Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
As Tehran invests efforts to improve relations with Russia, Israel will have to maintain a dialogue with Moscow to safeguard its military and diplomatic freedom of action.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Strategic Stability
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Re-designating the Houthi movement as a terrorist organization after the drone attack on the UAE is imperative. This, along with overt support for the UAE, would deliver a sharp message and likely have a beneficial effect on Iranian conduct in Vienna.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Yemen, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is time to revive the spirit of Ben-Gurion’s famous dictum from the days of WWII regarding the stance toward the British: “We will fight the war as if there were no White Paper, and we will fight the White Paper as if there were no war.” This makes sense concerning Israel’s dilemma towards the US in the context of the renewal of the JCPOA.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, and Military Strategy
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad might have decided to cement his friendship with Tehran, fearing that Moscow’s capacity to invest in Syria’s reconstruction would be negatively affected. Assad may also try to play Iran against its Gulf rivals to draw resources from both.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, and Peace
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A notable change of the rules of engagement has taken place, in which the totality of Iranian actions will now be opposed, also on Iranian soil. The strike on the UAV fleet at Kermanshah and the assassination of Colonel Khodai in Tehran were the first manifestations of this new approach.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel offers the US military and, even more so, the intelligence community critical support. For example, the US Army has gained through the acquisition of the Iron Dome missile defense system, tank technology such as reactive armor, solutions to the challenge of terrorist improvised explosive devices, mine-clearing devices, and much more. In turn, the US defense establishment –specifically CENTCOM, now that Israel is in its area of responsibility – increasingly reflects Israeli perspectives in Washington policy debates. This has recently been the case on Iran.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
We should not forget that moderate Arab states are watching Israeli behavior, especially in the Gulf. Without determined and effective action, Israel’s allies in the region, wary of American withdrawal and fearful of Iran, will be reluctant to rely on Israel and could later move closer to Tehran.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The latest protests in Iran have different characteristics from previous protests that symbolize a generational transition, reflecting an ideological gap between the old leadership of the revolution and the younger generation in Iran
Topic:
Social Movement, Protests, Ideology, Youth Movement, and Age
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
By ignoring Israel’s views on an issue critical to its security, Washington will cast a dark shadow over Israel’s status as a key American ally in the Middle East.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and JCPOA
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The US should be appreciative of any significant delay in Iran’s breakout timetable towards a nuclear weapon. The time gained can and should be used to negotiate a “longer, stronger” agreement.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The West is focusing on the tragic humanitarian costs of the war in Yemen while turning a blind eye to the significant strategic implications of a Houthi/Iranian victory. This approach imperils Middle Eastern and Western security.
Topic:
Security, Civil War, Conflict, and Humanitarian Crisis
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel-US dialogue is necessary about Iran’s nuclear program, since a good agreement with Iran is a clear Israeli interest. But Israel must be prepared with a military option against Iran, as a last resort.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, and Peace
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should exploit the expanding rift between Ankara and Tehran to normalize its relations with Turkey. This also could bring Turkey into the circle of countries supporting the Abraham Accords.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Peace
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Many have raised understandable moral qualms (and practical questions) about conduct of war in Yemen. Indeed, the coalition fighting the Houthi uprising should be more attentive to the loss of innocent lives. But allowing Iran’s proxies to win the war in Yemen would have dangerous political and far-reaching strategic consequences for Israel, the region, and US interests.
Topic:
Civil War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Intervention
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Only an integrated political, military and economic strategy targeting the Iranian system in all its aspects, with a long-term commitment to local allies and the mission, can succeed.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Strategic Interests, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A firm stand at this critical juncture may prove to be of use as part of the effort to bring Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table on terms more acceptable to the US and to Trump’s regional allies, including Israel.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, Denuclearization, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It is not in America’s interest for Israel to be perceived as an obedient lap dog. On the contrary, keeping Israel’s options open, or even enhancing them, will ultimately prove to be of value to the US.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Alliance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The American hope for the resumption of the talks, and the talks themselves, give the Iranians more freedom of action. They restrict US activity in response to mounting provocations.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The way Tehran uses military intimidation, as well as terror by proxy and other means of threatening regional players, must become a factor in the formulation of Western policy towards Iran in this decisive period.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Terrorism, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Even if Israel’s ability to influence US decision-making is limited, it is a serious mistake to downplay Israel’s opposition to the dangerous nuclear accord.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
In the southwest, the outside powers of relevance are Iran and Russia. The arrangement in place from July 2018 until now was the product of an uneasy standoff between them.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Ceasefire
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
America’s decision to leave Afghanistan makes sense only if the plan is to cut losses in an unwinnable war and redirect resources and energies toward a winnable strategy against Iran.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel seeks to disrupt Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and to reverse the Iranian project to entrench its forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Israel, Lebanon, and Syria
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel should seek to persuade the Biden transition team not to offer Iran any premature concessions; it should outline what would constitute an acceptable, “stronger and longer” deal; find other international actors to support the policy suggested by Israel (possibly France and even Russia); and prepare a viable military option, both to strengthen America’s negotiating hand and as an option in the case of failure to reverse Iran’s present course.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
To acquire greater freedom of action in dealing with Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons, Israel needs to minimize tensions with the US on the Palestinian front.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, Peace, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The peace deals between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain mark the completion of an existing process by which the region’s stabilizing forces are banding together against the Iranian threat.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Political stability, and Strategic Stability
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The long-term agreement between the two countries has not been finalized, and its scope and security implications seem to be limited. It is unlikely to force Israel into a complete reconsideration of its economic ties to China.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Hegemony, and Economic Cooperation
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A limited Israeli military operation in Lebanon would strengthen Israeli deterrence against Hezbollah. It also would deepen Iran’s sense of defeat and demonstrate Israel’s determination to check Iran’s malign activity.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Deterrence
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
“Qods Day” reflects Tehran’s determination to annihilate Israel, a pillar of Iranian foreign policy. It also is an important part of “exporting” the Islamic Revolution.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Ideology
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Under the pretext of separation between regime and people, Iran seeks $5 billion in IMF emergency funding to fight COVID-19. This would significantly undermine the pressure on Iran being applied by US sanctions, and therefore the loan should be denied.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Sanctions, Pandemic, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Conflicts persist, and the revisionist powers continue their disruptive behavior. This includes Iranian subversion and acceleration of its nuclear project, as well as Turkey’s expansionism in Syria.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Regional Power
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Now that IRGC leadership in Iran’s space effort is out in the open, it can be expected that its homemade, long-range rockets with a global reach will be revealed soon, as well.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Space, and Strategic Interests
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
In the meantime, it doesn’t seem as though Iran – the driving force behind most of the friction in the Middle East – is changing its plans or abandoning its dreams, whether in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or even Yemen.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Conflict, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Strategic Interests
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
We have five years of experience to compare to the competing assessments of 2015. Now we know that Netanyahu’s gloomy forecast has proven to be the more prescient.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
PIJ is an important part of the Iranian strategy for fighting Israel. The regime in Tehran makes use of charities and other civilian organizations, such as money changers, to transfer funds to its allies in Gaza.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Iran is taking advantage of the crises created by ISIS and the Arab Spring to advance its land route project from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. The American withdrawal from Syria will remove one of the obstacles that stand in Iran’s path, yet Israel has demonstrated its determination to prevent the establishment of this route.
Topic:
Security, Military Strategy, Economic Cooperation, and Strategic Stability
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Syria, and Mediterranean
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
One way Iran’s efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures – in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Iranian media claimed that millions filled the streets on the 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution. The opposition, however says that fewer people participated. Iran’s nuclear program will not protect the regime against the people’s antipathy.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Economic Policy, and State Media
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Governance, Normalization, and Annexation
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Syria
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The attempted resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif didn’t come as a complete surprise. It reflects the utter supremacy of the Revolutionary Guard in the Iranian political sphere.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, and Leadership
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country’s civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The EU’s insistence on preserving the nuclear agreement with Iran and its persistent efforts to establish a mechanism for evading American trade sanctions are encouraging Iran to escalate its subversion throughout Europe.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, and Appeasement
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel, Russia and to some extent the US stand in the way of Iran’s permanent entrenchment in Syria. Israel needs to continue its strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah infrastructures across Syria.
Topic:
Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Conflict, and Hezbollah
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel needs to be prepared for potentially dramatic consequences, including rapid deterioration towards confrontation on all Israel’s borders. Resilience and readiness to act can serve to deter provocations by Iran’s proxies. Ultimately, only a credible military threat from Israel will indicate to friend and foe alike that in a showdown, Iran will be forced to back down.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Regional Power
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel’s government must nurture a spirit of unity and national purpose by building a policy consensus as broad as possible. This is necessary both in preparation for likely combat operations against Iran and its proxies, and in order to respond wisely to the American peace plan and to intelligently manage conflict with the Palestinians.
Topic:
Nationalism, Military Strategy, Governance, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The US, Europe and Israel can force a modification in Erdoğan’s conduct on a wide range of issues, including his duplicity on Iran, support for Hamas in Gaza, subversion in Jerusalem, intervention in Libya, aggression towards Cypriot gas explorations, threats to Kurds of Rojava, and repression at home.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Hegemony, Authoritarianism, Leadership, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Asia
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus must encourage the US to assert a higher military and diplomatic profile as a counterweight to Turkish pressures, Russian and Iranian ambitions, and Chinese inroads.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Military Strategy, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Asia, North America, Egypt, Cyprus, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
American withdrawal from the Middle East must be accompanied by steps that reduce the general impression of a weak US going home in defeat. President Trump should bomb Iran’s nuclear installations.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Deadlock between Washington and Tehran won’t easily turn into détente even if Trump and Rohani do find a way to meet in New York. However, even a tentative rapprochement between the US and Iran would severely strain Israel’s close ties with the White House.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Rivalry, and Appeasement
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Escalating tensions with Iran should be a warning that Tehran’s strategy of training and arming proxy terror groups throughout the Middle East is not being countered aggressively enough.
Topic:
Terrorism, Conflict, Hezbollah, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The move confirms that the current US administration is not interested in heading an alliance of regional forces against Iranian expansionism or Sunni political Islam, but is, like its predecessor, managing imperial decline.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and Alliance
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and North America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
If it weren’t for the Iranian regime’s distress, it might decide to tread water until US President Trump was out of office. But its resources are limited, and the possibility that the ayatollahs might attack Israel out of desperation is very real.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Israel, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel must adapt as quickly as possible to the evolving situation in northern Syria, while continuing to adhere to self-reliance and invest in its military.
Topic:
Civil War, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Conflict
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel is expected by its European interlocutors to condemn Putin over his misdeeds, yet Israel wants to avoid frictions with Russia in order to maintain a free hand to operate against Iranian targets in Syria.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, Foreign Interference, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Israel, and Syria
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
A critical point has been reached where sanctions and military conflict connect. Tehran needs and seeks a limited military confrontation with the West in order to shore-up its legitimacy at home.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Sanctions, Conflict, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
At a recent conference on the Mideast economy in Doha, which included the participation of Israeli scholars, discussions highlighted changes in the regional balance of power. Acceptance of Assad’s rule in Syria is growing, but so are questions about how Syria’s rehabilitation will be financed. And some Iranians are signaling that Tehran is willing to make political compromises to alleviate economic pressures.
Topic:
Economics, Leadership, Political stability, Conflict, and Academia