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1. Macro-financial implications of public debt in South Africa: The role of financial regimes

Author:
Theshne Kisten
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the role of financial frictions in the public debt–growth nexus, documenting that a public debt shock has different macro-financial implications dependent on the state of financial markets in South Africa. A non-linear vector autoregression model is estimated which allows the transmission mechanism to be characterized by two distinct financial regimes: stressful versus normal. The empirical results suggest that a public debt shock has a broadly insignificant impact on economic growth over the full sample, reflecting the ineffectiveness of government borrowing in stimulating the economy, and could suggest that the high and growing debt service costs faced by the government reduces funds available for investment purposes. Debt shocks are found to be deflationary in both regimes, lending support to the precautionary savings effect and the existence of a well-developed financial market, while interest rates decline with the immediate impact being moderately larger in the stress regime, providing evidence of the accommodative stance between fiscal policy and monetary policy. In response to a public debt shock, financial conditions show an immediate and transitory improvement in the high-stress regime; however, in the low-stress regime there is an immediate yet negligible improvement in financial conditions. Lastly, the responses evolve over time, with fiscal policy being less effective in stimulating the economy in the post-crisis period, but it has been effective in reducing financial stress in the high-stress regime.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Economic Growth, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

2. Nation building in post-conflict settings: Evidence from South Africa

Author:
Thomas Gautier, Daniela Horta-Saenz, and Gianluca Russo
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
How do states rebuild nations after a major conflict? Truth and Reconciliation Commissions (TRCs) have emerged as one of the most common interventions to achieve this objective. Despite their popularity, little is known about their efficacy to foster reconciliation and nation building. We fill this gap by studying the seminal TRC established in South Africa after the end of the Apartheid. To measure exposure to TRC across South African municipalities, we leverage quasi-random variation in media coverage of the TRC message. South African municipalities with higher historical exposure to TRC on media have lower levels of violence today. This effect is driven by improved nation building and higher trust towards post-Apartheid institutions. Exploiting daily variation in TRC hearings and mediatic exposure in the short run, we bolster our interpretation that our long-run results are forged in the years of TRC activity. The same evidence suggests that our results are driven by the coverage of TRC on media as opposed to generic media exposure.
Topic:
Reconciliation, Post-Conflict, Trust, Nation Building, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

3. Employment transitions with high unemployment and a small informal sector: Examining worker flows during normal and recessionary periods in South Africa

Author:
Shakeba Foster
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines employment transitions in the South African labour market. Using the Post-Apartheid Labour Market Series, it analyses flows between the formal sector, informal sector, and unemployment, paying specific attention to how these flows differ during recessions. It explicitly considers heterogeneity within the informal sector by separately accounting for wage employment and self-employment as well as upper-tier and lower-tier informal sector segments. Transition probabilities are estimated using dynamic discrete choice models, and the extent to which transitions affect changes in real wages is estimated using a linear model. The results provide evidence of heterogeneity within the informal sector and segmentation between wage employment and self-employment. They also show a lag in the employment impacts following a recession. Finally, the paper provides suggestive evidence that the upper-tier segment of the informal sector acts as a buffer during recessionary periods by absorbing labour that would otherwise be unemployed or relegated to precarious lower-tier informal employment.
Topic:
Employment, Labor Market, Informal Economy, and Recession
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

4. South Africa-Russia Maintain Special Relations

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although South Africa declares it is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and offers mediation, it remains a de facto ally of Russia. This is due to the strong sentiment among the ruling elites for the period of cooperation with the USSR, its successor Russia and its activity and influence in this country, and the perception that BRICS will help elevate South Africa’s international importance. If Vladimir Putin visits Johannesburg as scheduled in August, the authorities of the state, which is party to the Rome Statute, will not be willing to fulfil their obligation to arrest him or may even leave the International Criminal Court.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, BRICS, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and South Africa

5. Growth Through Inclusion in South Africa

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Tim O'Brien, Andrés Fortunato, Alexia Lochmann, and Kishan Shah
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
It is painfully clear that South Africa is performing poorly, exacerbating problems such as inequality and exclusion. The economy’s ability to create jobs is slowing, worsening South Africa’s extreme levels of unemployment and inequality. South Africans are deeply disappointed with social progress and dislike the direction where the country seems to be heading. Despite its enviable productive capabilities, the national economy is losing international competitiveness. As the economy staggers, South Africa faces deteriorating social indicators and declining levels of public satisfaction with the status quo. After 15 years, attempts to stimulate the economy through fiscal policy and to address exclusion through social grants have failed to achieve their goals. Instead, they have sacrificed the country's investment grade, increasing the cost of capital to the whole economy, with little social progress to show for it. The underlying capabilities to achieve sustained growth by leveraging the full capability of its people, companies, assets, and knowhow remain underutilized. Three decades after the end of apartheid, the economy is defined by stagnation and exclusion, and current strategies are not achieving inclusion and empowerment in practice. This report asks the question of why. Why is the economy growing far slower than any reasonable comparator countries? Why is exclusion so extraordinarily high, even after decades of various policies that have aimed to support socio-economic transformation? What would it take for South Africa to include more of its people, capabilities, assets, and ideas in the functioning of the economy, and why aren’t such actions being undertaken already? The Growth Lab has completed a deep diagnostic of potential causes of South Africa’s prolonged underperformance over a two-year research project. Building on the findings of nine papers and widespread collaboration with government, academics, business and NGOs, this report documents the project’s central findings. Bluntly speaking, the report finds that South Africa is not accomplishing its goals of inclusion, empowerment and transformation, and new strategies and instruments will be needed to do so. We found two broad classes of problems that undermine inclusive growth in the Rainbow Nation: collapsing state capacity and spatial exclusion.
Topic:
Inequality, Economic Growth, Unemployment, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

6. Gold in Ghana: A Story of Unbalanced Exchange

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana and William Godfred Cantah
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
his paper presents the historical and institutional context of the development of the gold sector in Ghana, which sets the stage for examining the contribution of the sector to the economy and its exposure to capital flight. The analysis sheds light on the important role that the regulatory framework and the fiscal regime that govern the gold sector have played in perpetuating a system of unequal distribution of gains from gold exploitation in terms of tax revenue and foreign exchange earnings in favour of foreign gold companies. The statistical analysis of gold export statistics reveals substantial discrepancies between Ghana’s gold exports and the recorded value of imports by its trading partners. These differences point to export underinvoicing as a conduit of capital flight, while also exhibiting a systematic lack of transparency and inconsistencies vis-a-vis established international conventions governing the recording of trade transactions, especially in the case of gold destined for South Africa which does not show up in the latter’s import statistics. Overall, the analysis suggests that the gains from the gold sector remain much below potential, but that at the same time there may be room for reforms that can improve the benefits from gold exploitation for the country.
Topic:
Development, Regulation, Capital Flight, Exchange Rates, and Gold
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Ghana

7. Social Protection in the COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons from South Africa

Author:
Lena Gronbach, Jeremy Seekings, and Vayda Megannon
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
South Africa responded to the stresses of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown using a combination of existing social protection programmes, unemployment insurance, and additional measures to support those most affected. This paper reviews policies and implementation with the objective of highlighting lessons for the global community, including on the use of digital mechanisms. The government adopted a two-pronged and largely cash-based approach: unemployment benefits for formal sector workers and cash transfers to vulnerable individuals, informal workers, and beneficiaries of existing grants. Top-up payments for existing grants were rolled out efficiently; the new Special Relief of Distress (SRD) grant posed challenges but ultimately succeeded in reaching over six million previously uncovered beneficiaries. It may even become a permanent feature of South Africa’s social protection system. Overall, the government reached over 30 million South Africans with cash-based relief measures. A distinctive feature of cash-based emergency relief was the use of digital technologies, especially in the application and verification process for the new SRD grant. The payment system, however, relied heavily on manual cash disbursements, thus failing to reflect the adoption of innovative digital technologies observed in many other African countries.
Topic:
Security, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

8. ‘Delangokubona’ and the distribution of rents and opportunity

Author:
Ayabonga Cawe
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Capital spending on infrastructure presents a significant counter-cyclical tool, however contested it might be in a society as unequal as South Africa. The history of racial capitalism, racebased exclusion from economic participation, and an enduring political economy based on the concentration of capital, product, and service markets has given rise to a post-apartheid ‘politics of entry’ that mobilizes both formal and informal adaptations of redistributive policies aimed at ensuring redress of past injustices and access and participation by small and medium-sized enterprises owned by historically disadvantaged people. This is observed in stark form in the capital spending on economic and social infrastructure, which the South African government envisages as the ‘flywheel’ of the country’s economic reconstruction and recovery. Applying a combination of tools from new institutional economics, political sociology, and heterodox political economy frameworks, this paper considers the ‘informal’ and at times violent adaptation of policy, here defined as the ‘Delangokubona phenomenon’, which uses both formal mechanisms and the threat (perceived or real) of violent disruption to negotiate access to policy-sanctioned economic ‘rents’ under the auspices of ‘black economic empowerment’ in public infrastructure projects.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economy, Rent, Redistribution, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

9. Monetary policy in South Africa, 2007–21

Author:
Patrick Honohan and Athanasios Orphanides
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper reviews South Africa’s monetary policy since 2007 and makes recommendations towards improving the inflation-targeting framework currently in place. Following a surge in inflation into double digits in 2007/08, the South African Reserve Bank managed to guide inflation in line with the 3–6 per cent target band. Estimates of South Africa’s potential output underwent successive downward revisions. The resulting output gap misperceptions contributed to the tendency of inflation to be closer to the upper edge of the band in the 2010s. Our assessment is that the current definition of the target is not ambitious enough and reduces the benefits that inflation targeting could otherwise provide. An eventual point target of 3 per cent would better promote growth and protect the value of the currency, as mandated by the Republic’s Constitution.
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economy, History, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

10. The South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission and the Use of its Documentation: An Analysis

Author:
Proscovia Svard
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper investigates the extent to which the documentation that was generated by the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission (SATRC) is being used to promote the healing of a post-apartheid society. Truth and Reconciliation Commissions (TRCs) are considered a primary human rights tool for post-conflict reconciliation and reconstruction. They investigate gross violations of human rights and international humanitarian law, uncover the truth, and promote forgiveness. In this regard, TRCs use restorative justice which focuses on the rehabilitation of perpetrators through reconciliation with victims. They offer a platform for victims and perpetrators to share their experiences in an endeavor to repair the social fabric damaged by violent or structural conflict.1 TRCs are expected to help post-conflict societies transition from a past of human rights violations to a democratic and peaceful post-conflict society where human rights are respected. TRCs, through the documentation they produce, make it hard for the perpetrators to deny the truth
Topic:
Apartheid, Discrimination, Reconciliation, and Truth
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

11. How Inequality and Polarization Interact: America’s Challenges Through a South African Lens

Author:
Brian Levy
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Over the past decade, toxic interactions between persistent inequality, racial tensions, and political polarization have undercut the promise of South Africa’s so-called rainbow miracle transition from apartheid to democracy. South Africa’s recent history sheds light on the United States’ recent political travails. It illustrates how interactions between inclusion and inequality on the one hand and political ideas and entrepreneurship on the other can fuel positive spirals of hope, economic dynamism, and political legitimacy—but can also trigger vicious, downward spirals of disillusion, anger, and political polarization. South Africa was able to transition from a society structured around racial oppression into a nonracial democracy whose new government promised “a better life for all.” Especially remarkable was the speed with which one set of national ideas appeared to give way to its polar opposite. From a society marked by racial dominance and oppression, there emerged the aspiration to build an inclusive, cooperative social order, underpinned by the principles of equal dignity and shared citizenship. In the initial glow of transition, South Africa’s citizens could hope for a better life for themselves and their children. In time, though, the promise wore thin. It became increasingly evident that the economic deck would continue to be stacked, and that the possibility of upward mobility would remain quite limited. Fueled by massive continuing inequities in wealth, income, and opportunity, South Africans increasingly turned from hope to anger. In the United States, a steady and equitably growing economy and a vibrant civil rights movement had fostered the hope of social and economic inclusion. But that hope turned to anger as the benefits of growth became increasingly skewed from the 1980s onward. In 2019, the U.S. economy was more unequal than it had been since the 1920s. Younger generations could no longer expect that their lives would be better than those of their parents. Such economic adversity and associated status anxiety can trigger a heightened propensity for us-versus-them ways of engaging the world. In both South Africa and the United States, polarization was fueled by divisive political entrepreneurs, and in both countries, these entrepreneurs leveraged inequality in ways that added fuel to the fire. In the 2010s, South Africa went through a new ideational reckoning, in part to correct the view that the transition to democracy had washed the country’s apartheid history clean. But opportunistic political entrepreneurs also pushed an increasingly polarized and re-racialized political discourse and pressure on public institutions, with predictable economic consequences. South Africa’s economy slid into sustained stagnation. Paralleling South Africa, America’s divisive political entrepreneurs also cultivated an us-versus-them divisiveness. However, unlike in South Africa, political entrepreneurs and economic elites in the United States also used divisive rhetoric as a way to persuade voters to embrace inequality-increasing policies that might otherwise not have won support. By the late 2010s, the risks were palpable in both South Africa and the United States of an accelerating breakdown of the norms and institutions that sustain inclusive political settlements. For South Africa, the reversals were not wholly unexpected, given the country’s difficult inheritance—though a recent turn away from angry populism suggests that, paradoxically, the rawness and recency of the anti-apartheid struggle and triumph might perhaps offer some immunization against a further-accelerating a downward spiral. But for the United States, the converse may be true. Increases in inequality since the 1980s, and their attendant social and political consequences, have been largely self-inflicted wounds. Complacency bred of long stability may, for decades, have been lulling the country into political recklessness at the inequality-ethnicity intersection, a recklessness that risks plunging the country into disaster. But this paper’s analysis is not all gloom and doom. South Africa’s escape from the shackles of apartheid teaches that, even in the most unlikely settings, downward spirals of despair and anger can transmute into virtuous spirals of hope. The country’s first fifteen years of democracy also show that, once a commitment to change has taken hold, making the shift to an inclusion-supporting economy is less daunting than it might seem. Reforms that foster “good enough inclusion” can be enough to provide initial momentum, with the changes themselves unfolding over time—and an initial round of change can bring in its wake a variety of positive knock-on effects. But lessons can be overlearned. Mass political mobilization was pivotal to South Africa’s shaking loose the shackles of apartheid—and new calls to the barricades might seem to be the obvious response to current political and governmental dysfunction. However, different times and different challenges call for different responses. In both contemporary South Africa and contemporary America, the frontier challenge is not to overthrow an unjust political order but to renew preexisting formal commitments to the idea that citizenship implies some shared purpose. Renewal of this kind might best be realized not by confrontation but rather by a social movement centered around a vision of shared citizenship, a movement that views cooperation in pursuit of win-win possibilities not as weakness but as the key to the sustainability of thriving, open, and inclusive societies.
Topic:
Governance, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Polarization
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America

12. The effect of wage subsidies on job retention: Evidence from South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:
Timothy Köhler, Robert Hill, and Haroon Bhorat
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Wage subsidies have served as a primary labour market policy used around the world to mitigate job losses in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, where unemployment is among the highest globally, the Temporary Employer–Employee Relief Scheme supported millions of workers in a far-reaching and progressive manner. We make use of unique labour force panel data to estimate the causal effect of the policy on short-term job retention among formal private sector workers, who represent the majority of workers in the country, by exploiting a temporary institutional eligibility detail and estimating a difference-in-differences model. We find that the policy increased the probability of remaining employed by 16 percentage points in the short-term. This finding holds when subjected to several robustness tests. We further estimate heterogeneous and progressive effects across the wage distribution with larger effects observed for lower-wage workers, against a backdrop of regressively distributed job loss in the country. Our analysis provides evidence on the role of wage subsidies in the mitigation of job loss during crises in developing countries.
Topic:
Employment, Wage Subsidies, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Job Loss
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

13. Determinants of corporate cash holdings in South Africa

Author:
Ewa Karwowski, Hanna Szymborska, Keagile Lesame, and Tlhologelo Thoka
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Globally, corporate cash holdings have risen since the 1980s. In South Africa, some commentators have accused corporations of engaging in an ‘investment strike’, while others see corporate liquidity as a precaution against systemic uncertainty. We use the unique South African Revenue Service/National Treasury firm-level dataset to scrutinize corporate liquidity, using panel analysis. Relative to GDP, corporate cash and liquidity holdings have not increased between 2010 and 2017. However, corporate cash is high in international comparison and has grown at the firm level. We do not find evidence for the hypothesis that companies are engaging in an investment strike. Cash and liquidity are shaped by idiosyncratic and sectoral risk factors. In the short run, heightened uncertainty might reduce corporate cash and liquidity as firms struggle to adjust to an unexpected economic situation. In the medium run, we find a strong association between political uncertainty and corporate cash and liquidity holdings.
Topic:
Economics, Corporations, Liquidity, and Cash
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Global Focus

14. Inclusive COVID-19 Relief Finance

Author:
Amanda Lenhardt
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic has turned all countries’ attention to mitigating the impacts of the crisis, and with this attention has come a wave of finance to address the immediate health risks of the disease and the indirect effects on economies and on well-being. With this influx of spending on welfare and resilience, many have looked on with hope that this collective effort can be done in such a way that the world can ‘build back better.’ But, like any building project, the foundation is critical. This paper sets out to investigate whether countries are investing in the foundational social and economic structures that have led to the vulnerabilities currently upending people’s lives. Failure to address the structural inequalities embedded within societies and across the global political economic structure will ultimately leave the new structure vulnerable to collapse in the long term, and risks exposing marginalized groups to the harshest impacts of the crisis in the short term.
Topic:
Economy, Crisis Management, COVID-19, Marginalization, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
South Asia, East Asia, South Africa, and Latin America

15. Social Contracts: A Pathway for More Inclusive Societies

Author:
Erin McCandless
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
States and societies are in crisis around the world, as questions arise around the nature and quality of existing social contracts. COVID-19 has laid bare profound vulnerabilities within and across societies. The global pandemic is revealing deep failures in policy visions, institutional fragility, and incapacities of states to harness societal compliance where trust and a sense of national belonging is weak. At the same time, our interdependencies have never been so clear, as all countries, developed and underdeveloped alike, confront similar challenges. Crisis, however, offers opportunity to do things better, to build forward better – strengthening social contracts at all levels. How then, can social contracts, and compacting in times of crisis, offer pathways to address inequality and exclusion? This paper considers how social contracts can offer frameworks to foster new thinking and shape transformative policy to build more inclusive societies. Such frameworks should tie bold new policy visions to robust and resilient institutional arrangements that uproot harmful structural legacies with lasting effect for inclusive and peaceful societies. They must also offer means to address material conditions of inequality, and those related to recognition, identity, and dignity. The cases of South Africa, Tunisia, Colombia, and South Korea reveal that, while not easy nor predictable, such pathways exist. Key findings in this briefing include: Inequality and exclusion stem from policy choices and are fueled by corruption; they undermine foundations of inclusive and resilient national social contracts, e.g. trust in government and societal willingness to consent to difficult policy choices; Participation in formal electoral processes is declining while protest is rising, indicating a lack of faith in existing politics and institutional mechanisms for resolving conflict and fostering consensual politics; and Civil society movements in and across countries are advancing more inclusive social contracts that tackle vulnerability and risk through a variety of innovative means that deserve greater support.
Topic:
Peace, Justice, Social Contract, COVID-19, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Middle East, East Asia, South Africa, and Latin America

16. Zuma Goes to Jail: Implications for Rule of Law, Democracy, and Governance in South Africa

Author:
Peter SAKWE MASUMBE
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
There is a great silver lining in the quest for popular confidence in applying the rule of law, democracy, and governance processes in Africa’s politico-economic and socio-cultural landscapes, despite several setbacks occurring in several African countries today. In South Africa, the Constitutional Court recently found former president Zuma guilty of contempt of court and landed him a 15-month prison sentence, which is irrefutably a historic judgment in the annals of African politics. This judgment is loaded with several lawful and legitimate inferences for the continent’s democracies, rules of law, governances, and leadership. But can this judgment deter other African political leaders and apparent heavyweights in the governing processes from impunity? No matter the answer to this question, this judgment serves to remind Africans that human development in terms of applying democratic principles in the continent is gaining ground through the judiciary. Therefore, the African Union, with its Malabo’s Protocol and its envisaged creation of an African Court of Justice, reminiscence of the International Court of Justice, should re-examine itself, especially in the Protocol’s clause, which provides immunity to serving or former heads of state. This historical judgment pronounced by Acting Chief Justice Sisi Khampepe, signifies, in his words, “…A mission to share knowledge, rules of governance and democracy, in a lofty and lonely work of the judiciary, as an independent arm of government, impervious to public commentaries, and political rhetoric, to uphold and apply the Constitution and the law, no matter whose guts it is.” Ostensibly, in Africa, hardly has a court lower or higher, passed a safeguarding sentence, still less on a former president – civilian or military; whose governance was serenely investigated and found wanting. Necessarily, this judgment is unique, which an African court had to make, as deterrence to other African leaders.
Topic:
Civil Society, Democracy, Rule of Law, and Illegal Behavior
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

17. Crime, inequality and subsidized housing: evidence from South Africa

Author:
Roxana Elena Manea, Patrizio Piraino, and Martina Viarengo
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
We study the relationship between housing inequality and crime in South Africa. We create a novel panel dataset combining information on crimes at the police station level with census data. We find that housing inequality explains a significant share of the variation in both property and violent crimes, net of spillover effects, time and district fixed effects. An increase of one standard deviation in housing inequality explains between 9 and 13 percent of crime increases. Additionally, we suggest that a prominent post-apartheid housing program for low-income South Africans helped to reduce inequality and violent crimes. Together, these findings suggest the important role that equality in housing conditions can play in the reduction of crime in an emerging economy context.
Topic:
Crime, Development, Inequality, and Housing
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

18. South Africa: When Strong Institutions and Massive Inequalities Collide

Author:
Brian Levy, Alan Hirsch, Vinothan Naidoo, and Musa Nxele
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
South Africa's economic and social imbalances can no longer be swept under the rug. The country has three choices: muddle through, endure another surge of ethnopopulism, or pursue inclusive development. South Africa was one of the 1990s iconic cases of democratization. Yet starting in the mid-2000s, the country began to experience a disruptive collision between its strong political institutions and massive economic inequality. The collision intensified across the 2010s, resulting in economic stagnation and increasing threats to institutional integrity. Understanding why this collision occurred and worsened over time is relevant not just for other middle-income countries but also many higher-income democracies wrestling with similar tensions between a declining tolerance for high or rising inequality and institutions that seemed strong in the past but find their legitimacy increasingly being questioned. Ideally, ideas, institutions, and growth all reinforce one another in a virtuous developmental spiral. Ideas offer hope by encouraging cooperation and the pursuit of opportunities for win-win gains. Institutions assure that the bargains underpinning cooperation will be monitored and enforced. Together, ideas and institutions provide credible commitment, which fuels economic growth. However, such a benign scenario does not reckon with the ways in which persistent high inequality, accompanied by unresolved tensions between the distribution of economic and political power, can both put pressure on institutions and quickly change hope into anger. The result can be a cascading set of pressures and an accelerating downward spiral. For the first fifteen years of democracy, South Africa enjoyed the advantages of both effective institutions and a shared willingness of stakeholders believed in the power of cooperation. This enabled the country to move beyond counterproductive conflict and pursue win-win outcomes. Growth began to accelerate, which created new opportunities for expanding the middle class. Increased fiscal space made it possible to broaden access to public services and to social grants, which reduced absolute poverty. There were, however, some stark limitations in what was achieved. Gains for the poorest did little to alter their difficult economic and social realities. Less than a quarter of the total population, including essentially all white South Africans, enjoyed a standard of living that was middle class or better. There was ample reason for the majority of South Africans to feel that, notwithstanding the promises of mutual benefit, the deck remained stacked against them. This increased the vulnerability of South Africa’s political settlement.
Topic:
Development, Inequality, and Institutions
Political Geography:
South Africa and Africa

19. Non-Consensual Intimate Image Distribution: The Legal Landscape in Kenya, Chile and South Africa

Author:
Michelle Bordachar, Nonhlanhla Chanza, Kailee Hilt, Carlos Lara, Emma Monteiro, and Grace Mutung'u
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The non-consensual distribution of intimate images, colloquially referred to as “revenge pornography” or “image-based sexual abuse,” is an unforgiving reality that continues to plague the lives of many within the current digital landscape. It alludes to the non-consensual distribution of photos or videos depicting nudity, partial nudity or sexually explicit acts. This paper provides an overview of the state of the law, both existing and proposed, in three countries in the Global South — Kenya, Chile and South Africa — as it relates to the non-consensual distribution of intimate images. It was prepared under the overall coordination of CIGI’s Kailee Hilt and Emma Monteiro, who also wrote the introduction and conclusion. The three case studies were written by leading experts from Kenya, Chile and South Africa. The authors discuss current and proposed legislation in response to non-consensual intimate image distribution, while also sharing recommendations for further action to address this growing form of gender-based violence within the digital sphere. On June 24, 2021, CIGI held a panel discussion on this topic moderated by Ruhiya Seward, senior program officer at the International Development Research Centre. Grace Mutung’u, Michelle Bordachar and Nonhlanhla Chanza, experts who contributed the case studies in the paper, spoke about this issue as it pertains to Kenya, Chile and South Africa, respectively, and offered recommendations and road maps for further action within the existing landscape.
Topic:
Rule of Law, Sexual Violence, Judiciary, Digital Culture, and Digitization
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, South Africa, South America, and Chile

20. Post-workshop Briefing Paper: Preventing a COVID-19 Crisis in Africa

Author:
Atif Choudhury, Yawei Liu, and Ian Pilcher
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
In May 2020, the Carter Center’s China Program partnered with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) and the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) to organize a virtual workshop on Africa-U.S.-China cooperation on COVID-19 response. The workshop brought together a range of experts from the U.S, China, Ethiopia, Burundi, Kenya, and South Africa to discuss the public health impact and wider policy implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent. Emory University’s Global Health Institute and The Hunger Project also helped identify speakers and moderate panels.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, United States, China, Asia, South Africa, North America, Ethiopia, and Burundi

21. BRICS and Mortar: New Architecture in Education

Author:
Kishore Singh
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
In the beginning of the new century and the millennium, Brazil, the Russian Federation, India and China came to be reckoned as the world’s fastest growing economies. Later, these were joined by South Africa, leading to the emergence of BRICS as a political coalition of five countries. The year 2009 was a landmark in this historic development. In that year, the first BRICS Summit was held in Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation. The BRICS summits held annually since then have become an important political platform for the collective voice of BRICS countries in the form of BRICS Declarations. Education is one of the most critical areas addressed in successive BRICS summits. Centrality of education in people’s lives and its catalytic role for human development is widely recognised in today’s world. So it was inevitable that the BRICS countries would come together and create a common plat-forum on education as well. The first meeting of BRICS Education Ministers was held in November 2013 on the margins of the UNESCO General Conference. Since then, the BRICS Education Ministers have been meeting annually and issuing a separate declaration in tandem with the declaration issued at the summits.
Topic:
Development, Education, International Cooperation, and BRICS
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Asia, India, South Africa, and Brazil

22. Roots: A conceptual framework for the involvement of parents and families in advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in southern Africa

Author:
Wendy Kessman and Tahila Pimental
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Other Foundation
Abstract:
The role that families play in advocating for the human rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender and intersex (LGBTI) people in communities in southern Africa has not received as much attention as it deserves. Our new publication is called Roots, because of the powerful comments from some of the parents of LGBTI people that their LGBTI children are “from the same tree branch” as them, and because families enable LGBTI people to find an authentic “sense of belonging that is true to their roots.” The paper Roots: A conceptual framework for the involvement of parents and families in advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in southern Africa, reports on the experiences of LGBTI people and their families in Botswana, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. It highlights the role that the involvement of parents and families can play in the advocacy for LGBTI equality and freedom in our region including suggestions on ways to empower families to promote LGBTI acceptance in their homes, communities, and countries. For LGBTI people, the family can be the first place of rejection and damaging homophobia, transphobia and interphobia. Yet families can also be the best form of love and support that an LGBTI person can receive. Even initially hostile family members can grow to accept their LGBTI children, grandchildren and siblings. It may take time, emotional labour, vulnerability and courage for parents and family to accept their LGBTI child, however once parents and the family accept a LGBTI child, wanting the state to do the same is a natural next step.
Topic:
Discrimination, LGBT+, Family, Parenting, Homophobia, Transphobia, and Interphobia
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Mauritius, and Botswana

23. Gang Relationships in a Black Township in South Africa

Author:
Diana Gibson and Godfrey Maringira
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
This paper examines the ways in which young men involved in gang violence forge and sustain their relationships over time in Gugulethu, a township in Cape Town, South Africa. We argue that even though gang members employ violent techniques to sustain their relationships, such relationships are also alternative sources of social and emotional support especially in a context characterized by extreme poverty and fractured fam- ilies, as well as communities having to deal with great financial hardship. These relationships tend to extend beyond gangs to include community leaders and close family members. The paper draws from an ethnography of walking the township streets, being in them, observing and engaging in conversations with young men involved in gang violence. We used thematic analysis to achieve a detailed understanding of the data, using the voices of the participants on which this study is based to recognize, draw out and analyze the themes.
Topic:
Security, Youth, Violence, Gangs, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

24. The Just Transition in Energy

Author:
Ian Goldin
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
With each new year of data, and each new intergovernmental report, it becomes harder to deny the scale and urgency of the energy transition required to prevent catastrophic anthropogenic climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change urges countries to take action to prevent a rise in temperature by more than 1.5°C, and warns of catastrophic consequences of a rise above 2°C. Yet current policies and pledges fall far short of hitting these targets. Worse, since harmful climate change is caused by the stock of carbon in the atmosphere, the longer we delay measures to limit the flow of new carbon into the atmosphere, the more drastic those measures will have to be. This uneven distribution of threat and responsibility raises difficult questions. Developed countries are generally more advanced in their transition to renewables, which means that some of the cheapest opportunities to reduce emissions are in developing countries. Yet the fact remains that developed countries are responsible for a larger share of historic emissions—and developing countries may have a right to pursue development unhindered, as developed countries did in earlier decades. There are therefore several elements of the “just transition” in energy. The world needs to transition to cleaner energy, and the developing world needs to keep developing, all while supporting the countries and communities that bear the highest costs of mitigation measures—and supporting those areas already beginning to feel the negative effects of climate change. This report will outline the key challenges and opportunities and conclude with a series of practical steps available to policymakers.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, International Security, Crisis Management, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
China, Europe, South Asia, Middle East, India, East Asia, South Africa, Latin America, West Africa, United States of America, and Sub-Saharan Africa

25. Paulo Freire and Popular Struggle in South Africa

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The ideas of the radical Brazilian educationalist Paulo Freire had a profound impact on popular struggles in South Africa. Initially taken up by Steve Biko and others in the Black Consciousness movement in the early 1970s, Freire’s ideas spread to the trade union movement and to the community movements. Today, Freire’s ideas continue to be used in progressive organisations in South Africa and to guide the work of many people undertaking political education work.
Topic:
Education, Politics, Radicalization, Community, and Black Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

26. ‘The Politic of Blood’: Political Repression in South Africa

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In South Africa, grassroots activists talk of ‘the politic of blood’, referring to ongoing assassinations and other forms of repression. This dossier shows how grassroots activists and trade unionists have been subjected to ongoing repression by the state, beginning under apartheid and continuing under the rule of the African National Congress (ANC), much of which has never been fully acknowledged outside of activist circles.
Topic:
Repression, Political Participation, Activim, and Grassroots Organizing
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

27. Breaking the Cycle of Gender Exclusion in Political Party Development

Author:
Saskia Brechenmacher and Caroline Hubbard
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Political parties around the world face a crisis in public confidence. Many citizens view them as inaccessible and unresponsive to their concerns. Parties pose specific challenges for women, who face both formal and informal barriers to participation, including opaque nomination procedures, violence, and parties with hypermasculine cultures. The formation of new parties during periods of political transition represents a potential opportunity to break these patterns. Transitions can be openings to transform the broader political, legal, and social barriers to an inclusive kind of politics. In these moments of flux, the development of new party branches and rules, as well as the renegotiation of broader institutional frameworks, can enable women and other marginalized groups to push for greater political representation within party structures. What factors influence the level of gender inclusion in processes of party development? This question is central for policymakers, advocates, and practitioners seeking to support inclusive democracy and gender equality in transitional societies and beyond. To shed light on this topic, this study investigates gender inclusion in three types of party formation that commonly unfold during political transitions: a social movement to a party (as exemplified by Ennahda in Tunisia); an armed movement to a party (as illustrated by the African National Congress [ANC] in South Africa); and a dominant party to a breakaway party (as shown by the Mouvement du Peuple pour le Progrès [MPP] in Burkina Faso).
Topic:
Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, and Political Parties
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Burkina Faso

28. The political economy of competition, regulation and transformation: Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) and quota allocations in South African industrial fisheries

Author:
Thando Vilakazi and Stefano Ponte
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Business and Development Studies (CBDS), Copenhagen Business School
Abstract:
Power asymmetries in value chains mean that inequalities in returns, access to key resources and share of value added are reinforced and skewed against smaller players. Policies put in place to enforce market rules and ensure fairness can be ineffective in the context of entrenched market power, lack of competition, and high levels of control by lead firms over key resources and rights – necessitating different rules of the game to change the inequalities. Under these circumstances, transformation and economic participation of marginalized groups are unlikely to be achieved, with important socio-economic and political implications. South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies and competition laws target economic redress and inclusion of historically disadvantaged people in the ownership and control of economic activity and productive assets. BEE criteria have been embedded in a number of industry empowerment charters, a Broad-Based BEE Act and a series of codes of implementation. South Africa’s competition law is well-established and effectively implemented. Yet, the impacts of these instruments have been frustratingly limited and slow, especially in sectors where a few companies dominate. The paper draws on secondary sources and in-depth interviews with industry players in the South African Hake Deep Sea Trawl (HDST) fishery to examine the interactions between industrial fishery quota allocations by the government, BEE policy, and competition dynamics as they impact on allocation of finite access to national resource endowments. It shows that, even in one of the most regulated sectors of South Africa’s economy, large incumbents maintain a disproportionate amount of bargaining power vis-à-vis smaller players in HDST fishery, both upstream and downstream, and throughout the domestic and global value chains. We conclude that as long as rules protect incumbency, inequality will be sustained. Even where scale economies are at play, quota allocation, transformation and competition regulation should go hand in hand to facilitate the effective participation of black-owned businesses as competitors in the hake value chain.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Race, Economic Inequality, Economic Policy, Participation, Fishing, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
South Africa

29. Capital Flight from South Africa: A Case Study

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, Karmen Naidoo, and Adam Aboobaker
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper examines the mechanisms, actors, enablers, and the institutional environment that facilitate capital flight from South Africa and the resulting accumulation of private wealth in offshore financial centers. We estimate that from 1970 to 2017, South Africa lost over $300 billion through capital flight, including through overinvoicing of imports and underinvoicing of exports. Net trade misinvoicing amounted to $146 billion over the 1998-2017 period alone. Export underinvoicing appears to be especially rampant in the case of mineral resources such as gold, silver, platinum and diamonds. While capital flight is not a new phenomenon in South Africa, it has accelerated substantially over the past decades, a period marked by aggressive liberalization of the national economy and rapid integration into the global economy. Capital flight is a concern in a country such as South Africa that faces deep financing gaps, high multidimensional poverty, inequality and unemployment. An important challenge faced by South Africa in its quest to tackle capital flight and the associated problems such as tax evasion, base profit shifting, and money laundering is the threat of erosion of the public confidence in state institutions in light of the emerging phenomenon of state capture orchestrated by an intricate network of private ‘enablers’ with deep connections within the state and in the global economy. The adverse effects of capital flight on economic development, state institutions and governance call for urgent attention to prevent even more devastating consequences for the country’s political and social instability.
Topic:
Governance, Global Political Economy, Institutions, Capital Flight, Tax Evasion, Instability, and Money Laundering
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

30. Coordination and Cooperation of Water Management, Nature Conservation and Open Space Development in the Emscher Restoration

Author:
Jenny Tröltzsch, Nadine Gerner, Franziska Meergans, Ulf Stein, and Robynne Sutcliffe
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
South Africa’s water legislation is recognised for its ambitious adoption of Integrated Water Resource Management. However, implementation is hindered by conflicting hierarchical and network-based governance styles and lack of coordination between western administration and traditional authority.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Water, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

31. Myths about Human Trafficking in Africa

Author:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Human trafficking remains a significant problem in Africa, exploiting vulnerable individuals—children, women, and men—for forced labor as well as prostitution.
Topic:
United Nations, Labor Issues, Children, and Human Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, North Africa, West Africa, and East Africa

32. The Fate of Xolobeni Would Be the Fate Of Us All

Author:
Kevin Bloom
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Since 1996, activists in Xolobeni, a coastal region in South Africa, have been fighting a foreign mining conglomerate that learned that their ancestral lands happen to be rich in titanium. The anti-mining activists of Xolobeni, who have lost many comrades to hit squads, continue to struggle against this foreign company and its partners in the South African government. Given that their land is located in a global biodiversity hotspot, their struggle is the struggle of us all: it is the fight for water, soil, food, and air.
Topic:
Government, Water, Food, Foreign Interference, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

33. A Brief History of South Africa’s Industrial and Commercial Workers’ Union (1919-1931)

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The Industrial & Commercial Workers’ Union (ICU) – a trade union, rural peasant movement, and urban squatters’ movement – formed on the docks in Cape Town in 1919. Within a decade, the ICU had expanded across Southern Africa without regard for national borders and counted people from various African countries and the Caribbean in its leadership, as well as people who were Indian and mixed race. The largely forgotten history of the ICU is well worth recovering in a time of escalating chauvinism and xenophobia. Our Dossier #20 offers an introduction to this extraordinary popular movement.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Trade Unions, and Labor Unions
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

34. Nuclear Enrichment: Russia’s Ill-Fated Influence Campaign in South Africa

Author:
Andrew Weiss and Eugene Rumer
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Amid the widespread attention the Kremlin’s recent inroads in Africa have attracted, there has been surprisingly little discussion of South Africa, a country which, for nearly a decade, unquestionably represented Russia’s biggest foreign policy success story on the continent. As relations soared during the ill-starred presidency of Jacob Zuma (2009–2018), the Kremlin sought to wrest a geopolitically significant state out of the West’s orbit and to create a partnership that could serve as a springboard for expanded influence elsewhere in Africa. Moscow’s strategy was multifaceted, capitalizing on well-established close ties with Zuma, a former African National Congress senior intelligence official with extensive Soviet bloc connections. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior officials pursued a series of initiatives, such as the inclusion of South Africa in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) grouping and the launch of ambitious forms of cooperation between state-backed energy interests primarily in the nuclear sector. Yet relations were undermined by the Kremlin’s propensity to overreach, to lean too heavily on the legacy of Cold War–era relationships forged with leaders of national liberation movements, and to take advantage of cultures of corruption. The controversy arising from a massive $76 billion nuclear power plant construction deal triggered strong pushback and legal challenges from South Africa’s institutional checks and balances, civil society groups, and independent media. Key parts of the Russian national security establishment view civil nuclear power exports as an important tool for projecting influence overseas while creating revenue streams for sustaining intellectual and technical capabilities and vital programs inside Russia itself. Yet such cooperation is often a two-edged sword. On the one hand, costly projects such as the one pushed by Zuma typically make little economic sense for the purchasing country, spurring uncomfortable questions about who stands to benefit. On the other hand, heavily subsidized projects pursued mainly for geopolitical reasons risk saddling Russia’s nuclear power monopoly Rosatom with burdens it can ill afford. Ongoing investigations of high-level corruption during the period of so-called state capture under Zuma shed remarkable light on how the Kremlin operates in Africa and other parts of the world. In retrospect, the sustainability of Moscow’s embrace of South Africa was highly questionable due to its paltry tool kit. Russian involvement in the South African economy is miniscule compared to that of other trading partners such as the EU, China, the United States, India, and the UK, accounting for a mere 0.4 percent of South Africa’s foreign trade. While the Soviet Union was an important patron during the anti-apartheid struggle, modern-day Russia offers little in the way of practical assistance for helping South Africa deal with its deep-set economic and societal challenges.
Topic:
Energy Policy, National Security, Geopolitics, and Nuclear Waste
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, and South Africa

35. Get Real: A discussion paper about whether a compliance-based approach to LGBTI economic empowerment can work in South Africa

Author:
Tracy-Lynn Humby
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Other Foundation
Abstract:
In 1996, South Africa made human rights history by being the first country in the world to prohibit unfair discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation in its constitution. But 25 years after this resounding document was passed by the Constitutional Assembly, the lived realities of most LGBTI South Africans lag well behind the constitution’s ringing promises.
Topic:
Human Rights, Employment, Discrimination, LGBT+, and Compliance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa