Search

Begin New Search Topic Economics Political Geography Global Focus Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)

1. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:
Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:
Economics, Models, and Predictability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Why Diagnostic Expectations Cannot Replace REH

Author:
Roman Frydman and Halina Frydman
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Gennaioli and Shleifer (GS) have proposed diagnostic expectations (DE) as an empirically-based approach to specifying participants’ expectations, which, like REH, can be applied in every model. Beyond its supposedly general applicability, GS’s formalization of DE implies that participants systematically and predictably overreact to news. Here, we present a formal argument that Kahneman and Tversky’s compelling empirical findings, and those of other behavioral economists, do not provide a basis for a general approach to specifying participants’ “predictable errors.” We also show that the overreaction of participants’ expectations is not a regularity, but rather an artifact of GS’s particular specification of DE.
Topic:
Economics, Academia, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

3. After the Allocation: What Role for the Special Drawing Rights System?

Author:
Tobias Pforr, Fabian Pape, and Steffen Murau
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In August 2021, the IMF made a new SDR allocation to help ease pandemic-induced financial strains in the Global South. This paper assesses the potential of the SDR system to address debt- related problems in global finance. We analyze the SDR system as a web of interlocking balance sheets whose members can use SDR holdings—the system’s tradable assets—for conversion into usable currency as a perpetual low-interest loan or to make payments to each other. Using original IMF data, we study how the system has been practically used since 1990. Though widely perceived as a solution in search of a problem in the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the SDR system provides three mechanisms through which IMF members borrow and lend usable currency to each other, with different strings attached: first, transactions by agreement; second, the IMF’s core lending facilities for which the SDR system offers additional resources; and third, IMF-sponsored Trusts which seek to harness the SDR system for development purposes and are the basis for the current idea of ‘voluntary channeling’. Overall, given the SDR system’s idiosyncratic accounting rules, the new allocation can improve the liquidity position of a country and offer some limited avenues for sovereign debt restructuring but comes with new interest and exchange rate risks. Voluntary channeling cannot happen without a wealth transfer, neither the SDR allocation nor the use of Trusts can overcome this problem. Still, Trusts can be a useful instrument to help with debt forgiveness and to ensure that borrowed funds are used for their intended purpose.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, Finance, and IMF
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. An Economic Defense of Multiple Antitrust Goals: Reversing Income Inequality and Promoting Political Democracy

Author:
Mark Glick
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Two recent papers by prominent antitrust scholars argue that a revived antitrust movement can help reverse the dramatic rise in economic inequality and the erosion of political democracy in the United States. Both papers rely on the legislative history of the key antitrust statutes to support their case. Not surprisingly, their recommendations have been met with alarm in some quarters and with skepticism in others. Such proposals by antitrust reformers are often contrasted with the Consumer Welfare Standard that pervades antitrust policy today. The Consumer Welfare Standard suffers from several defects: (1) It employs a narrow, unworkable measure of welfare; (2) It excludes important sources of welfare based on the assumption that antitrust seeks only to maximize wealth; (3) It assumes a constant and equal individual marginal utility of money; and (4) It is often combined with extraneous ideological goals. Even with these defects, however, if applied consistent with its theoretical underpinnings, the consideration of the transfer of labor rents resulting from a merger or dominant firm conduct is supported by the Consumer Welfare Standard. Moreover, even when only consumers (and not producers) are deemed relevant, the welfare of labor still should consistently be considered part of consumer welfare. In contrast, fostering political democracy—a prominent traditional antitrust goal that was jettisoned by the Chicago School—falls outside the Consumer Welfare Standard in any of its constructs. To undergird such important broader goals requires that the Consumer Welfare Standard be replaced with the General Welfare Standard. The General Welfare Standard consists of modern welfare economics modified to accommodate objective analyses of human welfare and purged of inconsistencies.
Topic:
Economics, Democracy, Income Inequality, and Antitrust Law
Political Geography:
Global Focus

5. Government Deficits and Interest Rates: A Keynesian View

Author:
Brett Palatiello and Philip Pilkington
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We test the neoclassical loanable funds model which postulates that, ceteris paribus, government borrowing increases the long-term rate of interest. The empirical literature exploring such a connection remains largely mixed. We clarify the conflicting results by deploying an ARDL model to decompose the relationship in the United States into long and short-run effects across multiple measures of the government deficit and long-term interest rate. We find a tendency for changes in the deficit to increase long-term interest rates in the short run but the effect is reversed in the long run. We argue that these results are consistent with John Maynard Keynes’ view of the long-term rate as being heavily influenced by monetary policy, central bank credibility and market convention.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Economic Theory, Keynes, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Setting the Record Straight on the Libertarian South African Economist W. H. Hutt and James M. Buchanan

Author:
William Darity Jr., M'Balou Camara, and Nancy MacLean
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In their stormy response to Nancy MacLean’s book Democracy in Chains, some academics on the libertarian right have conducted a concerted defense of Nobel Laureate James Buchanan’s credentials as an anti-racist, or at least a non-racist. An odd component of their argument is a claim of innocence by association: the peripatetic South African economist and Mont Pelerin Society founding member William Harold Hutt was against apartheid; Buchanan was a friend and supporter of Hutt; therefore, Buchanan could not have been abetting segregationists with his support for public funding of segregationist private schools. At the core of this chain of argument is the inference that Hutt’s opposition to apartheid proves that Hutt himself was committed to racial equality. However, just as there were white supremacists who opposed slavery in the United States, we demonstrate Hutt was a white supremacist who opposed apartheid in South Africa. We document how Hutt embraced notions of black inferiority, even in The Economics of the Colour Bar, his most ferocious attack on apartheid. Whether or not innocence by association is a sound defense of anyone’s ideology or conduct, Hutt, himself, was not innocent of white supremacy.
Topic:
Economics, Discrimination, Racism, and Libertarianism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

7. Inflation in the Time of Corona and War

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Reliance on established macroeconomic thinking is not of much use in trying to understand what to do in response to the constellation of forces driving up inflation in these times of COVID-19 and war. This paper attempts to reduce the heat and turn up the light in the debate on the return of high inflation and looming stagflation—by providing evidence-based answers to the main (policy) questions concerning the return of high inflation: is the increased inflation due to (global) supply and/or demand factors? Is the inflation in the US exceptional or are other OECD and emerging economies experiencing similar inflationary pressures? Is the increase in inflation permanent or transitory? Can the Fed safely bring down inflation? Is fiscal policy the underlying cause of inflation? Are there alternative, less socially costly, ways to bring inflation down? And what will happen to inflation in the longer run, when the US and other economies will face the impacts of global warming?
Topic:
Economics, War, Inflation, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

8. Working Paper Permanent Scars: The Effects of Wages on Productivity

Author:
Claudia Fontanari and Antonella Palumbo
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper explores how stagnating real wages may have contributed to the slowdown of US productivity. Through shift-share analysis, we find that after a sharp change in distribution against wages, some historically high-productivity sectors (like manufacturing) switched towards slower productivity growth. This supports our hypothesis that the anemic growth of productivity may be partly due to the trend toward massive use of cheap labor. Our estimation of Sylos Labini’s productivity equation confirms the existence of two direct effects of wages, one acting through the incentive to mechanization and the other through the incentive to reorganize labor use. We also show that labor ‘weakness’ may exert a further negative effect on labor productivity. On the whole, we find that a persistent regime of low wages may determine very negative long-term consequences on the economy.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Economic Theory, and Wages
Political Geography:
Global Focus

9. Monetary Policy for the Climate? A Money View Perspective on Green Central Banking

Author:
Jakob Vestergaard
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Central banks can potentially influence the investment decisions of private financial institutions, which in turn will create incentives towards green technology adoption and development of lower emission business models. This paper examines how monetary policies can be deployed to promote a greening of finance. To guide the efforts, the paper mobilizes the Money View literature. This enables a comparative assessment of different monetary policy options. The main finding is that a promising way forward for green monetary policy is to adopt a strategy of expanding collateral eligibility through positive screening and widening haircut spreads to change relative incentives in favor of green over brown assets.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Monetary Policy, Banking, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Inflation in the Time of Corona and War: The Plight of the Developing Economies

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Reliance on established macroeconomic thinking is not of much use in trying to understand what to do in response to the constellation of forces driving up inflation and slowing down growth in these times of COVID-19 and war. This paper attempts to reduce the heat and turn up the light in the debate on the return of high inflation and looming stagflation—by providing evidence-based answers to key (policy) questions concerning the return of high inflation: How close are the parallels between the current conjuncture and the 1970s? What are the differences? Does what is currently happening already amount to stagflation? Can central bankers engineer a ‘soft landing’ of their economies or are we already poised for a deep (global) recession? What are the likely spill- over effects of monetary tightening in the US on the emerging economies? What, if anything, can we learn from the monetary and fiscal policy experiences and policy mistakes of the 1970s? And, finally, are there alternative, less socially costly, ways to bring inflation down?
Topic:
Economics, War, Conflict, Inflation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

11. Zombies at Large? Corporate Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomy

Author:
Oscar Jorda, Martin Kornejew, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
What are the macroeconomic consequences of business credit booms? Are they as dangerous as household credit booms? If not, why not? We answer these questions by collecting data on non- financial business liabilities (primarily bank loans and corporate bonds) for 17 advanced economies over the past 150 years. Unlike household credit, business credit booms are rarely followed by macroeconomic hangovers. Data on debt renegotiation costs—instrumented by a country’s legal tradition—show that frictions to debt resolution make recessions deeper and longer—an important factor in explaining the differences with household credit booms.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Macroeconomics, and Corporations
Political Geography:
Global Focus

12. Can Panel Data Methodologies Determine the Impact of Climate Change on Economic Growth?

Author:
Richard A. Rosen
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Several major papers have been published over the last ten years claiming to have detected the impact of either annual variations in weather or climate change on the GDPs of most countries in the world using panel data-based statistical methodologies. These papers rely on various multivariate regression equations which include the annual average temperatures for most countries in the world as one or more of the independent variables, where the usual dependent variable is the change in annual GDP for each country from one year to the next year over 30-50 year time periods. Unfortunately, the quantitative estimates derived in these papers are misleading because the equations from which they are calculated are wrong. The major reason the resulting regression equations are wrong is because they do not include any of the appropriate and usual economic factors or variables which are likely to be able to explain changes in GDP/economic growth whether or not climate change has already impacted each country’s economy. These equations, in short, exhibit suffer from “omitted variable bias,” to use statistical terminology.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Economic Growth, and Methodology
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Asset Prices Under Knightian Uncertainty

Author:
Roman Frydman, Søren Johansen, Anders Rahbek, and Morten Tabor
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We extend Lucas’s classic asset-price model by opening the stochastic process driving dividends to Knightian uncertainty arising from unforeseeable change. Implementing Muth’s hypothesis, we represent participants’ expectations as being consistent with our model’s predictions and formalize their ambiguity- averse decisions with maximization of intertemporal multiple-priors utility. We characterize the asset-price function with a stochastic Euler equation and derive a novel prediction that the relationship between prices and dividends undergoes unforeseeable change. Our approach accords participants’ expectations, driven by both fundamental and psychological factors, an autonomous role in driving the asset price over time, without presuming that participants are irrational.
Topic:
Economics, Models, and Price
Political Geography:
Global Focus

14. Cordon of Conformity: Why DSGE models Are Not the Future of Macroeconomics

Author:
Servaas Storm
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project, led by David Vines and Samuel Wills (2020), is an important, albeit long overdue, initiative to rethink a failing mainstream macroeconomics. Professors Vines and Wills, who must be congratulated for stepping up to the challenge of trying to make mainstream macroeconomics relevant again, call for a new multiple-equilibrium and diverse (MEADE) paradigm for macroeconomics. Their idea is to start with simple models, ideally two-dimensional sketches, that explain mechanisms that can cause multiple equilibria. These mechanisms should then be incorporated into larger DSGE models in a new, multiple-equilibrium synthesis – to see how the fundamental pieces of the economy fit together, subject to it being ‘properly micro-founded’. This paper argues that the MEADE paradigm is bound to fail, because it maintains the DSGE model as the unifying framework at the center of macroeconomic analysis. The paper reviews 10 fundamental weaknesses inherent in DSGE models which make these models irreparably useless for macroeconomic policy analysis. Mainstream macroeconomics must put DSGE models, once and for all, in the Museum of Implausible Economic Models – and learn important lessons from non-DSGE macroeconomic approaches.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Money, Demand, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

15. Country Risk

Author:
Tarek A. Hassan, Jesse Schreger, Markus Schwedeler, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We construct new measures of country risk and sentiment as perceived by global investors and executives using textual analysis of the quarterly earnings calls of publicly listed firms around the world. Our quarterly measures cover 45 countries from 2002-2020. We use our measures to provide a novel characterization of country risk and to provide a harmonized definition of crises. We demonstrate that elevated perceptions of a country's riskiness are associated with significant falls in local asset prices and capital outflows, even after global financial conditions are controlled for. Increases in country risk are associated with reductions in firm-level investment and employment. We also show direct evidence of a novel type of contagion, where foreign risk is transmitted across borders through firm-level exposures. Exposed firms suffer falling market valuations and significantly retrench their hiring and investment in response to crises abroad. Finally, we provide direct evidence that heterogeneous currency loadings on global risk help explain the cross-country pattern of interest rates and currency risk premia.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Investment, Risk, and Contagion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16. The Updated Okun Method for Estimation of Potential Output with Broad Measures of Labor Underutilization: An Empirical Analysis

Author:
Claudia Fontanari, Antonella Palumbo, and Chiara Salvatori
Publication Date:
05-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper extends to different indicators of labor underutilization the Updated Okun Method (UOM) for estimation of potential output proposed in Fontanari et al (2020), which, from a demand-led growth perspective, regards potential output as an empirical approximation to fullemployment output, as in A.M.Okun’s (1962) original method. Based on the apparent incapability of the official rate of unemployment to fully account for labor underutilization, in this paper we offer estimates of Okun’s law both with broad unemployment indicators and with an indicator of ‘standardized hours worked’ which we propose as a novel measure of the labor input. The paper reflects on the possible different empirical measures of full employment. The various measures of potential output that we extract from our analysis show greater output gaps than those produced by standard methods, thus highlighting a systematic tendency of the latter to underestimate potential output. Output gaps that underestimate the size of the output loss or that tend to close too soon during recovery, may produce a bias towards untimely restriction.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Demand, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Global Focus

17. Bagehot for Central Bankers

Author:
Laurent Le Maux
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Walter Bagehot (1873) published his famous book, Lombard Street, almost 150 years ago. The adage “lending freely against good collateral at a penalty rate” is associated with his name and his book has always been set on a pedestal and is still considered as the leading reference on the role of lender of last resort. Nonetheless, without a clear understanding of the theoretical grounds and the institutional features of the British banking system, any interpretation of Bagehot’s writings remains vague if not misleading—which is worrisome if they are supposed to provide a guideline for policy makers. The purpose of the present paper is to determine whether Bagehot’s recommendation remains relevant for modern central bankers or whether it was indigenous to the monetary and banking architecture of Victorian times.
Topic:
Economics, History, Central Bank, and Lending
Political Geography:
Global Focus

18. Why do Sovereign Borrowers Post Collateral? Evidence from the 19th Century

Author:
Marc Flandreau, Stefano Pietrosanti, and Carlotta E. Schuster
Publication Date:
10-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper explores the reasons why sovereign borrowers post collateral. Such behavior is paradoxical because conventional interpretations of collateral stress repossession of the assets pledged as the key to securing lenders against information asymmetries and moral hazard. However, repossession is generally difficult in the case of sovereign debt and in some cases impossible. Nevertheless, such sovereign “hypothecations” have a long history and are again becoming very popular today in developing countries. To explain sovereign collateralization, we emphasize an informational channel. Posting collateral produces information on opaque borrowers by displaying borrowers’ behavior and resources. We support this interpretation by examining the hypothecation “mania” of 1849-1875, when sovereigns borrowing in the London Stock Exchange pledged all kinds of intangible revenues. Yet, at that time, sovereign immunity fully protected both sovereigns and their assets and possessions. Still, we show that hypothecations significantly decreased the cost of sovereign debt. To explain how, we stress the pledges’ role in documenting sovereigns’ wealth and the management of revenue streams. Based on an exhaustive library of bond prospectuses collected from primary sources, matched with a panel of sovereign bond yields and an innovative measure of sovereign fiscal transparency, we show that collateral minutely described in debt covenants served to document and monitor sovereign resources and development prospects. Encasing this information in contracts written by lawyers served to certify the quality of the resulting data disclosure process, explaining investors’ readiness to pay a premium.
Topic:
Economics, Finance, History, Innovation, Contracts, Sovereign Debt, and Collateral
Political Geography:
Global Focus

19. Inflation? It’s Import Prices and the Labor Share!

Author:
Lance Taylor and Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Recognizing that inflation of the value of output and its costs of production must be equal, we focus on a cost-based macroeconomic structuralist approach in contrast to micro-oriented monetarist analysis. For decades the import and profit shares of cost have risen, while the wage share has declined to around 50% with money wage increases lagging the sum of growth rates of prices and productivity. Conflicting claims to income are the underlying source of inflationary pressure. Inflation affects income (labor’s spending power) and wealth. Monetarist theory around 1900 concentrated on the latter (Bryan and the “Cross of Gold)” leading to the standard Laffer curve. It was replaced by the Friedman-Phelps model which has incorrect dynamics (labor payments do not fall during an expansion – they go up). Samuelson and Solow introduced a version of the Phillips curve that violates macroeconomic accounting. Rational expectations replaced Friedman but was immediately falsified by output drops after the Volcker shock treatment around 1980. There followed a complicated transition from rational expectations to inflation targeting, anchored by economists’ misunderstanding of the physical meaning of ergodicity and ontological blindness. It did not help that the real balance effect is irrelevant because money makes up a small part of wealth. Rather than issuing veiled threats of disaster if its policy advice is not followed, the Fed now announces inflation targets which it cannot meet. Contemporary structuralist theory suggests that conflicting income claims set the inflation rate. Firms can mark up costs but workers have latent bargaining power over the labor share that they can exercise. Import costs and policy repercussions complicate the picture, but a simple vector error correction model and visual analysis suggest that money wages would have to grow one percentage point faster than prices plus productivity for several years if the Fed is to meet a three percent inflation target. The results pose a Biden policy trilemma: (i) the only path toward a more egalitarian size distribution of income is through a rising labor share (money wage growth exceeds price plus productivity growth), (ii) which would provoke faster inflation with feedback to rising interest rates, and (iii) the resulting asset price deflation likely facing political resistance from Wall Street and affluent households.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Inflation, Imports, and Structuralism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

20. The Erroneous Foundations of Law and Economics

Author:
Mark Glick and Gabriel A. Lozada
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The fundamental originating principle of law and economics (L&E) is that legal decisions should be (and are) based on maximizing efficiency. But L&E proponents do not define “efficiency” in the way agreed to by most economists, as Pareto Efficiency. A Pareto optimal condition is obtained when no one can be made better off without making someone worse off. Pareto Improvements are win-win changes where no losers exist. In the judicial system, however, there are always winners and losers, because under Article III § 2 of the Constitution a legal case does not exist unless there is a justiciable “case or controversy” in need of resolution. Unable to use Pareto Efficiency, L&E scholars have been forced to adopt alternative definitions of efficiency. Most L&E scholars claim to define “efficiency” based on the work of Kaldor and Hicks, but (perhaps unwittingly) instead use a definition of “efficiency” derived from the 19th century idea of consumer surplus, which encompasses L&E notions such as “wealth maximization,” and “consumer welfare” in antitrust. Neither of these alternative definitions is viable, however. Outside of L&E, the Kaldor-Hicks approach has long been recognized to be riddled with logical inconsistencies and ethical failures, and the surplus approach is even more deficient. Remarkably, virtually none of the numerous L&E textbooks even hint at such problems. Critically, all definitions of efficiency improvements in economics are biased in favor of wealthy individuals or firms, either because they are dependent on the status quo ante distribution of assets, or because they bestow large advantages on parties with political influence or who can afford to bring lawsuits quickly. Many L&E practitioners treat efficiency improvements instead as being objectively good, an error revealing that L&E is primarily motivated by its neoliberal policy agenda.
Topic:
Economics, Law, Neoliberalism, and Efficiency
Political Geography:
Global Focus

21. Inclusive American Economic History: Containing Slaves, Freedmen, Jim Crow Laws, and the Great Migration

Author:
Trevon Logan and Peter Temin
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper records the path by which African Americans were transformed from enslaved persons in the American economy to partial participants in the progress of the economy. The path was not monotonic, and we organize our tale by periods in which inclusiveness rose and fell. The history we recount demonstrates the staying power of the myth of black inferiority held by a changing white majority as the economy expanded dramatically. Slavery was outlawed after the Civil War, and blacks began to participate in American politics en masse for the first time during Reconstruction. This process met with white resistance, and black inclusion in the growing economy fell as the Gilded Age followed and white political will for black political participation faded. The Second World War also was followed by prosperity in which blacks were included more fully into the white economy, but still not completely. The Civil Rights Movement proved no more durable than Reconstruction, and blacks lost ground as the 20th century ended in the growth of a New Gilded Age. Resources that could be used to improve the welfare of whites and blacks continue to be spent on the continued repressions of blacks.
Topic:
Economics, Race, History, Capitalism, and Slavery
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

22. Modeling Myths: On the Need for Dynamic Realism in DICE and other Equilibrium Models of Global Climate Mitigation

Author:
Claudia Wieners and Michael Grubb
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We analyze and critique how optimizing Integrated Assessment Models, and specifically the widely-used DICE model, represent abatement costs. Many such models assume temporal independence –abatement costs in one period are not affected by prior abatement. We contrast this with three dimensions of dynamic realism in emitting systems: inertia, induced innovation, and path dependence. We extend the DICE model with a stylized representation of such dynamic factors. By adding a transitional cost component, we characterize the resulting system in terms of its capacity to adapt in path-dependent ways, and the transitional costs of accelerating abatement. We formalize a resulting metric of the pliability of the system, and the characteristic timescales of adjustment. With the resulting DICE-PACE model, we show that in a system with high pliability, the optimal strategy involves much higher initial investment in abatement, sustained at roughly constant levels for some decades, which generates an approximately linear abatement path and emissions declining steadily to zero. This contrasts sharply with the traditional formulation. Characteristic transition timescales of 20-40 years result in an optimum path which stabilizes global temperatures around a degree below the traditional DICE behavior; with otherwise modest assumptions, a pliable system can generate optimal scenarios within the goals of the Paris Agreement, with far lower long run combined costs of abatement and climate damages. We conclude that representing dynamic realism in such models is as important as – and far more empirically tractable than – continued debate about the monetization of climate damages and ‘social cost of carbon’.
Topic:
Climate Change, Economics, Paris Agreement, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. Who’s Responsible Here? Establishing Legal Responsibility in the Fissured Workplace

Author:
Tanya Goldman and David Weil
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The nature of work is changing, with workers enduring increasingly precarious working conditions without any safety net. In response, this Article proposes a new “Concentric Circle framework” which would improve workers’ access to civil, labor, and employment rights. Many businesses, including app-based platforms, have restructured toward “fissured workplace” business models. They treat workers like employees (specifying behaviors and closely monitoring outcomes) but they classify workers as independent contractors (engaging them at an arms-length and cutting them off from rights and benefits tied to employment). These arrangements confound legal classifications of “employment” and expose deficiencies with existing workplace protections, which are based on “employment relationships.” As a result, a growing number of workers lack both bargaining power and critical workpalce rights and benefits. We propose a Concentric Circle framework to better govern workers’ rights in the modern era. At the core, we maintain that certain rights and protections should not be tethered to an employment relationship, but to work itself. Thus, the right to be compensated for work and paid a minimum wage; freedom from discrimination and retaliation; access to a safe working environment, and the right to associate and engage in concerted activity should belong to all workers, not just employees. Second, as a middle circle, we argue for a rebuttable presumption of employment to address those rights that remain exclusive to employees (and not independent contractors), and we propose an updated legal test of employment. Finally, at the outer ring of the framework, we suggest policies that could enhance workers’ access to benefits that promote worker mobility and social welfare. Other scholarship has focused exclusively on either independent contractors or employees, or it has proposed a new category of worker altogether. We contend that this comprehensive framework better assigns rights, responsibilities, and protections in the modern workplace than do current legal doctrines or alternative proposals.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Law, Legal Theory, Civil Rights, Legal Sector, and Workforce
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. Firm-Level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1

Author:
Tarek A. Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent, and Ahmed Tahoun
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Using tools described in our earlier work (Hassan et al., 2019, 2020), we develop text- based measures of the costs, benefits, and risks listed firms in the US and over 80 other countries associate with the spread of Covid-19 and other epidemic diseases. We identify which firms expect to gain or lose from an epidemic disease and which are most affected by the associated uncertainty as a disease spreads in a region or around the world. As Covid-19 spreads globally in the first quarter of 2020, we find that firms’ primary concerns relate to the collapse of demand, increased uncertainty, and disruption in supply chains. Other important concerns relate to capacity reductions, closures, and employee welfare. By contrast, financing concerns are mentioned relatively rarely. We also identify some firms that foresee opportunities in new or disrupted markets due to the spread of the disease. Finally, we find some evidence that firms that have experience with SARS or H1N1 have more positive expectations about their ability to deal with the coronavirus outbreak.
Topic:
Economics, Infectious Diseases, Global Markets, Finance, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. The Political Economy of Europe since 1945: A Kaleckian perspective

Author:
Joseph Halevi
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the early stages of the formation of the Common Market. The period covered runs from the end of WW2 to 1959, which is the year in which the European Payments Union ceased to operate. The essay begins by highlighting the differences between the prewar political economy of Europe and the new dimensions and institutions brought in by the United States after 1945. It focuses on the marginalization of Britain and on the relaunching of French great power ambitions and how the latter determined, in a very problematical way, the European complexion of France. Because of France’s imperial aspirations, France, not West Germany, emerged as the politically crisis prone country of Europe acting as a factor of instability thereby jeopardizing the process of European integration, Among the large European nations, Germany and Italy appear, for opposite economic reasons, as the countries most focused on furthering integration. Germany expressed the strongest form of neomercantilism while Italy the weakest.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Global Political Economy, World War II, and Common Market
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Germany, and Global Focus

26. From the EMS to the EMU and...to China

Author:
Joseph Halevi
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The paper highlights the position of German authorities, showing that they were quite lucid about the fundamental weaknesses inherent in a process that separated monetary from fiscal policies by giving priority to the centralization of the former. Instead of repeating the well known critiques levelled against the EMU – for which readers are referred to the unsurpassed treatment by Stiglitz, the essay highlights the splintering of Europe in the way in which it has unfolded during the 1990s and in the first decade of the present millennium. In particular the early economic and political origins of the terminal crisis of Italy are located between the late 1980s and the 1990s. France is shown to belong increasingly to the so-called European periphery by virtue of a weakening industrial structure and persistent balance of payments deficits. The paper argues that France regains its central role by political means and through its weight as an active nuclear military power centered on maintaining its imperial interests and posture especially in Africa. The first decade of the present millennium is portrayed as the period in which a distinct German economic area had been formed in the midst of Europe with a strong drive to the east with an increasingly powerful gravitational pull towards the People’s Republic of China.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Political Economy, History, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, China, Europe, Asia, Germany, and Global Focus

27. Macroeconomic Management Meets the New Economy

Author:
Commission on Global Economic Transformation
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Finance and the macroeconomy, both policy and industry practices as well as academic research, have evolved substantially in recent years. While the old questions of business cycles, macroeconomic management, financial regulation, and social protection are still being debated, we are now confronted with new developments in the economy, characterized by digital technology, new modes of production and business models, and changing employment relations. Macroeconomics and finance need urgent rethinking as the global economy transforms. Our gathering on March 5, 2019 brought together economists, policymakers, financial regulators, and industry practitioners from around the world. We heard diverse perspectives on multilateralism, pension and labor market reform, international trade, and risks in the world economy, and we grappled with issues on stagnant wages, public debt, fiscal and monetary policy, and banking reforms. Our discussion was by no means exhaustive or conclusive, but we attempted to harness the group’s collective wisdom to address some of the most prominent questions of our day. This document is intended to inform our commissioners as they develop CGET’s final report and to share our timely conversation with policymakers and the general public. Fomenting multidisciplinary, critical discourse is one of the most important responsibilities of this initiative, and we sincerely thank the staff at the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), our dedicated Commissioners, and our outside experts for helping us to promote this dialogue.
Topic:
Economics, Industrial Policy, Regulation, Digital Economy, Economic Theory, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

28. Demand-determined potential output: a revision and update of Okun’s original method

Author:
Claudia Fontanari, Antonella Palumbo, and Chiara Salvatori
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper challenges the mainstream view of potential output, and enquires into the supposed effects of Great Recession on potential growth. We identify in the demand-led growth perspective a more promising theoretical framework both to define the notion and to gauge the long-term effects of a demand slow down. Based on the poor reliability of standard estimates of potential output, we also propose an alternative calculation. This is based on an update of Arthur M. Okun’s original method for estimating potential output, which, differently from the estimation methods currently in use, does not rely on the notion of NAIRU, thus being immune to its theoretical and empirical shortcomings. Our calculation, based on a re-estimation of Okun’s Law on US quarterly data, shows both how far an economy generally operates from its production possibilities, and how much potential growth is affected by the actual growth of demand over time. These wide margins for expansion of actual and potential output growth imply that a determined policy of demand expansion would create, given time, the very capacity that justifies it.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, and Demand
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

29. Technological Disruption in the Global Economy

Author:
Commission on Global Economic Transformation
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Technology has become the most powerful disruptive force in our economy. It bears on the future of work, competition, market power, and national security, and it binds the other major areas of our commission’s investigation: macroeconomics and finance, globalization, and climate change. In essence, technological progress propels global economic transformation. Our gathering on February 6, 2019 brought economists together with leading voices from academia, labor, private industry, and the nonprofit/NGO sector. We heard from industry leaders with deep roots and history in the Silicon Valley technology revolution, academics who have also spent time in the policy arena, and from individuals who are already considering new models and approaches to digital rights and the future of work. Our discussion was by no means exhaustive or conclusive, but we attempted to harness the group’s collective wisdom to address some of the most vexing questions of our day. This document is intended to inform our commissioners as they develop CGET’s final report and to share our timely conversation with policymakers and the general public. Fomenting multidisciplinary, critical discourse is one of the most important responsibilities of this initiative, and we sincerely thank the staff at the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), our dedicated commissioners, and our outside thought leaders for helping us to promote this dialogue.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Global Markets, Digital Economy, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

30. Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment

Author:
Enrico Sergio Levrero
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
After briefly mentioning the determinants of the natural rate of interest in the New Keynesian models, the paper discusses the different notions of it that we find in these models and the problems encountered when the natural rate is estimated. It states that these problems are not only related to the difficulties in distinguishing the kind and persistency of economic shocks, but pertain to theory, namely to model specification and the alleged independence of the average or normal interest rate from monetary policy. Following Keynes’s suggestion regarding the monetary nature of interest rates, some final remarks will thus be advanced on their effects on prices and income distribution as well as on the objectives and stance of monetary policies.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Income Inequality, Macroeconomics, and Keynes
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

31. Labor Institutions and Development Under Globalization

Author:
Servaas Storm and Jeronim Capaldo
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Labor market regulation is a controversial area of public policy in both developed and developing countries. After decades of de-regulatory advice, international financial institutions have recently come to a less extreme position. But any concessions to labor regulation are based on concerns for social stability or for short-term support to aggregate demand, while regulation continues to be viewed as harmful to economic efficiency. In this paper we take a deeper look at the impact of labor institutions on economic development in two ways. First, we propose a macroeconomic model with balance-of-payments constraint for a “small” developing country open to trade and foreign capital. This helps us clarify the importance of a dynamic view of economic efficiency, as opposed to the static view embedded in mainstream policy advice. Secondly, we discuss the political economy of labor regulation. We argue that labor institutions promote economic development though positive effects on aggregate demand, labor productivity and technology.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Regulation, Labor Market, and Labor Cost
Political Geography:
Global Focus

32. Industrial Structure and Party Competition in an Age of Hunger Games: Donald Trump and the 2016 Presidential Election

Author:
Thomas Ferguson, Paul Jorgensen, and Jie Chen
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The U.S. presidential election of 2016 featured frontal challenges to the political establishments of both parties and perhaps the most shocking election upset in American history. This paper analyzes patterns of industrial structure and party competition in both the major party primaries and the general election. It attempts to identify the genuinely new, historically specific factors that led to the upheavals, especially the steady growth of a “dual economy” that locks more and more Americans out of the middle class and into a life of unsteady, low wage employment and, all too often, steep debts. The paper draws extensively on a newly assembled, more comprehensive database of political contributions to identify the specific political forces that coalesced around each candidate. It considers in detail how different investor blocs related to the Republican Party and the Trump campaign as the campaign progressed and the role small contributors played in the various campaigns, especially that of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. It also critically evaluates claims about the final weeks of the election in the light of important overlooked evidence.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Elections, Finance, Donald Trump, Political Parties, and Banking
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

33. Inequality in the 21st century: A critical analysis of Piketty’s work

Author:
Nadia Garbellini
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Thomas Piketty’s (2014) Capital in the XXI Century aims to analyze distributions of income and wealth and their determinants, in a set of developed countries from the nineteenth century to the present. The objective is a bold one, made even more so by the fact that Piketty pursues it not only from a theoretical, but also, from an empirical point of view. The task is particularly impressive not only because of the enormous effort required in collecting and organising data, but also because the work entails attaching a deterministic interpretation to facts and figures from radically different countries over a time span that covers almost two centuries, thereby forcing comparison between numbers coming from clearly incommensurable contexts. These difficulties are not lost to Piketty, who states that “[w]ithout precisely defined sources, methods, and concepts, it is possible to see everything and its opposite.” (Piketty, 2014, pp.2-3) This study argues that the empirical ‘methods and concepts’ adopted by Piketty are not always consistent with those coming from his reference theoretical framework, nor from National Accounts (United Nations, 2009).
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Income Inequality, Economic Growth, and Capital
Political Geography:
Global Focus

34. Persistent Effects of Autonomous Demand Expansions

Author:
Daniele Girardi, Walter Paternesi Meloni, and Antonella Stirati
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The prevailing wisdom that aggregate demand shocks determine short-run cyclical fluctuations around a supply-determined equilibrium growth rate and an associated equilibrium unemployment rate (or NAIRU) has been called into question by various strands of literature over the last few decades. Specifically, a recently revived literature on hysteresis finds significant persistence in the effects of negative aggregate demand shocks (e.g. Blanchard et al. 2015; Fatás and Summers 2016; Martin et al. 2015). This paper aims to assess this tendency to return to a supply-determined potential output, independent of aggregate demand, after episodes of demand expansion. In line with the hysteresis literature, we assess the persistence of aggregate demand effects on key macroeconomic outcomes. However, in contrast with much of that literature, we assess whether persistence is detected also in instances of demand expansion. We study 94 episodes of demand expansion in 34 OECD countries between 1960 and 2015. We look at the sum of primary public expenditure and exports, a variable we call 'autonomous demand'. We define an expansion as a large yearly percentage increase in autonomous demand, ‘large’ meaning greater than a standard deviation above the country mean. We analyze the impact of these expansions on key macroeconomic outcomes in the subsequent decade, using various techniques to deal with endogeneity. We employ two main approaches: a dynamic two-way fixed-effects model, analogous to a standard difference-in-differences estimation; and a propensity score-based specification which explicitly models selection bias. We find a highly significant persistent effect on the GDP level: a one-off expansion in our autonomous demand variable by (an average of) 5% is associated 10 years later with a GDP level around 3% higher than in the control group, with no sign of mean reversion. We also document strong persistent effects on capital stock, employment and participation rates. Effects on productivity and the unemployment rate are also strong and quite persistent, but evidence regarding their permanence is more mixed. We do not find that expansions, on average, cause high or accelerating inflation. Our results lead us to ask whether hysteresis should be considered a distortion in the working of market economies that holds only in specific circumstances – as the mainstream literature has generally suggested – or whether it is, in fact, a pervasive phenomenon which holds most of the time.
Topic:
Economics, Inflation, Unemployment, and Capital Formation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. The Focus of Academic Economics: Before and After the Crisis

Author:
Ernest Aigner, Matthias Aistleitner, Florentin Glötzl, and Jakob Kapeller
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Has the global financial crisis of 2007ff had a visible impact on the economics profession? To answer this question we employ a bibliometric approach and compare the content and orientation of economic literature before and after the crisis with reference to two different samples: A large-scale sample consisting of more than 440,000 articles published between 1956 and 2016 and a smaller sample of 400 top-cited papers before and after the crisis. Our results suggest that – unlike the Great Depression of the 1930s – the current financial crisis did not lead to any major theoretical or methodological changes in contemporary economics, although the topic of financial instability received increased attention after the crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Academia, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

36. Citation Patterns in Economics and Beyond

Author:
Matthias Aistleitner, Jakob Kapeller, and Stefan Steinerberger
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
In this paper we comparatively explore three claims concerning the disciplinary character of economics by means of citation analysis. The three claims under study are: (1) economics exhibits strong forms of institutional stratification and, as a byproduct, a rather pronounced internal hierarchy, (2) economists strongly conform to institutional incentives and (3) modern mainstream economics is a largely selfreferential intellectual project mostly inaccessible to disciplinary or paradigmatic outsiders. The validity of these claims is assessed by means of an interdisciplinary comparison of citation patterns aiming to identify peculiar characteristics of economic discourse. In doing so, we emphasize that citation data can always be interpreted in different ways, thereby focusing on the contrast between a ‘cognitive’ and an ‘evaluative’ approach towards citation data.
Topic:
Economics, Sociology, Academia, Citation, and Hierarchy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37. Corporate Scandals and Regulation

Author:
Luzi Hail, Ahmed Tahoun, and Clare Wang
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Are regulatory interventions delayed reactions to market failures or can regulators proactively pre-empt corporate misbehavior? From a public interest view, we would expect “effective” regulation to ex ante mitigate agency conflicts between corporate insiders and outsiders, and prevent corporate misbehavior from occurring or quickly rectify transgressions. However, regulators are also self-interested and may be captured, uninformed, or ideological, and become less effective as a result. In this registered report, we develop a historical time series of corporate (accounting) scandals and (accounting) regulations for a panel of 26 countries from 1800 to 2015. An analysis of the lead-lag relations at both the global and individual country level yields the following insights: (i) Corporate scandals are an antecedent to regulation over long stretches of time, suggesting that regulators are typically less flexible and informed than firms. (ii) Regulation is positively related to the incidence of future scandals, suggesting that regulators are not fully effective, that explicit rules are required to identify scandalous corporate actions, or that new regulations have unintended consequences. (iii) There exist systematic differences in these lead-lag relations across countries and over time suggesting that the effectiveness of regulation is shaped by fundamental country characteristics like market development and legal tradition.
Topic:
Economics, Law, Regulation, Finance, Capital, and Fraud
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. The Functions of the Stock Market and the Fallacies of Shareholder Value

Author:
William Lazonick
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Conventional wisdom has it that the primary function of the stock market is to raise cash for companies for the purpose of investing in productive capabilities. The conventional wisdom is wrong. Academic research on sources of corporate finance shows that, compared with other sources of funds, stock markets in advanced countries have been insignificant suppliers of capital for corporations. The purpose of this essay is to build a rigorous and relevant conception of the evolving role of the stock market in the U.S. corporate economy. In fact, the functions of the stock market go well beyond “cash” to include four other functions, which can be summarized as “control,” “creation,” “combination,” and “compensation.” In this paper, I argue, based on historical evidence, that in the growth of the U.S. economy the key function of the stock market was control. Specifically, the stock market enabled the separation of managerial control over the allocation of corporate resources from the ownership of the company’s shares. Yet, assuming that the key function of the stock market is cash, economists known as agency theorists see this separation of control from ownership as the “original sin” of American capitalism, and argue that the evils of managerial control can be overcome by compelling corporate managers as “agents” to maximize the value of corporate shareholders as “principals.” What is missing from the agency-theory argument is a theory of the value-creating firm, or what I call a “theory of innovative enterprise.” The value-creation process requires three social conditions of innovative enterprise: strategic control, organizational integration, and financial commitment. The functions of the stock market may support the types of strategic control, organizational integration, and financial commitment that can result in the generation of high-quality products at low unit costs—the economic definition of innovative enterprise. It is possible, however, that the functions of the stock market may undermine the types of strategic control, organizational integration, and financial commitment that the innovation process requires. In this paper, I provide a brief overview of the role of the control function of the stock market in supporting innovative enterprise in the historical rise to dominance of U.S. managerial capitalism from the early decades of the twentieth century. Then I elaborate the five functions of the stock market—control, cash, creation, combination, and compensation—in terms of the ways in which, from the perspective of the theory of innovative enterprise, each function can support value creation or, alternatively, empower value extraction. I then turn to a discussion of the evolving roles of the five functions of the stock market in major U.S. business corporations over the past century. The concluding section draws on the history of the actual functions of U.S. stock markets to critique the dominant ideology that, for the sake of superior economic performance, a company should be run to “maximize shareholder value” (MSV). I indicate how MSV undermines the social conditions of innovative enterprise: strategic control, organizational integration, and financial commitment.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Stock Markets, and Shareholder Democracy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39. A Method for Agent-Based Models Validation

Author:
Mattia Guerini and Alessio Moneta
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper proposes a new method to empirically validate simulation models that generate artificial time series data comparable with real-world data. The approach is based on comparing structures of vector autoregression models that are estimated from both artificial and real-world data by means of causal search algorithms. This relatively simple procedure is able to tackle both the problem of confronting theoretical simulation models with the data and the problem of comparing different models in terms of their empirical reliability. The paper also provides an application of the validation procedure to the Dosi et al. (2015) macro-model.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Theory, Data, and Models
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40. Full Employment, Open Economy Macroeconomics, and Keynes’ General Theory: Does the Swan Diagram Suffice?

Author:
Paul Davidson
Publication Date:
02-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper provides critical comments on the Peter Temin - David Vines promotion of the basic Swan Diagram as (1) a policy tool to encourage any individual debtor nation experiencing balance of payment deficits to reduce its exchange rate in order to expand exports and reduce imports and (2) the Swan Diagram as a simple model for understanding Keynes’s General Theory for an Open Economy. This paper explains that the Swan Diagram is completely incompatible with Keynes’s analysis. Instead Keynes advocated that the onus should be placed on creditor nations to correct international payments imbalances and thereby promote economic expansion internationally. Keynes warned against any deficit nation adopting a policy that tries to achieve a balance in its international payments by following any policy designed to reduce imports and increase exports. Such a policy sends a contractionary force onto the international economy and tends to injure all trading partners.
Topic:
Economics, Employment, Economic Theory, Macroeconomics, Unemployment, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

41. Household Borrowing and the Possibility of “Consumption- Driven, Profit-Led Growth”

Author:
Mark Setterfield and Yun K. Kim
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We first show that, with a Kaleckian structure that is consistent with Pasinetti (1962), the relationship between distribution and growth is more robust than conventional wisdom suggests. Next, we extend our model by incorporating borrowing and emulation effects into workers’ consumption behavior, under different assumptions about how debt is serviced. Our results demonstrate that borrowing and emulation transform the relationship between distribution and growth, giving rise to the possibility of a “consumption-driven, profit-led” growth regime (Kapeller and Schütz, 2015) and what we call the “paradox of inequality.” A key conclusion is that the wage-or -profit led characteristics of the growth process, rather than being invariant, can be altered by social constructs such as borrowing and consumption norms that change over time.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Profit, Homeownership, and Consumerism
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Understanding the Great Recession

Author:
Mario Seccareccia and Marc Lavoie
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Some Fundamental Keynesian and Post-Keynesian Insights, with an Analysis of Possible Mechanisms to Achieve a Sustained Recovery Fears of deflation and long-term stagnation have become more commonplace since the Great Recession. Yet, within the mainstream, economists are divided into two camps: those who see the benefits of downward wage and price adjustment, as a private sector stabilizer, and those who fear deflationary pressures because of their destabilizing consequences. This paper reviews this theoretical literature using a simple “New Consensus” framework of analysis and it also seeks to describe how mainstream and heterodox economists analyzing the consequences of deflationary pressures come to very different conclusions on the nature of private sector stabilizers in a recessionary environment. After reviewing the different perspectives, the paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the experience of both the Great Depression and the Great Recession by looking at the behavior of certain key variables in three countries: Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. The paper concludes that, if it was not for the quick actions of governments in stabilizing the economy through activist macroeconomic policies during the Great Recession, private sector stabilizers were actually less significant during the recent crisis than they were during the 1930s.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Economic Theory, Sustainability, and Economic Recovery
Political Geography:
Global Focus

43. Debt Servicing, Aggregate Consumption, and Growth

Author:
Mark Setterfield and Yun K. Kim
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
We develop a neo-Kaleckian growth model that emphasizes the importance of consumption behavior. In our model, workers first make consumption decisions based on their gross income, and then treat debt servicing commitments as a substitute for saving. Workers’ borrowing is induced by their desire to keep up with the consumption standard set by rentiers’ consumption, reflecting an aspect of the relative income hypothesis. As a result of this consumption and debt servicing behavior, consumer debt accumulation and income distribution have effects on aggregate demand, profitability, and economic growth that differ from those found in existing models. We also investigate the financial sustainability of the Golden Age and Neoliberal growth regimes within our framework. It is shown that distributional changes between the Golden Age and the Neoliberal regimes, together with corresponding changes in consumption emulation behavior via expenditure cascades, suffice to make the Neoliberal growth regime unsustainable.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Economic Growth, Economic Theory, Profit, Sustainability, Models, and Consumption
Political Geography:
Global Focus

44. Working Paper Exploring the Concept of Homeostasis and Considering its Implications for Economics

Author:
Antonio Damasio and Hanna Damasio
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The reality of human homeostasis expands the views on preferences and rational choice that are part of traditionally conceived Homo economicus and casts doubts on economic models that depend only on an “invisible hand” mechanism. In its standard format, the concept of homeostasis refers to the ability, present in all living organisms, of continuously maintaining certain functional variables within a range of values compatible with survival. The mechanisms of homeostasis were originally conceived as strictly automatic and as pertaining only to the state of an organism’s internal environment. In keeping with this concept, homeostasis was, and still is, often explained by analogy to a thermostat: upon reaching a previously set temperature, the device commands itself to either suspend the ongoing operation (cooling or heating), or to initiate it, as appropriate. This traditional explanation fails to capture the richness of the concept and the range of circumstances in which it can be applied to living systems. Our goal here is to consider a more comprehensive view of homeostasis. This includes its application to systems in which the presence of conscious and deliberative minds, individually and in social groups, permits the creation of supplementary regulatory mechanisms aimed at achieving balanced and thus survivable life states but more prone to failure than the fully automated mechanisms. We suggest that an economy is an example of one such regulatory mechanism, and that facts regarding human homeostasis may be of value in the study of economic problems. Importantly, the reality of human homeostasis expands the views on preferences and rational choice that are part of traditionally conceived Homo economicus and casts doubts on economic models that depend only on an “invisible hand” mechanism.
Topic:
Economics, Regulation, Models, and Homeostasis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect- Foresight Analysis

Author:
Mariana Garcia-Schmidt
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
A prolonged period of extremely low nominal interest rates has not resulted in high inflation. This has led to increased interest in the “Neo-Fisherian” proposition according to which low nominal interest rates may themselves cause inflation to be lower. The fact that standard models of the effects of monetary policy have the property that perfect foresight equilibria in which the nominal interest rate remains low forever necessarily involve low inflation (at least eventually) might seem to support such a view. Here, however, we argue that such a conclusion depends on a misunderstanding of the circumstances under which it makes sense to predict the effects of a monetary policy commitment by calculating the perfect foresight equilibrium consistent with the policy. We propose an explicit cognitive process by which agents may form their expectations of future endogenous variables. Under some circumstances, such as a commitment to follow a Taylor rule, a perfect foresight equilibrium (PFE) can arise as a limiting case of our more general concept of reflective equilibrium, when the process of reflection is pursued sufficiently far. But we show that an announced intention to fix the nominal interest rate for a long enough period of time creates a situation in which reflective equilibrium need not resemble any PFE. In our view, this makes PFE predictions not plausible outcomes in the case of policies of the latter sort. According to the alternative approach that we recommend, a commitment to maintain a low nominal interest rate for longer should always be expansionary and inflationary, rather than causing deflation; but the effects of such “forward guidance” are likely, in the case of a long- horizon commitment, to be much less expansionary or inflationary than the usual PFE analysis would imply.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:
Global Focus

46. Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Author:
M. Hashem Pesaran
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross- sectionally dependent errors and illustrate, by means of Monte Carlo experiments, that they perform well in small samples. On the empirical side, using data on a sample of 40 countries (grouped into advanced and developing) over the 1965-2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth, once we account for the impact of global factors and their spillover effects. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative long-run effects of public debt build-up on output growth. Provided that public debt is on a downward trajectory, a country with a high level of debt can grow just as fast as its peers.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Economic Growth, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
Global Focus

47. Social Interaction Models and Keynes’ Macroeconomics

Author:
Duncan Foley
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The central concepts of Keynes’ macroeconomic theories concerning the behavior of labor markets, aggregate demand, and asset pricing can be formulated as special cases of a general social interaction model. In its simplest form this model analyzes a system of interacting identical agents, each of whom controls the level of an action, and all of whom have the same utility functions trading off the effort required by the action with the monetary incentives for it. When the incentives include an interaction term involving the action levels of the other agents, the equilibrium outcome is in general Pareto-inefficient for the interacting agents, and multiple equilibria are possible. The expectations that lie at the heart of Keynes’ conception of macroeconomic equilibrium concern the behavior of other individuals rather than concrete forecasts of the concrete path of prices.
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Microeconomics, Keynes, and Behavior
Political Geography:
Global Focus

48. Information and Economics: A New Way to Think About Expectations and to Improve Economic Prediction.

Author:
David Tuckett, Paul Ormerod, Rickard Nyman, and Robert Elliot Smith
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
The largely unexpected arrival of the global economic crisis and the largely unpredicted slowness of the recovery from the Great Recession should be precipitating an intellectual crisis across economics and policy making. We require additional theories and additional methods to detect how an economy is evolving and to provide the basis for policy intervention (Haldane, 2014).
Topic:
Economics, Inequality, Microeconomics, and Behavior
Political Geography:
Global Focus

49. Twisting the economic tale: what literature can do that political economy can’t

Author:
Sara Thornton
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
This paper will address the problem of how we might gain economic understanding from literature. It will look at the aesthetic form of literature as being an efficient vehicle for economic thinking.
Topic:
Economics, Political Economy, Culture, Inequality, History, and Literature
Political Geography:
Global Focus

50. Board Gender Diversity, Audit Fees and Auditor Choice

Author:
Judy Tsui
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Using a sample of U.S. firms spanning 2001-2011, we examine whether female directors (female audit committee members) affect audit quality in terms of audit effort and auditor choice. After correcting for endogeneity and other board, firm and industry characteristics, we find that firms with gender-diverse boards pay higher audit fees and are more likely to choose specialist auditors compared to their peers. Our findings suggest that boards with female directors are likely to demand higher audit quality, ceteris paribus.
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Race, Culture, Inequality, Diversity, Private Sector, and Audit
Political Geography:
Global Focus