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1. A Growth Diagnostic of Kazakhstan

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Nikita Taniparti, Clement Brenot, Douglas Barrios, and Can Soylu
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This Growth Diagnostic Report was generated as part of a research engagement between the Growth Lab at Harvard University and the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) between June 2021 and December 2022. The purpose of the engagement was to formulate evidence-based policy options to address critical issues facing the economy of Kazakhstan through innovative frameworks such as growth diagnostics and economic complexity. This report is accompanied by the Economic Complexity Report that applies findings from this report on economy-wide challenges to growth and diversification in order to formulate attractive and feasible opportunities for diversification. Kazakhstan faces multifaceted challenges to sustainable and inclusive growth: macroeconomic uncertainty, an uneven economic playing field, and difficulties in acquiring productive capabilities, agglomerating them locally, and accessing export markets. Underlying Kazakhstan’s transformational growth in the last two decades—during which real GDP per capita multiplied by 2.5x—are two periods that underscore how Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory has been correlated with oil and gas dynamics. The early and mid-2000s characterized by the global commodity supercycle led to an expansion of the economy upwards of 8% annually, with a mild slowdown during the global financial crisis. In 2014, Kazakhstan’s growth slowed with the collapse of commodity prices, and alternative engines of growth have not been strong enough to fend against volatility since. These trends, along with growing uncertainty in the long-run demand of oil and gas, continue to highlight the limitations of relying on natural resources to drive development. As in the experience of other major oil producers, diversification of Kazakhstan’s non-oil economy is a critical pathway to drive a new era of sustainable and inclusive growth and mitigate the impacts of commodity price shocks on the country’s economy. Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory demonstrates that the country has enough oil to suffer symptoms of Dutch disease, but not enough to position it as a reliable engine of growth in the future. Development of non-oil activities has been a policy objective of the government of Kazakhstan for some time, but previous efforts for target sectors have failed to generate sufficient exports and investments to produce alternative engines of growth. This report characterizes the relationship between growth, industrial policy, and the constraints to diversification in Kazakhstan. It utilizes the growth diagnostics framework to understand why efforts to diversify into non-oil tradables has been challenging. The report proposes a growth syndrome to explain the constraints preventing Kazakhstan from achieving productive diversification and sustainable growth. This report is organized in six sections, including a brief introduction. Section 2 provides an overview of the methodological approach to the Growth Diagnostics analysis. Section 3 describes Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory and macroeconomic performance, as well as the motivations behind pursuing a diversification strategy to strengthen the non-oil economy. Section 4 summarizes three features of the country that manifest in a set of economy-wide constraints to growth and diversification. Section 5 analyzes each of the identified constraints in detail, describing their dynamics and breaking down the aspects that appear to be binding. Section 6 concludes by suggesting potential policy guidelines towards alleviation of the identified constraints.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Diversification, Sustainability, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

2. The Economic Complexity of Kazakhstan: A Roadmap for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Douglas Barrios, Clement Brenot, Nikita Taniparti, Eric Protzer, and Sophia Henn
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Since the end of the 1990s, Kazakhstan has relied on oil and gas as the main drivers of economic growth. While this has led to rapid development of the country, especially during years of high oil prices, it has also subjected the economy to more severe downturns during oil shocks, bouts of currency overvaluation, and procyclicality in growth and public spending. Stronger economic diversification has the potential to drive a new era of sustainable growth by supporting new sources of value added and export revenue, creating new and better jobs, and making the economy more resistant to fluctuations in oil dynamics. However, repeated efforts to stimulate alternative, non-oil engines of growth have so far been inconclusive. This report introduces a new framework to identify opportunities for economic diversification in Kazakhstan. This framework attempts to improve upon previous methods, notably by building country and region-specific challenges to the development of the non-oil economy directly into the framework to identify feasible and attractive opportunities. These challenges are presented in detail in the Growth Diagnostic of Kazakhstan and are summarized along three high-level constraints: (i) an uneven economic playing field dominated by government-related public and private-entities; (ii) difficulties in acquiring productive capabilities, agglomerating them locally, and accessing export markets; and (iii) ongoing macroeconomic factors lowering external competitiveness lower and making the economy less stable. Our approach applies the economic complexity paradigm to identify what specific products and industries are most feasible for diversification, based on the existing productive capabilities demonstrated in the economy. We examine Kazakhstan's economic complexity at the national but also subnational levels, highlighting the heterogeneity of export baskets across regions that makes an analysis of opportunities at the subnational level essential.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Economic Complexity, Sustainability, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

3. How China’s Foreign Aid Fosters Social Bonds With Central Asian Ruling Elites

Author:
Nargis Kassenova
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
China has become a global power, but there is too little debate about how this has happened and what it means. Many argue that China exports its developmental model and imposes it on other countries. But Chinese players also extend their influence by working through local actors and institutions while adapting and assimilating local and traditional forms, norms, and practices. With a generous multiyear grant from the Ford Foundation, Carnegie has launched an innovative body of research on Chinese engagement strategies in seven regions of the world—Africa, Central Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, the Pacific, South Asia, and Southeast Asia. Through a mix of research and strategic convening, this project explores these complex dynamics, including the ways Chinese firms are adapting to local labor laws in Latin America, Chinese banks and funds are exploring traditional Islamic financial and credit products in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and Chinese actors are helping local workers upgrade their skills in Central Asia. These adaptive Chinese strategies that accommodate and work within local realities are mostly ignored by Western policymakers in particular. Ultimately, the project aims to significantly broaden understanding and debate about China’s role in the world and to generate innovative policy ideas. These could enable local players to better channel Chinese energies to support their societies and economies; provide lessons for Western engagement around the world, especially in developing countries; help China’s own policy community learn from the diversity of Chinese experience; and potentially reduce frictions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, and Elites
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, and Asia

4. The Second Phase of the EU Southern Gas Corridor: Which role for Azerbaijan?

Author:
Marika Karagianni
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
The operation of the Southern Gas Corridor marks the first attempt of the EU to diversify its pipeline gas supplies and routes beyond Russia. The 2nd Phase of the Corridor, which involves the operation of several gas interconnectors in South Eastern Europe, is being promoted, while the EU is looking for additional supply sources, namely LNG. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the intense energy crisis in Europe, has reinforced these trends. Field development in Azerbaijan and future prospects for LNG exports, primarily from the US, are discussed in this article as realistic options for alternative supply sources for Europe.
Topic:
Development, European Union, Gas, Exports, and Pipeline
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, and Azerbaijan

5. COVID-19 and the state: Nicaragua case study

Author:
Mateo C. Jarquín
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Unlike Latin American peers, and contrary to World Health Organization recommendations, Nicaragua eschewed lockdowns and other common strategies to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Analysts have since demonstrated how Nicaraguan authorities dramatically under-reported the number of deaths and infections that resulted (though a dearth of data complicates cross-country comparisons). Questions remain about the government’s decision to pursue a hands-off strategy in the first place. This paper argues that rather than optimizing for fewer cases and deaths, the authoritarian government of President Daniel Ortega instead attuned its pandemic response to other, political and economic, variables. In the context of a pre-existing sociopolitical crisis that threatened the regime’s legitimacy and territorial control, policy-makers were primarily interested in safeguarding macroeconomic indicators and fomenting a sense of normalcy among the populace. For related reasons, they restricted public health information and criminalized citizen-led public health efforts. In the Nicaraguan case, government and leadership mattered more than state capacity in determining the public health response.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Leadership, State, COVID-19, and Daniel Ortega
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Nicaragua

6. The “New Uzbekistan”: Turkey’s New Partner in the Pan-Turkist Organization of Turkic States

Author:
Hay Eytan Cohan Yanaroack
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Tashkent’s increasingly critical approach toward Russia and its deepening role in the Organization of Turkic States has positioned the country as Ankara’s most important bridgehead in Central Asia.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Turkey

7. Turkish-Russian Relations: A Puzzle that Shakes the Middle East

Author:
Remi Daniel
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Turkeyscope, Remi Daniel discusses several contemporary trends in the Russian-Turkish relationship. The dynamics of competition and cooperation between these two states affect the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia and North Africa in profound ways.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Russia, Central Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa

8. The Central Asian Perspective on Turkey: Does Family Come First?

Author:
Oğul Tuna
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In our latest issue of Turkeyscope, Oğul Tuna discusses the changing role of Turkey in Central Asia in recent years. This essay argues that ethnolinguistic links have helped improve relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but each Central Asian state has its own calculations that factor into separate diplomatic, cultural, and defense deals with Turkey.
Topic:
International Relations, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Culture, Ethnicity, and Language
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Turkey

9. Porosity of Tajik-Afghan Border Making Beijing’s Involvement in Region More Ominous

Author:
Paul A. Goble
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
In most parts of the world, the lines on maps separating countries are true borders. That is, they are controlled by the governments on one or both sides. But in some places, they remain the quasi-open frontiers they were in the past or have reemerged as such because of recent political changes; those borders are highly porous zones, where people and goods can move more or less freely in one or both directions without much regard to the powers that be. Such situations invite outside involvement that can ramp up quickly and disturb preexisting international arrangements. One poignant example is the adjoining border area shared by Tajikistan and Afghanistan. In recent years, that frontier has attracted attention because of the danger that Islamist militants from Afghanistan could cross it to move north into Tajikistan and beyond. But another danger is emerging: China is establishing increasing control over Tajikistan and, thus, is putting itself in a position to project power southward from Tajikistan into Afghanistan. If Beijing does so, that could fundamentally change the security situation and geopolitical balance in Central and South Asia as a whole.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, and Borders
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, China, South Asia, Central Asia, Asia, and Tajikistan

10. Growing Azerbaijani–Central Asian Ties Likely to Trigger Conflicts With Russia and Iran

Author:
Paul A. Goble
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Azerbaijan’s victory in the Second Karabakh War (September 29–November 9) has had a transformative effect on the country. It not only changed the attitudes of its population, whose members now feel themselves to be heroes rather than victims (see EDM, January 21), but also bolstered the diplomatic weight and possibilities of the Azerbaijani government in its dealings with other regional states. In prosecuting a triumphant war against Yerevan, Baku demonstrated its own ability to act. But just as importantly, Azerbaijan has shown to peoples and governments in the Caucasus and Central Asia that it is a force to be reckoned with, in part thanks to its growing links with Turkey. Moreover, that alliance makes possible an appealing path to the outside world for all who join it. That reality is causing countries east of the Caspian to look westward to and through Azerbaijan in their economic planning and political calculations. At the same time, however, these developments are generating concerns in Moscow and Tehran, which oppose east-west trade routes that bypass their countries’ territories and instead favor north-south corridors linking Russia and Iran together. As a result, Azerbaijan’s recent successes in expanding links with Central Asia set the stage for new conflicts between Azerbaijan and its Turkic partners, on the one hand, and Russia and Iran, which have far more significant naval assets in the Caspian, on the other (see EDM, November 27, 2018 and February 20, 2020; Casp-geo.ru, December 24, 2019; Chinalogist.ru, November 21, 2019).
Topic:
Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Trade
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Central Asia, Middle East, and Azerbaijan

11. The political economy of Kazakhstan. A case of good economics, bad politics?

Author:
Simon Commander
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Can autocracies and their associated institutions successfully implement economic policies that promote growth and investment? Can ‘good economics’ somehow offset the effects of ‘bad’ politics? Kazakhstan is a case where an autocratic regime has actively projected market-friendly policies and attracted significant amounts of incoming investment. These policies are to some extent reflected in the country’s governance ratings, although there has been a significant amount of investment disputes that question the attachment to the rule of law. Moreover, the political regime remains strongly personalised around the founder President, his family and associates. This is reflected in the economics of the autocracy whereby a large public sector and a set of privately held businesses coexist to mutual benefit. The latter have been formed around a very small number of highly connected individuals whose initial accumulation of assets allows them also to act as necessary gatekeepers for entrants. Competition as a result remains limited in both economic and political domains. Yet, uncertainties over the future leadership, along with latent rivalry over access to resources and markets, make the political equilibrium quite fragile. In short, ‘bad’ politics both squeezes the space for, and distorts the benefits from, ‘good’ economics.
Topic:
Political Economy, Politics, Economic Growth, Investment, and Autocracy
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

12. How Central Asians Pushed Chinese Firms to Localize

Author:
Dirk Van Der Kley and Niva Yau
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
There has been a sea change in China’s economic involvement in Central Asia. Large-scale transport and electricity projects funded by Chinese government loans have dried up. Hydrocarbon exports to China continue, but they are not the focus of most new projects. Instead, there are a growing number of industrial projects that seek to make value-added products that can be exported. These projects are increasingly staffed by Central Asians who receive technical training from Chinese firms. This change has been primarily driven by Central Asian states. The region’s governments have long pushed for industrial capacity building, including the upskilling of local workers. In addition, debt concerns in Kyrgyzstan in particular have made Chinese loans less attractive and less prevalent. This trend has coincided with Chinese policy banks’ embrace of more conservative lending policies globally for infrastructure projects. Chinese firms have begun adapting to these demands. They have steadily increased their proportions of local hires by training Central Asian workers both onsite and in China to address skills shortages. They have tried to engage local communities to earn a social license for their overseas operations. The Chinese government is now following suit. It is developing more formal cooperation agreements on industrialization and upskilling in addition to pre-existing, ad-hoc arrangements by individual companies. So far, the outcomes have been mixed. Many Chinese firms in Central Asia are employing more locals. Yet the more closely integrated these Chinese firms become with the region’s economies, the more they must deal with, or be co-opted by, localized corruption and political fights. Newly available polling data shows that public sentiments toward China are becoming more negative. Chinese companies are flexibly adapting to this environment of heightened expectations in a variety of ways. The views that outside observers in Washington and elsewhere harbor of China’s infrastructure investments through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia are outdated and do not reflect how much Chinese firms and eventually the Chinese government have adapted to meet local needs. Any Western-proposed alternative to the BRI needs to take these considerations into account.
Topic:
Economics, Business, Industry, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, and Asia

13. Uzbekistan’s new Central Asia policy: The economic rationale and political implications of good neighbourliness

Author:
Kristiina Silvan
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Under the leadership of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan has embarked on a moderate reform programme that aims to achieve socio-economic growth without undoing the country’s authoritarian political system. The programme has implications beyond Uzbekistan’s borders because it has changed the way Uzbekistani foreign policy is formulated and implemented. Uzbekistan’s former isolationist stance has shifted to a foreign policy opening, which is most noticeable in the improvement of its relations with its neighbours. This Working Paper analyzes “good neighbourliness”, the key concept of Uzbekistan’s new Central Asia policy. It details the amendment of Uzbekistan’s bilateral relations with its neighbours and points to the positive reception of Uzbekistan’s new regional policy in Russia, China, and the West. The paper argues that while “good neighbourliness” is a pragmatic strategy rooted in economic rationality, the policy’s regional implications are substantial. It is laying the necessary foundation for sustainable Central Asian co-operation from within in a way that is acceptable to the Central Asian states and big non-regional actors alike.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Authoritarianism, Reform, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan

14. Turkmenistan, Now With Soviet-Style Deficits, on Brink of Explosion

Author:
Paul A. Goble
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Jamestown Foundation
Abstract:
Turkmenistan, far and away the most closed country in the former Soviet space, seldom receives much attention except as the butt of dismissive jokes or, more recently, when its leaders tried to deny that COVID-19 is present in their country even as they took measures intended to hinder its spread (see EDM, July 21). But multiple reports over the last few days suggest Turkmenistan is fast descending into an economic crisis that makes its continued socio-political stability ever less likely. Moreover, this Central Asian country now has an opposition based abroad that is increasingly capable of providing leadership to local Turkmenistanis infuriated by the domestic situation they find themselves in as a result of the authorities’ oppressive policies.
Topic:
Government, Crisis Management, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Turkmenistan

15. Managed leadership succession in Kazakhstan: A model for gradual departure?

Author:
Kristiina Silvan
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In March 2019, Kazakhstan’s authoritarian leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev, stepped down after three decades of rule and yielded power to his nominated successor, Kassym-Zhomart Tokayev. However, Nazarbayev has paradoxically remained the most powerful political actor in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan’s model of gradual leadership succession could serve as an example to authoritarian states around the world, but it is particularly significant in the post-Soviet context. Institutional and constitutional changes that took place in the 1990s were aimed at concentrating power in the presidency. However, modifications initiated by Nazarbayev in the 2000s and 2010s sought to weaken the Kazakh presidency while strengthening power vested in himself personally, in order to ensure the continuation of a political status quo and his family’s well-being after the transfer of power. Despite the careful preparation and Tokayev’s relatively smooth ascension to power, it is still too early to evaluate the success of the transfer due to the vast powers retained by Nazarbayev. The transition of power in Kazakhstan remains an ongoing process and, as such, unpredictable.
Topic:
Power Politics, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Transition
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

16. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and Its Energy-Security Dimensions

Author:
Frank Umbach
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is officially neither a Chinese “Marshall Plan” nor a geopolitical master strategy. At present, it involves 84 countries, rising from 65 countries in 2015, and 15 Chinese provinces. Over the last year, the number of countries being concerned or ambivalent about China’s motivations and strategic objectives behind the BRI have increased. Despite officially supporting China’s BRI, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned last April, that China is supporting unneeded and unsustainable projects in many countries, leading to heavy and unpayable debt burdens. In ASEAN, Chinese investments are welcomed but there are also misgivings about the BRI’s strategic objectives which may constrain ASEAN’s policy options. As China is presently and will remain the single most influential country in global energy markets in the next decades, it is not surprising that its infrastructure plans of building railways, highways and ports are often interlinked with China’s energy and raw materials projects abroad and its domestic energy policies. This paper analyses the energy dimensions of the BRI and its strategic implications for its wider economic, foreign and security policies in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Energy Policy, Military Strategy, ASEAN, and IMF
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Asia, and Southeast Asia

17. Chinese, Japanese, and Korean Inroads into Central Asia: Comparative Analysis of the Economic Cooperation Roadmaps for Uzbekistan

Author:
Timur Dadabaev
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
China, Japan, and South Korea have regarded Central Asia as a new Asian frontier in their foreign policies since the collapse of the Soviet Union. With time, their policies evolved into regionbuilding initiatives exemplified by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Belt and Road Initiative, Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue Forum, and Korea-Central Asia Cooperation Forum. This paper raises the following research questions: What are the areas of interest for China, Japan, and Korea in their relations with Central Asian states and Uzbekistan in particular? What are the patterns of agenda setting in establishing intergovernmental cooperation? What are the particular projects that these states initiate? What are the objectives of projects initiated within these areas of interest? How competitive or complementary are these projects of China, Japan, and Korea? Throughout, Chinese, Japanese, and Korean “Silk Road” roadmaps with Uzbekistan are discussed to highlight their similarities and differences.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economy, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Central Asia, Asia, South Korea, and Uzbekistan

18. The Brain drain from Russia: The Kremlinʼs double-edged sword

Author:
Jussi Lassila
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The accelerated brain drain from Russia concretizes the failures of the Kremlinʼs authoritarian modernization and deepens the country’s longer-term problems. At the same time, the brain drain is reducing the regimeʼs political pressures to make the country more attractive to educated and internationally oriented citizens.
Topic:
Education, Globalization, Authoritarianism, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Central Asia, and Asia

19. A Study on the Dynamics of Foreign Trade and the Issues of Regional Economic Integration in Central Asia

Author:
Kodirjon Maxamadaminovich Umarkulov
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP)
Abstract:
At the current stage of globalization, Central Asia (CA) is becoming a focal point for the political and economic interests of global forces because of its rich natural resources and critical strategic position. From this point of view, the CA countries need to form a joint development strategy for solving regional problems and a strong mechanism for countering the main political and economic conflicts in the region. At the same time, the countries of the region need to choose the path of joint development in order to increase the efficiency of their internal capacities and resources, adapt the domestic social and economic infrastructure to modern requirements and improve the living standards of the population. This is directly related to the progress of regional economic integration in CA. Through this integration, the economies of the countries in the region could complement each other and ensure a high level of development in mutual trade and industrial development. However, there are some obstacles and problems hindering the development of economic integration in the region. Most particularly, the weak infrastructure in the region, its economic-geographical isolation from world markets, administrative barriers and political instability hinder trade between the countries of CA. From this point of view, this study focuses on the problems of general and cross-border trade in CA countries, and the opportunities for economic integration in the region.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Regional Integration, Economic Policy, and Exports
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Asia

20. Cooperation Between Kazakhstan and the United States in Military Professionalization Programs

Author:
Sebastian Engles
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The U.S. should remain committed to Central Asian security cooperation, but must carefully evaluate each program for merit and value added to U.S. security goals in the region. Military professionalization of the Kazakh armed forces will have the most significant impact towards accomplishing these goals and help Kazakhstan attain a more capable military. U.S. security cooperation efforts in assisting Kazakhstan to improve non-commissioned officer development serve as an excellent example of effective professionalization and a way to further our strategic relationships with non-NATO countries. Training programs that professionalize the Kazakh military can offer a cost-effective way for the United States to further a lasting partnership with Central Asia’s most stable country.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Imperialism, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, and Asia

21. Kazakhstan: Presidential Succession and Political Instability in a Neopatrimonial State / Kazajstán: sucesión presidencial e inestabilidad política en un Estado neopatrimonial

Author:
Rubén Ruiz Ramas
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The refusal of Nursultan Nazarbayev, both to designate his future successor and to strengthen the institutions that can take responsibility for this task, fuel the potential for conflict attached to the future context of succession. The horizon of the transfer of power concerns Nazarbayev, who in July 2018 reaches 78 years old. The sources of concern are related not only to Nazarbayev’s family safety but also to the risk of confrontation among the elite networks and their social, ethnic and regional power basis. A kind of political instability vulnerable to escalation to major threatens to the national and even regional security. On the one hand, this article aims to analyse the structural vulnerability of Kazakhstan to a context of presidential succession product of its nature as an authoritarian regime and a neopatrimonial state. On the other hand, the paper also tackles the preparation of that context by the authorities and the options available to deal with the transfer of power. To this end, the paper begins with an analysis of the neopatrimonial state heterogeneity in Central Asia, followed by a section focused on the specific nature of the authoritarianism and neopatrimonialism in Kazakhstan. Finally, it elaborates the Kazakh context of succession, and the several options of transfer of power and the likely actors involved in them are examined.
Topic:
Politics, Authoritarianism, and Political stability
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Kazakhstan

22. Social Accountability in Tajikistan: Enchancing Trust Between Communities and Water Service Providers

Author:
Oxfam Publishing
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Tajikistan was one of the first countries that signed up for the Global Partnership for Social Accountability (GPSA). Oxfam’s strategy on social accountability in the country focuses in three aspects: constructive engagement, enhancing trust through the Community Advisory Boards (CABs), and promoting women’s engagement. The programme has generated strong commitment from the government, communities and water services providers.
Topic:
Water, Infrastructure, Governance, Accountability, and Community
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Asia, and Tajikistan

23. Governance in Tajikistan: Evaluation of the Women Smallholder Farmer Advocacy Campaign

Author:
Clay Westrope
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
This evaluation is presented as part of the Effectiveness Review Series 2015/16, randomly selected for review under the good governance thematic area. This report documents the findings of a qualitative impact evaluation, carried out in May 2016. The evaluation used process tracing to assess the effectiveness of the GROW campaign in Tajikistan. In an effort to complement agricultural value chain programming implemented by a variety of organisations in the Khatlon region of Tajikistan, Oxfam GB (OGB) integrated aspects of its global advocacy campaign, GROW. The GROW campaign takes a multi-pronged approach to the multi-faceted issue of global food insecurity by focusing on a diversity of causes, including climate change, land reform issues, industrial farming, and private sector policies. In Tajikistan, the campaign team selected contextually relevant key issues to guide its advocacy activities, including climate change, land reform, and water availability with a focus on women smallholder farmers as the key agricultural producers. OGB did this through trainings, workshops, round tables, and highly visual events integrated with previous and currently existing programming. In Tajikistan, the GROW Campaign was implemented in a distinctive way by leveraging synergies between previous, existing, and future programming both directly and tangentially related to the main themes of the campaign. Rather than serving as a standalone campaign, GROW served as a platform from which to promote, influence, and advocate on issues through related projects being implemented on the ground.
Topic:
Agriculture, Gender Issues, Governance, Feminism, Rural, Farming, and Empowerment
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Asia, and Tajikistan

24. Central Asia: Not in Our Backyard, Not a Hot Spot, Strategically Important

Author:
Richard E. Hoagland
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Central Asia is strategically important to the West because of its neighbors, but not immediately, because it is not a “hot spot” on the world stage. Western governments are ambivalent about the region because of its poor record on human rights and governance. It presents the classic choice: ideology or realpolitik. But Western policy in Central Asia does not have to be one or the other — it can be both. Western nations can engage strongly to support humanist values in Central Asia through quiet and appropriate behind-the-scenes work with government officials who understand and have similar concerns — and they most certainly do exist and can produce results. Western governments need to engage in Central Asia precisely to ensure that it does not become a hot spot and instead becomes, over time, ever more firmly embedded in the community of responsible nations. Strategic engagement by the West is essential, and it will pay off.
Topic:
Human Rights, Human Welfare, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Central Asia

25. Are Distortions Good for Development? Structural Transformations and Cotton in Uzbekistan

Author:
Lorena Lombardozzi
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Agriculture is at the origin of all economic activities and thus obtains a notable position in growth theory. The contribution of primary sector to long-term economic development has given space to asymmetrical positions. In the current context of globalized markets and downsized states, Uzbekistan is incontestably an exceptional case-study, applying distortive measures to its economy, and to agricultural sector in particular, to actively shape its comparative advantages. With reference to the cotton sector taxation in Uzbekistan, this analysis proposes to shed light on the implications of the main theoretical arguments around distortions. It will investigate the “circular cumulative and interactive process” produced and how it is being a driver of structural transformation, to exploit economies of scale and transfer capital investments for heavy industry, concluding that distortion can actually be instrumental for development.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Rural, and Crops
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Asia, and Uzbekistan

26. Post-privatisation Corporate Performance in Poland. Evidence from Companies Privatized in 2008-2011

Author:
Barbara Błaszczyk and Wiktor Patena
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The study concerns the effects of Polish privatisation program conducted in the years 2008-2011. After drawing a broad picture of this process we investigate the performance of 59 privatised companies, and finally focus on a deeper analysis of three companies, which is the core part of our study. We test the hypotheses that privatisation increases a company's profitability, labour productivity, capital investment spending, plow-back ratio and leverage. In case studies, we additionally explore the effect of privatization on each company’s value. The outcomes concerning the larger group of companies are partly ambiguous (with four hypotheses confirmed and four rejected). Profitability has been not visibly improved, although a number of positive initiatives and improvements in performance occurred. By contrast, the three case studies showed a significant improvement of profitability and all other performance indicators observed, as well as a considerable increase of company value. Our results show that privatisation works, though its full effects need time to occur.
Topic:
Privatization, Financial Markets, Economy, Economic Growth, State, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

27. Afghan Economic Policy, Institutions and Society Since 2001

Author:
Paul Fishstein and Murtaza Edries Amiryar
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The general expectation among Afghans after the fall of the Taliban was that the state, equipped with financial resources and technical assistance from the international community, would once again take the lead in the economic sphere. Instead, Kabul adopted a market economy. The move remains controversial in some quarters. This report, derived from interviews conducted in 2015 and 2010, takes stock of the competing ideologies in Afghanistan today with respect to the economy.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and Markets
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

28. Ten Years in Afghanistan’s Pech Valley

Author:
Morgan Wesley
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The al-Qaeda presence in the Pech valley is greater now than when U.S. forces arrived in 2002, and counterterrorism efforts in the region continue. This report looks at U.S. military involvement in the Pech valley and the lessons it offers both the Afghan National Security Forces and the U.S. military. It is derived from interviews with some three hundred Americans and Afghans, including general officers, unit commanders, members of parliament, district and provincial governors, Afghan interpreters and U.S. and Afghan combat veterans.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Islam, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

29. Turkey's Evolving Migration Policies: A Mediterranean Transit Stop at the Doors of the EU

Author:
Ahmet İçduygu
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Particularly in Europe, there is a common misconception that Turkey is primarily a country of emigration (or migrant-sending country) and a source country for asylum seekers. However, reality is that Turkey has morphed into a country of immigration, and more prominently a transit country, as a result of intense migratory movements over the last two decades. This paper analyses the evolution of Turkey’s migration policies and the way in which EU-Turkey relations have affected Turkey's migration laws and practices.
Topic:
Globalization, Migration, Political Economy, Bilateral Relations, and Immigration
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Turkey
Publication Identifier:
978-88-98650-55-2
Publication Identifier Type:
ISBN

30. Geopolitics at the World's Pivot: Exploring Central Asia's Security Challenges

Author:
Jacqueline Lopour
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper introduces Central Asia’s geopolitical significance and explores several inter-related security challenges. For each security issue, this paper provides a brief overview of the issue, explains why or how it developed and looks at the issue’s significance within the broader security environment. The paper then turns to Canada’s role in Central Asia and addresses opportunities to expand engagement in the security realm.
Topic:
Security, International Security, Bilateral Relations, Governance, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Canada

31. Youth Mobilization and Political Constraints in Afghanistan

Author:
Noah Coburn and Anna Larson
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
As Afghanistan prepares for presidential elections in 2014, many young people are vocal about how the system appears to limit their meaningful participation in politics. Historically, young people in Afghanistan have challenged the status quo. However, it is possible to detect a declining trend from the early twentieth century to the present in the extent to which these challenges have been able to effect change in the political system. This trend has continued despite the technology and social media available to youth today, as the older generation of political leaders continues to monopolize the available political space and act as gatekeepers to that space.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, Youth Culture, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

32. Afghanistan: the view from Russia

Author:
Józef Lang
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
Russia's current and foreseeable policy towards Afghanistan is multi-vectored, complex and shows, at times, signs of incoherence. Russia views developments in Afghanistan as a strategic challenge and is expressing growing concern over the country's prospects for stability after the withdrawal of ISAF forces by the end of 2014. Russian decision-makers fear that a security vacuum emerging after the withdrawal could destabilise Central Asia and have a negative impact on Russia itself. At the same time, Moscow is concerned with Western military presence in the region, which it regards as interference in its neighbourhood. At tactical level, Russia also sees the situation in Afghanistan as an opportunity to secure its interests both regionally (consolidating its influence in Central Asia) and more widely (in terms of its relations with NATO).
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Russia, and Central Asia

33. Conditions for a Successful Transition in Afghanistan Post-2014

Author:
Khalid Aziz
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
There are doubts whether the exit of a majority of foreign forces from Afghanistan will help the return of peace to that country. Unlike in the case of the SU withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1988, conditions today are more dangerous, and it will be a miracle if the withdrawal is peaceful. The main reason for this is the absence of any reconciliation with the Taliban. This report identifies a minimum set of policies and measures that need to be implemented before successful multiple transitions in Afghanistan can occur. However, the overall picture is not positive, and it is not certain that peace will prevail after foreign troops leave Afghanistan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

34. The Revival of the Silk Roads (Land Connectivity) in Asia

Author:
Wai-Mun Chia and Pradumna B. Rana
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This paper argues that contrary to popular belief, in the bygone era, there was not one but two Silk Roads in Asia - the Northern and the less well-known South-western Silk Road (SSR). The SSR connected South/Central Asia with southern China and present day Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). After enjoying a rich history of around 1,600 years, the Silk Roads went into disrepair. Now, for various economic, security, and political reasons, land connectivity is once again making a comeback in Asia. These include the (i) "Go West" and the recent "New Silk Roads" policies of China; (ii) "Look East" policies of South Asia; (iii) opening of Myanmar, a node between South Asia and East Asia; and (iv) growing importance of supply-chain trade. The focus has, however, been mainly on reviving the Northern Silk Road with relatively few actions being initiated to revive the SSR. Mirroring the on-going efforts in the Greater Mekong Sub-region and the Central Asian region, this paper proposes four economic corridors for Pan-Asian connectivity that is to connect South/Central Asia with southern China and ASEAN. The paper argues that the revival of land connectivity in Asia is making Maritime Asia of the past, more continental-based. One implication is that regional institutions focusing solely on Maritime Asia, such as the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), may be losing some of their relevance vis-à-vis say the more continental-based China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The other is that the influence of the West in Asia's security may be declining relative to that of China, India, and Russia.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
South Asia, Central Asia, and Asia

35. Afghanistan Reconnected: Regional Economic Security Beyond 2014

Author:
Sarah Stern and Anna Mitri
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
With the end of the ISAF mandate, Afghanistan will enter the "de-cade of transformation" in late 2014, and assume security for and within the country. The challenges with regard to security and governance are obvious; they attract much political and public attention.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Asia

36. Losing the "Forgotten War" The U.S. Strategic Vacuum in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
President Obama has addressed the need to deal with Ukraine and the Islamic State in speeches and at the NATO Ministerial meeting Afghanistan, however, has become the forgotten war at a time when the Taliban is making steady gains, civilian casualties are rising there is still no effective Afghan government the Afghan economy is in crisis, and there still are no clear plans for any post 2014 aspect of transition.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

37. Afghanistan's Political Transition

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Ashraf Ghani was inaugurated as president of Afghanistan on 29 September, under difficult circumstances. He inherited a government that is running out of money and losing ground to a rising insurgency. His ability to confront those problems and other challenges as foreign troops withdraw will be shaped by the aftermath of the political contest that brought him to power. Forming a national unity government with his election rival Abdullah Abdullah presents opportunities to stabilise the transition, preventing further erosion of state cohesiveness. Yet, it also poses risks, particularly of factionalism within Kabul, which could undermine urgently needed reforms. Given the international role in developing the agreements that have created this new partnership, and the absence of mechanisms to resolve internal differences, the international community should serve as a guarantor of Kabul's new political order and, if necessary, mediate any serious disputes that arise.
Topic:
Corruption, Democratization, Islam, and Governance
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

38. Russia and the Caspian Sea: Projecting Power or Competing for Influence?

Author:
Tracey German
Publication Date:
08-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
This monograph examines Russia's policy toward the Caspian Sea region as Moscow attempts to counterbalance growing American involvement within what it perceives to be its zone of privileged interest, focusing on the recent expansion of the Caspian Flotilla and the rationale behind it. Moscow has sought to counterbalance the growing involvement of other actors in the region, which has led to rising tension between Russia and its southern neighbors. The primary objectives of the research are to examine Russian perceptions of threat and security in the Caspian region and assess the implications for other actors. This monograph analyzes the drivers of the increasing competition for influence, focusing on developments within the energy sector, and assess the implications of Russia's consolidation of its dominance for security and stability in the region. This issue is important because a clear understanding of Russian strategic thinking and threat perception in the Caspian Sea is vital in order to facilitate effective U.S. policy in the wider Caucasus and Central Asian region.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Power Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Central Asia

39. Resetting Pakistan's Relations with Afghanistan

Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Pakistan's relations with Afghanistan have been largely characterised by mutual mistrust and devised through a narrow security prism. While it will require considerable effort to end deep-seated animosity, both countries share close ethnic, linguistic, religious and economic ties. Longstanding Afghan migration to the territories that now compose Pakistan makes them an integral part of Pakistani society. Yet, military-devised interventionist policies, based on perceived national security interests, including support for Afghan, mainly Pashtun, proxies, have marred the relationship. The incoming Afghan President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai has offered to expand bilateral ties, providing Islamabad fresh opportunities to improve the relationship. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has responded positively, but the Pakistani military and civilian leadership's preferences toward Kabul are diverging further as Afghanistan's transition draws closer. By recalibrating relations toward economic ties and seeking solutions to the presence of millions of Afghan refugees on its soil, Pakistan could engage more constructively with its neighbour.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Economics, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, and Central Asia

40. Women and Inclusive Peace Building in Afghanistan

Author:
Babrak Osman
Publication Date:
10-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
Afghanistan is one of four Oxfam country programmes delivering the Within and Without the State (WWS) programme, funded by DFID from 2011 to 2016 under the Conflict, Humanitarian and Security Programme Partnership Arrangement (CHASE PPA). WWS is piloting innovative approaches to working with civil society to promote more accountable governance in conflict-affected and fragile contexts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Gender Issues, Peace Studies, War, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia

41. The Rahmon Phenomenon: New Challenges for Tajikistan's Long-Standing President

Author:
Alexey Malashenko and Aziz Niyazi
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Emomali Rahmon's reelection as president of Tajikistan in 2013 testifies to his regime's stability and its capacity for self-preservation. He now faces a number of complex tasks, which include undertaking economic reforms, counteracting religious smism, and resolving conflicts with neighboring countries. It is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain a high degree of stability under these conditions.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Religion, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Tajikistan

42. Women and Girls in the Afghanistan Transition

Author:
Catherine Powell
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The significant gains that Afghan women and girls have made since the 2001 U.S.-led military invasion and overthrow of the Taliban are endangered. Presidential elections and possible peace efforts with the Taliban raise uncertainties about whether the future leadership in Afghanistan will protect gender equality. Further, President Barack Obama's plan to completely draw down U.S. troops in the country by the end of 2016 risks withdrawing critical security protection, which has provided Afghan women and girls with increased safety and opportunities to participate in education, employment, the health system, politics, and civil society. With these political and security transitions underway, the United States should act now, in coordination with Afghanistan and its partners, to cement and extend the gains and prevent reversal.
Topic:
Development, Education, Human Rights, Islam, Culture, and Reform
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

43. Water Pressures in Central Asia

Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Water has long been a major cause of conflict in Central Asia. Two states – Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – have a surplus; the other three say they do not get their share from the region's great rivers, the Syr Darya and Amu Darya, which slice across it from the Tien Shan, Pamir Mountains, and the Hindu Kush to the Aral Sea's remains. Pressures are mounting, especially in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The population in Central Asia has increased by almost ten million since 2000, and limited arable land is being depleted by over-use and outdated farming methods. Extensive corruption and failing infrastructure take further toll, while climate change is likely to have long-term negative consequences. As economies become weaker and states more fragile, heightened nationalism, border disputes, and regional tensions complicate the search for a mutually acceptable solution to the region's water needs. A new approach that addresses water and related issues through an interlocking set of individually more modest bilateral agreements instead of the chimera of a single comprehensive one is urgently needed.
Topic:
Agriculture, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, and Water
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

44. Taking off as a Global Power? China's Foreign Policy "Grand Strategy"

Author:
Sven Bernhard Gareis
Publication Date:
04-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The People's Republic of China has long been a very visible actor in international politics. With 1.4 billion inhabitants, it is the most populous country in the world, with a land mass of 9.6 million square kilometers bordering 14 states in East, South, and Central Asia. China has a long Pacific coastline, along which it claims vast areas of the South China Sea. A nuclear power since 1964, the People's Republic of China has the largest armed forces in the world, numbering approximately 2.3 million soldiers. China has been a permanent member of the UN Security Council since 1971; for many years, it has figured prominently in all decision making processes with global impact.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Central Asia

45. Iranian Naval and Maritime Strategy

Author:
Christopher Harmer
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The Iranian regime has among its strategic objectives expanding its power in the Middle East and rolling back U.S. influence in the region. Iranian leadership considers the Persian Gulf and much of Central Asia to be a "near abroad" where Iranian culture and interests should have significant influence. Recent developments confirm that Iran is committed to this ambition, has a strategy to realize this outcome, and is making significant progress towards it. Iran also clearly has ambitions to be a significant and relevant actor on the global stage, whose capabilities and intentions must be taken into consideration by superpower nations.
Topic:
Military Strategy and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Central Asia, and Middle East

46. Afghan Narcotrafficking: A Joint Threat Assessment

Author:
Jacqueline McLaren Miller
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
More than a decade after the United States and allied troops began military operations in Afghanistan, the country remains a major conflict zone. Afghanistan's continuing instability constitutes the largest security issue in the region. The country's role as the center of global opiate production contributes heavily to this instability. The grave social, economic, political, and security implications of the trafficking of the Afghan opiates extend beyond the regions of South, Southwest, and Central Asia. The opium economy in Afghanistan has become deeply entrenched and shows no signs of declining. Inside Afghanistan, narcotrafficking contributes to insecurity and feeds corruption, warlords, and insurgents. All this vastly complicates the prospects of the Afghan central government consolidating its power and effectively governing. Compounding these issues is the scheduled withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan in 2014 and the ongoing drawdown of U.S. troops.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, War on Drugs, Counterinsurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Central Asia

47. US AND IRANIAN STRATEGIC COMPETITION: The Impact of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Central Asia

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman, Sam Khazai, Robert M. Shelala II, Nori Kasting, and Sean Mann
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
Security and stability in Central and South Asia are driven by regional tensions and quarrels, and the internal instability of regional states. Weak governance and corruption are major problems in every state in the region, along with state barriers to economic growth and development and – in most cases – under investment in education, health, and infrastructure. Very young populations face major unemployment and underemployment problems and income distribution is badly unbalanced, and on sharply favors the ruling power elite. Ethic, tribal, and sectarian tensions compound these problems, and in many cases, so do internal and external threats from Islamic extremists and the growing tensions between Sunni and Shi‟ite.
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Central Asia, and India

48. Eve Geri Dönüş

Author:
Müge Dalkıran
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
The Voluntary Repatriation Program to Afghanistan assisted by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, which started in 2002, is the largest return program in the modern history. Whereas over 5,8 million Afghan refugees have returned to Afghanistan between 2002 and 2013, 4,7 million of them participated in the Voluntary Repatriation Program. Being the asylum fatigue countries, Iran and Pakistan are the main host countries conducting this program together with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. This paper examines the Voluntary Repatriation Program to Afghanistan in the light of the situation in Pakistan and Iran.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, Central Asia, and United Nations

49. Orta Asya'da İşbirliği ve Bütünleşme: Kolektif Güvenlik Antlaşması Örgütü Örneği

Author:
Çağla Gül Çağla Gül
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
Abstract:
This study examines the Collective Security Treaty Organization and its effects on cooperation and unification processes among Central Asian states. It argues that cooperation and unification among Central Asian States are mainly affected by the international environment that has changed after 9/11 and the Afghanistan Operation. Regional Powers have cooperated with both the US and the Russian Federation in fighting against terrorism. Central Asian States have been considering their new path through independent foreign policy or inter-state cooperation and even unification.
Topic:
Islam, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
United States and Central Asia

50. Kazakhstan: Waiting for Change

Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Kazakhstan has long been viewed from the outside as the most prosperous and stable country in a region widely regarded as fragile and dysfunctional. The appearance of wealth, based largely on the conspicuous consumption of Almaty and Astana, its main cities, and multi-billion-dollar energy contracts – increasingly with China – hides, however, a multitude of challenges. An ageing authoritarian leader with no designated successor, labour unrest, growing Islamism, corruption, and a state apparatus that, when confronted even with limited security challenges, seems hard-pressed to respond, all indicate that the Kazakh state is not as robust as it first appears. Without a significant effort to push forward with repeatedly promised political, social and economic reforms, Kazakhstan risks becoming just another Central Asian authoritarian regime that squandered the advantages bestowed on it by abundant natural resources.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
China, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan