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2. What Drives Credit Risk? Empirical Evidence from Southeast Europe
- Author:
- Nikola Fabris and Nina Vujanović
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
- Abstract:
- Bank stability is an important aspect of financial stability, especially in bank-centric systems such as those in Southeast Europe. The financial crisis has shown that there is a particular need to monitor credit and other similar risks. Hence, it is important to analyse risks affecting the stability of both the banking sector and the financial system as a whole. To that end, central banks have developed macroprudential policies aiming to safeguard financial stability. However, little is known about the drivers of some financial risks. In that context, this study analyses the determinants of credit risk, which is the most prominent risk in the banking sectors of three selected Southeast European economies – Montenegro, Kosovo* and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Dynamic panel data techniques were applied to 48 banks, which represent almost the entire banking sectors in the respective countries. The empirical evidence has shown that both macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants represent influential factors driving credit risk in Southeast Europe. Particularly important macroeconomic factors affecting credit risk are business cycle and sovereign debt. On the other hand, bank size, capital levels, credit activity and profitability are the most prominent factors influencing credit risk in the region.
- Topic:
- Risk, Credit, Financial Stability, and Banking
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Bosnia and Herzegovina
3. From Kosovo to Ukraine: lessons from the humanitarian response to conflict and displacement in Europe
- Author:
- Margie Buchanan-Smith and Peter Wiles
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
- Abstract:
- While there are many differences between the conflicts in Kosovo and Ukraine, the international humanitarian response to both bears many similarities. For example, both crises triggered record levels of funding and most international humanitarian agencies on the receiving end had limited or no presence and experience in the countries affected. Protection is the dominant need amongst affected communities in both crises as well. This paper – written by Margie Buchanan-Smith and Peter Wiles – highlights key lessons from the international humanitarian response to the Kosovo crisis that could have relevance to the response in Ukraine. The lessons are drawn from the three-volume ‘Independent Evaluation of Expenditure of DEC Kosovo Appeal Funds’ and ALNAP’s meta-evaluation of the Kosovo response, from our 2001 Annual Review.
- Topic:
- International Organization, Conflict, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Response
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo
4. A Spoiler in the Balkans? Russia and the Final Resolution of the Kosovo Conflict
- Author:
- Maxim Samorukov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The biggest point of contention in the Balkans is back on Europe’s front burner. For decades, Serbia was mired in a conflict with Kosovo, its breakaway province that unilaterally declared independence in 2008 after violent ethnic clashes and international intervention in the late 1990s. Last year, a protracted diplomatic effort to end the conflict was unexpectedly boosted when then U.S. national security adviser John Bolton announced that U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration was ready to consider changes to the Serbia-Kosovo border as part of a settlement. The Serbian government welcomed the idea, giving rise to hopes that a negotiated solution to the Balkan conflict is now potentially within reach. Still, any final settlement is very much an uphill battle. Many Kosovar leaders are not enthusiastic about the proposed border correction, which would entail swapping areas in northern Kosovo populated mainly by ethnic Serbs for Serbian municipalities dominated by ethnic Albanians. Germany and other members of the European Union (EU) have disapproved strongly, arguing that redrawing boundaries may open a Pandora’s box, with unpredictable ripple effects.2 On top of all that, it is increasingly clear that Russia, which has long held great sway over the region, may not actually want the conflict resolved at all. So long as Serbia does not formally recognize Kosovo’s independence, it must rely on Russia’s veto power in the United Nations (UN) Security Council to prevent full international recognition of what it regards as a breakaway province. That dependency gives Russia a nontrivial degree of influence, both in the region and within Serbia itself. The Kremlin fears that ending the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo will diminish Russia’s stature in Serbia and severely undermine its clout in the Balkans. Moscow is well-positioned to derail the resolution process. Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoys unchecked popularity across most of Serbian society, and the Russian political and national security establishment maintains close ties with its counterparts among Serbia’s political and security elites, who tend to strongly oppose any compromise with Kosovo. From all appearances, Moscow also hopes to use its influence over the Kosovo issue as leverage in its acrimonious relationship with the West.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Conflict, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, and United States of America
5. Kosovo: An Unlikely Success Still in the Making
- Author:
- Daniel Serwer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- he modern Kosovo state is a product of Albanian nonviolent and violent rebellion, Serbian repression, the dissolution of socialist Yugoslavia, state collapse in Albania, NATO intervention, U.S. and EU support, Russian weakness, and UN administration. Without one or another of these ingredients, it might never have occurred, and certainly not in the surprising way that it did.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, United Nations, Geopolitics, Independence, and Resistance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Kosovo, and Balkans