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42. Ruling Palestine I: Gaza Under Hamas
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The policy of isolating Hamas and sanctioning Gaza is bankrupt and, by all conceivable measures, has backfired. Violence is rising, harming both Gazans and Israelis. Economic conditions are ruinous, generating anger and despair. The credibility of President Mahmoud Abbas and other pragmatists has been further damaged. The peace process is at a standstill. Meanwhile, Hamas's hold on Gaza, purportedly the policy's principal target, has been consolidated. Various actors, apparently acknowledging the long-term unsustainability of the status quo, are weighing options. Worried at Hamas's growing military arsenal, Israel is considering a more ambitious and bloody military operation. But along with others, it also is tiptoeing around another, wiser course that involves a mutual ceasefire, international efforts to prevent weapons smuggling and an opening of Gaza's crossings and requires compromise by all concerned. Gaza's fate and the future of the peace process hang in the balance.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Gaza
43. The United States and ASEAN-China Relations: All Quiet on the Southeast Asian Front
- Author:
- Ian Storey
- Publication Date:
- 10-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- While the overall security situation in Southeast Asia is something of a mixed bag with grounds for both optimism and pessimism, one of the most encouraging trends in recent years has been the development of the Association for Southeast Asian Nation's (ASEAN) relations with major external powers. Relations between China and ASEAN in particular have demonstrated a marked improvement over the past decade, thanks to a combination of burgeoning economic ties, perceptions of China as a more constructive and responsible player in regional politics, and Beijing's “charm offensive” toward Southeast Asia. Overall, the development of ASEAN-China relations poses few security challenges to the United States: Good relations between China and ASEAN enhance regional stability, and a stable Southeast Asia is clearly in America's interests, especially with Washington focused on events in the Middle East. Although ASEAN-China relations are very positive, this does not necessarily mean the United States is losing influence in Southeast Asia, or that ASEAN members are “bandwagoning” with China. In fact, they are hedging by keeping America engaged and facilitating a continued U.S. military presence. While ASEAN-China relations are relatively benign today, several sources of potential friction could create problems in Sino-U.S. relations: these are Taiwan, Burma, and the South China Sea dispute. This monograph examines each of these scenarios in turn.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, Taiwan, Beijing, and Southeast Asia
44. Fighting irrelevance: An economic community 'with ASEAN characteristics'
- Author:
- John Ravenhill
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian National University Department of International Relations
- Abstract:
- The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) enters its fifth decade of economic cooperation in more favourable circumstances than those experienced at the time of its thirtieth anniversary. Paradoxically, and contrary to expectations at the time, the financial crises of 1997—98 may have strengthened ASEAN. The backlash against what was perceived as an unsympathetic Western response to East Asian difficulties put ASEAN at centrestage in new regional cooperative arrangements. Moreover, rivalry between China and Japan for regional leadership has led them both to seek to negotiate regional partnerships with ASEAN as a whole. ASEAN, however, faces new challenges—particularly from rapid economic growth in China and India, and from the proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) (including a large number involving individual ASEAN members). ASEAN has made only slow progress in economic cooperation. The complete removal of tariffs has fallen behind schedule and is not due to be realised until 2010. The private sector makes little use of ASEAN's preferential arrangements because they afford little advantage over most-favoured-nation tariffs—certainly not sufficient to offset the costs of complying with paperwork, and the consequent delays experienced. ASEAN has made little progress on 'deeper integration' issues—the removal of 'beyond border' barriers to trade. Some of the bilateral PTAs that ASEAN countries have negotiated with extra-regional partners go further in removing barriers than ASEAN's own arrangements. ASEAN members continue to eschew binding commitments within their own economic collaboration despite making them within the World Trade Organization and in some of their bilateral PTAs. Liberalisation under ASEAN's auspices has not been sufficiently significant to encourage business groups to invest substantial resources in lobbying for deeper integration.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Economics
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, India, Israel, East Asia, and Australia/Pacific
45. Case studies in Chinese diplomacy
- Author:
- Stuart Harris
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Australian National University Department of International Relations
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to examine China's changing diplomacy. To do this it considers how China is approaching its diplomacy in a number of specific contexts. The examples chosen to illustrate its more nuanced diplomacy are the US—China relationship; China's relations with Latin America; the Six-Party-Talks over North Korea's nuclear ambitions; China's concerns about energy security and its relations with 'unsavoury' regimes; and China's relations with its neighbours.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, East Asia, Asia, and Latin America
46. Looking Back and Looking Forward: North Korea, Northeast Asia and the ROK-U.S. Alliance
- Author:
- Hyeong Jung Park
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Following the inauguration of the Bush administration in 2001, South Korea and the United States entered into a period of dissonance and even mutual repugnance. It began with differences in North Korea policy in 2001, and expanded into other areas. The Bush administration's mismanagement ignited a surge of anti-Americanism in South Korea, which in turn led to a round of Korea-bashing in the United States.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Israel, East Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korea
47. China's New Military Elite
- Author:
- Li Cheng and Scott W. Harold
- Publication Date:
- 12-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Analyses of the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have largely focused on the policy and personnel changes taken at the leadership conference. 1 Much less has been said about the implications of the massive turnover among the military representatives who sit on the Party's 17th Central Committee (CC), including its powerful Central Military Commission (CMC). While generational turnover is leading to a new Chinese political leadership that is less technocratic and more broadly trained in economic and legal fields, the Chinese military elites on the Party's top bodies are becoming ever more functionally-specialized in their areas of military expertise. Meanwhile, various forms of patron-client ties and political networks have played crucial roles in the rapid rise of young and technocratic officers.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Defense Policy, and War
- Political Geography:
- Israel and East Asia
48. From Rejection to Acceptance: Israeli National Security Thinking and Palestinian Statehood
- Author:
- Shlomo Brom
- Publication Date:
- 02-2007
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Despite the current stalemate between Israel and the Palestinians, the issue of Palestinian statehood is sure to reemerge. Israeli national security thinking on Palestinian statehood and the two-state solution has undergone a revolutionary change in the past two decades from total rejection to broad acceptance. After the 1967 war, Israeli thinking was characterized by the denial of the existence of a Palestinian national identity, and the perception that a Palestinian state would pose an existential threat to Israel. The first intifada, which broke out at the end of 1987, convinced the Israeli security community that the denial of Palestinian national identity was pointless and that only a political solution could resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although security measures alone may have contained the conflict, they simultaneously perpetuated it. At the same time, Israel's regional threat perceptions began to change as the conventional balance of power tilted in Israel's favor, and the likelihood of large-scale ground war was gradually replaced by the threats of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles on one hand, and terrorism and guerrilla warfare on the other. These new perceptions led Israel's political leadership to initiate the Oslo process, which enjoyed wide support among the security community. This process led to mutual recognition between the state of Israel and the Palestinian people, and implicitly to Israel's recognition of the Palestinian right to statehood. The collapse of the Oslo process in 2000 and the outbreak of the second intifada had a conflicting impact on Israeli national security thinking. On one hand it had a moderating effect on Israeli thinking about the terms of the resolution of the conflict and led to broad acceptance of Palestinian statehood, while on the other it deepened Israel's mistrust of the Palestinians and shook its belief in the feasibility of negotiating a permanent status agreement with the Palestinians. The most salient facet of present Israeli national security thinking is the growing importance of demography over geography because current population trends threaten Israel's Jewish and democratic character. As the acquisition of territory has become less important, national security is being defined in broader terms to include threats to the character of the state. The wide acceptance of Palestinian statehood has not precluded an intense debate on the nature of this state and its relationship with Israel. Those who assume that it will be a dysfunctional state hostile to Israel favor unilateral separation, while those who believe in the feasibility of a Palestinian state living in peace with Israel continue to argue for a negotiated settlement.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Peace Studies
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Oslo
49. Losing Hearts and Minds: World public opinion and post-9/11 US security policy
- Author:
- Carl Conetta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Defense Alternatives
- Abstract:
- The sympathy and support for the United States that surged worldwide in the aftermath of the 2001 attacks began to ebb as soon as US bombs began falling on Afghanistan. Supportive sentiments continued to recede through 2004, driven increasingly by the Iraq war and eventually settling at levels unseen since the early 1980s. The trend has temporarily reversed in some places at some times, either in response to hopeful news from Iraq (such as the December 2004 elections) or in reaction to local events (the November 2005 terrorist bombing in Jordan). Also, there are national exceptions to the trend (Israel) and partial exceptions (India). On balance, however, the United States today finds world opinion substantially at odds with its foreign policy and its leadership on most particulars.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Israel, and Jordan
50. The Long March in Hong Kong: Continuing Steps in the Transition from Colony to Democracy
- Author:
- Herman B. Leonard and Thomas S. Axworthy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Avowedly apolitical, Hong Kong is in the midst of the most rapid political transition in China and the success of this transition is crucial not only for the seven million residents of Hong Kong, but also for the future of China itself. How the authorities in Beijing respond to democratic demands from Hong Kong, and how the government of Hong Kong treads a democratic pathway within the boundaries of the Basic Law, are two of the most important questions in international politics today. China's decisions about Hong Kong will tell us much about the prospects of democratic transformation in China itself, and on that crucible the future of the 21 st century might turn.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Globalization, and Government
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong