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Begin New Search Topic Agriculture Political Geography Africa Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London Publication Year within 10 Years Publication Year within 5 Years

1. Rwanda’s Agricultural Transformation Revisited: Stagnating Food Production, Systematic Overestimation, and a Flawed Performance Contract System

Author:
Sebastian Heinen
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Sustained productivity growth in the agricultural sector is a key component of a country’s path out of poverty. The quantitative development of Rwanda’s agriculture in recent years has been widely regarded as a success story and as further evidence for the effectiveness of its government to bring about sustained socio-economic progress. However, simple statistical analysis of publicly available data shows that food crop production volumes and yields have actually stagnated over the last fifteen years. Moreover, agricultural output was significantly overestimated from 2008-2013 and then silently corrected downwards in Rwandan and international datasets. As a result, the country’s economic growth numbers are very likely inflated as well. After presenting substantive evidence for these claims, this paper discusses three issues arising from them. First, it argues that yield-raising effects of massive mineral fertiliser application and other ‘Green Revolution’ technologies were offset by the enormous disruption resulting from the government’s rigorously enforced agricultural reform programme. Second, it finds that massive food crop production overestimation likely proliferated due to a flawed performance-based governance system that incentivised bureaucrats and farmers to tweak the numbers instead of compelling them to achieve actual results. Even more, this inflation prevented early detection of agricultural stagnation and consequently also the required adaptation of agricultural policy. Third, the exceptional ‘brand-building’ capabilities of the Rwandan ruling elite led to the preservation of its false reputation of having achieved skyrocketing yield growth. As a silver lining, a few recently revised reform components point to the possibility of an eventually more successful agricultural transformation, whose chances might hinge on the government’s ability to allow more discretion of bureaucrats and more inclusion of local knowledge.
Topic:
Agriculture, Food, Rural, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

2. An Analysis of the use of Chemical Pesticides and their Impact on Yields, Farmer Income and Agricultural Sustainability: The Case for Smallholder Farmers in Ethiopia

Author:
Aparna Rao and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
In economic theory, the agricultural sector plays an undisputed role in growth, development and poverty reduction in a country. The sector is pivotal for a vast majority of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), given the large number of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. With the constraints on land expansion and the dual threat of climate change and an ever increasing population, agricultural productivity has become a key matter of concern in agricultural economics. Given this, a vast majority of literature focuses on improving productivity to meet food demand at any cost. A large percentage of it is focused on the use of pesticides, pre-harvest, to eradicate pests and diseases that lead to losses in the produce. As a result, there has been a significant increase in global pesticide usage over the last few years.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Economics, Poverty, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Ethiopia

3. Climate Change, Chemical Fertilisers and Sustainable Development – Panel Evidence from Tanzanian Maize Farmers

Author:
Christiane Heisse and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
We study the impact of rainfall risk on fertiliser use by Tanzanian maize farmers using newly available spatially disaggregated agronomic survey data on Tanzanian maize producers. We show that fertiliser use is highly sensitive to rainfall risks. Our discussion embeds these findings into the wider debate around environmental sustainability and mineral fertilisers, thus relating directly to the country’s government efforts of climate mainstreaming into their (agricultural) policies. We conclude that chemical fertilisers are useful for agricultural productivity growth but that they should be used to supplement more economically and environmentally sustainable practices.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Environment, Sustainability, and Farming
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania

4. Regression Tree Analysis of soil Fertility and Agro-Economic Practices and the Effects on Yield in Tanzania

Author:
Jan Lietava and Risa Morimoto
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:
Food security and yield production have been extensively studied in regard to fertiliser response in the context of Sub-Saharan Africa. Soil fertility gradients within farms interact with other complex factors such as plot management, alongside bio-physical as well as socio-economic constraints, to create extensive heterogeneity in yield production. Hence, blanket recommendations regarding increasing inputs may not just lead to limited or no change in productivity but may affect long term sustainability. To try and explore the relationships between these factors, Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis was used to simplify the effect of plot management decisions. Data was from the focal plots of the 2016 and 2017 Tanzanian Agronomy Panel Survey (TAPS 2017; n = 580) with a range of yields and socio-economic contexts (2.10tha-1 – 3.68tha-1). Results suggested that in low resource fields, management factors are subservient to extreme soil degradation while in high resource fields good management such as optimal planting are needed for maximum predicted yield (4.48tha-1; n = 51). Boundary line analysis was conducted, and maximum yield-nutrient response values calculated. The yield gap obtained suggested only up to 60% of locally obtainable yield is reached, highlighting the necessary balance between intensity of resource use and good management for sustainable and sufficient crop production, especially in the case of extreme soil degradation.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Environment, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Africa and Tanzania