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1. India-Russia Relations in Troubled Times: Steady but Stagnating

Author:
Aleksei Zakharov
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
This paper examines the trajectory of India-Russia relations post-February 2022. The war in Ukraine emerged as a significant challenge for bilateral ties, presenting new obstacles to political and diplomatic relations and intensifying the previous difficulties in developing economic cooperation. Moscow and New Delhi have demonstrated divergent approaches to the advancement of their strategic partnership. While Russia has rushed into reinventing the old friendship with India, the latter has acted with greater discretion. New Delhi has demonstrated a nuanced approach to navigating the Russia-Ukraine conflict, staying on good terms with Moscow and the West. India’s record imports of Russian crude and other commodities, at times in defiance of Western sanctions, have allowed for a considerable boost in bilateral trade. While this “oil connection” may benefit both the Indian and Russian economies, it should not be misperceived as a leap forward in partnership. The structural challenges appear to still prevent the two sides from reinvigorating the economic ties. Furthermore, their geopolitical understanding is waning, and their defense cooperation is currently in a state of limbo. As long as the war in Ukraine persists, India seems to be prioritizing maintaining the status quo in its relationship with Russia over pursuing new initiatives. This may help to prevent the two sides from drifting apart too far in the near term but is unlikely to lead to any substantive progress in their relationship.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, Vladimir Putin, and Narendra Modi
Political Geography:
Russia, South Asia, and India

2. Labour market inequality in two Asian giants Indonesia and India compared

Author:
Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We examine the nature of labour market inequality in Indonesia and India, using a common conceptual approach drawing from the job ladder framework. In the framework, we differentiate between self-employment and wage-informal and between formal, upper tier informal, and lower tier informal jobs. We find that both countries have a large proportion of workers in lower tier jobs, though the importance of wage-employment is larger in Indonesia. There are more workers in formal wage-employment in Indonesia than India. There are also sharp disparities in the earnings of workers in different tiers of the labour market in Indonesia and India, and there is limited evidence of convergence of the earnings of the lower tier informal workers to that of formal workers, at least for Indonesia. We also find that gender and educational level are important correlates of work status in both countries. Females and less educated workers occupy the lower tiers of the labour markets in the two countries.
Topic:
Employment, Inequality, Economy, Labor Market, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia, Indonesia, India, and Asia

3. Factsheet: Hindu Swayamsewak Sangh (HSS)

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Hindu Swayamsewak Sangh (HSS) is a right-wing Hindu non-profit organization registered in New Jersey. On its website, the group states its mission is “to organize a diverse and vibrant Hindu American society that can collectively address its challenges and contribute to the welfare of the world.” As of November 2023, HSS claims it has 220 Shakhas (branches) nationwide. HSS’s website venerates the early ideologues of Hindu nationalism, including those who praised Nazi Germany. Additionally, HSS has hosted prominent figures from the RSS, an Indian right-wing, Hindu nationalist, paramilitary volunteer organization.
Topic:
Far Right, Hindu Nationalism, and Hindu Swayamsewak Sangh (HSS)
Political Geography:
India, North America, and United States of America

4. Factsheet: Narendra Modi

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Narendra Damodardas Modi is the current Prime Minister of India. He was the Chief Minister of Gujarat during the deadly 2002 anti-Muslim pogroms in the state, and throughout his political career, he has promoted Hindu nationalist views. Under his leadership, India has experienced a rise in anti-Muslim hate crimes and hate speech, increasing polarization and violence in society, growing restrictions on the media, and the growth of Hindu nationalist groups. Critics and human rights experts have warned that under Modi’s leadership, democracy in India is under threat.
Topic:
Islamophobia, Narendra Modi, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Hindutva, and Hindu Nationalism
Political Geography:
India and Gujarat

5. Tracking workers across generations – a cohort-based analysis

Author:
Rosa Abraham
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Alongside rapid economic growth, India also saw steady de-agrarianisation of its economy in terms of contribution to GDP. In terms of employment, however, the movement out of agriculture was slower, and when they did exit, it was often a withdrawal from the workforce entirely. In general, more of the workforce are in salaried employment, however, these have filtered differently by gender, caste and religion. While cross-sectional data gives us a sense of how these structural changes affect workers at any given point in time, it cannot tell us how these play out for workers over their lifetime as well as how different generations or cohorts of workers have been affected. Here, we use seven rounds of nationally representative official data to construct cohorts who are tracked over these periods to observe employment participation and the patterns over time. We find that younger generations of women systematically less likely to be in paid employment whereas for men, after a certain age, generations look similar in terms of employment rate. Similarly, when examined from the perspective of cohorts, we find that access to salaried employment has changed by gender and caste, and increase in earnings over time over their lifecycle has slowed for certain groups.
Topic:
Women, Employment, Economic Growth, and Economic Mobility
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

6. Association between Caste and Class in India: Evolution of Caste-Class Dynamics during Economic Growth

Author:
Vaishali Kohli
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Caste and class are two major markers of social and economic stratification in India. They play a crucial role in sustaining and strengthening the process of social exclusion. It has been often expected that the process of economic growth and modernization may weaken the congruence between caste and class structures and induce social and economic mobility, thereby bringing about a change in the socio-economic environment. In this paper, we focus on the celebrated period of high economic growth in India during the previous decade to study the evolution of caste-class dynamics, to analyze the pattern of association between caste and class positions, and to examine whether this association/congruence has weakened during this period. The analysis is based on four rounds of employment-unemployment surveys of the National Sample Survey Organization covering the period 1999-2012. We construct a matrix of caste and class positions of repeated cross-sections of individuals that shows whether different caste groups are over- or under-represented in different class positions and how these representations have changed over time. We then use a multinomial logistic regression framework to capture the role of caste in explaining the conditional probability of an individual to belong to a particular class position, after controlling for other critical explanatory variables. We further examine how the explanatory role of caste has changed over time. Additionally, we explore the role of education, a crucial channel for socioeconomic mobility, in explaining the class positions of individuals belonging to different caste groups over time. Finally, we examine the impact of high economic growth in determining the class position of an individual in general, as well as for different caste groups over time. The analysis shows that caste has continued to remain an important factor in explaining class locations of individuals during the period of high economic growth. Further, the caste-class associations have continued to persist across different categories of education over time. While there has been a partial weakening of certain associations during the period, particularly for the Other Backward Castes and in some parts of the rural sector, the overall picture is more of continuity than change, with further strengthening and reinforcement of caste-class congruence along several axes. This calls into question the 2 expectations about social mobility with economic growth as well as the nature of economic growth in India.
Topic:
Development, Economic Growth, Class, Caste, Social Exclusion, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

7. What did they say? Respondent identity, question framing and the measurement of employment

Author:
Rosa Abraham, Nishat Anjum, Rahul Lahoti, and Hema Swaminathan
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
In developing countries, a precise approach to measuring women’s employment remains elusive. Emerging evidence underscores the pivotal role of survey methodology, encompassing respondent selection and question framing, in shaping the assessment of women’s employment. Drawing from two labor market experiments in rural India, this study offers insights on the influence of survey design on the measurement of women’s employment. The first experiment contrasts self-reported women’s and men’s employment figures with proxy-reported data from spouses. Women’s self-reported workforce participation surpasses proxy-reported estimates by six percentage points, while men’s estimates exhibit negligible differences. There are significant differences in the type of employment activities reported by self and proxy for both women and men. These divergences emanate from asymmetric measurement errors, stemming from gender-based norm disparities between spouses, and divergent interpretations of employment. Additionally, information asymmetry between spouses concerning women’s marginal activities and disparities in spousal characteristics contribute to these self-proxy differences. The second experiment investigates if framing of questions and recall period has an impact on reporting of labor market outcomes. We find that employing multiple questions to capture weekly employment status yields a 10-percentage-point increase in reported women’s workforce participation, but men’s participation rate decreases by six percentage points. Furthermore, when a distinct employment query is directed at each day of the preceding week as opposed to a single query for the entire week, reported women’s workforce participation increases by seven percentage points, and men’s by four percentage points.
Topic:
Development, Employment, Survey, Methods, and Gender
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

8. Jobless growth and structural transformation: Some theoretical considerations and empirical evidence from India

Author:
Zico Dasgupta and Amit Basole
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
The decoupling of output growth and employment growth, known popularly as “jobless growth” has been a problem plaguing many countries. Using cross-country data, we show that India has underperformed significantly on job creation compared to the average developing country with lower than average employment elasticities at both the aggregate level and for the non-agricultural sector. Strikingly, we find a one-for-one relationship between output growth and productivity growth in India’s non-agricultural sector, i.e. a Kaldor-Verdoorn coefficient of one. Despite this joblessness of growth, the Indian economy has experienced some structural transformation with the share of the non-agricultural sector and the share of regular wage employment rising at the expense of agriculture and self-employment. We develop a theoretical model which clarifies the relative roles of labour demand and labour supply in determining the output-employment relationship. In this model, the Indian case of some structural transformation even with jobless growth emerges as one case among four possible cases (growth with or without jobs / structural change or no structural change). We conclude with some policy implications.
Topic:
Employment, Economic Growth, Gender, Structural Transformation, and Jobless Growth
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

9. Telephone surveys for data collection – some reflections

Author:
Rosa Abraham and Mridhula Mohan
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Phone-based surveys have emerged as important survey tool with their use increasing particularly during the pandemic-induced lockdowns. However, the use of phone-based surveys comes with concerns around sampling and reporting – the former refers to issues in terms of reaching the intended respondents and adequate representation of different groups while the latter relates to the quality of data collected. Based on a phone-survey of a pre-existing cross-section of households in Karnataka and Rajasthan conducted during the lockdowns of 2020, this paper looks at how sampling and reporting issues play out especially with regard to speaking to women. Access to women, via phone surveys, is limited since most women do not have their own phone, and even if they are reached, they may not have the freedom to respond to all questions asked. We recommend a detailed protocol with multiple callbacks and rescheduling of calls that reduce sampling errors and allow for greater reach of women respondents and minimise discretionary decisions from the enumerators . We also recommend a set of questions to enumerators to help reflect on the quality of data collected. While phone surveys cannot replace in-person surveys, in the event they are used, a well designed protocol along with the use of meta and para data can go a long way in enhancing the quality and reliabilty of the data.
Topic:
Women, Employment, Survey, Methods, and Data Collection
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

10. The Unhappy Marriage of Women’s Work and Spousal Violence in India

Author:
Vijayshree Jayaraman
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Gender-based violence against women is a public health crisis that highlights the persistent gender inequalities present in our society. Informed by theories in several disciplines, spousal violence can be modelled as a multi-faceted phenomenon arising from the intersection of many factors, that may either be a risk or buffer factors. This papers tries to understand if a women’s employment is a risk or buffer factor for spousal violence. We use the NFHS 4 data-set and develop linear probability models to understand the different channels through which employment may change the likelihood of violence. We find that, being employed makes a woman more vulnerable to spousal violence, particularly if the woman earns more than the husband. Adding to that, we find evidence suggesting ‘female guilt’ present in working wives, where they justify spousal violence especially if ‘the wife is unfaithful’. We argue the need to account for different form of violence while studying spousal violence, which has not been studied previously in the literature and present results for the same.
Topic:
Women, Employment, Gender Based Violence, Domestic Violence, and Bargaining
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

11. Estimating the productivity gap between organised and unorganised small-scale units in India’s manufacturing sector

Author:
Amit Basole, Dimple Chopde, and Paaritosh Nath
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Small manufacturing firms are considered to be engines of growth and job creation. While most research on small firms focuses on formal sector units, in India informal sector units far outnumber the formal. This is true even for manufacturing units employing 5 to 49 workers, which constitute only 5% of all unorganised units, but in absolute numbers are nine times more numerous than organised units in the same size class. Such firms have the potential to contribute to structural transformation but their capacities vis-a-vis formal firms are not well understood. To address this, we create a unit-level dataset combining Annual Survey of Industries data for organised (formal) units with the National Sample Survey data on unorganised (informal) units. We also discuss problems involved in this exercise and some ways to deal with them. We find that matching organised and unorganised units on observable characteristics reduces the labour productivity differences between them to around 25 percent. We discuss some policy implications of our results.
Topic:
Employment, Manufacturing, Productivity, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

12. Labour Market Flows and Gender Differentials in Urban Unemployment Over the Pandemic

Author:
Paaritosh Nath
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Utilising data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey, we estimate quarterly changes in urban labour market flows over the period 2018 to 2022 and the impact on unemployment rates for men and women. Our analysis provides non-intuitive explanations for established findings as well as pointing out important questions for further study. Both men and women’s unemployment rates have reduced in 2022 compared to 2018, showing rapid reductions following the high levels reached during the lockdown. Women’s unemployment rates have consistently been higher than men throughout this period. The gap between men and women’s unemployment rates reduced during the lockdown, but have shown signs of increasing since 2021, even as unemployment rates have fallen. For women, flows from the labour force to non-participation play a larger role in explaining changes in unemployment rates as compared to men. Flows from the labour force to non-participation, however, have reduced since the pandemic, providing an explanation as to why labour force participation rates have increased, namely, women staying for longer in the labour force rather than more women entering it. Despite rising labour force participation rates, the gender gap in unemployment rates have risen, in contrast to developed economies.
Topic:
Urban, Unemployment, COVID-19, Labor Market, and Gender
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Global Focus

13. FACTORING THE SMART POWER IN THE INDIA-EUROPEAN UNION ENGAGEMENTS: A SCOPING REVIEW

Author:
Nippun Gupta, Bawa Singh, Aslam Khan, and Jaspal Kaur
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
Power is a critical factor in several types of diplomacy. India-EU relations are a classic case of how changing geopolitics prompted diplomatic acumen. This scoping review assesses the changing relations of both partners as a manifestation of Smart Power. The dynamic relations from normative-based to pragmatic and inclusive interests based are evaluated. Their value-based relations are put under international relations theories. Their changing factors of cooperation are used to justify their smart diplomacy, where contemporary relations are less likely to be affected by multilateral interests. To solidify claims of smart power in their relations, the recent TRIPS waiver schism illuminated health diplomacy between the two regions. This health diplomacy discourse promotes smart power diplomacy between India and the EU, where new avenues of cooperation emerge despite pandemic disagreements. The article explores how hybrid power is better than soft and hard power in silos by systematically searching and selecting the existing knowledge in the contemporary context.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Health, Bilateral Relations, European Union, Soft Power, Hard Power, and Smart Power
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, and India

14. The Role of Export Incentives and Bank Credit on the Export Survival of Firms in India During COVID-19

Author:
Radeef Chundakkadan, Subash Sasidharan, and Ketan Reddy
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
The aim of this study is threefold. First, we analyse the relationship between export incentives on firm survival during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) crisis; second, we explore the nexus between bank dependency and survival in the export market; and finally, we test the complementarity and substitutability effect of export incentives and bank dependency on export market survival. We use firm-level information on Indian firms from 2016 to 2022, covering 4 years of the pre-pandemic period and 2 years of the post-pandemic period. We find that both export incentives and bank dependency improve the probability of export market survival in the post-pandemic period. These results are applicable to both the manufacturing and services sector, stand-alone firms, and business group affiliates. Our results remain robust while employing alternative proxies for the primary variable of interest and different methodologies.
Topic:
Business, Banks, Exports, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

15. Industry Agglomeration, Urban Amenities, and Regional Development in India

Author:
Subash Sasidharan and Shandre Mugan Thangavelu
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Industrial agglomeration is an important component to create efficiency and externalities for industrial growth and competitiveness for the Indian economy. In this paper, we examine the spatial location of Indian firms and industry agglomeration at district and township level for the Indian economy. Particularly, we examine the impact of urban amenities in driving the industrial agglomeration in the Indian economy using firm-level data. We carefully control for township-level urban amenities, as well as firm level characteristics in affecting the industry agglomeration. As opposed to previous state- and district-level studies, we examine the impact of urban amenities at a more disaggregated township level for 2011. The study also examines the impact of urban amenities on manufacturing, as well as the services sector. The empirical analysis findings indicate a positive correlation between town-level disparities in industry agglomeration and various amenities, including education, healthcare, energy, transportation, finance, and cultural resources. These results remain consistent when considering alternative measures of agglomeration and conducting sub-sample analyses.
Topic:
Development, Manufacturing, Services, and Industry
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

16. Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future in Turkey and India, and Iran and Russia

Author:
Hugh Sandeman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
The institutions and practices necessary for open and fair competition for political power are eroding across the world. In some countries, such as Turkey and India, the democratic dividend of electoral competition has been steadily undermined by majoritarian autocrats who have proved adept in campaigning for office and winning elections. In others, such as Russia and Iran, political leaders have marginalised or suppressed electoral processes, reducing them to closely managed performances that seek to demonstrate public consent. At least some traces of the mechanisms of electoral competition often remain in place, however, even where genuine public consent has been almost extinguished. This leaves open the possibility that the trend away from competitive electoral politics could be at least partially reversed in future, in the context of political succession or the electoral defeat of incumbents. In June 2023, LSE IDEAS brought together experts from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and other institutions to examine the potential for restoring the democratic dividend of competitive politics in four major countries. Turkey and India were selected for their timeliness—national parliamentary and presidential elections were held in Turkey in May 2023, and national parliamentary elections are due in India in April 2024—and for their similarities: both political systems are characterised by powerful elected leaders with a strong record of performance in national elections, each backed by large political parties based on an appeal to national and religious identity. Iran and Russia were chosen as examples of two states where competitive electoral politics had been temporarily enabled by significant political change—respectively, an impasse in Iran’s theocracy in the 1990s, and the end of the Soviet Union—only to be undermined by the reassertion of autocratic power. Two assumptions underlay the planning of this discussion on ‘Restoring Competitive Politics: Electoral Contestation and the Future’. The first is that the characterisation of political systems as either democratic or autocratic provides an insufficient basis for explaining many differences in the workings of political institutions, or for guiding policy. The second assumption is that while certain institutions and practices appear to be essential to maintaining open competition for political power—including for example, freedom and diversity of comment in major channels of communication like broadcast television, radio, newspapers, and social media—there is no useful empirical example or theoretical formulation of an ideal or perfect democratic political system. The exclusion from the discussion of countries with longer established forms of competitive politics, such as the United States or the United Kingdom, was not intended to suggest an implicit comparison with ideal types of functioning democracies. On the contrary, there are grounds for concern about the maintenance of open competition for political power in every country professing to be a democracy. As David Runciman has said of the future of democratic practices: ‘The question for the twenty-first century is how long we can persist with institutional arrangements we have grown so used to trusting, that we no longer notice when they have ceased to work.’ He warns that ‘democracy could fail while remaining intact’.
Topic:
Elections, Political stability, Autocracy, and Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Eurasia, Turkey, Middle East, India, and Asia

17. Stabilizing the Border: A Possible Way Ahead in the Post-Galwan Situation

Author:
Vijay Gokhale
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
An abnormal situation continues to prevail along the India-China Line of Actual Control (LAC) three years after the Galwan valley incident despite bilateral talks to resolve the matter. Although progress is being made, the force levels on both sides and the close proximity in which they are deployed increase the chances of a deadly mishap or an unintended encounter. Even after a mutually satisfactory resolution is achieved, it may still take several months to build back a broad political understanding at the state-to-state level and reverse the erosion in trust. This paper examines why the existing agreements and measures to preserve peace and tranquility along the LAC were not entirely successful in mitigating the military face-offs between the two sides since 2013, including in the Galwan valley in 2020. It also explores whether the three-stage formula1 that is being talked of is a way of resolving the issue—disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction2 of forces—especially the de-induction of forces, could practically work given the absence of trust as well as the geographical and climatic conditions in which the two sides operate. The paper concludes that unless political trust exists, the de-induction of forces may not be achievable. India should be ready for a prolonged state of military preparedness by establishing a credible deterrence along the LAC and adequate reserves in the rear to respond to fresh aggression, while simultaneously engaging China to negotiate a modus vivendi in the border areas. Specific options both on negotiating a new balance with China and building deterrence are suggested. The first section of the paper looks at ways in which both sides created the building blocks of border management in the 1990s. The objective is to determine which elements succeeded in achieving peace and tranquility and why this framework has shown stress in more recent times. This section highlights that the border management framework, as originally envisaged, encompassed immediate measures to both stave off unintended conflict and longer-term ways and means to maintain peace and tranquility along the entire border region through mutual force reduction. It explores the possible reasons as to why the longer-term objective of mutual force reduction was not pursued. The paper concludes that peace and tranquility could not be sustainably maintained because the focus was on short-term management of situations to the detriment of long-term measures that would reduce the risks. The second section of the paper looks at how both sides might deal with border stabilization in the post-2020 scenario and, more specifically, whether mutual reduction of forces is still a feasible option. It seeks to draw lessons from the Sino-Russian experience in this regard, which shows that mutual force reduction happens when state-to-state engagement deepens and both sides feel comfortable with the level of trust and their own capacity for deterrence. The paper concludes that political trust is a prerequisite for meaningful mutual de-induction of forces. Presently, such conditions do not exist in the India-China context. This section of the paper also looks at how the growing infrastructure gap between India and China in the border areas since 2000 also makes it difficult for the two countries to replicate the Sino-Russian model. The final section of the paper looks at the options that might be available to India to build back a framework for peace and tranquility along the border areas. It also outlines the actions that India might consider adopting unilaterally as well as in the negotiations with China with the objective of creating the conditions for restoration of peace and tranquility in the border region. It suggests a three-pronged approach of negotiating with China to stabilize the border region, building deterrence on the LAC, and holding adequate reserves in the rear.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Political stability, and Borders
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, and India

18. Mapping the Indian Ocean Region

Author:
Darshana M. Baruah, Nitya Labh, and Jessica Greely
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The Indian Ocean region has been an important trade arena for centuries. Today, it remains critical to the security and stability of shipping lanes and trade routes, accounting for over one-third of the world’s bulk cargo traffic and two-thirds of the world’s oil shipments and ensuring global access to food, precious metals, and energy resources.1 Stretching from Africa’s eastern coast to Australia’s western coast, the region is home to thirty-three nations and 2.9 billion people. Given the region’s importance, many countries around the world work with regional partners to maintain open access to the Indian Ocean’s critical waterways and natural resources. For decades, the Indian Ocean region has been erroneously studied through the continental divisions of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. But to understand the true importance and strategic advantages of the region, it must be viewed as one continuous theater. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Indian Ocean Strategic Map does just that.2 Developed by Carnegie’s Indian Ocean Initiative, the map provides a coherent, continuous, and data-driven understanding of the players, security challenges, and other factors that shape the region (see figure 1). The first of its kind, it shows how the Indian Ocean’s economic, political, military, and geographic features interact to create a single geopolitical arena. This paper complements the map, further analyzing the areas of interest and contextualizing them within the current geopolitical environment. The first section summarizes the key players, both traditional and emerging, in the region. The second section examines the evolving security situation, including sovereignty disputes, climate impacts, illegal fishing, search and rescue zones, and choke points. The third section reviews the region’s economics, trade patterns, and oil flows. The fourth section assesses how regional organizations and multilateral partnerships enforce maritime laws and craft protocols.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Geopolitics, Economy, Strategic Competition, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, Australia, and Oceania

19. Winding Up of State Enterprises in India: A Case Study of Five Enterprises Under the Department of Heavy Industry

Author:
Rajan Katoch and Sunil Bahri
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Why is it so easy to create a public sector enterprise but so difficult to wind one up, even when precious resources of the state with huge opportunity costs are regularly appropriated for entities that no longer serve any public purpose? Usually, it is due to a lack of political will arising out of a perhaps overblown fear of consequences of taking what are perceived to be “harsh” steps. It is also often due to an abundance of caution in the bureaucracy that has to implement these steps. There are reasons for this reluctance. Bureaucracy has learned from previous attempts at winding up state enterprises that such exercises tend to ruffle vested interests, attract political and judicial ire, and sometimes invite the unwelcome attention of investigative agencies. Closing down state enterprises has always been notoriously difficult. It requires the rare circumstance of all the stakeholders being in alignment with the objective at the same time for progress to be made. A great opportunity for overcoming these difficulties arose in 2014, when there was a rare and favorable confluence of circumstances and people in government, notably at the political level and in the Department of Heavy Industry (DHI), Government of India. A new government had assumed power with a reforming zeal, as new governments often have. In the department, we (Sunil Bahri as the financial adviser and Rajan Katoch as the secretary of the department) happened to be thrown together as a new leadership team. Both students of economics, we understood the administrative and economic rationale for closure of sick enterprises and appreciated the opportunity for us to make a signal contribution to better governance and public welfare. We intended to make all-out efforts to ensure that the opportunity was grasped and a sustainable outcome achieved within the brief tenure of two years that we had with the department. This is the story of those efforts.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Economic Growth, Public Sector, and State-Owned Enterprises
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

20. Barriers or catalysts? Traditional institutions and social mobility in rural India

Author:
Vegard Iversen, Anustup Kundu, Rahul Lahoti, and Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We examine how village-level social group dominance affects the educational and occupational mobility of minority and other social groups in rural India across multiple generations. We distinguish between upper caste and own-group dominance and examine the mechanisms underpinning inequality in mobility outcomes. We find inequality in upward educational mobility to have significantly narrowed over time, with Scheduled Castes doing better in upper caste- and own-dominated villages, while Scheduled Tribes and Muslims do worse in own-dominated villages. In contrast, for occupational mobility we find no evidence of minority groups catching up with upper castes; Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes are particularly disadvantaged, but Scheduled Castes, again, do comparatively better in their own-dominated villages. Exploring the mechanisms that explain the relationships between land dominance regimes and mobility, we find that a combination of agroecological and natural resource base and social cohesion of villages underpins the differences observed more than public goods provision. Our findings suggest a new pattern of inequality where historically disadvantaged groups appear less able to convert educational gains into labour market and occupational progress.
Topic:
Education, Inequality, Rural, Social Mobility, and Traditional Institutions
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

21. Degrees of disadvantage

Author:
Chinmayi Srikanth
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study is positioned in two strands of literature—intersectionality and social mobility. It is the first to measure (dis)advantage at the individual level as an outcome of the intersectionality of identities and parental circumstances. By linking circumstances at the parental level with (dis)advantage at the individual level, this study uses fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) in an unprecedented application, i.e. to study social mobility or generational persistence. By accounting for intersectional ascribed identities, this study is also the first to analyse social mobility for the intersectionality of caste, religion, and gender identities. Using data from the India Human Development Survey 2011–12, the study finds that, in a given generation, Hindu women can observe high outcomes only if they are born into advantageous parental circumstances. This is further tempered by their position in the social hierarchy. For men, advantageous circumstances are not a necessary precondition for upward mobility. By building epistemological arguments, this paper also makes a contribution by being the first to contend that fsQCA is the ideal method to study overdeterministic social science phenomena.
Topic:
Development, Women, Inequality, Identity, and Social Mobility
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

22. Poverty of Circumstances and Poverty of Opportunity

Author:
Anirudh Krishna and Sujeet Kumar
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Ordinary people in rural Bihar and in Patna and Delhi have virtually no opportunity to be tested for a hidden talent, be it for athletics or singing or chess or mathematics or art. Not one of more than 800 young people we interviewed has ever competed at the national, state or district level in any of eight activities of different kinds. Alternative careers pass them by. Future champions can remain unidentified and unrewarded. Something better is necessary to make equality of opportunity less a slogan and more a reality. Examples from across the world show what can be done.
Topic:
Poverty, Economic Inequality, and Opportunity
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

23. Cooperative Federalism in India: Statutory Regulatory Authorities and the Federal System in India

Author:
K. P. Krishnan, Amrita Pillai, and Karan Gulati
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Since the 1990s, there has been a marked expansion of the regulatory state in India. Statutory Regulatory Authorities (SRAs) are empowered to create and enforce regulations in their respective fields and often have the authority to issue licenses, conduct inspections, and take enforcement action against individuals or organisations that violate their regulations. This essay recognises the twin-deficit issue with SRAs in India. It focuses on the federal deficit issue and resists exploring the more obvious democratic deficit in them. Our analysis shows that over the twenty-three-year period between 1999 and 2022, the Rajya Sabha (Council of States) has reviewed 4 regulations by SRAs. For context, the securities regulator has issued 661 regulations since its inception in 1992. Such a federal deficit of a lack of State representation disallows decentralisation and restricts means for individuals and communities to have a greater say in the decisions that affect their lives.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Deficit, Domestic Policy, and Cooperative Federalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

24. Cooperative Federalism in India: Resetting the Fiscal Architecture: Lessons for India

Author:
Kandarp Patel and Anoop Singh
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic brought significant challenges to public finances, raising global debt to record-high levels and necessitating the suspension of fiscal rules across the globe. As we approach the aftermath of the pandemic, the challenge is to reset the pillars of the fiscal architecture and better manage public finances across all levels of government—as the lynchpin of any successful growth strategy in a post-pandemic world. This situation offers an opportunity to rethink fiscal rules and make fiscal policy more agile in responding to crises, without undermining fiscal sustainability. A risk-based medium-term fiscal framework that combines standards, rules, and strengthened institutions would strike a better balance between flexibility and credibility. Overall, for India to achieve its full potential for economic growth and development, it needs to improve the quality and efficiency of public spending and financial management across all levels of government. In doing this, India should consider moving toward a new principle-based fiscal strategy, complemented with public financial management reforms and setting up an independent fiscal institution. This process will need to be undertaken in close collaboration with the States.
Topic:
Finance, Economic Growth, COVID-19, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

25. Cooperative Federalism in India: Towards an Inter-State Migration Council

Author:
Chinmay Tumbe
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Migration in India has tended to create friction—between the Union government and State governments, and between different State governments. This chapter reviews the nature of migration in India and its relationship with nativist sentiments and political conflicts. It argues for the establishment of an inter-State migration council, either nested within the existing framework of the Inter-State Council or led by the Ministry of Labour and Employment, that would uphold the constitutional provisions on mobility, lead on the collection and dissemination of statistics on inter-State migration, promote the portability of social security benefits, and work towards resolving migration-related disputes in the federal system
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Employment, and Cooperative Federalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

26. Cooperative Federalism in India: Institutions of Political Migration: The Office of the Governor

Author:
Chakshu Roy and M. R. Madhavan
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Governors occupy a critical position in India’s constitutional framework as a critical mechanism through which tensions between the central and state governments can be negotiated and managed. In fact, their powers have grown over time as other institutions intended to foster centre-state cooperation and coordination have atrophied. This chapter documents the de jure powers and de facto workings of the office of the Governor since Independence in 1947. It reveals the continuing contestation over Governors’ independent decision-making, a matter which has been debated since the time of the Constituent Assembly. The unresolved matter of how Governors can independently exercise their discretion without acting, or being seeing to act, merely as instruments of the centre remains a vexed issue in the contemporary era.
Topic:
Migration, Institutions, Local Government, and Cooperative Federalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

27. Cooperative Federalism in India: The Adjudication of Federal Disputes

Author:
Raeesa Vakil
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Indian Supreme Court has the jurisdiction to adjudicate federal disputes, i.e. disputes between states, or between the centre and states. This jurisdiction has been rarely invoked – until recently. A group of new cases will require judges to re-examine doctrines that they have evolved to limit their own ability to adjudicate federal conflict, and consequently, will require the court to re-evaluate its own function within Indian federalism.
Topic:
Supreme Court, Disputes, and Cooperative Federalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

28. Cooperative Federalism in India: Parallel Streams: Political Federalism and Economic Integration in India

Author:
Niranjan Rajadhyaksha and Prakhar Misra
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Economic integration is an important component of the design of political federations, a fact that was evident to the framers of the Indian constitution, but has been given inadequate attention in much of the subsequent literature on Indian federalism. In this paper, we examine the slow progress of economic integration in India, revisit the policy debates on the need for fewer barriers on interstate trade, and end with a set of unfulfilled recommendations to further strengthen cooperative federalism in India.
Topic:
Constitution, Economic Integration, and Cooperative Federalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

29. Cooperative Federalism in India: The Goods and Services Tax Council: Dialectics and Design

Author:
Haseeb A. Drabu
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This paper explores the origins of the GST Council, examines its impacts on federalism in India, and considers the road ahead for the institution. It also addresses key arguments that have been put forth about the design and functioning of the Council. The GST Council, despite its shortccomings, has the potential to evolve as the centrepiece of a new federal architecture in India. It has changed the institutional architecture of fiscal federalism in India and can potentially change the dynamics of Centre-state relations. However, India’s evolving political economy threatens to derail the federal compact that underlay its formation.
Topic:
Political Economy, Tax Systems, Domestic Policy, and Cooperative Federalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

30. Cooperative Federalism in Indi: Federal Aspects of India's Emerging Internal Migration Governance Frameworks

Author:
Mukta Naik
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The exodus of millions of migrants during the 2020 Covid lockdowns resulted in an uptick in migrant-inclusive policy initiatives. Leaning on concepts developed in migration studies and organizational theory, this paper analyses emergent policy responses with a focus on the role of government. Without a coherent and explicit approach to governing migration from the Centre, State governments have actively worked towards improving governance responses to migrants. The location of initiatives outside of the nodal State labour department, convergence between departments and bilateral arrangements between States demonstrate how horizontal and vertical boundaries within the governance system were bridged innovatively by temporary orders, enterprising bureaucrats, state-society collaborations and by leveraging hitherto under-utilized provisions in existing schemes. The paper highlights migration governance as an example where the rearrangement of federal relationships under crisis conditions has offered new policy imaginations. A nascent transition away from a centralist model of migration governance has emerged, which can be accelerated and sustained by institutionalizing successful initiatives, including boundary-spanning mechanisms.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Governance, and Cooperative Federalism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

31. Cooperative Federalism in Indi: The Rise and Resilience of Fiscal Transfers Amidst Party System Change

Author:
Suyash Rai and Milan Vaishnav
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Has political centralization induced fiscal centralization in India? This paper examines this question through an institutional analysis of India’s Finance Commission, a constitutional body tasked with determining fiscal transfers from the Union government to the States, and through an analysis of Union government incentives to make discretionary transfers under various schemes. It finds no simple correspondence between political centralization and fiscal devolution. In recent years, despite the presence of a dominant party and considerable centralization of power, fiscal transfers from the Centre to the States have not undergone the sharp reversal that many expected. We argue that a nuanced understanding of the Finance Commission’s unique position is central to understanding India’s institutional landscape more generally. We also argue that understanding the interplay between political contestations and the pursuit of efficiency in the fiscal relations between the Union government and the sub-national governments can help shed new light on how centre-state relations are evolving.
Topic:
Resilience, Cooperative Federalism, and Fiscal Transfers
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

32. India’s Regulatory Shift: An Examination of Five Agencies of the Post- Liberalisation Era

Author:
Arkaja Singh
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This paper explores the design of Indian regulatory agencies established post-liberalisation from an administrative perspective. Regulatory agencies were set up to replace state inefficiencies, and to discipline profligate state agencies, even as much as they were a response to state-market reorganisations and the challenge of privatization. Regulation provided an opportunity for upper levels of the Indian bureaucratic state to recast their power, with the idea that it would provide a framework for economic rationality, independence and technical specialization to take centre-stage. In actual practice however, the design of each of the regulatory agencies is shaped largely by pre-existing legal frameworks and institutions, and the agencies have remained quite tied in with their counterpart departments and on retired bureaucrats. However, in spite of these limitations, these agencies have some common features imbued by legislative mandate and organisational design which are unique in the context of the Indian state. They have focus and stability, a degree of functional independence, and most importantly, a concentration of power, which enables them to think through and implement complex policy transitions from multi-year and context-specific perspectives. The paper builds on learnings from a series of conversations with regulatory agency chairpersons in order to identify what regulatory governance is, in terms of the powers and mandate of the regulatory agencies and what makes them distinctive from the rest of public administration.
Topic:
Markets, Governance, Regulation, Bureaucracy, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

33. Organisation Through Neglect: Understanding Field Administration in India

Author:
Rashmi Sharma
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This paper analyses the structure and processes of field administration in India and matches these with the outcomes on the ground. It highlights features of the administrative structure, human resources, and organisational culture that result in the sub-optimal delivery of social services and policy implementation. Recognizing the importance of historical antecedents, the paper provides a brief account of how field administration has developed over time. Subsequently, it presents the findings of a case study of a district situated in Madhya Pradesh. This is followed by a delineation of the key areas for reform and some possible strategies, though these need to be formulated after rigorous debate. The paper traces the roots of the present-day field administration to the colonial era, when the existing decentralised and diffused field administration system was changed to achieve the government’s goals to maximise revenue from land and forests and maintain order. The district became the key administrative unit in the field, and the district collector (DC) the overall administrative head. After Independence, government goals shifted dramatically, and socio-economic development became a central concern. However, the basic administrative structure was retained, while several departmentalorganisations were added.
Topic:
Governance, Colonialism, Human Resources, and Administration
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

34. Frontline Functionaries in India: The Absent Policy

Author:
Rashmi Sharma
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In the context of a high level of dissatisfaction with the delivery of government services in India, this paper traces the evolution of policy regarding key actors in this process— frontline functionaries or street-level bureaucrats. Frontline functionaries form a special subset of the bureaucracy as they come in close contact with citizens, and negotiate government policy with specific citizen needs. The paper provides a historical background illustrating the continuity of colonial era ideas with the current policy regarding frontline functionaries, and also examines it against broader developments in policy and the administrative structure. The policy regarding frontline functionaries is scrutinised against their three roles: as government employees, as professionals or skilled workers in specific fields, and as workers serving the community. The paper shows that frontline functionaries, only loosely connected to the government before colonization, subsequently became government employees, as the government sought to increase the efficiency of revenue collection from land and forests, and to maintain order. Because the colonial government minimized administrative costs, it paid frontline functionaries very poorly, placed them near the bottom of an extremely hierarchical bureaucratic structure and provided them with minimal promotion avenues. Frontline functionaries were not considered worthy of serious responsibility, expected to follow orders, had little education and training and were treated harshly by senior officials. Consequently, their performance was unsatisfactory. They were often corrupt and exploited the community.
Topic:
Government, Decolonization, and Bureaucracy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

35. Regulating Air Quality at an Airshed Level in India

Author:
Shibani Ghosh, Bhargav Krishna, and Abinaya Sekar
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Air pollution is a pan-India problem, and whether viewed in terms of pollution sources or exposure, there is no reason to continue an urban-focus in air pollution mitigation measures. It is imperative for air quality governance in India to transition from a city-centric approach to an airshed approach. As resources to address the pollution crisis are scarce, a coordinated effort across a region, that supports consistent and uniform measures against similar pollution sources, is likely to lead to greater gains in terms of air quality. In this Paper, we unpack some of the key issues relating to airshed-level governance and what is required to make that transition in India. The current regulatory set-up is designed to primarily focus on point sources, and the jurisdictional mandate of regulatory bodies aligns with state or city boundaries. To effectively regulate pollution and reduce pollution exposure, changes need to be introduced to this regulatory architecture, making it adopt an airshed-level approach. To begin with, airsheds have to be demarcated based on several criteria. However, there is sufficient literature available to initiate necessary reform measures, and the transition to an airshed or regional approach is not contingent on perfect airshed demarcation. We propose that airsheds be notified under the Air Act by the State Governments as ‘air pollution control areas’, and the Union Government may constitute, through notification, multi-stakeholder institutions for each airshed under the EP Act. We have outlined the composition of such an institution, its powers, roles, and responsibilities. It will be a focal point for standard setting, policy guidance, planning and knowledge generation for the airshed, while not being involved in enforcement. A key ingredient for successful airshed-level governance is effective accountability mechanisms that ensure compliance by actors across the region. We envisage a role for the Union Government under the EP Act as well as for the National Green Tribunal in this regard.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Domestic Policy, and Air Pollution
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

36. A Health-Centred Framework for Establishing Ambient Air Quality Standards

Author:
Bhargav Krishna and Abinaya Sekar
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Air quality standards are primarily health-based standards that define the ambient concentration of air pollution to which the public can be exposed without suffering harm to their health. In India, the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) is tasked with setting the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) under the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act of 1981. The NAAQS were first established in 1982 for four pollutants (suspended particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide) and subsequently revised in 1994 and 1998 to include several more. The current iteration of the NAAQS were notified in 2009 and were aligned with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) interim air quality guidelines. The most recent revision of the WHO guidelines for ambient air quality in September 2021 rendered the NAAQS as substantially weaker in comparison. The alignment of the NAAQS with these global guidelines will require integration of the wealth of new health data generated since 2009 on the deleterious effects of air pollution on health both locally and globally. The 2009 NAAQS revisions were notified through the Gazette of India with no contextual information provided on the composition of the committee tasked with the revisions, or on the kind of data or information used by the committee to draw its conclusions on the acceptable levels of exposure to various pollutants. In August 2021, the CPCB convened a committee to review and update the NAAQS. The committee’s wide-ranging remit includes an assessment of the health risks of air pollution, establishing guidelines for monitoring, identifying non-attainment areas, and revising the Air Quality Index (AQI) through which health risks are communicated to the public.
Topic:
Regulation, Public Health, and Air Pollution
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

37. Understanding Enablers and Barriers to Social Protection of Sanitation Workers

Author:
Anju Dwivedi, Abhinav Kumar, and Shubhagato Dasgupta
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
There has been a strong focus on improving the sanitation situation in the last decade in India due to the Government of India’s flagship program called Swachh Bharat Mission. In the last decade, the country witnessed an increase in the number of toilets, Sewer Treatment Plants and Faecal Sludge Treatment plants. The demand for sanitation services has spotlighted the issue of sanitation workers too. Sanitation workers are vital to the provision of safe sanitation for all the residents in the city. However, hazardous work conditions and low social status, coupled with discrimination, long working hours, and lack of social protection, accentuate their vulnerabilities. Recognizing the high level of social and economic vulnerability and discrimination faced by sanitation workers, the Government of India (GoI) and several state governments have initiated many programs and schemes, including social protection measures for Sanitation workers. The main objective of the research is to identify the enablers and barriers to availing social protection benefits (in the form of healthcare, insurance, pensions, and allowances) for sanitation workers. The study examines the social protection coverage of formal and informal sanitation workers in Dhenkanal, Odisha. Semi-structured interviews with Sanitation workers employed with ULB, private contractors and Area Level Federation were conducted to understand the challenges faced by Sanitation workers in accessing social protection. In addition, key informant interviews were also carried out with leaders from employee unions of sanitation workers, ULB officials, and other stakeholders, including private contractors. The study recognizes enablers such as a favourable policy environment, capacity enhancement, collaboration with other stakeholders, and barriers like low awareness, inadequate capacities, and lack of institutional convergence mechanisms to improve socioeconomic well-being and promote sanitation workers’ safety, dignity, and social protection. This study highlights the disparity in working conditions and employment benefits received by regular and contractual sanitation workers, the need for creating a formal grievance redressal mechanism and undertaking measures to build the capacity of sanitation workers. The report presents key recommendations emerging from the study, such as greater involvement of employee unions, convergence with other departments providing welfare benefits to sanitation workers, improving grievance redressal mechanisms, and creating more awareness and information dissemination to sanitation workers on different social protection measures.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Protection, and Sanitation Workers
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

38. Gender and Just Transition: Envisioning a Gender-transformative Pathway to Energy Transition in India’s Coal States

Author:
Suravee Nayak and Ashwini K. Swain
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Entrenched gender biases and injustices in the coal political economy cannot be wished away with the ongoing shift from coal to renewable energy. Rather, the energy transition must seek to unwind these entrenched patterns in the 20th century energy system while creating an equal role for and participation of women in the 21st century energy system. To do so, just transition planning must proactively engage with gender questions in coal communities and envision a gender-transformative pathway to the transition in India’s coal states. Analysing the forms of exclusions faced by women in coal economies, this brief argues that women face four structural barriers – entry barrier, distribution barrier, wage barrier and representation barrier – that are consequential for their social and economic status and agency. The combined effects of these barriers, the masculine nature of the coal industry and existing social norms marginalise women in India’s coal communities and confines them to three observed patterns of engagement: 1) social reproductive labour, 2) informal casual labour and coal scavenging, and 3) formal but menial labour in coal mines. The ongoing shifts in our energy foundations offer an opportunity to unwind the gender inequities and injustices of the coal economy and envision a gender equal energy future. In this direction, the brief suggests four immediate steps to engage with the gender question as part of just transition planning. Recognise women labour force in the coal economy through an intersectionality-informed analytical and assessment framework. Ensure women’s representation in just transition planning at different tiers of governance and decision making. Promote gender inclusive economic diversification in coal regions, with particular attention to women- centric and women-led economic opportunities. Treat women as change agents in the energy transition harnessing their potential role in smoothening the disruptions of the transition.
Topic:
Political Economy, Women, Coal, Inclusion, Gender, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

39. Activating Spaces, Scaling Up Voices: Community-based Monitoring and Planning of Health Services in Maharashtra, India

Author:
Abhay Shukla, Shweta Marathe, Deepali Yakkundi, Trupti Malti, and Jonathan Fox
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Accountability Research Center (ARC), American University
Abstract:
From 2007, the Indian government’s National Health Mission (NHM) supported civil society networks to carry out large-scale participatory monitoring to improve health service access and quality under the Community-based Monitoring and Planning (CBMP) program. In the state of Maharashtra, this social accountability initiative endured more than a decade and a half, despite constraints and unpredictable government funding. The CBMP program in Maharashtra supported state-wide civil society networks to enable active citizen participation in health oversight committees. It was rooted in a broad network of diverse community-based organizations and civil society organizations that work with socially excluded communities, led by Support for Advocacy and Training to Health Initiatives (SATHI). The CBMP network combined many social accountability tools into a multilevel strategy, using community assessments of health services and local meetings with clinic staff to inform problem-solving efforts at local, district, and state levels of the health system. This government-funded civil society initiative worked with local officials to convene public dialogues and to activate previously dormant official oversight bodies, animated by a parallel network of autonomous monitoring committees. This Working Paper presents SATHI’s analysis of the CBMP program’s strategy and institutional dynamics, and documents its lasting effects on two participatory oversight institutions: Village Health, Sanitation, and Nutrition Committees (VHSNCs)—part of local government, and Rogi Kalyan Samitis (Patient Welfare Committees)—part of the health system. Field research, carried out shortly before the pandemic, compared the activation of these hybrid oversight bodies in areas with and without a legacy of intensive CBMP action. Key findings include: Official participatory spaces for citizen engagement with the health system were much more active in districts where CBMP networks had intensively promoted grassroots capacity for voice. Frontline health system responsiveness to issues that could be addressed locally—identified as ‘CBMP-sensitive’—was very high. But the health system’s degree of responsiveness to problem-solving efforts decreased at higher levels. The period of intensive CBMP effort to build grassroots awareness and capacity was limited to six years. Nevertheless, that effort had lasting effects on the levels of activity of local hybrid health oversight bodies. The pandemic revealed additional evidence of the medium-term survival and institutional impact of CBMP-enabled social networks.
Topic:
Civil Society, Health, Governance, Accountability, Community, Monitoring, Planning, Monitoring, and and Evaluation (PME)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

40. Caste and Space in Indian Cities

Author:
Vamsi Vakulabharanam and Sripad Motiram
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the interaction between caste relations and city space, and its impact on economic development in Indian cities. Much of the literature on caste has focused on rural India, although there is a recent and growing literature that examines caste and caste-based discrimination in cities. We focus on this strand, particularly, studies that have examined caste-based residential segregation in cities. Recent studies have argued that Indian cities are highly segregated along caste lines. Using a socio-spatial methodology, and data from a spatially representative survey that we specially designed to uniquely explore city spaces, we too establish that there is high segregation at the smallest residential spatial scale. However, as expected, there is considerably less segregation at higher spatial scales. What is less known is that Indian cities are much less segregated in terms of caste than American cities are in terms of race at this comparable higher spatial scale. This also has an important consequence - greater integration at this higher spatial scale has important material benefits - economic development defined in terms of lower poverty and higher educational attainment is significantly higher, both for the overall population and for deprived social groups.
Topic:
Discrimination, Caste, Economic Development, Cities, Segregation, and Public Space
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

41. Climate Adaptation and Job Creation: Addressing the Climate and Livelihoods Crises in India

Author:
Anjana Thampi
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
India was seventh in a list of the ten most affected countries due to extreme weather events in 2019. A sharp increase in the frequency and intensity of such events in the country by the end of the twenty-first century is projected. At the same time, relatively high economic growth rates have not resulted in secure and sustainable employment opportunities in the Indian economy. The loss of millions of jobs due to climate hazards in the country is also projected. In this context, I raise two key questions. First, are livelihoods in certain regions within India more vulnerable to climatic changes? The priority regions for adaptation planning and intervention are identified by constructing a livelihoods vulnerability index. Second, can institutional climate adaptation activities simultaneously address the climate and livelihoods crises in the country? The job creation estimates through five representative adaptation activities support the need for increased spending in a climate adaptation programme. Spending 1.5 percent of the GDP on a climate adaptation programme could create jobs to the extent of 1.3 percent of the labour force as of 2017-18. Investing 3 percent of the GDP on a combined climate adaptation and mitigation programme over the same amount spent instead on a fossil fuel-based programme would lead to net employment gains of around 2 percent of the labour force. This paper argues that investing in climate adaptation activities can secure livelihoods while improving mechanisms to build resilience to climate hazards. Such activities, if planned and implemented in accordance with the geographies, vulnerabilities, and socio-economic patterns of each region, could be transformational.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economic Growth, Job Creation, Adaptation, and Livelihoods
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

42. Circular Business Models: Policy Enablers for Plastic Packaging Alternatives in India

Author:
Jenny To
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
In recent years, global production of plastics has surged and is expected to increase further over the following years, with over a quarter being attributed to plastic packaging. Plastic packaging poses environmental risks due to the fossil fuels consumed in its production and the impact on eco-systems due to its inappropriate disposal. A large share of mismanaged plastic waste can be attributed to a few developing and emerging countries (DECs) in Asia. Their expected income and population growth, as well as associated increase in consumption and urbanisation, is expected to further strain inadequate waste management systems. In response, young ventures offering circular business models in packaging have emerged to tackle plastic packaging pollution. These ventures are embedded in an entrepreneurial ecosystem in which policies are, among others, determining enablers, and policy-makers have a key role in setting optimal framework conditions for circular business models in packaging to succeed. At the same time, policy agendas that address resource efficiency and the circular economy are on the rise in multiple DECs. For this reason, this paper addresses the question of the extent to which existing policies are supporting and enabling circular business models. This paper first discusses opportunities, risks, and challenges of existing circular business models in packaging in terms of waste hierarchy levels – reducing and dematerialising, reusing and refilling, replacing, and recycling – before examining the entrepreneurial ecosystems in which they operate. With a focus on policy as an enabler for circular business models in packaging, a holistic overview of possible policies in the circular packaging context is provided. Against this conceptual background, India is examined as a case-study. In recent years, multiple Indian start-ups have emerged, offering reusable packaging solutions or bio-based packaging alternatives, while other ventures seek to improve waste management and recycling. India’s previously introduced policies, including the Plastic Waste Management Rules, Swacch Bharat Mission, extended producer responsibility and a ban on single-use plastic, are the first stepping stones towards an enabling ecosystem for circular business models in packaging. However, this paper points out further opportunities – so far, India’s key policies have been addressing the downstream on the macro level. This study showed that macro-level policies need further enforcement and should be complemented by upstream policies. Meanwhile, meso-level and micro-level policies have been rather neglected. Policy-makers and development cooperation are encouraged to take action now, given the limited window of opportunity to establish a supporting framework for circular economies in development policy.
Topic:
Environment, Business, Waste, and Plastic
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

43. India's G20 Presidency: Opportunity to Resume Engagement in the Arctic

Author:
Anurag Bisen
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
The Arctic lies at the intersection of several issues with global consequences such as climate change, increased accessibility to and availability of resources, and global strategic contestation that have made the region increasingly relevant to the world. Temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise at four times the global annual average, driving many of the changes under way there, most prominently sea-level rise and the thawing of permafrost, which impact both local ecosystems and the global climate system. International scientific cooperation and data monitoring and sharing are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change, counteracting its negative effects, and enhancing living conditions and economic activity. Apart from a few limited pockets of cooperation that still exist, cooperation between Russia and the West with regard to the Arctic has largely been put on hold since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. The current absence of research and data sharing among scientists is threatening to jeopardise scientists’ understanding of the warming trends in the Arctic, exacerbating the environmental emergency the region in particular is facing. One of the few channels that still exists for constructive dialogue on a range of Arctic-related issues is the GCSP’s “‘High North Talks”’, through which discreet exchanges on various important issues continue. Among other things, the G20 agenda includes climate change, sustainable development and the environment, all of which are under threat due to the cessation of Artic-related scientific engagement. The G20 also represents a rare platform where engagement between Russia and the West has not yet ceased. The suspension of dialogue and scientific exchange vis-à-vis the Arctic is driven by a deep distrust that needs to be overcome by an interlocutor that is acceptable to all stakeholders. India's theme for its G20 presidency resonates strongly with the Arctic and its impact on the world. The resumption of Arctic-related scientific exchange is an easy deliverable with global benefits that India, which has the necessary legitimacy, credibility and relevance, should use its G20 presidency to strive for.
Topic:
Climate Change, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, G20, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Arctic

44. Social Media, Mass Atrocities, and Atrocity Prevention: 2023 Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention

Author:
Daniel Solomon and Tallan Donine
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide, United States Holocaust Memorial Museum
Abstract:
In 2018, anti-Muslim extremists in Sri Lanka organized a series of attacks against Muslim civilians throughout the country (Taub and Fisher 2018). Extremist leaders used a misleading viral video to stoke fears that the country’s Muslim minority was organizing a campaign to sterilize the majority Sinhalese population en masse. The video circulated widely on Facebook, and participants in the violence also set up private WhatsApp groups to coordinate the violence. This is just one example of a disturbing pattern that is increasingly under the spotlight: social media seeming to fuel violence, including large-scale and deliberate attacks on civilians based on their identity. These examples have become widespread in recent years, with attacks on the Rohingya community in Burma, the Muslim community in India, and multiple marginalized groups in Ethiopia and elsewhere following a similar trajectory. Influential users appeared to use social media in these cases to dehumanize their targets, recruit participants, and coordinate violence. Amid public outcry social media firms have begun to develop or revise some policies to limit the spread of harmful content. In the Sri Lanka case, Meta—which operates both Facebook and WhatsApp— acknowledged and apologized for the platforms’ role in the violence (Facebook 2020), issued a series of human rights impact assessments of its role, and stated it would implement policies to address associated human rights concerns from its products, with applications to other high-risk contexts (Sissons 2020). Across social media companies, responses to concerns about “offline harm” have largely focused on content moderation, modifying algorithms that promote different kinds of content, and restricting access to certain users. Many advocates argue that actions to date have not gone far enough, asserting that stronger action—including government regulation—is necessary to prevent social media from contributing to violence, including mass atrocities. Social media use will only continue to rise, especially in countries at high risk of new mass atrocities. Beyond select cases, however, there is insufficient research about the specific relationship between social media platforms and the onset and escalation of mass atrocities—or how social media companies and government actors might limit these platforms’ potential negative effects. The goal of this paper is to stimulate and frame discussion during the Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention about the relationship between social media technologies and the risk and prevention of mass atrocities. Based on a review of relevant research, policy documents, and public statements by social media companies, the paper surveys current knowledge and identifies important gaps in understanding about (1) how social media platforms have contributed to the risk and occurrence of mass atrocities in the past and how they might do so in the future;1 and (2) strategies to help prevent social media from fueling mass atrocities.
Topic:
Social Media, Facebook, Atrocity Prevention, and Risk Assessment
Political Geography:
India, Sri Lanka, and Global Focus

45. Strengthening Regional Value Chain between India and South Korea: Emerging Opportunities for Trade and Investment Cooperation

Author:
Durairaj Kumarasamy
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
The changing dynamics of supply chains and their impact on shaping international relations in East Asia have become crucial issues for scholars and policymakers. Asia’s two major economies, India and South Korea, are reassessing their strategy on the changing dynamics of the supply chain. India is to redesign its developmental strategy to establish India-centric supply chains in key industries. India has stressed its endeavour to become a self-reliant economy by introducing a highly ambitious Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme to attract FDI in strengthening and establishing the supply chain linkages in India, whereas South Korea has adopted a strategy to mitigate supply chain-related risk through greater emphasis on developing strong self-reliance and promoting economic diversification by enhancing its economic ties with India. In addition, the pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions further reinforced South Korea toward diversification and resilience of its supply chain. South Korea’s development experience and deep investment relations with India can explore the untapped potential of bilateral trade and investment linkages. To ensure supply chain resilience both India and South Korea focus on critical sectors such as semi-conductors, steels, secondary batteries and chemicals, along with new technology areas like AI, 6G, Digital Infrastructure and renewable energy for cooperation. In this regard, the study explores the trade and investment relationship between India and South Korea and identifies the potential sectors to engage in the sustainable value chain between them.
Topic:
Investment, Trade, Economic Cooperation, Supply Chains, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, Asia, and South Korea

46. What Should India Do Before the Next Taiwan Strait Crisis?

Author:
Vijay Gokhale
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In the next two decades, the Taiwan question is likely to assume increasing importance for the Indo-Pacific region. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is becoming more assertive about unifying Taiwan with the mainland, and it is also making progress toward establishing the military capability toward this end. For a rising PRC seeking to establish itself as the dominant global power, it is untenable that a part of its territory remains outside its control. Possible endeavors toward establishing this control could lead to a response by the United States, which would have broader ramifications for the region and the world. For the United States, any endeavors by the PRC to this end would undermine the very core of the idea that the United States is the defender of freedom and democracy across the world, thus undermining its credibility. It might also deal a devastating blow to the United States’ global power. In this context, and given the significance of Taiwan to both countries, it is an issue that can rapidly escalate, making it a matter of concern in the Indo-Pacific. Further, a conflict over Taiwan would dwarf the global economic fallout that began when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Short of conflict, Chinese coercion of Taiwan could disrupt the freedom of navigation and sea lanes of communication through the Taiwan Strait and will have severe consequences for Asian geopolitics and geoeconomics. Given India’s substantial geopolitical and geoeconomic interests in the region and its long history of exchanges with East and Southeast Asia, India should pay constant and careful attention to this issue. Further, a policy to respond to various contingencies must be thought through and put into place. This paper tries to look at the possible policy that India might adopt ahead of a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait. The paper proceeds in three parts. The first part analyzes the geopolitical and geoeconomic consequences of another Taiwan Strait crisis for India. While it is difficult to estimate the actual damage that would be dealt to the Indian economy, it is clear that all segments of the economy would be affected, with the impact possibly substantial enough to set India back several years. A crisis would also impact India’s geopolitical interests and national security, given that China is increasing its assertiveness both along the Line of Actual Control as well as in the Indian Ocean. The second part argues against a commonplace view that India played no role in crisis management during earlier periods of high tension in the Taiwan Strait—the 1954–55 and 1958 Taiwan Strait Crises, also known as the First and Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, respectively. By using archival material in the United States, the United Kingdom, and India, it seeks to dispel the above notion and that Taiwan ceased to be a matter of interest for India after it had recognized PRC’s claim over Taiwan in 1950. Further, it looks at the lessons for policymaking from India’s handling of the crises. The third part of the paper briefly traces the history of India-Taiwan relations following India’s transfer of its diplomatic recognition to the PRC till the present day. It provides an overview of India’s Taiwan policy. Given that a war in the Taiwan Strait is not beyond reasonable doubt, it then discusses the scenarios India might find itself in and the possible policies to respond to these scenarios. It recommends a close following of the U.S.-ChinaTaiwan strategic triangle, a whole-of-government assessment around impacts of a Taiwan Strait contingency, and an assessment of policy options. It also recommends mapping the expectations that China and the United States would have of India, along with undertaking consultations with key partners on the Taiwan question.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Crisis Management, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, Taiwan, Asia, and Indo-Pacific

47. India’s economic development since independence: An interpretative survey

Author:
Kunal Sen
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
When India became a republic in 1950, the economy was primarily agrarian, with threefifths of output originating from agriculture. In the sixty years since independence, there has been a significant transformation of economic activity away from agriculture, with less than one-fifth of output now originating from agriculture and the rest from manufacturing and services. Since the 1980s, along with structural change, there has been strong economic growth, till 2010, followed by a period of declining growth. In this paper, we describe India’s economic foundation, paying particular interest to the processes of economic growth and structural change. We begin with a brief discussion of the patterns of growth and structural change since independence. We then discuss the economic policies that have underpinned India’s economic development. Next, we discuss the evolution of the three main economic sectors—agriculture, industry, and services. We then provide a summary of India’s regional performance. We end with a discussion of India’s economic performance in the post-2014 period.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economic Growth, Economic Policy, and Industry
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

48. India’s development cooperation in Africa: The case of ‘Solar Mamas’ who bring light

Author:
Veda Vaidyanathan
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines multiple facets of New Delhi’s development cooperation with countries in Africa and argues that grassroots organizations in India that find innovative, low-cost technological solutions to developmental challenges can help governments and multilateral agencies craft inclusive, sustainable policies. The aim of this paper is threefold. First, to understand the major actors, instruments, themes, and mechanisms that make up India’s Development cooperation towards countries in Africa and how these usher in a new dimension of ‘South–South cooperation’. Second, the paper will explore the role of grassroots organizations that have found localized solutions in India that then export their learnings to other geographies and how they craft a unique role for themselves in India’s broader development cooperation framework. To explore this idea further, the paper will utilize the case study of a community-based grassroots organization, Barefoot College, Tilonia, founded by Sanjit Bunker Roy in 1972, and its solar programme. The college trains women from unelectrified, remote communities to become solar engineers who then return to their rural villages with the ability to harness solar power, earning them the title of ‘Solar Mamas’. Third, this paper argues that the uneven, fragmented Indian experience of designing development assistance programmes provides an important non-western perspective that can help decision makers craft policies for an era beyond aid.
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Innovation, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Africa and India

49. Fiscal dependence on extractive revenues: Measurement and concepts

Author:
Kyle McNabb
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The aims of this paper are twofold. It firstly identifies and discusses the extent to which public revenues from natural resources are adequately captured in existing cross-country revenue databases, before exploring the extent to which such data can be used to estimate countries’ fiscal dependence on extractives. I first discuss key conceptual, definitional and measurement issues, before comparing the coverage of key existing databases, notably the UNU-WIDER Government Revenue Dataset (GRD). I then propose a new measure of fiscal dependence on extractive revenues (FDE). Whilst a number of existing studies have attempted to better quantify countries’ resource dependence, to the best of my knowledge none has yet proposed an indicator that ties the idea of dependence to any outcomes. The FDE simply calculates the extent to which extractive-producing countries can fund day-to-day government spending with non-extractive revenues. I find that the FDE is strongly correlated with existing measures of extractive dependence but can ultimately tell us more about countries’ fiscal positions and resulting vulnerability to shocks to revenue or government spending.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Tax Systems, Extractive Industries, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:
Africa, South Asia, and India

50. India’s personal data protection act and the politics of digital governance

Author:
Stephen Weymouth
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
India recognizes the importance of establishing policy foundations for digital commerce, as cross-border data flows are essential to firms in all sectors, not just in technology. In manufacturing, three dimensional printing and robotics are revolutionizing production processes. Agriculture is benefiting from sensors and analytics, which optimize crop yields and resource usage. Healthcare is being transformed by electronic medical records, health information exchanges, and algorithms that analyze patient data and detect illness. Financial services are using blockchain technologies and AI to enable faster and more secure transactions. All industries rely on electronic payments, data analytics, and cloud storage to streamline various processes. With customers located worldwide, cross-border data flows are the byproduct of digital transactions. Data privacy frameworks can facilitate these flows by building consumer trust, thereby unlocking innovation and efficiency in all sectors. Given the significance of cross-border data flows to its economy, India has actively engaged in multilateral and bilateral discussions on digital trade governance. It is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a strategic forum comprising the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, a possible venue for coordination on digital governance. India has also joined the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), a US-led framework for economic cooperation which will facilitate conversations seeking “high-standard rules of the road in the digital economy, including standards on cross-border data flows and data localization.” The US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), launched by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden during the Quad summit in May 2022, presents an opportunity to build India-US trade ties through an industry-focused agenda. Finally, India and the United States have launched a new bilateral Defense Industrial Cooperation Roadmap to accelerate technological cooperation. This issue brief delves into the politics of India’s evolving digital governance, focusing on the draft Digital Personal Data Protection Bill of 2022 (DPDPB). The DPDPB aims to balance the interests of Indian consumers seeking enhanced privacy and data security against the business need for unconstrained data flows. The government’s responsive approach to stakeholder feedback on previous versions of the bill indicates that achieving these goals is feasible. However, concerns persist about ambiguities surrounding data transfers and institutional arrangements that exempt the government from complying with the law in ways that may encourage surveillance and censorship of opposing viewpoints.
Topic:
Economy, Business, Rule of Law, Data, and Data Governance
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

51. India’s Regulatory Shift: An Examination of Five Agencies of the Post- Liberalisation Era

Author:
Arkaja Singh
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
This paper explores the design of Indian regulatory agencies established post-liberalisation from an administrative perspective. Regulatory agencies were set up to replace state inefficiencies, and to discipline profligate state agencies, even as much as they were a response to state-market reorganisations and the challenge of privatization. Regulation provided an opportunity for upper levels of the Indian bureaucratic state to recast their power, with the idea that it would provide a framework for economic rationality, independence and technical specialization to take centre-stage. In actual practice however, the design of each of the regulatory agencies is shaped largely by pre-existing legal frameworks and institutions, and the agencies have remained quite tied in with their counterpart departments and on retired bureaucrats. However, in spite of these limitations, these agencies have some common features imbued by legislative mandate and organisational design which are unique in the context of the Indian state. They have focus and stability, a degree of functional independence, and most importantly, a concentration of power, which enables them to think through and implement complex policy transitions from multi-year and context-specific perspectives. The paper builds on learnings from a series of conversations with regulatory agency chairpersons in order to identify what regulatory governance is, in terms of the powers and mandate of the regulatory agencies and what makes them distinctive from the rest of public administration.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Liberalization, and Administration
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

52. Gendering the Indo-Pacific Dialogue: Opportunities for India and Australia

Author:
Priyanka Bhide and Aditi Mukund
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Women's Development Agency (IWDA)
Abstract:
Viewing the confluence of the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean as a distinctive and interdependent strategic and economic space is fundamentally changing the way both India and Australia think about and examine their relationship with the broader region.i The Indo-Pacific as a strategic construct has grown in prominence in global geopolitical discourse, especially over the last five years. The EU, USA, and several countries in Europe have in place or are developing their own strategies for engagement in the Indo-Pacific region. The European Union collectively advocates for a ‘Free and Open IndoPacific’, designed to foster a ‘rules-based international order, a level playing field, as well as an open and fair environment for trade and investment, tackling climate change and supporting connectivity.’ii For France, the Indo-Pacific is at the heart of its vision for a stable multipolar order, and the Indo-Pacific is listed as a ‘priority and essential partner’.iii Germany too is making an active contribution to shaping the international order in the Indo-Pacific, so that it is ‘based on rules and international cooperation, not on the law of the strong.’iv The significance of the construct is varied for countries that are part of the region. The scope of the conversation in the Indo-Pacific is widening, with more diverse and varied perspectives being brought to the forefront. In this paper, against the backdrop of global Feminist Foreign Policy conversations, we focus on how Australia and India view the Indo-Pacific; marking the shifts in both countries’ approaches, along with bringing in important aspects of their bilateral relationship, highlighting how the Indo-Pacific has grown in significance to become a foreign policy priority, how both India and Australia have incorporated a gender lens in their actions, and what could be the avenues for Australia and India to apply such a lens in their collaborations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, Dialogue, and Gender
Political Geography:
India, Australia, and Indo-Pacific

53. Beyond India’s Lockdown: PMGKY Benefits During the COVID-19 Crisis and the State of Digital Payments

Author:
Alan Gelb, Anurodh Giri, Anit Mukherjee, Ritesh Rautela, Mitul Thapliyal, and Brian Webster
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
India imposed a lock-down in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020 and began a gradual re-opening in June. A telephonic survey in April examined the early effectiveness of information and the massive PMGKY social protection program (Policy Paper 217). This paper analyzes a second-round survey, conducted six months later. Logistical and information constraints had relaxed, and incomes and jobs had begun to stabilize for some. There were not strong indications of differential access to benefits by income or location, but constraints to providing public employment had tightened in the face of increased demand, resulting in greater job rationing. Men made more use of digital channels, with a clear smartphone ownership hierarchy between men and women; this divide carried over into the growing autonomous use of digital payments which is conditioned on access to smartphones. Survey results confirm strong local agglomeration effects in digital payments, mirroring the general pattern with higher use in states hosting India’s major technology hubs. At the same time, trust-based concerns reduced the use of assisted digital cash-outs through agents.
Topic:
Economics, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
India and Asia

54. The Future of the Quad and the Emerging Architecture in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Garima Mohan and Kristi Govella
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
The Quadrilateral grouping of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States (the Quad) has come a long way from its origins, establishing itself as a crucial pillar of the Indo-Pacific regional architecture and significantly shifting in tone and focus from its early iterations. Since its revival in 2017, the Quad has been elevated to a leader-level dialogue, it has begun issuing joint statements, and it has developed a new working-group structure to facilitate cooperation. It has also significantly broadened and deepened its agenda to include vaccines, climate change, critical and emerging technologies, infrastructure, cyber, and space. These recent changes to the Quad raise several questions about its future trajectory. What are the drivers of engagement, the domestic support, and the bureaucratic capacity in the four countries to continue investing in the Quad? How well does the Quad’s new working-group structure function, and will the working groups be able to deliver tangible results? How has the Quad’s agenda evolved, and will it return to its initial focus on security challenges? Are the Quad countries open to cooperation with additional countries and, if so, what form will this take? This paper analyzes these questions drawing on recent publications, official statements, and interviews with key experts and policymakers in the four countries. In doing so, it offers five key takeaways into the Quad as an evolving part of the Indo-Pacific architecture, as well as a vehicle for achieving the goals of its four member countries.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Quad Alliance, and Defense Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, India, Asia, Australia, United States of America, and Indo-Pacific

55. The Waning India-Russia Partnership is an Unexpected Effect of the War in Ukraine

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
twitter The Waning India-Russia Partnership is an Unexpected Effect of the War in Ukraine 174 08.11.2022 India has not condemned Russia for its aggression against Ukraine, which stems from historical ideological ties, as well as their strategic and military cooperation. However, the war has led to unfavourable changes from India’s point of view—the weakening of Russia, the collapse of its cooperation with the West, and a growing dependence on China. As a result, Russia is diminishing in importance as a key partner of India, including a supplier of weapons and technology. In the long run, closer cooperation between India and the U.S. and EU countries in the field of security and energy will help to move India away from Russia.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Partnerships, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, South Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and India

56. India Emerges as a Key Power and Important Partner for the EU in the Indo-Pacific

Author:
Patryk Kugiel
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
India’s commissioning of its second aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, in September this year reaffirms the country’s aim to play a leading role in the Indo-Pacific. The country’s importance in the region will depend mainly on the course of the India-China rivalry, an increase in its economic potential, and the support provided to it by foreign partners. The convergence of goals in the Indo-Pacific strengthens India’s partnership with the U.S. and opens up opportunities for intensifying cooperation with the EU, especially in terms of connectivity, climate change, and the development of capacity in maritime domain awareness.
Topic:
International Cooperation, European Union, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, South Asia, India, and Indo-Pacific

57. How Does Urban Rail Development in China and India Enable Technological Upgrading?

Author:
Emmanuel Theodore Asimeng and Tilman Altenburg
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The socioeconomic wellbeing of urban areas depends on a well-functioning transportation system that makes it easier for people to access goods and services. Whereas most urban areas in emerging economies are expanding in size and human population, high motorisation and inadequate public transport services have resulted in congestion, traffic accidents and increasing transport-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban rail development can help address the current transportation problem because trains can move a large number of people at high speed, provide reliable services, contribute to lower GHGs and have a low accident rate. However, urban rail is expensive and requires many technical and technological capabilities often unavailable in emerging economies because they are technology latecomers. This paper examines how two emerging economies, China and India, have adopted industrial policies to develop local capabilities for urban rail technology. The paper shows how the Chinese government has moved from purchasing urban rail technology from multinational companies (MNCs) to the current situation where it has developed local capabilities, owns rail technology patents and competes with the same MNCs on the international market. The paper also demonstrates how India is gradually improving the local manufacturing of rail subsystems as opposed to importation. Overall, the paper suggests a pathway to industrial policy adoption that demonstrates how emerging economies can catch up with urban rail technology development to address their local transportation needs.
Topic:
Development, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology, Multinational Corporations, Urban, and Railways
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

58. The Great Pertinence of Gandhi to India in the 75th Year of Its Independence

Author:
Alan Nazareth, Gita Dharampal, M. Hamid Ansari, and Shyam Saran
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
India International Centre (IIC)
Abstract:
In this paper, I present the gist of two of my books: Gandhi’s Outstanding Leadership and Gandhi: The Soul Force Warrior. In the first book, I focused on Gandhi’s transformation from a timid youthful barrister in India into the fearless leader he became in South Africa after his racial humiliation at Pietermaritzberg. I presented the spiritual and other inputs (especially the Bhagwat Gita) that brought about this transformation, the nature, components and stature of his leadership, its diverse achievements, its impact on India and the world, and assessments of him, his leadership and achievements made by his contemporaries.
Topic:
Leadership, History, Nonviolence, and Mahatma Gandhi
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

59. A Historical Evaluation of China’s India Policy: Lessons for India-China Relations

Author:
Vijay Gokhale
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The violent clash in the Galwan valley in eastern Ladakh in 2020 fundamentally altered the dynamics of the India-China relationship. China’s increasing transgressions and attempts at coercion in the border areas since 2008–2009 have put the boundary question to the center of the India-China relationship. The salience of this question has also increased because the geopolitical backlash to China’s actions in 2020 has been greater than in previous instances, and because India’s policymakers and strategic community are no longer willing to give Beijing the benefit of the doubt regarding its intentions and actions. This has prompted a comprehensive relook in India at the past, present, and future of the relationship. While much of this has focused on the relationship from the Indian perspective and on trying to understand India’s China policy, the current chill in ties has highlighted the necessity of understanding China’s India policy. Thus, using Chinese sources, this paper analyzes the drivers of that policy and the options available to Indian policymakers to engage with, adapt to, and mold it. This paper argues that from the time of Mao Zedong’s rise to the helm of the Chinese Communist Party and the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, China’s India policy has been shaped by its view of the larger great power strategic triangle of China, the Soviet Union (later Russia), and the United States. As this triangle has evolved, this has had a direct effect on the India-China relationship. For much of the past seventy years, China was the weakest corner of the triangle and therefore driven by goals of security and status. In that context, it saw India—another large, developing country in Asia—as a competitor for security and status alike. As a result, China always looked at India through the lens of its own relations with the Soviet Union and the United States. It did not view India on its own merits, or credit it with agency, but as unequal as well as untrustworthy. China’s objective during the Cold War was to keep India as neutral as possible. In the post–Cold War period, the goal evolved to limit through containment and coercion India’s capacity to harm China’s strategic goal of hegemony. This paper analyzes China’s India policy in three phases. In the first phase between 1949 and 1962, China viewed the United States as its primary adversary and its core objective was to keep India neutral and away from the U.S. camp on matters of concern to Beijing. Flowing from this was the secondary objective of utilizing India’s influence in the developing world to build “Asian solidarity” to stem U.S. inroads into Asia.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Military
Political Geography:
China, India, and Asia

60. Lessons from the Coronavirus Pandemic: Leveraging Biotechnology to Tackle Infectious Diseases in India

Author:
Shruti Sharma
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
In India, the coronavirus pandemic encouraged partnerships between academia and industry, fostered collaboration among competitor companies, and stimulated cooperation within different government departments to leverage biotechnology to develop new test kits, protective equipment, vaccines, and respiratory devices. Despite this collaborative ecosystem, a few stakeholders faced several challenges during different stages of product development including discovery, research and development (R&D), clinical trial, or commercialization of their products. Some of these challenges can be attributed to a lack of an ecosystem that encourages collaborative research in India, limited involvement of private funding entities, a gap between academia and industry where university researchers lack sufficient awareness of the imperatives of industry, and a lack of awareness regarding contemporary applications of biotechnology among the regulatory community. The goal of this paper is to provide all stakeholders and the Indian public an overview of the role that advancements in biotechnology can play in strengthening India’s public health capacity. While the pandemic offered significant opportunities to the scientific community and private players in India to develop medical countermeasures, this paper only illustrates examples that discuss strategies that were adopted to accelerate the development of diagnostics and vaccines in the country. It further elucidates the challenges, both regulatory and funding, that some stakeholders faced in introducing new diagnostics and vaccines into the market during the pandemic. The paper argues that it is important for India to adopt a systematic approach to sustain the collaborative ecosystem that was cultivated during the pandemic. It further provides a brief assessment of the policies that regulate vaccines and diagnostic kits in India and the scope of enhanced and better implementation in the future. The paper also suggests strategies to maintain a continuous flow of investment to sustain research, streamline the regulatory infrastructure to minimize ambiguities regarding product approvals, and foster multistakeholder collaboration to create a sustainable research and innovation ecosystem that can be leveraged during health emergencies in the future.
Topic:
Infectious Diseases, Public Health, COVID-19, and Biotechnology
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

61. Russia and India: A New Chapter

Author:
Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russian-Indian relations are undergoing a major change. Throughout the Cold War, the relationship rested on three pillars: Soviet arms sales to India; shared public-sector-heavy economic philosophy and extensive Soviet aid; and the Soviet Union–India vs. United States–Pakistan–China geopolitical alignment. The fall of the Soviet Union, the rise of India and China, the U.S.-China tensions, the deepening of U.S.-India ties, and the Russian-Chinese partnership intensified by Russia’s break with the West and the war against Ukraine have had a profound effect on Russian-Indian relations. Of the three pillars of the Moscow–New Delhi relationship, only one remains: the arms trade. Russia remains a major supplier of weapons to India, and Russian equipment still makes up a vast portion of Indian Armed Forces’ force structure; but Russia is facing competition in the Indian arms market. India’s desire to diversify its supply of weapons and develop its own defense industry has resulted in declining Russian arms deliveries to India in recent years. Russia’s break with the West because of its war against Ukraine has accelerated its pivot toward China. Against the backdrop of U.S.-China and China-India tensions, Russia’s position as China’s junior partner will make it harder for Russia to preserve partnership with India. Moscow’s leverage versus both New Delhi and Beijing is shrinking as they have greater capabilities of their own than they had previously and have new partners that offer more than Russia. Still, the Russian-Indian partnership will continue. For India, Russia remains an important supplier of weapons and, most recently, oil. India has not joined the West’s sanctions on Russia. By doing so, it has demonstrated its independent foreign policy. For Russia, India is an important market for arms and oil. The Indian-U.S. security relationship is relatively new, whereas India-Russia ties have endured for over two generations. India has no reason to forsake the benefits of this relationship. Nor does Russia. It has been said that Moscow plays a weak hand well, but sustaining strong security ties with both China and India will become more difficult for it. The question is how China will react to Russian arms sales to India, and what Russia will do if pressed by China to curtail them. For reasons of geographic proximity, economic ties, and personal relations between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, the odds favor Beijing over New Delhi to have a bigger say in Moscow.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, History, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, South Asia, Eurasia, Ukraine, India, and United States of America

62. Tax provisioning by extractive industry multinational subsidiaries

Author:
Khanindra Ch. Das
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Extractive industries are spread across mining of metal and minerals, oil and gas, among others. Multinationals in these sectors are confronted with different challenges ranging from corruption, political risk, economic uncertainty, sunk costs, and the long-gestation periods to execute projects. As a result, tax payment behaviour of subsidiaries in the extractive sector could be dependent not only on these factors, but also on the life cycle of the subsidiary, profitability, and holding structure. Furthermore, emerging economy multinationals in the extractive industries could be state-owned and may invest in foreign subsidiaries for strategic reasons. We examine tax provision in host countries by India’s multinational subsidiaries in the extractive industry. Panel data analysis is carried out for the period 2010–20. It is found that tax provision remains lower in the initial years of subsidiary life and increases with the sustenance of subsidiary in the host country for a longer period. In addition, subsidiaries of public sector enterprises are found to have higher tax provisions than their private counterparts. When it comes to the determinants, economic policy uncertainty, corruption, and political stability are found to significantly affect tax provision.
Topic:
Corruption, Political stability, Multinational Corporations, Tax Systems, Economic Policy, Public Sector, Extractive Industries, and Uncertainty
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

63. Marriage market responses in the wake of a natural disaster in India

Author:
Shreyasee Das and Shatanjaya Dasgupta
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the 2001 Gujarat earthquake on age at marriage and other assortative matching outcomes. Using the 2004–05 wave of the India Human Development Survey and employing a difference-in-differences strategy, we document that the earthquake reduced the age at marriage for both men and women and decreased the likelihood of women marrying into wealthier households. Additionally, we find no changes in matching by educational status or in the likelihood of intra-caste and out-of-village marriages. The results are driven by districts that were severely affected by the earthquake in terms of deaths and destruction. Our conjecture is that the negative economic shock pushed parents to marry off their daughters early to save on dowry expenditures. We confirm this underlying mechanism by using a proxy for dowry payments. Our results highlight how the institution of marriage can induce long-lasting demographic changes after a natural disaster.
Topic:
Natural Disasters, Marriage, Earthquake, and Dowry
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

64. The legal basis for affirmative action in India

Author:
Kiruba Munusamy
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The affirmative action policy in India came into practice because of the generations of struggle undergone by the untouchable castes and other backward classes, who were historically excluded from education and administration. As society changed, it was inevitable that the vulnerable groups who had so far been forgotten in terms of social justice should be ‘included’. However, this paper finds that, instead of recognizing this need the judiciary continued to apply illogical limitations and age-old precedents that disrupted the implementation of affirmative action. Although the legal basis of affirmative action comes from the Constitution of India itself, which provides for reservation and enables States to make laws to that end, judicial interference has necessitated ongoing legislative changes to keep the needed affirmative action on track. Progress has been made, but it is often a case of ‘two steps forward, one step back’, and many issues, such as the ceiling on reservations and the categories to be included in it, remain to be resolved.
Topic:
Inequality, Social Justice, Judiciary, and Affirmative Action
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

65. The political economy of women’s empowerment policies in India

Author:
Jyotsna Jha, Niveditha Menon, and Neha Ghatak
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses the political economy of women’s-empowerment-related policymaking in India through a re-examination of the context of both the genesis and closure of a major programme, Mahila Samakhya. Mahila Samakhya, which embodied feminist philosophy and pedagogy, started in 1987 with the aim of creating the education-based empowerment of Dalit and Adivasi women in rural India, and was inexplicably shut down in 2014. We argue that a combination of political philosophy, electoral majority, and contemporary global trends influenced both the beginning and the demise of the programme. We argue that programmes such as Mahila Samakhya, which called for a long and messy process of collectivization of the most marginalized women using the methodology of reflection and reconstruction, became much less desirable with global shifts in development discourse. These shifts towards more ‘evidence’-based policy focused much more on immediate ‘outcomes’ than on ‘processes’, much to the detriment of programmes such as Mahila Samakhya.
Topic:
Political Economy, History, Women, Feminism, Empowerment, and Collectivism
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

66. Management of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kerala through the lens of state capacity and clientelism

Author:
Jos Chathukulam and Masani Joseph
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
During the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Kerala, a state in southern India, successfully managed to contain the pandemic. As a result, the Kerala model of managing the COVID-19 pandemic was celebrated as a success across the globe. However, at the time of writing, it looks like the celebrations were a bit premature and the failure to contain the spurt in COVID19 infections in the state in a second wave also ascertains this fact. While the rest of India recovered from the second wave of COVID-19 infections, Kerala struggled to bring the pandemic under control. This paper examines the state capacity in terms of health infrastructure before and during the pandemic. The paper also investigates the reasons behind the unravelling of the Kerala model of pandemic management. We analyse the role and impact of clientelism and political hegemony of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) in Kerala over COVID-19 mitigation strategies. We also investigate how Kerala’s effective pandemic response created a sort of performance legitimacy for the LDF government.
Topic:
Politics, Hegemony, State, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Clientelism
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Kerala

67. The social foundations of (in)effective states: Uttar Pradesh’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:
Indrajit Roy
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A rich and growing literature illustrates the paradox of COVID-19 responses by governments across the world. States with higher levels of authority and capacity have struggled to respond effectively to COVID-19, while states with low capacity and authority have been more effective in containing the pandemic. Subnational comparisons within India appear to support this worldwide finding, illustrated by the official data on pandemic management presented by the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. Against such appearances, this paper questions the official presentation of the Uttar Pradesh data. Based on reportage from grassroots sources, this paper argues that Uttar Pradesh witnessed a significant extent of undercounting. However, the paper cautions against assumptions that undercounting of COVID cases and deaths in the state reflects poor state capacity. Quite to the contrary, the paper situates the growing capacity of the state in Uttar Pradesh within its historical context to suggest it improved legitimacy and authority as it transitioned from an ‘elitist social coalition’ between 1947 and 1989 to an ‘inclusive social coalition’ from 1989 to 2017. The poor management of the pandemic by the present government of the state cannot thus be attributed to factors such as weak state capacity, poor authority, or limited legitimacy. What explains this paradox of poor COVID management despite improved state effectiveness? This paper reflects on this paradox by highlighting the ideational commitment of the state government to crafting an ‘ethnic social coalition’ rather than responding to the social welfare needs of the population.
Topic:
Ethnicity, State, Crisis Management, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Uttar Pradesh

68. Elementary education in India versus China: Guidelines for NEP implementation

Author:
Naveen Kumar and Vinitha Varghese
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper documents the state of elementary education in India and China since the 1960s, key lessons for India from China’s shift in focus from ‘quantity’ to ‘quality’, and evidencebased guidelines for effective implementation of India’s New Education Policy 2020 (NEP 2020). The divergent policy focus has led to differential trajectories for elementary education in the two emerging economies, with China being decades ahead in improving literacy rates. China’s adoption of the New Curriculum Reform 20 years before India’s NEP 2020 has put China on the path to achieving equitable development of ‘quality’ compulsory schooling. India’s NEP 2020 has components that have the potential to improve quality, equity, and efficiency of the education system. This paper makes the following recommendations for effective implementation of some of the NEP 2020 components: (1) an additional worker should be recruited at every preschool centre; (2) more resources should be allocated towards implementation, evaluation, and needed recalibration of the management of school clusters; (3) teacher recruitment, training, and rewards should be revamped; (4) standardized tests should be protected from data corruption, fudging, or grade inflation; and (5) a national-level road map and regular evaluations have to be introduced to ensure participation of socio-economically disadvantaged groups in education.
Topic:
Education, Literacy, and Schools
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and Asia

69. Is economic development affected by the leaders’ education levels?

Author:
Chandan Jain, Shagun Kashyap, Rahul Lahoti, and Soham Sahoo
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Although formal education is often considered an indicator of political leaders’ quality, the evidence on the effectiveness of educated leaders is mixed. Besides, minimum education qualifications are increasingly being used as requirements for contesting elections, making it critical to understand the role of politicians’ education in their performance. We investigate the impact of electing an educated politician on economic development in the politician’s constituency in India. We use constituency-level panel data on the intensity of night-time lights to measure economic activity. Our identification strategy is based on a regression discontinuity design that exploits quasirandom outcomes of close elections between educated and less-educated politicians. We find that narrowly electing a graduate leader, as compared to a non-graduate leader, in the state assembly constituency increases the growth rate of night-time lights by about three percentage points in the constituency. As pathways, we find that graduate leaders improve the provision of roads, electricity, and power; however, they do not significantly impact the overall provision of public goods. In comparison with findings from other studies in the literature, our result suggests that the impact of formal education of the leader is weaker than the leader’s other characteristics, such as gender or criminality.
Topic:
Education, Politics, Elections, and Leadership
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

70. Pandemic precarity and the complicated case of Maharashtra: Interrogating state capacity and its fault lines

Author:
Manish K. Jha
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The state of Maharashtra and the city of Mumbai have been referred to as the epidemic epicentre of India since the time of the plague of 1896 and influenza epidemic of 1918. During the COVID-19 pandemic too, the state experienced the highest cases with maximum fatalities. Against the structural backdrop of India’s underfinanced public health infrastructure, this paper engages with the subnational state’s capacity, legitimacy, and authority in managing the pandemic. The paper highlights the socio-economic and spatial-demographic context to explain the reasons behind the severity of the pandemic in Maharashtra. Through an analysis of regulatory information at different levels during crucial phases of the pandemic, and statistics about tests, caseloads, medical resources (such as hospital beds, essential drugs, and oxygen), migrants’ welfare, excess deaths, vaccines, etc., the paper explores how knowledge about the unfolding crisis and the capacity to respond kept changing as the pandemic progressed. The emphasis is on demonstrating how the state improved its response, from a situation of confusion to an augmentation of infrastructure and a coordinated response. Despite fiscal constraints and centre-state tensions, the reliance on rational bureaucracy, scientific knowledge, and the decentralization of the response helped to develop several models and good practices that were widely acknowledged. The paper emphasizes that the case of Maharashtra underscores the importance of decentralized planning and recognizes the value of collaborative federalism.
Topic:
Vaccine, Pandemic, COVID-19, Migrants, and Excess Deaths
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

71. Women’s inheritance rights and time use: Evidence from the Hindu Succession Act in India

Author:
Tana Gupta
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of the Hindu Succession Act on married women’s time use in India. The Hindu Succession Act was amended between 1976 and 2005 by giving equal inheritance rights to women for inheriting property. To estimate the effect of the equal inheritance reform, I devise a difference-in-difference strategy by exploiting the features of the reform. Using the nationally representative Time Use Survey 2019, I find that women exposed to the reform are investing 46 minutes per day more in employment. Moreover, women exposed to the reform are spending 44 minutes per day less time on home production, with no change in their leisure time. By looking at the individual components of home production, I find that the reduction in home production is driven on account of a decline in time spent on domestic chores, with no change in childcare work. In addition, I find that women exposed to reform devote slightly more time to learning. This implies that the reform has led women to substitute their time from home production to market work. These findings are consistent with an increase in women’s autonomy effect. I also find evidence of intra-household substitution of home production work for exposed women through sharing the burden of home production by other household members, especially the male members. This suggests that inheritance reform could be a form of reversal of the devaluing of women’s domestic and reproductive labour.
Topic:
Women, Inequality, Legislation, and Inheritance
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

72. Profit-shifting behaviour of emerging multinationals from India

Author:
Khanindra Ch. Das
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the profit-shifting behaviour of emerging multinational firms from India. It is found that the before-tax profitability of subsidiaries differs according to whether they were established directly or via an Offshore Financial Centre (OFC). The impact of the corporate tax rate on profitability is examined using a fixed-effects model for the period 2010–19. In the case of subsidiaries established via OFCs, a negative relationship between corporate tax rate and profitability is found, indicating profit-shifting behaviour. However, a disaggregated investigation by characteristics of parent firms reveals that the negative relationship holds primarily for via-OFC subsidiaries that belong to multinational firms with limited transactions of intangible assets, lower export intensity, and limited dependence on external commercial borrowing. The evidence of profit shifting is not all pervasive. However, in the presence of these transaction channels, multinational firms establish better control over intra-firm resources, which enables the transfer of resources within the multinational firm when the network of subsidiaries is connected through the OFC. The results are robust to the inclusion of economic and institutional factors pertaining to the host country.
Topic:
Finance, Multinational Corporations, Profit, Corporate Tax, and Tax Havens
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

73. Assessing the economic, societal and cultural impact of YouTube in India

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Recent research by Oxford Economics suggests YouTube contributed 6,800 Cr to the Indian economy in 2020 and supported 6,83,900 jobs. But its impact goes further, bringing a rich array of economic, cultural and societal benefits to India. YouTube generates substantial revenue for creators, artists, and media companies, who in turn support a broad ecosystem of employees and businesses in India. Creators deliver a wealth of educational tools and materials, which are valued by students, parents, and teachers alike.
Topic:
Economics, Mass Media, Social Media, and YouTube
Political Geography:
India and Asia

74. Localising the SDGs in India: The Role of Government and Private Training Institutes

Author:
Sreerupa Sengupta and Avik Sinha
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) present a new and coherent way of thinking about diverse facets of development. Implicit in the framework of the SDGs is that the goals are interconnected and interdependent. To translate such critical ideas into reality, countries need new skills, perspectives and approaches to the implementation of policies and programmes. Capacity-building, in particular for the public sector, is therefore at the core of achieving the 2030 Agenda. Although all countries have designed their respective capacity-building strategies and undertaken various interventions for knowledge dissemination among government officials and other stakeholders on the SDGs, there are wide variations between countries regarding the progress on capacity-building initiatives. In many developing countries, the heterogeneity of the political, societal and economic structures poses one of the biggest challenges to capacity-building for the localisation of the SDGs. This discussion paper explores and maps the SDG training landscape for government officials in India. As a particularly heterogeneous country in political, economic and cultural terms, India is an interesting example to explore the challenges of capacity-building in many developing countries towards the achievement of the SDGs. Against this background, the study aims to achieve the following: a) to understand the role of government and private actors in building the capacity of government officials to respond to the 2030 Agenda b) to understand the resources required for capacity-building on the SDGs c) to identify the current shortcomings in capacity-building efforts d) to develop recommendations for a more coordinated and effective strategy that will strengthen the capacity-building initiatives of India This paper highlights the relevance of the evidence for creating better processes, even in the sphere of sensitisation, capacity-building and advocacy. A major contribution of the paper is to help India develop an evidence-based policy on SDG trainings. This paper will also assist other countries that are currently tackling similar kinds of challenges in the realm of capacity-building for the SDGs in designing a comprehensive capacity-building strategy for effective implementation of the SDGs.
Topic:
Development, Government, Sustainable Development Goals, and Capacity
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

75. Place-based policies and agglomeration economies: Firm-level evidence from Special Economic Zones in India

Author:
Holger Görg and Alina Mulyukova
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper exploits time and geographic variation in the adoption of Special Economic Zones in India to assess the direct and spillover effects of the program. We combine geocoded firm-level data and geocoded SEZs using a concentric ring approach, thus creating a novel dataset of firms with their assigned SEZ status. To overcome the selection bias we employ inverse probability weighting with time-varying covariates in a difference-in-differences framework. Our analysis yields that conditional on controlling for initial selection, SEZs induced no further productivity gains for within SEZ firms, on average. This effect is predominantly driven by relatively less productive firms, whereas more productive firms experienced significant productivity gains. However, SEZs created negative externalities for firms in the vicinity which attenuate with distance. Neighbouring domestic firms, large firms, manufacturing firms and non-importer firms are the main losers of the program. Evidence points at the diversion of inputs from non-SEZ to SEZ-firms as a potential mechanism.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Special Economic Zones, and Geography
Political Geography:
India and Asia

76. How Comparable are India’s Labour Market Surveys?

Author:
Rosa Abraham and Anand Shrivastava
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy’s (CMIE) Consumer Pyramid Household surveys have emerged as an important source of regular labour market data for India. Given the differences in methods in data collection between the CMIE and official employment sources, it becomes exceedingly important to establish some comparability between the government and the CMIE datasets. With the release of the official labour surveys, Periodic Labour Force Surveys for 2017-18, we now have an overlap between the official datasets and CMIE datasets. In this paper, we examine the extent of comparability of labour force estimates from these two datasets. We find that employment estimates for men are broadly comparable. However, for women, there is a consistent divergence with CMIE estimates of women’s workforce participation lower than that of NSS-PLFS. We explore the points of divergence in the measurement of women’s work and hypothesise some potential reasons for this difference. We find that irrespective of the reference period used in the PLFS estimation of employment statuses, there is no convergence with the CMIE employment estimate for women’s employment. Moreover, the mismatch in CMIE-PLFS estimates occurs across all types of women’s employment and irrespective of what reference period of employment (in official data) is used.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Women, and Employment
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

77. Labour incomes in India: A comparison of PLFS and CMIE-CPHS data

Author:
Mrinalini Jha and Amit Basole
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic has created a need for high frequency employment and income data to gauge the nature and extent of shock and recovery from month to month. Lack of such high frequency household-level data from official sources has forced researchers to rely almost entirely on the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) conducted by the Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE). Recently, the CPHS has been criticised for missing poor and vulnerable households in its sample. In this context, it becomes important to develop a detailed understanding of how comparable CPHS estimates are to other more familiar sources. We examine the comparability of monthly labour income estimates for the pre-pandemic year (2018-19) for CPHS and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). Across different methods and assumptions, as well as rural/urban locations, CPHS mean monthly labour earnings are anywhere between 5 percent to 50 percent higher than corresponding PLFS estimates. In addition to the sampling concerns raised in the literature, we point to differences in the way employment and income are captured in the two surveys as possible causes of these differences. While CPHS estimates are always higher, it should also be emphasized that the two surveys agree on some stylized facts regarding the Indian workforce. An individual earning INR 50,000 per month lies in the top 5 percent of the income distribution in India as per both surveys. Second, both PLFS and CPHS show that half the Indian workforce earns below the recommended National Minimum Wage.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Survey, Data, COVID-19, and Income
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

78. Loss, Recovery and the Long Road Ahead: Tracking India’s Informal Workers Through the Pandemic

Author:
Paaritosh Nath, Nelson Mandela, and Aishwarya Gawali
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
Drawing on results from a panel of 2778 workers interviewed during and after the 68-day hard lockdown imposed in India, the following study examines the livelihood impact of the pandemic and the extent of subsequent recovery or lack thereof. Focussing specifically on workers located in the informal economy, the study is a useful addition to the burgeoning body of work on the economic impacts of Covid-19 by providing an insight into the employment and earnings recovery of those located at the margins. These findings are spliced across socio-economic groups to showcase the differential impact of the pandemic on different demographics within the informal sector. Our results show that six months after the hard lockdown, one out five persons were still out of work. Conditioned on being employed prior to the lockdown and having lost work during the lockdown, we find that urban respondents, women, workers above sixty and graduates were significantly less likely to recover from the shock. A similar exercise carried out for women workers showed that middle aged women, never married women and women who were not-literate women or educated up until primary and middle school were significantly more likely to recover from job loss. Older women, those located in urban areas and Muslim women were on the other hand significantly less likely to recover from the job loss. Earnings on the whole were half of what they used to be prior to the pandemic. Some better off workers shifted to more precarious types of employment. Given the fall in earnings poorer worker households were forced to borrow and the amount of loan taken was multiple times their average monthly income. In the context of loss in employment and reverse migration, the survey results show a substantial unmet demand for work under the MGNREGA programme even after the lockdown was lifted. We conclude that despite a partial recovery in the subsequent period, the pandemic induced lockdown has undermined the material conditions for subsistence for a large segment within the informal economy. Moreover, any attempts made to re-imagine what a social protection programme for the informal economy should look like must take into account the segments most susceptible to an economic shock on their livelihoods.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Employment, Survey, COVID-19, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

79. Did the nation-wide implementation of e-FMS in MGNREGS result in reduced expenditures? A re-examination of the evidence

Author:
Deepti Goel, J. V. Meenakshi, and Zaeen De Souza
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
This paper revisits a part of the analysis by Banerjee et al. (2020), in which they examine the consequences of the nation-wide scale up of reforms to the funds management system (e-FMS) in India’s national workfare programme, using a two-way fixed effects specification. They report a substantial 19 percent reduction in labour expenditures. We exploit the recent literature that highlights the limitations of the TWFE estimator in the presence of staggered roll out and effect a Goodman-Bacon decomposition of the TWFE coefficient, to pinpoint sources of identifying variation. We undertake a detailed examination of subsamples of six constituent and valid DiDs based on timing of treatment that are averaged into the TWFE coefficient to identify heterogeneity in treatment effects. This disaggregated subsample analysis does not support the conclusion of any reductions in MGNREGS labour expenditures, suggesting that the TWFE coefficient based on the full sample is indeed biased.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Governance, Public Finance, and E-Government
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

80. Who was Impacted and How? Covid-19 Pandemic and the Long Uneven Recovery in India

Author:
Mrinalini Jha and Rahul Lahoti
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
We investigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on income levels, poverty, and inequality in both the immediate aftermath and during the long uneven recovery till December 2021 using high-frequency household survey data from India. We find that the average all-India household income dropped between 30 to 38 percent during the months of the nationwide lockdown of April and May 2020. The subsequent recovery remained incomplete and was unevenly spread over the population even twenty-one months after the start of the pandemic. Households on an average continued to make 16 to 19 percent lower cumulative income in the post-lockdown period, but have mostly recovered after the second wave in the second half of 2021. Poverty more than doubled during the lockdown and was 50 to 80 percent higher in the post-lockdown period in comparison to the pre-pandemic levels. In the post-second-wave phase, poverty was still slightly higher than in the pre-pandemic period, and any progress in poverty reduction that would have been achieved under normal circumstances over the two years was lost. Inequality too spiked during the lockdown, but returned back to the pre-pandemic levels. Using an event study model we find that the initial shock of the lockdown was more severe for the bottom of the income distribution, but the bottom also experienced a faster recovery. On the other hand, the top end of the distribution experienced smaller declines during the lockdown but they have been slow to recover. The bottom deciles in any period typically constituted households working in contact-intensive, informal, less secure occupations that were hit the hardest during the lockdown, but were quick to recover when the economy opened up. The upper end of the distribution constituted households working in less contact-intensive, formal, secure occupations that were shielded from the sudden shock but were slow to recover.
Topic:
Poverty, Employment, COVID-19, Economic Recovery, and Income
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

81. Land Rights For Urban Slum Dwellers: A Review of the Odisha Land Rights to Slum Dwellers Act, 2017 and the Jaga Mission

Author:
Mugdha Mohapatra
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Theorists of economic development have emphasized the importance of clear, legally guaranteed property rights in ensuring economic development. Legally enforceable rights over land are thought of as a solution to incentivize investment in land, ensure optimal use of resources and create the conditions for market led-growth. Land rights (either through titling or restricted rights over land) have long been considered as a precondition for development because they increase access to formal credit. In the specific context of urban slum dwellers, the added benefit of land rights is that these rights can be used to ensure tenure security, help provide municipal services and other social benefits. Based on these presumptions in 2017, the Odisha Land Rights to Slum Dweller Act (OLRSDA) and the Odisha Municipal Corporation (Amendment) Act (OMC) were enacted. These enactments along with the implementation of the Odisha Liveable Habitat Mission, (also known as the JAGA mission) kickstarted a process of urban redevelopment. The policy measure of providing land rights to slum dwellers has been replicated in Punjab under the “BASERA” scheme and is under consideration in Himachal Pradesh. In this paper, I have analysed Odisha’s legislative and policy-based interventions to alleviate urban poverty through land rights. My key findings in this paper are as follows: (i) land rights under the OLRSDA are not sufficiently integrated within the existing legal framework and there exist several ambiguities. As a result, the land right granted cannot be used as an economic resource and offers limited increase in tenure security; (ii) land rights are beneficial yet insufficient to lead to the proposed goals of increasing access to municipal services and access to subsidies; (iii) government intervention is required at each stage of the slum redevelopment process to ensure the achievement of these goals.
Topic:
Urban, Land Rights, Economic Development, and Slums
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

82. The State of India’s Pollution Control Boards: Who has a seat at the table?

Author:
Arunesh Karkun, Sharon Mathew, Shibani Ghosh, and Bhargav Krishna
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) in India is one of the most polluted regions in the world. A densely populated region, with a large number of sources emitting a range of pollutants, regulating air pollution here is an extremely difficult and complex task. Several measures are afoot to improve air quality in this region, and the State Pollution Control Boards and Pollution Control Committees (SPCBs/PCCs) are playing a key role. However, these frontline agencies in pollution regulation are faced with several institutional constraints and challenges in discharging their mandate effectively. In ‘The State of India’s Pollution Control Boards’, we explore some of these key institutional issues faced by Boards in the IGP through a series of working papers: 1) “Who has a seat at the table?” – Examines the composition of the Boards and their ability to engage in policymaking and take decisions in furtherance of statutory goals; 2) “Who is at the helm?” – Analyses the qualifications of the Board's leadership - the Chairperson and the Member Secretary, the length and stability of their tenure, and whether they are well-placed to guide the Boards' functioning; and 3) “Who is in the field?” – Evaluates the adequacy of the Boards' capacity – particularly technical capacity – to perform critical functions like consent granting, inspection, monitoring, and enforcement. In this paper – the first in the series – we focus on the Board composition. The Water Act1 and the Air Act2 prescribe up to fifteen members on the Board which is headed by a Chairperson and a Member Secretary. Who are these members and what are their qualifications? The laws require various constituencies to be represented: officials representing State Government departments, urban local bodies, and public sector corporations. Three members may be nominated to represent interests of agriculture, fishery, industry, trade or any other interest. The laws do not lay down the qualifications of these members, apart from the requirement under the Air Act that at least two persons on the board must have special knowledge or practical experience in the field of air quality management.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Legislation, and Pollution
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

83. The State of India’s Pollution Control Boards: Who is in the field?

Author:
Bhargav Krishna, Arunesh Karkun, Sharon Mathew, Prannv Dhawan, and Shibani Ghosh
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) in India is one of the most polluted regions in the world. A densely populated region, with a large number of sources emitting a range of pollutants, regulating air pollution here is an extremely difficult and complex task. Several measures are afoot to improve air quality in this region, and the State Pollution Control Boards and Pollution Control Committees (SPCBs/PCCs) are playing a key role. However, these frontline agencies in pollution regulation are faced with several institutional constraints and challenges in discharging their mandate effectively. In ‘The State of India’s Pollution Control Boards’, we explore some of the key institutional issues faced by Boards in the IGP through a series of working papers: 1) “Who has a seat at the table?” – Examines the composition of the Boards and their ability to engage in policymaking and take decisions in furtherance of their statutory goals; 2) “Who is at the helm?” – Analyses the qualifications of the Board's leadership - the Chairperson and the Member Secretary, the length and stability of their tenure, and whether they are well-placed to guide the Boards' functioning; and 3) “Who is in the field?” – Evaluates the adequacy of the Boards' capacity – particularly technical capacity – to perform critical functions like consent granting, inspection, monitoring, and enforcement. In this paper – the third in the series – we focus on the technical capacity of the Boards, specifically the state of technical staff (engineers and scientists) employed by the Boards. The environmental engineers and scientists of an SPCB form the backbone of the institutional structure for pollution regulation. They carry out the fundamental task of the SPCBs, namely the review and grant of approvals under the environmental law regime. They evaluate applications from industries, conduct inspections or inquiries, collect and evaluate air and effluent samples, and issue approvals where applicable. Through their work, they provide the structural underpinnings to the “command and control” approach to pollution management. Several earlier reports have highlighted the significant staff constraints under which SPCBs function, highlighting in particular the high rate of vacancies among technical staff (1–3). In the context of a rapidly industrializing State, and an evolving environmental regulatory regime, there is a need for SPCBs to be appropriately skilled and staffed.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, Regulation, Pollution, and Personnel
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

84. The State of India’s Pollution Control Boards: Who is at the helm?

Author:
Shibani Ghosh, Sharon Mathew, Arunesh Karkun, and Bhargav Krishna
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in India is one of the most polluted regions in the world. A densely populated region, with a large number of sources emitting a range of pollutants, regulating air pollution here is an extremely difficult and complex task. Several measures are afoot to improve air quality in this region, and the State Pollution Control Boards and Pollution Control Committees (SPCBs/PCCs) are playing a key role. However, these frontline agencies in pollution regulation are faced with several institutional constraints and challenges in discharging their mandate effectively. In ‘The State of India’s Pollution Control Boards’, we explore some of the key institutional issues faced by Boards in the IGP through a series of working papers: 1) “Who has a seat at the table?” – Examines the composition of the Boards and their ability to engage in policymaking and take decisions in furtherance of their statutory goals; 2) “Who is at the helm?” – Analyses the qualifications of the Board's leadership - the Chairperson and the Member Secretary, the length and stability of their tenure, and whether they are well-placed to guide the Boards' functioning; and 3) “Who is in the field?” – Evaluates the adequacy of the Boards' capacity – particularly technical capacity – to perform critical functions like consent granting, inspection, monitoring, and enforcement. In this paper – the second in the series – we focus on the Board leadership – the Chairperson and the Member Secretary. They play a crucial role in heading these agencies and ensuring their functioning is in accordance with the statutory mandate. Under the Water Act1 and the Air Act,2 important statutory functions of the Board are delegated to them, and they need to be qualified to perform these functions effectively. The Water Act and the Air Act provide limited guidance on the qualifications of persons who should hold these posts. The issue of who can lead a pollution control board has been discussed in several reports and government correspondence. Specific appointments to leadership positions in different states have been challenged in High Courts over the years. The most comprehensive judicial consideration of the issue was in a 2016 judgment of the National Green Tribunal (NGT).3 Although the final outcome of the NGT’s judgment was overturned by the Supreme Court, the Supreme Court shared the NGT’s anguish at the state of governance of these boards, and significantly, directed states to form rules or guidelines for the recruitment of qualified persons to these two posts.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Leadership, and Pollution
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

85. Frontline Workers and the Covid-19 Pandemic

Author:
Gokulnath Govindan
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The Covid-19 pandemic proved to be a global disaster that took countless lives, many of whom were frontline functionaries deployed to contain this crisis. As a result, the Indian state, unlike before, had to acknowledge the risk that accompanied their workers in this crisis. They promised them vaccination, health & life insurance, amongst other material benefits to protect, insure and motivate such cadres. The paper attempts to study these promises, in particular its vaccination and insurance policies, to better understand what it meant to be a frontline worker in this crisis. Did the Indian administration account for all at-risk workers and their context, or did they simply exclude many of them in their policies ? The essay, at its core, will answer this question as it examines the Indian state’s capacity to celebrate its frontline workers.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Crisis Management, Risk, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

86. Debates on Administrative Reform in India: Transfers

Author:
Akila Ranganathan
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
India has a long history of periodic transfers of senior administrators. As the First Administrative Reforms Commission, 1969 (First ARC), notes, the practice of periodic transfers was historically devised with the view of preventing officials from acquiring personal influence in a manner that could harm or diminish the influence of the ruling political powers. Officers used to be rotated from their posts every 3 to 4 years. The First ARC declared such a system of periodic transfers to be “antiquated,” stating that “it [was] no longer necessary for the Government to be suspicious of its own employees” (1966, p. 110). The commission argued that frequent transfers also interfered with development work, which required officers to be closely associated with the programmes and communities that they were serving. Further, these transfers hamper the officers’ job satisfaction and sense of achievement. Thus, the First ARC laid down that periodic transfers should be exercised only where a post carried regulatory responsibilities; in any post involving development activities and programme management, transfers should be an exception. Despite these recommendations, transfers have remained an inexorable feature of the higher civil services in India. The Second Administrative Reforms Commission, 2008 (Second ARC), notes that “frequent transfers of civil servants continue to be one of the most vexatious governance problems still facing India” (p. 182). The Commission details that, between 1986 and 2006, 48–60% of the total strength of the IAS spent less than 1 year in their respective postings. The number of IAS officers who spent more than 3 years in their respective postings is consistently less than 10% of the total strength in that period. Similarly, another study of the bureaucracy has shown that, from 1980 to 2000, the average tenure of IAS officers at their posting was only 16 months (Iyer and Mani, 2012). This working paper provides an overview of the reform discourse on the process of transfers of higher civil services officers in India. An analysis of various reform committee reports since the 1980s, shows that transfers are associated with two broad attributes of the higher civil services: the effectiveness of administration and governance, and the insulation of civil servants from political interference. In addressing the issues around transfers, recommendations of reform committees have been aimed at enhancing the former and restoring the latter. These recommendations include monetary benefits, fixation of a minimum tenure for officers, and the establishment of an independent body to oversee transfers.
Topic:
Reform, Civil Servants, Personnel, and Administration
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

87. Debates on Administrative Reform in India: Expertise

Author:
Karnamadakala Rahul Sharma, Aditya Unnikrishnan, and Sonakshi Sharma
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Historical accounts show that the education and training of the colonial civil servant was purposely made non-specialised. Autobiographical narratives of ICS officers who received their training at Halieybury (England), reveal that the quality of education was low and students were tested on their knowledge of languages such as Persian and Sanskrit, which had little practical use once they arrived in India. After the Service was made merit-based in 1853, officer training included more practical aspects such as attending court proceedings and writing reports, however, it did not involve in-depth specialisation in any one field. The non-specialised character of training and the expertise gained, were well suited to the nature of the polity that required district officials to hold multiple portfolios. Earl Cornwallis, the third Governor General of Bengal who is credited with making extensive changes in the civil service from 1793 to 1859, tried to differentiate the judicial and supervisory functions for land revenue assessment and collection. He created the office of the District Collector as a supervisory role to oversee collection of revenue from landholders, whereas the administration of law was to be the responsibility of a civil judge and magistrate. However, after the annexation of Awadh and the territorial expansion of the company, it proved impossible for a District Collector to separate their judicial and supervisory functions, particularly in the newly acquired territories (Cohn, 1987, p. 509). The Indian Administrative Service (IAS) we have today inherited this generalist notion of the civil servant from its predecessor, the ICS. Post-independence, even though different services were created to undertake specific responsibilities, the imagination of the expertise of the IAS officer continues to be organised around the principles of the colonial civil service. This has led many to argue that the skills and knowledge of the IAS were unsuited to the nature of polity and demands of governance (Administrative Reforms Commission, 1969). More than fifty years later, the same tension concerning the personnel involved in governance and the skills/ knowledge required for these roles persists. As a result, two fundamental questions are central to the debates on expertise in the country’s government. First: What kind of knowledge and expertise is most useful for administrators? This debate has frequently been framed as a choice between generalists and specialists. And second: How can this expertise be embedded in administration, particularly at senior levels? Two kinds of solutions dominate this discourse, one where internal mechanisms are restructured to make best use of existing internal talent (via domain assignment) and the other involving the recruitment of external experts (via lateral entry). This working paper delves into the detailed discussion on these two questions by reviewing the First and Second Administrative Reforms Commissions (ARC), Central Pay Commission Reports, the Surinder Nath Committee report, Sarkaria Commission report, NITI Three Year Action Agenda and Parliamentary Standing Committee reports. The first section of the working paper attempts to present a discursive overview of the generalist-specialist binary. The next two sections, on Domain Assignment and Lateral Entry respectively, explain the dominant approaches that have been considered to address the expertise problem. 2. Generalists vs Specialists: origins and tensions As with any job, there is consensus within the reform discourse that bureaucrats must display a high degree of ability and expertise. However, there are opposing views on what constitutes this expertise at the highest levels of the bureaucracy. These differences have frequently been expressed in the language of ‘generalists’ and ‘specialists’ partially as a result of the structure of India’s Civil Service which consists of generalist and specialist services as described in the next sub-section. The next two subsections throw light on the evolution of reform thinking on the kind of expertise needed—from narrow technical knowledge to domain competence, and eventually towards a more complex understanding that expertise is gained on the job that cannot be achieved through appropriate training alone. In the timeline on page 6, we present the sequence of events and reports of the last few decades that we consider salient for understanding the debate on generalist versus specialist roles. The timeline offers a bird’s eye view of reform trajectory when read alongside the detailed information provided in the following sections.
Topic:
History, Reform, Colonialism, and Administration
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

88. Debates on Administrative Reform in India: Performance Management

Author:
Aditya Unnikrishnan, Sonakshi Sharma, and Karnamadakala Rahul Sharma
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In the early nineteenth century, a civil servant employed by the English East India Company had a considerable amount of autonomy. On the one hand, their actions could be questioned at the following levels: regional, provincial, at the Presidency, in London at the Court of Directors, the Board of Control and ultimately at parliament. However, as historians have noted, “given the difficulties of communication and the sheer bulk of information and correspondence which had to pass between India and London, it often took two or three years for matters originating in a district to be commented on in London” (Cohn, 1987, p. 512). In such a scenario, monitoring and measuring the performance of civil servants was particularly challenging. Accounts of civil servants have not yet been analysed to understand on what basis they were picked for promotion by their superiors or the Governor General. This changed postindependence, when clear processes were put in place for measuring performance, and performance appraisals were at the core of this shift. Measuring, reporting, and rewarding performance appropriately are critical for motivating and developing people’s capabilities across organisations and professions. In the public sector, for example, a recent survey of 23,000 civil servants in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America finds that “civil servants are more satisfied, committed and, at times, motivated to serve the public, work hard and perform, where they perceive that performance shapes their pay, promotion and job stability prospects” (Sahling et al., 2018, p. 36). However, measuring and rewarding performance in the public sector can be challenging because government employment often lacks the classic drivers and incentives that foster performance in other organisations. Employees in government and public sector organisations function in the absence of clear profit motives or market competition, which other organisations use to measure and reward performance (Moriarty & Kennedy, 2002). Government employees also have to contend with multiple ‘principals’, such as politicians, bureaucrats and the citizen population, each of whom have differing objectives. Measuring performance and linking it to multiple outcomes in such contexts can be complex (Pollitt, 1986). Finally, most civil service contracts have strong protections against dismissal, which severely limits the incentive tools available to managers in the private and nonprofit sectors (Esteve and Schuster, 2019). The design or assessment of performance appraisal systems in the public sector, therefore, need to consider these boundary conditions seriously. This working paper examines reforms related to the design of performance appraisals in the Indian Civil Services. Within the Indian government and especially senior administrative roles, performance appraisals have served as the primary tool by which employee performance is assessed and rewarded. This system, established in 1985, was meant to assess and rate officers annually against ex ante targets set at the beginning of the year (Surinder Nath Committee, 2002). By linking performance to career advancement, appraisals sought to motivate and incentivise better performance by government employees. Weaknesses in this appraisal process have, however, severely limited its impact on performance, requiring the government to undertake multiple reforms over the years.
Topic:
Reform, Management, Performance Evaluation, Civil Servants, and Administration
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

89. Debates on Administrative Reform in India: Training

Author:
Sonakshi Sharma, Aditya Unnikrishnan, and Karnamadakala Rahul Sharma
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Since Independence, the government’s approach to training the IAS has undergone a sea of change. The IAS has evolved “from being a postcolonial civil service… to one that is rooted in the empirical realities of a developing and resurgent India” (Kiran Aggarwal Committee, 2014, p.1). Training programmes for the IAS have shifted their focus from regulation to socioeconomic development in keeping with the new demands faced by governance and administration (Second Administrative Reforms Commission, 2008). In spite of these changes, there remain similarities with the colonial civil service. Like the ICS, the IAS is a high-functional generalist service tasked with handling a variety of responsibilities. Reform committees continue to express concerns that trainees do not attach adequate value to the training process (Second Administrative Reforms Commission, 2008). Training is still expected to create strong bonds between officers and establish a camaraderie. Most importantly, the central principle remains the same; a merit-based process is used to select young people with little or no experience in governance and place them in positions of great responsibility. This kind of system inevitably relies heavily on training to impart skills. Better training, both at the formative and mid-career stages, is expected to bridge the “wide chasm between public expectation and service delivery” (Kiran Aggarwal Committee, 2014, p. 3). For this reason, it is vital to examine the history of reform debates and conversations on the subject. Tracing the evolution of these reform threads will better equip us to analyse current and future reform measures by understanding which problems are being addressed and how. To this end, this working paper closely reads the following: the Administrative Reforms Commission (ARC) reports, Central Pay Commission (CPC) reports, and reports produced by reform commissions like the Alagh Committee, Kiran Aggarwal Committee, Hota Committee, Kothari Committee, Yugandhar Committee, VT Krishnamachari Committee and the Surinder Nath Committee. Apart from this, the working paper also draws on theNational Training Policy, 1996 and2012, and documents on Mission Karmayogi that reflect the government’s vision for IAS training. This paper begins with a short description of the current training format and the IAS ecosystem. This is followed by an analysis of the three streams that dominate reform thinking on IAS training: the strategy, structure and content of training; the role of and need for incentives in training programmes, and the institutional apparatus in place to operationalise training programmes.
Topic:
History, Reform, Colonialism, Training, Civil Servants, and Administration
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

90. Debates on Administrative Reform in India: Examinations and Recruitment

Author:
Archana Sivasubramanian
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
Over the last 50 years, norms for recruitment in the Indian Civil Services have undergone several changes to reflect the needs of the administration, the aspirations of a democratic society and the changes in the country’s political economy. There were two developments that led to these changes. The first development is domestic in nature—reform committees were set up to examine the different features of the examination and the recruitment system for entry into the All India Civil Services. A reform committee setup under A.D. Gorwala in 1951, published independent India’s first report on public administration. Subsequent reform committees addressed several other aspects of the Civil Services examination system including educational qualifications, age for entry into the services, number of attempts and service allocation rules. The second, and a connected development is international in its scope and nature. Other Westminster democracies across the world were implementing new theories of public management—such as market-oriented reform of the Civil Services—and these developments advanced India’s thinking on reforms for its own Civil Services. Every reform committee has highlighted the importance of the recruitment exercise as a channel to draw people with merit into the services. Reforms were proposed to “weed out the dead wood” and professionalise the Civil Services in order to realise an efficient, incorrupt and a result-oriented bureaucracy (Alagh Committee, 2001, p. 35). This, the committees suggested, must be routed through the recruitment funnel by finding the ‘right type of persons’—candidates who can combine intellectual competence with a strong ethical value system and a positive public service orientation. An important objective of the recruitment system has been to also ensure that the Civil Services is more equal and representative and guarantees representation to historically underrepresented groups through recruitment quotas. However, some studies have argued that the recruitment pattern reveals a distinct upper caste, urban bias, stressing the need for corrective measures to democratise the Civil Services (Barik, 2004). Keeping this backdrop in mind, many debates pertinent to the recruitment and examination architecture have been held. On the surface, these debates appear to be procedural as they concern themselves with questions about age limits and number of attempts that applicants are eligible for. But a closer examination of the debates reveals that they are also fundamentally about questions of meritocracy and representation in the Civil Services. The Civil Services Examination (CSE ) is expected to allow for equal opportunity and representation of all castes and classes in the Services. In addition, meritocracy plays an important role in the design of this system, but there are discussions on the validity of this idea of merit itself. Examining some of these debates will serve as entry points for us to understand the examination and recruitment apparatus, a small but critical cog in the machinery of India’s bureaucracy. The main objective of this working paper on examinations and recruitment in the Civil Services is to trace the origins of these debates in order to contextualise the present through an understanding of the past. The focus of this working paper is only on the All India Civil Services, although equally interesting and meaningful, reforms in the State Civil Services institutions—like the Punjab government’s decision to mandate 33 percent reservation for women in direct recruitment for the Punjab Civil Services—have not been touched upon. There is a large volume of material to explore on the State Civil Services and we hope that this working paper lays the foundation for further studies in this regard. This working paper analyses various committee reports that were set up to reform the Civil Services. Most of the analyses are drawn from the Kothari Commission Report (1977), the Satish Chandra Committee Report (1989), the Alagh Committee Report (2001), the P. C. Hota Committee Report (2004) and the Second Administrative Reforms Commission Report (Second ARC) (2009). Figure 1 outlines a timeline of committees that have made important observations on the debates on examinations and selection. The committee reports reveal a discernible pattern—three key debates that have been found to recur over and over again: eligibility status, examination process and service allocation. These debates may not cover the entire gamut of arguments but have been addressed in this paper because of the importance given to them in the committee reports and their relevance to contemporary India. Overall, this working paper does three things: first, it synthesises the main ideas from the reform committee reports; second, through a discussion section, it highlights the normative principles that underpin the selection processes and third, it asks a few open-ended questions that warrant careful analysis, stakeholder conversations, and reflection.
Topic:
Reform, Recruitment, and Civil Services
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

91. The Data Story: Uttar Pradesh Elections 2022 – Phase 1

Author:
DataCommons @ CPR
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
In the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh elections of 2022, 58 assembly constituencies (ACs) will go to the polls. Polling will take place on 10 February, 2022. In this note, we first analyze and provide social context for the historical electoral trends across these 58 assembly constituencies. Second, in collaboration with Datalok, we provide a detailed analysis of polling booths from the 2017 state election. We show how the consolidation among Hindu voters in the aftermath of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots drastically shifted electoral outcomes in the region, and we describe how current politics may affect electoral outcomes in the 2022 election.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Voting, and Data
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Uttar Pradesh

92. Submission to the Commission on Air Quality Management in NCR and Adjoining Areas (CAQM)

Author:
Shibani Ghosh, Bhargav Krishna, Navroz K. Dubash, Sharon Mathew, and Arunesh Karkun
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:
The setting up of the Commission for Air Quality Management (CAQM) represents a significant milestone for air quality management in India. The Commission’s ability to perform its functions effectively and facilitate measures that will improve air quality in the NCR and adjoining areas for the long term will likely be impacted by several political, economic, technical, and social factors. In such a scenario, it is essential that the Commission enjoys sustained public trust as being non- partisan as well as a technically sound and socially sensitive body. The CAQM’s mandate is a statutory expression of the fundamental right of Indians to breathe air that is not harmful to their health. Its functioning should therefore reflect an inclusive and participative approach that allows citizens to claim and protect their right and prevent its encroachment when possible. At the Initiative on Climate, Energy and Environment (ICEE) at the Centre for Policy Research (CPR), we have been closely studying the functioning of various environmental regulators, and for the past four years have been working specifically in the area of air quality regulation and governance. Based on our research, we have identified five broad themes for the Commission to consider as it implements its statutory mandate: taking a holistic, long-term regional approach; tracking progress of NCAP implementation; ensuring transparency through proactive disclosure and timely reporting; developing enforcement protocols and grievance redressal mechanisms; and encouraging informed public consultation. We also suggest specific action points as illustrations under each of these themes.
Topic:
Environment, Governance, Regulation, Pollution, and Air Pollution
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

93. What Do We Really Know about Productivity Differentials across Countries?

Author:
Jayati Ghosh
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper examines and critiques the most widely used measure of productivity (output per worker employed) and argues that this is a flawed, inadequate and even misleading measure of economic progress. In terms of cross-country comparisons and assessing trends over time, both the numerator (GDP or value added) and the denominator (number of workers or hours worked) have significant conceptual and measurement problems. These issues are considered in general, and also with regard to how they affect analyses of productivity differentials in the U.S. and India in the recent period.
Topic:
Political Economy, GDP, Employment, Economy, and Productivity
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, North America, and United States of America

94. Who Gains from Agricultural “Reform”?: Understanding the 2020 Farm Laws and Protests

Author:
C. P. Chandrasekhar
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Over 2020-21, farmer protests in India turned into a movement that took large numbers of farmers to the borders of India’s capital. The movement was provoked by the passage of three farm laws designed to dismantle regulation of agricultural trade, provide a legal framework for contract farming arrangements, and facilitate corporate entry into agricultural production and trade. Despite intense farmer opposition the government held out for almost a year after the movement began before withdrawing the laws. The paper attempts to understand the factors underlying this stand-off by tracing the post-Independence evolution of agricultural and food policy and examining the political economy context of the positions adopted by the farmers and the government. A lesson that the farmers have derived from experience, I argue, is that agricultural prices, the terms of exchange between agriculture and industry, and the viability of crop production are not determined by benign and free markets, but by structures of power reflected in state policy. Till the economic crises of the mid-1960s those power relations were skewed against agriculture, but the crisis forced a shift in state policy aimed at raising agricultural production by intensifying farming activity, especially food grain production. A new framework of intervention involving procurement at a cost-plus price and distribution to consumers at subsidised prices, helped either tilt the terms of trade in favour of agriculture or prevent an adverse shift in the terms facing agriculture. Farmers saw the farm laws and the failure to guarantee procurement at an adequately remunerative price as an effort to dismantle that protective framework and favour corporate interests. The protests have resulted in the. repeal of the laws. But the stand-off over the level and price of procurement is still unresolved.
Topic:
Agriculture, Political Economy, Reform, Protests, and Trade
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

95. Time Use Data in Feminist Political Economy Analyses: Gender and Class in the Indian Time Use Survey

Author:
Sirisha Naidu and Smriti Rao
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The literature on agrarian change in India has largely employed class categories based upon data on land, assets and occupational status. Land and asset data tend to exist at the level of households, while occupation categories have neither fully counted reproductive labour nor accounted for diversified livelihood strategies. As a result, categorizations of class in the literature on agrarian change tend to collapse women’s class relations into those of male household heads. The recent completion of India’s first ever national time use survey provides an opportunity to address these longstanding gaps. This paper examines whether and how the 2019 Indian Time Use data lends itself to an understanding of class relations that i) can better accommodate an expanded conception of work as including reproductive labor ii) better accommodate the highly diversified livelihoods of rural Indians iii) better grasp the articulation of caste and gender differentiated labor processes with capital. In this paper, we are able to show i) and ii). The third goal is somewhat stymied by the absence of qualitative data that contextualize time use data. We compare the class relational mapping obtained from time use data with that obtained from land and occupational data and examine the possibilities and limits of employing time use data to deepen feminist political economy analyses of agrarian change.
Topic:
Agriculture, Political Economy, Labor Issues, Feminism, Caste, and Gender
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

96. Factsheet: Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)

Author:
Bridge Initiative Team
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:
Founded in 1925 by K.B Hedgewar, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is an Indian right-wing, Hindu nationalist, paramilitary volunteer organization. In 2020, RSS had almost 585,000 members and over 57,000 branches or sakhas, including a trade union wing (Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh), women’s wing (Rashtriya Sevika Samiti), student wing (Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad), and economic wing (Swadeshi Jagaran Manch). The Print, an Indian news outlet, estimates that 3 out of 4 ministers in the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are members of the RSS, including the current Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.
Topic:
Far Right, Hindutva, Hindu Nationalism, and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

97. An Analysis of the Binding Constraints on Digital Financial Inclusion in India Using a Decision Tree Methodology

Author:
Nandini Harihareswara and Howard Miller
Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The past decade has seen significant innovation and growth in the volume and value of digital payments in India. However, we find that the associated gains have been heavily concentrated in favor of wealthier and urban customers and have had less impact on lower income and rural populations. While some customers now have a far greater selection of quick, cheap, and convenient digital payments methods, as much as 65 percent of the population remains effectively excluded. Using a decision tree framework, we test a range of factors on the supply and demand sides that could be binding constraints on further digital finance penetration. We find that an unlevel playing field in favor of the (primarily state-owned) banking sector results in a lack of effective competition that could be inhibiting greater innovation and outreach in favor of lower-income and marginalized people. This unlevel playing field is potentially a function of institutional weakness combined with the nexus of control of the government and the banking sector, which is reinforced by the position of the National Payments Corporation of India. This control may also be viewed by the government as necessary to protect economic stability in a very dynamic market. To the extent that institutional deficiencies are the root cause of regulatory barriers to the entry of new providers and the scope of digital financial services offered, they are a binding constraint on advancing digital financial inclusion. Under this market structure, the outreach and inherent business models of digital payments and transfers do not provide sufficient perceived benefits to attract large segments of the population. Further, a lack of trust in providers combines with the perception of low benefits to generate an additional binding constraint, preventing the market from reaching a critical mass at which the bulk of the population would have the means and the incentives to use the system. Therefore, the market remains at an equilibrium below its potential.
Topic:
Development, Governance, Finance, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
India and Asia

98. Tangled Wires: Preparing India’s Power Sector for the Clean Energy Transition

Author:
Jonathan Kay
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Almost none of the world’s largest polluters have enacted policies compatible with the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to within 2 degrees Celsius, a threshold past which climate disruption is projected to become even more frequent, severe, and unpredictable. Fortunately, despite the absence of adequate government support, renewable energy has grown at an astonishing pace in recent years thanks to its plummeting cost. India, for example, has more than doubled its stock of wind and solar power in the last five years, driven less by sustainability concerns than by clean energy’s potential for cost-effectively meeting citizens’ pressing development needs. However, the low prices of wind and solar projects disguise the structural costs renewable energy poses for grids when deployed at larger scales. The intermittent, unpredictable nature of the electricity generated by such technologies—in contrast to the stable, on-demand flow of power from traditional fossil fuel generation—requires fundamental changes to how countries invest in and operate their grids. For India, one of the most important steps for coping with the variability of these new sources of energy will be better coordination of the flow of power between the country’s disparate state-run grids. By increasing the volume of energy traded between state utilities, periods of surplus power in one region can compensate for deficits in others, making for a more stable and reliable supply of renewable energy—one that can better displace expensive and polluting fossil fuels. Yet, while such reforms would be difficult under the best of circumstances, they will be particularly challenging given the unique dysfunctions of India’s power sector. With its politically compromised, perennially loss-making electricity distribution companies already struggling to keep the lights on, bolder change appears unlikely. Deeper reforms to India’s power sector are therefore prerequisites to adopting solutions like regional coordination that can ensure the continued growth of renewable energy. The good news is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national popularity and the dominance of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the state level offer the country’s leaders an opportunity to reform the power sector where others have failed. But to take advantage of this opening, Modi must go beyond his modus operandi by investing in incremental institutional solutions rather than one-and-done technical fixes and by serving as a coordinator for India’s states rather than legislating by central fiat. Deeper reforms enabling India to maintain its rapid expansion of renewable energy not only would provide clean, low-cost power to its people but also would help the world offset the failings of more laggard countries, perhaps even putting back within reach the Paris Agreement’s more aggressive target of keeping global warming to within 1.5 degrees Celsius. But the hardest part of this ambitious task lies ahead—in ending the vicious cycles that have plagued India’s power sector for decades.
Topic:
Climate Change, Pollution, Fossil Fuels, and Energy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

99. Understanding the Encryption Debate in India

Author:
Anirudh Burman and Prateek Jha
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Encryption has become a contentious instrument for protecting the security and confidentiality of online communication. Rapid digitalization in the past decade has led to the proliferation of domestic and foreign online communication services that use encryption and, consequently, pose challenges to national security bodies and law enforcement agencies (LEAs). To address these challenges, the Indian government introduced new regulations in February 2021. These regulations require large social media platforms to enable traceability, or the ability to provide information concerning the originator of online communications. Technology companies and privacy activists have opposed such a move on the grounds that traceability would require the breaking of the end-to-end encryption used by many online communication platforms like WhatsApp and therefore would compromise the security of online communications on such platforms. This traceability requirement, however, is only the latest development in a drawn-out, contentious debate over the use of encryption. The contestation between maintaining higher degrees of online security and issuing new rules to grant technological exceptions for security agencies and LEAs is not specific to India. One of the first serious discussions on the issue took place in the United States in the 1990s, when public opposition warded off an early government attempt to sidestep encryption protections with a court order. In the past decade, the use of encryption has only grown more pronounced. The revelations that the United States’ National Security Agency was collecting vast amounts of communications data led to the introduction and increased adoption of end-to-end encryption for online communications. End-to-end encryption is now used widely by online communication platforms like WhatsApp, Signal, and Threema. Its use presents law enforcement and national security agencies with new challenges. Even though these agencies today have greater and easier access to more information than ever before, the absolute confidentiality provided by encrypted online communication platforms makes it harder for these agencies to engage in real-time surveillance to investigate crimes and identity wrongdoers. While some policymakers from India and other countries argue that encryption must only be weakened to solve specific problems, most experts agree that, as of today, there is no technological solution that would weaken encryption for specific law enforcement and national security purposes, while managing to maintain preexisting levels of security and confidentiality for general use. The introduction of any mechanism for specific access would, it is claimed, introduce both known and unknown vulnerabilities into these communications platforms. Such a mechanism would have a systemic effect on all online communication dependent on encryption for ensuring security and confidentiality. In India, these developments create challenges in specific ways. For example, India reports the highest number of child pornography cases worldwide, and encrypted communications makes it difficult to identify culpable parties. Similarly, as India has digitized rapidly, there has been a surfeit of fake and offensive online news that has, in some cases, led to mob lynchings. In addition, terrorist networks have been found to be using encrypted communication channels while planning and carrying out terrorist attacks in India. Over the years, the Indian government’s approach to encryption has responded to these concerns in a variety of ways. Indian financial regulators mandated the use of encryption for banking and financial services as they realized the security of such transactions was best protected through encryption. At the same time, the Indian government prohibited telecom operators from implementing bulk or mass encryption in telecommunication services. Starting in 2015, the government introduced different regulatory proposals requiring that messaging platforms and other communication service providers provide plaintext copies of communications to Indian government agencies on request. These proposals, however, faced significant opposition and were withdrawn. Earlier in 2021, the Indian government’s new rules requiring traceability have been officially notified. The mechanisms through which they will be implemented are not yet clear. It is also unclear if these rules are the last demands the Indian government will make to weaken encryption, or whether further demands will arise in the future. To weigh the relative benefits and drawbacks of the Indian government’s proposal, analysts should consider relevant factors such as (but not limited to) whether such changes will offer law enforcement officials the access they desire, how the security of encrypted communications will be affected, and how citizens’ civil liberties will be impacted, among others.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Science and Technology, Law Enforcement, Digitalization, and Encryption
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

100. India’s Fog of Misunderstanding Surrounding Nepal–China Relations

Author:
Vijay Gokhale
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
India’s postindependence ties with Nepal were predicated on the intimate cultural and historical links between the two countries. As India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, noted, “though Nepal was an independent country, it was very closely allied to India in culture and tradition and we did not look upon it as a foreign country.” New Delhi also regarded China as an “interloper” in Nepal in 1950 who threatened India’s security and interests in the region, ignoring at least a century of Sino-Nepali history centering around Tibet. This paper argues that New Delhi’s close relationship with Nepal, bound in history and culture, and the misperception about China’s relations with Nepal before 1950 have contributed to a skewed understanding of Sino-Nepali relations. The Working Paper looks at the impact that New Delhi’s misperceptions of Sino-Nepali relations, termed the “fog of misunderstanding,” has had in the context of the triangular relations between China, India, and Nepal. The paper is divided into four sections arranged chronologically. The first section looks at the historical Sino-Nepali relationship from the mid-eighteenth to the mid-twentieth centuries. It establishes that this early relationship was centered on Tibet. While the Gorkha kings of Nepal sought to preserve their trade privileges in the region, the Chinese were concerned about the security of their southwestern frontier. Notably though, Beijing’s concern with security does not appear to have extended into any desire to conquer Nepal. This section also touches upon British India’s policy toward Nepal in the nineteenth century, and the subsequent approach that the government of independent India took in the first few years, without an adequate appreciation of Kathmandu’s history with China. As a consequence, India developed a suspicious attitude toward Beijing’s desire to re-establish ties with Kathmandu after the Chinese Civil War, and shaped its policy toward Nepal with this factor in mind. The second section delves into Indian and Chinese policies toward Nepal in the period from 1955 until the end of the monarchy in 2008. It showcases how, during this long period, the three kings of Nepal sought to leverage their ties with China in order to maintain some semblance of balance and how China, in turn, followed a limited but strategic approach that was centered on the kings. The fog of misunderstanding continued to shroud India’s attitude to Nepal-China relations during this period and, consequently, India’s Nepal policy lacked a working template to manage relations with a smaller neighbor sandwiched between India and China in a way that would preserve New Delhi’s influence in a positive way. In contrast to China’s political approach, New Delhi fluctuated between the monarchy and an assortment of democratic political parties, suggestive of a provincial approach in New Delhi’s dealing with Kathmandu. As a result, China’s approach ensured that its main objective in Nepal, namely the security of its southwestern frontier, was secured with a relatively low-risk and low-cost strategy. The third section deals with the aftermath of the fall of the Nepali monarchy, 2008 to 2016. During this important period, New Delhi had a fresh opportunity to reset ties by providing the support to democratic forces in Nepal, that could have resulted in a transformation of the Indo-Nepali ties. However, India appeared to hew to its traditional policy. China, on the other hand, quickly built new ties with the post-monarchical dispensation. India’s perceived actions as a result of the adoption of the new constitution of Nepal plunged Indo-Nepali ties to a nadir. It seems to have pushed Kathmandu to strengthen its relationship with China. This section of the paper also outlines the changing nature of China’s policy and objectives in Nepal, especially in the second decade of the twenty-first century, and its possible implications on the future course of the triangular relationship, as well as for India-Nepal relations. It postulates that under President Xi Jinping, China’s policy toward Nepal has shifted from protecting its periphery to a broader goal of bringing Nepal under its strategic control. This section highlights the political and economic levers that Beijing is using to build a preeminent position in Nepal. The paper concludes with an assessment of options available to all three countries going forward, and India’s options in Nepal in the face of China’s new policy in the region. It suggests that a decisive reset in policy toward Nepal is required to restore healthy relations that are based on mutual respect and mutual sensitivity. New Delhi may need to re-orient its thinking toward Nepal in the context of triangular relations, including on the boundary issue and the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship that have been long-standing irritants in the India-Nepal relationship. Nepal, for its part, should also reflect carefully on whether its leveraging of China might become counterproductive in the light of changing strategic balance in its vicinity, and the implications of giving up the policy of balance for one that tilts decisively toward Beijing. The paper concludes that there is sufficient scope and opportunity for course correction by India, and that through sustained efforts India may be able to preserve its influence and security in Nepal and counter China’s expanding footprint.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, Asia, and Nepal