Search

Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Political Geography Europe Content Type Working Paper

151. Energy in the Mediterranean and the Gulf. Opportunities for Synergies

Author:
Naji Abi-Aad
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Mediterranean is expected to play an increasingly important role in global energy flows which might result in a greater European dependence on North African supplies and less on the Gulf. At the same time, potential synergies are said to exist in such fields as the development of renewable energy sources, and investment required to meet domestic electricity demand. As far as oil and refined products are concerned, the volume and direction of oil flows to and through the Mediterranean will be important, especially as an expected rise in transport in the near future contains serious security implications. As a result, an increased focus on the development of a pipeline network between the Mediterranean and Europe might open possibilities for Gulf involvement. The same could apply for the supply of natural gas to Europe. In the field of power generation, the improved ability to transmit electricity over longer distances opens the door for establishing a continuum of interconnection from the Gulf to Europe through the Mediterranean and the ability to serve markets along those connections. Finally, the rapidly rising awareness of the need for renewable energy sources suggests an additional field of cooperation.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa

152. Optimisation of Central Asian and Eurasian Trans-Continental Land Transport Corridors

Author:
Michael Emerson and Evgeny Vinokurov
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
There is at present an overlapping but inadequately coordinated combination of strategic trans-continental transport corridors or axes stretching across the Eurasian landmass, centred on or around Central Asia. There are three such initiatives - from the EU, China and the Asian Development Bank, and the Eurasian Economic Community. This paper reviews these several strategic transport maps, and makes proposals for their coordination and rationalisation. So far the EU Central Asia strategy has not paid much attention to these questions. However the EU's own initiatives (the Pan-European Axes and the TRACECA programme) are in need of updating and revision to take into account major investments being made by other parties. In particular the case is made for a 'Central Eurasian Corridor' for rail and road that would reach from Central Europe across Ukraine and Southern Russia into West Kazakhstan, and thence to the East Kazakh border with China, thus joining up with and completing the West China-West Europe corridor promoted by the Asian Development Bank. There should also be a North-South corridor that would cross over this Central Eurasian Corridor in West Kazakhstan and lead south to the Middle East and South Asia. These adaptations of existing plans could become an exemplary case of cooperation between Central Asia and all the major economic powers of the Eurasian landmass.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan

153. German Companies Engaging in China: Decision-Making Processes at Home and Management Practices in Chinese Subsidiaries

Author:
Geny Piotti
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper attempts to explain why internationalization processes to China are growing despite the significant difficulties that foreign direct investments into China encounter. The answer to this question can be found in the processes of decision-making on internationalization at the company level and how these affect management practices in Chinese subsidiaries. The argument I put forward in this paper is that for the small and medium-sized enterprises the study focuses on, the decisions concerning investment in China are mainly the product of structural and legitimation pressure. Structural pressure can encourage cognitive mechanisms and behavioral consequences similar to those occurring when individuals (and organizations) cope with threat. Legitimation pressure can foster wishful thinking, which pushes actors to believe that desired options are good despite evidence to the contrary. These pressures have an impact on how well companies are prepared when they internationalize and can particularly affect some crucial management practices, leading to inefficiencies and problems in subsidiaries.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China, Europe, Asia, and Germany

154. The Estimated Trade Effects of the Euro: Why Are They Below Those From Historical Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?

Author:
Jeffrey Frankel
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Andy Rose (2000), followed by many others, has used the gravity model of bilateral trade on a large data set to estimate the trade effects of monetary unions among small countries. The finding has been large estimates: Trade among members seems to double or triple, that is, to increase by 100-200%. After the advent of EMU in 1999, Micco, Ordoñez and Stein and others used the gravity model on a much smaller data set to estimate the effects of the euro on trade among its members. The estimates tend to be statistically significant, but far smaller in magnitude: on the order of 10-20% during the first four years. What explains the discrepancy? This paper seeks to address two questions. First, do the effects on intra-euroland trade that were estimated in the euro's first four years hold up in the second four years? The answer is yes. Second, and more complicated, what is the reason for the big discrepancy vis-à-vis other currency unions? We investigate three prominent possible explanations for the gap between 15% and 200%. First, lags. The euro is still very young. Second, size. The European countries are much bigger on average than most of those who had formed currency unions in the past. Third, endogeneity of the decision to adopt an institutional currency link. Perhaps the high correlations estimated in earlier studies were spurious, an artifact of reverse causality. We test the hypotheses regarding lags and size directly; and we address the endogeneity problem by means of a natural experiment involving trade between the CFA countries of Africa and the euro countries of Europe. Contrary to expectations, we find little evidence that any of these factors explains a substantial share of the gap, let alone all of it.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Europe

155. Ottoman De-Industrialization 1800-1913: Assessing the Shock, Its Impact and the Response

Author:
Jeffrey G. Williamson and Şevket Pamuk
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
India and Britain were much bigger players in the 18th century world market for textiles than was Egypt, the Levant and the core of the Ottoman Empire, but these eastern Mediterranean regions did export carpets, silks and other textiles to Europe and the East. By the middle of the 19th century, they had lost most of their export market and much of their domestic market to globalization forces and rapid productivity growth in European manufacturing. Other local industries also suffered decline, and these regions underwent de-industrialization as a consequence. How different was Ottoman experience from the rest of the poor periphery? Was de-industrialization more or less pronounced? Was the terms of trade shock bigger or smaller? How much of Ottoman de-industrialization was due to falling world trade barriers—ocean transport revolutions and European liberal trade policy, how much due to factory-based productivity advance in Europe, how much to declining Ottoman competitiveness in manufacturing, how much to Ottoman railroads penetrating the interior, and how much to Ottoman policy? The paper uses a price-dual approach to seek the answers. It documents trends in export and import prices, relative to each other and to non-tradables, as well as to the unskilled wage. The impact of globalization, European productivity advance, Ottoman wage costs and policy are assessed by using a simple neo-Ricardian three sector model, and by comparison with what was taking place in the rest of the poor periphery.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, Turkey, India, and Egypt

