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Begin New Search Topic International Trade and Finance Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution The Brookings Institution

1. The Trans-Pacific Partnership The politics of openness and leadership in the Asia-Pacific

Author:
MIREYA SOLIS and Mireya Solis
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Trade policy, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in particular, is vitally connected to the national interests of prosperity, security, and governance. With novel rules on the digital economy, high tariff elimina- tion targets, and disciplines to address behind-the-border protectionism, the TPP creates opportunities for American sectors that enjoy competitive strength—services, advanced manufacturing, agriculture—to expand their reach in overseas markets. Projected annual income gains from this trade deal range between $57 billion and $131 billion by 2032, compared to a base- line scenario. In sharp contrast to the experience of import competition with China, the TPP will not impose large adjustment costs in terms of employment and wages, generating instead a net (albeit small) positive effect on job creation and wage rates. However, the individual costs for displaced employees are very high, and the contours of a new pro-adjustment safety net that enables workers to navigate difficult economic transitions (brought about by technological change or trade) are highlighted below.
Topic:
Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
America and Asia-Pacific

2. The post-2015 agenda and the evolution of the World Bank Group

Author:
Homi Kharas
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The Addis Ababa Action Agenda reaffirms the central role of development banks in providing concessional and non-concessional long-term financing, countercyclical financing, guarantees and leverage, policy advice, capacity building, and other support to the post-2015 agenda. "We recognize the significant potential of multilateral development banks and other international development banks in financing sustainable development and providing know-how. We stress that development banks should make optimal use of their resources and balance sheets, consistent with maintaining their financial integrity, and should update and develop their policies in support of the post-2015 development agenda, including the sustainable development goals (SDGs)."
Topic:
Development, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and World Bank
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. A High-Carbon Partnership? Chinese-Latin American Relations in a Carbon-Constrained World

Author:
Timmons Roberts and Guy Edwards
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
China's rapidly increasing investment, trade and loans in Latin America may be entrenching high-carbon development pathways in the region, a trend scarcely mentioned in policy circles. High-carbon activities include the extraction of fossil fuels and other natural resources, expansion of large-scale agriculture and the energy-intensive stages of processing natural resources into intermediate goods. This paper addresses three examples, including Chinese investments in Venezuela's oil sector and a Costa Rican oil refinery, and Chinese investment in and purchases of Brazilian soybeans. We pose the question of whether there is a tie between China's role in opening up vast resources in Latin America and the way those nations make national climate policy and how they behave at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations. We focus on the period between the 2009 Copenhagen round of negotiations and the run-up to the Paris negotiations scheduled for 2015, when the UNFCCC will attempt to finalize a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, International Trade and Finance, Oil, Natural Resources, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
China and Latin America

4. Supporting The Internet as a Platform for International Trade

Author:
Joshua Meltzer
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper is about the potential of the Internet as a platform for international trade. A traditional understanding of the impact of the Internet on commerce is derived from the dot.com experience of the 1990s, where Internet companies such as Pets.com and Amazon sold goods online. Since then, the impact of the Internet on commerce has grown and changed. Certainly, the ability to sell goods online remains important. However, the key development is that the Internet is no longer only a digital storefront. Instead, the Internet as described in this working paper is a platform for businesses to sell to customers domestically and overseas, and is a business input that increases productivity and the ability of businesses to compete. Understanding the Internet as a platform for trade highlights its broad economic potential. It emphasizes how the commercial opportunities are no longer limited to Internet companies, but are now available for businesses in all sectors of the economy, from manufacturing to services. Moreover, the global nature of the Internet means that these opportunities are no longer limited to domestic markets, but are embraced wherever Internet access is available.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Science and Technology, and Communications
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Europe

5. Designing Youth Employment Policies in Egypt

Author:
Akira Murata
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The paper uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to elicit job preferences among youth, and analyzes survey data collected from engineering students at 10 universities in six cities in Egypt during the period of July through October 2013. For a comparative analysis, the survey was also conducted at eight universities in five cities in Indonesia, which is one of the nations in Asia with a Muslim-majority population that faces the same demographic issue. The findings of this research will contribute to building a foundation for designing youth employment policies in Egypt. The most obvious findings to emerge from this study are that: the public-private sector wage differentials must be narrowed; better benefits must accompany private sector employment (particularly support for continuing education, upgrading qualifications, and health insurance); and good IT infrastructure matters. Taken together, these steps could significantly contribute to an increase in the rates of a private sector employment among young Egyptian job seekers, even in the case of continued high public sector wages.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Labor Issues, and Youth Culture
Political Geography:
Africa, America, and Arabia

6. Key Issues on European Banking Union: Trade-Offs and Some Recommendations

Author:
Douglas J. Elliott
Publication Date:
11-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
European leaders have committed to moving toward a banking union, in which bank regulation and supervision, deposit guarantees, and the handling of troubled banks will be integrated across at least the euro area and possibly across the wider European Union. This is quite positive for two reasons. Most immediately, it will help solve the euro crisis by weakening the link between debt-burdened governments and troubled banks, where each side has added to the woes of the other. In the longer run, it will make the “single market” in European banking substantially more effective.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

7. Dynamics of Inflation "Herding": Decoding India's Inflationary Process

Author:
Urjit R. Patel and Gangadhar Darbha
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Compared to immediately preceding years, that is, its own recent history, India's inflation became unhinged (thereby reversing creditable performance) from as far back as 2006. The paper puts forward an empirical framework to analyze the time series and cross-sectional dynamics of inflation in India using a large panel of disaggregated sector prices for the time period, 1994/95 to 2010/11. This allows us to rigorously explore issues that have been, at best, loosely posed in policy debates such as diffusion or comovement of inflation across sectors, role of common and idiosyncratic factors in explaining variation, persistence, importance of food and energy price changes to the overall inflation process, and contrast the recent experience with the past. We find, interalia, that the current period of high inflation is more cross-sectionally diffused, and driven by increasingly persistent common factors in non-food and non-energy sectors compared to that in the 1990s; this is likely to make it more difficult for anti-inflationary policy to gain traction this time round compared to the past. The paper has also introduced a novel measure of inflation, viz., Pure Inflation Gauges (PIGs) in the Indian context by decomposing price movements into those on account of: (1) aggregate shocks that have equiproportional effects on all sector prices; (2) aggregated relative price effects; and (3) sector-specific and idiosyncratic shocks. If PIGs, in conjunction with our other findings, for example, on persistence had been used as a measure of underlying (pure) inflationary pressures, the monetary authorities may not have been sanguine regarding the timeliness of initiating anti-inflationary policies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

8. Can Producer Associations Make Agriculture Sustainable? Evidence from Farmer Development Centers in India

Author:
Raj M. Desai and Shareen Joshi
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
This paper evaluates the impact of the Self- Employed Women's Association's (SEWA) farmer development center (FDC) initiative across five farming districts in Gujarat, India. The initiative provided a mix of training, information provisions, access to farming inputs, risk mitigation, and output. Controlling for a range of individual-specific, household, and village level factors, we find that SEWA membership primarily raised awareness of available opportunities among its participants, linked women to the financial sector and to diversified employment opportunities, including non-farm work. There is also evidence that the program's impact varied depending on the participants' socio-economic background. The poorest members experienced higher farm and non-farm incomes, increased food consumption, improved household and farm productivity, more self-employment opportunities, a greater likelihood of opening a bank account, higher crop harvests, and greater food security. These estimates suggest that the major comparative advantage of FDCs lies in improving access to credit and in expanding access to useful information.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
India and Gujarat

9. Developing Countries, Dispute Settlement, and the Advisory Centre on WTO Law

Author:
Rachel McCulloch and Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Critical appraisals of the current and potential benefits from developing country engagement in the WTO focus mainly on the Doha Round of negotiations. This paper examines a different aspect of developing country participation in the WTO: use of the WTO dispute settlement system to enforce foreign market access rights already negotiated in earlier rounds of multilateral negotiations. We examine data on developing country use from 1995 through 2008 of the WTO Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU) to enforce foreign market access. The data reveal three notable trends: developing countries' sustained rate of self-enforcement actions despite declining use of the DSU by developed countries, developing countries' increased use of the DSU to self-enforce their access to the markets of developing as well as developed country markets, and the prevalence of disputes targeting highly observable causes of lost foreign market access, such as antidumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards. The paper also examines how introduction of the Advisory Centre on WTO Law (ACWL) into the WTO system in 2001 has affected developing countries' use of the DSU to self-enforce their foreign market access rights. A first pass at the data indicates that developing country use of the ACWL mirrors their use of the DSU more broadly; the ACWL has had little effect in terms of introducing new countries to DSU self-enforcement. A closer look at the data reveals evidence on at least three channels through which the ACWL may be enhancing developing countries' ability to self-enforce foreign market access: increased initiation of sole-complainant cases, more extensive pursuit of the DSU legal process for any given case, and initiation of disputes over smaller values of lost trade.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

10. Institutions Versus Policies: A Tale of Two Islands

Author:
Peter Blair Henry and Conrad Miller
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Recent work emphasizes the primacy of differences in countries' colonially-bequeathed property rights and legal systems for explaining differences in their subsequent economic development. Barbados and Jamaica provide a striking counter example to this long-run view of income determination. Both countries inherited property rights and legal institutions from their English colonial masters yet experienced starkly different growth trajectories in the aftermath of independence. From 1960 to 2002, Barbados' Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita grew roughly three times as fast as Jamaica's. Consequently, the income gap between Barbados and Jamaica is now almost five times larger than at the time of independence. Since their property rights and legal systems are virtually identical, recent theories of development cannot explain the divergence between Barbados and Jamaica. Differences in macroeconomic policy choices, not differences in institutions, account for the heterogeneous growth experiences of these two Caribbean nations.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Caribbean

11. Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration

Author:
Eswar Prasad, M. Ayhan Kose, and Ashley D. Taylor
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain “threshold” levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness. In this paper, we develop a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions. We find that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality—the cost-benefit trade- off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied. We also find that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared to those for debt liabilities.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, and International Trade and Finance

12. Financial Globalization and Economic Policies

Author:
Eswar Prasad, Kenneth Rogoff, M. Ayhan Kose, and Shang-Jin Wei
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
We review the large literature on various economic policies that could help developing economies effectively manage the process of financial globalization. Our central findings indicate that policies promoting financial sector development, institutional quality and trade openness appear to help developing countries derive the benefits of globalization. Similarly, sound macroeconomic policies are an important prerequisite for ensuring that financial integration is beneficial. However, our analysis also suggests that the relationship between financial integration and economic policies is a complex one and that there are unavoidable tensions inherent in evaluating the risks and benefits associated with financial globalization. In light of these tensions, structural and macroeconomic policies often need to be tailored to take into account country specific circumstances to improve the risk-benefit tradeoffs of financial integration. Ultimately, it is essential to see financial integration not just as an isolated policy goal but as part of a broader package of reforms and supportive macroeconomic policies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank: It's Time to Separate the Conjoined Twins

Author:
Lex Rieffel
Publication Date:
09-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The IMF and the World Bank were created in 1944 to be at the center of the international financial system, but they have not adapted well to the far- reaching changes in the global economy over the past twenty years. Their legitimacy has been called into question due to their antiquated governance structures, and as a consequence they are losing relevance and effectiveness.
Topic:
Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and International Monetary Fund

14. Can America Still Lead in the Global Economy?

Author:
Lael Brainard and David Lipton
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
From the vantage point of 2008, some of the most memorable initiatives of U.S. international economic leadership—the Paris and Louvre Accords, the support for Poland and Russia after the fall of communism, the Uruguay Round, and the Mexican Financing Loan—seem like quaint reminders of a simpler time. In the coming years, the exercise of international economic leadership will surely prove more complex than in the past. The very success of the American vision of a global spread of vibrant and competitive markets has created a huge, rapidly integrating private economy of trade and finance much less amenable to guidance, let alone control, by governments. Unlike in diplomacy and defense, where non state actors are growing in importance but still a side show, in inter- national economics, households, corporations, labor unions, and non-profits are now the dominant players in most parts of the world. While they respond to national laws and policies, their interests are varied and their operations often span borders.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Paris, Poland, Uruguay, and Mexico

15. Candidate Issue Index: Trade

Author:
Lael Brainard
Publication Date:
02-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Compiled by Brookings Institution experts, this chart is part of a series of issue indices to be published during the 2008 Presidential election cycle. The policy issues included in this series were chosen by Brookings staff and represent the most critical topics facing America's next President. Available voting records and statements vary based on time in office. For candidates who have not been a Member of Congress, public statements are noted when available.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and America

16. Tracking Trade Votes

Author:
Lael Brainard
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
No abstract is available.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements

17. A Statistical Analysis of the Quality of Impact Assessment in the European Union

Author:
Caroline Cecot, Robert Hahn, and Andrea Renda
Publication Date:
05-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In 2002, the European Union required that an impact assessment be done for all major initiatives, including many regulations, directives, decisions, and communications. This paper is the first paper to statistically analyze these impact assessments using the largest available dataset. As a benchmark, we compare our results in the EU with recent results on the quality of regulatory analysis in the U.S. We score impact assessments using a number of objective measures of quality, such as whether a particular assessment provides any quantitative information on costs or benefits, and use the scores to develop two indices of quality.
Topic:
Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe

18. Making Trade Agreements Relevant for Poor Countries: Why Dispute Settlement Is Not Enough

Author:
Bernard Hoekman and Chad Brown
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Poor countries are rarely challenged in formal WTO trade disputes for failing to live up to commitments, reducing the benefits of their participation in international trade agreements. This paper examines the political-economic causes of the failure to challenge poor countries and discusses the static and dynamic costs and externality implications of this failure. Given the weak incentives to enforce WTO rules and disciplines against small and poor members, bolstering the transparency function of the WTO is important to make trade agreements more relevant to trade constituencies in developing countries. While our focus is on the WTO system, our arguments also apply to reciprocal North-South trade agreements.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

19. The Private Sector in the Fight Against Global Poverty

Author:
Lael Brainard
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In recent weeks, aging rockers have reclaimed young fans by joining movie stars, faith-based groups, and leaders of developing nations in a global campaign to "Make Poverty History." World leaders have taken note: the push is on for a massive boost in official assistance flows and the cancellation of official debt. But as preparations move forward for the first heads of state stocktaking of the Millennium Development Goals at the United Nations in September, scant attention is being directed at the most powerful engine of growth and poverty alleviation: the private sector. This despite the fact that the past two decades have witnessed an enormous shift in resources away from the public sector to private hands, and private flows to developing countries are now more than twice the level of public flows.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Poverty
Political Geography:
United Nations

20. U.S. Trade Policy Toward China: Discrimination and its Implications

Author:
Rachel McCulloch and Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
The bilateral relationship with China has become a major focus of U.S. trade policy. This paper examines recent U.S. policy toward imports from China, highlighting important explicitly and implicitly discriminatory elements. Discriminatory restrictions on U.S. trade with China protect competing domestic industries as well as non-Chinese foreign suppliers with an established presence in the U.S. market. Unlike discriminatory U.S. treatment of Japan in the 1980s, in which "gray-area" measures like voluntary export restraints were prominent, most U.S. actions toward China are fully consistent with current WTO rules, including the special terms of China's 2001 WTO accession. However, as with earlier discriminatory actions directed primarily at Japan, U.S. trade policy toward China is likely to have complex effects on global trade flows and may produce outcomes far different from those intended.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States, China, and Asia