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2. Why Elections Won’t Happen in Libya
- Author:
- Asma Khalifa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The 2021 agreement on holding elections was perceived by many Libyans as the light at the end of the dark tunnel of civil war and a reset to the political stagnation and the legal crisis. More than 2.5 million Libyans registered to vote, only for them to watch on the media a deliberate sabotage by those who were trusted in the process to commit to the agreement. While Libya is again setting the ground for future elections, this paper puts forward three points on why elections will not happen in Libya.
- Topic:
- Government, Democracy, Conflict, and Voting
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
3. The Impact of Covid-19 and Conflict on Middle Eastern Economies
- Author:
- Paul Rivlin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi: Middle East Economy, Paul Rivlin assesses the economic damage caused by COVID-19 particularly in countries in the region experiencing the fallout of ongoing conflicts, and discusses several key trends that will continue to plague these hard-hit states. Ten years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, war, low oil prices and COVID-19 are affecting the economic situation of the Middle East. Conflicts continue in Syria, Libya and Yemen, while Iraq and Lebanon suffer from the breakdown of government authority. The region appears to be less affected by COVID-19 than others, but that may be because data on infections and deaths is incomplete.
- Topic:
- Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, and Syria
4. Tunisia’s Wake-Up Call: How Security Challenges From Libya Are Shaping Defense Reforms
- Author:
- Frederic M. Wehrey
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The escalation and spillover of Libya's conflict has posed mounting security challenges for Tunisia and exposed shortfalls in the country's defense transformation, in the areas of capability gaps, interagency coordination, intelligence sharing, strategic planning, and in the military's relationship with foreign security patrons.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Libya, North Africa, and Tunisia
5. Covid-19 and a Deepening Conflict Worsen Libya's Humanitarian Situation
- Author:
- Khayreddine Basha
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The military conflict between Haftar and GNA forces in Libya continues to escalate, unaffected by Covid-19 or international calls for a ceasefire. A lack of coordination between the fighting parties and the ineffective implementation of measures to fight the spread of the pandemic further compound Libya’s worsening humanitarian situation. This paper explores Covid-19 impact on the health and humanitarian situation in Libya and examines the factors that contribute to the continuation of the conflict, including the incitement of international and regional actors involved in it.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Public Health, Humanitarian Crisis, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
6. Libya and the COVID-19 Lifecycle: From Distraction to Dissidence
- Author:
- Anas El Gomati
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- COVID-19 has changed the world and the way we live it, establishing something of a “new normal” as states and societies battle the pandemic and learn to accommodate its multidimensional effects. For Libyans’ living in the midst of conflict, normality and a new normal are difficult to determine. The economy, healthcare system and everyday lives of Libyans’ have been far from normal as a result of the 18-month conflict sparked by General Khalifa Haftar’s attempt to overthrow the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. However, the pandemic and its dynamism has had an impact far beyond the everyday lives of citizens. The lifecycle of the pandemic has had a major impact on the conflict itself. It first served to distract international powers from their diplomatic obligations and peace building in Libya, acting as a cover for local factions and their foreign sponsors to intensify the conflict during the initial global shockwave of the pandemic at the beginning of 2020. Towards the end of 2020, however, the pandemic compounded socio-economic and political pressures in Libya, sparking national demonstrations and dissidence towards the rival factions, leading to political resignations and renewed diplomatic negotiations in the process.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Economy, Conflict, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
7. A Ceasefire with Feet of Clay: The Potential Spoilers of Peace in Libya
- Author:
- Dario Cristiani
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- On 23 October 2020, negotiators from the 5+5 Joint Military Commission, the dialogue format between the forces of the UN-recognised Government of the National Accord (GNA) and Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), signed a ceasefire in Geneva. Two days later, the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) announced the launch of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), whose first round took place in Tunis between 9-15 November, after virtual sessions started on 28 October. Delegates agreed on a date for elections (24 December 2021) but not a new government, and will reconvene to continue negotiating at the end of November. While the announcement of the ceasefire and the political dialogue held in Tunis is obviously good news, the road ahead remains rife with challenges. The acting UNSMIL head, Stephanie Williams, has warned that many will seek, “for narrow personal and purposes, to corrupt and disrupt” the process. Looking ahead, four dynamics can spoil the process, undermining the prospects for a more sustainable political settlement in Libya: Haftar’s role; the situation of the global oil market; Turkey’s regional ambitions; and the economic interests of militia groups in Tripoli.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Peace, and Ceasefire
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North America
8. Exploring Armed Groups in Libya:
- Author:
- Emadeddin Badi
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- Libya’s security sector has become virtually unrecognizable from what it was a decade ago owing to the transformations brought about since the 2011 revolution. This evolution has implications on any attempts to usher in short-term and interim security arrangements as well as longer-term security sector reform (SSR) efforts. The paper explores the impact of different dimensions of these transformations on security provision in the Libyan landscape. In doing so, it aims to highlight the implications this has on attempts to reform the country’s hybrid security sector, and more broadly, how SSR doctrine can be informed by its findings.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
9. Theories of Democratic Change Phase III: Transitions from Conflict
- Author:
- Jennifer R. Dresden, Thomas E. Flores, and Irfan Nooruddin
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute of International Education (IIE)
- Abstract:
- The notion that robust democracy and violent conflict are linked is commonplace. Many observers of international politics attribute violent conflict in contexts as diverse as Myanmar and Syria to failures of democracy. Conversely, most agree that continuing political violence undermines any effort to build strong democratic institutions in Libya or South Sudan. As a matter of policy, democratization has often been promoted not only as an end in itself but as a means toward building peace in societies scarred by violence. Development professionals tackle these challenges daily, confronting vicious cycles of political violence and weak democratic institutions. At the same time, scholars have dedicated intense scrutiny to these questions, often finding that the interrelationships between conflict and democracy belie easy categorization. This report, the third in a series on democratic theories of change, critically engages with this literature to ask three questions: Under what circumstances do democratic practice or movement toward democracy quell (or exacerbate) the risk of different kinds of violent conflict? Under what circumstances do the risk and experience of violent conflict undermine democratic practice? How can external interventions mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities inherent in transitions to democracy and peace? To answer these questions, a research team at George Mason University and Georgetown University spent eight months compiling, organizing, and evaluating the academic literature connecting democratic practice and violent conflict, which spans the fields of political science, economics, peace studies, anthropology, sociology, and psychology. This work was funded by USAID’s Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (the DRG Center), under the Institute of International Education’s (IIE’s) Democracy Fellows and Grants Program. Beginning in May 2018, the authors organized a team of three research assistants, who read and summarized more than 600 journal articles, books, reports, and newspaper articles. The resulting White Paper was the subject of an August 2018 workshop with representatives from USAID and an interdisciplinary group of eight scholars with expertise in conflict and democracy. Based on their feedback, the authors developed a new Theories of Change Matrix and White Paper in October 2018. This draft received further written feedback from USAID and another three scholars. The core team then revised the report again to produce this final draft. This report’s approach to the literature differs from past phases of the Theories of Democratic Change project. While past reports detailed the hypothesized causes of democratic backsliding (Phase I) and democratic transitions (Phase II), this report focuses on the reciprocal relationship between democratic practice and conflict. The report therefore organizes hypotheses into two questions and then sub-categories within each question.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Education, Democracy, Conflict, Political Science, and USAID
- Political Geography:
- Libya, Syria, North America, Myanmar, South Sudan, Global Focus, and United States of America
10. Proliferation of Armed Militias and Complicity of European States in the Migration Crisis in Libya, 2011 - 2017
- Author:
- Chukwurah Adaora and Okoli Rowland Chukwuma
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
- Abstract:
- This study examined how the emergent militia groups in post-Gadhafi Libya shaped the contours of migration in the state. The following two questions were examined: How did proliferation of armed militia groups contribute to the migration crisis experienced in post-Gadhafi Libya?’, and ‘Did the prioritization of counter smuggling of migrants over rescue operations by European countries bolster the migrant-trading activities of militia groups in Libya?’ The study was anchored on the gate-keeper state theory. Documentary method of data collection was employed, while qualitative analysis of data was adopted. The study found that: the fall of Gadhafi regime in 2011 created interstices exploited by local armed militia groups to commoditise migrants in Libya. Again, the armed militia groups served as agents of the three warring governments in Libya for securing their regime/territories, and as agents of European countries, particularly Italy, to thwart flow of irregular migrants to Europe. The commoditization of migrants by militia groups coalesced with the antimigration strategies adopted by some European countries to create migration crisis in which an avalanche of irregular migrants became trapped in Libya and were subjected to exploitation and slavery. The study recommends strengthening of the subregional security architectures in Africa to enhance surveillance/control of porous borders.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Migration, Conflict, and Paramilitary
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Libya, and North Africa
11. ‘Peace’ in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- In fairness, peace almost always consists of a pause in the fighting that becomes a prelude to war. Taking modern Europe as an example, the Napoleonic wars were punctuated by failed peace attempts, and then led to the rise of Germany and a whole new series of wars with Austria, Denmark, and France. The repressive peace settlements following Europe’s upheavals in 1848 set the stage for decades of new rounds of conflict and revolution. World War I led to World War II, and then led to the Cold War and now to the Ukraine. Nevertheless, the current U.S. efforts to support peace negotiations in Afghanistan and the Middle East seem remarkably weak even by historical standards. In the case of Afghanistan, “peace” is being negotiated without even the same cosmetic level of local government participation that occurred in Vietnam. It is being negotiated when there is no political stability to build upon, and no apparent prospect that the coming election can bring real unity or effective leadership.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Africa, Iraq, Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Gulf Nations
12. Generals vs. Islamists in Libya
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Regional rivals clash via proxies in Tripoli fight.
- Topic:
- War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya