-Pacific manufacturing networks. The country’s strategic advantage lies in its ability to adapt to shifting policies while mitigating risks from trade frictions. To sustain these gains, Vietnam must invest strategically in long-term competitiveness by upgrading workforce skills, improving infrastructure, and climbing the value chain through enhanced design and innovation capabilities. Vietnam’s adaptability has made it a prime beneficiary of the ongoing realignment in global supply chains driven by US trade policy changes. Tariffs on Chinese goods and broader efforts to "de-risk" supply lines have prompted many manufacturers to expand operations in Vietnam, sharply boosting exports and investment. By 2023, Vietnam had vaulted from the 12th- to 7th-largest exporter to the United States, as US imports from Vietnam rose by nearly 35 percent year-on-year. High-profile firms, including Samsung, Apple contractors, and major textile producers, have accelerated investments in Vietnam, solidifying its role as a preferred “China+1” manufacturing base.
Topic:
Economics, Manufacturing, and Global Value Chains
Political Geography:
Vietnam, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

98. Asean y la UE. Estrategias y oportunidades para Indonesia y España

Author:
Dayu Nirma Amurwanti and Alodia Pérez
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Fundación Alternativas
Abstract:
Este documento analiza el potencial de fortalecer las relaciones entre la Unión Europea (UE) y la ASEAN, destacando el rol estratégico de España e Indonesia. Ambos bloques comparten valores como el multilateralismo y enfrentan desafíos comunes como el cambio climático, la tensión entre EE. UU. y China, y la necesidad de integración comercial. España e Indonesia, potencias marítimas y economías emergentes, pueden liderar iniciativas en defensa, comercio, digitalización, educación e innovación. Se propone revitalizar la cooperación bilateral, avanzar en nuevos acuerdos de defensa y vigilancia marítima. Además, se destaca la urgencia de concluir el Acuerdo de Asociación Económica UE-Indonesia, promoviendo el comercio y la inversión verde. En educación y cultura, se plantea intensificar los intercambios universitarios e investigaciones conjuntas. Finalmente, se sugiere elevar la relación bilateral a una Asociación Estratégica y fomentar una agenda común en foros multilaterales para un orden global más justo y cooperativo.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, Economy, Multilateralism, and Industry
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, Spain, United States of America, and ASEAN

99. Iran’s Cryptocurrency Economy in Crisis: Financial Implications of Cyberattacks on the Nobitex Exchange

Author:
Avi Davidi
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Iranian regime is currently grappling with an unprecedented economic and energy crisis that is directly impacting its domestic, regional, and international policies. One of the clearest manifestations of this crisis is the severe damage inflicted on the financial system during the war with Israel—particularly in the sphere of cryptocurrencies. Cyberattacks targeted both central banks and Nobitex, Iran’s largest crypto exchange, from which approximately $90 million was stolen in a June 2025 cyberattack. As a result, crypto trading volume in Iran fell by about 70 percent in July 2025 compared to the previous year. In addition, Israeli and U.S. authorities have recently taken measures against Iranian financing infrastructures that rely on cryptocurrencies. In September 2025, Israel’s National Bureau for Counter-Terror Financing (NBCTF) announced the addresses of 187 USDT wallets it had identified as belonging to the IRGC.[1] Following the disclosure, the UK-based compliance firm Elliptic published an analysis showing that these wallets had received $1.5 billion in USDT. The analysis noted, however, that it could not determine whether the funds had in fact been used by the IRGC.[2] At the same time, the U.S. Treasury Department issued designations against a broad Iranian oil-export network that was evading American sanctions. This network employed a wide array of front companies operating in multiple countries to facilitate illicit trade in Iranian oil. According to the announcement, two Iranian nationals played a central role in the scheme by purchasing roughly $100 million worth of cryptocurrencies between 2023 and 2025 as payment to the Iranian government for oil. The network’s cryptocurrency fundraising activity was also used by the regime to transfer money to Hezbollah-linked entities, thereby contributing not only to sanctions evasion but also directly to the financing of terrorism.[3] This paper examines the consequences of the June 2025 cyberattack on Nobitex for Iran’s ability to rely on cryptocurrencies to preserve economic and social stability, as well as to facilitate strategic trade—including in security and military components—at a time of continued international sanctions. The developments in Iran’s crypto sector highlight its growing importance for the Iranian economy—both for those seeking to evade the international sanctions regime, including regime actors such as the IRGC and oil traders, and for ordinary citizens trying to preserve the value of their savings. At the same time, they underscore the vulnerabilities and problems inherent in relying on cryptocurrencies, as well as the importance of U.S. and Israeli efforts to address this system in order to prevent its illicit use by the regime and to undermine it.
Topic:
Cybersecurity, Economy, Cryptocurrencies, Economic Crisis, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

100. Qatar Positions Itself as Washington’s Preferred Mediator

Author:
Ariel Admoni
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
From Congo to Gaza, Doha positions itself as indispensable to U.S. policy, even as it sustains ties to terrorist organizations
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Middle East, North America, Qatar, and United States of America