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Begin New Search Political Geography Africa Content Type Working Paper Publication Year within 10 Years

21. Battle for the bush: Banditry and violent agrarian change in northwest Nigeria

Author:
Peer Schouten and James Barnett
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Contemporary banditry in northwest Nigeria is a multifaceted phenomenon that encompasses a wide spectrum of violence waged by heavily militarised yet loosely organised rural gangs. These groups engage in everything from cattle rustling to kidnapping for ransom and extortion of peasant communities, with bandits becoming important de facto authorities in swathes of rural northwest Nigeria. Underpinning the contemporary bandit conflict, we argue, is an ongoing ‘battle for the bush’ — a struggle over land, governance and rural livelihoods. Historically, the bush functioned as a shared space for farmers and pastoralists. However, land use data shows that the expansion of cropland farming has gradually overtaken grazing lands, reducing pastoral mobility and generating increasing conflicts. The state’s failure to mediate these tensions or provide equitable land policies, coupled with the breakdown of traditional conflict resolution mechanisms, has allowed grievances to fester. In response, bandits have violently reclaimed and reshaped the governance of the bush, not only as a refuge but as a domain of coercive rule, imposing levies on farming and controlling access to land and cattle. We examine the historical drivers of this transformation and analyse how opportunistic criminals and social bandits have evolved into de facto rural rulers. Along the way, the trend of cropland expansion is being reversed. Yet instead of reestablishing a pastoral idyll, banditry is reproducing the very conditions that gave rise to it, further undermining rural livelihoods in the northwest. This has compounded rural poverty and food insecurity while depriving pastoralist youths’ access to government services and education that could provide for a better future. Our analysis implies that the crisis cannot be solved through military interventions alone but requires a rethinking of rural governance.
Topic:
Agriculture, Land Conflict, Farmer-Pastoralist Conflict, and Banditry
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

22. Ghana’s electrification via rural mini-grids has been disappointing

Author:
Abdul-Bassit Abubakari
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Despite Ghana’s explicit plans to deploy mini-grids for the electrification of off-grid and remote communities, progress has been slow and disappointing. This paper explores how political dynamics and policy shifts have shaped the governance of mini-grids over time. It examines the evolution of mini-grids in Ghana in three phases: preliminary design stage (2007–2013); active implementation period, marked by policy modifications (2013–2019); and subsequent consolidation under a predominantly public-led model post-2019. Guided by an adapted political settlements framework and process tracing methodology, the paper argues that misalignment between the government of Ghana and donors over governance and ownership models, mediated by the country’s competitive clientelist politics, explains Ghana’s limited progress in the development of mini-grids. The paper provides nuanced insights into the complex ways transnational factors and domestic politics interact in shaping the development of mini-grids with wide implications for debates on energy governance and reform in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:
Environment, Natural Resources, Electricity, and Development Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

23. Foreign policy congruence in Africa: Evidence on free movement and free trade

Author:
Florian G. Kern, Martin C. Steinwand, and Samira Diebire
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does foreign policy of African governments reflect the preferences of their constituents? Scholars have studied public opinion in Africa and how constituents assess government performance. Yet social scientists neglect how and why foreign policy by African governments reflects public opinion, despite much anecdotal evidence of citizens expressing opinion on African foreign policy. In this paper, we investigate the congruence of governmental foreign policy positions and public opinion on issues of free movement and free trade across 34 African countries. We explore two drivers of foreign policy congruence: first democratic vs. autocratic government, and second external rents accruing from natural resources, aid, and remittances. Our descriptive evidence suggests that, on free trade, African publics tend to be more trade-sceptic than the liberalised policy positions of their governments, meaning low foreign policy congruence. On free movement, low foreign policy congruence stems from African constituents preferring more liberalisation than what governments provide. Surprisingly, multivariate analysis indicates that democracies show lower foreign policy congruence than autocracies on issues of free trade. We argue that this may be because democracies systemically oversupply market liberalisation. We cannot find an effect of external rents on foreign policy congruence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Free Trade, Freedom of Movement, and Globalism
Political Geography:
Africa

24. How China Collateralizes

Author:
Anna Gelpern, Omar Haddad, Sebastian Horn, Paulina Kintzinger, Bradley C. Parks, and Christoph Trebesch
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
This paper is the first comprehensive analysis of the secured lending practices of Chinese creditors in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We present a new dataset and detailed case studies of collateralized public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) loans from Chinese state-owned institutions in EMDEs between 2000 and 2021. Almost half of China's total PPG loan portfolio to EMDEs is effectively collateralized - amounting to $420 billion in collateralized debt across 57 countries. We document that Chinese lenders use techniques adapted from export and project finance to build multi-layered legal safety nets, which help ensure that risky EMDE loans will be repaid. As security, they use liquid, easily accessible assets, such as cash in bank accounts located in China. They rarely take infrastructure project assets as collateral, but often rely for repayment on established commodity revenue streams unrelated to the project. Typically, EMDE governments and state-owned enterprises commit to route foreign currency proceeds from commodity sales through bank accounts controlled by the lender. The cash balances in these accounts can be very large; in low-income, commodity-exporting countries, they average more than 20% of annual PPG debt service to all external creditors. The same revenue source can secure multiple successive borrowings over many years. Our findings reveal a previously undocumented pattern of revenue ring-fencing, where a significant share of commodity export receipts never reaches the exporting countries. Revenues routed overseas secure priority repayment for the creditor; they remain out of public sight and largely beyond the borrower’s reach until the secured debts are repaid. These findings raise new concerns about debt transparency, fiscal management, fiscal autonomy, and the quality of macroeconomic surveillance, particularly in commodity-exporting EMDEs.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Financial Markets, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Asia, and Americas

25. Identifying Mutual Interests: How Donor Countries Benefit from Foreign Aid

Author:
Tobias Heidland, Maximilian Michael, Moritz Schularick, and Rainer Thiele
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
Official development assistance (ODA) is widely studied for its impact on recipient countries, but its effects on donor countries remain underexplored. To address this gap systematically, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding when foreign aid generates measurable returns for donor countries as well as those cases when donor and recipient interests align—what we term mutual interest ODA. We categorize potential donor benefits into three domains: economic, geopolitical, and security-related, and distinguish these benefits by their timing and degree of directness. We then systematically survey the empirical evidence on donor benefits, assessing the empirical credibility and magnitude of estimated effects and pointing out research gaps. We find consistent evidence of substantial donor benefits across all three domains. A key insight is that aggregate aid flows often mask significant variation: The returns to donors depend critically on the type of aid, delivery modality, and recipient context. These findings have important implications for both academic and policy debates on the effectiveness, political sustainability, and future direction of development aid.
Topic:
Climate Change, Globalization, Health, International Trade and Finance, Migration, Political Economy, Foreign Aid, and Sustainable Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, Asia, and Americas

26. Africa’s Faustian Bargain with the International Monetary Fund

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
Decades of IMF interventions have locked African nations into cycles of debt, austerity, and economic dependency, stifling real development while reinforcing neocolonial control over the continent’s financial sovereignty.
Topic:
Debt, Development, International Monetary Fund, Austerity, Economic Dependence, Neocolonialism, and Financial Sovereignty
Political Geography:
Africa

27. The Bandung Spirit

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
In 1955, the leaders of former Global South colonies met in Bandung, Indonesia, brought together by a common spirit for national liberation and cooperation. Seventy years later, is there any trace of it left?
Topic:
Development, International Cooperation, History, Global South, and Internationalism
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, and Asia

28. The Sahel Seeks Sovereignty

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
08-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
On the heels of popular military coups, how are Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger returning to a path of sovereignty while navigating a legacy of dependency and internal-external security challenges?
Topic:
Security, Development, Sovereignty, Coup, and Economic Dependence
Political Geography:
Africa, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Burkina Faso

29. Understanding Uganda’s (ambiguous) actions in Eastern DRC: Military interventions to protect roads and trade?

Author:
Kristof Titeca and Giovanni Salvaggio
Publication Date:
06-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
Abstract:
Much attention has been given to the role of Rwanda in the conflict in Eastern DRC, and its support to M23. Much less attention has been given to the role of Uganda. In this briefing, we aim to fill this gap. We will show how that Uganda’s presence in Eastern DRC has strong economic under- and overtones: much of Uganda’s actions are centered around protecting trade and roads in Eastern DRC. This builds on historical relations between Uganda and Congolese traders – particularly the Nande and Hema business community – with whom it had been discussing these issues in the years prior to their military intervention. In doing so, Uganda primarily protects its own interests, and has ambiguous relations with all key-actors in the conflict – M23, Kigali and Kinshasa. We will show this by first explaining the broader history of economic relations between Uganda and Eastern DRC, and second, link this to its current actions.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, Trade, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Central Africa

30. Urban Refugee Policies and Legislation in Kenya and Uganda: 2025 Stocktake

Author:
Thomas Ginn and Harrison Tang
Publication Date:
05-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Policy for urban refugees in Kenya and Uganda is rarely at the forefront of national discussions, leaving important gaps that could potentially be addressed with engagement from civil society. Based on a series of key informant interviews, this policy paper provides a stocktake of recent shifts in policies, legislation, and practices impacting urban refugees in both countries since 2022. We document several changes, most notably the inclusion of urban refugees in Kenya’s national social security scheme and in local government councils in Kampala, but these initiatives are yet to be scaled. We recommend that organizations advocating on behalf of urban refugees focus directly on access to documentation and, more broadly, prioritize concrete objectives that are achievable under current law.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Displacement, and Resettlement
Political Geography:
Uganda, Kenya, and Africa