1. Which Way Cuba? Political transformations, social deterioration and attempted dialogue
- Author:
- Armando Chaguaced and Borghild Tønnessen-Krokan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper attempts to summarize the status of the Cuban reform processes at the end of 2013 (including some elements from early 2014). It is part of a project at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, where we are following both the economic reforms and – in this case – the political implications of economic reforms. The article will take as a point of departure reforms and changes that may be observed in the following areas: agricultural transformations, possible widening space for entrepreneurs, the Mariel Special Development Zone, the new cooperative sector, the emergence of a new dual state-private structure in the economy, a discussion of different Cuban agents of change, considerations about an evolving international context. Towards the end of the paper, we attempt to assess these empirical trends against the backdrop of some theoretical considerations for political transformations, partly with reference to other cases, before the paper draws up three possible scenarios for Cuba towards and even after 2018, when the great generational shift in the Cuban leadership is supposed to take place. This Report also contains an article going more in depth about the deterioration of social services in Cuba, written by the Cuban political scientist Armando Chaguaceda. Since this article is printed in Spanish, a summary in English is included in the present article. The key question behind this paper is whether and to what extent a promotion of economic pluralism is taking place in such a way that it may lead to political pluralism and de-concentration of power, or contrary, whether there will be a re-concentration of both economic and political power in the party, state and military nomenclature.
- Political Geography:
- Cuba