1 - 16 of 16
Number of results to display per page
Search Results
2. Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes
- Author:
- Sonali Chowdhry, Julian Hinz, Katrin Kamin, and Joschka Wanner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries.
- Topic:
- Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Sanctions, Alliance, and Embargo
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Asia, North America, and United States of America
3. Turkish drones, Greek challenges
- Author:
- Antonis Kamaras
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s capacity to conduct drone-led warfare, an evolution driven by its assertive national security and foreign policy. It connects this feature of Turkey’s war-fighting capability to the debate on the impact drones have on the modern battlefield and on conflictual interstate relations. The paper attributes the underdevelopment of Greece’s drone and counter-drone capacity to the country’s fiscal crisis and to the civilian leadership’s unwillingness to make use of Greece’s alliances, geographical position and R&D ecosystem to develop such capacities. The analysis identifies the factors and processes that can accelerate the speed at which the Greek armed forces ready themselves to meet the evolving challenges—including drones—posed by their assertive neighbour.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Drones, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, and Mediterranean
4. Israel Should Maintain its Mediterranean Alignment, Despite Signals from Ankara
- Author:
- Eran Lerman
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- It should be made clear to Israel’s partners in the eastern Mediterranean that any (unlikely) improvement in Israel’s relations with Turkey will not come at their expense. Despite some recent positive signals, Erdogan’s basic orientation as an Islamist is bound to remain hostile.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Alliance, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel
5. What threatens NATO – and what members can do? The case of Norway and Poland
- Author:
- Jakub M. Godzimirski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This research paper examines the critical external and internal challenges that faced NATO at its 70th anniversary, and how the policies of two members – Norway and Poland – can influence the internal cohesion of the Alliance and thus its ability to provide security to all its members. The survival of NATO as a viable security actor will depend on its capacity to maintain internal cohesion, a crucial factor influencing its ability to address external risks, challenges and threats in the increasingly turbulent international environment. This study places the debate in the broader context of discussion on alliance survivability in general, maps the external and internal challenges facing the Alliance after seven decades of its existence, and examines possible risks that the policies of Norway and Poland may pose to NATO’s internal cohesion and thus its ability to react to external challenges.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Norway, and Poland
6. Turkey, Pakistan: Inside the Ankara-Islamabad axis
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Turkey and Pakistan’s growing closeness has deep foundations. These are two countries following a similar trajectory.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Europe, Turkey, and Middle East
7. France Needs Israel as a Strong and Firm Ally
- Author:
- Olivier Rafowicz
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- Is President Macron capable of reshaping Franco-Israeli relations?
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Leadership, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, and France
8. Russia and Issues of HTS and Tanzim Hurras ad-Din
- Author:
- Anton Mardasov
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Moderate Syrian opposition includes some natives from Russia’s North Caucasus, although they are a minority. Caucasian and Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) natives were, in large part, members of the Islamic State (IS) or in some way linked to the forces formally led by Jabhat al-Nusra (JaN) and later by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Those who went to Syria and Iraq to fight can be roughly divided into two generations. The first one includes Caucasus Emirate members who responded to the call of Salafi sheikhs from Arab-Islamic centres. Natives of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kirghizia, and Turkmenistan (migrant workers, for the most part) were mainly recruited for jihad in Russia or within various diasporas across Europe.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Opposition
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Syria
9. Alliance Revitalized: NATO for a New Era
- Author:
- Hans Binnendijk, Daniel S. Hamilton, and Charles L. Barry
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- The NATO Alliance faces simultaneous dangers to its east, to its south, and from a series of security challenges unbounded by geography, at a time when disparate allied responses to a host of challenges are tearing the seams of European unity and American political figures have even questioned the need for NATO. Europe risks turning from an exporter of stability to an importer of instability. The vision of a Europe whole, free and at peace is challenged by a Europe fractured and anxious. The Alliance must be revitalized for the new world rising before us. An overarching Alliance strategy must rely on NATO’s ability to provide a full spectrum of deterrent and defense tools to provide collective defense for all of its members, together with an ability to project stability and resilience beyond its borders using an array of tools for crisis management.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Partnerships, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and North America
10. NATO: Going From the 2% Non-Solution to Meaningful Planning
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- As the Secretary General’s Annual Report for 2018 makes clear, NATO has many productive initiatives underway that focus on its real security needs, and that will help deter Russia and deal with the key issues in its military readiness and force planning. In fact, some 90% of the Secretary General’s report focuses on such issues. At the same time, NATO does not issue any net assessments of the balance between NATO and Russia and its capability to deter and fight. It does not openly address any of the many national problems and issues in current force structure nation-by-nation strength and readiness, and it has no coherent force and modernization plans for the future.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Military Spending, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Europe, North Atlantic, and North America
11. Transatlantic intelligence ties remain strong: Insulated against political turmoil
- Author:
- Christopher Kojm
- Publication Date:
- 08-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Headlines are rife with stories about political turmoil in transatlantic relations, and bitter disputes over trade and defence spending. Yet for the US Intelligence Community, ties with transatlantic partners have remained insulated against political differences. History shows that intelligence relationships follow their own logic.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Regional Cooperation, Alliance, and Transatlantic Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and North America
12. Islamist Archipelago: The Turkey-Qatar Nexus
- Author:
- Jonathan Spyer
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
- Abstract:
- The Turkey-Qatar-Muslim Brotherhood alliance first came to prominence in the early, optimistic months of the “Arab Spring.”
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Arab Spring, Alliance, and Muslim Brotherhood
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Qatar, and Persian Gulf
13. Russia-China Relations and the West
- Author:
- Marcin Kaczmarski
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Transatlantic Relations
- Abstract:
- This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Russia and the West: Reality Check." U.S. domination in global politics provided a powerful incentive for the post-Cold War rapprochement between Russia and China. The worsening of Russia’s relations with the West since 2014 made Moscow even more willing to offer significant concessions to Beijing. However, closer Russian-Chinese cooperation predates the Russian-Western crisis over Ukraine and reaches back to the 2008-2009 global economic crisis. Even the growing power asymmetry has not dissuaded Moscow from deepening its cooperation with China. This challenged widespread Western expectations that Russia would be eager to cooperate with the West in order to compensate for China’s increasing advantage. Hence, a potential improvement of Russian-Western relations is highly unlikely to result in the weakening of Russian-Chinese ties
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Trump, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, and United States of America
14. Multi-Stakeholder Partnership Development: For Sustainable Alliances in the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Ian Goodrich and Benoit Trudel
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The programme’s overall objective is ‘to contribute to the improvement of food security and nutrition in the South Caucasus through smallholder farmers’ representation in the governance processes’. It focuses on working with government structures and civil society actors to develop, implement and monitor food security-related strategies and legislation, ensuring that support mechanisms are in place for small-scale producers. The programme also supports national alliances and institution-building, enabling sustainable civil society engagement in the policy process, a critical component given Oxfam’s planned phase-out in 2017. This document particularly focuses on the programme’s use of the Social Network Analysis methodology to support the sustainability of its alliances.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Development, Alliance, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, Asia, and South Caucasus
15. Brexit and the Shifting Pillars of NATO
- Author:
- Julian Lindley-French
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
- Abstract:
- Will Britain’s departure from the EU lead to the creation of an Anglosphere and a Eurosphere within NATO? Unfortunately, there are a range of challenges to such a formulation. First, if the EU continues to drive a hard post-Brexit relationship with the British, it may be increasingly difficult for any government in London to convince the British people that other Europeans are worth defending. Second, would the United States, Canada and others entertain such an idea? Third, France is not going to abandon its strategic relationship with Britain – Brexit or no Brexit. Fourth, there will be a Brexit deal and Britain will remain a key factor in European defence. Fifth, “events, dear boy, events!” However, Brexit or no Brexit, NATO’s pillars are shifting. The United States will demand more of its allies if Washington is to maintain a credible security and defence guarantee for Europe. The changing nature of conflict will tend to emphasize intelligence and power projection, both of which play to Britain’s residual strengths. Canada? It is hard for an outsider to discern Canadian defence policy, other than bumbling along in strategic suburbia with the desire to be seen as the good neighbour. This is a mistake. NATO’s shifting pillars will have profound implications for Canadian security and defence policy. A formal Anglosphere and Eurosphere within NATO? Most likely not. A U.S.-sphere and German-sphere? Quite possibly, but don’t mention it in polite company. Canada? Who knows?
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, NATO, Brexit, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Europe, Canada, and North America
16. Public Diplomacy: A Remedy for NATO's Image Problem
- Author:
- Emine Akçadağ Alagöz
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- BILGESAM (Wise Men Center for Strategic Studies)
- Abstract:
- The new security threats that have appeared after the Cold War have showed that NATO still matters in helping to ensure global security. However, NATO‟s image has recently been deteriorating and its credibility has been damaged. That is why an effective public diplomacy seems indispensable to overcome this problem. Even though NATO has tried to implement an active public diplomacy since 2004 through its Public Diplomacy Division, the efforts seem to not yet be fulfilling. Thus, it is crucial for the Alliance to reshape its public diplomacy strategy.
- Topic:
- NATO, Diplomacy, Public Opinion, Alliance, and Soft Power
- Political Geography:
- Europe and North America