Search

Begin New Search Political Geography United Kingdom Content Type Working Paper

1. The Politics of “What Works”: Evidence Incentives and Entrepreneurship in Development Organisations

Author:
Pablo Yanguas
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Over the last two decades, national development agencies have committed to results-based approaches and to putting evidence at the centre of their decision-making. For evidence “optimists”, this is a much-needed corrective to past practice; in contrast, “pessimists” worry about ideology masquerading as science, and results-based approaches contributing to the further depoliticisation of development. This paper argues that reality falls somewhere in between these two extreme interpretations, and that the experiences of development organisations are varied enough to warrant further interrogation, not into whether evidence shapes policymaking, but into how it does so, and whose evidence matters most. The paper seeks to address these questions through an analytical framework that highlights the process of contestation between evidence agendas against a backdrop of policy complexity, professional barriers, and organisational incentives. A brief review of evidence from development cooperation agencies – with spotlight cases from Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom – reveals that institutionalisation and entrepreneurship play a critical role in enabling and shaping evidence-based policymaking. This leads to clear implications for practitioners, whose focus should be not only on getting the right kind of evidence, but on getting the politics of evidence right.
Topic:
Development, Entrepreneurship, and Incentives
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain

2. Fossil Fuel Industry Phase-Out and Just Transition: Designing Policies to Protect Workers’ Living Standards

Author:
Robert Pollin
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper focuses on just transition policies targeted at supporting workers now employed in the fossil fuel industries and ancillary sectors within high-income economies. As a general normative principle, I argue that the overarching aim of such policies should be to protect workers against major losses in their living standards resulting through the fossil fuel industry phase-out. The impacted workers should be provided with three critical guarantees to accomplish this, in the area of jobs, compensation and pensions. Just transition policies should also support workers in the areas of job search, retraining and relocation, but these forms of support should be understood as supplementary. Within the framework of these broad principles, the paper first reviews experiences with transitional policies in Germany, the UK, the EU and, more briefly, Japan and Canada. A critical point that emerges is that these just transition policies do not provide the needed guarantees for assuring workers that they will not experience major living standard declines. The paper then describe an illustrative just transition program for workers that includes reemployment, income and pension guarantees, focusing on a case study for the U.S. state of West Virginia. The results show that the costs of the just transition program for West Virginia’s fossil fuel industry dependent workers will amount to an annual average of about $42,000 per worker, equal to about 0.2 percent of West Virginia’s GDP. I briefly summarize results from the seven other studies of U.S. states and for the overall U.S. economy. For the U.S. economy overall, the just transition program’s costs would total to about 0.015 percent of GDP. These findings demonstrate that providing a generous just transition program does not entail unaffordable levels of public spending. Robust just transition policies should therefore be understood as an entirely realistic prospect for all high-income economies.
Topic:
Political Economy, Labor Issues, European Union, GDP, Economy, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Canada, and Germany

3. The Political Economy of the Cost of Living Crisis in the UK: What Is to Be Done?

Author:
Ozlem Onaran
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the political economy of the cost of living crisis in the context of the United Kingdom. The paper presents the long-term trends in the wage share, wealth inequality, labour’s bargaining power, and real wages in the UK. The first and second waves of inflation in 2021-22 are discussed presenting the trends in the profit margins. The policy responses by the conservative governments and the Bank of England are analyzed, and their limitations are assessed. The paper concludes with short-run and medium-run policy alternatives to the cost of living crisis
Topic:
Political Economy, Labor Issues, Inequality, Inflation, and Cost of Living
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

4. Welfare losses, preferences for redistribution, and political participation: Evidence from the United Kingdom’s age of austerity

Author:
Patricia Justino, Bruno Martorano, and Laura Metzger
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper studies the effect of austerity on forms of political participation—including voting, appealing for reform, and peaceful protesting—and the role of preferences for redistribution in shaping the relationship between individual exposure to austerity and political participation. The paper focuses on the case of the United Kingdom (UK) where, between 2011 and 2019, wide-ranging austerity policies were introduced to deal with high public debt in the aftermath of the 2007–08 financial crisis. Cuts to government spending on public investment, services, and social protection, especially during the initial fiscal consolidation phase of 2011–15, led to significant welfare losses for the population. We provide evidence from observational microeconomic data and a large-scale online experiment in the UK showing that individual exposure to welfare losses from austerity increases political participation and strengthens preferences for government redistribution. The experimental data suggests that changes in individual preferences for redistribution significantly shape the effect of austerity on political participation.
Topic:
Austerity, Welfare, Redistribution, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

5. What Growth Strategies Do Citizens Want? Evidence from a New Survey

Author:
Lucio Baccaro, Bjorn Bremer, and Erik Neimanns
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
While research on the economic characteristics of growth models across countries is now extensive, research on the politics of growth models is still in its infancy, even though governments routinely pursue different strategies to generate growth. In particular, we lack evidence on (1) whether citizens have coherent preferences towards growth strategies, (2) what growth strategies citizens prefer, and (3) what shapes their preferences. We address these questions through a new survey of public opinion in Germany, Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, which exemplify different models. We find that preferences for growth strategies are consistent with other policy preferences and are meaningfully structured by class and retirement status, and to a lesser extent by sector of employment. At the same time, differences across class and sector are small, and a large majority of respondents across countries favor wage-led growth. This suggests there is a “representation gap,” since this particular growth strategy is in crisis everywhere.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Economic Growth, Representation, Macroeconomics, Comparative Capitalism, and Growth Models
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, Italy, and Sweden

6. The Socioeconomic and Gendered Organization of Social Reproduction in the Anglo-American Welfare Model: Transformations in the US and UK over Four Decades

Author:
Katherine Moos and Pilar Gonalons-Pons
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Drawing on both gender regime theory and social reproduction theory, this paper employs survey data to offer a quantitative comparative analysis of the socioeconomic and gendered organization of social reproduction in the United States and United Kingdom from 1973 to 2013. Our analysis focuses on household production, paid work, and government social benefits to examine how men and women of different socioeconomic groups contribute to household social reproduction. We combine data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), the Multinational Time-Use Surveys (MTUS), and additional sources to construct an integrated dataset of harmonized household survey data. We find that household social reproduction in the US and UK reflect variations and path dependence within the Anglo-American model. While our results illustrate important shifts in the organization of social reproduction related to neoliberalism and feminism, we do not observe that social reproduction in either country has been fundamentally destabilized, refamiliarized, or degendered.
Topic:
Welfare, Socioeconomics, Gender, and Social Reproduction
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

7. Pari Passu Lost and Found: The Origins of Sovereign Bankruptcy 1798-1873

Author:
Marc Flandreau
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Verdicts returned by modern courts of justice in the context of sovereign debt lawsuits have upheld a ratable (proportional) interpretation of so-called “pari passu” clauses in debt contracts which, literally, promise creditors they will be dealt with equitably. Such verdicts have given individual creditors the right to interfere with payments to others, in situation where the sovereign had failed to make proportional payments. Contract originalists argue that this interpretation of pari passu clauses has no historical foundation. Historically, they claim, pari passu clauses never granted individual creditors a unilateral right to block payments to other bondholders assenting to a government debt restructuring proposal. This article shows this claim is incorrect. Drawing on novel archival research, it argues that pari passu clauses find one potent historical origin in the operation of a now forgotten sovereign bankruptcy tribunal, the London stock exchange. Under the law of the stock exchange, departure from ratable payments did create a unilateral right for individual creditors to interfere with sovereign debt discharges. In fact, ratable distributions provided the touchstone for the stock exchange sanctioned sovereign debt discharge system. What is more, sophisticated contract drafters availed themselves of the logic. The result was a weaponization of pari passu clauses, and their inscription into sovereign debt covenants in the 19th century. The article concludes that the modern debate on the role of clauses in sovereign debt contracts cannot be held without thorough reconsideration of the history of sovereign bankruptcy.
Topic:
Finance, Banking, Stock Markets, and Sovereign Debt
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and England

8. Separating electricity from gas prices through Green Power Pools: Design options and evolution

Author:
Michael Grubb and Drummond Pike
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper develops a detailed proposal for an efficient way to channel the value of large-scale renewables, which have become much cheaper than gas-driven wholesale electricity prices, to consumers at ‘cost-plus’ prices. This would reduce the fiscal pressure on governments for market- wide subsidies and offer more stable support for consumers most in need. We detail how this ‘green power pool’ approach could interact with the wholesale market to ensure firm power, also bringing transparency to the cost of balancing the variable renewables output, and maintaining incentives for efficient supply and demand responses. We illustrate the approach with reference to the cost and volume trajectories of UK renewables backed by government CfDs, targeted initially to particular consumer groups, as a first step in a wider transition towards direct consumer access to cheap renewables.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, Renewable Energy, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. Post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation on migration and asylum: How to live apart, together

Author:
Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The UK’s withdrawal from the EU has created a policy, legal and operational vacuum in migration and asylum matters which undermines the interests of both sides. There is no more binding framework which defines responsibility for asylum seekers and facilitates transfers between the EU and the UK. Brexit also made it harder to devise and implement effective anti-smuggling strategies with European partners. Despite these gaps, a post-Brexit cooperation agreement is not on the horizon, with structural reforms pursued by each side reflecting conflicting priorities and a growing political disconnect. Following the 2020 proposals of the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, EU member states are still negotiating a mandatory responsibility-sharing mechanism. Meanwhile, in April 2022, the UK overhauled its asylum and immigration law, undercutting safeguards for asylum seekers reaching the country irregularly. The same month, the UK government signed a deal with Rwanda to deport all asylum seekers arriving via the Channel – a move even the European Commission has criticised. Recent post-Brexit tensions over other policy areas, most prominently the Northern Ireland Protocol, have reduced mutual trust to a historic minimum. This makes an ambitious and comprehensive agreement over asylum and migration matters an unlikely prospect for the time being. Yet, as neighbours, the EU and the UK will continue to depend on each other to pursue their respective policy objectives in migration and asylum. So, despite living separately and facing numerous unresolved tensions, the EU and the UK can and should pursue a post-Brexit cooperation framework in these matters. Otherwise, they will both be worse off. As a first step, the two sides should focus on rebuilding trust. This can be achieved by pursuing less contentious goals within immediate reach, such as enhanced anti-smuggling efforts, while also diffusing political tensions across the board. Once an atmosphere of sincere cooperation is restored, as a second step, the EU and the UK should define a broader and more ambitious partnership. Safe and legal channels from the EU to the UK should be re-established. At the same time, equitable solutions for facilitating the return of third-country nationals from the UK to the EU, in full respect of procedural safeguards, should also be found. Although reciprocity would have to be at the heart of this new arrangement, the EU and the UK should go beyond a transactional approach, particularly by strengthening protection pathways and burden-sharing solutions, including with third countries, in line with their international commitments. The European Commission should take the lead in the negotiation of a post-Brexit EU–UK cooperation framework. This would allow the EU to speak with one voice and pursue clear and coherent objectives across the different policy areas concerned. The newly established EU–UK Parliamentary Partnership Assembly should also be involved in the negotiations, helping to democratise the process and achieve a more balanced relationship in the interests of both sides.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, Brexit, and Asylum
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

10. Post-Brexit imports, supply chains, and the effect on consumer prices

Author:
Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh de Lyon, Luisa Opitz, and Dilan Yang
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This report documents the decrease in imports and shows how the patterns of imports vary across sectors following the UK’s departure from the Single Market and Customs Unit at the end of 2020. The authors, Jan David Bakker, Nikhil Datta, Josh De Lyon, Luisa Opitz, and Dilan Yang, focus on comparisons between imports from the EU and imports from non-EU countries. Some products, such as fats, oils, and waxes, experienced a sizeable decrease in trade volumes with EU countries compared to those of non-EU countries in January 2021. Other products, such as minerals, experienced minimal deviation in imports from the EU versus non-EU. We also document that the timing of import changes varies across products: in some cases, the deviation occurs pre-TCA, and there is some evidence of stockpiling; in other cases, the changes only occur post-TCA, and can be either short term or persistent. The fall in imports from the EU will affect the UK economy through its impact on supply chains. Two-thirds of international trade is in products used as inputs to production. We show that imports from the EU fell for products that are used as inputs to production in many industries in the UK. For some sectors such as agriculture, fishing, and car manufacturing, there is evidence that imported inputs began to be sourced from non-EU countries pre-TCA. For others, including vegetable oil, animal fats, prepared animal feeds, and pharmaceuticals, the adjustments occurred post-TCA. Evidence suggests that increased access to intermediate inputs can boost productivity, so a reversal is likely to cause a fall in productivity. Imports also provide cheaper goods to consumers, as well as a wider variety of choice. Focussing on food products, we show that the drop in imports after Brexit caused an increase in prices. Products that were more heavily reliant on imports from the EU increased in price following the election of Boris Johnson in 2019, pre-TCA and then increased further post-TCA. This report therefore shows that changes in imports of goods from the EU have affected UK firms’ supply chains. Part of this change is driven by the adjustment costs incurred as part of the new trading relationship and is likely to be short term, but another part is likely to reflect a long-term increase in the cost of inputs from the EU, which make up a sizable contribution of total imports. This could have a knock-on effect for consumers who will face higher prices, and for workers whose jobs will be affected by adjustments in the supply chain.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Trade, Imports, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

11. Understanding the Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Nigeria

Author:
Helen Dempster, Jennifer Dew, Samuel Huckstep, Martina Castigliono, and Cassandra Zimmer
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration (GCM) calls on countries of destination to both expand regular migration pathways and take steps to increase the development impact of these pathways. Migration can have a positive impact on the economic development of migrants themselves, their families, their countries of origin, and their country of destination, if aspects such as integration, remittances, and skill transfers are prioritized. This paper, produced by the Center for Global Development (CGD) and the UK office of the International Organization for Migration (IOM), outlines lessons for the UK Government to implement if they are to increase the development potential of both their existing and new immigration pathways, particularly in the agriculture, nursing, and green technology sectors
Topic:
Development, Migration, Immigration, and Reform
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

12. Are the effects of terrorism short-lived?

Author:
Vincenzo Bove, Georgios Efthyvoulou, and Harry Pickard
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Numerous studies demonstrate that terrorism causes strong public reactions immediately after the attack, with important implications for democratic institutions and individual well-being. Yet, are these effects short-lived? We answer this question using a quasi-experimental design and data on three successful and three foiled terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom. We find that heightened risk perceptions and emotional reactions in the wake of successful attacks do not dissipate in the very short run but are sustained over time and up to 130 days after the attacks. We also find that, whereas large-scale attacks cause a long-lasting shift in risk assessments and emotions, the corresponding effect of smaller-scale terrorism incidents appears to subside within one month. Interestingly, foiled attacks can also affect public perceptions, which, however, quickly return to normal levels. We argue that the extent of media coverage is partly responsible for the duration of these effects.
Topic:
Terrorism, Emotions, and Risk
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

13. Sign of the Times: How the United Kingdom’s Integrated Review Affects Relations with Africa

Author:
Zainab Usman and Jonathan Glennie
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In March 2021, the British government published a vision document: “Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy.”1 Previously, the government had issued documents on security, defense, development, or foreign policy, but this integrated review bundled together all aspects of policy related to a vision of a so-called Global Britain. This newly integrated approach to policymaking mirrors a strategic consolidation within the UK government, specifically the merger of the Department for International Development (DFID) with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to become a new Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO). While the review is framed as a necessary response to a changing global landscape, domestic political considerations around the British exit from the European Union (Brexit) weigh heavily. The review also points to the current UK government’s inclination to prize geopolitical competition over a previous emphasis on global cooperation. Steep cuts to the UK’s generous foreign aid budget as well as the abolition of DFID have already drawn significant academic, policy, and media attention. Yet these actions are part of a broader UK strategy to redefine the country’s relations to the rest of the world, with significant implications beyond the controversial foreign aid cuts for poor countries, including those in Africa. The review will shape relations with a continent that has deep historical ties from the colonial era, a large diasporic presence, and long-standing economic relations with the UK. This analysis draws out the implications of the UK’s 2021 integrated review for African countries and recommends next steps for African and other international stakeholders to navigate the UK’s overhauled external relations strategy.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Development, and Integration
Political Geography:
Africa and United Kingdom

14. What Next after the Death of Queen Elizabeth II?

Author:
Przemysław Biskup
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The death of Elizabeth II on 8 September closed her 70-year reign. In that time, the United Kingdom underwent deep transformation, including losing its colonial empire, as well as joining and later leaving European integration structures. The succession to the throne may contribute to a further weakening of the UK’s personal union with the 14 Commonwealth monarchies and the British role in this structure. The queen’s passing has also increased the risk of strengthening of separatist movements in Northern Ireland, Wales, and Scotland.
Topic:
Domestic Politics, Separatism, and Monarchy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and British Commonwealth

15. Dealing with the Neighbours: The case for an affiliate membership of the European Union and a new Security Council

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Brexit is proving to be even more troublesome than expected, giving rise to a gradual softening of British public opinion towards the EU. Any future UK government is likely to want to renegotiate parts of the separation deal that Boris Johnson struck with the EU. Reconciliation between Britain and Europe will take time and need careful calibration, however. The EU should prepare for this constructively and use the opportunity of a British renegotiation to review all its other association agreements - none of which are without defect. The question of governance lies at the heart of the problems which impair the EU’s relations with its neighbours. The EEA and Swiss arrangements are in any case due for overhaul and upgrading. The EU’s traditional enlargement policy to the east and south has foundered, and it would be better if this were admitted openly. Not only are candidate countries unable to meet the demands of membership, but the EU itself is too weak to take on the burden of new members. Instead, a new category of affiliate membership should be written into the EU treaties. Affiliation should allow the EU to develop close economic and cultural partnerships with its neighbours in a democratic fashion. Affiliate states would enjoy greater access to the EU institutions than is permitted under any of the current association agreements. Affiliate membership would also be available as an option for any current EU member state which, like the UK, chose not to adhere to the goal of an ever closer union. Such differentiated integration of the wider Europe will require the EU to build stronger federal government at the centre. The new structure should also be underpinned by the establishment of a European Security Council combining EU member and affiliate states with NATO — including Canada and the US — in regular strategic and operational decisions to protect Western security. The French presidency in the first half of 2022 should take the necessary first steps. The Conference on the Future of Europe might consider these proposals.
Topic:
Security, Governance, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

16. Two Birds, One Budget: Using ODA for Influence and Development in the Indo-Pacific?

Author:
Rachael Calleja, Sam Hughes, and Beata Cichocka
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper explores the UK’s proposed “Indo-Pacific tilt” from a development perspective. In light of recent cuts to the UK’s official development assistance (ODA), we ask how the UK can use scarce development resources in the Indo-Pacific more effectively to capitalise on opportunities to support strategic objectives while ensuring that ODA remains squarely focused on development priorities. Our analysis seeks to understand both how the UK is positioned within the Indo-Pacific, which is an already-crowded development landscape, as well as where the UK’s strategic and developmental priorities in the region might meaningfully overlap. We find that while there are some opportunities for the UK to support both development objectives and strategic interests concurrently in the Indo-Pacific—such as in the provision of regional and global public goods—the countries with the greatest strategic value to the UK are not those where additional ODA could contribute most clearly to poverty reduction. We conclude the paper with six policy recommendations. Among others, we propose that the UK should consider partnering with other like-minded providers to maximise its presence in the region.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Infrastructure, and Influence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Indo-Pacific

17. Facilitating Environmental Migration through Humanitarian and Labour Pathways: Recommendations for the UK Government

Author:
Helen Dempster, Amelia Dal Pra, and Mariam Traore Chazalnoel
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The impact of climate change, environmental degradation, and disasters on migration and human mobility is receiving more and more attention, by policymakers, academics, and the press alike. While there are gaps in the evidence base, much suggests that the vast majority of people will seek to move internally and regionally, rather than internationally. That being said, there are good reasons as to why high-income countries may want to facilitate so-called international “environmental migration” by adapting their existing legal and policy frameworks. This paper outlines how countries such as the United States of America (US), Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, and various European countries have explored, created, or adapted their legal and policy frameworks to explicitly respond to international environmental migration, and the lessons learned therein. It concludes with a series of policy recommendations for the government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK) as to how the UK could adapt their own legal and policy frameworks to better respond to international environmental migration.
Topic:
Environment, Migration, Governance, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

18. The EU–UK relationship: It is what it is

Author:
Fabian Zuleeg and Jannike Wachowiak
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement might have pulled both sides back from the brink of a no-deal cliff edge, but it remains a shaky foundation for the next stage of EU–UK relations. Both sides must invest in the relationship and rebuild trust to prevent any conflict from escalating into a tit-for-tat. Or else, they risk the collapse of the deal and the return to a no-deal-like state. In the first months of its new phase, the relationship is already off to a rocky start. The rows over the diplomatic status of the EU mission in London and the Commission’s (now reversed) decision to trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol expose the volatility of the relations and the importance of good communication and trust. The hope for a deal came with the expectation that it would provide the foundation upon which a closer relationship could be constructed over time. It now seems more likely that it will be the basis for a diverging – and at times conflicting – relationship, with little prospect for a significantly closer economic relationship anytime soon. There seems little political appetite on both sides to build on the economic settlement meaningfully, which would require a significant shift of red lines. Previous expectations that a deal would pave the way for outstanding issues, such as the EU granting equivalence for financial services, have also diminished. Given both the political climate and many red lines, the agreed thin economic settlement may be the most we can expect.
Topic:
International Relations, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, and Trade
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

19. Europe after the Brits

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Andrew Duff argues that the loss of the United Kingdom should prompt serious reflection about the constitutional direction of the European Union. The secession of a member state changes the context of European integration. Brexit leaves the EU weaker, smaller and poorer — but it can and should also spur reform. The EU should aim to have major changes in place by 2029, including treaty revision. The reforms should include: (i) a renegotiation of the Brexit deal leading to a new class of affiliate membership; (ii) completion of the constitutional framework for a fiscal union; (iii) a European Parliament fully legitimated by election from transnational lists; and (iv) a ‘European Security Council’ of defence ministers to span the divide between the EU and NATO. The Conference on the Future of Europe may prove to be a useful democratic experiment. But it is not designed to address the important constitutional challenges that the Union faces. Duff therefore proposes creating an expert reflection group to stimulate the full implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon as well as prepare the way for the next Convention which must be called to amend the EU treaties. More immediately, the reflection group should make proposals to settle the controversial matter of how to elect the new President of the European Commission in 2024.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, European Union, Brexit, and Institutions
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

20. After Brexit: Could bilateral agreements facilitate the free movement of persons?

Author:
Diego Acosta
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Some of the millions of EU nationals in the UK and British nationals in the EU are already suffering from Brexit’s drastic curtailment of the right to free movement. How can migration now be governed and facilitated between the two parties? Although an EU-wide agreement with the UK that ensures free movement remains the ideal solution, it is currently unrealistic. This calls for an evaluation of possible alternatives. Bilateral agreements should be explored and examined as a possible alternative to an EU-wide agreement with the UK to facilitate and govern cross-border mobility. Various bilateral free movement agreements across Europe show that their use is not only legal but also habitual. They offer flexibility when it comes to the rights of entry, residency and work, as well as other important rights. And they could also be used as a foundation upon which to build an agreement between the EU as a whole and the UK, if not to facilitate the rebuilding of mutual trust. Migration law expert Diego Acosta makes a further case for Spain being the first possible candidate for a post-Brexit bilateral free movement agreement concluded between an EU member state and the UK. Spain is the most important EU destination for British emigrants, and British migrants residing in Spain constitute the latter’s third-largest non-national population. In turn, the UK is the most important migrant destination for Spanish nationals worldwide, who represent the fifth-largest migrant group from the EU. He offers concrete suggestions as to what a bilateral treaty between Spain and the UK could include. In addition, governments of EU member states that have important reciprocal migration flows with the UK, as well as the UK government, should consider the following recommendations when exploring the possibility of adopting bilateral agreements on migration: The negotiating parties should place the rights and interests of both short-term and long-term British and European nationals residing in each other’s territory at the centre stage. In negotiating a possible treaty, both the respective EU member state (e.g. Spain) and the UK should take the pre-Brexit status quo as the departing point. The status of mobile nationals could be improved beyond that enjoyed by EU citizens pre-Brexit. For example, political rights could be extended beyond the municipal level. Certain categories of individuals (e.g. retirees, young workers) could benefit from special provisions which also depart from the pre-Brexit situation.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Brexit, Diversity, and Mobility
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

21. Shaping the Indo-Pacific? Japan and Europeanisation

Author:
Yee-Kuang Heng
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
In this Strategic Update, Professor Yee-Kuang Heng investigates European power projection and presence in the Indo-Pacific, and its converging nature with Japan’s attempt to shape the regional environment in its favour. While UK threat perceptions have converged significantly with Japan’s since former Prime Minister David Cameron’s promulgation of a “golden era” in relations with China, managing expectations of Japan’s attempt to ‘shape’ and encourage Europeanisation remains crucial. But is it fair to conclude that Japan has been successful in encouraging a stronger European presence to help it shape the Indo-Pacific order?
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Europeanization, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Japan, China, United Kingdom, Europe, and Indo-Pacific

22. UK Green Growth Index

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by the challenges of the net zero transition, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. The transition to net zero will require substantial investment and adaptation across the UK economy. This will create unique opportunities for British businesses to innovate, produce, and supply the goods and services needed to enable the transition, not only in the UK but globally. At the same time, for many parts of the economy the transition will create challenges due to the need to adapt products, processes, and skills. Our UK Green Growth Index, produced on behalf of Lloyds Banking Group, assesses the degree to which each UK nation and region may be impacted by these challenges, and how well placed they are to capitalise on green growth. Our research suggests that green growth opportunities are especially strong in Scotland, given its existing base of green economy activity and its access to a workforce with relevant skills. Similarly, Wales appears well placed to capitalise on green growth opportunities, although it may face greater disruption in the nearer term due to its reliance on high emitting industries. Northern Ireland is also relatively exposed to disruption and may need to accelerate efforts to put in place the factors needed to fully exploit green economy opportunities. Amongst English regions, the South East and South West appear to be best placed to capitalise on the green economy and are less exposed to disruption from the transition than many other parts of the UK. In contrast, Yorkshire and the Humber may face greater disruption and has further to go to develop some of the factors needed to capitalise on green growth. London is somewhat of an outlier: its status as a city-region with a service-orientated economy means it is much less exposed to the challenges than areas which rely more on industrial activity, but it also has less scope to capitalise on green economy opportunities in fields such as manufacturing and energy (although it is well positioned to develop as a centre for green finance and other professional services).
Topic:
Environment, International Trade and Finance, Economic Growth, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

23. The economic contribution of UK rail

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production (GVA) in 2019, associated with 710,000 jobs. Productivity and wage levels, both on the railways and in the rail supply sector, were above-average in every region. The UK railway sector supported £42.9 billion of economic production and was associated with 710,000 jobs and £14.1 billion in tax revenues in 2019, new research by Oxford Economics finds. The rail transport system—Network Rail and the train and metro system operators—accounted for £12.2 billion of that total Gross Value Added (GVA) measure of output. For every £1 of activity on the railway system itself, a further £2.50 of income was generated elsewhere in the UK economy, as a result of supply chain links and other knock-on effects. This extra GVA comprised £17.8 billion in the rail supply sector, £0.9 billion in on-station retail and its suppliers, and £12.0 billion across the wider consumer-facing economy due to wage-funded employee spending (the so-called ‘induced impact’). The study, commissioned by the Railway Industry Association (RIA), also finds that both productivity and wages are higher than the economy-wide average, in both the rail transport system and rail supply sector. This is true not just for the UK as a whole, but for every one of its 12 constituent regions and countries. Finally, the analysis looks at the potential impact of extra public spending on the UK rail infrastructure. Looking further into the future, if rail infrastructure spending were 50% higher than the ‘baseline’ expectation, an extra 104,000 rail supply sector jobs would be supported throughout the five-year period 2025-29. Even if these jobs simply displaced other work, the economy would still benefit, because of their high-productivity, high-wage nature. In the more immediate future, the economy will still be recovering from the Covid pandemic, and will therefore have a degree of spare capacity. This means that any extra jobs created by an uplift in rail infrastructure investment could be genuinely additional, rather than displacing other employment. And this work could support more new jobs in turn, through induced effects. Here, we find that every extra £100 million per annum of spending on rail infrastructure would support an additional 1,400 well-paid jobs in the rail supply sector, plus a further 700 jobs across the wider consumer-facing economy.
Topic:
Economics, Infrastructure, Railways, and Travel
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

24. The socio-economic impact of cultivated meat in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
A report on the potential socio-economic benefits of the cultivated meat sector in conjunction with leading UK producer Ivy Farm Technologies. The cultivated meat industry is in its infancy, both in the UK and in most countries around the world. But it clearly presents significant opportunities for entrepreneurs, investors, and other commercial partners to exploit the global potential of a move away from conventional farming towards more sustainable methods. However, the UK industry is currently not able to take advantage of the commercial opportunities while it awaits regulatory approval. This report has sought to demonstrate that there is a strong economic rationale for allowing UK firms to move from research and development into production. As the report highlights, the UK cultivated meat market has the potential to grow into an industry with a total gross value added contribution to UK GDP of over £2 billion in 2030. The detailed analysis of the value of economic activity generated, the number of highly-skilled jobs created and supported, and the taxation revenue (up to £523 million) generated shows the industry has the potential to become an important sectoral driver of growth during the next decade.
Topic:
Economics, Job Creation, Socioeconomics, and Business Management
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

25. The Economic Impact of an Online Retail Sales Tax in the UK

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of an online sales tax in the UK. On 27 July 2020, HM Treasury (HMT) announced a call for evidence around the issue of a business rates review. Contained within this document was a consideration of alternative tax bases that could raise revenue for the Exchequer to compensate for any shortfall that might be created by business rates reform. One of the options proposed was an online sales tax (OST). In this context, Amazon have commissioned Oxford Economics to produce an independent quantitative assessment of the economic implications of the introduction of such a tax in the UK. We find that that the introduction of an OST would raise around £1.6 billion in government revenue. The burden of the tax would be split between consumers, online sales platforms, and upstream businesses. Our analysis shows that a majority of the tax’s burden will most likely be borne by consumers who could lose around £1.3 billion in welfare terms. The net inefficiencies due to the OST are estimated to be around £200 million (i.e., 13% of the revenue). The government’s fiscal options will need to be assessed against a range of economic as well as procedural criteria. In our assessment of the OST against the Treasury Select Committee’s principles of taxation, we found that the OST is distortive and also could potentially restrict SMEs from competing in the retail market. Further, the disproportionate impact on households in the lowest income decile and on economically weaker regions of the UK as well as the restrictive effect on the elderly and the disabled raise questions about the fairness of the OST.
Topic:
Economics, Digital Economy, Retail, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

26. The Labour Party in Opposition and Power 1979-2019: Forward March Halted?

Author:
Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
The cycle of defeat and recovery begins in 1979 with Labour’s ejection from office following the economic and political crises of the 1970s.2 The party’s defeat was traumatic, if not unexpected. The Prime Minister, Jim Callaghan admitted: ‘There are times, perhaps once every thirty years, when there is a sea-change in politics. It then does not matter what you say or what you do. There is a shift in what the public wants and what it approves of. I suspect there is now such a sea- change and it is for Mrs. Thatcher’. The loss of office was as nothing compared with the harrowing events of the decade that followed. Labour suffered a further three consecutive defeats. In 1981, the party was almost obliterated by the breakaway Social Democratic Party (SDP), threatening to end Labour’s grip on the centre-left vote. Only the First- Past-the-Post electoral system saved Labour as the dominant force on the Left of British politics. Even so, the party remained bitterly divided. The leadership spent years embroiled in internal factional disputes, such was its determination to destroy the hard Left entryist Militant Tendency. Since the 1950s, Labour was weakened by recurrent intra-party conflict. Most notable were its divisions over Europe, fundamental ideological disagreements about the role of the state in the economy, and the primacy that should be accorded to nationalisation and public ownership in the party’s programme.
Topic:
Elections, Political Parties, Opposition, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

27. Not for patching? Public opinion and the commitment to ‘build back better’

Author:
Karl Pike, Farah Hussain, Philip Cowley, and Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
Announcing the launch of a ‘Build Back Better Council’ in January 2021, bringing together various business leaders, the Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that ‘as we recover from this crisis it won’t be enough to just go back to normal – our promise will be to build back better and level up opportunity for people and businesses across the UK’. 1 The following month, the Leader of the Opposition, Keir Starmer, said he believed ‘there’s a mood in the air which we don’t detect often in Britain. It was there in 1945, after the sacrifice of war, and it’s there again now. It’s the determination that our collective sacrifice must lead to a better future’. 2 The historian and peer – and the Mile End Institute’s patron – Lord Hennessy similarly argued recently that the Covid-19 experience ‘has sharpened our sense of the duty of care we have one for another, that a state has for all of its people, to a degree we have not felt collectively since World War Two and its aftermath’. 3 These appraisals of the impact of the crisis, and political commitments to change, are giving rise to debate. Are we to experience a moment similar to that of postwar transformation? If so, what is the prospect for the Britain that emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic to be significantly different, in policy terms, from what preceded it? The latter question in particular animates this project – Not for Patching?, of which this report marks our earliest findings, based on an opinion survey. Ipsos MORI surveyed 1,120 adults across Great Britain, posing questions across a range of policy areas. Fieldwork was carried out online from 19 March 2021 to 22 March 2021, and data weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error, but they still give us an insight into the public’s priorities. Further analysis of this data, and further surveys, will continue to add to this project. The purpose of this report is to examine the views of the British public on what rebuilding after the pandemic might mean. What we offer here are some preliminary indications of what policy areas the public want to prioritise, and how the machinery of government has managed and performed during this crisis. We are interested in both priorities and performance here, not least because we consider them linked.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Governance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

28. West African Elites’ Spending on UK Schools and Universities: A Closer Look

Author:
Matthew Page
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Political, business, and cultural elites from around the world have a strong affinity for the United Kingdom (UK) education system. Nowhere is this truer than in West Africa, where some families in Nigeria and Ghana have a long tradition of sending their children to private boarding schools and universities in the UK. These institutions are especially popular destinations for the offspring of prominent politically exposed persons (PEPs) from the region. Immigration officials, admissions staff, and UK law enforcement are not likely to scrutinize the conditions under which the children of PEPs enroll in British schools, even though the PEPs themselves may have modest legitimate earnings and opaque asset profiles that in other circumstances would raise serious financial concerns. This relative lack of review has allowed some West African PEPs to channel unexplained wealth into the UK education sector. It is not easy to estimate the overall value of this flow, yet it likely exceeds £30 million annually.1 Most of these funds emanate from Nigeria and, to a lesser extent, Ghana; compared with these two countries, only a handful of students from elsewhere in West Africa seek an education in British schools. Tackling this small but significant illicit financial flow should be a priority for UK policymakers. In doing so, they would be helping to realize the UK’s global anticorruption objectives, advance its International Education Strategy, and close a troublesome anti–money laundering (AML) loophole. Failing to do so would exacerbate existing corruption challenges both at home and abroad and increase the UK education sector’s reputational liabilities.
Topic:
Corruption, Education, Law Enforcement, Higher Education, and Elites
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Europe, and West Africa

29. COVID-19 credit support programs in Europe’s five largest economies

Author:
Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia, and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
n 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programs through a host of initiatives, including efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper presents detailed information about these national credit support programs in the largest national economies of the European Union (France, Germany, Italy, and Spain) and the United Kingdom. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analysis focuses on (1) how countries positioned themselves on the many tradeoffs that emerged in designing and implementing the programs; and (2) what explains differences in usage across countries and its leveling off everywhere in the second half of 2020.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Finance, Fiscal Policy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

30. COVID-19 credit-support programmes in Europe’s five largest economies

Author:
Julia Anderson, Francesco Papadia, and Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In 2020, European governments mitigated the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns and other pandemic-fighting programmes through a host of initiatives. These included efforts to support credit, such as guarantees for bank loans, particularly to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We present and analyse detailed information about those national credit-support programmes implemented in the context of fiscal policy, in Europe’s five largest national economies (besides Russia) in 2020: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. The information was collected through thorough examination of published material and extended exchanges with national authorities and financial sector participants. The analytical part of the paper focuses on two aspects: How countries have dealt with the many trade-offs that emerged in designing and implementing the programmes; What explains the differentiated usage of the facilities in the examined countries, as well as its levelling off in the second half of 2020. Section 1 defines and describes the programmes. Section 2 presents the trade-offs we identified in programme design and implementation. Section 3 explores the factors explaining actual usage in the five countries and over time. Section 4 concludes. Annexes provide details on the programmes for each country (Annex 5) and in summarised matrix form (Annex 4).
Topic:
Business, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Credit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

31. Good Practices in Risk Assessment for Terrorist Offenders

Author:
Sofia Koller
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
In November 2019, two people were stabbed to death and three wounded in an attack near London Bridge. One year later, four people were killed and more than 20 injured in a shooting in the historic city center of Vienna. Both attacks were carried out by terrorist offenders recently released from prison. Several other incidents in recent years also involved former terrorist convicts. This brings the issues of risk assessment and management to the fore of the debate on Islamist extremism and terrorism.
Topic:
Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Risk
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Germany, and Austria

32. Productivity and the Pandemic: ShortTerm Disruptions and Long-Term Implications

Author:
Klaas de Vries, Abdul Erumban, and Bart van Ark
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
This paper analyses quarterly estimates of productivity growth at industry level for three advanced economies, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, for 2020. We use detailed industry-level data to distinguish reallocations of working hours between industries from pure within-industry productivity gains or losses. We find that all three countries showed positive growth rates of aggregate output per hour in 2020 over 2019. However, after removing the effects from the reallocation of hours between low and high productivity industries, only the US still performed positively in terms of withinindustry productivity growth. In contrast, the two European economies showed negative within-industry productivity growth rates in 2020. While above-average digital-intensive industries outperformed belowaverage ones in both France and the UK, the US showed higher productivity growth in both groups compared to the European countries. Industries with medium-intensive levels of shares of employees working from home prior to the pandemic made larger productivity gains in 2020 than industries with the highest pre-pandemic work-from-home shares. The paper also experiments with US data on employment at county level by allocating within-industry productivity contributions for 2020 to urban, sub-urban and rural areas, showing that the contributions to within-industry productivity growth from manufacturing and other production industries in urban and sub-urban areas increased during the pandemic. Overall, after taking into account the productivity collapse in the hospitality and culture sector during 2020, productivity growth shows no clear deviation from the slowing pre-pandemic productivity trend. Future trends in productivity growth will depend on whether the favourable productivity gains (or smaller losses) in industries with above-average digital intensity will outweigh negative effects from the pandemic, in particular scarring effects on labour markets and business dynamics.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Work Culture, Pandemic, COVID-19, Productivity, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, and United States of America

33. Europe’s Missile Defence and Italy: Capabilities and Cooperation

Author:
Alessandro Marrone and Karolina Muti
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Europe’s missile defence is structurally linked to NATO deterrence and defence architecture, and it has to face both a worsened international security environment and an accelerating, worldwide technological innovation. Russia and China are heavily investing in new hypersonic systems which dramatically decrease the time needed to reach the target by flying mostly within the atmosphere. The US remains a global leader in the development and deployment of missile defence capabilities, including the Aegis systems which represent the cornerstone of NATO integrate air and missile defence covering the Old Continent. European countries are increasingly collaborating within the EU framework on the related capability development, primarily via the TWISTER project under the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PeSCo). Being exposed to missile threats from Middle East and North Africa and participating to allied nuclear sharing, Italy has a primary interest in upgrading its military capabilities through PeSCo, maintaining them fully integrated within NATO, and involving the national defence industry in cutting-edge procurement programmes.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Science and Technology, and European Union
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Turkey, France, Poland, Germany, Italy, North America, and United States of America

34. Cyber Defence in NATO Countries: Comparing Models

Author:
Alessandro Marrone and Ester Sabatino
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In 2016 NATO recognised cyber as a domain comparable to the air, land and sea ones, in consideration of the growing number of cyberattacks and of their negative impact on the cyberspace, as well as on the “real world”. Both NATO and its member states have launched initiatives to better tackle the cyber challenge both operationally and in terms of capability development. Nevertheless, among major NATO’s members a common approach to cyber defence is still missing, thus generating a division among countries that pursue a more active defence – US, UK and France – and those that prefer a more defensive approach – Germany and Spain.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, National Security, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, Germany, Spain, and United States of America

35. Factsheet: Tommy Robinson

Author:
Tommy Robinson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Tommy Robinson is a British anti-Muslim and anti-immigration activist. A co-founder of the racist English Defense League, Robinson believes Islam is a “disease” and Muslims are invading Europe. He has been connected to trans-national anti-Muslim activists and organizations, including PEGIDA. Robinson has had numerous criminal convictions and is currently serving time in jail.
Topic:
Islam, Far Right, Muslims, Tommy Robinson, and English Defense League (EDL)
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, and Europe

36. The “Indo-Pacific” Concept: Geographical Adjustments and their Implications

Author:
Wada Haruko
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The United States, Australia, Japan, India, France, the United Kingdom, Indonesia and ASEAN have adopted the term “Indo-Pacific” as a policy symbol of regional engagement. However, less attention has been given to the change in the geographical definition of the “Indo-Pacific”. This study examines how these countries have adjusted the geographical scope of “Indo-Pacific” to understand how they conceptualise the region. It finds that the inherent core area of the “Indo-Pacific” is from India to the Southeast Asian countries and the seas from the eastern Indian Ocean to the South China Sea, and that the “Indo-Pacific” has converged eastwards and diverged westwards through the geographical adjustment process. It also found that some of the geographical definitions have an additional function of conveying diplomatic messages. These findings will help us understand how the concept of “Indo- Pacific” as conceptualised by various countries develops.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and ASEAN
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Asia, France, Australia, and Indo-Pacific

37. State Violence and Public Monitoring – Britain’s use of torture in Mandatory Palestine

Author:
James Hopkins
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
In his influential work Torture and Democracy, Darius Rejali argues that when democracies use torture, they tend to resort to the use of stealthy torture techniques in order to avoid detection. Using primary archival sources, this paper examines Rejali’s hypothesis by looking at torture in the British Mandate in Palestine up to 1945. First, looking specifically at torture it will show that the case study fits the hypothesis, as torture was generally stealthy, but also systemic and at times officially sanctioned. It locates the reason for the use of torture in the failure of intelligence gathering, before examining the pressures public monitoring put on the British. The historical literature tends to emphasise the concerns British authorities had over propaganda in both the foreign and local press: however, this paper also highlights the threat of pan-Arabic and Muslim agitation across the Middle East and India. After noting that torture is merely one form of violence in the state’s repertoire, and therefore cannot be fully understood in isolation, the paper aims to put the use of torture in its wider context. In Palestine, torture took place alongside a brutal counterinsurgency campaign, in which British servicemen systemically carried out casual brutality against the local population, which, in contrast to the use of torture, was highly visible and unconcerned with public monitoring. It is argued that the reasons for this casual brutality were the poor conditions of service, the make- up of the force, and the racism endemic in it. Despite this seeming contradiction of the monitoring hypothesis, the paper concludes by arguing that the hypothesis can explain the disparity between stealthy torture and visible casual brutality. In doing so, it draws attention to the importance of perception in public monitoring as well as the shifts in the factors affecting the Mandate.
Topic:
Intelligence, Terrorism, Torture, State Violence, and Surveillance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Middle East, and Palestine

38. Framing of Online News Reporting on Terrorist Attacks in the United Kingdom (2015-2017)

Author:
Juraj Nosal
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence, St. Andrews University, Scotland
Abstract:
This paper examined framing of online news reporting on terrorist attacks in the United Kingdom. The sample consisted of the articles published on three British news websites about six major terrorist attacks that took place in Europe between 2015 and 2017. The research aimed to identify and compare dominant news frames on the websites and discuss to what degree online reporting on terrorism contributes to the promotion of terror and violence. The study employed an inductive approach based on computer-assisted qualitative content analysis, which was complemented by quantitative content analysis of the article’s main textual elements such as headlines, leads, and concluding paragraphs. The analysis identified 20 dominant news frames: seven in MailOnline, six in The Independent and seven in The Telegraph. The study concluded that framing of news reporting on terrorist attacks does not significantly differ among the websites. Most frames contain similar framing packages and lexical choices, and can be grouped into broader sets that appear across the websites. Quantitative content analysis of the articles’ textual elements also showed very similar trends. Furthermore, the study found that online reporting on terrorist attacks significantly contributes to the promotion of terror and violence. This was clearly manifested in at least five identified news frames as well as by the results of quantitative content analysis.
Topic:
Terrorism, Media, Internet, and News Analysis
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

39. Britain's No-Deal Debacle? The Costs at Home and Likely Setbacks Abroad

Author:
John Ryan
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
For much of the past four years, and increasingly in the past few months, the United Kingdom has drifted in the direction of a No-Deal Brexit. In this Strategic Update, John Ryan explores the economic and political consequences for the United Kingdom of such a situation, as well as the domestic factors in Ireland and the United States that may provide unanticipated problems for the Johnson government.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Politics, Brexit, and Trade
Political Geography:
Britain, United Kingdom, Europe, Ireland, and United States of America

40. The Economics and Politics of Social Democracy: A Reconsideration

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Questions about the decline of Social democracy continue to excite wide interest, even in the era of Covid-19. This paper takes a fresh look at topic. It argues that social democratic politics faces a fundamental dilemma: short-term practical relevance requires it to accept, at least partly, the very socio-economic conditions which it purports to change in the longer run. Bhaduri’s (1993) essay which analyzes social democracy’s attempts to navigate this dilemma by means of ‘a nationalization of consumption’ and Keynesian demand management, was written before the rise of New (‘Third Way’) Labor and before the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-8. This paper provides an update, arguing that New Labor’s attempt to rescue ‘welfare capitalism’ entailed a new solution to the dilemma facing social democracy based on an expansion of employment, i.e. an all-out emphasis on “jobs, jobs, jobs”. The flip-side (or social cost) of the emphasis on job growth has been a stagnation of productivity growth—which, in turn, has put the ‘welfare state’ under increasing pressure of fiscal austerity. The popular discontent and rise of ‘populist’ political parties is closely related to the failure of New Labor to navigate social democracy’s dilemma.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Democracy, Capitalism, Economic Growth, Welfare, Productivity, and Social Democracy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

41. The Privatization and Financialisation of Social Care in the UK

Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Even before the arrival of COVID-19, the care sector was already in long-term crisis, in large part due to insufficient funding, but the sector has also been under pressure from structural changes resulting from privatisation and financialisation.3 Social care is one of many elements of everyday life which, over the past few decades, have been repackaged to suit the needs of global capital. The process has transformed a social need into a financial issue which in turn translates into new social relations where narratives are constructed in terms of markets and efficiency. Care sector workers are treated as a financial overhead rather than integral to the quality of care provided. The financialisation of social care is an ongoing systemic process, which is accentuated in the increasingly challenging current global investment climate as investors seek alternatives to the low returns from traditional secure investments such as government bonds. This paper is concerned with the tensions resulting in the private provision of social care services. Some of the larger care providers are owned by financial investors that have earned substantial profits via opaque corporate practices. Discussion in the paper shows that while social care offers relatively low risk and high return investment opportunities, structuring care services as a private sector endeavour risks major adverse social outcomes, potentially resulting in: Extensive transfers to the world’s richest via the servicing of basic needs for some of society’s most vulnerable people, financed by taxes and lifetimes’ savings A two tier system of residential care where private providers seek to serve only self-funders Increasing strain on a largely female and minority ethnic un-unionised work force Increasing pressures on (largely female) informal carers that pick up the pieces of the failings in the care system In the inequitable practices of social care providers. However, the paper demonstrates that in the long term, tweaking the margins of regulation will not be sufficient to address the fundamental structural flaws underlying our current care system. Social care services are not competitive and the sector does not work as a conventional market. The analysis acknowledges the complexities of restructuring the care system and therefore offers both short and long term policy suggestions: • Conditions for financial support to the sector in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic should be imposed to curtail the current extractive practices of some care providers. Tighter regulation should promote socially responsible care provision, backed up with additional financial resources and long-term political commitment. • Additional financial support is needed for local authorities to enable them to provide social care and reduce their reliance on private companies. • Consideration should be given to innovative alternative provider models that draw on international examples of good practice. The current structure of social care provision inevitably promotes inequality, while transparency and accountability are lacking. Moreover, the care system is increasingly moulded to suit the priorities of investors rather than social care needs. In the wake of the pandemic, more resources are urgently needed for social care but this is an opportunity for a radical rethink of the ways in which we support the most vulnerable in our society.
Topic:
Privatization, Governance, Finance, Welfare, and Social Services
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

42. Power down to level up: resilient place-shaping for a post-Covid age

Author:
Andrew Walker and Patrick Diamond
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:
It has become commonplace in 2020 to say that the Covid-19 pandemic has shone a light on severe problems and iniquities in the delivery of local services. But it is true. It is also true returning to pre-Covid “normality” is not an option, nor is it really desirable. Crisis issues in council finances, social care, children’s services, housing, homelessness, high streets and local growth, did not spring up overnight. LGIU and others have been shouting about these things for years and trying to get decision makers to pay proper attention. We understand that this is challenging. There are no easy solutions. Tackling the problems will involve choices and trade-offs. But that is politics. If we don’t take this opportunity to empower communities, so that they can flourish in the future, then when will we? At present, central government is concerned with issues of council structure and is pursuing a strategy of reorganisation that will reflect central government priorities, not those of local communities. This is a distraction from the important, longstanding problems that the government has so far refused to engage with: a finance settlement for local government; the crisis in adult social care and children’s services; and the unanswered problems of English devolution. At its root, this is a longstanding crisis of governance. The UK, remarkably centralised in comparison with similar economies around the world, has a moribund system of governance. Its outdated and inadequate constitutional framework, which wouldn’t be (and isn’t) looked upon as a model worth following elsewhere, is supported by a set of assumptions, ideas and beliefs that dominate in national political discourse. These hold that Whitehall knows best. Ministers hand down decisions that must be delivered across a varied and diverse geography by local authorities, regardless of local circumstances, assets, or democratic support. This is blind to the importance of place and it should be reversed. In this paper we show how local councils have already demonstrated their capacity for effective place-based It has become commonplace in 2020 to say that the Covid-19 pandemic has shone a light on severe problems and iniquities in the delivery of local services. But it is true. It is also true returning to pre-Covid “normality” is not an option, nor is it really desirable. Crisis issues in council finances, social care, children’s services, housing, homelessness, high streets and local growth, did not spring up overnight. LGIU and others have been shouting about these things for years and trying to get decision makers to pay proper attention. We understand that this is challenging. There are no easy solutions. Tackling the problems will involve choices and trade-offs. But that is politics. If we don’t take this opportunity to empower communities, so that they can flourish in the future, then when will we? At present, central government is concerned with issues of council structure and is pursuing a strategy of reorganisation that will reflect central government priorities, not those of local communities. This is a distraction from the important, longstanding problems that the government has so far refused to engage with: a finance settlement for local government; the crisis in adult social care and children’s services; and the unanswered problems of English devolution. At its root, this is a longstanding crisis of governance. The UK, remarkably centralised in comparison with similar economies around the world, has a moribund system of governance. Its outdated and inadequate constitutional framework, which wouldn’t be (and isn’t) looked upon as a model worth following elsewhere, is supported by a set of assumptions, ideas and beliefs that dominate in national political discourse. These hold that Whitehall knows best. Ministers hand down decisions that must be delivered across a varied and diverse geography by local authorities, regardless of local circumstances, assets, or democratic support. This is blind to the importance of place and it should be reversed. In this paper we show how local councils have already demonstrated their capacity for effective place-based leadership, without input from Westminster. This is despite decades of chipping away at their power and institutional resilience by central government., without input from Westminster. This is despite decades of chipping away at their power and institutional resilience by central government.
Topic:
Governance, Local, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

43. PROPERTY AND SOVEREIGNTY: Creating, Destroying, and Resurrecting Property Rights in British India (1600-1800)

Author:
Namita Wahi
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This paper, the first in a series of three papers, constitutes the first systematic legal attempt since the late nineteenth century to describe the changing configuration of property rights of zamindars (landlords) and ryots or raiyats (peasants) relative to the English East India Company in colonial India over a period of two hundred years from 1600 to 1800. This period begins with the Company’s first arrival in India to the court of the Mughal Emperor Jehangir in 1600 as merely a trading company. It ends with the introduction of the Permanent Settlement in Bengal by Lord Cornwallis, the Governor General of Bengal in 1793, pursuant to the Company’s exercise of sovereign authority over the provinces of Bengal, Bihar, and Orissa. As described in the paper, during this period of great political upheaval, scandal, and intrigue, as the East India Company gradually transitioned from a monopoly trading company to a conquering and then an administering power, Company officials, including the Governor General, and later the Supreme Council of Bengal, created, destroyed, and resurrected property rights of landlords and tenant cultivators. Following a series of experiments with land revenue administration and the lives of zamindars and raiyats, with the sole objective of maximising revenue for the East India Company, Lord Cornwallis introduced the Permanent Settlement of Land Revenue in 1793, which completely destroyed the rights of peasant cultivators in favour of zamindars, and wreaked great injustice and misery upon the people of Bengal. It would take nearly seventy years for British government to begin to reverse this injustice through tenancy protection legislation enacted in 1859, and this reversal in law would only be completed following land reforms introduced by provincial governments post India’s independence in 1947. These later developments will be the subject of the next two papers in this series.
Topic:
Sovereignty, History, Governance, and Property
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, South Asia, and India

44. The Brexit referendum and the rise in hate crime; conforming to the new norm

Author:
Facundo Albornoz, Jake Bradley, and Silvia Sonderegger
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
We show that the sharp increase in hate crime following the Brexit referendum was more pronounced in more pro-remain areas. This is consistent with a model where behavior is dictated by the desire to conform to imperfectly observed social norms in addition to following individual preferences, and where the referendum revealed that society’s real preferences over immigration were less positive than previously thought. For identification, we exploit the feature that the referendum revealed new information overnight in a context where other determinants of attitudes remained constant. The data can be replicated with a sensible parameterization of the model.
Topic:
Immigration, Public Opinion, Brexit, and Discrimination
Political Geography:
Britain and United Kingdom

45. Not All Firms Are Created Equal SMEs and Vocational Training in the UK, Italy, and Germany

Author:
Chiara Benassi, Niccolò Durazzi, and Johann Fortwengel
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
Why do skill formation systems put SMEs at greater disadvantage in some countries than others vis-à-vis large employers? By comparing vocational education and training (VET) institutions and their differential effect on firms of different sizes across three countries (UK, Italy, and Germany), we show that the design of VET has profound implications for shap- ing the ability of SMEs to use institutions as resources. In particular, quasi-market institu- tions in the UK amplify SMEs’ disadvantage, while non-market coordinating institutions in Italy and Germany narrow the gap between SMEs and large employers. By unpacking the comparative disadvantage of SMEs, we offer important nuances to the argument that institutions help firms coordinate their business activities in different varieties of capitalism.
Topic:
Political Economy, Capitalism, and Vocational Training
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, and Italy

46. Global giants and local stars: How changes in brand ownership affect competition

Author:
Vanessa Alviarez, Keith Head, and Thierry Mayer
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
We assess the consequences for consumers in 76 countries of multinational acquisitions in beer and spirits. Outcomes depend on how changes in ownership affect markups versus efficiency. We find that owner fixed effects contribute very little to the performance of brands. On average, foreign ownership tends to raise costs and lower appeal. Using the estimated model, we simulate the consequences of counterfactual national merger regulation. The US beer price index would have been 4-7% higher without divestitures. Up to 30% savings could have been obtained in Latin America by emulating the pro-competition policies of the US and EU.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Latin America, and Global Focus

47. The Projected Economic Impact of COVID-19 on the U.K. Creative Industries

Author:
Alice Gambarin and Osman Ismail
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
This report explores the short-term effects of Covid-19 on the financial sustainability of the creative industries in the UK. Along with the tourism sector, Creative Industries (CIs) are among the most affected by the current Covid-19 crisis. Creative workers, one of the more vulnerable sectors of the workforce, are already seeing devastating impacts on their income, not only in turnover terms, but also in their charitable contributions and sponsorship. Leaving behind the more fragile part of the sector could cause irreparable socio-economic damage. We find that the Creative Industries are projecting a combined £77bn turnover loss over the course of 2020 compared to 2019 (-31%). This is expected to translate into a GVA shortfall of £29bn in 2020 compared to 2019 (-26%), over half of which is in London. In 2020, CIs are projecting a 122,000 drop in employment among employees (despite the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme - JRS) and a further 287,000 job losses among self employed workers, compared to 2019 levels. In total, 409,000 CIs jobs are considered at risk, 27% of which are in London and 20% are in the South East.
Topic:
Economics, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

48. Resilience or Relocation? Expectations and Reality in the City of London since the Brexit Referendum.

Author:
Manolis Kalaitzake
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The fate of British finance following the Brexit referendum revolves around the “resilience or relocation” debate: will the City of London continue to thrive as the world’s leading financial centre or will the bulk of its activity move to rival hubs after departure from EU trading arrangements? Despite extensive commentary, there remains no systematic analysis of this question since the Leave vote. This paper addresses that lacuna by evaluating the empirical evidence concerning jobs, investments, and share of key trading markets (between June 2016 and May 2020). Contrary to widely held expectations, the evidence suggests that the City has been remarkably resilient. Brexit has had no significant impact on jobs and London has consolidated its position as the chief location for financial FDI, FinTech funding, and attracting new firms. Most unexpectedly, the City has increased its dominance in major infrastructure markets such as (euro-denominated) clearing, derivatives, and foreign exchange – although it has lost out in the handling of European repurchase agreements. Based upon this evidence, the paper argues that the UK’s negotiating position is stronger than typically recognised, and outlines the competitive ramifications for both the UK and EU financial sector.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, Urban, and Local
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

49. EU sanctions and Brexit: Losing the hard edge of European foreign policy?

Author:
Juha Jokela and Ilari Aula
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU needs to assume more responsibility in defending its interests and security. Brexit will constitute an additional challenge for the EU in this respect, and has led to calls to strengthen the efficiency of the the Common Foreign and Security Policy, including EU sanctions, which currently form one of the toughest and most increasingly used tools in the EU’s foreign policy toolbox. The UK has been the most active and influential member state in formulating the EU’s sanctions policy. The EU could largely replace the technical expertise provided by the UK, yet the level of ambition of the EU’s sanctions policy is likely to decrease. Even though the UK has taken measures to maintain the sanctions regimes it agreed to as an EU member state, an independent UK sanctions policy could result in divergence. The envisaged coordination mechanisms between EU and UK sanctions policies can mitigate some of the negative implications of Brexit, but they cannot replace the UK’s EU membership.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Sanctions, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

50. The dynamic impact of FX interventions on financial markets

Author:
Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth, and Tobias Stöhr
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions in the prevailing higher frequency approaches leaves a gap at horizons going beyond a few days. This is addressed by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Using Japanese data, we find that FX interventions significantly affect exchange rates, although the effect is smaller than in emerging markets, and this impact persists for up to a year. There is no major effect on interest rates, but stock prices increase in line with currency devaluation, in particular those of large (exporting) firms. The results qualitatively hold for US and UK interventions.
Topic:
International Political Economy, Exports, Data, and Models
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and United Kingdom

51. Resilience or Relocation? Expectations and Reality in the City of London since the Brexit Referendum

Author:
Manolis Kalaitzake
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Sciences Po Center on Coping with Instability in Market Societies (MaxPo)
Abstract:
The fate of British finance following the Brexit referendum revolves around the “resilience or relocation” debate: will the City of London continue to thrive as the world’s leading financial centre, or will the bulk of its activity move to rival hubs after departure from EU trading arrangements? Despite extensive commentary, there remains no systematic analysis of this question since the Leave vote. This paper addresses that lacuna by evaluating the empirical evidence concerning jobs, investments, and share of key trading markets (between June 2016 and May 2020). Contrary to widely held expectations, the evidence suggests that the City has been remarkably resilient. Brexit has had no significant impact on jobs and London has consolidated its position as the chief location for financial FDI, FinTech funding, and attracting new firms. Most unexpectedly, the City has increased its dominance in major infrastructure markets such as (euro-denominated) clearing, derivatives, and foreign exchange – although it has lost out in the handling of European repurchase agreements. Based upon this evidence, the paper argues that the UK’s negotiating position is stronger than typically recognised, and outlines the competitive ramifications for both the UK and EU financial sector.
Topic:
European Union, Brexit, Resilience, Financial Services, and Relocation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London

52. Great Britain and the European Union Beyond Brexit

Author:
Ana Muhar Blanquart
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
Brexit is a term coined of the words “British exit”, referring to the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. First used in 2012 by the founder of the British Influence think-tank Peter Wilding, it became the most frequently used political term in 2016, the year when the British electorate chose to leave the European Union and thus change the political landscape of the United Kingdom and the European Union.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, England, North Ireland, Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

53. Britain's Uncertain Brexit March

Author:
Marko Attila Hoare
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The popular vote of the UK on 23 June 2016 to leave the EU has been politically an earthquake for the first and a shock to the second. Retrospectively, the outcome was likely, given the structural factors both within Britain and between Britain and the EU. Yet these same factors have obstructed a clear British post- referendum strategy for secession: Britain Britain’s relationship to Europe is traditionally ambiguous. Britain’s identity - of a Protestant island-state formed in 1707 from the Anglo- Scottish union - was cemented during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in wars against the Catholic powers of continental Europe. It was successively reinforced by Napoleon’s anti-British Continental System; does not know what kind of Brexit it wants, or whether it wants one at all. This briefing will examine the causes of the Brexit revolution and the reasons for its uncertain execution, before considering the likely outcome.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Geopolitics, Europe Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, England, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales

54. The Contents of Power: Narrative and Soft Power in the Olympic Games Opening Ceremonies

Author:
David Leheny
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
This paper examines debates about soft power and popular culture, with particular attention to the framing and reception of the opening ceremonies at the Olympics. It examines how national narratives, particularly in the oft-noted Beijing 2008 Games and the London 2012 Games, have been analysed, turning then to a discussion of clues regarding the likely framing of the 2020 opening ceremony in Tokyo.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Sports, Olympics, and popular culture
Political Geography:
Japan, China, United Kingdom, Europe, and Asia

55. International Development Cooperation After Brexit

Author:
Mikaela Gavas
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Mikaela Gavas submitted written evidence to the United Kingdom's House of Lords EU External Affairs Sub-Committee on January 31, 2019. In her evidence Gavas answered questions about the future of UK-EU development cooperation after Brexit.
Topic:
Development, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

56. L’ambivalence de la politique d’armement britannique vis-à-vis de l’Europe (The Ambivalence of British Arms Policy Towards Europe)

Author:
Samuel B. H. Faure
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Published in the context of Brexit, this research paper analyses the ‘double relationship’ between Britain and Europe: being ‘in’ by taking part in co-operation with other European states, and at the same time being ‘out’ by staying away from or even leaving multilateral programmes in Europe. This dilemma is worked on from the case of defence procurement policy. How does the British government decide to be both ‘in’ and ‘out’ of Europe by participating in the A400M military transport aircraft programme and withdrawing from the EuroMale UAV programme? Based on exclusive data, the decision in favour of the A400M (‘in’) is explained by the action of political, administrative and industrial actors who perceive the A400M as a ‘truck’ rather than a ‘race car’. As for the British State’s decision not to participate in the EuroMale programme (‘out’), it is conditioned by a weakening of the political will of political actors, and at the same time by a strengthening of conflicting relations between French and British administrations and industries. In doing so, this research contributes to the literature on the acquisition of armaments in strategic studies, and to the literature on differentiated integration in European studies.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Political Economy, European Union, Brexit, Conflict, and Europeanization
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, France, Western Europe, and European Union

57. Norms, Enforcement, and Tax Evasion

Author:
Timothy Besley, Anders Jensen, and Torsten Persson
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper studies individual and social motives in tax evasion. We build a simple dynamic model that incorporates these motives and their interaction. The social motives underpin the role of norms and is the source of the dynamics that we study. Our empirical analysis exploits the adoption in 1990 of a poll tax to fund local government in the UK, which led to widespread evasion. The evidence is consistent with the model’s main predictions on the dynamics of evasion.
Topic:
Political Economy, Economy, Financial Crimes, and Tax Systems
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Global Focus

58. The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty

Author:
Tarek A. Hassan, Laurence van Lent, Stephan Hollander, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world: the share of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK’s intention to leave the EU. Using this approach, we identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate the effects of these different kinds of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that concerns about Brexit-related uncertainty extend far beyond British or even European firms. US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty have lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects of Brexit (the first moment), should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties resulting from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, trade access, and the costs of adjusting their operations post-Brexit. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet had significant effects on firm actions.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Regional Cooperation, Brexit, Global Political Economy, and Economic Policy
Political Geography:
Britain, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and European Union

59. Advancing UK maritime aviation in the Queen Elizabeth-class era

Author:
Nick Childs
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The United Kingdom is on the cusp of regenerating what is a transformational capability. The first of the UK’s new-generation aircraft carriers, HMS Queen Elizabeth, has been at sea on trials for two years, and is working up towards its first operational deployment in 2021. The second ship, HMS Prince of Wales, is scheduled to be accepted into service before the end of the year. The F-35B Lightning II has achieved initial land-based operating capability and the Lightning Force has carried out its first overseas deployment, Lightning Dawn. Maritime aviation in the round has undergone a significant transformation, and there has been a substantial increased focus on collaboration and partnering with industry as well as developing stronger links with critical allies. To underscore the significance of the undertaking, then secretary of state for defence Penny Mordaunt announced on 15 May 2019 that the UK planned to produce a National Aircraft Carrier Policy to lay down a blueprint for how the new carrier era would help deliver the UK’s global objectives. In addition, on 4 June, then prime minister Theresa May announced that the UK would earmark the Queen Elizabeth-class carriers to form part of NATO’s significant new Readiness Initiative. These developments have prompted thought and discussion on the extent to which the carrier programme will enable and actually drive the transformation of UK joint-force capabilities, and are posing questions about the demands such a programme will place on UK defence and industry. This paper considers both the opportunities and challenges that the carrier era presents in a number of key areas
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, Military Strategy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and London

60. The economic impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit proposals

Author:
Anand Menon
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
The Prime Minister has set out a means of escaping the Brexit stalemate, but his new Brexit proposals have, as yet, not managed to overcome the impasse. What, though, would the plan mean for the UK economy? That is the question we seek to answer in what follows. As ever, we have been lucky enough to be able to draw on the skills and expertise of some of the leading experts in the field. The bulk of the work was done by Hanwei Huang, Jonathan Portes and Thomas Sampson, with contributions from Matt Bevington and Jill Rutter. Hanwei and Thomas used the LSE’s Centre for Economic Performance trade model to carry out the modelling. We hope you find the report interesting and informative. Brexit is clearly about more than economics, but the economic impact of leaving the EU nevertheless merits careful scrutiny.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, European Union, Brexit, and Boris Johnson
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

61. Brexit and Renewables in Scotland

Author:
Nicola McEwen, Aileen McHarg, Fiona Munro, Paul Cairney, Karen Turner, and Antonios Katris
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
UK in a Changing Europe, King's College London
Abstract:
This briefing paper considers the extent to which renewables in Scotland are shaped by the policy responsibilities and decisions of multiple governments: the Scottish government, the UK government and the EU. The paper explores the significance of EU membership in shaping Scottish renewables and considers the likely effects of the UK’s exit from the EU. Despite limited constitutional power, promoting renewables has been a key priority for successive Scottish governments, central to both its environmental and economic policies. While the main policy drivers rest with the UK government, stakeholders in Scotland place importance on the EU regulatory framework, EU funding and finance, multinational cooperation and long-term strategic thinking in supporting the development of renewables in Scotland. The briefing identifies varying levels of concern among key stakeholders with regard to the impact that Brexit may have on renewables in Scotland. Many expect policy continuity, irrespective of the UK-EU relationship. Others are fearful of the uncertainty surrounding access to the EU internal market, access to project funding, access to labour and expertise, and added costs and delays in supply chains in an industry heavily reliant on kit from the EU. The biggest impact of Brexit to date has been the dominance of the issue on the political agenda, leaving little space for policy development in other areas, including energy. In addition to the regulatory, financial and trade challenges it may generate, Brexit has also reignited the debate on Scotland’s constitutional future, creating further uncertainties for the future of renewables.
Topic:
Government, European Union, Constitution, Brexit, and Renewable Energy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

62. Involuntary migration, inequality, and integration: National and subnational influences

Author:
Rachel M. Gisselquist
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Across the world, we observe different experiences in terms of inequality between migrant and ‘host-country’ populations. What factors contribute to such variation? What policies and programmes facilitate ‘better’ economic integration? This paper, and the broader collection of studies that it frames, speaks to these questions through focused comparative consideration of two migrant populations (Vietnamese and Afghan) in four Western countries (Canada, Germany, the UK, and the US). It pays particular attention to involuntary migrants who fled conflict in their home regions beginning in the 1970s. The paper builds in particular on the literature on segmented assimilation theory, exploring new linkages with work on horizontal inequality, to highlight the role of five key sets of factors in such variation: governmental policies and institutions; labour market reception; existing co-ethnic communities; human capital and socioeconomic characteristics; and social cohesion or ‘groupness’.
Topic:
Migration, Inequality, Displacement, and Economic Integration
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United Kingdom, Europe, South Asia, Canada, Vietnam, Germany, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

63. Challenges to Metropolitan Security. Terrorism in Brussels, Manchester and Nice / Retos a la seguridad metropolitana. El terrorismo en Bruselas, Manchester y Niza

Author:
Fernando Jiménez Sánchez
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
This article seeks to identify the challenges that metropolis faces in the security field based on the analysis of three attacks of the "new" terrorism carried out in the European Union in 2016 and 2017. In order to contribute to the analysis of the challenges faced by the security agencies of the States in order to accomplish with their role in areas undergoing expansion and of growing importance.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, European Union, and Cities
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, and Belgium

64. The 2019 European elections: New political constellations

Author:
Tuomas Iso-Markku and Marco Siddi
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Three main factors will determine the shape of the next European Parliament (EP): the outcome of the elections, the organisation of national parties into supranational political groups, and developments in the Brexit process. Everything points towards some significant changes – and a considerable degree of uncertainty – in the new EP. The EP’s centre-right and centre-left groups are expected to lose their combined majority for the first time since 1979, whereas far-right parties and liberal democrats will likely increase their representation. The EP’s mainstream groups will therefore need new allies to achieve majorities, which could boost the influence of the smaller groups. The choice of the next Commission President will be the first major test for the new EP. While most political groups have designated candidates, it is unclear whether the Spitzenkandidaten system will be followed. If and when it takes place, Brexit will have an impact on the size of the EP, reducing it from 751 to 705 seats, as well as on the composition of the political groups that include British parliamentarians.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

65. Global Britain's Arctic security policy: Going forward while looking back

Author:
Agne Cepinsktye
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Britain’s Arctic security policy has been shifting from abandoning the region after the Cold War to developing a non-military security approach, to reintroducing the military defence dimension, most notably by the announcement of the UK Defence Arctic Strategy (DAS). These changes are both reactive to regional factors, namely the increasing geostrategic importance of the Arctic and Russia’s military expansion in the North, and reflective of the UK’s redefined post-Brexit identity as Global Britain. The focus on expanding the naval presence in the Arctic is consistent with the Global Britain vision, which underlies the UK’s broader foreign and security policy direction and emphasises the reassertion of naval strength and global maritime influence. While Britain’s ambition to restore the naval power in the Arctic and the North Atlantic is currently constrained by a lack of resources in the defence budget, it indicates an aspiration to strengthen historically rooted naval defence relations with the Arctic states.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:
Russia, United Kingdom, Europe, and Arctic

66. The disarmament laboratory: Substance and performance in UK nuclear disarmament verification research

Author:
Tom Plant
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Over the last twenty years, the UK has researched nuclear arms control and disarmament verification in increasing breadth and depth. Although this principally technical activity has not yet been directly linked to any of the UK’s nuclear weapons stockpile reductions or postural changes, it does form much of the UK’s recent disarmament diplomacy. This is because more effective techniques for verification of nuclear arms control and disarmament are widely regarded as essential for the multilateral regimes that might be necessary if global nuclear stockpiles are to reduce. Thus, the UK balances its retention of nuclear weapons with plans – or at least the appearance of plans – for future disarmament. This balance stems in part from the degree of internal conflict in the UK about its nuclear weapon status, and the perceived need to take the lead in nuclear disarmament matters, set against decreasing room for manoeuvre in terms of substantive reductions to its declared nuclear arsenal; in the future it is likely to be increasingly central to the UK’s disarmament diplomacy. The degree to which UK verification research is genuinely intended to make a tangible disarmament contribution therefore merits scrutiny. This is particularly true for those states that are also working in the field or are interested in doing so. This paper lays out how Finland and other Nordic states could contribute by encouraging the UK to take more meaningful action, inter alia by linking UK verification research and its modernisation programme to potential arms control futures.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

67. Europe in 2019: A Critical and Transitional Year

Author:
Rachel Lutz Ellehuus, Ricklef Beutin, and Quentin Lopinot
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
For European countries and institutions as well as for transatlantic relations, 2019 will be a pivotal year. With several important leadership, policy, and structural transitions taking place in capitals and Brussels, there will be instability and uncertainty but from this could stem more positive dynamics. While the twists and turns of events remain unpredictable, what follows is a quick take on some of the most significant events on the European and transatlantic security and defense calendar for 2019 and the important stakes that are at play.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, Brexit, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

68. CSIS European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues

Author:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The European Trilateral Track 2 Nuclear Dialogues, organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and the Fondation pourla Recherche Stratégique (FRS), has convened senior nuclear policy experts from the United Kingdom, France, and the United States (P3) for the past ten years to discuss nuclear deterrence, arms control, and nonproliferation policy issues and to identify areas of consensus among the three countries. The majority of the experts are former U.S., UK, and French senior officials; the others are well-known academics in the field. Since the Dialogues’ inception, high-level officials from all three governments have also routinely joined the forum and participated in the discussions. The Dialogues have been unique in bringing U.S., UK, and French representatives into a trilateral forum for discussing nuclear policy. The United States, United Kingdom, and France hold common values and principles directed toward a shared purpose of global peace and security, as well as an understanding of their respective roles as responsible stewards of the nuclear order. Their sustained engagement will thus, irrespective of political shifts in any of the three countries, remain unique in the context of international alliances and partnerships and essential into the foreseeable future. In 2018, the group’s discussion addressed a range of issues in the Euro-Atlantic security environment and beyond, prompting agreement among the group’s nongovernmental participants to issue the following statement reflecting the consensus views of the undersigned. All signatories agree to this statement in their personal capacity, which may not represent the views of their respective organizations.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, North America, and United States of America

69. Consensus for Action: Towards a More Effective EU Sanctions Policy

Author:
Tom Keatinge and Emil Dall
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
Sanctions are a key tool of foreign policy but have taken on greater salience over the last 20 years as governments have reached for leverage in negotiations but foregone the use of force. During this period, the alignment of the design and implementation of sanctions by the European Union and the United States has, on the whole, been an article of faith as the transatlantic allies have pursued mutual foreign policy objectives. Yet despite the consistency of objectives, the bureaucratic structures, technical mechanisms, and processes by which the European Union and the United States design and implement sanctions differ significantly. These differences—always present—have been amplified by the current stresses in transatlantic relations and may be further exacerbated when the United Kingdom leaves the European Union in March 2019. The reasons behind these differences are myriad and touch upon both structural matters (such as the construction of the European Union and the manner in which its member states can enact policy) and more philosophical matters, as the focus on due process and human rights in EU sanctions policy demonstrates. But given the importance of transatlantic ties and cooperation in managing the sorts of problems that sanctions are usually developed to address, it is important for both the United States and the European Union to work through these differences. Toward that goal, this paper provides a European perspective on US sanctions activity, where there are differences in approach, in particular EU attitudes toward secondary sanctions put in place by the United States, and it explains the complications that may result from the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. The paper concludes with recommendations for how the European Union can address the challenges it faces in achieving an effective sanctions policy. In short, it recommends the following: The European Union should work through its structural issues to create a more decisive and effective EU sanctions policy. The implementation and enforcement of sanctions at the member state level must be improved, and a formal EU-level sanctions body is needed to independently monitor compliance with sanctions across the European Union. A clear mechanism for ensuring the coordination and effectiveness of EU-UK post-Brexit sanctions policy must be established. The global centrality of both the European Union’s economy and the United Kingdom’s financial sector combine to present a powerful sanctions force and must thus be closely coordinated to ensure maximum effectiveness. The European Union should directly address the matter of human rights exemptions by incorporating it as a key consideration of the EU-level sanctions body identified in the first recommendation. The European Union should establish a clear channel for human rights exemptions throughout the lifetime of sanctions regimes. The European Union should consider its options to address the ability of non-EU actors to abuse EU-originating supply chains and financial services, which represents a considerable sanctions implementation vulnerability. Finally, though US-EU misalignment on sanctions is growing, policy makers must stay seized of the necessity to maintain and improve communications and coordination to prevent current schisms from having serious long-term effects on international security.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Sanctions, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

70. National Technology and Industrial Base Integration How to Overcome Barriers and Capitalize on Cooperation

Author:
Rhys McCormick, Andrew Philip Hunter, and Gregory Sanders
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
In light of Section 881 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017, which expanded the legal definition of the National Technology and Industrial Base (NTIB) to include the United Kingdom and Australia, this report informs NTIB partners on barriers and opportunities for effective integration. The expansion of the NTIB is based on the principle that defense trade between the United States and its closest allies enables a host of benefits, including increased access to innovation, economies of scale, and interoperability. In order to reap the greatest benefits of a new era of NTIB, this report uses the lessons learned from study of the present state of integration to identify areas of opportunity for policy reforms and greater cooperation.
Topic:
Defense Policy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, and Reform
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia

71. Keep Calm and Carry On: The Terrorist Threat in the United Kingdom

Author:
Seth G. Jones
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The August 14 attack in London is the latest reminder that terrorism persists in the West more than a decade and a half after September 11, 2001. The United States continues to face a threat from right-wing, left-wing, and Islamic extremists, despite comments from some U.S. policymakers that terrorist groups have been defeated. Perhaps the most significant lesson from the London attack, however, is the resilience of the British public. They kept calm and carried on. The attacker was Salih Khater, a UK citizen from Birmingham who was in his late twenties. He drove a silver Ford Fiesta into a crowd of pedestrians and cyclists in London and then crashed it into a security barrier outside the Houses of Parliament. Eyewitness accounts were chilling. “I heard lots of screams and turned round,” remarked Barry Williams. “The car went on to the wrong side of the road to where cyclists were waiting at lights and ploughed into them.”1 The tactic—a vehicle used as a weapon—is all too familiar. Terrorists in the West have increasingly resorted to simple tactics, such as vehicles and knives, to kill civilians. Compared to previous incidents in the United Kingdom, Salih Khater’s August 14 attack was second-rate. He had been meandering around London for several hours, which suggests that the incident was not carefully planned. His tiny Ford Fiesta was no match for the barriers around the Houses of Parliament that are designed to stop attacks from 18-wheelers. And Khater failed to kill anyone, though he did injure several people. UK security agencies have conditioned their public to be prepared for plots and attacks. The United Kingdom’s recently-published counterterrorism strategy, CONTEST, argues that the country faces a significant, multidimensional threat from terrorists. According to data from the European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation, there were more failed, foiled, and completed attacks in the United Kingdom than anywhere else in the European Union in 2017.2 There were also more terrorist-related arrests in the UK in 2017 than in any previous year since 2001.3 Between December 2013 and May 2018, British intelligence and law enforcement agencies thwarted 25 plots from extreme Islamic groups.4 Most of these plots were inspired by the Islamic State and its ideology, rather than directed by Islamic State operatives.5 On March 22, 2017, for example, British-born Khalid Masood drove a sports utility vehicle into pedestrians crossing Westminster Bridge in London, killing three people. Masood then took two carving knives out of his vehicle and stabbed police officer Keith Palmer, killing him outside of Parliament. On May 22, 2017, Salman Abedi detonated an improvised explosive device in the foyer of Manchester Arena, killing 22 people; 10 of them were under 20 years old. On June 3, 2017, three men—Khuram Butt, Rachid Redouane, and Youssef Zaghba—drove a van into London Bridge, killing two people. They then jumped out of the van and killed six more people using large knives. On September 15, 2017, an 18-year old Iraqi asylum seeker named Ahmed Hassan detonated a bomb using triacetone triperoxide (TATP) on a District line train at Parsons Green Underground station in London. Thirty people were treated for burn and other injuries.6 Right-wing terrorism has also been on the rise in the United Kingdom. On June 19, 2017, Darren Osborne, a 47-year old British man, drove a van into Muslim worshippers near Finsbury Park Mosque, London, killing one person.7 On June 23, 2017, Marek Zakrocki, a known supporter of the far-right party Britain First, drove a vehicle into an Indian restaurant in London, injuring several people. He was armed with a kitchen knife and a baton-torch, and he told police: “I’m going to kill a Muslim. I’m doing this for Britain. This is the way I am going to help the country. You people can’t do anything. I am going to do it my way because that is what I think is right.”8 While there have been relatively few terrorist attacks in the United States recently, the United Kingdom—and Europe more broadly—have faced a more severe threat. The number of jihadist-related terrorist attacks in the European Union peaked in 2017 with 33 failed, foiled, and completed attacks. This number was up from 13 in 2016, 17 in 2015, and 2 in 2014. The geographic distribution of attacks also expanded. European Union countries experiencing jihadist-related terrorism now includes such countries as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, and Finland.
Topic:
National Security, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, and Europe Union
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and England

72. UK Aid Quality Indicators

Author:
Caitlin McKee, Ian Mitchell, and Arthur Baker
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper discusses the United Kingdom’s foreign aid quality based on an updated assessment of the Quality of Official Development Assistance (QuODA) published by the Center for Global Development. QuODA uses 24 quantitative indicators based on how aid is given, grouped into four themes: maximizing efficiency, fostering institutions, reducing the burden on recipient countries, and transparency and learning. These are based on principles which donor and recipient countries agreed to in a series of high-level meetings on aid effectiveness. We find UK aid quality has decreased from 2012 to 2016 and now ranks 15th out of the 27 countries assessed. The quality of its multilateral aid is relatively strong with significant contributions to EU institutions who score in the top half of multilateral agencies, and well-above the UK’s bilateral aid. We analyse the UK’s bilateral aid in detail, identifying areas of relative strength but also four recommendations for the UK Government to improve aid effectiveness
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Foreign Aid, and Multilateralism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

73. Operational Humanitarian Decision-making Infosheet

Author:
Leah Campbell and Paul Knox Clarke
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
ALNAP is undertaking a new piece of research to better understand how humanitarians can make effective decisions in situations of urgency and/or uncertainty. Why study humanitarian decision-making? Decision-making is an important, yet often criticised, aspect of effective humanitarian response. Evaluations point to numerous instances where decision-making has been slow, opaque and unaccountable. The importance of good decision-making has also emerged as a significant theme in ALNAP’s previous work on humanitarian leadership and coordination. Despite this, relatively little academic attention has been given to decision-making in humanitarian response.
Topic:
Leadership, Decision-Making, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

74. Making Operational Decisions in Humanitarian Response: A Literature Review

Author:
Leah Campbell and Paul Knox Clarke
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
During a crisis, humanitarian leaders must make a range of decisions including whether, when and how to intervene; how to address technical, logistical, political and security constraints; when and how to cease operations; and the list goes on. Many of these decisions are made in urgent circumstances, have life-saving implications, and take place in a context of uncertainty. The importance of effective decision-making in operational humanitarian response has emerged as a theme in ALNAP’s previous work on humanitarian leadership and coordination. However, little academic attention has been given to this subject so far. This literature review considers the context in which humanitarian leaders are asked to make decisions, explores the range of decision-making approaches which exist, and considers how effective these approaches might be in humanitarian environments. The paper draws from existing humanitarian literature and evaluations, and also from the wealth of experience which exists from the world of emergency management decision-making (including fires and public health emergencies). In doing so, it gathers existing knowledge, identifies gaps in understanding and proposes areas for future research. ALNAP is undertaking a new piece of research to better understand how humanitarians can make effective decisions in situations of urgency and/or uncertainty. To find out more about the research and how you can get involved read the Infosheet.
Topic:
Leadership, Crisis Management, Coordination, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Global Focus

75. 10 Things to Watch for on Brexit

Author:
Ken Gude
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
On December 11, British Parliament will vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal to leave the European Union (EU)—commonly known as Brexit. As of now, it seems clear that she is nowhere close to having the votes to pass it.1 The vote comes after a contentious referendum campaign in the United Kingdom and two years of difficult negotiations with the EU, which saw Prime Minister May and Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, formally agree on a Brexit withdrawal agreement on November 25.2 The deal would establish a transition period at least through the end of 2020, during which the United Kingdom would be formally outside the EU but still abiding by its rules and regulations.3 During this transition period, U.K. and EU leadership will negotiate the final terms of the future economic and trading relationship that will see the United Kingdom leave the EU single market and formal customs union yet likely remain in close alignment with the EU on many customs rules.4 If the United Kingdom does remain close to EU customs rules, it would limit the scope of any free trade deals the nation wants with non-EU countries that diverge from EU customs requirements.5 Furthermore, it would allow the United Kingdom to place new limits on the previously free movement of EU nationals into the nation.6 May’s Conservative Party is in the unenviable position of not having enough members of Parliament (MPs) to form an overall majority and, in order to form a government, it relies on an agreement with 10 MPs from the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to vote with them on important legislation.7 Yet the DUP opposes the withdrawal deal, as do many of May’s own Tory MPs.8 And then there is Britain’s main opposition, the Labour Party, which is against the deal, as is the third-largest party in Parliament, the Scottish National Party (SNP).9 The reality is that there still is no political consensus in the United Kingdom between the mutually exclusive positions of those who want a hard Brexit and a sharp break from the EU, a soft Brexit that maintains close alignment with the EU, and no Brexit at all.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Social Movement, European Union, Brexit, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

76. European Strategic Autonomy and Brexit

Author:
Peter Round, Bastain Giegerich, and Christian Mölling
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The United Kingdom is among the few European Union member states with full-spectrum military and defence-industrial capabilities. Through Brexit, the EU could lose 20% of its military and 40% of its defence-industrial capabilities, and thereby its influence and credibility as a security actor. The pertinent question is how to arrange the UK’s future participation in European defence.  Decision-making on defence matters in the international arena requires skilled diplomacy and the momentum to carry plans through the scrutiny of multiple parliaments. The EU risks inaction through inertia without the UK’s soft powers, placing strategic decision-making at risk. The Union needs the UK’s military enablers, but only until it can deliver its own. In addition, with the UK’s ‘special relationship’ with the United States suffering, London’s influence is on the wane.  More autonomy for the EU is possible within a framework of political partners that reaches beyond the EU, incorporating actors such as the UK, and also Norway.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, and North America

77. Fostering a Defense-Industrial Base for Europe: The Impact of Brexit

Author:
Torben Schütz and Christian Mölling
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The European defence technological industrial base (DTIB) represents a core element of European defence and deterrence – it is a strategic asset. Strong defence industries multiply the deterrent effect of the armed forces. However, national industries in most countries cannot offer the full range of supplies needed by national armed forces. Despite the fragmentary nature of its industries, Europe collectively has most of the range of defence-industrial capabilities, enabling, at least notionally, security of supply for EU and NATO partners. The UK’s share of defence-related turnover among European companies is almost 40%. The UK also makes defence-industrial contributions to many multi- national projects. While Brexit does not remove the UK’s defence-industrial base from the wider European environment, it will complicate its involvement. The EU’s growing role in defence-industrial matters, through regulation and financial resources, is shaping the wider European DTIB. At the same time, the Union’s ambition as a security actor creates an obligation to ensure that European partners outside the EU can contribute as effectively as possible to European defence and deterrence. In order to do this: The UK, EU institutions and EU governments should work toward as close a common understanding as possible that safeguarding a sustainable, innovative and competitive European defence industry is in the strategic interests of all political partners in Europe. The UK and its EU partners should establish politically and structurally significant flagship armament projects. Such projects would support a shared objective, namely to consolidate the still fragmented European DTIB, and in the process make it more competitive. A European Defence Industrial Review should be launched to help identify key industrial branches and companies that are of structural relevance to the European DTIB, and therefore to European defence and deterrence. For future regulations related to the defence industry, the EU should take a ‘systemic view’, i.e. also take into account how a regulation affects European partners and contributors outside the EU.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and London

78. Opportunities for Defense-Industrial Collaboration after Brexit

Author:
Douglas Barrie
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The United Kingdom should seek to continue to support defence-technology cooperation with the European Union and partner states across all military domains. Avoiding, or at least minimising, the second-order effects of Brexit on wider defence cooperation with European partners will be easier if the UK is directly involved in the EU’s defence-technology initiatives. Specific opportunities present themselves across the military domains: Pursue cooperation in the air domain with regard to future combat- aircraft technology. While collaboration at the platform level is unlikely in the near term, exploring common R&D in key systems, such as radar, propulsion, avionics, sensors and weapons, is achievable. In the land domain, explore partnership with France and Germany on participating in the development of a next-generation main battle tank. Collaboration on applicable technologies at the component and sub- system levels should also be encouraged. This could include armour and armament R&D, and laser weapons. In the maritime domain, support cooperation in the air-defence arena, including the use of laser weapons for ship self-defence, and the use of naval vessels for ballistic-missile defence. In the space domain, examine potential cooperation on next-generation communication satellite requirements, and wider collaboration on geospatial intelligence.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Brexit, Maritime, and Space
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, France, London, Germany, and Brussels

79. UK Participation in the EDA and the new EU defense package in the context of Brexit

Author:
Lucie béraud-Sudreau
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
To continue United Kingdom participation in European Union defence cooperation:  The UK, the European Commission and EU member states should strive to avoid near-term decisions that would shut out the UK from future participation in EU defence policies.  Pursue agreement on the nature of a ‘third-state’ position as applied to the UK, ensuring the goals of Brussels and London are met.  Identify ways for London to show its commitment to supporting the EU’s defence ambitions, signalling clearly a change from previous opposition.  Brussels and London need to agree the key preconditions that will under- pin any deal over the European Defence Agency (EDA), the European Defence Fund (EDF) and Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO).  The UK should aim to ensure a single point of entry through the European Defence Agency for defence cooperation with the EU, in the absence of a Commission directorate-general for security and defence. Reach agreement on an overarching financial contribution covering access to the EDA, the EDF and PESCO, while London also commits to contributing funding to specific projects it wishes to take part in.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, London, and Brussels

80. The UK’s potential role in enabling EU–NATO cooperation after Brexit

Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The United Kingdom, having expressed interest in a strong EU–UK security partnership and having indicated that, if anything, its commitment to NATO will be even stronger after Brexit, has an opportunity to be a leader and facilitator in the context of EU–NATO cooperation in meeting emerging threats. Several of the priority areas and action items defined by these two organisations, following a declaration to enhance their cooperation at NATO’s 2016 Warsaw Summit, play to the UK’s strengths: To increase the level of cooperation between the EU and NATO, and in order to implement the cooperation agenda, the UK should invest both financially and in terms of personnel, via voluntary national contributions to NATO. The UK taking on a leadership role in the area of inter-organisational cooperation would signal to EU partners that stronger support for NATO is not intended to weaken EU initiatives; it is an opportunity to stress the complementary nature of EU and NATO capabilities. Given its limited resources, the UK could, in effect, use engagement in EU–NATO cooperation to hedge its bets on both organisations. Stronger support for NATO can directly benefit the EU’s security and defence initiatives, while making sure that cooperation results in added value in both multinational frameworks, rather than fostering institutional competition.
Topic:
NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, London, and Brussels

81. Could the EU deliver on its military ambitions after Brexit?

Author:
Douglas Barrie, Ben Barry, Henry Boyd, Marie-Louise Chagnaud, Nick Childs, Bastain Giegerich, Christain Möelling, and Torben Schutz
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Institute for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
he ability of the European Union to act in defence, today and in the future, is an important reference point in the debate about EU strategic autonomy in the context of Brexit. The EU has set itself a military level of ambition. Under the heading of the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), EU member states want to be able to conduct a range of military operations. Together with the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), this study assesses to what extent the EU is able to fulfil this level of ambition, today and with an outlook towards 2030. The IISS and DGAP have developed policy-compliant scenarios to assess where possible capability shortfalls lie. Our findings benchmark existing and future EU member state capabilities against the force requirements the EU level of ambition generates.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, London, and Germany

82. European defence: what impact for NATO?

Author:
Thierry Tardy
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
NATO Defense College
Abstract:
The story of the EU’s efforts to acquire some kind of autonomy in the security domain has al- ways been told with reference to NATO. Back in Saint-Malo in 1998, French President Chirac and UK Prime Minister Blair framed the idea of a Eu- ropean Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), part- ly in response to NATO’s primacy in handling the Yugoslav conflicts. The objective at the time was for the Union to be given the “capacity for auton- omous action”,1 with “autonomous” referring to freedom from NATO and the United States. In this endeavour, the perception in NATO has always oscillated between indifference vis-à-vis a process that did not seem credible, and concern that an increased EU role in defence could under- mine NATO’s centrality and the transatlantic link. Over the last few years, the EU has embarked upon a process of beefing up its defence profile, raising anxieties in NATO circles. Most recently, references to the need for Europe to acquire stra- tegic autonomy or to move towards a European army, have added to the concerns. But are there reasons for NATO to worry about what the EU and its member states are doing? Is the EU aspira- tion in defence threatening the transatlantic link? Does the EU have the power to unsettle NATO?
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, and European Union
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, North Atlantic, France, and North America

83. UK Cyber Security Policy: The Socio-Technical Factors

Author:
Madeline Carr and Leonie Tanczer
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:
The UK has the largest internet economy in the G20 and has the stated ambition of making the UK the ‘safest place in the world to live and work online’. Cyber security has been elevated to a ‘tier one’ threat and is regarded by the government as both a challenge and as an opportunity for exporting UK expertise. Since the publication of the UK’s National Cyber Security Strategy (NCSS) in November 2011, the government has implemented many proactive as well as reactive measures to enhance both its cyber security capabilities as well as its market power. This article provides an analysis of the shift away from a reliance on market forces that dominated Western approaches to cyber security over the early years of this century. Specifically, it highlights three ‘market failures’ that have prompted UK policy responses: ongoing data breaches, the skills gap and inadequate private investment in cyber security. An analysis of these drivers as well as the responses demonstrates that the UK’s cyber security strategy has evolved from an initial heavy reliance on market forces and the public-private partnership to mitigate against threats into what is now a confident, rounded approach to balancing threats and opportunities.
Topic:
Government, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

84. The Attack on Syria in Response to the Use of Chemical Weapons: The Legal Dimension

Author:
Pnina Sharvit Baruch
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The combined attack by the United States, Britain, and France on Syrian targets following the Assad regime's use of chemical weapons has sparked extensive debate on the strike’s strategic aspects, and how, if at all, the offensive will affect the situation and the balance of power in Syria. The attack has also aroused a legal discussion, which once again highlights the limitations of the existing rules of international law when it comes to dealing with situations where the use of force is not based on the authorization of the Security Council or derived from the right to self defense. In this context, the forceful response, in and of itself, particularly being a combined attack by a number of key states, could have an impact on the development of international law with regard to the rules regarding possible legal justifications for the use of force between states.
Topic:
United Nations, Military Strategy, UN Security Council, and Chemical Weapons
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Syria, and North America

85. Oxfam Cymru and South Riverside Community Development Centre Skills for Life Project: Final Evaluation Report

Author:
Leon Quinn
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The Skills for Life project was a one-year project focused on supporting predominantly Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) women in Cardiff to “build long-term, lasting outcomes [beyond] moving into entry-level work and beyond ‘first jobs’ (whilst recognising their value as stepping stones)”. Skills for Life is a sister project of Future Skills, and run as part of Oxfam’s UK Programme Women United. It was delivered by Oxfam Cymru in partnership with South Riverside Community Development Centre (SRCDC).
Topic:
Poverty, Labor Issues, Sustainability, Skilled Labor, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, England, and Wales

86. The European Dimension of Nuclear Deterrence: French and British policies and future scenarios

Author:
Bruno Tertrais
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
While the idea of a “European nuclear deterrent” has a long history, it has recently made a comeback in the light of Russian aggression on the continent, growing tensions in the transatlantic relationship since the election of Donald Trump, as well as the British decision to leave the European Union. Voices are being heard in Germany in particular, arguing for stronger European nuclear autonomy. This paper analyses how the French and British deterrents could play a broader and stronger role in ensuring the security of the continent. Discarding the idea of a single “European deterrent”, it suggests possible credible pathways to enhance European nuclear cooperation based on French and possibly British forces, preferably outside the EU context. Furthermore, it suggests that future US decisions and policies towards Europe will be a critical factor in defining the range of realistic scenarios and outcomes.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, European Union, Deterrence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France, and North America

87. Endorsing Brexit or Preparing for ‘No Deal’? A Belgian Perspective

Author:
Alexander Mattelaer
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
What are we to make of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration outlining the future relationship between the EU and the UK? This European Policy Brief explores the current state of the Brexit debate from a Belgian perspective. While the Brexit deal deserves to be welcomed, domestic politics continue to act as a bottleneck. Whether or not the Withdrawal Agreement obtains parliamentary approval, Belgian authorities would do well to stay alert and prepare for multiple potential outcomes.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Brexit
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Belgium

88. Strategic deterrence redux: Nuclear weapons and European security

Author:
Leo Michel and Matti Pesu
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
One of the most notable consequences of the end of the Cold War was the diminished role of nuclear weapons in international relations. The world’s primary nuclear weapon powers, the United States and the Russian Federation, made considerable reductions in their nuclear forces. The climax of the process was the New START Treaty signed in 2010. Now, the optimism that characterized the first decades of the post-Cold War era is rapidly evaporating. Geopolitical competition again dominates global and regional security dynamics. Nuclear powers are modernizing their forces and introducing novel systems that may affect strategic stability. At the same time, existing arms control regimes are crumbling. This report takes stock of recent developments in deterrence in general, and nuclear deterrence in particular. Its main ambition is to understand how deterrence has changed in light of certain post-Cold War trends. To this end, the report introduces the basic principles of deterrence. It also explores the nuclear-related policies and capabilities of the four nuclear weapon states most directly involved in European security affairs – Russia, the United States, France, and the United Kingdom. Importantly, the report also analyses the implications of the recent trends in strategic deterrence for Northern Europe. This report is part of a research project conducted by the FIIA entitled ‘New Challenges for Strategic Deterrence in the 21st Century’. The project is part of the implementation of the Government Plan for Analysis, Assessment and Research 2018.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, United Kingdom, Europe, France, and North America

89. Ethics vs. Ethos in US and UK Megabanking

Author:
Edward J. Kane
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Company law in the US and UK fails to acknowledge that authorities’ propensity to rescue giant banks from the consequences of insolvency assigns taxpayers a coerced and badly structured equity stake in too-big-to-fail institutions. The entrenched managerial norm of maximizing stockholder value lends a misplaced legitimacy to efforts by TBTF managers to take on dangerous levels of tail risk because their bank’s deep downside is effectively eliminated by the prospect of unlimited taxpayer support. Conventional tools of prudential regulation constrain but do not de-legitimate this behavior. To accomplish that end, this paper calls for: (1) a formal recognition of the fiduciary duties that TBTF firms owe to taxpayers and (2) criminalizing aggressive pursuit of safety-net subsidies as “theft by safety net.”
Topic:
Finance, Ethics, Banks, Banking, and Ethos
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, North America, and United States of America

90. Sí o no? Will Catalonia go it alone?

Author:
Janko Bekić
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
The United Kingdom and Spain have many things in common. Both countries are former empires, constitutional monarchies and parliamentarydemocracies;of�iciallytheyare unitary states, however, devolution in the UK and the model of autonomous communities in Spain make them “federations without federalism”. Furthermore, they are both plurinational, in the sense that Britishness and Spanishness serve as overarching identities for the stateless nations of the English, Scots and Welsh within the UK, and the Castilians, Catalans, Basques and others within Spain (although, one could argue that the English and the Castilians are the real “owners” of the two countries). In the past, London as well as Madrid fought minority nationalisms with violence, triggering terrorist attacks by armed separatist and secessionist groups like the IRA and ETA. More recently, the central governments of the UK and Spain have been faced with peaceful and democratic independence movements in Scotland and Catalonia, to which they responded quite differently. While London allowed the Scottish independence referendum of September 2014, and promised to honor its result, Madrid remains adamantly opposed to a similar plebiscite in Catalonia, and vows to disrupt it with all legal means at its disposal (which, ultimately, includes the use of force). The differing approaches of British and Spanish governments to secessionism within their borders are mirrored in their foreign policies: the UK recognized the Serbian breakaway province of Kosovo as a sovereign and independent state, while Spain (along with four other EU members) refuses to do so.
Topic:
Federalism, Autonomy, and Independence
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Spain, Catalonia, Scotland, and Western Europe

91. The Impact of Energy Prices on Product Innovation: Evidence from the UK Refrigerator Market

Author:
François Cohen, Matthieu Glachant, and Marie Söderberg
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
This paper uses product-level data from the UK refrigerator market to evaluate the impact of electricity prices on product innovation. Our best estimate is that a 10% increase in the electricity price reduces the average energy consumption of commercialized refrigerator models by 2%. A large share of this reduction is explained by a reduction of freezing space. We also show that the exit of energy-inefficient products contributes more to energy reduction than the launch of new energy-efficient models. These findings suggest that innovation – the development of better technologies embodied in new products – does not respond strongly to energy price variations.
Topic:
Innovation, Electricity, Efficiency, and Energy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

92. Nuclear Governance and Legislation in Four Nuclear-Armed Democracies

Author:
Avner Cohen and Brandon Mok
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Abstract:
The report presents a set of comparative raw data on the question of how four Western democratic nuclear-weapon states— the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Israel—handle the essential tension between nuclear weapons (which require secrecy) and liberal democracy. The initial intent of this work was to assist Dr. Cohen in his preparations for an unprecedented hearing at the Israeli High Court of Justice in September 2017, whereby the Court would hear a petition, signed by over 100 Israeli citizens, calling for regulation and oversight of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission. The petitioners cited the legal lacuna under which Israel’s nuclear activities operate, devoid of oversight and beyond the realm of law, in violation of fundamental democratic principles. In particular, the study assesses the comprehensiveness—the breadth and depth—of the legislative, regulatory, scientific, and policy mechanisms that each of these four democratic states have created to govern its nuclear affairs in the following categories or parameters: legislation, organizations (directly responsible for either civilian and military applications of nuclear materials or both), regulation, oversight, secrecy, and policy making. Such material has never before been publicly available in a condensed form in one location, making this study of use to anyone interested in the problem of governing the atom. It will be updated as structures and policy change.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Affairs, Democracy, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, Israel, France, North America, and United States of America

93. A Singapore on the Thames? Post-Brexit Deregulation in the UK

Author:
Anastasia Nesvetailova, Ronen Palan, Stefano Pagliari, John Grahl, Richard Murphy, Izabella Kaminska, and Thomas Christiansen
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:
The so-called 'Singapore on the Thames' scenarios for post-Brexit UK tend to envisage a country that has abandoned the red tape of EU regulations, likely adopted a unilateral free trade approach and introduced a low taxation regime for the corporate sector. Technically, it is possible to make Britain into a low corporate tax jurisdiction. However, while the abolition of corporation tax would create an entirely tax-free environment for foreign shareholders in UK companies, this measure would end up increasing taxes on UK privately owned businesses. In the financial sector post-Brexit, the deregulated fintech industry is likely to evolve along the historical path of the unregulated Eurodollar markets, creating additional risks for financial stability, transparency and the reputation of the UK. In reality, two sets of political-economic factors will influence the UK's economic strategy post-Brexit: domestic alliances and the international policy context.
Topic:
Regulation, Brexit, and Deregulation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

94. Avoiding the Pitfalls of Prevent

Author:
Joana Cook
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS)
Abstract:
Prevent, one of four strands of the UK government’s counter-terrorism strategy, aims to ‘stop people becoming terrorists or supporting terrorism.’ Established in 2003, Prevent has included numerous initiatives that have specifically focused on women, for example in the context of mosque reformation and the inclusion of ‘moderate voices,’ or the creation of women’s stakeholder groups (NMWAG) to advise the government on prevention issues. Some of these have proved to be highly contentious, and have undergone numerous transformations, with some even calling for the termination of the Prevent program altogether. This paper will outline some specific Prevent, and related countering violent extremism (CVE), initiatives that have focused on women and highlight key criticisms of both the initiatives themselves, and the wider UK counter-terrorism and CVE agenda. By interrogating these, it aims to offer a case study of how lessons learned in the UK can inform policy in other contexts where women are being engaged to counter violent extremism.
Topic:
Counter-terrorism, Women, and Countering Violent Extremism
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

95. Good Jobs in Greater Manchester: The Role of Employment Charters

Author:
Emily Ball, Ceri Hughes, Donna-Louise Hurrell, and Tom Skinner
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
A more inclusive labour market would offer more people the chance to take part in rewarding, well-paid work, bringing both economic and social benefits. In the context of declining union membership, limited employment regulation and a growing disconnect between pay and living costs, employment charters are one means for cities to engage employers and start a conversation about how their employment practices can enable local people to live and work well. This paper and the accompanying case studies grew out of a conversation about ways to facilitate more inclusive growth in cities. It focuses on Greater Manchester and reviews the rationale, design and impact of several local employment charter initiatives in the UK to assess the role that they can play in creating and sustaining quality jobs.
Topic:
Poverty, Labor Issues, Employment, and Inequality
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

96. Building a More Equal Scotland: Designing Scotland’s Poverty and Inequality Commission

Author:
David Eiser, Ryan McQuigg, and Francis Stuart
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
In 2015 Oxfam Scotland called for the creation of an Inequality Commission, building on Scotland’s politicians from across all parties stating their support to tackle economic inequality. The Scottish government has committed to establishing a Poverty and Inequality Commission in 2017–18, but its design will be critical. This report, produced in collaboration with the Fraser of Allander Institute, explores the scale of inequality in Scotland and the drivers behind it. The report examines some, but not all, of the intersecting and overlapping dimensions of economic inequality and poverty – as well as potential policy responses and the powers of the Scottish Parliament. The report then explores lessons from the work of previous commissions and makes a series of recommendations for the Scottish government as it establishes the new Poverty and Inequality Commission.
Topic:
Poverty, Governance, Inequality, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland

97. Why is Women’s Work Low-Paid? Establishing a framework for understanding the causes of low pay among professions traditionally dominated by women

Author:
Jill Rubery
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This discussion paper was commissioned by Oxfam’s UK Programme to understand why certain occupations in the UK labour market, traditionally dominated by women, are low-paid. The paper argues that jobs associated with traditional and outdated notions of ‘women’s role in the home’ extends into the jobs market. This affects attitudes towards remuneration in professions such as cleaning and caring. The paper sets out a framework for understanding the risks of low pay and to explore the issue of the undervaluing of low-paid jobs with respect primarily to women. The author calls these the five ‘V’s: visibility, valuation, vocation, value-added and variance, and sets out a possible series of policy responses.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Poverty, Labor Issues, Inequality, Income Inequality, and Labor Rights
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

98. How Much Is That Star in the Window? Professorial Salaries and Research Performance in UK Universities

Author:
Gianni De Fraja, Giovanni Facchini, and John Gathergood
Publication Date:
07-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Using individual level data on the salary of all UK university professors, matched to results on the performance of academic departments from the 2014 Research Excellence Framework, we study the relationship between academic salaries and research performance. The UK higher education sector is particularly interesting because professorial salaries are unregulated and the outcome of the official research evaluation is a key financial concern of universities. To frame our analysis, we present a simple model of university pay determination, which shows that pay level and pay inequality in a department are positively related to performance. Our empirical results confirm these theoretical predictions; we also find that the pay-performance relationship is weaker for the more established and better paying universities. Our findings are also consistent with the idea that higher salaries have been used by departments to recruit academics more likely to improve their performance.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Inequality, Research, Higher Education, and Academia
Political Geography:
United Kingdom

99. Brexit and its discontents

Author:
Janko Bekić
Publication Date:
09-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
In the weeks following June 23rd, the day of the historic Brexit vote, it seemed as if the United Kingdom was on the brink of dissolution. Exasperated by the prospect of Scotland being dragged out of the European Union against the clearly expressed will of its population (62 percent voted “remain”), Scottish First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party Nicola Sturgeon announced the preparation of a second independence referendum, which – if successful – would sever Scotland’s ties with the UK, and keep it in the EU. Emboldened by SNP’s move, Sinn Fein’s deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland Martin McGuinness called for a border poll on the uni�ication of Ireland. His line of reasoning was the same as Sturgeon’s: the majority of voters in Northern Ireland voted “remain” (56 percent) and would not be forced out of the EU by English and Welsh “leave” voters. Less than two years after the original Scottish independence referendum Downing Street was faced with a new wave of secessionism and separatism. It was generally accepted that the surprising result of the plebiscite on UK’s EU membership might persuade a portion of the “no” voters from the September 2014 Scottish independence referendum to change their minds and tip the scales in favour of secession. Namely, a considerable number of Scottish “no” voters in 2014 opted for the continuation of the union with England precisely out of fear that an independent Scotland would have to exit the EU and renegotiate its admission into the club. SNP’s rationale after June 23rd was that these people would now naturally join the pro-independence camp and help it pass the 50 percent hurdle. However, polling conducted by YouGov during the summer showed that 50 percent of Scots opposed a new referendum on independence, while only 37 percent supported it. If a new referendum was to be held nevertheless, 54 percent would vote against independence and 46 percent in favour – a shift of only one percent point compared to the original referendum which ended with the result 55 percent to 45 percent.
Topic:
Europe Union, Brexit, and Autonomy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, England, North Ireland, Scotland, and Wales

100. Portfolio Diversification Between Developed And Less Developed Economies

Author:
Tirimisiyu F. Oloko
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA)
Abstract:
This study examines the hedging effectiveness of portfolio investment diversification between developed and developing economies; with focus on the Nigerian stock asset vis-à-vis the stock assets of the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK). Its main contribution is in the analysis of optimal portfolio diversification using optimal portfolio weight (OPW) and optimal hedging ratio (OHR). Empirical findings show that the OPW and OHR are low, which indicates impressive potential gains from combining Nigerian stock assets in an investment portfolio with US and UK stock assets. In addition, exchange rate volatility is found to pose stern limitation on the potential benefits of this portfolio diversification arrangement. It is therefore recommended that the monetary authority in Nigeria should pursue policies towards reducing exchange rate volatility to the barest minimum. This will possibly attract more investors from developed economies who might be willing to combine Nigerian stock in their investment portfolio to minimize portfolio risk.
Topic:
Economics, Investment, Diversification, and Stock Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, United Kingdom, Nigeria, and United States of America