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12. Networks, Trust, and Trade: The Microeconomics of China–North Korea Integration
- Author:
- Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- A central hope of engagement with North Korea is that increased cross-border exchange will encourage the strengthening of institutions, and eventually, a moderation of the country's foreign policy. An unprecedented survey of Chinese enterprises operating in North Korea reveals that trade is largely dominated by state entities on the North Korean side, although the authors cannot rule out de facto privatization of exchange. Little trust is evident beyond the relationships among Chinese and North Korean state-owned enterprises. Formal networks and dispute settlement mechanisms are weak and do not appear to have consequences for relational contracting. Rather, firms rely on personal ties for identifying counterparties and resolving disputes. The weakness of formal institutions implies that the growth in exchange does not conform with the expectations of the engagement model and may prove self-limiting. The results also cast doubt that integration between China and North Korea, at least as it is currently proceeding, will foster reform and opening.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
13. Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian, Aaditya Mattoo, and Prachi Mishra
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, known as the "spillover effect." Recent theory is used to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. The variation is used—afforded by disaggregated trade data—across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. The results show robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Estimates suggest that, on average, a 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts a developing country's exports of a typical 4-digit Harmonized System (HS) product category to third markets by about 1.5 to 2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China
14. Chinese Investment in Latin American Resources: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
- Author:
- Theodore H. Moran, Julia Muir, and Barbara Kotschwar
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- China's need for vast amounts of minerals to sustain its high economic growth rate has led Chinese investors to acquire stakes in natural resource companies, extend loans to mining and petroleum investors, and write long-term procurement contracts for oil and minerals in Africa, Latin America, Australia, Canada, and other resource-rich regions. These efforts to procure raw materials might be exacerbating the problems of strong demand; "locking up" natural resource supplies, gaining preferential access to available output, and extending control over the world's extractive industries. But Chinese investment need not have a zero-sum effect if Chinese procurement arrangements expand, diversify, and make more competitive the global supplier system. Previous Peterson Institute research (see Moran 2010) and new research undertaken in this paper, show that the majority of Chinese investments and procurement arrangements serve to help diversify and make more competitive the portion of the world natural resource base located in Latin America. For a more comprehensive analysis, the authors conduct a structured comparison of four Peruvian mines with foreign ownership: two Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-based, and two Chinese. They examine what conditions or policy measures are most effective in inducing Chinese investors to adopt international industry standards and best-practices, and which are not. They distill from this case study some lessons for other countries in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere that intend to use Chinese investment to develop their extractive sectors: first, that financial markets bring accountability; second, that the host country regulatory environment makes a significant difference; and third, that foreign investment is a catalyst for change.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- China, Canada, Latin America, and Australia
15. Foreign Manufacturing Multinationals and the Transformation of the Chinese Economy: New Measurements, New Perspectives
- Author:
- Theodore H. Moran
- Publication Date:
- 04-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- What is the relationship between foreign manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) and the expansion of indigenous technological and managerial technological capabilities among Chinese firms? China has been remarkably successful in designing industrial policies, joint venture requirements, and technology transfer pressures to use FDI to create indigenous national champions in a handful of prominent sectors: high speed rail transport, information technology, auto assembly, and an emerging civil aviation sector. But what is striking in the aggregate data is how relatively thin the layer of horizontal and vertical spillovers from foreign manufacturing multinationals to indigenous Chinese firms has proven to be. Despite the large size of manufacturing FDI inflows, the impact of multinational corporate investment in China has been largely confined to building plants that incorporate capital, technology, and managerial expertise controlled by the foreigner. As the skill-intensity of exports increases, the percentage of the value of the final product that derives from imported components rises sharply. China has remained a low value-added assembler of more sophisticated inputs imported from abroad—a “workbench” economy. Where do the gains from FDI in China end up? While manufacturing MNCs may build plants in China, the largest impact from deployment of worldwide earnings is to bolster production, employment, R, and local purchases in their home markets. For the United States the most recent data show that US-headquartered MNCs have 70 percent of their operations, make 89 percent of their purchases, spend 87 percent of their R dollars, and locate more than half of their workforce within the US economy—this is where most of the earnings from FDI in China are delivered.
- Topic:
- Economics, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Israel
16. Renminbi Rules: The Conditional Imminence of the Reserve Currency Transition
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian
- Publication Date:
- 09-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Against the backdrop of the recent financial crisis and the ongoing rapid changes in the world economy, the fate of the dollar as the premier international reserve currency is under scrutiny. This paper attempts to answer whether the Chinese renminbi will eclipse the dollar, what will be the timing of, and the prerequisites for this transition, and which of the two countries controls the outcome. The key finding, based on analyzing the last 110 years, is that the size of an economy—measured not just in terms of GDP but also trade and the strength of the external financial position—is the key fundamental correlate of reserve currency status. Further, the conventional view that sterling persisted well beyond the strength of the UK economy is overstated. Although the United States overtook the United Kingdom in terms of GDP in the 1870s, it became dominant in a broader sense encompassing trade and finance only at the end of World War I. And since the dollar overtook sterling in the mid-1920s, the lag between currency dominance and economic dominance was about 10 years rather than the 60-plus years traditionally believed. Applying these findings to the current context suggests that the renminbi could become the premier reserve currency by the end of this decade, or early next decade. But China needs to fulfill a number of conditions—making the reniminbi convertible and opening up its financial system to create deep and liquid markets—to realize renminbi preeminence. China seems to be moving steadily in that direction, and renminbi convertibility will proceed apace not least because it offers China's policymakers a political exit out of its mercantilist growth strategy. The United States cannot in any serious way prevent China from moving in that direction.
- Topic:
- Economics, Markets, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
17. Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the Renminbi
- Author:
- Nicholas R. Lardy and Patrick Douglass
- Publication Date:
- 02-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Despite an erosion of consensus on its benefits, capital account convertibility remains a long-term goal of China. This paper identifies three major preconditions for convertibility in China: a strong domestic banking system, relatively developed domestic financial markets, and an equilibrium exchange rate. The authors examine each of these in turn and find that, in significant respects, China does not yet meet any of the conditions necessary for convertibility. They then evaluate China's progress to date on capital account liberalization, including recent efforts to promote renminbi internationalization and greater use of the renminbi in trade settlement. The paper concludes with an overview of remaining obstacles to convertibility and policy recommendations.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, and Monetary Policy
- Political Geography:
- China
18. A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations
- Author:
- Arvind Subramanian and Aaditya Mattoo
- Publication Date:
- 12-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Until recently, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has been an effective framework for cooperation because it has continually adapted to changing economic realities. The current Doha Agenda is an aberration because it does not reflect one of the biggest shifts in the international economic and trading system: the rise of China. Even though China will have a stake in maintaining trade openness, an initiative that builds on but redefines the Doha Agenda would anchor China more fully in the multilateral trading system. Such an initiative would have two pillars. First, a new negotiating agenda that would include the major issues of interest to China and its trading partners, and thus unleash the powerful reciprocal liberalization mechanism that has driven the WTO process to previous successes. Second, new restraints on bilateralism and regionalism that would help preserve incentives for maintaining the current broad non-discriminatory trading order.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- China and Israel
19. The G-20 and International Financial Institution Governance
- Author:
- Edwin M. Truman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses the agenda for the Group of Twenty (G-20) leaders' meeting in Seoul, Korea in November 2010. This is an opportunity and challenge for Asian leaders in particular. Their test will be, first, to demonstrate that they can responsibly advance economic recovery. They must also deliver on institutional reform, in particular of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). I advocate a substantial expansion of the IMF's role as lender of last resort that is integrated with the surveillance role of the IMF in the form of comprehensive prequalification for IMF assistance and policy advice and a substantial increase in the IMF's financial resources. I also propose an approach to meaningful reform of the distribution of IMF quotas along with limiting European seats on the IMF executive board.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, Asia, and Korea
20. Trade Disputes Between China and the United States: Growing Pains so Far, Worse Ahead?
- Author:
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Jared C. Woollacott
- Publication Date:
- 12-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- This study covers the history of Sino-US trade relations with a particular focus on the past decade, during which time each has been a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Providing a brief history of 19th and 20th century economic relations, this paper examines in detail the trade disputes that have arisen between China and the United States over the past decade, giving dollar estimates for the trade flows at issue. Each country has partaken in their share of protectionist measures, however, US measures have been characteristically defensive, protecting declining industries, while Chinese measures have been characteristically offensive, promoting nascent industries. We also cover administrative and legislation actions within each country that have yet to be the subject of formal complaint at the WTO. This includes an original and comprehensive quantitative summary of US Section 337 intellectual property rights cases. While we view the frictions in Sino-US trade a logical consequence of the rapid increase in flows between the two countries, we caution that each country work within the WTO framework and respect any adverse decisions it delivers so that a protracted protectionist conflict does not emerge. We see the current currency battle as one potential catalyst for such conflict if US and Chinese policymakers fail to manage it judiciously.
- Topic:
- Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States and China
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