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2. Why Elections Won’t Happen in Libya
- Author:
- Asma Khalifa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The 2021 agreement on holding elections was perceived by many Libyans as the light at the end of the dark tunnel of civil war and a reset to the political stagnation and the legal crisis. More than 2.5 million Libyans registered to vote, only for them to watch on the media a deliberate sabotage by those who were trusted in the process to commit to the agreement. While Libya is again setting the ground for future elections, this paper puts forward three points on why elections will not happen in Libya.
- Topic:
- Government, Democracy, Conflict, and Voting
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Libya
3. Why Tunisia’s parliamentary electoral formula needs to be changed
- Author:
- Alexander Martin and John Carey
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In light of the current political situation in Tunisia, this paper suggests that to avoid producing fragmented parliaments, the Tunisian electoral law should be amended and the Hare Quota-Largest Remainders (HQLR) formula should be replaced. A switch to either the D’Hondt or St.Lague divisors formulas would produce clearer winners and losers and foster accountability while preserving the proportional representation (PR) system.
- Topic:
- Elections, Democracy, Legislation, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tunisia
4. From inside and outside: Palestinian youth reshaping old electoral systems
- Author:
- Andrew Findell-Aghnatios and Tala Majzoub
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In preparation for the first national elections in over 10 years, large numbers of Palestinian youth mobilized both inside and outside traditional political structures to voice their demands. This paper examines the modalities of their mobilization, their approaches to political reform, and the barriers that impede their meaningful participation in local politics. It concludes with recommendations on how to ensure greater integration of youth in the Palestinian political sphere.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Elections, Democracy, Youth, Participation, and Mobilization
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
5. Iraq’s New Electoral Law: Old Powers Adapting to Change
- Author:
- Omar Al-Jaffal
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In December 2019, the Iraqi parliament approved a new electoral law following demonstrations calling for fundamental political change. However, it took over 11 months for the president to ratify it as Iraq’s political parties fought over the shape of electoral districts. This article examines the disputes that surrounded the adoption of the law and the compromises that led to diluting its potential for reform. It concludes that while the new law represents a small step in the right direction, it ultimately is insufficient to respond to the aspirations of protestors looking for an overhaul of their political representation.
- Topic:
- Reform, Elections, Democracy, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
6. The Role of Petitions in Strengthening Citizens’ Participation in Morocco: Stakes and Outcomes
- Author:
- Aberrafie Zaanoun
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Morocco’s 2011 Constitution introduced the right to petition public authorities as a tool to encourage and enhance citizens’ participation in the political process. This paper assesses the Moroccan experience by analysing the petitioning process, its constraints, and the opportunities it offers for advancing public interest. It also suggests recommendations to ensure petitions become a more effective role in entrenching participatory democracy in Morocco.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Reform, Democracy, Protests, and Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Morocco
7. Hirak and Feminism: An equation with two unknowns
- Author:
- Lydia Haddag
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The history of the feminist movement and democratic struggle is that of a crossover. In Algeria, feminism is still perceived as a minority movement; neither the regime nor the opposition gathered under the Hirak seems interested in supporting it. Often subsumed within greater calls for democracy, feminists find themselves a target for slander and accusations of division. This paper explores the interlinkages between the Hirak and feminism and explains how the two can be one movement with a common goal.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Social Movement, Democracy, and Feminism
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Algeria
8. Constitutional or Unconstitutional: Is That the Question?
- Author:
- Eya Jrad
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- On 25 July 2021, Tunisian President Kais Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and froze the Assembly of the Representatives of the People, creating a constitutional crisis in a country already embattled by dire COVID-19 conditions. This paper aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on the constitutionality of the measures taken by Kais Saied, by examining both the text of the Constitution and the context to argue that a contextual interpretation is needed in order to adjust to the dynamic nature of societies.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Constitution, State Formation, Legislation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tunisia
9. Has Tunisia’s Democracy Failed to Convince its Youth? The Slow-Going of Democratic Socialization
- Author:
- Sarah Anne Rennick
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Tunisia’s current political crisis marks perhaps the most faltering moment in the process of democratic consolidation since 2013. This paper looks at the microcosm of Tunisian youth, and in particular those in marginalized governorates that have not benefited in socio-economic terms from the transition to democracy. It shows that political socialization over the last 10 years has so far failed to produce widespread democratic attitudes and explores the implications for the consolidation of democracy in the country.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Democracy, Youth, and Participation
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tunisia
10. The “New Algeria” Parliament and the Illusion of Change from Within
- Author:
- Adel Ourabah
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Algeria’s June parliamentary elections were the first since the start of the Hirak and Tebboune’s presidency. Despite being promoted as a panacea for the country’s structural crises, and an opportunity for the Hirak to integrate elected bodies, they were marred by very low turnout and failed to renew the political class in Algeria. This paper analyzes the key features of these elections and explores the options they put before the government’s future political plans.
- Topic:
- Politics, Democracy, Legislation, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Algeria
11. Sudan: Have the Juba and Addis Ababa Agreements Untangled the Dichotomy between Religion and the State?
- Author:
- Abdelkhalig Shaib
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The place of religion in Sudan’s state has divided the country since its independence. In September, the transitional government agreed to separate religion and state, in an attempt to end the decades-long contention. Against the backdrop of past constitutional failures to adequately recognize and address Sudan’s diversity, this paper examines the implications of the recent Juba and Addis Ababa agreements in the country’s efforts to build a civil democratic state and the challenges ahead.
- Topic:
- Religion, Democracy, State, State Building, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
12. Algeria: Inventing New Political Rules
- Author:
- Rachid Tlemçani
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- As of 22 February 2019, a new chapter of Algeria’s history is being written, one which will establish a new relationship between Algerian citizens and their state. On that day, against all odds, tens of thousands of Algerians, regardless of gender, age, social or professional background, converged on cities and villages to voice their rejection of a fifth term for Abdelaziz Bouteflika in the forthcoming presidential elections. To the call of General Ahmed Gaïd Salah, the army’s chief of staff, to remove President Bouteflika as per Article 102 of the Constitution, and Bouteflika’s subsequent resignation on 2 April, Algerians responded with an even stronger mobilization and their own call, “Système, dégage!”
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Democracy, Protests, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, North Africa, Mediterranean, and Algeris
13. Sudan’s Power-Sharing Agreement: Towards Transition or a Game of Tajility?
- Author:
- Magdi El-Gizouli
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- With Sudanese protesters still shouting “Madaniyya” (civilian), only time will tell if the recently signed power-sharing accord will be a true step in the direction towards democratic transition or simply another manoeuvre in Sudan’s longstanding tradition of “tajility” and unfulfilled promises.
- Topic:
- Social Movement, Democracy, Protests, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, North Africa, and Khartoum
14. The Tunisian Experience of Decentralization Since 2014
- Author:
- Lotfi Tarchouna
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- In order for decentralization to be effective and lead to greater equality in development and political engagement, both processes of codification (i.e. enshrining provisions in the constitution) and operationalization must be guided by strong legal and political foundations, principles and structures. The paper discusses the Tunisian experience of decentralization since the adoption of the 2014 Constitution that described the Tunisian state as a unitary state and enshrined administrative decentralization, thus consolidating the Tunisian decentralized state. It argues that after the fall of Ben Ali, decentralization was seen as a way to preserve the integrity of the unitary state in Tunisia while introducing instruments of participative democracy through a reinvigorated decentralization process. First, it presents the legal and political foundations for decentralization and the new structures that were set up to implement it. Second, the paper addresses the fiscal and logistical challenges of implementation, the importance of collective civil society engagement in decentralized structures and concludes with recommendations and lessons learned from this experience in a country that recently experienced democratic transition.
- Topic:
- Democracy, State Building, Decentralization, and Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, Mediterranean, and Tunis
15. A Safe Path for Democratic Decentralization in Syria
- Author:
- Bassma Kodmani
- Publication Date:
- 07-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Before the Syrian uprising morphed into a full-scale war, Syria was probably the most authoritarian regime in the Arab region, unequalled in the scale of its repressive practices except by the Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein. Authoritarianism is hardly compatible with decentralization. An authoritarian government’s key concern is to spread the tentacles of its surveillance apparatus across all regions in order to exert full control over the lives of the citizens. A process of decentralization – in which power is genuinely devolved – is practically impossible, therefore, in an authoritarian system of governance. Yet equating centralization with authoritarianism and decentralization with democracy is an assertion that deserves discussion. Some democracies have functioned in a highly centralized manner. Perhaps, one of the best-known examples is France (on which the Syrian state was modelled) that remained highly centralized since the early days of the state formation almost 1000 years ago. The French revolution of 1789 upheld freedom and equality and announced a democratic system. The very idea of decentralization was rejected at the time in the name of equality understood as uniformity. Yet even France found it necessary to engage in some form of decentralization. Since the early 1980s, it engaged in a process of decentralization, mainly for administrative and financial efficiency. Although it continued to consider identity politics as dangerous for the unity of the nation, it was forced to concede to one particular identity-driven demand, that of the Corsicans, by designing a special status for the island.1 And decentralized systems do not necessarily produce democratic or more representative systems. Mexico is a case in point. Although it was always a federation, its political system remained a one-party rule for some seventy years before it transitioned to democracy in the early 2000s. Decentralization and democracy are, therefore, not inherently inseparable. However, a centralized system, even if democratic, inevitably reduces and often denies the specific identity of certain groups within society. It might operate in a democratic manner when national identity is homogeneous, but the world is composed of states where homogeneity is an exception. In diverse societies such as those of the Middle Eastern countries, centralization together with the demagogic discourse of authoritarian regimes using national cohesion as a pretext and brandishing foreign interference as a permanent threat, have served to deny diversity and basic rights of both individual citizens and specific communities. Syrian society faces a historic challenge and possibly an existential one: it needs to craft a model of decentralization as part of a new social contract while its national institutions are all but failing and its regional environment challenges the integrity of its territory and its sovereignty. Given the uncertainty shrouding the future of Syria, the paper is organized in two parts. The first lays out the discussion about decentralization based on the current reality of the Syrian regime in a scenario in which it regains control after having lived through nine years of gradual foundering of state institutions. The second part considers options for a new decentralized order in a context of democratic political transition. This is not to say that the first option is viable while the second is an ideal order for a fictitious future. On the contrary, the paper shows that the destruction of state institutions is a reality and a consequence of the conflict, that violence and other forms of resistance will continue, and that peace cannot be brought to the country under the existing political system. The second option is, therefore, a necessity which Syrians will need to define with the support of the international community. The paper lays out the process with concrete steps for achieving democratic decentralization.
- Topic:
- Fragile/Failed State, Democracy, Decentralization, and Regionalism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and Damascus
16. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?
- Author:
- Souha Drissi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis
17. Who are the Candidates in Tunisia’s 2019 Presidential Elections?
- Author:
- Souha Drissi
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- With the death of President Beji Caid Essebsi on 25 July, Tunisia’s presidential elections were moved up and will be held on 15 September 2019. By the end of the eight-day process of accepting nominations – from 2 to 9 August – the Independent High Authority for Elections (IHAE) had received 971 requests for nomination which include 75 independents and 11 female candidates. On 31 August, the IHAE released the final list of candidates for the presidential race, accepting 26 nominees, including two women, and rejecting 71 applications for failing to meet candidacy requirements. The IHAE is considered one of the achievements of the 2011 Revolution. It is a nine-member permanent body based in Tunis which enjoys administrative and financial independence. Its mission is to “ensure democratic, pluralistic, fair and transparent elections and referendums”2 and supervise and oversee all related processes. The election campaigns started on 2 September and will continue until 13 September, with 17 September as the deadline for the announcement of the preliminary election results and 21 October for the announcement of the final results. In case of no absolute majority vote, a second round will be held after two weeks.3
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and State Building
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, and Tunis
18. Tunisia’s Upcoming Challenge: Fixing the Economy Before It's Too Late
- Author:
- Ishac Diwan
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- During its first years of transition to a democratic order, Tunisia's efforts were predominantly focused on addressing political challenges. The performance of the country in this regard has been generally positive, as it has managed to consolidate democratic gains despite challenges related to the polarization of politics around identity and religious issues, the rise in insecurity related to attacks by extremist groups, and even the general disenchantment of voters for the existing political elites. However, the gains on the political front came at the expense of economic setbacks. One of the main challenges for the coming period will thus be largely economic. High unemployment, unfulfilled demands for social justice, the rise in corruption, and most importantly in the short term, an unsustainable macroeconomic trajectory, all threaten to upset recent political gains. If the upcoming administration does not address them, social discontent would endanger the hard-won democratic gains.
- Topic:
- Religion, Social Movement, Democracy, and Economic Policy
- Political Geography:
- Africa, North Africa, Tunisia, Mediterranean, and Tunis
19. A Strong Central State: A Prerequisite for Effective Local Governance in Yemen
- Author:
- Osamah Al-Rawhani
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- Local governance has been viewed by academics, analysts and some political leaders in Yemen as a panacea to redress the excessive control of the central government, bring the state closer to its citizens and provide those citizens with socio-economic and political stability. Federalism, as a form of local governance, was adopted at the end of the National Dialogue Conference in 2013-2014, although there were disagreements over the number of regions and the federal map. It was posited as a viable vehicle for power-sharing and decentralization in Yemen and is considered a likely outcome after the conflict. However, there are several prerequisites for the effective devolution of power that are not yet in place in Yemen, most prominently the existence of strong consolidated central institutions. In short: it is a mistake to view federalism as a means of achieving stability, rather than a future goal once stability has been achieved.
- Topic:
- Democracy, State Formation, Decentralization, and Federalism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Sana'a
20. The Crisis of The Algerian Presidential Elections: Candidates, Stakes, and Scenarios
- Author:
- Redouane Boudjemaa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- On 17 November, the presidential campaign, which the Algerian authorities insist on organizing on 12 December, officially started. This is despite opposition from large segments of Algerians, expressed through rallies across the majority of provinces in Algeria. These protests strongly express the widely held perception amongst the protesters that the upcoming elections will only renew the system (le pouvoir) and anchor the survival of the military regime imposed on the country since 1962. Two prominent slogans sum up this refusal, across all the protests, "no election with the gangs", highlighting the corruption of the regime, evident through the presence of the figures from the era of the resigned/removed president Bouteflika. The other slogan is, "Civilian, not a military, state", meaning that the protesters demand the building of a civilian state, not a military one. It is this slogan that confirms the necessity of breaking, on an epistemological level, with the militarization and securitization on which the political regime was built since Algeria’s independence from France in July 1962. Departing from an attempt to understand the popular movement’s refusal of the 12 December elections, and the authorities’ rigidity to impose its will and pass the election by force, this paper tries to analyze the trajectories of the five candidates in the election, the calculations of the authority, and those of the popular movement, before moving on to some likely scenarios in case the authorities succeeded, or failed, to impose the ballots.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Election watch, Protests, and Military Government
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Algeria, North Africa, and Algeris
21. The Lebanese Legislative Elections: Fragmentation and Polarization
- Author:
- Nayla Moussa
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- On 6 May 2018, Lebanon had its first legislative elections in nine years. But what was celebrated as a “victory for democracy” may have been merely a game of musical chairs between existing political actors. The elections may even be seen as a setback, with the return of major figures from the era under Syrian presence. For Lebanon, simply holding the elections – considered routine in most democracies – was seen as a victory. Parliament had extended its mandate three times since the last elections in 2009. Many obstacles had prevented the elections from taking place including the fragile security balance; the war in Syria and its polarization of Lebanese politics support for the Assad regime; the direct involvement of Hezbollah in Syria; and finally, a lack of consensus between major political parties and figures on a new electoral law. This last issue was the most crucial as the 2018 law emerged as a mix of elements designed to please all parties. Its key tenets were proportional representation and a division of electoral districts that satisfied most political actors. This paper explores the lessons learned from these elections and analyzes specific points such as the electoral law, political debate, and post-election perspectives.
- Topic:
- Religion, Social Movement, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, Syria, and Beirut
22. Islamists and Human Rights in Morocco
- Author:
- Mohamed Wazif
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
- Abstract:
- The spectacular political rise of Islamist forces in several Arab countries over the past few years was one of the outcomes of the Arab spring, which included a massive protest movement in Morocco in 2011. This rise, accompanied by several radical and extremist manifestations, raised concerns among civil and political actors about power-sharing and the future of democracy and human rights at this pivotal stage in the history of a people who had recently come to reject many forms of tyranny and oppression. A history of confrontations between Islamists and human rights activists intensified these concerns. This paper examines the relationship between Morocco’s Islamists and the human rights movement through the most prominent historical milestones and controversies. It illustrates the dynamics and evolution of how Islamists operated within the human rights discourse from positions within government or in civil society organizations.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Social Movement, Democracy, and Arab Spring
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, Morocco, and Rabat