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102. Qods Day Advances Iran’s Regional Aspirations
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- “Qods Day” reflects Tehran’s determination to annihilate Israel, a pillar of Iranian foreign policy. It also is an important part of “exporting” the Islamic Revolution.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Ideology
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
103. Reject Iran’s Request for an IMF Loan
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Under the pretext of separation between regime and people, Iran seeks $5 billion in IMF emergency funding to fight COVID-19. This would significantly undermine the pressure on Iran being applied by US sanctions, and therefore the loan should be denied.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Sanctions, Pandemic, IMF, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
104. Rising Tensions and Security Chaos in Syria’s Deraa Province
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.
- Topic:
- Security, Conflict, Regionalism, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
105. Cyber-Warfare between Iran and Israel
- Author:
- Omer Dostri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The recent reciprocal cyber-attacks attributed to Israel and Iran were meant to set red lines on the non-kinetic dimension of war.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Digitalization
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
106. Is Iran Gaining a Foothold in the West Bank?
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- A moribund terrorist group, the PFLP, is experiencing a revival and launching terror attacks, with help from Iran.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
107. Coronavirus has not changed the Middle East
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Conflicts persist, and the revisionist powers continue their disruptive behavior. This includes Iranian subversion and acceleration of its nuclear project, as well as Turkey’s expansionism in Syria.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
108. Israel’s strategy in Syria is less coherent than it seems
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- There is a discrepancy between the stated goal – the expulsion of Iran from Syria – and the means being employed by Israel to achieve it.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
109. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Goes to Space
- Author:
- Uzi Rubin
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Now that IRGC leadership in Iran’s space effort is out in the open, it can be expected that its homemade, long-range rockets with a global reach will be revealed soon, as well.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Space, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
110. Iran keeps up its malign behavior, pandemic notwithstanding
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- In the meantime, it doesn’t seem as though Iran – the driving force behind most of the friction in the Middle East – is changing its plans or abandoning its dreams, whether in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or even Yemen.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
111. Coronavirus and the Campaign against Iran
- Author:
- Udi Levi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- There may be a change in Iranian policy towards the US due to Iran’s economic and coronavirus difficulties.
- Topic:
- Economics, Sanctions, Fragile States, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
112. Mullahs & COVID-19: Iran’s failing response reflects regime’s priorities
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Iranian regime’s response to the coronavirus crisis has been erratic and flailing.
- Topic:
- Governance, Leadership, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
113. What we know about Iran five years after Netanyahu’s speech to Congress
- Author:
- Yaakov Amidror
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- We have five years of experience to compare to the competing assessments of 2015. Now we know that Netanyahu’s gloomy forecast has proven to be the more prescient.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Israel
114. How Iran funds Palestinian Islamic Jihad
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- PIJ is an important part of the Iranian strategy for fighting Israel. The regime in Tehran makes use of charities and other civilian organizations, such as money changers, to transfer funds to its allies in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
115. After Soleimani: Iran Resumes Proxy Warfare Against the US
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iran is reverting to attacks on the US through non-Iranian organizations under its control.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Proxy War, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
116. Iran, Hezbollah stir chaos in Syria’s southwest
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Syria
117. Could Congress’ latest Syria sanctions bill backfire?
- Author:
- Aiman Mansour
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.
- Topic:
- Economics, Military Strategy, Sanctions, Legislation, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
118. More pressure on Iran still needed
- Author:
- Efraim Inbar
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Trump has made it clear that attacks on American personnel are going to elicit a military reaction.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
119. Iran lacks good options
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Strategic Stability, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
120. The Battle for the Tribes in Northeast Syria
- Author:
- Nicholas Heras
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Northeast Syria (NES) is fragmented under the control of different powers that are all seeking to gain the support of the local Arab tribes. Those seeking to upset the status quo include the Assad regime and its allies (Russia and Iran), Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies, and ISIS —all seeking disruption with different motivations, yet working side by side. Those seeking to maintain the status quo include the U.S.-led Coalition, the Autonomous Administration of Northeast Syria (AANES), and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Often, earning the support and alliance of the tribes is a transactional process whereby the tribes seek direct financial support and community investment, employment opportunities, military support, and autonomy to run their own affairs. Currently, most local tribal groups are calculating that a tenuous U.S.-protected order in northeast Syria provides better security and provisions than the alternatives from the Assad regime and its allies, or by Turkey and its Syrian rebel proxies. However, ISIS remains a threat to all the powers involved in northeast Syria, and it is the major spoiler seeking to create the conditions for a return to the old order which was established under ISIS’s territorial Caliphate from 2014-2019.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America
121. Syria in the US and Israeli debate on Iran
- Author:
- Shira Efron
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- With presidential elections in the United States underway in November 2020[1], the only possible scenarios for Washington in the Middle East are either continuation and solidification, or a change in its Iran policy, each with different potential impacts on the geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel, and allied Arab countries on one side and Iran and its regional Axis-of-Resistance on the other. Analysing current convergences and divergences between the United States and Israel on Syria and Iran is important to anticipate potential changes in both countries’ positions following the US election, as such changes may impact the effectiveness and even the prospect of the continuation of the United States’ so-called ‘Maximum Pressure’ campaign. The policies of the two countries on Syria and Iran became varyingly intertwined as Iran entrenched itself deeply in Syria. Nonetheless, it is important to note that Israel and the United States differ in their approaches to tackling Syria. This contribution attempts to assess the US campaign against Iran, the cost it is likely to have inflicted upon it in Syria, and the outlook of an agreement with Iran. Although we are considering US policy on Iran, the analysis here also includes the Israeli perspective. Private conversations with Israeli current and former officials have provided important insights into how Israeli officials see US policy in Syria and vis-à-vis Iran, and can add a unique contribution to the dialogue. In this analysis, we sought to address several issues. First, whether there are any incentives for Iran to concede to US demands or reach a meaningful bargain, and whether under a Biden or Trump administration a new Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) could be renegotiated to include Iranian expansion in the region. We also examined the form and incentives structure that could entice Iran to offer a constructive contribution to the stability of Syria and the region. In addition, we assessed to what extent the Maximum Pressure campaign affects Iran, and whether targeting Syria with sanctions would incentivise both the Syrian government and the Syrian locals (who are working with Iran as fighters) to break with Iran. Finally, assuming that Iran is in Syria to protect its own interests, we question whether more threats to Tehran would lead to reduced presence in Syria.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Governance, Elections, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
122. Iran’s Preferred Outcome in Syria: An Open-End or a Formal Agreement?
- Author:
- Hassan Ahmadian
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Iran’s security concerns drove its involvement in the Syrian crisis back in 2011. With an evolving strategy over the past nine years, Tehran has upgraded its Syria policy in accordance with the ongoing developments on the ground, moving from military training based on the Iranian Basij model, to regionalising this model (as was the case in Iraq with the Popular Mobilization Forces) and encouraging Russian military involvement. In what may be seen as the final stage, Iran is backing its Syrian ally as well as allied militias to balance against other main stakeholders. Iran is attempting to solidify military gains by continuing to back a political process that is properly representative of warring parties and ensures a smooth transition of power, and one whose outcomes will not undermine Iranian geopolitical interests in the country.
- Topic:
- Security, Development, Military Strategy, Regionalism, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
123. American Sanctions and European Sovereignty
- Author:
- Jean De Ruyt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- The decision by the United States to withdraw from the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” and re-impose sanctions on Iran broke an international understanding, sanctioned by a UN Security Council Resolution. However, European and other non-US companies dealing with Iran must abide by US law in order to avoid its extra- territorial effects on their US operations. Efforts are being made to help the EU keep its “sovereignty” on sanction issues when there is disagreement with the US, but until now these have not accomplished much. Therefore a new Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) was launched at the end of January to ensure the continuation of some trade with Iran. But the only convincing way to allow the EU to increase its autonomy is to boost the role of the Euro in international transactions. Certainly, in today’s unpredictable world, we need more than ever to address the issue of the extraterritorial application of American sanctions – today it is Iran, what if tomorrow it is China?
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Sovereignty, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and North America
124. Reviving the Security Function: EU's Path to Save the JCPOA
- Author:
- Abdolrasool Divsallar and Marc Otte
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- Europe's efforts to keep the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) for Iran alive hardly seem effective. On 28 June 2019, during a meeting of the Joint Commission of JCPOA, it was announced that the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) has been made operational. 1 Though it injected new hope into saving the deal, it is unlikely that in the long term INSTEX’ limited scope will meet Tehran's demands. The Middle East is going through tough times since the US unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA and started to exert 'maximum pressure' on Iran, prompting unparalled tensions between the two nations. Can the EU do more?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, and Middle East
125. Russia in the Middle East: Jack of All Trades, Master of None
- Author:
- Eugene Rumer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- The 2015 Russian military intervention in Syria was a pivotal moment for Moscow’s Middle East policy. Largely absent from the Middle East for the better part of the previous two decades, Russia intervened to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime and reasserted itself as a major player in the region’s power politics. Moscow’s bold use of military power positioned it as an important actor in the Middle East. The intervention took place against the backdrop of a United States pulling back from the Middle East and growing uncertainty about its future role there. The geopolitical realignment and instability caused by the civil wars in Libya and Syria and the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia have opened opportunities for Russia to rebuild some of the old relationships and to build new ones. The most dramatic turnaround in relations in recent years has occurred between Russia and Israel. The new quality of the relationship owes a great deal to the personal diplomacy between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but Russia’s emergence as a major presence in Syria has meant that the Israelis now have no choice but to maintain good relations with their new “neighbor.” Some Israeli officials hope that Moscow will help them deal with the biggest threat they face from Syria—Iran and its client Hezbollah. So far, Russia has delivered some, but far from all that Israel wants from it, and there are precious few signs that Russia intends to break with Iran, its partner and key ally in Syria. Russian-Iranian relations have undergone an unusual transformation as a result of the Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war. Their joint victory is likely to lead to a divergence of their interests. Russia is interested in returning Syria to the status quo ante and reaping the benefits of peace and reconstruction. Iran is interested in exploiting Syria as a platform in its campaign against Israel. Russia lacks the military muscle and the diplomatic leverage to influence Iran. That poses a big obstacle to Moscow’s ambitions in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Geopolitics, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Iran, Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
126. Iranian Public Opinion under “Maximum Pressure”
- Author:
- Nancy Gallagher, Ebrahim Mohseni, and Clay Ramsay
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM)
- Abstract:
- The Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) has been conducting in- depth surveys of Iranian public opinion on nuclear policy, regional security, economics, domestic politics, and other topics since the summer of 2014. Each survey includes a combination of trend-line questions, some going as far back as 2006, and new questions written to assess and inform current policy debates. This report covers findings from three surveys fielded in May, August, and early October 2019 to evaluate how the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign is affecting public opinion in Iran. The United States withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018, and began re-imposing sanctions on Iran that the Obama administration had lifted under the terms of the 2015 agreement it had negotiated with Iran, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. In the fall of 2018, it blacklisted hundreds of Iranian entities and threatened to impose secondary sanctions on anyone who did business with them. In spring of 2019, it tried to prevent Iran from getting any revenue from oil sales, its main export, by ending exemptions for key customers. In the summer of 2019, it tightened constraints on Iran’s access to the international financial system, including channels that had been used to pay for medicines and other humanitarian goods that were officially exempted from earlier sanctions. It also sanctioned Iran’s foreign minister, complicating his ability to interact with U.S. officials, experts, and media figures. The Trump administration’s stated objective is to keep imposing more sanctions until Iran acquiesces to a long list of U.S. demands articulated by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The original twelve points include the types of restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program that the government rejected during previous negotiations and that the Iranian public has consistently opposed. It also includes stopping development of nuclear-capable missiles, ending support for various groups throughout the Middle East, halting cyberattacks and other threatening activities, and releasing all U.S. and allied detainees. Pompeo subsequently added other demands related to civil liberties in Iran. The Iranian public enthusiastically supported the JCPOA when it was first signed, partly due to unrealistic expectations about how much and how quickly economic benefits would materialize. After the International Atomic Energy Agency certified in January 2016 that Iran had met all of its nuclear obligations and implementation of sanctions relief began, foreign companies were slow to ramp up permissible trade with Iran or to make major investments there before they knew how the next U.S. president would view the JCPOA. By the end of the Obama administration few Iranians said that they had seen any economic benefits from the deal and most lacked confidence that the other signatories would uphold their obligations. But a solid majority of Iranians (55%) still approved of the agreement.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
127. Israel and Iran in the Age of Trump: Israeli Perspectives
- Author:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 2 March 2019 Pugwash held a roundtable in Tel Aviv in cooperation with the Israeli Pugwash Group and the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, University of Tel Aviv. More than 25 participants including former officials, academics, and members of civil society attended, including a small number from Europe, the US and Russia. Discussion broadly focused on the situation in the Middle East and the role of the United States and Russia, as well as China, and with a particular focus on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Many Israelis continue to have serious concerns regarding the entrenchment of Iranian influence and the extent of their force projection toward the Levant. Equally, many Israelis were keen to understand the nature of the Russian-Iranian relationship, most acutely expressed through their cooperation in Syria in recent years, and how the direction of US policy appears to be evolving in the region. In general, it was observed that the prevailing tensions in the region – with ongoing conflict in Syria and Yemen, the isolation of Qatar amongst many Arab countries, and the deepening rivalry between Iran and other countries – should be viewed through the lens of the lack of communication between officials and non-officials across the spectrum of complex issues.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, and Military Strategy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and North America
128. Tehran Meeting on JCPOA
- Author:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 23-24 June 2019 a delegation from Pugwash travelled to Iran to participate in a specially-arranged two-day meeting organized together with the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS) in Tehran. The central focus of the discussions was the current status of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more than one year after the United States withdrew from implementing it, and the ensuing program of ever-tightening sanctions imposed by the US on Iran that has dramatically increased tension in the Middle East. The meeting also put this into context by looking at the regional situation of arms control, as well as Iran’s relations with China, Russia, the EU, and its neighbours including Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
129. Tehran Meeting on JCPOA
- Author:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
- Abstract:
- On 23-24 June 2019 a delegation from Pugwash travelled to Iran to participate in a specially-arranged two-day meeting organized together with the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS) in Tehran. The central focus of the discussions was the current status of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), more than one year after the United States withdrew from implementing it, and the ensuing program of ever-tightening sanctions imposed by the US on Iran that has dramatically increased tension in the Middle East. The meeting also put this into context by looking at the regional situation of arms control, as well as Iran’s relations with China, Russia, the EU, and its neighbours including Afghanistan.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, European Union, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, North America, and United States of America
130. The Rising Crisis between the United States and Iran
- Author:
- Amos Yadlin
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- After a year in which Iran opted for "strategic patience," in the hope that European nations would compensate for the United States sanctions, it now seeks to present a price tag for the US measures against it, and has thus embarked on a response comprising action in three realms: nuclear, military, and oil exports from the Gulf. In the current circumstances, Iran and the United States are demanding conditions that would make a resumption of negotiations difficult, although both sides apparently understand that dialogue may ultimately be the less dangerous option for them. The latest developments embody the potential for escalation and miscalculation that is liable to affect Israel's security, and therefore the security cabinet should convene to craft an appropriate policy for the near, medium, and long terms.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Oil, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America
131. Does Hezbollah Want a War with Israel Now?
- Author:
- Orna Mizrahi and Yoram Schweitzer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Voices in the Arab media have recently suggested that war between Israel and Hezbollah may erupt this coming summer. This debate began even before the rise in tension between the United States and Iran in the Gulf, which once again brought to the fore the possibility of Iran using Hezbollah as a proxy against Israel. In recent speeches, however, Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah acted quickly to calm the waters, while delivering messages designed to deter Israel from taking measures against Hezbollah. Nasrallah asserted that Hezbollah was capable of striking strategic sites on the Israeli home front and conquering parts of the Galilee. These statements indicate that as far as Hezbollah is concerned, the current circumstances are not convenient for a conflict with Israel, due to Hezbollah's continuing involvement in the war in Syria and a wish to avoid undermining Hezbollah's recent achievements in the Lebanese political system. Also important is Hezbollah's deepening economic plight, resulting in part from American sanctions against the organization and its patron, Iran, although these economic difficulties have not yet affected Hezbollah's continued investment in its military buildup and deployment for a future war with Israel. Nevertheless, even if Hezbollah has no interest in a large scale conflict with Israel at this time, escalation as a result of particular measures by Israel in Lebanon and the organization's response, or from Hezbollah's own actions against Israel aimed at serving Iranian interests, cannot be ruled out. Israel must therefore prepare in advance for the possibility of a military campaign in the north.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Hezbollah, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Persian Gulf
132. Russia and Iran: Is the Syrian Honeymoon Over?
- Author:
- Udi Dekel and Carmit Valensi
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The rescue of Bashar al-Assad’s regime by the pro-Assad coalition, comprising Russia, Iran, and Iranian proxies, led to the victory of the regime over the rebels; the coalition’s achievements stem primarily from the effective cooperation between Iran and Russia since 2015 in fighting the rebels. Now, with the battles over, despite shared interests in consolidating the Assad regime, inherent tensions between Russia and Iran regarding influence in Syria have emerged in greater relief. Yet despite the disagreements, this it is not a zero-sum game between Russia and Iran. Both continue to cooperate on a range of issues in the Syrian arena and beyond. Iran for its part continues to see its consolidation in Syria as a strategic objective, and despite difficulties that have emerged, it seems that Tehran remains determined to continue, even if to a lesser extent than originally planned. After the success of Israel’s military actions to halt Iran’s military consolidation in Syria, Jerusalem should maximize the political potential and the shared interest of Russia and the United States to stabilize the situation in Syria, and to reduce Iran’s influence and capabilities in the country.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Iran, and Syria
133. The United States’ Soft War with Iran
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Iran is engaged in a soft war, or jang-e narm, with the United States. Iran uses formal and informal means to influence populations across the globe and has expanded its information campaign utilizing the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, cultural centers, universities, and charitable foundations. But Iran’s authoritarian political system and attempts to control access to information make it vulnerable to a U.S. and Western information campaign. Iran’s weaknesses suggest that a major component of U.S. competition with Tehran should be ideological.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Conflict, Ideology, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
134. Dangerous Liaisons: Russian Cooperation with Iran in Syria
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones, Nicholas Harrington, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- As tensions escalate between the United States and Iran in the Middle East, Russia is engaged in covert and overt cooperation with Iran in ways that undermine U.S. national security interests. This analysis of commercial satellite imagery at Tiyas Airbase in Syria indicates the scope and proximity of Russian and Iranian military ties. If Washington wants to contain Tehran and prevent further Iranian expansion, U.S. policymakers will need to increase pressure on Moscow to curb Tehran’s activities in countries like Syria.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Intelligence, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
135. Iran May be the Threat but Iraq is the Prize
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- It is all too tempting to focus narrowly on the maritime crisis in the Gulf, and the potential threat to the flow of petroleum and the world’s economy. This is where the daily headlines focus, and some form of threat is all too real. In practice, however, the U.S. already faces other threats in the region and from Iran, and at least one is potentially far more serious in grand strategic terms. These “other threats” include Yemen, Syria, and the failures of the Arab Gulf states to unite in creating an effective defense against Iran. Most importantly, they include the U.S. and Arab struggle with Iran for influence in the Gulf.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Maritime, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, and Middle East
136. Achilles’ Heel: Adding Resilience to NATO’s Fragile Missile Shield
- Author:
- Ian Williams
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Tensions with Iran are once again increasing. The slow implosion of the nuclear accord, Iran’s harassment of cargo ships, and the downing of a U.S. unmanned aircraft have made plain the risk of conflict between Iran and the United States. The dispute should also draw attention to the questionable preparedness of the United States and its allies to fight a war with Iran on short notice and deal with that war’s blowback across the Middle East and Europe. Regional missile defense architectures are an important part of that preparedness. Iran has the largest and most diverse supply of ballistic missiles in the Middle East region, and Tehran has shown an ability and willingness to use them in combat operations.1 Iran is also learning to employ other kinds of aerial threats, such as long-range cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In a conflict with Iran, U.S. and allied forces would likely face a wide spectrum of air and missile threats. The biggest U.S. investment in Iran-centric missile defenses has been the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA). EPAA is a phased buildup of U.S. missile defense assets in and around Europe to deter and, if necessary, limit damage from an Iranian missile attack on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Yet the EPAA architecture is heavily dependent on the nominal, unencumbered performance of a single radar deployed relatively close to Iran. This produces a single point of failure susceptible to malfunction or operator error. It also presents an Achilles’ heel that a determined or imaginative adversary could exploit. Iran certainly fits both descriptors. In 1958, strategist Albert Wohlstetter wrote that U.S. confidence in its nuclear second-strike ability was achieved only by “ignoring the full range of sensible enemy plans.”2 This same critical judgment should be applied to confidence in the EPAA as currently configured. Inasmuch as a sensible adversary such as Iran relies upon its missile forces to achieve its defense goals, it should be credited with the foresight to target single points of failure that would preclude the effective application of that missile force. Fortunately, there are practical steps that NATO and the United States can take to further adapt EPAA for greater resiliency. Upgrades to existing radars, the integration of allied radars into the missile defense mission, and the addition of air and space-based sensors would do much to improve EPAA’s capability and survivability, improving U.S. and NATO preparedness for an unexpected Middle East conflict.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Missile Defense
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, North Atlantic, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
137. Iran’s Threat to Saudi Critical Infrastructure: The Implications of U.S.-Iranian Escalation
- Author:
- Seth G. Jones, Danika Newlee, Nicholas Harrington, and Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Tensions between Iran and the United States have heightened concerns about the threat to critical infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, including in Saudi Arabia. This report argues that while Saudi Arabia has vulnerabilities in its oil, desalination, electricity, SCADA, shipping, and other systems, Iran has thus far adopted a calibrated approach. Tehran has conducted irregular attacks to infrastructure using offensive cyber weapons, naval ships to impede oil tankers, and partners like the Houthis in Yemen. The United States should focus on deterring further Iranian escalation, refraining from actions that threaten the regime’s survival, and providing a political “off ramp” for Iran to de-escalate.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
138. Iranians Will Not Forget.
- Author:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Abstract:
- Frustration with the resilience of Iran and with its ties to China and Russia have pushed the regional allies of the US – and the US itself – to renew threats against Iran. The hybrid war against Iran has included economic sanctions, sabotage, and assassinations, as well as an information war. To break through the information barrier, Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research interviewed Professor Mohammed Marandi of the University of Tehran. This conversation focuses on the unilateral US sanctions policy against Iran, on Iran’s resilience, and on Iranian relations with China and Russia.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Sanctions, Alliance, Conflict, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
139. The United States-Iran standoff: Recent tensions are symptomatic of President Trump’s broader foreign-policy approach
- Author:
- Ville Sinkkonen
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The heightened tensions between the United States and Iran should be understood in the context of the Trump administration’s broader foreign policy approach. Even if neither side wants a military confrontation, the “maximum pressure” campaign by the US has raised the risk of a potential miscalculation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America
140. Sanctions and US foreign policy in the Trump era: A perfect storm
- Author:
- Ville Sinkkonen
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- A newfound focus on great-power competition has brought geoeconomics to the forefront of strategic thinking in Washington D.C. The United States is well positioned to use coercive economic tools, particularly unilateral sanctions, in this game because of its structural advantages in the global economy and financial system. President Donald Trump and his administration have also signalled a preference for the unilateral use of sanctions to excel in the competitive international geostrategic environment and confront “rogue regimes”. Meanwhile, wrangling between Congress and the White House over sanctions policy has intensified since the 2016 presidential election. These systemic, policymaker-bounded and domestic-political factors have created a perfect storm in US sanctions policy. While the US may be able to pursue sanctions unilaterally in the short term, in the long run this may dissuade allies from cooperating and erode America’s structural advantages as other states resort to hedging.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America
141. US foreign policy tools in the era of disinformation: Deficiencies prevent effective response to malign information operations
- Author:
- Deborah A. McCarthy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Russia, China, Iran and ISIS use information operations to undermine the national security objectives of the United States and its allies. However, the US’s international response has been weak. Internal constraints have limited more effective counter-measures. In particular, the lack of a coordinated White House-level strategy, dispersed authorities and little cooperation with private social media companies can be identified as causal factors. Additional steps by the Trump Administration to counter foreign disinformation will aim to protect the 2020 presidential elections rather than to push back on efforts to undermine US leadership abroad.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Science and Technology, ISIS, Social Media, and Disinformation
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and North America
142. Iran’s Land Route: A Strategic Threat
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iran is taking advantage of the crises created by ISIS and the Arab Spring to advance its land route project from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. The American withdrawal from Syria will remove one of the obstacles that stand in Iran’s path, yet Israel has demonstrated its determination to prevent the establishment of this route.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Economic Cooperation, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Mediterranean
143. Iran’s Strategy for Control of Syria
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- One way Iran’s efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures – in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
144. Iranian Economic Failure Spoils 40th Anniversary Celebrations
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Iranian media claimed that millions filled the streets on the 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution. The opposition, however says that fewer people participated. Iran’s nuclear program will not protect the regime against the people’s antipathy.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Economic Policy, and State Media
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
145. Syria’s Return to the Arab Fold
- Author:
- Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Normalization, and Annexation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Syria
146. Zarif Defeated at Home
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The attempted resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif didn’t come as a complete surprise. It reflects the utter supremacy of the Revolutionary Guard in the Iranian political sphere.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Leadership
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
147. Iranian-Russian Cooperation in Yemen
- Author:
- Micky Aharonson and Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country’s civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, and Yemen
148. European Appeasement of Iran Endangers National Security in Europe
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The EU’s insistence on preserving the nuclear agreement with Iran and its persistent efforts to establish a mechanism for evading American trade sanctions are encouraging Iran to escalate its subversion throughout Europe.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Appeasement
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Iran, and Middle East
149. Iran Strengthens its Land Route to Damascus
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Iranian “corridor” is a central project for the mullahs in Iraq and Syria, involving a highway which would connect Tehran with Damascus.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Hegemony, Strategic Stability, and Roads
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria
150. Will Iran Retaliate against the US for Designating the IRGC as a Terrorist Organization?
- Author:
- Yossi Mansharof
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Iran is not likely to target American troops, since Teheran’s strategy is to wait-out the Trump administration.
- Topic:
- Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
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