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2. How Inequality and Polarization Interact: America’s Challenges Through a South African Lens
- Author:
- Brian Levy
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, toxic interactions between persistent inequality, racial tensions, and political polarization have undercut the promise of South Africa’s so-called rainbow miracle transition from apartheid to democracy. South Africa’s recent history sheds light on the United States’ recent political travails. It illustrates how interactions between inclusion and inequality on the one hand and political ideas and entrepreneurship on the other can fuel positive spirals of hope, economic dynamism, and political legitimacy—but can also trigger vicious, downward spirals of disillusion, anger, and political polarization. South Africa was able to transition from a society structured around racial oppression into a nonracial democracy whose new government promised “a better life for all.” Especially remarkable was the speed with which one set of national ideas appeared to give way to its polar opposite. From a society marked by racial dominance and oppression, there emerged the aspiration to build an inclusive, cooperative social order, underpinned by the principles of equal dignity and shared citizenship. In the initial glow of transition, South Africa’s citizens could hope for a better life for themselves and their children. In time, though, the promise wore thin. It became increasingly evident that the economic deck would continue to be stacked, and that the possibility of upward mobility would remain quite limited. Fueled by massive continuing inequities in wealth, income, and opportunity, South Africans increasingly turned from hope to anger. In the United States, a steady and equitably growing economy and a vibrant civil rights movement had fostered the hope of social and economic inclusion. But that hope turned to anger as the benefits of growth became increasingly skewed from the 1980s onward. In 2019, the U.S. economy was more unequal than it had been since the 1920s. Younger generations could no longer expect that their lives would be better than those of their parents. Such economic adversity and associated status anxiety can trigger a heightened propensity for us-versus-them ways of engaging the world. In both South Africa and the United States, polarization was fueled by divisive political entrepreneurs, and in both countries, these entrepreneurs leveraged inequality in ways that added fuel to the fire. In the 2010s, South Africa went through a new ideational reckoning, in part to correct the view that the transition to democracy had washed the country’s apartheid history clean. But opportunistic political entrepreneurs also pushed an increasingly polarized and re-racialized political discourse and pressure on public institutions, with predictable economic consequences. South Africa’s economy slid into sustained stagnation. Paralleling South Africa, America’s divisive political entrepreneurs also cultivated an us-versus-them divisiveness. However, unlike in South Africa, political entrepreneurs and economic elites in the United States also used divisive rhetoric as a way to persuade voters to embrace inequality-increasing policies that might otherwise not have won support. By the late 2010s, the risks were palpable in both South Africa and the United States of an accelerating breakdown of the norms and institutions that sustain inclusive political settlements. For South Africa, the reversals were not wholly unexpected, given the country’s difficult inheritance—though a recent turn away from angry populism suggests that, paradoxically, the rawness and recency of the anti-apartheid struggle and triumph might perhaps offer some immunization against a further-accelerating a downward spiral. But for the United States, the converse may be true. Increases in inequality since the 1980s, and their attendant social and political consequences, have been largely self-inflicted wounds. Complacency bred of long stability may, for decades, have been lulling the country into political recklessness at the inequality-ethnicity intersection, a recklessness that risks plunging the country into disaster. But this paper’s analysis is not all gloom and doom. South Africa’s escape from the shackles of apartheid teaches that, even in the most unlikely settings, downward spirals of despair and anger can transmute into virtuous spirals of hope. The country’s first fifteen years of democracy also show that, once a commitment to change has taken hold, making the shift to an inclusion-supporting economy is less daunting than it might seem. Reforms that foster “good enough inclusion” can be enough to provide initial momentum, with the changes themselves unfolding over time—and an initial round of change can bring in its wake a variety of positive knock-on effects. But lessons can be overlearned. Mass political mobilization was pivotal to South Africa’s shaking loose the shackles of apartheid—and new calls to the barricades might seem to be the obvious response to current political and governmental dysfunction. However, different times and different challenges call for different responses. In both contemporary South Africa and contemporary America, the frontier challenge is not to overthrow an unjust political order but to renew preexisting formal commitments to the idea that citizenship implies some shared purpose. Renewal of this kind might best be realized not by confrontation but rather by a social movement centered around a vision of shared citizenship, a movement that views cooperation in pursuit of win-win possibilities not as weakness but as the key to the sustainability of thriving, open, and inclusive societies.
- Topic:
- Governance, Democracy, Inequality, Institutions, and Polarization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, North America, and United States of America
3. Central Bank Digital Currency and Governance: Fit for Purpose?
- Author:
- Pierre Siklos
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- As digital forms of payment become increasingly popular, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, cash is no longer king. Central banks are turning their attention toward central bank digital currency (CBDC) to replace coins and bills and to provide other types of services through digital technology. CBDC can also facilitate cross-border transactions through the use of internationally accepted currencies such as the euro and the US dollar. This paper explores the many tailwinds and headwinds that will affect the implementation of a CBDC.
- Topic:
- Governance, Digital Economy, Banks, and Digital Currency
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
4. “Baby Won't You Please Come Home:” Studying Ethnoracial Segregation Trends in New Orleans Pre and Post Hurricane Katrina
- Author:
- Nathan Babb
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
- Abstract:
- This paper explores the ethnoracial segregation trends of New Orleans, Louisiana between the years 2000, 2010, and 2018. It studies the effect of Hurricane Katrina—which struck in August 2005—on population figures and racial composition within two geographic units of study in Orleans parish: neighborhoods and census tract block groups. Since Hurricane Katrina, White residents have returned in larger numbers than Black residents, and particularly so in neighborhoods that were predominantly Black before the storm. In 2019, New Orleans had 100,000 fewer people than before the storm—nearly the same as the number of Black residents who have not returned. Using a Gibbs-Martin index, which measures racial diversity, the paper finds that decreases in population at the census block group level are associated with racial “diversifying.” This trend invites a conversation on the normative interpretations of racial heterogenization, its causes, and its consequences: who bears the costs of increased “diversity” and what is the historical backdrop it operates under?
- Topic:
- Race, Natural Disasters, Governance, Inequality, Domestic Policy, Disaster Management, and Segregation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
5. Operation Condor, The War on Drugs, and Counterinsurgency in the Golden Triangle (1977-1983)
- Author:
- Adela Cedillo
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- In the late 1960s, the Mexican government launched a series of counternarcotics campaigns characterized by the militarization of drug production zones, particularly in the northwestern region—the so-called Golden Triangle, epicenter of both production and trafficking of marijuana and opium poppy since the 1930s. Operations Canador (1969–1975) and Trizo (1976) served as a laboratory for methods to curb drug production, ranging from harassment of drug growers to the aerial defoliation of illicit crops. Operation Condor (1977–1988) combined and enhanced these strategies, wreaking havoc on communities of alleged drug growers, but without entirely disrupting the drug industry. This paper explores the role of the US government in the militarization of Mexico’s anti-drug policy, underscoring how the ruling party (the Institutional Revolutionary Party, PRI) took advantage of this shift to tackle domestic issues and reassert its hegemony. I argue that Operation Condor functioned as a counterinsurgency campaign oriented to thwart both social and armed movements, eliminate competitors in the narcotics market, and reorganize the drug industry to protect successful drug lords. Operation Condor also caused the decentralization of the drug industry from the northwest and created a new clientelistic pact between drug lords and national security agencies, such as the Federal Security Directorate (DFS), the Office of the Attorney General of Mexico–Federal Judicial Police (PGR-PJF), and the Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA), which benefited from drug proceeds. Finally, the de facto state of siege imposed in the Golden Triangle produced thousands of victims of harassment, torture, rape, murder, forced-disappearance, and displacement; massive human rights abuses that authorities either concealed or denied.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Human Rights, Governance, Social Movement, History, Borders, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Latin America, North America, Mexico, and United States of America
6. Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence and Fiscal Multipliers
- Author:
- Wolfgang Lechthaler and Mewael F. Tesfaselassie
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- We analyze the effects of government spending in a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions featuring endogenous growth through learning-by-doing and skill loss from longterm unemployment. We show that medium-run and long-run output and unemployment multipliers are much larger compared to the standard model that abstracts from endogenous growth and skill loss. In our model the aggregate effect of a temporary fiscal stimulus is amplified via the skill loss channel through lower training costs. Via the learning-by-doing channel, it leads to hysteresis in human capital accumulation and thereby output. These results hold for alternative forms of fiscal financing (lump-sumtax, distortionary tax and government debt) as well as alternative labor market institutions (US and Europe).
- Topic:
- Governance, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
7. Building Back Better: A National Jobs Strategy
- Author:
- Mary Alive McCarthy, Carl Van Horn, and Michael Prebil
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- The United States has a jobs problem. When the COVID-19 pandemic plunged the economy back into recession in early 2020, it laid bare a fragile and profoundly inequitable labor market. In the absence of a robust and coordinated recovery strategy focused on increasing the supply of good jobs, the same labor market pathologies that plagued the last recovery will re-emerge: the long-term unemployed will struggle to land jobs and many will give up; private sector job growth will be slow and uneven; many new jobs will be worse than those they replace; unemployment among Black and Latinx workers will remain elevated; and income and wealth gaps will widen. This recovery must be different. The Biden-Harris administration has an historic opportunity to lay the foundation for an economy built on good jobs, one that ensures the benefits of economic growth are broadly and fairly shared This publication provides a set of concrete recommendations to help guide an all-of-government jobs strategy, including three goals to guide a national jobs agenda, a suite of distinct but reinforcing strategies to achieve them, and a framework for coordinating activities across government.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Infrastructure, Governance, Job Creation, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
8. The Biden Foreign Policy Team
- Author:
- Bob Silverman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A guide to the Biden Administration’s first moves and initial set of senior officials. It is no wonder that popular disenchantment with US elites sometimes bubbles to the surface in unexpected ways.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America
9. srael and the Palestinian Issue in the Biden Era
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The next Israeli government would be well-advised to come-up with its own proposals for improving the life of Palestinians, both to further improve its own regional standing and to meet (some of the) administration’s expectations, in dialogue and partnership.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Governance, Leadership, Humanitarian Intervention, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
10. Regional Financial Arrangements and the International Monetary Fund: Sustaining Coherence in Global Financial Governance
- Author:
- C. Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Cooperation and competition among regional financial arrangements (RFAs) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increasingly determine the effectiveness of the global financial safety net (GFSN), which many observers fear is becoming fragmented. Overlap among these crisis-fighting institutions has important benefits but also pitfalls, including with respect to competition, moral hazard, independence, institutional conflict, creditor seniority and non-transparency. The study reviews the RFAs in Latin America, East Asia and Europe to assess their relationships with the IMF and address these problems. Among other things, it concludes: institutional competition, while harmful in program conditionality, can be beneficial in economic analysis and surveillance; moral hazard depends critically on institutional governance and varies substantially from one regional arrangement to the next; secretariats should be independent in economic analysis, but lending programs should be decided by bodies with political responsibility; and conflicts among institutions are often resolved by key member states through informal mechanisms that should be protected and developed. Findings of other recent studies on the GFSN are critiqued. Architects of financial governance should maintain the IMF at the centre of the safety net but also develop regional arrangements as insurance against the possibility that any one institution could be immobilized in a crisis, thereby safeguarding both coherence and resilience of the institutional complex.
- Topic:
- Governance, Surveillance, Strategic Competition, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America, Australia, North America, and Global Focus
11. An Effect-Centric Approach to Assessing the Risks of Cyber Attacks Against the Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems at Nuclear Power Plants
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher, Charles Harry, and Jor-Shan Choi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- Cyberattacks against the digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are of grave security concern. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires all NPPs to protect critical digital assets that support safety, security, and emergency preparedness functions against cyberattacks.1 Other standards bodies like the International Society of Automation (ISA) and the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) have also developed standards that address cybersecurity for industrial control systems (ICS) including DI&C.2 Due to concerns for security, relevant stakeholders such as regulators, plant operators, information technology (IT) and operation technology (OT) staff, and equipment suppliers are sometimes reluctant to reveal in technical detail about vulnerabilities posed by DI&C systems. Yet, because some types of cyberattacks against an NPP may cause core damage or significant release of radioactivity, harming the plant, the public and the industry, the safety implications of potential cyberattacks should be evaluated. This divide between security and safety is a challenge for stakeholders focused in cyber security for NPPs. To bridge this security and safety divide, this study proposes and demonstrates a methodology for assessing and addressing the safety consequences of cyber events that disrupt one or more parts of the DI&C systems at NPPs. The methodology builds on the “effect-centric” cyber risk assessment framework developed by the Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM). It is used to analyze two historical cyberattacks and one hypothetical attack scenario. As the focus is on plant safety, these assessment, evaluation, and analysis can be candidly and openly discussed with the goal of finding the best defense to thwart the specific cyberattack.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Nuclear Power, Cybersecurity, and Regulation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
12. Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2014: An Update
- Author:
- Steven E. Finkel, Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Michael Neureiter, and Chris A. Belasco
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kellogg Institute for International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper updates our earlier work on the impact of US foreign assistance on democratic outcomes in recipient countries using newly available USAID Foreign Aid Explorer data covering the 2001–2014 period, as well as new outcome measures derived from Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data. Building on the theoretical and empirical framework established in our previous study and in subsequent work in the field, we estimate: a) the effect of overall USAID Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (DRG) expenditures on general indices of democracy, b) changes in the effects of DRG expenditures after 2001, and c) the conditions that moderate the impact of DRG funding at the country level in the contemporary era. We find that the effect of DRG expenditures decreased dramatically in the 2002–2014 period, relative to the modest effect shown in the previous study for the period immediately following the end of the Cold War. However, DRG aid remains effective in the current era under favorable conditions. Further analysis demonstrates important conditional effects related to patterns of DRG investment, such that aid has greater impact when levels of security assistance are low (indicating competing priorities) and when prior DRG investment is low (indicating diminishing returns). In addition, DRG is more effective at intermediate levels of democratization and less so in contexts of democratic backsliding.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Globalization, Governance, Democracy, and Public Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
13. China versus the US in the Pandemic Crisis: The State-People Nexus Confronting Systemic Challenges
- Author:
- Dic Lo and Yuning Shi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
- Abstract:
- The control of the COVID-19 crisis requires strong and rapid actions of each nation- state, but multiple facets of the ineffectiveness have been exposed so far. This paper seeks to characterise and assess the handling of the public health emergency in China and the United States. The exposition focuses on the governance structures and state-people dynamics of the two countries, drawing on the framework of “exit, voice, and loyalty” developed by Albert Hirschman. The paper concludes that the Chinese “tough model” appears to have facilitated a virtuous circle of the state- people interaction, whereas the US “loose model” has led to a vicious circle.
- Topic:
- Governance, Hegemony, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America
14. From the Global to the Local: Leveraging International Engagement to Advance Justice at Home
- Author:
- Maha Jweied
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- This policy paper is authored by Maha Jweied, who served in the U.S. government between 2006-2018, most recently as the Acting Director of the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office for Access to Justice. Maha is currently a fellow at CIC-NYU and advisor to the Pathfinders for Justice. This paper sets out how the former U.S. Department of Justice’s Office for Access to Justice leveraged international activity and mechanisms, including the UN’s 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, to advance its domestic priorities. The strategy resulted in notable accomplishments and even protected a number of them after the office was closed in 2018. The brief also recommends that the incoming Biden-Harris Administration reestablish the Office for Access to Justice, revitalize the White House Legal Aid Interagency Roundtable charged with implementing Goal 16 for the United States, link U.S. domestic priorities to all 17 Sustainable Development Goals, and prioritize the United States’ role as a leader in the global movement for equal justice for all.
- Topic:
- Government, Governance, Inequality, and Justice
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
15. A Procurement Path to Equity
- Author:
- Center for Urban Innovation
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Local governments are big buyers. Here in the U.S., our state and city governments collectively spend 1.6 trillion dollars per year. But for too long, how and with whom our local governments spend their money has reinforced economic inequities in our country. Minority-owned small businesses have been historically locked out of opportunities to contract with governments, and the current crisis has disproportionately impacted these very enterprises.
- Topic:
- Governance, Inequality, Business, Local, Equality, and Equity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
16. Why Israelis Like Trump
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- From his rejection of Obama-era political correctness to his family make-up, Trump has charmed Israelis.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
17. Douglas MacGregor is a friend
- Author:
- Gershon Hacohen and Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Antisemitism accusations against Dr Douglas MacGregor are deeply upsetting.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Anti-Semitism, and Political Culture
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
18. Syria in the US and Israeli debate on Iran
- Author:
- Shira Efron
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- With presidential elections in the United States underway in November 2020[1], the only possible scenarios for Washington in the Middle East are either continuation and solidification, or a change in its Iran policy, each with different potential impacts on the geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel, and allied Arab countries on one side and Iran and its regional Axis-of-Resistance on the other. Analysing current convergences and divergences between the United States and Israel on Syria and Iran is important to anticipate potential changes in both countries’ positions following the US election, as such changes may impact the effectiveness and even the prospect of the continuation of the United States’ so-called ‘Maximum Pressure’ campaign. The policies of the two countries on Syria and Iran became varyingly intertwined as Iran entrenched itself deeply in Syria. Nonetheless, it is important to note that Israel and the United States differ in their approaches to tackling Syria. This contribution attempts to assess the US campaign against Iran, the cost it is likely to have inflicted upon it in Syria, and the outlook of an agreement with Iran. Although we are considering US policy on Iran, the analysis here also includes the Israeli perspective. Private conversations with Israeli current and former officials have provided important insights into how Israeli officials see US policy in Syria and vis-à-vis Iran, and can add a unique contribution to the dialogue. In this analysis, we sought to address several issues. First, whether there are any incentives for Iran to concede to US demands or reach a meaningful bargain, and whether under a Biden or Trump administration a new Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) could be renegotiated to include Iranian expansion in the region. We also examined the form and incentives structure that could entice Iran to offer a constructive contribution to the stability of Syria and the region. In addition, we assessed to what extent the Maximum Pressure campaign affects Iran, and whether targeting Syria with sanctions would incentivise both the Syrian government and the Syrian locals (who are working with Iran as fighters) to break with Iran. Finally, assuming that Iran is in Syria to protect its own interests, we question whether more threats to Tehran would lead to reduced presence in Syria.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
19. Principled Governance of Shale Resources
- Author:
- Aspen Institute
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- Across the US there are a wide variety of opportunities to produce oil and natural gas. These opportunities have been greatly enhanced in recent years with the advent of directional drilling technology combined with hydraulic fracturing completion techniques, which have expanded the economically recoverable oil and natural gas reserves from shale resources. At the same time, the development and production of shale resources have posed real challenges and potential risks to public health and the environment. Considering both the benefits and the potential risks, every state must decide whether new oil and natural gas production should occur.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Science and Technology, Natural Resources, Governance, Gas, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
20. Testing the Validity of the Single Interrupted Time Series Design
- Author:
- Katherine Baicker and Theodore Svoronos
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Given the complex relationships between patients’ demographics, underlying health needs, and outcomes, establishing the causal effects of health policy and delivery interventions on health outcomes is often empirically challenging. The single interrupted time series (SITS) design has become a popular evaluation method in contexts where a randomized controlled trial is not feasible. In this paper, we formalize the structure and assumptions underlying the single ITS design and show that it is significantly more vulnerable to confounding than is often acknowledged and, as a result, can produce misleading results. We illustrate this empirically using the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment, showing that an evaluation using a single interrupted time series design instead of the randomized controlled trial would have produced large and statistically significant results of the wrong sign. We discuss the pitfalls of the SITS design, and suggest circumstances in which it is and is not likely to be reliable.
- Topic:
- Health, Governance, and Health Care Policy
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
21. Driving Growth and Innovation in the Food Industry: Lessons from the Automobile Industry’s CAFE Standards
- Author:
- Hank Cardello
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hudson Institute
- Abstract:
- Poor dietary patterns are the leading cause of noncommunicable disease in the U.S., and they are creating a significant burden on the economy and on quality of life. Diet-related disease is having a large impact on health outcomes among children and adults, leading to increasing healthcare costs, which has led to a focus on regulatory measures to curb the rising tide. Regulation has largely focused on the U.S. food system, as it provides low-cost, calorie-dense foods, which have been linked to a substantial increase in calories in the food supply and excessive calorie consumption. Substandard eating habits are linked to a number of health conditions, such as diabetes and obesity. Diabetes rates in the U.S. have more than tripled since 1970, and nearly 40 percent of adults are categorized as having obesity. The cost to the healthcare system is significant, and a myriad of health issues are linked to its pervasive spread in the country. Particularly concerning are increasing obesity rates among children, amidst continued public health interventions at the local, state, and national levels. Public health officials continue to advocate for additional regulation to shift dietary patterns. Policy efforts have ranged from voluntary commitments by the food industry to government-driven regulations such as taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and package-labeling provisions. Most of the government regulatory approaches to date have been piecemeal, typically led by local government bodies and focusing on a specific type of food or beverage for taxation, or tending to address a particular component, such as food package labeling. For example, Berkeley, CA passed a sugar-sweetened beverage tax in 2014, and the FDA has mandated changes to food labels to increase transparency about calories and added sugars. This paper seeks to open the discussion on a broader policy approach to reduce excessive consumption of calories, sugars, saturated fats, and sodium, which are linked to conditions such as diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular disease, and certain cancers. It will do this by exploring Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, an automobile industry “cap and trade” regulatory model.
- Topic:
- Economics, Food, Governance, Culture, Regulation, Economic Growth, Innovation, Public Health, Society, and Obesity
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
22. China in Latin America: Major Impacts and Avenues for Constructive Engagement
- Author:
- Margaret Myers and Rebecca Ray
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Carter Center
- Abstract:
- Over the past two years, U.S. officials have sought to highlight China’s negative effects on the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region’s development and stability, whether to U.S. or Latin American audiences. As U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said during a trip to Mexico City in October 2018, "China has invested in ways that have left other countries worse off." Pompeo and other U.S. officials have also taken this message elsewhere in the region, cautioning against the effects of Chinese engagement on LAC governance, security, regulatory capacity, and financial stability, and in a rage of other areas. For Latin Americans, though, relations with China aren’t so black and white. China may be an imperfect partner for LAC, as many in the region will attest, but it is an increasingly important one. After nearly two decades of enhanced Chinese economic engagement with the region, LAC governments and economic sectors rely heavily on China’s economic partnership and inputs. China is LAC’s second most important trading partner, second most important source of mergers and acquisitions foreign direct investment, and top source of development finance. For South America, China’s importance is even more pronounced: It became the top export destination for South American goods in 2010. China’s effects on regional development are also mixed, as we demonstrate below. China’s contributions to the region’s economic growth are well-documented, but Chinese demand for raw materials has also accentuated regional dependence on these commodities, in a process of “re- primarization” in South American economies, with troubling implications for the region’s long-term development prospects. Chinese investments have transformed the energy sectors in some countries, but the environmental effects of hydroelectric and other projects will be long-lasting in certain cases. To achieve a wide range of development objectives—economic, environmental, and social—LAC must depend on increasingly well-planned and coordinated engagement from all of its major economic partners and donor nations, including China. This is especially true in times of growing uncertainty, as the region grapples with humanitarian and migration crises, growing populist tendencies, relentless corruption, and climate change, among other factors.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Imperialism, International Cooperation, Governance, and Regulation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Asia, Latin America, and North America
23. The Greatest Necessity: National Cohesion
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel’s government must nurture a spirit of unity and national purpose by building a policy consensus as broad as possible. This is necessary both in preparation for likely combat operations against Iran and its proxies, and in order to respond wisely to the American peace plan and to intelligently manage conflict with the Palestinians.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
24. Self-Determination and U.S. Choices
- Author:
- Will Todman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The United States government can neither engender new states nor prevent them from coming into being, but it does possess a range of policy tools to influence the trajectory of new or aspiring states. While U.S. history creates a certain amount of empathy for self-determination groups, as a general rule the U.S. government views most independence movements skeptically. This is appropriate, in part because few such movements are viable. Economies are small or fragile (or both), the cause enjoys limited internal support, or the forces arrayed against it are too massive. In addition, the United States is tied diplomatically to some 190 countries around the world, and it usually privileges intergovernmental ties over those with non-governmental groups. Supporting secession not only would threaten U.S. relations with countries fighting U.S.-backed movements, but also other countries that feared that the United States might come to support secessionists elsewhere. For the United States, some sort of decentralization or autonomy arrangement is often a less costly option. It is also more agreeable to partner governments and reduces the risk of regional instability. However, exceptions can occur when secessionist movements take root in countries where the United States has more difficult relations, or where repression of minority groups or some other humanitarian factor weighs heavily on the scale.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Non State Actors, Governance, Self Determination, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
25. Settling Kurdish Self-Determination in Northeast Syria
- Author:
- Will Todman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- When President Trump declared on December 19 that U.S. troops in Syria were “all coming back and coming back now,” it plunged the future of the East of the country into uncertainty.1 Dynamics in Syria were already shifting against the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration (AA) in Northeast Syria, as threats from Turkey and the regime increased. The impending withdrawal of U.S. forces eliminates the AA’s main source of leverage over the Assad regime and increases its vulnerability to the Turkish invasion President Erdogan has threatened. Scrambling to avoid conflict, AA officials have turned to Russia to mediate a political deal with President Assad, hoping to restore regime control to Syria’s eastern borders in exchange for self-administration.2 However, the lack of clarity over the timeline of the withdrawal means the United States maintains important influence in eastern Syria.3 Shaping the outcome of the Kurdish question at this critical juncture and preventing a new conflict in Northeast Syria are among the few remaining positive steps it can take in Syria. Although the Kurdish issue seems tangential to U.S. interests, the United States should invest in its diplomatic and military tools to facilitate a limited autonomy settlement in Northeast Syria when the area is formally reintegrated into Assad’s territory. To do so, the United States should work to discourage potential spoilers to such a deal and then forge an international coalition to act as guarantors to the agreement. Failing to secure an autonomy settlement could sow the seeds of long-lasting instability in Northeast Syria. The experience of autonomy has fanned the flames of Kurdish self-determination, and although the position of Syrian Kurds is now precarious, they are nonetheless stronger and more united than they ever have been. Throughout the conflict, they have won freedoms which Damascus long denied them and built a formidable army: the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reportedly numbers over 60,000 troops.4 Such self-determination movements do not flare out so easily. A new CSIS edited volume, Independence Movements and Their Aftermath: Self-Determination and the Struggle for Success,” shows that from Bangladesh to East Timor, governments’ attempts to curb a minority’s rights have often accelerated their push for independence.5 A U.S. abandonment of Syrian Kurds without facilitating a negotiated settlement could therefore ignite another bloody, long-term struggle for self-determination in the Middle East, with wide-reaching regional implications.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Governance, Self Determination, Settlements, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, North America, Kurdistan, and United States of America
26. Elections, Crisis, and What to Expect in the Year Ahead
- Author:
- Sarah Baumunk, Richard Miles, Linnea Sandin, Mark Schneider, and Mia Kazman
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- 2019 will be another pivotal year across the map in the Western Hemisphere. The region continues to battle several ongoing challenges: the Venezuelan crisis, the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship under new Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the rapid deterioration of Nicaragua, the fight for transparency in the Northern Triangle, and an uncertain economic horizon. Seven countries will hold national elections—Argentina, Bolivia, Canada, El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, and Uruguay—each of which has the potential to affect domestic politics as well as geopolitical relations within the region.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Governance, Elections, Leadership, and Election watch
- Political Geography:
- South America and North America
27. How Innovative Is Mexico?
- Author:
- Richard Miles
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- On October 23, 2018, with the sponsorship of Rassini, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in partnership with the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (COMEXI), hosted a conference in Mexico City on innovation. CSIS invited experts and senior government officials from Mexico and the United States to discuss the state of innovation in Mexico, how to increase it, and what the new Mexican government should do to promote it.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Innovation, and Emerging Technology
- Political Geography:
- North America and Mexico
28. Preventing Catastrophe in Afghanistan
- Author:
- Richard Olson and Daniel F. Runde
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This brief presents a summary of key historical events in Afghanistan since 1989 and outlines a possible worst-case scenario following a U.S. and allied withdrawal from the country. The United States, Afghanistan, and its allies must work together in search for greater Afghan self-reliance, security, and stability in order to avoid a catastrophic scenario. Only then will Afghanistan be able to free itself of foreign presences and embark on its own journey to prosperity and self-reliance.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Governance, Hegemony, Military Affairs, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
29. US-Iran Showdown Begins in Iraq
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Ktaib Hizballah, with its political, military, economic and mafia-like aspects, is the most potent enemy of the US and its allies in Iraq today.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
30. Protests in Iran and Trump’s Maximum Pressure Campaign
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- America must provide Iranian demonstrators with access to the Internet to bolster the protests.
- Topic:
- Governance, Social Movement, Leadership, Conflict, and Protests
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
31. Made in China 2025 as a Challenge in Global Trade Governance: Analysis and Recommendations
- Author:
- Anton Malkin
- Publication Date:
- 08-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a reassessment of Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) — China’s industrial policy framework aimed at helping the country overcome the much-maligned middle-income trap — in the context of global trade governance. It suggests that China’s industrial policies have been viewed too narrowly — without sufficient attention to longer-term global governance issues — by a large segment of the global business and policy-making community. The paper argues that the general aims of MIC 2025 and the policies that underpin them are not unreasonable, given the increasingly prevalent dilemmas in global trade that China’s leaders are grappling with. These include problems of international development arising from growing global industrial concentration — driven by the growth of the intangible economy — and China’s shrinking access to importing and developing technological components (such as semiconductor chips) that are increasingly characterized as “dual-use” by China’s trading partners. This suggests that resolving the concerns of China’s trading partners regarding China’s industrial policies requires global trade governance reform to ensure an equitable, rules-based global trading order that addresses the legitimate needs of developing and middle-income economies in acquiring foreign-owned technological components and know-how, for the purposes of economic development. The paper concludes by outlining specific recommendations for Canada’s policy makers in improving their economic relationship with China in the context of MIC 2025.
- Topic:
- Development, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Governance, and Free Trade
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, Asia, and North America
32. Rethinking Industrial Policy for the Data-driven Economy
- Author:
- Dan Ciuriak
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews industrial policy in theory and historical practice. It makes the case for a fundamental reframing based on the centrality of data to the data-driven digital economy, the various roles that data plays in this economy (as a medium of digital transactions, as intangible capital and as infrastructure of a digitized economy), and the heightened scope for market failure in the data-driven economy. A number of points to guide the formation of industrial and innovation policy in the knowledge-based and data-driven digital economy are suggested. As part of their data strategies, countries should assess the market value of data generated in the exercise of public sector governance and data generated in Canadian public space; put in place procedures to capture data and regulate its capture; and use procurement to develop new capabilities in the private sector.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Infrastructure, Governance, and Digital Economy
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
33. Canada Needs Standards to Support Big Data Analytics
- Author:
- Michel Girard
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Standards can bring clarity on definitions, systems architecture, data ownership, grading, pooling, storage, disposal and set the bar regarding privacy and aggregation requirements. They are a necessary precondition for interoperability and commoditization to occur throughout value chains and across sectors. Canada has virtually no institutional capacity to develop standards in the information and communication technology sector. This policy brief proposes the creation of a standards collaborative that would be entrusted with the development of a standards road map to support big data analytics.
- Topic:
- Governance, News Analysis, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Canada and North America
34. The EU and China: Modest Signs of Convergence?
- Author:
- Gustaaf Geeraets
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Against a background in which the United States is increasingly drawing into question its commitments to free trade and the global commons, the challenge for the EU and China is to deal with a global governance system that is evolving from a multilateral system centred around the US into a more diffuse system resting on the three strong trading poles: China, the EU and the US.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Governance, European Union, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Europe, Asia, and North America
35. Cooperation in a Post-Western World: Challenges and future prospects
- Author:
- Michèle Roth and Cornelia Ulbert
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- The post-Cold War world has been characterised by global cooperation, largely driven by Western actors and based on the norms of Western liberalism. Today, global power shifts are accelerating. The Western liberal order finds itself in deep crisis. Its previous anchor, the United States (US), is no longer willing or able to run the system. Its most important former ally, the European Union (EU), is struggling with inte- gration fatigue. New nationalist movements in many Western countries are proliferating. In other parts of the world, too, people fear the impact of globalisa- tion and are seeking to regain national autonomy. What does this mean for the future of global cooper- ation? How can the wish for more national autonomy be reconciled with the need to cooperate in the face of unsustainable development, global inequality, conflict and gross violations of human rights? How do changing power constellations affect global cooper- ation? We suggest that new forms of governance will contribute to sustaining global cooperation. This paper uses the example of the Paris Agreement to illus- trate new forms of polycentric and multi-stakeholder transnational governance that are bottom-up rather than top-down. Moreover, constructive coalitions of the willing and more flexibility in global governance provisions might also be key for successful future cooperation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Cooperation, Governance, European Union, and Post Cold War
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and North America
36. Crowdsourcing Systems and Potential Applications in Nonproliferation
- Author:
- Bryan Lee
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
- Abstract:
- This report provides an overview of crowdsourcing systems and identifies the key elements in their successful operation. It also offers an examination of best practices for US government implementation of crowdsourcing projects. Finally, it describes four instances of crowdsourcing projects with applicability to arms control and nonproliferation. Crowdsourcing systems have been used to address a variety of problems, but government applications are typically restricted to one of four types
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Governance, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
37. Institutionalizing Gender in Emergencies: Case study of Dominican Republic
- Author:
- Zobeyda Cepeda and Eliza Hilton
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This case study describes implementation of the project Institutionalizing Gender in Emergencies: Bridging Policy and Practice.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Governance, Bureaucracy, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean, Dominican Republic, and North America
38. Tourism’s Dirty Secret: The exploitation of hotel housekeepers
- Author:
- Diana Sarosi
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- Tourism is booming and generates millions of jobs for women around the world. Yet the hotel industry exemplifies the vast inequality of today’s world. The women who make hotel beds and clean hotel toilets labour long hours for meagre pay, face sexual harassment and intimidation, are exposed daily to toxic chemicals and live in fear of arbitrary dismissal. Meanwhile, the top-earning hotel CEOs can earn more in an hour than some housekeepers do in a year. Such systematic exploitation is not inevitable. The hotel industry, consumers and governments must all be part of the solution to end the economic exploitation of women. This report examines the working lives of housekeepers in Toronto, Canada, Punta Cana, Dominican Republic and Phuket, Thailand. In dozens of interviews with hotel housekeepers, representatives of workers’ organizations and hotel managers, Oxfam found five overarching trends common to the three locations: in non-unionized hotels, extremely low wages that are not sufficient to live on; serious health risks and high rates of injury; high rates of sexual harassment; difficulty organizing due to employer resistance and bad management practices; and a lack of adequate child care.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Governance, Tourism, Sexual Violence, and Exploitation
- Political Geography:
- Canada, Asia, Caribbean, Dominican Republic, North America, and Thailand