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352. Kosovo's Linchpin: Overcoming Division In Mitrovica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Mitrovica has become the linchpin of Kosovo's future united status. The stakes are high. If the international community cannot re-establish Mitrovica as a single city, efforts to preserve a united Kosovo will also fail.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Mitrovica
353. Bosnia's refugee logjam breaks: is the international community ready?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After four and a half year of concerted efforts by the international community, significant numbers of minority refugees are returning spontaneously to areas of Bosnia controlled by heretofore hostile ethnic majorities. This provides an opportunity to reverse wartime ethnic cleansing and make substantial progress toward achieving a core goal of the international community and the Dayton Peace Agreement. The requirement for modestly increased reconstruction and security assistance to facilitate this process, however, poses a challenge for governments and international aid and security organisations, many of which are seeking to wind down their Bosnia commitments. Absent such international community support and increased Bosnian government co-operation, the ceiling for returns may be low, and could jeopardise the success of current and future return efforts.
- Topic:
- Migration and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia and Eastern Europe
354. Serbia's Embattled Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent crackdown by the Belgrade regime on Serbia's independent media and political activists suggests that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is more vulnerable than it would appear. Since the Kosovo war ended, Milosevic has proven unable to expand his support base and must struggle with diminishing resources to keep restive constituencies intact. Despite its recognised weakness, the Serbian opposition is capable under certain conditions of removing Milosevic from power and offering better governance. The message of numerous public opinion polls over the past eight moths is that there is an anti-Milosvic majority in Serbia, but that the opposition must work together in coalitions to exploit it.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
355. Montenegro's Local Elections: Testing the National Temperature (Background Briefing)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Local elections are to be held in Podgorica and Herceg-Novi, two of Montenegro's 21 municipalities, on 11 June 2000. Their significance is wider than the simple question of who governs the two local authorities, for these will be the first elections in Montenegro since the victory of the "For a Better Life" coalition (DZB) under president Milo Djukanovic in general elections in May 1998. For this reason the results will be widely interpreted as a comment on the performance of Djukanovic so far, and a barometer of the political mood in the republic as a whole.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Montenegro
356. Montenegro's Socialist People's Party: A Loyal Opposition?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The assertion of the primacy of Serbian rights over all other peoples by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has driven nearly every nationality of the former Yugoslavia toward the Republic's exits. Even Montenegro, once Serbia's closest political and military ally, has not been immune from the turmoil that Slobodan Milosevic has created and has opted to distance itself from Belgrade's controlling influence.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro
357. Bosnia's Municipal Elections 2000: Winners and Losers
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The international community can draw a degree of comfort from the results of Bosnia's 8 April 2000 municipal elections. Overall, the voting was free of violence and more freeand fair than any previous election held in Bosnia. Nationalism may not be on the run yet—witness the strength of indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal Radovan Karadzic's Serbian Democratic Party (SDS)—but moderate leaders are making inroads and increasing numbers of voters seem to be paying attention to their messages.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Serbia
358. Reunifying Mostar: Opportunities for Progress
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Reunification of Mostar is key to the reintegration of separatist Herzegovinian Bosnian Croats into Bosnia. After years of fruitless post-Dayton efforts to wean the Bosnian Croats from Zagreb and reorient them toward a constructive role in Bosnia, the international community at long last has the capability to achieve this goal. The success of the democratic forces in Croatia in the January-February elections there has brought reliable partners to power with whom the international community can work in Bosnia. Policy initiatives in Herzegovina will not require new resources and, if achieved, can lead to a reduction in the international profile in Bosnia. Failure to act on these opportunities will cripple the Bosnian peace effort and weaken the new government in Croatia. These issues present serious policy challenges.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia
359. Montenegro: In the Shadow of the Volcano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Montenegro has been a crisis-in-waiting for two years now, with Belgrade opposing efforts by a reform-minded government under President Milo Djukanovic to distance itself ever further from its federal partner Serbia. Federal President Slobodan Milosevic has steadily escalated the pressure against Djukanovic, probing the extent of NATO support for Montenegro and pushing the Montenegrins toward a misstep that might undermine their international backing. Each of the three possible policy-paths facing the Montenegro government, however, is unappealing in its own way:Going ahead with a referendum on independence for Montenegro would risk radicalising a population still peacefully divided over the issue, and would offer maximum provocation to Belgrade, which retains a powerful military presence in Montenegro. Maintaining the status quo may offer a better chance of avoiding open confrontation with Belgrade, but it leaves Montenegro in a limbo. Its friends are not offering all the help they could, on the grounds that it is not a sovereign state; but prospects for selfgenerated income through inward investment or revival of the tourist industry are still hostage to international risk perceptions. Achieving rapprochement with the Serbian government would be possible if Milosevic went. But Montenegro cannot afford to leave its future in the unsure hands of the present Serbian opposition. And as the atmosphere in Serbia steadily worsens, political and public opinion in Montenegro appears to grow ever less willing to compromise.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro
360. What Happened to the KLA?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The end of the war over Kosovo brought the transformation of the guerrilla army that started it. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA - or UÇK in the Albanian acronym) has been formally demilitarised, but in various manifestations it remains a powerful and active element in almost every area of Kosovo life. Some welcome its continued influence; others fear it; many are concerned about it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania
361. Albania: State of the Nation
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- During the spring of 1999, more than 450,000 Kosovo Albanian refugees flooded into Albania, many of them forcibly deported by Serb forces in Kosovo. Despite Albania's acute poverty, many Albanians opened their homes to provide shelter to the incoming refugees and the government spared no effort, organising humanitarian relief and putting the entire country at the disposal of NATO. As a result, in the eyes of its people, Albania has secured its position as the spiritual motherland of all ethnic Albanians, and as such expects to play a prominent role in future pan-Albanian aspirations.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania
362. Denied Justice: Individuals Lost in a Legal Maze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Thousands of people try to find their way daily through an immensely complicated labyrinth established by the three separate and very often conflicting legal systems in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Evidence presented in this report, the third in the ICG legal project series, proves that unexplained time delays, dubious application of law and blatant ethnic discrimination contribute greatly to the ad hoc nature of Bosnian justice.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
363. Albanians in Serbian Prisons: Kosovo's Unfinished Business
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the immense challenges facing the international community in its effort to secure and rebuild Kosovo, one critical outstanding matter that has received very little attention is the ongoing detention in Serbian prisons of several thousand Kosovar Albanians. Arrested by Serbian forces in the course of the Kosovo conflict, these prisoners were hastily transferred to Serbian jails and penitentiaries in the wake of the Kumanovo military-technical agreement, which ended the NATO air campaign and established a timetable for the withdrawal from Kosovo of all Serb forces.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania
364. East-West Integration and the Changing German Production Regime: A Firm-Centered Approach
- Author:
- Katharina Bluhm
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- With the opening of Central Eastern Europe German firms have gained access to low labor costs in close geographical proximity. Intense debate about the impact this has had on the “German model” of capitalism has ensued. This paper argues that, in fact, production shifts are taking place in which cost-cutting motives are an important guideline. German firms, however, hesitate to aggressively utilize this new option in their internal domestic labor policy. Rather, firms tend to avoid confrontations with their employees on “job exports”. The necessity of collaboration on both sides of the border, the relative strength of workers in the domestic high-quality production system, and the constraints of industrial relations provide explanations for the moderate behavior. So far, the outcome of the bargained reorganization is that firms gain more labor flexibility, performance-related differentiation, and labor-cost rationalization without challenging the institutionalized long-term employment commitments for their core workforce.
- Topic:
- Economics and Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Germany
365. Regional Policy in the Process of Integration
- Author:
- Aleko Djildjov and Vasil Marinov
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- There are different possible approaches to solving this problem. Considering its extreme complexity, and especially the lack of relevant practices in market economic conditions and in a democratic decision-making process, one of the possible solutions is the study and analysis, of the experience of other countries. If relevant, these experiences in countries which have already institutionalized regional development can be promoted. Although the experience of the countries in the EU, of which Bulgaria aspires to become a member, is important, it is even more important to study the current experience of countries in which conditions are closer to those in Bulgaria.
- Topic:
- Development, International Cooperation, and International Organization
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Bulgaria
366. Dealing with the Past: The Case of Estonia
- Author:
- Hanna Järä
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- An essential challenge facing a society in transition stems from the legacy of the former power elite. A compelling need to restore moral order by the assessment of the abdication of the rule of law and violations of human rights requires an opportunity to face the past and its consequences. The process of dealing with the past includes a strong commitment to revealing the truth and redressing the past. The critical question around the issue is what is considered a proper reaction towards leaders and perpetrators who were responsible for oppressive activities and other violations of human rights, many of whom remain part of the new political structures or hold important positions in public life. The central tension is between the politics of compromise, the essence of which is to leave the past intact, and the radical notion of justice. Thus, the key dilemma facing the emerging democracies is whether past violations should be forgotten or confronted, forgiven or prosecuted.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Estonia
367. The Criterion of Citizenship for Minorities: The Example of Estonia
- Author:
- Carmen Thiele
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- Using the example of Estonia, the criterion of citizenship as a prerequisite for membership in a national minority and its legal consequences for persons belonging to these groups is discussed. While at the universal level minority protection is considered as a basic human right, at the European level it is still viewed as a right of citizens. The author pleads for a simplification of the naturalisation process and the renouncing of the citizenship criterion as a requirement for membership of a national minority.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, International Law, and Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Estonia
368. Bilateral Agreements in Central and Eastern Europe: A New Inter-State Framework for Minority Protection?
- Author:
- Kinga Gál
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- The practice of bilateral agreements on good neighbourly relations was 'reinvented' by Germany after 1991 to guarantee the frontiers resulting from World War II and to protect the minorities of German origin in Central and Eastern Europe. A similar policy was pursued by Hungary with five of its neighbours to deal with the problems of the Hungarian minorities. Parallel to this trend, the European Union has also promoted a policy aimed at guaranteeing stability in Central and Eastern Europe through bilateral agreements on good neighbourliness. The bilateral treaties follow each other in time, structure and content. They incorporate soft law provisions, especially with regard to their minority regulations, reflecting the strong influence of the political factor. They do not mention collective rights and fail to provide the national minorities concerned with any form of self-government. Furthermore, they were often negotiated in the absence of the minority communities they were designed to protect. As these treaties are politically highly motivated, the political aspects of the implementation mechanisms have received primacy over the legal possibilities. The treaties, and hence indirectly the provisions of international documents enshrined in them, have the same status as national legislation and could therefore be claimed before national courts. However, the joint intergovernmental committees monitoring implementation have the potential to become the most effective implementation mechanism. In conclusion, although these treaties have not significantly changed the existing practice of minority protection so far, their importance should not be diminished because they contribute to the construction of a new inter-state framework for minority protection.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Germany
369. The Albanian Aromanians' Awakening: Identity Politics and Conflicts in Post-Communist Albania
- Author:
- Stephanie Schwandner-Sievers
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- Today, many thousands of Aromanians (also known as "Vlachs") live quite compactly in Northern Greece, Macedonia (FYROM) and southern Albania; and there are still traces of Vlach-Aromanian and Aromanian populations in Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia and Romania. In Albania, they were recently estimated at about 200,000 by the English scholar Tom Winnifrith. In Albanian communist times, Aromanians were not recognised as a separate minority group, officially considered to be almost completely assimilated. However, in the early post-communist transition period, a vivid Aromanian ethnic movement emerged in Albania and it became part of a recent global Balkan Aromanian initiative. The Albanian Aromanians' new emphasis of their ethnicity can be seen as a pragmatic strategy of adjustment to successes and failures in the Albanian political transition and to globalisation. It is exactly the re-vitalisation of the conflict between followers of a pro-Greek and a pro-Romanian Aromanian identification that serves to broaden the scope of options for potential exploitation.
- Topic:
- Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
370. Ukraine: Challenges of the Continuing Transition
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The views expressed are those of individuals and do not represent official US intelligence or policy positions. The NIC routinely sponsors such unclassified conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
371. Blunder in the Balkans: The Clinton Administration's Bungled War against Serbia
- Author:
- Christopher Layne
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- The Clinton administration has made one miscalculation after another in dealing with the Kosovo crisis. U.S. officials and their NATO colleagues never understood the historical and emotional importance of Kosovo to the Serbia n people, believing instead that Belgrade's harsh repression of the ethnic Albanian secessionist movement in Kosovo merely reflected the will of President Slobodan Milosevic of Yugoslavia. The administration's foreign policy team mistakenly concluded that, under a threat of air strikes, the Yugoslav government would sign a dictate d peace accord (the Rambouillet agreement) to be implemented by a NATO peacekeeping force in Kosovo. Even if Milosevic initially refused to sign the Rambouillet agreement, administration leaders believed that Belgrade would relent after a brief “demonstration” bombing campaign. Those calculations proved to be disastrously wrong.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania
372. U.S. Assistance for Market Reforms: Foreign Aid Failures in Russia and the Former Soviet Bloc
- Author:
- Janine R. Wedel
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, the governments of the United States and other Western countries have provided massive aid to promote a transition to the free market in Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. But aid for market reforms in the region has been largely ineffective. Whether provided in the form of technical assistance, grants to political groups or nongovernmental organizations, loans and guarantees to the private sector, or direct financial aid to post-communist governments, that aid has been plagued by a number of problems. The failed $22.6 billion bailout of Russia by the International Monetary Fund in July 1998 only confirmed the flawed nature of the aid-for-reform approach.
- Topic:
- Economics and Emerging Markets
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union
373. Iraq's Transition: On a Knife Edge
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The situation in Iraq is more precarious than at any time since the April 2003 ouster of the Baathist regime, largely reflecting the Coalition's inability to establish a legitimate and representative political transition process. The broad plan sketched out by UN Special Adviser Lakhdar Brahimi, the apparent willingness of the U.S. to delegate at least some political responsibility to the UN and the decision to loosen the de-Baathification decree are all steps in the right direction. But critical questions remain both unanswered and, in some cases, unasked.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Eastern Europe, and United Nations
374. Rule of Law in Public Administration: Confusion and Discrimination in a Post-Communist Bureaucracy
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- To date, little attention has been paid to the role public administration plays in enforcing or violating the human rights and civil liberties of Bosnia and Herzegovina's citizens. Instead, much effort is concentrated on reforming the court system. Yet, the justice system in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) comprises far more than the court system. It also consists of "administrative justice," where small-scale rulings by seemingly minor municipal and cantonal officials in a variety of public administrative organs, exercise a huge influence on the lives and legal rights of ordinary citizens. Many of these rulings prevent citizens from exercising their legal rights and gaining access to due process of law.</p
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
375. Trepca: Making Sense of the Labyrinth
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The enterprise known as Trepca is a sprawling conglomerate of some 40 mines and factories, located mostly in Kosovo but also in other locations in Serbia and Montenegro. Its activities include chemical processing and production of goods as varied as batteries and paint. But the heart of its operations, and the source of most of its raw material, is the vast mining complex to the east of Mitrovicë/a in the north of Kosovo, famous since Roman times. This report examines the current position of the mines, together with the associated smelting complex at nearby Zvecan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro
376. Starting from Scratch in Kosovo: The Honeymoon Is Over
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After an unprecedented, multilateral military intervention in Kosovo succeeded in expelling Serb forces and enabling the return home of more than a million displaced persons, the international community embarked on the ambitious, long-term project of securing, rebuilding, and establishing the rule of law in Kosovo, while setting the territory on the path to self-governance. Visionary promises were made to the people of Kosovo, and careful planning was undertaken at NATO and United Nations headquarters and in many European capitals. But six months into the mission, the international community has so far not been able to deliver on its promises. No Kosovars of any ethnicity feel secure, tens of thousands of people remain without adequate shelter as winter sets in, civil registration has yet to get underway, there is as yet no agreed-upon, functional system of justice, and criminals – including suspected war criminals – continue to operate with effective impunity.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations
377. Is Dayton Failing?: Bosnia Four Years After the Peace Agreement
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In anticipation of the fourth anniversary on 21 November 1999 of the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, this report presents a detailed analysis of the agreement and the future of the Bosnian peace process. The report assesses efforts to implement the agreement annex by annex, identifying obstacles to continued progress and setting out key choices facing international policymakers.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia and Eastern Europe
378. Waiting For UNMIK: Local Administration in Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- More than four months have passed since the start of the deployment of the United Nations in Kosovo. While first efforts were concentrated on the creation of a secure environment and the distribution of humanitarian aid, Civil Administration, the pillar of UNMIK which plays the role of a government, has been slow in reaching the local level.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations
379. Macedonia: Gearing up for Presidential Elections
- Publication Date:
- 10-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 31 October and 14 November 1999, Macedonian citizens will go to the polls to elect a successor to 82-year-old President Kiro Gligorov, who is stepping down after two terms in office.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Macedonia
380. Transforming Serbia: the Key to Long Term Stability
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The NATO intervention in Serbia and the indictment of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have created openings within Serbian society and exposed cleavages within the regime that should be rapidly exploited to hasten Milosevic's departure and bring about genuine political change. The loss of Kosovo, the destruction resulting from the bombing, and the refusal of the international community to rebuild Serbia until Milosevic is out of power have occasioned widespread despair among Serbs who have come to view their country's future under its present leadership as a dead end.
- Topic:
- NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
381. Who's Who in Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- This paper offers a brief guide to the leading indigenous political organisations and personalities in Kosovo/Kosova. The authority of the international civil and military presence in Kosovo rests on UN Security Council Resolution 1244 of 10 June 1999. Under international law no other authority enjoys any legitimacy until the UN administration grants it.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and United Nations
382. Montenegro Briefing: Calm Before the Storm
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Just under a year ago a nervous Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic warned the world that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic was preparing to trigger a new Balkan war by launching a campaign of violence against the tiny republic of Montenegro. Djukanovic was right about Milosevic's intent, but wrong about the target. In March of this year, the dictator struck against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo and unleashed the barbarous Operation Horseshoe.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Albania, and Montenegro
383. Preventing Minority Return in Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Anatomy of Hate and Fear
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 1999 action plan of the Reconstruction and Return Task Force (RRTF) represents the most determined effort yet to implement a policy of mass minority return in Bosnia and Herzegovina. But the signs at mid-season are that the results for 1999 will once again be disappointing.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and War
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
384. Rule Over Law: Obstacles to the Development of an Independent Judiciary in BIH
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- ICG, with the support of the European Commission, has established a project to promote justice in Bosnia and Herzegovina. With the assistance of 8 partner organisations based all over BiH, ICG will monitor individual cases and general trends to highlight and promote the development of a judicial system in BiH up to the standards of a modern, European judiciary. This first, introductory report examines the factors preventing the development of an independent judiciary, and outlines steps necessary to promote judicial independence.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Human Rights
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
385. Republika Srpska in The Post-Kosovo Era: Collateral Damage and Transformation
- Publication Date:
- 07-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Repercussions from Kosovo continue to shake Republika Srpska (RS), and may prove a catalyst for further transformation and reform. The war's collateral damage included severance of trade ties with the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); a dramatic rise in unemployment; a sharp drop in production and state revenues; and a tide of Serbian refugees from FRY into RS.
- Topic:
- Economics, Government, Migration, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
386. Back To The Future: Milosevic Prepares for Life After Kosovo
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 28 June 1989, Slobodan Milosevic stood on the site of the ancient Serb battleground of Kosovo Polje and delivered the speech that was to propel him to prominence and the leadership of. Ten years on, Milosevic remains firmly entrenched in power. He has survived three Balkan wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, economic sanctions, 78 days of NATO air strikes, and an indictment on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, and Croatia
387. The New Kosovo Protectorate
- Publication Date:
- 06-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The ICG Balkans Report N°66, "Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia", of 17 May 1999 looked at how experience in Bosnia could be useful in Kosovo, and also at the extent to which the Rambouillet agreement of 23 February 1999 resembled the Dayton agreement of 21 November 1995.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo
388. Macedonia: Towards Destabilisation? The Kosovo crisis takes its toll on Macedonia
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since NATO bombing of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia began on 24 March 1999, Macedonia has been in an extremely vulnerable frontline position, facing an unmanageable influx of refugees from Kosovo, the prospect of economic collapse and volatile domestic interethnic relations.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Macedonia
389. Kosovo: Let's Learn from Bosnia
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After almost three and a half years working in Bosnia to implement the Dayton Peace Agreement, the international community will soon face the prospect of establishing a presence in Kosovo. The model proposed at Rambouillet was very similar to that set up at Dayton, but the situation now is very different. This report examines the international effort in Bosnia to see whether lessons can be drawn for Kosovo and other possible future international administrations.
- Topic:
- Security, Migration, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Kosovo
390. Milosevic's Aims in War and Diplomacy
- Publication Date:
- 05-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The limits of the West's resolve to enforce a solution to the crisis in the Balkans were freshly exposed last week at a press briefing by U.S. President Bill Clinton. Speaking to reporters on 6 May 1999, Clinton admitted that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic might well survive the current crisis and remain in power in Belgrade as long as he accepted the West's terms for a settlement in Kosovo and permitted refugees to return home. He also made clear that a NATO invasion of Yugoslavia from the north, the one option open to the West that would facilitate the forcible removal of the Milosevic regime and with it the greatest single source of instability in the Balkans, was something "our (NATO's) goals never entailed".
- Topic:
- International Relations, NATO, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
391. Why Will No One Invest In Bosnia and Herzegovina?
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The donor countries hoped the governments of Bosnia and Herzegovina would use the promised $ 5.1 Billion post-war reconstruction aid to undertake the structural changes necessary to transition from communism to capitalism. As donor-aid diminished, private investment would replace it, stimulated by structural reforms. Unfortunately, this has not been the case. Indeed, interviews with Bosnian and foreign businessmen show a common reluctance to invest in BiH.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
392. War in The Balkans: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- NATO's strategy in the war with Yugoslavia over Kosovo isn't working. As the Alliance's bombing campaign enters its fourth week, it is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is still winning the political game.
- Topic:
- Security, NATO, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
393. Republika Srpska - Poplasen, Brcko and Kosovo: Three Crises and Out?
- Publication Date:
- 04-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The early part of 1999 has been turbulent for Republika Srpska. Political life has been unsettled by three separate and hardly-related crises: the decision of the High Representative to remove from office the RS President Nikola Poplasen; the decision of International Arbitrator Roberts Owen to give the municipality of Brcko neither to RS nor to the Federation but to both as a condominium; and the NATO air-strikes on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY).
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, NATO, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia
394. Macedonia Update: Challenges and Choices for the New Government
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The new Macedonian government marked its first hundred days in office in early March. Formed by the Macedonian Internal Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) after the last parliamentary elections in October and November 1998, the government is headed by VMRO- DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski and has a comfortable majority of 73 out of 120 seats in the current parliament.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
395. Unifying The Kosovar Factions: The Way Forward
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Kosovo peace talks, held at Rambouillet (France) under the auspices of the sixnation Contact Group, have been suspended until 15 March 1999 after a provisional agreement was reached on granting substantial autonomy for Kosovo. However, neither the Kosovo Albanians nor Serbian delegates have yet signed the draft peace accord, which calls for a NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, and in which the "final status" issue has been deliberately fudged. The immense complexities of the Kosovo question were dramatically illustrated at Rambouillet by the last-minute refusal of the Albanian delegation to sign the accord, due to pressure from a hardline faction of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) which refused to attend the talks.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
396. Kosovo: The Road To Peace Critical Implementation Issues And a "Who's Who" of Key Players
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While last spring saw conflict erupt in Kosovo's central Drenica region when Serbian security forces attacked and killed residents of the villages of Prekaz and Likoshan, this spring brings the possibility of peace. The proposed deployment of a 28,000-strong international force for Kosovo will dramatically and immediately halt the sporadic low-intensity battles between Serbian security forces and ethnic Albanian rebels that have displaced 300,000 people. This peace will allow refugees to return to their homes, and provide the day-to-day sense of security on the ground that will enable Kosovo's transition to self-government.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia
397. Sidelining Slobodan: Getting rid of Europe's last dictator
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With just over two years to run before the end of his term as Yugoslav President, Slobodan Milosevic remains entrenched in power in Belgrade. The Yugoslav constitution currently prevents the President from running for re-election in 2001, but while Milosevic may leave the presidency he shows no sign of forfeiting control and is in the process of purging both the army and secret police of all opposition. He also retains some residual influence over such cultural institutions as the Orthodox Church. Individuals who oppose his views and who are potential political opponents are invariably intimidated, often through brute force. Political party rivals are both attacked in the state and pro-regime press and also courted with the prospect of sharing power. The latest to succumb to that temptation has been Vuk Draskovic's Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO).
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Ethnic Conflict, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Yugoslavia
398. Breaking The Mould: Electoral Reform In Bosnia And Herzegovina
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Electoral reform is on the agenda this year in Bosnia and Herzegovina. For too long the country has been ruled by leaders who draw support from only one of the three main ethnic groups. These leaders have been unable to co-operate on even the simplest matters, inhibiting the implementation of the Dayton Peace Agreement (DPA) and forcing the international community to micromanage the country. Electoral reform offers one promising way to allow Bosnians to choose less confrontational leaders, and so start to accept responsibility for their own future.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
399. Brcko: A Comprehensive Solution
- Publication Date:
- 02-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Arbitral Tribunal on Brcko meets this month, and may or may not this time make its final decision, after postponements in 1997 and 1998. An award to either the Federation or Republika Srpska would provoke an extreme reaction: ICG advocates that a final decision should be made now, and that Brcko municipality should be reunited and made an autonomous district under the constitutional jurisdiction of the central government of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
400. Macedonia:"New Faces In Skopje"
- Publication Date:
- 01-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent parliamentary elections and the change of government in Macedonia in many respects are a landmark in the country's development. The smooth transition of power from one political camp to another and the fact that the "radicals" from both major ethnic groups rather than the more moderate parties form the new government are significant in themselves. If the new government manages to solve Macedonia's problems, it might also have repercussions throughout the region. This report, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Skopje, looks back and draws lessons from the elections and the formation of the new government, looks ahead at the key policy changes facing the new administration, and assesses the capacity of the ruling coalition to meet those challenges.
- Topic:
- Economics, Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe