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61. TikTok Tactics: 2024 US Candidates Dance Around Security Risks

Author:
Lindsay Gorman, Caitlin Goldenberg, and Isabella Nieminen
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
Despite TikTok’s ongoing national security risks, 2024 candidates in US House, Senate, gubernatorial, and secretary of state races continue to use the platform to reach voters. Since its emergence onto the social media scene in 2016, viral video app TikTok has exploded in popularity, dominating the screentime of a reported one billion monthly active users worldwide today. This year, the app’s user base has made it an all-but-unavoidable tool for US presidential and vice-presidential candidates, who have used TikTok to make their bids to voters. Yet researchers and lawmakers’ initial national security concerns surrounding the potential for malign influence due to TikTok’s ownership ties to the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have only become louder as additional voices in Washington and beyond have joined the chorus. To address these concerns, in 2024 Congress passed and President Biden signed House Resolution (HR) 7521 to force TikTok to divest from its PRC-based parent company ByteDance or face a ban in the United States. This was mere months before the president’s campaign joined the platform itself. As election day fast approaches, a wide swath of federal and state candidates are seeking to leverage TikTok’s popularity with GenZ users. In October 2022, the Alliance for Securing Democracy (ASD) at the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) produced a report documenting how US midterm candidates employed TikTok to reach voters and boost campaign visibility. This year, ahead of the 2024 US general elections in November, ASD and the GMF Technology Program researched the question of whether TikTok use among US Senate, House, gubernatorial, and secretary of state candidates has increased, and how candidates have continued to harness TikTok in campaigns. After two years, Democrats still outweigh Republicans on TikTok use, TikTok’s sluggishness in verifying candidate accounts has worsened, and political TikTok styles are beginning to mature.
Topic:
National Security, Social Media, Domestic Policy, and TikTok
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

62. Pivotal Powers 2024: Innovative Engagement Strategies for Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Sharinee Jagtiani, Kristina Kausch, Garima Mohan, Martin Quencez, Rachel Tausendfreund, and Gesine Weber
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
States outside the transatlantic alliance have gained leverage in international affairs in recent years and, with that, the potential to significantly reshape the global order. Engagement with these "pivotal powers", which include Brazil, Indonesia, India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Türkiye, is of paramount importance for Europe and the United States. "Pivotal Powers 2024: Innovative Engagement Strategies for Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence" offers tactics for enhancing Western cooperation on global challenges with these countries. This report builds on GMF reports from 2012 and 2023.
Topic:
Security, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

63. Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand

Author:
Kazunobu Hayakawa and Sasatra Sudsawasd
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Since the latter half of the 2010s, China’s exports to the United States (US) have gradually decreased due to the US-China trade war and other factors, such as lockdown measures in China to combat COVID-19. This decrease has resulted in increasing exports from third countries, including Thailand, to the US market by substituting China’s exports, i.e. trade diversion. Against this backdrop, this study empirically investigates how the changes in exports to the US driven by the change in China’s exports to the US affect wages in Thailand. Especially, we examine the heterogeneous effects according to workers’ characteristics. To this end, we conduct regression analyses using individual-level quarterly data from the first quarter of 2017 to the second quarter of 2023. Our main finding is that the wage gap between low- and middle-skilled workers decreased, whilst the gap between middle- and high-skilled workers increased. Namely, the increased exports to the US caused ‘wage polarisation’ in Thailand. We also find that the increase in exports to the US contributed to expanding the wage gap by age but narrowing it by gender.
Topic:
Markets, Trade Wars, Exports, and Wages
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Thailand, and United States of America

64. Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino–US Trade Frictions?

Author:
Chien-Chiang Lee and Farzan Yahya
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the spillover and connectedness between the trade policy uncertainty (TPU) of the United States (US), China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea (henceforth, Korea) under global geopolitical risk (GPR), infectious disease equity market volatility (EMVID), and GPR from North Korea (GPRNK) using a relatively novel time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) approach. Additionally, method of moments quantile regression is utilised to estimate the asymmetric effect of GPR, GPRNK, and EMVID on TPU. Our findings suggest that there is a high total and directional spillover amongst underlying variables during Sino–US trade friction that further elevated during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic period. The US is a net receiver of spillover from the TPU of all economies, while the Chinese TPU receives spillover from EMVID. The results further confirm that both the TPU of China (TPUCN) and the TPU of the US (TPUUS) are vulnerable to EMVID, but the effect is stronger for Chinese TPU in the higher quantiles. Although Japanese TPU is less vulnerable to GPR and EMVID, it is significantly exposed to GPRNK. Korean trade shows resiliency and immunity to pandemic-induced volatility and GPRNK.
Topic:
Trade Wars, Trade Policy, COVID-19, and Spillovers
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, South Korea, and United States of America

65. Black Power and Palestine

Author:
Michael R. Fischbach
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
MAAS alum Dr. Michael R. Fischbach discusses his groundbreaking research on divisions within the 1960s Black Freedom Struggle in America over the Israel-Palestine conflict and how Black Power activists supported the Palestinian struggle for liberation—planting the seeds for transcontinental solidarity that continues today.
Topic:
History, Solidarity, Activism, and Black Power
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

66. Teaching Israel-Palestine

Author:
Khaled Elgindy and Yousef Munayyer
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Two CCAS instructors reflect on their experiences of teaching Palestine in this historic moment.
Topic:
Higher Education, Academia, Teaching, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, and United States of America

67. Teaching in a Time of War

Author:
Nader Hashemi, Jonathan Lincoln, and Fida Adely
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:
Professors Nader Hashemi, Jonathan Lincoln, and Fida Adely, each of whom direct academic centers within Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service, reflect on what it means to educate and care for students in this present moment.*
Topic:
Higher Education, Academia, Teaching, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America

68. Factsheet: Marco Rubio

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Marco Rubio is a US Senator from the state of Florida. He previously ran for President in 2016. He has a documented history of minimizing the issue of Islamophobia, promoting anti-Muslim tropes, and supporting discriminatory policies targeting Muslims. In 2024, President-elect Donald Trump nominated him to serve as Secretary of State.
Topic:
Elections, Islamophobia, Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

69. Factsheet: Sebastian Gorka

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Sebastian Gorka is a political commentator who appears on Salem Radio Network and Newsmax. He previously worked for Fox News and served as the Deputy Assistant to President Donald Trump in 2017. In 2024, President-elect Trump picked Gorka to serve in his second administration as deputy assistant to the president and senior director for counterterrorism. Gorka supports religious profiling, has targeted Muslim civil rights and advocacy groups, and has publicly worn a medal affiliated with a Nazi-linked Hungarian group.
Topic:
Media, Islamophobia, Political Extremism, and Sebastian Gorka
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

70. Factsheet: Mike Huckabee

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Mike Huckabee is the former governor of Arkansas, a Baptist minister, political commentator, and ran to be the Republican presidential candidate in 2008 and 2016. He is a staunch supporter of Israel, has questioned Palestinian identity, supports settlements, and has a history of making anti-Palestinian and Islamophobic statements. In 2024, President-elect Donald Trump picked Huckabee to serve as the United States Ambassador to Israel.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Islamophobia, Donald Trump, and Mike Huckabee
Political Geography:
Palestine, North America, and United States of America

71. Factsheet: Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation (Ekal-USA) is a Houston, Texas-based non-profit organization with over 70 chapters across multiple U.S. cities. It serves as the sister organization of Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation of India (Ekal-India), a Hindu nationalist group that operates single-teacher schools in India. Ekal-India has been accused of promoting hatred towards religious minorities.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Non-profits, Hindu Nationalism, and Ekal Vidyalaya Foundation (Ekal-USA)
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and United States of America

72. Factsheet: Sadhvi Rithambara

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Sadhvi Rithambara is a senior leader in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and is the founder of Param Shakti Peeth, a “charitable organization” in India, which also has two sister organizations in the US, Param Shakti Peeth Of America Foundation and Param Shakti Peeth Of America East Coast (PSPA). Rithambara is a leading figure in the Hindu nationalist movement and her anti-Muslim speeches played a central role in the demolition of the Babri Mosque in the 90s. Leaders of PSP in the US are also affiliated with far-right Hindu nationalist organizations.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Far Right, Charity, Hindu Nationalism, and Sadhvi Rithambara
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and United States of America

73. Factsheet: Elise Stefanik

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Elise Stefanik is a Republican congresswoman from New York. Initially entering politics as a moderate, Stefanik has rebranded herself and become a staunch supporter and defender of President-elect Donald Trump. She has a history of propagating anti-Palestinian narratives, and has supported legislation targeting pro-Palestinian voices. She has also allied with organizations known for promoting Islamophobic and anti-Palestinian views, and has called for defunding entities like UNRWA, labeling it as a “terrorist front.” In 2024, President-elect Trump selected Stefanik to serve as the US Ambassador to the UN.
Topic:
Discrimination, Islamophobia, Far Right, Donald Trump, Republican Party, and Elise Stefanik
Political Geography:
New York, Palestine, North America, and United States of America

74. Artillery in Present and Future High-Intensity Operations

Author:
Elio Calcagno, Bryan Clark, Sam Cranny-Evans, Alessandro Marrone, Nicolò Murgia, and Eugenio Po
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The Ukraine war has highlighted among NATO allies the importance of planning for protracted, large-scale, and high-intensity conflicts. In this context, artillery capabilities have regained significance, with a clear emphasis on survivability, quality, quantity, range, but also on adequate munition stocks and production capacity. However, successful integration into a wider array of capabilities (including long range precision fires) and advanced Intelligence Surveillance Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities are crucial for an effective artillery force. Meanwhile, in the maritime domain, recent events in the Red Sea have shown how naval artillery is gaining a prominent role as a cost-effective solution to defence from drone and swarming threats.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Procurement, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Ukraine, France, Italy, and United States of America

75. Asset Ownership, Rates of Return, and the U.S. Working Class

Author:
Leila Davis and Charalampos Konstantinidis
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
In this paper, we analyze the intersection of asset market participation and inter-class wealth inequality in the United States by showing that working-class households earn lower rates of return on their assets than non-working-class households. We, first, operationalize an empirical definition of working-class status using the Survey of Consumer Finances for 1989-2022. Using this classification, we, second, document that inter-class income and wealth inequality have risen since 1989. Third, we show that, with the exception of business assets, working-class households hold similar asset classes as non-working-class households and receive financial income. However, working-class households receive a 2.5 percentage point lower average rate of return than non-working-class households, conditional on observable demographic and economic differences across classes. This gap reflects differential returns on businesses and real estate. These results suggest that expanded asset market access in the U.S. has conferred unequal benefits by class status and widened inequalities along class lines.
Topic:
Markets, Inequality, Assets, and Working Class
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

76. U.S. Teachers, Overwork and Perceptions of Work-Time Reductions: Evidence from Massachusetts

Author:
Katherine Moos and Noé M. Wiener
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This study is based on four focus group interviews with public school teachers in Massachusetts about reducing work hours as a means of improving their working conditions. Our analysis documents a common experience of overwork, expressed in the focus groups and measured by time-use diaries. Teachers reported long work hours and a significant “mental load”—both of which affect teachers’ quality of life, physical and mental health, relationships with their families, and desire to keep teaching. While participants were union members and therefore experienced with collective bargaining, most approached the issue of overwork as an individual problem that must be solved by setting and maintaining personal boundaries. Focus group participants differed in their assessment of a hypothetical policy proposal for a work-time reduction without a loss of pay for teachers or instructional time for students. While generally supportive of the goal, participants questioned whether contractual reductions would correspond to actual reductions in hours worked. Teachers expressed both eagerness to include work-time reductions in future contracts, as well as skepticism that their districts had the fiscal space or political will to achieve this goal. Discussions revealed that teachers’ professional identities as hard-working and caring “perfectionists” inhibited their policy imaginations with regard to using collective bargaining to win them additional leisure time.
Topic:
Education, Labor Issues, Teachers, and Work
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

77. Implicit Coordination in Sellers’ Inflation: How Cost Shocks Facilitate Price Hikes

Author:
Isabella Weber, Evan Wasner, Markus Lang, Benjamin Braun, and Jens van't Klooster
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Supply shocks are now widely recognized as a driver of the recent inflation bout, but the role of firms’ pricing strategies in propagating input cost shocks remains contested. In this paper, we review the state of the academic debate over sellers’ inflation and assess whether, in line with this theory, economy-wide cost shocks have functioned as an implicit coordination mechanism for firms to hike prices. We use a dataset containing 138,962 corporate earnings call transcripts of 4,823 stock-market listed U.S. corporations from the period 2007-Q1 to 2022-Q2 to conduct sentiment analysis via both dictionary-based natural language processing and a large language model approach. We find that large input price shocks (as well as their co-occurrence with supply constraints) correlate with positive sentiments expressed in executives’ statements about cost increases. Qualitative analysis provides further insights into the reasoning behind executives’ optimism regarding their ability to turn an economy-wide cost shock into an opportunity to raise prices and protect or even increase profits.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Profit, and Corporations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

78. Distributional Implications and Share Ownership of Record Oil and Gas Profits

Author:
Gregor Semienuk, Isabella M. Weber, Iain Weaver, Evan Wasner, Benjamin Braun, Philip B. Holden, Pablo Salas, Jean-Francois Mercure, and Neil R. Edwards
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The 2022 oil and gas crisis resulted in record fossil-fuel profits globally that rehabilitated the oil and gas industry, obstruct the energy transition and contributed to inflation. We analyse the size and the distribution of financial beneficiaries of these unprecedented profits across countries and across wealth groups within the United States, using company income statements and comprehensive ownership data, to construct a global network of shareholdings with 397,619 nodes. We estimate that globally, net income in publicly listed oil and gas companies reached US$916 billion in 2022. The United States was the biggest beneficiary receiving US$301 billion in fossil fuel profits both from domestic extraction and through global shareholding, more than U.S. investments of US$267 billion in the low carbon economy that year. Analyzing the U.S. distribution including privately held US companies, 51% of profits went to the wealthiest 1%, predominantly through direct shareholdings and private company ownership. In contrast the bottom 50% only received 1%. The incremental fossil-fuel profits in 2022 over those in 2021 were enough to increase the disposable income of the wealthiest Americans several percent and compensate a substantial part of their purchasing power loss from inflation that year, thereby exacerbating inflation inequality. Record fossil-fuel profits also reinforce existing racial and ethnic inequalities and inequalities between groups with different educational attainments. Our results also show that only a small share of overall profits benefits institutions that serve the wider public such as pension funds. We discuss how windfall profits taxes could be used to both lower inequality and accelerate the energy transition as increasing geopolitical tensions and climate impacts portend continued volatility in oil and gas markets.
Topic:
Oil, Gas, Inflation, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

79. The Economics of Eliminating Plastic Water Bottles in the United States

Author:
Emily Diaz-Loar
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
As of the most recent 2018 data, U.S. residents purchased more than 70 billion plastic water bottles. On average, this amounts to each U.S. resident buying 214 plastic water bottles during 2018. Virtually all these bottles are manufactured as fossil fuel-based products, and 86 percent are disposed of after only one use. Such fossil fuel-based single-use plastic bottles inflict a range of severe negative impacts on the environment and human health. They leach toxic chemicals into the soil, water and food supply, which in turn contribute to causing various types of cancers as well as infertility, in humans and other species. They also release tiny ‘microplastic’ particles, which have been found in, among other parts of the human body, the carotid artery tissues that supply blood to the brain. Recent research has found that people with microplastics in their carotid artery tissues were twice as likely to have a heart attack, stroke or die from any cause over the next three years than people who had none. Beyond this, plastic bottles litter beaches and roadways, clog water drains, strangle animals and contaminate habitats. It is clear that continuing, and expanding, the consumption of single-use fossil fuel-based plastic water bottles, in the U.S. and elsewhere, is unsustainable. In this study, I examine alternative approaches to phasing out their use. More specifically I consider six possible alternatives to single-use fossil fuel-based plastic water bottles within the U.S. economy. These include: recycling fossil-fuel based bottles; utilizing plants as the raw material for producing ‘bioplastic’ bottles; and producing bottles with materials other than plastics, including paperboard cartons; glass; aluminum; and stainless steel. Of these alternatives, I show that, in terms of both environmental impacts and production costs, the most viable substitutes for single-use fossil-fuel based plastic bottles are reusable bottles made from either aluminum or stainless steel. Overall, aluminum or stainless steel-based bottles can significantly reduce the environmental impacts of water bottles, in particular the chemical toxicity that results from their use. Substituting aluminum or stainless steel-based bottles can also dramatically reduce the levels of waste and raw material extraction associated with fossil fuel-based plastic bottles. Further, I estimate that the costs of producing bottles from either aluminum or stainless steel will fall by over 30 percent in a scenario in which they substitute for 90 percent of the fossil fuel-based single-use plastic bottles now being consumed in the U.S. Overall, my results demonstrate that there are realistic prospects to achieve major environmental and economic benefits through phasing out single-use plastic bottles and creating viable alternatives to their continued use.
Topic:
Economics, Pollution, and Plastic
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

80. Do Abortion Bans Affect Reproductive and Infant Health? Evidence from Texas’s 2021 Ban and its Impact on Health Disparities

Author:
Raymond Caraher
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The overturning of Roe v. Wade led to a wave of abortion bans in state legislatures across the United States. This emergence of a restrictive reproductive health policy environment has the potential to affect a wide range of reproductive health outcomes. This paper uses Texas’s 2021 6- week ban on abortion as a case study to examine the causal effect of an abortion ban on reproductive health outcomes, specifically abortion rates, fertility rates, and infant health outcomes. It examines how these effects may be heterogeneous by group, especially focusing on how the effects of abortion bans on reproductive health may be concentrated in those who are already facing disparities in reproductive health outcomes such as Black women. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, the analysis finds that the ban decreased abortion rates by over 40 percent, and increased fertility rates by about 4 percent, with the largest increases for Black non-Hispanic women and for counties far from a state with less restrictive abortion laws. This paper then constructs a measure of unmet reproductive health needs after an abortion ban, and finds that the unmet needs after the Texas 6-week ban are largest in counties with higher proportions of Black non-Hispanic residents, as well as counties which are furthest away from states which did not ban abortion after the Dobbs decision. The analysis then examines the effect of the ban on infant health outcomes, specifically focusing on heterogeneity in the effect of the ban on birth weight and infant mortality. This paper finds that the ban led to increases in the probability of an infant being born with very low birth weight of about 7 percent, with Black non-Hispanic infants experiencing the largest increases in the likelihood of very low birth weight. Additionally, the analysis finds significant increases in the infant mortality rate of about 6 percent after the abortion ban, again with Black non-Hispanic infants experiencing the largest increases in mortality. Further, the ban increased infant mortality rates more in counties which are further away from states which did not ban abortion after the Dobbs decision. The results suggest that the effects of abortion bans tend to be especially concentrated in marginalized populations, as well as those who are least able to shift their fertility options away from in-state abortions after a ban. The analysis shows that the trend towards an increasing number abortion bans will further exacerbate disparities in reproductive health outcomes.
Topic:
Public Health, Reproductive Health, and Abortion
Political Geography:
Texas and United States of America