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2. Theories of Democratic Change Phase III: Transitions from Conflict
- Author:
- Jennifer R. Dresden, Thomas E. Flores, and Irfan Nooruddin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The notion that robust democracy and violent conflict are linked is commonplace. Many observers of international politics attribute violent conflict in contexts as diverse as Myanmar and Syria to failures of democracy. Conversely, most agree that continuing political violence undermines any effort to build strong democratic institutions in Libya or South Sudan. As a matter of policy, democratization has often been promoted not only as an end in itself but as a means toward building peace in societies scarred by violence. Development professionals tackle these challenges daily, confronting vicious cycles of political violence and weak democratic institutions. At the same time, scholars have dedicated intense scrutiny to these questions, often finding that the interrelationships between conflict and democracy belie easy categorization. This report, the third in a series on democratic theories of change, critically engages with this literature to ask three questions: Under what circumstances do democratic practice or movement toward democracy quell (or exacerbate) the risk of different kinds of violent conflict? Under what circumstances do the risk and experience of violent conflict undermine democratic practice? How can external interventions mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities inherent in transitions to democracy and peace? To answer these questions, a research team at George Mason University and Georgetown University spent eight months compiling, organizing, and evaluating the academic literature connecting democratic practice and violent conflict, which spans the fields of political science, economics, peace studies, anthropology, sociology, and psychology. This work was funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (the DRG Center), under the Institute of International Education’s (IIE’s) Democracy Fellows and Grants Program. Beginning in May 2018, the authors organized a team of three research assistants, who read and summarized more than 600 journal articles, books, reports, and newspaper articles. The resulting White Paper was the subject of an August 2018 workshop with representatives from USAID and an interdisciplinary group of eight scholars with expertise in conflict and democracy. Based on their feedback, the authors developed a new Theories of Change Matrix and White Paper in October 2018. This draft received further written feedback from USAID and another three scholars. The core team then revised the report again to produce this final draft. This report’s approach to the literature differs from past phases of the Theories of Democratic Change project. While past reports detailed the hypothesized causes of democratic backsliding (Phase I) and democratic transitions (Phase II), this report focuses on the reciprocal relationship between democratic practice and conflict. The report therefore organizes hypotheses into two questions and then sub-categories within each question.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Education, Democracy, Conflict, Political Science, and USAID
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Syria, North America, Myanmar, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America
3. Shifting Borders: Africa’s Displacement Crisis and Its Security Implications
- Author:
- Wendy Williams
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent years have seen record numbers of Africans forcibly displaced from their homes. The most recent figure of 25 million people displaced is a 500-percent increase from 2005. While much attention focuses on economic migrants who are trying to cross into Europe, 95 percent of those who are displaced remain on the continent. Two-thirds of these are displaced within their home countries. In short, the reality faced is more accurately characterized as an African displacement, rather than a European migrant, crisis. This paper explores the drivers of population displacement in Africa, security ramifications, and priorities for reversing this destabilizing trend.
- Topic:
- Migration, Diaspora, Political stability, and Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Uganda, South Sudan, and Sahara
4. Envisioning a Stable South Sudan
- Author:
- Luka Biong Deng Kuol, Majak D'Agoôt, Remember Miamingi, Lauren Hutton, Phillip Kasaija Apuuli, Luol Deim Kuol, and Godfrey Musila
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- The internal conflict and resulting humanitarian crisis embroiling South Sudan since December 2013 have exposed the country’s fragility. A weak national identity, ethnically based violence, a legacy of violent conflict resolution, personalized and patronage-based politics, weak institutional checks on the abuse of power, and the absence of encompassing leadership, among other factors, all pose obstacles to peacebuilding. As a result, envisaging a stable South Sudan has become increasingly difficult for many South Sudanese and external observers. With regional and international diplomacy rightly focused on negotiating an immediate end to hostilities, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies has asked a selection of South Sudanese and international scholars, security practitioners, and civil society leaders to share their visions of the strategic issues South Sudan must address if it is to make a transition from its current state of dissimilation to a more stable reality. These visions, taken individually and collectively, are intended to help sketch out some of the priorities and prerequisites for transforming today’s highly fragmented security landscape in South Sudan to one in which its citizens are safe in their own country and are protected from external threats.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Nationalism, Regional Cooperation, United Nations, and Humanitarian Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Africa, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa
5. Africa Lags in Protections against Human Trafficking
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Trafficking in persons has become a multibillion dollar business in Africa that African governments have been slow to address.
- Topic:
- Migration, United Nations, Children, Women, Slavery, and Human Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Ethiopia, Egypt, Burundi, Eritrea, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and Mediterranean
6. Africa’s Unresolved Conflicts a Key Driver of Food Insecurity
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Conflict is a central factor in the geography of Africa’s food insecurity. The acuteness of this insecurity deepens the longer a conflict continues.
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, Food Security, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Nigeria, Burundi, South Sudan, Cameroon, and Central African Republic
7. Record Number of Forcibly Displaced Africans Likely to Grow
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- With Africa's population expected to double by 2050, the rapid increase in the number of forcibly displaced Africans of the past decade will continue to expand unless key drivers are reversed.
- Topic:
- Migration, United Nations, Diaspora, and Displacement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, South Sudan, and Central African Republic
8. Timeline of South Sudan Peace Agreements and Violence
- Author:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Africa Center for Strategic Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite multiple ceasefires and peace agreements signed since the conflict began in 2013, the humanitarian costs to the citizens of South Sudan continue to grow.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Humanitarian Intervention, Negotiation, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, East Africa, South Sudan, and Central Africa