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Begin New Search Political Geography Africa Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 10 Years

31. China's Investment Pivot and Africa’s Industrial Prospects: Any Hope for African “Flying Geese”?

Author:
Charles Kenny
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
This paper examines the changing shape of Chinese investment in Africa, as it evolves from large scale infrastructure toward small scale manufacturing. It looks at the opportunity for the region in the context of a deepening manufacturing labor shortage in China; discusses barriers to that opportunity in both China and the Africa region; and the potential response of Western countries. It may be possible for at least some economies in Africa to benefit from a combination of Chinese investment in manufactured export and processed commodity industries and preferential access to economies including the US and China if geopolitics allow, but there are many reasons this could fail and the geopolitics are increasingly hostile. A backup plan for regional growth would be wise.
Topic:
Debt, Investment, Trade, Industry, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Africa, China, and Asia

32. Multidimensional Energy Poverty for Botswana: Does gender matter?

Author:
Thabile A. Samboma, Khaufelo R. Lekobane, and Koketso Molefhi
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
The energy-gender nexus is a topical issue that has gained traction among researchers and policymakers. Access to clean energy and gender equality are two of the most crucial sustainable development goals (SDGs) that affect households directly. Notwithstanding this, the gendered analysis of multidimensional energy poverty has been minimal in the empirical literature. Using the 2015/16 Botswana multi-topic household survey, this study investigates the gendered dimensions of energy poverty in Botswana, emphasising the disparities in energy access and affordability between male and female-headed households. We employed the Alkire-Foster (AF) methodology to compute our aggregate multidimensional energy poverty index (MEPI). Overall, we find that in Botswana, the gender gaps in multidimensional energy poverty levels are more than 10% for the poverty incidence and adjusted headcount ratio. This suggests that energy poverty in Botswana seems to be feminised. However, the gender gap in the intensity of multidimensional energy poverty is lower than 3% in favour of femaleheaded households. Finally, substantial gender gaps exist across household demographic characteristics, human capital, economic variables, and geography. The findings suggest that while Botswana has made significant progress in promoting renewable energy access through initiatives such as the Photovoltaic Rural Electrification Programme, gender-specific barriers remain. The study recommends enhanced policies that integrate gender considerations to foster equitable energy solutions, ensuring that all households, irrespective of the gender of the household head, can thrive in a sustainable and energysecure environment.
Topic:
Poverty, Sustainable Development Goals, Energy, and Gender Equality
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

33. Tobacco Control in Botswana: Effectiveness of Tax Changes in Reducing Tobacco Demand

Author:
Tshepiso Gaetsewe and Goitseone Khanie
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
Botswana has one of the highest adult tobacco-use rates in the WHO African Region. Despite measures and policies put in place to control tobacco consumption, there is still a widespread use of tobacco products in the country. This is because demand for tobacco and tobacco products is mostly affected by changes in tobacco prices and related taxes. This study therefore seeks to analyse the responsiveness of cigarette demand to price changes in Botswana. This is done by estimating the conditional price elasticity of cigarette demand using Deaton’s model and the Botswana Multi-Topic Household Survey (BMTHS) data of 2015/16. The cigarette price elasticity of demand in Botswana is estimated to be -0.86. The results indicate that a 10% increase in the price of cigarettes will reduce cigarette demand by 8.6% among smokers. These findings provide the first scientific evidence of conditional elasticity on consumption for policymakers in Botswana. These findings are expected to guide policymakers and those involved in tobacco control in formulating the most effective policies for regulating and controlling the consumption of tobacco in Botswana.
Topic:
Tax Systems, Tobacco, and Price Elasticity
Political Geography:
Africa and Botswana

34. Exploring the UN’s Interventionist Role in South Sudan: Peacemaking, Peacekeeping, and Peacebuilding

Author:
Norman Sempijja
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The role of the United Nations (UN) in conflict intervention in Africa has undergone a significant transformation, shifting from a central actor to a more supportive role. Regional organizations, such as the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), have taken the lead in mediation and conflict resolution on the continent. While the UN continues to play a crucial part in peacekeeping and peacebuilding, its role is increasingly impacted by fragmented responsibilities, regional political dynamics, and operational constraints. In assessing how these factors have influenced the effectiveness of UN intervention, this study draws the case of South Sudan. Specifically, it examines whether the UN’s peripheral role in peacemaking has directly impacted its ability to implement peacekeeping and peacebuilding efforts, or whether broader structural and political challenges are more decisive in shaping its effectiveness. By analyzing the complex interactions between the UN, regional organizations, and the realities of the conflict in South Sudan, this study argues that the UN’s limited role in peace negotiations is not the primary determinant of its success or failure. Instead, the combined effects of institutional fragmentation, competing regional interests, and the unstable political landscape of South Sudan have shaped the outcomes of UN interventions. These findings challenge the assumption that the UN’s peripheral role inherently weakens its impact, demonstrating that its effectiveness depends on how well it navigates these broader structural challenges. This study contributes to the ongoing debates on the evolving nature of international peace operations in Africa and the need for better coordination between global and regional actors to achieve sustainable peace.
Topic:
Development, United Nations, Peacekeeping, and African Union
Political Geography:
Africa and South Sudan

35. The Public Realm, Urban Protest and Peacebuilding: The #EndSARS Protests in Nigeria

Author:
Irene Doosuur Mngutyo
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Social Science Research Council
Abstract:
The potential of ‘protest sites’ for advancing peacebuilding has come under scrutiny with the global rise in popular dissent, especially as the catalytic effect of social media on protests became apparent following the Arab Spring. The symbiotic relationship between the taxonomies of space in the public realm and the potential of physical sites to act as defensible space is questioned in this paper. This is within the context of the EndSARS protests, which occurred from October 11 to 28, 2020, in Nigeria. The EndSARS protest is one example of an increasing tide of political dissent that has highlighted the links between ‘sites’ of urban protests and peacebuilding processes. Features of protest sites were evaluated using observations and measurements. Links between protest ‘sites’ were assessed from the content of four national dailies and X (formerly known as Twitter) chatter using the #EndSARS hashtag, as well as interviews withprotesters and organizers. Findings revealed that most sites used for protest activities could benefit from design imperatives to strengthen their ability to serve as defensible spaces. Recommendations focus on policy for the design of protest sites and peacebuilding.
Topic:
Protests, Urban, Peacebuilding, and EndSARS
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

36. Resolving the puzzle of "reversed favoritism" in African agriculture

Author:
Lennart C. Kaplan
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
The political economy literature highlights the redistribution of resources to political support groups - often along regional or ethnic lines - as an axiom of political systems. In contrast to this dominant pattern, Kasara (2007) documents a puzzling result of discriminatory rent extraction by political leaders from farmers in their ethnic home region. Linking a new database on the ethnic and regional affiliation of political leaders to fine-grained survey data, I disentangle ethnic and regional affiliations and show that their intersection explains the phenomenon which I will label in the following “reversed favoritism." More specifically, I provide evidence that agricultural price hikes indeed do not reduce poverty among co-ethnic farmers in the leader's birth region. My results indicate that leaders seem to act politically rational as they only apply this treatment in regions where they enjoy high trust. I show in an exploratory analysis that the counter-intuitive support of discriminatory policies can be explained by transfers in other areas, namely development aid.
Topic:
Agriculture, Political Economy, Ethnicity, Development Aid, and Favoritism
Political Geography:
Africa

37. Rethinking Aid in a Contested World

Author:
Stefan Dercon
Publication Date:
09-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Development aid faces a crisis of budgets, legitimacy, and political alignment. Framed in recent decades as technocratic and benevolent, aid has always been political, shaped by donor and recipient incentives. Its post–Cold War expansion reflected a permissive era of unipolarity and globalization, when Western foreign policy, business, and security establishments provided broad support. That equilibrium has now collapsed. Multipolar rivalry, protectionism, and fragmented domestic coalitions have left aid vulnerable, shallowly supported, and increasingly driven by narrow donor interests. The paper calls for recognition of the need for a globalization 2.0 that enables poorer countries to grow, warning that without such a framework, remaining aid will become more fragmented and ineffective. It also cautions against a euphemistic reliance on “mutual interest,” as evidence of genuine donor–recipient benefits is limited; trade facilitation and post-conflict stabilization are rare exceptions. Finally, the paper advances four propositions: aid must be selective, avoid entrenching dependency, balance short-term results with long-term system building, and support reformers willing to challenge the status quo. Only by acknowledging its political nature and aligning incentives within a reconfigured global order can aid remain relevant to development.
Topic:
Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, South America, and North America

38. Balancing the Scales of Trade: Zambia-China Relations in a Dynamic Global Economy

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Over the past two and a half decades, Sino-Zambian trade relations have transformed into a multifaceted economic partnership, evolving from foundational political alliances to a dynamic framework of economic collaboration. The diplomatic ties established on October 29, 1964, between Zambia and China provided the initial platform for engagement, exemplified by landmark projects like the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA). However, the turning point in bilateral economic relations occurred following China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, which marked a new era of global economic integration and elevated trade and investment between the two countries In this context, this paper examines the evolving bilateral trade and investment relationship between Zambia and China, highlighting key findings regarding the structural features and composition of trade. China has emerged as Zambia’s top trading partner, with Zambia mainly exporting raw mineral commodities and primary goods while importing Chinese manufactured products. Furthermore, the trade and investment structure reveal a high degree of sectoral concentration, particularly in the mining sector, which has dominated both Chinese investments and imports from Zambia. This has positioned China as a major source of foreign direct and portfolio investment, particularly in the mining sector, leaving a small fraction of their total investments going to other economic sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and tourism. Global developments such as, Climate change, the global clean energy transition and shifting geopolitical alignments are reshaping the relationship between Zambia-China trade and investment frameworks. These developments challenge traditional trade frameworks, such as the comparative advantage and gravity theory of international trade, to explain the evolving trade dynamics. China’s structural changes in its real estate market and demographic pressures from an aging population, is projected to continue shaping its future economic growth trajectory. Consequently, the second section of this paper assesses the implications of China’s economic performance on Zambia, with particular attention to shifts in Chinese investment strategies. Emerging trends suggest that policy swing toward global clean energy transition agenda will shape the future economies, especially mineral resource dependent countries. Likewise, the analysis identifies risks and opportunities associated with resource-dependent economies like Zambia, given the changing scales of trade arising from China’s gradual shift in trade and investment priorities. Therefore, this paper begins by assessing the economic relationship between Zambia and China, focusing on bilateral trade, investment flows, and auxiliary connections such as construction projects and the role of Chinese investments in Zambia. It then examines recent trends and forecasts for Zambia-China economic relations, balancing short-term cyclical factors with long-term structural developments. Finally, we conclude by outlining policy recommendations to enable Zambia to adapt to the evolving dynamics of its engagement with China, with the aim of promoting favorable balance of trade.
Topic:
Bilateral Relations, Investment, Trade, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Zambia

39. Beyond Zambia's 2020 Sovereign Debt Default

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
10-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This paper provides an analysis of Zambia’s 2020 debt default, its economic aftermath, and the policy and institutional responses that have shaped the country’s recovery. The study situates the default within a broader global and domestic context of rising debt vulnerabilities, fiscal indiscipline, and external shocks, highlighting how years of high borrowing, exchange rate volatility, and weak public financial management culminated in the crisis. Following the default, Zambia faced acute liquidity challenges, rising inflation, and restricted access to international capital markets. In response, the government pursued fiscal consolidation and institutional reforms under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF), alongside a debt restructuring process guided by the G20 Common Framework. These measures sought to restore stability, rebuild confidence, and create space for inclusive growth while prioritising social spending and debt transparency. The study analyses the debt restructuring agreements with the Official Creditor Committee and Eurobond holders, noting the inclusion of state-contingent instruments, particularly the Value Recovery Instrument (VRI) embedded in the B-bond. This clause links Zambia’s future debt service obligations to improvements in its Composite Indicator (CI)—a metric combining the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), import coverage of reserves, and global growth trends. If Zambia’s CI exceeds a threshold of 2.69, the upside payment mechanism would be activated, triggering higher coupon rates and accelerated repayments. While this offers creditors a share in Zambia’s potential recovery, it also raises sustainability concerns, as it could increase the country’s debt service burden precisely when fiscal buffers remain fragile. It, however, does not provide any safeguards against adverse shocks or unexpected macroeconomic volatility, leaving the Government exposed to budgetary stress in the event of slower-than-expected growth or external disruptions. The paper, therefore, emphasises that durable debt sustainability depends on more than restructuring; it requires sustained reforms in domestic revenue mobilisation, prudent fiscal management, and institutional capacity building. It also calls for improvements to the Common Framework to enhance timeliness, predictability, and equitable burden-sharing among creditors, thereby reducing delays, improving fairness in repayment obligations, and providing more explicit guidance for future debt restructuring efforts.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Sovereign Debt, Debt Restructuring, and Sovereign Default
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

40. Overview of Private Sector Participation in Zambia’s Energy Sector

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
Publication Date:
01-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
This document is the response of the Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR) to the request by the Committee on Energy, Water Development and Tourism of the National Assembly assigned to scrutinise Private Sector Participation in the Energy Sector. The memorandum is structured as follows: Section one introduces the purpose of the memorandum. Section two provides an overview of the Energy Sector in Zambia, while Section three delves into private sector involvement in the energy sector. Section four focuses on the threats and opportunities for private sector involvement, while Section five looks at how the private sector has contributed to energy projects in other countries. Section six delves into the benefits of private sector involvement, and Section seven concludes.
Topic:
Development, Private Sector, and Energy Sector
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia