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Begin New Search Topic Climate Change Political Geography Global Focus Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 10 Years Publication Year within 5 Years

1. Carbon border adjustments, climate clubs, and subsidy races when climate policies vary

Author:
Kimberly Clausing and Catherine Wolfram
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Jurisdictions adopt heterogeneous climate policies that vary in terms of both ambition and policy approach, with some jurisdictions pricing carbon and others subsidizing clean production. We distinguish two types of policy spillovers associated with diverse policy approaches to climate change. First, when countries have different levels of climate ambition, free riders will benefit at the expense of more committed countries. Second, when countries pursue different approaches, carbon-intensive producers within cost-imposing jurisdictions will be at a relative competitive disadvantage compared with producers in subsidizing jurisdictions. Carbon border adjustments and climate clubs are attempts to respond to these policy spillovers, but when countries have divergent policy approaches, one policy alone will not be able to address both types of spillovers. We also consider the policy dynamics that result from carbon border adjustments and climate clubs; both have the potential to encourage upward harmonization of climate policy, but they come with risks. Further, the pressures of international competition in the presence of divergent climate policy approaches may result in subsidy races, which come with their own potential risks and benefits.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Carbon Emissions, and Production
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Armed group opportunism in the face of recent crises: COVID-19 and climate change

Author:
Siobhan O'Neil
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies—climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and actions of the Boko Haram in Nigeria and Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) dissident groups in Colombia in response to COVID and climatic shifts. The paper uses assessment methodology to look into unique survey evidence from each country in order to determine the public impact of armed group decision-making and responses to these emergencies. It also considers the potential policy implications of the findings presented herein.
Topic:
Climate Change, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, COVID-19, and Decision-Making
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. Climate Protection Litigation on the Rise

Author:
Szymon Zaręba
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the last several years, national courts and international institutions have increasingly begun to treat conservative or climate-adverse actions by states as violations of their obligations under international law and human rights. This has been followed by some countries more affected by climate change and engaged in international bodies to put more pressure on Global North states to protect the climate. The sympathetic attitude of international courts towards such complaints may, in the long term, force the need for increased climate ambition or even compensation payments by, among others, Poland.
Topic:
Climate Change, Human Rights, International Law, Courts, and Litigation
Political Geography:
Europe, Poland, and Global Focus

4. Section 232 reloaded: the false promise of the transatlantic ‘climate club’ for steel and aluminium

Author:
David Kleimann
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In using the removal of Section 232 ‘national security’ tariffs on steel and aluminium imports as a bargaining chip, the United States demands that the European Union engage in negotiations on “global steel and aluminium arrangements to restore market-oriented conditions and address carbon intensity”. The US demand has reportedly been inspired by a blueprint that would establish an international institutional arrangement – labelled a ‘climate club’ – which would externalise market-access restrictions afforded by US Section 232 tariffs to the customs borders of club members. While the declared objective is to incentivise non-members to adopt low-carbon steel (and aluminium) production methods the US blueprint suffers from various design flaws including inefficient incentives, WTO inconsistency and incompatibility with the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. The effectiveness of the proposed US scheme is severely compromised by the plethora of policy objectives it pursues, which go far beyond the goal of incentivising industrial decarbonisation in third countries, including secondary (ie protectionism) and tertiary (ie global power competition with China) objectives. The initial negotiation proposal submitted by the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to European Commission trade negotiators incorporates many if not all the problematic elements of this blueprint, setting the US on a collision course with the negotiation proposal put forward by the European Commission. This paper concludes that the adoption of the scheme proposed by USTR would result in a step backwards for international climate and trade cooperation, whereas not adopting the EU proposal would make for a missed opportunity. Given the sharply diverging negotiation positions and associated respective domestic constraints on both sides, however, policymakers should start to engage stakeholders now to manage expectations towards a low-ambition negotiation result, if any.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Industrial Policy, Governance, European Union, Economy, Trade Policy, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Most green funds do not have a sustainability impact

Author:
Jan Fichtner, Robin Jaspert, and Johannes Petry
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
ESG funds are growing rapidly. However, their impact on climate change mitigation and sustainability remains unclear. Recent research on the transmission mechanisms from sustainable finance to the real economy has identified key shortcomings that need to be addressed in order to reduce greenwashing and make these funds truly green.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Capitalism, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Bridging the Gap: A "Sustainable Food Seal"

Author:
Paul E. III Schickler, Francesca Debiase, Sally Rockey, Jennifer Goldston, Peggy Tsai Yih, and Natalie Burdsall
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Abstract:
Climate change is wrecking havoc on the global food supply chain, drawing attention to the benefits of sustainable practices for preserving the food system. As a result, consumers are starting to shift their purchasing behaviors, opting for more sustainable food options that might have a smaller carbon footprint or use fewer resources. To help inform their purchasing decisions, consumers are demanding more information on how and where their food is produced, but they are largely unable to find a labeling system with clear and comprehensive standards; existing "green" and "eco" labels are often private certification schemes that focus on only one aspect of sustainability. A "sustainable food seal" is a potential solution. A label that would standardize a food product’s eco-score to reduce consumer confusion, sustainable food seals take an inclusive approach to food labeling that use comparable metrics that involve all parts of the food value chain—from farm to fork—and offer the opportunity to validate practices and empower stakeholders to support a more sustainable food supply chain. Based on a November 2022 roundtable, the first in a series of regular convenings, the white paper “Bridging the Gap: A ‘Sustainable Food Seal’ Needed to Improve Transparency between Farmers and Consumers about Sustainable Food Production” explores current food labeling practices, identifies challenges to label standardization and voluntary adoption, and proposes potential actions and strategies to provide insight into the role a “sustainable food seal” can play in enhancing sustainability through food.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Environment, Food, Food Security, Sustainability, Farming, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Global Terrorism Index 2023

Author:
Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:
The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) using data from TerrorismTracker and other sources. TerrorismTracker provides event records on terrorist attacks since 1 January 2007. The dataset contains almost 66,000 terrorist incidents for the period 2007 to 2022. In 2022, deaths from terrorism fell by nine per cent to 6,701 deaths and is now 38 per cent lower than at its peak in 2015. The fall in deaths was mirrored by a reduction in the number of incidents, with attacks declining by almost 28 per cent from 5,463 in 2021 to 3,955 in 2022. However, if Afghanistan was removed from the index, terrorism deaths would have increased by four per cent. Afghanistan remained the country most impacted by terrorism for the fourth consecutive year, despite attacks and deaths falling by 75 per cent and 58 per cent respectively. The GTI does not include acts of state repression and violence by state actors and, as such, acts committed by the Taliban are no longer included in the scope of the report since they took control of the government.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Science and Technology, Terrorism, Finance, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, North Africa, and Global Focus

8. It’s not a Sprint, it’s a Marathon: Reviewing Governmental R&D Support for Environmental Innovation

Author:
Leonie Meißner, Sonja Peterson, and Finn Ole Semrau
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
In a race against excessive global warming, the world must accelerate the development and adoption of environmental innovations (EIs). EIs are crucial in decarbonizing the economy and meeting the net-zero targets. In this literature review, we delve into the role of governments in promoting EIs across stages of maturity and the likeliness of such support to reduce emissions and mitigation costs. Various theoretical justifications, such as knowledge externalities, dynamic increasing returns, path dependency and incomplete information, highlight the necessity to promote EI through governmental Research and Development (R&D) support. While emission pricing remains the most cost-efficient climate policy, it fails as a stand-alone instrument to sufficiently encourage EI. Accordingly, the optimal approach is a policy mix complementing emission pricing with governmental R&D support. The theoretical finding is backed by empirical studies on the development and deployment of renewable energies, which also show that investment in R&D can effectively reduce emissions and mitigation costs. By combining theoretical and empirical research, the review concludes by examining two pivotal policy actions aimed at accelerating the take-off of EIs: The US Inflation Reduction Act and the European Green New Deal Industrial Plan. We evaluate their specific aspects and limitations to effectively and efficiently contribute to decarbonization.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Innovation, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Planetary health: A holistic vision for people and the planet

Author:
Danielle Brady
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
The nexus between health and the environment has been underscored by crises such as COVID-19 and the climate crisis. As awareness of policy interlinkages grows, so does the need for more coordinated EU and national policymaking. Calls for a more holistic approach have long been recognised, but the pandemic has further emphasised the importance of dismantling existing barriers in policymaking to improve the health status of people, animals, and the planet. This Discussion Paper, funded by Sitra, the Finnish Innovation Fund, advocates for implementing a planetary health approach across all levels of governance to encourage transdisciplinary action and puts forward ten recommendations: Pursue coordinated policymaking by breaking down silos. Appoint an Executive Vice President for the Well-being Economy. Plan and implement national roadmaps and establish common indicators. Create best practices platforms. Adopt planetary health for health systems. Promote education on planetary health. Adopt a European-wide communication campaign. Invest in research and innovation. Foster the integration of the European Health Data Space with future data spaces. Work with international partners to adopt a global planetary health approach. Planetary health offers many benefits for health and the environment. However, without concentrated efforts to move beyond the traditional siloed approach to policymaking, the benefits may never be realised.
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, European Union, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. WTO 2025: Getting back to the negotiating table

Author:
Alan Wm. Wolff
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The negotiation of multilateral agreements has stalled at the World Trade Organization (WTO). The action is among groups of like-minded WTO Members, either regionally or in open plurilateral agreements (OPAs) in Geneva at the WTO. There is currently no consensus among WTO Members to include plurilateral agreements officially in the set of WTO agreements. Many additional challenges require multilateral—that is, global—agreements: the pandemic, food security, and climate change, among them. A breakthrough is needed to get WTO negotiations back on track.
Topic:
Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Food Security, Multilateralism, COVID-19, and WTO
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. The role of competition in the transition to climate neutrality

Author:
Georg Zachmann
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The transition to climate neutrality requires the reallocation of production factors from polluting activities to non-polluting activities. The main push for this reallocation will come from governmental decarbonisation targets that are translated into stringent climate policy tools, such as carbon pricing and emissions standards. But the complex process of recombining production factors will require the coordination of millions of individuals and firms. The efficiency of this recombination process will be a main driver of the cost of the transition. Based on a consistent analytical framework, I argue that much more political attention should be paid to the markets and regulators that guide the re-allocation of production factors, to bring them in line with a carbon-neutral economy at the best service of European consumers. Three main issues should be considered: 1. The transition will change the role and efficiency of markets in allocating resources; 2. Competitive markets can make the transition more efficient; 3. In some areas, a too-narrow focus on competition can be detrimental, and needs to be discussed. To improve the institutions for resource allocation in the transition, policymakers should revisit three levels of intervention: 1) competition rules and enforcement should be adjusted to meet the new challenges of the transition; 2) efficient markets that are central to a climate-neutral economy – such as for electricity, emission rights or circular logistics – need to be properly designed; 3) the advantages and disadvantages of more direct state control in specific sectors should be revisited in light of the challenges of the transition. In summary, policymakers need to get away from simplistic state-or-market narratives. The focus should be on developing politically feasible frameworks for leveraging the benefits of competition for efficient resource allocation in the transition. Institutions should not focus solely on static efficiency, but must forcefully encourage investments in new systems and innovation. The role of institutions that determine resource allocation in the transition is an underappreciated but crucial area for future research and policy action.
Topic:
Climate Change, Institutions, Pollution, Carbon Emissions, Neutrality, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. We Will Build the Future: A Plan to Save the Planet

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Under the leadership of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America – People’s Trade Treaty (ALBA-TCP), Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research partnered with 26 research institutes from around the world to draft A Plan to Save the Planet. This living, evolving document puts forward a vision for the present and the immediate future centred on twelve key themes: democracy and the world order, the environment, finance, health, housing, food, education, work, care, women, culture, and the digital world. Dossier no. 48 includes and elaborates on the Plan and lays out our orientation, principles, and horizon.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Green Technology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Gender Dimensions of Climate Insecurity

Author:
Elizabeth Smith
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Gender is a traditionally under researched dimension in scholarship on climate and security. However, as recent research has noted, it is a variable that cannot only shape how different groups of individuals are affected by climate-related security risks. Gendered norms and power structures can also increase or mitigate the likelihood of climate-related security risks. This SIPRI Insights contributes to the growing body of research on gender, climate and security by analysing the gender dimensions of the four pathways of climate insecurity featured in past SIPRI studies: (a) livelihood deterioration, (b) migration and changing mobility, (c) tactical considerations of armed groups and (d) elite exploitation and resource mismanagement. It reviews literature to highlight how gender can influence resilience and risk for different groups of men and women within the pathways. Where relevant, it also discusses how gender may serve as an instigating factor for the respective pathways. The paper stresses the need to critically understand the different and interlinked experiences of diverse groups of men and women in the pathway contexts and to ensure equal leadership and participation of all affected groups in addressing climate-related security risks.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Risk, Peace, and Gender
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Monetary Policy for the Climate? A Money View Perspective on Green Central Banking

Author:
Jakob Vestergaard
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Central banks can potentially influence the investment decisions of private financial institutions, which in turn will create incentives towards green technology adoption and development of lower emission business models. This paper examines how monetary policies can be deployed to promote a greening of finance. To guide the efforts, the paper mobilizes the Money View literature. This enables a comparative assessment of different monetary policy options. The main finding is that a promising way forward for green monetary policy is to adopt a strategy of expanding collateral eligibility through positive screening and widening haircut spreads to change relative incentives in favor of green over brown assets.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Navigating the Crises in European Energy

Author:
Michael Grubb
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The energy crisis engulfing Europe is a crisis of both gas and electricity markets, with huge cost impacts on consumers across all European countries. In Britain, half of typical household energy expenditure arises from electricity. This paper examines how the cost of gas-powered generation feeds through to electricity bills, on the principle of marginal cost pricing, setting the price for most of the time though it accounts for only about 40% of GB generation. Combined with the steep decline in wind and solar costs over the past decade, this has resulted in an unprecedented degree of ‘cost inversion’ in the electricity system. We offer estimates of the increase of revenues across the wholesale market, and outline five principles for reform for addressing the combined challenges of energy costs and accelerating low-carbon transition.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Green Technology, and Energy Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. Climate Finance Effectiveness: Six Challenging Trends

Author:
Beata Cichocka and Ian Mitchell
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
This paper identifies and explores a number of challenges in using international public climate finance effectively towards contributing to low-carbon and resilient growth in lower- and middle-income countries. We explore key quantitative and qualitative trends in the climate finance architecture, including predictability of disbursements, affordability and concessionality of funding, provider proliferation and project fragmentation, implementation via modalities supporting recipient ownership, and the degree to which climate-related interventions are evaluated. Our research considers these trends against globally agreed principles of development effectiveness, with the aim of improving understandings of both the common and the climate-specific challenges within development finance. Ultimately, we find that climate-related development finance faces a number of challenges relative to other official development flows, including significantly lower disbursement ratios, a higher share of finance provided through debt instruments—and a rising share of loans to lower-income countries assessed as being at high risk of debt distress, a faster pace in proliferation of providers and shrinking project sizes, and fewer efforts to systematically evaluate impacts of interventions. Each of these areas will need to be tackled by public climate finance providers to ensure that the available funding is used towards climate objectives effectively. These and other issues related to the quality of climate finance should also be considered during the design of the new quantitative climate finance target under the UNFCCC to ensure that the structure of the goal promotes accountability and increases recipients’ ability to trust in the climate finance architecture.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Building a Portfolio of Pull Financing Mechanisms for Climate and Development

Author:
Ranil Dissanayake and Bernat Camps Adrogue
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Pull financing is a powerful but underused mechanism for incentivising progress on hard-to-tackle social problems for which innovation or the take-up of innovation may be part of the solution. It should become part of the ongoing landscape for climate and development work. This paper sets out the specific design features for a portfolio of pull financing mechanisms to support the accelerated development of socially valuable innovations with both climate and development implications. It considers the institutional structure required to manage such a novel mechanism, a process for finding and developing a potential application, and the objectives pull financing should pursue. It then looks in detail at seven applications of pull financing in the climate and development space, each selected to illustrate the potential and challenges of the approach. We conclude by setting out how to construct a high-ambition portfolio of pull financing projects that is both tractable and attractive to potential funders.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Let Them Eat Carbon

Author:
Vijaya Ramachandran and Arthur Baker
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The push for the World Bank and others to link their investments to addressing climate concerns stems from a fear that, unless developing countries take action to decarbonize now, their economic growth will lead to vast emissions that will derail all global efforts to limit climate change. This approach, which treats low- and middle-income countries as a monolith, is unhelpful to the conversation about climate change. To understand better where emissions are concentrated and how to address them, we projected carbon dioxide emissions to 2035—the point at which observers believe they will level off in most countries due to technological advances and accumulating wealth—under some simple assumptions. Emissions from the world’s poorest 64 countries, those which get IDA loans, will remain very low for decades to come, even if their economies grow rapidly and without action to reduce emissions. Pressuring low- and lower-middle-income countries to replace plans for gas power with solar or wind energy will have limited climate benefits compared to replacing coal generation in richer countries. It is just more efficient—and just—to focus on climate mitigation where emissions are high, and on poverty reduction where poverty is high. And given that there is no sign of an increase in aid spending, especially in the poorest countries, rich countries must not cannibalize development aid or reinvent the development finance architecture
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, World Bank, Finance, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Behavior Change in the Face of Disaster Risk Finance

Author:
Theodore Ezike
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Feinstein International Center, Tufts University
Abstract:
Large-scale Disaster Risk Finance (DRF) mechanisms are relatively new tools in the field of humanitarian assistance and anticipatory action that can have significant positive effects on disaster recovery. However, there is a lack of analysis on how DRF can affect behavior or risk perception, which is important for countries to understand. Drawing on findings from similar programs, such as community health and microfinance, provided insights on areas where DRF may have impact on behavior. The available research indicates that disasters make people risk averse and that insurance and other DRF mechanisms can enable beneficial outcomes. Trust in public institutions, ideally the ones that manage DRF, alongside accurate and timely information from government or other relevant actors, is needed for acceptable levels of risk to be communicated and for appropriate corresponding actions to be taken.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Disaster Management, and Humanitarian Response
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. The Price of Speculation: Cryptocurrencies and Climate Change

Author:
Izaura Solipa and Gerald Epstein
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Cryptocurrencies are a form of digital currency whose popularity has rapidly increased over the past decade. What distinguishes them from other electronic currencies is their underlying technology known as the blockchain, a decentralized public ledger in which transactions among the network peers are accurately and securely recorded. The validation and mining process, where new coins are issued, is highly computationally intensive and thus requires vast amounts of energy. The literature estimates energy consumption levels of the cryptocurrency mining to be as high as those of countries such as Angola, Iceland or Cuba, and a corresponding emission of at least 3-15 million tons of CO2. We discuss these estimated impacts of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on both energy levels and the environment, and then outline alternative applications that could promote climate change mitigation. We argue that despite the latter applications and the possible benefits from the technology, particularly in the energy sector, the financial uses of blockchain are creating significant environmental costs without any clear social or economic benefit stemming from this largely speculative activity.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Economy, Cryptocurrencies, Blockchain, Digital Currency, and Speculation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

21. To Prevent the Collapse of Biodiversity, the World Needs a New Planetary Politics

Author:
Stewart Patrick
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The planet is in the midst of an environmental emergency, and the world is only tinkering at the margins. Humanity’s addiction to fossil fuels and voracious appetite for natural resources are accelerating climate change and degrading ecosystems on land and sea, threatening the integrity of the biosphere and thus the survival of our own species. Given these risks, it is shocking that the multilateral system has failed to respond more forcefully. Belatedly, the United States, the EU, the UK, and some other advanced market democracies have adopted more aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets, but their ability to deliver is suspect, while critical emerging economies like China and India have resisted accelerating their own decarbonization.1 Even more concerning, existing multilateral commitments, including on climate change, fail to address the other half of the planet’s ecological crisis: collapsing biodiversity, which the leaders of the Group of 7 nations rightly call an “equally important existential threat.”
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Multilateralism, and Biodiversity
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. The portfolio of economic policies needed to fight climate change

Author:
Olivier Blanchard, Christian Gollier, and Jean Tirole
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Climate change poses an existential threat. The authors argue that carbon pricing and green research and development (R&D) support are good economics, but their implementation can be improved. Even if carbon prices are generalized and given more substance, green R&D is still likely to be smaller than needed. Much more money must be spent on it than is now the case, and this money must be properly allocated in order to have an impact. Moreover, done well, other policies, such as standards, bans, and targeted subsidies, can be good economics. But they have often been incoherent and their implementation is delicate. The authors also argue that domestic and international compensation is key to the acceptability of efficient policies. Finally, although a country’s emissions will not materially alter the course of climate change, individual countries can still show the way ahead: They can develop technologies that can be used by other, poorer, countries. They can provide leadership/momentum on global agreements and on the need to fund climate change policies in developing economies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Green Technology, Carbon Emissions, and Research and Development
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. How carbon tariffs and climate clubs can slow global warming

Author:
Shantayanan Devarajan, Delfin S. Go, Sherman Robinson, and Karen Thierfelder
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Slowing global warming requires countries to reduce carbon emissions, which imposes costs on their economies. To be effective, most countries must agree collectively to participate (e.g., the Paris Agreement, COP26). However, every country has an incentive not to comply and still reap the benefits of other countries’ actions—a classic free-rider problem. This paper evaluates recent recommendations to use trade policy to solve the free-rider problem associated with climate mitigation strategies. It shows that the European Union’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM tariffs) are effective at offsetting the unfair competitive advantage of noncompliant countries in the markets of compliant countries but have little effect on the trade of noncompliant countries, who can divert trade to other noncompliers. CBAM tariffs alone have little impact on global CO2 emissions. The paper also examines “climate clubs” (coalitions of countries that agree to impose carbon taxes or other equivalent policies and impose punitive tariffs on non-club members to induce them to join the club). It finds that punitive climate club tariffs can be effective in inflicting significant damage on the economies of nonmembers, providing a strong incentive for them to join the club. The paper identifies trade dependence between club and non-club members as an important consideration for the success of a climate club. Club members that are strongly linked to non-club members suffer losses when the club punishes non-club members, which would make them hesitant to impose punitive tariffs on a major nonmember trading partner.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Tariffs, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. A reform strategy to transform energy: From piecemeal to systemwide change

Author:
Steven Fries
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change Mitigation highlights the vast gap between climate change mitigation actions and climate stabilization goals. But its broad policy prescriptions are likely to leave policymakers pondering what specific actions to take. Informed by accumulating evidence on transforming aspects of energy systems like power generation from solar and wind resources and battery electric cars, this paper develops a more pointed energy reform strategy than that of the IPCC to deliver the necessary systemwide changes. It makes the case for two unorthodox policies. One is for governments to provide, in addition to R&D supports, market-creating supports for early deployment of low-carbon technologies in initial markets. The second is to sequence emissions pricing after innovation and market-creating supports and differentiate this pricing across key energy sectors rather than imposing one economywide price. Compared with a single price, targeting higher emissions pricing on sectors that are costlier to decarbonize still promotes cost-effective emission cuts but limits adverse distributional impacts. The paper also considers nonprice barriers to change and ways to coordinate domestic reforms across countries.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Reform, Carbon Emissions, and Energy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. Carbon dioxide removal in a global analytical climate economy

Author:
Martin Quaas, Felix Meier, Wilfried Rickels, and Christian Traeger
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Net-zero climate policies foresee deployment of atmospheric carbon dioxide removal wit geo-logical, terrestrial, or marine carbon storage. While terrestrial and geological storage would be governed under the framework of national property rights, marine storage implies that carbon is transferred from one global common, the atmosphere, to another global common, the ocean, in particular if storage exceeds beyond coastal applications. This paper investigates the option of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and storage in different (marine) reservoir types in an analytic climate-economy model, and derives implications for optimal mitigation efforts and CDR deployment. We show that the introduction of CDR lowers net energy input and net emis-sions over the entire time path. Furthermore, CDR affects the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) via changes in total economic output but leaves the analytic structure of the SCC unchanged. In the first years after CDR becomes available the SCC is lower and in later years it is higher com-pared to a standard climate-economy model. Carbon dioxide emissions are first higher and then lower relative to a world without CDR. The paper provides the basis for the analysis of decentralized and potentially non-cooperative CDR policies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economy, Carbon Tax, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. The impact of trade and trade policy on the environment and the climate: A review

Author:
Gabriel Felbermayr and Sonja Peterson
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
While international trade can offer gains from specialization and access to a wider range of products, it is also closely interlinked with global environmental problems, above all, anthropogenic climate change. This survey provides a structured overview of the economic literature on the interaction between environmental outcomes, trade, environmental policy and trade policy. In this endeavor, it covers approaches reaching from descriptive data analysis based on Input‐Output tables, over quantitative trade models and econometric studies to game‐theoretic analyses. Addressed issues are in particular the emission content of trade and emissions along value chains, the relocation of dirty firms and environmental impacts abroad, impacts of specific trade polices (such as trade agreements or tariffs) or environmental policy (such as Border Carbon Adjustment), transportation emissions, as well as the role of firms. Across the different topics covered, the paper also tries to identify avenues for future research, with a particular focus on extending quantitative trade and environment models.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. The Consequences of Unilateral Withdrawals from the Paris Agreement

Author:
Mario Larch and Joschka Wanner
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
International cooperation is at the core of multilateral climate policy. How is its effectiveness harmed by individual countries dropping out of the global mitigation effort? We develop a multisector structural trade model with emissions from production and a constant elasticity of fossil fuel supply function to simulate the consequences of unilateral withdrawals from the Paris Agreement. Taking into account both direct and leakage effects, we őnd that a US withdrawal would eliminate more than a third of the world emissions reduction (31.8% direct effect and 6.4% leakage effect), while a potential Chinese withdrawal lowers the world emission reduction by 24.1% (11.9% direct effect and 12.2% leakage effect). The substantial leakage is primarily driven by technique effects induced by falling international fossil fuel prices.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Paris Agreement
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

28. Global Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Capital Allocation Strategies Between Impact Ambitions and Measurement Challenges

Author:
Sara Lovisolo
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Responsible investment as a capital allocation strategy has evolved from its ethical and political origins to embrace science-based considerations and outcome-based approaches in the context of the urgent action required in response to climate change and the Sustainable Development Goals. This shift can pose both threats and opportunities to companies seeking to get access to a diversified investor base. The investment environment companies are faced with varies depending on the geographical context and the investment style of investors. In particular, the rise of passive investment – that is the replication of financial indices in the construction of fund portfolios – is an important tool for the integration of sophisticated environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in investment strategies. The US, Europe, Asia-Pacific and Africa present different levels of maturity and strengths in the space of responsible investment, calling for ad-hoc responses from investee companies. Across all jurisdictions the challenge of effectively measuring the impact of responsible investment is one investors and policymakers alike are still grappling with. Paper prepared in the framework of the IAI-Eni Strategic Partnership, July 2021.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Political Economy, Foreign Direct Investment, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. Stranded Fossil-Fuel Assets Translate into Major Losses for Investors in Advanced Economies

Author:
Gregor Semieniuk, Philip B. Holden, Jean-Francois Mercure, Pablo Salas, Hector Pollitt, Katharine Jobson, Pim Vercoulen, Unnada Chewpreecha, Neil Edwards, and Jorge E Viñuales
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The distribution of ownership of transition risk associated with stranded fossil-fuel assets remains poorly understood. We compute global stranded assets of US$1.4 trillion in the upstream oil and gas sector as expectations change to be consistent with stated climate policies. We trace the equity risk ownership from these 43,439 assets through a global equity network of 1.8 million companies to their ultimate owners. Most of the market risk falls on private investors, overwhelmingly in OECD countries, including substantial exposure through pension funds. Financial markets are exposed to a US$690 billion correction, comparable to the mispricing that triggered the 2007-08 crisis. The ownership distribution also shows the large stake OECD investors have in the continued operation of fossil-fuel facilities incompatible with climate change mitigation goals.
Topic:
Climate Change, Political Economy, Economy, Investment, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. Nature-based solutions to development and climate change challenges: Understanding ecosystem-based adaptation approaches

Author:
Marie Ladekjær Gravesen and Mikkel Funder
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Nature-based Solutions (NbS) to climate- and development-related challenges have recently gained attention in development cooperation. Among other, approaches that fall under the NbS umbrella include Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA), Ecosystem-based Mitigation (EbM) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). This new DIIS Working Paper focuses on nature-based solutions to climate change adaptation, EbA. It provides an overview of selected lessons learnt from EbA in the context of development cooperation, with a particular emphasis on the opportunities and risks regarding poverty alleviation and rights. It generates learning for Danish development cooperation, including future programming under Denmark’s 2021 development strategy, in which NbS approaches are emphasised. However, the paper can also be read as a general discussion of experiences with EbA in the development context. The three-legged EbA approach focuses on human well-being, ecosystem management, and climate change adaptation. EbA has already been applied to a range of ecosystems, including the restoration of mangroves to shield them against storm and sea-level rises, the management of watersheds to protect against droughts and flooding, the management of rangelands to inhibit desertification and land degradation, and more sustainably managed fisheries and forestry to tackle food insecurity. EbA thus not only addresses the restoration of already degraded ecosystems, but also the sustainable use, management, and conservation of intact ecosystems. The paper provides a conceptual overview of EbA in relation to NbS, outlines the potential in using EbA approaches, and describes the landscape of the institutions and agencies that fund, promote and implement EbA. The paper then provides a synthesis of lessons learned from PES and REDD+ schemes that are of relevance to EbA. For instance, it is emphasised that many REDD+ measures have effectively existed as project islands that were not anchored in national or subnational planning and governance mechanisms. As a result, the conservation activities and socioeconomic benefits were often not effectively integrated or scaled up beyond small project sites. If comprehensively implemented, the EbA approach builds on these experiences by insuring full inclusion of stakeholders from all relevant sectors, as well as demanding full integration in existing policies, planning and governance practices from the ministry levels to sub-national governments. Among the final recommendations and possible entry points for Danish development cooperation, the paper highlights that the support must have a strong focus on ensuring that EbA is pro-poor (i.e. supports poverty alleviation) and rights-based (i.e. supports the rights of local resource users). Experience from EbA and related efforts show that EbA is not automatically pro-poor or supportive of local rights to natural resources and ecosystem services. In particular, there is insufficient attention to and knowledge of rights issues in EbA. Therefore, Danish development cooperation should help lead the way in ensuring that EbA takes a rights-based approach and supports poverty alleviation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Environment, Poverty, Natural Resources, Water, Food, Governance, Inequality, Investment, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Global Focus

31. How to rein in fossil fuel subsidies ? Towards a New WTO Regime

Author:
Simon Happersberger, Eleanor Mateo, and Selcukhan Ünekbas
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
Fossil fuel subsidies have negative consequences on the climate change, public budgets and and the transition to an environmentally friendly economy. Nevertheless, governments do not keep up with their commitments to phase out fossil fuel subsidies but misallocate again COVID-19 recovery funds in fossil fuel subsidies. This article provides an analysis of the current obstacles for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and the potential of the WTO to advance a reform on fossil fuel subsidies. It argues that the WTO can contribute to a fossil fuel subsidies reform by its technical expertise in regulating subsidies, by its broad membership and by its institutional setting. Under the current framework of the ASCM, WTO member can use existing mechanisms, such as the TPRM, to increase transparency in the short term and facilitate discussions on the scope of subsidies while mitigating impacts on vulnerable groups or sectors. This would provide the ground for governments to work towards a new and ambitious agreement to stop producer fossil fuels subsidies and phase out consumer fossil fuels subsidies in the mid-to-long-term. However, the phase out of consumer subsidies needs to be carefully designed and embedded, to avoid unintended consequences on energy access and vulnerable households.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Trade, Fossil Fuels, COVID-19, WTO, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

32. Electoral Rights of Environmentally Displaced Persons

Publication Date:
04-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:
Environmental disasters such as fires, droughts, floods, hurricanes and rising sea levels displace more and more people each year. According to the University of Oxford, the scale of displacement related to climate change is difficult to forecast but has been “estimated at between 50 and 200 million people by 2050, mostly in developing countries.” Climate change, other environmental crises and migration resulting from environmental displacement increase the likelihood of insecurity and conflict – and put democratic rights at risk. A new paper from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, Electoral Rights of Environmentally Displaced Persons, examines these questions and provides recommendations for election management bodies, governments, international organizations, political parties, the media, civil society organizations and displaced persons. Environmental challenges can exacerbate pre-existing vulnerabilities, including marginalization due to race, gender, disability and other identity factors. Widely ratified international treaties and resolutions obligate the state to provide accessible electoral processes, including special measures for women, persons with disabilities, youth, Indigenous peoples and racial and other minorities who may be at increased risk of marginalization. They also are critical agents to address the consequences of climate change. Electoral Rights of Environmentally Displaced Persons emphasizes how environmental challenges can exacerbate pre-existing vulnerabilities, including marginalization due to race, gender, disability and other identity factors. Displaced persons are key stakeholders. Those most affected by environmental problems need to be able to vote, run for office and engage with candidates and elected representatives to influence agendas, challenge policies and hold governments accountable. Political participation is particularly important in integrating them into their new environments to avoid conflict with host communities. Displaced persons can also bring skills, insights and talents that benefit their new communities.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Elections, Displacement, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

33. What Are the Distributional Implications of Climate Policies? Recent Evidence from Developing Countries

Author:
Daniele Malerba
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
To avoid catastrophic effects on natural and human systems, bold action needs to be taken rapidly to mitigate climate change. Despite this urgency, the currently implemented and planned climate mitigation policies are not sufficient to meet the global targets set in Paris in 2015. One reason for their current inadequate rollout is their perceived negative distributional effects: by increasing the price of goods, climate mitigation policies may increase both poverty and inequality. In addition, they may disrupt labour markets and increase unemployment, especially in sectors and areas dependent on fossil fuels. As a result, public protests in many countries have so far blocked or delayed the implementation of climate policies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, and Policy Implementation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

34. The Untapped Potential of Global Climate Funds for Investing in Social Protection

Author:
Mariya Aleksandrova
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Social protection plays a central role in achieving several of the social and environmental goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. As a result, this policy area is gaining increased recognition at the nexus of global climate change and development debates. Various social protection instruments are deemed to have the potential to increase the coping, adaptive and transformative capacities of vulnerable groups to face the impacts of climate change, facilitate a just transition to a green economy and help achieve environmental protection objectives, build intergenerational resilience and address non-economic climate impacts. Nevertheless, many developing countries that are vulnerable to climate change have underdeveloped social protection systems that are yet to be climate proofed. This can be done by incorporating climate change risks and opportunities into social protection policies, strategies and mechanisms. There is a large financing gap when it comes to increasing social protection coverage, establishing national social protection floors and mainstreaming climate risk into the sector. This necessitates substantial and additional sources of financing. This briefing paper discusses the current and future potential of the core multilateral climate funds established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in financing social protection in response to climate change. It further emphasises the importance of integrating social protection in countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to access climate finance and provides recommendations for governments, development cooperation entities and funding institutions.
Topic:
Climate Change, United Nations, Climate Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, and Investment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. Climate Change, Central Banking, and Financial Supervision: Beyond the Risk Exposure Approach

Author:
Yannis Dafermos
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
It is now increasingly accepted that central banks and financial supervisors can no longer ignore climate change. However, there is no consensus on how they should address climate issues. On the one hand, there is a view that central banks and financial supervisors should mainly contribute to the assessment of the exposure of the financial system to climate-related financial risks, considering at the same time the possibility of incorporating climate risks into monetary policy and financial supervision and regulation. On the other hand, it is argued that central banks and financial supervisors need to take action such that they contribute directly to the decarbonisation of our economies and the prevention of climate systemic risks. In this paper, I analyse the main premises and implications of these two approaches and I explain why a systemic risk approach is necessary in the age of climate emergency. I also discuss the challenges involved in a policy agenda aiming at the reduction of climate systemic risks and I outline how these challenges can be tackled.
Topic:
Climate Change, Finance, Risk, and Banking
Political Geography:
Global Focus

36. Climate Policies after Paris: Pledge, Trade, and Recycle

Author:
Christopher Bohringer, Sonja Peterson, Thomas F. Rutherford, and Jan Schneider
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This article summarizes insights of the 36th Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF36) on the magnitude and distribution of economic adjustment costs to greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Under the Paris Agreement countries voluntarily committed themselves to emission reductions – so-called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – in order to combat global warming. The study suggests that tightening of NDCs in line with the commonly agreed 2°C temperature target will induce global economic costs of roughly 1% in 2030 – yet, these costs are unevenly spread across regions with fossil fuel exporting countries being most adversely affected from the transition towards a low-carbon economy. In order to reduce adjustment costs at the global and regional level, comprehensive emissions trading which exploits leastcost abatement options is strongly desirable as it can relax contentious normative debates on equitable burden sharing. Lump-sum recycling of revenues from emissions pricing in equal amounts to every household appeals as an attractive strategy to mitigate regressive effects and thereby make stringent climate policy more acceptable on societal fairness grounds.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Recycling, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37. Fossil Fuel Subsidy Inventories vs. Net Carbon Prices: a Consistent Approach for Measuring Fossil Fuel Price Incentives

Author:
Jens Bohm and Sonja Peterson
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Different reports including the broadly cited OECD fossil fuel subsidy inventory arrive at high monetary values of fossil fuel subsidies and suggest that phasing out these subsidies has a high potential to increase the efficiency of climate policies. We show that the inventory approach gives misleading information about this potential since there is little correlation with net carbon prices that actually reflect the stringency of climate policies. We use data on net fossil fuel taxation from the OECD´s Taxing Energy Use report and augment it with data on subsidies and emission permits, to calculate national and sectoral net carbon prices for the top six emitters (China, US, India, Russia, Japan and Germany) and for Poland and Sweden, two European countries perceived as examples of opposing environmental policies. Our results show that in high-income countries, subsidies mainly relate to reduced fuel tax rates for certain uses, so that e.g. Sweden, for which the OECD inventory reports subsidies per ton of CO2 26 times higher than the US, has a 770% higher national net carbon price than the US. While Germany and Russia have similar subsidy levels in the OECD inventory, the national net carbon price in Germany is 50 €/tCO2, while producer subsidies lead to a negative net carbon price of -6€/tCO2 in Russia. Our results illustrate that raising taxes on fossil fuels will often lead to higher reported inventory subsidies. Inventory measures thus give little information about the efficiency of climate policy. Our analysis also shows the large differences in net carbon prices across countries and across sectors within countries. Net carbon prices should replace fossil fuel subsidies in the policy debates and become the basis for national energy tax reforms and international agreements on minimum carbon prices.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Natural Resources, and Fossil Fuels
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. Climate-related Security Risks in the 2020 Updated Nationally Determined Contributions

Author:
Elise Remling and Amar Causevic
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are the central instrument for states to communicate their con­tribution to the 2016 Paris Agreement on climate change and reflect their wider approach to climate mitigation and adaptation. This SIPRI Insights paper analyses how the 2020 updated NDCs (16 submissions as of October 2020) discuss climate-related security risks and compares them with 2015. It finds that climate change is mainly seen as a risk to socio-economic development and human security and almost never as a risk to societal stability or the functioning of the state. The assessment of risks in NDCs largely focuses on direct climate impacts. This suggests that countries are currently not considering the risks from indirect climate impacts, including those that cross national borders, or the unintended adverse con­sequences of adaptation or mitigation responses. Going forward, countries will need to take account of the multi­faceted and transboundary character of climate risks in their NDCs in order to meet global expectations and goals.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Risk, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39. Green Hydrogen in a Circular Carbon Economy: Opportunities and Limits

Author:
Zhiyuan Fan, Emeka Richard Ochu, Sarah Braverman, Yushan Lou, Griffin Smith, Amar Bhardwaj, Jack Brouwder, Colin McCormick, and Julio Friedmann
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
Abstract:
As global warming mitigation and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduction become increasingly urgent to counter climate change, many nations have announced net-zero emission targets as a commitment to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Low-carbon hydrogen has received renewed attention under these decarbonization frameworks as a potential low-carbon fuel and feedstock, especially for hard-to-abate sectors such as heavy-duty transportation (trucks, shipping) and heavy industries (e.g., steel, chemicals). Green hydrogen in particular, defined as hydrogen produced from water electrolysis with zero-carbon electricity, could have significant potential in helping countries transition their economies to meet climate goals. Today, green hydrogen production faces enormous challenges, including its cost and economics, infrastructure limitations, and potential increases in CO2 emissions (e.g., if produced with uncontrolled fossil power generation, which would be hydrogen but would not be green). This report, part of the Carbon Management Research Initiative at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, examines green hydrogen production and applications to understand the core challenges to its expansion at scale and the near-term opportunity to enable deployment. An analysis using Monte Carlo simulations with a varying range of assumptions, including both temporal (i.e., today versus the future) and geographical (e.g., the US, the EU, China, India, Japan) factors, anticipates emissions intensity and costs of producing green hydrogen. The authors evaluate these production costs for different scenarios as well as associated infrastructure requirements and highlight near-term market opportunities and policies to motivate development of the green hydrogen industry.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Green Technology, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40. Adapting humanitarian action to the effects of climate change

Author:
ALNAP, Véronique de Geoffroy, Paul Knox Clarke, Mihir Bhatt, François Grunewald, and Jennifer Doherty
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
ALNAP: Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance
Abstract:
Humanitarian agencies need to reflect on the past, learn from the present and actively imagine the near and increasingly threatening future. From excessive consumption to the over-exploitation of natural resources, polluting activities to large-scale deforestation, humans have already dramatically changed the Earth’s climate and environment. As a result, we are experiencing more frequent and more intense weather events, the humanitarian consequences of which are major. Droughts, flooding and tropical storms cause death, disease, destruction and large-scale population displacement. Public health emergencies are already increasing because of these changes. Conflicts and conflict situations may increase, as may the resulting human migration and displacement. Humanitarian actors working on the ground with climate-related disasters are well placed to observe the intensification of climate-related effects and the increasing complexity of extreme weather events in all regions of the world, including regions where such events were previously rare or unknown.
Topic:
Climate Change, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, Conflict, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41. Can climate change be tackled without ditching economic growth?

Author:
Guntram Wolff, Simone Tagliapietra, and Klaas Lenaerts
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
Higher levels of economic activity tend to go hand-in-hand with additional energy use and consumption of natural resources. As fossil fuels still account for 80 percent of the global energy mix, energy consumption remains closely related to greenhouse gas emissions and hence to climate forcing. This paper explores whether decarbonisation and economic growth are compatible or whether the world economy needs to grow less to be able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to reach net zero in 2050. The literature provides profoundly different answers to this question, with scholars positioning along a spectrum that extends from the most optimist version of ‘green growth’ theories to sceptical ‘degrowth’ theories. While globally, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP are declining, the decoupling rate from 1995 to 2018 was only -1.8 percent annually. To achieve net zero by 2050, the rate would have to accelerate to -8.7 percent, assuming population and GDP growth projections as given, or by a factor of almost five. To keep GDP growth and population at their projections and thus reject the proposition of de-growth, decoupling would have to accelerate massively. Two avenues are crucial: reducing the energy intensity of production and/or the emissions intensity of energy. The huge fall in the price of renewable energy provides hope that decoupling can accelerate. Decoupling rates have accelerated in the last decade and decoupling is substantially faster in the European Union. In the EU, we estimate that decoupling only has to accelerate by a factor of 2.5. We do not think degrowth propositions advanced in the literature will be pursued and therefore focus on the main challenges that must be tackled to achieve decoupling. Unprecedented efforts are required to achieve green growth. But hoping for humanity to sacrifice growth appears unrealistic.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economic Growth, Fossil Fuels, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Future of Construction

Author:
Oxford Economics
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Future of Construction gives forecasts for global construction to 2030 as well as perspectives on climate related challenges for the construction industry. Global construction output in 2020 was US$10.7 trillion (in 2017 prices and exchange rates) and we expect this to grow by 42% or US$4.5 trillion between 2020 and 2030 to reach US$15.2 trillion. The Global Construction industry is set to be a global engine for economic growth and recovery from COVID. Shorter term, global construction output is expected to reach US$13.3 trillion by 2025 – adding US$2.6 trillion to output in the five years from 2020. Asia Pacific will account for US$2.5 trillion of growth in construction output between 2020 and 2030, up by over 50% to become a US$7.4 trillion market by 2030. Construction output in North America will grow by 32%, or US$580 billion from 2020 to 2030, to US$2.4 trillion in 2030. Western Europe is forecast to grow by 23% between 2020 and 2030 and is expected to push up construction output to US$2.5 trillion in 2030. Average annual growth in construction of 3.6% per annum over the decade to 2030 will be higher than manufacturing or services.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Green Technology, Manufacturing, and Construction
Political Geography:
Global Focus

43. DART-BIO: A technical description

Author:
Ruth Delzeit, Tobias Heimann, Franziska Schunemann, and Mareike Soder
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The goal of this technical paper is to present in a transparent way a detailed description of the DART-BIO model – the bioeconomy and land use version of the DART model. Key feature of the DART-BIO model is the explicit representation of the vegetable oil industry and the biofuel sector. The paper describes the construction and aggregation of the database used for the DART-BIO model. Further the theoretical structure of the model is elaborated. Thereby, crucial assumptions, elasticities and parameters embedded in the model are presented.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Biology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. The Need for Local Governance of Global Commons: The Example of Blue Carbon Ecosystems

Author:
Christine Merk, Jonas Grunau, Marie-Catherine Riekhof, and Wilfried Rickels
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
To limit global warming to 1.5°C, vast amounts of CO2 will have to be removed from the atmosphere via Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Enhancing the CO2 sequestration of ecosystems will require not just one approach but a portfolio of CDR options, including so‐called nature‐based approaches alongside CDR options that are perceived as more technical. Creating a CDR “supply curve” would however imply that all carbon removals are considered to be perfect substitutes. The various co‐benefits of nature‐based CDR approaches militate against this. We discuss this aspect of nature‐based solutions in connection with the enhancement of blue carbon ecosystems (BCE) such as mangrove or seagrass habitats. Enhancing BCEs can indeed contribute to CO2 sequestration, but the value of their carbon storage is low compared to the overall contribution of their ecosystem services to wealth. Furthermore, their property rights are often unclear, i.e. not comprehensively defined or not enforced. Hence, payment schemes that only compensate BCE carbon sequestration could create tradeoffs at the expense of other important, often local, ecosystem services and might not result in socially optimal outcomes. Accordingly, one chance for preserving and restoring BCEs lies in the consideration of all services in potential compensation schemes for local communities. Also, local contexts, management structures, and benefit‐sharing rules are crucial factors to be considered when setting up international payment schemes to support the use of BCEs and other nature‐ or ecosystem‐based CDR. However, regarding these options as the only hope of achieving more CDR will very probably not bring about the desired outcome, either for climate mitigation or for ecosystem preservation. Unhalted degradation, in turn, will make matters worse due to the large amounts of stored carbon that would be released. Hence, countries committed to climate mitigation in line with the Paris targets should not hide behind vague pledges to enhance natural sinks for removing atmospheric CO2 but commit to scaling up engineered CDR.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, International Cooperation, Governance, Global Warming, and Local
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. Accounting for terrestrial and marine carbon sink enhancement

Author:
Marius Paschen, Wilfried Rickels, and Felix Meier
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Any integration of extra carbon dioxide removal (CDR) via terrestrial or marine sink enhancement into climate policies requires accounting for their effectiveness in reducing atmospheric carbon concentration. Different accounting methods have been introduced to quantify the impacts of sink enhancements. Here, we provide a manual for the different accounting methods, accompanying the implementation of the accounting methods in a R-file which is free for download. Hence, the material allows applying the different accounting methods and for demonstration purposes we provide a numerical example.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Maritime, and Carbon Footprint
Political Geography:
Global Focus

46. Can Panel Data Methodologies Determine the Impact of Climate Change on Economic Growth?

Author:
Richard A. Rosen
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Several major papers have been published over the last ten years claiming to have detected the impact of either annual variations in weather or climate change on the GDPs of most countries in the world using panel data-based statistical methodologies. These papers rely on various multivariate regression equations which include the annual average temperatures for most countries in the world as one or more of the independent variables, where the usual dependent variable is the change in annual GDP for each country from one year to the next year over 30-50 year time periods. Unfortunately, the quantitative estimates derived in these papers are misleading because the equations from which they are calculated are wrong. The major reason the resulting regression equations are wrong is because they do not include any of the appropriate and usual economic factors or variables which are likely to be able to explain changes in GDP/economic growth whether or not climate change has already impacted each country’s economy. These equations, in short, exhibit suffer from “omitted variable bias,” to use statistical terminology.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Economic Growth, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. Strengthening Regional Policy Frameworks to Better Respond to Environmental Migration: Recommendations for the UK Government

Author:
Amelia Dal Pra, Mariam Traore Chazalnoel, and Helen Dempster
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The Bay of Bengal, the Sahel, and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are especially vulnerable to the impacts of slow-onset climate events resulting from climate change. Global temperature warming is leading to a dramatic rise in sea levels, which will lead to coastal erosion and land loss across SIDS and the Bay of Bengal. Such warming will also contribute to increasing desertification and water scarcity issues in the Sahel. This environmental damage is irreversible and may seriously threaten economies as well as the daily lives of communities. Without strong policy interventions to bolster in-situ resiliency and increase climate change adaptation and mitigation, including migration, the regions most vulnerable to climate impacts might experience major human security and security crises. This paper provides an analysis of some of relevant regional frameworks that could be useful in addressing environmental migration across these three regions. It concludes that high-income countries such as the UK should do two things: provide financial and technical support to bolster climate adaptation in regions uniquely vulnerable to slow-onset climate events; and support the establishment and / or implementation of regional migration frameworks and free movement agreements (FMAs) that can potentially offer safe, orderly, and regular migration pathways to those affected by the impacts of slow-onset climate events.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

48. Who’s Responsible for Climate Change? New Evidence Based on Country-Level Estimates of Climate Debt

Author:
Benedict Clements, Sanjeev Gupta, and Jianhong Liu
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
In this paper, we introduce the concept of climate debt and provide country-level estimates through 2035 under a business-as-usual scenario. These estimates can help inform the debate on climate change by providing a clear view of which countries have (until the present) contributed the most to climate change, as well as the likely path for climate debt by country over the next 15 years. We then discuss the implications for carbon emissions if the G-20 countries and EU were to adopt either of the two policy options proposed in recent months: the first by President Biden for the US and the other by the EU for its member countries. The implications for fiscal policy are that beyond the need to keep public debt at sustainable levels, countries will also need to allocate funds for expected increases in pension and health spending associated with aging populations. As a result, there may be little room for new expenditures (such as green infrastructure or subsidies for clean energy) to reduce the growth of climate debt. Countries could turn to the revenue side, in particular greater taxation of energy with carbon taxes. This would have the advantage of reducing emissions while also helping countries to fund spending on green infrastructure.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Humanitarian Response, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

49. Navigating the Straits: Pull Financing for Climate and Development Outcomes

Author:
Ranil Dissanayake
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
An increasing share of official development assistance is being used for climate-related activities. This trend is continuing despite the lack of comprehensive cost-effectiveness evidence to guide spending decisions and continuing concerns that few applications are effective or efficient mechanisms for either climate or development outcomes. This represents both a waste of scarce resources and a missed opportunity. This paper proposes that a well-designed pull financing mechanism, which identifies specific problems for which it will pay a pre-specified price for solutions that can scale up, has the potential to navigate these problems. When they work, a pull instrument can solve problems at scale at low cost by incentivizing private innovators to produce a socially beneficial product that people want to buy and use. However, the design challenges associated with them are not trivial: firstly, the identification and selection of technologies or problems for which the pull financing facility would be a sufficiently large portion of the market to shift incentives for innovators or producers (for technologies that exist but have not been taken up widely yet); and secondly, the ability to design contracts that incentivize socially beneficial innovation that are bought and used. This paper sets out the case for pull financing for climate and development activities, the challenges that need to be addressed to do it well, criteria for judging potential applications of pull financing and an initial indication of some sectors to which pull financing may be applied.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Environment, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

50. Valuing Climate Liabilities: Calculating the Cost of Countries’ Historical Damage from Carbon Emissions to Inform Future Climate Finance Commitments

Author:
Lee Robinson and Ian Mitchell
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
A central commitment of action on climate is the promise of “developed countries” to jointly mobilize $100 billion of climate finance per year by 2020 (and through to 2025), formalised at the UN climate change conference in 2010 (COP16). Five years later, the Paris Agreement reaffirmed this commitment and promised a new goal after 2025 “from a floor of USD 100 billion per year.” We propose an approach for calculating financial climate liabilities for each country based on their historical CO2 emissions, using the idea of an externality: a social cost that has not been borne by the agent whose actions produced it. The paper follows earlier work on calculating carbon debts (e.g., Kunnas, 2014) which we update with recent and authoritative research on carbon pricing methods. We also adjust for awareness, calculating the accruing of liabilities only from the time that countries knew that their emissions were harmful. We present several scenarios adjusting this and other assumptions. The main scenario produces a clearly quantified liability for each country and a total carbon liability to the world of $34 trillion, or $4,500 per capita. If this liability was used to set climate finance goals, it would suggest OECD countries would need to contribute $190 billion a year to 2100. The analysis also highlights that other industrialised countries, notably China and Russia, have also built-up substantial liabilities and should therefore also contribute to future climate finance goals.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Carbon Emissions, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus