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52. Bosnia: Reshaping the International Machinery
- Publication Date:
- 11-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After six years and billions of dollars spent, peace implementation in Bosnia and Herzegovina remains far from complete. Reshaping (ërecalibratingí, in local jargon) the international community (IC) presence is vital if the peace process is to have a successful outcome.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia and Eastern Europe
53. Croatia: Facing Up To War Crimes
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 8 October 2001, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) confirmed an indictment charging Slobodan Milosevic, the former president of Serbia and of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), with crimes committed in Croatia. This indictment had been keenly awaited for years in Croatia, where a widespread perception of international indifference to Serb crimes perpetrated against Croats between 1991 and 1995 has been ably encouraged and manipulated by the right wing.
- Topic:
- Development, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Croatia
54. Wages of Sin: Confronting Bosnia's Republika Srpska
- Publication Date:
- 10-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- By recognising Republika Srpska (RS) as a legitimate polity and constituent entity of the new Bosnia, the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement embraced a contradiction. For the RS was founded as a stepping stone to a ëGreater Serbiaí and forged in atrocities against ñ and mass expulsions of ñ non-Serbs.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia and Eastern Europe
55. Serbia's Transition: Reforms Under Siege
- Publication Date:
- 09-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 3 August 2001 murder of former State Security (DB) official Momir Gavrilovic acted as a catalyst for the emergence of a long-hidden feud within Serbia's ruling DOS (Democratic Opposition of Serbia) coalition. Inflamed by Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica's closest advisers, the 'Gavrilovic Affair' has driven a wedge into DOS that could spell the end of the coalition in its present form. In so doing, Kostunica's Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) has been exposed more clearly than before as a conservative nationalist party intent on preserving certain elements of the Milosevic regime.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Serbia
56. Albania's Parliamentary Elections 2001
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Socialist Party's decision on 21 August to nominate Ilir Meta for another term as Prime Minister closed out the longest election in Albania's turbulent post-communist history. Voting for the parliament was held, extraordinarily, in four rounds on 24 June 2001, and 8, 22 and 29 July due to accusations of electoral fraud in various forms. It was, nevertheless, peaceful and produced a decisive victory for the ruling Socialist Party (SP). The Socialists, who have held power since 1997, won 73 seats in the 140-member legislature, against 46 for the Union for Victory (UfV) coalition, led by the Democratic Party (DP). The remaining 21 seats were allocated among five small parties, each of which gained the necessary 2.5 per cent of votes, and two independent candidates who won direct mandates. The results gave the Socialists a sufficient majority to form a new government and, crucially, with the aid of likely allies, to elect a new president in 2002 when the term of the incumbent, Rexhep Meidani, expires. Formation of that government, however, was delayed further weeks until the SP's General Steering Committee gave Meta an overwhelming victory in his bitter personal battle with the party chairman, Fatos Nano, who backed his own man for the prime minister's chair.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
57. Macedonia: War on Hold
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Macedonian and Albanian political leaders signed a political agreement – hailed by its Western midwives as a peace agreement – on 13 August 2001. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson and the European Union's High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Javier Solana, flew to Skopje to attend the signing ceremony. But the strange context of the signing showed just how implausible it is that, without further extraordinary efforts, the agreement will actually provide a workable way to keep multiethnic Macedonia out of civil war. Details of the agreement had been hammered out by 8 August in Ohrid, a resort town chosen for the negotiations because it was some distance away from the latest fighting. Signature was delayed five days, however, while Macedonian government troops and ethnic Albanian rebels engaged in the deadliest series yet of tit-for-tat retaliations. Terms of the agreement were withheld from the public lest they provoke violent responses from hardliners on both sides. The ceremony, when it finally occurred, was carried out almost furtively, in a small room of the President's residence, without live television.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
58. Peace in Presevo: Quick Fix or Long Term Solution?
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The past decade in the Western Balkans has seen very few peacefully negotiated transfers of territorial control. The most recent example ñ albeit one not involving any change of sovereignty - was also the only one achieved by NATOís direct mediation. In May 2001, the Presevo Valley was brought back under Serbian government control, ending an ethnic Albanian insurgency that had lasted some seventeen months.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Balkans
59. Montenegro: Resolving the Independence Deadlock
- Publication Date:
- 08-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Ten months after the fall of Slobodan Miloöević , considerable progress has been made in establishing democratic governance in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and reintegrating the country into the international community. Yet the future of the federation itself remains in doubt. The FRY is a hollow edifice whose institutions hardly function except as an address for the international community. Montenegroís authorities no longer recognise the legitimacy of the federal government. All sides agree that the status quo is unsustainable and that Montenegro and Serbia must find a new basis for their relationship.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe
60. Macedonia: Still Sliding
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite the ceasefire announced on 26 July 2001, and the promised resumption of political talks in Tetovo on 27 July, Macedonia is still locked in crisis and threatened by war. Neither ethnic Macedonian nor ethnic Albanian leaders have been converted to belief in a 'civic' settlement that would strengthen democracy by improving minority conditions, without weakening the integrity of the state. Ethnic Macedonians fear that civic reforms will transform the country exclusively to its, and their, detriment, while ethnic Albanians are sceptical that any reforms can really be made to work in their favour. Nor have separatists from both sides, within the country and in the diaspora, given up their conviction that security for their communities can only be achieved by demarcating – and hence competing for – ethnically “pure” territory.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
61. Milosevic in the Hague: What it Means for Yugoslavia and the Region
- Publication Date:
- 07-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- On 28 June 2001, St Vitus's Day – an anniversary with enormous resonance in Yugoslavia – Serbian government transferred former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic to The Hague. By this bold political move, the government demonstrated in the clearest way its will to break with the past. With the timing driven by the international donors conference scheduled for 29 June, the transfer also confirmed the effectiveness of conditioning economic assistance to Yugoslavia on concrete political progress.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
62. Macedonia: The Last Chance for Peace
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the past three months, since mid March 2001, Macedonia has stared into the abyss of inter-ethnic conflict, pulled away from the precipice, squandered opportunities for a political settlement, then returned as if sleepwalking to the brink of civil war. The downward spiral was interrupted on 11 June, when the Macedonian government and the ethnic Albanian rebels agreed to a ceasefire. The following day the government abruptly endorsed a peace plan proposed by President Boris Trajkovski. For their part, the NLA guerrillas expressed a readiness to halt their insurgency but want to see concrete steps towards improving Albanian rights.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, and War
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Macedonia, and Albania
63. A Fair Exchange: Aid to Yugoslavia for Regional Stability
- Publication Date:
- 06-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The donors' conference for the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), planned for 29 June 2001 in Brussels, will set the pattern of international economic assistance to Belgrade for the next year or more. In return for substantial donor support, the international community should require the FRY to undertake a number of specific steps that are essential for increasing regional stability.
- Topic:
- Debt, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Brussels
64. Albania: The State of the Nation 2001
- Publication Date:
- 05-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- This report describes the current situation in Albania, paying particular attention to relations with the country's Balkan neighbours, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Greece. The recent upsurge in fighting in the Presevo Valley of southern Serbia and in Macedonia has damaged the reputation of all Albanians in the region and has once more raised the spectre of a Greater Albania. Consequently, the Albanian government has been at pains to stress that it does not support the ethnic Albanian insurgents and wishes to see the territorial integrity of Macedonia upheld. To this end, Tirana has requested NATO's assistance to secure the Albania-Macedonia border, and has called for a solution to the crisis through dialogue.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Greece, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, and Tirana
65. After Milosevic: A Practical Agenda for Lasting Balkans Peace
- Publication Date:
- 04-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Slobodan Milosevic has gone, but he has left behind him in the Balkans a bitter legacy of death, destruction and distrust. His democratic overthrow was a watershed, but the potential for renewed conflict in the region remains dangerously high, and it is vital that there be forward - looking and comprehensive action by the international community to address the continuing sources of underlying tension.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Balkans
66. Montenegro: Settling for Independence?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2001
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- International relief at the fall of the regime of Slobodan Miloević has been marred by dismay at the prospect of a breakaway from the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) by Montenegro. As long as Milo.ević was in power, the international community supported Montenegro.s moves to distance itself from Belgrade. With Milo.ević gone, it was widely expected that Belgrade and Podgorica could patched up their relationship, and find a satisfactory accommodation within the framework of the FRY. Montenegrin President Milo Djukanović.s decision to opt instead for independence has caused international consternation.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Sovereignty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Montenegro
67. The New Slovak Language Law: Internal or External Politics?
- Author:
- Farimah Daftary and Kinga Gál
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- In Central and Eastern Europe, where language is the central defining element of the ethnic group, language policy becomes the cornerstone of constructing the identity of new states. In the multiethnic state or plural democratic state, policies aimed at promoting the language of the titular nation become the primary means of validating the moral worth of one ethnic group over the others. The example of independent Slovakia illustrates the political importance of language in Central and Eastern Europe and the virulence of the conflicts which arise between majorities and minorities over language issues. The continuous disputes between the Slovak leadership and the Hungarian minority over minority issues in general, and language-related issues specifically, have shown how sensitive language demands are during the early phases of state-building. In Slovakia, where the emphasis was on the ethnic rather than the civic dimension of nationhood, language policy served a twofold purpose: by giving the Slovak language a dominant position in the state, it sought to foster Slovak ethnic identity as the identity of the Slovak nation-state; and it was at the same time a method for promoting the assimilation of non-ethnic Slovak citizens. In reality, anti-minority policies in Slovakia (or policies perceived as such) fell within a broader set of anti-opposition policies as the State attempted to extend control and establish moral monopoly over not only language but also the fields of culture, education, economy, etc.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Slovakia
68. Democracy Assistance and NGO Strategies in Post-Communist Societies
- Author:
- Sarah E. Mendelson and John K. Glenn
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Since the end of the Cold War, Eastern Europe and Eurasia have been host to a virtual army of Western non-governmental organizations (NGOs)-from the United States, Britain, Germany, and elsewhere in Europe-all working on various aspects of institutional development, such as helping to establish competitive political parties and elections, independent media, and civic advocacy groups, as well as trying to reduce ethnic conflict. Little is known-although much good and bad is believed-about the impact of this assistance, carried out on a transnational level in cooperation with local political and social activists. This study, based at Columbia University, was designed to address this gap.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Government, International Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia
69. Bosnia's November Elections: Dayton Stumbles
- Publication Date:
- 12-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite five years and five billion US dollars of international community investment in Bosnia, the 11 November Bosnian elections demonstrated once again that international engagement has failed to provide a sustainable basis for a functioning state, capable of surviving an international withdrawal.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, Bosnia, and Eastern Europe
70. Montenegro: Which Way Next?
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The removal of Slobodan Milošević's regime, with its poisonous influence on the entire Balkan region, raises hopes that a host of inter-connected problems may now stand a significantly better chance of being resolved, including the future status of Kosovo and of Montenegro, both notionally still a part of the Yugoslav federation.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Balkans, and Montenegro
71. War Criminals in Bosnia's Republika Srpska: Who are the People in Your Neighbourhood?
- Publication Date:
- 11-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Five years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords, which brought an end to almost four years of bloody war in Bosnia, many of those believed to have carried out some of the war's worst atrocities remain at large. The continued presence in the municipalities of Republika Srpska (RS) of individuals suspected of war crimes—some indicated either publicly or secretly by the International War Crimes Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY)—represents a significant obstacle to the return of ethnic minority refugees. It also undermines seriously Bosnia's chances for building central institutions, generating self-sustainable economic growth, and achieving the political transformation necessary to begin the process of integration with the rest of Europe. Moreover, the continued commitment of most war crimes suspects to the goal of a Greater Serbia, and their willingness to use violence to achieve it, could—in the long term—provoke renewed conflict in Bosnia and continued instability in the Balkans.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Balkans
72. Reaction in Kosovo to Kostunica's Victory
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- While the world watched in fascination as mass demonstrations in Belgrade toppled Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic from power, Kosovo—where Milosevic had committed some of his worst crimes—had an almost eerie air of normalcy. On the night Milosevic fell, cafés were full and the usual crowd of young people strolled along Pristina's central artery, Mother Theresa Street. But Pristina's surface in difference masked serious unease about events in Serbia and especially about the swelling international welcome for newly elected President Vojislav Kostunica. Kosovo Albania's political circles, opinion leaders, and public, which for long had a head-in-the-sand approach toward the rise of the democratic opposition in Belgrade, are only beginning to come to grips with the changed political landscape in the Balkans caused by Milosevic's fall.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania
73. Sanctions Against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia
- Publication Date:
- 10-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As governments embark on the process of lifting sanctions against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), following the victory of opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica in Presidential elections held on 24 September 2000, this briefing paper sets forth a comprehensive list of sanctions currently in place against the FRY and the current status of FRY participation and/or membership in international organisations.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Yugoslavia
74. Yugoslavia's Presidential Elections: The Serbian People's Moment of Truth
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Since the International Crisis Group's (ICG's) last paper addressing the Serbian political scene, the situation on the ground inside Serbia has changed dramatically. Once Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic announced, on 27 July 2000, the 24 September date for simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and municipal elections in Serbia, the previously fractious opposition rapidly and unexpectedly united behind the nomination of Vojislav Kostunica, a constitutional lawyer and self-styled democratic nationalist with no ties to the regime or the West.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
75. Current Legal Status of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and of Serbia and Montenegro
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The deteriorating relationship between Montenegro and Belgrade has raised the question of whether the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, with its two constituent republics of Serbia and Montenegro, in fact continues to exist. The answer to this question has immediate relevance to the forthcoming federal elections scheduled for 24 September 2000, and in particular the issues of: whether the government of Montenegro can legitimately boycott those elections, in the sense of refusing to co-operate in their physical conduct and encouraging Montenegrins not to vote; and whether the federal government is entitled to take any, and if so what, action in response to the Montenegrin government so deciding. This legal briefing paper seeks, in this context, to address the following questions: What precedents were set by the decisions of the European Community (EC) Arbitration Commission concerning the status of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) and its Republics that might be relevant to an assessment of the current legal status of the FRY? What actions have been taken by the FRY federal government, the Republic of Montenegro, the Republic of Serbia, or the international community that may affect the status of the FRY and the legitimacy of its government and federal institutions? What is the current status of the FRY, its government and federal institutions, and how does this affect Montenegro's obligation to participate in the 24 September 2000 federal elections?
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro
76. Macedonian Government Expects Setback in Local Elections
- Publication Date:
- 09-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Macedonian electorate will drag itself wearily to the polls on 10 September 2000. This year's local elections follow the 1999 presidential election, 1998 parliamentary elections, and 1996 local elections. The chronic campaign cycle, seemingly endless political sloganeering, and constant criticism from international observers have created fatigue among the electorate. As in 1996, the local elections will have hardly anything to do with running municipal governments, and everything to do with validating the current national government. Early polls indicate most voters will use the opportunity to voice their frustration against the ruling coalition.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Macedonia
77. Kosovo Report Card
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Over its first 15 months the international mission in Kosovo has a number of accomplishments to its credit. These include negotiating an agreement with the Kosovo Liberation army (KLA) to disband and to publicly commit to hand over its weapons - although few believe the KLA's disarmament has been complete; heading off, in the early months after the war, an incipient conflict between backers of the KLA and the other major political force in Kosovo, Ibrahim Rugova's Democratic League of Kosovo(LDK); creating the framework of an administrative structure for Kosovo, and mobilising humanitarian assistance that helped feed and get more than one million Kosovo refugees into homes or temporary shelters before the first post-war winter.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
78. Albania's Local Elections: A Test of Stability and Democracy
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Local elections in Albania on 1 October 2000 will mark the first test of popular support for the ruling Socialist-led coalition since it came to power following the violent uprising in 1997. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), whose Office of Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) will be leading the monitoring effort, deems these elections to be of critical importance. Albania's electoral process has traditionally been bedevilled by the same handicaps encountered in most other institutional areas: namely, inadequate legislation, capacity deficiencies, politicisation of the process, and lack of all round political support. It is vitally important for Albania's democracy and international reputation that this year's elections do not repeat the mistakes of the recent past.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
79. Serbia: The Milosevic Regime on the Eve of September Elections
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The regime in Serbia has recovered its footing after the 1999 war with NATO and remains as hard-line as ever. Learning and gaining experience over the years has enabled the regime to “improve” its performance and become more efficient. Most analysts in Serbia agree that Milosevic will be able to stay in power indefinitely.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Serbia
80. Macedonia's Ethnic Albanians: Bridging the Gulf
- Publication Date:
- 08-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Ten Years after independence, Macedonia's two largest ethnic groups continue to lead very separate and distinct lives. The uneasy co-existence between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians has only just withstood the violent breakup of Yugoslavia and the continuing instability in Kosovo. Valid concerns about Macedonia's security are too often being used to justify postponing hard decisions about internal problems. Political leaders on both sides of the ethnic divide, while negotiating privately for piecemeal improvements, publicly cater to the more extreme nationalists in their respective parties, and positions are hardening. There is a continued reluctance to squarely confront the compromises that would legally safeguard Macedonia's multi-ethnic composition: if that reluctance is not soon overcome, Macedonia and the region face renewed instability.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania
81. Elections in Kosovo: Moving Towards Democracy?
- Publication Date:
- 07-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the fall of 2000, for the first time of their history, the people of Kosovo are being promised the opportunity to participate in democratic, internationally supervised local elections. The elections offer the people of Kosovo the opportunity to demonstrate their commitment to democracy. They also present the international mission in Kosovo with a test of its resolve to overcome the political and practical problems associated with holding elections in a territory still suffering from the physical and the political scars of war.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Human Rights, International Cooperation, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Kosovo
82. Reality Demands: Documenting Violations of International Humanitarian Law in Kosovo 1999
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- This report is the product of seven months of field research conducted by teams of local and international personnel in Kosovo and Albania in 1999, as part of the International Crisis Group's Humanitarian Law Documentation Project. The Project was conceived in the spring of 1999, as violence and destruction in Kosovo forced hundreds of thousands of men, women and children from their homes, many seeking shelter in neighbouring Albania and The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (hereafter referred to as Macedonia).The purpose of the Project was to support the efforts of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (“the Tribunal”or “the ICTY”) to investigate serious violations of international humanitarian law committed in Kosovo and bring to justice persons responsible for such crimes.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, Macedonia, and Albania
83. Serbia's Grain Trade: Milosevic's Hidden Cash Crop
- Publication Date:
- 06-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nearly a year after NATO defeated Serbia in the war over Kosovo, the international community appears uncertain about how to remove Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic from power.
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
84. Kosovo's Linchpin: Overcoming Division In Mitrovica
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Mitrovica has become the linchpin of Kosovo's future united status. The stakes are high. If the international community cannot re-establish Mitrovica as a single city, efforts to preserve a united Kosovo will also fail.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Mitrovica
85. Bosnia's refugee logjam breaks: is the international community ready?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After four and a half year of concerted efforts by the international community, significant numbers of minority refugees are returning spontaneously to areas of Bosnia controlled by heretofore hostile ethnic majorities. This provides an opportunity to reverse wartime ethnic cleansing and make substantial progress toward achieving a core goal of the international community and the Dayton Peace Agreement. The requirement for modestly increased reconstruction and security assistance to facilitate this process, however, poses a challenge for governments and international aid and security organisations, many of which are seeking to wind down their Bosnia commitments. Absent such international community support and increased Bosnian government co-operation, the ceiling for returns may be low, and could jeopardise the success of current and future return efforts.
- Topic:
- Migration and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia and Eastern Europe
86. Serbia's Embattled Opposition
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The recent crackdown by the Belgrade regime on Serbia's independent media and political activists suggests that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic is more vulnerable than it would appear. Since the Kosovo war ended, Milosevic has proven unable to expand his support base and must struggle with diminishing resources to keep restive constituencies intact. Despite its recognised weakness, the Serbian opposition is capable under certain conditions of removing Milosevic from power and offering better governance. The message of numerous public opinion polls over the past eight moths is that there is an anti-Milosvic majority in Serbia, but that the opposition must work together in coalitions to exploit it.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia
87. Montenegro's Local Elections: Testing the National Temperature (Background Briefing)
- Publication Date:
- 05-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Local elections are to be held in Podgorica and Herceg-Novi, two of Montenegro's 21 municipalities, on 11 June 2000. Their significance is wider than the simple question of who governs the two local authorities, for these will be the first elections in Montenegro since the victory of the "For a Better Life" coalition (DZB) under president Milo Djukanovic in general elections in May 1998. For this reason the results will be widely interpreted as a comment on the performance of Djukanovic so far, and a barometer of the political mood in the republic as a whole.
- Topic:
- Government and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, and Montenegro
88. Montenegro's Socialist People's Party: A Loyal Opposition?
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The assertion of the primacy of Serbian rights over all other peoples by Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has driven nearly every nationality of the former Yugoslavia toward the Republic's exits. Even Montenegro, once Serbia's closest political and military ally, has not been immune from the turmoil that Slobodan Milosevic has created and has opted to distance itself from Belgrade's controlling influence.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Non-Governmental Organization, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro
89. Bosnia's Municipal Elections 2000: Winners and Losers
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The international community can draw a degree of comfort from the results of Bosnia's 8 April 2000 municipal elections. Overall, the voting was free of violence and more freeand fair than any previous election held in Bosnia. Nationalism may not be on the run yet—witness the strength of indicted Bosnian Serb war criminal Radovan Karadzic's Serbian Democratic Party (SDS)—but moderate leaders are making inroads and increasing numbers of voters seem to be paying attention to their messages.
- Topic:
- Government, Nationalism, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Serbia
90. Reunifying Mostar: Opportunities for Progress
- Publication Date:
- 04-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Reunification of Mostar is key to the reintegration of separatist Herzegovinian Bosnian Croats into Bosnia. After years of fruitless post-Dayton efforts to wean the Bosnian Croats from Zagreb and reorient them toward a constructive role in Bosnia, the international community at long last has the capability to achieve this goal. The success of the democratic forces in Croatia in the January-February elections there has brought reliable partners to power with whom the international community can work in Bosnia. Policy initiatives in Herzegovina will not require new resources and, if achieved, can lead to a reduction in the international profile in Bosnia. Failure to act on these opportunities will cripple the Bosnian peace effort and weaken the new government in Croatia. These issues present serious policy challenges.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, and Croatia
91. Montenegro: In the Shadow of the Volcano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Montenegro has been a crisis-in-waiting for two years now, with Belgrade opposing efforts by a reform-minded government under President Milo Djukanovic to distance itself ever further from its federal partner Serbia. Federal President Slobodan Milosevic has steadily escalated the pressure against Djukanovic, probing the extent of NATO support for Montenegro and pushing the Montenegrins toward a misstep that might undermine their international backing. Each of the three possible policy-paths facing the Montenegro government, however, is unappealing in its own way:Going ahead with a referendum on independence for Montenegro would risk radicalising a population still peacefully divided over the issue, and would offer maximum provocation to Belgrade, which retains a powerful military presence in Montenegro. Maintaining the status quo may offer a better chance of avoiding open confrontation with Belgrade, but it leaves Montenegro in a limbo. Its friends are not offering all the help they could, on the grounds that it is not a sovereign state; but prospects for selfgenerated income through inward investment or revival of the tourist industry are still hostage to international risk perceptions. Achieving rapprochement with the Serbian government would be possible if Milosevic went. But Montenegro cannot afford to leave its future in the unsure hands of the present Serbian opposition. And as the atmosphere in Serbia steadily worsens, political and public opinion in Montenegro appears to grow ever less willing to compromise.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, NATO, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Montenegro
92. What Happened to the KLA?
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The end of the war over Kosovo brought the transformation of the guerrilla army that started it. The Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA - or UÇK in the Albanian acronym) has been formally demilitarised, but in various manifestations it remains a powerful and active element in almost every area of Kosovo life. Some welcome its continued influence; others fear it; many are concerned about it.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania
93. Albania: State of the Nation
- Publication Date:
- 03-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- During the spring of 1999, more than 450,000 Kosovo Albanian refugees flooded into Albania, many of them forcibly deported by Serb forces in Kosovo. Despite Albania's acute poverty, many Albanians opened their homes to provide shelter to the incoming refugees and the government spared no effort, organising humanitarian relief and putting the entire country at the disposal of NATO. As a result, in the eyes of its people, Albania has secured its position as the spiritual motherland of all ethnic Albanians, and as such expects to play a prominent role in future pan-Albanian aspirations.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Politics, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Albania
94. Denied Justice: Individuals Lost in a Legal Maze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Thousands of people try to find their way daily through an immensely complicated labyrinth established by the three separate and very often conflicting legal systems in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). Evidence presented in this report, the third in the ICG legal project series, proves that unexplained time delays, dubious application of law and blatant ethnic discrimination contribute greatly to the ad hoc nature of Bosnian justice.
- Topic:
- Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
95. Albanians in Serbian Prisons: Kosovo's Unfinished Business
- Publication Date:
- 01-2000
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the immense challenges facing the international community in its effort to secure and rebuild Kosovo, one critical outstanding matter that has received very little attention is the ongoing detention in Serbian prisons of several thousand Kosovar Albanians. Arrested by Serbian forces in the course of the Kosovo conflict, these prisoners were hastily transferred to Serbian jails and penitentiaries in the wake of the Kumanovo military-technical agreement, which ended the NATO air campaign and established a timetable for the withdrawal from Kosovo of all Serb forces.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Ethnic Conflict, Human Rights, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Albania
96. The Albanian Aromanians' Awakening: Identity Politics and Conflicts in Post-Communist Albania
- Author:
- Stephanie Schwandner-Sievers
- Publication Date:
- 03-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- European Centre for Minority Issues
- Abstract:
- Today, many thousands of Aromanians (also known as "Vlachs") live quite compactly in Northern Greece, Macedonia (FYROM) and southern Albania; and there are still traces of Vlach-Aromanian and Aromanian populations in Bulgaria, Serbia, Croatia and Romania. In Albania, they were recently estimated at about 200,000 by the English scholar Tom Winnifrith. In Albanian communist times, Aromanians were not recognised as a separate minority group, officially considered to be almost completely assimilated. However, in the early post-communist transition period, a vivid Aromanian ethnic movement emerged in Albania and it became part of a recent global Balkan Aromanian initiative. The Albanian Aromanians' new emphasis of their ethnicity can be seen as a pragmatic strategy of adjustment to successes and failures in the Albanian political transition and to globalisation. It is exactly the re-vitalisation of the conflict between followers of a pro-Greek and a pro-Romanian Aromanian identification that serves to broaden the scope of options for potential exploitation.
- Topic:
- Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe and Albania
97. Ukraine: Challenges of the Continuing Transition
- Publication Date:
- 08-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- The views expressed are those of individuals and do not represent official US intelligence or policy positions. The NIC routinely sponsors such unclassified conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
98. Iraq's Transition: On a Knife Edge
- Publication Date:
- 09-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The situation in Iraq is more precarious than at any time since the April 2003 ouster of the Baathist regime, largely reflecting the Coalition's inability to establish a legitimate and representative political transition process. The broad plan sketched out by UN Special Adviser Lakhdar Brahimi, the apparent willingness of the U.S. to delegate at least some political responsibility to the UN and the decision to loosen the de-Baathification decree are all steps in the right direction. But critical questions remain both unanswered and, in some cases, unasked.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Eastern Europe, and United Nations
99. Rule of Law in Public Administration: Confusion and Discrimination in a Post-Communist Bureaucracy
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- To date, little attention has been paid to the role public administration plays in enforcing or violating the human rights and civil liberties of Bosnia and Herzegovina's citizens. Instead, much effort is concentrated on reforming the court system. Yet, the justice system in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) comprises far more than the court system. It also consists of "administrative justice," where small-scale rulings by seemingly minor municipal and cantonal officials in a variety of public administrative organs, exercise a huge influence on the lives and legal rights of ordinary citizens. Many of these rulings prevent citizens from exercising their legal rights and gaining access to due process of law.</p
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Bosnia, Herzegovina, and Eastern Europe
100. Trepca: Making Sense of the Labyrinth
- Publication Date:
- 12-1999
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The enterprise known as Trepca is a sprawling conglomerate of some 40 mines and factories, located mostly in Kosovo but also in other locations in Serbia and Montenegro. Its activities include chemical processing and production of goods as varied as batteries and paint. But the heart of its operations, and the source of most of its raw material, is the vast mining complex to the east of Mitrovicë/a in the north of Kosovo, famous since Roman times. This report examines the current position of the mines, together with the associated smelting complex at nearby Zvecan.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, and Montenegro
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