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101. Digital legislation: convergence or divergence of models? A comparative look at the European Union, China and the United States

Author:
Aifang Ma
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In 1964, when the Canadian pioneer of media studies, Marshall McLuhan, argued that media is an extension of man, he did not foresee that future media, at the beginning of the 21st century, would produce increasingly pernicious effects[1]. While media have indeed extended human capacities, they have also shown to be generators of complicated social and ethical problems. In the same year philosopher, Herbert Marcuse, who analysed relations between Man and Machine from a deeply pessimistic viewpoint. His predictions seem to be corroborated by what we are now experiencing: the easy life made possible by technological progress has progressively gnawed into the individual critical reasoning. Instead of imposing their control over technologies, human beings are increasingly at their mercy. The domination of technology over individuals is all the stronger, since it seems harmless and is pleasant to use. In this context, the regulation of digital technologies[2] is flourishing in autocracies and democracies alike. Its importance goes far beyond the need of authoritarian regimes to cut off the transmission of destabilising content. It is universal since digital technologies set common challenges to national governments: illegal collection of users’ personal data, precarious working conditions for gig workers, monopolistic practices of large platforms, threats to human dignity and domestic security. These problems are causing trouble to all governments around the world. This article aims to be pragmatic. Beyond differences in political regime, it studies the regulatory approaches of the three largest digital economies in the world: China, the United States, and the European Union. The three models can potentially hinder or stimulate the development of digital technologies without necessarily opposing each other.
Topic:
European Union, Media, Legislation, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

102. The European Union between the United States and China: should we choose between equidistance and following?

Author:
Philippe Etienne
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
The competition between the world's two major powers structures all international relations and influences the choices made by all other countries. The latter fear the consequences of tensions between the two giants and, in the main, want to avoid having to choose. But the problem is not the same everywhere. To put it simply, China benefits in the "global South" from a certain hostility towards the West, while the United States can play on the fear aroused by the emergence of Chinese power, which no longer hesitates to resort to power relations, especially in Eastern Asia[1]. Against this backdrop, Europe is in a delicate situation. It must contend with its assimilation to the United States as being part of the “West” which is increasingly rejected. Although it shares much with its American ally, particularly the values of democracy and security arrangements, it does not always have the same interests as the United States and must preserve its room for manoeuvre if it is not to be dragged into decisions in which it has no part. Before examining how the European Union is facing up to this challenge, and how it should behave in the future, the driving forces and prospects of the Sino-American rivalry require exploration.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, European Union, Global South, and Rivalry
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America

103. Time to Reset the U.S. Trade Agenda

Author:
Peter Harrell
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The strongest argument for rebooting U.S. trade policy ultimately may not be geopolitics, nor even the economic argument that trade deals will help an already-strong U.S economy. Instead, the best argument is that trade is a key element of solving global challenges that affect us all, like the green energy transition and the risks of AI and the digital economy.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Geopolitics, Digital Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Trade Policy, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

104. Inevitable Fractures: The Ukraine War and the Global System

Author:
Ashley J. Tellis
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The divisions in contemporary geopolitics are an inevitable consequence of colliding ideas and interests against the backdrop of American primacy. The United States should accept their reality while advancing its own interests in a competitive strategic environment.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

105. Judging disparities: Recidivism risk, image motives and in-group bias on Wisconsin criminal courts

Author:
Ludovica Ciasullo and Martina Uccioli
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This paper studies racial in-group disparities in Wisconsin, which has one of the highest Black-to-White incarceration rate ratios among all U.S. states. The analysis is motivated by a model in which a judge may want to incarcerate more due to three factors: (1) when the defendant has higher recidivism risk and is more likely to commit future crimes; (2) when the defendant is from a different group (anti-out-group preferences); and (3) when the defendant is of the same group but that group is responsible for a majority of crimes (image motives). Further, a judge may have better information on recidivism risk due to two factors: (4) becoming more experienced, and (5) sharing the same group as the defendant. We take these ideas to new data on 1 million cases from Wisconsin criminal courts, 2005-2017. Using a recidivism risk score that we construct using machine learning tools to predict reoffense, we find evidence that judges do tend to incarcerate defendants with a higher recidivism risk (1). Consistent with judge experience leading to better information on defendant recidivism risk (4), we find that more experienced judges are more responsive in jailing defendants with a high recidivism risk score. Looking at racial disparities between majority (White) and minority (Black) judges and defendants, we find no evidence for anti-out-group bias (2). Consistent with image motives (3), we find that when the minority group is responsible for most crimes, minority-group judges are harsher on their in-group. Finally, consistent with judges having better information on recidivism risk for same-group defendants (5), we find that judges are more responsive to the recidivism risk score for defendants from the same group
Topic:
Law Enforcement, Courts, Incarceration, Structural Racism, and Criminal Recidivism
Political Geography:
North America, Wisconsin, and United States of America

106. Judicial selection and production efficiency: The role of campaign finance

Author:
Mayur Choudhary
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of campaign finance on judicial selection and production efficiency. Using the Supreme Court’s surprise verdict in the Citizens United v. FEC case in 2010, which generates exogenous variation in campaign finance laws, I document that the removal of such bans led to a 33% ($ 200,000) increase in the average electoral expenditure of judicial candidates and increased competition in State Supreme Court judge elections. The judicial bench also becomes populated with more business-friendly judges. State courts decide the majority of labor, contract, and administrative law disputes, and the State Supreme Court has the power to set legal precedents. Therefore, shifts in the judicial bench of the State Supreme Court affect the legal environment and the contracting choices of firms and labor. I document that labor productivity measured as value added per worker increased by 8% in treated states with judicial elections. For sectors more reliant on contract enforcement, labor productivity is higher in states with judicial elections. Overall, removing constraints on electoral finance improves competition in judicial elections, the judicial bench becomes more business-friendly, and improves production efficiency due to the alleviation of contract-enforcement frictions.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Elections, Supreme Court, Judiciary, and Campaign Finance
Political Geography:
United States of America and North America

107. Migration policy preferences and forms of trust in contexts of limited state capacity

Author:
William L. Allen, Matthew D. Bird, Luisa Feline Freier, Isabel Ruiz, and Carlos Vargas-Silva
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Why do citizens hold different migration policy preferences? US and European evidence suggests political trust matters by raising support for more open policies, attenuating concerns about costs and strengthening beliefs in governments’ implementation abilities. However, this may not hold in countries with limited state capacity. Instead, we argue interpersonal trust placed in policy beneficiaries matters more as citizens circumvent weaker institutions. We test this using conjoint experiments in Colombia and Peru—low-capacity countries experiencing large inflows of forcibly-displaced Venezuelans—that vary aspects of migration policies. Political trust selectively moderates preferences on migrants’ employment rights and numerical limits, contributing novel evidence of boundary conditions for this form of trust. By contrast, greater interpersonal trust is linked to more open preferences across all tested domains. Our results cast doubt on the importance of political trust for migration preferences in contexts of limited state capacity, instead highlighting its partial substitution by interpersonal trust.
Topic:
Trust, Migration Policy, and State Capacity
Political Geography:
Europe, Colombia, Venezuela, Peru, and United States of America

108. Foreign influence in US politics

Author:
Marco Grotteria, Max Miller, and S. Lakshmi Naaraayanan
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
This paper documents that foreign lobbying influences US government spending. We introduce a comprehensive dataset of over 230,000 date-stamped, in-person meetings between agents representing foreign governments and individual US legislators, state governors, and employees of US executive agencies from 2000 to 2018. The data suggest that foreign agents meet disproportionately with individuals important for foreign aid and corporate subsidies, like legislators sitting on powerful congressional committees. Foreign agents also maintain connections with legislators even after they depart powerful committees, providing evidence that meetings do not just reflect short-term quid-pro-quo arrangements. Around meetings, foreign countries receive greater amounts of financial aid. Foreign firms whose governments lobby more often also receive larger corporate subsidies from areas the legislators and governors that they meet with represent. Finally, legislators who meet more often with foreign agents receive both monetary and electoral benefits, while we do not find changes in the political contributions they receive or in their probability of re-election, suggesting that legislators are not punished by their constituents for meeting with representatives of foreign countries.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Lobbying, and Foreign Influence
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

109. Spillover effects of the recent US monetary policy shocks on the South African economy: The role of monetary and fiscal policy coordination

Author:
Guangling Liu and Marrium Mustapher
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study examines how different policy mix regimes affect the impact of recent US contractionary monetary policy on South Africa’s inflation and business cycles. The study uses a small open economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with an integrated fiscal block to analyse these effects. Regime M (active monetary policy) is more effective at containing the spillover effects but leads to higher public debt, requiring larger future fiscal surpluses. The commitment to price stability under Regime M increases real interest rates, raising domestic debt service costs and the debt-to-GDP ratio. Regime F (active fiscal policy), in contrast, stabilizes debt more quickly but at the cost of higher inflation, as it does not use future surpluses to manage public debt. These spillover effects are more amplified under both Regime M and Regime F in the case of a complete exchange rate pass-through and a higher degree of trade openness, with Regime F exhibiting a stronger amplification effect.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

110. The Political Economy of Conditionality and the New Industrial Policy

Author:
Fabio Bulfone, Timur Ergen, and Erez Maggor
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Conditionality was a central concern in the development literature of the 1990s. With the massive expansion of targeted public support to private firms since the Great Financial Crisis, the question of conditionality is once again at the center of industrial policy debates. Despite the growing interest in the concept, the existing literature does not provide a systematic conceptualization of conditionality in the context of industrial policy, nor does it outline the political factors that facilitate the introduction of conditionality by state actors. This paper addresses this gap by offering a systematic political economy of conditionality. We provide an overview of the literature on conditionality, focusing on different industries, historical periods, and national contexts. In doing so, we make three contributions to the debate on industrial policy. First, we distinguish between two broad instruments of conditionality: performance standards and corporate control devices. Next, we map the coalitional, institutional, ideational, and global contextual factors that facilitate conditionality. Finally, we offer two vignettes of recent industrial policy initiatives in the EU and the US as illustrative cases. We make two arguments. First, the presence of conditionality is not primarily a technical matter of political design, but is shaped by combinations of political economy factors. Second, industrial policy conditionality provides an important theoretical lens for assessing how and where the recent revival of state activism represents a substantive break from the neoliberal order.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, Political Economy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Conditionality
Political Geography:
Europe and United States of America