156. Russian outward FDI and its policy context

Author:
Andrei Panibratov and Kalman Kalotay
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) from Russia often surprises outside observers by its landmark deals. One of them was the purchase in September 2009 of a 55% stake in General Motors' German affiliate Opel by a consortium of the Canadian car maker Magna and the Russian state-owned bank Sberbank. The latter is the largest creditor of the Russian car maker GAZ, and may represent its commercial interests in the contract. With this deal, Russia has bought into the industrial heartland of the world economy and could potentially access more advanced technology. This acquisition hints at the growth of Russian OFDI in general, which has prospered despite fears in many host countries that the investors are subject to Russian political interference, a fear that recently announced Russian policy intentions may allay.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

157. Eurozone Unity Under Threat?

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Ten years after the introduction of the euro, the onset of deep recession in the Eurozone has triggered concern that the single currency might impose intolerable strains upon some members. With some countries hit hard by the impact of the credit crunch, there are mounting concerns about a possible debt default by one or more member states, which in turn might threaten the euro and even the existence of the Eurozone. With the Eurozone economy forecast to contract by 3.1% this year, unemployment is starting to climb steeply and fiscal deficits are soaring. This has raised concerns about deteriorating public finances in a number of countries, leading to sharply wider spreads on government bonds and credit rating downgrades for Greece, Spain and Portugal, with Ireland maybe facing a similar fate soon. And repercussions from the growing economic crisis in Central and Eastern Europe are adding to the problem, with Austria particularly exposed. Rising bond spreads were always intended to be the mechanism that would restrain public spending by more profligate Eurozone countries. But the question now is whether the weaker economies can withstand the strains that a lengthy period of recession will impose and, at the same time, adopt credible medium-term spending plans to ward off the worst of the downturn and retain market confidence. With fiscal deficits already rising as a result of bank bailouts, fiscal packages and recession will push budget deficits far above the 3% of GDP target – Ireland, facing a deficit of 12% of GDP, and Spain will be worst hit. And with rising deficits and higher bond spreads pushing up the cost of debt, countries face a sharp rise in their level of indebtedness, with Greece and Italy seeing debt/GDP ratios around 100%. This deterioration could lead to a further downward spiral if the recession is prolonged and will be a test of countries' euro commitment, which has remained strong thus far despite rising social tensions in some countries. At this stage, the problems remain manageable and the risk of default or of countries leaving the euro is still very low. Bond spreads are still much lower than during much of the 1990s, when countries were striving to qualify for euro membership, and the currency risks attached to leaving the euro would be substantial. Moreover, EU countries that have been exposed to considerable currency strain over the past year are anxious to join the Eurozone as soon as possible, to take advantage of the benefits of a stable currency. While some smaller countries may experience financial difficulties, it seems inevitable that the larger Eurozone members would step in to stabilise the situation – failure to do so would risk contagion spreading to other countries, which in turn would cause even deeper problems for the euro. More policy action also seems likely to counter this threat – although the German government will probably remain reluctant to countenance the scale of expansionary fiscal policy really needed at this time. Current policies inevitably mean a long hard slog back towards fiscal rectitude in the years ahead, with monetary policy also tightening and growth slower than previously expected. Fiscal federalism may also have to be on the agenda. All this will undoubtedly lead to ongoing strains within the Eurozone. And any measures by governments that appear to be protectionist – such as the support for the French car industry – will only fuel these tensions.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

158. The economic contribution of ports to the UK economy

Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Ports are vital for the health of the UK economy and the movement of its population. They are gateways into the UK for trade and travel. Over 95% of UK imports and exports by volume and 75% by value pass through the country's ports. In terms of tonnage handled, the UK ports sector is the largest in Europe. In 2007, UK ports handled 580 million tonnes of freight. In 2007, 24.8 million international sea passengers went through UK ports. Nearly three quarters of journeys were to France. Another 14 per cent were to the Republic of Ireland. In 2007, 24.2 million domestic sea passengers traveled between ports in the UK. Sea crossings comprised 4.0 million of these journeys. Inter island journeys the remaining 20.2 million. Of which 10.7 million trips were between Hampshire and Isle of Wight and 8.0 million between the Scottish islands.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

159. An Indispensable Relationship: Economic Linkages between the UK and the rest of the European Union

Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Business for New Europe has requested Oxford Economics to undertake a study detailing the economic ties between the UK and the rest of the European Union (EU), and where possible, quantify them according to a number of parameters such as trade, labour force, tourism, FDI, portfolio investments and banking linkages. In the context of the current economic situation, there is a growing need for increased economic integration and cooperation between partner countries. Therefore, it is particularly relevant to review the importance of the economic links between the UK and the rest of the EU. These inter-relations have come to the fore since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Analysing the impact of the credit crunch on UK-EU relations is not within the scope of this report.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

160. Belgian Country Report

Author:
Bryan Groves
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Department of Social Sciences at West Point, United States Military Academy
Abstract:
A number of important geopolitical events in the last three decades, Belgium's membership in the EU and its adoption of the Euro, along with its domestic responses have impacted recent developments in its economy. The nation has been marked by an increasing Real GDP, a balanced budget, a CA surplus, improved terms of trade, decreased openness, high unemployment, an ageing population, a pending social security crisis, and a contractionary fiscal and monetary policy meant to keep inflation low and increase national savings to avoid a social security disaster.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

161. The Blueprint: A History of Dubai's Spatial Development Through Oil Discovery

Author:
Stephen J. Ramos
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
To understand Dubai's modern history since its founding in 1833, one must go further back in time to explore the regional history that frames its foundation. European powers, beginning with the Venetians, and, then subsequently, the Portuguese, the Dutch, and finally the British, were interested in the Gulf region as a means to secure trade routes to and from the Indian Subcontinent and points eastward. This meant that from the fifteenth century through the late nineteenth century, if trade routes could move uninterrupted through the Gulf region, European powers were not involved in the societal affairs of settlements as a traditionally colonial ruling class, nor did European merchants bother to extensively explore trade within the region, believing that it required more effort than either the climate or the local economies were worth. The region's local tribes were divided among the maritime coastal groups and those that were nomadic and land-bound, and conflict among these groups occurred in parallel with the larger European conflicts also playing out in the region. The intersection of the two came with the increase in piracy, which, in very basic terms, represented a kind of cultural disagreement on trade customs. The Europeans felt that they were unjustly looted and local groups simply sought to protect themselves from foreign incursion while taking what they believed was their share. Historians still debate this issue today, but in relation to Dubai, the piracy of the times serves as an example of how looser understandings of the licit and illicit, particularly in terms of trade, could be capitalized upon as business venture. The smuggling of gold, weapons, and other goods throughout Dubai's history may have been seen as illicit from perspectives outside Dubai's ports, but the merchant-friendly environments of these ports and the adherence to local autonomy allowed them to trade freely.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
Europe, India, Arabia, and Dubai

162. The Transatlantic Economy 2009

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
After a five-year boom in prosperity, the transatlantic economy has fallen into what could be perhaps its deepest recession since World War II. Although the U.S. was the epicenter of the financial crisis, many European banks have exposure to U.S. subprime loans and embraced the risky lending practices of their American counterparts. The financial crisis and attendant recession underscore the deep integration of the transatlantic economy. Notions of “decoupling” are mistaken and are likely to lead to serious policy errors. Never before have Europeans and Americans had a greater stake in each other's economic success. Each has a substantial interest in the other's ability to weather current difficulties and to emerge in sound shape from the crisis.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

163. The Outlook for Tokyo: New Opportunities or Long-term Decline for Japan's Financial Sector?

Author:
Vanessa Rossi
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Japan's economy has suffered exceptional damage because of its high level of exposure to the massive downturn in world trade and investment, notably impacting on demand for cars, consumer electronics and investment equipment. The depth of Japan's recession looks set to be far worse than that of the US and the EU. However, the recession has also radically reshaped the global financial environment in ways that suggest unexpected opportunities for Japanese financial institutions and markets. This report reviews the outlook for Tokyo as a financial centre and the role of Japan's financial sector in the light of domestic targets as well as international trends and competition.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, Europe, Israel, Asia, and Tokyo

164. New Ideas for the London Summit: Recommendations to the G20 Leaders

Author:
Paola Subacchi, Robin Niblett, and Alexei Monsarrat
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
What started last year as a growing international credit crunch and, by September, a global banking crisis has now spread into the real economy. International trade, investment and economic growth are all contracting. A drastic curtailment of credit, collapsing global demand and a loss of trade finance is having a devastating economic effect on both the developed and developing worlds, especially those economies that are heavily dependent on exports.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe and London

165. European Food Safety Regulation and the Developing Countries: Regulatory problems and possibilities

Author:
Morten Broberg
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
This paper examines the European Community's food safety regime in order to identify those legal measures that cause the most problems for developing countries' exporters of food products and to point to possible solutions. It is shown that barriers ma y arise due to an array of requirements, some of which may appear to be rather minor legal amendments, such as changing a sampling plan. There is no easy solution to this problem, but three specific measures are proposed: Firstly, improved harmonisation of food safety measures in the industrialised countries. Secondly, when proposing new food safety measures the European Commission should identify the proposal's likely consequences on developing countries – and should explain how alternative measures will affect both food safety and the developing countries. And lastly, the European Community should strengthen its provision of development assistance to enable the developing countries to comply with the food safety standards.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, International Trade and Finance, Third World, and Food
Political Geography:
Europe

166. How the market for standards shapes competition in the market for goods: Sustainability standards in the cut flower industry

Author:
Lone Riisgaard
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Sustainability initiatives have proliferated in many industries in recent years. This has led to a plethora of standards that exist in parallel to each other seeking to address more or less the same social and environmental issues. Sustainability standards are not neutral tools but institutional mechanisms that differ in the way they seek to implement their objectives and in the impact they have on intended beneficiaries and other value chain actors. In this paper I explore the emergence of multiple standards seeking to regulate the social conditions in the production of cut flowers aimed at the EU market. I investigate developments in the focus and function of these standards and the effect of standards and standard harmonization attempts on the terms of competition in the cut flower value chain. The analysis shows that the harmonization of flower standards has a potential to 'lift the standard bar' by transforming risk management standards into product differ-entiation standards. The paper also shows how the market for standards can shape competition in the market for flowers by altering the terms of participation in the growing market segment for 'sustainable' flowers. Through the new standard harmonization initiative Fair Flowers Fair Plants, Dutch growers are now able to compete in the market for socially labelled flowers which before was restricted to Southern producers.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

167. Recovery: The Global Financial Crisis and Middle-Income Countries

Author:
Alejandro Foxley
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
No country has proved immune to the devastating effects of the current global financial crisis. But the middle-income countries of Eastern Europe, Latin America, and East Asia, which previously had achieved significant progress—economically and socially—have shown themselves to be particularly vulnerable. The crisis has highlighted important lessons for these countries, which inhabit a twilight zone between the developed and developing worlds?and those that aspire to join their ranks—as they rebuild.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe, East Asia, and Latin America

168. The value of power, the power of values: a call for an EU Grand Strategy

Author:
Sven Biscop (ed.)
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Centre for Minority Issues
Abstract:
In its 2003 European Security Strategy (ESS), the EU has a grand strategy, embracing all instruments and resources at the disposal of the Union and the Member States, but a partial one. The ESS tells us how to do things – in a preventive, holistic and multilateral way – but it is much vaguer on what to do: what are the concrete objectives and priorities of the EU as a global actor?
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

169. Multilateralism beyond Doha

Author:
Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
A fundamental shift is taking place in the world economy to which the multilateral trading system has failed to adapt. The Doha process focused on issues of limited significance while the burning issues of the day were not even on the negotiating agenda. The paper advances five propositions: (1) the traditional negotiating dynamic, driven by private-sector interests largely in the rich countries, is running out of steam; (2) the world economy is moving broadly from conditions of relative abundance to relative scarcity, and so economic security has become a paramount concern for consumers, workers, and ordinary citizens; (3) international economic integration can contribute to enhanced security; (4) addressing these new concerns-relating to food, energy, and economic security-requires a wider agenda of multilateral cooperation, involving not just the World Trade Organization but other multilateral institutions as well; and (5) despite shifts in economic power across countries, the commonality of interests and scope for give-and-take on these new issues make multilateral cooperation worth attempting.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Europe

170. The Trade and Climate Change, Joint Agenda

Author:
Thomas L Brewer
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
Climate change, international trade, investment and technology transfer are all issues that have intersected in diverse institutional contexts and at several levels of governmental activity to form a new joint agenda. The purpose of this paper is to advance understanding of this joint agenda by identifying the specific issues that have emerged, the policies that have been adopted, especially in the EU and US, and the options that are available for further policy-making.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

171. EU and U.S. Free Trade Agreements in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:
Riad al Khouri
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The political situation in much of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is subject to persistent tension due to the Arab–Israeli conflict, the war in Iraq and its spillovers to other countries, and sporadic upsurges of terrorism. In addition, some countries face serious domestic political tensions, a lack of political openness, and the increasing popularity of Islamist opposition groups. Economically, fast demographic and labor force expansion has led to high un- employment and slow growth in per capita incomes. Unsustainable management of the environment and natural resources further threatens prospects for long-term economic growth. In this context, increased economic cooperation between the MENA countries, on the one hand, and the United States and the European Union (EU), on the other, aims not only at promoting growth and development but also at fostering more stable political environments.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Arabia, and North Africa

172. Der kollektive "Buddenbrooks-Effekt"

Author:
Christoph Deutschmann
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The paper views the current financial crisis in light of long-term structural socioeconomic changes in advanced industrial societies. In Western Europe, the United States and Japan, the period of economic prosperity after the Second World War led to a remarkable accumulation of wealth among the middle class that had surprisingly little effect on the substantial fortunes of the wealthiest upper class. This affluence gave rise to pension and investment funds emerging as a new type of collective actor in global financial markets, while the economy was marked by increasing instability, declining growth rates and financial crises. The paper tries to clarify the interconnections between these phenomena using the framework of a multilevel analysis that culminates in a model I call the “collective Buddenbrooks effect” (“Buddenbrooks” being a family saga by Thomas Mann): Structural upward social mobility will lead to an increasing imbalance in capital markets, since the volume of financial assets looking for profitable investment will rise as the social reservoir of solvent debtors and promising investment opportunities decline. Advanced industrial economies are thus characterized by a bias towards capital export and excessive financial liquidity, with the well-known consequences of low economic growth rates and the danger of speculative bubbles on global capital markets. The middle class that originally benefitted from postwar prosperity is negatively affected, too. I argue that the current crisis cannot be understood sufficiently without taking this structural socioeconomic background into account.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Political Theory
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, and Europe

173. Foreign Trade Specialization and International Competitiveness Of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and the EU 12

Author:
Bahri Yilmaz
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the foreign trade patterns and/or specialization in foreign trade of three EU member countries – namely, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and candidate country Turkey – and to compare the foreign trade patterns with the EU/12 in the period 1995- 2005. The paper is divided into seven main sections. The first section summarizes the export and import developments of the countries in question between the years 1995 and 2005. The second section describes the methodology and data sets. Empirical analysis is found in the third section, where in five subsections we investigate international competitiveness and trade specialization using different indices. In the fourth part of the research we compare the dynamic products in world exports with dynamic products in the exports of the four countries. The final section gives brief conclusions drawn from the results and considers the future position of Turkey within the enlarged EU. In this research we do not intend to explain why the foreign trade patterns are different in the considered countries. We simply try to show whether and where there are any differences in foreign trade specialisation among the four countries and EU/12.
Topic:
International Relations, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Spain, Portugal, and South Sudan

174. Trade Expansion of China and India: Threat or Opportunity

Author:
Guanghua Wan and Mahvash Saeed Qureshi
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
By exploring the export performances and specialization patterns of China and India, we assess their trade competitiveness and complementarity vis-à-vis each other as well as with the rest of the world. Our analysis indicates that (i) India faces tough competition from China in the third markets especially in clothing, textile and leather products; (ii) there is a moderate potential for expanding trade between the two countries; (iii) China poses a challenge for the East Asian economies, the US, and most of the European countries especially in medium-technology industries; (iv) India appears to be a competitor mainly for its neighbouring South Asian countries; and (v) complementarity exists between the imports of China and India, and the exports of the US, some European states and East Asian countries, especially Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, implying opportunities for trade expansion; and finally (vi) the export structure of China is changing with the exports of skill intensive and high-technology products increasing and those of labour-intensive products decreasing gradually. This suggests that challenges created by China in traditional labour-intensive products might reduce in the long run.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Europe, South Asia, Malaysia, India, Asia, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand

175. Canada and the European Union: Prospects for a Free Trade Agreement

Author:
Selen Sarisoy Guerin and Chris Napoli
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
This paper argues that there are significant potential economic gains to be obtained from an EU-Canada Free Trade Agreement. The evolution of trade between the US and Canada following the signing of CUSFTA in 1989 offers a good illustration of how trade might increase after an EU-Canada FTA, as the patterns and levels of protection between the EU and Canada today are very similar to the protection that existed between the US and Canada in 1989. Although many empirical studies fail to find support for 'trade diversion' created by NAFTA (or CUSFTA) at the expense of the EU and to the benefit of the US, there is some evidence of trade diversion when detailed regional trade is examined. If indeed trade diversion has occurred due to NAFTA, then an EU-Canada FTA is welfare-enhancing for Canada. For the EU, a potential FTA can level the playing field with the US and increase the competitiveness of European firms in the Canadian market.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Markets
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Canada

176. Germany and Globalization

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
Publication Date:
11-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
Globalization is changing all of our lives as the pace of economic interdependence grows between developed and emerging countries. Debate thrives about whether globalization has been good or bad for European consumers, workers, companies and governments and what are the prospects in the future. In a dynamic and uncertain world currently beset by a global financial crisis and a looming recession can Europe act to take advantage of the opportunities created by globalization and mitigate its challenges?
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

177. France and Globalization

Author:
Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
Globalization is changing all of our lives as the pace of economic interdependence grows between developed and emerging countries. Debate thrives about whether globalization has been good or bad for European consumers, workers, companies and governments and what are the prospects in the future. In a dynamic and uncertain world can Europe act to take advantage of the opportunities created by globalization and mitigate its challenges?
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
America, Europe, and France

178. European Integration and Domestic Regions: A Numerical Simulation Analysis

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Does European economic integration create more inequality between domestic regions, or is the opposite true? While former research has asked for a general answer to this question, we argue that such a general answer does not exist and that the outcome depends on the liberalisation scenario. In order to examine this, we need models with higher dimensionality where the question is where and not whether there will be spatial agglomeration. For this purpose, the paper develops a numerical simulation model with nine countries and 90 regions in order to examine the impact of European and international integration on the regions. Eastward extension of European integration is beneficial for old as well as new members, but within countries the impact varies along the east-west axis. Reduction in distance-related trade costs is particularly good for the European peripheries. Each liberalisation scenario has a distinct impact on the spatial income distribution, and there is no general rule telling that integration causes more or less agglomeration.
Topic:
International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

179. The Internationalization of Firms in the Service Industries: Channels, Determinants and Sectoral Patterns

Author:
Fulvio Castellacci
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper presents the results of a new survey on the international activities of Norwegian enterprises in various service industries. The survey focuses on three main internationalization channels: international sales, international cooperation and R outsourcing. The empirical analysis studies the relevance of these channels, and investigates the related strategies, objectives and determinants. International sales and collaborations emerge as the two most relevant channels, whereas the scope for R outsourcing seems to be far more limited. The analysis of the determinants of international activities suggests three main results: (1) the innovative capability of firms matters for their international performance; (2) the various internationalization channels seem to be complement, rather than substitute, strategies to compete in foreign markets; (3) sectoral specificities greatly affect firms' internationalization strategies and performance.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe

180. Europe's Dependence on Russian Natural Gas: Perspectives and Recommendations for a Long-term Strategy

Author:
Richard J. Anderson
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The European Union 27 currently rely on Russia for almost 38% of their imported natural gas; this dependency will become significantly greater if European states implement their currently formulated energy policies. With plans to phase out nuclear power in several European countries, the EU goal to reduce coal consumption thereby lowering greenhouse gas emissions, and the depletion of domestic sources of gas, reliance on Russia will rise to 50 to 60% of all gas imports within the next two decades if different energy policies are not adopted. The EU and greater Europe will soon find themselves in an extremely dangerous position due to the everincreasing dependence on Russian natural gas. These countries must work together now to produce a coherent diversification strategy.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

181. EU Commercial Policy in a Multipolar Trading System

Author:
Simon Evenett
Publication Date:
04-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
In recent years, the bipolar multilateral trading system of the post-war years has given way to a multipolar alternative. Although many specifics have yet to be determined, some contours of this new trade policy landscape are coming into focus and in this short paper I examine their implications for the European Union's external commercial policy. Particular attention is given to both the state of business-government relations and the propensity to liberalise under the auspices of reciprocal trade agreements by Brazil, India, and China; the potential new poles of the world trading system. I consider the likely consequences of these developments, plus factors internal to both the European Union and the United States, for the possible con-tent of future multilateral trade initiatives.
Topic:
Development, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, India, and Brazil

182. Contemporary Chinese Views of Europe

Author:
Karine Lisbonne-de Vergeron
Publication Date:
11-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Undoubtedly, the Chinese currently think of Europe, and of the European Union, primarily in economic terms. Since 2004, the EU has been China's first trading partner, accounting for 15% of its overall external trade in 2006, with a bilateral increase of 25% from 2005. Overall, bilateral trade between China and the EU has increased more than sixty-fold since 1978 to reach nearly €255 billion in 2006. In return, China is the EU's second largest trading partner, after the United States, and in 2006 became the largest source of EU imports, amounting to approximately €192 billion, or 14.4% of the total, a 21% increase from 2005. Over the same period, EU exports to China increased by 23% to approximately €63 billion.
Topic:
Civil Society, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

183. Growth and Responsibility: A Review of Business Action for Africa between the UK and German G8 Presidencies 2005-7

Author:
Richard Reeve
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
In March 2005 the report of the Commission for Africa called for a sea change in the way the business community engaged in the development process in Africa. The G8 Gleneagles summit that July made a series of commitments on boosting African development, while in London a new international network was launched to bring G8 and African business leaders together to build on the momentum of the Commission and the UK's dual G8 and EU presidencies. Business Action for Africa (BAA) declared its aims as: to present a clear African and international business voice to promote growth and poverty reduction; to promote more positive, balanced perceptions of Africa; and to develop and showcase good business practice.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Europe, Asia, and Germany

184. A Statistical Analysis of the Quality of Impact Assessment in the European Union

Author:
Caroline Cecot, Robert Hahn, and Andrea Renda
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In 2002, the European Union required that an impact assessment be done for all major initiatives, including many regulations, directives, decisions, and communications. This paper is the first paper to statistically analyze these impact assessments using the largest available dataset. As a benchmark, we compare our results in the EU with recent results on the quality of regulatory analysis in the U.S. We score impact assessments using a number of objective measures of quality, such as whether a particular assessment provides any quantitative information on costs or benefits, and use the scores to develop two indices of quality.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

185. Austria's Deepening Economic Integration with Central and Eastern Europe

Author:
Rina Bhattacharya
Publication Date:
08-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
The Austrian economy has benefited substantially from the expansion of economic ties with Central and Eastern Europe, which has provided a significant boost to growth, productivity, competitiveness, profits and (more controversially) aggregate employment. Indeed, among the older EU member states, Austria has benefited the most from the transition of the Central and Eastern European countries from planned economies to market economies, and the subsequent entry into the EU of the ten new member states, mostly from Central and Eastern Europe, in 2004. However, important segments of the population in Austria, and in particular low-skilled and semi-skilled workers in the manufacturing sector, appear to have been adversely affected by these developments. There is thus a need for policy measures to help those segments of the workforce that have had difficulty coping with growing competition from Central and Eastern Europe. Furthermore, more can be done to make Austria a more attractive location for highly skilled and well qualified expatriate workers and to maintain Vienna’s position as a central hub for multinationals operating in the region. These include, in particular, the need to strengthen eastern transportation links and to reduce to a minimum bureaucratic hurdles and red tape for foreign enterprises seeking to operate out of Vienna.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, Economic Cooperation, and Financial Stability
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, Austria, and Central Europe

186. Multi-Level Judicial Trade Governance without Justice? On the Role of Domestic Courts in the WTO Legal and Dispute Settlement System

Author:
Ernst-Ulrich Petersmann
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Research Papers Archive
Abstract:
The fragmented nature of national and international legal and dispute settlement regimes, and the formalistic nature of the customary international law rules on treaty interpretation and conflicts of laws, offer little guidance on how national and international judges should respond to the proliferation of competing jurisdictions and the resultant incentives for forum shopping and rule shopping by governments and non-governmental actors in international economic law. Due to their different jurisdictions, procedures and different rules of applicable laws, national and international judges often interpret international trade law from different (inter)national, (inter)governmental, constitutional and judicial perspectives. This paper explores the judicial functions of national and international judges to reach justified decisions based on positive law, on the basis of transparent, predictable and fair procedures, and to interpret international treaties “in conformity with principles of justice.” Chapters I to III explain some of the “principles of justice” underlying international trade law and argue that international rules for a mutually beneficial division of labour among private citizens should be construed with due regard to the human rights obligations of governments. Chapters III and IV propose to strengthen international cooperation among national and international courts, for instance by negotiating additional WTO commitments to interpret domestic trade laws in conformity with the WTO obligations of the countries concerned and to settle WTO disputes over private rights primarily in domestic courts, without transforming essentially private disputes into disputes among governments.
Topic:
Development, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Europe

187. Ten years of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership - accomplishments and prospects

Author:
Agata Kołakowska
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Ever since the European Economic Community came into being in the late 1950s, the member countries have always shared a belief that development of economic cooperation, especially through trade, is crucial to fostering good relations with Arab world nations. It was, however, essential to define the kind of cooperation that was to be pursued with countries which were then French colonies and enjoyed trade privileges. The first association agreements were concluded with the three Maghreb states in 1969. As time went by the EEC hammered out a more integrated approach to the non-member countries of the Mediterranean Basin with cooperation focussed on economic and development-related matters—a policy that chimed with the expectations of all the partners. The idea of framing a long-range plan to establish a free-trade area was grounded in a belief in the necessity of enhancing mutual relations in fields that were likely to yield the biggest benefits.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

188. European Chemical Policy and the United States: The Impacts of REACH

Author:
Rachel Massey, Frank Ackerman, and Liz Stanton
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
The European Union is moving toward adoption of its new Registration, Evaluation and Authorization of Chemicals (REACH) policy, an innovative system of chemicals regulation that will provide crucial information on the safety profile of chemicals used in industry. Chemicals produced elsewhere, such as in the United States, and exported to Europe will have to meet the same standards as chemicals produced within the European Union. What is at stake for the U.S. is substantial: we estimate that chemical exports to Europe that are subject to REACH amount to about $14 billion per year, and are directly and indirectly responsible for 54,000 jobs. Revenues and employment of this magnitude dwarf the costs of compliance with REACH, which will amount to no more than $14 million per year. Even if, as the U.S. chemicals industry has argued, REACH is a needless mistake, it will be far more profitable to pay the modest compliance costs than to lose access to the enormous European market.
Topic:
Government, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

189. OECD Territorial Reviews: Milan, Italy

Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Milan ranks among wealthy OECD metropolitan regions and is often identified with the “Made in Italy” brand on the international arena, notably for fashion and design. Once a successful industrial city, Milan has grown into the core of a wider industrial metropolitan region that is home to more than 7 million people. Industrial activities still drive the region's periphery while the centre of Milan is veering towards becoming a service platform for a significant share of northern Italy. Milan's historical skills endowment and its advantageous geographic location could underpin its ambition to become a southern European and Mediterranean capital, supplying advanced services and new technologies while remaining an international capital of fashion and design.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

190. Analysis of Arms Export and Transfer National Legislation in the Western Balkans

Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:
The European Union (EU) has long been a provider of diplomatic and technical support for the enhancement of international controls governing arms transfers. In June 1998, the EU Code of Conduct on Arms Exports (EU Code) was developed and agreed among member states. The EU Code includes a list of eight criteria designed to guide decisions on whether to grant or refuse export licence applications, as well as a number of operative provisions designed to aid its implementation, including, for example, a system for circulating reports among member states concerning both licences granted and applications denied. Subsequently, the EU has developed a number of other instruments and strategies.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Balkans

191. Intellectual Property Rights as a Key Obstacle to Russia's WTO Accession

Author:
Matthew Ocheltree and Sherman Katz
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia has been in the process of seeking membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) since June 1993. Currently, the United States is the only major economic power that has yet to finalize a bilateral market access agreement with the Russian Federation. Most observers of the situation concur that the enforcement of intellectual property rights laws remains, along with agriculture, one of the two major hurdles to Russian accession to the World Trade Organization.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Europe, and Asia

192. Ukraine and the European Neighbourhood Policy: Ensuring the Free Movement of Goods and Services

Author:
Olga Shumylo
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The negotiation of a regional trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine is the next significant step towards Ukraine's deeper integration with the West. Drawing on analyses of official and independent analytical materials and statistical data, this paper explores the form such an arrangement should take – namely, which of the existing models would be an appropriate model for EU-Ukraine trade relations: a Free Trade Agreement, a Customs Union or something along the lines of the European Economic Area Agreement.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

193. Moldova's Convergence with the Acquis - A Pro-Growth and Pro-Integration Strategy

Author:
Oxana Gutu
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:
The enlargement of the EU and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) have revived the debate in the 'neighbourhood countries' around the need to converge legislation with EU internal rules and regulations, known as the acquis communautaire. The political incentive of accession to the EU, which has driven legal approximation in new EU member states, is missing for ENP countries. Yet, in the case of countries like Moldova, the cost of non-compliance is significant and translates into loss of existing export markets (e.g. in Romania) and the inability to expand into new markets (SEE countries and the EU). The situation is made still worse by a poor level of economic governance. As convergence with the acquis is a huge task, the key challenge for ENP countries is to determine the priorities, sequence and degree of legal approximation. This paper argues that the optimum degree and appropriate pace of convergence need to be driven by economic rationale and the development of the trade potential of the country. Thus, to secure benefits and avoid high costs for the economy, the legal approximation agenda will be moving along clearly identified economic integration scenarios, i.e. achieving a functioning market economy; taking full advantage of EU trade preferences (GSP and APTs), preparing for an FTA with the EU and, over a considerable number of years, gradually achieving a stake in the EU's Internal Market.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Romania

194. Has EMU Had Any Impact on the Degree of Wage Restraint?

Author:
Adam S. Posen and Daniel Popov Gould
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This working paper investigates the European Monetary Unification's (EMU) effect on wage restraint—the degree to which wage increases do or do not exceed productivity growth. We find in cross-sectional investigations that wage restraint either is unchanged or has increased following EMU in the vast majority of countries. This finding contradicts the predictions of a widely cited family of models of coordination of labor market bargaining. In particular, one would have expected Germany to display the greatest decline in wage restraint post-EMU under these models, but in our time-series analysis we find no indication of such a decline. The overall shift toward greater wage restraint is consistent with the models that emphasize the gains from monetary credibility. The time-series evidence on Italy, which shows a significant increase in wage restraint after eurozone entry, also supports this view. That said, the increase in wage restraint in the eurozone is matched by that associated with the increase in credibility seen in the United Kingdom and Sweden after their adoption of inflation targeting post-1992.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom, Europe, Germany, and Sweden

195. Making and Breaking the Rules: French policy on EU "gouvernement économique" and the Stability and Growth Pact

Author:
David J. Howarth
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Research Papers Archive
Abstract:
The failure of the Raffarin Government to respect the Stability and Growth Pact (Stability Pact, SP), its call for the Pact's reconceptualisation, reform of the management of the Euro-zone's monetary policy and EU-level reflation should be seen not as a significant change in French policy on 'gouvernement économique' (that is, EU-level economic governance (GE) but as a reassertion of long standing but contradictory French preferences. French policy-makers have been caught in a dilemma with regard to the construction of the Economic dimension of EMU between two strong preferences: on the one hand the supranational consequences of a dirigiste approach to macro-economic policy and, on the other hand, a Gaullist reflex to retain sovereignty as much as possible and to insist upon intergovernmentalism in EU-level macroeconomic policy-making. The 'price stability' function of GE as embodied by the Maastricht Treaty rules on convergence and the SP has been consistently marginalized in the discourse of French governments of both the Right and Left. Rather EG has been presented in five overlapping ways which can all be seen in terms of the paradox of the French pursuit of both reinforced macroeconomic policy coordination at the EU level yet also national margin of manoeuvre through intergovernmental policy making. Crucially, this paradox also explains the lack of clarity and inconsistency in French pronouncements on GE. Most elements of the 2002 Commission and Ecofin SP reform proposals and the precise elements of the Pact reform finally agreed in March 2005 met with French approval given that they render the SP more flexible allowing greater margin of manoeuvre in the development and implementation of the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines (BEPG) and the application of the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP), thus better meeting French intergovernmentalist preferences on EG but undermining the coordination of national macroeconomic policies that could contribute to an effective policy mix with the ECB's monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

196. Economic Integration, EU-US Trade Conflicts and WTO Dispute Settlement

Author:
Fritz Breuss
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Research Papers Archive
Abstract:
Since its inception in 1995, more than 330 disputes have been raised under the WTO Dispute Settlement System. The major players in world trade–the EU and the USA–are also the busiest users of this instrument. After looking at links between economic integration and WTO involvement and a survey of the actual transatlantic WTO trade disputes, the welfare implications of the four most prominent trade disputes between the EU and the USA ("mini trade wars") are analyzed with GTAP5: the Hormones, the Bananas, the FSC and the Steel cases. The economic analysis reveals that the level of suspension of concessions hardly coincides with the level of nullification or impairment (expressed in lost trade effects) if one considers the overall welfare implications of retaliation with tariffs. The idea of "rebalancing" retaliation is a myth. Tariffs are a very bad instrument of retaliation. Maybe a mechanism of direct transfers or financial compensation would be better.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

197. Investment-Specific and Multifactor Productivity in Multi-Sector Open Economies: Data and Analysis

Author:
Luca Guerrieri, Dale W. Henderson, and Jinill Kim
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
In the last half of the 1990s, labor productivity growth rose in the U.S. and fell almost everywhere in Europe. We document changes in both capital deepening and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth in both the information and communication technology (ICT) and non-ICT sectors. We view MFP growth in the ICT sector as investment-specific productivity (ISP) growth. We perform simulations suggested by the data using a two-country DGE model with traded and nontraded goods. For ISP, we consider level increases and persistent growth rate increases that are symmetric across countries and allow for costs of adjusting capital-labor ratios that are higher in one country because of structural differences. ISP increases generate investment booms unless adjustment costs are too high. For MFP, we consider persistent growth rate shocks that are asymmetric. When such MFP shocks affect only traded goods (as often assumed), movements in 'international' variables are qualitatively similar to those in the data. However, when they also affect nontraded goods (as suggested by the data), movements in some of the variables are not. To obtain plausible results for the growth rate shocks, it is necessary to assume slow recognition.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

198. GSP in the "spaghetti bowl"; of trade preferences

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The paper examines the relative position of GSP (tariff preferences for developing countries) compared to ordinary tariffs and free trade agreements in Norway, the EU and the USA. On average, ordinary GSP gives a tariff rebate of less than 50% in all countries. “Extended” GSP, given to the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and others, implies zero tariffs in Norway and the EU, but only partial liberalisation in the USA. EU provides extended GSP for 119 countries, while the USA does so for 76 and Norway for 52. Considering the shares of trade rather than the number of countries, extended GSP covers 5% or less of total trade in all cases, and ordinary GSP is much more important. Compared to tariffs in free trade agreements, ordinary GSP is inferior in the USA and the EU, but not too far behind in Norway. This is due to recent cuts in MFN tariffs as well as improvements in the GSP system of Norway. For manufacturing, Norway has low tariffs and a generous GSP system. This is however not the case for agriculture.
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, and Third World
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Norway

199. The Norwegian Import Regime for Agriculture

Author:
Arne Melchior
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Norway maintains one of the highest levels of protection for agriculture in the OECD, but the tariff structure is not so transparent due to the extensive use of specific tariffs, i.e. tariffs expressed in NOK/kg or the like. In this paper, we use world market prices and Norwegian import prices to calculate ad valorem equivalents of specific tariffs. This shows that 28% of the tariff lines in agriculture are above 100%, and 10% are above 300%. The average of MFN applied tariffs is in the range 73-103%, depending on the calculation method. Protection is somewhat lower (54-74%) for goods exported by developing countries. While the Least Developed Countries have zero tariffs, other developing countries obtain 10-15% tariff reductions under the GSP system of tariff preferences. Tariff rate quotas provide some increase in market access. Protection of grains and feedstuff raises the forage costs in agriculture, and especially feedstuffs are important in the exports of developing countries.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Norway

200. Trade and development - a selective review

Author:
Per Botlof Maurseth
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper reviews parts of the recent literature on trade and growth. The relationships between trade and growth have been extensively studied in recent research. Many studies indicate that trade stimulates income and growth. The literature is controversial and many studies are criticised for weaknesses in methodology. Despite the methodological controversies, most evidence gives support for the view that trade stimulates growth. It is argued that major deficiency in the literature is that it does not discriminate between the impact of market access in other countries and the impact of liberal domestic trade policies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe