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  • Author: Zainab Usman, David Landry
  • Publication Date: 04-2021
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Many African countries have placed economic diversification high on the policy agenda, yet they first need to define what it means in their specific structural and socioeconomic contexts. For decades, economic diversification has been a policy priority for low- and middle-income economies. In the words of former managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Christine Lagarde, “We know that economic diversification is good for growth. Diversification is also tremendously important for resilience.” Unfortunately, this goal continues to elude many African countries. In fact, the continent is home to eight of the world’s fifteen least economically diversified countries. This reality weakens the foundation of their economic transfomation and slows their pace of progress. It also makes these countries particularly vulnerable to sudden external shocks, as the pandemic-induced disruption of tourism and oil-dependent economies has illustrated. Given the importance of diversifying African economies, it is critical to recognize how various dimensions of diversification can have different implications for the menu of policy options. Closely associated with the process of structural transformation from lower to higher productivity sectors, economic diversification has three evident dimensions. The first relates to the expansion of economic sectors that contribute to employment and production or gross domestic product (GDP) diversification, and the second is associated with international trade or exports diversification. This paper, however, focuses on a third dimension that the economics literature pays scant attention to: fiscal diversification. This fiscal element involves expanding government revenue sources and public expenditure targets and can therefore play a central role in helping to catalyze broader economic transformation through the expansion of activity in specific industries and sectors. It is also critical that policymakers effectively measure the extent to which this objective is being achieved. Both the expansion of existing economic sectors and the creation of new ones may diversify an economy. But these processes are vastly different in practice and will garner distinct outcomes. Of the main tools used by economists to measure diversification, the Theil Index differentiates between the respective contributions of new economic sectors and existing ones to overall diversification. Another tool widely used by development practitioners—the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) framework—has significant potential for evaluating fiscal diversification but would need to capture more information on government revenue collection and spending and link them to policy objectives.
  • Topic: Economics, Governance, Diversification, Trade
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Robert Bakiika, Christine Mbatuusa, Anthony Mugeere, Anna Amumpiire
  • Publication Date: 04-2021
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This report seeks to contribute to informing the mobilization of climate finance in light of the climate change impacts across all sectors. The report highlights the operating policy, legal and institutional framework on public climate finance, makes reference to country case studies on climate finance mobilization, proposes various options for climate finance mobilization based on stakeholders consulted and ranks the most efficient option.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Governance, Finance, Mobilization
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Loubna Marfouk, Martin Sarvas, Jack Wippell, Jintao Zhu
  • Publication Date: 07-2021
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Afrobarometer
  • Abstract: This paper explores the presence of politically sourced sensitivity bias, which leads respondents to report alternative answers to their true beliefs, in Afrobarometer’s survey results. To this end, we run a set of regressions on Afrobarometer Round 7 data to explore mechanisms through which the perceived sponsor of the survey is associated with response patterns related to trust in political parties. Questions regarding individuals’ trust levels in political parties are prone to sensitivity bias insofar as political concerns can lead respondents to favour a certain response for strategic reasons. Moreover, if respondents believe that answers will be shared with the perceived sponsor of the interview, they are likely to tailor their answers to what they judge is the preferred answer of their perceived survey sponsor. We find a number of statistically significant results that suggest some sensitivity bias is present in the survey responses. In particular, we show that there are statistically significant differences in responses for self-reported trust in both opposition and ruling parties when the respondent perceives the government to be the survey sponsor compared to when they perceive the sponsor to be Afrobarometer. We also explore how these responses vary by country- specific characteristics, such as regime type. Reducing respondents’ variation in perception of the survey sponsor might alleviate biases throughout Afrobarometer’s interviews, and a set of methodological changes might mitigate the effects of this sensitivity bias in future surveys. While other studies have focused on potential bias from interviewer effects, our research suggests a new avenue for research, in Africa and beyond, on respondent perceptions of sponsorship.
  • Topic: Governance, Research, Political Parties, Survey
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Hans Hoebeke
  • Publication Date: 03-2021
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
  • Abstract: Two years after the peaceful transition that ended the presidency of Joseph Kabila, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is experiencing another decisive turn. After a long-drawn-out fight, President Felix Tshisekedi has skilfully turned the tables on his predecessor, whose position had seemed impregnable. In a series of reversals, former President Kabila’s political platform, the Common Front for the Congo (FCC) lost control over the judiciary, the two chambers of parliament and the government. On 15 February 2021, President Tshisekedi appointed his prime minister, Sama Lukonde Kyenge, who will head a government of the new Union Sacrée de la Nation (USN) coalition. These are undoubtedly major steps forward. But while breaking the Kabila-system’s hold on the Congolese state is a necessary condition for change, it is only the beginning. President Tshisekedi, the incoming government and other forces for change are now in a unique position to renew governance practices and govern in the interest of the Congolese people. This Egmont Paper analyses the recent polit- ical developments in the DRC and identifies the main priorities and challenges facing President Tshisekedi and the country.
  • Topic: Governance, Leadership, State Building, Transition
  • Political Geography: Africa, Democratic Republic of Congo
  • Author: Clement Mutambo
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on International Policy (CIP)
  • Abstract: Fragile states are nations whose institutions of governance are highly susceptible to corruption, deception, and bias. According to the Fund for Peace, the vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa countries qualify as moderately to severely fragile states. Why? Because African institutions are weak and dysfunctional, and leaders manipulate their systems with impunity. If the fragility fiasco is to be changed, African people need to realize that neither their leaders nor international observations can fix the issue; only the people hold the power to determine their future. Despite the tumultuous conditions in many nations in the Sub-Saharan continent, there is hope. The recent Malawian election demonstrated that despite weak local institutions and inadequate support from the international community, change can be made if citizens unite and demand accountability for corruption and abuses of power. When Malawians realized the outcome of their late 2019 presidential election was rigged, they took matters into their own hands. Even though six international observers, including the United Nations Development Program, Southern African Development Community, European Union, and African Union, argued that the elections were free and fair, overwhelming evidence of ballot tampering suggested otherwise.
  • Topic: Governance, Elections, Fragile States, Courts
  • Political Geography: Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Institute for Strategic Studies
  • Abstract: Since the early 2010s, increased volatility in the Sahel has aroused widespread concern, spurring the establishment of regional and international groupings to deal with the many security and governance challenges that have undermined stability in the region. Among those efforts were the creation of the G5 Sahel cooperation framework (2014), the G5 Sahel Joint Force (2017), the Sahel Alliance (2017) – and more recently, in June 2020, the International Coalition for the Sahel, to tackle instability in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. Those five countries are the focus of this paper.
  • Topic: Security, International Cooperation, Governance, Humanitarian Crisis
  • Political Geography: Africa, Mali, Chad, Mauritania, Niger, Burkina Faso
  • Author: Fadi El-Jardali
  • Publication Date: 04-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
  • Abstract: In the Arab region, countries have become increasingly dependent on non-state actors, notably the private sector, for healthcare provision and any response that includes the State alone may not be sufficient to address the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper explores how state and non-state actors in Arab countries have collaborated so far and suggests ways forward to ensure quality healthcare services for all.
  • Topic: Non State Actors, Governance, Health Care Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: Africa, Middle East
  • Author: Eya Jrad
  • Publication Date: 04-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
  • Abstract: With COVID-19, Tunisia is dealing with an unprecedented emergency that is testing its newly established democratic institutions. This paper explores how Tunisia’s different institutions have responded so far to the crisis, and sheds light on how each is trying to assert its role under the exceptional circumstances imposed by the pandemic.
  • Topic: Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tunisia
  • Author: Zied Boussen
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
  • Abstract: After months of negotiation, Tunisia’s parliament voted in a government like no other since 2011. Headed by a prime minister whose party is not represented in parliament and with more than half of the ministers independent or new to government office, it is the first since 2011 that is not a “national unity” government. This paper examines this new Tunisian political landscape, the relationship between the prime minister and Tunisia’s president, and looks at the impact of this configuration on the ability of the new government to carry out long-awaited reforms.
  • Topic: Governance, Reform, Political stability, Transition
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tunisia
  • Author: Alessandra Bajec
  • Publication Date: 07-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
  • Abstract: Despite being rich in oil and gas, Tataouine in the south of Tunisia has remained severely underdeveloped and marginalized, pushing its inhabitants, time and again, to protest for reinvestment of its wealth in infrastructure and local jobs. This paper examines the underlying drivers of the ongoing unrest in Tataouine, the heavy-handed response of the security forces, and the successive Tunisian governments’ broken pledges to address the region’s socio-economic marginalization.
  • Topic: Governance, Accountability, Marginalization, Socioeconomics , Civil Unrest
  • Political Geography: Africa, Tunisia
  • Author: Jenny Tröltzsch, Nadine Gerner, Franziska Meergans, Ulf Stein, Robynne Sutcliffe
  • Publication Date: 01-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: German Development Institute (DIE)
  • Abstract: South Africa’s water legislation is recognised for its ambitious adoption of Integrated Water Resource Management. However, implementation is hindered by conflicting hierarchical and network-based governance styles and lack of coordination between western administration and traditional authority.
  • Topic: Natural Resources, Water, Governance
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa
  • Author: Adedeji Adeniran, Idris Ademuyiwa
  • Publication Date: 07-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre for International Governance Innovation
  • Abstract: The growth of digitalization and digital technology adoption in Africa holds the key to strengthening and diversifying economies across the continent. Although these developments offer potentially life-changing benefits for consumers, businesses and governments, the inherent flaws in the digital market mean these benefits are not guaranteed. As most gains from the digital economy are largely concentrated in the United States and China, the digital divide may widen the gap between the Global North and the Global South.
  • Topic: Economics, Governance, Digital Economy, Digitalization
  • Political Geography: Africa, Global South
  • Publication Date: 03-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This memorandum seeks to contribute to the on-going ammendment to the Local Governments Act. The memorundum is based on the research, capacity building and outreach activities that ACODE has implemented in Local Governments over the last 10 years. This is very timely in view of the fact that MoLG has recently been granted a sector status, the Local Government Sector.
  • Topic: Governance, Budget, Public Policy, Local
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Arthur Bainomugisha, Jonas Mbabazi, Wilson Winstons Muhwezi, George Bogere, Phoebe Atukunda, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Oscord Mark Otile, Fred Kasalirwe, Rebecca N. Mukwaya, Walter Akena, Richard Ayesigwa
  • Publication Date: 03-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This eighth national Local Government Councils Scorecard report presents findings and results of the performance of elected political leaders at the district levels during the Financial Year 2018/2019. The Local Government Councils Scorecard FY 2018/19 report takes stock of where Uganda is on the road to full realization of the vision of decentralization and recommends a broad array of steps that would take the country much closer to that destination. The Scorecard methodology is unique in that it combines capacity-building and evidence-based assessment of elected local government leaders in a way that both strengthens local government institutions and holds leaders accountable for delivering the public services to which citizens are entitled. The methodology, described in this book, also incorporates an innovative civic engagement action planning process that builds capacity among citizens to use the tools of civic engagement to demand that public services are delivered.
  • Topic: Governance, Leadership, Local, Decentralization
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Jonas Mbabazi, Phoebe Atukunda
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This report analyses the socioeconomic implication of new cities in Uganda. The operationalization of new cities requires office structures, staff and other administrative resources that are vital for daily operations. These come with a hefty price tag that can only increase public administration expenditure. Besides the start-up funds, the administrative units require operational funds to enable them to implement their mandate as stipulated in the Local Government Act, 1997. Some of the responsibilities under their mandate include service delivery, governance and administration.
  • Topic: Development, Governance, Urbanization, Urban, Local
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Ramathan Ggoobi, Daniel Lukwago
  • Publication Date: 07-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This study was a follow-up of the 2019 study intended to examine the Budget Framework Paper (BFP) and the National Budget Estimates for FY 2020/21 to identify the budget lines for devolved services that had been allocated to Central Government MDAs. It was intended as strategy for advocacy for increasing the financing of LGs in the FY 2020/21 national budget.
  • Topic: Governance, Budget, Finance, Local
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Emmanuel Keith Kisaame, Richard Ayesigwa
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This report presents findings of the Budget and Service Delivery Monitoring Exercise (BSDME) carried out in 26 districts. The BSDME largely focuses on three basic aspects, namely, the display of information on transfers at service delivery units, payroll & pensions, timeliness in receipt of funds, and quality of services including challenges. This round of BSDME specifically focuses on the quality of district and community roads that make up the largest proportion of Uganda's road network. The exercise sought to assess the quality of these roads, the capacity of districts to undertake road maintenance, and the challenges they face.
  • Topic: Infrastructure, Governance, Budget, Local
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Susan Namirembe Kavuma, Assumpta Tibamwenda, Elijah Dickens Mushemeza, George Bogere, Lillian Tamale, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Jonas Mbabazi
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This report presents the findings and discussions of Local Economic Development (LED) practices in nine districts of Northern Uganda that included: Adjumani, Amuru, Arua, Kitgum, Lira, Omoro, Oyam, and Yumbe. The analysis provides insights into implementation of LED policies, and the level of preparedness of the districts to implement the policy as a tool for economic transformation and development. LED was conceptualised as a process or development model where Local Governments, the private sector, and the community, are jointly and collectively engaged in identification, mobilization and management of resources at the local level. LED is therefore intended to create conducive environments for investment, increased household incomes, and higher revenues for Local Governments.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Governance, Local
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Ramathan Ggoobi, Daniel Lukwago, George Bogere
  • Publication Date: 10-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This study examines how funds in the roads sub-sector were allocated and managed during the Fiscal Year 2015/16-2018/19. The aim is to assess the impact of these investments, and the effectiveness of the planning, budgeting and execution and plans and budgets in the roads sub-sector. The study was motivated by government priority tagging of the Road Sector as "fundamental" for the achievement of the Uganda Vision 2040. Consequently, the roads have claimed the largest share of the national budget over the last decade. However, Uganda's road transport network is still very small by international standards, with only 21.4 percent of the national road network paved. Only 0.4 percent and 5.6 percent of the district and urban roads respectively, are paved. Despite continuous investment in the Road Sector with an average of 17 percent of the annual national budget over the last decade, there are reports of persistent public outcry about the poor state of roads and the deteriorating quality of works being executed.
  • Topic: Infrastructure, Governance, Public Policy, Roads
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Onesmus Mugyenyi, Dickens Kagarura
  • Publication Date: 11-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: Law making process by local governments is a challenging task in Uganda largely due limited skills at the local government level. the publication of these guidelines, therefore, is intended to simplify the process of law making by providing step by step procedure of making ordinances by district councils and byelaws by lower local governments. These guidelines are based on the Local Government Act, and the Handbook on Making Ordinances and Byelaws in Uganda (Second Edition-2010) by the Uganda Law Reform Commission.
  • Topic: Government, Governance, Law, Local
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Jonas Mbabazi, Fred Kasalirwe
  • Publication Date: 12-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This policy brief is a product of the assessment of the performance of the COVID-19 District Task Forces (DTFs) in Uganda. This study on the performance of the COVID-19 District Task Forces was conducted under the Local Government Council's Scorecard Initiative (LGCSCI), a social accountability project implemented in 35 Districts in Uganda. The main objective of the study was to establish the determinants and level of performance of District COVID-19 Task Forces to enhance their effectiveness.
  • Topic: Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Wilson Winstons Muhwezi, Jonas Mbabazi, Fred Kasalirwe, Phoebe Atukunda, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Oscord Mark Otile, Rebecca N. Mukwaya, Walter Akena
  • Publication Date: 12-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
  • Abstract: This report is an important assessment of the performance of the DTFs in implementing the COVID-19 pandemic containment plan. As the world is faced with the unprecedented challenges from COVID-19, the strain on many governments is extreme, and the impact on people all over the world continues to grow. Indeed, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the social and economic structures of service delivery with significant consequences on lives, livelihoods and general economic development. As part of the response mechanism to contain and manage the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Uganda instituted national and sub-national COVID-19 task forces to implement and manage the COVID-19 pandemic containment and recovery measures. The Presidential Decree on COVID-19 recognizes the Central Government's role in the provision of healthcare and security. District Taskforces (DTFs) were put in place to support Central Government's containment of COVID-19 and implementation of the GoU COVID-19 containment styrategies of case management, surveillance, health promotion, resource mobilization, enforcement of standard operating procedures (SOPs) and continued delivery of basic services.
  • Topic: Governance, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: Uganda, Africa
  • Author: Matthias Krönke, Sarah J. Lockwood, Robert Mattes
  • Publication Date: 10-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Afrobarometer
  • Abstract: The conventional view holds that most of Africa’s political parties are organizationally weak, with little grassroots presence. Yet few studies are based on systematically collected data about more than a handful of parties or countries at any given point. In this paper, we focus on one crucial aspect of party organization – the local presence that enables political parties to engage with and mobilize voters – and use Afrobarometer data to develop the Party Presence Index, the first systematic, cross-national measure of local party presence in Africa. We then apply the index to a series of substantive questions, confirming its value and demonstrating its potential to add significantly to our understanding of grassroots party organization.
  • Topic: Governance, Democracy, Local, Political Parties, Community
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Brown Odigie
  • Publication Date: 03-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: On August 18, 2017, opposition1 figures in the Republic of Togo, a member-state of the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS), took to the streets to protest the continued rule of Faure Gnassingbé, the incum- bent president of the country who has spent 14 years in power. They demand- ed constitutional reforms, and in particular, a return to the 1992 constitu- tion, which would, bring back a constitutional provision limiting presidential tenure to two-terms of five years only. Other reforms demanded included a demand for a two-round system2 for presidential elections, reform of elec- toral laws and the election management body, review of the voters’ register, as well as voting rights for Togolese nationals in the diaspora. In a quick progression of events, the protesters made additional demands including one for an immediate end3 to the regime of Faure Gnassingbé, whose family has been accused of institutionalizing dynastic rule starting with his father, Gnassingbé Eyadéma, who ruled the country from 1967 till his death in of- fice on February 5, 2005. For several months, on regular intervals, leaders of the opposition and civil society groups mobilized different social groups including youths and women to continue to make these demands on the government. occasionally in violent demonstrations that led to public disor- der, looting ofOccasionally these protests degenerated into violent demon- strations that led to public disorder, looting of private and public goods, and loss of lives. The initial reaction of the government was to crack down on the protesters, using state apparatuses of force to shut down the internet, which was crucial for mobilization, arresting4 a number of activists on the streets of Lomé, the country's capital. The protests, however, continued as protesters were undeterred,5 and soon spread to the country’s second larg- est city of Sokodé in the central region. Following persistent demonstra- tions and calls by the international community, notably, ECOWAS, France, the United Nations (UN), the European Union (EU), and the African Union Commission (AUC) for an immediate dialogue in resolving the impasses, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé finally accepted to dialogue and negotiate with the opposition. Leveraging on a preventive diplomacy conceptual framework of analysis, this paper highlights the nuances and the herculean task of mediating po- litical conflicts by regional organizations such as ECOWAS. It does so es- pecially in relation to preventing protests from escalating into violent con- flict, navigating deadlocks, and achieving concessions on important political and constitutional matters that might alter the existing power equation. It analyses the spate of criticism that trailed ECOWAS’ mediation of the cri- sis during a period the Togolese president, Mr. Faure Gnassingbé, was the Chair of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of ECOWAS (June 2017 to July 2018) as well as the efforts to maintain impartiality by the Fa- cilitators appointed by ECOWAS to assist the government and opposition stakeholders to negotiate a political settlement and implement constitu- tional reforms. The paper also raises questions about the rationality of the decision of the coalition of fourteen opposition parties (C14) to boycott the December 20, 2018 legislative elections, noting that the election boycott hardly achieved its intended purpose of delegitimizing the government. It, however, com- mends the ability of the opposition to learn key lessons from the boycott, and emphasizes the imperative for both the government and the opposition parties to continue exploring avenues for inclusive dialogue in addressing unresolved contentious issues, not only with respect to the immediate 2020 presidential elections, but more importantly, efforts at expanding the polit- ical and civic space and strengthening the role of civil society organizations in democratic processes in the country. The paper concludes by extolling the steadiness and the resilience of West African citizens in demanding for, and, or defending constitutional provisions that limit presidential tenures. It also notes that such vigilance and resilience are needed if democratic cul- ture and good governance are to be deepened in the region.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Diplomacy, Governance, Peace, Mediation, Political Crisis
  • Political Geography: Africa, West Africa, Togo
  • Author: Thabile A. Samboma
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
  • Abstract: Botswana is faced with many challenges of project implementation. Since independence detailed projects and programmes were initiated, with limited and often less developed state capacity to implement them. This study focuses on challenges of project implementation in Botswana’s tier of local government. A qualitative case research method approach was employed to undertake the study. Telephonic interviews were conducted with politicians and employees from Francistown City Council (FCC) and Kweneng District Council (KDC) and data was analysed using thematic analysis. The paper outlines project implementation challenges in Local Authorities (LA). For instance, lack of capacity, lack of commitment by the District Development Committee (DDC), poor stakeholder engagement and lack of financial autonomy by councils. Some of the identified implementation challenges are not peculiar to the two LAs but cuts across local authorities in Botswana. However, low human capacity in local authorities was cited as a major problem in project implementation.
  • Topic: Governance, Elections, Domestic politics, Local, State Funding
  • Political Geography: Africa, Botswana
  • Author: Vladimir Chlouba
  • Publication Date: 07-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Afrobarometer
  • Abstract: Do African traditional leaders weaken state legitimacy at the local level? Past scholarship raises the possibility that unelected chiefs might undermine trust in national-level institutions. Relying on an original map of areas governed by chiefs and survey data from Namibia, this study examines whether respondents governed by traditional leaders are less likely to trust state institutions. I find that compared to individuals not living under traditional authority, chiefdom residents are more likely to trust government institutions. To partially alleviate the concern that chiefdom residence is endogenous to trust in national-level institutions, I use a genetic matching strategy to compare relatively similar individuals. I further find that the association between chiefdom residence and trust in state institutions is considerably weaker and less statistically significant for individuals who do not share ethnicity with their chief. This evidence suggests that traditional leaders’ ability to complement state institutions at the local level is compromised by ethnic diversity.
  • Topic: Government, Governance, Leadership, Fragile States, Emerging States, Legitimacy, Institutions
  • Political Geography: Africa, Namibia
  • Author: Basel Ammane
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Council on International Policy (CIP)
  • Abstract: News stories about the Ogossagou massacre that killed more than 161 people, the death of Malian soldiers at the hands of jihadi terrorists, as well as the resignation of the Malian Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubèye Maïga hardly paint a picture of progress towards inter-communal peace in that country. In fact, an analysis of MINUSMA (the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali) attributed the continued instability to the low ranking of ‘protection of civilians’ on the list of priorities for that mission. In other words, it assessed that the situation was so dire that it required substantial changes to the framework of the operation for tangible improvement to materialize. Yet despite UN overtures and the “bad optics” of leaving before replacements have arrived, the Canadian government has been adamant about its objections to extending the mission in the West African country beyond July, citing its previously-set duration for the mission of one year. With less than three months remaining till the end of Operation PRESENCE, Canada’s contribution of peacekeeping efforts under MINUSMA, it is worth reflecting on the significance of this endeavour and attempting to understand the limitations that shaped it and have come to define it. The announcement of the mission came on the back of the Liberals’ success in the 2015 federal election which was preceded by a campaign that prominently featured the idea of returning Canada to its place as a country heavily involved in peacekeeping. Unfortunately, though, exclusive involvement in this peacekeeping mission falls massively short of campaign promises to commit up to 600 troops to such missions. Moreover, many experts have voiced their concerns about lack of progress in Mali and the need for a stronger commitment in terms of resources, but their pleas have fallen on deaf ears. Does that reflect a downgrading of peacekeeping as an international security priority for this government? There is evidence that suggests this is the case. A brief look at the Department of National Defence spending plans for 2019-2020 is sufficient to reveal the movement of funding to other operations. The most prominent of such operations are Operation LIMPID, REASSURANCE, and FOUNDATION. Operation LIMPID refers to CAF efforts to counter threats to the country sovereignty in a variety of realms including land, maritime, space and cyber domains; operation REASSURANCE deals with shoring up NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe to assure these countries of its support, while operation FOUNDATION deals with counter-terrorism efforts in the Middle East, North Africa, and South West Asia. So what accounts for this shift?
  • Topic: United Nations, Military Strategy, Governance, Civil-Military Relations
  • Political Geography: Africa, Mali
  • Author: Karolina Eklöw, Florian Krampe
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Climate-related security risks are transforming the security landscape in which multilateral peacebuilding efforts take place. This policy paper offers a glimpse into the future of peacebuilding in the time of climate change by providing an in-depth assessment of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM). Climate-related change in Somalia has reduced livelihood options and caused migration. It has also left significant parts of the population in a vulnerable condition. These climate-related security risks contribute to grievances and increase inequality and fragility, which in turn pose challenges to the implementation of UNSOM’s mandate. The impacts of climate change have hindered UNSOM in its work to provide peace and security in Somalia and in its efforts to establish functioning governance and judicial systems. UNSOM has responded to the growing impact of climate-related change. It has learned lessons from previous failed responses—notably the 2011 drought—and has created innovative initiatives that have been effective. While there is still room for improvement, UNSOM’s new initiatives may help to deliver a set of responses that meet the short-term need for a rapid humanitarian response and the long-term objective of achieving a sustainable and resilient society. The challenges faced by UNSOM and its responses to them have wider implications. They suggest that there is a need for synergetic policy responses that can turn the responses to climate-related security risks into opportunities for UN efforts to sustain peace.
  • Topic: Security, Climate Change, Migration, Governance, Risk, Peace
  • Political Geography: Africa, Somalia
  • Author: Bright Simons
  • Publication Date: 03-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Global Development
  • Abstract: Just before the yuletide of 2018, I arrived in my native Ghana after one of my long spells away. I flipped out my phone, opened Uber, and tried to flag a ride from inside the shiny new terminal of Accra’s international airport. After a couple of false starts I gave up, walked out, and headed for the taxi stand. In the many days that followed, this ritual repeated itself with remarkable regularity. Sometimes I got the Uber, but on as many occasions, I couldn’t. The reasons for the frequent failure ranged from curious to bizarre. The “partner-drivers” would accept the request. Then they would begin to go around in circles. Sometimes they would start heading in the opposite direction. On a few occasions they would call and announce that they were “far away,” even though their registered location was visible to me on the app and their estimated time of arrival had factored into my decision to wait. It would take me a whole week to figure out that the problem wasn’t always that many Ghanaian Uber drivers couldn’t use GPS all that well, or that they were displeased with fares. There were other issues that I’d left out of my calculation, such as my payment preference, which was set to “bank card” instead of “cash.” The drivers want cash because it allows them to unofficially “borrow” from Uber and remit Uber’s money when it suits their cashflow. Though Uber offers two tiers of service, the difference in quality appeared negligible. Even on the upper tier, it was a constant struggle to find an Uber whose air conditioner hadn’t “just stopped working earlier today.” As something of a globetrotter used to seamless Uber services in European and American cities, I found the costs of onboarding onto Uber as my main means of mobility in Accra onerous. Why is a powerful corporation like Uber, reportedly valued by shrewd investment bankers at $120 billion, with $24 billion in capital raised, unable to maintain even a relative semblance of quality in its product in Ghana? And in other African cities I have visited? It may seem bleedingly obvious why heavily digitalised Facebook, Twitter, Microsoft, and Google manage to deliver fairly uniform standards of product quality regardless of where their customers are based, whilst Uber, because of its greater “embeddedness in local ecosystems” and lower digitalisation of its value chain, fails. But in that seemingly redundant observation enfolds many explanations for why the innovation-based leapfrogging narrative in frontier markets, especially in Africa, unravels at close quarters.
  • Topic: Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Digital Economy, Emerging Technology
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Publication Date: 07-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
  • Abstract: In recent years, the trend of irregular flow of persons across national borders has become a matter of grave concern within the global community. Given that the drivers of migration have continued to escalate, there are slim chances that this trend would abate; hence, there is every need for its interrogation. The irregular flow of persons across national borders has the capacity to create distortions in the social fabric of affected countries. To what extent does migration lead to the dislocation of Nigeria’s social fabric? What role does governance play in either worsening the trend or tackling migration-related problems? By adopting the qualitative method that relies primarily on documentary evidence and content analysis for generating and analyzing data, this paper examines the extent to which migration leads to the dislocation of Nigeria’s social fabrics. The paper also tries to establish not only how poor governance has contributed in generating migration-related problems but also the role of governance in managing it. The working assumption here is that the irregular flow of persons across national borders has dislocated Nigeria’s social fabric in so many ways and that bad governance is at the root of the contributory factors that drive irregular migration.
  • Topic: Migration, Immigration, Governance, Social Cohesion, Community, Social Order
  • Political Geography: Africa, Nigeria
  • Author: Michael I. Ugwueze
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: African Heritage Institution (AfriHeritage)
  • Abstract: One of the greatest security concerns confronting the global community in recent times is irregular migration. Not only does this trigger trans-border crimes such as terrorism, human trafficking, and the resurgence of slavery; it is also the major cause of brain-drain in Africa. The continuing debate within the security literature is whether irregular migration is a natural consequence of climate change, or human contrivance arising from the quest for greener pasture, and/or pressures from poor governance, civil wars, unemployment, and poverty. The currency and potency of climate change, unemployment and security debates increasingly blur the contributions of poor governance to the problem of irregular migration in Africa. In view of this, the study investigates the centrality of poor governance to the problem of irregular migration in Africa. The data for the study were generated from both primary and secondary sources, while constant comparative method (CCM) was applied in the data analysis. As a result of constant comparison, the study found out that poor governance is a major cause of irregular migration among young Africans. The paper therefore recommends improved and youth-inclusive governance in Africa.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Migration, Terrorism, Governance, Brain Drain, Slavery, Human Trafficking
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Daniel Mahanty, William Meeker
  • Publication Date: 07-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: A troubling increase in violent attacks in Niger suggests that conflict could be spilling further into the interior of the country, placing a challenge before a Nigerien government under domestic and international pressure to respond, and putting stress on a largely military that is already stretched to its limits. As the government in Niamey along with its partners in Washington and Paris formulate strategies to contend with the violence, they would be well served to ensure that additional investments in military capacity are carefully balanced with an emphasis on accountability and governance, civilian protection, and finding appropriate channels to address conflict through localized political processes.
  • Topic: Governance, Political stability, Domestic Policy
  • Political Geography: Africa, West Africa
  • Author: Anthony H. Cordesman
  • Publication Date: 02-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The U.S. has learned many lessons in its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria—most of them the hard way. It has had to adapt the strategies, tactics, and force structures designed to fight regular wars to conflicts dominated by non-state actors. It has had to deal with threats shaped by ideological extremism far more radical than the communist movements it struggled against in countries like Vietnam. It has found that the kind of “Revolution in Military Affairs,” or RMA, that helped the U.S. deter and encourage the collapses of the former Soviet Union does not win such conflicts against non-state actors, and that it faces a different mix of threats in each such war—such as in cases like Libya, Yemen, Somalia and a number of states in West Africa. The U.S. does have other strategic priorities: competition with China and Russia, and direct military threats from states like Iran and North Korea. At the same time, the U.S. is still seeking to find some form of stable civil solution to the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria—as well as the conflicts Libya, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan and West Africa. Reporting by the UN, IMF, and World Bank also shows that the mix of demographic, political governance, and economic forces that created the extremist threats the U.S. and its strategic partners are now fighting have increased in much of the entire developing world since the attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon in 2001, and the political upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa in 2011. The Burke Chair at CSIS has prepared a working paper that suggests the U.S. needs to build on the military lessons it has learned from its "long wars" in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other countries in order to carry out a new and different kind of “Revolution in Civil-Military Affairs,” or RCMA. This revolution involves very different kinds of warfighting and military efforts from the RMA. The U.S. must take full advantage of what it is learning about the need for different kinds of train and assist missions, the use of airpower, strategic communications, and ideological warfare. At the same time, the U.S. must integrate these military efforts with new civilian efforts that address the rise of extremist ideologies and internal civil conflicts. It must accept the reality that it is fighting "failed state" wars, where population pressures and unemployment, ethnic and sectarian differences, critical problems in politics and governance, and failures to meet basic economic needs are a key element of the conflict. In these elements of conflict, progress must be made in wartime to achieve any kind of victory, and that progress must continue if any stable form of resolution is to be successful.
  • Topic: Civil Society, United Nations, Military Strategy, Governance, Military Affairs, Developing World
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, West Africa, Somalia, Sundan
  • Author: Richard Downie
  • Publication Date: 03-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: During the past decade, donors and companies have begun to build viable coffee and cocoa sectors in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The locus of activity has been in eastern Congo, where decades of conflict and poor governance have displaced populations and ruined livelihoods. While the political and security environment in the DRC does not favor large-scale cash crop production, the climatic conditions do. Eastern Congo, particularly the provinces of North Kivu and South Kivu, produces excellent coffee and cocoa. Furthermore, eastern Congo has a successful history of large-scale coffee production, first under the Belgian colonists, then in the first decades of independence before the sector fell apart under President Mobuto Sese Seko. The recent entry into eastern Congo of development dollars and private-sector partners, ranging from small traders to retail giants like Starbucks, has provided a foundation to expand the DRC’s agricultural export sector. These groups and individuals have taken a risk on a country that has largely been written off by an international community disillusioned by endemic crisis and corruption. Now it is up to the DRC to reward this show of faith by taking steps to attract a larger pool of investors focused on achieving both financial returns and positive social impact. The DRC can only do this by forging a vision for the cash crop sector, putting its own resources into its development, and taking actions to improve the business environment. Any credible strategy for expanding the agricultural export economy in eastern Congo must be centered on sustainable growth that benefits smallholder farmers and their communities and helps cement peace in a volatile region. With future global supplies of coffee and cocoa threatened by farmer poverty, the impact of climate change, and corporate doubts about the sectors’ profitability, the DRC can create a market opportunity for itself, provided it shows vision and intelligence. If the DRC can learn from mistakes made by other producing nations, it has the potential to build a thriving cash crop sector that not only benefits the national economy but improves the lives of some of its most vulnerable citizens. Realizing this vision, however, will not be easy. Daunting barriers stand in the way of a large, successful cash crop sector. Farmers are poor, lack support, and struggle to access finance. Their trees are old, badly maintained, and low-yielding. Companies worry about the expense and logistical challenges of getting produce out of the country, at volume. Insecurity and poor governance create a level of unpredictability that deters potential investors. This report weighs up the size of these risks, compared with the opportunities on offer, and suggests some strategies for overcoming them. Material is drawn from expert interviews and a literature review of global best practices in the coffee and cocoa sectors. The evidence suggests that expectations for the DRC should be realistic. Eastern Congo is highly unlikely to become the next Colombia of coffee production or displace Côte d’Ivoire as the world’s leading source of cocoa. Nevertheless, there is potential to scale up coffee and cocoa production in the DRC in a sustainable way that improves the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Success will depend on: Effective partnerships between donors, private-sector actors all the way along the value chain, and the Congolese government, which must lay out a compelling strategy for expanding the agricultural export sector and rally support around it. Sustained training of farmers and cooperatives that increases production of coffee and cocoa without compromising on quality. Increasing the flow of capital into eastern Congo’s agricultural sector by deploying new, innovative financing mechanisms and technologies. Finding new ways to market Congolese products that connect with consumers and shift a greater share of value chain profits toward smallholder farmers.
  • Topic: Privatization, Governance, Trade, Coffee, Cocoa
  • Political Geography: Africa, Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo
  • Author: Caesar Cheelo
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Hudson Institute
  • Abstract: In February 2018, the IMF reaffirmed its August 2017 formal withdrawal from negotiations with Zambia over a package of financial support. The strong position to hold negotiations came in the IMF’s Article IV Consultations report of 2017, which concluded that Zambia was at high risk of debt distress, and that whilst financial management and fiscal discipline were improving, the extent of the improvement was not sufficient to mitigate the growing public debt and fiscal deficit. Whilst the IMF deal may be off the table for the time being, the many of problems that drove Zambia to engage the IMF most assuredly remain unresolved. Two to three years after the economic minicrisis of 2015, Zambia continued to accrue sizable new debts, to utilize the proceeds poorly (to fund consumption spending) and to run persistent fiscal deficits – albeit a smaller and seemingly better managed deficit in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016. These issues remain problematic despite the partial economic rebound, with high copper prices, good rains (leading to good harvests and more reliable power supply), and a stable Kwacha providing a strong platform for improvement. Nonetheless, fiscal performance is lagging behind and Zambia may be missing a window to reestablish prudent public financial management.
  • Topic: Infrastructure, Governance, Reform, Macroeconomics, IMF, Public Debt
  • Political Geography: Africa, Zambia
  • Author: Eran Lerman
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
  • Abstract: Hopes and fears abound as President Sisi begins his second term. The winter of 2011 seemed to usher in a democratic spring. But the spring of 2018 seems to be authoritarian autumn.
  • Topic: Governance, Authoritarianism, Leadership, Dictatorship
  • Political Geography: Africa, Egypt
  • Author: Gavin Stedman-Bryce
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Oxfam Publishing
  • Abstract: This evaluation is presented as part of the Effectiveness Review Series 2015/16, selected for review under the women’s empowerment thematic area. This report documents the findings of an impact evaluation, carried out in January 2016. The purpose of the evaluation was to rigorously assess the effectiveness of the Raising Her Voice project in South Africa (RHV-SA), in terms of its contribution to greater women’s empowerment. Usually, evaluations under this thematic area are evaluated using quasi-experimental impact evaluation techniques. In this case, given the characteristics of the project, a different impact evaluation technique has been applied, called process tracing. Where interventions have small sample sizes for evaluators to draw from (referred to as small ‘n’ evaluations), this can make it difficult to adopt traditional counterfactual approaches to establishing causality for a range of technical and practical reasons. This is a situation typically faced in projects under Oxfam’s Good Governance outcome area (previously known as Citizen Voice and Policy Influencing). Evaluations of interventions under this outcome area are concerned with establishing whether or not they contributed to an observed change; in other words, they are concerned with assessing a causal claim. To make this type of assessment possible, Oxfam developed a pre-qualified protocol, based on process tracing.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Governance, Gender Based Violence , Feminism
  • Political Geography: Africa, South Africa
  • Author: Ian Goodrich
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Oxfam Publishing
  • Abstract: The programme has four main objectives: Employment and value chain development. Enhancing the enabling environment for agricultural markets and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Strengthening citizen participation in government decision making related to the agriculture sector. Strengthening women’s economic leadership. This document focuses on these areas and how the programme has addressed the government’s ban on the use of plastic bags, which created an obstacle for small-scale producers.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Gender Issues, Governance, Leadership, Participation, Value Chains
  • Political Geography: Africa, Rwanda