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  • Author: Elizabeth Smith
  • Publication Date: 06-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Climate change can increase the risks of violent conflict, create risks to human security, and challenge conflict recovery and peacebuilding in different contexts. In many parts of the world, women and girls are significantly affected by the respective and compounding effects of climate change and conflict. They can also be agents of change in addressing climate change, and peace and security issues. This SIPRI Insights paper explores how the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) national action plans (NAPs) of 80 states frame and respond to climate change and security. It finds that they do so in different ways. Seventeen states include direct mention of climate change in at least one of their plans. Of these, three states include comparatively higher numbers of specific goals and activities referencing climate change in different plans. The paper highlights a need for increased action in the area of climate change in WPS NAPs. It argues for a greater focus on supporting women and girls’ participation in action addressing climate-related security risks, as well as a need to evaluate how climate change is framed as a security risk in the plans.
  • Topic: Security, Climate Change, Women, Peace
  • Political Geography: United States, Finland, Ireland, Global Focus
  • Author: Nan Tian, Diego Lopes da Silva
  • Publication Date: 08-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Official development assistance (ODA) plays an important and complementary role in promoting development in low- and middle-income states. Previous research in the literature has shown that ODA can have unintended con­sequences by enabling recipient states to shift ‘freed-up’ resources away from activities now funded by ODA to other spending categories. This literature has argued that the ‘freed-up’ resources could be funding military spending. This SIPRI Insights on Peace and Security queries these con­clusions and contributes to the debate by placing the relation­ship between ODA and military spending in context. The results show that, for low-income states, armed conflict is a major explanatory factor in determin­ing the positive association between increases in ODA and increases in military spending. While the existence of armed conflict drives both higher military spending and the need for higher levels of ODA, peace helps to lower military spending and states’ reliance on external aid.
  • Topic: Development, Military Spending, Conflict, Peace, Sustainability
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Fei Su, Dr Vincent Boulanin, Johan Turell
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: The ever-increasing dependence on information and communication technologies (ICTs) in all aspects of society raises many challenges for national crisis management agencies. These agencies need to prepare not only for new cyberthreats and cyber vulnerabilities, but also for the fact that the aftermath of a cyber incident affecting critical infrastructure has its own challenges. On the one hand, the practical disruptions caused by an isolated incident can be hard to predict and control and, on the other hand, the consequences and perceptions of an incident whose cause is not yet determined can be equally hard to manage. Uncertainty around the cause of the incident and remedial actions being taken often lead to public speculation and political pressure to respond in ways that could create political tensions, and possibly conflict, between countries. This policy paper is the result of a nine-month research project that was jointly conducted by SIPRI and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) on cyber-incident management. It explores what national crisis management authorities can do to improve their cyber-incident prevention, detection and response strategies and also how they can do better to deal with the larger societal and potentially political aftermath. It investigates why and how cyber incidents may lead to escalatory scenarios and how these scenarios can be avoided and contained using various de-escalatory approaches. It comprises an introduction providing background and the inspiration of this report (section I); four sections that explore the dynamics of escalation and de-escalation from conceptual (section II), analytical (sections III–IV) and empirical (section V) standpoints; and two sections that present the main findings and recommendations (sections VI–VII).
  • Topic: Security, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Cybersecurity
  • Political Geography: Sweden, Global Focus
  • Author: Dr Vincent Boulanin, Kolja Brockmann, Luke Richards
  • Publication Date: 11-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: In 2018 the United Nations Secretary-General identified responsible research and innovation (RRI) in science and technology as an approach for academia, the private sector and governments to work on the mitigation of risks that are posed by new technologies. This report explores how RRI could help to address the humanitarian and strategic risks that may result from the development, diffusion and military use of artificial intelligence (AI) and thereby achieve arms control objectives on the military use of AI. The report makes recommendations on how the arms control community could build on existing responsible AI initiatives and export control and compliance systems to engage with academia and the private sector in the governance of risks to international peace and security posed by the military use of AI.
  • Topic: Security, Science and Technology, Peace, Artificial Intelligence
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Jiayi Zhou, Lisa Marie Dellmuth, Kevin M. Adams, Tina-Simone Neset, Nina von Uexkull
  • Publication Date: 11-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Assessing the prospects for Zero Hunger—Sustainable Development Goal 2—requires an understanding of food security that goes beyond developmental or humanitarian issues, to include linkages with geopolitics. Geopolitical challenges cut across areas such as natural resources, trade, armed conflict and climate change where unilateralism and zero-sum approaches to security directly hamper efforts to eradicate hunger and undermine the frameworks that govern those efforts. The report provides an overview of how geopolitics interacts with these areas. Competition for agricultural resources can be both a cause and a consequence of geopolitical rivalry. International trade, while essential for food security, also creates vulnerabilities through supply disruptions—sometimes politically motivated. Armed conflict is a driver of food insecurity, which can itself feed into social unrest and violence. Climate change interacts with all three phenomena, reshaping both the physical landscape and political calculus. These overlapping linkages require further integrated policy engagement and analysis.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Development, International Trade and Finance, Governance, Food Security, Geopolitics, Peace
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Malin Mobjörk, Florian Krampe, Kheira Tarif
  • Publication Date: 11-2020
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Policymakers are increasingly concerned with the climate-related security risks—the adverse effects of climate change on peace and security. This SIPRI Policy Brief outlines four interrelated pathways between climate change and conflict: (a) livelihoods, (b) migration and mobility, (c) armed group tactics, and (d) elite exploitation. These illustrate the relationship between short- and long-term environmental changes linked to climate change; their impact on the root causes and dynamics of violent conflict; and the critical role of human action, reaction and inaction in mediating violent outcomes. As a policymaking tool, pathways help to identify and navigate the political space for mitigating violent conflict. They can support decision makers in navigating these complex relationships in conflict-affected and climate-exposed regions by integrating local context into analyses of the security and conflict risks of climate change. Pathways also help to facilitate policy planning in areas such as livelihoods, mobility, resource management and governance.
  • Topic: Security, Climate Change, Development, Peace
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Karolina Eklöw, Florian Krampe, Malin Mobjörk, Dan Smith
  • Publication Date: 02-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Climate-related events left no region unaffected in 2018. These events demonstrate how climate change impacts are worsening. Despite increased geopolitical tensions that seem to undermine the Agenda 2030 or the Paris Agreement, global and regional organisations have been able to achieve some progress in addressing and mitigating climate-related security risks. This report, prepared for the Planetary Security Conference taking place in The Hague on 19–20 February 2019, feeds into the conversation by sketching the past year’s trends in relation to climate and security.
  • Topic: Security, Climate Change, Geopolitics, Risk, Peace
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Jaïr van der Lijn
  • Publication Date: 06-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: The third phase of the New Geopolitics of Peace Operations (NGP) initiative seeks to enhance understanding of how peace operations interact with non-traditional security challenges such as terrorism and violent extremism, irregular migration, piracy, organized crime and environmental degradation. It aims to identify the various perceptions, positions and interests of the relevant stakeholders. By engaging key stakeholders and mapping the policy space for the potential role of peace operations in addressing non-traditional security challenges, it also aims to stimulate open dialogue, cooperation and mutual understanding. Four dialogue meetings organized by SIPRI and the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) will focus on a different non-traditional security challenge. Each will be preceded by a background paper that sets the baseline for the meeting: giving an overview of the main developments and discussions regarding peace operations and the specific challenge to be discussed. The initiative will conclude with a final report based on the outcomes of these meetings that will advance the discussion on peace operations and non‑traditional security challenges. This phase of the NGP initiative is supported by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland, co-sponsored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ethiopia, and in continued partnership with FES.
  • Topic: Security, Conflict, Multilateralism, Peace
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Camilla Born, Karolina Eklöw, Malin Mobjörk
  • Publication Date: 09-2019
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: The security implications of climate change have increasingly been debated in the United Nations Security Council. Yet, there is a growing concern by many UN member states about the lack of adequate responses to the risks that climate change poses to peace and security. In recent years, some modest but notable changes at the UN have taken place, of which the creation of the Climate Security Mechanism is the primary example. This SIPRI Policy Brief summarizes the recent evolution of the climate security debate in the UN and highlights three priority areas for future action: (a) supporting and establishing climate security action in the field, (b) nurturing knowledge provision and (c) building sustainable sources of financing for climate security action. All these steps will require committed actors, innovation and long-term investment. Escalating climate impacts make the mitigation of climate-related security risks by the UN and its member states not only demanded but urgent. Recent institutional progress demonstrates that committed and cooperative actors can drive institutional change. This progress must be bolstered and action delivered in the field.
  • Topic: Security, Climate Change, Environment, United Nations, Risk
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Jaïr van der Lijn
  • Publication Date: 02-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Multilateral peace operations are increasingly confronting a set of interrelated and mutually reinforcing security challenges that are relatively new to them, that do not respect borders, and that have causes and effects which cut right across the international security, peacebuilding and development agendas. As a result, the New Geopolitics of Peace Operations III: Non‑Traditional Security Challenges initiative seeks to enhance understanding about peace operations and non-traditional security challenges such as terrorism and violent extremism, irregular migration, piracy, organized crime and environmental degradation. As a part of this initiative, this SIPRI Background Paper explores the ‘non-traditional’ security challenges that organized crime presents to multilateral peace operations.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Tytti Erasto, Sibylle Bauer, Shannon N. Kile, Peter Topychkanov
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Recognizing that the current international context is hardly conducive to arms control and disarmament, SIPRI working paper ‘Setting the stage for progress towards nuclear disarmament’ identifies 10 practical steps to revitalize the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the principal normative and legal foundation of the global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime. At the same time, it recognizes the NPT’s inherent compatibility with other disarmament initiatives, most notably the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. In addition to restoring a sense of common purpose and addressing ‘old’ nuclear weapon-related risks, the paper highlights ‘new’ risks arising from developments in conventional capabilities and emerging technologies. The overarching objective is to set the stage for future concrete steps and initiatives to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and to eventually eliminate them.
  • Topic: Peace Studies, Nuclear Power
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Kolja Brockmann, Robert E. Kelley
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Additive manufacturing (AM) machines are multipurpose manufacturing instruments that rely on the transfer of build-information in a digital form. AM is a rapidly developing technology with a growing range of applications, especially in the aerospace and defence industry. It is also generating concerns about its potential to create ways of weakening or circumventing dual-use and arms export controls. This SIPRI Paper examines (a) the state of the art in AM; (b) its ability to produce military equipment and dual-use items; (c) the application of export controls to AM and their implementation at the national level; and (d) the challenges that implementation and compliance present for governments, companies and research institutes. The conclusions summarize potential options and considerations when expanding controls on AM. This is one of two research papers that address the closely related issues of controlling transfers of software and technology and applying exports controls to AM. Taken together, the papers examine some of the most challenging issues that governments, companies and research institutes in the European Union (EU) and the wider world are facing when they seek to effectively implement dual-use and arms export controls. The papers also address a range of topics that are under active discussion within the multilateral export control regimes and in connection with the recast of the EU Dual-use Regulation. For the second paper, 'The Challenge of Software and Technology Transfers to Non-proliferation Efforts: Implementing and Complying with Export Controls', see here. Funding for the concept paper was provided by the US Department of State’s Export Control and Related Border Security (EXBS) Program.
  • Topic: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, Disarmament, Exports
  • Political Geography: Europe, Global Focus
  • Author: Marina Caparini
  • Publication Date: 06-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: This discussion paper connects the sustaining peace agenda and conflict prevention with the police component in United Nations (UN) peace operations. UN Police (UNPOL) play a critical role in conflict prevention through: (a) direct operational actions aimed at mediating disputes, defusing tensions and deterring violence; (b) structural prevention linked to mentoring, training and advising host state police, and the development of more effective, accountable and legitimate law enforcement institutions; and (c) systemic prevention through support for international norms and mechanisms to combat transnational organized crime, illicit arms flows and human trafficking. UNPOL’s role in conflict prevention can be further developed by a stronger focus on relationships with host state counterparts and civil society; more qualitative assessments on drivers of conflict and the inclusion of such assessments in early warning systems as well as UN reporting; and greater integration of UNPOL contributions to UN conflict prevention efforts.
  • Topic: Security, Development, United Nations, Governance, Conflict, Peace, Police, Justice
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Yeonju Jung, Gulzhan Asylbek Kyzy
  • Publication Date: 05-2018
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: The need for systematic data collection on anti-vehicle mine (AVM) incidents was first recognised during joint research by the GICHD and SIPRI for a study on the humanitarian and developmental impact of anti-vehicle mines published in October 2014. As a response, both organizations have been collecting global data on AVM incidents since 2015 with a view to improving evidence on and identifying trends in AVM impact. Data is available on interactive and regularly updated online maps. This report presents and analyses AVM incident data from 2017. The GICHD and SIPRI recorded 169 incidents in 2017 that were related or suspected to be related to AVMs in 24 states and territories.
  • Topic: Development, Peace, Sustainability, Landmines, Mapping
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Janani Vivekananda
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: This report looks at progress made on policy and practical responses to climate-security risks for 2016-2017. Using the independent G7 commissioned report A New Climate for Peace as a basis, and building on last year’s report, Towards A Global Resilience Agenda, this year’s report sets out the key achievements, pitfalls and new challenges facing the foreign policy community working to reduce climate-fragility risks
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Dr Vincent Boulanin, Maaike Verbruggen
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Article 36 of the 1977 Additional Protocol to the 1949 Geneva Conventions imposes a practical obligation on states to determine whether ‘in the study, development, acquisition or adoption of a new weapon, means or method of warfare’ its use would ‘in some or all circumstances be prohibited by international law’. This mechanism is often colloquially referred to as an ‘Article 36 review’.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Aurélien Tobie
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Initially, the 2012 crisis affecting Mali was understood to be primarily focused on the northern regions of the country, as were the previous rebellions that had been errupting at regular intervals since independence. However, the dramatic increase since 2015 in violence targeting security forces, elected or traditional officials, market places and schools in Mopti, the central region of Mali, has shifted attention
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Mark Bromley
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: This paper seeks to inform discussion European Commission’s proposed ‘recast’ of the EU Dual-use Regulation—the main regulatory instrument for EU member states’ controls on the trade in dual-use items. The proposal, which is currently being examined by the European Parliament and Council of the European Union, is part of a review of the Regulation which was launched in 2011
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Lisa Marie Dellmuth
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Climate change poses a new class of security challenges that is confronting societies worldwide. Increased risk of famine, destroyed infrastructure, houses and shelter, and violent conflicts might all be consequences of climate change through gradual changes to ecosystems and extreme weather events. As a way to mitigate these challenges, states have delegated increased power to intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). This Fact Sheet summarizes the key findings of the first systematic review of research on IGOs and climate security, and the implications of existing studies for the theory and practice of global climate security governance.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Jiayi Zhou
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Over the past decade, climate change has become increasingly embedded within global security discourse, but whether it should be formally considered as a matter for the international peace and security agenda remains contested. Moreover, while the adverse effects of climate change on natural, societal and governance systems clearly amounts to a threat that is transnational in scope, the international response remains dependent on positions taken at a national level. The United Nations Security Council represents a key forum and lens into this debate, within which national governments’ positions on climate security continue to diverge
  • Topic: Climate Change, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Henrik Hallgren, Richard Ghiasy
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is the result of a convergence of multiple Chinese domestic drivers and external developments. It holds significant potential to contribute to greater connectivity and stability in participating states, yet there is a need to include a wider spectrum of local and international stakeholders in order to address concerns and mitigate backlashes.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Author: Dr Vincent Boulanin, Maaike Verbruggen
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
  • Abstract: Article 36 of the 1977 Additional Protocol I to the 1949 Geneva Conventions imposes a practical obligation on states to review the legality of all new weapons, means or methods of warfare before they are used in an armed conflict. To encourage more widespread compliance with the obligation of Article 36 and support confidence building in the area of legal reviews, SIPRI has developed a compendium of existing national Article 36 review procedures. The compendium describes how the review process is conducted in the following countries: Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States.
  • Topic: International Security
  • Political Geography: Global Focus