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61. The political scene in Israel a year before the Knesset elections

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026 will be the first chance for Israeli political forces to renew their social mandate since the Gaza Strip war began. Polls show that Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition may lose its majority. This could prompt the government to use foreign policy more for electoral purposes. The opposition’s chances depend on how well it consolidates and how effective the new parties' messages are. External influences on the campaign, especially from the US, will likely intensify.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Knesset, Parliament, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

62. Energy Derussification of Poland's Visegrad Partners

Author:
Łukasz Ogrodnik and Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
While Czechia has moved away from importing Russian energy resources, Hungary and Slovakia remain the most dependent EU countries. As a result of EU and US sanctions against Russia, both countries will have to make efforts to reduce this dependence. This prospect represents an opportunity for Poland to deepen cooperation in its role as a provider of energy security.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Visegrad Group, Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, United States of America, and Czechia

63. Brazil Faces Mounting Pressure from the United States

Author:
Mateusz Piotrowski and Bartłomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
A political motivation was the main driver of the U.S. measures against Brazil and its authorities in July and August, as President Donald Trump tried to protect former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro from criminal charges of plotting a coup d’état. The Trump administration responded to Bolsonaro’s conviction on 11 September with new threats and additional sanctions. The Brazilian government will intensify its attempts at dialogue with the U.S. and seek support from other BRICS+ members, among other partners, and assistance for domestic industries affected by the punitive U.S. tariffs. The conflict with the United States will influence the course of the campaign ahead of next year’s general elections in Brazil.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Sanctions, Elections, Tariffs, Coup, Donald Trump, BRICS, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and United States of America

64. U.S. Implements "Reciprocal" Tariffs, Significantly Altering Foreign Trade Conditions

Author:
Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
After a suspension period, the so-called reciprocal tariffs came into force on 7 August, establishing new conditions for trade between the U.S. and its partners. This will increase predictability in international trade, but will also likely weaken global economic growth. The diversity and complexity of the regulations may hinder their implementation and undermine the principles of international trade within the WTO system.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, Tariffs, and WTO
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

65. U.S. Fosters Rwanda-Congo Peace Deal for Mineral Rights

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
On 27 June in Washington, the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda signed a peace agreement, reached under U.S. auspices. It is based on a “security for minerals” formula. Although it carries the promise of development by linking the economies of the DRC, Rwanda, and the U.S. in the extractive sector, the chances of its full implementation are slim.
Topic:
Security, Bilateral Relations, Economy, Extractive Industries, and Critical Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa, Rwanda, United States of America, and Congo

66. Development cooperation at a tipping point: how, why and through what mechanisms do policy norms break?

Author:
Andy Sumner and Stephan Klingebiel
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper applies the concepts and theories of “policy norms” to the disruptive effects of the second Trump administration on global development cooperation. We argue that recent US actions represent more than a domestic political shift. They signal a tipping point to longstanding norms of the development cooperation system and specifically multilateralism as well as notions of global solidarity. This paper's objective is to explain how, why and through which political and institutional mechanisms policy norms break down or are reconstituted in global development cooperation. It uses the current moment as a case study of “norm antipreneurship”, potentially even “norm imperialism” illustrating the political and institutional strategies through which policy norms are currently being contested, dismantled or displaced. This paper addresses a set of questions: (i) What are the core mechanisms through which development cooperation norms are formed, contested and fragmented? (ii) How is the second Trump administration seeking to reshape normative regimes in development cooperation? (iii) What research agenda is needed to understand norm change in a multipolar and contested development cooperation landscape?
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Multilateralism, Donald Trump, and Multipolarity
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

67. China Facing Domestic Economic Challenges and Trade War with the U.S.

Author:
Marcin Przychodniak
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
A session of China’s parliament in March confirmed that the main source of the country’s economic growth in 2025 is to be state-supported industrial production, including the development of the high-tech sector, along with increasing domestic consumption and exports. The shape of China’s economic policy will be influenced by, among other things, the course of the trade conflict with the United States. For the EU, China’s economic plans imply the need to further protect the single market and increase competitiveness.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Growth, Trade Wars, and Industry
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

68. When the Facts Change: The Future of the Global Monetary System

Author:
Barry Eichengreen
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
This paper considers possible futures for the international monetary system in light of recent economic and political events in the United States and globally. It contrasts scenarios pre- and post-inauguration of the second Trump administration. Earlier scenarios foresaw very gradual rebalancing of the international monetary system away from post-Bretton Woods dollar-centric international financial architecture. Recent developments have pointed toward the possibility of a more abrupt shift away from a system centred on the dollar and the US correspondent banking system. The paper considers economic, financial, geopolitical and technological considerations bearing on possible futures.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Geopolitics, and Dollar
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

69. Welcoming the tired and poor: Grassroots associations and immigrant assimilation during the age of mass migration

Author:
Davide M. Coluccia
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
I examine the impact of the Progressive-era Settlement movement on immigrant assimilation in the United States between 1880 and 1940. Settlements provided services such as job training and childcare to immigrants. Using an individual-level triple difference strategy based on cross-cohort and over-time variation in settlement exposure, I find that settlements increased labor force participation and income for men but not for women. These responses persisted into the generation exposed to settlements during childhood. The gendered effects stem from increased fertility and in-group marriage that excluded women from labor markets, particularly among immigrants from countries with more conservative gender norms.
Topic:
Politics, History, Immigration, Labor Market, Grassroots Organizing, and Assimilation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

70. Political polarization and US-Mexico migration

Author:
María Esther Caballero, Giuseppe Ippedico, and Giovanni Peri
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We study how the US presidential election of 2016 affected the subsequent inflow of Mexican-born immigrants. We use the “Matricula Consular de Alta Seguridad” data to construct proxies for annual inflows and internal movements of Mexican-born individuals, including undocumented immigrants, across US commuting zones. We find that a 10-percentage point increase in the Republican vote share in a commuting zone reduced inflows by 1.8 percent after the 2016 Trump election. The internal relocation of established Mexican immigrants primarily explains this reduction, though inflows of new immigrants decreased as well.
Topic:
Migration, Domestic Politics, Donald Trump, Deportation, and Polarization
Political Geography:
North America, Mexico, and United States of America

71. Iranian Public Opinion Soon After the Twelve-Day War

Author:
Nancy Gallagher, Clay Ramsay, and Ebrahim Mohseni
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) has been conducting in-depth surveys of Iranian public opinion on nuclear issues, regional security, economics, domestic politics, and other topics since the summer of 2014. This report probes attitudes in late September and early October 2025, a few months after the June 2025 Twelve-Day War. This survey found notable signs of the "rally-round-the-flag effect" that many observers were commenting on at that time, including very positive appraisals of some aspects of their government’s and military’s performance during the war. The findings also include multiple indicators of political and economic discontent, but these measures were largely unchanged from the previous year. Much of the report covers attitudes towards Iran’s nuclear program in the context of broader views on national security. Three-quarters held that President Trump used negotiations with Iran to buy time while Israel and the United States prepared to attack Iran. Large majorities maintained that their military fought back successfully during the Twelve-Day War when no other country provided meaningful assistance. Support for Iran’s missile program has hit a record high, and for the first time, a slim majority of Iranians favored having a nuclear deterrent, not just a peaceful nuclear program. Attitudes regarding the possibilities of more military strikes, tougher sanctions, and further negotiations with the United States indicated both continued resistance to coercion, and some openness to compromise if given credible reassurance.
Topic:
National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Public Opinion, Deterrence, Armed Conflict, and Nuclear Energy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, and United States of America

72. Management practices, competition, and multi-product firms in developing countries

Author:
Victor Gimenez-Perales and Alina Mulyukova
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We study how liberalization and competition affect firms’ output and product scope depending on management practices. In a model of multi-product firms, we show that firms with better management practices specialize in fewer products with lower marginal costs. The model predicts that, under increased competition, firms with better management practices are less adversely affected by competition, especially in heterogeneous sectors. Evidence from India’s de-reservation policy supports these predictions. Our simulations estimate a 0.29% welfare gain in India from the policy. The same policy could increase welfare by 0.39% in an environment with better management practices, such as the US, highlighting the management practices’ role in liberalization outcomes.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Business, Innovation, Management, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and United States of America

73. Sovereign vs. Corporate Debt and Default: More Similar Than You Think

Author:
Gita Gopinath, Josefin Meyer, Carmen Reinhart, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Theory suggests that corporate and sovereign bonds are fundamentally different, also because sovereign debt has no bankruptcy mechanism and is hard to enforce. We show empirically that the two assets are more similar than you think, at least when it comes to high-yield bonds over the past 20 years. We use rich new data to compare high-yield US corporate (“junk”) bonds to high-yield emerging market sovereign bonds 2002-2021. Investor experiences in these two asset classes were surprisingly aligned, with (i) similar average excess returns, (ii) similar average risk-return patterns (Sharpe ratios), (iii) similar default frequency, and (iv) comparable haircuts. A notable difference is that the average default duration is higher for sovereigns. Moreover, the two markets co-move differently with domestic and global factors. US “junk” bond yields are more closely linked to US market conditions such as US stock returns, US stock price volatility (VIX), or US monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Default, and Corporate Bonds
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

74. Spatial distribution of housing liquidity

Author:
Francisco Amaral, Mark Toth, and Jonas Zdrzalek
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between location, liquidity, and prices in housing markets. We construct spatial datasets for German and U.S. cities and show that liquidity and prices decline with distance to the city center. To rationalize these results, we build a structural model with spatial search frictions. We argue that location preferences concentrate buyers in central areas, making markets tighter, more liquid, and driving up prices. Counterfactuals show that suppressing search frictions raises welfare and prices, especially in peripheral areas. Our findings highlight the importance of demand-side preferences and search frictions for understanding liquidity and asset prices.
Topic:
Economics, Financial Markets, Cities, Housing, Real Estate, Liquidity, and Assets
Political Geography:
Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

75. Turkey and Israel – Cooperation through Gritted Teeth

Author:
Joseph Epstein
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the shadow of Israel's Operation "Rising Lion" against Iran, the latest edition of Turkeyscope features Joseph Epstein's analysis of recent developments in Israeli-Turkish relations. Azerbaijan's mediation, pragmatic signals from Syria's new leadership, and strong U.S. encouragement are helping both nations identify mutual interests.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Syrian War, and Mediation
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and United States of America

76. The AI Bubble and the U.S. Economy: How Long Do ‘Hallucinations’ Last?

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The U.S. is undergoing an extraordinary, AI-fueled economic boom: The stock market is soaring thanks to exceptionally high valuations of AI-related tech firms, which are fueling economic growth by the hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars they are spending on data centers and other AI infrastructure. The AI investment boom is based on the belief that AI will make workers and firms significantly more productive, which will in turn boost corporate profits to unprecedented levels. But evidence is piling up that generative AI (GenAI) is failing to deliver. This paper argues that (i) we have reached “peak GenAI” in terms of current Large Language Models (LLMs); scaling (building more data centers and using more chips) will not take us further to the goal of “Artificial General Intelligence” (AGI); returns are diminishing rapidly; (ii) the AI-LLM industry and the larger U.S. economy are experiencing a speculative bubble, which is about to burst (because of the first point); and (iii) the U.S. bet the farm on a future dominated by U.S.-owned AGI, because, for geopolitical reasons, it could not afford to risk to lose the AI-race with China; this geopolitical bet on AGI is now going bad.
Topic:
Water, Geopolitics, Economy, Profit, Artificial Intelligence, Productivity, Energy, Large Language Models (LLMs), ChatGPT, and Speculative Bubbles
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

77. Is Fedwire Still a Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?

Author:
William Bergman
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper examines the Federal Reserve’s current financial losses—unprecedented in scale—and the questionable accounting practices it uses to downplay their impact. It argues that the Fed’s selfdefined accounting standards, particularly the creation of a “deferred asset” to mask negative equity, obscure the fiscal consequences for the U.S. government and taxpayers. The analysis connects today’s losses to longstanding institutional practices, notably the Fed’s flawed costrecovery accounting for its Fedwire payment system. These issues first emerged in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the author, then a Fed staffer, challenged the internal logic used to claim that Fedwire guaranteed payments and still avoided subsidies. The paper includes as an appendix the original 2002 draft, “Fedwire: A Subsidy That Fully Recovers Its Cost?”, which helped reveal the moral hazard and accounting inconsistencies that contributed to the 2008 crisis and continue to shape central bank risk and governance today
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve, Regulation, Central Bank, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

78. Historical American Political Finance Data at the National Archives: A Preface to the INET Edition

Author:
Thomas Ferguson
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Narratives in American history, politics, and economics — even those by the most accomplished researchers — often resemble donuts: at their core lies a hole that no amount of sweet speculation can truly fill. They say almost nothing about the financing behind even the most pivotal American political campaigns and elections. Both history and the social sciences suffer greatly when facts are missing and wild guesses take their place. INET’s new data archive of historical political finance records at the National Archives marks a major step toward filling this factual void. It assembles all campaign finance reports filed by political parties and presidential candidates up to 1974, the year before the Federal Election Commission was established. A few additional files, including one from the FEC for 1976, are also included, as detailed below. This INET Working Paper outlines what users need to know to navigate the archive effectively and locate the data they require.
Topic:
History, Elections, Regulation, and Political Finance
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

79. US-China Rivalry: Constructing Virtual Borders in Cyberspace Through War of Narratives

Author:
Dibakar De, NagaLaxmi M Raman, and Sitakanta Mishra
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Unidad de investigación sobre seguridad y cooperación (UNISCI)
Abstract:
Cyberspace has redefined national borders, prompting a rethink of traditional concepts of territoriality. In this digital realm, nations can leverage technological advancements to expand their influence beyond physical borders. This article begins by discussing the rapid emergence of narratives in cyberspace, before exploring the concept of territoriality in a virtual landscape and the roles played by both state and non-state actors. The rest of the article explores a range of aspects, including covert operations, fintech policies, divisions in emerging technologies such as AI, tech diplomacy, export control, and space-based digital infrastructure, to establish the notion of ideological and political fragmentation within cyberspace. Finally, it discusses the various strategies employed by the US, China and other actors to exploit the fragmentation of cyberspace for their own national benefit.
Topic:
Borders, Digital Revolution, Rivalry, Cyberspace, Public Diplomacy, and Great Powers
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

80. Facing off Trump’s coercive bargaining: Preparing Europe’s response and retaliation to ‘Liberation Day’

Author:
Ian Hernandez, Varg Folkman, and Georg Riekeles
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements must be understood not simply as a trade war but as an attempt to reshape the global economic system and to coerce partners through a logic of coercive bargaining. On par with all other countries, Europe is a target and a prey to the US. In this paper, we suggest that there are two fundamental aims the EU must pursue: taking leadership in salvaging the open economic order and increase its capacity to withstand coercive bargaining in defence of own interests. We also consider what the US negotiation strategy entails. While Trump struck a considered ‘madman’ pose to frighten trade partners into making unfavourable deals, he also postponed the tariffs in response to the spectre of a market crash and credit crunch. In the face of fundamental uncertainty, the EU’s tightrope act consists of preparing to negotiate through the threat of retaliation but also preparing for negotiations to fail. We argue for holding off and buying time, letting the Americans reap what they sow, while preparing a vigorous “one date, one strike”- retaliation together with a term sheet for a reciprocal economic deal, making clear European red lines in any rapprochement. We map out various tools and instruments the EU can avail of to push back against US trade aggression. The Union is not without means to fight back against Trump’s coercive approach. The bloc’s Trade Enforcement Regulation allows for a wide set of responses to the trade measures we are seeing from the US. Even more far reaching is the Anti-Coercion Instrument. Additionally, the EU can strike US services trade by tightening digital rules and addressing intellectual property and tax shifting. While increasing trade barriers with partners is a sticking point, the EU must also consider safeguard measures to protect European domestic industries from Chinese overcapacities and trade diversion. Although unlikely at the moment, we also suggest further opportunities, such as pursuing economic security deals with the US. Along with like-minded partners, the EU could also take action to counter Trump, including reinvigorating ideas around a ‘WTO 2.0’. The gravity of the moment should not be lost on us. Europe faces the prospect of a fundamental shift in global economic flows and systems, along with the risk of an international economic crisis. Facing this onslaught will take effort, unity and collective action.
Topic:
European Union, Tariffs, Trade, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Coercion
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America