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1. Strengthening Peace and Security in West Africa: A Conversation with Anthony Antem

Author:
Denis Foretia
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
As regional and global challenges related to peace and security continue to evolve, collaboration and knowledge-sharing remain critical to fostering sustainable solutions. The ReCAP Final Regional Conference, taking place in Dakar, Senegal, from February 10-11 2025, brings together experts, practitioners, and researchers from across West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin to reflect on lessons learned in conflict prevention, peacebuilding, and the fight against violent extremism. In this insightful conversation, Anthony Antem (AA), Head of the Conflict Prevention Unit at the Nkafu Policy Institute, discusses the peace and security landscape in West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin. He highlights Nkafu’s contributions to the ReCAP project, shares expectations for the conference, and reflects on the importance of regional collaboration in fostering sustainable peace. The discussion is led by Ayukmba Nkonghonyor (AN), Senior Communications Manager at the Denis and Lenora Foretia Foundation.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace, Interview, Countering Violent Extremism, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

2. Building Ambition in the Run-up to Belém: Italy’s G7 Presidency on Climate and Energy

Author:
Margherita Bianchi and Chiara Scissa
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A main priority of the 2024 Italian G7 presidency was to build stronger partnerships with African countries across a number of policy areas, including climate and energy. Italy pushed forward several G7 initiatives to tackle the adverse effects of climate change and resource scarcity in developing regions as well as to enhance energy access in Africa. Despite the relevance of these pledges, it is still unclear how these initiatives can align with, and maximise the impact of, existing climate- and energy-related projects set out in other fora. Still, the Italian G7 was successful in shedding light on the need for stronger intersectionality in G7 processes – finance, climate, infrastructure, food – and in advancing synergies with parallel G20 and climate conferences of the parties (COP) discussions. Canada, South Africa and Brazil, respectively holding the 2025 G7, G20 and COP30 Presidencies, can build on the lesson of the Italian G7 presidency, especially in light of the decreasing attention that major powers such as the United States are paying to multilateral governance regimes.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, G20, G7, and Energy
Political Geography:
Africa and Italy

3. Oil and the Cameroonian Economy: A Story of Unfulfilled Potential

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, Hans Tino Mpenya Ayamena, and Juste Lokossou
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
While Cameroon is one of the most endowed African countries in a wide range of overground and underground natural resources, it has struggled to leverage these resources to secure a decent living standard for the majority of its population. Instead of boasting impressive development outcomes, Cameroon is among African resource rich countries that are known for suffering high financial hemorrhage through capital flight. In a sense, capital flight from Africa has become a chronic manifestation of the ‘resource curse’ that tends to plague countries that are endowed with vast amounts of resources in a context of poor institutions and weak regulatory frameworks. This study provides a detailed analysis of the historical emergence of an externally dominated oil sector and the institutional and regulatory arrangements governing the sector to shed light on the causes of the country’s failure to fulfill its potential considering its impressive resource endowment. The evidence may shed light on strategies to usher a new path towards a Cameroonian economy beyond oil.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, and Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

4. Whom do African election campaigns contact? And does it matter?

Author:
Robert Mattes, Matthias Krönke, and Sarah J. Lockwood
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Canvassing is an important way in which political parties around the world raise awareness and connect with voters. Despite this, the literature on parties in new democracies, and Africa in particular, has tended to overlook this form of activity, focusing instead on vote buying, mass rallies, and meetings. In this paper, we use public opinion survey data from Afrobarometer and the Comparative National Elections Project to show that overall rates of canvassing in Africa are similar to other new, as well as many established, democracies. The data also challenge several dominant views of party campaigns in the Africanist literature. First, African parties do not concentrate primarily on turning out their base, rather than reaching across the partisan divide. Indeed, the opposite is the case. African parties expend more energy contacting nonpartisan independents and cross-partisans, and thus make a potentially meaningful contribution to the supply of multiparty competition. Second, the vast majority of contacts occur without any clientelist exchanges of material goods between parties and individual voters. And third, while incumbent parties enjoy canvassing advantages over opposition parties in around one-third of the surveyed countries, opposition parties (viewed collectively) match the party in power in terms of the ground game in another third, and enjoy higher rates of contact in yet another third.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Africa

5. Proximity to riots: Spatial exposure and attitudes toward the police in Africa

Author:
Souleymane Yameogo
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Riots have devastating consequences for communities, including the destruction of infrastructure, businesses, and human lives. The police, tasked with restoring order, are often perceived as either protectors or sources of threat and incompetence. This research investigates the impact of riot exposure on public trust in the police by incorporating both temporal and spatial dimensions of exposure, diverging from previous studies that focused solely on temporal effects. Using the terror management theory (TMT) framework, extended to inter-group conflict, this study conceptualises the police and the public as distinct groups whose behaviours and attitudes may conflict during riots. Matching geocoded Afrobarometer data with the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and employing a spatial difference-in-differences analysis, the study reveals a complex relationship between riot exposure and public trust in the police. While exposure to riots negatively impacts trust among residents living closer to riot sites – driven by heightened anxiety and direct exposure to violence – it increases trust among those living farther away. Furthermore, riot type and severity play crucial roles. Mob violence, with its chaotic nature, tends to bolster trust in the police, while violent demonstrations, which are more organised and often pursue political goals, do not. Moreover, lethal riots erode public trust in police more than non-lethal ones do. These findings underscore the importance of context-sensitive policing strategies that address the security concerns of riot-affected communities while maintaining trust across diverse populations. Policy makers must balance suppressing violence with building resilience and protecting vulnerable communities.
Topic:
Political Violence, Governance, Law Enforcement, Institutions, Police, Professionalism, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Africa

6. Overcoming silos for One Health: key determinants of One Health governance platforms in low- and lower middle-income countries

Author:
Christoph Strupat
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This study addresses a critical gap in One Health governance literature by providing a comprehensive review of cross-sectoral One Health governance platforms in low- and lower-middle-income countries across Asia and Africa. These platforms are pivotal for building resilience and improving governance at the human–animal–environment interface. Using a scoping review methodology, the study identifies 34 One Health platforms established across 52% of these countries, with a primary focus on zoonotic diseases and a growing emphasis on antimicrobial resistance and food safety. A polycentric governance lens was applied to analyse the interplay of authority, resources and information in shaping platform functionality. Key findings highlight that authority imbalances and single-sector dominance undermine stakeholder engagement, insufficient financial and human resources hinder operational capacity. Further­more, weak data-sharing protocols limit timely coordination and evidence-based decision-making. The review identifies critical entry points for enhancing platform efficacy: clarifying governance frameworks, investing in cross-sectoral human capacity-building and strengthening data-sharing infrastructures with robust protocols and interoperable platforms.
Topic:
Development, Governance, and Public Health
Political Geography:
Africa and Asia

7. Feminists’ perspectives as transformative levers in Ghana

Author:
Fidelia N. A. Ohemeng, Deda Ogum, Deborah Tayo Akakpo, and Dorcas Coker-Appiah
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
Ghana is a multi-party, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, with a dominant influence of socio-cultural norms and practices that impact negatively on women in their everyday lives. Most Ghanaians are subject to customary law which discriminates against women, even though Ghana practises legal pluralism. The overall aim of the study is to explore and analyse contemporary feminist perspectives and organising in Ghana to demonstrate how they can be used as levers for transformative change for greater equality and sustainable development. This was a cross-sectional and fully qualitative study involving 35 feminists and women’s rights advocates between the ages of 37 and 80+ years, with the majority (n=25) having over 20 years of experience and relevant postgraduate degrees. Data collection, analysis and conceptualisation were guided by the gender-transformative approach and the gender at work frameworks. Our findings show that gender inequity occurs in both formal and informal spaces. Strongly held socio-cultural norms emanating from patriarchy influence women’s daily lives, and the decisions made within sub-national and national legislature. Feminist strategies span general awareness creation, through lobbying, writing and reviewing of content for policies and laws, increasing the visibility of bills to picketing to ensure the passage and implementation of applicable laws or policies. Participants consider their strategies successful despite challenges such as backlash, burnout, and the lack of funding for their activities.
Topic:
Civil Society, Education, Feminism, Sustainable Development, Gender Equality, and Customary Law
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

8. Intersecting constraints: exploring labour market barriers for urban women in Sub-Sahara Africa

Author:
Alexander Stöcker
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This study examines the determinants of female labour force participation (FLFP) and female wage employment (FWE) of urban women in four SSA countries: Benin, Senegal, Uganda and Zambia. Using extensive micro-level data and a unified empirical framework, we investigate the multitude of constraints women face in both these dimensions. The methodology tries to bridge the drawbacks of typical macro-level cross-country studies and detailed country case studies, enabling direct comparisons over time and across countries. Key findings highlight substantial cross-country heterogeneity in barriers to female employment, including education, household wealth, motherhood, and male breadwinner norms. While higher education consistently enhances FLFP and FWE, motherhood negatively affects wage employment more persistently than labour force participation. Interaction effects between barriers, such as motherhood and male breadwinner norms, underscore their compounded impact. Additionally, local labour market conditions, namely the variety of occupations available, moderate these barriers, amplifying disadvantages for women in labour markets with higher levels of occupational variety. The study emphasises the importance of context-specific policy interventions. Recommendations include vocational training in Benin, advocacy for shifting restrictive norms in Senegal, targeted support for labour market transitions in Uganda, and addressing male breadwinner norms in Zambia. Future research should delve deeper into how labour market transitions influence female employment and how negative consequences can be remedied.
Topic:
Women, Employment, Labor Market, and Wages
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Senegal, Zambia, Benin, and Sub-Saharan Africa

9. Rule of law in Mozambique

Author:
Margherita Bove and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines the state and evolution of the rule of law in Mozambique, focusing on key dimensions such as voice and political participation, judicial independence and accessibility, corruption, access to basic services, personal security, and property rights. Drawing on Afrobarometer surveys, voting data, and conflict records, the paper offer insights into the perceptions and experiences of Mozambican citizens. The findings indicate a deterioration in institutional trust over the past two decades, alongside declining voter turnout in general elections and increasing election-related and political violence. Despite reforms aimed at improving judicial autonomy and accessibility, the legal system remains affected by inefficiencies and regional disparities. Citizens are often subject to bribery when accessing essential public services, and perception of corruption in key institutions remains high. Concerns about fairness and integrity in the land registration process can also weaken confidence in land security and property rights protection. The paper highlights the continued challenges Mozambique faces in consolidating the rule of law, exacerbated by legacies of conflict, political instability, and uneven socioeconomic development.
Topic:
Elections, Rule of Law, Institutions, Survey, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

10. How reliable are national accounts estimates of agricultural output?

Author:
Sam Jones and Marcelo Mucocana
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Measurement errors in macroeconomic aggregates such as GDP have been widely lamented, particularly in low-income contexts. This study investigates the reliability of one component of national accounts, agricultural sector output. Focusing first on the case of Mozambique, we use a series of 12 harmonized national agricultural micro-surveys to construct estimates of gross annual output in the sector. Compared to corresponding national accounts values for the period 2002–20, the micro-survey estimates are about 50% lower. A decomposition exercise indicates this gap is primarily driven by differences in base year levels, offset by higher rates of inflation observed in survey-based producer prices. Triangulating these estimates using household budget surveys, market price, and FAO production data, we find consistent support for the agricultural micro-survey estimates, suggesting real rates of total GDP growth may have been overestimated by 1 percentage point over the period. A cross-country comparison of national accounts and FAO production data indicates positive differences between estimates of agricultural output from the two sources are not unique to Mozambique, but with larger discrepancies among lower-income countries. Systematic investment in reliable and timely agricultural statistics is essential to track progress in the sector.
Topic:
Agriculture, GDP, Macroeconomics, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

11. Social protection for Mozambique’s elderly: History, structure, and potential effectiveness

Author:
Sara Almeida, Hanna Berkel, Sam Jones, Patricia Justino, and Telça Massingue
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study assesses the effectiveness of Mozambique's flagship social pension programme, the elderly component of the Programa de Subsídio Social Básico (PSSB). Focusing on three key criteria— programme targeting, reliability, and materiality—we combine administrative data on the universe of beneficiaries with the complete records of the 2017 Population and Housing Census. Merging these datasets at the localidade level, we provide a highly granular view of programme coverage rates and payment delivery regularity. We estimate that in the best case with zero targeting errors, the PSSB-Elderly programme reaches two-thirds of its target group. However, significant regional disparities persist, including undercoverage in poorer regions. Additionally, we document substantial delays in payments since 2023, as well as various inaccuracies in the beneficiary registry. These findings underscore the importance of simple and robust designs for social protection in resource-constrained contexts. They also suggest that expanding programme coverage towards a quasi-universal subsidy in high-poverty locations merits serious consideration.
Topic:
Poverty, Public Policy, Pension, and Payment Systems
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

12. Fiscal policy and commodity price shocks in South Africa

Author:
Tumisang Loate and Vincent Dadam
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper investigates the effect of commodity price shocks in a commodity-exporting small open economy, and the role of fiscal policy in transmitting these shocks to the rest of the economy. Using South African data, we first estimate an empirical model using a Bayesian vector autoregression model. We then develop a New Keynesian small open economy with labour market hysteresis and commodity price shocks. We find that a commodity price shock typically has an expansionary effect as real GDP and employment increase, which translates into higher tax revenue. The results from our dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model match the data. In addition, despite not modelling the tradable and non-tradable sectors explicitly, we find that there is an opportunity cost associated with taxing the commodity sector more than home production. This results in a higher trade deficit and government spending. Consequently, we also explore the role of countercyclical fiscal policy during a commodity boom.
Topic:
Economy, Fiscal Policy, Hysteresis, and Commodity Price Shock
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

13. Surviving the storm: How climate-related disasters reshape tax morale in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Enrico Nichelatti and Abrams Tagem
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Climate-related disasters have increased over recent decades, with severe human and economic consequences. While research has examined their macroeconomic effects and impact on households’ income and consumption patterns, little attention has been given to their impact on tax morale—taxpayers’ intrinsic motivation to comply with tax obligations. This study fills this gap by estimating the impact of climaterelated disasters on tax morale in 26 sub-Saharan African countries using Afrobarometer survey data from 2011 to 2021. The analysis considers six climate-related shocks: droughts, earthquakes, extreme temperatures, floods, storms, and wildfires. We hypothesize that the impact of climate-related disasters on tax morale depends on the specific disasters considered, and that these heterogeneous effects work through two key mechanisms: economic inequality and trust in public institutions. First, they can exacerbate inequality by reducing government revenue, increasing economic hardship for vulnerable groups (through loss of livelihoods), and eliciting unequal policy responses from government. Climate-related disasters can also reduce inequality when associated with increased economic hardship for richer households (by destroying their productive assets. Second, tax morale declines when citizens perceive government responses as inadequate or unfair; conversely, it increases if citizens perceive the government to be responding adequately. Logistic regression results confirm this heterogeneity. Droughts, extreme temperatures, floods, and storms reduce tax morale, while earthquakes and wildfires increase it. Incorporating regional heterogeneity shows that the negative effects of disasters on tax morale are more profound in rural areas. Mediation analysis confirms inequality and institutional trust as key transmission channels. These findings underscore the need for inclusive tax policies and effective post-disaster governance to sustain revenue mobilization in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Tax Systems, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

14. Carbon taxation and firm behaviour in emerging economies: Evidence from South Africa

Author:
Johannes Gallé, Rodrigo Oliveira, Daniel Overbeck, Nadine Riedel, and Edson Severnini
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of how firms in emerging economies respond to carbon taxation, leveraging detailed administrative data from South Africa—a potential trailblazer for other developing countries with limited state capacity amid the growing global push for carbon pricing. We examine the dynamic impacts of the carbon tax on firm-level outcomes—such as profits, sales, capital, and labour inputs—across manufacturing and mining firms, which are key sectors in the context of the carbon tax. Contrary to concerns that carbon taxes may hinder economic growth or reduce employment, our findings show no evidence of negative average impacts on firm performance or jobs. However, this overall result masks significant heterogeneity in the tax’s effects across sectors, driven by the sector-specific design elements of the South African carbon tax. Firms expecting higher effective tax rates may have intensified their use of emission-intensive machinery and depreciated capital in anticipation of the tax. This behaviour appears to stem from firms resolving regulatory uncertainty or seeking to recover costs from stranded assets.
Topic:
Employment, Economic Growth, Carbon Tax, and Emerging Economies
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

15. Twenty-five years of inflation-targeting in South Africa: Going from 6% to 3%?

Author:
Philippe Burger
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper proposes that the South African Reserve Bank should pursue a 3% inflation target, instead of the current 4.5% midpoint of a 3%-to-6% target range. Doing so may also result in lower inflation volatility, thereby reducing nominal exchange rate risk for investment and trade, and may thus support economic growth. Using a two-regime Markov-switching model, the analysis shows that since the global financial crisis, periods of higher inflation volatility are much shorter. Thus, inflation is relatively better anchored since the global financial crisis. But there are still shocks that coincide with periods of exchange rate volatility. Lastly, the analysis shows that the budget deficit/gross domestic product ratio, constraints on electricity supply, and administered prices contribute significantly to inflation, while the effect of real gross domestic product growth (as a demand variable) is limited. The analysis also argues that the sacrifice ratio, measuring the sacrifice of growth and employment that is required to reduce inflation, is of limited use once the potential role that other variables can play in the reduction of inflation and inflationary expectations is considered. The government has an especially significant role to play in supporting the South African Reserve Bank in lowering the inflation rate to an average of 3% by lowering the level and volatility of administered price inflation, reducing the budget deficit, and improving electricity supply.
Topic:
Budget, Investment, Inflation, Trade, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

16. (Digital) cash transfers, privacy and women’s empowerment: Evidence from Uganda

Author:
Greco Giulia, Gulesci Selim, Prabhakar Pallavi, and Sulaiman Munshi
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
This study reports findings from a randomized controlled trial in Uganda that provided unconditional cash transfers to married women, varying the payment method (cash or mobile money) and whether spouses were informed. Results show that mobile money transfers significantly enhance women’s economic independence and decision-making power, as reflected in increased personal labor income and greater say in household decisions. In contrast, cash transfers are more effective in reducing intimate partner violence (IPV), especially when both spouses are informed about the transfer. These findings reveal a critical trade-off: while digital payments promote women’s financial control, they may be less effective in addressing IPV. The study underscores the importance of considering both economic empowerment and safety outcomes when designing transfer programs for women.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Privacy, Empowerment, and Cash Transfers
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

17. Adapting and Validating WEE Indicators in an Experimental Study of Savings

Author:
Anahit Tevosyan, Scott Graham, and Joeri Smiths
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), Brac University
Abstract:
Traditional indicators of Women’s Economic Empowerment (WEE) are often too broad to effectively measure specific behavioral outcomes like women’s savings behavior (WSB). This study addresses that gap by identifying contextually relevant WEE indicators that closely align with savings behavior, using data from 1,498 FINCA Uganda women savers. It employs a two-step validation approach. First, qualitative methods such as focus groups and cognitive interviews establish a set of WEE indicators tailored to the local context. Then, machine learning models test how well these indicators predict actual savings behavior. The study links women’s self-perceived empowerment with real financial actions—setting savings goals, making deposits, and using funds purposefully. Further validation comes from a subsample exposed to a low-cost coaching intervention, which strengthens the WEE-WSB relationship and reveals which empowerment factors make coaching more or less effective. Notably, the research highlights often-overlooked domains such as external social influence and the complexity of decision-making burdens. This work offers a more targeted, behavior-linked approach to measuring WEE, with potential to improve the design and evaluation of development programs across varied contexts.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Women, Empowerment, and Savings
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

18. The United Nations–African Union Partnership and the Protection of Civilians

Author:
Andrew E. Yaw Tchie and Lauren McGowan
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The landscape of peace operations in Africa has transformed over the past decade, including a marked increase in African-led peace support operations (PSOs). Since the early 2000s, the African Union (AU) and UN have evolved distinct, albeit parallel, conceptual and operational approaches to the protection of civilians (POC). While the UN views POC in peacekeeping as a whole-of-mission objective, with military, police, and civilian components prioritizing POC and proactively protecting civilians, the AU views itself as contributing to the protection of civilians primarily by neutralizing armed groups and establishing a protective environment. These differences raise important questions about how POC will be upheld in the context of the UN-AU partnership. This report examines the operational differences between UN and AU approaches to POC, assessing their respective advantages and limitations. It highlights how African-led PSOs tend to be more able and willing to use force to respond to outbreaks of violence and to contain aggressors but have less sustainable and flexible financing than UN peacekeeping operations. Meanwhile, UN peacekeeping missions with POC mandates have more robust civilian and police components but may lack rapid response capabilities. To strengthen their partnership on POC, the two organizations should leverage their comparative advantages, acknowledge their respective limitations, and work toward an approach to POC that is tailored to each context. Based on the findings in this report, the following recommendations are made: Understandings of POC: The UN Department of Peace Operations (DPO) and AU Peace Support Operations Division (PSOD) should continue to facilitate understanding of their comparative advantages and challenges on POC. POC should be a central focus of efforts to implement the 2017 Joint Framework for Enhanced Partnership in Peace and Security. UN DPO and AU PSOD should share lessons learned and strengthen each other’s capacity. The AU compliance team should continue to support regional economic communities in adhering to AU POC policies. Structures on POC: The UN and AU should establish a joint lessons-learned mechanism within the UN Office to the AU to systematically assess joint UN-AU missions and African-led operations. UN DPO and AU PSOD should develop and implement a joint protection strategy when engaged in partnered operations. UN DPO and AU PSOD should conduct a thorough joint POC assessment prior to any partnered deployments. The AU Peace and Security Council and UN Security Council should engage in regular consultations on peace support operations, including on mandates.
Topic:
United Nations, Peacekeeping, Civilians, African Union, Protection, and Regional Organizations
Political Geography:
Africa

19. Effective community mobilization: evidence from Mali

Author:
Maria Laura Alzúa, Juan Camilo Cardenas, and Habiba Djebbari
Publication Date:
03-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Distributive, Labor and Social Studies (CEDLAS)
Abstract:
Experts argue that the adoption of healthy sanitation practices, such as hand washing and latrine use, requires focusing on the entire community rather than individual behaviors. According to this view, one limiting factor in ending open defecation lies in the capacity of the community to collectively act toward this goal. Each member of a community bears the private cost of contributing by washing hands and using latrines, but the benefits through better health outcomes depend on whether other community members also opt out of open defecation. We rely on a community-based intervention carried out in Mali as an illustrative example (Community-Led Total Sanitation or CLTS). Using a series of experiments conducted in 121 villages and designed to measure the willingness of community members to contribute to a local public good, we investigate the process of participation in a collective action problem setting. Our focus is on two types of activities: (1) gathering of community members to encourage public discussion of the collective action problem, and (2) facilitation by a community champion of the adoption of individual actions to attain the socially preferred outcome. In games, communication helps raise public good provision, and both open discussion and facilitated ones have the same impact. When a community member facilitates a discussion after an open discussion session, public good contributions increase, but there are no gains from opening up the discussion after a facilitated session. Community members who choose to contribute in the no-communication treatment are not better facilitators than those who choose not to contribute
Topic:
Development, Sanitation, Behavior, Public Goods, and Community Initiatives
Political Geography:
Africa and Mali

20. Neoliberalism’s True Heirs: What Late-Apartheid South Africa Can Teach Us About the Contemporary Far Right

Author:
Elizabeth Soer
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
How can we make sense of the resurgence of the far right across the world? From the re-election of Donald Trump to the flourishing of Hindu nationalism under Narendra Modi, right-wing politicians have undoubtedly grown in prominence over the last decade. There is a burgeoning literature on this topic as scholars attempt to understand whether it is a backlash against neoliberalism, a reactionary form of neoliberalism, or simply a cultural phenomenon produced by increased global connectivity. This paper contributes to the vibrant discussion by examining an ideal yet overlooked case of ethno-nationalist neoliberalism – apartheid South Africa in the 1980s. This case reveals neoliberalism’s relationship to colonialism and its contribution to the perpetuation of white rule. South Africa has served as a test case for neoliberal ideas about race and economics and can thus contribute broader insights on the topic. The paper argues that the contemporary far right is not a backlash against neoliberalism, but a robust continuation of it. It draws on a vast range of archival sources from the late-apartheid period as well as the writings of prominent neoliberal thinkers to support this argument.
Topic:
Apartheid, Neoliberalism, Far Right, and Ethnonationalism
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

21. Battle for the bush: Banditry and violent agrarian change in northwest Nigeria

Author:
Peer Schouten and James Barnett
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Contemporary banditry in northwest Nigeria is a multifaceted phenomenon that encompasses a wide spectrum of violence waged by heavily militarised yet loosely organised rural gangs. These groups engage in everything from cattle rustling to kidnapping for ransom and extortion of peasant communities, with bandits becoming important de facto authorities in swathes of rural northwest Nigeria. Underpinning the contemporary bandit conflict, we argue, is an ongoing ‘battle for the bush’ — a struggle over land, governance and rural livelihoods. Historically, the bush functioned as a shared space for farmers and pastoralists. However, land use data shows that the expansion of cropland farming has gradually overtaken grazing lands, reducing pastoral mobility and generating increasing conflicts. The state’s failure to mediate these tensions or provide equitable land policies, coupled with the breakdown of traditional conflict resolution mechanisms, has allowed grievances to fester. In response, bandits have violently reclaimed and reshaped the governance of the bush, not only as a refuge but as a domain of coercive rule, imposing levies on farming and controlling access to land and cattle. We examine the historical drivers of this transformation and analyse how opportunistic criminals and social bandits have evolved into de facto rural rulers. Along the way, the trend of cropland expansion is being reversed. Yet instead of reestablishing a pastoral idyll, banditry is reproducing the very conditions that gave rise to it, further undermining rural livelihoods in the northwest. This has compounded rural poverty and food insecurity while depriving pastoralist youths’ access to government services and education that could provide for a better future. Our analysis implies that the crisis cannot be solved through military interventions alone but requires a rethinking of rural governance.
Topic:
Agriculture, Land Conflict, Farmer-Pastoralist Conflict, and Banditry
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

22. Ghana’s electrification via rural mini-grids has been disappointing

Author:
Abdul-Bassit Abubakari
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Despite Ghana’s explicit plans to deploy mini-grids for the electrification of off-grid and remote communities, progress has been slow and disappointing. This paper explores how political dynamics and policy shifts have shaped the governance of mini-grids over time. It examines the evolution of mini-grids in Ghana in three phases: preliminary design stage (2007–2013); active implementation period, marked by policy modifications (2013–2019); and subsequent consolidation under a predominantly public-led model post-2019. Guided by an adapted political settlements framework and process tracing methodology, the paper argues that misalignment between the government of Ghana and donors over governance and ownership models, mediated by the country’s competitive clientelist politics, explains Ghana’s limited progress in the development of mini-grids. The paper provides nuanced insights into the complex ways transnational factors and domestic politics interact in shaping the development of mini-grids with wide implications for debates on energy governance and reform in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Electricity, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

23. Foreign policy congruence in Africa: Evidence on free movement and free trade

Author:
Florian G. Kern, Martin C. Steinwand, and Samira Diebire
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does foreign policy of African governments reflect the preferences of their constituents? Scholars have studied public opinion in Africa and how constituents assess government performance. Yet social scientists neglect how and why foreign policy by African governments reflects public opinion, despite much anecdotal evidence of citizens expressing opinion on African foreign policy. In this paper, we investigate the congruence of governmental foreign policy positions and public opinion on issues of free movement and free trade across 34 African countries. We explore two drivers of foreign policy congruence: first democratic vs. autocratic government, and second external rents accruing from natural resources, aid, and remittances. Our descriptive evidence suggests that, on free trade, African publics tend to be more trade-sceptic than the liberalised policy positions of their governments, meaning low foreign policy congruence. On free movement, low foreign policy congruence stems from African constituents preferring more liberalisation than what governments provide. Surprisingly, multivariate analysis indicates that democracies show lower foreign policy congruence than autocracies on issues of free trade. We argue that this may be because democracies systemically oversupply market liberalisation. We cannot find an effect of external rents on foreign policy congruence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Free Trade, Freedom of Movement, and Globalism
Political Geography:
Africa

24. How China Collateralizes

Author:
Anna Gelpern, Omar Haddad, Sebastian Horn, Paulina Kintzinger, Bradley C. Parks, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the secured lending practices of Chinese creditors in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We present a new dataset and detailed case studies of collateralized public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) loans from Chinese state-owned institutions in EMDEs between 2000 and 2021. Almost half of China's total PPG loan portfolio to EMDEs is effectively collateralized - amounting to $420 billion in collateralized debt across 57 countries. We document that Chinese lenders use techniques adapted from export and project finance to build multi-layered legal safety nets, which help ensure that risky EMDE loans will be repaid. As security, they use liquid, easily accessible assets, such as cash in bank accounts located in China. They rarely take infrastructure project assets as collateral, but often rely for repayment on established commodity revenue streams unrelated to the project. Typically, EMDE governments and state-owned enterprises commit to route foreign currency proceeds from commodity sales through bank accounts controlled by the lender. The cash balances in these accounts can be very large; in low-income, commodity-exporting countries, they average more than 20% of annual PPG debt service to all external creditors. The same revenue source can secure multiple successive borrowings over many years. Our findings reveal a previously undocumented pattern of revenue ring-fencing, where a significant share of commodity export receipts never reaches the exporting countries. Revenues routed overseas secure priority repayment for the creditor; they remain out of public sight and largely beyond the borrower’s reach until the secured debts are repaid. These findings raise new concerns about debt transparency, fiscal management, fiscal autonomy, and the quality of macroeconomic surveillance, particularly in commodity-exporting EMDEs.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Americas

25. Identifying Mutual Interests: How Donor Countries Benefit from Foreign Aid

Author:
Tobias Heidland, Maximilian Michael, Moritz Schularick, and Rainer Thiele
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Official development assistance (ODA) is widely studied for its impact on recipient countries, but its effects on donor countries remain underexplored. To address this gap systematically, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding when foreign aid generates measurable returns for donor countries as well as those cases when donor and recipient interests align—what we term mutual interest ODA. We categorize potential donor benefits into three domains: economic, geopolitical, and security-related, and distinguish these benefits by their timing and degree of directness. We then systematically survey the empirical evidence on donor benefits, assessing the empirical credibility and magnitude of estimated effects and pointing out research gaps. We find consistent evidence of substantial donor benefits across all three domains. A key insight is that aggregate aid flows often mask significant variation: The returns to donors depend critically on the type of aid, delivery modality, and recipient context. These findings have important implications for both academic and policy debates on the effectiveness, political sustainability, and future direction of development aid.
Topic:
Climate Change, Globalization, Health, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Americas

26. Africa’s Faustian Bargain with the International Monetary Fund

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Decades of IMF interventions have locked African nations into cycles of debt, austerity, and economic dependency, stifling real development while reinforcing neocolonial control over the continent’s financial sovereignty.
Topic:
Debt, Development, International Monetary Fund, Austerity, Economic Dependence, Neocolonialism, and Financial Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Africa

27. The Bandung Spirit

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In 1955, the leaders of former Global South colonies met in Bandung, Indonesia, brought together by a common spirit for national liberation and cooperation. Seventy years later, is there any trace of it left?
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, History, Global South, and Internationalism
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, and Asia

28. The Sahel Seeks Sovereignty

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
On the heels of popular military coups, how are Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger returning to a path of sovereignty while navigating a legacy of dependency and internal-external security challenges?
Topic:
Security, Development, Sovereignty, Coup, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

29. Understanding Uganda’s (ambiguous) actions in Eastern DRC: Military interventions to protect roads and trade?

Author:
Kristof Titeca and Giovanni Salvaggio
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Much attention has been given to the role of Rwanda in the conflict in Eastern DRC, and its support to M23. Much less attention has been given to the role of Uganda. In this briefing, we aim to fill this gap. We will show how that Uganda’s presence in Eastern DRC has strong economic under- and overtones: much of Uganda’s actions are centered around protecting trade and roads in Eastern DRC. This builds on historical relations between Uganda and Congolese traders – particularly the Nande and Hema business community – with whom it had been discussing these issues in the years prior to their military intervention. In doing so, Uganda primarily protects its own interests, and has ambiguous relations with all key-actors in the conflict – M23, Kigali and Kinshasa. We will show this by first explaining the broader history of economic relations between Uganda and Eastern DRC, and second, link this to its current actions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Trade, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Central Africa

30. Urban Refugee Policies and Legislation in Kenya and Uganda: 2025 Stocktake

Author:
Thomas Ginn and Harrison Tang
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Policy for urban refugees in Kenya and Uganda is rarely at the forefront of national discussions, leaving important gaps that could potentially be addressed with engagement from civil society. Based on a series of key informant interviews, this policy paper provides a stocktake of recent shifts in policies, legislation, and practices impacting urban refugees in both countries since 2022. We document several changes, most notably the inclusion of urban refugees in Kenya’s national social security scheme and in local government councils in Kampala, but these initiatives are yet to be scaled. We recommend that organizations advocating on behalf of urban refugees focus directly on access to documentation and, more broadly, prioritize concrete objectives that are achievable under current law.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Resettlement
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, and Africa

31. China's Investment Pivot and Africa’s Industrial Prospects: Any Hope for African “Flying Geese”?

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
This paper examines the changing shape of Chinese investment in Africa, as it evolves from large scale infrastructure toward small scale manufacturing. It looks at the opportunity for the region in the context of a deepening manufacturing labor shortage in China; discusses barriers to that opportunity in both China and the Africa region; and the potential response of Western countries. It may be possible for at least some economies in Africa to benefit from a combination of Chinese investment in manufactured export and processed commodity industries and preferential access to economies including the US and China if geopolitics allow, but there are many reasons this could fail and the geopolitics are increasingly hostile. A backup plan for regional growth would be wise.
Topic:
Debt, Investment, Trade, Industry, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

32. Multidimensional Energy Poverty for Botswana: Does gender matter?

Author:
Thabile A. Samboma, Khaufelo R. Lekobane, and Koketso Molefhi
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The energy-gender nexus is a topical issue that has gained traction among researchers and policymakers. Access to clean energy and gender equality are two of the most crucial sustainable development goals (SDGs) that affect households directly. Notwithstanding this, the gendered analysis of multidimensional energy poverty has been minimal in the empirical literature. Using the 2015/16 Botswana multi-topic household survey, this study investigates the gendered dimensions of energy poverty in Botswana, emphasising the disparities in energy access and affordability between male and female-headed households. We employed the Alkire-Foster (AF) methodology to compute our aggregate multidimensional energy poverty index (MEPI). Overall, we find that in Botswana, the gender gaps in multidimensional energy poverty levels are more than 10% for the poverty incidence and adjusted headcount ratio. This suggests that energy poverty in Botswana seems to be feminised. However, the gender gap in the intensity of multidimensional energy poverty is lower than 3% in favour of femaleheaded households. Finally, substantial gender gaps exist across household demographic characteristics, human capital, economic variables, and geography. The findings suggest that while Botswana has made significant progress in promoting renewable energy access through initiatives such as the Photovoltaic Rural Electrification Programme, gender-specific barriers remain. The study recommends enhanced policies that integrate gender considerations to foster equitable energy solutions, ensuring that all households, irrespective of the gender of the household head, can thrive in a sustainable and energysecure environment.
Topic:
Poverty, Sustainable Development Goals, Energy, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

33. Tobacco Control in Botswana: Effectiveness of Tax Changes in Reducing Tobacco Demand

Author:
Tshepiso Gaetsewe and Goitseone Khanie
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Botswana has one of the highest adult tobacco-use rates in the WHO African Region. Despite measures and policies put in place to control tobacco consumption, there is still a widespread use of tobacco products in the country. This is because demand for tobacco and tobacco products is mostly affected by changes in tobacco prices and related taxes. This study therefore seeks to analyse the responsiveness of cigarette demand to price changes in Botswana. This is done by estimating the conditional price elasticity of cigarette demand using Deaton’s model and the Botswana Multi-Topic Household Survey (BMTHS) data of 2015/16. The cigarette price elasticity of demand in Botswana is estimated to be -0.86. The results indicate that a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes will reduce cigarette demand by 8.6% among smokers. These findings provide the first scientific evidence of conditional elasticity on consumption for policymakers in Botswana. These findings are expected to guide policymakers and those involved in tobacco control in formulating the most effective policies for regulating and controlling the consumption of tobacco in Botswana.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Tobacco, and Price Elasticity
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

34. Exploring the UN’s Interventionist Role in South Sudan: Peacemaking, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding

Author:
Norman Sempijja
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The role of the United Nations (UN) in conflict intervention in Africa has undergone a significant transformation, shifting from a central actor to a more supportive role. Regional organizations, such as the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have taken the lead in mediation and conflict resolution on the continent. While the UN continues to play a crucial part in peacekeeping and peacebuilding, its role is increasingly impacted by fragmented responsibilities, regional political dynamics, and operational constraints. In assessing how these factors have influenced the effectiveness of UN intervention, this study draws the case of South Sudan. Specifically, it examines whether the UN’s peripheral role in peacemaking has directly impacted its ability to implement peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts, or whether broader structural and political challenges are more decisive in shaping its effectiveness. By analyzing the complex interactions between the UN, regional organizations, and the realities of the conflict in South Sudan, this study argues that the UN’s limited role in peace negotiations is not the primary determinant of its success or failure. Instead, the combined effects of institutional fragmentation, competing regional interests, and the unstable political landscape of South Sudan have shaped the outcomes of UN interventions. These findings challenge the assumption that the UN’s peripheral role inherently weakens its impact, demonstrating that its effectiveness depends on how well it navigates these broader structural challenges. This study contributes to the ongoing debates on the evolving nature of international peace operations in Africa and the need for better coordination between global and regional actors to achieve sustainable peace.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

35. The Public Realm, Urban Protest and Peacebuilding: The #EndSARS Protests in Nigeria

Author:
Irene Doosuur Mngutyo
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The potential of ‘protest sites’ for advancing peacebuilding has come under scrutiny with the global rise in popular dissent, especially as the catalytic effect of social media on protests became apparent following the Arab Spring. The symbiotic relationship between the taxonomies of space in the public realm and the potential of physical sites to act as defensible space is questioned in this paper. This is within the context of the EndSARS protests, which occurred from October 11 to 28, 2020, in Nigeria. The EndSARS protest is one example of an increasing tide of political dissent that has highlighted the links between ‘sites’ of urban protests and peacebuilding processes. Features of protest sites were evaluated using observations and measurements. Links between protest ‘sites’ were assessed from the content of four national dailies and X (formerly known as Twitter) chatter using the #EndSARS hashtag, as well as interviews withprotesters and organizers. Findings revealed that most sites used for protest activities could benefit from design imperatives to strengthen their ability to serve as defensible spaces. Recommendations focus on policy for the design of protest sites and peacebuilding.
Topic:
Protests, Urban, Peacebuilding, and EndSARS
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

36. Resolving the puzzle of "reversed favoritism" in African agriculture

Author:
Lennart C. Kaplan
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The political economy literature highlights the redistribution of resources to political support groups - often along regional or ethnic lines - as an axiom of political systems. In contrast to this dominant pattern, Kasara (2007) documents a puzzling result of discriminatory rent extraction by political leaders from farmers in their ethnic home region. Linking a new database on the ethnic and regional affiliation of political leaders to fine-grained survey data, I disentangle ethnic and regional affiliations and show that their intersection explains the phenomenon which I will label in the following “reversed favoritism." More specifically, I provide evidence that agricultural price hikes indeed do not reduce poverty among co-ethnic farmers in the leader's birth region. My results indicate that leaders seem to act politically rational as they only apply this treatment in regions where they enjoy high trust. I show in an exploratory analysis that the counter-intuitive support of discriminatory policies can be explained by transfers in other areas, namely development aid.
Topic:
Agriculture, Political Economy, Ethnicity, Development Aid, and Favoritism
Political Geography:
Africa

37. Rethinking Aid in a Contested World

Author:
Stefan Dercon
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Development aid faces a crisis of budgets, legitimacy, and political alignment. Framed in recent decades as technocratic and benevolent, aid has always been political, shaped by donor and recipient incentives. Its post–Cold War expansion reflected a permissive era of unipolarity and globalization, when Western foreign policy, business, and security establishments provided broad support. That equilibrium has now collapsed. Multipolar rivalry, protectionism, and fragmented domestic coalitions have left aid vulnerable, shallowly supported, and increasingly driven by narrow donor interests. The paper calls for recognition of the need for a globalization 2.0 that enables poorer countries to grow, warning that without such a framework, remaining aid will become more fragmented and ineffective. It also cautions against a euphemistic reliance on “mutual interest,” as evidence of genuine donor–recipient benefits is limited; trade facilitation and post-conflict stabilization are rare exceptions. Finally, the paper advances four propositions: aid must be selective, avoid entrenching dependency, balance short-term results with long-term system building, and support reformers willing to challenge the status quo. Only by acknowledging its political nature and aligning incentives within a reconfigured global order can aid remain relevant to development.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, and North America

38. Balancing the Scales of Trade: Zambia-China Relations in a Dynamic Global Economy

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Over the past two and a half decades, Sino-Zambian trade relations have transformed into a multifaceted economic partnership, evolving from foundational political alliances to a dynamic framework of economic collaboration. The diplomatic ties established on October 29, 1964, between Zambia and China provided the initial platform for engagement, exemplified by landmark projects like the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA). However, the turning point in bilateral economic relations occurred following China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, which marked a new era of global economic integration and elevated trade and investment between the two countries In this context, this paper examines the evolving bilateral trade and investment relationship between Zambia and China, highlighting key findings regarding the structural features and composition of trade. China has emerged as Zambia’s top trading partner, with Zambia mainly exporting raw mineral commodities and primary goods while importing Chinese manufactured products. Furthermore, the trade and investment structure reveal a high degree of sectoral concentration, particularly in the mining sector, which has dominated both Chinese investments and imports from Zambia. This has positioned China as a major source of foreign direct and portfolio investment, particularly in the mining sector, leaving a small fraction of their total investments going to other economic sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and tourism. Global developments such as, Climate change, the global clean energy transition and shifting geopolitical alignments are reshaping the relationship between Zambia-China trade and investment frameworks. These developments challenge traditional trade frameworks, such as the comparative advantage and gravity theory of international trade, to explain the evolving trade dynamics. China’s structural changes in its real estate market and demographic pressures from an aging population, is projected to continue shaping its future economic growth trajectory. Consequently, the second section of this paper assesses the implications of China’s economic performance on Zambia, with particular attention to shifts in Chinese investment strategies. Emerging trends suggest that policy swing toward global clean energy transition agenda will shape the future economies, especially mineral resource dependent countries. Likewise, the analysis identifies risks and opportunities associated with resource-dependent economies like Zambia, given the changing scales of trade arising from China’s gradual shift in trade and investment priorities. Therefore, this paper begins by assessing the economic relationship between Zambia and China, focusing on bilateral trade, investment flows, and auxiliary connections such as construction projects and the role of Chinese investments in Zambia. It then examines recent trends and forecasts for Zambia-China economic relations, balancing short-term cyclical factors with long-term structural developments. Finally, we conclude by outlining policy recommendations to enable Zambia to adapt to the evolving dynamics of its engagement with China, with the aim of promoting favorable balance of trade.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Investment, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Zambia

39. Beyond Zambia's 2020 Sovereign Debt Default

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This paper provides an analysis of Zambia’s 2020 debt default, its economic aftermath, and the policy and institutional responses that have shaped the country’s recovery. The study situates the default within a broader global and domestic context of rising debt vulnerabilities, fiscal indiscipline, and external shocks, highlighting how years of high borrowing, exchange rate volatility, and weak public financial management culminated in the crisis. Following the default, Zambia faced acute liquidity challenges, rising inflation, and restricted access to international capital markets. In response, the government pursued fiscal consolidation and institutional reforms under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF), alongside a debt restructuring process guided by the G20 Common Framework. These measures sought to restore stability, rebuild confidence, and create space for inclusive growth while prioritising social spending and debt transparency. The study analyses the debt restructuring agreements with the Official Creditor Committee and Eurobond holders, noting the inclusion of state-contingent instruments, particularly the Value Recovery Instrument (VRI) embedded in the B-bond. This clause links Zambia’s future debt service obligations to improvements in its Composite Indicator (CI)—a metric combining the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), import coverage of reserves, and global growth trends. If Zambia’s CI exceeds a threshold of 2.69, the upside payment mechanism would be activated, triggering higher coupon rates and accelerated repayments. While this offers creditors a share in Zambia’s potential recovery, it also raises sustainability concerns, as it could increase the country’s debt service burden precisely when fiscal buffers remain fragile. It, however, does not provide any safeguards against adverse shocks or unexpected macroeconomic volatility, leaving the Government exposed to budgetary stress in the event of slower-than-expected growth or external disruptions. The paper, therefore, emphasises that durable debt sustainability depends on more than restructuring; it requires sustained reforms in domestic revenue mobilisation, prudent fiscal management, and institutional capacity building. It also calls for improvements to the Common Framework to enhance timeliness, predictability, and equitable burden-sharing among creditors, thereby reducing delays, improving fairness in repayment obligations, and providing more explicit guidance for future debt restructuring efforts.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Debt Restructuring, and Sovereign Default
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

40. Overview of Private Sector Participation in Zambia’s Energy Sector

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This document is the response of the Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR) to the request by the Committee on Energy, Water Development and Tourism of the National Assembly assigned to scrutinise Private Sector Participation in the Energy Sector. The memorandum is structured as follows: Section one introduces the purpose of the memorandum. Section two provides an overview of the Energy Sector in Zambia, while Section three delves into private sector involvement in the energy sector. Section four focuses on the threats and opportunities for private sector involvement, while Section five looks at how the private sector has contributed to energy projects in other countries. Section six delves into the benefits of private sector involvement, and Section seven concludes.
Topic:
Development, Private Sector, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

41. Geographical Diversification of Vaccine Production: Challenges for Africa and Latin America

Author:
William Savedoff
Publication Date:
11-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
frica and Latin America are the world regions most dependent on importing vaccines. Though they differ demographically, economically, politically, and historically, many of the issues they face when seeking to promote vaccine production are similar. In this regard, they have much to learn from each other in terms of options and strategies. After characterizing the relevant differences and similarities between the two regions, this paper argues that negotiating and implementing regional agreements is the most reliable way for each region to promote vaccine production compared to alternatives. It describes some of the more prominent regional vaccine initiatives that are underway and outlines options for governing such arrangements based on regional experiences inside and outside health. The paper argues that the most significant obstacle to promoting vaccine production is effective demand because most countries are too small on their own to support the scale required to motivate and sustain production. In addition, the prospects for regional or subregional agreements to assure producers that there will be sustained demand for their vaccines are unlikely due to the difficulties of establishing binding international pacts to pool purchasing in sufficient volumes. A second critical obstacle is an adequate number of individuals with the requisite skills for biomedical research, development, and manufacturing. Finally, without a high-quality and efficient regulatory systems, it is difficult for countries to assure vaccine quality, let alone attract private investors. The paper concludes by reviewing some common strategies for promoting vaccine production, including actions on the demand side, supply interventions, and institutional factors. It considers the advantages of regional agreements and discusses characteristics for such agreements that are important to their success.
Topic:
Diversification, Public Health, Vaccine, and Imports
Political Geography:
Africa and Latin America

42. Understanding the Role of Women in Nigeria’s Non-State Armed Groups and Security Architecture

Author:
Michael Nwankpa
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Since 1999, when Nigeria returned to civilian government after successive military regimes, it has continued to face enormous challenges to its legitimacy and monopoly of the use of force. Protest groups, social movements, and non-state armed groups have emerged over the years to demand good governance in some cases and, in other extreme cases, secession, self-determination, and subversion of Nigeria’s secular political system. Many groups have been willing to take up arms against the state to pursue their objectives. Men are usually the significant actors in these armed groups, while most women are considered victims. However, since 2014, when Boko Haram started deploying female suicide bombers and mobilizing more and more girls and women in its terrorist strategies, women’s role in Nigeria’s armed conflicts and their capacity to use violence have gained visibility. Despite this, ascertaining the role of women (mainly whether they occupy positions of power and can perpetrate violence) in non-state armed groups’ activities against the Nigerian state remains difficult, judging by the overwhelmingly male-dominated recipients of the government’s amnesty and deradicalization programs. Relying on interviews with key respondents, this paper fills this gap by interrogating the role of women as victims or perpetrators in Boko Haram and Niger Delta insurgencies, Nigeria’s two foremost insurgencies since the return to democracy in 1999, as well as engaging with the prospect of an effective legislative and policy response that is negotiated by increasing the number of women in security and political leadership positions.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Women, Disarmament, Boko Haram, Armed Conflict, Amnesty, and Reintegration
Political Geography:
Africa, Nigeria, and Niger Delta

43. South Africa’s Cyber Strategy Under Ramaphosa: Limited Progress, Low Priority

Author:
Joe Devanny and Russell Buchan
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
During the decades of apartheid, South Africa was an international pariah. Since the country transitioned to majority rule in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated politics, and the ANC has itself transitioned from a national liberation movement to a party of government. Domestically, South African cyber strategy should be seen as part of the ANC’s wider political challenge of trying to deliver economic growth, development, and prosperity. Over thirty years, the ANC has struggled to deliver on this agenda in a profoundly unequal society with infrastructure and institutions that have weakened particularly over the past fifteen years. Alongside confronting domestic challenges, the ANC has also tried to reshape South Africa’s global role. This was perhaps most visible under its first president, Nelson Mandela (1994–1999), but it was arguably pursued most systematically under Mandela’s successor, Thabo Mbeki (1999–2008). This reorientation of South Africa in the world was an ambitious and complex project, the foundations of which were the country’s leading role in its region and continent as well as its ties within the wider Global South. The project entailed tensions between the progressive promotion of human rights and freedoms, on the one hand, and the cultivation of instrumental relations with authoritarian and repressive states, on the other. These tensions continue to affect South African foreign policy, including its cyber diplomacy. South Africa identifies cybersecurity as a key national priority and has to this end adopted a national cybersecurity strategy and established a military Cyber Command. The reality, however, is that other issues have been consistently ranked above cybersecurity, such as addressing corruption, poverty, racial and social injustice, and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Cybersecurity has therefore not been seen as a high priority by successive South African governments. This has left Cyber Command underresourced and unmotivated. This deprioritization means that South Africa is unlikely to emerge as a prominent military or intelligence cyber power anytime soon. The wider lack of national prioritization will also make it harder for so-called like-minded states—which are bound together by a mutual respect for democracy, human rights, and the rule of law—to form an effective partnership with South Africa on the topic of cybersecurity. South Africa’s approach to international cyber governance debates has been cautious and noncommittal, reflecting cyber diplomacy’s relatively low priority in its national strategy. What position South Africa takes in cyber debates is, however, of keen interest to the international community. An important question is whether South Africa will support the existing multistakeholder approach to cyber governance that is championed by like-minded states or join China and Russia in their efforts to recalibrate this approach and push for greater state control over cyberspace. Indeed, under President Cyril Ramaphosa, South Africa has not yet published its national position explaining how international law applies to cyberspace. A related question is whether South Africa will join like-minded states in elaborating how existing international law applies to cyberspace or side with China and Russia to campaign for new, bespoke international law (for example, treaties) to regulate this domain. When examining these questions, it is important to recognize the context of the ANC’s long-standing ties with Russia, both during its thirty years in government and in its previous decades struggling for national liberation. This is helpful for understanding South Africa’s interactions with Brazil, Russia, India, and China (which form the BRICS bloc with South Africa) and forecasting its future positions in cyber governance debates. For example, South Africa has been reluctant to unambiguously condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and it appears to have supported Moscow by covertly supplying it with weapons. In the longer term, South Africa’s positions in cyber diplomacy debates will likely be shaped by trends in both domestic politics—such as the ANC’s waning electoral performance—and the success of digital development. In this context, it is perhaps advisable for like-minded states, such as the United States, to focus on cyber capacity-building assistance and ensure that these efforts play into the wider development agenda in South Africa.
Topic:
Corruption, Poverty, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Democracy, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:
Africa, Iran, and South Africa

44. The Gendering of Sudan’s Brutal War

Author:
Nafisa Bedri and Tamsin Bradley
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Journal:
Cairo Review of Global Affairs
Institution:
School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
Abstract:
Any analysis of the sexual violence and unfolding genocide must highlight the extent to which the media is still using an orientalist gaze to report on the war in Sudan
Topic:
Civil War, Genocide, Human Rights, Women, Media, Sexual Violence, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

45. Emerging public debt challenges in sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Maureen Were
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)’s public debt burden remains a challenge to development. Key drivers of public debt include large-scale financing of infrastructure development, adverse impact of multiple shocks including COVID-19 pandemic, maturity mismatches, and high vulnerability to exchange rate and interest rate volatility. The tight financial conditions following interest rate hikes in advanced economies have exacerbated the debt burden and heightened debt sustainability risks. Half of the SSA low-income countries are either in debt distress or at high risk of it. Countries in debt distress include middle-income economies. Given the high cost of debt servicing and lack of fiscal space, achievement of sustainable development goals is in jeopardy. A long-term sustainable solution requires a multi-pronged approach. The G20 Common Framework for debt treatment remains limited in scope, coverage, and impact. More needs to be done including consideration for debt relief. Other strategies include access to long-term concessional finance, domestic resource mobilization, and improved efficiency in public spending and fiscal management.
Topic:
Development, Infrastructure, Sustainability, Public Debt, and Public Spending
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

46. Institutions and governance in Mozambique :A bird’s eye view based on existing databases

Author:
Ines A. Ferreira
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Using publicly available databases and drawing on a wide range of indicators, this paper reviews the institutional performance of Mozambique across seven broad categories: rule of law and judicial independence; voice and freedom of expression/association; political participation; accountability and transparency; political instability and violence, and external relations; state legitimacy and political leadership; and governance and state capacity. Overall, the selected indicators point to similar trends within each dimension and suggest limited progress during the last decades. Still, it is fundamental that these insights and the scores presented by the indicators are put into context, and that we understand the historical path of Mozambique, the internal and external factors at play, and the fact that it takes time for progress achieved to be reflected in this type of data.
Topic:
Governance, Leadership, Freedom of Expression, Rule of Law, Accountability, Institutions, Judiciary, Instability, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

47. Cultivating change: the long-term impact of forced labour in Mozambique

Author:
Margherita Bove, Rute Martins Caeiro, Rachel Coelho, Sam Jones, and Patricia Justino
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Following the abolition of slavery, various forms of compulsory labour were adopted by colonial powers to develop their economies. This paper analyses the contemporary consequences of compulsory cotton production—a forced labour system that operated in colonial Mozambique from 1926 to 1961. During this period, the Portuguese colonial government granted geographic concessions to private companies, within which smallholder farmers were forced to cultivate cotton for payment in cash. Women bore the brunt of this regime, but in doing so often took on responsibilities traditionally reserved for men and engaged in active resistance strategies. Employing a spatial regression discontinuity, we explore the enduring impact of this exposure to forced cotton cultivation on present-day human and social capital, focusing specifically on rural southern Mozambique. Our estimation strategy relies on the arbitrarily defined historical borders of the concessions, which reflected the tendency of concessionaires to absorb as much territory as possible, often ignoring agronomic conditions. Drawing on bespoke individual-level survey data collected along the concession border, we find lower educational outcomes among women in former concession areas. However, this is counterbalanced by positive effects on social capital, in the form of higher levels of civil participation, more progressive attitudes towards gender norms, and an increased presence of women in leadership positions. These results suggest that exogenous ruptures that push women outside traditional boundaries can help to reinforce their role in society.
Topic:
History, Women, Colonialism, Human Capital, Social Capital, Forced Labor, and Cotton
Political Geography:
Africa and Mozambique

48. What traders know: the (mis)perceptions of formal and informal cross-border traders

Author:
Paolo Falco and Eleanor Wiseman
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
ross-border traders face a choice between official and unofficial border crossings. The latter allow them to evade taxes, but expose them to other risks, such as bribes, fines, and arrest. We investigate the perceptions of cross-border traders about the risks of trading officially vs unofficially at the border between Kenya and Uganda. We find that traders overestimate the risks of trading officially relative to the same risks when trading unofficially. In reality, the measured risks of trading through the official border are lower.
Topic:
Borders, Risk, Trade, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, and Africa

49. Watts happening to work? The labour market effects of South Africa’s electricity crisis

Author:
Haroon Bhorat and Timothy Köhler
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Frequent electricity outages threaten to impede the benefits of expanded access achieved by many developing countries in recent decades. A large literature documents these negative effects, however almost none consider labour market effects. This paper merges labour force survey microdata with high-frequency electricity supply and demand data to provide the first estimates of the relationships between outages and labour market outcomes in South Africa, a country characterized by frequent, severe outages referred to as load shedding. Exploiting temporal variation in outage incidence and intensity, we find that load shedding is associated with significantly lower employment rates, working hours, and earnings on average. Employment appears more sensitive relative to intensive margin outcomes, threatening job creation and preservation efforts. These negative relationships, however, are not evident for low levels of load shedding, but their strength markedly increases with load shedding intensity. We document further heterogeneity by firm size and industry, highlighting the vulnerability of jobs in manufacturing. Overall, our findings suggest that the South African labour market is largely insensitive to relatively low levels of load shedding; however, high levels appear especially costly.
Topic:
Employment, Economy, Electricity, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

50. Market power and merger control in South Africa

Author:
C. Friedrich Kreuser, Michael Kilumelume, and Rulof Burger
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We estimate structural, materials, and labour markups for the South African economy at the three-digit industry level for 2012–19. The fall in structural labour and materials markups found for the numerical majority of industries are generally isolated to smaller industries, with industries accounting for a higher proportion of sales generally experiencing smaller downward shifts. We show that materials-based markups are increasing over this period. Upward markup pressure in structural and labour markups are primarily driven by compositional shifts of surviving firms, while materials markup growth is driven by the average firm in a given sector. We show that merger intensity is positively related to structural markup growth, with a 1% increase in the proportion of cumulative mergers over 2013–18 being related to around a 0.27% increase in structural markup growth over the period from 2012 to 2019. We find that large vertical mergers are positively related to structural and materials markup growth while being negatively related to labour markup growth. Large horizontal mergers generally increase labour and structural markups.
Topic:
Markets, Economy, Industry, and Mergers and Acquisitions
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

51. Illusion or Reality: A Recontextualized Perspective of ‘the American Dream’ in Imbolo Mbue’s Behold the Dreamers

Author:
Elizabeth Adesunmbo Omotayo
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
‘The American Dream’ motif is one that has been deployed in productions of American literary icons for centuries with different outcomes for the characters portrayed. Despite a plethora of fiction being devoted to the motif from African migrants’ perspective, not many studies have explored the actualization of the Dream by characters in such texts. In Behold the Dreamers (2016), Imbolo Mbue presents the lived experiences of new African diasporans. This study looks at the outcomes of the quest for ‘the Dream’ by Mbue’s characters, through a mimetic reading of her novel and based on Harold Bloom’s notion of ‘Party of Hope’ and ‘the American Nightmare’ as exemplified in the treatments of the Dream motif by several writers. Mbue, while presenting the paradoxical notions of illusion and reality of the Dream, also portrays struggles by both citizens and migrants, to achieve the tangible and intangible of its ideals. Findings reveal that essentialization and discrimination inhibit the attainment of the Dream by many African migrants; that the attainment of college education is a huge factor in the realization of the tangible of its ideals, while the attainment of the intangible seems illusory for many migrants. The conclusion is that several factors prevent the realization of the Dream by many contemporary African migrants.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, Literary Analysis, American Dream, and Motif
Political Geography:
Africa and United States of America

52. Economic Forced Migration in Southern Africa: The Case of Malawi

Author:
Cobbener Wilfred Sungani and Pascal Newbourne Mwale
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
As with other world regions, free market capitalism or the neoliberal system has caused numerous individuals and families to lose access to viable income-generating bases in Southern Africa. This places them in a socio-economically abject and precarious position. Resource-poor and unemployed Southern Africans have for a long time been forced to migrate to less unstable economies within the region. South Africa continues to be the most attractive destination for most poor and destitute Southern Africans. These people are called ‘economic refugees’ in the dominant literature. Hitherto, the plight of the Malawian ‘economic refugee’ in South Africa has not attracted much scholarly attention. Drawing on the interdisciplinary methodologies of African social philosophy and African social history, we present the case of Malawian economic refugees in South Africa. Drawing upon ideas derived from Immanuel Kant’s analysis in Perpetual Peace (1917), this paper argues for the promotion of the spirit of fraternity between South Africans and Malawian migrants
Topic:
Immanuel Kant, Forced Migration, Economic Refugee, and Fraternity
Political Geography:
Africa, South Africa, and Malawi

53. Investigating the Vulnerability of Foreign Migrants Businesses in Durban, South Africa, During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author:
Ayobami Popoola, Hangwelani Magidimisha-Chipingu, and Lovemore Chipungu
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
There is lack of empirical evidence on the vulnerability of immigrant businesses in Durban, South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic. To investigate this, data was collected during the pandemic to evaluate the vulnerability of immigrant businesses. The research adopted the quantitative approach, with a sample of fifty-three (53) Durban city immigrants small-scale business owners, to examine their business vulnerability. A linear regression model and correlation were used to analyse the data. The findings show that business insecurity increased immigrants' business vulnerability. Thus, without underestimating the COVID-19 pandemic effect, it was evident that urban insecurity resulting in xenophobic tendencies and incidences is the main factor/determinant/predictor that increases the vulnerability of foreign businesses. The study suggests that the documentation and analysis of foreign immigrants' experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic can contribute to understanding the effects and consequences for immigrants across the globe. The study contributes to debates on immigrants' inclusion and seeks to fill the gap in the literature on immigrant business experience and survival in host communities.
Topic:
Migration, Immigrants, COVID-19, and Business Vulnerability
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

54. The Complexities of Transnational Childcare Practices among Ghanaian Families in a Context of Global Pandemic

Author:
Patricia Serwaa Afrifa
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Ìrìnkèrindò: a Journal of African Migration
Abstract:
Childcare remains central in all human societies. This is because it is in children that humans invest their immortality and ensure the continuity of humanity. This partly explains the social collectivism that is brought to bear in childcare to the extent that in some indigenous African societies, the popular axiom is: "It takes a village to raise to raise a child". While the forces of modernity, neoliberalism, and the near-collapse of the extended family system across the world, including indigenous societies, have negatively impacted collective childcare, parents continue to devise creative strategies to nurture their children. The members of the Ghanaian diaspora in the United States of America (USA) often extended invitations to older members of their families, including their mothers, to join them across the Atlantic to help with nurturing their children. This practice of transnational migration of child carers was very efficient in helping children to access Ghanaian cultural values and languages, until the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. With the outbreak of the pandemic, one way of controlling its totalizing effect was the imposition of social distance protocols, which at the peak of the pandemic involved a global ban on all means of human crisscrossing the world. This implied that most diasporic Ghanaians had their family-dependent source of childcare supply significantly cut. This phenomenon inspired the paper. Through in-depth interviews with selected Ghanaian families in the USA through social media and phones, this paper explores the impact of the ban on transnational travel on childcare practices among Ghanaian diaspora in the USA. The key findings of the study suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic did not only cripple the economies of the world, it also blocked the alternatives available to Ghanaians to receive an additional source of care for their children.
Topic:
Diaspora, Family, COVID-19, Strategy, Migrants, and Child Care
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

55. Perspectives on the 1972–1973 massacre and post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Burundi

Author:
Isidore Nsengiyumva
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
Abstract:
How do we repair and reconcile a society broken multiple times by years of political violence and cyclic mass atrocity events? Reconciliation processes in post-conflict societies tend to favour state-led peace processes to aid individuals and communities alike to heal, make sense of the past while also imagining and forging an interdependent future together. The Burundi Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC), established in 2014, has the mandate to investigate past crimes and mass violence events dating from 1885 to the 4 December 2008 ceasefire with the aim of aiding truth-telling, reconciliation and transitional justice. The paper comments on how the TRC shapes ongoing healing, reconciliation and transitional justice efforts in post-conflict Burundi. This paper uses desk-based research to draw insights from documented works and reports of the TRC between 2018 and 2022. The TRC’s findings sparked multiple narratives and public discourse in the Senate which further led to the re-examination of the 1972‒1973 massacre, the legacy of colonisation and its impact in cementing ethnic divisions that led to cyclic mass violence in Burundi.
Topic:
Transitional Justice, Colonialism, Violence, Reconciliation, Narrative, and Truth and Reconciliation
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

56. Dark Spots in the International Commodity Value Chain: The Case of Copper in Zambia

Author:
Dale Mudenda and Léonce Ndikumana
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
This paper investigates mineral export misinvoicing in Zambia as a channel of capital flight, with a focus on copper, gold, and gemstones. The analysis reveals major discrepancies between Zambia’s recorded exports and imports as recorded by its trading partners. In the case of copper, a large share of exports recorded in Zambia as headed to Switzerland does not appear in Swiss imports. The ‘missing copper’ cannot be traced through analysis of trade between Switzerland and its major partners either. Gaps in the opposite direction are observed in Zambia-China trade, suggesting export underinvoicing, a common mechanism of capital flight. These do not offset the gaps observed in mirror trade statistics between Zambia and Switzerland, which remain a mystery. Similarly, whereas the primary destination recorded for Zambian gold exports is South Africa, these do not appear in gold imports recorded by South Africa. The gemstones sector is characterized by high informality that enables smuggling and export underinvoicing. Zambia must implement measures to curb misinvoicing of mineral exports and address structural opacity in the trade value chain if it hopes to maximize the gains from the exploitation of its mineral resources.
Topic:
Political Economy, Commodities, Exports, Global Value Chains, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

57. The Congolese Fight for Their Own Wealth

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
The DRC’s vast mineral wealth contrasts with its extreme poverty, caused by exploitation and conflict. The dossier emphasises sovereignty and dignity, echoing Congolese activists’ visions for freedom.
Topic:
Poverty, Sovereignty, Conflict, Minerals, Exploitation, and Activism
Political Geography:
Africa and Democratic Republic of the Congo

58. Rethinking Community Response Against Violent Extremism

Author:
Hippolyt Pul
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
Governments of coastal states of West Africa have responded with military and non-military approaches to stem the southward drift of violent extremist groups (VEGs). However, the extent to which citizens in frontier communities are ready to engage in actions to prevent, pre-empt, protect and respond to attacks by violent extremists and terrorists (VET) in their communities remains an open question. Based on data from primary mixed methods research — in frontier communities in two administrative districts of the Upper West Region of Ghana — this paper argues that citizens’ awareness of the threats of VEGs and their preparedness to prevent, pre-empt, protect and respond to attacks by violent extremists and terrorists (VET1 ) in their communities is a mirage, as the findings from the use of the See Something, Say Something campaign is an ineffective tool for mobilizing citizens for anti-VET engagement. To engage citizens, anti-VET actors must compete with and beat the sophisticated propaganda machinery of VETs in both the traditional and non-traditional media. Critically, it is not enough to communicate facts and figures. Anti-VET messaging must move beyond the cognitive into the affective realm through incorporating the concerns, needs, and interests of citizens in the non-kinetic approaches. For communities along the frontiers, anti-VET activism must address their human and livelihood security concerns of food, income, health, and other livelihood security needs that drive their local political economy. Without this, citizens have little interest in participating in anti-VET actions that may be disruptive to their livelihood systems without the provision of alternatives.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, Countering Violent Extremism, and Communities
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

59. Place-based Policies and Household Wealth in Africa

Author:
Matthew Amalitinga Abagna, Cecília Hornok, and Alina Mulyukova
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of a prominent place-based policy - Special Economic Zones (SEZs) - on the economic well-being of African households. We compile a novel dataset on repeated cross-sections of households living in various distance bands around SEZs in 10 African countries over the period of 1990 to 2020. Exploiting time variation in SEZ establishment, the estimation yields that households in the vicinity of SEZs become significantly wealthier compared to the national average after SEZs are established. The effect is most pronounced for households within 10 km and decays rapidly with distance. We show that this result is not driven by the residential sorting of wealthier households in SEZ neighbourhoods. The rise in wealth is strongest towards the middle of the wealth distribution and goes hand in hand with increased access to household utilities, higher consumption of durable goods, higher levels of education, and a shift away from agricultural activities - patterns that we interpret as indicative of an urbanization trend and the strengthening of the middle class.
Topic:
Migration, Economic Growth, Special Economic Zones, Labor Market, Wealth, Opportunity, and Household Income
Political Geography:
Africa

60. What role for Chinese FDI in Africa? New survey evidence from Ethiopia and Ghana

Author:
Charles Ackah, Alemayehu Geda, Holger Görg, and Federico Merchan
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Foreign investments bring in not only new employment but also novel technology, managerial skill and know-how, that may also dissipate into the local economy. It is not clear whether this effect differs by the nationality of source countries, in particular between Chinese and non-Chinese firms. Based on a firm level survey on Ethiopia and Ghana, we found that all types of firms are engaged in limited R&D and innovation activity and their transfer to host countris in both countries. There is little difference between Chinese and non-Chinese foreign firms in such technology and managerial skill transfer once controlling for firm size and industry characteristics in the majority of metrices (R&D activities, horizontal & vertical spillover, directly adopting techniques). However, we found for Ghana that Chinese firms have more suppliers but are less likely to transfer technology to them. Chinese firms are more likely to transfer managerial skills than non-Chinese firms in Ghana though not in Ethiopia. Also, there is little evidence that foreign firms transfer technology via horizontal or backward spillovers in either countries. Finally, Chinese firms are much more likely to receive host country policy support than other foreign firms in Ghana but not in Ethiopia.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Technological Transfer
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Ethiopia, and Ghana

61. The Motives for Chinese and Western Countries’ Sovereign Lending to Africa

Author:
Eckhardt Bode
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper is one of the first to show systematically that the motives for sovereign lending to African countries differed considerably between China and Western countries during the last two decades. While Chinese lending mainly served its own economic or geopolitical objectives, which is well-known from the existing literature, Western countries’ lending also pursued objectives that appear to be at odds with their self-interests but whose precise nature is not yet well-understood. Using a new, da-taset on loans from China, Western countries and multilateral organizations to African countries, I empirically examine a broad variety of potential motives, aim at separating the motives pursued by the national governments from those pursued by their lending agencies, and employ an estimation strategy with increasingly complex fixed effects that yields additional interesting insights into the specificities of the motives.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, Geopolitics, and Sovereign Lending
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Global West

62. Optimal Investments in Africa’s Road Network

Author:
Sebastian Krantz
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper characterizes economically optimal investments into Africa's road network in partial and general equilibrium - based on a detailed topography of the network, road construction costs, frictions in cross-border trading, and economic geography. Drawing from data on 144 million trans-continental routes, it first assesses local and global network efficiency and market access. It then derives a large network connecting 447 cities and 52 ports along the fastest routes, devises an algorithm to propose new links, analyzes the quality of existing links, and estimates link-level construction/upgrading costs. Subsequently, it computes market-access-maximizing investments in partial equilibrium and conducts cost-benefit analysis for individual links and several investment packages. Using a spatial economic model and global optimization over the space of networks, it finally elicits welfare-maximizing investments in spatial equilibrium. Findings imply that cross-border frictions and trade elasticities significantly shape optimal road investments. Reducing frictions yields the greatest benefits, followed by road upgrades and new construction. Sequencing matters, as reduced frictions generally increase investment returns. Returns to upgrading key links are large, even under frictions.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Investment, and Roads
Political Geography:
Africa

63. Urbanized and Savvy – Which African Firms are Making the Most of Mobile Money?

Author:
Charles Ackah, Aoife Hanley, Lars Hecker, and Michael Kodom
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Our analysis of over 500 Ghanaian firms sheds light, for the first time, on how certain firms managed to extract value from mobile money. Our regressions point to the usefulness of this form of cashless payments in stabilizing sales during the COVID pandemic. Perhaps the most important message from our analysis is the recognition that the benefits from mobile money extend beyond its purpose as a tool for transacting cashless payments. We reveal that firms using these additional tools supported by MoMo (e.g. for planning or saving purposes) report higher sales resilience, all things equal. Our findings appear to echo the literature on private householders (e.g. Jack and Suri, 2014). However, while the latter report a positive effect due to remittances, our finding is more likely driven by enhanced ability of businesses to streamline their planning and sales.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, Urbanization, Money, Innovation, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Africa

64. Addressing the impacts of climate change in Africa: New urgency for international action

Author:
Maija Salonen and Antto Vihma
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The drought in the Horn of Africa in 2020–2023 and the floods in Libya in September 2023 are recent examples of climate change-induced disasters that were exacerbated by a lack of adaptive capacity. In the Horn of Africa, up to 2.7 million people were displaced by extreme weather events, and the catastrophic floods in Derna, Libya, killed approximately 11,000 people. In addition to the direct impacts, there is a need to understand the cascading impacts of climate change, which are likely to increasingly affect societal security. At present, the risks are growing faster than societal preparedness. The EU should raise political awareness of climate disasters and their cascading impacts. The ground needs to be prepared for decisive and ambitious climate change mitigation, and developed countries should offer continuous support for adaptation and capacity building.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Natural Disasters, European Union, and Climate Governance
Political Geography:
Africa

65. Greening the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement

Author:
Lionel Fontagné, Stephen Karingi, Simon Mevel, Cristina Mitaritonna, and Yu Zheng
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement aims to create a single market for goods and services, increase intra-Africa trade and promote sustainable socioeconomic development in Africa. African countries need to balance efforts to address these goals with the urgency of climate change. As of the 27th session of the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2022, most African countries had submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to mitigate the impact of climate change. Establishing a carbon market is now on the policy agenda. This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with different sources of energy (including renewable energy) and an in-depth presentation of greenhouse gas emissions to assess the economic and environmental impacts of implementing the AfCFTA Agreement and adopting various climate policies in Africa, including those NDCs and the International Monetary Fund’s proposal of carbon price floors. It shows that implementing the agreement and achieving Africa’s climate objectives are compatible. Continental coordination of emissions reduction among African countries proves most efficient for climate action.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Free Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Africa

66. Pivotal Powers 2024: Innovative Engagement Strategies for Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence

Author:
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Sharinee Jagtiani, Kristina Kausch, Garima Mohan, Martin Quencez, Rachel Tausendfreund, and Gesine Weber
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMFUS)
Abstract:
States outside the transatlantic alliance have gained leverage in international affairs in recent years and, with that, the potential to significantly reshape the global order. Engagement with these "pivotal powers", which include Brazil, Indonesia, India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Türkiye, is of paramount importance for Europe and the United States. "Pivotal Powers 2024: Innovative Engagement Strategies for Global Governance, Security, and Artificial Intelligence" offers tactics for enhancing Western cooperation on global challenges with these countries. This report builds on GMF reports from 2012 and 2023.
Topic:
Security, Governance, European Union, Geopolitics, Artificial Intelligence, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Africa, Turkey, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

67. Reflecting On Post-Electoral Disputes: A Need To Promote Living Together And The Authority Of The State In Cameroon

Author:
Kuba Abouem Perpétue
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The “years of embers” of 1990 marked the return to a multi-party system in Cameroon (Cameroon-tribune 2017), putting an end to the single-party system instituted in 1966, with the symbolic transformation of the Cameroonian Union (CU) into the Cameroonian National Union (CNU). Two major currents triggered this movement. These were upheavals on the international scene and their effects on national politics. In 1989, the fall of the Berlin Wall symbolized the end of the Cold War, perceived as the triumph of the West and “the end of history” (Fukuyama, 1992). Against this backdrop, the French President François Mitterand gave a speech at La Baule that marked the beginning of the “third wave of democratization” (Huntington, 1991). On June 20, 1990, at the 16th France/Africa Conference, France decided to make access to Development Aid conditional on the establishment of democracy, in a sort of “Democracy against Aid”. Popular demands and tensions erupted, jeopardizing security and peace. This break with the past, marked by what was seen at the time as an easing of East-West antagonisms and tensions, which had the opposite effect on the African continent. Despite its perverse effects, however, respect for democratic freedoms was reaffirmed by the African Union in 2007 in the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance.
Topic:
Democratization, Elections, and State
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

68. Political Alliances in Francophone Africa: Lessons from the Senegalese Sonko-Faye Model

Author:
Pouomegne Kamdem Prunelle Franchessa
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Over the past ten years, the political landscape of Senegal has undergone a remarkable evolution marked by the unexpected rise of Ousmane Sonko and the emergence of Bassirou Diomaye Faye as key figures on the political scene (1). As these two individuals navigate the complex dynamics of power (2), alliances, and conflicts, questions arise about the future direction of Senegalese governance. Political alliances, as defined by Giovanni Sartori in Parties and Party Systems: A Framework for Analysis, refer to the strategic cooperation between members or factions of the same political party or between different political parties, aimed at consolidating power, influencing decisions, and achieving shared objectives (3). The objective of this article is to analyze the dynamics and implications of this political rise, focusing on the partnership between Ousmane Sonko and Bassirou Diomaye Faye, particularly their ability to mobilize voters, structure an alternative discourse, and influence a political trend. By examining their collaborative efforts and the challenges they have faced, the aim is to shed light on the mechanisms of their success and draw lessons for electoral processes in Francophone African countries. This article uses a qualitative research approach, drawing on a comprehensive review of literature, political analyses, and media reports to examine the trajectories of Sonko and Faye. Through content analysis and thematic synthesis, the article seeks to identify key themes, challenges, and opportunities in their political partnership. Its structure highlights a brief history of Sonko and Faye’s political ascent, followed by an exploration of their partnership and the challenges they have faced. It then presents an analysis of their relationship and its implications for the Senegalese political system. Finally, the article concludes with practical recommendations to strengthen the legitimacy and effectiveness of elections in Senegal and the broader Francophone African region.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

69. The Role of Civil Society During Elections In Cameroon

Author:
Guy Beaudry Jengu Jengu
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In 2024, 19 African countries are organizing elections (1). More than half of these elections will take place during the last quarter of the year. In French-speaking African countries, more or less violent post-electoral crises (2) are quite common, and similar patterns observed. On one hand, the democratic openings of the 1990s either transformed single-party systems into ruling parties or brought former military personnel to power. On the other hand, the political landscape lacks robust policy platforms and ideological depth (3), and the vibrancy of civil society has rarely persisted past the 2000s. Yet, Cameroon currently has more than 50,000 entities claiming represent civil society (4). It is this civil society that is the focus of this analysis. First, the question of defining African civil society must be addressed, as its conceptualization outside of African democratic contexts and its ubiquitous usage in media make it a somewhat identifiable yet difficult to precisely define phenomenon (5). For the purposes of this work, civil society refers to an “autonomous associative sector, independent from the state” (6). Following Hegel, we distinguish it from political society, recognizing its intermediary position between prominent political actors and families (7). How does civil society deploy itself in Cameroon during the electoral period? The electoral period is divided into three distinct periods: before the election, on the day of the election, and after the election. More than 30 years after the advent of pluralist elections and multipartyism, this work aims to analyze the political, institutional and social logics that inform the practices of civil society during these moments, based on the events of the last presidential election. The objective is to uncover the actual repertoire of action employed by civil society actors during electoral periods in Cameroon, in order to identify ways to promote civic and citizen-oriented behaviors.
Topic:
Civil Society, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

70. Electoral Fraud and the Weakening Of Cameroonian Democracy

Author:
Joseph Thierry Okala Ebode
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The resurgence of democracy in Cameroon, mirroring trends across Francophone sub-Saharan Africa in the 1990s, was characterized by electoral system reforms and the introduction of multiparty elections (1). However, the outcomes of these reforms and subsequent elections have often fallen short of expectations. The March 1992 multiparty legislative elections saw opposition parties secure a majority (92 out of 180 seats), yet they were unable to assume power. Since then, despite numerous presidential and local elections, the country has seen neither a transfer of power at the highest levels of government nor the local-level changes citizens have long desired. This aspiration for political alternation continues to be thwarted by a system that consistently reinstates the same leadership. Paradoxically, despite a proliferation of political parties (2), the influence and significance of the opposition continue to wane. This diminishing role of the opposition, coupled with growing democratic disillusionment (3), can be largely attributed to electoral fraud (4). Electoral fraud encompasses any illegal actions aimed at favoring particular candidates or party lists at the expense of others. This raises a critical question: How does electoral fraud, an illegal practice, lead to the disengagement of members of the opposing political landscape, the general public, and particularly the youth, from the political process? To address this, our analysis will focus on two main areas: first, examining fraudulent practices that operate within legal loopholes, and second, investigating overtly illegal fraudulent activities.
Topic:
Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Fraud
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

71. Youth Participation in Democratic Processes in Francophone Africa

Author:
Pippie Hugues
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Youth participation in democratic processes in Francophone Africa varies significantly across countries, influenced by socio-economic factors, political dynamics, and historical contexts (1). Here are some key aspects to consider, many Francophone African countries have histories of authoritarianism or single-party dominance, which can discourage youth engagement in formal political processes. High levels of unemployment and limited economic opportunities can lead young people to prioritize immediate survival over political engagement(2). Limited access to quality education and political information can hinder youth understanding of democratic processes and their ability to engage effectively. The younger population has always been a crucial group for political mobilization during elections in Africa. With the continent experiencing a significant increase in youth population, many of whom are struggling with unemployment and underemployment, winning the support of this demographic has become increasingly vital. Despite their large numbers and the significance of generational identities in the region’s history, there remains a lack of understanding regarding the political engagement of Africa’s youth(3). The media and digital platforms play a critical role in providing information about democratic values and election procedures, fostering safe spaces for young people to participate in the political process, and reducing calls for boycotting elections and using violence to keep young people away from disobedience. This paper examines the reason for youths reluctance to participate in democratic processes in Francophone Africa and the UN/global perspective. The paper ends with the role of Election Management Bodies (EMBs) and policy recommendations.
Topic:
Governance, Elections, Democracy, Youth, and Political Participation
Political Geography:
Africa

72. Financing Innovations – Cameroonian Startups and the Rise of Alternative Funding

Author:
Adeline Nembot, Yollande Meli Tankeu, and Larissa Ntoubia
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In Cameroon, startups have always relied on personal resources and bank financing despite their heavy investment requirements. Yet, rigorous collateral and high interest rate requirements limit access to bank loans. As a result in 2021, only 15% of Cameroonian startups had access to formal funding options, while the majority relied on personal savings or informal funding sources (1), such as Informal Saving Groups and Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (ROSCAs). Moreover, according to the Central African Startup Finance Report 2022, funds raised in 2022 by startups in Cameroon remained stable year to year at 7.3 billion francs CFA ($12 million) (2). In 2023, the Africa platform’s report showing the breakdown by country of funds raised by young African startups revealed that Cameroon attracted fewer investors, raising just $4 million, far behind Côte d’Ivoire ($17 million), Senegal ($44 million), Benin ($71 million), Kenya ($88 million), South Africa ($410 million), and Egypt ($640 million) (3). This restricted access hinders startups’ potential to innovate, create jobs, and contribute to economic growth. In this context, there is a need for exploring alternative financing options, which demands a shift from traditional to emergent financing solutions.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Innovation, and Startup
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

73. The Impact of Access to credit on Women’s Entrepreneurship

Author:
Vera Kum
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
This article explores how access to credit and financial resources can help women start and grow their businesses. Anchored within the paradigm of women’s entrepreneurship empowerment and social development, we will first examine from the literature some cases of access to credit in women’s entrepreneurship. A brief analysis of the significance of financial accessibility for female entrepreneurship development follows this. Finally, we will suggest some recommendations that can help decision-makers better formulate more inclusive policies to ensure equitability between males and females regarding credit accessibility for women.
Topic:
Economics, Women, Finance, and Entrepreneurship
Political Geography:
Africa

74. A Reflection on Africa’s Democratic Future: Why Governments Need to Invest in Curriculum-Driven Civic Education

Author:
Felix Kumah-Abiwu
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Three decades into the new wave of democratic rule in Africa after the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s cannot be overlooked. Countries such as Ghana, Nigeria, Malawi, and South Africa, are a few examples of countries that have continued to make progress in consolidating their democracies. At the same time, the continent stands at a crossroads (1) given the recent increase in military coups and the growing popular support for these coups (2) in West Africa, amid other serious security challenges facing other parts of the African continent. While Africa’s challenges are not unique, as with other emerging liberal democracies, the disturbing aspect is when many Africans are losing faith in their democratic system of governance. The popular support (3) for recent military coups (4) in West Africa is one of the manifestations of this worrying trend. This policy paper discusses the “new discourse” on democratic decay in Africa, especially in West Africa. To help address some of Africa’s democratic difficulties, the paper argues that African governments need to take policy steps in investing resources in a curriculum-driven civic education to help sustain Africa’s democratic future. To properly situate the analysis into a broader context, the paper provides an overview of Africa’s socio-political landscape.
Topic:
Education, Democracy, Civic Engagement, and Curriculum
Political Geography:
Africa

75. Over-Indebtedness in Central Africa: Causes, Consequences, and Reform Strategies

Author:
Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The CEMAC region is facing a concerning situation of over-indebtedness, exacerbated by external shocks and the volatility of commodity prices. This brief aims to analyze the structural and economic causes of over-indebtedness in CEMAC countries while formulating policy recommendations to improve debt management and enhance economic resilience. Targeted at policymakers, financial institutions, and regional bodies in Central Africa, this work relies on an econometric analysis using a mixed model (Multilevel Random Effects) based on data from 2010 to 2022. Key indicators include external debt and public debt service. The findings reveal a strong dependence on external debt, while fiscal reforms have a limited short-term impact. Structural reforms are essential to reduce debt vulnerabilities. Additionally, regional coordination is recommended to improve debt sustainability through institutional reforms, increased fiscal discipline, and economic diversification. However, this analysis does not account for potential global economic shocks that could affect the region.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Reform, Diversification, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and Central Africa

76. Illicit Financial Flows in the age of Digitalisation in Africa : Opportunities and Challenges

Author:
Adeline Nembot
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
In recent years, countries have witnessed the widespread adoption of new digital technologies for financial transactions, including electronic payments, mobile and online banking, e-commerce, cryptocurrencies, and gambling services. African nations are not exempt from these financial activities, particularly illicit ones. In fact, Africa is losing approximately $88.6 billion annually due to illicit financial flows (IFFs), a sum regarded as a significant loss of development opportunities (1). Such circumstances threaten the African Union’s Agenda 2063, which aims to achieve inclusive and sustainable development across the continent (2). Illicit Financial Flows (IFF) occur when money or capital is illegally earned, utilized, and transferred across borders. Typically, this mechanism is employed with the intent to evade taxes related to trade and fiscal records. While digital technologies can be leveraged to investigate, detect, and disrupt these unlawful transfers of funds, the evolving landscape of online business can exacerbate IFFs by enabling the movement of illegal funds to fraudulent e-commerce companies and online enterprises. Therefore, it is essential to examine the extent to which digital technologies can serve as tools to either mitigate or facilitate IFFs in Africa. This article aims to explore the opportunities and challenges presented by digital technologies and digitalization in relation to IFFs in Africa. To accomplish this, I will utilize secondary data sources from existing literature, including articles, books, and reports from international organizations with expertise in this area.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, Digitalization, and Illicit Financial Flows
Political Geography:
Africa

77. Training-Employment Transition and New Digital Professions: A Solution to Women’s Employability in Cameroon

Author:
Yollande Meli Tankeu, Emilie Bitongo, and Adeline Nembot
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The primary objective of all training programs is to facilitate integration into the job market. However, the transition from training to employment—encompassing young people who study and work simultaneously, as well as those who are unemployed, underemployed, or dissatisfied with self-employment (ILO, 2020) remains a significant challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly for women. In Cameroon, the female participation and opportunity rate stands at 70.4%, which is 29.6% lower than that of men (Global Gender Gap, 2022). Nearly eight out of ten female workers are engaged in vulnerable employment, with 93% in informal jobs, and only 11% of paid workers have contracts lasting more than 12 months (Elder and Kring, 2016), from the ILO School to Work Transition Survey). Although there have been some advancements in the Cameroonian job market in recent years, the situation for women remains concerning compared to that of men. Recent advances and innovations in the digital sector present opportunities for a successful transition from training to employment, particularly for women, due to the emergence of new professions. In Cameroon, the digital economy accounted for 3.5% of GDP in 2016 (Djon, 2020). Since then, the digital sector has introduced a variety of professions, including digital marketing, community management, web writing, and blogging, which could facilitate a positive training-employment transition for women in Cameroon. However, women currently represent only 20% of digital workers in the country (Business & Finance International, 2023). This article examines the challenges of the training-employment transition for women and the emergence of new digital jobs as a potential solution to enhance their employability in Cameroon. Our analysis is structured into two parts: the first provides an overview of the training-employment transition for women in Cameroon, while the second highlights new digital professions as opportunities for improving this transition.
Topic:
Women, Employment, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

78. The Partograph: A Tool to Reduce Mother-Child Mortality Rate During Labour

Author:
Fobella Nkengafac, Regina Sinsai, Ghyslaine Bruna Djeunang Dongho, Solange Dabou, Evrard Kepgang, and Ronald Gobina
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The Safe motherhood initiative is a fundamental aspect of healthcare that was launched in 1987 with an aim to reduce maternal mortality and ensure positive birth outcomes in developing countries(1) [1]. In many parts of the world, women face numerous challenges during childbirth. As a result, maternal and child mortality remains a global concern as the rates continue to remain high with more than 69% of maternal deaths occurring in African countries with rates ranging between 500 and 999 deaths per 100 000 live births (2) [2]. These elevated rates of maternal mortality are generally attributed to complications that arise, during pregnancy, before birth, during birth or after birth, and are commonly avoidable through appropriate interventions. WHO set as part of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), to reduce maternal deaths to 70 maternal deaths per 100 000 live births (1) [1]. Despite significant progress in healthcare, complications during labour and delivery continue to contribute to a substantial number of preventable deaths. The partograph, a simple yet effective tool, has shown promising results in reducing these mortality rates during labour. Yet, its use remains relatively low in some medical facilities in Cameroon (2,3) [2,3]. This article aims to shed light on the importance of the partograph, its role in improving maternal and child health outcomes and highlights its role in reducing complications during labour.
Topic:
Women, Public Health, Healthcare System, and Infant Mortality
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

79. Liquidity Re-injection in the CEMAC Region: Balancing Effectiveness, Inflationary Pressures, and Economic Stability Prospects

Author:
Stephane Atangana
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the impact of liquidity re-injections by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) since June 2024 (1, 2) and their role in revitalizing the CEMAC region’s economy. While these measures aim to stimulate bank financing, they occur in a context marked by persistent challenges such as low financial inclusion and economic disparities within the region. The analysis highlights the need for stronger coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to maximize the effectiveness of reforms. Such coordination would regulate inflation, support economic growth, and enhance resilience to asymmetric shocks. This policy brief offers concrete recommendations, including improving credit allocation mechanisms, increasing support for SMEs, and fostering closer collaboration between BEAC, national governments, and commercial banks. In conclusion, an integrated and coordinated approach is essential to building a robust, inclusive, and sustainable regional economy.
Topic:
Fiscal Policy, Regional Economy, Liquidity, and Bank of Central African States (BEAC)
Political Geography:
Africa

80. Promoting the Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in Cameroon

Author:
Nkafu Policy Institute
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a transformative opportunity for African nations, aiming to establish a unified continental market for goods and services, enhance intra-African trade, and promote economic growth and development. As Cameroon embarks on this ambitious journey, it is essential to acknowledge the significant role that trade plays in our national development strategy. This report, titled “The Next Decade: Leveraging Trade for Cameroon’s Development,” serves as a comprehensive exploration of the policies, strategies, and partnerships necessary to fully harness the potential of the AfCFTA. In the coming decade, Cameroon has the opportunity to establish itself as a regional leader in trade and economic integration. This report emphasizes the significance of public-private partnerships and foreign direct investment as essential components in achieving this objective. By analyzing successful case studies from other countries, we can extract valuable lessons that will guide our approach to effectively implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Our commitment to strengthening infrastructure, enhancing regulatory frameworks, and promoting local industries will be crucial in creating a favorable environment for trade and investment. As we move forward, it is imperative that all stakeholders—government, private sector, civil society, and academia—collaborate to create a unified strategy that aligns with our national development objectives. Together, we can unlock the immense potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), driving sustainable economic growth and improving the livelihoods of all Cameroonians. This report serves as a call to action for all of us to actively engage in shaping the future of trade in Cameroon. Let us seize this moment and work collectively towards a prosperous and integrated African economy.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Free Trade, Regional Economy, and African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
Political Geography:
Africa

81. The State, Corporations, or the People: Who Benefits from Mining in Zambia?

Author:
Léonce Ndikumana, Dale Mudenda, and Bilen Gurara
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The expectations that Zambia’s vast endowment in mineral resources would drive economic transformation and propel the country to higher levels of living standards remain elusive. The country is still confronted with chronic macroeconomic trade and fiscal imbalances, a heavy debt burden, shortage of foreign exchange reserves with attendant pressures on the value of the national currency. The contribution of mineral exploitation to employment, government revenue, foreign exchange earnings, economic growth and poverty reduction remains suboptimal. Yet, the sector continues to attract substantial attention from foreign investors and remains dominated by foreign corporations. So, if the people of Zambia are not reaping adequate benefits from mineral resource exploitation, then who is capturing the rents? This paper provides a review of the history, industrial organization and management of the mining sector, and explores the factors that have constrained the performance of the sector with an emphasis on the role of the ownership structure, the fiscal regime, exposure to external shocks, and lack of transformational orientation of the sector. The paper draws some policy suggestions for the improvement of the performance of the mining sector going forward.
Topic:
Economics, Natural Resources, Mining, and Corporatism
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

82. The Wagner Group, Russia’s Foreign Policy and Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Kemal Mohamedou
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
Set up in 2014 as a private organisation, the Wagner Group has conducted numerous military activities internationally that remain shrouded in mystery. Through documented investigations, it emerges that the group is less akin to a traditional private military contractor and more a tool in Russian president Vladimir Putin’s military arsenal. Through its deployment in the Central African Republic and Mali, the group has gained an important foothold in sub-Saharan Africa and has furthered Russian foreign policy aims in the region, enabling Moscow to advance three key aims: (1) achieving recognition for Russia as a great power through global geopolitical repositioning; (2) undermining Western interests by building a Russian sphere of influence; and (3) enhancing Russian soft power. The historical anti-imperial Soviet advances in the post-colonial era had facilitated present-day Russian endeavours in Africa, providing a narrative for the Russian state’s foreign policy goals. While the Wagner Group has employed various political strategies to exert soft-power influence, it has also resorted to a coercive approach to suppress anti-government and anti-Russian activity. Russian advisors have developed repressive tactics, instrumentalising local state institutions and national armed forces to threaten opponents. The Wagner Group’s activities in sub-Saharan Africa have demonstrated a concerted effort to enhance Russia’s influence in the region and secure the country’s strategic interests. While Russia is not the sole external actor in Africa, the current political orientation adopted by the Kremlin towards sub-Saharan Africa can ultimately be read as a move to fragment and unsettle Western presence across the continent. In this context, the merging of paramilitary and non-military actions in Africa is of particular relevance, allowing Russia to project power, exert influence and – crucially – unsettle local state-building projects.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

83. You’re not like us! Ethnic discrimination and national belonging in Nigeria

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
This study examines how Nigerians’ experience of ethnic discrimination relates to their sense of national identification vs. ethnic identification. A regression analysis reveals that the experience of discrimination prompts Nigerians to prioritise their ethnic identity over their national identity. The regressions also show that the negative effect of discrimination on an exclusive feeling of national identification is larger than its positive effect on an exclusive feeling of ethnic identification. These findings are robust to different operationalisations of discrimination and to the use of individual level survey data covering 36 African countries. Among the Nigerian population, Igbo ethnicity increased the likelihood of individuals prioritising their ethnic identity over their national identity, while Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani ethnicities had the opposite effect.
Topic:
Ethnicity, Discrimination, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

84. ‘God is my refuge’: Do education and news consumption prompt Africans to put more trust in the COVID-19 vaccine than in prayer?

Author:
Daniel Tuki
Publication Date:
10-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Using Afrobarometer survey data covering 15 African countries, this study examines the impact of educational attainment and news consumption on Africans’ beliefs regarding whether prayer is more effective than a vaccine in preventing COVID-19. Regression results show that education reduces individuals’ likelihood of believing that prayer is more effective than a vaccine in preventing the disease. This might be because education encourages critical thinking, prompting people to believe more in science, which is evidence-based, rather than in prayer, which is based on supernatural beliefs. Likewise, news consumption reduces individuals’ likelihood of believing that prayer is more effective than a vaccine. This might be because most of the news that Africans encountered during the COVID-19 pandemic emphasised the severity of the disease and encouraged vaccination. Regression results also show that, compared to non-religious individuals, Christians and Muslims were more likely to believe that prayer is more effective than a vaccine, while those practicing ethnic/traditional religion were less likely to hold such beliefs.
Topic:
Education, Health, Religion, Survey, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa

85. Coups and social trust: Evidence from a natural experiment in Burkina Faso

Author:
Thomas Brailey, Robin Harding, and Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How do coups affect social trust? Recent years have seen a dramatic increase in the prevalence of coups, in particular across West Africa. Although significant attention has been paid to the effects of other forms of political violence and instability on social trust, to date very little research has considered how social trust is affected by coups, which represent a distinctive form of intra-elite conflict. Building on insights from work in philosophy and social psychology, we conceptualise trust as an adaptive response to vulnerability. Coups represent moments of violent competition for power between elites that create uncertainty about the state as a provider of security and essential services. Consequently, we argue that social trust will increase in response to coups, as a means of offsetting this uncertainty and insecurity. We exploit a unique natural experiment in Burkina Faso to identify the causal effect of coups on social trust, using data from a survey that was in the field during September 2022, when Burkina Faso experienced its second coup of that year. This provides robust evidence that coups can increase social trust, and further analysis supports the proposed mechanism that increased social trust following the coup was a response to uncertainty and insecurity. For external validity, analysis of cross-national survey data from the Afrobarometer series suggests that the positive relationship between coup exposure and social trust holds more broadly.
Topic:
Democracy, Coup, and Social Trust
Political Geography:
Africa and Burkina Faso

86. Economic prosperity and public backing for transparent and accountable governance in Africa

Author:
Nnaemeka Ohamadike and Emmanuel Chukwuebuka Orakwe
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Popular demands for social justice in Africa, as in the rest of the world, are often embedded in calls for better governance (Gray & Khan, 2010), which often include transparency and accountability. Przeworski, Stokes, and Manin (1999) define political accountability as the capacity of citizens to exert control over their leaders through institutional sanctions, especially through elections. Lindberg’s (2009) attempt to simplify the concept of political accountability resonates with Ohamadike (2022), who defines political accountability as the link between citizens (the principal) and government or public officials (the agents) tasked with safeguarding the rights and aspirations of the populace. This link forms a social contract upon which the agents (government or public officials) can be held accountable for their actions, with the principal having the privilege to impose sanctions on the agents, which can include removing them from their positions of power. Political transparency and accountability complement one another, but popular support for these ideals varies widely at the country level in Africa. Both ideals can be considered “matching parts” in governance (Hood, 2010). Transparency entails making government information accessible to the public, which gives citizens the knowledge needed to hold officials accountable. Accountability, on the other hand, requires that public officials justify their actions and decisions, which can be done by adhering to the citizens’ demands (Armah-Attoh, Ampratwum, & Paller, 2014). Addressing citizens’ demands is important for government to remain popular and relevant to the people. Although experts have long connected transparency and accountability with strong government performance, citizens vary in how much they prioritise or even support these concepts. One factor that might impact how citizens form these attitudes is economic well being. This question – the impact of economic performance on attitudes about accountability and transparency – is underexplored. We argue that lower levels of economic development are associated with higher citizen support for accountability and transparency. Due to the pervasive poor economic outlook in most African societies, much of the citizenry is gruelingly aware of deep-seated government corruption and poor government responsiveness to citizen needs, which they often feel powerless to tackle (Franz, 2012). Citizens of less-prosperous economies might perceive transparent and accountable governance as a means to address urgent economic issues, allowing them to get more from their government. Conversely, economic prosperity can incentivise individuals to back a government that seems to be achieving results independently, diminishing citizens’ insistence on changes, such as government transparency and accountability. This perspective emerges from trust in the government’s competence, which could cultivate complacency regarding the necessity of transparency and accountability. To test this hypothesis, we conduct a multilevel logistic regression analysis using data from the Afrobarometer Round 8 survey. We find that economic factors significantly influence attitudes. Citizenship in a prosperous African country is associated with lower support for transparent and accountable governance, whereas living in a less affluent country is associated with heightened prioritisation. This paper is structured as follows: Part 2 discusses the research methodology, covering the data, data sources, and analytical techniques. In the results section, findings from a sample of 48,084 Africans are presented. Concluding discussions follow in Part 4.
Topic:
Governance, Economy, Accountability, Transparency, and Public Banking
Political Geography:
Africa

87. Willingness of Zambians to sacrifice democratic principles during a pandemic: The case of COVID-19

Author:
Isaac Newton Bortey
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What is the impact of a pandemic on citizens’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles? Using the novel COVID-19 pandemic as a case, I assess how the effects of COVID-19 influence Zambians’ willingness to sacrifice democratic principles through censorship of the media, postponement of elections, and the use of security forces to enforce public health mandates. I analyse data from the Round 8 Afrobarometer survey in Zambia (collected in 2020 from 1,200 adults), which included questions on COVID-19. Results of a multiple linear regression and a logistic regression suggest that Zambians’ experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic have an influence on their willingness to sacrifice democratic principles. Those who lost a job due to the pandemic are less willing to accept a sacrifice of democratic principles, while positive assessments of the government’s management of the pandemic and perceptions of the pandemic as serious increase people’s willingness to suspend democratic principles. The findings also suggest that Zambians’ trust in the president and their perceptions of the government as legitimate make them more willing to agree to forfeit a democratic principle, at least when the country is faced with a pandemic.
Topic:
Health, Governance, Democracy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

88. Economic Impacts of Climatic Change on African Women

Author:
Hélène Maisonnave and Martin Henseler
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Lower access to money and assets makes women less resilient against climate change impacts, like extreme weather events (floods, drought) and scarcity of resources such as water and food. In agriculturally based economies in Africa, most women work in the climate-sensitive agricultural sectors. Moreover, women face time poverty because they are the main ones responsible for domestic work, for example, childcare, collecting water and fuel, and food preparation. At the same time, women are extremely important for the current and future economic growth in developing economies. In Africa, all these women-specific challenges apply on a continent highly exposed to the impacts of climate change but are regionally heterogeneous. Understanding the region-specific impact of climate change on women is the key to designing effective and efficient policies to counteract the negative impacts on women.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Natural Disasters, and Women
Political Geography:
Africa

89. Senegal Redefines International Partnerships

Author:
Jędrzej Czerep
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The new Senegalese authorities, who vowed radical reforms during the campaign, have begun a review of the state’s international relations. As part of this process, they plan, among other things, to renegotiate the fisheries agreement with the EU, expel French troops, and reform or leave the regional monetary union. Despite the revolutionary rhetoric, similar to that of the populist military regimes from the Sahel, the Senegalese approach to the economy and regional politics is rational and, in the long term, aligned with EU interests.
Topic:
International Relations, Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Partnerships, and Populism
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Senegal

90. The path to "controlled" immigration

Author:
Joël Dine
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
Europe needs to change its immigration policy completely. It must move from being a ‘fortress Europe’ to a Europe that organises its immigration, so that it is conducive to its economic development. It must do so in order to rediscover the human values that have underpinned its construction for nearly seventy-five years. The sight of thousands of people drowning in the Mediterranean Sea, the English Channel and the Atlantic Ocean, or abandoned in the desert or in the cities, hunted down by the police and at the mercy of traffickers and smugglers of all descriptions, is a daily affront to our consciences. In the midst of this hell in which tens of thousands of young Africans find themselves, there may be a solution. It involves organising ‘controlled immigration’ in the countries from which this immigration originates. This would mean a complete change in the European policies pursued to date. But migration is a practically insurmountable force, built into human nature. History is ample proof of that! Opposition to the free movement of people - and to the way it is currently practised - is doomed to failure. If it is possible to change the situation, then let us do it.
Topic:
Economic Development, Human Trafficking, and Immigration Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Middle East

91. Reimagining Global Economic Governance: African and Global Perspectives

Author:
Stewart Patrick, Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, and Erica Hogan
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Demand is growing for more representative and equitable global institutions that are capable of managing the risks and opportunities of interdependence—such as accelerating climate change and rapid technological innovation.
Topic:
Climate Change, Science and Technology, Governance, Innovation, International Institutions, and Equity
Political Geography:
Africa

92. A theory of discriminatory institutions, with applications to apartheid and to the political economy of migration

Author:
James P. Choy
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
Institutions in some societies force employers to discriminate. I develop a theory of institutionalized discrimination. Optimal discrimination sorts workers from different social groups into complementary tasks. Workers in the politically dominant social group benefit from complementary labor supplied by oppressed group workers, but are harmed by competition from oppressed group workers for access to non-labor factors of production. The tradeoff between these two forces determines whether ethnic cleansing, institutionalized discrimination, or free labor markets are optimal for workers in the dominant group. I apply the model to apartheid South Africa and to the regulation of migrant labor in contemporary economies.
Topic:
Apartheid, Migration, Political Economy, Discrimination, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

93. The ‘Grain from Ukraine’ Initiative – A crucial contribution to African food security

Author:
Pavlo Martyshev, Mariia Bogonos, Valentyn Litvinov, and Roksolana Nazarkina
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
This discussion paper estimates the effect of Ukraine’s ‘Grain from Ukraine’ humanitarian initiative on food security in African and MENA countries targeted by the programme. Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of agricultural produce, accounting for almost half of the world’s sunflower oil exports, 13% of corn exports, and 8% of wheat exports in the 2020/21 marketing year. While Russia’s war against Ukraine negatively affected global food security, it especially impacted African countries, since Ukraine is an essential contributor to local food security there. Of the total number of wheat and sunflower oil imports to Africa in 2021, those from Ukraine accounted for 16% and 23% respectively. Moreover, the growth of undernourishment on the continent is explained by a number of local factors: climate extremes, military conflicts, economic shocks, and disruption of food supply chains. The tight food supply in the region underscores the importance of Ukraine’s presence on the local markets. Our estimates, based on the World Food Programme methodology for calculating the number of people supported by the initiative, show that it has already supported around 16.2 million people in Africa and the Middle East over periods from 1 to 8 months. This is equivalent to feeding around 2 million people for one year. Using the acute food insecurity data from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for 2023, we calculate that the programme reduced the number of people facing moderate to strong food insecurity (IPC 3-5) by 1.4% in the African and Middle Eastern countries supported in the period from November 2022 to August 2024. Meanwhile, the number of people facing intense food insecurity (IPC 4-5) decreased by about 8% during this period. Overall, the programme has huge potential for development, which should be based on the humanitarian-development nexus that aims for a long-term reduction in hunger. Four main policy options could be considered in this respect: 1. Integrating the development programmes into agricultural production in Africa 2. Pursuing facilitation of agri-food trade with African countries 3. Increasing the supply of processed food products to low-income countries 4. Informing donors of the urgent priorities in maintaining African food security
Topic:
Agriculture, Food Security, Exports, Trade, Russia-Ukraine War, and Wheat
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Ukraine

94. The Impact of Clubfoot Intervention on Dimensions of Human Flourishing: Evidence from the Organization Hope Walks in Ethiopia

Author:
Bruce Wydick, Gianna Camacho, and Patrizio Piraino
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
We study the impact of clubfoot disability and its treatment on multiple dimensions of human flourishing among children. Working with Hope Walks, a faith-based development organization that funds clubfoot interventions in numerous countries, we use a quasi difference-indifferences approach on data collected from 564 children in Ethiopia. To generate counterfactuals to clubfoot status and treatment, we use outcomes from nearest-age siblings of children born with clubfoot nested within a family-level fixed effect. We find that clubfoot status (early treatment) results in a disability (restoration) of -1.44σ (0.91σ) in physical mobility, -1.17σ (0.79σ) in mental health, -1.07σ (0.64σ) in social inclusion, -0.48σ (0.98σ) in an education index, -0.76σ (0.42σ) in religious faith, and -1.19σ (0.79σ) in an aggregate index of human flourishing (all p < 0.05). We attribute the large, broad, and significant impacts from clubfoot treatment to (i) a highly effective medical intervention that is (ii) carried out in an impoverished setting with scarce existing support for children born with disabilities, which (3) generates spillover effects into multiple facets of human flourishing.
Topic:
Health, Disability, Human Development, and Dignity
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

95. Climate shocks and economic resilience: Evidence from Zambia's formal sector

Author:
Kwabena Adu-Ababio, Evaristo Mwale, and Rodrigo Oliveira
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Low-income countries face the combined challenges of climate shocks and limited domestic revenue mobilization, yet these issues are rarely studied together. This paper provides new evidence on the impact of climate shocks on firm performance and tax revenue in a low-income country context, using firm-level data from Zambia. We find that extreme weather events, such as excessive rainfall and high temperatures, significantly reduce firms’ sales, input purchases, and tax collection, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, retail, accommodation, and construction. Firms respond by reducing employment and wages, reflecting a decline in productivity. Our findings highlight the need to consider the combined effects of climate shocks on both formal sector productivity and government revenue in developing countries, where taxation on services and goods (e.g. VAT) represents a larger share of government budgets.
Topic:
Climate Change, Revenue, Firms, and Value-Added Tax (VAT)
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

96. Gendered effects of climate and conflict shocks on food security in Sudan and the mitigating role of social protection

Author:
Aysegül Kayaoglu, Ghassan Baliki, and Tilman Brück
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Climate change and violent conflict are defining challenges of our time. However, it is not yet understood how they interact in shaping human welfare and food security, how their interaction shapes gendered outcomes, or how social protection systems can mitigate their impact. To address these knowledge gaps, we first examine how household food insecurity relates to conflict and climate shocks and whether these associations are gender-sensitive. Second, we test what mechanisms can reduce the negative impacts of these shocks. Our empirical analysis relies on novel survey data of 7,908 rural households collected across 14 states in Sudan in 2022. Sudan currently faces floods, droughts, and violent conflict affecting agricultural production and food supply. We find that climate shocks do not significantly affect food consumption scores (FCS), while exposure to violent conflict leads to a substantial decrease in FCS. Both productive and nonproductive assets increase FCS for all households, especially female-headed households. Longer distances to agricultural input and output markets correlate with lower FCS, particularly for maleheaded households. Women’s social group membership positively impacts on FCS for femaleheaded households. However, women do not receive additional benefits from other social networks during climate and conflict exposure, while male-headed households benefit from all types of social networks. Income diversification is identified as a key strategy for improving FCS, particularly for female-headed households during conflict. Informal cash transfers significantly improve FCS, especially for female-headed households. In contrast, formal cash transfers negatively correlate with FCS, although they positively impact on male-headed households during violent conflict. Overall, we recommend targeted social protection programmes that address gender disparities and enhance resilience among vulnerable populations.
Topic:
Climate Change, Food Security, Conflict, Gender, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

97. Economic impacts of electricity supply shortages in South Africa

Author:
Hiroaki Suenaga
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This study examines the sectoral impacts of electricity supply shortages in South Africa, using the cost share information available from the 2015 social accounting matrix. A simulation conducted under each of two technological assumptions, Cobb-Douglas and Leontief, reveals that a productivity decline in the electricity, gas, steam, and hot water supply (EGSH) sector increases the price of the EGSH sector substantially, while it affects the other sectors marginally due to the small cost shares of the EGSH factor in these sectors. The total cost of supplying the baseline final demand increases by ZAR19 billion or 0.46% of the baseline gross value added (GVA) when EGSH productivity declines by 10%. This cost impact expands to ZAR150 billion or 3.57% of GVA when EGSH productivity is halved. Large shares of these cost increments are incurred by the EGSH and manufacturing sectors, owning to the direct physical impact of productivity decline for the former and a large share of its sectoral GVA in the aggregate economy for the latter. The simulation also indicates that the equilibrium wage should increase by a greater extent for workers with a lower education than for those with a higher education if the baseline final demands are to be met at the higher EGSH output price after the sector’s productivity decline
Topic:
Economy, Manufacturing, Electricity, Supply, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

98. The gendered effects of climate shocks on labour and welfare in Zambia

Author:
Alessandra Hidalgo-Arestegui, Patricia Justino, Gabriel Monteiro, Rodrigo Oliveira, and Bruce Sianyeuka
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper exploits several waves of two major nationwide representative surveys to document the impacts of climate shocks on individuals and households in Zambia. We merge these datasets with historical precipitation and temperature data at the district level. First, we show the gendered effects of the shocks, which have a higher negative impact on women. Women have a lower probability of being in the labourforce and fewer hours of work when experiencing shocks. Second, we show that households affected by climate shocks have 16% lower consumption, which is mainly explained by female-headed households. We show that social protection policies mitigate income reduction but not consumption, which may suggest that climate shocks affect households directly by reducing their income, but also indirectly by raising food prices.
Topic:
Climate Change, Labor Issues, Consumption, Gender, and Climate Shocks
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

99. Raindrop in the drought? Vulnerability to climate shocks and the role of social protection in Zambia

Author:
Katrin Gasior, Pia Rattenhuber, Adnan Shahir, and Anna Zasova
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Zambia’s reliance on rain-fed agriculture makes its economy and population highly vulnerable to frequent droughts and irregular rainfall. This paper assesses the role of social protection, specifically the Social Cash Transfer (SCT) program, in mitigating drought-induced poverty and consumption declines. Using the MicroZAMOD microsimulation model and districtlevel rainfall data, we find that rainfall shocks significantly increase poverty and reduce household consumption, disproportionately affecting the poorest households. While the current SCT program provides some relief, reforms to eligibility criteria, particularly removing the household composition requirement, could improve targeting, expand coverage, and strengthen resilience against climate-related economic shocks.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Tax Systems, Vulnerability, and Social Protection
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

100. Tax financing options for new social protection instruments: The equity implications of taxing more to expand the South African social security system

Author:
Maya Goldman and Ntuthuko Hlela
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, we use a static fiscal incidence analysis model to evaluate the poverty and inequality impacts of using fiscal policy to finance expanded social spending in South Africa. We assess three methods to enhance the social protection system’s equity objectives: increasing the size and/or coverage of the existing Social Relief of Distress grant and introducing a universal or working-age basic income grant. The implications of financing these reforms are examined using four tax instruments: increasing the value-added tax rate, increasing personal income tax rates, reducing the personal income tax primary annual rebate, and introducing a surcharge on incomes. While we discuss behavioural effects, they are not included in the model. Our analysis indicates that an expansion of the social security system financed through increased taxation could substantially reduce poverty and inequality to varying degrees depending on the taxes and transfers used.
Topic:
Poverty, Inequality, Tax Systems, Fiscal Policy, Social Spending, and Cash Transfers
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa