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Begin New Search Topic Conflict Resolution Political Geography South Asia Content Type Working Paper Publishing Institution German Institute of Global and Area Studies

1. The Consequences of Failed Mediation in Civil Wars: Assessing the Sri Lankan Case

Author:
Sandra Destradi and Johannes Vüllers
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
While mediation efforts in violent conflicts often fail, the academic literature on mediation has long ignored both this phenomenon and its consequences. This paper aims to fill this significant knowledge gap by examining the conditions under which the failure of mediation leads to an escalation of civil war. Based on the literature on bargaining, we argue that the degree of negotiability of the conflict parties' strategic objectives, as well as the relative weight of hardliners and moderates within those conflict parties, influence the likelihood of escalation after mediation failure. A plausibility test carried out for Norway's failed mediation in the Sri Lankan civil war confirms the usefulness of our model. In particular, the suspension of negotiations in April 2003 led to a shift towards less negotiable strategic objectives for both conflict parties and to a strengthening of hardliners within the government. This contributed to the escalation of the conflict, up to its eventual termination in May 2009.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Civil War, Diplomacy, Terrorism, and Sectarian violence
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

2. India and the Civil War in Sri Lanka: On the Failures of Regional Conflict Management in South Asia

Author:
Sandra Destradi
Publication Date:
12-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
The paper provides an assessment of India's role in the final years of the civil war in Sri Lanka (2003-2009). In particular, it looks for explanations for India's inability to act as a conflict manager in its own region, which is in contrast to predominant assumptions about the role of powerful regional states. It also seeks to explain the surprising turn in India's approach to the conflict, when in 2007 New Delhi began to rather explicitly support the Sri Lankan government—in disregard of its traditional preference for a peaceful solution and its sensitivity for the fate of Sri Lankan Tamils. While historical and domestic pressures led to India's indecisive approach during the years 2003-2007, starting from 2007 regional and international factors—most notably the skillful diplomacy of the Sri Lankan government and the growing Chinese presence there—induced New Delhi to support the government side in order to keep some leverage on Sri Lankan affairs. The analysis of the Sri Lankan case opens several avenues for further research in the fields of regional conflict management and foreign policy analysis.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
China, South Asia, India, and New Delhi