Search

Begin New Search Political Geography United States of America Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 1 Year

121. On U.S.-China Relations & Security

Author:
Lyle Morris and Wu Xinbo
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In the run-up to the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, national security issues are playing a key role in the campaigns of the two candidates — Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. In particular, since China has been identified as the United States biggest “strategic competitor” during both the Trump and Biden administrations, a key question is how will the trajectory of U.S.-China relations will be affected under a Harris or a Trump presidency? This article explores how both candidates will approach China if elected president. In particular, both authors will present U.S. and Chinese perspectives of how both candidates will influence bilateral relations, with a particular focus on national security. The central question to be considered is this: Will there be any discernible changes to U.S. policy towards China under a Harris or a Trump presidency? If so, what changes might be expected? Both authors agree that there will be few differences at the macro level in the China strategies of Harris and Trump: “strategic competition” has become deeply ingrained as the guiding principle within the U.S. national strategy towards China. Furthermore, national security has seeped into U.S. trade and investment policy toward China in recent years, to include greater U.S. export controls on high-technology commodities. Thus, it is likely that both candidates will continue policies that nest national security considerations within an overall economic approach toward China. However, we may expect tactical differences in both candidates’ policies regarding trade and U.S. approaches to alliances. Harris will likely continue policies under a Biden administration that prioritize the central role that U.S. alliances in Asia and Europe play in the world. While Trump will likely inject uncertainty into the role of alliances within strategic competition with China. He will also likely adopt a much more aggressive stance on trade, to possibly include heavy tariffs on China, that may destabilize an already unstable bilateral relationship.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Bilateral Relations, Strategic Competition, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

122. On U.S.-Australia Relations & AUKUS

Author:
Dominique Fraser and Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The forthcoming U.S. presidential election comes at a time of great strategic uncertainty for Australia. Successive governments have said repeatedly that Australia now faces its most complex strategic environment since World War II. A key element of Australia’s response has been to embark on a fundamental re-shaping of the Australian Defence Force. AUKUS, the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, lies at the heart of this transformation. AUKUS is groundbreaking for several reasons, but mainly because it involves the transfer of nuclear submarines to Australia. What also makes the pact remarkable is the length of time it covers — the end point has been set at 2075. This means that a succession of governments will need to sustain support for what is already a complex, ambitious, and expensive endeavor. Every future U.S. election — and for that matter every Australian and UK election — will be highly consequential for AUKUS. However, two things make this November’s election particularly important. It will be the first political test of sustained U.S. political commitment to AUKUS. Whichever candidate wins will be inheriting an agreement they did not sign. Moreover, because President Trump is running there are fears that should he win, his “America First” focus might imperil the agreement. For reasons mostly unrelated to Trump, these fears are probably overstated. Yet, because the next U.S. election will determine the personality and nature of U.S. global leadership, the election will shape Australian public attitudes to an agreement that is already going to entail tough fiscal choices for future Australian governments.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Leadership, Fiscal Policy, Presidential Elections, and AUKUS
Political Geography:
Australia and United States of America

123. On South Asia in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Farwa Aamer and Vivek Mishra
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
In the dynamic landscape of geopolitical shifts, U.S. policy toward South Asia has consistently been a critical area of focus. As the region continues to evolve amid changing political, economic, and security imperatives, the outcomes of the upcoming elections in the United States necessitate a reassessment of strategic priorities and approaches. This article delves into the interplay of continuity and change in the U.S. policy toward South Asia, analyzing the implications of the possible electoral shifts and how the United States can navigate its interests and partnerships in this pivotal region post-election.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Elections, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
South Asia, North America, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

124. Energy justice through policy: A comparison of US and EU approaches

Author:
Cordelia Buchanan Ponczek and Marco Siddi
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
Policymakers have come to consensus on the need to prioritize the low-carbon energy transition. But this comes with costs and questions of fairness. Therefore, policymakers also see transition initiatives as an opportunity to ensure more just outcomes. This has been dubbed the “just energy transition”. But what does a just energy transition mean in practice? How do policymakers bridge the gap between assessed needs – injustices – and policies that correspond to those needs? This Working Paper evaluates and compares EU and US policies aimed at the energy transition and energy justice. It considers the extent to which the European Green Deal (EGD) and the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) attempt to enshrine “energy justice”, as well as the various understandings of the term from the distribution, recognition, and procedure points of view. The paper shows that the EGD is more specific in terms of procedural justice, whereas the IRA includes more explicit clauses pertaining to recognition-based justice. Both highlight elements of distributional justice.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

125. Examining U.S.-Turkish Relations post October 7th

Author:
Joseph Epstein
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Joseph Epstein examines the US-Turkey relationship after October 7th. Erdogan's decision to diplomatically support Hamas has complicated the relationship, adding new challenges amidst a rapidly changing balance of power in the Middle East.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Hamas, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America