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2. PA head Mahmoud Abbas reveals his anti-peace stance in attack against Israeli Arab politician
- Author:
- Hillel Frisch
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It took Mansour Abbas, the head of the southern branch of the Islamic Movement’s United Arab List party(Ra’am), to show that Mahmoud Abbas has no ideological resolve or intentions to recognize the Jewish state and make genuine peace with it.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Governance, Leadership, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
3. The Making of the Kurdish Frontier: Power, Conflict, and Governance in the Iraqi-Syrian Borderlands
- Author:
- Harith Hasan and Kheder Khaddour
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The Iraqi-Syrian border continues to be geopolitically restless. Kurdish parties have taken advantage of central government weaknesses to increase their autonomy in these areas. Even after the collapse of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, the Iraqi-Syrian border continues to be one of the most geopolitically restless areas in the Middle East. In the last few years, a variety of Kurdish entities and groups have increasingly shaped the dynamics across the northern section of this border. In particular, there are two dynamics that deserve attention. First, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the Kurdish-dominated Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria have come to effectively control new border crossings in this area as the Syrian government has lost access and the Iraqi government’s presence has been contested. This means that the movement of people and goods in this area is largely controlled by two entities that are neither state nor nonstate actors. The reality on the ground reflects hybrid arrangements that have emerged as a result of the weaknesses of both central governments and the increasing autonomy gained by Kurdish parties (which, in the case of the KRG, is stipulated constitutionally). Second, the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), by virtue of its participation in the war against the Islamic State and by taking advantage of the consequent power vacuum, managed to augment its influence along the border. Its ideological and organizational ties with local groups, such as the People Protection Units (YPG) in Syria and Sinjar Resistance Units (YBS) in Iraq, enabled it to exert security and political influence. On the one hand, this turned segments of the border into an arena for transnational, pan-Kurdish militancy. On the other hand, these groups’ presence intensified intra-Kurdish rivalries, especially between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which is the KRG’s main ruling party, and the PKK. This rivalry reflects a clash of two visions for the border: the PKK’s revolutionary, transnational vision that seeks to eradicate or at least underplay the reality of the border; and the KDP’s pragmatic and territorial vision seeking to assert the border’s reality as a demarcation of the KRG’s authority and future statehood. In addition, the KDP is allied with Turkey, which has been fighting the PKK for several decades and is currently waging a military campaign against the group in northern Iraq and Syria. To a large extent, the future of this border is predicated on this geopolitical conflict and whether the PKK manages to entrench itself further or becomes isolated and marginalized as the KRG, the Autonomous Administration, and the Iraqi federal government assert their territorial authorities.
- Topic:
- Governance, Conflict, Borders, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Syria
4. The “Non-State” State in Iraqi Political Discourse and Action
- Author:
- Ofra Bengio
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- For several years, the concept of “Iraq as a ‘non-state’” (Iraq al-ladawla) has been circulating within the Iraqi political sphere. This concept became the focus of heated debate among politicians, intellectuals, and journalists across the entire Iraqi political spectrum since the outbreak of the popular uprising in Iraq in October 2019. What is the meaning of this term? What were the circumstances that led to the development of the debate in Iraq? What political and socio-economic problems does it reflect?
- Topic:
- Politics, Non State Actors, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
5. Sectarianism and Sectarianisation in Iraq: Ambassadorial Appointments as an Exemplar
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- Sectarianisation of Iraq’s governance has already become a powerful driver of conflict. Left unaddressed, it can become irreversible. Here, ambassadorial appointments are used to underline the depth of sectarian divisions within the legislative and executive institutions, and offer ways forward.
- Topic:
- Governance, Sectarianism, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
6. Israel and the New ‘Old Europe’
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The new German government and the upcoming elections in France create challenges and opportunities for Israel’s foreign policy, which must adapt to Europe’s evolving political map.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, and Israel
7. Realpolitik Should Guide Israeli-Russian Relations
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- When Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett this week meets Russian President Putin for the first time, Bennett must use a realpolitik language.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Israel
8. The Collapse of Lebanon: Scenarios for the Future
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The dour forecasts regarding Lebanon’s future are based on fundamental facts that cannot be amended: A corrupt and rotten government and the dominance of Hezbollah. Under these circumstances, a possible alternative to current Israeli policy may be to reinforce the role of Syrian patronage, which has been undermined since 2005.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
9. Lebanon is dying a slow death
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises.
- Topic:
- Governance, Political stability, Civil Unrest, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
10. The Biden Foreign Policy Team
- Author:
- Bob Silverman
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A guide to the Biden Administration’s first moves and initial set of senior officials. It is no wonder that popular disenchantment with US elites sometimes bubbles to the surface in unexpected ways.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America
11. “The Pot and the Lid” in Eastern Jerusalem
- Author:
- David Koren
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The key to bringing calm to Jerusalem lies in wise management of the city during in times of calm, as well as handling moments of crisis with a firm hand.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Governance, Leadership, and Urban
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Jerusalem
12. srael and the Palestinian Issue in the Biden Era
- Author:
- Emmanuel Navon
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The next Israeli government would be well-advised to come-up with its own proposals for improving the life of Palestinians, both to further improve its own regional standing and to meet (some of the) administration’s expectations, in dialogue and partnership.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Governance, Leadership, Humanitarian Intervention, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
13. Post-Election Iran and Syria: Continuity or Change?
- Author:
- Hamidreza Azizi
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- On June 18, conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi won Iran’s presidential election to succeed moderate President Hassan Rouhani. For many, his victory came amid public dissatisfaction with the dire economic and political situation, along with widespread disqualification of reformist and moderate candidates, which significantly reduced voter turnout. Traditionally, lower turnout in Iranian elections means the victory of conservative or so-called ‘hardline’ figures and so Raisi’s victory was in many ways following a theme. However, even though the election and its outcome indicate a significant shift in Iran’s domestic politics toward more authoritarianism, its impacts on foreign policy, including Iran’s strategy in Syria, will be less tangible. Over the past several years, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has almost completely dominated Iran’s regional policy. At the same time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei openly seeks to limit the role of the president in foreign policy. Consequently, this means that Iran’s policy in Syria in the post-election period will be more about continuity than about change.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Leadership, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
14. Security Scenarios for Syria in 2021-2022
- Author:
- Serhat Erkmen, Nicholas Heras, and Kirill Semenov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Syria is a geographic entity divided into three main zones of control, each ruled by local actors with the strong and seemingly indefinite support of powerful foreign actors. These three zones are one zone in western, central, and eastern Syria controlled by the Syrian government, a second zone in northwest and northern Syria along the Syrian-Turkish border controlled by the Syrian opposition and supported by Turkey and a third zone in northeast Syria controlled by the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES) and its military the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) - which is supported by the United States and several of its allies that are part of the global coalition to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). The common perception by observers of the Syrian conflict is that it is frozen; that Syria will be indefinitely divided into these different territorial zones of control. This assumption obscures the fact though that a significant amount of fluidity on the ground within Syria's three main zones of control is possible. Each of these zones has its own unique characteristics and local customs that must be understood to draw broader assessments on how the wider Syrian conflict might be resolved one day.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
15. Regional Financial Arrangements and the International Monetary Fund: Sustaining Coherence in Global Financial Governance
- Author:
- C. Randall Henning
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Cooperation and competition among regional financial arrangements (RFAs) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increasingly determine the effectiveness of the global financial safety net (GFSN), which many observers fear is becoming fragmented. Overlap among these crisis-fighting institutions has important benefits but also pitfalls, including with respect to competition, moral hazard, independence, institutional conflict, creditor seniority and non-transparency. The study reviews the RFAs in Latin America, East Asia and Europe to assess their relationships with the IMF and address these problems. Among other things, it concludes: institutional competition, while harmful in program conditionality, can be beneficial in economic analysis and surveillance; moral hazard depends critically on institutional governance and varies substantially from one regional arrangement to the next; secretariats should be independent in economic analysis, but lending programs should be decided by bodies with political responsibility; and conflicts among institutions are often resolved by key member states through informal mechanisms that should be protected and developed. Findings of other recent studies on the GFSN are critiqued. Architects of financial governance should maintain the IMF at the centre of the safety net but also develop regional arrangements as insurance against the possibility that any one institution could be immobilized in a crisis, thereby safeguarding both coherence and resilience of the institutional complex.
- Topic:
- Governance, Surveillance, Strategic Competition, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Asia, South America, Australia, North America, and Global Focus
16. After the Pandemic: Reimagining the Role of State and Non-State Actors in (Re)building National Health Systems in the Arab World
- Author:
- Fadi El-Jardali
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In the Arab region, countries have become increasingly dependent on non-state actors, notably the private sector, for healthcare provision and any response that includes the State alone may not be sufficient to address the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper explores how state and non-state actors in Arab countries have collaborated so far and suggests ways forward to ensure quality healthcare services for all.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Governance, Health Care Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Middle East
17. Lebanon: Managing COVID-19 in the Time of Revolution
- Author:
- Ishac Diwan and Joelle M. Abi-Rached
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 pandemic in Lebanon is a crisis within a crisis. It occurred amidst a broader socio-economic meltdown that has shaken the country in recent months. While Lebanon appears to have responded effectively to the pandemic so far, a number of major challenges await it. With little measures to mitigate the economic impact of the confinement and protesters pushing to return to the streets, the country is entering an extremely volatile period. The only way out will be through measures that address the sanitary as well as underlying socio-economic issues that are threatening the entire country.
- Topic:
- Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
18. Lebanon: Government Recovery Plan Asks Too Much of Ordinary Lebanese, and Not Enough from Elites
- Author:
- Sami Halabi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Facing an economy in free-fall, the Lebanese government has finally adopted a financial recovery plan that it has sent to the IMF and international donors. This paper argues that the plan fails to introduce strong accountability measures to address rampant corruption and mismanagement and does not tackle widespread inequality which could be done through a better distribution of losses and the introduction of more progressive taxation. Despite the government’s stated promise to “protect the poorest segments of the population from the dire consequences of the crisis”, the paper expects the plan to inevitably harm Lebanon’s poorest as well as its middle class.
- Topic:
- Economics, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
19. Timebomb at the Port: How Institutional Failure, Political Squabbling and Greed Set the Stage for Blowing up Beirut
- Author:
- Reinound Leenders
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The institutional set-up of the Port of Beirut is emblematic of Lebanon’s post-war corruption and sectarian clientelism. Any investigation into the 4 August explosion needs to take into account the port’s dismal institutional record and how the current political class ensured its governance remained opaque and messy. This paper provides critical insights into the port’s set-up over the last 30 years highlighting the failing political system, a greedy political class, and entrenched mismanagement and corruption. It demonstrates how the bickering of key actors over the port’s control and the port’s institutional failures set the stage for the blast, pointing to an urgent need to build an accountable port authority as part of any reform effort.
- Topic:
- Government, Governance, Accountability, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
20. Towards a Zero-COVID Lebanon: A Call for Action
- Author:
- Joelle M. Abi-Rached, Nahla Issa, Jade Khalife, and Pascale Salameh
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In its first report, the Independent Lebanese Committee for the Elimination of COVID-19, a group of concerned citizens with various health-related expertise, addresses weaknesses in current government policy and highlights several directions and actions for a more coherent and sustainable national strategy.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
21. Decentralisation in Iraq: Process, Progress & a New Tailor-Made Model
- Author:
- Dlawer Ala'Aldeen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- The Iraqi state has become increasingly fragile for decades and is plagued with instability, social conflicts and wars. Many drivers have contributed to the country’s intractable fragility, one of which relates to its highly centralised and poorly institutionalised governing system, which has failed to manage centre-periphery tensions and integrate local communities into the country’s polities. Rebuilding Iraq’s governance along the lines of its democratic Constitution, which adopts decentralisation at its core, will be a critical step toward stabilisation, reconstruction, and socioeconomic recovery. The Iraqi Council of Representatives adopted two transformative legislations in 2008, namely Law No. 21 of the Governorate not Incorporated into a Region, and Law No. 36 of the Provincial, District and Subdistrict Council elections. These put Iraq on a decentralisation pathway that is still evolving. However, after more than a decade of experimentation, the decentralisation process has failed to tackle the on-going crises of legitimacy and a lack of trust in government. It has failed to address problems of rampant corruption, inefficiency and an inability to improve the lives of citizens. It is, therefore, paramount to review the existing system and propose ways forward, hence this timely report. Here, Nineveh is used as a representative governorate to review the challenges facing the decentralisation process and explore possible models that can be piloted.
- Topic:
- Sovereignty, Governance, Fragile States, State Building, and Decentralization
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
22. Iraqi Kurdistan: Priority issues for international mediation
- Author:
- Michael Knights
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- In the last decade, the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has seen many moments of crisis – budget cuts, Daesh’s assault on Erbil, the halving of oil prices (twice!) and armed conflict with the Iraqi government over Kirkuk. Today’s situation feels different and arguably worse than these episodes: there’s COVID, a deep oil recession in Baghdad and Kurdistan, intensifying tensions with Turkey and Iran, and an unpleasant undercurrent of resentment against the Kurds among many of the MPs in the Baghdad parliament. What makes this moment uniquely dangerous, however, is the near-breakdown of cooperation between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Iraq’s Kurds have shown that they can weather any storm when they pull together as a people. The KRI’s international partners tend to support the Iraqi Kurds more effectively when the two parties work in harmony, but often back away when they cannot identify a cohesive counterparty to deal with in the KRI. International memories of the intra-Kurdish civil war in the 1990s undermined the Kurdish cause in Iraq in the 2000s, when the Kurds’ greatest opportunity for self-governance lay before them. Looking forward, it is clear that the futures of Iraq and the KRI are linked. If Baghdad’s economy and currency collapses, so does Kurdistan’s. If the Kurdish people starve, the blame will fall on Baghdad. If the Islamic State returns, it will emerge first in the strip of disputed territories between federal Iraq and the KRI. The success of U.S. policy in Iraq is the success of both the fifteen provinces of federal Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, not one or the other. The U.S.-Iraq strategic dialogue will continue in the late summer, hopefully including a visit of the Iraqi leadership to Washington DC. This presents an opportunity to re-energize the role of the U.S. and international partners in the issues facing the KRI. It is important to stress the importance of a multilateral mission to support intra-KRI cohesion and Baghdad-KRI relations because America does not have all the answers on Kurdistan, nor does it tend to focus enough attention there. U.S. power and leadership are most effective when combined with the perceptive insights and good instincts of many other partners on Kurdistan, such as the French, British, and Canadians, to name just a few. There is an argument that the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Framework Agreement should either have a specific working group or committee on KRI issues (or on decentralization more generally), or a cross-cutting mechanism that ensures the KRI is worked into each of the security, political, economic and energy working groups. The list of topics that require persistent attention is quite long. Most important, the KDP and PUK need to be led towards a de-escalation that will allow the region to speak with one cohesive voice in Baghdad and with international partners. This is a foundational issue that affects all the other issues the KRI faces. An adversarial relationship between the two parties undermines everything that is attempted in the KRI and is deeply off-putting for international partners and potential investors. It can result in armed standoffs, affecting key industries like LPG trucking, or in security crises such as the Zina Warte armed confrontation between KDP and PUK Peshmerga in mid-March 2020. Almost nothing – from oil and gas investment to counter-terrorism to fighting COVID to negotiations with Baghdad – works as well as it should due to the KDP-PUK schism. It would be magical thinking to imagine that the two parties can easily reconcile. Even so, the U.S. and its various partners should prioritize efforts to get the powerful leaders in the same room to hammer out a minimal level of cooperation and start a dialogue, however stilted or tense at the outset. The U.S. and other internationals also need to help Baghdad and the KRI complete the promising steps that have been taken on political, security and economic cooperation. The Kurds worked well with former premier Adel Abdul-Mahdi’s government in Baghdad, and they have overcome their initial caution towards a change in Baghdad to support the new Prime Minister Mustapha al-Kadhimi, another old friend. For the Kurds, however, the relationship will be almost solely judged on what it delivers in terms of budget support. Having watched six Iraqi prime ministers negotiate and renegotiate budget deals with the Kurds every year for over a decade, the U.S. is intimately familiar with every possible configuration of give and take – more so than the Iraqi and Kurdish leaders themselves. What has always been clear is that politics trump economics in such discussions: typically, the solution is political and the numbers and formulas get fudged to fit the required compromise. This is why, for the remainder of 2020, Kurdistan will probably keep selling its oil and gathering customs revenue while Baghdad will provide a reduced top-up to the Kurdish exchequer each month, which is basically what has been happening for the last two years. A lot of discussion tends to end up right back where the parties began. This pattern of recurrent budget crises is not sustainable for two reasons. First, the annual showdown complicates an already fraught budgeting process and Iraqi MPs are becoming more hostile to the KRI economy every time the cycle is undertaken. Second, the KDP and PUK are increasingly fighting over the revenue-sharing mechanism, with Sulaymaniyah seeking more direct transfers from Baghdad or other guarantees of a fair share. The U.S. and its international partners need to back a multi-year arrangement that has buy-in at the highest levels: the Iraqi Prime Minister, speaking for a sizable bloc in Iraq’s body politic, and key leaders within the KDP and PUK. This is yet another reason why the two parties must be able to sit down together at the highest political levels. The sweet spot for a Baghdad-KRI budget deal would seem to be about $800mn per month, requiring the KDP and PUK to agree on a no-blame, non-politicized and permanent reduction of KRI obligations (salaries, social services and allowances) by about 30%. The U.S. and other internationals need to put strong and well-intentioned pressure on the KRI to appoint an empowered and dedicated Minister of Natural Resources to salvage investor confidence in the energy sector, which will serve as a signpost for the KRI’s future non-oil investors. A quick win for Baghdad-KDP-PUK cooperation may be possible in the realm of counter-terrorism. The Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service, the KDP-led Counterterrorism Department (CTD) and the PUK-led Counter-Terrorism Group (CTG) are three highly professional services that work closely with the international Coalition against Daesh. They have worked together before and can work in the disputed areas with relative ease now. The creation of joint counter-terrorism coordination centers should initially focus on these elite units and their related intelligence arms, not necessarily the “big military” units like the Iraqi Army, Federal Police and Peshmerga. One important symbol for Baghdad-KRI cooperation could be an investment in the deployment, for short periods, of some Iraqi Air Force F-16 aircraft to the airports in Erbil and Sulaymaniyah. These fighter-bombers were notoriously viewed as a stick that Baghdad might use against the Kurds, but today the F-16 fleet and its American technicians are struggling to stay in service as Iran-backed militias surround their operating base at Balad. Perhaps an out-of-the-box idea might be to cycle a fragment of the F-16 fleet through the safe operating environments of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah, as the Italian Air Force did with a small complement of Eurofighters during the war against Daesh. The common thread in all these options is a desire to “go big” in the Baghdad-KDP-PUK relationship, and for international players to encourage and support new thinking. The Kurdistan Region is currently cycling downwards, with less stability and less attractiveness as an investment environment, largely because Kurdish leaders are allowing themselves to be divided by personality politics. The U.S. intervention in Iraq in 1991 helped to free the Iraqi Kurds and the intervention in 2003 saw the U.S. ask those same Kurds to rejoin Iraq on the basis of U.S. guarantees. It is time to begin to make good on those guarantees. U.S. intervention transformed Iraq from a dictatorship to a democracy (imperfect, like all democracies), but an equally great transformation would be to help create an Iraqi state at peace with all of its components, first and foremost its Kurdish population. That moment can and should start in earnest now.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Governance, Peace, and Mediation
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
23. Why Israelis Like Trump
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- From his rejection of Obama-era political correctness to his family make-up, Trump has charmed Israelis.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
24. Rabin’s True Legacy
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Prime Minister Rabin insisted on defensible borders. He never entertained a return to the 1967 borders nor any territorial swaps.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
25. The Israeli Interest: Keep Syria Weak
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel should reject any overtures from the Assad government, and help keep “maximum pressure” on the regime.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Fragile States, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Syria
26. Douglas MacGregor is a friend
- Author:
- Gershon Hacohen and Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Antisemitism accusations against Dr Douglas MacGregor are deeply upsetting.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Anti-Semitism, and Political Culture
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
27. Lebanon: The Tragic Story of the Arab World
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is a failed state, and its misfortunes are characteristic of a broader regional malaise.
- Topic:
- Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Leadership, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
28. The Assassination of Hisham al-Hashimi: A Warning from Iraqi Shia Militias
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Killing of prominent adviser shows the determination of Iranian-backed Shia militias to resist any attempt to curtail their powers and freedom of action.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
29. Syria’s dictator Bashar Assad faces renewed challenges at all levels
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Bashar Assad is not about to fall, But economic deterioration, regime infighting, sanctions and unrest are combining to place his regime under renewed, severe pressure
- Topic:
- Economics, Fragile/Failed State, Governance, Authoritarianism, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
30. Coronavirus has caused protests in Lebanon to reignite
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The virus has no political preferences, and its generalized assault has led to cooperation in some arenas between bitter rivals.
- Topic:
- Governance, Social Movement, Protests, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
31. Israel’s Response to Covid-19: Strengths, Weaknesses and Opportunities
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Overall, Israeli society has remained resilient in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, and there are reasons to rate highly key aspects of the government’s response.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
32. Lessons to be Learned: Israel’s Handling of the Coronavirus Crisis
- Author:
- Giora Eiland
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Even amidst the ongoing crisis, it is critical to adjust government decision-making structures and operational management procedures to “emergency” mode, in order to ensure optimal outcome.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
33. Mullahs & COVID-19: Iran’s failing response reflects regime’s priorities
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Iranian regime’s response to the coronavirus crisis has been erratic and flailing.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
34. What we know about Iran five years after Netanyahu’s speech to Congress
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- We have five years of experience to compare to the competing assessments of 2015. Now we know that Netanyahu’s gloomy forecast has proven to be the more prescient.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
35. Hezbollah-dominated government emerges in Lebanon
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s dire economic state.
- Topic:
- Economics, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
36. Syrian People’s Council Elections 2020: The Regime’s Social Base Contracts
- Author:
- Ziad Awad and Agnes Favier
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of an unprecedented economic crisis, the Syrian People’s Council elections were held in July 2020, following two postponements due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the electoral campaign slogans launched by the candidates – especially the independents – focused on economic concerns, and made reference to charitable contributions and propaganda from the candidates, the elections failed to capture the interest of the majority of constituencies in the territories controlled by the Bashar al-Assad regime. As usual, the ruling Baath Party controls the majority of seats in the new Council. Certain marginal parties allied with the Baath are also represented within the so-called National Progressive Front (NPF), which is led by the Baath itself. Independents rank second in terms of seat numbers after the Baathists. However, partisan affiliations are of no significance in terms of stances vis-à-vis the regime, since loyalty is a non-negotiable prerequisite for all 250 MPs, and indeed all candidates. Though the Baath Party retains an absolute majority of seats in parliament (66.8%), the elections demonstrated the inability of its leadership to revive the Party as an effective political tool capable of exercising influence by itself. First, the primaries for selecting Party candidates were marked by limited participation, accusations of corruption and widespread objections within the Party. Second, the parliamentary elections saw a historically low turnout (33%), illustrating the Party's inability to mobilise the electorate. Finally, attempts to renew the Baathist bloc in the People's Council resulted in the rise of military and paramilitary figures (with the entry into parliament of retired army and police officers); a growing influence of capital (with higher numbers of businessmen MPs); and the emergence of centres of power outside the traditional Party structure (with the entry of charity and development activists, backed by First Lady Asma al-Assad). This heterogeneity within the Baath’s parliamentary bloc illustrates the reality of the Party today, which appears weaker than it was before the outbreak of the revolution.
- Topic:
- Governance, Elections, Democracy, and Local
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
37. Syria in the US and Israeli debate on Iran
- Author:
- Shira Efron
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- With presidential elections in the United States underway in November 2020[1], the only possible scenarios for Washington in the Middle East are either continuation and solidification, or a change in its Iran policy, each with different potential impacts on the geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel, and allied Arab countries on one side and Iran and its regional Axis-of-Resistance on the other. Analysing current convergences and divergences between the United States and Israel on Syria and Iran is important to anticipate potential changes in both countries’ positions following the US election, as such changes may impact the effectiveness and even the prospect of the continuation of the United States’ so-called ‘Maximum Pressure’ campaign. The policies of the two countries on Syria and Iran became varyingly intertwined as Iran entrenched itself deeply in Syria. Nonetheless, it is important to note that Israel and the United States differ in their approaches to tackling Syria. This contribution attempts to assess the US campaign against Iran, the cost it is likely to have inflicted upon it in Syria, and the outlook of an agreement with Iran. Although we are considering US policy on Iran, the analysis here also includes the Israeli perspective. Private conversations with Israeli current and former officials have provided important insights into how Israeli officials see US policy in Syria and vis-à-vis Iran, and can add a unique contribution to the dialogue. In this analysis, we sought to address several issues. First, whether there are any incentives for Iran to concede to US demands or reach a meaningful bargain, and whether under a Biden or Trump administration a new Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) could be renegotiated to include Iranian expansion in the region. We also examined the form and incentives structure that could entice Iran to offer a constructive contribution to the stability of Syria and the region. In addition, we assessed to what extent the Maximum Pressure campaign affects Iran, and whether targeting Syria with sanctions would incentivise both the Syrian government and the Syrian locals (who are working with Iran as fighters) to break with Iran. Finally, assuming that Iran is in Syria to protect its own interests, we question whether more threats to Tehran would lead to reduced presence in Syria.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
38. Security, Stability, and Counter-Terrorism in Idlib: A Turkish Perspective
- Author:
- Serhat Erkmen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In Idlib, armed groups can be categorized under three conglomerates: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Syrian National Army (SNA), and radicals led by Hurras al-Deen (HaD). Among these three anti-government groups, HTS is the strongest one. Though the SNA’s Idlib branch has more manpower than other groups, HTS has superiority in terms of discipline, organisation and weaponry.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Governance, Counter-terrorism, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
39. The Eighth Brigade: Striving for Supremacy in Southern Syria
- Author:
- Abdullah Al-Jabassini
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- In June 2018, the Syrian regime forces backed by Russia launched a military offensive that aimed at terminating rebel rule and restoring control over southern Syria. By August 2018, Daraa’s rebel organisations were pushed to surrender under a “patchwork” strategy, including Russian-led negotiations between regime and opposition figures, and the Syrian regime’s use of armed force. The two fundamentally divergent approaches have demarcated three main zones in which the regime’s authority and thus the roles former rebels come to play in the post-rebellion period vary significantly. In eastern Daraa, Russia established the Eighth Brigade, a sub-division of the Fifth Corps, and entrusted Ahmad al-Oda, a former rebel leader, with its command. By incorporating former rebels in the Eighth Brigade’s ranks, Russia, in fact, intended to establish a local armed actor characterised by a wide margin of manoeuvre to handle local security affairs and inflict acceptable and monitored small-scale violence to limit the regime’s authority and to keep Iranian influence at bay, thereby limiting status quo violations. For more than two years, the Eighth Brigade has limited the regime’s authority, served as a bulwark against Iranian expansion, intervened to defuse tensions, and mediated to prevent wide-scale regime-led military offensives against several localities, all of which are Russia’s top priorities to maintain the status quo in the south. Nevertheless, the Eighth Brigade has been mired in struggles to overcome and mitigate top four interrelated challenges. First, the absence of official recognition by the Syrian Ministry of Defence. Second, the ambitions of Iran and its proxies in southern Syria. Third, the intermittent cyclical patterns of retaliations with local armed groups in neighbouring province of Sweida. Fourth, the ongoing rivalries among former rebel leaders.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Governance, Local, Peace, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
40. Turkish Strategic Alternatives for the North East of Syria
- Author:
- Murat Yeşiltaş
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s Syrian policy has been under significant transformation since the Syrian uprising erupted in the Spring of 2011. In the early stage of the crisis, Turkey’s main objective was to peacefully support the democratic transition in Syria. However, with heightened competition between regional and international actors over the Syrian crisis and intensifying militarisation of the uprising, Turkey had to adopt a security-oriented strategy to prevent potential spill-over effects of the civil war into its borders. In the post-2016 security and strategic landscape, Turkey has been following a two-dimensional military strategy. On the one hand, while Turkey has been trying to minimize the terrorist threat in northeast Syria (NES), on the other hand it has been calibrating its military strategy in NES by supporting the Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Syrian Interim Government to establish a sustainable local order. This paper aims to make sense of Turkey’s strategic alternatives in northeast Syria by presenting four different scenarios.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
41. A debate with the Kurdistan Region’s President
- Author:
- Middle East Research Institute
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Middle East Research Institute (MERI)
- Abstract:
- This timely session was dedicated to a debate with the President of Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) to discuss central geo-political and domestic developments, including the protests and the crisis of governance in Baghdad; the Turkish invasion of Northern Syria (particularly Rojava); and finally, the effects of internal political fissures within the KRI.
- Topic:
- Development, Governance, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Baghdad, Syria, and Kurdistan
42. The protests in Iraq: Corruption and foreign interference in the firing line
- Author:
- Mariette Hagglund
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Recent large-scale protests in Iraq reveal deep dissatisfaction with the political elite and the dysfunctional system of governance. The protests could pose a threat to Iran’s foreign policy, whose channels of influence lie within parts of the Shia political elite in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Religion, Governance, Social Movement, Protests, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
43. Channeling Urban (Land) Rent Back into the Public Sector through Taxation
- Author:
- Bircan Polat
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
- Abstract:
- Following the March 31, 2019 local elections, the indebtedness of local governments has once again emerged as a subject of public debate in Turkey. Local government expenditures took center stage in these debates, yet much less attention has been paid to potential sources of revenue for local governments. Generation of internal sources of municipal revenue is no less important than the issue of expenditures as it pertains to the relative financial independence of municipalities from the central government. Among potential sources of municipal revenue, a significant one is taxation on urban (land) rent which occurs as a result of a few distinct processes: transformation of agricultural land into urban land due to population increase, migration, industrialization; zoning change that renders the property more valuable due to a number of potential factors such as greater proximity to parks, attractions, or highway systems.
- Topic:
- Governance, Economy, Tax Systems, Public Sector, and Urban
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
44. The Proposed Changes to Judicial Oversight of Government Powers: Justified Measures or an Erosion of Democracy?
- Author:
- Pnina Sharvit Baruch
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Amid the coalition negotiations underway in Israel there is a heated debate over various proposals regarding significant changes to the legal oversight of governmental and parliamentary work. Remarkable throughout the debate of these proposals is the lack of regard to their impact on the preservation and promotion of the character of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, and instead, there is a worrisome focus on political and personal motives. Against this background, it is possible to propose several recommendations. First, in the current debate, the Court is accused of "stealing democracy" and of being a political institution with a blatantly left wing agenda. This incorrect premise, which undermines the ability to conduct a public debate in constructive fashion and erodes the legitimacy of the Court and the public's faith in the Court, must be reversed. Second, there is room for discussion on appropriate constitutional changes. Democratic countries around the world have differing successful constitutional structures, and there is no "one right answer." Yet any future change must be carried out through a focused discussion that incorporates all relevant parties, including politicians, judges, and academics with expertise in the field. Finally, whatever the eventual constitutional changes, they must not undermine the basic principles of the separation of powers, the rule of law, and the power of the Court to practice effective oversight of the government. These are essential building blocks for proper democratic rule.
- Topic:
- Governance, Democracy, Constitution, and Secularism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
45. Syria’s Return to the Arab Fold
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Normalization, and Annexation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Syria
46. Fight foreign subversion in eastern Jerusalem
- Author:
- David M. Weinberg
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Assaults on Israeli sovereignty must be met by an Israeli counter-assault.
- Topic:
- Security, Sovereignty, Governance, and Civil-Military Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
47. Memo to the New Israeli Foreign Minister
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Minister Yisrael Katz should restore and reinvigorate the Israeli foreign service. Israel’s many recent diplomatic breakthroughs require systemic and sustained follow-up by a strong and committed cadre of professionals.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Israel
48. Zarif Defeated at Home
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The attempted resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif didn’t come as a complete surprise. It reflects the utter supremacy of the Revolutionary Guard in the Iranian political sphere.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
49. No Reason to Fear PA Economic Collapse
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- As dysfunctional as the Palestinian national movement has become, it has excelled in perpetuating the pork barrel born in Oslo.
- Topic:
- Economics, Territorial Disputes, Governance, Leadership, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
50. The Greatest Necessity: National Cohesion
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Israel’s government must nurture a spirit of unity and national purpose by building a policy consensus as broad as possible. This is necessary both in preparation for likely combat operations against Iran and its proxies, and in order to respond wisely to the American peace plan and to intelligently manage conflict with the Palestinians.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America