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761. "Their Priority Is Not The People": Civilian Views On Peace Operations In Africa

Author:
Thijs Van Laer
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
“Their priority is not the people of Somalia,” a Somali woman who had recently fled to the Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya said about peacekeepers in her home country. “It is the government and themselves.” Unfortunately, this view is not unique. Civilians in countries with peace operations often experience a wide gap between them and those missions. Yet, at a time when peacekeeping is at a crossroads—again—and under increasing financial pressure, it is more important than ever to solicit and acknowledge the views of the citizens who are affected by peace operations. Their suggestions on how to bolster results should be taken into account in the ongoing debates about successes, failures, and costs of peace operations. However, despite an acceptance in the ever-quoted HIPPO report that “engaging with host countries and local communities must increasingly be regarded as core to mission success” and despite the acceptance of protection of civilians as a core norm for UN peacekeeping, realities on the ground demonstrate that too little has been done to access or include these voices. Between October 2015 and April 2017, International Refugees Rights Initiative (IRRI) conducted close to 200 interviews with civilians in South Sudan, Sudan (Darfur) and Somalia about how they perceive the peace operations in their countries. The three missions in those countries, all of which are mandated by the UN Security Council, embody the range of different options available to implement the strategic partnership between the African Union and the UN, from a fully-fledged UN mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), to a joint AU-UN mission in Darfur (UNAMID) and an AU-operated mission in Somalia (AMISOM). While all three operate in significantly different contexts, they all have “little peace to keep” and have been often criticized for their limitations in implementing their mandate, especially when it comes to the protection of civilians. All three missions have also been reviewed this year. UNAMID has been restructured and its troop numbers have been seriously reduced; the UN and AU have just concluded a joint review of AMISOM and strengthened the focus in its mandate on withdrawal and handover to Somali security forces. UNMISS faces some minor budget cuts and a review, even as reinforcement by a Regional Protection Force is slowly being implemented. While much of what was talked about by the Somalis, South Sudanese, and Darfuris interviewed during the course of the research was specific to their context, a number of similarities and trends emerge from their responses, despite the strategic, operational, and contextual differences between the three missions. These trends are important, not only for any new rounds of high-level policy debates, but also for addressing the strategic challenges for protection of civilians and the rock-bottom popularity of peacekeepers among the civilians they are supposed to protect.
Topic:
Human Rights, United Nations, Refugees, Peace, and Civilians
Political Geography:
Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Darfur, Somalia, and South Sudan

762. One Team, one Nation: Football, Ethnic Identity, and Conflict in Africa

Author:
Emillio Depetris-Chauvin and Ruben Durante
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Do collective experiences that prime sentiments of national unity reduce interethnic tensions and conflict? We examine this question by looking at the impact of national football teams’ victories in sub-Saharan Africa. Combining individual survey data with information on official matches played between 2000 and 2015, we find that individuals interviewed in the days after a victory of their country’s national team are less likely to report a strong sense of ethnic identity and more likely to trust people of other ethnicities than those interviewed just before. The effect is sizeable and robust and is not explained by generic euphoria or optimism. Crucially, national victories do not only affect attitudes but also reduce violence. Indeed, using plausibly exogenous variation from close qualifications to the Africa Cup of Nations, we find that countries that (barely) qualified experience significantly less conflict in the following six months than countries that (barely) did not. Our findings indicate that, even where ethnic cleavages have deep historical roots, patriotic shocks can reduce interethnic tensions and have a tangible impact on conflict.
Topic:
Nationalism, Sports, Community, Identity, and Unity
Political Geography:
Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

763. The Autocratic Trust Bias: Politically Sensitive Survey Items and Self-censorship

Author:
Marcus Tannenberg
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Because of a perceived risk of repressive action, some survey questions are likely sensitive in more autocratic countries while less so in more democratic countries. Yet survey data on potentially sensitive topics are frequently used in comparative research despite concerns about comparability. In a novel approach to examining the comparability of politically sensitive questions, I employ a multilevel analysis with more than 140,000 respondents in 36 African countries to test for systematic bias when survey respondents believe (fear) that the government, rather than an independent research institute, has commissioned the survey. The findings indicate that fear of the government induces a substantial and significant bias on questions regarding the citizen-state relationship in more autocratic countries, but not in more democratic countries. Moreover, respondents who think the government commissioned the survey do not answer differently on innocuous, apolitical questions than respondents who believe the survey to be independent, regardless of regime type. This has practical implications for the comparative use of survey data.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Democracy, Research, Domestic Politics, and Survey
Political Geography:
Africa

764. Wartime Educational Loss and Attitudes toward Democratic Institutions

Author:
Shelley Liu
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does civil war affect society and citizen interaction with politics? Civilians who live through warfare face numerous challenges that can have permanent effects on society even after peace is achieved. This project uses the Liberian civil wars as a case study to examine the impact of war through one channel – disruptions in education for an entire generation of children. The paper shows that negative effects of war on education and economic outcomes clash with citizen expectations for post-war democracy, leading to negative consequences for the democratization process. Specifically, educational deficiencies in this particular generation of young adults decrease job prospects, breeding resentment against the promises of democracy. This extends to the political sphere, such that those who lost out on educational opportunities due to war exhibit lower engagement, less desire to engage with democratic processes, and a greater rejection of democracy altogether.
Topic:
Civil Society, Civil War, Education, War, Children, and Youth
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

765. Disease, Disaster, and Disengagement: Ebola and Political Participation in Sierra Leone

Author:
Benjamin Crisman
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How do widespread public health crises affect political behavior? This article examines the impact of the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak on political participation in Sierra Leone. How do widespread public health crises affect individual attitudes and political behavior? Infectious diseases are ubiquitous in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and the intensity and frequency of outbreaks are increasing (Smith et al., 2014) and expected to continue to increase in the face of climate change (Altizer, Ostfeld, Johnson, Kutz, & Harvell, 2013), rising antibacterial resistance (Jones et al., 2008), and deforestation (Wolfe, Daszak, Kilpatrick, & Burke, 2005). In the case of Ebola virus disease (EVD), these outbreaks are becoming more deadly (Diehl et al., 2016). While the negative consequences of persistent disease burden on economic outcomes is well known, as in the case of malaria (Sachs & Malaney, 2002) or HIV/AIDS (Whiteside, 2002), the consequences of disease crises on political development is less clear. In this article, I explore the relationship between Ebola exposure in the West African Ebola outbreak and political participation using individual responses from Afrobarometer Round 6 (2015) survey data in Sierra Leone.
Topic:
Ebola, Public Health, Pandemic, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and West Africa

766. Explaining South African Xenophobia

Author:
Christopher Claasssen
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
South Africa now has the unfortunate reputation as one of the more hostile destinations in the world for African migrants. Widespread attacks targeting foreigners took place in May 2008, killing 62 people and making international headlines. Another wave of violence occurred in April 2015, leading to an outcry across Africa and the recall of the Nigerian ambassador. These are not attacks caused by small bands of provocateurs or criminals; both qualitative and quantitative evidence suggests widespread participation in, and support for, the violence in the affected communities (Claassen, 2014). Indeed, a number of commentators have remarked on the elevated levels of xenophobia observed in South Africa (see, for example, Mattes, Taylor, McDonald, Poore, & Richmond, 1999), with African nationals, in particular, facing everyday hostility and violence (Everatt, 2010). Thus, rather than a case of rare and sporadic attacks disturbing otherwise peaceful relations between locals and African immigrants, South African xenophobia appears to take the form of widespread antipathy and intolerance punctuated by acts of hostility and violence. South African xenophobia has national and regional political consequences. The violence that took place in 2008 and 2015, as well as the hate crimes that occur with everyday regularity, present a pressing human rights concern. Furthermore, as Landau (2011, 2012) has noted, such levels of intergroup hostility are a symptom of a deep social and political malaise. Finally, as the sharp international reaction to the 2015 attacks indicates, South African xenophobia now constrains the country’s international relations, particularly within Africa. This paper investigates the determinants of South African xenophobia. Despite a great deal of reflection, commentary, and research by government, civil society, and scholars, we have a poor understanding of the factors that influence and shape hostility toward African immigrants. The problem is not a scarcity of explanations, but an overabundance. With up to a dozen explanations proffered by experts, we have little idea what actually causes hostility toward immigrants. Moreover, the laundry list of possibilities gives little clue whether some causal factors are contingent on others, as is often the case in social processes.
Topic:
Migration, Border Control, Violence, Xenophobia, and Racism
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

767. 800 languages and counting: Lessons from Survey Research Across a Linguistically Diverse Continent

Author:
Carolyn Logan
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Using data on more than 800 home languages identified during Afrobarometer Round 5 (2011/2013) surveys in 35 countries, as well as information on multilingualism gathered in 20 countries in Round 4 (2008/2009), this paper explores linguistic diversity and multilingualism at the individual level, within communities, and across countries. Afrobarometer data offer a unique perspective on the distribution of languages and language capabilities from the viewpoint of the users of language rather than those who study it. The paper also identifies some of the challenges encountered in collecting public opinion data in linguistically diverse environments. The findings reveal that even in many rural zones, many Africans are living within ethnically and linguistically diverse communities, and preliminary analysis suggests this may have important implications for social and political attitudes. The data have untapped potential for understanding language evolution and for studying language both as a product and as a variable driving attitudes and outcomes.
Topic:
Research, Language, Survey, and Identity
Political Geography:
Africa

768. Public Trust in Elections: The Role of Media Freedom and Election Management Autonomy

Author:
Nicholas Kerr and Anna Lührmann
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
As multiparty elections have become a global norm, scholars and policy experts regard public trust in elections as vital for regime legitimacy. However, very few cross-national studies have examined the consequences of electoral manipulation, including the manipulation of election administration and the media, on citizens’ trust in elections. This paper addresses this gap by exploring how autonomy of election management bodies (EMBs) and media freedom individually and conjointly shape citizens’ trust in elections. Citizens are more likely to express confidence in elections when EMBs display de facto autonomy and less likely to do so when mass media disseminate information independent of government control. Additionally, we suggest that EMB autonomy may not have a positive effect on public trust in elections if media freedom is low. Empirical findings based on recent survey data on public trust in elections in 47 countries and expert data on de facto EMB autonomy and media freedom support our hypotheses.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Elections, Democracy, and Media
Political Geography:
Africa

769. The Expansion of Regional Supermarket Chains: Implications for local suppliers in Zambia

Author:
Francis Ziba and Mwanda Phiri
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
The last two decades have seen rapid economic growth in Zambia and the proliferation of foreign supermarket chain stores. However, this growth has translated into neither significant job creation nor significant poverty reduction. Furthermore, while the expansion of supermarket chains in Zambia has continued, local processing firms’ participation in supermarket value chains remains limited. This paper assesses the hindrances to local processing firms’ participation in supermarket value chains and how those firms’ participation might stimulate growth through regional trade. Our results show that local processing firms’ participation in regional supermarket value chains is constrained by a number of factors that pose either strategic or structural barriers to entry.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Private Sector, Retail, Regional Economy, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

770. Zambia’s Bilateral Investment Treaties Review and Evaluation

Author:
Joseph Simumba
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia attracts foreign direct investments (FDI) from many countries that vary in terms of income levels and geographical location. In the last two decades, the country witnessed a rapid increase in bilateral investment treaty (BIT) activities triggered by massive economic liberalisation of the early 1990s. From a single ratified BIT with Germany prior to 1990, there are now 31 BITs locally called Investment Promotion and Protection Agreements (IPPAs) of which two (2) are ratified, eleven (11) are signed and eighteen (18) exist in draft form. However, BIT activities in Zambia have plummeted in line with a post 2010 global slowdown, a situation linked to rising uncertainty caused by a surge in the number of investment treaty-based cases at international tribunals. Foreign investors are suing host states over disputes ranging from direct expropriation to claims of adverse business regulation especially in the energy and extractives sectors. This study reviews Zambia’s BITs and evaluates their impact on the accumulation of FDI stocks using data collected from the Private Investment and Investor Perception Surveys conducted by Bank of Zambia, Central Statistical Office and Zambia Development Agency for the period 2007-2014 were data is publicly available. The findings show that BITs significantly matter for accumulation of FDI stocks in Zambia. The group of countries with a ratified BIT (Germany and Switzerland) maintain 1.6 times more FDI stocks than the corresponding group with only signed BITs controlling for income groups and geographical location and their interactions based on the World Bank classification. The groups of countries with a draft or without a BIT maintain FDI stocks that are less than four times lower than FDI stocks maintained by the group of ratified BITs countries. This evidence is robust to several potential confounders of the relationship between BITs and FDI stocks. Therefore, ratified BITs work for Zambia’s FDI stocks, a result that challenges some pessimism against IPPAs in Zambia.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Foreign Direct Investment, Economy, and Investment
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia