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Begin New Search Political Geography Ethiopia Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution United Nations University

1. Armed groups’ modes of local engagement and post-conflict (in)stability: Insights from the Ethiopian and Somali civil wars

Author:
Marine Gassier
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
What distinguishes post-war governments that succeed in establishing a stable political order and prevent recurring conflict from those that do not? This comparative study considers the specific threats that typically lead to the collapse of the post-conflict political order to offer new hypotheses on the conditions that affect post-war governments’ ability to sustainably restore stability. The threats considered include (i) fragmentation of the main actors in the conflict, (ii) inadequate demobilization, and (iii) enduring dependence of the post-war government on local brokers. Post-war regimes are more vulnerable to such risks after wars in which the dominant armed groups have established themselves by co-opting local power structures and drawing on existing socio-political networks, as this process redistributes power from the central to the local level. Empirically, this paper uses a novel dataset documenting the practices through which rebel groups may alter local power structures to highlight the connection between this wartime process of transformation and patterns of conflict recurrence. In addition, it contrasts the transition of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front from rebellion to government in Ethiopia in the 1990s with the trajectory of the armed movements in Somalia that also overthrew the incumbent military regime but then failed to establish a viable state.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Armed Forces, Conflict, Post-Conflict, and Instability
Political Geography:
Africa, Ethiopia, and Somalia

2. Trade liberalization, employment, and gender in Ethiopia

Author:
Giorgia Giovannetti, Marco Sanfilippo, and Arianna Vivoli
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses the impact of trade liberalization on local labour markets in Ethiopia, with a focus on the gender dimension of employment. By exploiting rich micro-level data on Ethiopian workers, we evaluate the effect of the Ethiopian trade reforms on the changes and composition of employment, adopting as unit of analysis Ethiopian districts. We find that districts more exposed to trade liberalization experienced reductions in their employment levels, especially in female employment. We also show that reductions in (agricultural) input tariffs triggers a process of sectoral reallocation from agriculture to services and that this process is particularly pronounced for women. This in turns contributes to increase sectoral segregation.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Employment, Trade, and Liberalization
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

3. Roads and jobs in Ethiopia

Author:
Matteo Fiorini and Marco Sanfilippo
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
We look at how improving roads can affect jobs and structural transformation. We use a novel geocoded dataset covering the universe of Ethiopian roads and match this information with individual data to identify the effects of improvements in road infrastructure on the creation, quality, and sectoral distribution of jobs over the period 1994–2013. We find that, at the district level, higher market potential due to better roads contributes to the creation of new jobs, reduces the share of agricultural workers, and increases that of workers in the services sector but not in manufacturing. The latter experiences a relative increase in the share of informal workers. Finally, investigating the underlying mechanisms, we show that patterns of internal migration and changes in economic opportunities can help to rationalize our findings.
Topic:
Markets, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Roads
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

4. Ethiopia – an agrarian economy in transition

Author:
Yared Seid, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, and Seid Nuru Ali
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic growth since 2005. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an average rate of 10.5 per cent per annum for the period between 2004–05 and 2013–14. Public investment in key infrastructure and interventions in the agriculture sector have made important contributions to GDP growth. This growth has been accompanied by a process of capital deepening and signs of structural shift away from traditional and primary sectors towards secondary and tertiary sectors. Both processes of high growth and structural shift have important implications for poverty reduction and income distribution. One potential channel through which these influences work is the labour market. The indications of structural transformation that Ethiopia has shown in the last decade, including a continuous decline in the role of agriculture and rise in that of services, have led to reallocation of jobs and labour from low-productivity agriculture to more productive industrial—in particular the construction sub-sector—and service sectors. The rise in total factor productivity, overall increase in labour force participation rate, and fall in the labour share of the agriculture sector are indicative of the nature and extent of structural shift in the Ethiopian economy. A more durable shift of economic activities towards the manufacturing sector is expected to follow the rising trend in investment in the sector. This study explores the impact of the high economic growth and slow but unmistakable structural change on a number of economic outcomes working through the labour market. The growth opportunities and challenges of the Ethiopian economy are also discussed.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Economy, Economic Growth, Investment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

5. Asset Portfolios in Africa: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

Author:
Christian Rogg
Publication Date:
11-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper considers asset holdings in rural Ethiopia. It shows that households own mostly non-financial assets and that the composition of asset portfolios varies significantly with the household's overall wealth and its exposure to uncertainty. As regards the distribution of assets, inequality is lowest for land holdings and much higher for all other assets. More generally, asset inequality is higher than consumption inequality but, somewhat surprisingly, lower than income inequality. Less surprising is the finding that asset holdings are positively correlated with income and consumption. An analysis of how asset holdings vary with key demographic variables shows that assets increase with the size of the household and the education of the household head. Finally, the paper concludes by exploring the role that assets play in marriage markets in rural Ethiopia.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

6. The Structure and Performance of Ethiopia's Financial Sector in the Pre- and Post-Reform Period with a Special Focus on Banking

Author:
Alemayehu Geda
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since 1992 Ethiopia has been engaged in liberalizing its financial sector. The hallmark of the strategy is gradualism. The approach is not without problems especially from Bretton Woods Institutions that saw the reform as a sluggish process. This study examines this liberalization program by analyzing the performance of the sector before and after the reform. The study notes that given the nascent development of the financial sector in the country, the relatively good shape in which the existing financial institutions find themselves, and given that supervision and regulation capacity of the regulating agency is weak, the government's strategy of gradualism and its over all reform direction is encouraging. However, we argue for charting out clearly defined time frame for liberalization and exploring the possibility of engaging with foreign banks to acquire new technology that enhance the efficiency of the financial sector in general and the banking sector in particular.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

7. Finance and Poverty in Ethiopia: A Household Level Analysis

Author:
Alemayehu Geda, Daniel Zerfu, and Abebe Shimeles
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper, using the rich household panel data of urban and rural Ethiopia that covers the period from 1994 to 2000, we attempted to establish the link between finance and poverty in Ethiopia. Our results show that access to finance is an important factor in consumption smoothing and hence poverty reduction. We also found evidence for a poverty trap due to liquidity constraints that limits the ability of the rural households from consumption smoothing. The empirical findings from this study could inform finance policies aimed at addressing issues of poverty reduction.
Topic:
Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

8. Millennium Development Goal 7: An Assessment of Progress With Respect to Water and Sanitation: Legacy, Synergy, Complacency or Policy?

Author:
P.B. Anand
Publication Date:
01-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Access to water and sanitation (target 10) is an important ingredient of quality of life. As per WHO-UNICEF assessments, globally, 77 per cent of population had access to water in 1990. This proportion has increase d to 83 per cent in 2002, thus, on track to achieve the target of halving the proportion of population without safe access by 2015. However, there is considerable regional disparity in progress which remains significantly low in many countries in sub- Saharan Africa. Also, the question remains whether increased access is same as sustainable access. In 2002, some 2.6 billion people worldwide did not have access to safe sanitation options. Of these, nearly 2 billion were in the rural areas. While in almost all countries, the proportion of people having access to improved sanitation in 2002 has increased compared to the status in 1990, in 27 countries including India, Ne pal, Lao PDR, Namibia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Yemen, two out of three people did not have access to improved sanitation in 2002.
Topic:
Development, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
India, Yemen, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Namibia

9. Taxes and Tax Reform in Ethiopia, 1990-2003

Author:
Alemayehu Geda and Abebe Shimeles
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In 1991 the Ethiopian Revolution Democratic Front (EPRDF) toppled the old 'socialist' regime that had ruled the country for seventeen years. In contrast to the previous policy regime of hard control, EPRDF initiated a wide range of reforms that covered not only the tax system but also the exchange rate, interest rates, trade, domestic production and distribution. This pa per attempts to explore the contribution of the tax reform, the change s in its structure and institutional reform in order to understand its role in raising revenue.
Topic:
Democratization, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

10. Prospects for 'Pro-Poor' Growth in Africa

Author:
Abebe Shimeles and Arne Bigsten
Publication Date:
07-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper examines trends in income distribution and its linkages to economic growth and poverty reduction in order to understand the prospects for achieving poverty reduction in Africa. We examine the levels and trends in income distribution in some African countries and calculate pro-poor growth indices. Different growth patterns are simulated for Ethiopia, Uganda, Mozambique, and South Africa. We conclude that the balance between policies aimed at growth and measures aimed at redistribution should depend on the elasticity of the growth-equity tradeoff. We also discuss what the appropriate ingredients of a pro-poor strategy would be in the African setting.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, South Africa, Mozambique, and Ethiopia

11. Dynamics of Poverty in Ethiopia

Author:
Abebe Shimeles and Arne Bigsten
Publication Date:
06-2004
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper addresses issues related to the dynamics of income poverty using unique household panel data for urban and rural areas of Ethiopia covering the period 1994-97. The percentage of households that remained in poverty was twice as large in urban areas as in rural areas. This suggests that income variability is a serious problem in rural areas, while the persistence is a key feature of urban poverty. The paper also discusses household characteristics that are correlated with the incidence of chronic poverty as well as vulnerability to poverty. A strategy that promotes consumption smoothing through say access to credit can work well in rural areas, while income or employment generation are required for poverty alleviation in urban areas.
Topic:
Economics, Human Welfare, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

12. Food Aid and Informal Insurance

Author:
Stefan Dercon and Pramila Krishnan
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Households in developing countries use a variety of informal mechanisms to cope with risk, including mutual support and risk-sharing. These mechanisms cannot avoid that they remain vulnerable to shocks. Public programs in the form of food aid distribution and food-for-work programs are meant to protect vulnerable households from consumption and nutrition downturns by providing a safety net. In this paper we look into the extent to which food aid helps to smooth consumption by reducing the impact of negative shocks, taking into account informal risk-sharing arrangements. Using panel data from Ethiopia, we find that despite relatively poor targeting of the food aid, the programs contribute to better consumption outcomes, largely via intra-village risk sharing.
Topic:
Development, Non-Governmental Organization, Poverty, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

13. Health, Shocks and Poverty Persistence

Author:
Stefan Dercon and John Hoddinott
Publication Date:
01-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In this paper we review the evidence on the impact of large shocks, such as drought, on child and adult health, with particular emphasis on Zimbabwe and Ethiopia. Our focus is on the impact of shocks on long-term outcomes, and we ask whether there are intrahousehold differences in these effects. The evidence suggests substantial fluctuations in body weight and growth retardation in response to shocks. While there appears to be no differential impact between boys and girls, adult women are often worse affected by these shocks. For children, there is no full recovery from these losses, affecting adult health and education outcomes, as well as lifetime earnings. For adults, there is no evidence of persistent effects from transitory shocks in our data.
Topic:
Development, Poverty, Science and Technology, and Third World
Political Geography:
Africa, Zimbabwe, and Ethiopia

14. Underdevelopment, Transition and Reconstruction in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Tony Addison
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Reconstructing Africa's war damaged economies is an urgent task. This is especially so in a group of countries - Angola, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, and Mozambique - which must also complete their economic and political transition from state socialism. Somalia, which shares their common history, must eventually be rebuilt. All of these countries must address their deep problems of underdevelopment and poverty. The challenges are therefore three-fold: to overcome underdevelopment, to make the transition from state socialism, and to reconstruct economies and societies.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia, Angola, Eritrea, and Guinea-Bissau