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2. Theories of Democratic Change Phase III: Transitions from Conflict
- Author:
- Jennifer R. Dresden, Thomas E. Flores, and Irfan Nooruddin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The notion that robust democracy and violent conflict are linked is commonplace. Many observers of international politics attribute violent conflict in contexts as diverse as Myanmar and Syria to failures of democracy. Conversely, most agree that continuing political violence undermines any effort to build strong democratic institutions in Libya or South Sudan. As a matter of policy, democratization has often been promoted not only as an end in itself but as a means toward building peace in societies scarred by violence. Development professionals tackle these challenges daily, confronting vicious cycles of political violence and weak democratic institutions. At the same time, scholars have dedicated intense scrutiny to these questions, often finding that the interrelationships between conflict and democracy belie easy categorization. This report, the third in a series on democratic theories of change, critically engages with this literature to ask three questions: Under what circumstances do democratic practice or movement toward democracy quell (or exacerbate) the risk of different kinds of violent conflict? Under what circumstances do the risk and experience of violent conflict undermine democratic practice? How can external interventions mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities inherent in transitions to democracy and peace? To answer these questions, a research team at George Mason University and Georgetown University spent eight months compiling, organizing, and evaluating the academic literature connecting democratic practice and violent conflict, which spans the fields of political science, economics, peace studies, anthropology, sociology, and psychology. This work was funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (the DRG Center), under the Institute of International Education’s (IIE’s) Democracy Fellows and Grants Program. Beginning in May 2018, the authors organized a team of three research assistants, who read and summarized more than 600 journal articles, books, reports, and newspaper articles. The resulting White Paper was the subject of an August 2018 workshop with representatives from USAID and an interdisciplinary group of eight scholars with expertise in conflict and democracy. Based on their feedback, the authors developed a new Theories of Change Matrix and White Paper in October 2018. This draft received further written feedback from USAID and another three scholars. The core team then revised the report again to produce this final draft. This report’s approach to the literature differs from past phases of the Theories of Democratic Change project. While past reports detailed the hypothesized causes of democratic backsliding (Phase I) and democratic transitions (Phase II), this report focuses on the reciprocal relationship between democratic practice and conflict. The report therefore organizes hypotheses into two questions and then sub-categories within each question.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Education, Democracy, Conflict, Political Science, and USAID
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Syria, North America, Myanmar, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America
3. Shifting Borders: Africa’s Displacement Crisis and Its Security Implications
- Author:
- Wendy Williams
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen record numbers of Africans forcibly displaced from their homes. The most recent figure of 25 million people displaced is a 500-percent increase from 2005. While much attention focuses on economic migrants who are trying to cross into Europe, 95 percent of those who are displaced remain on the continent. Two-thirds of these are displaced within their home countries. In short, the reality faced is more accurately characterized as an African displacement, rather than a European migrant, crisis. This paper explores the drivers of population displacement in Africa, security ramifications, and priorities for reversing this destabilizing trend.
- Topic:
- Migration, Diaspora, Political stability, and Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Uganda, South Sudan, and Sahara
4. Envisioning a Stable South Sudan
- Author:
- Luka Biong Deng Kuol, Majak D'Agoôt, Remember Miamingi, Lauren Hutton, Phillip Kasaija Apuuli, Luol Deim Kuol, and Godfrey Musila
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The internal conflict and resulting humanitarian crisis embroiling South Sudan since December 2013 have exposed the country’s fragility. A weak national identity, ethnically based violence, a legacy of violent conflict resolution, personalized and patronage-based politics, weak institutional checks on the abuse of power, and the absence of encompassing leadership, among other factors, all pose obstacles to peacebuilding. As a result, envisaging a stable South Sudan has become increasingly difficult for many South Sudanese and external observers. With regional and international diplomacy rightly focused on negotiating an immediate end to hostilities, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has asked a selection of South Sudanese and international scholars, security practitioners, and civil society leaders to share their visions of the strategic issues South Sudan must address if it is to make a transition from its current state of dissimilation to a more stable reality. These visions, taken individually and collectively, are intended to help sketch out some of the priorities and prerequisites for transforming today’s highly fragmented security landscape in South Sudan to one in which its citizens are safe in their own country and are protected from external threats.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and Humanitarian Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa
5. Africa Lags in Protections against Human Trafficking
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Trafficking in persons has become a multibillion dollar business in Africa that African governments have been slow to address.
- Topic:
- Migration, United Nations, Children, Women, Slavery, and Human Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Burundi, Eritrea, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Mediterranean
6. Africa’s Unresolved Conflicts a Key Driver of Food Insecurity
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Conflict is a central factor in the geography of Africa’s food insecurity. The acuteness of this insecurity deepens the longer a conflict continues.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Food Security, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Burundi, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Central African Republic
7. Record Number of Forcibly Displaced Africans Likely to Grow
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- With Africa's population expected to double by 2050, the rapid increase in the number of forcibly displaced Africans of the past decade will continue to expand unless key drivers are reversed.
- Topic:
- Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, and Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Central African Republic
8. Timeline of South Sudan Peace Agreements and Violence
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite multiple ceasefires and peace agreements signed since the conflict began in 2013, the humanitarian costs to the citizens of South Sudan continue to grow.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Humanitarian Intervention, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa
9. Africa and the Global Compact on Refugees: Inclusive Policy Responses to Forced Displacement
- Author:
- Amanda Coffie, Richard Alemdjrodo, Patience Adzande, and Jocelyn Perry
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- According to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) esti- mates, nearly sixty-six million people had been forced to leave their homes and migrate as a result of conflict, political violence, ethnic and religious tensions, and natural disasters as of 2016.1 These rather high estimates contributed to the UN’s 2016 launch of the New York Declaration for Migrants and Refugees to enshrine global commitments to the challenges posed by high levels of forced displace- ment, and develop concrete plans for their resolution. This policy briefing note addresses the African Union and African govern- ments, as well as African scholars and policymakers regarding Africa’s particular position within global displacement and migration trends. It provides recommen- dations in the lead-up to the adoption of the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) at a special summit in Morocco in December 2018.
- Topic:
- Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Chad, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Democratic Republic of Congo
10. The Loss of Arms And Ammunition In Peace Operations: Mapping And Addressing The Challenge
- Author:
- Jefferson Brehm
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Peace Operations Review
- Abstract:
- In January 2016, al-Shabaab militants attacked an African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forward operating base in El Adde, Somalia. They held the base for several days before the Kenya Defence Forces managed to reclaim it. Media reporting has understandably focused on the loss of life among the Kenyan peacekeepers—widely reported to be upwards of 100 men and women. The loss of materiel has received considerably less attention, but is of great importance. Al-Shabaab potentially put AMISOM’s personnel and local communities in even greater peril by seizing their weapons, ammunition, vehicles, and communications equipment. The El Adde attack resulted in one of the largest recorded single incidents of diversion of materiel from peacekeepers, but was far from an isolated incident. As the Small Arms Survey has documented, the loss of equipment during peace operations is routine and widespread. In fact, thousands of small arms and light weapons, and millions of rounds of ammunition have entered the black market from more than a dozen missions undertaken by the United Nations (UN) and several regional organizations. Logistical challenges to security management are not specific to UN missions but pose challenges for all organizations that engage in peace operations because all peacekeepers who deploy with military hardware face the risk of losses. Small Arms Survey research suggests a number of ways that these losses can be resisted or better managed, including through improved record-keeping, tailoring procedures to the specific operational environment, and respecting the operational limitations of inspection regimes.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Weapons, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
11. Two Years After The Juba Clashes: Has Unmiss's Protection of Displaced people Improved?
- Author:
- Thijs Van Laer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Peace Operations Review
- Abstract:
- In July 2016, serious fighting erupted in Juba, the capital of South Sudan, when a peace agreement signed less than a year before broke down. Many citizens were killed, often in deliberate, ethnically motivated attacks, while others sought safety in the vicinity of the premises of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). Many more had already found relative safety there after earlier violence and atrocities in 2013. As of June 28, 2018, more than 210,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) are living under UNMISS protection. Despite its responsibility to protect those IDPs, in July 2016 peacekeepers abandoned their positions at the IDP site, and more than 20 civilians were killed. In addition, two Chinese peacekeepers died after a grenade exploded near their armored personnel carrier. Despite repeated alerts, UNMISS did not intervene when government security forces forced their way into a nearby hotel and killed one and sexually abused other UN and humanitarian personnel residing there. Much has been written about the woefully inadequate response by the UN peace operation to these attacks, blamed by a UN inquiry on the lack of leadership, inadequate coordination, and poor troop performance. The mission’s military commander was sacked after the inquiry.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Displacement, and Civilians
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
12. Iraq After ISIS: The Other Half of Victory Dealing with the Civil Dimension
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States, its allies, and international organizations are just beginning to come to grips with the civil dimensions of "failed state" wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, the Sudans, Syria, and Yemen. In each case, it is clear that the civil dimension of the war will ultimately be as important as the military one. Any meaningful form of "victory" requires far more than defeating the current extremist threat in military terms, and reaching some temporary compromise between the major factions that divide the country. The current insurgent and other security threats exist largely because of the deep divisions within the state, the past and current failures of the government to deal with such internal divisions, and the chronic failure to meet the economic, security, and social needs of much of the nation's population. In practical terms, these failures make a given host government, other contending factions, and competing outside powers as much of a threat to each nation’s stability and future as Islamic extremists and other hostile forces. Regardless of the scale of any defeat of extremists, the other internal tensions and divisions with each country also threaten to make any such “victory” a prelude to new forms of civil war, and/or an enduring failure to cope with security, stability, recovery, and development. Any real form of victory requires a different approach to stability operations and civil-military affairs. In each case, the country the U.S. is seeking to aid failed to make the necessary economic progress and reforms to meet the needs of its people – and sharply growing population – long before the fighting began. The growth of these problems over a period of decades helped trigger the sectarian, ethnic, and other divisions that made such states vulnerable to extremism and civil conflict, and made it impossible for the government to respond effectively to crises and wars.
- Topic:
- Security, War, Fragile/Failed State, ISIS, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sundan
13. Humanitarian Costs of South Sudan Conflict Continue to Escalate
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Now in its fifth year, South Sudan’s current conflict has displaced 4.5 million people—the same number of southern Sudanese displaced during the entire three-decade Sudan civil war.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Refugees, and Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa
14. Accessing South Sudan: Humanitarian Aid in a Time of Crisis
- Author:
- Erol Yayboke
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Since gaining its independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan has struggled to fulfill the promise of a new nation, eventually descending into civil war in late 2013. The country is now bearing the devastating human and financial costs of a complex conflict with ever-changing armed and political actors. Aid organizations face an array of humanitarian access constraints while working to address the acute needs of 7 million people, roughly half of the country. Although there is cause for cautious optimism after a peace agreement was signed in September 2018, these humanitarian needs will only grow in the absence of sustainable peace and a political solution to the man-made crisis in South Sudan.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Conflict, Peace, State Building, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
15. outh Sudan Gender Analysis: A snapshot situation analysis of the differential impact of the humanitarian crisis on women, girls, men and boys in South Sudan
- Author:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The continuing conflict in South Sudan, which began in December 2013, is having a devastating impact on the lives and livelihoods of millions of South Sudanese women, men, boys and girls, with the result that South Sudan is now one of the most food-insecure countries in the world. Women and men of all ages are suffering from the effects of conflict, including abuses and loss of control over, and access to, vital resources. This report presents the results of a gender analysis field study conducted in South Sudan in May-June 2016. The study was carried out as part of the ECHO-ERC project ‘Institutionalizing Gender in Emergencies: Bridging Policy and Practice’. The report highlights the different impacts the conflict is having on women and men; whether and how these needs are being addressed; and where opportunities may exist for UN agencies, donors, South Sudanese authorities and civil society to incorporate a stronger gender element into their programmes and responses. It also aims to explain how programmes can be gender-sensitive in times of protracted conflict.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, United Nations, Humanitarian Intervention, Food Assistance, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
16. The Human Cost of Uncontrolled Arms in Africa: Cross-national research on seven African countries
- Author:
- Adesoji Adeniyi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Prolonged conflict, proxy wars, and inter-communal strife characterize many regions in Africa. This violence has caused untold atrocities, deaths, sexual violence, and displacement, as well as accelerating poverty and shattering lives and communities across the continent. Uncontrolled arms in Africa fuel this violence and are increasingly putting lives at immense risk. This report provides evidence about the human costs of uncontrolled arms: injuries and fatalities, internally displaced people and refugees, gender-based violence, and erosion of social cohesion and communal trust. Covering Mali, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Libya, it provides arms control recommendations to African states, the African Union and Regional Economic Communities, donor communities, and the private sector.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Refugees, Arms Trade, Conflict, Violence, Proxy War, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Libya, Somalia, Mali, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Democratic Republic of Congo
17. Beyond Liberal Peace: Transcending Elite Pacts and Militarized Politics in South Sudan
- Author:
- Iris Tintswalo Nxumalo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- The ongoing civil war in South Sudan was triggered by factionalism within the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), reflecting deep divisions and structural challenges within the South Sudanese elite and the state. Despite regional and international efforts at peacemaking and the signing of the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCISS) in August 2015, there remain episodes of conflict. This brief calls for a renewed political process that seeks to address the multiple levels of conflict, true reconciliation, and cooperation through recognition of mutual interests among emerging South Sudanese elites, and between them and the people through greater inclusivity in national dialogues and governance structures.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Regional Cooperation, Political structure, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
18. Revisiting the Dismissal of the UNMISS Force Commander in South Sudan
- Author:
- Charles Ukeje and Kizito Sabala
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Social Science Research Council
- Abstract:
- This policy briefing note examines the implications of the altercation between the United Nations (UN) and Kenya following the dismissal of the Force Commander of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), Lieutenant General Johnson Ondieki, a Kenyan citizen. An Independent Special Investigation established by the UN blamed poor leadership and judgment for the attacks on Terrain camp—a UN facility in Juba, the capital of South Sudan—in July 2016, which led to several deaths. Although the UN promptly requested that Kenya appoint a replacement, the country considered the dismissal of its citizen unnecessarily punitive and refused.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Leadership, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan
19. Democratise or Disintegrate: How the AU Can Help South Sudan
- Author:
- Amanda Lucey and Liezelle Kumalo
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Peace Operations Review
- Abstract:
- he implementation of South Sudan’s latest peace agreement appears to be at a standstill. Insecurity, food shortages and the breakdown in governance have forced more than 1.5 million people to flee the country. President Salva Kiir’s announcement of a forthcoming national dialogue offers some hope. Yet people are divided on the legitimacy of the process: is this a ruse to detract attention from important reforms, or is it an opportunity to finally broaden the political process in South Sudan? External actors, including the African Union (AU), are also at odds with one another. This report looks at how the AU can enhance the prospects for peace in South Sudan.
- Topic:
- Security, Regional Cooperation, Food, Reform, Peace, and African Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
20. Diplomacy in Action: Expanding the UN Security Council's Role in Crisis and Conflict Prevention
- Author:
- Richard Gowan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Peace Operations Review
- Abstract:
- The UN Security Council has the potential to play a greater direct role in crisis response and mediation not only in New York, but in the field. It has done so sporadically in the past. In its early years, the Council experimented with inter-governmental missions to investigate potential conflicts and undertake mediation in cases including the Balkans and Indonesia. In the post-Cold War period, Council missions engaged directly in crisis diplomacy in multiple conflicts, playing an important peacemaking role in East Timor in 1999. States outside the Council contributed to these efforts through Groups of Friends. Yet the Council has frequently handed off conflict prevention and resolution to the Secretary-General and other UN officials, or allowed other organizations or states to take the lead in responding to looming conflicts. Despite current political frictions, Council members would like to engage more directly in some situations on its agenda. 2016 saw Council missions to Burundi, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. These have had limited impact due to strategy and procedural differences among participants, in addition to weak follow-up. The Secretary-General should not view increased Council activism as a challenge to his own work, but look for ways to support and harness efforts by Council members to address looming crises. The Council should streamline its working methods and operational approaches to engaging in conflict prevention .
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, United Nations, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Burundi, South Sudan, and Democratic Republic of Congo
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