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1. The Egyptian Financial Crisis: Implications for the region, and for Israel too

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Egypt continues to play an active role in regional affairs, including the Aqaba emergency meeting on the Palestinian situation (February 26) and the ongoing effort to prevent escalation in Gaza. At the same time, Cairo is in the middle of a significant financial crisis. The effects of the war in Ukraine – specifically, grain shortages – brought the Egyptian pound to more than 30 to the dollar, up from 20 in November and 15 in early 2022, facilitated by deliberate government action in response to demands by the IMF. Inflation still soars, and so does youth unemployment. All this could destabilize a nation of 105 million on our border, with dire consequences.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Conflict, Fiscal Policy, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Israel, Egypt, and MENA

2. Prison Hunger Strikes in Palestine: A Strategic Perspective

Author:
Malaka Mohammed Shwaikh and Rebecca Gould
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC)
Abstract:
This publication is the first major transnational examination of prison hunger strikes. While focusing on Palestine, the research is enriched by extensive interviews and conversations with South African, Kurdish, Irish, and British ex-prisoners and hunger strikers. This study reveals in unprecedented detail how prison hunger strikes achieve monumental feats of resistance through the weaponization of lives. How do prison hunger strikers achieve demands? How do they stay connected with the outside world in a space that is designed to cut them off from that world? And why would a prisoner put their lives at risk by refusing to eat or, at times, drink? This research shows that sometimes prisoners’ need for dignity (karamah) and freedom (hurriya) trump their hunger pangs and thirst. Prison Hunger Strikes in Palestine evaluates the process of hunger striking, including the repressive actions prisoners encounter, and the negotiation process. It analyzes differences and similarities between individual and collective strikes, and evaluates the role and impact of solidarity actions from outside the prison walls. The work’s critical and grassroots understanding of prison hunger strikes fully centers the voices of hunger strikers. The analysis results in actionable takeaways that will be as useful to prison activists as they will be to their allies around the world.
Topic:
Prisons/Penal Systems, Hunger, Conflict, Repression, and Activim
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

3. The Pitfalls of Saudi Arabia’s Security-Centric Strategy in Yemen

Author:
Ahmed Nagi
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Saudi Arabia’s security-oriented approach to Yemen has foundered. The Saudi-led coalition has failed to defeat the Houthis militarily or to restore the government the group toppled. Moreover, Saudi militarization of the border with Yemen has damaged the Yemeni economy—with negative consequences for Saudi Arabia. Crucially, Saudi Arabia’s security is contingent on Yemen’s stability and economic prosperity. As such, Riyadh should contribute to reviving Yemen’s moribund economy, both in the borderlands and in the inland agricultural sector.
Topic:
Security, Agriculture, Economy, Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

4. ‘Peace through Health’ in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Ground for dialogue or guise for continued occupation?

Author:
Yotam Rosner
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
“Peace through Health” is a theoretical and applied approach that sees humanitarian health initiatives as a primary basis for dialogue and cooperation between adversaries. This approach posits that health initiatives can spawn increased discourse and dialogue between parties to a conflict, build trust and promote cooperation on various issues, eventually facilitating the transition from conflict to peace. Based on interviews with representatives of an Israeli human rights organization that provides health services in the Occupied Territories, this article examines the implementation of the “peace through health” approach in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Under the Oslo Accords, Israel handed responsibility for the health of the Palestinian population to the Palestinian Authority (PA).However, continued Israeli control and absence of full Palestinian sovereignty have resulted in a weakened and poor Palestinian health system. The severe shortage of health resources has created growing Palestinian dependence on local and international humanitarian health organizations, including health professionals from the Israeli side. An analysis of the interviews conducted for this article indicates that the humanitarian assistance by Israeli health professionals provides an opportunity to develop dialogue, achieve logistical cooperation, and establish trust between the peoples.At the same time, the article discusses the possible disadvantages of this approach in the Israeli-Palestinian test case as an example of humanitarian work that fosters normalization and preserves the status quo of occupation.
Topic:
Health, Occupation, Conflict, Peace, and Dialogue
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

5. Policy Paper: Considerations of condemnation and balance of Palestine’s position on the war in Ukraine

Author:
Palthink
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In classic wars, we waited for the military result, and then we formed a political response. In new wars, there is not a final resolution; there is only the stronger party imposing its conditions. Additionally, there is also geographical control, regime projection, or behavior modification goals. Russia is seeking to maintain its national security and enhance its regional and international position. It has a deep fear that NATO will expand, bringing weapons to its border with Ukraine. Now that the first shock of the war has receded, the world realizes that the war will not exceed Ukraine’s borders. Russia has given indications that it will limit itself to the minimum that preserves its national security by preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. Global concern about the consequences of war is high. People are wondering if it will continue or stop. Additionally, sanctions have been announced. In this context, developing and poor countries are affected by conflict because they depend on foreign aid. Their positions on the war will determine where they are positioned, and how the political, economic and security consequences will affect them. Trying to show a neutral position would not endear them to the great powers. On the face of it, it may seem to be a war fought on Ukrainian lands only, but it is a world war of influence. The survival of developing nations depends on the strength of the international community and the extent to which it supports these nations in the light of political realism, not because of their strength and resources. Many places cannot survive without traditional international support.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Palestine

6. Ukraine could have Repercussions for Syrian Regime, Israel

Author:
Marta Furlan
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The movement of Syrian fighters to Ukraine will significantly impact Syria’s internal dynamics, and Israel needs to monitor the situation closely.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

7. The Roots of Israel’s Diplomatic Revolution

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The latest diplomatic moves demonstrate that despite recent events in Jerusalem, Israel has thwarted the Palestinian plan to force it into diplomatic isolation.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

8. Israel Must Adjust its Ukraine Policy

Author:
Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The difficulties of the Russian military on the battlefield increase the possibility that in the coming weeks, Moscow will expand the fighting as part of preparations for a long-term military campaign.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

9. Biden, Israel, and China: Making a Difficult Threesome Work

Author:
Steven R. David
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is wrong to expect Israel, a middle-level economy, to decouple from China when far wealthier countries (including the United States) show no signs of following suit. Israeli companies should not be subject to restrictions not placed on companies elsewhere, including the United States itself.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, North America, and United States of America

10. The Dangers of Exaggerating the Impact of the Death of an Al Jazeera Propagandist

Author:
Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
An analysis of Google Trends demonstrates the dangers of exaggerating events easily and effectively manipulated by Palestinian propaganda.
Topic:
Media, Conflict, State Violence, Propaganda, and Narrative
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

11. Asking for Too Much: Will Hezbollah Prevent a Reasonable Compromise in the Lebanon-Israel Maritime Dispute?

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The recurrent pattern of asking for more and more – reminiscent of the folk tale about the fisherman’s greedy wife – has made a mockery of the ongoing attempt to diplomatically resolve the Israeli-Lebanese EEZ dispute. The negotiations have continued for years, and some in Lebanon understand the need for a negotiated outcome: but Hezbollah might yet again scuttle the deal.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Maritime, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

12. Increased and Targetted Force Reduced Violence in the Last Terror Wave

Author:
Hillel Frisch
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israeli forces, again, consistently entered these towns and their environs almost daily to make arrests, which led to a 90% decrease in terrorism.
Topic:
Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

13. A New Global Order? Israel’s Relations with China and Russia in Light of the War in Ukraine

Author:
Tuvia Gering and Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Despite their mutual support throughout the first hundred days of the war, Russia and China continue to have competing interests. Whereas Israel needs to be more responsive to Washington’s concerns about its two global competitors, it must also be mindful of populist calls to destabilize relations with Moscow and Beijing.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

14. Latest Killings in Iran May Indicate a Notable Shift in Israeli Strategy

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A notable change of the rules of engagement has taken place, in which the totality of Iranian actions will now be opposed, also on Iranian soil. The strike on the UAV fleet at Kermanshah and the assassination of Colonel Khodai in Tehran were the first manifestations of this new approach.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

15. The US Defense Establishment’s Role in Shaping American Regional Strategy

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel offers the US military and, even more so, the intelligence community critical support. For example, the US Army has gained through the acquisition of the Iron Dome missile defense system, tank technology such as reactive armor, solutions to the challenge of terrorist improvised explosive devices, mine-clearing devices, and much more. In turn, the US defense establishment –specifically CENTCOM, now that Israel is in its area of responsibility – increasingly reflects Israeli perspectives in Washington policy debates. This has recently been the case on Iran.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America

17. Understanding Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution delusion

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The idea that a Jewish and a Palestinian state will coexist peacefully is widespread in contemporary academic and political circles but ignores the reality on the ground.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Nation Building
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

18. Israel Caves to Bad Maritime Deal

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
We should not forget that moderate Arab states are watching Israeli behavior, especially in the Gulf. Without determined and effective action, Israel’s allies in the region, wary of American withdrawal and fearful of Iran, will be reluctant to rely on Israel and could later move closer to Tehran.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

19. The Maritime Border Agreement with Lebanon

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The agreement with Lebanon over the maritime border has several implications and needs to be examined from different angles.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, Conflict, and Borders
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon

20. The Libyan EEZ Challenge: Israel Should Reject Turkey’s Claims in the Eastern Mediterranean

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The delineation of the Libyan and Turkish Exclusive Economic Zones was and remains essential not only for Israel and Egypt but also for others in the region who seek to curtail Erdogan’s ambitions and shore up Egypt’s economic and political stability.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Mediterranean

21. The Bus Attack in the Jordan Valley: The Ethos of Resistance Increasingly Shapes the Palestinian Campaign

Author:
Kobi Michael
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Israel's current mode of operation against the escalation of attacks in the West Bank provides fertile ground for the intensification of the Palestinian ethos of resistance. From the perspective of the armed Palestinian operatives, the cost of the violent friction with IDF forces is not overly high. Symbols of national struggle are born each day and the sense of capability and expectations of the armed struggle are intensifying in the hearts and collective consciousness of the younger generation and provide motivation to join the struggle. But Israel's management of the conflict in the format of "mowing the grass” is reaching the limit of its effectiveness and could even lead to a largescale violent outbreak while it addresses isolated trees and not the forest, which is the real strategic challenge before it.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Violence, and Resistance
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

22. The American Withdrawal from Afghanistan, One Year Later

Author:
Yoram Schweitzer and Eldad Shavit
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Global considerations prompted the United States’ decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, not military pressure from the Taliban. This is evident one year after the withdrawal, despite the difficult scenes of the first few days after the Taliban takeover of the capital, Kabul, and the victory celebrations of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Furthermore, at this stage the danger of an international wave of terrorism in the West led by al-Qaeda does not appear to be a concrete and immediate threat. The killing by the United States via an armed UAV of al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was hiding in Kabul, has also contributed to the organization's weakness and put it on the defensive. For the US administration and from a long-term perspective, the withdrawal was the right step, which did not harm the United States' superpower standing and even enabled greater attention and resources for coping with the main challenges currently posed by China and Russia.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

23. Operation Breaking Dawn: Following the Successful Entry, an Exit Strategy is Required

Author:
Udi Dekel
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
After two days of successful fighting by Israel against Islamic Jihad, with a string of impressive achievements, the principal risk now is that Hamas will decide to emerge from the sidelines and join the campaign. This turn of events would necessarily lengthen the campaign and widen its scope. Therefore, Israel should try to end the operation, while it retains the upper hand
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Violence, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

24. The Cognitive War between Israel and Hamas: Implications and Recommendations

Author:
Yoram Schweitzer and David Siman-Tov
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Hamas has been working for the past year, and more specifically in the current wave of terrorism, to present itself as a powerful organization that succeeds in defeating Israel – even when things do not correspond to the situation on the ground. Israel repeatedly falls into the pit that Hamas has dug, failing to reflect the relations of the military forces before both the Palestinian and Israeli public. How can we win the game of cognition?
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

25. The Struggle for De Facto Sovereignty over the Temple Mount

Author:
Udi Dekel
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
19 Israelis were murdered in the terrorist attacks that occurred around the month of Ramadan, and once again al-Aqsa and the Temple Mount were the cause inciting the terrorists. Israel has yet to internalize that a campaign is underway for sovereignty over al-Aqsa. How should Israel act in advance of what are expected to be highly charged weeks ahead?
Topic:
Religion, Sovereignty, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

26. One Month after the Start of the Escalation: The Fog Dissipates

Author:
Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The escalation that began even before Ramadan has exacted a painful toll in Israel, and Hamas has indeed earned some achievements and improved its status. However, thus far events have not led to the organization’s desired outcome: mass demonstrations on several fronts, with the participation of Arabs from Israel, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank. Does Israel recognize the new challenges that Hamas attempts to pose? And what can be done now so that next year, when once again Passover and Ramadan coincide, this escalation does not recur?
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hamas, and Escalation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

27. Between ISIS and Arab Citizens of Israel

Author:
Yoram Schweitzer, Ephraim Lavie, and Meir Elran
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Although the three Israeli citizens who committed the terrorist attacks in Beersheba and Hadera were identified with ISIS, the organization has not gained a foothold within Israel’s Arab society. In general, the Arab sector objects to the ISIS ideology and violent measures. Israel must try to preserve this norm, building on the public denunciation of terror by Arab leaders and the further social and economic integration of the Arab society in the state
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

28. Seven Years Later: Is the War in Yemen Nearly Over?

Author:
Yoel Guzansky and Inbal Nissim-Louvton
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
After seven years of war in Yemen and more than 400,000 people killed, there are signs of dramatic developments that might lead to a turning point, with important implications for the region – and for Israel
Topic:
Security, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

29. Nonetheless, We Need to Maneuver

Author:
Gal Perl Finkel
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
“Defeat the enemy, defeat it quickly, in such a way that at the end of the day no one will ask who won and who lost.” These words of the former chief of staff continue to resonate today, and when voices emerge, arguing that the ground option should be a last resort, it is important to emphasize – only a combination of firepower, a defense system, and smart ground maneuvering can achieve a clear victory, one that we have not seen in a long time ago
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

30. With Ramadan Approaching, the Fear of Escalation

Author:
Yohanan Tzoreff
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The recent terrorist attacks are a tangible illustration of the growing concern in the security establishment and among the public of possible escalation approaching and during Ramadan. Israel has a few possible ways to act to lower the flames, including political and security moves that can be taken by virtue of improved ties with states in the region
Topic:
Religion, Terrorism, ISIS, Conflict, and Escalation
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

31. The Russian Bear and the Molotov Cocktail: The Palestinians and the Crisis in Ukraine

Author:
Noa Shusterman
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, the Palestinians – unlike most of the world – have remained silent and not demonstrated any solidarity with the Ukrainian people. What lies behind this posture, and how might the focus on the war in Eastern Europe influence the Palestinian issue?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Palestinian Authority, Strategic Interests, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

32. The War in Ukraine and Strategic Hedging by Arab Countries

Author:
Yoel Guzansky
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The war in Ukraine has accelerated the strategic hedging by Arab states, even at the risk of (temporarily?) harming their relations with the United States. Does this policy overreach its mark, and will the United States ultimately want to settle the score with these states? How does this foreign policy redesign the Arab sphere?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East

33. Hezbollah's Efforts to Restore its Domestic Standing: The Israeli Card

Author:
Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The launch of a drone into Israeli territory this past February was yet another offensive cognitive activity by Hezbollah, intended to mask its deteriorating situation – in the domestic arena, stemming from the growing criticism of the organization in advance of the coming elections, scheduled for May, and vis-à-vis Israel, given its difficulty to maintain the “deterrence equation” that it defined. Jerusalem should expect additional acts of this sort, while preparing for a future situation in which the attacks become a security threat
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

34. Understanding political violence in Jerusalem

Author:
Eran Tzidkiyahu
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
The current issue of Bayan is being published a few months after the tension in Jerusalem surrounding the Holy Esplanade / al-Aqsa Mosque. In his article, Dr. Eran Tzidkiyahu examines the roots of the religious and national tension on the Holy Esplanade in Jerusalem from a historical perspective and surveys the waves of violence between Jews and Palestinians during the last hundred years.
Topic:
Political Violence, Religion, History, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem

35. Taliban Victory Serves as a Model for Palestinian Terror Groups

Author:
Marta Furlan
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
World powers and Israel should refuse to recognize the Taliban regime. This would give hope to Middle Eastern terrorist groups like Hamas that they could also gain recognition under the right conditions. Upon returning to government, the Taliban have been implementing a system of civilian administration based on their Islamist ideological background. The consequences for women and minorities have been horrifying. The same can be said about Afghanistan’s economy, which can no longer provide for its starving population. The Taliban began house searches around Kabul recently, drawing criticism from Western diplomats about rights abuses. The Taliban claim that the operations are to find “kidnappers, professional thieves and crime groups,” however, seven residents told Reuters that the searches were spreading fear and appeared indiscriminate. In terms of security, the Afghan-Pakistani border and the Afghan-Iranian border have traditionally been porous, with illicit goods, illegal immigrants, and terrorists linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State-Khorasan Province moving undetected from one country to another. Similarly, the borders shared by Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan with Afghanistan remain characterized by volatility, which exposes those countries to the risk of exportation of terrorism from Afghanistan. Though Afghanistan’s neighbors have engaged in efforts to increase border security by erecting fences, conducting anti-terrorism exercises in the border areas, and relocating troops to border areas, the potential security threats originating from Afghanistan remain a source of great concern for the region and beyond. Nevertheless, for Islamists across the border in Pakistan and elsewhere in the Muslim world, the Taliban’s victory – and ability to hold onto power in Afghanistan – serves as a model they seek to follow. This should cause worry for Israel due to the encouragement this provides to radical Islamist armed groups such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) that a return to the armed struggle is the only path to defeat Israel.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Taliban, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

36. Understanding the Russia-Iran-Israel Triangle

Author:
Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
As Tehran invests efforts to improve relations with Russia, Israel will have to maintain a dialogue with Moscow to safeguard its military and diplomatic freedom of action.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Israel

37. The Ukraine Standoff as a Harbinger of Broader Shifts in the Global Order

Author:
Daniel Rakov
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Global powers might find it more challenging to reach a consensus on the Middle East than before. This makes it more critical for Israel to get separate understandings or develop new partnerships both globally and regionally.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

38. Houthi/Iranian attacks on UAE a response to losses on the Yemen battlefield

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Incensed by recent government gains in Yemen, the Iranians seek to intimidate the UAE into reversing course. At this juncture, it is therefore vital that both the US and Israel offer support for the UAE’s cause.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, North America, United States of America, Gulf Nations, and UAE

39. US Policy Towards the Yemeni Conflict Must Change

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Re-designating the Houthi movement as a terrorist organization after the drone attack on the UAE is imperative. This, along with overt support for the UAE, would deliver a sharp message and likely have a beneficial effect on Iranian conduct in Vienna.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Yemen, North America, and United States of America

40. Israel’s Ukraine policy: ‘Right side of history’ vs national interest

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
History has no right side and it does not evolve according to moral imperatives.
Topic:
Diplomacy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel

41. Eden Denied: Environmental Decay, Illicit Activities, and Instability in Iraq’s Southern Border Area

Author:
Harith Hasan
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Iraq’s Basra Governorate, on the border with Iran, has endured environmental degradation due to conflict and a reduction of water flows into the Shatt al-Arab waterway. The ensuing decline in agriculture has led to rural migration, unemployment, poverty, a flourishing of informal and illicit economies, and the growth of violent groups. Iran’s dominant influence in Iraq has sustained this situation. Unless these problems are addressed, instability in Basra will increase and will have long-term consequences for Iraq and the Middle East.
Topic:
Environment, Water, Conflict, Borders, and Instability
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Basra

42. Iranian Public Opinion on the War in Ukraine and Nuclear Options

Author:
Nancy Gallagher, Ebrahim Mohseni, and Clay Ramsay
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
Abstract:
The current survey is an Update, rather than a comprehensive check on Iranian public attitudes. This interim report covers findings on two unfolding security challenges – Iran’s nuclear program and the war in Ukraine – and their potential interconnections.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Public Opinion, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Ukraine, and Middle East

43. Resource Mobilization in Palestinian Nonviolent Campaigns

Author:
Mahmoud Soliman
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC)
Abstract:
This monograph analyzes how Palestinian grassroots activists, popular resistance committees (PRCs), and popular resistance networks (PRNs) secured, managed, and used material and non-material resources to wage sustained and successful nonviolent campaigns in Area C of the occupied West Bank. A comprehensive analytical framework is developed to capture a variety of resources and to better understand the role that different types of resources have in the launching, conducting, and outcomes of a campaign. This framework is then used to analyze three nonviolent campaigns led by Palestinian communities living under occupation, highlighting how the Palestinian activists managed to secure, administer, and deploy a diverse range of material and non-material resources to support their campaigns. This study offers specific recommendations and lessons learned from the investigated cases for various actors—including activists, allies that want to support grassroots campaigns, and researchers interested in furthering the study of the role and impact of resources in nonviolent organizing and their successful acquisition by local organizers
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Activim, Grassroots Organizing, and Nation Building
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

44. Iran in Syria: From Expansion to Entrenchment

Author:
Ido Yahel
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Iranian involvement in the Syrian civil war has often made headlines in Israel. Particularly in the context of the Israel Defense Force (IDF)’s so-called campaign between the wars (the Hebrew acronym is Mabam), which has included attempts to prevent Iran from establishing military bases in Syria, keeping Iranian forces away from the Syrian-Israeli border, and thwarting the transfer of precision weapons to Hizballah. But Iranian involvement in Syria goes far beyond the confines of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. As a result of the "Arab Spring" uprising and the Syrian civil war, Iran has succeeded in establishing itself in areas far from the Israeli-Syrian border and extended its influence in Syria beyond the military sphere.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Syria

45. Mockery as a Tool of Palestinian Resistance on TikTok

Author:
Maya de Vries
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
n June issus of Beehive, Maya de Vries investigates Palestinian activism in the TikTok platform. This article is part of special issue, "Social Media in Times of Conflict", which analyses social media activism during the recent military conflict "Guardian of the Walls" and communal disturbances in May 2021. During the last year, the use of the TikTok social media platform has skyrocketed, amassing more than a billion users worldwide. TikTok is a digital platform that allows its users to upload, share and watch short videos that last between 15 seconds to one minute (depending on the video’s format). The videos are uploaded with original or recorded text or music in the background. Recently, TikTok has become a major instigating factor in recent incidents in Jerusalem and throughout Israel, which led to extensive public discourse about the application’s role in the flow of events. For example, videos containing the hashtag #freepalestine garnered 6.6 billion views on TikTok. One video, in which a young Palestinian slaps a young ultra-Orthodox man on a train in Jerusalem went viral, and, to a certain extent, triggered additional cases of Palestinian violence in then city. During the latest conflict between Israel and Gaza in May, many more videos documenting fighting between Israelis and Palestinians flooded TikTok.
Topic:
Political Activism, Social Media, Conflict, and TikTok
Political Geography:
Middle East and Palestine

46. The Demonstrations on Israel’s Borders in Jordan and Lebanon during the “Guardian of the Walls” Military Operation: Grassroots Protests or Premeditated Outbursts of Rage?

Author:
Shay Jovany
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In June issue of Beehive, Shay Jovany compares social mobilisation in Jordan and Lebanon against the Israeli military operation “Guardian of the Walls”. This article is part of special issue, "Social Media in Times of Conflict", which analyses social media activism during the recent military conflict and communal disturbances in May 2021. Following several days of violence and civil unrest on the Temple Mount complex and in the Sheikh al-Jarah neighborhood, Hamas fired several rockets at Jerusalem on May 10. This triggered the “Guardian of the Walls” military operation, which similar to Israel’s past operations in Gaza, led to an outpouring of concern and condemnation in the international media and on social media platforms, including in the Arab world.
Topic:
Social Media, Conflict, Protests, Borders, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, and Jordan

47. The Impact of Covid-19 and Conflict on Middle Eastern Economies

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin assesses the economic damage caused by COVID-19 particularly in countries in the region experiencing the fallout of ongoing conflicts, and discusses several key trends that will continue to plague these hard-hit states. Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, war, low oil prices and COVID-19 are affecting the economic situation of the Middle East. Conflicts continue in Syria, Libya and Yemen, while Iraq and Lebanon suffer from the breakdown of government authority. The region appears to be less affected by COVID-19 than others, but that may be because data on infections and deaths is incomplete.
Topic:
Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria

48. Ceasefire Between Israel And Hamas: Is There Hope For Sustainable Peace?

Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The Israeli–Palestinian conflict is one of the world’s longest, most complex, and enduring conflicts, with the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip for more than half a century. Numerous efforts have been made to resolve the conflict as part of the Israeli–Palestinian peace process, but most of the attempts have not gone beyond ceasefires. Yet, the world has been polarized in resolving the conflict.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Hamas
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

49. Growing Azerbaijani–Central Asian Ties Likely to Trigger Conflicts With Russia and Iran

Author:
Paul A. Goble
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War (September 29–November 9) has had a transformative effect on the country. It not only changed the attitudes of its population, whose members now feel themselves to be heroes rather than victims (see EDM, January 21), but also bolstered the diplomatic weight and possibilities of the Azerbaijani government in its dealings with other regional states. In prosecuting a triumphant war against Yerevan, Baku demonstrated its own ability to act. But just as importantly, Azerbaijan has shown to peoples and governments in the Caucasus and Central Asia that it is a force to be reckoned with, in part thanks to its growing links with Turkey. Moreover, that alliance makes possible an appealing path to the outside world for all who join it. That reality is causing countries east of the Caspian to look westward to and through Azerbaijan in their economic planning and political calculations. At the same time, however, these developments are generating concerns in Moscow and Tehran, which oppose east-west trade routes that bypass their countries’ territories and instead favor north-south corridors linking Russia and Iran together. As a result, Azerbaijan’s recent successes in expanding links with Central Asia set the stage for new conflicts between Azerbaijan and its Turkic partners, on the one hand, and Russia and Iran, which have far more significant naval assets in the Caspian, on the other (see EDM, November 27, 2018 and February 20, 2020; Casp-geo.ru, December 24, 2019; Chinalogist.ru, November 21, 2019).
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Trade
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Central Asia, Middle East, and Azerbaijan

50. The Environmental Impact of Syria’s Conflict: A Preliminary Survey of Issues

Author:
Roba Gaafar
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The Syrian conflict has had devastating human and economic consequences, but it also greatly damaged the environment in the country. This paper provides a preliminary survey of a set of environmental challenges that impose significant health, social and economic costs, including air pollution, deforestation, soil and vegetation degradation, and water depletion, and suggests green solutions for post-conflict relief and reconstruction.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Health, Conflict, Green Technology, and Pollution
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria