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41. EU-Taiwan Relations: Navigating PRC Pressure, U.S.-China Competition, and Trump’s Foreign Policy

Author:
Simona Grano
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
This paper first explores the growing relationship between the European Union and Taiwan by focusing on recent interactions. It then discusses the broader geopolitical implications of Trump’s “America First” policy and how the U.S.-China competition impacts the EU’s ability to strategically balance the China-Taiwan dynamic. The paper demonstrates how a number of variables, including Europe’s strategic interests in the region, the U.S. position on China, and the U.S.-EU relationship under the second Trump administration, will influence ties between the EU and Taiwan. The shift in EU-Taiwan ties has gone largely unnoticed. The EU has started paying more attention to Taiwan’s security, shifting away from its former focus on China for its importance in trade and investment. This shift is partly due to supply chain and security concerns and partly due to growing political apprehension about China’s long-term goals. In the coming years, Europe will be influenced by the Trump administration when deciding how to handle Taiwan. The EU will have to find a balance between the need for steady access to vital technology and U.S.-EU relations. At the same time, the EU and the United States seem to have entered a critical phase in their bilateral relationship, especially concerning the war in Ukraine and Washington’s warming relationship with Moscow. This indeterminate situation may also impact the EU’s relationship with both Taiwan and China, the consequences of which will take several months to fully gauge.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, Donald Trump, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, and United States of America

42. China’s Views on Escalation and Crisis Management and Implications for the United States

Author:
Lyle Morris
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
China lacks experience dealing with military crises and has attempted to compensate by investing considerable intellectual capital to develop theories and strategies for managing escalation with potential adversaries. China’s military strategists believe that if a crisis breaks out, it can be “controlled,” and escalation can be “managed” by applying scientific principles and advanced military technology. People’s Liberation Army strategists have developed a conceptual framework for managing crises called “effective control” (youxiao kongzhi) — a flexible, graduated tool designed to guide political and military action during times of tension. Due to an overreliance on theoretical underpinnings, China believes it can control all facets of military escalation. This could make China’s leaders overconfident in their ability to prevail in a conflict and increase the risk of escalation in a military confrontation between China and the United States. The writings of Chinese military strategists omit how China’s behavior may be perceived — or misperceived — by an adversary. Absent is an acknowledgment that China’s actions, such as in space or cyberspace, may be viewed as provocative and grounds for the tit-for-tat escalation that Beijing seeks to avoid. Further research is necessary to explore the actions that China’s military may employ to manage escalation and how adversaries may interpret them.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, Escalation, and People's Liberation Army (PLA)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

43. British public opinion on foreign policy: President Trump, Ukraine, China, Defence spending and AUKUS

Author:
Sophia Gaston
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
Results snapshot President Trump Britons support an open and engaged foreign policy role for the United Kingdom. In light of the re-election of President Donald Trump, 40% believe Britain should continue to maintain its current active level of engagement in world affairs, and 23% believe it should play a larger role. Just 16% of Britons support a less active United Kingdom on the world stage. When asked what Britain’s response should be if the United States withdraws its financial and military support from Ukraine, 57% of Britons would endorse the UK either maintaining (35%) or increasing (22%) its contributions to Ukraine. One-fifth would prefer that the UK reduces its contributions to Ukraine. UK–China relations Just a quarter (26%) of Britons support the UK Government’s efforts to increase engagement with China in the pursuit of economic growth and stabilised diplomatic relations. In comparison, 45% of Britons would either prefer to return to the more restricted level of engagement under the previous government (25%) or for the government to reduce its relations with Beijing even further (20%). A large majority of Britons (69%) are concerned about the increasing degree of cooperation between Russia and China. Conservative and Labour voters share similarly high levels of concern, and Britons over 50 years of age are especially troubled about the trend of adversary alignment. Defence and security When asked whether the UK will need to spend more on defence to keep up with current and future global security challenges, a clear two-thirds (64%) of the British people agree. Twenty-nine per cent of Britons strongly agree that defence spending should increase. Just 12% disagree that the UK will need to spend more. The majority of Britons believe that collaboration with allies on defence and security projects like AUKUS will help to make the UK safer (55%) and that partnerships like AUKUS focusing on developing cutting-edge technologies with Britain’s allies will help to make the UK more competitive towards countries like China (59%). Britons are somewhat less persuaded that AUKUS will succeed as a deterrent against Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific, although the largest group of respondents (44%) agree that it will.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Bilateral Relations, Public Opinion, Alliance, AUKUS, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
China, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Australia, and United States of America

44. Hegemony and International Alignment

Author:
Fernando Broner, Alberto Martin, Josefin Meyer, Christoph Trebesch, and Jiaxian Zhou Wu
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This article explores the interplay between economic hegemony and political alignment. Using theoretical and empirical insights from Broner et al. (2024), we posit that hegemonic states, such as the U.S., foster political alignment, which enhances globalization. We use UN voting data to proxy for international alignment and show that hegemons induce alignment. This data has shortcomings, however. UN voting only covers the post-WWII period, refers to a narrow set of issues, and displays little time variation. As for military alliances, they were not widely used before the mid-20th century. We propose an alternative measure of alignment based on international treaties.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Treaties and Agreements, Hegemony, Multipolarity, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

45. Jordan and the October 7th War: Between National Interests and Palestinian Solidarity

Author:
Ronen Yitzhak
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the latest issue of Tel Aviv Notes, Ronen Yitzhak examines the effects of the October 7 war on the politics and stability of Jordan.
Topic:
Politics, Bilateral Relations, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and United States of America

46. The New Geopolitics and South Asia’s Trade Architecture – What Next?

Author:
Ganeshan Wignaraja, Amit Bhandari, and Aliasger Bootwalla
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
Abstract:
Geopolitics is increasingly intertwined with the economic destiny of South Asia. Even before the U.S. tariffs were rolled out, growing polycrises had hit the global economy, which has been struggling since the pandemic. South Asia seems a relatively bright spark of regional trade and growth. This paper analyses South Asia’s trade architecture in the backdrop of a sluggish world economy in the 2020s, and makes recommendations for closer regional economic integration.
Topic:
Economics, Geopolitics, Economic Growth, Tariffs, and Trade
Political Geography:
South Asia and United States of America

47. Delivering on Draghi after Munich: A quantum perspective

Author:
Ulrich Mans
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
In light of shifting transatlantic relations, Europe must assert greater technological sovereignty, with quantum technology emerging as a key strategic domain. The EU already has a strong foundation in quantum, but risks falling behind due to fragmented policies, low private investment, and supply chain dependencies. While recent public investments and initiatives like the Quantum Flagship and Quantum Pact are promising, Europe needs a bold commercialisation strategy and coherent regulatory framework. To secure leadership, the EU must accelerate industry adoption, align member state efforts, and foster global partnerships, including with the US, UK, and Switzerland. Quantum presents a defining test for Europe’s innovation agenda – and a critical opportunity to deliver on the Draghi Report’s call for strategic autonomy.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Innovation, Transatlantic Relations, and Quantum Computing
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

48. Stuck in the Cul-de-Sac: How U.S. Defense Spending Prioritizes Innovation over Deterrence

Author:
Carlton Haelig and Philip Sheers
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Abstract:
or more than a decade, the United States has sought to modernize its military to deter China, but it has become stuck in a developmental cul-de-sac that has allowed China to steadily shift the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific in its favor. Recent U.S. defense budgets have disproportionately invested in long-term developmental programs at the expense of producing sufficient capabilities available for the near term. As a result, today’s Joint Force is smaller, older, and less capable than at any other time in recent history. Over the past 15 years, the average time and cost the Pentagon has taken to field major weapon systems has grown significantly, and the share of research, development, test, and evaluation (RDTE) spending within the broader defense budget has continued to steadily grow. Despite extended periods of very expensive research and development, major weapon systems have frequently failed to enter production on time or in numbers large enough to make a difference for U.S. warfighters. RDTE cost growth has also affected mature programs, where unexpected modernization challenges have interfered with plans to expand production of available capabilities. Bolstering deterrence involves a challenging balance of time horizons: The Department of Defense (DoD) must expand procurement of today’s capabilities to support near-term deterrence but cannot risk sacrificing next-generation modernization programs that sustain America’s long-term military advantage in doing so. As China’s accelerated conventional military buildup places significant pressure on today’s Joint Force, the urgency to close near-term capability gaps has become critical. Reductions in the Joint Force’s overall size and relative conventional capability have opened a dangerous window of opportunity for China. This report finds that the fiscal year (FY) 2026 budget request and one-time reconciliation funding from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (BBB) ultimately fail to make the needed investments to strengthen deterrence in both the near and long term. Instead, the current administration appears to be falling into the same mistake as many previous administrations by prioritizing costly development of next-generation systems at the expense of purchasing and fielding capabilities that are available to fill deterrence gaps today. Moreover, by pursuing modernization through reconciliation, the FY 2026 budget risks subjecting future modernization priorities to the political outcomes of nondefense debates. Absent a return to standard defense budgeting processes, modernization programs that received a down payment from the BBB will likely stall or fail entirely. There are some opportunities in future defense budgets to produce greater numbers of existing high-end capabilities that can meaningfully contribute to deterrence in the near term while pursuing critical long-term modernization investments. This report’s analysis highlights five major capability areas where existing or near-ready capabilities, such as ground-based fires or combat aircraft, can be procured in meaningful quantities and contribute to important missions in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, this analysis highlights important areas, such as hypersonic weapons, in which extensive developmental timelines and exorbitant procurement costs likely preclude near-term contributions to deterrence and in the long term will only be fielded in small quantities. Expanding the U.S. military’s capacity and capability in the near term will likely require both larger budgets and the rapid development and production of complementary, less expensive capabilities. The United States faces a generational inflection point in how it approaches its defense investments. Rather than continue the disproportionate focus on next-generation technologies, the White House, Congress, and the DoD must budget a sustained pivot to purchasing existing capabilities that close near-term deterrence gaps. While this pivot must be balanced with continued investments in long-term modernization, the United States can no longer afford to sacrifice near-term procurement imperatives. Breaking out of the developmental cul-de-sac will require future defense budgets to emphasize procurement and accelerated RDTE across major defense programs.
Topic:
Budget, Innovation, Deterrence, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

49. The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety

Author:
Thierry Mayer, Isabelle Mejean, and Mathias Thoenig
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We develop a model of international trade and geopolitical disputes, embedding a diplomatic game of escalation to conflict within a quantitative model of trade. Bilateral disputes arise exogenously, and rival countries engage in negotiations to avoid war. In equilibrium, negotiations may fail, resulting in conflict. All welfare-relevant geoeconomic factors, such as the realized costs of war, the concessions to prevent it, and the probability of escalation, depend on the opportunity cost of war, itself shaped by observed trade flows. We provide a simple procedure to estimate these factors in a model of trade calibrated to current data. This approach is then used to quantify the geoeconomic factors characterizing the US-China relationship, both historically and under various ``decoupling'' scenarios. We find that the growing US dependence to Chinese products and markets over the past thirty years has increased the cost of geopolitical disputes with China for the US. In this context, decoupling from China through increased tariffs may offer geopolitical benefits. Yet, the analysis highlights a fundamental security dilemma: because export and import dependencies influence bargaining power in negotiations, decoupling may reduce the diplomatic concessions needed to maintain peace but can paradoxically raise the risk of escalation by weakening incentives for restraint.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, Economy, Risk, Fragmentation, Geoeconomics, and Decoupling
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

50. Global Spillovers of US Monetary Policy: New Insights from the Remittance Channel

Author:
Pablo Aguilar-Perez
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper examines the global spillovers of US monetary policy through the remittance channel, in both sending and recipient countries. Using a dataset covering 8 remittance-sending and 41 recipient countries from January 1997 to December 2017, we apply a local projections framework to trace the dynamic effects of unexpected US monetary tightening. We find that remittance outflows decline in advanced economies following policy shocks, illustrating the pro-cyclicality of remittances in source countries and their role in amplifying global financial spillovers. Among recipient countries, our results show that in countries with low to moderate remittance dependence, inflows tend to increase following a contractionary shock – consistent with altruistic or insurance-driven motives. In contrast, remittances decline in highly dependent countries, aligning with self-interest or investment-driven behavior. We find that these heterogeneous responses are shaped by migrant profiles: countries with high remittance dependence typically have a larger share of low-skilled migrants and display more strongly pro-cyclical remittance patterns. In contrast, less dependent countries tend to have more skilled or diversified diasporas, resulting in more stable and less cyclical remittance flows.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Monetary Policy, Economy, and Remittances
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

51. “European Army”: A Thought Experiment

Author:
Lutz Unterseher
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
In nine concise pages, German military analyst Lutz Unterseher provides the strategic orientation, operational modalities, force allocations, institutional framework, overall personnel requirements for active duty and reserves, command organization, and armament composition of an integrated European Union armed force. He then provides a budget for the component parts. The total annual cost is €170 billion, 1% of EU nations’ GDP. Unterseher concludes: It is hardly accidental that the European Union was chosen as the political framework for this force model. Above all, that is because, given Trump-era U.S. policy, NATO in its Atlantic-partnership sense no longer exists. Whether a self-confident “Euro-NATO” can emerge under American pressure and attempts to sow division remains highly questionable. It does, however, seem wise to “carry over” NATO’s infrastructure and communication networks into the authentically European armed forces wherever possible.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Armed Forces, European Union, Transatlantic Relations, Donald Trump, and Defense Spending
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America

52. Securing the Future: The US-Maldives Defense Partnership and Regional Stability

Author:
Matthew House
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The defense relationship between the United States and the Maldives has evolved significantly over the years, culminating in a robust partnership characterized by mutual interests and shared security concerns. This article examines the historical context of this partnership, the bolstering of relations of the current decade, and the future outlook for this critical defense relationship.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Partnerships, and Regional Stability
Political Geography:
North America, Maldives, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

53. Militias Assist PRC-Based Ventures Mining Rare Earth Elements in Myanmar

Author:
Khandakar Tahmid Rejwan
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
People’s Republic of China (PRC)-based firms are expanding rare-earth mining in Myanmar’s Shan and Kachin States by partnering with militias that lease mines, provide security, and tax exports. Satellite imagery shows a rapid increase in rare earth elements (REE) sites since 2015, turning militia-held enclaves into major suppliers of dysprosium, terbium, and other critical minerals for the PRC. As U.S.–PRC competition intensifies, Myanmar’s fragmented sovereignty enables armed groups with ties to Beijing to shape REE supply chains, complicating potential U.S. and Indian efforts to source Burmese minerals.
Topic:
Sovereignty, Natural Resources, Strategic Competition, Militias, Supply Chains, and Rare earth elements (REEs)
Political Geography:
China, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, and United States of America

54. Defense and Security Cooperation as a Pillar of Engagement: US–Vietnam Relations in a Changing Indo-Pacific

Author:
Tu Lai
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The elevation of Vietnam–US relations in September 2023 to a comprehensive strategic partnership (CSP), the highest tier in Vietnam’s current diplomatic hierarchy, not only reflects Hanoi’s ongoing efforts to diversify its international relations but also underscores the strategic weight assigned to its ties with Washington. The CSP would have been improbable without sustained progress in defense and security cooperation, which has served both as a catalyst for mutual trust and as a practical mechanism for advancing more substantive, effective collaboration.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Collaboration, Regional Security, and Strategic Partnerships
Political Geography:
South Asia, Vietnam, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

55. Black Intergenerational Mobility, Libertarian Capitalism, and Authoritarian Government, 1877–1941: A Case Study

Author:
Patrick Mason
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
There are persistent multigenerational Black-white gaps in occupational attainment. These racial differences in intergenerational mobility are not caused by differences in family values and behavior (Mason, 2007). For three decades, I have gathered evidence on my family’s intergenerational transition from enslavement to present social and economic circumstances. Charles and Susan Rollins were 32 and 29 years-old, respectively, as enslavement ended in 1865. During Reconstruction, they accumulated wealth, established a successful dairy and other farming, helped found a church and religious organizations, helped found multiple civic organizations, served on boards affiliated with the local university and high school, were elected to County and State public office, had savings and bank accounts for the entire family, and were leaders among an extensive social network. Jim Crow in the South and anti-black racism in the north stymied upward mobility for the Rollins family for the three generations after Charles and Susan, despite the fact that their descendants obtained greater education than their ancestors, displayed a willingness to relocate 100s of miles away from their home, possessed a culture of achievement (hard work, future orientation, married couple families, etc.), were blessed with exceptional social capital, and, perhaps, the relative advantage of being mulattoes.
Topic:
Race, Authoritarianism, Capitalism, Slavery, Economic Mobility, Libertarianism, and Intergenerational
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

56. The Temporal Demands of Parental Child Care: Evidence from the American Time Use Survey

Author:
Nancy Folbre and Jooyeoun Suh
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Most research on parental time devoted to child care is based on survey questions regarding explicit care activities or co-presence of parents and children in the same room, factors clearly relevant to child development. Time spent keeping an eye and/or ear on young children while engaging in other activities deserves attention for a different reason—it represents an even larger constraint on maternal employment. Analysis of pooled time-diary data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) from 2004-2019 focuses on an underutilized question that asks respondents when own household children under the age of 13 were “in their care,” and shows that reported parental time likely devoted to supervision parental time likely devoted to supervision exceeds time devoted to active care by a factor of 2.9 and is more negatively related to maternal hours in paid employment. In-your-care time is an important indicator of the opportunity costs of motherhood, especially in low-income households unable to purchase or otherwise unable to obtain “babysitting” assistance.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Employment, Inequality, Time, Gender, and Child Care
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

57. The Impact of the War on Drugs on Union Density, 1973-2022

Author:
Michael J. Naples
Publication Date:
07-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The War on Drugs (WoD) notoriously targeted poor people and communities, especially people of color. Its negative impact on the formation and defense of unions has only recently been studied. This paper explores the magnitude of the WoD’s role in increasing arrests and imprisonment, and its long shadow in probation and parole. It details the way it divided workers by race, and hammered the poor under the pretext of fighting drugs. Incorporating unemployment and manufacturing’s employment share, the paper shows that the WoD and the conservative turn it represented contributed substantially to the decline in union density.
Topic:
Race, War on Drugs, Prisons/Penal Systems, Unions, Incarceration, and Probation
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

58. Deterioration of relations between the US and India

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The imposition by Donald Trump’s administration of 50% tariffs on goods from India, a tightened migration policy, as well as the strengthening of US cooperation with Pakistan, have all led to the most serious crisis in Indian-American relations in 25 years. Although both sides will try to ease tensions and return to normal cooperation, the shift in US policy has undermined India's trust in the US. As a result, India will be more willing to cooperate with other partners, including the BRICS countries. It will be important for the EU to strengthen its cooperation with India in order to try to prevent a deeper anti-Western drift in Indian policy.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Donald Trump, and Migration Policy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

59. The political scene in Israel a year before the Knesset elections

Author:
Michał Wojnarowicz
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
The parliamentary elections scheduled for October 2026 will be the first chance for Israeli political forces to renew their social mandate since the Gaza Strip war began. Polls show that Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition may lose its majority. This could prompt the government to use foreign policy more for electoral purposes. The opposition’s chances depend on how well it consolidates and how effective the new parties' messages are. External influences on the campaign, especially from the US, will likely intensify.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Knesset, Parliament, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America

60. Energy Derussification of Poland's Visegrad Partners

Author:
Łukasz Ogrodnik and Tymon Pastucha
Publication Date:
12-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
Abstract:
While Czechia has moved away from importing Russian energy resources, Hungary and Slovakia remain the most dependent EU countries. As a result of EU and US sanctions against Russia, both countries will have to make efforts to reduce this dependence. This prospect represents an opportunity for Poland to deepen cooperation in its role as a provider of energy security.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Visegrad Group, Energy, and Energy Security
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, United States of America, and Czechia